伊朗最高领袖遇刺与中东一个时代的终结

你好。

Hi.

我是《纽约时报烹饪》的亚历克莎·韦贝尔。

It's Alexa Weibel from New York Times Cooking.

我们有很多简单的平日晚餐食谱，今天我要做我的素食蘑菇沙威玛皮塔饼。

We've got tons of easy weeknight recipes, and today I'm making my vegetarian mushroom shawarma pitas.

这个食谱的设计非常高效。

This recipe is just built for efficiency.

你把蘑菇和红洋葱与香料混合，然后放进烤箱。

You toss your mushrooms and red onion in your spices, throw them in the oven.

等它们烤好的时候，你已经切好了卷心菜，就可以开始组装了。

By the time they're done, you chop your cabbage, you're ready to assemble.

真难以置信，这只需要二十分钟的主动操作时间。

It feels crazy that this takes just twenty minutes of active time.

味道太棒了。

It's just delicious.

《纽约时报烹饪》为您准备了适合忙碌工作日晚餐的简单菜肴。

New York Times cooking has you covered with easy dishes for busy weeknights.

您可以在 nytcooking.com 上找到更多内容。

You can find more at nytcooking.com.

来自《纽约时报》，我是蕾切尔·阿布拉姆斯，这是《每日新闻》的特别节目。

From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is a special episode of The Daily.

我们正在跟进昨晚发生的突发新闻。

We have breaking news that we're following from overnight.

美国和以色列对伊朗发动了大规模袭击。

The US and Israel have launched a wide scale assault on Iran.

本小时突发新闻。

Breaking news this hour.

据报，德黑兰的建筑物冒出浓烟，人们惊慌逃窜。

Smoke can be seen coming from buildings in Tehran, and people have reportedly been running away in panic there.

本周末，美国和以色列对伊朗发动了大规模袭击。

This weekend, The United States and Israel have launched a massive attack against Iran

爆炸声可能

explosions could be

杀死了最高领袖，并根据伊朗国家媒体的消息，还有该国领导层的数人。

killing the supreme leader and, according to Iranian state media, several people in the country's leadership structure.

这真是非常重大的新闻。

This is this is very big news.

这些袭击现在被正式称为斩首行动。

These strikes are now officially decapitation strikes.

这次袭击是美国数十年来对伊朗采取的最激烈的军事行动，旨在推翻一个历任总统都视为美国敌人的政权。

The strikes were the most aggressive military action that The US has taken against Iran in generations, aimed at toppling a regime that president after president has deemed an enemy of The United States.

一枚导弹碎片坠落在卡塔尔首都多哈并爆炸。

A missile fragment falling to the ground and exploding in Doha, the capital of Qatar.

但这次袭击已经引发了整个地区的报复，以及对可能重塑中东的更大冲突的担忧。

But the attack has already prompted retaliation across the region, as well as fears about a wider conflict that could reshape the Middle East.

你现在能听到警报声响起，这表明大量导弹正在朝以色列袭来。

You can hear the sirens are going off right now, and this is indicating essentially that there is a barrage of missiles coming towards Israel.

美国驻该地区各使馆现在要求美国公民就地避难。

US Embassies across the region are now telling Americans to shelter in place at Justin.

国务院现在敦促所有在黎巴嫩的美国公民趁商业撤离渠道尚存时尽快离开。

The state department is now urging all US citizens in Lebanon to get out while commercial options are still available.

今天，我的同事马克·马泽蒂和戴维·桑格将为我们解析伊朗的下一步动向，以及这些空袭可能引发的后果。

Today, my colleagues Mark Mazzetti and David Sanger explain what's next for Iran and what these strikes threaten to unleash.

今天是3月1日，星期日。

It's Sunday, March 1.

戴维，马克，欢迎来到节目。

David, Mark, welcome to the show.

谢谢。

Thank you.

很高兴回来，蕾切尔。

Good to be back, Rachel.

在我这一生中，曾多次出现关于美国与伊朗全面开战的虚假警报，当时似乎我们已濒临开战，但显然并没有

So in my lifetime, there have been many false alarms about a full fledged US war with Iran, where it seemed like we were close, but obviously, it did

没有

not

发生。

happen.

但这一刻感觉非常不同，我认为这在很大程度上是因为美国已经杀死了伊朗最高领袖以及政权中的多名高级官员。

This moment feels very different, though, and I think that that's in large part because The United States has killed Iran's supreme leader as well as a number of top officials in the regime.

仅就这一行动的规模而言，再加上我们在过去不到24小时内看到的地区报复行动，其规模远远超过了自1979年伊朗革命以来美国对伊朗进行的任何军事行动。

And just the scale of that alone, as well as the scale of the retaliation we've seen in the region just in the last, basically, less than twenty four hours, it far surpasses any kind of military operation we have seen in Iran since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

因此，我认为现在很多人心里都在问一个基本问题：我们是否已经与伊朗处于战争状态？

So I think that a basic question on a lot of people's minds right now is, are we at war with Iran?

大卫，我们先从你开始。

And, David, let's start with you.

这确实感觉像是这样，蕾切尔。

It certainly feels like that, Rachel.

毕竟，美国首次袭击了德黑兰的核心——领导层复合体，而伊朗则通过向美国的多个盟友和美军基地发射导弹进行了回应。

After all, The United States, for the first time, hit at the core of Tehran, the leadership compounds, and the Iranians have responded by missile attacks on many of The US allies and on US bases.

如果这还不算战争，哪怕只持续几天，那我真不知道什么才算。

If that doesn't define a war, even one that may only last a few days, I don't know what does.

没错，大卫。

That's right, David.

这是美国和以色列对伊朗发动的全面战争。

This is a full blown war by The United States and Israel against Iran.

