伊朗处于边缘

我是大卫·马尔切塞。

I'm David Marchese.

我是露露·加西亚·纳瓦罗。

And I'm Lulu Garcia Navarro.

我们是《纽约时报》的《访谈》节目的主持人。

And we're the hosts of The Interview from The New York Times.

大卫和我一生都在采访世界上一些最有趣、最有影响力的人。

David and I have spent our careers interviewing some of the most interesting and influential people in the world.

这意味着我们知道何时该提出尖锐的问题，何时该退后倾听。

Which means we know when to ask tough questions and when to just sit back and listen.

现在，我们联手每周进行这些对话。

And now we've teamed up to have these conversations every week.

我们将努力揭示塑造我们世界的人们的一些特质。

We'll try to reveal something about the people shaping our world.

我们也会从他们那里听到一些精彩的故事。

And we'll get some great stories from them too.

这是《纽约时报》的访谈。

It's the interview from The New York Times.

在您收听播客的任何平台都可以收听。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

在

Over

过去一周，伊朗各地爆发了大规模抗议活动。

the past week, massive protests have erupted across Iran.

要求经济改革并推翻政权。

Calling for economic reform and an end to the regime.

最近几天，政府对抗议者的镇压行动全貌浮出水面，引发全球谴责。

In recent days, a full picture of the government's crackdown on the protesters has emerged, garnering worldwide condemnation

我们不希望看到伊朗发生的事情重演。

We don't wanna see what's happening in Iran happen.

以及特朗普总统威胁采取行动。

And threats of action from president Trump.

有一件事。

One thing.

当他们开始屠杀成千上万的人时，你现在却告诉我

When they start killing thousands of people and now you're telling me

关于绞刑，我们看看这对他们会有怎样的结果。

about hanging, We'll see how that works out for them.

这不会有什么好结果。

It's not gonna work out good.

来自《纽约时报》，我是蕾切尔·阿布拉姆斯，这里是《每日新闻》。

From The New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily.

今天，我的同事法纳兹·法西希将讲述是什么在推动抗议者，以及伊朗政权为何从未如此接近崩溃。

Today, my colleague Farnaz Fassihi on what's driving the protesters and why the Iranian regime has never been closer to collapse.

今天是1月14日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, January 14.

法纳兹，非常感谢你加入我们。

Farnaz, thank you so much for joining us.

谢谢您邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

法纳兹，你多年来一直报道伊朗，每当伊朗发生重大动荡和爆发事件时——而我们现在正身处这样的时刻——我们《每日新闻》都会向你寻求见解。

Farnaz, you have been covering Iran for decades, and we at The Daily turn to you during these huge moments of disruptions, eruptions, which is what it feels like we are in right now in Iran.

我们今天周二下午大约1点30分与你交谈，我想请你先描述一下当前伊朗实地的情况。

We're talking to you Tuesday afternoon at about 01:30PM, and I'd like for you to start off by characterizing what we are seeing on the ground right now.

过去一周，我们看到全国范围内爆发了抗议活动。

For the past week, we've seen nationwide protests

在伊朗各地大小城市、不同社会群体中，抗议浪潮席卷全国，唯一的要求就是推翻伊斯兰共和国的统治。

in cities big and small across different demographics erupt all across Iran with a singular demand for the end of the Islamic Republic's rule.

与此同时，还面临着来自美国和以色列的外部威胁——嗯。

And this is coupled with an external threat from The United States and Israel Mhmm.

可能对伊朗发动军事打击，再加上经济陷入崩溃，这给政府带来了前所未有的严峻挑战，因为它正面临一场完美的风暴。

That there might be a military strike on Iran and an economy that's in tailspin, which is creating a very unique and difficult challenge for the government because it's facing a kind of a perfect storm.

但我们还看到，政府正在对这些抗议活动进行残酷镇压，暴力清场正在发生，成千上万人丧生或受伤，随着死亡消息陆续传出，停尸房和墓地里尸体越堆越多。

But we're also seeing the government brutally responding to these protests and violent crackdown unfolding with thousands of people killed and injured, and bodies are piling up at the morgue and at the cemetery as reports of the killings trickle out.

正如你所说，政权正面临多重威胁，形成了一场完美风暴。

So as you said, it is a perfect storm of things that the regime is dealing with in terms of threats.

我想先谈谈抗议活动本身，以及国内正在发生的事情。

So I wanna start with the protests themselves and what's going on inside the country.

你能简单说说是什么促使人们走上街头吗？

Can you just talk a little bit about what's driving people to the streets?

人们已经忍无可忍了。

People are just fed up racial.

