如何押注（几乎）任何事物

来自《纽约时报》，我是纳塔莉·基特罗夫。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

似乎一夜之间，美国出现了大量新的博彩平台，极大地扩展了赌博的范围。

Seemingly overnight, America has seen an explosion of new betting platforms that have radically expanded the universe of gambling.

它们被称为预测市场。

They're called prediction markets.

它们让你可以对各种事情下注，比如，美国会攻击伊朗吗？

They let you bet on all kinds of things, like, will The US attack Iran?

总统会说出哪些具体的言辞？

What specific words will the president say?

泰勒·斯威夫特的婚礼上会有谁？

And who will be at Taylor Swift's wedding?

今天，我的同事大卫·亚费·贝利尼解释了这些平台为何如此迅速地普及，以及对一切事物下注如何改变我们的生活方式。

Today, my colleague David Yaffe Bellini explains how these platforms became so widespread so fast and how betting on everything could change the way we live.

今天是2月4日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, February 4.

大卫，很高兴你来到演播室。

David, it's wonderful to have you here in studio.

非常感谢你邀请我。

Thanks so much for having me.

我们之所以联系你，是因为你报道加密货币，这常常让你接触到互联网最边缘的角落。

So we are coming to you because you cover crypto, which can often lead you to the nichest corners of the Internet.

我总觉得你负责的是边缘资本主义领域。

I kinda think of you as having a fringe capitalism beat.

这么说合适吗？

Is that fair?

差不多就是这样。

That sounds about right.

好的。

Okay.

你一直在研究这些预测市场，我对此有一堆问题。

And you've been looking into these prediction markets, which I have a million questions about.

但在深入这些问题之前，我想请你先为不了解这些概念的人做个基本介绍。

But before we get into those questions, I want you to first just lay out for people who don't know these things.

它们是什么？

What are they?

这些市场究竟是什么？

What are these markets?

从最宏观的角度来看，预测市场是一个你可以对几乎所有事情下注的平台。

At a really high level, a prediction market is a platform where you can bet on pretty much everything.

大多数人对体育博彩都很熟悉，甚至包括如今这种高级形式的体育博彩，比如下注某位球员是否会罚进一个投篮。

Most people are familiar with sports betting, even the sort of advanced sports betting that we get these days where you're betting on, like, whether a player will make a free throw.

预测市场则将这一概念扩展到了政治和文化的各个角落。

Prediction markets expand that idea into all corners of politics and culture.

你可以下注特朗普是否会赢得选举。

You can bet on whether Trump will win the election.

你可以赌泰勒·斯威夫特结婚的日期。

You can bet on the date of Taylor Swift's wedding.

哇。

Wow.

你甚至可以赌伊朗最高领袖能否活到月底。

You can even bet on whether the supreme leader of Iran will make it to the end of the month.

所以，它实际上把这种赌博心态扩展到了我们日常生活的方方面面。

So what it's done is sort of expanded that kind of gambling mentality to all sorts of parts of our daily existence.

核心理念就是随时随地对一切下注。

The idea is betting on everything everywhere all at once.

没错。

Exactly.

现在，尤其是年轻人，像刷抖音或Instagram一样登录手机，对选举、流行文化，甚至几乎所有事情下注。

And now you've got people, especially young people, logging on to their phones the same way they might use TikTok or Instagram and placing bets on on elections, on pop culture, really on everything.

这些平台有可能彻底改变人们看待和理解世界的方式。

These platforms have the potential to really change the way that people interact with the world, the way they think about the world.

你知道，现在每件事都有个价格。

You know, everything now has a price.

每件事都可以用它发生的概率或不发生的概率来表达。

Everything can be communicated in terms of the odds that it will happen or it won't happen.

我认为我们已经看到一些迹象，表明这正在某种程度上改变人们的现实。

And I think we're already seeing signs that that's sort of altering reality for people.

没错。

Right.

而且确实感觉这些东西好像是突然冒出来的。

And it does feel that this stuff has kind of come out of nowhere.

我是不是可以认为，这些市场从原本非常边缘化，突然间变成了许多文化与政治事件的前沿？

Am I right to think that these markets went from being quite marginal to suddenly being at the forefront of a lot of cultural and political events?

在某种程度上，确实如此。

To some extent, that's right.

再往前推两三年，根本没人谈论预测市场。

Go back even two or three years ago, and no one was really talking about prediction markets.

但如果你再退远一点看，现在发生的事情实际上是自2018年开始的一个趋势的顶点。

But if you zoom out a little further, what's happening now is really the culmination of a trend that started back in 2018.

今天美国最高法院的一项裁决为合法体育博彩的大幅扩张打开了大门。

A US Supreme Court ruling today has opened the door to a dramatic expansion of legal sports betting.

