特朗普的孤独战争

《纽约时报》应用里有很多你可能没见过的内容。

The New York Times app has all this stuff that you may not have seen.

就是

The way

标签页在顶部，包含了所有不同的板块。

the tabs are at the top with all of the different sections.

我可以立即跳转到符合我心情的内容。

I can immediately navigate to something that matches what I'm feeling.

我总是订购游戏。

I order games always.

做小游戏。

Doing the mini.

做字谜游戏。

Doing the Wordle.

我喜欢它让我接触到这么多内容。

I loved how much content it exposed me to.

我从未想过会向新闻应用寻求这些内容。

Things that I never would have thought to turn to a news app for.

这个应用必不可少。

This app is essential.

《纽约时报》应用。

The New York Times app.

所有时间，全部汇集在一起。

All of the times, all in one place.

立即前往 nytimes.com/app 下载。

Download it now at nytimes.com/app.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·基托夫。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

随着伊朗战争进入第六周，尽管特朗普总统不断暗示战争即将结束，但战斗却丝毫没有减弱的迹象。

As the war in Iran enters its sixth week, even as president Trump keeps signaling that it's about to end, the fighting shows no signs of letting up.

伊朗继续向其海湾邻国发射导弹。

Iran continues to fire missiles at its Gulf neighbors.

霍尔木兹海峡仍被封锁。

The Strait Of Hormuz is still blocked.

就在本周末，伊朗击落了一架美国战斗机后，美军不得不展开大规模行动，营救一名坠机飞行员。

And just this weekend, after Iran shot down a US fighter jet, the US military had to conduct a massive operation to rescue a downed airman.

与此同时，美国在欧洲最亲密的盟友仍拒绝特朗普寻求援助的要求。

All the while, America's closest allies in Europe continue to refuse Trump's demands for help.

今天，我的同事马克·兰德勒解释了为什么欧洲国家不愿参与这场战争，以及它们为何仍被拖入其中。

Today, my colleague Mark Landler explains why European countries want no part in this war and how they're getting dragged in anyway.

今天是4月6日，星期一。

It's Monday, April 6.

马克，这是近期历史上美国首次在没有欧洲盟友参与的情况下发动战争，显然特朗普对此非常愤怒，甚至再次强烈暗示他打算退出北约，让美国脱离北约。

Mark, for the first time in recent history, The US has gone to war without any of our European allies joining us, and it seems clear that president Trump is very mad at them because of this, to the point where Trump is now strongly suggesting again that he's gonna leave NATO, that The US is gonna pull out of NATO.

显然，我们以前也见过这些威胁，跨大西洋关系的紧张局势已经持续了相当长一段时间。

Obviously, we've seen these threats before, and we've seen the transatlantic relationship stress for quite some time now.

所以给我讲讲这个时刻的背景。

So put this moment into context for me.

从一到十的尺度上，目前美国与盟友之间的紧张程度有多严重？

On a scale of one to 10, how bad is the tension between The US and our allies right now?

嗯，娜塔莉，我可能会说在十分制里是八到九分，因为这种怨恨似乎确实非常深重。

Well, Natalie, I'd be tempted to say eight or nine on a scale of 10 because the bitterness does seem to be running very deep.

我们正处在一个前所未有的境地：一位总统在没有任何支持、甚至几乎所有欧洲盟友都日益反对的情况下发动战争。

We're in fairly uncharted territory with a president waging war with no support and indeed growing opposition to it among virtually all his European allies.

明白了。

Okay.

我猜这其实始于美国根本没告诉盟友我们即将对伊朗开战。

I assume this really starts with The US not telling our allies that we were about to go to war with Iran in the first place.

是的。

It does.

但请记住，要理解这一点，你其实还得往更早之前看。

But remember, to start, you really have to go even further back.

你必须回顾特朗普政府第一年积累的所有创伤痕迹。

You have to look at all the accumulated scar tissue of the first year of the Trump administration.

特朗普总统上台后威胁要吞并格陵兰。

President Trump came in threatening to take over Greenland.

接着他对欧洲征收关税。

Then he imposed tariffs on Europe.

因此，早在伊朗问题之前，欧洲方面就已经感到美国不再是一个盟友，甚至在某些方面开始像掠食者一样行事。

So even before Iran, you had a sense on the European side that The United States was no longer an ally and indeed in some ways was beginning to behave like a predator.

于是，当总统与以色列联手对伊朗发动战争，却连咨询欧洲、甚至不告知他们即将发动袭击的步骤都省略时，所有这些积怨都悬在两国关系之上。

And so all of that baggage was hanging over the relationship when the president goes to war against Iran with Israel and does not even consult Europe, does not even tell them the attack is coming.

美国和以色列已对伊朗全境发动空袭。

The United States and Israel have launched airstrikes across Iran.

特朗普总统表示，目标是通过非法手段保护美国人民。

President Trump says the objective is to defend the American people by illegal

因此，在2月28日早晨，欧洲醒来时得知美国和以色列正在对伊朗实施军事打击。

So on the morning of February 28, Europe wakes up to the news that The US and Israel are carrying out military strikes on Iran.

今天的袭击可能会永久改变中东，并引发唐纳德·特朗普曾誓言要结束的那种持久战争。

Today's attack could forever change The Middle East and risks a forever war of the kind Donald Trump had vowed to end.