他们觉得已经没什么可失去的了，这个政府要么不愿、要么无力带来人们渴望的生活变革，从社会自由到政治自由，当然还有经济问题，这些都在推动着抗议活动。

They feel like they've got nothing to lose, that this government is either unwilling or incapable of bringing the kind of change that people want to see in their lives, ranging from social freedom to political freedom and, of course, the economy, which is fueling these protests.

我们必须记住，伊朗的经济多年来一直一团糟。

Now we have to remember that Iran's economy has been in shambles for years.

特朗普总统在2018年退出伊朗与世界大国之间的核协议后，重新对伊朗实施了制裁，目标直指其石油收入和国际银行体系。

President Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran targeting its oil revenues and international banking structures in 2018 when he exited the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

今年秋天，联合国安理会通过一种名为‘快速恢复’的机制，重新对伊朗实施了联合国制裁，这与伊朗同欧洲及美国在核问题上的对峙有关。

In the fall, the United Nations Security Council reimposed UN sanctions on Iran through a mechanism known as snapback related to Iran's standoff with Europeans and The United States over the nuclear program.

从那时起，货币贬值幅度比以往更加严重。

And from then, the currency started falling even further than it had before.

但在12月28日，里亚尔对美元汇率跌至历史最低点。

But in December on December 28, the real plunged to an all time low against the US dollar.

这引发了一波愤怒，因为当货币急剧贬值时，会直接影响通货膨胀和日常商品的价格，包括食品。

And it sort of unleashed this wave of anger because when the currency free falls, it has a direct impact on inflation and on the prices of everyday goods, including food items.

目前通货膨胀率约为60%。

Inflation is now around 60%.

食用油、大米、鸡蛋等伊朗家庭日常必需品的价格一夜之间翻了三倍。

Prices of everyday goods such as cooking oil, rice, eggs, like staples of an Iranian grocery basket suddenly tripled overnight.

因此，我们目前看到的这波抗议活动始于德黑兰的巴扎，那里实际上是伊朗经济的脉搏。

So this wave of protests that we're seeing now started in Tehran's bazaar, which is really the pulse of Iran's economy.

巴扎在这里相当于股票市场。

The bazaar is the equivalent of the stock market here.

对吧？

Right?

所以当巴扎罢市时，真的能让经济陷入瘫痪。

So when the bazaars go on strike, it really can paralyze the economy.

巴扎商人罢市的原因是里亚尔对美元持续下跌，物价剧烈波动，他们面临极大的不稳定性。

And the reason the bazaaries went on strike was because the real was plunging against the dollar, the prices were fluctuating, and they were facing too much instability.

你知道，他们每小时都得调整自己要采购和销售的商品价格，因为几个小时后他们根本不知道美元对里亚尔的汇率会变成什么样。

You know, from hour to hour, they had to adjust the prices of what they had to buy and what they had to procure and what they had to sell because they didn't know within a few hours what the price of, US dollar against the real was going to be.

他们感到必须向政府和央行施压，以稳定货币，因为我们无法再这样继续经营下去。

And there was a sense that we wanna put pressure on the government and the central bank to try to stabilize the currency because we just can't operate this way.

然后，抗议蔓延开了。

And then it spread.

它首先蔓延到工人阶级聚居区和经济落后的小镇，大约持续了一周，逐渐扩散开来。

It first spread to working class areas, to small towns that are underdeveloped, that are economically on a lower level, and it sort of percolated that way for about a week.

政府是如何应对这场日益加剧的动荡的？

And how did the government respond to all of this growing unrest?

政府最初采取了较为温和的语气，总统马苏德·佩扎什基安说：‘你们都是我的孩子。’

The government initially responded with a more conciliatory tone with the president Masood Pezashkyan saying, you're all my children.

抗议者有正当的理由进行抗议。

The protesters have a legitimate reason to protest.

我们理解，也感到难过。

We understand and we feel bad.

然后他迅速采取措施，试图遏制并安抚巴扎商人。

And then he moved very quickly to take measures that he thought would contain and appease particularly the bazaar.

他解雇了中央银行行长。

He sacked the governor of the central bank.

他还宣布了一项新的货币政策。

He also announced a new currency policy.

随后，政府宣布向每位伊朗人每月发放7美元补贴，但由于通货膨胀，这笔钱只能买一瓶食用油。

And then the government announced that it was giving every Iranian a monthly stipend of $7, which because of the inflation, it could only buy you a bottle of cooking oil.

但他采取的措施不仅几乎没有安抚民众，反而产生了相反的效果。

But the measures that he was taking not only did little to appease people, but they also had an opposite effect.

