美国误判导致空袭小学事件

我们向《纽约时报》的员工提前展示了跨平台联机功能，以下是他们的反馈。

We gave Times employees a preview of cross play from New York Times games, and here's what they had to say.

我终于可以和其他人一起玩了。

I can finally play with other people.

我很有竞争心。

I'm pretty competitive.

击败朋友和同事很有趣。

It's fun to beat friends and coworkers.

我有一个J，得10分。

I have a j for 10 points.

我猜'tango'不是一个单词。

I'm guessing tango is not a word.

我们来看看。

Let's see.

tango是一个单词。

Tango is a word.

哦。

Oh.

作为一名英语作为第二语言的学习者，我喜欢学习新单词。

As in English as a second language speaker, I like to learn new words.

跨平台对战，纽约时报游戏推出的首款双人文字游戏。

Crossplay, the first two player word game from New York Times games.

今天免费下载吧。

Download it for free today.

来自纽约时报，我是迈克尔·博尔瓦罗。

From New York Times, I'm Michael Bolvarro.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

周三，美国官员承认，纽约时报的调查报道越来越清晰地表明，美国军方对袭击伊朗一所小学并造成至少175人死亡、其中大多数是儿童的空袭负有责任。

On Wednesday, American officials conceded what's become increasingly clear from investigative reporting by The Times that the United States military was responsible for the air strike that destroyed an elementary school in Iran, killing at least a 175 people, most of them small children.

今天，我的同事马拉奇·布朗和朱利安·巴恩斯将讲述是什么导致了数十年来最惨重的军事失误之一。

Today, my colleagues, Malachy Browne and Julian Barnes, on what led to one of the most devastating military errors in decades.

今天是3月12日，星期四。

It's Thursday, March 12.

马拉奇，从某种真实的意义上说，你可能是世界上最早意识到这场毁灭性空袭很可能是由美国发动的人之一，或许还是军方之外最早发现这一点的人，而这一判断如今已得到美国军方初步调查的确认？

Malachy, it feels like in a very real sense, you were among the first people in the world, perhaps outside the military, to understand that this devastating airstrike was likely carried out by The United States, a determination that has now been confirmed preliminarily by an American military investigation?

嗯，迈克尔，我不确定是不是这样，但当我们刚开始调查时，就怀疑事情出了严重问题。

Well, Michael, I'm not sure about that, we but suspected that something went terribly wrong as soon as we started looking at it.

既然现在这不再只是怀疑，而是变得相当确定了，我想回到事件发生之初。

Well, now that this is no longer a suspicion, but something that feels so more or less firm, I wanna go back to when this all happened.

因为事件发生的时间点很重要。

Because the timing of it is important.

它发生的时间正好与美国和以色列杀死伊朗最高领袖的时刻相近，当时全世界的目光都聚焦在那件事上。

It happened around the same moment that The US and Israel killed Iran's supreme leader, and all the world's eyes were on that.

而另一次空袭几乎同时发生，但起初却受到的关注少得多。

And this other airstrike was more or less in parallel, but getting a lot less attention at first.

但一旦我们意识到发生了什么，都感到震惊。

But once we all realized what had happened, it was shocking.

这是一所被导弹击中的小学，175名平民，大多是儿童，不幸遇难。

This was a elementary school blown up by a missile, and a 175 civilians, mostly children were killed.

所以我想花一点时间谈谈这件事的规模。

So I just wanna talk for a moment about the scale of this.

是的。

Yes.

这彻底摧毁了这所学校的所在地——米纳布镇。

It has devastated Minab, the town where this school was located.

星期六早上是伊朗一周的开始，也是学校一周的开始。

Saturday morning is the start of the the week and the school week in Iran.

所以当时学校正在上课。

So school was in session.

那里的教师工会表示，当时学校里有超过260名学生。

The teachers union there said that over 260 students were in the school at the time.

天哪。

Wow.

这些孩子大多在七到十二岁之间。

And most of these kids are aged seven to 12.

根据卫生官员和当地总督的说法，他们中的大多数人与教师一起在袭击中丧生，这真是极其惨烈。

And according to health officials and the local governor there, most of them were killed in the strike along with teachers, and it really is is absolutely horrific what has happened.

是的。

Right.

很难想象这场灾难影响了多少人的生命。

It's kind of hard to fathom just how many lives were affected by this.

这是一场巨大的悲剧。

It's just an enormous tragedy.

这实在是

It's absolutely

难以理解，也难以设身处地为他们着想。

hard to understand and to put yourself in the in their position.

我的意思是，米纳布是伊朗南部的一个小镇。

I mean, Minab is a small town in in Southern Iran.

这影响了那里的整个社区。

This has affected the entire community there.

显然，直系亲属受到了影响，但那些从当地流出的图片——街道上挤满了为这些孩子和老师送葬的人群——真的令人心碎。

Obviously, the direct relatives, but just the pictures coming out of there, of the streets thronged for the funerals of these children and their teachers are really heartbreaking.

