美国推翻委内瑞拉总统行动内幕

我是尼克·克里斯托夫。

This is Nick Kristoff.

我是《纽约时报》的专栏作家，我很自豪，《纽约时报》一百多年来一直开展年度募捐活动，为慈善组织筹款。

I'm an opinion columnist for The New York Times, and I'm proud that for more than one hundred years, The Times has conducted an annual appeal to raise money for charitable organizations.

《纽约时报》的新闻报道核心是核实真相，而这次，我们核实了各个组织，并挑选出一些最优秀的机构，帮助创造机会、克服困难。

Times journalism is fundamentally about vetting the truth, and in this case, vetting organizations and selecting some of the best to help create opportunity and overcome hardship.

我希望你们能考虑向《纽约时报》社区基金捐款。

I hope you'll consider donating to The New York Times Communities Fund.

如需了解更多信息，请访问 nytimes.com/nytfund。

To learn more, go to nytimes.com/nytfund.

谢谢。

Thank you.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·基托夫。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》的特别节目。

This is a special episode of The Daily.

这一切始于加拉加斯清晨的空袭。

It began with early morning strikes across Caracas.

最终以委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的戏剧性被捕告终。

And ended with a dramatic capture of Venezuela's leader, Nicolas Maduro.

马杜罗被戴上手铐、蒙上眼睛，送上一艘美国军舰，带到美国接受毒品指控。

Maduro was handcuffed, blindfolded, put on a US warship, and brought to The US to face drug charges.

晚安。

Good night.

新年快乐。

Happy New Year.

今天，我的同事埃里克·施密特讲述了这次行动是如何展开的，以及接下来会发生什么。

Today, my colleague Eric Schmidt tells the story of how the operation unfolded and what comes next.

今天是1月4日，星期日。

It's Sunday, January 4.

埃里克，新年快乐。

Eric, happy New Year.

感谢您参与这一期特别的周日节目。

Thank you for being here for this special Sunday episode.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我想先做一个观察：尽管我们一直为这样的事情做准备，但刚刚目睹的这一切，可能是近几十年来美国展现权力最大胆的一次行动。

I wanna just start with an observation, which is that even though we have been bracing for something like this, what we've just witnessed may be the most audacious exercise of American power in a generation.

特朗普总统俘虏并罢免了一位现任外国领导人。

President Trump has captured and removed a sitting foreign leader.

在过去二十五年里，从未发生过类似的事情。

Nothing close to this has happened in something like twenty five years.

这确实是具有历史意义的。

It is truly historic.

确实如此。

That's absolutely true.

而我们过去几个月一直在关注针对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的压力行动逐步升级。

And it's here we have been watching this pressure campaign build on president Maduro at Venezuela for the last several months.

但在深夜派遣特种作战部队突袭并俘虏一个国家的领导人，这确实非同寻常。

But to go in with special operations forces in the dead of night and seize the leader of a country is really extraordinary.

你必须回溯到1989年，当时美军发动了一次类似行动，目标是当时的巴拿马总统曼努埃尔·诺列加。

You have to go back to 1989 when the US military carried out an operation, a similar operation, to go after then the president of Panama, Manuel Noriega.

没错。

Yep.

当时出动了规模大得多的地面部队，而且花了相当长的时间才完成，因为这不是像这次这样的速战速决行动。

Much larger force went in on the ground and ended up spending quite a bit of time there because it wasn't an in and out operation like this was.

所以你说得对。

So you're right.

这确实如你所说，是极其大胆的。

This really is, in your words, audacious.

所以我想谈谈促成这一事件的行动，他们称之为‘绝对决心’行动。

So I wanna talk about the operation that led to this, an operation they called absolute resolve.

跟我讲讲这次行动的策划与执行过程。

Talk to me about the planning that went into and the execution of this operation.

我们知道了什么？

What do we know?

这项行动的规划其实可以追溯到几个月前的夏季。

So the planning for this operation really goes back several months to the summertime.

当时政府正在考虑他们所谓的第一阶段行动，即打击被认为正在加勒比海和后来的东太平洋向美国贩运毒品的船只。

This is when the administration is first considering what they called phase one, which would have been to strike boats trafficking, what they believe were narcotics going to The United States in The Caribbean and later the Eastern Pacific.

但还存在一个较少为人所知的第二阶段，通过我们的调查发现，政府曾考虑后续阶段，动用陆军三角洲部队进行陆上打击，最终推翻委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。

But there was also a phase two that was less well known, but through our reporting revealed that the administration was considering a follow on phase that would use the army's Delta Force to conduct land strikes and ultimately an operation to oust President Maduro of Venezuela.

大约一个月后，在八月，中央情报局派遣了一支秘密特工小组潜入委内瑞拉，开始锁定马杜罗的行踪。

About a month later in August, the CIA infiltrated clandestine team of officers into Venezuela to start getting a bead on Maduro.

他们的任务非常有趣。

And their job was really interesting.

作为间谍，他们必须保持极低的曝光度，但试图弄清情报机构所谓的‘生活模式’。

It was as spies, they had to keep a very low profile, but they were trying to figure out kind of what the spy agencies called their pattern of life.

