特朗普2.0：总统的负担能力问题

我是戴恩·布鲁格勒。

I'm Dane Brugler.

我为《The Athletic》报道NFL选秀。

I cover the NFL draft for The Athletic.

我们的选秀指南因为包含了海量信息而获得了‘野兽’这个名字。

Our draft guide picked up the name The Beast because of the crazy amount of information that's included.

我正在研究数千名球员，撰写数百份球探报告。

I'm looking at thousands of players putting together hundreds of scouting reports.

我从去年的选秀开始就一直在跟进今年的选秀。

I've been covering this year's draft since last year's draft.

‘野兽’里面有很多内容是你在其他地方根本找不到的。

There is a lot in the beast that you simply can't find anywhere else.

这是《The Athletic》和《纽约时报》提供的那种深入而独特的新闻报道。

This is the kind of in-depth unique journalism you get from The Athletic and The New York Times.

你可以在 nytimes.com/subscribe 订阅。

You can subscribe at nytimes.com slash subscribe.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·基托埃夫。

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

2024年投票时，对你来说最重要的议题是什么？

What was your most important issue when you voted in 2024?

大概是经济问题。

Probably the economy.

嗯，首先是经济问题。

Well, the economy, first and foremost.

我完全靠社会保障生活。

I live solely on Social Security.

所以经济对我来说极其重要。

So the economy, it was extremely important to me.

我觉得我的钱没发挥出应有的价值。

I didn't really think my dollar was going as far as it could.

唐纳德·特朗普在2024年当选，承诺解决经济问题，这是广大选民最关心的首要议题。

Donald Trump was elected in 2024 on the promise that he would fix the economy, the number one issue for a broad coalition of voters.

如今，特朗普担任总统刚满一年，我们的经济蓬勃发展，收入增加，投资激增，通胀已被遏制。

Today, just after one year of president Trump, our economy is booming, incomes are rising, investment is soaring, inflation has been defeated.

现在，总统正走向全国各地，为他的经济政策辩护。

Now, as the president goes out into the country to defend his economic agenda.

汽油价格仍然没有回到他第一个任期时的水平。

Cost of gas still isn't where it was when he was in his first term.

住房可负担性根本不存在。

Housing affordability, that is nonexistent.

我还没组建家庭，主要因为生活成本太高。

Haven't started a family yet primarily because of the cost of living.

我原本期望物价能下降，不用支付如此高昂的利率，但事实并非如此，对吧？

My expectation was for prices to go down and not have to pay outrageous interest rates, but that's not what happened, is it?

《纽约时报》的一项新民调显示，可能帮助特朗普赢得选举的经济问题，如今却正在让选民离他而去。

A new poll from the New York Times reveals that the issue that may have won the election for president Trump may now be driving voters away.

他的竞选承诺是经济会变得好得多。

His campaign promises were that the economy was going to be so much better.

自从他重返办公室以来，我没看到多少改善。

I don't see a lot of improvement since he has been back in office.

我原本相信他会来帮助我们，但如今才过去一年，我觉得被欺骗了。

I felt confident that he was gonna come and help us, but now that we're just one year into it, I feel bamboozled.

我觉得自己投票给他真是愚蠢。

I feel like I was stupid to vote for him.

我本该更明智一些的。

I should have known better.

我原本指望这家伙是个为民做主的人。

I I expected this guy to be a populace.

我觉得他和别的总统没什么不同。

I feel like he's not different from any of the other presidents.

今天，在系列报道中第二集评估特朗普总统第一年任期时，我的同事内特·科恩解释了这项民调揭示的内容：选民对特朗普、他对经济的管理以及他们实现梦想生活的机会有多怀疑。

Today, in the second in a series of episodes evaluating the first year of Trump's presidency, my colleague Nate Cohn explains what the poll tells us about how skeptical voters are of Trump, his handling of the economy, and their own chances of living the lives they dreamed of.

今天是1月30日，星期五。

It's Friday, January 30.

内特，我们找你是因为现在正是我们退一步、评估特朗普总统就职一年来在标志性议题上的表现的时刻。

Nate, we are coming to you because right now we're at this moment where we wanna step back and try to evaluate how President Trump has fared on his signature issues about a year into his presidency.

而你，幸运的是，作为《纽约时报》的首席政治分析师，刚刚发布了你正在进行的这项大型民意调查的最新结果。

And you, lucky for us, have just put out the latest results from this set of major polls that you're doing as our chief political analyst here at The Times.

这项民意调查深入分析了特朗普竞选时的核心议题——经济。

And that poll, it really drills down on Trump's performance election, which was the economy.

但为了理解特朗普目前在选民中的处境，我想请你提醒我们，在选举前和选举刚结束时选民们的态度是怎样的，这样我们才能明白当时人们对此年的期望，他们究竟希望什么。

But just to understand where Trump is at right now with voters, I wanna ask you to remind us of where voters were in the run up to the election and right after it as a way of understanding what people's hopes were for this year, you know, what they wanted.

给我解释一下。

Explain that to me.

唐纳德·特朗普上任时在美国民众中拥有相对广泛的支持。

Donald Trump entered office with relatively broad support among the American people.