因此，这进一步强化了人们的感受：掌权者根本不知道自己在做什么，情况也不会好转。

So it sort of reinforced this feeling that the people who were in charge don't really know what they're doing and things are not gonna get better.

这进一步激化了愤怒。

And that fueled more anger.

引发了更多的愤慨。

That sparked more outrage.

而且，你知道，民众的情绪正在不断积累，越来越多的人走上街头，高呼‘够了’。

And, you know, momentum was sort of building for people to come out in larger numbers and say enough is enough.

所以我们谈论的这场危机，听起来主要是由不断恶化的经济引发的。

So we're talking about a crisis that is largely sparked, it sounds like, from this spiraling economy.

但我认为，许多听者会想起几年前那场始于女性权利的抗议活动。

But I think that a lot of people who are listening to this are gonna remember another protest just a few years ago that started over women's rights.

当时也有人质疑，这些抗议和动荡是否真的会推翻政权。

And there was a question then too about whether these protests, whether this unrest would actually topple the regime.

显然，那一次并没有发生。

Obviously, that did not happen.

但你能再多谈一点吗？为什么伊朗人对政府的不满，不仅仅局限于你刚才提到的经济原因？

But can you talk a little bit more about why more broadly Iranians are unhappy with the government that goes beyond the economic reasons you've just laid out?

伊朗社会与统治它的政府和宗教学者截然不同。

The Iranian society is very different from the government and clerics that rule it.

大多数人的宗教信仰远不如国家所期望和强制推行的那样虔诚。

The majority of people are a lot less religious than what the state wants and what the state has has enforced.

他们并不认同上世纪七十年代伊斯兰共和国那种反美、反帝国主义的意识形态。

They are not ideological, sort of the ideology of the Islamic Republic of the nineteen seventies where we're anti American, we're anti imperialist.

这种意识形态在一代又一代人中逐渐淡化。

That has faded in generation after generation.

正如我们在视频中看到的那样，年轻一代，包括你提到的女性领导的起义，渴望一种不同的生活。

And the younger generation, as we've seen in videos coming out, in protests of of the women led uprising that you mentioned, want a different kind of a life.

他们深度融入社交媒体。

They are super plugged in on social media.

他们看到世界上其他地方的人们如何生活，看到其他国家的同龄人——不仅在欧洲和美国，还有土耳其、迪拜，以及其他穆斯林国家。

They see how the rest of the world is living, how their counterparts in other countries, not just in Europe and The US, but in Turkey, in Dubai, in, you know, other Muslim countries.

他们享有社会自由。

They have social freedom.

他们拥有经济繁荣。

They have economic prosperity.

他们在说，为什么不是我们？

And they're saying, why not us?

伊朗是一个资源非常丰富的国家。

Iran's a very resource rich country.

它拥有石油资源和能源资源。

It has oil resources, energy resources.

我从许多伊朗人那里听到的是，这不是我们应得的政府和制度。

And what I hear from many Iranians is that this is not a government and a system that we deserve.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们必须记住，在过去二十年里，伊朗发生了多波民主抗议浪潮，始于1999年的学生运动、2008年的绿色运动，以及2022年由女性领导的抗议和起义。

We have to remember that over the past two decades, there have been waves of pro democracy protests happening in Iran starting with the student activist movement in 1999, the green movement in 2008, the women led protests, an uprising in 2022.

所有这些抗议都是由国内的活动人士和反对派领袖发起、动员和组织的，比如伊朗最著名的人权活动家纳尔吉斯·穆罕默米，她是诺贝尔和平奖得主，目前仍在狱中，许多人将她视为这场民主运动的领袖。

All of them grassroots and mobilized and organized by activists and leading opposition figures inside the country, such as Iran's most prominent human rights activist, Narges Mohammedi, who's a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who's currently in jail, and many people look up to her as a leader of this pro democracy movement.

因此，我们看到所有这些力量在伊朗各地的街头交织作用。

So we see all of these forces at play on the streets across Iran.

在我们看到的那些广为传播的抗议视频中，人群高呼‘独裁者去死’、‘压迫者去死’，无论是国王还是最高领袖。

In videos that we're seeing coming from the protests that have gone viral, we hear crowds chanting death to the dictator, death to the oppressor, whether be it king or the supreme leader.

神职人员滚开。

Clerics get lost.

我们还听到人群高呼‘沙阿万岁’，这是对伊朗末代君主穆罕默德·礼萨·巴列维的引用，他在1979年革命中被推翻，这似乎是一种对革命前时代的怀旧呼唤。

We're also hearing crowds chant, long live the Shah, a reference to the last monarch of Iran, Muhammad Razoshat Pahlavi, who was toppled in the nineteen seventy nine revolution in what seems to be a nostalgic call for an era that Iranians remember pre the revolution.