去年夏天，当以色列开始冲突时，他们有明确的红线不愿逾越。

Last summer, when the Israelis began a conflict, there were clear lines that they didn't want to cross.

他们不想杀死最高领袖或推翻政权。

They didn't want to kill the supreme leader or topple the regime.

而这场冲突的野心非同寻常。

And the ambitions in this conflict are extraordinary.

特朗普总统表示，他试图彻底铲除该国的领导层，让伊朗自己决定接下来该怎么办。

President Trump said he is trying to basically knock off the leadership of the country and let the country of Iran figure out what goes on from there.

这以前从未发生过。

This has never happened before.

好的。

Okay.

显然，我们正处在一个前所未有的时刻。

So clearly, we are at an unprecedented moment.

谈谈我们是如何走到这一步的。

Talk about how we ended up here.

这一阶段始于去年一月的抗议活动，你还记得当时有数十万，甚至数百万人走上街头，对吧。

Well, this phase of it started with the protests last January, and you remember that there were hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Iranians who were on the streets Right.

还有数千人，甚至数万人被杀。

And thousands, if not tens of thousands, who were killed.

当时，总统宣布他将支持抗议者，这引发了我们之前讨论过的、围绕伊朗的大规模军事集结——航空母舰、数百架轰炸机、战斗机、空中加油机。

And at that time, the president declared that he was gonna come aid the protesters, And that began the huge military buildup all around Iran that we've discussed before to aircraft carriers, hundreds of bombers, fighter jets, refuelers.

大规模的军事集结。

Just a huge buildup.

不仅如此，这里还有另一个重要因素，那就是去年夏天与伊朗的冲突之后。

And not only that, there's another important element here, and that's after last summer's conflict with Iran.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡开始主张需要再次发动空袭，认为去年夏天的战争并未完成任务。

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, starts making the case that there needs to be another round of strikes, that last summer's war didn't finish the job.

因此，去年12月，他前往海湖庄园会见特朗普总统。

So last December, he goes to Mar A Lago to meet with president Trump.

在这次会晤中，我们认为内塔尼亚胡实际上请求特朗普批准以色列在2026年某个时候发动打击，特别是针对弹道导弹设施，因为这对以色列来说是当务之急。

And during that meeting, we believe that Netanyahu basically asks Trump's permission for Israel to strike sometime in 2026, particularly ballistic missile sites because this is of urgent concern to Israel.

正如我们所见，伊朗的导弹项目完全有能力打击以色列。

Iran's missile program, as we've seen, is quite capable of hitting Israel.

因此，就在特朗普谈论抗议者的同时，内塔尼亚胡也在为美以联合冲突提出自己的主张，其目标远比去年的行动更为宏大。

And so even as Trump is talking about the protesters, Netanyahu is also making his own case for a joint US Israeli conflict to be far more ambitious than what happened last year.

但即使在军事集结开始之际，

But even as the buildup began,

总统决定

the

与伊朗展开一场外交对话，这场对话几乎完全聚焦于核计划的未来。

president decided to, go ahead with a diplomatic conversation with Iran, one that was limited almost entirely to the future of the nuclear program.

我们还无法确定这是否是一次认真的努力，还是仅仅做做样子，但三位在周六向我们简报此努力的政府官员表示，在日内瓦举行的两到三次会议上，他们一直在敦促伊朗人是否愿意放弃全部铀浓缩能力，即生产核燃料的能力。

We can't tell yet whether that was a serious effort or just for show, but three administration officials who briefed us on this effort on Saturday made the case that in two or three separate meetings in Geneva, they were pressing the Iranians on whether they would be willing to give up all of their enrichment capability, the ability to produce nuclear fuel.

是的。

Mhmm.

有一次，美国官员告诉我们，他们甚至提出永久免费向伊朗提供铀，以便美国能够控制其浓缩方式，确保其不会被用于制造武器。

At one point, US officials told us they even offered to supply uranium for free to the Iranians for forever so that The US stayed in control of how it was enriched and to make sure that it couldn't be used for a weapon.

他们坚称，伊朗拒绝了这一提议。

And they maintain that the Iranians turned that down.

当他们将这一情况汇报给特朗普总统时，这成了转折点。

And that when they reported that back to president Trump, that was sort of the breaking point.

当然，问题是，所有这些外交谈判正在进行时，如果它们失败了，我们正在中东地区、围绕伊朗大规模部署军事力量。

And the question, of course, is all of these diplomatic talks are happening is if they fail, we're building up this huge military presence in The Middle East around Iran.

美国愿意发动什么样的攻击？

What kind of attack will The United States be willing to do?

会是有限度的吗？

Would it be limited?

会是大规模的吗？

Would it be large?

从美国的角度来看，任何此类攻击的目标是什么？

And what would the goal of any such attack be from The United States' perspective?

在过去几周里，随着中东地区军事力量的集结——这是自2003年伊拉克战争以来最大的一次军事集结——这是最大的疑问。

That was the biggest question over the last several weeks as this military buildup in The Middle East was happening, the largest military buildup since the Iraq War of two thousand three.

军方正在为一场大规模冲突做准备，但总统会如何决定？为什么？为什么是现在？

The military is planning for a very large scale conflict, but what would the president decide and why and why now?

特朗普政府如何为这场冲突辩护？

And how is the Trump administration justifying this conflict?

对。

Right.

战争的理由是什么？

What is the reason for war?

威胁的证据是什么？

What is the evidence of the threat?

本周你看到的是，特朗普总统和他的几位高级顾问在多个方面为战争辩护，但这些论点在仔细审查下站不住脚。

And what you saw this week was president Trump and some of his senior advisers making a case for war on many different fronts, and that case didn't hold up very well under scrutiny.