他赢得了普选票，尽管优势微弱，但他确实赢得了普选票。

He won the popular vote, albeit narrowly, but he won the popular vote nonetheless.

选民们对特朗普能将经济恢复到疫情前的常态持乐观或至少是充满希望的态度。

And voters were optimistic or at least hopeful that he would return the economy back to something like the pre pandemic normal.

就是他第一个任期内的经济状况。

The economy we had when he was president the first time around.

是的。

Right.

他上任时的批准率在五成左右。

His approval rating in as he entered office was in the fifties.

对他来说，这是非常高的支持率。

These are really strong numbers for him.

通常情况下，唐纳德·特朗普的支持率只有四成出头，甚至更低。

Usually, Donald Trump had approval ratings in the low forties or even the thirties.

因此，唐纳德·特朗普上任时拥有更广泛的支持基础，选民们对特朗普第二个任期的前景抱有更大的期待。

So as Donald Trump entered office, he entered with a much broader coalition, with an electorate that was much more hopeful about what a second term for president Trump might look like.

他们认为他可能能够控制边境并降低犯罪率。

They thought he might get the border under control and reduce crime.

而且，他以一种此前未曾有过的方式，成为了一种文化现象。

And he also entered as a kind of cultural phenomenon in a way that he hadn't previously.

你可能还记得，一年前人们曾谈论过文化中出现了一种保守派的氛围转变。

You might remember there was talk of a conservative vibe shift in the culture a year ago.

是的。

Right.

而这种氛围转变的讨论，很大程度上源于你提到的这个更广泛的联盟。

And a lot of this talk of a vibe shift came down to who was in this broader coalition that you mentioned.

年轻选民、更多非白人选民，以及一些原本疏离、投票不频繁的选民。

Younger voters, more non white voters, somewhat disengaged, infrequent voters.

他们都转向了特朗普。

They all moved towards Trump.

是的。

Yeah.

特朗普在2024年在年轻、非白人、教育程度较低、收入较低的选民中取得了巨大进展，这些选民传统上支持民主党，而民主党常常将他们视为理所当然。

Trump made enormous gains in 2024 among young, non white, less educated, lower income voters, voters who traditionally had voted for Democrats and who Democrats had often taken for granted.

而问题一直在于，这种转变能持续多久？

And the question, right, was always how durable is that shift?

这种政治格局的变化是永久性的，还只是昙花一现？

Was this change in the political landscape permanent, or was it just a flash in the pan?

这仅仅是对拜登的反应吗？

Was it just a reaction to Biden?

听起来我们现在对此已经有了一些信息。

And it sounds like we have some information about that now.

没错。

That's right.

我们刚刚完成了唐纳德·特朗普就任一年后的全国民调，结果与一年前的民调，或者2024年大选前的民调大不相同。

We've just finished national poll one year into Donald Trump's term, and it does not look like the polls did a year ago or like the polls did in the run up to his victory in 2024.

他的支持率现在是40%。

His approval rating's at 40%.

这比他当选前48%的好感度大幅下降，更不用说他刚上任时的多数支持率了。

That's down considerably from the 48% favorability rating he had heading into the election, let alone the majority support that he had when he entered office.

更重要的是，我们在2024年选举中看到的那些重大人口结构变化，如今大多已逆转。

And importantly, those big demographic shifts that we saw in the twenty twenty four election, they have mostly reversed.

年轻、非白人、低收入、参与度较低的选民，从曾经是他相对的优势群体，再次变得对他极为不利。

Young, non white, lower income, less engaged voters, they have gone from being his relative strong points to, again, looking much weaker for him.

事实上，从几乎所有方面来看，这都像是在特朗普第一任期内进行的一次民调。

In fact, in almost every respect, it looks like a poll that you could have done during Trump's first term.

正如你所指出的，这在一定程度上回答了关于2024年选举发生了什么的长期疑问。

Now as you pointed out, this does sort of answer this long standing question about what happened in the twenty twenty four election.

这是一次永久性的转变，还只是一次对乔·拜登的反应？

Was this a permanent shift, or was this just a reaction to Joe Biden?

表面上看，这更像是对乔·拜登的反应，或者至少绝对不是一次永久性的转变。

On its face, it looks a little bit more like a reaction to Joe Biden, or at the very least, it's certainly not a permanent shift.

但我认为，这并不意味着2024年竞选期间发生的事情是虚假的。

I do think, though, that that doesn't mean that what happened during the twenty twenty four campaign wasn't real.

这可能意味着，唐纳德·特朗普错失了一个机会：他当初确实获得了以往不支持共和党的群体的真正支持，但他上任后未能巩固这些支持。

What it may mean is that Donald Trump squandered an opportunity that he did enter with real support from groups that haven't traditionally voted for Republicans, but he has not succeeded in consolidating that support in office.

事实上，他让选民想起了当初在2016年或2020年不支持他的那些原因。

And in fact, he's reminded voters of the very reasons why they didn't support him initially in 2016 or in 2020.

很有趣。

Fascinating.

你的意思是，他失去了那些原本被他争取过来的人的支持。

You're saying, basically, he lost ground with the people that he'd won over.

我们了解背后的原因吗？

What do we know about why?