你知道，有照片显示，母亲们扑在孩子们敞开的棺材上，与他们做最后的告别。

You know, there are pictures of mothers throwing themselves over the open coffins of their children as they're saying goodbye to them.

成百上千口棺材列队穿过街道，人们向棺材撒玫瑰花瓣，分发糖果以示哀悼。

Scores of coffins brought on a procession through the streets, you know, people throwing rose petals at them, sharing them with sweets.

那里有成千上万的人。

There were thousands of people out there.

当然，许多听众可能都见过那张航拍照片——在离学校五英里外的墓地里，整整一百个新挖的坟墓。

And, of course, that aerial photograph that many listeners may have seen of the freshly dug graves, a 100 of them in a plot in a cemetery just five miles away from the school.

这充分展现了社区所承受的损失之巨大。

It kinda spoke to the scale of the loss for the community there.

是的。

Mhmm.

而这里发生的一切，显然是几十年来美国战争中最惨烈的事件之一。

And whatever happened here, it was clearly one of the most devastating incidents in an American war in decades.

这就是为什么你和我们新闻编辑部视觉调查团队着手调查发生了什么、为什么会发生，以及谁该对此负责。

Which is why you and a team of people on the Visual Investigations desk here in our newsroom set about trying to get to the bottom of what happened and and why it happened and who was responsible.

你能从头到尾给我们讲讲你们是如何查明真相的吗？

Can you talk us through what you did from the very beginning to figure that out?

嗯，这一事件是由我们国际部的同事向我们通报的。

Well, the incident was flagged to us by our colleagues in international.

当时有一段视频在传播，显示了据称遭到袭击的校舍的即时 aftermath，人们正在废墟外翻找，浓烟滚滚。

There was a video circulating, showing the immediate aftermath of the school building reportedly struck and people rummaging through the rubble outside, smoke billowing from it.

因此，第一个挑战是核实视频中看到的建筑物确实是学校，并确定它的具体位置。

So the first challenge was to verify that the building that we were seeing in videos of the aftermath of the strike was in fact a school and then where it is.

在视频中，你可以看到明亮的浅色墙壁，上面有孩子们画的画。

In the video, you can see, you know, bright pastel colored walls with paintings drawn by children.

其他一些图片来自建筑内部，展示了教室环境以及色彩鲜艳的绘画。

Other images were taken from the inside of the building that showed classroom settings and also colorful drawings.

所以从一开始它看起来就像一所学校。

So it looked like a school from the outset.

其次，它在哪里？

And then secondly, where is it?

我们不在米纳布，我也从未去过那里。

We're not in Minab, and I never have been there.

你实际上在爱尔兰。

You're in fact in Ireland.

是的。

Yeah.

我在爱尔兰利默里克郊外。

I'm outside Limerick in Ireland.

但我们能获取米纳布地区的最新卫星图像，我可以查看该区域，找到谷歌地球上标识的学校等信息。

But we've access to satellite imagery, recent satellite imagery of Minab, and I'm able to look around the area and see, you know, find schools that are identified in Google Earth and whatnot.

这个学校实际上在谷歌地球上没有标注，但我们听说它靠近一个军事基地。

This one actually wasn't marked on Google Earth, but we had heard that it was near a military base.

因此，通过找到军事基地，我们能够识别出一栋建筑，然后将这栋建筑的轮廓、尺寸以及周围的树木与视频中所见进行对比。

And so by finding the military base, we were able to identify a building and then compare the contours of that building, the size of it, the trees around it with what we were seeing in the video.

视频显然就是在该地点拍摄的，展示了这所学校。

And the video was clearly taken at that location and showed the school.

嗯。

Mhmm.

在卫星图像中，还有其他许多细节表明这是一所学校。

And then in the satellite imagery, there were all other details that suggested to us that this was a school.

你可以看到跳房子的区域、沥青地面上标记的其他游乐区，旁边还有一个运动场。

You could see a hopscotch area, other play areas marked in the asphalt there, there's a sports field beside it.

我想，其中最让我们震惊的一点是，在学校的废墟中，你能看到学生的课本、小小的书包和背包，以及孩子们穿的鲜艳鞋子，而家长们正在翻找这些书籍，试图确认是否属于他们的亲人。

And I suppose one of the things was that, you know, one of the most striking things for us was that around the school, amid the rubble, you could see school books and small little school bags and backpacks and bright shoes of children who attended the school, and then parents rifling through these books to see if if if it belonged to their loved one.

根据你所描述的图像，这显然是一所正在有孩子就读的学校。

Well, from the images that you're describing, it's quite obviously a school with children actively attending it.

因此，理论上，袭击者本该一眼就能认出这是所学校。

And so in theory, that should be obvious to whoever struck it.

那么问题来了，为什么没人看出来呢？

And the question is why wasn't it obvious?

为什么会被击中？是谁没看出来？

Why was it hit and who didn't?