因此，你在周二晚上的国情咨文演讲中听到总统说，伊朗拥有很快就能打击美国的弹道导弹。

So you heard the president in the State of the Union address on Tuesday night saying that Iran has ballistic missiles that will soon be capable of hitting The United States.

这并不属实。

That is not true.

伊朗确实拥有弹道导弹项目。

The Iranians have a ballistic missile program.

他们一直对能够打击美国的远程导弹感兴趣。

They have been interested in long range missiles that could hit The United States.

但美国国防情报局去年得出结论，伊朗可能需要十年时间才能拥有远程弹道导弹 arsenal，而且他们甚至尚未明确承诺发展这项技术。

But the Defense Intelligence Agency last year concluded that it could be a decade before they have an arsenal of long range ballistic missiles, and they haven't even necessarily committed to the technology.

此外，你听到多位顾问谈论伊朗重启其核计划。

Separately, you heard various advisers talking about Iran restarting its nuclear program.

史蒂夫·维特科夫甚至说，伊朗距离拥有核武器可能只有一周之遥。

Steve Witkoff even said, well, it could be a week away from a nuclear weapon.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

我们报道的是，情况也不是这样。

And what we reported is that that is also not the case.

去年六月的空袭对伊朗的核计划造成了足够大的破坏，使得伊朗要真正重启该计划需要更长的时间，绝不可能像维特科夫所说的那样在一周内完成。

The strikes last June did enough damage to Iran's nuclear program that it would take far longer for Iran to really be able to restart it in a way that would constitute a real threat and certainly wouldn't be able to do it within a week, as Witkoff said.

因此，他们直到袭击前夜还在不断试验这些不同的战争借口。

So they were kind of road testing these different justifications for war right up to the eve of the attack.

对。

Right.

显然，所宣称的理由都值得怀疑，但袭击还是发生了。

Obviously, the stated rationales have been dubious, but the attack, of course, happened anyway.

所以，马克，给我们讲讲这次袭击是如何展开的。

So, Mark, take us through the attack and how it unfolded.

就在东部时间凌晨一点刚过，美国和以色列军队对伊朗的核设施、导弹设施、政府大楼以及高级领导人发动了协同攻击。

So just after one in the morning eastern time, The United States and Israeli militaries launched a coordinated assault on Iran against the nuclear sites, missile sites, government buildings, senior leaders.

这里有一种分工合作。

There was a sort of division of labor here.

以色列的目标是伊朗的高层领导人。

Israel was going after the senior leaders of Iran.

比如最高领袖、伊斯兰革命卫队高级指挥官以及政治领导层的高层人物。

So it would be the supreme leader, senior IRGC commanders, upper echelon of the political leadership.

美国则更专注于军事目标、弹道导弹目标以及全国范围内的核设施。

The United States was more focused on military targets, ballistic missile targets, nuclear sites around the country.

马克，你能告诉我们，我们具体知道哪些目标被击中了吗？

And can you tell us, Mark, what do we know about what exactly was hit?

我们现在是周六下午晚些时候录音，需要谨慎区分哪些信息可以确认，哪些不能确认。

We're recording late afternoon on Saturday, and we wanna be careful about what we can confirm and what we can't.

现在

Now

伊朗媒体报告称，全国范围内都发生了袭击。

nationwide strikes have been reported by Iranian media.

可以看到德黑兰首都上空升起浓烟。

Smoke can be seen rising from capital in Tehran.

初始打击目标还包括国防部、议会、国家最高委员会、外交部。

Other targets in the initial wave, the defense ministry, the parliament, the national supreme council, the ministry

我们确切知道，伊朗的政府设施和多个其他军事设施已遭到破坏。

We certainly know there has been damage to government facilities and various other military facilities in Iran.

在伊朗最高领袖办公室附近看到了烟柱。

Plumes of smoke were seen near the offices of Iran's supreme leader.

有卫星图像显示，最高领袖的官邸似乎已被夷为平地。

There is satellite footage of the supreme leader's compound, which appears to be flattened.

从打击目标来看，毫无疑问，其目的是改变伊朗的领导层。

And there's no question from the targets that the goal was to change the leadership in Iran.

据伊朗官员称，一枚以色列导弹击中了一所女童小学，造成51名儿童死亡、另有60人受伤，目前已有伤亡报告。

Casualty is now being reported after Iranian officials say an Israeli missile struck a girl's elementary school, killing 51 children and injuring another 60 people.

还有报道称，伊朗一所学校遭到袭击，造成数十名平民伤亡。

There are also reports of a school being hit in Iran with dozens of civilian casualties.

在未来几天，我们将了解到更多关于这次首轮打击及其造成的破坏的详细情况，我们也确实在期待未来几天内会有进一步的打击行动。

We will know more, much more in the coming days about this first wave of strikes and the damage that was done, and we are certainly also anticipating further waves of strikes in the coming days.

大卫，谈谈伊朗迄今为止的回应。

David, talk about the response from Iran so far.

伊朗显然已经准备好进行报复，就在我们开始听到导弹和无人机袭击报告的几个小时前。

Well, the Iranians were clearly ready to retaliate, and it was only a few hours before we began hearing reports of missile attacks and drone attacks.

针对巴林的美国基地。

At The US base in Bahrain

我们已经提前行动了。

We've been ahead.

我们已经提前行动了。

We've been ahead.

目标是迪拜。

Aimed at Dubai.

我们看到了头顶上爆炸的轨迹。

We saw the streaks of an explosion above us.

目标主要是该地区的阿拉伯盟国。

Aimed at US allies, mostly Arab states in the region.

瓦兹，看看其他的。

Waz, look at other.

看看其他的。

Look at other.

看看其他的。

Look at other.

当然，正如我们所预料的那样，以色列本身也遭到了袭击。

And then, of course, there were attacks on Israel itself, just as we had expected.

是的。

Yeah.