马杜罗会经常移动吗？

Does Maduro move around?

他每天在哪里吃饭？

Where does he eat every day?

你知道他养什么宠物吗？

You know, what kind of pets does he have?

你想了解你的目标、潜在目标的日常作息。

You wanna get an idea of the daily routine that your target, your potential target has.

于是，这些特工在地面悄然监视着马杜罗的行动和活动。

And so here these operatives are on the ground kind of monitoring stealthily the movements and the activities of Maduro.

此外，中央情报局还成功策反了一名政府内部的线人，可以随时向他们通报马杜罗的行踪。

Now in addition to that, the CIA was able to basically get an informant on the inside, inside the government, who could basically relay Maduro's location, you know, where he was going at any given moment.

这使得中央情报局和军方能够进行隐蔽的无人机空中侦察。

And that allowed the CIA and the military to also conduct stealthy drone flights overhead.

因此，只要他前往国内任何地方，他们都能跟踪监视。

So if he were to travel somewhere in the country, they could keep an eye on him.

你所说的内容真令人惊叹。

It's remarkable what you're saying.

中情局不仅在地面派出了监视马杜罗的特工，还有一名内部线人向他们提供信息，这个告密者告诉他们实施行动所需的关键情报。

The CIA not only had operatives on the ground monitoring Maduro, they also had someone inside who was feeding them information, a snitch, who was telling them what they needed to know to potentially carry this out.

没错，娜塔莉。

That's right, Natalie.

我曾有一位美国高级官员告诉我，他们感到非常有信心，因为用他的话说，他们已经对马杜罗实现了全方位监控。

I had one senior US official tell me that they felt so confident because basically they had, in his words, they had Maduro wired.

这并不是说他真的佩戴了窃听器，但是

Now that doesn't mean he actually was wearing a wire, but

在这种情况下，这意味着他们几乎随时都能掌握他的行踪。

it meant in this case that they felt they knew his location pretty much any time.

当然，最困难的部分之一就是找到目标。

One of the hardest part, of course, is trying to find a target.

一旦你能找到目标，就可以开始策划军事行动，决定如何进入并抓捕他。

And once you can find a target, then you can start building the operation, the military operation of how you go in and capture him.

但一旦这些间谍和特别接近马杜罗的线人到位，最困难的部分就已经过去了。

But once they had these spies in place and an informant in particular that was close to Maduro, some of the hardest part was, you know, was past them.

然后他们就可以专注于完成一项艰巨的任务：集结能够完成这一使命的军事力量。

And then they could really work on the the difficult task of assembling the military might that would do the job.

好的。

Okay.

那么给我讲讲这次行动本身吧。

So take me to the operation itself.

一旦所有这些要素都准备就绪，行动是如何展开的？

How did it unfold once they had all these pieces in place?

请记住，这一切始于美国首先在加勒比海地区对船只实施特种部队行动或导弹打击。

So remember, this all starts as The United States is carrying out special forces or striking these boats first in The Caribbean with missile strikes.

据该政府称，这一切的目标是打击他们所谓的‘毒品恐怖主义’。

And this is all aimed at, the administration says, at the what they call the narcoterrorism.

他们指控马杜罗实际上是某个贩毒集团的头目，并将他等同于恐怖分子，就像将他与基地组织或伊斯兰国成员相提并论一样。

That is they've accused Maduro being the head of essentially a drug cartel and equating him as a terrorist as if you would equate him with, say, being a member of Al Qaeda or the Islamic State.

因此，他们最初组建这支力量就是围绕这一目标展开的。

So they're building this force initially around that.

下一阶段发生在几周前，他们开始针对油轮。

The next stage is just a few weeks ago, they start targeting oil tankers.

这些油轮要么是空船驶入委内瑞拉装载石油，要么是离开委内瑞拉的油轮。

And these are oil tankers, that are either empty tankers coming into Venezuela to pick up oil or tankers leaving Venezuela.

石油是委内瑞拉经济的关键组成部分。

Oil is a crucial component of Venezuela's economy.

因此，美国政府试图基本扼杀马杜罗总统的经济，加大压力迫使他下台。

And so the administration is trying to basically choke off the economy of president Maduro and increase the pressure on him to leave.

是的。

Yes.

我们最近就这个问题与我们的同事阿纳托利进行了讨论。

We talked to our colleague, Anatoli, about this recently.

正如你所说，其目的是通过切断他主要收入来源来挤压经济，削弱马杜罗。

And the idea then, as you said, was to try to squeeze the economy, to weaken Maduro by putting a stranglehold on his main source of income.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

不过，埃里克，当时的问题是，军事行动是暂停了，还是仍在暗中进行？

The question, though, at that point, Eric, was, was the military part of this on hold, or was that still happening in the background?

没有。

No.

军事行动以及可供特朗普总统选择的方案仍在加紧筹备中。

The military operation and the option so that's available to president Trump is still building.