那时最高法院推翻了一项实际上禁止美国大部分体育博彩的法律。

That's when the supreme court overturned a US law that had effectively banned most sports betting in The US.

一旦这项法律被裁定违宪，我们就看到了一场赌博热潮的爆发。

Once that law was ruled unconstitutional, we saw a sort of avalanche of gambling.

博彩业称这一裁决具有开创性，将彻底改变博彩业。

The gaming industry is calling this a groundbreaking decision that will revolutionize the gambling business.

对。

Right.

这是一个重要的时刻。

This was a huge moment.

是的。

Yeah.

这规模巨大。

It was enormous.

此外，DraftKings宣布将在所有选择合法化的州进入合法博彩市场。

Also, DraftKings announcing that it will enter the legal betting atmosphere throughout states that choose to legalize it.

所以我们现在仍然

So we're still

全美各地的体育博彩公司逐州争取获得提供服务的许可，突然间人们可以通过手机进行赌博。

Sports gambling companies across the country went state by state getting permission to offer their services, and suddenly people could gamble from their phones.

这在美国是一次巨大的变革。

And this was a huge transformation in The US.

我的意思是，在其他国家，这种赌博一直存在，但在美国却并不现实。

I mean, other in countries, there's sort of always been this type of gambling, but it wasn't really possible in The US.

以前你只能秘密地进行。

It was something you had to do in a clandestine way.

对。

Right.

突然间，这一切都摆在了明面上，营销规模也极其庞大。

And suddenly, it was all happening out in the open, and the marketing was enormous.

你根本躲不开。

You couldn't avoid it.

好的。

Okay.

所以，最高法院的这项裁决主要影响了体育博彩，听起来是这样。

So that SCOTUS decision mostly affected sports betting, it sounds like.

那它对预测市场意味着什么？

What did it mean then for prediction markets?

在某种程度上，这并没有直接关联，因为从法律上讲，这项裁决与预测市场毫无关系。

On some level, it's not directly related because legally, this decision didn't have anything to do with prediction markets.

但它创造了一种文化氛围，使赌博和投注在美国彻底被接受了。

But it created this cultural moment where suddenly gambling, betting was totally accepted in The US.

它以一种前所未有的方式渗透进了美国人的意识中。

It had sort of injected itself into the American consciousness in a way that had never happened before.

就在这个背景下，一位名叫肖恩·科佩兰的年轻创业者创办了一家名为Polymarket的公司，如今已成为该领域的领军者之一。

And it was in that context that a young entrepreneur named Shane Copeland started a company called Polymarket, which has become one of the leaders in this area.

好的。

Okay.

那请你讲讲科佩兰创办这家公司的故事吧。

So tell me the story of Copeland founding this company.

他最初的想法是什么？

What's his idea for it in the beginning?

科佩兰是一位年轻的创业者。

Copeland's this young entrepreneur.

他在纽约大学读了一个学期后就退学了。

He spends one semester at NYU before dropping out.

哇。

And Wow.

他有着非常技术背景。

He has this super techy background.

他对加密货币非常感兴趣。

He was really interested in cryptocurrencies.

他从小就对市场有一种书呆子般的痴迷。

He had kind of a nerdy fascination with markets from a pretty young age.

他为Polymarket提出的想法实际上非常崇高。

And the idea he had for Polymarket was actually quite high minded.

这个想法诞生于2020年，也就是新冠疫情刚开始的几个月。

It came in 2020, just a few months into the COVID pandemic.

真正的转折点发生在新冠疫情期间，当时

What really was the the tipping point was during coronavirus, there

有太多不同的观点和

was so many different opinions and

太多预测给出了完全不同的说法。

so many forecasts that said entirely different things.

就像是

Was like

那时，大量信息在四处流传。

It was a time when a lot of information was swirling around.

确诊病例数不断波动，病毒的新变种不断出现。

There was fluctuating case numbers, emerging variants of the virus.

许多人觉得，面对这些混乱的统计数据，很难理清头绪。

And a lot of people felt like it was hard to make sense of the confusing swirl of statistics.

当存在大量相互冲突的观点、信息和意见时，市场是一种将这些信息提炼为一个准确事实、指标或信号的方式。

And, effectively, when you've got lots of conflicting viewpoints and information and opinions, a market is a way to distill that information into one accurate fact or indicator or signal.

因此，在科佩兰看来，预测市场可以帮助澄清这种混乱。

So in Copeland's mind, prediction markets could help clarify this confusion.

这不仅仅是一种让人们对各种事情下注的方式。

It's not just a way for people to gamble on everything.

