Netflix对决派拉蒙：华纳兄弟背后的史诗级商战内幕

《纽约时报》应用里有很多你可能没见过的内容。

The New York Times app has all this stuff that you may not have seen.

这种方式

The way

标签页位于顶部，包含所有不同板块。

the tabs are at the top with all of the different sections.

我可以立即跳转到符合我当下心情的内容。

I can immediately navigate to something that matches what I'm feeling.

我总是先玩填字游戏。

I order games always.

做迷你填字。

Doing the mini.

玩Wordle猜词。

Doing the Wordle.

我很喜欢它能让我接触到这么多内容。

I loved how much content it exposed me to.

那些我从未想过会通过新闻应用获取的内容。

Things that I never would have thought to turn to a news app for.

这款应用必不可少。

This app is essential.

《纽约时报》应用。

The New York Times app.

所有资讯，尽在一处。

All of the times, all in one place.

立即在nytimes.com/app下载。

Download it now at nytimes.com/app.

这里是《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·比尔巴罗。

From New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro.

这里是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

听Netflix首席执行官说，他830亿美元收购华纳兄弟影业的提议将使所有人受益。

To hear the CEO of Netflix tell it, his $83,000,000,000 offer to buy Warner Brothers Studios will benefit everyone.

我们认为与华纳兄弟的这笔交易对股东有利。

We think this deal with Warner Brothers is good for shareholders.

我们认为这对消费者有利。

We think it's good for consumers.

我们认为这对创作者有利。

We think it's good for creators.

我们认为这对整个娱乐产业都非常有益。

We think it's great for the entertainment industry as a whole.

听派拉蒙CEO的说法，同样的报价是一场垄断性灾难。

To hear the CEO of Paramount tell it, that same offer is a monopolistic disaster.

允许排名第一的流媒体服务与排名第三的流媒体服务合并是反竞争的。

Allowing the number one streaming service to combine with the number three streaming service is anti competitive.

这就好比说可口可乐可以收购百事可乐。

That's like saying Coke can buy Pepsi.

今天，我们将探讨震撼好莱坞的巨额交易、由此引发的竞争性敌意收购要约，以及这一切对电视电影行业的未来意味着什么——对我们所有观众意味着什么。

Today, the blockbuster deal that is rocking Hollywood, the competing hostile takeover bid that it's inspired, and what it all means for the future of TV and film, and for all of us, the viewers.

我与三位同事进行了交谈，他们分别是妮可·斯珀林、凯尔·布坎南和劳伦·赫希。

I spoke with three of my colleagues, Nicole Sperling, Kyle Buchanan, and Lauren Hirsch.

今天是12月9日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, December 9.

欢迎三位参加首期好莱坞圆桌会议特别版。

I wanna welcome the three of you to the first ever edition of the roundtable Hollywood edition.

劳伦·赫希。

Lauren Hirsch.

你好。

Hello.

很高兴你能来到演播室。

Nice to have you in the studio.

还有从洛杉矶及周边地区加入我们的妮可·斯珀林。

And joining us from Los Angeles and its environs, Nicole Sperling.

很高兴你能参与。

Nice to have you on.

你好。

Hello.

还有凯尔·布坎南。

And Kyle Buchanan.

感谢你为我们抽出时间。

Thanks for making time for us.

嗨，迈克尔。

Hi, Michael.

我们通常组织这些讨论小组是为了解读政治和政府领域的重大时刻，但商界这次给了我们一个如此重大、高风险且充满戏剧性的故事，我认为它无法仅由一位嘉宾来涵盖。

So we usually put together these panels to make sense of major moments in politics and government, but the world of business gave us a story so big and so high stakes and so theatrical that it could not be contained, I believe, to a single guest.

这个故事当然就是关于谁将掌控华纳兄弟影业公司——这家好莱坞传奇机构的争夺战正在浮现，这也是我们邀请三位来讨论的原因。

And that story, of course, is the emerging fight over who will control Warner Brothers Studios, this storied Hollywood institution, which is why we've asked the three of you on.

我想先说明一下各位能为这次对话带来什么见解。

And I just wanna explain what each of you bring to the conversation.

妮可，你负责报道Netflix流媒体业务和好莱坞的商业动态。

Nicole, you write about Netflix streaming and the business of Hollywood.

我的描述准确吗？

Am I capturing you correctly?

是的。

Yes.

没错。

That is correct.

凯尔，你为《纽约时报》报道电影及相关演员和导演。

Kyle, you cover the movies for the Times and the actors and the directors involved in making them.

你每周都出色地撰写人物特稿，并追踪报道颁奖季动态。

You brilliantly profile them week in, week out, and you cover the awards season.

这样的介绍够全面吗？

Does that do you justice?

马克，你只说了个皮毛。

That scratched the surface, Mark.

谢谢。

Thank you.

而且只是表面。

And only the surface.

还有，劳伦，你负责撰写企业并购相关的报道，并且一直深入参与这笔具体交易的细节。

And, Lauren, you write about corporate mergers, and you've been steeped in the details of this particular deal.

是的。

Yes.