没错。

That's right.

我们还发现，它位于伊斯兰革命卫队海军基地旁边，而革命卫队是伊朗最强大的军事力量，这所学校曾经是该基地的一部分。

Well, we were also able to determine that it was located beside a naval base of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is Iran's most powerful military, and it was once a part of it.

我们从历史卫星图像中看到，早在2013年，这所学校的建筑还被包含在那个更大的矩形军事基地范围内。

We could see in historic satellite imagery that back in 2013, the building that the school was in was once encompassed within that broader rectangular military base.

是的。

Yeah.

到了2016年，它被围了起来。

And then by 2016, it was walled off.

该区域被清理了。

The area was cleared.

瞭望塔被移除了。

Watchtowers were removed.

开放了公共入口，并清理了地面以作为活动场地。

Public entrances were opened into it, and the ground was cleared for playing areas.

它被涂上了各种鲜艳的颜色，因此看起来像一所学校，确实被用于民用目的。

It was painted all these bright colors so it had become know, you it looked like a school and definitely was used for civilian purposes.

但它就位于一个军事设施旁边，而在对伊朗战争的初期阶段，这些设施正遭到攻击。

But it was sitting right beside a military site, and they were being targeted in these early hours of the war on Iran.

所以，既然知道这一点……

So so knowing that

此时，你们的调查还处于非常早期的阶段，这究竟向你们暗示了什么？

at this point, you're still very early on in your investigation, what does this suggest exactly to you?

十年前，它曾是伊斯兰革命卫队军事综合体的一部分。

The fact that ten years ago, it was part of an IRGC military complex.

这表明这可能是一次重大的情报失误，有人将这所学校误判为合法的军事目标，因为我们从其他经过核实的视频中看到，基地内的建筑确实遭到了打击。

It suggested that this might be a massive intelligence failure, and somebody identified the school as being a legitimate military target because we could see from other videos that we also verified that buildings inside in the base had been hit.

通过梳理所有这些报告，我们知道学校和基地是在同一时间被击中的。

And by time lining out all of those reports, we knew that the school and the base were hit around the same time.

因此，看起来最初的攻击波次误中了学校，同时波及了基地内的军事目标。

So it looked like that opening wave of attacks mistakenly hit the school alongside the military targets in the base.

为明确这一点，即使这所学校在过去十年里一直作为学校使用，是否有任何迹象表明伊朗革命卫队曾将建筑的任何部分用作军事设施？

Just to get this out of the way, did anything suggest that even if this has been a school for the past ten years, that the IRGC was using any part of the building as a military facility?

没有。

No.

没有任何证据表明该学校内存在任何军事功能，嗯。

There there was there was no evidence of any military function Mhmm.

在该学校校区内。

In that school compound.

那么，你们如何确定这场冲突中的哪一方发动了这场明显针对学校的袭击？

So then how do you go about determining which one of the combatants in this conflict strikes this quite clearly school?

因为看起来只有两个明显的嫌疑人：美国或以色列。

Because it feels like there's two obvious candidates, The United States or Israel.

但当然，我猜你不能完全排除这种可能性，因为在以往的中东冲突和其他冲突中，确实发生过伊朗自己误射并对此负责的情况。

But, of course, I'm guessing you can't entirely discount the possibility because this has happened in previous Middle Eastern conflicts and all conflicts, that perhaps Iran itself may have misfired and been responsible for this.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

在调查初期，这确实是一个可能性。

That was a possibility in the early stages of the investigation.

其中一部分工作是试图确定基地内哪些目标被击中，以及是如何被击中的。

And part of it was trying to identify what was hit in the base, how it was hit.

这些是精确打击吗？

Were these precise strikes?

基地里到处都是弹坑吗？

Were there craters littering the base?

我们无法进入基地内部，而且它不对公众开放。

We couldn't look inside it, and it's not open to the public.

因此那里没有视频流出，但我们能够获取卫星图像提供商的数据。

And so there were no videos emerging from there, but we have access to satellite imagery providers.

因此，我们订购了一张高分辨率图像，以便观察盆地内部的情况，了解造成了何种破坏以及如何造成的。

And so we ordered a high resolution image that would give us a look inside the basin and see what damage was wrought and how.

那揭示了什么？

And and what did that reveal?

结果显示，几座建筑被精准打击彻底摧毁，甚至可以看到有弹孔直接贯穿了军事基地内大型仓库和建筑物的中心。

So it showed that several buildings had been destroyed very tidally by precise strikes, and you could even see that there were holes, punched through right the center of these large warehouses and buildings inside in the military base.

学校也遭到了袭击。

And the school also was hit.

你可以看到，它的一半以上已被摧毁。

You could see that more than half of it had been destroyed.

有一个白色的巨大破洞，形状几乎呈圆形。

There was a white gaping hole, almost circular in in shape.