对他来说，Polymarket 是关于在这个世界上创造一种新的信息来源。

To him, polymarket is about creating a new source of information in the world.

我们是市场导向新闻理念的传道者，致力于通过利用市场帮助人们做出更好的决策。

We are missionaries for the concepts of market based journalism and helping people make better decisions by leveraging markets.

这一切都基于一个长期在学术界研究、在金融圈讨论的理念：通过众包信息，可以比任何单一专家得出更准确的未来预测。

And it's all based on an idea that has long been studied in academia, discussed in financial circles, that crowdsourcing information could produce more accurate projections about the future than what any individual expert might come up with.

因此，这里的核心理念是，预测市场所提供的真相与知识来源，实际上可以成为传统媒体的补充，甚至替代。

So the idea here is that the source of truth and knowledge that prediction markets are offering could actually become a complement or even a replacement for things like traditional media.

你拥有了一种公共产品，它就像一个实时、无偏见信息的圣地，你进入Polymarket，就能直接看到，哦，这件事在未来发生的概率是多少。

You have this public good that's like a mecca of real time unbiased information, where you go in Polymarket and you can just see, oh, this is what, you know, the odds of this happening are in the future.

有意思。

Interesting.

听起来他觉得，这些预测市场之所以可能比传统媒体更准确，部分原因在于它们采用了众包方式。

It sounds like he's thinking that these could be more accurate sources of information than traditional media in part because it's crowdsourcing.

这不仅是众包，还是一个金融市场。

It's crowdsourcing, and it's also a financial market.

所以人们是真金白银地参与其中。

So people have skin in the game.

人们可以互相辩论，说：‘你错了，事情不是这样的。’

People can debate each other and be like, oh, you're wrong, this, this, that.

但真正让这种机制发挥作用的方式，是让人们把自己的钱押在自己的观点上。

But the way that those that really dissipates is when you let people put their money where their mouth is.

其理念在于，当人们把钱押上时，他们会说真话，或者有动力尽可能深入地研究自己的观点。

And the idea is that when people have money on the line, they tell the truth, or they're incentivized to research their opinions as thoroughly as possible.

如果你能把这些全部整合起来，你就获得了一种惊人的新信息来源。

And if you can pull all that together, then you've got a kind of amazing new source of information.

所以科佩兰并不仅仅是在想把整个世界变成一个虚拟赌场。

So Copeland is not just thinking of turning the whole world into some kind of virtual casino here.

他设想的是，这可以作为一种揭示世界真相、收集和传播信息的工具？

He's imagining this as a tool for revealing things about the world, for gathering and disseminating information?

当然。

Absolutely.

好的。

Okay.

到目前为止，我觉得我们需要彻底理解这个市场是如何运作的，投注机制是怎样的。

At this point, I feel like we need to understand exactly how this market works, how the betting works.

你能给我详细解释一下吗？

Can you walk me through that?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个好问题。

This is a good question.

很多人并不完全理解它。

A lot of people don't fully understand it.

预测市场本质上是一系列是非问题。

Prediction markets are essentially a series of yes or no questions.

所以，如果你登录Polymarket网站，你会看到类似这样的问题：伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？

So if you log on to the Polymarket website, you will see questions like, will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

如果你想对此下注，你就购买一种被称为事件合约的东西。

And if you wanna bet on that, you buy what's known as an event contract.

事件合约。

An event contract.

是的

Yeah.

而这就是这些问题是“是”选项或“否”选项的地方。

And that's the yes option or the no option on any of these questions.

好的。

Okay.

而这些“是”或“否”合约的价格总是在0到1美元之间波动。

And the cost of those contracts of a yes or of a no always fluctuates between $0 and $1.

这个价格本质上反映了市场上那些投注者对事件走向的预期。

And that price is essentially a reflection of what the market of betters out there think is going to happen.

所以，如果伊朗政权倒台的“是”选项报价是20美分，那就意味着政权倒台的可能性大约是20%。

So if the yes option on the Iranian regime falling is going for 20¢, then that means there's about a 20% likelihood of the regime falling.

购买这份合约的成本相对较低，因为投注者群体普遍认为这种情况不太可能发生。

It's relatively cheap to buy that contract because the universe of betters thinks it's relatively unlikely that this will happen.

没错。

Exactly.

当事件最终发生或不发生时， payouts 就会兑现。

And then the payout arrives when the event either definitively happens or doesn't happen.

如果政权真的垮台了，而你以20美分的价格购买了‘是’合约，并且正确预测了结果，那么合约的价值会上涨到1美元，你就能获得赔付。

So if the regime does fall and you bought that yes contract at 20¢ and you correctly predicted what would happen, then the contract rises in value to $1, and you get your payout.

是的。

Mhmm.