好的。

Okay.

为了给我们一个大致的方向，本次对话将重点讨论华纳兄弟探索公司最终落入当前两大主要竞购方手中的影响。

So just to give us a little bit of a road map, we're gonna spend a lot of time in this conversation talking through the implications of Warner Brothers discovery ending up in the hands of either of its current major suitors.

但我想我们必须从董事会层面开始，因为事情确实是从那里开始的。

But I think we have to start at the boardroom level because that's literally where it begins.

这场争夺战涉及众多传媒大亨和数十亿美元的媒体品牌。

There are a lot of moguls and multibillion dollar media brands involved in this battle.

因此我们将逐一介绍每位主要参与者。

And so we're gonna bring each of the major players on stage one by one.

凯尔，给我们简要介绍一下这个故事的主角——华纳兄弟。

Kyle, give us the cliff notes version of the protagonist of this story, Warner Brothers.

好的。

Yeah.

华纳兄弟是好莱坞的皇冠明珠之一。

Warner Brothers is one of Hollywood's crown jewels.

它已存在超过百年历史。

It's been around over a hundred years.

创立于好莱坞的黄金时代。

It was founded in Hollywood's golden age.

从《卡萨布兰卡》到《蝙蝠侠》都出自其手。

It's made movies from Casablanca to Batman.

我前几天还在他们的外景地，走到哪里都能触摸到影视历史的痕迹。

You know, I was on that back lot the other day, and you're walking past film and TV history wherever you go.

现在由大卫·扎斯拉夫执掌，他是在华纳与探索频道合并时加入的。

It's run by a guy named David Zaslov, who came over when Warner Brothers merged with Discovery.

自那次合并以来，这条路走得有些坎坷。

And it's been a little bit of a rocky road since that merger.

为什么？

Why?

嗯，你知道的，探索频道现在有很多经营不善的电视频道，包括CNN在内的许多有线频道，他们正试图以某种方式摆脱这些包袱。

Well, you know, Discovery has a lot of flailing television channels at this point, a lot of cable channels, which includes CNN that they're trying to get rid of in some fashion.

因此外界一直预期华纳兄弟探索公司会被挂牌出售或分拆。

So there's been an expectation that Warner Brothers Discovery would be up for sale or broken up into parts.

当然，其中一部分资产就是电视界的黄金标准——HBO。

And, of course, one of those parts is HBO, the gold standard of television.

没错。

Yes.

劳伦，我想这正是你该加入讨论的时候，因为华纳兄弟探索公司可能被分拆或出售的情况，引出了我们故事中的第二个主角——派拉蒙。

Lauren, I think this is where you come into the conversation because the realization that Warner Brothers Discovery is going to be broken up, potentially sold, brings in our second protagonist in this story, which is Paramount.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么请快速给我们讲讲派拉蒙在这场对决中的背景故事。

So just give us the quick backstory of Paramount's place in this showdown.

在现在的派拉蒙天舞之前，原本的天舞公司由大卫·埃里森运营，他是甲骨文创始人拉里·埃里森的儿子。

Before Paramount Skydance, as it's now known, there was Skydance, which was run by David Ellison, the son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison.

确实是非常富有的家族。

Really rich family.

确实是非常富有的家族，这对这个故事很重要。

Really rich family, which is important to this story.

拉里资助了大卫收购派拉蒙的交易，这笔交易在几个月前刚刚完成。

Larry helped finance David's acquisition of Paramount, which just closed a couple months ago.

我们应该说明那是个非常小的品牌。

And we should just say that was a very small brand.

品牌是个非常非常大的品牌。

Brand was a very very huge brand.

非常大的品牌。

Very huge brand.

它拥有CBS。

It has CBS.

它拥有制作《教父》《碟中谍》的工作室。

It has the studio behind The Godfather, Mission Impossible.

这是一家巨头企业。

It's a huge company.

突然间，大卫·埃里森就以传媒大亨的身份登场了。

And all of a sudden, David Ellison comes on the scene as a media mogul.

但同样显而易见的是，与华纳兄弟探索的扎斯拉夫和网飞的萨兰多斯相比，他只是个小媒体大亨。

But what also becomes very evident is he is a small media mogul in comparison to David Zaslov over at WBD, Ted Sarandos at Netflix.

当前传媒行业真正重要的是流媒体业务，而派拉蒙+的流媒体业务与那些巨头相比只是九牛一毛。

What's really important right now in media is streaming, and Paramount Plus Paramount streaming business is a drop in the bucket when compared to those.

没错。

Right.

流媒体领域无可争议的领导者是拥有约3亿用户的网飞。

The undisputed leader of streaming is Netflix with about 300,000,000.

我认为Paramount Plus大约有8000万订阅用户。

I think Paramount Plus is at about 80,000,000 subscribers.

所以数量要少得多。

So so many fewer.

没错。

Right.

坦白说，埃里森战略的关键，甚至在他们完成收购派拉蒙之前，就是买下华纳兄弟探索公司。

And so key to Ellison's strategy, frankly, even before they closed his purchase of Paramount, was buying Warner Brothers Discovery.