我们看到年轻男女在首都德黑兰及其他城市的各个角落聚集，高举拳头高喊‘自由’。

And we're seeing young men and women crowds forming in in different parts of the capital in Tehran and other cities, fists in the air chanting, freedom.

自由。

Freedom.

所以

So

这听起来像是伊朗人民与其领导层之间深刻脱节的最终体现，而正如你所说，领导层最初至少对这场运动及其诉求表现出同情。

it sounds like this is really the culmination of a deep disconnect between the Iranian people and its leadership, which at least, as you said, initially, seemed sympathetic to the movement and its concerns.

但显然，我们知道局势已经变得非常血腥、敌对且暴力。

But clearly, we know that the situation has turned very bloody and very hostile and violent.

我想知道这种转变是什么时候发生的？在实地，我们看到了哪些暴力行为？

And I wonder when did that switch happen, and what have we seen in terms of the violence that's gone on on the ground?

政府言辞的转变始于最高领袖哈梅内伊发表公开演讲时。

The change of rhetoric from the government started when the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei delivered a public speech.

他将抗议者称为暴徒，并称他们是美国和以色列的代理人。

Labeling protesters as rioters and saying they were the agents of The United States and Israel.

他们正在破坏国家，为伊朗的敌人服务。

And they were destabilizing the country working for Iran's enemies.

伊朗首席司法部门也表示，对任何被捕者都不会宽恕，并以广泛破坏公共财产、焚烧汽车，甚至袭击清真寺和警察局为由，为镇压行动辩护。

Iran's chief judiciary also said that there would be no mercy for anyone arrested and justified the crackdowns by pointing out to widespread vandalism and burning of public properties and cars and even attacks on mosques and police stations that they had seen.

而且

And

然后在周四，当街头的人群增多，对自由的呼声愈发响亮时。

then on Thursday, when the crowds swelled in the streets, And the cries for freedom grew louder.

请闭嘴，请闭嘴。

Please shut Please shut up.

政府切断了互联网，使整个国家陷入一片黑暗。

The government unplugged the Internet and plunged the country into total darkness.

他们封锁了所有国际来电和去电，导致外界很难了解实际情况。

They blocked incoming and outgoing international calls, making it really difficult for anyone outside to get visibility about what was really going on.

国内的手机信号也遭到干扰，这似乎是为阻止人们组织和动员抗议活动。

Cell phone reception inside the country has also been disrupted in what seems to be an effort to try to stop people from organizing and mobilizing protests.

到周日，一幅大屠杀正在伊朗上演的画面逐渐浮现。

By Sunday, a picture was emerging that a massacre was unfolding in Iran.

我通过卫星互联网与抗议者、医生、护士以及身处现场的人取得了联系，他们或许能接触到这种网络。

I've been able to communicate to protesters, to doctors, nurses, and people who've been on the ground through satellite Internet connection that they may be able to find.

我交谈过的每一位抗议者都亲眼目睹有人在他们面前被枪杀。

Everyone that I spoke to who's been out to protest has seen someone get shot and killed in front of him.

有两个人告诉我，他们在城市的不同区域看到了狙击手向人群开枪。

Two people told me that they saw snipers in two different parts of the city shooting down at the crowds.

一位身处德黑兰市中心的朋友描述了保安部队用机枪扫射年轻人群的恐怖场景，一群男女青年倒在血泊中，人们互相跌倒压在一起。

A friend who was in Central Tehran described a horrific scene of security forces gunning down young people, a young crowd of men and women with machine guns, and people falling on top of each other.

我联系到的护士和医生描述了医院里发生的极端恐怖景象：人们被近距离射中头部、躯干，甚至从背后中弹。

Nurses and doctors that I've been able to connect with described absolutely horrific scenes unfolding at hospitals, people shot at close range in the head, in the torso, from the back.

一段广为传播的视频记录了一位伊朗野生动物摄影师，赛迪尔·帕尔维兹·扎德。

One video that went viral was of a Iranian wildlife photographer, Saadir Parvis Zadeh.

他的脸上满是鲜血，血滴不断落下，他对着镜头说：‘对保安部队，你们怎么忍心向自己的同胞开枪？’

His face is bloody blood dripping from his face, and he's addressing the camera saying To the security forces, how can you fire your own countrymen?

对他们来说，杀人就像玩游戏一样。

Killing a person is like a game for them.