他们仍在持续调派部队，就在过去几周，我们得到消息，一些非常专业的飞机开始抵达。

They're still flowing troops in, and what we got is a tipper just in the last couple weeks were some very specialized planes are starting to come in.

这些飞机是专门设计用来干扰飞机的。

These are planes that are, designed to jam aircraft.

它们的设计目的是让一座大城市彻底断电。

They're designed to basically shut off electricity in a major city.

它们用于侦察监视。

They're used for surveillance.

它们被用来运送特种作战部队。

They're used to bring in special operations forces.

如果你不打算使用这些军事装备，就不会把它们运进来。

You wouldn't bring this military hardware in if you weren't planning to use it.

这就是分析人士告诉我的。

That's what analysts were telling me.

因此，在过去十天左右，问题不再是美国是否会对委内瑞拉发动重大军事行动。

So it became a matter just in the last ten days or so, not if The United States was gonna carry out a major military operation against Venezuela.

当然，总统曾威胁要对那里实施地面打击，但什么时候呢？

And the president, of course, had threatened to carry out land strikes there, but when?

因此，倒计时真的开始了。

And so the clock was really starting to tick.

当你集结了如此庞大的兵力后，不可能永远把它留在那里。

As you have amassed this giant force, you can't keep it there forever.

随着圣诞节临近，上周末我们开始看到一些迹象，表明某种行动可能即将展开。

And as Christmas approached late last week, we started to see indications that some type of operation might be imminent.

但结果发现委内瑞拉遭遇了恶劣的天气，狂风暴雨，反常得厉害，这对涉及飞机和直升机的行动来说非常不利。

But it turned out there was a horrible stretch of weather in Venezuela, windy and rainy, unseasonably bad weather, which would have been very bad for operations involving aircraft and helicopters.

因此，军方实施这一行动的窗口期被延长了。

And so the window for an opportunity for the military to carry out this operation was extended.

所以我们连续几天都提心吊胆，不知道这次行动到底会不会真的发生。

And so we were kind of on pins and needles for several days, not knowing, you know, if this was actually gonna go forward.

当然，总统仍需最终批准这次行动。

The president still had to give his final approval for this, of course.

然后，在华盛顿时间周五深夜、委内瑞拉时间周六凌晨，我的同事们在周六凌晨两点前把我叫醒，告诉我加拉加斯地区发生了爆炸。

And then late, Friday night here in Washington, you know, early in the morning in Venezuela, my colleagues woke me up a little before 2AM on Saturday morning with news that there had been explosions in and around the Caracas area.

哇。

Wow.

而且

And

很快，人们就在社交媒体上看到巨大的火球从黑暗中腾空而起。

soon they were seeing on social media these great fireballs emerging from the darkness.

你知道，这座城市是一座主要城市，当然，看起来就像整座城市正在遭受攻击。

You know, the city, this is a major city, of course, and it looked like, there the city was under attack.

随后又有更多视频显示，直升机在深夜飞行。

Then there was more video that showed helicopters, you know, flying in the dead of night.

你可以清楚地看到它们的轮廓，那就是美国特种作战直升机的外形。

You could see their outlines clearly, you know, the profile of American special operations helicopters.

我们从社交媒体上看到了更多画面，似乎是直升机对两三个主要的委内瑞拉军事基地发动了袭击。

We saw more footage from social media, what appeared to be helicopter strikes against two and three major Venezuelan military bases.

哇。

Wow.

来自委内瑞拉的画面非常震撼。

Very dramatic scenes coming from Venezuela.

但在这里的华盛顿，政府方面却一片沉默。

But here in Washington, utter silence, you know, from the administration.

你知道吗？

You know?

如果确实有行动正在进行，这种情况是典型的，因为总统和他的核心幕僚不会在军事行动进行期间对任何事情发表评论。

And this would have been typical if indeed there was an operation ongoing because the president and his top aides would not wanna comment on anything while there were, you know, military operations underway.

美国部队正处于危险之中。

American forces were at risk.

在他们脱离危险之前，这类事情通常都是如此，他们不会发表任何声明。

And until they were out of harm's way, this is typical of these kind of things, they're they're not gonna comment.

因此，在周六凌晨的几个小时里，我们一直等待，直到华盛顿时间凌晨4点后，总统在Truth Social上宣布，美国对委内瑞拉及其领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗发动了一次他称之为成功的大规模打击，据总统称，马杜罗及其妻子已被俘虏并被运出该国。

So we had a very long several hours early Saturday morning until the president just after 4AM here in Washington announced on Truth Social that The US had conducted a what he called a successful large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, Nicolas Maduro, who, you know, along with his wife, the president said, had been captured and flown out of the country.

哇。

Wow.

然后总统说，敬请关注。

And then president said, stay tuned.

总统特朗普说，敬请关注。

President Trump, that is, said, stay tuned.

我们将在十一点举行新闻发布会。

We're gonna have a news conference at eleven.

这将在大约七小时后发生。

That's in seven hours or so.

对。

Right.

他基本上对所有人说，十一点准时收看。

He says to everyone, basically, tune in at eleven.

当然，我们都这么做了。

And, of course, we all do.