所以一旦华纳兄弟探索公司明确表示可能考虑某种选择，比如拆分业务，大卫·埃里森就迅速行动了，他已经多次出价试图收购华纳兄弟。

So once Warner Brothers Discovery made clear that it might be considering some kind of option, like splitting its business in half, David Ellison pounced, and he has made a number of bids trying to buy Warner Brothers.

总结得很到位。

Great summary.

当然，这就引出了妮可和Netflix，他们显然清楚华纳兄弟处境不妙，可能要被出售，而派拉蒙也盯上了它。

And that, of course, brings us to Nicole, Netflix, which clearly understands that Warner Brothers is kind of in trouble, maybe up for sale, and that Paramount has its eyes on it.

是的。

Yes.

它是行业巨头。

And it's the giant.

正是它改变了电影产业。

It is the one that has transformed the movie industry.

Netflix曾是后起之秀。

Netflix was the upstart.

它是颠覆者。

It was the disruptor.

当他们进入并开始流媒体业务时，促使其他所有制片厂都开始自己的流媒体业务，背负巨额债务来构建庞大的基础设施。

And when they came in and started streaming content, it has prompted every other studio in town to start their own streaming business, to take on their own loads of debt in order to create this huge infrastructure.

在获取全球订阅用户方面，他们都没能像Netflix那样成功。

And they have not been able to do it as well as Netflix has done when it comes to acquiring subscribers all over the place.

他们还秉持着必须持续增长的理念。

They also have the ethos of they have to constantly grow.

没错。

Right.

他们不断进军新的业务领域。

And they are constantly going into new areas of business.

他们进入了游戏行业。

They went into games.

他们推出了广告套餐。

They started an advertising tier.

他们始终保持着这种增长思维。

And they are constantly in that growth mindset.

现在他们认为最佳方式就是收购这家拥有凯尔之前提到的庞大内容库的传奇老牌制片厂，并以网飞独有的方式来开发这些内容。

And now they feel that the best way to do so is to acquire this storied legacy studio that has an incredible library of content that Kyle mentioned earlier, and to exploit that content in the ways that only Netflix can.

他们拥有最优秀的优化能力。

They have the best optimization.

他们掌握最顶尖的技术。

They have the best tech.

他们能对内容进行其他流媒体平台无法实现的操作。

They can do things with content that the other streaming services can't do.

劳伦，为什么在所有这些报价中，华纳兄弟接受的是Netflix的报价，而不是派拉蒙的。

And Lauren, why is it that amid all these offers, it's Netflix offer that Warner Brothers accepts, not Paramount's.

华纳兄弟董事会进行了一个流程，他们与竞标者进行了交谈。

So Warner Brothers board ran a process, and they spoke to bidders.

他们询问了派拉蒙。

They asked Paramount.

他们要求Netflix说明愿意出价多少，以及他们希望如何融资。

They asked Netflix to tell them what they were willing to put up, how were they were hoping to finance it.

最终得出的结论是，Netflix仅针对华纳兄弟探索公司的部分业务——其流媒体和影视工作室业务——提出的报价，对股东来说比派拉蒙摆在桌面上的报价更有利。

And it came to the conclusion that Netflix's offer, which was only for part of Warner Brothers Discovery, its streaming and studio business, was better for its shareholders than the offer that Paramount put on the table.

现在派拉蒙并不认同这一点。

Now Paramount doesn't agree with that.

对。

Right.

他们非常不同意这一点。是的。

They don't agree with that so much Yeah.

他们正在进行恶意收购

That they're making a hostile bid

嗯

Mhmm.

针对华纳兄弟影业，这在我们这一代商业中并不常见

For Warner Brothers Studios, which is not all that normal in this generation of business.

我想请你快速解释一下恶意收购是如何运作的，嗯

And I want you to just quickly explain how a hostile takeover works Mhmm.

以及它是否曾被视为一个好主意

And if it's ever seen as a good idea.

当然

Sure.

恶意收购的运作方式是，收购方声称你们的董事会并不那么称职

So the way the hostile bid works is a bidder says, your board isn't all that good.

他们并没有，你知道，为你们做好工作

They aren't doing, you know, well by you.

我们将直接联系股东，以每股30美元的现金价格收购你们的股份。

We're gonna go directly to the shareholders, and we're going to give you $30 for each share in cash.

比起卖给Netflix，你们难道不更愿意接受这个报价吗？

Wouldn't you rather do that than sell to Netflix?

敌意收购通常难以成功的原因——如今这类案例也少了很多——在于公司有多种自我保护机制可用。

And the reason why hostile bids often don't work, and we hear a lot less about them these days, is because companies have a number of mechanisms that they can use to protect themselves.

话虽如此，敌意收购确实有可能成功，但过程绝不好受。

That being said, hostile bids can be successful, but they're not fun.

会有家公司在公开场合不断抨击你们董事会多么糟糕。

You have a company out there screaming how terrible your board is.

什么样的终极手段？

What kind of a nuclear option?

终极手段。

Nuclear option.