我以神的名义发誓，我们也是这个国家的公民。

I swear to God, we're also citizens of this country.

我们感到痛苦。

We have pain.

我们从德黑兰太平间看到的视频显示，尸体被装进袋子，堆放在停车场和地上，家属们哭喊着，试图在尸体中辨认出自己的亲人。

Videos we're seeing from Tehran's morgue show bodies in bags piled in the parking lot and on the ground, and families wailing and screaming as they're going through them trying to identify their loved ones.

这种暴力和残酷的程度，是我三十年报道伊朗以来从未见过的。

This is a level of violence and cruelty that I haven't seen in the thirty years that I've been covering Iran.

法纳兹，你所描述的这一切，对许多人来说简直恐怖得难以想象。

What you are describing, Farnaz, is just horrific and inconceivable, I think, to a lot of people.

整个伊朗到处都是惨烈的场景。

Just the scenes of absolute carnage all over Iran.

我想知道，这种镇压的残酷手段，究竟是让政权成功平息了抗议，还是反而激起了民众更强烈的反抗意志。

And I wonder whether the brutality of this response is working for the regime in terms of actually quelling the protests, or whether it perhaps is having an opposite effect on people and what they're willing to do in the face of all of this opposition.

局势非常动荡。

The situation is very fluid.

抗议活动已引起国际关注，并对伊朗政府施加了压力。

The protests have attracted international attention, pressure on the Iranian government.

嗯。

Mhmm.

当然，还有美国是否会采取军事行动对付伊朗这一不可预测的因素。

And, of course, the unpredictable variable of whether The United States is going to take military action against Iran.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我叫尼娜·菲尔德曼。

My name is Nina Feldman.

我是《每日新闻》的制片人。

I'm a producer on The Daily.

我最近参与制作了一期关于减肥药物如司美格鲁肽如何颠覆一段婚姻的节目。

I recently worked on an episode about how weight loss drugs like Ozempic turned a marriage upside down.

这个故事由丽莎·米勒报道。

This story was reported by Lisa Miller.

丽莎花了大量时间与这对夫妇相处。

Lisa spent so much time with this couple.

她建立了真诚的联系，让他们感到舒适，愿意分享他们非常私密的故事。

She built this genuine connection that allowed them to feel comfortable sharing their really intimate story.

他们甚至希望亲自在《每日新闻》中讲述这个故事，以帮助人们以一种全新的方式理解这些新型药物。

And they even wanted to tell it in their own words with us at The Daily to help people understand these new drugs in a totally different way.

《每日新闻》依赖像丽莎这样的记者，投入时间建立这些联系，讲述独特的故事，并确保一切准确无误。

The Daily relies on journalists like Lisa, investing time into building these connections, telling a unique story, and making sure that they get it exactly right.

《纽约时报》的订阅者让这一切成为可能。

New York Times subscribers make this possible.

如果你已经是订阅者，非常感谢你。

If you're already a subscriber, thank you so much.

如果你还不是，可以通过订阅《纽约时报》成为其中一员。

If you're not, you can become one by subscribing to The New York Times.

韦尔纳兹，在这次对话开始时，我们谈到了伊朗的内部力量和外部力量。

Vernaz, at the beginning of this conversation, we talked about internal forces on Iran and external forces on Iran.

现在我想谈谈外部因素。

So I wanna go external now.

你能谈谈发生在伊朗境外、导致当前局面并产生如此重大影响的事情吗？

Can you talk about what has happened outside of Iran that has led to this moment and had such an impact?

请记住，伊朗刚刚经历了一个非常艰难的年份。

Remember that Iran has had a really tough year.

六月，伊朗与以色列爆发了一场激烈的十二天战争，嗯。

In June, Iran had a intense twelve day war with Israel Mhmm.

以色列对伊朗的军事结构发动了突然袭击，摧毁了其军事指挥链和核科学家。

When Israel launched surprise attacks on Iran's military structure and took out its military command chain and nuclear scientists.

伊朗曾用一系列弹道导弹反击以色列，但这场战争暴露了伊朗在自我防御能力上的薄弱。

Iran was able to strike Israel with a barrage of ballistic missiles, but that war exposed Iran's weakness in terms of being able to defend itself.

当然，这场战争以美国介入并轰炸、严重破坏伊朗的核设施而告终。

And the war, of course, culminated with The United States getting involved and bombing and severely damaging Iran's nuclear facilities.

这里另一个正在发生的变化是伊朗的地区地位发生了改变。

Another dynamic at play here is that Iran's regional standing has changed.