由于这类似于一种金融市场，因此它受到的监管不同于传统的体育博彩。

And because this resembles a kind of financial market, it falls under a different type of regulation than traditional sportsbooks.

体育博彩由各州进行监管。

Sportsbooks are regulated by the states.

各州有针对赌博的法律，而预测市场则由联邦层面的金融监管机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）进行监管。

There are state laws governing gambling, and the prediction markets instead are regulated at the federal level by a financial agency called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC.

这里的理念是，CFTC 应当保护预测市场免受滥用行为的侵害。

And the idea here is that the CFTC should be protecting against abuses in the realm of prediction markets.

内幕交易就是一个简单的例子，还有市场操纵，这些都可能威胁到金融市场的完整性。

Insider trading is an easy example of that or market manipulation, things that could threaten the integrity of a financial market.

但科佩兰并没有走那条路。

But Copeland didn't go down that path.

最初，他没有向商品期货交易委员会注册Polymarket。

Initially, he didn't register polymarket with the CFTC.

这在一定程度上符合科技行业‘快速行动，打破常规’的作风。

And that's sort of in line with the kind of move fast and break things ethos of the tech industry.

对。

Right.

先行动，再请求原谅的运营方式。

The ask for forgiveness, not permission style of operating.

没错。

Exactly.

科佩兰采取了类似的做法。

And Copeland was taking a similar approach.

但最终，这让他陷入了大量麻烦。

But ultimately, that got him into a lot of trouble.

2022年，商品期货交易委员会对Polymarket处以140万美元的罚款。

In 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1,400,000.

作为这一法律和解的一部分，科佩兰必须同意Polymarket不得在美国运营。

And as part of that legal settlement, Copeland had to agree that Polymarket wouldn't operate in The United States.

它只对外国用户开放。

It's only open to foreign users.

那么，为什么科佩兰会同意这一点呢？

And why does Copeland agree to that?

我的意思是，这对这样的公司来说听起来像是致命一击。

I mean, that sounds like a potential death knell for a company like this.

嗯，美国的法律环境非常复杂。

Well, the legal landscape in The US was complicated.

因此，在某种程度上，尝试在美国境外碰碰运气可能反而风险更低。

And so on some level, it might have seemed actually less risky to sort of try its luck outside of The US.

但这件事的另一个关键是，当时存在一个规避方法。

But the other element to this is that there was a workaround.

如果有人真的想在美国境内使用Polymarket，他们可以下载一个VPN（虚拟私人网络），从而让网站误以为他们是从其他国家登录的。

If someone really wanted to use Polymarket from inside The United States, they could download a a VPN, a virtual private network, and essentially trick the website into thinking that they were logging on from another country.

是的。

Right.

这样做起来非常简单。

And this was extremely easy to do.

我接触过很多这样做过的人。

I've spoken to many people who did it.

我至少采访过一位前Polymarket员工，他告诉我，办公室里大家心照不宣，都知道有人在这么做。

I've spoken to at least one former polymarket employee who told me that it was sort of an open secret in the office that people were doing this.

这意味着这项针对美国的禁令在很大程度上只是理论上的。

And it meant that this US ban was largely theoretical.

那么到这个时候，我们知道到底是谁在使用这个平台吗？

And at this point, do we know who's actually using this thing?

到目前为止，主要使用者还是那些对这类事情充满兴趣、带有极客情怀的技术爱好者。

At this point, it's still primarily a base of tech savvy people who are really interested in these things in kind of a nerdy way.

明白了。

Got it.

要使用 Polymarket，你必须使用加密货币。

To use Polymarket, you had to use cryptocurrencies.

所以你已经把自己限制在了一群习惯使用加密货币交易的人群中。

So you're already limiting yourself to a pool of people who are comfortable transacting in crypto.

在你的世界里。

In your world.

在我的世界里。

In my world.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你想在美国使用它，就必须知道如何使用 VPN。

And if you wanted to use it in The US, you had to know how to use a VPN.

所以这并不是说，任何可能感兴趣的人都能轻易使用它。

So it's not as if this was, you know, freely available to anyone who might potentially be interested.

人们是否按照科佩兰设想的方式使用它，来创造新的信息来源，揭示那些在可以下注之前尚不明确的事情？

And are people using it in the way that Copeland imagined they would to kind of create new sources of information to illuminate things that maybe weren't clear before there was the potential to bet on them?

他们已经开始这样做了。

They are starting to do that.

它正变得越来越受欢迎。

It's gaining popularity.

它在不断增长。

It's growing.

它在媒体上获得了更多关注。

It's getting more attention in the media.

在2024年总统大选升温之际，这一点达到了顶峰。

And it really comes to a head in 2024 as the presidential election is heating up.