在某种程度上，我们很清楚原因，那就是在我们所问的几乎所有问题上，选民都对他的处理方式不满意。

We know a lot about why in one respect, which is that on almost every question we ask about, voters disapprove of his handling of the issues.

他们对他处理经济的方式不满意。

So they disapprove of his handling of the economy.

他们对他处理移民问题的方式不满意。

They disapprove of his handling of immigration.

他们对他处理联邦政府支出的方式不满意。

They disapprove of his handling of the federal government spending.

他们不赞成这项宏伟的法案。

They disapprove of the big beautiful bill.

他们不赞成他在以色列、乌克兰和委内瑞拉问题上的外交政策。

They disapprove of his foreign policy on Israel and Ukraine and Venezuela.

解释并不缺乏。

There's no shortage of explanations.

在这项民调中，特朗普的亮点寥寥无几。

There are only a very small number of bright spots for Trump in this poll.

我认为，他在边境管理方面的表现确实是这里唯一明确的强项。

I would say his handling of the border is really the only unequivocal strong point here.

我认为，这项民调表明，在所有这些因素中，经济仍然是特朗普失去支持的最重要原因。

I do think that the poll suggests that of all of those things, that the economy is still the single most important reason Mhmm.

为什么唐纳德·特朗普失去了格兰特的支持。

Why Donald Trump has lost Grant.

部分原因在于，他在经济方面的支持率普遍很低。

That's partly because many of his worst numbers are on the economy.

而这部分原因在于，当你深入研究那些表示不再支持他的选民的态度时。

And it's partly because when you really dig into the attitudes of the individual voters who say that they no longer support him.

这些选民特别倾向于认为，经济和可负担性是国家面临的最大问题。

Those voters are really unusually likely to say that the economy and affordability is the biggest problem facing the country.

那么，可以说这些转变的选民在2024年因为经济问题投了特朗普，而现在又因为经济问题远离他吗？

So is it fair to say that those switchers, they went to Trump in 2024 because of the economy, and now you see them moving away from him, turning away from Trump because of the economy?

我认为是这样的。

I think that's right.

不过，再次强调，唐纳德·特朗普在我们所问的几乎所有议题上都不受欢迎。

Now, again, Donald Trump is unpopular on almost every issue we asked about.

如果经济状况良好，他们可能仍会因他对移民与海关执法局的处理方式而对他不满。

It's possible that if the economy was fine, they'd still be upset at him over his handling of ICE, for instance.

但我们知道的是，这些选民认为经济是国家面临的最大问题。

What we know, though, is that these voters say that the economy is the biggest problem facing the country.

44%的特朗普支持者叛逃者将经济问题列为主要原因，而其他选民中这一比例为24%。

44% of the Trump defectors cite economic issues compared with 24% of other voters.

我们知道，尽管这曾经是他最大的优势之一，但这些选民对他在经济问题上的表现给予了非常负面的评价。

And we know that they give him really negative marks on his handling of the economy, even though that used to be one of his greatest strengths.

因此，在我看来，经济是解释这些选民在我们的民调中转而反对唐纳德·特朗普的最直接、最核心的原因，尽管无疑还存在其他因素。

So to me, the economy looks like the most straightforward central explanation for why these voters swing back against Donald Trump in our poll, even though there are undoubtedly other factors as well.

那么，这些选民对经济管理的具体不满是什么？

And what about the handling of the economy are these voters so frustrated with?

也就是说，他们到底对哪里感到不满？

Like, what's their specific beef?

顺便问一下，你想在可负担性这个问题上深究到什么程度？

How far down the affordability rabbit hole do you wanna go here, by the way?

那就彻底深挖吧。

Let's go all the way.

好吧，我们先站在这个洞的外面看一下。

Well, standing on the outside of the hole for a second.

我的意思是，大多数人认为，他根本没能让国家变得更可负担。

I mean, I think that most people say that he just hasn't made the country more affordable.

大多数人表示，他的政策让生活变得更加难以负担。

A majority say that his policies have made life less affordable.

所以他当选的目的是让生活变得更加实惠。

So he was elected to make things more affordable.

他们觉得生活反而更贵了。

They think it's less affordable.

关税可能是其中一部分原因。

The tariffs are probably part of that.

持续的长期通胀，虽然他对此并不负责，但也可能是原因之一。

Continuing long term inflation that he's not responsible for is probably part of that.

例如，医疗补助削减是特朗普政策似乎并未为普通人减轻负担的另一个例子。

Medicaid cuts, for instance, is another example of a way in which Trump's policies don't seem like they're making things easier for ordinary people.

从根本上说，他们只是觉得他并没有专注于解决他们选举他来应对的问题。

Fundamentally, they just don't think he's focused on dealing with the problem that they elected him to address.

大多数选民表示，他并没有关注他们最关心的议题。

A majority of voters say that he's not focused on the issues that they care about most.

也许这是在提及对特朗普长时间在国外、建造赌场、脱离民众的批评。

Maybe a reference to the kind of complaint or the criticism of Trump for spending so much time abroad, you know, building the ballroom, being out of touch.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

但所有这些加起来，导致了他在应对生活成本问题上的支持率非常低。

And what it all adds up to though is a very low approval rating on his handling of the cost of living.

只有34%的选民对他处理生活成本问题表示认可。

Only 34% of voters approve of his handling of cost of living.