而且，正如你所说，我们知道马杜罗已被撤职，这次逮捕显然非常戏剧性，但我们还不清楚具体是如何发生的。

And at this point, as you said, we know Maduro has been removed from his post in this incredibly, apparently, dramatic arrest, but we don't know exactly how this happened.

所以我们就从这里开始。

So let's start there.

在记者会上，我们了解到这一切是如何发生的？

What did we learn in the presser about how this all went down?

当然。

Sure.

所以总统在新闻发布会前，接受福克斯新闻的采访中，稍微透露了一点这件事。

So the president kind of teased a little bit of this before his, press conference in an interview with Fox and Friends.

这是三角洲部队干的吗？

Was this Delta Force guys?

这次行动中，这支突击队的表现如此出色，有提到过吗？

Was this talked about, you know, the commando operation going so well.

是的。

Yep.

他们是世界上训练最精良的士兵。

They're the most highly trained soldiers in the world.

没有人拥有他们的才能，因为这需要天赋。

There's nobody that has their talent because it's talent.

这不仅仅是勇气。

It's not just it's not just bravery.

这是勇气。

It's bravery.

你必须有勇气，但更重要的是天赋。

You have to have the bravery, but it's talent.

他们甚至为这次行动做了充分准备，特种作战部队还建造了一座仿制房屋。

All the preparation of of this operation that they'd even the special operations forces had even built a mock house.

他们真的建了一栋与他们要突袭的房屋完全相同的房子，里面所有保险箱和钢制结构都一模一样。

They actually built a house which was identical to the one they went into with all the safes and all the steel all over the place.

在美國某地建了一座马杜罗的房屋。

A Maduro house somewhere in The United States.

这很标准。

And this is standard.

在2011年本·拉登突袭行动中也是如此，他们建造了目标建筑的精确复制品，反复演练，直到能闭着眼睛完成。

This happened in the Bin Laden raid, again, in 2011, where they build basically a facsimile model of the actual house or target building they're going to strike, and they just practice it until they can basically do it in their sleep.

哇。

Wow.

所以特朗普在福克斯的采访中稍微透露了一点这些内容。

So Trump teases a little bit of this in the Fox interview.

好的。

Okay.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

这是大事。

This is big stuff.

大约在11点后不久，他在佛罗里达州海湖庄园的新闻发布会上现身。

And then sometime shortly after 11:00, he comes out at his press conference at his resort in Mar A Lago, Florida.

在他身后是几位内阁成员，包括国防部长哈格塞夫、国务卿马可·卢比奥和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军。

And behind him are several of his cabinet members, including defense secretary Hagsef and secretary of state Marco Rubio and general Dan Kane, the chairman of joint chiefs of staff.

昨晚深夜和今天凌晨，根据我的指示，美国武装部队在委内瑞拉首都开展了一次非凡的军事行动。

Late last night and early today at my direction, the United States Armed Forces conducted an extraordinary military operation in the capital of Venezuela.

总统接着进一步描述了这次行动及其发生的情况。

And the president goes on to kind of describe this operation and what had happened.

当时一片漆黑。

It was dark.

由于我们具备某种专业知识，加拉加斯的灯光大部分被关闭了。

The, lights of Caracas were largely turned off due to a certain expertise that we have.

一片漆黑，而且极其致命。

It was dark, and it was deadly.

然后

And then

凯恩将军是一名四星空军将军，更重要的是，他之前的工作是军方与中央情报局的联络官。

general Kane, who's a four star, air force general, and, most almost important, his previous job was as the military's liaison to the Central Intelligence Agency.

这次任务经过了精心策划。

This mission was meticulously planned.

凯恩将军放弃了，详细但冷静地描述了这次行动。

General Kane gave up and gave a very detailed but somewhat dispassionate account of this mission.

昨晚东部时间22点46分，总统命令美国军队推进此次行动。

At 10:46PM eastern time last night, the president ordered the United States military to move forward with this mission.

整晚，飞机从西半球20个不同的陆地和海上基地陆续起飞。

Over the course of the night, aircraft began launching from 20 different bases on land and sea across the Western Hemisphere.

总计，昨晚有超过150架飞机，包括轰炸机、战斗机、情报、侦察、监视和旋翼机，在空中执行任务。

In total, more than a 150 aircraft, bombers, fighters, intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, rotary wing were in the air last night.

谈到超过150架飞机从该地区的20个基地起飞的情况。

Talking about how more than a 150 aircraft launched from 20 bases in the region.

当部队开始接近加拉加斯时，联合空中部队开始摧毁并瘫痪委内瑞拉的防空系统，使用武器确保直升机安全进入目标区域。

As the force began to approach Caracas, the joint air component began dismantling and disabling the air defense systems in Venezuela, employing weapons to ensure the safe passage of the helicopters into the target area.

随后实施了这次打击，基本上为被快速运送至加拉加斯一处安全屋的三角洲部队突击队员清除了通道——他们通过间谍得知，马杜罗正与妻子躲藏在那里。

And then carried out this strike that basically cleared a pathway for these Delta Force commandos that are being whisked on special operations helicopters to this safe house in Caracas where they know, because of the spies, where, Maduro is holed up with his wife.