而他们却置身于一场直接关系到自身安全的冲突之外。

And they are on the sidelines of a conflict that has direct security implications for them.

对。

Right.

他们该如何回应？

And how do they respond?

法国既未被通知，也未被参与，就像该地区所有其他国家和我们的盟友一样。

France was neither informed nor involved, just like all the other countries in the region and our allies.

他们回应得非常谨慎。

Well, they respond very cautiously.

我们呼吁最大限度地克制使用武力，尊重平民生命，寻求通过外交途径解决当前局势。

We call for maximum restraint in the use of force, respect for the lives of civilians, the search for a diplomatic way out of this current

首先，他们根本不会直接批评总统。

First of all, by not criticizing the president in any direct way.

英国没有参与这些袭击，但我们长期以来立场明确。

The United Kingdom played no role in these strikes, but we have long been clear.

伊朗政权令人极度憎恶。

The regime in Iran is utterly abhorrent.

即使他们承认这并非他们参与的行动。

Even as they acknowledge that this was not an operation they were involved in.

但无论如何，特朗普总统很快就开始向欧洲国家寻求帮助。

But regardless of that, president Trump soon begins asking the Europeans for help.

在某些方面，这很简单，比如允许他们使用欧洲领空。

In some ways, it's easy stuff, giving them overflight rights to use European airspace.

有些则更复杂。

Some are more complicated.

美国确实请求使用英国的基地来发动他们称之为防御性的打击。

The United States did make a request to use British bases to launch strikes that they call defensive strikes.

允许美国使用欧洲领土上的军事基地。

Letting The United States use military bases on European soil.

当特朗普提出这些请求时，我们的欧洲盟友会怎么做？

And what do our European allies do when Trump starts making those requests?

有些国家直接拒绝了。

Some countries flat out refuse.

西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯已拒绝美国使用其国家基地作为行动一部分的请求。

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez has denied US requests to use his country's bases as part of the operation.

有些国家则更愿意进行谈判。

Some countries are more willing to negotiate.

我们现在不会参与任何进攻性行动，但伊朗正在推行焦土战略。

We will not join offensive action now, But Iran is pursuing a scorched earth strategy.

因此，我们正在支持我们盟友和该地区人民的集体自卫。

So we are supporting the collective self defense of our allies and our people in the region.

由于欧洲并未参与此次行动，他们愿意为防御性和后勤行动提供帮助，但不会参与进攻性军事行动。

Because Europe is not involved in this, they're willing to offer help for defensive and logistical operations, but not for offensive military operations.

这很快让他们陷入了一个难以平衡的困境。

And that quickly becomes a complicated balance for them to walk.

那么，特朗普如何看待这种仅限于防御行动、不参与任何进攻性行动的承诺呢？

And so how does Trump see that, that commitment to only do defensive actions, but not to join up in anything offensive?

特朗普对这个问题的看法非常非黑即白。

Trump has a very black and white view of this.

如果你不在进攻方面帮他，那你就是没帮他，就这么简单。

If you're not helping him on the offensive side, you're not helping him, full stop.

因此，特朗普认为欧洲没有挺身而出，没有支持北约盟友，他很快就会对此提出批评。

And so Trump's view is that Europe is not stepping up, is not backing a NATO ally, and he's pretty quick to level that criticism at them.

我们将切断与西班牙的所有贸易。

We're gonna cut off all trade with Spain.

我们不想和西班牙有任何瓜葛。

We don't want anything to do with Spain.

特朗普总统威胁要切断与西班牙的贸易关系。

President Trump threatens to cut off trade relations with Spain.

顺便说一句，我对英国也不满意。

By the way, I'm not happy with The UK either.

特朗普说，英国首相基尔·斯塔默是，quote

Trump says that prime minister Kyr Starmor of Britain is, quote

我们面对的不是温斯顿·丘吉尔。

Not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.

没有温斯顿·丘吉尔，但欧洲国家仍以相对温和但具有象征性意义的方式对特朗普说不。

No Winston Churchill, but European countries in in relatively modest but symbolically important ways stand up to Trump.

而这当然进一步加剧了紧张局势。

And that, of course, just deepens the tension even further.

我的感觉是，马克，尽管欧洲划出了这条红线，但他们正越来越多地被卷入这场冲突。

My sense, Mark, is that despite that red line that Europe draws, they have started to get pulled in more and more into this conflict.

你能具体描述一下到目前为止他们实际做了些什么吗？

Can you just describe the extent of what they've actually done up until this point?

你说得对。

Well, you're right.

欧洲确实几乎不可避免地会被卷入，原因有几点。

Europe does get drawn in almost inevitably for a couple of reasons.

一方面，一些欧洲国家，尤其是英国和法国，在该地区或附近设有军事基地。

One is that some European countries, Britain and France notably, have military bases in the region or near the region.

而这些基地不可避免地会成为伊朗无人机或导弹的攻击目标。

And some of those bases are inevitably targeted by Iranian drones or Iranian missiles.

因此，欧洲不得不介入以保卫自己的基地。

So Europe is drawn in in terms of defending its own bases.

此外，欧洲国家还与该地区的国家，如科威特和阿联酋，签订了安全协议。

It's also drawn in because European countries have security agreements with countries in the region, with Kuwait, with The UAE.