就在乔·拜登那场灾难性的辩论之后的夏天，人们开始广泛猜测拜登是否会退出竞选。

And it starts that summer after Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance when there's all kinds of speculation about whether Biden will drop out of the race.

突然间，Polymarket的用户开始对此下注。

And suddenly, users of Polymarket start betting on that.

当时，许多民主党评论员、专家、拜登政府，当然还有拜登本人，都说他不会退出。

At the time, many Democratic talking heads, pundits, the Biden administration, and, of course, Biden himself were saying he's not gonna drop out.

但博彩市场预测他会退出。

But the betting market projected that he would drop out.

所以当拜登最终真的退出时，这感觉像是对Polymarket的一种 vindication，也像是它可能为世界提供的前景的预演。

So when Biden eventually did, it felt like a moment of vindication for polymarket, and a sort of a preview of what it might offer to the world.

对。

Right.

因为我觉得Copeland会把这看作是一个概念验证。

Because I can imagine Copeland sees this as proof of concept.

你可以来这里获得我认为Copeland所认为的关于可能性的客观判断。

Here you can come and get what I presume Copeland views as an objective sense of the odds.

对。

Right.

当然，这并不是什么没人考虑过的问题，也不是说没有评论或预测认为这件事会发生。

And, of course, it's not like this was some question nobody was considering or that there wasn't punditry about it or people predicting that it would happen.

但Polymarket将所有这些信息汇总成一个数字，让你能大致感受到风向如何。

But Polymarket was a place where all of that was sort of consolidated into one number, and you could kind of get a sense of the way the wind was blowing.

而拜登是否会退选这一问题，为Polymarket铺垫了2024年大选的下一个重大议题——谁将赢得选举？

And that moment, that question of whether Biden will drop out, then sets Polymarket up for the next big question of the 2024 race, which, of course, is who's gonna win the election?

是哈里斯赢，还是特朗普赢？

Will it be Harris or will it be Trump?

但现在回想起来，感觉已经像是很久以前的事了。

And it feels like a really long time ago now.

但是

But

平局。

A tied race.

潜在选民中势均力敌，哈里斯47%，特朗普47%。

Dead heat among likely voters, 47% Harris, 47% Trump.

显然，情况不可能再更接近了。

It obviously doesn't get closer to that.

我想

And I wanna

回看那时，选情非常胶着。

show Back then, it was a close race.

民调显示两位候选人几乎势均力敌。

The polls showed that the two candidates were essentially neck and neck.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但Polymarket上的预测开始大幅转向特朗普有利的方向。

But the projections on polymarket started to shift heavily in Trump's favor.

显然，特朗普最终赢了。

And obviously, Trump did win.

这是预测市场和预测特朗普当选总统的精彩一夜。

Big night for prediction markets and calling president Trump elect as the winner at the polls.

这再次证明了科佩兰的远见。

And it was another moment of vindication for Copeland's sight.

对他来说，另一个例子表明，相比传统媒体来源，它是一个更可靠的预测工具，

Another example for him at least of it being a more reliable predictor than traditional media sources,

传统民调。

traditional polls.

没错。

Exactly.

正如自由市场的说法所说，像你在Polymarket上看到的那样，一个多元化的市场参与者群体，比任何单一专家都更准确。

As the saying of free markets goes, a diverse group of market participants like you see on Polymarket is more accurate than any given expert.

而这个例子特别引人入胜的地方在于，我们得以一窥这些预测是如何形成的。

And what was especially fascinating about this example is that we got kind of a peek under the hood at how these projections came about.

请记住，这些预测是金融市场的结果，而几笔大额交易就能显著改变一个金融市场的走向。

Now remember that these projections are the result of a financial market, and a few large trades can shift a financial market significantly.

在这种情况下，一位来自法国的富有的交易员主动表示，他下注了3000万美元，赌特朗普会赢得选举，而这一决定是基于他自己的深入研究。

And in this case, a wealthy trader in France came forward and said that he had made $30,000,000 in bets that Trump would win the election, and that this was based on his own careful research.

他甚至委托进行了自己的民调，哇。

He'd actually commissioned his own poll Wow.

因为他认为传统的美国民调具有误导性。

Because he thought the traditional US polling was misleading.

正是基于这种信念，他把所有资金都押在了特朗普身上，从而显著推高了Polymarket上特朗普获胜的概率。

And that just out of that conviction, he put all of this money on Trump, which effectively shifted the polymarket odds in Trump's favor.

这是一笔盈利的交易。

And it was a profitable play.

当特朗普赢得选举时，这位人士赚取了超过8500万美元的利润。

This guy made more than $85,000,000 in profits when Trump won the election.