64%的人不认可。

64% disapprove.

这是他在民调中第二差的结果，仅好于 Epstein 文件事件。

That's his second worst result in the poll, trailing only the Epstein files.

哇。

Wow.

我想具体分析一下我们在这里讨论的内容，以及人们说他们担心生活成本时究竟指的是什么。

I wanna break down exactly what we're talking about here and what people mean when they say they're worried about affordability.

这份民调关于这一点告诉我们什么，内特？

What does the poll tell us about that, Nate?

我们询问了人们最担心负担不起什么。

We asked people what they worried most about affording.

大多数人列举了一些中产阶级必需的大额开支，比如医疗、住房、教育、子女抚养，这些如果负担不起，你就不再是中产阶级了。

And a majority of people listed, call it a big ticket middle class essential, health care, housing, education, children, the sort of things that if you can't afford them, you're no longer living a middle class life.

他们较少提到日常或月度开销，比如食品、水电、交通。

They were less likely to mention call them regular or monthly expenses, food, utilities, transportation.

这并不是说他们不关心这些问题，或者对鸡蛋价格不感到愤怒，但只有大约五分之一的人表示，这些才是他们最担心负担不起的。

That's not to say that they aren't concerned about those things too or that they aren't really upset about the price of eggs, but only about a fifth of people said that that's what they worried most about affording.

我们还问了人们，某些东西是否对他们来说根本负担不起。

We also asked people just whether something was unaffordable to them or not.

同样，那些月度开销，比如水电、汽油、食品，只有大约五分之一的人表示他们负担不起这些物品。

And once again, those sort of monthly expenses, utilities, gas, food, only about a fifth of people said that they couldn't afford those items.

当然，值得注意的是，对于低收入人群来说，情况则大不相同。

Now it's worth noting, of course, that for lower income people, the story's pretty different.

是的

Mhmm.

低收入人群靠工资度日，他们夜不能寐，担心的是这些常规的月度开支。

Lower income people living paycheck to paycheck, they are being kept up at night over those regular monthly expenses.

但当谈到整个选民群体或中产阶级，更不用说上层中产阶级时，住房与教育这类大额支出往往占据主导地位。

But when talking about the electorate overall or middle class, let alone upper middle class people, those big ticket items like housing and education tend to prevail.

你所描述的，是一种更深层的忧虑。

What you're describing is this kind of deeper worry.

人们显然不喜欢那些每天必须购买的东西如此昂贵，导致他们能买得更少。

People obviously don't like that things that they have to buy on a daily basis are so expensive that they can buy less.

但真正萦绕在人们心头的，听起来尤其是中产阶级的心头大事，是这些关乎长期人生前景的担忧。

But the thing really on people's minds, it sounds like, especially middle class people's minds, are these long term kind of life prospect level concerns.

不过，纳特，我确实觉得，任何总统都不可能在一年内解决这些担忧。

It does strike me though, Nate, that there was just no way that any president was gonna solve those concerns in a single year.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得这是对的。

I think that's right.

我确实认为选民们在怀疑是否真的取得了任何进展。

I do think that there is a question about whether voters think any progress is being made.

我的意思是，选民们认为唐纳德·特朗普的政策让生活变得更加昂贵。

I mean, voters think that Donald Trump's policies have made things less affordable.

我可以想象，如果特朗普在这些问题上取得了一些进展，或者被认为专注于这些问题，即使普通28岁的人离拥有像1970年代人们那样的一套房子还很遥远，他的政治地位也会好得多。

I can imagine that if Trump had made some progress on these issues or was seen as focused on these issues, that his political standing would be much better even if there was still a very long way to go before the ordinary 28 year old could buy a house like we imagine someone in 1970 could have.

但我认为你说得对，我们所讨论的这些问题——教育、医疗、住房、育儿等等——都是长期存在的问题。

But I think you're right that the problems that we're talking about, education, health care, housing, child care, and so on, these are long standing problems.

这些问题的成本即使在低通胀时期也在持续上升。

They're problems where costs have been going up even during periods of low inflation.

即使特朗普专注于这些问题，也很难在他的任期内得到解决。

And it's unlikely that they'll be addressed in Donald Trump's presidency even if he was focused on them.

这基本上告诉我们，人们觉得他在这段短时间内并没有取得足够进展，或者没有足够努力，因此没能对他们产生实质性影响。

What this tells us basically is that people don't see him making enough progress or trying hard enough to have made a difference for them, even in this short period of time.

是的

Yeah.

我还要指出，他们认为他让这些问题变得更糟了。

And I would also point out, they think he's made these problems worse.

所以，他不仅没有足够努力去解决这些问题，他们还认为他让生活成本更高了。

So not only is he not doing enough to solve them, but they think he's making things more expensive too.

这加起来是一件非常重大的事情。

And that adds up to something really big.

65%的人表示，中产阶级的生活对大多数人来说已经遥不可及。

65% of people said that a middle class life was out of reach for most people.

超过四分之三的人表示，实现中产阶级生活比一代人之前更困难了。

And more than three quarters say it's gotten harder to achieve that middle class life than a generation ago.

因此，让这个问题变得更糟是一件非常严重的事情。

So making this problem worse is a really big deal.