因此，欧洲的飞机在阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特等地的上空飞行，协助这些国家抵御伊朗的攻击。

And so European planes are in the air over places like The UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, helping defend those countries from Iranian attacks.

然后，当然，伊朗关闭了霍尔木兹海峡——这是世界上最具有战略意义的水道之一，大约五分之一的欧洲石油和天然气都经由此处运输，这使欧洲领导人陷入极其艰难的境地，因为特朗普随后要求欧洲国家出面武力重新开放海峡，而欧洲国家拒绝了。

And then, of course, Iran shuts down the Strait Of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategic waterways and the place through which about a fifth of Europe's oil and gas flows and puts Europe's leaders in an incredibly difficult position because then Trump asked the Europeans to step up and forcibly reopen it, and the Europeans refuse.

此后，局势变得更加动荡。

After that, things start getting even more turbulent.

在一次演讲中，特朗普特别抨击了北约。

In a speech, Trump lashes out specifically at NATO.

他们只是纸老虎，所以我们其实不需要他们，但我还是问了。

They're a paper tiger, but, so we didn't need them, but I I asked anyway.

他

He

说他根本不需要他们的帮助。

says he doesn't even need their help.

我们现在真的不再需要那么多石油了。

We have is we really don't need anymore oil.

能拿到当然好，但我们并不需要。

Be nice to take it, but we don't need it.

我们对欧洲以及所有这些需要石油的国家说。

And we say to Europe and all these countries that do.

你知道，中国得到了

You know, China gets

而美国不再需要任何石油，因此霍尔木兹海峡不再是他的问题。

And that The US doesn't need any more oil, So the Strait Of Hormuz is no longer his problem.

那就让他们去做吧。

So let them do it.

让法国去做吧。

Let France do it.

他们从海峡获得大量石油。

They get a lot of oil from the Strait.

让欧洲国家去做吧。

Let the European countries do it.

他正在告诉

He's telling the

盟友去自己获取石油。

allies to go get your own oil.

事情真正达到了高潮，他们联系了法国的马克龙。

And things really reach a kind of crescendo They call up France, Macron.

特朗普与法国总统马克龙之间展开了这种针锋相对的较量。

With this tit for tat between Trump and president Macron of France.

谁的妻子对他极其不好？

Whose wife treats him extremely badly?

而且还在从右脸的打击中恢复。

And Still recovering from the right to the jaw.

你看到特朗普总统取笑了一起涉及马克龙和他的妻子的事件。

You saw president Trump making fun of an incident involving Macron and his wife.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

他在描述法国支持伊朗行动的对话时，甚至模仿了马克龙的口音。

He even imitates Macron's accent when describing their conversation about the French supporting the efforts in Iran.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我们不能那样做，唐纳德。

We cannot do that, Donald.

我们可以等到战争胜利后再这么做。

We can we can do that after the war is won.

马克龙反击了。

Macron strikes back.

我听到的你所指的那些言论既不优雅也不恰当。

The remarks I heard that you're referring to are neither elegant nor appropriate.

所以我不会对此作出回应。

So I'm not going to respond to them.

它们不值得被回应。

They don't deserve a response.

通过

By

质疑在战争时期使用这种语言的恰当性，同时也质疑特朗普作为战时领导人的能力。

questioning both the worthiness of using that kind of language during wartime, but also questioning Trump as a wartime leader.

所以我们必须

So we have to

认真对待。

be serious.

我们想认真对待。

We wanna be serious.

我们不会每天都说出与前一天相反的话。

We don't say the opposite of what we said the day before every day.

也许我们不应该每天都在说话。

And maybe we shouldn't talk every day.

好的。

Okay.

到目前为止，每个人对彼此都越来越感到沮丧。

So everyone is increasingly frustrated with each other at this point.

特朗普究竟为什么认为我们的欧洲盟友应该参与其中？

What exactly has Trump's argument been for the reason that our European allies should be involved in this?

好吧，你可以将其简化为两个主要观点。

Well, you can boil it down to sort of two.

一是伊朗获得核武器的威胁，对欧洲而言，与对以色列或美国一样迫在眉睫。

One is the threat of Iran getting a nuclear weapon is every bit as imminent a threat to Europe as it is to Israel or The United States.

但除此之外，他说，欧洲正处于伊朗弹道导弹的射程之内。

But beyond that, Europe, he says, lies within range of Iran's ballistic missiles.

这在一定程度上是有争议的，但确实欧洲比美国离伊朗近了数千英里。

Now that's a somewhat debatable proposition, but it is true that Europe is thousands of miles closer to Iran than The United States.

因此，理论上，欧洲的首都——柏林、巴黎、伦敦——最终，甚至可能已经处于伊朗导弹的射程之内。

So theoretically, European capitals, Berlin, Paris, London, could eventually, if not already, be within range of Iranian missiles.

因此，总统对欧洲领导人说的是：别自欺欺人了。

So what the president is saying to European leaders is, don't kid yourselves.

核威胁对你们而言和对我们一样严重，而导弹威胁对你们来说比对我们更紧迫。

The nuclear threat is as big a danger for you as it is for us, and the missile threat is a bigger deal for you than it is for us.

明白了

Got

就是如此。

it.