人们开始称他为‘法国鲸鱼’。

People started calling him the French whale.

好的。

Okay.

所以显然，这位人士获得了巨额回报。

So obviously, a huge payout for this one guy.

你对这一时刻对市场本身意味着什么有何看法？

What do you make of this moment for the markets themselves?

这产生了巨大影响。

It had a huge impact.

突然间，这些原本处于金融体系边缘、仅获得少量关注的市场，开始引起注意。

Suddenly, these markets that had sort of operated on the margins of the financial system, getting some notice, but not a ton.

突然间，所有人都惊呼：哇。

Suddenly, everyone stands up and says, wow.

这些市场上的资金流动量巨大。

Huge amounts of money are changing hands on these things.

是的。

Mhmm.

我们真的必须认真对待它们。

We really have to take them seriously.

当然，科佩兰正在庆祝胜利。

And, of course, Copeland is taking a victory lap.

但很快我们了解到，就在这家公司迅速崛起、成为主流现象的整个过程中，它一直接受调查。

But soon we learn that this entire time, as the company has been blowing up, becoming a big mainstream phenomenon, they've been under investigation.

哇哦。

Woah.

事实上，选举刚结束不久，联邦调查局就突袭了科佩兰在纽约市的家。

In fact, shortly after the election, the FBI raids Copeland's home in New York City.

他们没收了他的手机，这是对Polymarket是否合法允许美国用户访问平台的调查的一部分。

They take his phone, and it's all part of an investigation into whether Polymarket is legally allowing US users to access the platform.

因此，在同一时刻，你看到了公众认可的时刻。

So at the same time, you've got this moment of public vindication.

同时，你也面临着一个非常棘手的法律困境——这个平台是否能在美利坚合众国继续生存尚不明确。

You also have this really fraught legal moment where it's not clear whether the platform can survive in The United States.

但对于科佩兰来说，隧道尽头有一线光明，那就是特朗普很快就要上任了。

But there's a light at the end of the tunnel for Copeland, which is that soon Trump is going to take office.

一旦他掌权，一切都会改变。

And as soon as he's in power, everything changes.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

交易全球金融市场并不容易。

Trading the world's financial markets isn't easy.

但交易可能具有挑战性，并不意味着你的经纪商也必须如此。

But just because trading can be tricky doesn't mean your broker has to be.

在capital.com，我们希望让您的交易体验尽可能顺畅。

At capital.com, we want to make your trading experience as painless as possible.

无论您是在我们的清晰易用平台上开立账户还是开仓，请立即访问capital.com，了解我们如何帮助您更聪明地交易。

Whether you're opening an account or opening a position on our clear user friendly platform, head to capital.com today and find out how we can help you trade smarter.

差价合约具有高风险。

CFDs involve a high level of risk.

83%的散户投资者亏损。

Eighty three percent of retail investors lose money.

我叫尼娜·菲尔德曼。

My name is Nina Feldman.

我是《每日新闻》的制片人。

I'm a producer on The Daily.

我最近参与了一期节目，讲述像司美格鲁肽这样的减肥药如何颠覆了一段婚姻。

I recently worked on an episode about how weight loss drugs like Ozempic turned a marriage upside down.

这个故事由丽莎·米勒报道。

This story was reported by Lisa Miller.

丽莎花了大量时间与这对夫妇相处。

Lisa spent so much time with this couple.

她建立了真诚的联系，让他们感到安心，愿意分享如此私密的故事。

She built this genuine connection that allowed them to feel comfortable sharing their really intimate story.

他们甚至希望亲自在《每日新闻》节目中用他们自己的话讲述这个故事，以帮助人们以一种全新的方式理解这些新型药物。

And they even wanted to tell it in their own words with us at The Daily to help people understand these new drugs in a totally different way.

《每日新闻》依赖像丽莎这样的记者，投入时间建立这些联系，讲述独特的故事，并确保每一个细节都准确无误。

The Daily relies on journalists like Lisa, investing time into building these connections, telling a unique story, and making sure that they get it exactly right.

纽约时报的订阅用户让这一切成为可能。

New York Times subscribers make this possible.

如果你已经是订阅用户，非常感谢你。

If you're already a subscriber, thank you so much.

如果你还不是订阅用户，可以通过订阅《纽约时报》来成为其中一员。

If you're not, you can become one by subscribing to The New York Times.

好的。

Okay.

那么告诉我，当特朗普上台时，这些市场究竟会发生什么变化？

So tell me what exactly changes for these markets when Trump comes to office.

自从特朗普上任以来，这些平台的氛围发生了彻底改变。

Since Trump's taken over, there's been a complete change in attitude toward these platforms.