耶路撒冷的空中阻断措施刚刚又开始了。

The, the air retardants have just started again in Jerusalem.

我们一直收到一系列

We've been getting a series of

但我还觉得有趣的是，回应并没有显得压倒性。

But I also thought it was interesting that the response was not an overwhelming one.

这让我觉得，伊朗人可能认为自己正被引诱，过早地倾尽所有导弹和无人机，从而在美以发动第二波或第三波袭击时陷入无防备状态。

And that suggested to me that it's possible the Iranians think that they were being baited into dumping all of their missiles and drones early on, leaving them defenseless if there are second or third wave strikes by The US and Israel.

所以他们立即做出了回应，但显然保留了相当多的储备力量。

So they responded right away, but they certainly kept a fair bit in reserve.

因此，至少目前来看，回应中并未出现大量伤亡。

So at least for now, we're not seeing a serious number of casualties in the response.

所以，基本上，所有这些都在一夜之间发生，至少对我们所在的东海岸时间而言是这样。

So, basically, all of this is happening overnight, at least East Coast time where we are.

而特朗普在周六早上发布了一段视频，许多美国人在醒来后看到，视频解释说这就是我们一直期待的美军行动。

And Trump releases a video that a lot of folks in The US wake up to on Saturday morning that explains that this is The US military action that we have all been waiting for.

不久前，美国军方在伊朗开始了大规模作战行动。

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

在这段视频中，他解释了自己下令的原因以及目标是什么。

And in this video, he talks about why he ordered it and what the goal is.

我们的目标是通过消除伊朗政权迫在眉睫的威胁来保护美国人民。

Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.

大卫，告诉我们你从这段视频中注意到了什么。

David, tell us what stood out to you from this video.

嗯，有两件事引起了我的注意，蕾切尔。

Well, there are two things that jumped out at me, Rachel.

视频的前半部分讲述了美国对伊朗的诸多不满。

The first part of the video was about the long list of grievances that The US had against Iran.

是的。

Mhmm.

他回溯到了四十七年前。

And he went back forty seven years.

该政权最初的行动之一就是支持对

Among the regime's very first acts was to back a violent takeover of

德黑兰美国大使馆的暴力占领。

the US embassy in Tehran.

从伊朗在大使馆扣押444天的美国人质，到贝鲁特美军兵营的爆炸事件，再到指控伊朗知晓甚至参与了上世纪九十年代对‘科尔号’驱逐舰的袭击。

To the taking of the American hostages in the embassy for four hundred and forty four days, to the bombing of, an American barracks in Beirut, and on to accusing Iran of knowing about, if not participating in, the attack on the USS Cole in the late nineteen nineties.

最后，我对伟大的伊朗人民说：今晚，你们自由的时刻已经到来。

Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.

但接着他转向了另一个方向。

But then he turned in a different direction.

当我们完成时，就接管你们的政府。

When we are finished, take over your government.

这将是属于你们去夺取的。

It will be yours to take.

这可能是你们几代人中唯一的机会。

This will be probably your only chance for generations.

而且，他首次明确敦促伊朗人民把握这次机会

And for the first time, he basically urged the Iranian people to use this opportunity

起来反抗他们的政府。

to rise up against their government.

现在是时候掌控你们的命运，释放那近在咫尺的繁荣与辉煌的未来了。

Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.

这是采取行动的时刻。

This is the moment for action.

不要让它溜走。

Do not let it pass.

这相当了不起，因为我们一直想知道，从袭击领导层据点到真正推翻政权，究竟有什么计划。

And that was pretty remarkable because we have been wondering what was the plan to get from attacking the leadership compounds to actually changing the regime.

对。

Right.

他在这段视频中基本上是说，我们要除掉政权的首脑，现在伊朗人民应该起来，彻底完成推翻政府的任务。

He's basically saying in this video, we are going to take out the heads of the regime, and now the people of Iran should rise up and basically finish the job of ousting their government.

说得完全正确。

That's exactly right.

我们以前真的从未见过这样的情况。

And we've really never seen anything like that before.

愿上帝保佑美利坚合众国。

May god bless The United States Of America.

愿上帝保佑你们所有人。

May god bless you all.

谢谢。

Thank you.

然后当天晚些时候，我们开始听到消息说最高领袖哈梅内伊已经去世。

And then later in the day, we start hearing reports that supreme leader Khamenei is dead.

这些消息首先来自以色列，随后在下午晚些时候，特朗普总统在社交媒体上发布帖子，宣布他已被杀死。

The reports first come out of Israel, and then late afternoon, president Trump puts out a post on social media announcing that he has been killed.

这太重大了。

It's enormous.

伊朗最高领袖是这个存在了四十七年的神权政府的核心象征。

The supreme leader of Iran is the identity of a theocratic government that has existed for forty seven years.

他不仅是精神领袖，还为伊朗政府的各级机构提供全部指导。

He is this not only the spiritual head, but he provides all direction for the lower levels of Iran's government.

不仅如此，他还是全球最残暴的独裁者之一，不仅在该地区，而且在整个世界都臭名昭著，长期以来一直在中东地区煽动混乱与暴力，正如总统所说，还袭击了美国军队。

And not only that, he is one of the most brutal autocrats, not only in the region, but in the world, and has a long history of fomenting chaos and violence around the Middle East and, as the president said, attacking American troops.

所以这是一个历史性时刻。

So this is a historic moment.

而且，从政治和战术角度来看，这对特朗普总统来说也同样意义重大。

And, you know, politically and tactically for president Trump, this is also huge.

就在两个月前，甚至不到两个月前，他还派遣三角洲部队前往加拉加斯，把尼古拉斯·马杜罗从床上拖走，押送到纽约的监狱。

It was only two months ago, not even two months ago, that he sent a Delta Force in to pull Nicolas Maduro from his bed in Caracas and send him off to a prison in New York.