这意味着让普通人对自身生活以及大多数美国人生活的期望变得遥不可及。

It means putting what people ordinarily expect out of their life and out of the life of most Americans out of reach for them.

我们回来后，将听取我们的制作人奥利维亚·卡普和斯特拉·谭通过电话采访的选民，了解他们想要过怎样的生活以及离实现这些目标还有多远。

When we come back, we'll hear from voters that our producers Olivia Knapp and Stella Tan spoke to on the phone about the kind of lives they wanna live and how far they are from achieving them.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

我是索拉娜·派恩。

I'm Solana Pine.

我是《纽约时报》视频部门的负责人。

I'm the director of video at The New York Times.

多年来，我的团队制作了众多视频，带您更贴近重大新闻时刻。

For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments.

这些由《纽约时报》记者制作的视频，具备专业素养和培训背景，能帮助您理解正在发生的事情。

Videos by Times journalists that have the expertise and training to help you understand what's going on.

您可能在社交媒体上或浏览《纽约时报》时见过这些视频。

You might have seen these on social media or browsing The New York Times.

现在，我们把这些视频放在《纽约时报》应用的“观看”标签页中提供给您。

Now we're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in The New York Times app.

这是一个专门的视频频道，您可以完全信任其中的内容。

It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing.

所有这些视频都免费向所有人开放。

All the videos there are free for anyone to watch.

您不需要成为订阅用户。

You don't have to be a subscriber.

请从您喜欢的应用商店下载《纽约时报》应用，立即开始观看。

Download The New York Times app from your favorite app store to start watching.

如果您更喜欢听音频，我们也有一个“收听”标签页。

And if you're more of an audio person, there's a listen tab too.

你好。

Hello.

我是凯尔西。

This is Kelsey.

嗨，凯尔西。

Hi, Kelsey.

我是奥利维亚，来自《纽约时报》。

This is Olivia calling from The New York Times.

我是陈思雅。

This is Stella Tan.

我打电话是因为您最近参与了《纽约时报》的一项民意调查。

I'm calling because you recently participated in a New York Times poll.

您能抽出几分钟聊一聊吗？

Would you have a few minutes to chat?

当然可以。

Sure.

好的。

Okay.

我叫马库斯·维拉。

My name is Marcus Villa.

我38岁。

I'm 38 years old.

尼克·锡拉丘兹。

Nick Syracuse.

24岁。

24 years old.

我是一名在校学生，31岁。

I am a current student, and I'm 31.

公司。

Company.

我是一名护理人员。

I'm a caregiver.

我是一名再保险经纪人。

I'm a reinsurance broker.

我曾在一家漫画书店工作。

I worked at a comic book retail shop.

密歇根州排名第一的起亚汽车经销商的高级销售顾问。

Senior sales consultant at the number one Kia dealership in the state of Michigan.

你如何描述你目前的财务状况？

And how would you describe your financial situation right now?

勉强维持生计。

Surviving.

对吧？

Right?

目前是月光族。

Paycheck to paycheck at the moment.

我们赚到了我这辈子从未想过能赚到的钱，但还是觉得不够。

We've made the most money I ever thought I'd ever make, and it just doesn't seem like it's enough.

举步维艰。

Drowning.

我赚了很多钱，却几乎负担不起生存的开销。

I can barely afford to survive, and I'm making a lot of money.

我可以问一下你赚多少钱吗？

Can I ask how much you're making?

我一年赚84,000美元。

I make 84,000 a year.

去年我赚了90,000美元。

Last year, I made 90,000.

你会笑的。

You're gonna laugh.

去年我赚了刚超过20,000美元。

I made just over 20,000 this last year.

目前，经济或生活成本中哪个方面让你最焦虑？

Is there an aspect of the economy or the cost of living that makes you most anxious right now?

我的同龄人根本买不起房子，这确实是实话。

I mean, honestly, the inability of people in my generation to afford housing.

住房、食品和医疗保健，显然这三者是最重要的。

Housing, food, and health care, obviously, those are the three big ones.

健康保险、汽车保险、房租。

Health insurance, car insurance, rent.

每发一次工资，只够付两笔账单。

Every paycheck is two bills only.

确实对生孩子感到焦虑。

Definitely anxious about having children.

以你的收入，你觉得你能负担得起想要的生活吗？

And with your income, do you feel like you're able to afford the life you want?

不能。

No.

完全做不到。

Not by any means.

我觉得我最终能做到，但现在的难度和成本确实比以前高多了。

I feel like I can eventually, but it's definitely harder and and more expensive than it once was.

现在好像非得赚个十几万美元，才有机会存下钱，过上像样的生活。

Seems like almost you you gotta make a couple $100,000 now to have any chance of saving any money and living a decent lifestyle.

我的意思是，我们没有妻子的收入。

I mean, we don't have wife's income.

我们本应该能拥有一栋独栋住宅，开一辆不错的车，为退休存一点钱，但不幸的是，这些目标似乎离我们现在的状况还很遥远。

We should be able to own a a single family home, drive a decent vehicle, stick a little bit of money away for retirement, and that seems to, you know, kinda be far away from where we're at right now, unfortunately.