而且不仅如此，唐纳德·特朗普提出了一个更简单的论点。

And even beyond that, Donald Trump's making an even more simple argument.

朋友帮助朋友。

Friends help friends.

这些国家都是北约的成员。

These countries are all members of NATO.

北约联盟的核心原则之一载于第五条，规定如果联盟任何成员受到攻击，其他成员将挺身而出予以保卫。

One of the core principles of the NATO alliance is enshrined in article five, which says that if any member of the alliance comes under attack, the other members of the alliance will step up to defend it.

唐纳德·特朗普在这里所援引的，正是这一原则。

This is in principle what Donald Trump is invoking here.

当然，欧洲领导人对他说的是，这次美国并没有遭到攻击。

Of course, what European leaders are saying to him is The US wasn't attacked in this case.

这并不属于触发第五条的情况。

This is not a case that invokes article five.

所以，这是他们不加入美国和伊朗之间行动的主要原因吗？

So is that the main reason why they're not joining The US and Iran?

是因为美国没有被攻击，反而首先发动了攻击吗？

Because The US wasn't attacked but launched the attacks first?

我认为欧洲人有多个问题，但最基本的一点是，他们深深怀疑军事打击能否解决总统声称要解决的问题，特别是核问题。

I think the Europeans have a number of issues, but one of the most basic is that there's a deep skepticism that military strikes are gonna solve the problems that the president says they're gonna solve, specifically on the nuclear issue.

总统并未提出令人信服且有说服力的论据，证明全面军事行动能够实现消除伊朗核计划的目标。

The president has not made a compelling and convincing argument that a full scale military campaign is going to accomplish the goal of eradicating the nuclear program.

他们指出，那些已经遭到破坏的伊朗设施下方的高浓缩铀将极难获取，而伊朗的核计划此前已因美国和以色列主导的打击而严重受创。

They point out that the highly enriched uranium that lies under these already destroyed Iranian facilities is gonna be very hard to get at, that Iran's already been crippled in its nuclear program by previous strikes led by The United States and Israel.

因此，发动一场全面战争的想法对他们来说缺乏说服力。

And so the idea of starting a full blown war just doesn't seem persuasive to them.

听起来，他们本质上并不认同这场战争的战略或其正当性。

It sounds like they're essentially not agreeing with the strategy behind the war or the justification for it.

他们犹豫的另一个原因，是不是因为他们在观察霍尔木兹海峡的局势，并评估自己实际上几乎无法帮助恢复航道畅通？

Is another reason for their reluctance just that they're looking at the situation in the Strait Of Hormuz and assessing that there actually may be very little that they can do to help reopen it?

是的

Yeah.

这是一个非常重要的观点。

That's a very important point.

德国曾提出过一个问题：我们能做些什么，而美国做不到？

Germany had sort of asked, what is it that we can do that The United States can't do?

对。

Right.

其他欧洲领导人一再表示，在冲突期间，很难在霍尔木兹海峡找到一个解决方案，该方案既不会让我们的船只和服役人员陷入危险，又不一定能解决问题。

And other European leaders have repeatedly said, it's difficult to see a solution in the Strait Of Hormuz during the conflict that does not simply put our ships and our service people at risk and doesn't necessarily solve the problem.

马克，这是真的吗？

And is that true, Mark?

我的意思是，他们实际上能做些什么？

Like, what could they do, actually?

嗯，欧洲有几个优势领域。

Well, Europe has a couple of competencies.

其中之一是清除水雷。

One is in the area of clearing mines.

他们确实拥有扫雷舰。

They do have minesweeping ships.

关于伊朗是否真的在霍尔木兹海峡布设了水雷，目前存在一场非常激烈的讨论。

There is a a very healthy debate about whether Iran has actually laid mines in the Strait Of Hormuz.

但如果存在证据表明他们确实布设了水雷，欧洲国家可以派遣扫雷舰。

But if there was evidence they had, the Europeans could send minesweepers.

欧洲国家还可以派遣护卫舰，为通过海峡的油轮护航。

The Europeans could also send frigates to escort oil tankers through the Strait.

这正是欧洲海军所具备的能力。

That is something that European navies have.

问题是，如果在冲突期间这样做，这些护卫舰将成为伊朗无人机和短程导弹以及各种来袭火力的目标。

The problem with that is if you're doing it during the conflict, those frigates would be targets for Iranian drones and short range missiles and all kinds of incoming fire.

因此，我认为欧洲领导人坚决反对在冲突持续期间采取这种行动。

And so I think European leaders are dead set against doing that while the conflict is raging.

他们可能愿意在冲突结束后采取行动，以增强航运公司的信心。

They might be open to doing it after the conflict as a way of bolstering the confidence of the shipping companies.

就在上周，法国实际上有一艘船通过了海峡。

Just this past week, France actually got a ship through the strait.

我们并不清楚具体是如何做到的，但这表明可能存在其他方法，比如与伊朗达成协议，而这当然会进一步激怒特朗普总统。

We don't know exactly how it happened, but it suggests that there are possible other methods like cutting deals with Iran, which, of course, would further antagonize president Trump.

所以，基本上，欧洲人可以采取一些行动，但他们可用的选项有限且充满风险。

So, basically, the Europeans could do something, but the options they have are limited and sort of fraught.