而现在，他竟然杀死了伊朗的最高领袖。

And now he ends up killing the supreme leader of Iran.

我们还不知道接下来会怎样，但这无疑是几十年来美国在中东遭遇中最重大的转折点之一。

We don't know where this is going to go, but it is certainly one of the most significant turning points in the American encounters in The Middle East in decades.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

嗨。

Hi.

我是《纽约时报》健康版块的编辑洛里·莱博维奇。

This is Lori Leibovich, editor of Well at the New York Times.

在健康与养生领域，存在大量错误信息。

There's a lot of misinformation in the health and wellness space.

但在《纽约时报》，无论话题是什么，我们都对所有内容应用相同的新闻标准，无论是肠道微生物组，还是如何获得良好的睡眠。

But at the New York Times, no matter what the topic, we apply the same journalistic standards to everything we write about, whether it's the gut microbiome or how to get a good night's sleep.

即使我们讨论的是像‘空腹喝咖啡对身体有害吗？’这样的问题。

Even if we're talking about something like, is it bad for me to drink coffee on an empty stomach?

我们的读者在阅读健康版块文章时，所获得的每一条信息都经过了核实。

Everything that our readers get when they dig into a Well article has been vetted.

我们的记者会咨询专家，联系数十人，进行深入研究。

Our reporters are consulting experts, calling dozens of people, doing the research.

这个过程可能持续数月，以便您能为自己的身心健康做出明智的决定。

It can go on for months so that you can make great decisions about your physical health and your mental health.

我们格外认真地对待报道，因为我们知道《纽约时报》的订阅用户依赖着我们。

We take our reporting extra seriously because we know New York Times subscribers are counting on us.

如果您已经订阅，谢谢您。

If you already subscribed, thank you.

如果您想订阅，请前往 nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you'd like to subscribe, go to nytimes.com/subscribe.

因此，特朗普总统明确表示，他希望推翻该政权，并希望伊朗人民抓住这一时机。

So president Trump is explicitly saying that he wants the regime gone and that the people of Iran should capitalize on this moment.

他们应该起来推翻政府。

They should rise up and overthrow the government.

大卫，你觉得这有多大概率会发生？对于一个一再证明自己极其坚韧的政权，这种策略真的可行吗？

David, how likely do we think that actually is, and is that a strategy that could even work for a regime that has proven itself over and over again to be extremely resilient?

好吧，瑞秋，事实是我们并不知道，因为自上世纪七十年代沙阿被推翻以来，伊朗从未发生过政权更迭。

Well, the truth, Rachel, is we don't know because there has not been a regime change in Iran since the shah was thrown out in the late nineteen seventies.

而世界已经大不相同了。

And the world's a very different place.

伊朗人口非常年轻，但同时也存在一个庞大且武装精良的军事体系，它们深深投入于维持现状，并且也投资于核计划。

The population's very young, But there's also this huge, well armed military establishment that is wildly invested in the status quo and that is invested in the nuclear program as well.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

所以我们得寻找一些迹象。

So we're gonna have to look for indicators.

现在有很多令人振奋的理由。

There's lots of reason for enthusiasm right now.

德黑兰及其他地方的人们正在庆祝哈梅内伊已死的报道。

There are people on the streets in Tehran and elsewhere celebrating the reports that Khamenei is is dead.

但我们也在美军解放伊拉克后看到人们在街头庆祝，你知道后来发生了什么。

But we also saw people celebrating in the streets in Iraq right after the liberation of Iraq by US forces, and you know what happened there.

因此，重要的是不要过度解读未来24到48小时内你将看到的景象，因为这个国家正在适应即将发生的某种权力过渡。

So it's important not to overread what you're going to be seeing in the next twenty four or forty eight hours as the country comes to terms with the fact that there is a transition of some kind in the offing.

对。

Right.

大卫，几天前我们聊天时，你告诉我们，如果阿亚图拉去世，伊朗已有继任计划。

And, David, when you and I spoke a few days ago, you told us that there was a succession plan in place in the event of the Ayatollah's death.

当然，他当时也已经八十多岁了。

And, of course, he was also in his eighties.

所以我认为一个自然的问题是，这个政权能否在他去世后依然生存下去。

So I think that a natural question is whether the regime can and may survive despite his death.

蕾切尔，我认为它完全有可能做到。

Rachel, I think there's every possibility that it could.

当时我们听到的传言是，阿亚图拉已经规划了四层接班人梯队

The rumors we were hearing at that time was that the Ayatollah had planned down four levels

对。

Right.

取决于谁被杀。

Depending on who was killed.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们即将发现这个政权有多脆弱，以及它是否具备从这场明显巨大的打击中恢复过来的韧性，而这场打击他们本应更好地做好准备。

So we're about to discover how brittle this regime is and whether it's got the resilience to bounce back from what was clearly a huge blow and one they probably should have prepared for better.

但听起来你的意思是，这个政权不会轻易垮台。

But it sounds like what you're saying is that the regime is not gonna fall easily.

对吧？

Right?

那么，我们是否认为它有能力反击？

So do we think that it has the capacity to fight back?

比如，《纽约时报》的报道，以及我们在节目中讨论过的，都表明伊朗政权目前极其脆弱。

Like, the reporting that the Times has been doing, and and what we've talked about on the show, is that the Iranian regime is extremely weak in this moment.

它的军队也非常虚弱。

Its military is extremely weak.

所以，马克，伊朗现在实际具备哪些作战能力？

So, Mark, what are Iran's actual capabilities to fight this war right now?

首先，最关键的问题是它能否在内部生存下来？

So first and foremost, it's a question of can it survive internally?

请记住，这个安全部门最近几周还能残酷地镇压内部抗议活动。

Recall that this is a security service that has been able to brutally put down internal protests just in recent weeks.