它在该地区支持和资助的武装盟友，比如黎巴嫩的真主党和加沙的哈马斯，已被以色列重创并削弱。

Its militant allies around the region that it helps arm and fund, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been decimated and weakened by Israel.

伊朗曾依赖这些团体，特别是真主党和其在叙利亚的基地，作为施加压力的手段，以及一种前沿防御：它会说，如果你攻击我，我也可以反击，在整个地区制造麻烦。

Iran had counted on these groups, particularly Hezbollah and and Syria, the base that it had in Syria, as a way to exert pressure and as sort of a forward defense that it would say, well, if you attack me, I can also fire and create problems across the region.

从这个意义上说，伊朗确实被严重削弱了。

In that sense, Iran has really been weakened.

我们该如何看待这一切？

How should we be accounting for all of that?

这种耻辱和明显的脆弱性，是否正是当前街头抗议者们心中所想的？

The embarrassment, the evident vulnerability, is that on the minds of these protesters that we're seeing out on the streets now?

当然。

Of course.

我认为，所有这些都助长了这种势头，让走上街头的人们更加大胆，觉得也许这就是关键时刻。

I think that all of this feeds into the momentum where it emboldens people taking to the streets thinking maybe this is the moment.

我们已经讨论过，目前一个很大的未解之谜是美国将如何回应。

We've talked about how one big open question right now is how The United States is going to respond.

特朗普总统多次表示，他愿意采取行动支持抗议者。

And president Trump has said on multiple occasions, he's willing to take action in defense of the protesters.

周二，他甚至在Truth Social上发帖，敦促人们继续抗议。

On Tuesday, even he put a post on Truth Social urging people to continue protesting.

他说，他们将付出巨大代价，指的是政权。

He said that they will pay a big price, referring to the regime.

那么，我们对这个政权如何看待总统及其威胁了解多少？

So what do we know about how the regime is thinking about the president and his threats?

伊朗领导层非常认真地对待特朗普总统发出的威胁和言论。

Iran's leadership is taking the threats and rhetoric coming from president Trump very seriously.

他们当然有过美国轰炸核设施的经验。

They, of course, have the experience of The US bombing the nuclear facilities.

还有委内瑞拉发生的事情。

But also what happened in Venezuela

对。

Right.

这让他们深受震动，因为他们觉得特朗普总统不是在虚张声势，他真的会付诸行动。

Really rattled them because there was this sense that president Trump is not bluffing, and he'll actually carry out what he says.

根据我与几位政府官员的交谈，我们知道伊朗国家安全委员会召开了一次紧急会议，讨论如何做好准备。

From my conversations with a few government officials, we know that the Iran's National Security Council conducted an emergency meeting to talk about how they would prepare.

我知道伊朗武装部队已进入最高戒备状态，以防备可能的袭击。

I know that Iran's armed forces have been put on the highest alert possible, anticipating an attack.

政府表示，如果美国攻击我们，我们将对美国在该地区的目标、船只和军事基地进行有力报复，并且还会攻击以色列。

And the government has said that if The US attacks us, we are going to retaliate forcefully against American targets and ships and military bases in the region, and we will also attack Israel.

所以看起来他们正在为战争做准备。

So it seems like they're preparing for war.

这里还有一些更广泛的背景我们不应忽视，即特朗普总统与伊朗的关系多年来一直极为敌对。

There's also some broader context that we should not neglect here about the relationship between president Trump and Iran, which has for years been extremely antagonistic.

在特朗普的第一个任期内，总统下令杀死了伊朗的最高将领，这导致伊朗策划了一起针对特朗普总统的暗杀行动。

During the first Trump administration, president Trump killed Iran's top general that led to an Iranian assassination plot against president Trump.

但最近我与新闻室中负责报道该政府的同事们进行了大量对话，探讨我刚才描述的这些情况是否以及如何影响特朗普的决策。

But I've also been having a lot of conversations more recently with colleagues in the newsroom who cover the administration about how, if at all, any of that that I've just described plays into Trump's decision making.

他们告诉我，有各种不同的看法，这可能现在关乎政权更迭。

And they've told me a range of answers that this could be about regime change right now.

这也可能关乎石油，但同样关乎权力以及特朗普如何运用权力。

It could also be about oil, but it is also about power and how Trump exerts it.

所以我想知道，法纳兹，你对这一切有何看法？试图将所有这些背景、历史以及我们最近看到的总统言论综合起来理解。

So I wonder what you make of all of this, Farnaz, just trying to put together all of this context history and the latest comments we've seen from the president.

你如何评估美国考虑采取这些行动的原因？

What is your assessment about sort of why The United States is considering some of this action?