而且，总体来看，他们对介入解决一个他们并不认为能够解决的问题感到非常不安，更担心因此被拖入一场没有明确终点的冲突。

And it generally seems as though they are pretty uneasy about jumping in to solve a problem they don't actually think can be solved and then possibly being dragged into a conflict with no clear end.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

我的意思是，对他们来说，这样做风险重重，而收益却非常有限，甚至可能根本没有收益。

I mean, for them, they see all kinds of downside risk for very little, if any, upside benefit.

别忘了，这件事背后有着深厚的历史背景。

And remember, there's a lot of history hanging over this.

具体来说，有两场战争笼罩着它。

Specifically, are two wars hanging over it.

第一场是阿富汗战争，这场战争始于9·11袭击美国之后，当时北约确实团结起来支持美国。

The first was in Afghanistan, a war that began after the nine eleven attacks on the US when NATO did rally to the defense of The United States.

对。

Right.

欧洲军队曾与美国一道在阿富汗作战，而这场战争最终演变成一场持续二十年的苦战，以塔利班重新夺回政权告终。

European troops fought alongside the Americans in Afghanistan, which, of course, turned out to be a grinding two decade long conflict that ended with the Taliban recapturing the country.

嗯。

Mhmm.

在某种程度上，它堪称国家建设中所有难题的百科全书。

It was in some ways an encyclopedia of everything that is hard about nation building.

是的。

Yeah.

在伊拉克，情况非常不同，那是一场出于选择而非必要性的战争，并未得到普遍支持。

In Iraq, which was very different, that was a a war of choice rather than a war of necessity, and it was not supported universally.

记住，英国支持了这场战争，但德国和法国都避而远之，认为当时的总统乔治·W.

Remember, Britain supported it, but Germany and France, both steer clear of it, believing that the president at the time, George W.

布什并未充分证明全面军事入侵是当时唯一且最佳的选择。

Bush, had not made a compelling case that a full scale military invasion was the only and best option in this case.

多年来，伊拉克战争一直是欧洲的一场创伤，这是一场漫长而艰难的冲突，带来了各种附带影响，最终以极不令人满意的方式收场。

And Iraq has really been a source of trauma in Europe for many years, a lengthy, difficult conflict with all kinds of collateral effects that ended very unsatisfactorily.

英国支持了这场战争。

In Britain, supported the war.

这场战争如此不得人心，以至于严重损害了首相托尼·布莱尔的声誉，并引发了多年的相互指责。

It was so unpopular that it really poisoned the legacy of prime minister Tony Blair and caused years of recrimination.

因此，这些政治领袖在看待伊朗时，很大程度上是带着伊拉克战争及其带来的所有负面记忆的视角来看待的。

So as these political leaders look at Iran, they are looking at it very much through the lens of Iraq and all the bad memories they have of that war.

好的。

Okay.

因此，考虑到这段历史，欧洲人不想卷入这场战争，甚至在局势日益恶化的情况下，仍竭力抵制任何将他们拖入战争的努力，这完全可以理解。

So given that history, it makes sense why the Europeans don't wanna be in this war and why they would resist as much as possible any effort to pull them in even as things get worse and worse on the ground.

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

It certainly does.

但正如你所说，局势正在变得越来越糟。

But as you say, the situation is getting worse and worse.

欧洲本已陷入能源危机，如今又面临取暖油和汽油价格的飙升。

Europe, which was already in the grip of an energy crisis, is now facing skyrocketing prices for heating oil, for gasoline.

这种影响正开始渗透到这些国家的政治体系中。

It's beginning to bleed into the political systems in all these countries.

因此，无论欧洲是否愿意，这场危机已经降临到它的门口。

And so the crisis, whether Europe wants it or not, has arrived at its doorstep.

而它是否能避免卷入战争，现在已经不明确了。

And whether it can avoid the war is no longer clear.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

你是《每日新闻》的常听者。

You're a regular listener of The Daily.

你喜欢了解世界正在发生的事情。

You like knowing what's going on in the world.

如果你订阅《纽约时报》，你就能知道得多得多。

Well, you could know way more if you subscribe to The New York Times.

我是迈克尔·西蒙·约翰逊。

I'm Michael Simon Johnson.

我是制作《每日新闻》的制作人之一。

I'm one of the producers that makes The Daily.

我们在节目中能涵盖的内容，只是《纽约时报》每天发布的惊人报道中的一小部分。

What we can cover on the show is really just a sliver of the incredible reporting that's being published every day in The New York Times.

一些出人意料且富有洞察力的文章，你 otherwise 可能永远都不会遇到。

Unexpected, insightful articles you might never otherwise come across.

对于

For

对我来说，就是这篇关于各州如何法律上分类蝴蝶的文章。

me, that's this piece about how states legally classify butterflies.

这涉及到它们是否被认定为野生动物。

It has to do with whether they're considered wildlife.

很难解释，但非常有趣，你真的应该读一读。

It's hard to explain, but it's fascinating, and and you should just read it.

《纽约时报》当然提供每日重要且不可或缺的新闻，其中许多我们也在《每日新闻》中报道，但还有更多内容值得探索。

The Times obviously delivers the vital, essential news of the day, much of which we cover on The Daily, but there is so much beyond that to explore.

是的，当你成为《纽约时报》的订阅用户时，你支持了所有的新闻报道，但你也因此能亲身体验这些内容。

And yes, you support all of this journalism when you become a subscriber to The New York Times, but you also get to experience it.