因此，他们在维持国内秩序方面非常有能力。

So they are quite capable of keeping order in the country.

当然，还有来自美国和以色列的外部压力，这些攻击 presumably 会持续数日。

Of course, there's this external pressure, right, from The US and from Israel that presumably will continue these attacks for days.

那么问题就来了，这个政权能否挺过这种外部压力？

And that's then the question of, can the regime survive this external pressure?

我们对他们的能力了解多少？

What do we know about their capabilities?

我们知道，该政权拥有大约2000枚弹道导弹，而在周六应对袭击时只使用了其中一小部分库存。

We know that the regime has 2,000 or so ballistic missiles, and they only used a small part of the arsenal responding to the attacks on Saturday.

他们在等待吗？

Are they waiting?

他们是在试图分批使用这些导弹吗？

Are they trying to parse them out over time?

还是说他们在首轮袭击中遭受重创，以至于难以反击？

Or were their capabilities hit so hard in the first wave of attacks that they're having trouble responding?

所以，这是另一个只有在未来几天才能得到答案的问题。

So that's another question that will only be answered in the days to come.

不过，我们假设美国和以色列会抵御这2000枚导弹。

Let's assume, though, that The United States and Israel will defend themselves against those 2,000 missiles.

我想很多听这段对话的人可能会在心里想，这听起来真的很像另一场旷日持久、没完没了的中东战争。

I think a lot of people might be listening to this and thinking to themselves, this really sounds like another protracted endless war in The Middle East.

你知道，特朗普总统在谈到这个问题时，并没有讨论一场旷日持久的行动。

You know, president Trump, in talking about this, is not discussing a very protracted operation.

他在周六有记者问他时说，他认为自己可能在几天后就暂停行动，特别是现在哈梅内伊已经去世了。

He said on Saturday when some reporters put the question to him that he thinks he might just pause after a couple of days, particularly now that Khamenei is dead.

但对于特朗普总统来说，关键在于美国不会派遣地面部队，因此他告诉他的MAGA支持者，这不会是一场永无止境的战争，至少不会是美国承受伤亡的战争。

But, you know, the key to this for president Trump is that The US is not sending in ground troops, and therefore, he tells his MAGA base this isn't gonna be a forever war or at least not one in which The US is taking casualties.

但当然，如果没有地面部队，你就很难控制事态发展。

But, of course, without boots on the ground, you don't have very much control over what happens.

纵观现代历史，我想不出任何例子，能仅凭空中力量实现政权更迭，更不用说控制局势了。

You know, in modern history, I can't think of an example in which we've brought about regime change and certainly one in which we've managed to control it with simply air power.

我想补充一点，正如伊拉克的经验所显示的那样，即使有地面部队，也不一定就能完全掌控局势。

And I would add that as the experience in Iraq showed, even if you have the boots on the ground, you don't necessarily have all the control about what happens either.

如果政权更迭无法发生，或者没有美军地面部队就难以实现，那么你认为在什么情况下，我们才会真正派遣部队进驻，以实现政权更迭的目标呢？

If regime change is not happening or not happening easily without US boots on the ground, do you think that there's any circumstance under which we would actually put troops on the ground if the goal is regime change?

比如，我们是否认为美国正在考虑组建类似9·11之后那样的盟军联军？

Like, do we think, for instance, that The US is considering putting together some kind of coalition of allied troops like we did after nine eleven?

很难想象特朗普政府会授权美军在伊朗长期大规模驻扎，且前景不明。

It is very, very hard to envision the Trump administration authorizing large scale American military presence in Iran with an indefinite future.

这与特朗普所宣称的信念相悖——他认为应迅速动用美国军事力量传递信息，然后迅速撤离。

It is against what Trump has said he believes in, which is quick use of American military power that sends a message, and then you move on.

因此，委内瑞拉行动堪称特朗普军事行动的理想典范。

And that was why the Venezuela operation was the sort of platonic ideal of a Trump military operation.

任何涉及漫长、昂贵、混乱、需要地面部队且结果不确定的政权更迭行动，都不是特朗普真正关心的。

And anything involving long, costly, messy, regime change, boots on the ground operations with indefinite outcomes is not really what president Trump's all about.

但如果政权没有垮台，而且看起来没有地面部队就无法垮台，而特朗普又不愿派兵，那么你的意思是，特朗普就会干脆停止行动并撤出？

But if the regime doesn't fall, and if it seems like it wouldn't fall without troops on the ground and Trump is not willing to do that, then you're saying what, that Trump just stops and pulls out?

你知道吗，拉切尔，你问题的核心在于一个巨大的未知数：伊朗能否从委内瑞拉身上学到什么？

You know, at the core of your question, Rachel, is one of the great unknowns, which is can Iran learn anything from Venezuela?

委内瑞拉的例子真的适用于一个拥有九千二百万人口的国家吗？

And is the Venezuela example one that would even apply in a country of 92,000,000 people?

你知道，在委内瑞拉，他们除掉了领导人，但保留了整个体制。

You know, in Venezuela, they took out the leader but left the structure.

在伊朗，我很难想象如何能这么做，因为伊斯兰革命卫队——这支镇压街头抗议的围困民兵——才是伊朗权力结构的核心。

In Iran, it's really hard for me to understand how you would get away with doing that because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the besieged militia that puts down the protests in the streets, they are the core of the Iranian power structure.

现在几乎无法想象，如果他们依然掌权，我们还能怎样相处，嗯。

And it's almost impossible to imagine right now living with them still in power Mhmm.

而只是把最顶层的人换掉。

And just removing the very top.

好的。

Okay.

但那恰恰就是我想问的。

But that's kind of my question, though.