这表明这些建筑是被精确制导导弹击中的，而这正是以色列和美国的典型特征，同时也体现了情报规划在早期打击中提前摧毁基础设施的策略。

And so that indicated that these buildings were hit with precision guided missiles, and that's characteristic of Israeli and US capabilities, but it's also characteristic of intelligence planning to take out infrastructure ahead of time in these early strikes hitting the country.

明白了。

Got it.

所以根据你当时看到的情况，这并非偶然，也不太可能是其他打击的附带损伤。

So this was not accidental based on what you're seeing at that point, and probably not a byproduct of some other strike.

根据你刚才的描述，这似乎并不是某次打击产生的破片误中学校的案例。

It's not a case, it seems, of shrapnel from one strike hitting the school based on what you just described.

因此，在你看来，伊朗似乎已经被排除在可能的实施者之外了。

And so it feels like Iran, in your mind, is being taken out of the category of likely candidate.

那么现在只剩下以色列和美国了。

And so now you're left with Israel and The US.

那么你如何判断这两者中究竟是谁干的呢？

So how do you figure out which of those two are responsible?

去问他们问题。

Ask them questions.

以色列国防军的一名发言人第二天，也就是周日表示，当时他们并没有在该地区活动。

A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said the day afterwards, on the Sunday, that they weren't operating in the area at that time.

我的同事亚伦·博克曼询问了美国中央司令部，他们表示调查仍在进行中，因此我们没有从他们那里获得太多信息。

And my colleague, Aaron Boxerman, questioned US Central Command, and they said their investigation was ongoing, so we didn't get much information from them.

然而，上周三

However, on Wednesday of last week

就此，我将发言权交予主席。

And with that, I turn it over to the chairman.

谢谢您，部长先生，大家早上好。

Thank you, mister secretary, and good morning, everyone.

上周举行了一场由国防部长佩特·赫格塞斯和参联会主席丹·凯恩将军共同出席的新闻发布会。

There was a press conference with secretary Pete Hegseth and general Dan Cain, the joint chief's chairman.

让我切换到地图。

Let me flip to the map here.

凯恩将军举起了一张地图，展示了冲突头一百小时内美国和以色列的行动。

And general Cain held up a map showing The US and Israeli operations in the first one hundred hours of the conflict.

是的。

Mhmm.

他用激光笔指向伊朗南部，称美国主要打击的是南部目标。

And using a laser pointer, he swung by the South of Iran, and he said The US was primarily striking targets in the South.

在南部轴线上，具备弹道导弹能力以及综合防空能力。

Ballistic missile capabilities as well as integrated air defense capabilities along the southern axis.

在北部轴线上，以色列及其空军主要在开展行动。

Along the northern axis, Israel and the Israeli Air Force has predominantly been working.

以色列在北部和西部地区进行了行动。

And Israel was operating in the North and the West.

甚至在这张地图上，还有一个打击目标位置，该位置位于马纳布周边区域。

And even on that map, there was a strike location, and that strike location is in the area around Manab.

根据以色列官员的说法、丹·凯恩将军的表述，以及我们所使用武器的类型，嗯。

So from what Israeli officials were saying and what general Dan Cain was saying and based on the type of weapon we used Mhmm.

证据越来越指向这是一次美国的打击行动。

The evidence was pointing more and more towards a US strike.

对。

Right.

因为学校位于伊朗南部。

Because the school is in the South Of Iran.

没错，迈克尔。

That's right, Michael.

然后我们获得了这段非常关键的视频证据。

And then we obtained this really critical piece of video evidence.

这段视频是在海军基地对面的建筑工地拍摄的，显示一枚导弹飞来，没有击中学校，而是击中了基地。

It was filmed across the street from the naval base at a construction site, and it shows a missile coming in, not hitting the school, but hitting the base.

嗯。

Mhmm.

在撞击前的几毫秒里，你可以看到导弹在蓝天背景下的轮廓，这为识别导弹类型提供了可能。

And in the milliseconds before impact, you can see the silhouette of the weapon against the blue sky, which opens the possibility of identifying what type of weapon this is.

嗯。

Mhmm.

现在，研究组织Bellingcat的武器专家特雷弗·鲍尔识别出这是战斧导弹，我们也得出了同样的结论。

Now Trevor Ball, who's a weapons expert with the research group, Bellingcat, he identified it as a Tomahawk missile, and we also did.

我们咨询了其他武器专家，我的同事约翰·伊斯梅——他本人也是武器专家——对此进行了分析。

We spoke to other weapons experts, and my colleague, John Ismay, who himself is a weapons expert, analyzed it.

根据其尺寸和设计，这明显是一枚战斧巡航导弹，这一点很重要，因为这场战争中唯一拥有战斧导弹的国家是美国。

And based on the dimensions and the design of it, it was clearly a Tomahawk cruise missile, and that's significant because the only party in this war with Tomahawks is The United States.

因此，证据强烈指向美国负有责任。

And so the evidence is really pointing towards US culpability.

是的。

Right.