你的求知欲将得到满足。

You get your curiosity fed.

你能了解到有趣的内容，也能了解世界上正在发生的事情。

You get to know cool stuff, and you get to be informed about what's going on in the world.

你可以访问 nytimes.com/subscribe 进行订阅。

You can subscribe at nytimes.com/subscribe.

马克，尽管欧洲可能觉得不公平，但正如你所说，这场战争已经影响了全球经济。

Mark, as unfair as it may seem to Europe as much as they wanna stay out of it, the war has affected the global economy, as you said.

欧洲严重依赖通过海峡运输的石油。

And Europe does depend heavily on the oil coming through the strait.

所以，无论他们是否愿意，都已被牵涉其中。

So they're implicated, whether they like it or not.

是的。

Yeah.

他们确实如此。

They are.

如果要说的话，这其中存在着一种不公。

There's an injustice in this, if you like.

他们不想与这场战争有任何牵连。

They didn't wanna have anything to do with this war.

他们没有被征询过意见。

They weren't consulted on it.

他们对此深感忧虑，但却无法完全置身事外，因为这场战争也已成为他们的战争。

They have deep reservations about it, and yet they can't stay out of it altogether because it has become their war as well.

在整个欧洲，你都能看到各种困境的迹象。

Across Europe, you see all kinds of signs of distress.

在德国，一加仑柴油的价格现在已经超过9美元。

In Germany, a gallon of diesel fuel is now over $9.

天哪。

Woah.

英国的天然气价格已经飙升。

Natural gas prices have skyrocketed in Britain.

你正看到各种潜在的政治动荡。

You're seeing all kinds of potential political upheaval.

各国政府开始谈论巨额救助问题。

Governments are beginning to talk about very costly bailout problems.

政府的财政计划被打乱了，因为突然之间需要支付巨额款项来弥补能源短缺。

Government's fiscal plans are being upended because suddenly there are these huge payments being demanded to cover these energy shortfalls.

因此，在整个欧洲，你都能看到战争带来的连锁反应，它已经改变了所有事情。

So across the continent, you just see a ripple effect where the war has changed everything.

好的。

Okay.

所以，正如你所指出的，存在着一种真正的矛盾：一方面不想卷入其中，另一方面却又因这场战争而承受着切实的痛苦。

So there is, as you're noting, a real tension between not wanting to be involved at all, but also experiencing very real pain as a result of this war.

我还可以想象，除了这一切之外，欧洲依赖美国提供安全保障，而激怒特朗普是有风险的。

I can also imagine that on top of all of that, Europe relies on The US for their security, and there is a risk in pissing Trump off.

对吧？

Right?

确实如此。

There is indeed.

事实上，每一位欧洲领导人脑海中都存在着这场冲突与乌克兰之间的联系。

And in fact, one of the linkages that has been in the mind of every European leader is between this conflict and Ukraine.

如果你在伊朗问题上过度激怒特朗普总统，他可能会撤回对乌克兰的美国支持，而这无疑是对欧洲直接的安全威胁。

If you antagonize president Trump too much on Iran, he might pull American support from Ukraine, and that is, of course, a direct security concern for the Europeans.

因此，欧洲对美国有着真正的依赖感，同时也很不愿意严重冒犯总统，以免他因此在其他领域采取报复。

So there is a real sense of reliance on the part of Europe, on The United States, and a real reluctance to alienate the president so badly that he lashes out in other areas.

比如通过关税。

For example, with tariffs.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我们过去已经看到，特朗普曾用关税惩罚过其他国家。

I mean, we've seen in the past that Trump has punished countries with tariffs.

但我其实想知道，马克，我们的欧洲盟友是否因为最高法院最近裁定许多这些关税非法，而比以往更有底气去对抗特朗普？

But I'm actually wondering, Mark, if our European allies have become a little more emboldened to stand up to Trump than maybe they would have been in the past because the Supreme Court recently ruled that a lot of those tariffs were illegal.

你认为这是其中一个因素吗？

Do you think that was a factor here?

是的。

I do.

我认为总统有两个手段。

I think that the president had two levers.

一个是乌克兰，另一个是通过关税的经济手段。

One was Ukraine, and the other was economic through tariffs.

欧洲人迫切希望避免最严重的关税影响。

And the Europeans were desperate to head off the worst of the tariffs.

现在，最高法院已经为他们做了一部分工作。

Well, now the supreme court has done a bit of their work for them.

这并不意味着不会有任何关税，但白宫不得不重新考虑如何实施关税以及将使用哪些授权。

Doesn't mean there won't be any tariffs, but the White House is back to the drawing board on how they're gonna impose tariffs, what authorities they're gonna use.

这使得局势更加模糊，但也提高了欧洲不会面临这种特定施压手段的可能性。

And it has left the situation much more murky, but also raised the prospect that Europe is not gonna face that particular form of leverage.

我认为这让他们对总统的态度变得更加大胆。

And it is something that I think is causing them to feel somewhat bolder toward the president.

那么，这对这些欧洲领导人来说，国内政治上会有什么影响呢？

And what about the domestic politics of this for these European leaders?

这些具体的政客是如何应对在国内卷入或不卷入所带来的潜在后果的？

How are these specific politicians dealing with the potential fallout of both getting involved or not getting involved at home?