如果我不断得到晋升，收入也在提高，我应该觉得自己在取得成功。

If I'm receiving promotions and getting a better paycheck, I should be feeling like I'm succeeding.

我开的是一辆2001年的福特福克斯。

I drive a 2001 Ford Focus.

我不该开一辆2001年的车。

I shouldn't be driving a a car from 2001.

我记得二十世纪初的父母们下班后，回家看看新闻，吃顿晚饭，好好陪陪孩子。

I remember parents back in the early two thousands being able to get off work, go home, watch the news, have dinner, enjoy time with their kids.

我们现在已经无法享受这样的生活了。

We are no longer afforded that.

所以，内特，我们的制作团队在联系你所接触的一些选民时，听到的是他们对经济未来深深的恐惧与焦虑。

So Nate, what our producers heard when they called some of the voters that you pulled was just how deep their fears and anxieties were about their economic future.

我想问问你，既然你花了这么多时间分析这些数据，你觉得这群目前如此焦虑的美国人最让你印象深刻的是什么？

And I wanna ask you, since you've spent all this time parsing these numbers, what struck you about this group of Americans that are so on edge right now?

我认为最让我印象深刻的是代际之间存在巨大分歧。

I think the thing that struck me most about it was that there was a really deep generational divide.

年轻人对生活成本和实现中产阶级生活的能力的担忧，远比老年人更强烈。

Young people were just much more concerned about affordability and the ability to achieve a middle class life than older people.

在我们18至29岁的受访者中，只有24%的人认为自己能够负担得起他们认为理应拥有的生活，而65岁以上人群中有63%这样认为。

Only 24% of our 18 to 29 year old respondents said that they thought they could afford the life they thought they should be able to afford compared to 63% of people over age 65.

哇。

Wow.

这个差距很大。

That's a big difference.

确实差距很大。

It's a big difference.

只有27%的年轻人表示自己已经实现了中产阶级的生活方式，而三分之二的年长选民则这样认为。

Only 27% of young people said they had achieved a middle class lifestyle compared with two thirds of older voters.

这些差异确实非常大。

So those are really big differences.

我认为很容易解释为什么年轻人对这个问题更加焦虑。

And I think it's pretty easy to explain why young people are much more anxious about this.

他们还没有买到那种中产阶级的生活。

They haven't yet bought that middle class life.

他们还没有买房。

They don't own a home.

他们还没有养育孩子。

They haven't raised their kids.

他们还没有送孩子上大学，也没有退休。

They haven't sent them to college or retired.

相比之下，老年人已经买下了所有这些东西。

Older people, in contrast, bought all of those things.

对。

Right.

他们很多年前就已经买了房子。

They've purchased a home many years ago.

他们有医疗保险。

They have Medicare.

他们已经把孩子抚养成人。

They already raised their family.

而另一方面，现在有45%的选民表示，养育家庭的成本已经高到令人无法承受。

While on the other hand now, a majority of voters 45 say that the cost of having a family has gotten so high that it's become unaffordable.

你刚才有点提到这一点，但你所看到的是，人们正难以感受到自己能够实现原本预期的目标。

You sort of said this, but what you're seeing is that people are having a really hard time feeling like they can't achieve what they expected they would be able to achieve.

我想知道的是，这种感觉真的有现实依据吗？

And I guess what I'm wondering is, is that sense actually grounded in reality?

因为我的理解是，整体经济实际上还不错。

Because my understanding is that the overall economy is actually doing okay on the whole.

所以帮我理解一下这一点。

So help me understand that.

这是个非常好的问题，多年来人们一直在争论这个问题。

It's a it's a really good question, and it's one people have been debating about for years now.

我认为，退一步思考我们所讨论的经济数据到底是什么、它揭示了什么，是有帮助的。

I think that it's useful to step back and think about what the economic data we're talking about really is and what it says.

人们用来说明情况没那么糟的主要指标是实际中位收入。

The main measure that people are looking at to say that things aren't that bad is real median income.

也就是人们扣除通胀后的实际收入。

That's how much money people are making, adjust inflation.

嗯。

Mhmm.

通胀是通过一个叫做消费者价格指数的指标来衡量的，它代表一篮子商品。

And inflation is measured by something called the consumer price index, which is a basket of goods.

从食品到电子产品，再到托儿服务。

Everything from food to electronics to childcare.

它考察的是普通人的平均支出，以及这些支出随时间的变化情况。

And it looks at how much the average person spends and how much the cost of that average person spending changes over time.

根据这一指标，人们的工资一直跟得上商品成本的增长。

By that measure, people's wages have been keeping up with the growing costs of goods.

所以这就是为什么有人会说，情况可能并没有那么糟糕。

So that's where you get the argument that maybe things aren't actually that bad.

也许我们实际上比以往任何时候都更富裕，尽管感觉并非如此。

Maybe we're actually better off than ever before even it doesn't feel like it.

但我认为问题在于，这个说法未必适用于我们刚才讨论的那些商品。

I think the catch though is that that story doesn't necessarily hold up for the goods that we've been talking about.

住房、医疗、教育这些中产阶级必需品的价格。

The price of housing, health care, education, those middle class necessities.

在过去几十年里，这些商品的价格涨幅超过了工资增长。

The prices of those goods has increased more than wages in recent decades.