当直升机编队以低空飞向目标时，我们在东部标准时间上午10点01分（加拉加斯当地时间凌晨2:01）抵达马杜罗的住所，抓捕部队随即降入其宅邸。

As the helicopter force ingressed towards the objective at low level, we arrived at Maduro's compound at 101 AM Eastern Standard Time or 02:01AM Caracas local time, and the apprehension force descended into Maduro's compound.

他接着详细描述了各种细节。

And he goes on to talk in various detail.

当直升机抵达目标区域时，遭到火力攻击，他们以压倒性力量进行还击和自卫。

On arrival into the target area, the helicopters came under fire, and they replied with that fire with overwhelming force and self defense.

突击队员抵达后，必须与部分安保部队展开战斗。

The commandos reach and basically have to fight through some of the security forces.

马杜罗及其妻子均被起诉，随即投降，并由司法部在我们卓越的美军专业而精准的协助下逮捕。

Maduro and his wife both indicted, gave up, and were taken into custody by the Department of Justice, assisted by our incredible US military with professionalism and precision.

但马杜罗及其妻子基本上没有进行多少抵抗就投降了。

But the Maduro and his wife basically give up without much of a fight.

在控制住被起诉人员后，部队开始准备撤离。

After securing the indicted persons, the force began to prep for departure.

调派了直升机进行撤离。

Helicopters were called in to exfiltrate

战壕。

trench.

将军稍后谈到，他们随后必须再次出动，乘坐新的直升机撤离，途中遭遇火力袭击，最终他们从海上返航，从“硫磺岛号”舰船上离开，整个行动持续了两个多小时二十分钟左右。

Talks a little bit, the general does, about how then they have to basically go back out again, with a new set of helicopters that whisk them away coming under fire, and that they come back out over the water and fly back ultimately out of the ship, the Iwo Jima, in an operation that altogether takes a little over two hours and twenty minutes or so.

马杜罗及其妻子被带上这艘舰船，准备转运至纽约。

And that Maduro and his wife are brought to this ship and then laid to be transported to New York.

这次行动彰显了我们对正义的奉献与坚定不移的决心，决心追究那些威胁和平与稳定者的责任。

This operation is a testament to the dedication and unwavering commitment to justice and our resolve to hold accountable those who threaten peace and stability.

你能解释一下，军队如何能执行他们所谓的刑事执法行动吗？

Can you just explain how you can have the military carry out what they're calling a criminal law enforcement operation?

你们怎么能让150架飞机和三角洲突击队进去逮捕一个人？

How do you send a 150 planes in, these Delta Commando forces, to arrest someone?

从技术上讲，他基本上说司法部请求了我们的协助。

Well, in technical terms, he's basically said the justice department asked for our help.

你知道，他们自己是无法进去完成这件事的。

You know, they couldn't go in there on their own and do this.

凯恩将军明确表示，突击队中确实有执法官员。

General Kane made it very clear that there were, you know, law enforcement agents with the commandos.

他们基本上是去执行逮捕令的。

They were basically there serving, you know, an arrest warrant.

他们的任务是逮捕马杜罗总统。

They were there to arrest president Maduro.

他们并不是去杀死他，就像2011年对付本·拉登那样。

They're not there to kill him like they did with Osama bin Laden in 2011.

对。

Right.

这就是他们打算用来合理化这一行动的方式。

And this is how they're gonna try and justify this.

他们基本上是在说，我们来找你，是因为美国对尼古拉斯·马杜罗提出了指控，指控他参与毒品贩运以及与此相关的各种其他罪行。

They're basically saying we are coming after you because there's an indictment in The United States against you, Nicolas Maduro, for implicating him in drug trafficking and all sorts of other crimes related to that.

我们来找你，是基于法律原则。

And we're coming after you as a matter of, you know, legal principle.

至少他们是这样表述的。

And that's at least how they're framing it.

这再次说明，这并非一场军事行动，而是服务于一项将持续进行的执法行动。

This is again, it's not it's a military operation, but done in the service of a law enforcement operation that will continue to play out.

他们声称这实际上不是一种战争行为，或者至少潜台词是这样。

They're saying this is not actually an act of war, or at least that's the subtext.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

我们并没有与委内瑞拉开战。

We're not at war with Venezuela.

这是一次非常具体的行动。

This is a very specific mission.

他们并不是为了摧毁桥梁、水坝、瘫痪电网，像我们在中东和西南亚许多空袭中看到的那样。

They're not out to destroy bridges and dams and take down power grids and everything else that we saw in many of the strikes in The Middle East and Southwest Asia.

他们来这里只有一个特定目的。

They're there for one particular reason.

他们想进去抓走马杜罗，然后离开。

They wanna go in, grab Maduro, and get out.

所以这只不过是一次资金充足、代价高昂的逮捕。

So just a very well funded, expensive arrest.

没错。

There you go.

这么说很贴切。

That's a good way of putting it.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我叫凯拉。

My name is Kayla.