这很有趣，而且取决于政客们所属的政党不同而有所差异。

Well, it's interesting, and it differs depending on what party the politicians are from.

在意大利，极右翼政党领袖乔治亚·梅洛尼实际上已经建立起一种‘特朗普知音’的声誉。

In Italy, Georgia Maloney, who is the leader of a far right party, has actually kinda developed a reputation as a Trump whisperer.

她被视为特朗普信任、能够与特朗普沟通的人，但她所治理的国家中，特朗普却非常不受欢迎。

She's viewed as someone who Trump trusts, who can talk to Trump, but she governs in a country where Trump is very unpopular.

事实上，在过去几周，政府在一项司法改革公投中失败了。

And in fact, in the last couple of weeks, the government lost a judicial reform referendum.

而他们可能输掉这次投票的原因之一，是公众对伊朗战争的强烈反感。

And one of the reasons that they may have lost this vote is because of a public backlash on the war in Iran.

因此，这使梅洛尼陷入了非常艰难的境地。

So this has put Maloney in a very difficult position.

另一方面，在英国，有一位工党首相基尔·斯塔默。

In Britain, on the other hand, you have a labor prime minister, Keir Starmer.

他一直努力培养与特朗普总统的尊重关系。

He's worked very hard to cultivate a respectful relationship with president Trump.

正如我们之前讨论的，这并没有让他免受特朗普总统的侮辱。

As we discussed earlier, it didn't shield him from being insulted by president Trump.

但在英国，这实际上反而对斯塔默有利，因为他能够展现出独立性，以一种在英国选民中广受欢迎的方式对抗总统——这些选民大多不喜欢特朗普。

But in Britain, it's actually kind of worked in Starmer's favor because he's been able to show his independence and stand up to the president in a way that is popular with a lot of the voters in Britain who don't like Trump.

因此，不同国家的情况各不相同。

So it's a different picture in different countries.

但在所有这些国家，领导人面临的都是同样的艰难平衡：如何避免卷入公众不支持或不认同的战争，同时又显得竭尽全力防止能源危机席卷我们的经济？

But in all of these countries, the leaders are walking the same difficult balance, which is how do we stay out of a war that our publics don't like or support, but how do we look like we're doing everything we can to prevent an energy crisis from taking over our economies?

但据我所知，目前他们仍然基本坚持不被拖入战争的立场，至少不是以特朗普希望的方式。

But for now, as far as I understand it, they're still mostly holding the line on not getting dragged into the war, at least not in the way that Trump wants.

似乎我们的盟友基本上在说：听着，我们实际上没有义务以那种方式提供帮助。

And it seems as though our allies are essentially saying, look, we actually have no obligation to help in that way.

根据北约的条文，只有在遭到攻击后，成员国才有义务介入战争以相互防卫。

The letter of the law under NATO is that you only get involved in wars to defend each other after you've been attacked.

但是，马克，特朗普的观点是否正确？他认为北约的精神是在极端情况下，盟友应当团结一致、共同行动。

But, Mark, does Trump have a point that the spirit of NATO is that the allies lock arms and act together in extreme circumstances.

以乌克兰为例。

Take Ukraine, for example.

乌克兰并非北约成员国，但在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后，美国却介入其中，花费了数十亿美元的纳税人资金提供援助。

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and yet after Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, The US got involved and spent billions of taxpayer dollars to help.

因此，特朗普期望欧洲现在加大投入，这种要求公平吗？

So is Trump's expectation that the Europeans should step up now fair?

当然，这正是唐纳德·特朗普及其盟友的看法。

Well, that is certainly how Donald Trump and his allies see it.

正如你所说，他们以乌克兰为例，认为欧洲在当前情况下理应承担更多责任。

And as you say, they cite Ukraine as a perfect example of why Europe should step up in this case.

但如果你回顾北约的历史，或与研究该联盟的历史学者交流，就会发现这种类比其实并不恰当。

But if you look at the history of NATO and if you talk to historians of the alliance, it's really not a very good analogy.

北约成员国没有义务盲目追随其他成员国的军事行动，尤其是当他们认为这些行动不明智或考虑不周时。

NATO members are not obligated to blindly follow the military adventures of other members, particularly if they think they're unwise or poorly thought out.

对。

Right.

这方面最好的例子是上世纪五十年代的苏伊士运河危机，当时英国和法国与以色列结盟，对埃及采取行动，而美国却出面反对，认为这一行动是错误的。

And the best example of this is back in the nineteen fifties, the Suez crisis, when Britain and France allied with Israel in an operation against Egypt, and The United States stepped in to oppose it because they thought it was wrongheaded.

这曾给联盟带来严重紧张，但也为北约成员国应如何行事树立了先例——特别是当他们不支持另一成员国的行动时。

It caused severe strains in the alliance, but it laid a predicate for the way that NATO members should behave, particularly if they don't support what another NATO member is doing.

因此，北约的历史并非在每一场冲突中都保持一致。

So the history of NATO is not one of unanimity in every conflict.

毕竟，北约是一个由民主国家组成的联盟，这些国家都有自己的民主制度和政治体系需要应对。

It is, after all, an alliance of democratic countries who have their own democracies and their own political systems to deal with.