所以，如果你今天正打算购买这些商品，你确实会发现，相比四十年前或五十年前，买这些东西要困难得多。

So if you were the kind of person who is trying to buy those goods today, you really are finding it harder to buy those things than you would have forty or fifty years ago.

对于那些正努力过上中产阶级生活、却尚未实现的人——比如二十多岁、三十多岁的人——他们现在不得不直面这些庞大且不断上涨的开支。

For the people that we're talking about who are trying to get that middle class life, who haven't bought it yet, people in their late twenties, thirties, are now staring at having to buy those things, They are gonna try and tackle those big and growing costs head on.

对。

Right.

对于这样的人，我认为有一个非常有力的论点：他们的收入并没有跟上享受这种中产阶级生活所需的能力。

And for that person, I think that there's a really good argument that their incomes haven't necessarily kept up with the ability to buy into this middle class life.

你的意思是，当人们看到自己的收入和他们能负担得起的这些大额消费之间的差距时，他们的感受并没有错。

You're saying people aren't wrong when they look at their incomes and what they're able to afford in terms of these big purchases.

他们注意到这种差距是真实存在的，而且可能比过去几代人更大。

They notice a deficit there that's real and that is perhaps bigger than in past generations.

是的。

Yeah.

这里涉及许多不同的层面。

There are a lot of different layers here.

因为这些开支如此昂贵，而且又如此必要，所以很难做出妥协。

Because these things are so expensive and because they are so essential, they are very difficult to compromise on.

因此，家庭常常被迫处于一种境地：如果情况变得更糟，他们可能根本无法承担这些开销。

And so families are often being put in a position where if things get harder, they may just simply not be able to do it.

你可能根本买不起房子。

You simply may not be able to have a home.

你可能供不起孩子上大学。

You may not be able to send your kid to college.

所以这就是人们的感受。

So that's how it feels.

你知道，这意味着即使收入跟上了通货膨胀，也可能有更多人不得不妥协自己的人生目标，或者直面可能要妥协人生目标的现实。

You know, it means that even though incomes have kept up with inflation, it's probably the case that more people have had to compromise on their life goals or stare down the possibility of compromising on their life goals.

内特，鉴于这一切听起来如此沉重，我想转到这可能带来的政治影响上。

Nate, given how weighty all of this is sounding, I wanna turn to what the political implications of it may be.

许多人，尤其是年轻人，不再认为特朗普是经济的最佳管理者，这种转变是否为民主党带来了机会？

Does the reversal on Trump for many people as the best steward of the economy, especially among younger people, does that represent an opportunity for Democrats?

这对他们来说是一个亮点吗？

Is that a bright spot for them?

嗯，这确实是民主党的一个亮点。

Well, it's definitely a bright spot for Democrats.

这为他们创造了机会。

It creates an opening for them.

他们很可能在中期选举中表现良好，而历史上中期选举基本上是对执政党的正负投票。

They're gonna do well in all likelihood in the midterm elections, which historically are basically just an up or down referendum on the party in power.

人们对特朗普感到不满。

So people are upset at Trump.

民主党将在今年十一月表现良好。

The Democrats are gonna do well this November.

从更长远来看，比如2028年，民主党有机会利用这些问题，但值得注意的是，他们在可负担性问题上也缺乏公信力。

Looking farther down the line, say, to 2028, there's a new opportunity for Democrats to try and capitalize on these issues, but it's worth noting that they don't enter with much credibility on affordability either.

在我看来，他们并不像根据总统支持率所预期的那样，明显处于非常有利的位置。

It's not obvious to me that they are teed up to fair exceptionally well or as well as you might guess given the president's approval rating.

他们还有很长的路要走。

They have their work cut out for them.

所以，选民现在对特朗普在经济问题上的不满，并不意味着他们正在转向民主党。

So just because voters are turning on Trump right now on the economy, it doesn't mean they're turning toward Democrats.

你在民调中看到这一点了吗？

Is that something you see in the poll?

比如，我们能否确定他们并不信任民主党在这件事上的表现？

Like, do we know that for sure that they don't trust Democrats on this?

所以我们没有在民调中问过这个问题。

So we didn't ask them in the poll.

但我认为值得把民调中的两个不同发现放在一起对比。

But I think it's worth juxtaposing two different findings that the poll had.

一个是，我们询问人们在中期选举中会投票给民主党还是共和党，结果在注册选民中民主党领先五个百分点。

One was that we asked people whether they'll vote for Democrats or Republicans in the midterm election, and Democrats led by five among registered voters.

这比2024年选举前的情况好得多，当时共和党，正如你所知，不仅在总统大选中赢得了普选票，也在众议院选举中赢得了普选票。

It's quite a bit better than ahead of the twenty twenty four election when the Republicans, as you know, won the popular vote not only for the presidency, but also for the house of representatives.

另一方面，我们询问人们是否认为自己是民主党人或共和党人。

On the other hand, we ask people whether they see themselves as Democrats or Republicans.

但仍然有更多人自认为是共和党人，而不是民主党人。

And more people still consider themselves Republicans than Democrats.

所以人们对特朗普感到不满。

So people are dissatisfied with Trump.