要知道，最著名的成功敌意收购案例之一，正是大卫·埃里森的父亲拉里·埃里森收购仁科软件时完成的。

And, you know, one of the most famous hostile bids that was successful was actually done by David Ellison's father, Larry Ellison, in his acquisition of PeopleSoft.

所以它们可能成功。

So they can work.

而且我要告诉你，根据我今天的谈话，我感觉派拉蒙不会在追求上表现得畏首畏尾。

And I will tell you in my conversations today, I'm not getting the sense that Paramount is gonna be timid about its pursuit.

此刻我必须说，我最喜欢的恶意收购案例——凯尔，希望你能理解——是戈登·盖柯对泰达纸业的收购。

This is the moment where I have to say that my favorite hostile takeover of all, and Kyle, I hope you appreciate this, is Gordon Gekko's takeover of Teldar paper.

没错。

Yes.

贪婪是好事。

Greed is good.

贪婪是好事，而且贪婪永无止境。

Greed is good, and greed is never ending.

它是彻底掠夺性的。

It is utterly rapacious.

这些已经庞大无比的 conglomerates 丝毫没有放缓其胃口的迹象。

And these conglomerates that are already so gigantic show no signs of slowing their appetite.

哎呀，我们团队里有制片人想确保我解释清楚了，戈登·盖柯是电影《华尔街》里的角色。

My my there are producers on our team who wanna make sure I have explained properly that Gordon Gekko is a character from Wall Street, the movie.

说真的，如果你需要这个解释，我为你感到难过。

Now, if you needed that explanation, I'm frankly sad for you.

我想讨论一下，如果这两家公司中任何一家最终收购华纳兄弟，世界会变成什么样子。

I wanna discuss what the world looks like if either of these companies end up taking over Warner Brothers.

我认为我们应该从Netflix收购华纳兄弟的版本开始讨论，因为这笔交易已经宣布并正在进行中。

And I think we should start with the version where Netflix takes over Warner Brothers because that's the deal that's already been announced and is in the works.

那么妮可，考虑到华纳兄弟拥有的这些顶级内容库，收购它究竟能为Netflix及其3亿订阅用户带来什么？

So, Nicole, what does buying Warner Brothers precisely do for Netflix and its 300,000,000 subscribers given this crown jewel library that it has.

这会如何运作？

How's it work?

嗯，如果算上HBO Max的订阅用户，这首先会为他们带来更多订阅者。

Well, it will initially give them additional subscribers when you include the subscribers from HBO Max.

他们表示目前用户重合率约75%，但这仍将扩大他们的订阅基数，尤其是在他们感觉已经相当饱和的美国市场。

They say that they have about a 75% overlap when it comes to subs, but that still will increase their subscriber base, especially in The US where they already feel like they're pretty saturated.

这也使他们能够进入两个目前尚未涉足的领域。

It also allows them to go into two different businesses that they're not currently in.

是的，他们制作电视剧，但他们没有电视工作室，也无法向其他实体销售电视剧，而华纳兄弟一直在做这些事情。

Yes, they make television shows, but they don't have a television studio and they're not able to sell television shows to other entities, which is something Warner Brothers does all the time.

你在Apple TV上看到的《足球教练》，那就是华纳兄弟的电视剧。

Ted Lasso that you see on Apple TV, that's a Warner Brothers television show.

因此他们也可以进入这个业务领域。

So they can go into that business as well.

他们还将进入国内和国际影院电影业务，这是他们一直不愿涉足的领域，这让许多渴望作品既能在影院上映又能登陆Netflix的导演们深感遗憾。

They also are going into the domestic and international theatrical movie business, which is something they have never wanted to be in, much to the chagrin of many movie directors who want desperately to both be in theaters and be on Netflix.

Netflix始终抗拒进入影院领域。

Netflix has always just resisted being in theaters.

他们一贯的理念是：我们要把产品直接快速送到消费者手中。

Their whole thing is we wanna bring our product right to the consumers right away.

而影院发行这种麻烦事——需要投入巨额资金进行电影营销以吸引观众走进影院——既低效，又无法让消费者在想要的时候获得他们想要的内容。

And this pesky business of theatrical distribution, which costs a ton of money because you have to spend a ton of money to market movies so that people will go to theaters, is inefficient, and it doesn't give consumers what they want when they want it.

明白了。

Got it.

所以这对Netflix的关键作用是强化其核心业务，即向家庭用户提供流媒体服务，这正是其存在的意义。

So the key thing that this does for Netflix is it beefs up its central business, its reason for being, which is streaming to people at home.

这一点需要非常明确。

Just to be very clear about that.

还有另一种角度来看待这个问题，或许是一种不那么善意的解读。

There's another way to look at it too, and it's perhaps a less charitable one.

Netflix正试图将一位竞争对手从棋盘上移除。

Netflix is trying to take a competitor off of the board.

这位竞争对手并非华纳兄弟。

That competitor is not Warner Brothers.

这位竞争对手是电影院。

That competitor is movie theaters.