比如说，通过美国、以色列的攻击行动，再加上伊朗国内可能出现的起义，假设政权垮台了。

Like, let's say that through some kind of combination of a campaign of attacks by The US, Israel, plus whatever kind of uprising we might see from Iranians, let's say the regime falls.

那接下来会发生什么？

What do we think would happen next?

我猜你并不认为会和平地过渡到民主政体。

I assume that you do not think that there would be some kind of peaceful transfer of power to a democratic form of government.

嗯，这有可能，但还有太多其他可能性，你不能认为这种情况真的可能发生。

Well, that's possible, but there are so many other possibilities that you can't live in the thought that it's even likely.

我们面对的是一个掌控着武装力量的政权。

We've got a regime here that is in control of the guns.

我们有流亡海外、想要回国掌权的人。

We've got exiles who want to come back and take power.

还有街头民众，他们憧憬一个不同的伊朗，但对这个‘不同’的定义可能各不相同。

You have the people on the street who envision a different Iran but may not envision the same kind of Iran.

这一切都构成了内战爆发的可能性。

That's all the formula for the possibility of civil war.

这听起来也像是美国干预后导致权力真空和混乱的配方。

That also sounds like the recipe for the kind of power vacuum that leads to chaos after US intervention.

对吧？

Right?

我们以前见过这种情况。

And we've seen this before.

我们在伊拉克见过这种情况。

We have seen this in Iraq.

我们在阿富汗也见过这种情况。

We've seen this in Afghanistan.

显然，这是许多美国人不希望看到的。

And, obviously, this is something that a lot of Americans do not want.

是的。

Yeah.

听上去，特朗普总统想对接下来发生的一切撒手不管。

And from the sound of it, president Trump wants to wash his hands of whatever comes next.

对吧？

Right?

他在周六早上说，美国已经除掉了你们的糟糕领导人。

He said on Saturday morning, The United States has gotten rid of your bad leaders.

现在轮到你们自己决定国家的未来了。

It's now up to you to do what you want with your country.

他说，你们拥有了机会，这可能是几代人以来第一次，也可能是唯一一次。

You have the opportunities, he said, for the first time and maybe the only time in generations.

对吧？

Right?

但这到底意味着什么？

But what exactly does that mean?

所以，正如你所说，这可能是引发长期暴力内战的温床，嗯。

And so it's what, as you said, could be the recipe for a protracted, violent civil war Mhmm.

这过程中很可能没有任何外部力量指导最终结果会如何。

That doesn't necessarily have any outside guidance on what the outcome would be.

这就是这件事如此危险的原因。

And that's what's so dangerous about this.

这种不稳定显然不仅会影响伊朗，不仅会影响整个地区，我肯定很多人也在担心或疑惑，它是否会影响美国本土的美国人。

That kind of instability obviously could affect not just Iran, not just the entire region, but I'm sure a lot of people are wondering or worried that it could affect Americans here in the Continental United States.

在这个时刻，美国本土或我们在西方的盟友面临哪些风险？

What are the risks to The US, like the homeland or our allies in the West in this moment?

嗯，可能的风险有很多。

Well, they could be many.

即使伊朗不再有能力向美国基地或以色列发射导弹，而我们知道他们无法向美国本土发射导弹，伊朗仍有可能以非对称方式回应，比如在欧洲或美国发动恐怖袭击。

So even if Iran is no longer capable of firing missiles at American bases or at Israel, and we know that they can't fire a missile at The United States, There would still be the possibility of Iran responding in sort of asymmetric ways with terror attacks, either in Europe or in The United States.

他们可能会将这场冲突拖得很长，远超过特朗普总统停止关注2026年伊朗行动之后。

They could draw this out over a very long time, long after president Trump has stopped thinking about the Iran operation of 2026.

如果政权的某些残余势力仍然存在，如果仍有一个对美国、以色列和欧洲持敌对态度的伊朗政府。

So if some remnants of the regime stay in place and if there is still a Iranian government that is adversarial to The United States and Israel and to Europe.

有很多理由让我们相信，未来存在危险。

There is a lot of reasons to think that there is danger in the future.

是的。

Mhmm.

这里还存在网络风险。

There's also cyber risk out here.

他们是相当熟练的网络行为体。

They're quite skilled cyber actors.

他们虽然达不到中国或俄罗斯的水平，但属于下一梯队。

They're not up at Chinese levels or necessarily the Russians, but they're in the next rank.

如果你没有能打到美国的导弹，你肯定拥有可以抵达的电子信号。

And if you don't have missiles that can reach The United States, you certainly do have electrons that can.

他们过去已经证明了自己知道如何使用这些手段。

And they've proven in the past that they know how to use them.

你们俩都谈到了伊朗动荡对美国及其盟友造成的全球性风险。

You both have talked about the risks as a result of instability in Iran around the world to The US and our allies.

最后这一点让我好奇，我们的盟友到目前为止是如何回应的？

And that last part does make me wonder, how have our allies responded so far?

中东地区的美国盟友在遭到伊朗周六袭击后，对此次行动表示了支持。

The American allies in The Middle East have responded with support for the operation, especially after they themselves were attacked by Iran on Saturday.

我想说的是沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋以及其他国家，至少在象征性层面上表达了对此次行动的支持，即便没有参与军事行动。

And I'm thinking of Saudi Arabia and The United Arab Emirates and other countries, they have at least said that symbolically, support the operation if not joining militarily.

欧洲的盟友在表达对此次行动的关切时则更为谨慎。

Allies in Europe are far more cautious in expressing concern about the operation.

至少在周六当天，西欧主要首都并没有对此次行动表现出太多欢呼。

There is not a great deal on Saturday, at least, of cheering in Western European capitals about the operation.