我和我丈夫用他的邮箱账号登录《纽约时报》。

My husband and I use his email address to access The New York Times.

每天我们都会竞争谁来玩《Connections》游戏。

Each day, we compete for who gets to do Connections.

有时候我登录应用时，发现他已经当天完成《Connections》了。

Sometimes I log into the app and I discover that he's already finished connections that day.

我会说，乔纳，今天该我玩了。

And I'm like, Jonah, it was my day.

他却说，我知道，但我实在忍不住。

And he's like, I know I just couldn't resist.

如果我们能以家庭名义登录，使用各自的邮箱，那对我们来说将是极大的帮助。

You would do us a huge favor if we got to log in as a family with separate emails.

我真的认为，我们夫妻的幸福取决于这一点。

I really think our well-being as a couple depends on it.

感谢您关注这个问题。

Thanks for looking into this.

凯拉，我们听到了你的声音。

Kayla, we heard you.

推出《纽约时报》家庭订阅服务。

Introducing the New York Times Family Subscription.

一份订阅，最多可为四位家庭成员提供独立登录账号。

One subscription up to four separate logins for anyone in your life.

了解更多，请访问 nytimes.com/family。

Find out more at nytimes.com/family.

现在我想谈谈委内瑞拉当前的情况。

So I wanna turn to what happens now in Venezuela.

他们对此说了什么？

What did they say about that?

接下来会发生什么？

What comes next?

嗯，这可能是这场新闻发布会中最令人震惊的部分。

Well, this may have been the most stunning part of this pro press conference.

我们将继续管理国家，直到能够实现安全、妥善和审慎的权力交接。

We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.

因此，我们不希望介入让其他人上台，导致我们再次陷入过去多年来的相同局面。

So we don't wanna be involved with, having somebody else get in, and we have the same situation that we had for the last long period of years.

因此，我们将继续管理国家。

So we are going to run the country.

总统基本上表示，我们将继续管理国家。

The president basically says, we're gonna run the country.

总统先生。

Mister president.

总统先生。

Mister president.

你几乎能听到观众倒吸一口冷气。

And you can almost kinda hear a gasp in the audience.

就是说要接管国家。

It's like, run the country.

他说

He said

美国将接管委内瑞拉。

that The US is going to run Venezuela.

那么现在谁掌权呢？

So who's in power right now?

我们会与一个团队一起管理，并确保它得到妥善运作。

Well, we're gonna be running it with a group, and we're gonna make sure it's run properly.

我们将重建石油基础设施，这将花费数十亿美元。

We're gonna rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars.

这笔费用将由石油公司直接承担。

It'll be paid for by the oil companies directly.

是的。

Yeah.

我们打算

We're gonna

进去。

go in there.

我们首先要做的就是把石油公司带进来。

First thing we're gonna do is gonna bring in, you know, the oil companies.

委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的石油储量之一。

Venezuela sits on some of the largest oil reserves in the world.

我们会让石油像应该的那样流动起来。

And we're gonna get the oil flowing the way it should be.

你知道的，目前产量只是很小一部分。

As you know, it's just a minor flow.

对于他们拥有的资源来说，这实际上只是很小的流量。

It's actually a minor flow for what they have.

我们将改善并扩建他们的石油基础设施。

And we're gonna improve and build upon their oil infrastructure.

因此，石油公司可以销售石油，其中一部分收益将惠及委内瑞拉人民，但大部分收益将惠及我们，也就是美国的石油公司。

So oil companies can sell oil, and the proceeds can some of that will benefit the Venezuelan people, but a lot of it will benefit us, meaning American oil companies.

但观众中的记者提出了很多问题。

But there are many, many questions from reporters in the audience.

就像，好吧。

It's like, well, okay.

但到底谁来治理呢？

But who's actually gonna govern?

嗯，在一段时间内，主要将由……

Well, it's largely going to be for a period of time.

站在我身后的人来负责管理。

The people that are standing right behind me, we're gonna be running it.

特朗普还回头看了一下。

And and Trump kinda looks behind him.

他说：这些家伙会负责。

He says, well, these guys will.

意思是，比如哈格、塞思和鲁比奥。

Meaning, like, Hag, Seth, and Rubio.

所有人都说：什么？

And everybody goes, what?

就像是，好吧。

It's like, well, okay.

他会与现任副总统合作。

He'll work with the current vice president.

所以马尔科正在直接负责这件事。

So Marco's working on that directly.

他刚和她谈过，她基本上愿意做我们认为让委内瑞拉再次伟大的必要事情。

He just had a conversation with her, and she's essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.

很简单。

Very simple.

基本上，她要么配合，要么我们还会回来。

Basically, she's gotta either go along with things or we're gonna come back in.

我们现在就在那儿。

We're there now.

如果我们必须的话，我们随时准备再次行动。

We're ready to go again if we have to.

我们会把这个国家治理好。

We're gonna run the com country right.