我们并不确定特朗普总统的动机是什么。

Well, we don't know for sure what president Trump's motivations are.

我们甚至不知道他是否会真的推翻伊朗政权。

We don't even know if he's going to go ahead and topple the Iranian regime.

他此前曾表示，美国不再希望参与国家建设或政权更迭。

He has said previously that The US does not wanna engage in nation building and regime change anymore.

但也不排除特朗普认为推翻伊朗政府会带来一些好处，因为这将终结伊朗与美国近五十年的敌对关系。

But it's also possible that president Trump sees some benefits to eliminating the Iranian government's rule because it would end nearly five decades of animosity between Iran and The United States.

这还将移除一个不仅对美国、而且对以色列也持敌对态度的政权。

It would also remove a government that has been hostile to not just The United States, but also to Israel.

还有一种微小的可能性是，这有助于重新调整中东格局，从而有利于并保障美国的利益。

There's also a slight chance that this could help realign the Middle East in ways that could benefit and secure American interests.

当然，伊朗是一个石油资源丰富的国家，因此能源因素也不容忽视。

And, of course, Iran is an oil rich country, so there's also the energy factor there too.

但我们从历史中，包括最近的历史得知，对中东的军事干预伴随着巨大的风险。

But we also know from history, including recent history, that military interventions in The Middle East carries enormous risks.

我曾是中东的战地记者。

I was a war correspondent in The Middle East.

我报道了阿富汗战争及其后续影响、伊拉克和叙利亚的局势。

I covered the Afghanistan war and its aftermath, Iraq, Syria.

我们看到，美国凭借其军事实力可以赢得战争，却无法赢得长期的战争或长期的和平。

And we've seen that The US can win the military war because of its military might, but it can't win the long war or the long peace.

在美国干预的其他地方，比如伊拉克，稳定和顺利过渡一直难以实现。

That stability and a smooth transition have been elusive in other places where The US intervened, namely Iraq.

嗯。

Mhmm.

美国与伊朗自身的历史也充满波折。

The United States' own history with Iran is also checkered.

1953年，美国干预并推翻了民选总理摩萨台的政府，通过中央情报局的政变重新扶植了沙阿。

In 1953, The United States intervened and toppled a democratically elected government of prime minister Mossadegh and reinstalled the Shah through a CIA coup.

许多伊朗人会告诉你，这扼杀了伊朗走向民主或共和的道路。

And many Iranians will tell you that that killed the path that the country was on toward becoming a democracy or a republic.

几十年内，伊朗爆发了伊斯兰革命。

And within a few decades, it exploded in an Islamic revolution.

你知道，政权和政府通常要么因内部叛变和政变而垮台，要么因军事干预而倒台。

And, you know, usually regimes and governments are toppled either by defections and coups inside or by military interventions.

我们没有看到伊朗武装部队官兵中有任何重大叛变。

We haven't seen any major defections among the military ranks of Iran's armed forces.

我们也没有看到政治阶层中有任何叛变。

We haven't seen defections among the political class.

所以目前，没有任何迹象表明内部会发生什么变化。

So right now, there's no sign that something's gonna happen from within.

基于我们讨论过的所有原因，军事干预推翻政府实际上可能带来多年的不稳定。

And for all the reasons that we have discussed, a military intervention to topple the government could actually bring about years of instability.

这种不稳定对纳斯来说会是什么样子？

What might that instability look like for Nas?

我认为，首先，关于伊朗未来会是什么样子，以及各种反对派团体目前非常分裂，甚至没有统一的愿景，这场斗争正在持续。

Well, I think for one thing, the fight for what Iran's future might be, what kind of a various opposition groups that are very divided and don't have a unified vision even currently.

那么这种情况会如何发展呢？

So how would that play out?

伊朗境内有一些少数民族，他们渴望分离或联邦制。

There are ethnic minorities in Iran that have aspirations for separatism, for federalism.

此外，该地区还存在一些势力，包括伊斯兰国恐怖分子和激进伊斯兰力量，他们可能像在伊拉克和叙利亚那样，看到伊朗出现权力真空后涌入该国，并将其作为权力基地。

There are also forces in the region, including the Islamic State terrorists, including militant Islamic forces that might, like they did in Iraq, like they did in Syria, might see a power vacuum in Iran and pour into the country and use that as a power base.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们还必须记住，伊朗政府至少拥有约10%的支持基础。

And also, we have to also remember that the Iranian government does have a support base of about at least, like, 10%.

它确实拥有忠于它的革命卫队和准军事力量。

It does have armed revolutionary guards and paramilitary force that are loyal to it.