所以我认为，北约成员国的义务是给予另一成员国公平的倾听机会，认真听取他们的论点，如果支持，就加入其中。

So I think the obligation for a NATO member is to give another NATO member a fair hearing to listen to their argument, and if they support it, to join.

但在没有第五条的情况下，他们没有义务必须参与，而在此情况下，他们已经决定不参与。

But absent article five, they are not obligated to do so, and in this case, they have decided not to.

你在伊拉克看到了这一点，但早在那之前，你在苏伊士危机中就已经看到了。

You saw it in Iraq, but even before that, you saw it in the Suez Crisis.

那么，根据你所描述的一切，我们的欧洲盟友正在走的这条钢丝，他们该怎么办呢？

So given everything you've described, this tightrope that our European allies are walking, what do they do?

他们的选择有哪些？

What are their options?

嗯，他们并没有太多好的选择，但他们正在多个层面上努力。

Well, they don't have great options, but they are working on a couple of different levels.

在外交层面，欧洲国家继续运用过去行之有效的手段。

On a diplomatic level, the Europeans are continuing to deploy what have been tried and true weapons in the past.

查尔斯国王将对美国进行国事访问。

King Charles is going to The United States on a state visit.

特朗普喜欢王室成员。

Trump loves the royals.

特朗普喜欢王室成员。

Trump loves the royals.

尽管英国有一些声音质疑现在是否是查尔斯国王访美的好时机，但他们仍坚持推进这次访问。

And although there have been some voices in Britain asking why is this a good time for king Charles to go to The US, they're forging ahead with the trip.

我认为他们的考量是，这能为他们赢得一些好感。

And I think their calculation is that it will buy them some goodwill.

这将提醒总统为何重视英国作为盟友，或许还能缓和一些紧张关系。

It will be a reminder to the president of why he values Britain as an ally, and it will maybe smooth out some of these rough edges.

对于整个欧洲而言，在更实际的操作层面，他们已经开始规划战后如何保障霍尔木兹海峡的安全。

For the Europeans as a whole, on a more gritty operational level, they are starting to make plans for how to secure the Strait Of Hormuz after this war is over.

英国组织了一次由35个国家参加的视频会议，讨论这一联盟可能的构成、哪些国家会参与、将部署何种军事资产，比如扫雷舰还是护航舰。

The British organized a virtual conference call of 35 countries to talk about what this coalition might look like, what countries would contribute to it, what sorts of military assets would be deployed, whether it would be minesweepers or escort ships.

接下来还将召开更深入的操作性会议，以推动整个联盟的组建。

And, there's gonna be further even more operational meetings about putting this whole coalition together.

这一联盟不包括美国，正如欧洲为促成乌克兰停火而组建的‘意愿联盟’也不包括美国一样。

This coalition does not include The United States much as the coalition of the willing that the Europeans have put together to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine also doesn't include The United States.

但事实上，这两项努力都凸显了欧洲所面临的局限性。

But, really, both of these efforts underscore the limitations the Europeans face.

在乌克兰和‘意愿联盟’的情况下，人们普遍认识到，除非美国继续参与并提供某种安全保证，否则整个努力将缺乏实质效力。

In the case of Ukraine and the coalition of the willing, there's a general recognition that unless The United States stays involved, offers some form of security guarantees, this whole effort really doesn't have a lot of teeth to it.

同样，我认为，对于旨在保障霍尔木兹海峡安全的联盟而言，如果美国不以其军事实力和信誉支持维持海峡开放的努力，欧洲几乎不可能独自完成这一任务。

And likewise, I think with the coalition that would secure the Strait Of Hormuz, if The United States doesn't put its military might and its credibility behind an effort to keep the Strait open, it's really highly unlikely that the Europeans are gonna be able to do it on their own.

因此，尽管这些努力展现了欧洲如何应对所谓的后美国时代，但也揭示了美国为何仍然是这一格局中不可或缺的核心部分。

So while these efforts show how Europe is grappling with, if you will, a post American world, it's also revealing why The United States remains such a central part of the equation.

是的。

Yeah.

我们一直大量讨论美国与其欧洲盟友之间的分歧。

We've been talking a lot about the divergence between The US and its European allies.

但你所说的引发了这样一个问题：双方是否真的可能分裂，以至于这种关系长期破裂。

But what you're saying raises the question of how viable it is for the two sides to split for this relationship to actually rupture long term.

这似乎并不现实。

It doesn't seem possible, really.

双方都真正投入其中。

Both sides are truly invested in it.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

欧洲和美国简直就像一对经历了严重婚姻危机的夫妻。

Europe and The United States are really almost like a married couple that's hit a very rough patch.

他们甚至可能住在不同的房子里，但共享着众多资产。

They may be even living in different houses, but they share so many assets.

他们有着太多共同利益，分开的代价可能甚至高于维持关系所需克服的痛苦。

They have so many common interests that the price of splitting is perhaps even higher than the pain of figuring out how to stay together.

对于欧洲而言，面对经济危机和安全危机，与美国决裂的代价可能依然过于沉重。

For Europe, staring down the barrel of an economic crisis and a security crisis, the price of divorcing from The United States is still probably too painful.

好了，马克，非常感谢你。

Well, Mark, thank you so much.

谢谢你，娜塔莉。

Thank you, Natalie.