本周业内有很多人对华纳兄弟的退出可能对已经有些脆弱的影院放映市场造成的影响感到忧心忡忡。

There is a lot of hand wringing in the business this week about what the loss of Warner Brothers might do for the already somewhat tenuous theatrical exhibition market.

好吧，详细说明一下，因为我们这些在后影院时代成长的人可能认为影院终有一天会被淘汰。

Well, just spell that out because I I think those of us who've come up in the kind of post theater world imagine the theater to be destined for the dustbin someday anyway.

所以请带我们了解这笔交易会给已经问题重重的影院行业带来怎样的时间线影响。

So just walk us through what this deal would do to the timeline of theater's already pretty big problems.

上映的电影会减少。

Fewer movies would come out.

大片会减少，小制作也会减少，各种类型的电影都会减少。

Fewer big movies, fewer small movies, movies of every stripe.

当这些电影从市场上消失时，院线排片会出现巨大空档，这让很多影院难以维持运营。

And when you're starting to take those movies off the board, you are left with really big gaps in the calendar that make it kind of unreasonable for a lot of theaters to operate.

单看华纳兄弟，从《我的世界》到《罪人》到《武器》再到《一场接一场的战斗》，没有这些大片，今年影院发行市场本已不易。

You look at Warner Brothers alone, the big hits that studio had this year from Minecraft to Sinners to Weapons to One Battle After Another, without those movies, this year in theatrical distribution would be a disaster.

现在的情况已经够艰难了。

And it's already not easy.

疫情加上演员工会和编剧工会罢工的双重打击

The pandemic, the double whammy of the actors and writers strikes

对。

Right.

而且，没错，这笔交易几乎肯定会加速向流媒体的转型，让本就不乐观的前景看起来更加令人沮丧。

And, yes, the seg to streaming that this deal will almost certainly hasten just make that not so rosy future look even more discouraging.

我认为好莱坞很多人并不一定相信Netflix会遵守协议的初始条款，尽管Netflix老板泰德·萨兰多斯现在说'当然'。

And I think that a lot of people in Hollywood don't necessarily expect Netflix to honor the initial terms of the deal where Netflix's owner Ted Sarandos is saying, sure.

'我们现阶段仍会在影院上映华纳兄弟的电影'，但后续会演变。

We're still going to put Warner Brothers movies out in theaters for now, then that will evolve.

所有人都明白这种趋势意味着什么——绝不是漫长的影院窗口期。

Everyone can see what that writing on the wall means, and it doesn't mean lengthy theatrical windows.

而是意味着这些电影最终会尽快登陆Netflix，消费者会知道自己不必去影院观看。

It means eventually, those movies are gonna get to Netflix as soon as possible, and the consumer will know they don't have to see it in theaters.

甚至可能他们根本就不该去影院。

In fact, maybe they shouldn't go to theaters at all.

妮可，这种担忧合理吗？

Nicole, is that a justified fear?

让我详细说明这种担忧是如何被表达的。

And let me just spell out how that fear has been expressed.

已有影院经营者写信表示，Netflix收购华纳兄弟对他们来说是场灾难。

There have been letters written from theater owners saying that the Netflix ownership of Warner Brothers is a disaster for them.

电影制片人和编剧们——凯尔，如果我记错了请纠正——曾写过一封据信是匿名的信，称这将对他们非常不利。

There have been movie producers and writers, Kyle, correct me if I'm wrong, who've written a note, I believe it was anonymously, saying this would be really bad for them.

整个制作最终在影院上映电影的人群，都在谈论Netflix收购华纳兄弟意味着影院时代的终结。

The whole world of people who make movies that end up playing in a theater have been talking about Netflix buying Warner Brothers as kind of end times for the theater.

我很好奇你是否认同凯尔的观点，即好莱坞认为任何相反的保证都是无意义的。

And I'm curious if you think Kyle is right that Hollywood thinks that any assurances to the contrary are meaningless.

Netflix从未真正保证过他们相信影院观影体验。

Well, Netflix has never given any assurances that they really believe in the theatrical experience to begin with.

Netflix联席CEO泰德·萨兰多斯一直对影院体验嗤之以鼻。

Ted Sarandos, the co CEO of Netflix, has constantly dismissed the theatrical experience.

他称之为营销噱头。

He's called it marketing stunt.

他说这已经过时了。

He's said it's outdated.

他不断诋毁整个行业，以至于没人真正相信他。

He's constantly kind of maligned to the whole thing to a point where no one really believes him.

尽管现在他们涉足这一业务，只是为了促成交易而不得不表态，但认为他们只是为了通过交易而忽视未来影院市场的想法并非疯狂。

And though now they're in this business because they have to say they're in this business in order to get this deal to close, it is not a crazy idea that they're only gonna do it so that they can get the deal through and will ignore the theatrical market moving forward.

我的意思是，让我们把话说清楚。

I mean, let's be clear.

影院市场以及向影院推销电影所需的流程，确实是一种低效的商业模式。

The theatrical market and what is required to sell movies into theaters is really an inefficient business.

如果有新人进来看看电影行业是怎么运作的。

If you have a newcomer come in and say like, hey, look at how this movie business works.