导弹袭击，很可能是战斧导弹摧毁了那所伊朗女子学校。

Missile strike and a Tomahawk missile likely destroy that Iranian girls school.

那么美国会承认任何责任吗？

So will the Americans will The US accept any responsibility?

我们还没看到过。

Well, haven't seen it.

然后在周一的新闻发布会上，特朗普总统提出伊朗发射了这枚战斧导弹的可能性。

And then at a news conference on Monday, president Trump posited the idea that Iran fired the Tomahawk.

战斧导弹被许多国家使用，也出售给其他国家。

Around is used by you know, is sold and used by other countries.

你知道的。

You know that.

而且伊朗也拥有一些战斧导弹，他们希望能有更多。

And whether it's Iran who also has some tomahawks, they wish they had more.

再次强调，尽管我们掌握了所有信息。

Once again, despite all the information we have.

是的。

Yeah.

我不清楚他从哪里获取这些信息。

I like, we don't know where he's getting his information from.

我们的同事肖恩·麦克雷奇，作为《纽约时报》白宫记者，就在现场，向特朗普总统提问。

And our colleague Sean McCreche, who covers the White House for the times, is there and asks president Trump.

你刚刚暗示伊朗 somehow 搞到了一枚战斧导弹，并在战争第一天轰炸了自己的一所小学。

You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war.

但你是你政府里唯一这么说的人。

But you're the only person in your government saying this.

就连你的国防部长被问到时，站在你飞机上，也绝不会这么说。

Even your defense secretary wouldn't say that when he was asked standing over your shoulder on your plane on Saturday.

为什么只有你一个人这么说？

Why are you the only person saying this?

因为我对这件事了解得不够。

Because I just don't know enough about it.

我认为这是有人告诉我的，正在调查中的事情。

I think it's something that I was told is under investigation.

特朗普总统说，我们正在等待调查结果。

And president Trump says, well, we're waiting for the results of an investigation.

如果调查发现是我们做的，我愿意接受这个结果。

And if the investigation finds that it's us, I'm willing to live with that.

但无论报告得出什么结论，我都愿意接受那份报告。

But I will certainly whatever the, report shows, I'm willing to live with that report.

而就在几天后，正是这种情况开始发生。

Which is, in a couple of days, precisely what starts to happen.

对。

Correct.

我们华盛顿的同事所接触的、接近此次调查的官员表示，初步调查结果发现美国应对此次学校袭击事件负责。

Officials that our colleagues in Washington DC spoke to, who are close to the investigation say that the preliminary findings find that The US is responsible for the school strike.

好吧，马拉奇，非常感谢。

Well, Malachy, thank you very much.

我们很感激。

We appreciate it.

谢谢，迈克尔。

Thanks, Michael.

广告后，我的同事朱利安·巴恩斯将详细介绍美国政府调查的具体发现。

After the break, my colleague, Julian Barnes, on exactly what the US government investigation has found.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

我是阿什利。

This is Ashley.

我和我的男朋友住在旧金山。

I live in San Francisco with my boyfriend.

我们很想正式共享我的《纽约时报》订阅，并使用独立的登录账号。

We would love to officially share my New York Times subscription with separate logins.

我们都喜欢做饭，喜欢待在厨房里，但我是个三十分钟内搞定高效晚餐的女生。

We both love cooking, love being in the kitchen, but I'm a thirty minute and under efficient dinner girly.

我想要一份烤盘餐。

I want a sheet pan meal.

他非常讲究。

He is very elaborate.

他想深入故事的讲述。

He wants to get into the storytelling.

我希望可以保存我简单的菜谱，并标记已完成的菜品，我觉得他拥有自己的个人资料会很好。

I wanna be able to save my easy meals and check off the ones that I've completed, and I think him having his own profile would be great.

艾希莉，我们听到你的需求了。

Ashley, we heard you.

隆重推出《纽约时报》家庭订阅方案。

Introducing The New York Times Family Subscription.

你将拥有自己的登录账号，而

You get your own login, and Mr.

‘精致先生’也会有他的，另外还能再添加两位成员。

Elaborate gets his, plus room for two others.

了解更多信息，请访问 nytimes.com/family。

Find out more at nytimes.com/family.

朱利安，你和《纽约时报》的几位同事在周三上午披露了一则新闻，称美国政府的一项初步调查已认定，美国军方应对我们与马拉奇讨论的这起小学空袭事件负责。

Julian, you and a team of our colleagues at the Times broke the story on Wednesday morning that a preliminary investigation by the US government has determined that the United States military was responsible for the air strike on this elementary school that we have been talking about with Malachy.

那么，请告诉我们你对这项调查有何了解。

So tell us what you've come to understand about that investigation.

嗯，我们了解到的情况是，负责调查此事的美国官员已得出结论，认为美国负有责任。

Well, what we've learned is that The US officials who have been looking into this have come to the conclusion that The US was responsible.