请记住，英国并未允许美国使用其在英国常驻的轰炸机基地来直接发动此次攻击，因为他们从根本上不认为美国有正当理由采取这一行动，也不愿参与其中。

Remember, the British would not let The US use the bomber base that The United States frequently makes use of in Great Britain to run this attack directly because they fundamentally didn't believe The United States had just cause to do the attack and didn't wanna be part of it.

我认为，此次行动引发的一个重大担忧是：他在委内瑞拉和伊朗的经历之后，是否会变得更加自信，将美国军事力量视为首要的胁迫工具？

And I think one of the big concerns coming out of this is, does he emerge from the Venezuela and Iran experiences emboldened to use the American military as his number one tool of coercion?

如果是这样，这将如何改变世界对美国的看法，以及其他国家领导人是否会效仿总统所认为的这种扩张性权力？

And if so, how does that change the way the world views The United States and the way other leaders may copy what the president views as his own expansive power?

这让我不禁怀疑，特朗普对欧洲采取的对抗立场，是否在这里起到了任何作用。

This sort of makes me wonder whether the antagonistic stance that Trump has taken toward Europe is a factor here at all.

当然，在两周前的慕尼黑安全会议上，许多欧洲官员对这场军事集结表达了大量怀疑，认为这只是他们在委内瑞拉问题上以及总统更模糊的关于夺取格陵兰岛的威胁之后所见过的类似威胁的延续。

Well, certainly at the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago, you heard a lot of skepticism about the military buildup from European officials who thought it was just an extension of the kind of threats they had seen around Venezuela and even the president's vaguer threats about taking Greenland.

我认为，从这次事件中浮现的一个重大担忧是：他在经历委内瑞拉和伊朗事件后，是否会变得更加大胆，将美国军队作为首要的胁迫工具？

And I think one of the big concerns coming out of this is, does he emerge from the Venezuela and Iran experiences emboldened to use the American military as his number one tool of coercion?

如果是这样，这将如何改变世界对美国的看法，以及其他国家领导人是否会效仿总统所认为的自己所拥有的广泛权力？

And, if so, how does that change the way the world views The United States and the way other leaders may copy what the president views as his own expansive power?

让我们暂时退一步来看，如果我们看到这个政权因这次袭击而垮台，特朗普总统在演讲中表示，他给予伊朗人民的是其他任何总统都不愿给予、而他们一直渴望的东西。

Stepping back here for a second, if we see the regime toppled as a result of this attack, president Trump said in his speech that he was giving the Iranian people something that no other president was willing to give them and that they have always wanted.

如果这真的成功了，你觉得我们将来会不会回望过去的总统，问自己为什么这么早就没有采取这样的行动？

If this actually works, do you think we will look back at past presidents and ask ourselves why we didn't do this long ago?

马克，你怎么看？

Mark, what do you think?

回想一下2023年10月7日那天的情景，也就是两年半前。

So think back about where we were on 10/07/2023, so two and a half years ago.

当时伊朗处于一种相对稳固的状态。

There had been this sort of static position where Iran was strong.

伊朗拥有其最强大的代理力量——黎巴嫩的真主党，它基本上利用这支力量来威慑任何攻击。

It had its most powerful proxy force, Hezbollah, in Lebanon that it was basically using to deter any attacks.

自10月7日和加沙战争爆发后，以色列开始在整个中东地区发动袭击，包括在黎巴嫩，以打击真主党。

After October 7 and after the Gaza War, Israel started striking all over the place in The Middle East, including in Lebanon, to take down Hezbollah.

一旦这种情况发生，就引发了一系列连锁反应，使得中东地区，特别是伊朗的军事行动门槛被降低。

And once that happened, it sort of set off this kind of chain reaction where the bar got lowered for military action in The Middle East and specifically in Iran.

因此，我认为非常重要的是要认真思考过去两年半中东地区发生的巨大变化，正是这些变化促成了我们如今所看到的、由美国主导的政权更迭战争。

So I think it's important to really think about just how extraordinary the last two and a half years have been in The Middle East to sort of bring about the dynamic that we are actually seeing with a regime change war led by The United States.

对于所有质疑二战后国际秩序是否正在崩溃的人而言，这将是另一项证据，因为我们过去通常认为中东和平应通过持续谈判实现，让所有邻国达成协议，最终促使阿拉伯国家承认以色列、以色列提出两国方案等等。

And, you know, for everybody who wonders if we're seeing the collapse of the post World War two order, This is going to be another piece of the evidence because usually we have thought about Middle East peace by constant negotiations, locking all of the neighbors into agreements that would ultimately result in the Arabs recognizing Israel, in Israel coming up with a two state solution, and so forth.

特朗普总统尝试了一种非常不同的方法。

President Trump has tried a very different experiment.

这种方法通过美国和以色列的武力，来塑造其他国家的未来。

It's one in which he shows that by the use of American force and Israeli force, he can shape the future of other nations.

而当前的问题是，他是在塑造这些国家的未来，还是在为它们打开更多混乱的大门？

And the question right now is, is he shaping their future, or is he opening them up to more chaos?

在这个戏剧性的时刻，我们还无法确定。

And in this dramatic moment, we simply can't yet tell.

马克·马泽蒂，大卫·桑格，非常感谢你们抽出时间。

Mark Mazzetti, David Sanger, thank you both so much for your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

本期节目由罗谢尔·邦贾、亚历山德拉·李·杨、香农·林和林赛·加里森制作，并得到埃里克·克鲁普克的帮助。

Today's episode was produced by Rochelle Bonja, Alexandra Lee Young, Shannon Lynn, and Lindsey Garrison with help from Eric Krupke.

节目由佩吉·考特和MJ·戴维斯·林恩剪辑。

It was edited by Paige Cowet and MJ Davis Lynn.

音乐由黛安·王、索菲亚·兰德曼和玛丽安·洛萨诺提供。

Contains music by Diane Wong, Sofia Landman, and Marian Lozano.