他们会说，这太荒谬了。

They would say, this is ridiculous.

比如，你必须花费5000万美元在美国营销一部电影，才能让人们在上映首周末走进影院。

Like, you have to spend $50,000,000 to market a movie in The US so that people will show up on opening weekend.

你要花两到三年的时间来制作一部电影。

You spend two to three years making the movie.

你要花这么多钱来营销。

You spend this much to market.

你可以在周六早上就知道自己是否彻底失败，电影已被判定为成功或失败。

You can know on Saturday morning if you're dead in the water and the movie's been deemed either a hit or a failure.

事情就是发生得这么快。

It happens that quickly.

这就像是在用荒谬的赔率赌博。

It's like gambling with ridiculous odds.

我能看到凯尔的脑袋要爆炸了。

I can see Kyle's head exploding.

我知道他是个热爱影院体验的人。

I know him to be a lover of the theatrical.

我也热爱影院观影体验。

I'm also a lover of theatrical experience.

但作为商业提案，这不是个好主意。

But as a business proposition, it's not a great idea.

不过从另一方面看，这正是引发文化讨论的方式。

On the flip side, though, that is the way to create cultural conversation.

这是让作品长久留存的方式。

It's the way to make something last for a long period of time.

你可以去问问很多人，他们最喜欢的Netflix电影是什么。

You can go out and ask lots of people what their favorite Netflix movie is.

我认为没人能给出真正的答案。

I don't think anyone has a real answer.

你可以去问问人们最喜欢的迪士尼电影是什么，或者问问他们去年在影院看过的最喜欢的电影是什么。

You can go out and ask people what their favorite Disney movie is, or you can ask them what their favorite movie was that they saw in theaters last year.

即使你没在影院看过，你也知道《芭比》在3000块银幕上映的盛况，最终你总会看到那部电影。

And even if you don't see it in theaters, you know that Barbie was on 3,000 screens and was a huge deal, and then you at some point will find that movie.

整个文化讨论确实是从电影院开始的。

That whole cultural conversation really starts in the movie theater.

尽管这完全低效，但某种程度上这就是它一直以来的运作方式。

And while it is completely inefficient, it's kind of the way it's been working all this time.

凯尔，你真的相信被网飞收购的华纳兄弟不会再在影院上映任何电影吗？

Kyle, are you really convinced that a Netflix owned Warner Brothers doesn't really put any movies in the theater?

我是说，理论上它完全可以两者兼顾，哪怕只是为了引发文化讨论、制造话题，为你每年最终都要报道的奖项季——奥斯卡、金球奖等——制造热度。

I mean, it could, in theory, very easily do both if for no other reason to create a cultural conversation, to create buzz, to create buzz for the story you end up covering every year, which is awards season Oscars, Golden Globes.

是啊。

Yeah.

已有充分证据表明，先在影院上映的电影在转向流媒体后表现更好，因为它们已经引发了文化讨论，让观影感觉像一场盛事。

I mean, it's been amply proven that movies that come out in theaters tend to do better once they make their way to streaming because there has been that cultural conversation already because it did feel like an event.

那些直接上线的流媒体电影往往悄无声息。

Movies that just appear on streaming often make no noise whatsoever.

所以你会认为继续在影院发行电影符合网飞的最佳利益。

So you would think it would be in Netflix's best interest to still put movies out in theaters.

他们为冲奥影片做了非常敷衍的院线发行，但实际上更希望观众在自家舒适环境中观看这些电影。

They do a very perfunctory theatrical release for their Oscar contenders, but they'd really rather people see those movies in the comfort of their own home.

这些举措其实只是为了满足奥斯卡规则和那些要求有某种影院放映的电影制作人。

Those are really just done to satisfy Oscar rules and filmmakers who are agitating to have some sort of theatrical component.

但我认为一旦影院模式彻底消失，如果电影院真的像渡渡鸟一样消失，Netflix 不会为它, 不会为它流一滴眼泪。

But I think once there's no more theatrical component to be had, if theaters really do go the way of the dodo, that's not going to be something that Netflix is crying about whatsoever.

对。

Right.

而且，卡尔，你其实已经向我解释过这一点。

And, Carl, you've actually explained this to me.

当你把电影送到影院时，影院会拿走很大一部分钱。

When you send a movie to the theater, the theater takes a lot of the money.

所以如果你是Netflix，放弃50%、40%或30%的收入给某些影院，当你核心业务是向我在布鲁克林的卧室发送流媒体视频时，这并不太合理。

So if you're Netflix giving up whether it's 50 or 40 or 30% of your revenue to some theater doesn't make a whole lot of sense when your central business is sending a streaming video to my bedroom in Brooklyn.

而且我认为，Netflix 确实有一些电影如果放在影院上映是可以赚钱的。

And I think, you know, Netflix has had movies that can and do make money if they're released in theaters.

K-pop Demon Hunters 就有两个周末的票房表现不错。

K pop Demon Hunters had two sort of stunty weekends where it made money.

当然，《利刃出鞘》系列电影的后两部已在Netflix上线。

Certainly, the Knives Out franchise, the last two of which have appeared on Netflix.