是的

The

军方使用了过时的信息来确定袭击当天的目标，并且没有更新数据。

military took old information and used it to make the targets on the day of the strike, and they did not update the data.

他们没有核实，也没有意识到我们现在都知道的事实——这所学校早在十年前或更早就已经存在了。

They did not verify it and realize what we've all come to know now that this became a school a decade or more ago.

对。

Right.

十年前确实是很早以前了。

And ten years is a very long time ago.

所以你是说，无论是地图还是坐标，他们到底使用了什么过时的信息？

So you're suggesting that whether it was maps or coordinates, what exactly was it that they were using that was this outdated?

国防情报局是收集信息的机构之一。

So the Defense Intelligence Agency is one of the agencies that gathers information.

他们通过地图和其他数据来源收集信息，并将这些信息整合到一个大型数据库中，然后向前推送。

And they do it from maps, and they do it from other pieces of data, and they they put it into a big database that they will push forward.

基本上是一个目标清单。

As basically a target list.

作为目标清单，或者你从中提取目标清单的依据。

As a target list or what you will draw your target list from.

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

制定目标是一个复杂的过程。

Making a target is a complicated process.

而军事调查的下一步就是弄清楚：验证环节是否根本没有进行？

And that's the next stage of the military investigation to figure out, did the verification not take place?

它是否未能揭示真相？

Did it fail to reveal the truth?

这个过程在哪个环节出现了故障？

Where did that process break down?

因为旧数据一直在不断录入，而且系统本应设有安全网来捕捉这些错误。

Because there's old data that's entered all the time, and there are safety nets that are meant to catch it.

但这次在这里，它们却没有捕捉到。

But it they didn't catch it in this place.

我认为我们应该花一点时间来思考，验证过程本该多么简单明了。

I I do think we should linger for a moment on how seemingly straightforward verification would have been.

我这么说是因为我们的同事马拉基，仅凭商业卫星图像就确定了那是一所学校。

And I say that because our colleague, Malachy, used commercially available satellite photos to determine that this was a school.

更不用说，美国拥有无人机和飞机，能够从很远的地方监控学校这类场所，即使原始数据是十年前的，也能确定谁在进出建筑物。

And that's not to mention the fact that The US has drones and planes capable of monitoring a place like a school from very far away, and determining, even if the original data was ten years old, who's coming in and out of a building.

而这项工作可能并不需要花太长时间。

And that work might not have taken very long.

因此，很难理解美国军方为何仅仅依赖十年前的数据，而没有进行任何简单的后续核查，这些核查本可以轻易揭示数据已经过时。

And so it gets hard to understand how the US military could only be reliant on ten year old data without doing any of the very simple forms of follow-up that would have shown that it was out of date.

选择和核实目标的系统非常复杂。

The system for picking targets and verifying targets is very complex.

本应进行双重核查。

There is supposed to be a double check.

本应进行三重核查。

There is supposed to be a triple check.

你会从国防情报局获取数据。

You get data from the Defense Intelligence Agency.

你会用国家地理空间情报局的卫星图像进行交叉验证，他们负责查看卫星图片。

You cross check it with satellite imagery from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, the people who look at the satellite pictures.

你有各种计算机程序，本应帮助你——分析师——完成这项工作。

You have all kinds of computer programs that are supposed to help you, the analyst, do this.

你有本应审查数据的人工智能。

You have AI that's supposed to review it.

你还有自己的专业知识。

You have your own expertise.

然后，情报官员应将这些信息转交给作战官员，后者本应进行最后的核查，确认目标确实如所述那样。

And then the intelligence officer is supposed to take it and then give it to the operations officer who is hopefully doing a last check that it is what they say it is.

系统中本设有多个层级来防止这种情况，但我们正处在一个要求军队快速行动的时代。

There are levels built into the system that are supposed to catch this, but we are in an era when they want the military to move fast.

他们希望军队敢于打破常规。

They want the military to be willing to break things.

而这套核查机制已经失效了。

And the system of checks broke down.

我们还不完全清楚具体如何发生、何时发生，但关键事实是，使用了十年前的数据，最终导致了灾难。

We do not fully know how and when, but the bottom line is ten year old data was used, and it resulted in a catastrophe.

我想聚焦一下你提到的某个点，因为这确实感觉很重要。

I I wanna zero in on something you said because it does feel important.

我们现在有一位国防部长，皮特·海格塞斯，他经常谈论旧流程有多么繁琐，轻视旧规则，却极度关注杀伤力。

We now have a defense secretary in Pete Hegseth who routinely talks about how cumbersome old processes were, is dismissive of the old rules and very focused on lethality.

他甚至直言不讳地说：‘不再有交战规则了。’

I mean, he literally said, no more rules of engagement.

那么，是否存在一种认知——或许现在更是一种假设而非确证——这种理念在这里起到了作用？

So is there an understanding, and perhaps at this point, it's an assumption rather than a determination, that that ethos played a role here?

所以，这就是我在问的问题。

So this is the question I am asking.