科佩兰的家刚刚被联邦调查局搜查过，却受邀参加了在白宫举行的科技高管峰会。

Copeland, whose house had only just been raided by the FBI, was invited to a summit for tech executives at the White House.

唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 正式成为 Polymarket 的顾问。

Donald Trump junior became a formal adviser to Polymarket.

最重要的是，特朗普政府下的司法部正式终止了对科佩兰的调查。

And most importantly, the justice department under Trump officially dropped this investigation into Copeland.

这一切都发生在一场法律纠纷的背景下，涉及 Polymarket 的一个竞争对手——一家名为 Kalshi 的公司，它也提供自己的预测市场。在选举前后，这家公司刚刚赢得了一场与商品期货交易委员会的重大法律诉讼。

And this is all happening in the context of a legal battle involving one of Polymarket's competitors, a company called Kalshi that also offers its own prediction market, which around the time of the election had won a big legal dispute with the CFTC.

所以，这些一直笼罩着公司和市场的法律问题突然间似乎都消失了。

So suddenly, all these legal troubles that had been hovering over the company and the markets in general, they kinda seem to disappear.

是的。

Yeah.

它们消失了。

They vanish.

因此，你看到了一系列事件的汇聚：特朗普政府带来的亲商业态度，以及Kalshi赢得的这场法律胜利。

So you've got this culmination of a bunch of things, a kind of pro business attitude brought by the Trump administration, this legal victory secured by Kalshi.

因此，尽管这一切并非一夜之间发生，但结果是美国用户现在可以无需VPN即可使用这些平台。

And so while it didn't happen overnight, what that meant is that US based users were now allowed to use these platforms without a VPN.

它们变得几乎对任何人都容易获取。

They become easily available to almost anyone.

我刚刚听说了Polymarket。

I just found out about Polymarket.

我一开始投了10美元，现在涨到了一百多美元。

I started with $10, and I'm up like 100 something dollars.

这推动了更大的文化转变。

And that feeds into this larger cultural shift.

我是一名全职的Polymarket交易员，很多人不理解你怎么能靠Polymarket过上全职生活，但让我来解释一下。

I'm a full time polymarket trader, and a lot of people don't understand how you can make a full time living on polymarket, but let me explain.

人们越来越多地使用这些平台。

People are using these platforms more and more.

它们在美国变得更加容易获取。

They're more available in The United States.

NHL刚刚成为首个与预测市场平台Kalshi和Polymarket达成授权协议的美国主要职业联赛。

The NHL just became the first major US pro league to strike licensing deals with prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket.

Polymarket将成为UFC的官方预测市场合作伙伴。

Polymarket is gonna become the official prediction market partner for the UFC.

Cal本周刚刚宣布与Coinbase达成一项新合作。

Cal, she just announced a new partnership this week with Coinbase.

每一周都会出现新的重大合作，使它们越来越进入主流视野。

With every passing week comes some new major partnership that brings them more and more into the mainstream.

道琼斯正在与Polymarket合作。

Dow Jones is teaming up with Polymarket.

这是一项独家合作，将使Polymarket的实时预测数据能够在道琼斯的各个平台上展示，包括《华尔街日报》。

This is an exclusive partnership, and it'll make Polymarket's real time prediction data available across Dow Jones platforms, including The Wall Street Journal.

像CNN、CNBC这样的大型媒体机构

Big media organizations like CNN, CNBC,

该

The

《华尔街日报》已与Kalshi和Polymarket达成正式合作，将其网站数据用于新闻报道中。

Wall Street Journal have formal partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket to use data from the sites in their news reports.

哇。

Wow.

晚上好，欢迎来到第83届金球奖。

Good evening, and welcome to the eighty third Golden Globes.

金球奖颁奖典礼的直播中展示了Polymarket的赔率。

The Golden Globes featured Poly market odds on the live broadcast.

以下是最佳播客的提名名单。

Here are the nominees for best podcast.

播放视频。

Roll the tape.

在最佳播客奖项宣布之前，Polymarket的赔率被投射到了屏幕上。

Right before the best podcast award was announced, poly market odds were projected on the screen.

因此，人们对这些事物的认识已经经历了一场巨大的文化觉醒。

And so it's been this huge kind of cultural awakening toward these things.

大卫，想到你为我们勾勒出的这条发展轨迹，确实有点不可思议。

It is kind of wild, David, to just consider the trajectory that you've laid out for us here.

一年前，这些市场还只是互联网上一种边缘的、非法的角落，你得用加密货币付款，还得用VPN才能访问。

A year ago about these markets were operating as a kind of niche, illegal backwater on the Internet where you had to pay in crypto and have a VPN to use them.

而现在，它们已经完全进入了主流。

And now they're, like, fully in the mainstream.