这些电影若能在影院获得充分的长线放映，确实可以盈利，但我不认为这对Netflix最有利。

Those movies can make money in theaters if they were given really robust long releases, but I don't think it's in Netflix's best interest to do so.

他们完全愿意放弃眼前的短期收益，以确保流媒体在未来占据绝对主导地位的长远发展。

They are perfectly willing to leave that short term money on the table if it guarantees them a long term future where streaming is dominant above all else.

好的。

Okay.

那么这些就是Netflix与华纳兄弟交易对创作群体和影院观众显而易见的负面影响。

So these are the clear downsides of the Netflix Warner Brothers deal for the creative community and the theater goer.

我想花点时间谈谈积极的一面。

I wanna talk about the upside for a minute.

如果你是Netflix订阅用户，我想知道你现在是否能获得更多实惠——特别是如果你同时订阅了HBO Max这类可能被收购的服务。

And if you're a Netflix subscriber, I wonder if you're now gonna get more for your money, specifically, if you're a Netflix subscriber who also pays for something like HBO Max, which it would acquire in this deal.

我认为可以做个快速调查。

And I think it's safe to say I'm gonna do a very quick poll.

我们中有谁同时订阅了HBO和Netflix？

Who among us subscribes to HBO and Netflix?

所有人吗？

Everybody?

是的。

Yes.

我有订阅。

I do.

对。

Yep.

所有人。

Everybody.

好的。

Okay.

理论上说，当这两项服务合并后，你的花费可能会减少。

So in theory, you might be paying less for those two when they're housed under the same roof.

对吧？

Right?

是啊。

Yeah.

这就是Netflix的论点，他们声称将为消费者提供更低的价格。

That's the argument Netflix is making that that's what they will provide consumers is a cheaper price.

不管这是否属实，你知道的，价格一直在上涨。

Whether or not that's true, you know, prices keep going up.

他们不断向消费者提高价格。

They keep raising prices on consumers.

所以，他们可能一开始价格较低，然后逐渐提高。

So, you know, they may start with it lower and then that price may rise.

这已经不是我们第一次看到这种情况了。

It wouldn't be the first time we've seen that happen.

简而言之，当它们归同一家公司所有时，两者之间的竞争将会减少。

Suffice it to say, will be less competition between the two of them when they're owned by the same place.

如果他们想涨价，价格就会上涨。

If they want the price to go up, it will go up.

如果他们想降价

If they want the price to go down

没错。

Exactly.

价格就会下降。

It will go down.

劳伦，Netflix正在就这次合并提出一个相当有趣的观点——为何将众多内容整合到一个Netflix平台中不会构成垄断。

Lauren, Netflix is making a pretty interesting argument about why this merger, which puts a lot of things in one box, which is suddenly Netflix box, is not monopolistic.

我想知道你和妮可（也欢迎随时加入讨论）能否简要概括Netflix的论点，说明为何特朗普政府无需从反垄断角度担忧此事。

And I wonder if you and Nicole, feel free to chime on this too, can briefly summarize Netflix's case for why this is not something that the Trump administration should worry about when it comes to antitrust.

单从流媒体市场份额来看，Netflix已经是巨头了。

So if you look at just share of streaming, Netflix is already a giant.

现在它又要收购另一家流媒体HBO。

And now it's acquiring an HBO, another streamer.

如果你只看这个小领域，会发现到处都是危险信号。

If you look just little pocket, red flags all over the place.

Netflix辩称这种看法是错误的。

Netflix is arguing that's the wrong way to be looking at it.

他们会说，当你考虑今晚要做什么、看什么内容时，想的不是'我要看哪个流媒体平台'。

They'd say, when you're thinking about what to do tonight, where you're gonna watch content, you're not thinking which streamer am I gonna watch.

你想的是'我要消费什么内容'。

You're thinking, what am I going to consume?

可能是通过有线电视看的节目。

That could be TV on the cable.

可能是TikTok。

That could be TikTok.

可能是YouTube。

That could be YouTube.

这些都是不同形式的娱乐。

That is all different kinds of things.

因此Netflix认为，监管机构在审视市场控制时，应该考虑这个宏观背景，而不仅仅是流媒体领域。

So it's saying that regulators, when they're looking at control of the market, should be thinking about that backdrop, not just streaming.

妮可，你觉得这个论点有说服力吗？

Nicole, does that argument feel compelling?

有。

Yes.

我的意思是，这确实是Netflix的论点。

I mean, that is Netflix's argument.

根据尼尔森的数据，在电视观看总时长方面他们排名第六。

According to Nielsen, you know, they're sixth when it comes to total TV watching.

YouTube是第一，而他们位居第六。

YouTube is number one, and they are sixth.

如果与HBO和HBO Max合并，他们将占据9%的电视观看份额。

If they combine with HBO and HBO Max, they'll be 9% of TV viewing.

按照这个指标，他们仍然落后于迪士尼及其所有服务——包括ESPN、Hulu等平台。

That still puts them in this metric beneath Disney and all of their services, which that includes ESPN and Hulu and everything like that.