这也是我的同事们在问的问题。

This is the question my colleagues are asking.

这是显而易见的问题。

It's the obvious question.

国防部长皮特·哈格塞特一直说，这些规则太过繁琐，让军队变得软弱、受意识形态左右。

Secretary of defense Pete Hagsett has been saying that these rules are too cumbersome, that they make a weak, woke military.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Mhmm.

所以，这就是美国军队当前所处的环境。

So this is the environment that the US military is operating in.

话虽如此，我们并没有报告表明取消平民伤亡规则在这里起到了作用。

That said, we do not have reporting that the elimination of the civilian casualty rules played a part here.

是的。

Right.

我很好奇，朱利安，基于你多年来报道这类事件的经验，你觉得在这种情况下问责会是什么样子？

I'm curious, Julian, what you think based on your many years covering these kinds of incidents, what accountability might look like in a case like this.

你认为会有人因此被解雇吗？

Do you think that it's likely anyone will be fired for this?

是否会有人试图让个人或整个指挥链承担责任？

Will there be any effort to hold individuals or an entire chain of command responsible?

是否会有人试图向遇难者家属提供赔偿？

Will there be any effort to compensate the families of those killed?

我的意思是，‘赔偿’这个词非常 inadequate，因为我们谈论的是被杀的小孩。

I mean, compensation is a very inadequate word given that we're talking about small children who were killed.

但你觉得这件事之后会发生什么？

But what do you think happens as a result of this?

在不同的政府下，这种情况的处理方式会完全相反，我们会看到一位总统不去指责对手。

In a different administration, this would have been handled in the complete opposite way, We would be having a president not blaming the opponent.

我们不会有一个总统急于下结论。

We would not have a president rushing to judgment.

然后，美国可能会寻求道歉，甚至可能向遇难家庭提供赔偿。

And then you'd have The US looking to potentially make an apology, potentially to do compensation to the families.

在阿富汗，当平民被错误 targeting 或在其他正确的军事行动中造成平民伤亡时，都会定期进行赔偿。

In Afghanistan, there was regular compensation when civilians were wrongly targeted or when there was a civilian casualty in an otherwise correct military operation.

但这是一个非常不同的政府。

But this is a very different administration.

他们不喜欢道歉。

They do not like to apologize.

这种事情不会导致你被解雇。

This is not the kind of thing that gets you fired.

另一方面，我们仍然拥有一支专业的军队。

On the other hand, we still have a professional military.

他们遵循我们的价值观。

They operate on our ethos.

他们会进行调查。

They do investigations.

因此会有一些经验教训和问责措施。

And so there will be a measure of lessons learned, accountability.

军队会努力防止这种情况再次发生。

The military will try to prevent this from happening again.

我们知道，总统特朗普在回应我们同事肖恩·麦克里什的问题时说，他会接受这项调查的调查结果。

What we know is that president Trump, in response to a question from our colleague Sean MacRish, said that he would go along with the findings of this investigation.

因此，我想知道，他或白宫是否就你们通过初步调查所发现的内容发表过任何声明。

And so I'm curious what, if anything, he or the White House has said about what you have all learned this investigation preliminarily has found.

嗯，新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在给我们的声明中强调，这些只是初步发现。

Well, Carolyn Levitt, the press secretary, in her statement to us, you know, emphasized that these are preliminary findings.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但当天晚些时候

But later in the day

总统先生。

Mister president.

总统先生。

Mister president.

第11天。

Day 11.

正如您所知

And as you know

当特朗普总统走向海军陆战队一号时，他停下来与那里的记者交谈，其中一名记者大声问了一个关于我们报道的问题。

As president Trump was walking to Marine 1, he stopped to talk to the reporters there, and and one of them shouted out a question about our story.

报告指出，一份新报告称，美军调查发现，美国袭击了伊朗的一所学校。

And the report shows a new report says that the military investigation has found that The United States struck the school in Iran.

作为三军统帅，您对此负责。

As commander in chief, you take responsibility for that.

这是什么意思？

That is what?

你什么意思

What do

你可以看到他后退了一步。

You could see him take a step back.

我不知道你是不是

I don't know about Are you

你是不是

Are you

然后他说，我不清楚这件事。

And then he said, I don't know about that.

这是一种与该报道保持距离的表现。

It was a kind of a distancing from the story.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以我不知道我们是否能期待唐纳德·特朗普对这些发现或最终的军事调查作出回应。

So I don't know if we can expect Donald Trump to engage with these findings or the final military investigation.

这是一个令人不舒服的话题。

It is an uncomfortable subject.

这并不是他想谈论的那种胜利的例子。

It is not the kind of example of winning that he wants to talk about.

朱利安，你刚才提到了阿富汗。

Julian, you had mentioned a few moments ago Afghanistan.

事实上，这里发生的事情——美国会犯错并导致平民死亡——并不是什么新现象。

And the reality is that what happened here, the idea that The US would make a mistake and that it would kill civilians, it's not a new phenomenon.