主流。

Mainstream.

是的

Yeah.

规模巨大。

The scale is enormous.

去年12月，Polymarket和Kalshi的交易量约为120亿美元。

There was about $12,000,000,000 in trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi in December.

这比前一年增长了400%。

That's a 400% increase from the year before.

哇哦。

Woah.

当然，与传统体育博彩平台的用户基数相比，这仍然较小。

And look, granted, that's still a smaller user base than bets on traditional sports books.

但增长速度相当惊人。

But the level of growth is pretty impressive.

最近一个引起广泛关注的例子是，Polymarket上设立了一个关于委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗是否会被罢免的投注市场。

So one recent example that got a lot of attention is a betting market on Polymarket about whether the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, would be removed from power.

对。

Right.

我看到了。

I saw that.

关于马杜罗问题的某些投注，实际上引发了人们对这些平台运作方式的新担忧。

And some of the betting on that Maduro question actually raised new concerns about how these platforms operate.

就在美国对委内瑞拉采取行动以推翻马杜罗之前，一名匿名投注者在Polymarket上下了大注，押注马杜罗会被罢免，而随后他果然被罢免，这位投注者因此获得了巨额利润。

Shortly before The US operation in Venezuela to remove Maduro, an anonymous bettor on Polymarket placed a large bet that Maduro would be removed from power, and then, of course, he was, and that trader made a big profit.

但这笔投注的时机如此精准，以至于让许多人相信，这位投注者一定掌握了有关这次行动的内部信息，这很可能是一种基于政府泄密或政府人员不当使用该平台的内幕交易。

But the timing of that bet was so good that it convinced a lot of people that this trader must have had some sort of advanced knowledge about the operation, that this must have been some kind of insider trading based on a government leak or somebody in government improperly using the site.

对。

Right.

我记得当时发生这件事，因为我一直在密切关注马杜罗的新闻。

I remember when that happened because I was following the Maduro news very closely.

人们看到这笔投注后，就直接假设下注的人可能与白宫关系密切，并提前知道这件事会发生。

People saw that bet and just did assume that this person who made it was potentially close to the White House and knew in advance it was gonna happen.

是的

Yeah.

需要明确的是，当时并没有任何证据支持这种说法。

To be clear, there was no evidence of that.

这从未被证实过。

It was never proven.

但我认为，我们在这里看到的是一种在体育领域已经出现过的情况：当博彩变得极为普及时，人们会对一切事情产生怀疑。

But I think what we're seeing here is something that we've already seen in the realm of sports, which is when betting becomes super mainstream, there's an aura of suspicion that develops around everything.

人们会坚信事情被操纵了，有人为了赚钱而作弊。

People become convinced that things are rigged, that somebody's cheating to try to make money.

而现在，这种怀疑的氛围正蔓延到体育以外的诸多现实世界领域。

And now we're seeing that aura extend to all sorts of other things in the real world outside of sports.

这种怀疑甚至影响到了新闻制造者自身的运作方式。

And that's even bled into how the newsmakers themselves are operating.

去年秋天发生了一起事件，当时Coinbase的首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗——美国最大的加密货币公司——正在举行财报电话会议。

There was an incident last fall where Brian Armstrong, the chief executive of Coinbase, is which the largest crypto company in The US, was doing an earnings call.

同时，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 上都有针对他在那次财报电话会议中会说出哪些词语的博彩市场。

And at the same time, there was a betting market on both Kalshi and Polymarket on what words he would utter during that earnings call.

我能暂停一下，说说这有多惊人吗？居然有人在赌他会用哪些词来开财报电话会？

Could I just pause and say how amazing it is that there were bets being made on what words he would use in an earnings call?

也许有一天，人们会赌你每天会说什么话。

Maybe someday there'll be bets on what you'll say on the daily.

我的意思是，谁知道呢？

I mean, who knows?

这一切都像是可以下注的赌局。

It's all sort of fair game

不。

No.

在这一点上

At this

。

point.

总之，在这次财报电话会结束时

Anyway, at the end of this earnings call

是的

Yeah.

希望我们解答了你关于这个问题的疑问。

I hope we answered your question on that.

我有点分心了，因为我一直在追踪关于Coinbase下次财报电话会会说什么的预测市场，我只是想

I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call, and I just wanna

阿姆斯特朗说，哦，我其实一直在关注预测市场。

Armstrong says, oh, I've actually been looking at the prediction markets.

而且

And

我只是想补充一下，把比特币、以太坊、区块链、质押和Web三这些词加进去，确保在电话会结束前把这些词都涵盖到。

I just wanna add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web three to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.

然后他就一口气报出了人们下注的那些词。

Then he just reels off a list of the words that people were betting on.