基本上与NBC环球处于同等地位，后者既包括NBC这样的线性业务，也涵盖有线电视业务。

And basically at the same place as NBCUniversal, which counts both their linear operations like NBC and also their cable operations too.

这就是他们希望监管机构分析此事的方式。

So that's the way they want the regulators to analyze this.

至于是否真会这样论证还有待观察。

Whether or not that's the case that will be made remains to be seen.

当然，作为竞标对手的派拉蒙坚称这显然是垄断行为，会构成巨大威胁。

Paramount, of course, as the rival bidder is arguing that it is, of course, monopolistic and that it does present a big threat.

还需注意的是，TikTok和YouTube并不购买剧本电视剧。

It's also important to note that TikTok and YouTube don't buy scripted television.

这起并购案消息刚泄露时，我正在和一群职业演员打牌，亲眼目睹了他们脸上的绝望。

When the first word of this merger leaked, I was at a poker game with a bunch of working actors, and I just saw the despair on their faces.

他们已经被压榨得够厉害了。

They've already been squeezed so much.

你明白吗？

You know?

这些演员住在洛杉矶，经常不得不跨州甚至跨国工作。

These are actors who live in Los Angeles, who have to travel out of state and out of country often just to work.

而现在能购买他们希望参演的电视剧和电影的平台将越来越少。

And now there are going to be fewer places that are buying the TV shows and movies that they hope to work on.

好的。

Okay.

我们即将进入休息时间。

So we are about to take a break.

稍后回来时，我们将讨论替代方案——派拉蒙收购华纳兄弟是否更有利，以及这对创意社区及其担忧的影响，还有由此引发的所有反垄断问题。

And when we come back, we're gonna talk about whether the alternative deal, which is Paramount buying Warner Brothers, is any better, whether it comes to the creative community and its concerns about this deal and all the antitrust issues that it raises as well.

我们马上回来。

So we'll be right back.

我是黛博拉·卡门。

I'm Deborah Kamen.

我是《纽约时报》的一名调查记者。

I'm an investigative reporter at The New York Times.

有一次，我正在调查房地产行业的不良行为，那是个特别棘手的案子。

This one time, I was working on a particularly difficult investigation of the bad behavior in the real estate industry.

我和编辑开会时，她问我，'黛博拉，你的脸色怎么这么苍白？'

I was in a meeting with my editor, and she said, Deborah, why is your face so white?

我就如实告诉了她。

And I just told her the truth.

我说，'这个报道真的很难做。'

I said, you know, this story is really hard.

她看着我说，'这就是我们的工作。'

And she looked at me and said, that's what we do.

这句话我一直记在心里。

I think about that all the time.

在《纽约时报》，从没有人对我说过'这个目标太远大'或'这个报道太难了'这样的话。

At the New York Times, I have never encountered someone who said to me, that's too ambitious or that story is too hard.

恰恰相反。

It's the contrary.

我被告知需要更深入地挖掘。

I am told you need to dig deeper.

你必须继续前进，直到我们确保掌握每一个事实、每一个层面，去讲述那些因为困难而无人讲述的故事。

You need to keep going until we make sure we have every single fact, every single layer to tell the stories that would not be told because they are hard.

这就是《纽约时报》的特别之处。

And that's what's special about The New York Times.

它让我们的读者不仅能了解发生了什么，还能理解背后的原因。

It allows our readers to understand not just what's happening, but why it's happening.

如果你是订阅用户，你可能体验过那种理解的感受。

If you're a subscriber, you probably have experienced that sense of understanding.

感谢你对这项工作的支持。

And thank you for supporting this work.

如果你还不是订阅用户，可以在nytimes.com/subscribe订阅。

If you're not, you can subscribe at nytimes.com/subscribe.

好的。

Okay.

欢迎回到我们的好莱坞特别圆桌讨论。

Welcome back to our Hollywood edition roundtable.

妮可、劳伦和凯尔，我想让你们设想第二种可能性——派拉蒙最终战胜华纳兄弟。

Nicole, Lauren, and Kyle, I want you all to conjure the second possibility that it's Paramount that wins Warner Brothers.

假设与Netflix的交易告吹，如果派拉蒙胜出，这对我们讨论过的所有利益相关方——电影制作人、消费者和监管机构意味着什么。

Somehow the Netflix deal blows up and what it would mean if Paramount prevails for all the constituencies that we have been talking about so far, the movie makers, consumers, and regulators.

那么，凯尔，让我先从你开始。

So, Kyle, let me start with you.

派拉蒙在此次胜利中，谁是赢家谁是输家？

Who wins and who loses in a Paramount victory here?

要预测可能的情况，我已经观察了Skydance自合并以来如何对待派拉蒙。

To forecast what that might look like, I'd already look at how Skydance has treated Paramount since they made that merger.

要知道，大卫·埃里森已经表现出某种愿意迎合特朗普的意愿。

You know, David Ellison has signaled a sort of willingness to accommodate Trump.

他任命巴里·韦斯来掌管CBS新闻。

He has installed Barry Weiss to run CBS News.