如果民主党能够提出一个让他们信服并支持自己的主张，他们现在可能愿意转向民主党。

They may now be open to the Democrats should the Democrats be able to put forward a message that convinces them to support them.

但请注意，他们尚未像选民在拜登时代转向共和党那样明显地转向民主党，这在很大程度上是因为特朗普在这些问题上早已拥有公信力。

But they haven't yet turned toward the Democrats in the same way, by the way, that voters did turn towards the Republicans during the Biden era in no small part because Trump had credibility on these issues already.

还值得注意的是，在民意调查中，仍有更多人将我们最大的经济问题归咎于乔·拜登，而不是唐纳德·特朗普。

It's also worth noting that in the poll, more people blame Joe Biden for our biggest economic problems still than Donald Trump.

这可能看起来很反直觉，但当我们询问人们对经济状况的看法时，认为经济状况良好的人比自疫情以来任何其他时候都多。

And this may be really counterintuitive, but when we ask people how well the economy is doing, more people say the economy is doing well than at any other point in our polling since the pandemic.

哇。

Wow.

因此，即使人们对特朗普处理经济的方式不认同，人们似乎在过去一年乃至过去几年中，对经济的感受正逐渐好转。

So even as they disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy, people do seem to gradually be feeling better about the economy over the last year and over the last few years.

现在可能主要是共和党人开始认可特朗普的经济政策，但自选举以来，认为经济状况良好或极佳的选民比例上升了7个百分点，而自2022年通胀达到峰值以来，这一增幅要大得多。

Now it may mostly be Republicans coming around the Trump economy, but the proportion of voters who say the economy is good or excellent has gone up seven points since the election, and it's gone up a lot more than that since, say, 2022 when inflation was peaking.

人们普遍认为经济正在逐渐好转，这是一个持续的长期趋势。

There's a steady long term trend where people think the economy is doing a little better.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

纳特，你如何解释这一点，和你之前告诉我们的内容？

How do you square that, Nate, with what you've told us?

我来试着解释一下，但我不确定自己能否完全说清楚。

'm gonna take a shot at it, and I'm not sure I've I will fully be able to do that.

好的。

Okay.

但我认为，选民们过去认为乔·拜登在经济上彻底失败了。

But I think the story is voters thought Joe Biden was a complete catastrophe on the economy.

由于这一点，人们对他的总统任期和经济表现的看法在2022年跌至最低点。

Views of his presidency and the economy really bottomed out in 2022 as a result of that.

选民至今回望过去，仍认为当时发生的事是如今经济状况糟糕的最主要原因，那就是乔·拜登执政期间发生的一切。

Voters still look back today and say what happened then, that's the biggest reason why things are bad now is the stuff that happened when Joe Biden was president.

随着我们越来越远离2021年和2022年，人们正逐渐重新评估经济状况，认为它正随着后疫情动荡的消退而改善。

And as we get further and further from 2021 and 2022, people are gradually reevaluating the state of the economy upward as we move away from that post pandemic upheaval.

这就像人们在说：我们曾深陷一个极其糟糕的泥潭。

It's like people are saying, we were in this incredibly deep hole.

我们已经勉强爬出了一点点，但前方依然路途遥远，我对目前的状况并不满意。

We've dug out of that hole a little bit, but we still have a really long way to go, and I'm not satisfied with where we are.

我们依然还有很长的路要走，而且他们甚至不认为特朗普在这方面能帮上忙。

Still have a long way to go, and they don't even think Trump is helping here.

总的来说，双方都没有向选民提出令人信服的方案，来有效应对眼下正沉重压在人们身上的巨大经济压力。

So on the whole, neither side is making a compelling case to voters that they're gonna successfully tackle these huge forces that are just bearing down on people right now economically.

不过我得问一句，特朗普似乎已经意识到，这已成为他和政党的一大难题。

I have to ask though, Trump does seem to be recognizing that this has become a big problem for him and the party.

他一直在提出一些激进的解决方案，以应对生活成本问题。

He's been proposing these radical solutions to the affordability problems.

比如限制信用卡利率、禁止私募股权收购独栋住宅、与制药公司达成协议以降低药品价格。

Things like capping credit card interest rates, banning private equity from buying single family homes, announcing deals with pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices.

我认为很多人会质疑他是否真能实现这些措施。

I think there are a lot of questions about whether he's actually gonna be able to do these things.

但你认为总统这样做，是否是一种试图挽回他在这一问题上失去的支持的有益推动？

But do you view that as a potentially helpful push by the president to try to claw back what he's lost on this issue?

我认为简短的回答是否定的。

I think the short answer is no.

我认为，唐纳德·特朗普承认这个问题并看似提出解决方案，比什么都不做或否认问题要好。

I think that it is better for Donald Trump to acknowledge the issue and to seem to be proposing solutions than to do nothing or to deny the problem.

因此，从这个角度看，他谈论这些问题，总比上个月称可负担性是骗局要好。

So in that sense, it's probably better for him to be talking about these things than to call affordability a hoax as he did last month.

然而，我通常对这种花哨的政策持高度怀疑态度。

However, I am generally pretty skeptical of gimmicky policies.

这让我想起拜登和哈里斯当初处理这个问题的方式。

It reminds me actually a little bit about how Biden Harris handled this.