因此，你也可能看到一种情况：他们会组建武装叛乱势力，对抗未来的任何政府。

So you could see also a scenario where they would form armed insurgencies and fight whatever is the next government.

这些都不是幻想，重要的是要保持清醒和冷静的视角，看清可能的选择和结果。

These are scenarios that are not fantasies, and it's important to keep a clear eye and sober view of what the options are and what the outcomes may be.

法纳兹，你曾见证并报道了伊朗数十年来的多次起义。

Farnaz, you have seen and covered decades worth of uprisings in Iran.

我想知道，如果最终伊朗没有任何实质性的改变，现状依然如故，这对伊朗民众的心理以及当前冒着巨大个人风险走上街头的人们意味着什么？

And I wonder what you think it would do to the Iranian psyche and to the people who are in the streets right now at such great personal risk if ultimately nothing really changes in Iran and the status quo remains?

当前伊朗的起义为伊朗国内民众和关注本国事态发展的海外侨民带来了一线光明与希望。

The current uprising in Iran has created a sliver of light and hope for Iranians inside and for the diaspora watching what's unfolding in their country.

我认为，当人们感到变革与自由近在咫尺，却最终被扼杀时，那将是毁灭性的、令人心碎的。

And I think for people to feel they're so close to change and to freedom and for it to be crushed would be devastating, would be heartbreaking.

但我认为这并不会终结伊朗人民的追求。

But I don't think it would be the end of the aspirations of the Iranian people.

我认为，无论政府动用多大的武力、实施多严厉的镇压，它或许能暂时扑灭抗议，却无法扼杀梦想——正如它在过去数次抗议中始终未能做到的那样。

I think no matter how much force the government uses and the level of crackdowns, it can crush protests periodically, but it can't kill the dream as it hasn't been able to in previous protests.

这些抗议活动多年来层层递进、不断积累。

The protests have built upon each other over the years.

而这一次我听到和看到的是，伊朗人民已经失去了恐惧。

And what I hear this time and what I see is that the Iranian people have lost their fear.

法纳兹，非常感谢你。

Farnaz, thank you so much.

谢谢您邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

以下是今天您需要了解的其他内容。

Here's what else you need to know today.

周二，明尼苏达州的六名联邦检察官因抗议司法部试图调查雷内·古德遗孀而辞职，雷内·古德是上周被移民与海关执法局特工杀害的抗议者。

On Tuesday, six federal prosecutors in Minnesota resigned in protest over the justice department's push to investigate the widow of Renee Good, the protester killed by an ICE agent last week.

据报道，至少有一名检察官约瑟夫·汤普森也反对司法部拒绝调查枪手的行为。

At least one of the prosecutors, Joseph Thompson, reportedly also objected to the department's refusal to investigate the shooter.

约翰逊和另一名检察官一直主导着近几周来令该州动荡不已的广泛欺诈调查。

Johnson and another prosecutor were leading the sprawling fraud investigation that has roiled the state in recent weeks.

比尔和希拉里·克林顿拒绝就国会针对杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的调查作证，这加剧了与肯塔基州共和党众议员詹姆斯·科默长达数月的争执。科默担任监督委员会主席，并表示将以藐视国会罪追究这对夫妇的责任。

And Bill and Hillary Clinton are refusing to testify in the congressional investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, escalating a months long battle with the Republican representative James Comer of Kentucky, who chairs the oversight committee and who said he would hold the couple in contempt.

推动的策略

The strategy to push

迫使克林顿夫妇作证的战略反映了科默的整体策略：通过将焦点转向同样与已被定罪的性犯罪者及其长期同伴吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦有关的知名民主党人，来转移对特朗普总统的关注。

the Clintons to testify reflects Comer's overall approach, Deflect focus from president Trump by redirecting it to prominent Democrats who also associated with the convicted sex offender and his longtime companion, Ghislain Maxwell.

本集节目由穆奇·萨迪、罗谢尔·邦贾和杰西卡·钟制作，瑞奇·内维茨基提供了协助。

Today's episode was produced by Mooch Sadie, Rochelle Bonja, and Jessica Chung with help from Ricky Nevetsky.

由迈克尔·贝努瓦和帕特里夏·威伦斯编辑。

It was edited by Michael Benoit and Patricia Willens.

配乐由黛安·王、马里恩·洛萨诺和帕特·麦库斯克制作，由艾丽莎·莫克斯利进行技术制作。

Contains music by Diane Wong, Marion Lozano, and Pat McCusker, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley.

以上就是今天的《每日新闻》。

That's it for The Daily.

我是瑞秋·艾布拉姆斯。

I'm Rachel Abrams.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.