它将会

It's gonna

他将保持一支规模庞大的美军驻扎在该地区，不一定驻扎在委内瑞拉本土，因为部队在此次行动后已经撤离，但他将此作为一种威胁：那些被扶植起来的委内瑞拉领导人如果不配合，美军可能不得不重返，重新整顿局面。

He's gonna keep this very sizable American force in the region, not necessarily in Venezuela itself because the troops have left after this operation, but he kind of holds that out as a threat that the Venezuelan leaders that are kind of being installed don't play ball, that the American forces may have to come back in again and straighten things out.

如果我清楚理解了他在记者会上的言论，他似乎想表达的是：美国实际上并不会直接任命官员来管理委内瑞拉政府。

What he seemed to be saying, if I understood his comments in the press conference clearly, was The US is not actually gonna install officials to directly run the government in Venezuela.

他暗示委内瑞拉副总统——刚刚宣誓就任总统的那个人——愿意与我们合作，也就是与美国政府合作。

He's suggesting that the vice president of Venezuela, who was just sworn in as president, he says, is willing to work with us, meaning the US government.

是的。

Yes.

与美国政府合作，但隐含的威胁是，如果她不合作或开始偏离轨道，美国可能不得不再次介入。

Work with the United States government, but but there's kind of this implicit threat that if she doesn't or if she starts to stray, The United States might have to come back.

这是一种威胁。

And there's a threat.

也许我们得找别人来为我们办事。

Maybe we have to get somebody else to do our bidding there.

是的，会由委内瑞拉人自己管理委内瑞拉，但华盛顿会牢牢掌控，我身后这些人会确保一切按正确的方式进行。

That, yes, there'll be Venezuelans running Venezuela, but with a very strong hand from Washington, and these people behind me are gonna make sure it's done right.

很多人都没料到会这样。

A lot of people just weren't expecting this.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

当然不是来自一位曾反对伊拉克和阿富汗长期战争的总统，他把自己塑造成一种非干预主义的政治领袖形象，不会像过去那样让我们陷入这么多令人厌倦的外国纠葛。

Certainly not from a president that campaigned against the forever wars in Iraq Afghanistan, for example, and made a political brand for himself of not being that kind of interventionist political leader that got us into these foreign entanglements that so many people grew tired of.

没错。

That's right.

或者如果他确实干预了，比如对伊朗核设施的打击，那也是一次性的。

Or if he did intervene, like he did with the Iranian nuclear strikes, it was kind of a one and done.

你迅速介入，然后迅速抽身，再去应对下一个危机。

You're in and out quickly, and then you move on to the next crisis.

而这一次，他基本上是在说，我们会全面接手这件事，并且会长期驻留，这与他迄今为止的言论截然不同。

This one, he's basically saying, we're gonna own this thing, and we're gonna be there for some time, which is very different than what he's been talking about up till now.

埃里克，解释一下他这么做的理由是什么。

And just explain what his rationale is for that, Eric.

他到底认为美国能从这件事中得到什么？

Like, what is he saying that The US gets out of this?

我认为最重要的是石油。

I think number one, it's oil.

他潜台词似乎是，我们谈论的并不是恢复民主或推翻独裁者。

That seemed to be his underlying message was, you know, we're not talking about restoring democracy or getting rid of a dictator.

好的。

Okay.

那也不错。

That's nice too.

但这里的真正关键是，这对美国有利。

But the real bottom line here is this is good for America.

我们将从这个国家的石油财富中获益。

We're gonna be benefiting from the oil riches of this country.

总统先生，为什么在南美洲管理一个国家是‘美国优先’？

Mister president, why is running a country in South America America first?

这就是一个问题，这如何支持‘美国优先’？

That's how one question was, how is this supporting of America first?

我认为这是因为我们希望周围都是友好的邻居。

Well, l think it is because we wanna surround ourself with good neighbors.

我们希望周围充满稳定。

We wanna surround ourself with stability.

他的回应是，这正是美国优先。

And his retort was, well, that is America first.

这符合美国的利益，即在西半球保持强大的存在感，而这正是他现在大力推动的，更积极地掌控委内瑞拉的政治体系和经济局势。

This is, you know, in America's interest to have a, you know, a strong presence in the Western Hemisphere, which, of course, is something he's now promoting very aggressively, and to have a much stronger American hand on the tiller, if you will, of the Venezuelan political system and its economy.

你知道，今天我们看到了佛罗里达州委内瑞拉侨民庆祝这一时刻的场景。

You know, there were these scenes we saw today out of Florida of the Venezuelan diaspora celebrating this moment.

显然，在许多委内瑞拉人眼中，这意味着一个被指控窃取选举、多年来以高压铁腕统治的专制领导人统治的终结。

Obviously, in the eyes of many Venezuelans, this means the end of the line for an authoritarian leader who was accused of stealing an election, who has been ruling with a repressive iron fist for years now.

那么，特朗普对委内瑞拉将从这一变化中获得什么说了什么？

So what has Trump said about what Venezuela stands to gain from this?

我认为他会辩称，他正在清除这个他称之为毒品恐怖主义者的可怕独裁者，而且现在美国将介入，特别是大力增强委内瑞拉经济，这个多年来一直遭受重创的经济将繁荣起来。

Well, I think he'll make the argument that, you know, he's getting rid of this horrible dictator he calls a narcoterrorist and that, you know, now that The United States is gonna come in, particularly in an enhanced its economy that the Venezuelan economy, which has been just under siege for many, many years, will flourish.