我们在节目中经常谈论这个。

We talk about it a lot on the show.

目前，美国主要通过空中方式开展战争。

War right now, as The United States largely conducts it, is from the air.

这通过无人机或远距离发射导弹的军舰实现，我们认为这正是这所学校事件中发生的情况。

And it's through drones or warships firing missiles from very far away, which is what we think happened in the case of this school.

这样做的目的是让美国士兵免于地面作战可能带来的伤害。

And the idea is that it insulates American soldiers from harm that would come from being on the ground.

但现在的风险已经非常清楚了。

But the risks are now very plain.

作为军队，我们经常因为不够接近目标而无法了解那里是谁，从而误杀平民。

And we somewhat regularly, as a military, kill civilians because we aren't close enough to the targets to understand who's there.

几年前这种情况尤其严重，我们曾做过一期节目，讲述美军在阿富汗误杀了一名男子，当时我们以为他是袭击的嫌疑人，但实际上他是一名援助工作者，我们还杀死了他家九口人，包括他的七个孩子。

That was especially true a few years back, and we did an episode about it, when the US military killed a man in Afghanistan who we believed was a suspect of an attack when in fact he was an aid worker, and we killed nine members of his family, including his seven children.

这种现代美国战争方式是否会更容易出错？

Is this form of modern American warfare just gonna be far more error prone?

无论打什么仗，都会出现错误。

No matter what war you're in, there are going to be errors.

会有人为失误。

There are gonna be human errors.

也会有机器故障。

There are gonna be machine errors.

战争中不可能完全避免错误。

You can't get away from mistakes in warfare.

但你说得对。

But what you say is true.

对吧？

Right?

如果这是一场不同的战争，我们会在地面安排观察员。

If this was a different kind of war, we would have had a spotter on the ground.

他们是最终的把关者，那个人会说：等等。

They are that ultimate check, and that person would have said, wait.

这里有很多学生。

There are schoolchildren here.

这里还有游乐场。

There are playgrounds here.

这不是正确的目标。

This is not the right target.

当你在数百英里之外发射战斧导弹，从地球另一端的佛罗里达州坦帕市下达命令时，你与战场是脱节的，这确实为这类错误创造了机会。

And when you are at a remove hundreds of miles away firing Tomahawk missiles, making orders from half a world away in Tampa, Florida, like, you are at a remove from the battlefield, and that does create an opportunity for these kind of errors.

为了结束我们今天的对话，朱利安，要说出这场战争最终会被如何定义确实非常困难，而我们现在才刚刚进入这场战争一周半。

Just to end our conversation here, Julian, it is very hard to say what will ultimately define any war, and we are now a week and a half into this one.

很多事情都可能发生。

A lot could happen.

但如此重大的错误，导致这么多无辜儿童丧生，似乎无论各方如何看待，都会被铭记为这场战争的标志性时刻。

But it feels like a mistake of this magnitude with the death of so many innocent children feels like it will be remembered on all sides as a signature moment of this war.

你觉得这个错误、这场悲剧、这场战争初期在小学里杀害这么多儿童的事件，将来会被如何铭记？

How do you think that this mistake, this tragedy, this killing of all of these children at this elementary school in the early hours of this war is gonna be remembered.

当你思考这场战争时，你知道无论这场战争实现了哪些政策目标——无论是最高领导人的死亡、伊朗政权的削弱，还是其核计划可能被消除——无论未来如何发展，这场战争都将因这个错误而被铭记和定义。

When you think about this war, you know that no matter what policy goals are achieved in this war, the death of the supreme leader, the weakening of the Iranian regime, or the elimination potentially of its nuclear program, whatever is to come, this war is still going to be remembered, defined by this mistake as well.

这是一个太大的失误。

It's too big an error.

这是一场太大的悲剧。

It's too big a tragedy.

如果我们回望其他美国参与的战争，确实会记得那些出错的时刻。

And if we think back on other American wars, we do think of the things that go wrong.

对吧？

Right?

如果我们回顾越南战争，会想到美莱村大屠杀。

If we go back to Vietnam, we think of the My Lai massacre.

我们会想到使用凝固汽油弹导致儿童死亡的事件。

We think of the use of napalm that killed children.

如果我们回顾伊拉克战争，会想到阿布格莱布监狱和那里的囚犯虐待事件。

If we go to the Iraq war, we think of Abu Ghraib and the abuse of prisoners there.

我们会想到那个可怕的军事错误及其带来的后果。

We think of that terrible military mistake and the consequences it had.

嗯。

Mhmm.

无论伊朗战争接下来如何发展，对学校儿童的屠杀、美军误击学校事件都将影响我们对这场战争的看法。

And no matter what is to come in this war in Iran, the killing of the schoolchildren, the mistaken targeting of a school by the US military is going to color how we look at it.

好了，朱利安，感谢你抽出时间。

Well, Julian, I appreciate your time.