委内瑞拉人民也会繁荣起来。

And the Venezuelan people will flourish as well.

所以我认为他想表达的是，是的，这对美国有利，但对普通委内瑞拉人来说，摆脱这位严重破坏经济的独裁者也同样有利。

And so I think he's trying to make the point that, yes, this is good for The United States, but it's also good for your average Venezuelan to get rid of this dictator who's, really done bad things to your economy.

当然，委内瑞拉现实情况要复杂得多。

Of course, the reality on the ground in Venezuela is a lot more complicated.

马杜罗政权的许多成员仍然留在国内。

There are still many members of Maduro's regime who remain in the country.

那里的军队实力非常强大。

The military is very strong there.

我们对这件事将如何实际发展有任何了解吗？

Do we have any sense of how this will actually play out?

这与特朗普的承诺相符吗？

How that, you know, matches up against what Trump is promising?

当然，今天许多民主党批评者在回应总统的声明时明确表示：绝对不是。

Well, certainly, a whole slew of Democratic critics today in response to the president's announcement said absolutely not.

他根本不知道自己在做什么。

He has no idea what he's doing.

他正把美国引向一条非常危险的道路，因为他根本没有切实的未来计划。

And he's leading The United States down a very dangerous path where he doesn't have a real plan for the future here.

如果他所提出的计划不切实际，并且向全世界传递了错误的信号——不仅在拉丁美洲，还包括我们美国的主要对手俄罗斯和中国——等于是在说：只要你声称某国的政权更迭对地区和本国有利，就可以随意推翻任何国家的独裁者。

And if the plan that he's articulated is unrealistic, and it's sending all the wrong signals around the world, not only in Latin America, but to our, The United States' main rivals in Russia and China, and just basically saying, you know, you can go into any old country and topple the dictator just because you say it's it's good for the region and good for your country.

因此，这同样具有全球性的影响。

So this has got, you know, global implications as well.

埃里克，美国军方如此明确地被用作特朗普总统的工具，这会带来什么后果？

And, Eric, what are the implications of the US military being used as a tool for president Trump in this way so explicitly?

我认为，你只要听一听总统讲话，看他列举自己任内——不仅是本届政府，还包括他第一个任期——所取得的一些军事成就，就能明白。

Well and I think all you had to do is listen to the president and, as he ticked off some of the military accomplishments that that he's achieved, not just in this administration, but going back to his first term.

现在，他对在国内和海外部署军队感到非常自信。

And he feels very confident now in deploying the military, both at home and abroad.

我认为，他现在对使用军队已经毫无顾忌，不再将其视为最后手段，而是几乎本能地随时准备动用。

I think what he now feels is kind of unbridled in his use of the military, not as a last resort, but it's something he reaches for almost instinctively now.

我认为总统一直对动用武力持谨慎态度，因为他担心被拖入冲突。

The president has always, I think, been reluctant to deploy force because he worries about getting dragged into conflicts.

在他看来，如果他能完成这些行动，它们都会取得巨大成功。

In his mind, if he can carry out these operations, they're tremendously successful.

他会获得大量头条新闻，或许至少能暂时解决一些问题。

He gets big headlines and maybe even it gets at least temporary solutions to problems.

他会对此感到非常满意，并会反复再次使用这一手段。

He's gonna be very gratified by that, and he's gonna go back and and use that tool again and again.

当然，他的顾问们也会指着这一连串的成功说：好吧，我们再照这样来一次。

And certainly on the part of his advisers, he'll just point to these string of successes and say, well, we'll just do one more like this.

看看上一次的结果如何。

Look how the last one turned out.

所以对特朗普来说，这些在他心目中可能是外科手术式的打击，而不是长期战争。

So for Trump, these may be surgical strikes in his mind, not long wars.

但你说过，让他将这种军事行动正常化会带来深远的风险。

But you're saying there are profound risks to him normalizing this kind of military action.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

在国内和国外都使军事行动正常化。

Normalizing the military action both home and abroad.

然后我们看到这种趋势在延伸。

And then as we see extending that.

这不仅仅是一次性行为，因为他现在说，我们要在一段不可预知的时期内治理这个国家，并且会动用军队来支持这一点。

This isn't just a one and done because he's now saying we're gonna run this country for some unforeseen period, and he's gonna use the military to back that up.

你知道吗？

You know?

我们现在又开始逐步陷入国家建设，而这正是他两次竞选时所反对的事情。

Now we're starting to creep into nation building again, the very thing that he campaigned against twice now.

他并没有像克林顿总统、布什总统甚至奥巴马总统那样思考这个问题，比如试图增强该国的民主价值观和规范，或提升各国的生活水平。

He's not thinking about it in the way that previous presidents of president Clinton or president Bush or president Obama even might have talked about it, you know, trying to enhance democratic values and norms around the country or to raise up the standard of living in various countries.