特朗普接管美联储

《纽约时报》应用里有许多你可能未曾见过的内容。它的设计方式是

The New York Times app has all this stuff that you may not have seen. The way

所有标签页都集中在顶部，分门别类地展示各个板块。

the tabs are at the top with all of the different sections.

我能立即找到符合当下心情的内容。我总是会订购游戏板块。

I can immediately navigate to something that matches what I'm feeling. I order games always.

玩迷你游戏。玩Wordle猜词。

Doing the mini. Doing the Wordle.

我特别喜欢它为我提供的海量内容，那些我从未想过会通过新闻应用获取的东西。

I loved how much content it exposed me to. Things that I never would have thought to turn to a news app for.

这个应用不可或缺。

This app is essential.

《纽约时报》应用。所有资讯，尽在掌中。立即下载：nytimes.com/app。

The New York Times app. All of the times, all in one place. Download it now at nytimes.com/app.

这里是《纽约时报》的迈克尔·比尔巴罗为您带来的《每日播报》。特朗普总统试图解雇美联储理事会成员的决定，是他对央行独立性发起的最肆无忌惮的攻击。今天，本·卡斯尔曼将讲述特朗普为何认为掌控美联储的关键在于一位名叫丽莎·库克的经济学教授。今天是8月27日，星期三。

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro. This is The Daily. President Trump's decision to try to fire a member of the Federal Reserve's governing board is his most audacious attack yet on the independence of the country's central bank. Today, Ben Casselman, on the story of how Trump decided that the road to taking over the Fed ran through an economics professor named Lisa Cook. It's Wednesday, August 27.

感谢你在相对紧急的情况下接受采访。我们非常感激。

Thanks for doing this on short relatively short notice. We appreciate that.

没问题。我很乐意。不过说真的，我出现在这个节目里通常都不是什么好消息。是啊，每当

Yeah. Happy to do it. I mean, it's never good news when I'm on when I'm on this show. No. It's never good news when

你正在参与节目录制。我们可以开始了吗，

you're on the show ever. Shall we get started,

本？我们开始吧

Ben? Let's do

好的。本，首先请向我们介绍一下这位现任美联储理事，她如今正处于这场政治、经济风暴的中心，我们猜测很快也将卷入法律风波。

it. Okay. Ben, just to start, tell us about the Federal Reserve governor now at the center of this political, economic, and we assume soon enough, legal firestorm.

丽莎·库克是个非常杰出的人物。多年来我与她有过深入接触，研究过她在加入美联储理事会之前的职业生涯，远早于当前这场围绕她的争议。要知道，她的故事始于1960年代的佐治亚州。

Lisa Cook is a really remarkable figure. I've spent quite a bit of time with her over the years studying her career from before she joined the Fed Board of Governors, before we started this whole controversy that she's in the middle of now. And, you know, it starts in the nineteen sixties in Georgia.

我在种族隔离逐渐解除的南方长大，那个时期被称为'自由选择时期'。白人家长可以选择去某所学校，或者他们自己创办了白人迁徙学校。

I was growing up in the desegregating South, and this was called, freedom of choice period. So white parents could choose to go to a school or they started their own white flight schools.

她讲述了一个震撼的故事——包括几年前接受国际货币基金组织采访时——关于南方各州学校废除种族隔离的时期，她和姐妹们正是亲身参与废除隔离的先行者。

And she tells powerful story, including in an interview with the International Monetary Fund a few years ago, about this period where schools across the South are being desegregated, and she and her sisters are literally the ones doing the desegregation.

我想有些人当时还不习惯见到黑人孩子。所以我确实遭到了殴打。

Some of them weren't accustomed, I guess, to seeing, black children. So I was I was definitely beaten up.

她遭到同学肢体攻击，对方还使用了种族侮辱性词汇。

And she's attacked, physically attacked by a classmate called a racial epithet.

我之所以确定这是种族歧视事件，是因为那个孩子用N开头的词辱骂我，而我从未听过这个词，回家后还询问了它的含义。

And the reason I know that it was a racist incident was because the child called me the n word, and I'd, never heard it before and went home to ask what that meant.

直到今天，她的眼睛上方还留着那次事件造成的疤痕。哇。我

And bears to this day a physical scar above her eye from that incident. Wow. I

我眉毛被击中的地方至今还留着一道疤。

still have a scar where I was hit in my eyebrow.

最终她进入亚特兰大的斯佩尔曼学院，不经意间爱上了经济学。她说自己最初并没打算成为经济学家。

Eventually, she goes to Spelman College in Atlanta and kind of by the by falls in love with economics. I mean, she says she didn't set out to become an economist.

这个领悟发生在另一个我从未想过会到达的地方——坦桑尼亚的乞力马扎罗山。

I figured it out as it happened at another place I never thought I might get to, Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.

但她在攀登乞力马扎罗山时爱上了经济学，就像

But she I was hiking in love with economics while climbing Mount Kilimanjaro as

人们常有的经历那样。

one does.

就像我们当中常有的经历那样。

As as one does, among us.

当时与我同行的英国经济学家，在徒步结束时让我相信经济学拥有解决重大关键问题的工具。

I was hiking alongside a British economist who, by the end of the track, had me convinced that economics possessed the tools to address some really big and important questions.

后来她进入加州大学伯克利分校，获得经济学博士学位，成为经济学界黑人女性的先驱。那个年代这个领域确实鲜有黑人女性，至今仍不多见。经济学至今仍是白人男性主导的领域。她曾谈及这种身份认同如何影响她的经济学研究。

And then goes on, goes to University of California, Berkeley, earns a a PhD in economics, and is really a pioneer as a as a black woman in economics. I mean, there really were not many at that time, and and frankly still are not that many. It's a field that is really Male and white. Male and white to this day. And she's talked about how that identity informed the work that she did as an economist.

具体是指什么？

Which is what?

她的专业方向是国际关系，是俄罗斯问题专家。她曾在俄罗斯工作生活，先后任职于财政部和白宫。

So her specialty is international relations. She's a expert on Russia. She and spent time there. She's worked at the treasury. She's worked in the White House.

但她最著名的研究很可能源于她自身的经历。我

But probably her best known research really grows out of her own experience. I

可以说是在上世纪九十年代俄罗斯充满不确定性的环境中磨砺出来的。对吧？那种程度的不确定性是我不愿任何经济体经历的。

sort of cut my teeth working in an environment under uncertainty in the nineteen nineties in Russia. Right? So that's a a level of uncertainty that I wouldn't wish on any economy.

经济学中有个重要研究方向是关于创新对增长的重要性。她曾谈到自己如何领悟到：如果缺乏安全感、得不到国家保护，创新将举步维艰。

There's this major strain of research in economics about the importance of innovation to growth. And she's talked about how she sort of had this insight that it's pretty hard to innovate if you don't feel safe and if you're not being protected by the state.

不确定性就是税收。它就是税收。是对企业征收的税。企业无法规划，不知如何在这种变幻莫测的环境中投资。

Uncertainty is a tax. It is a tax. It is a tax on businesses. They can't plan. They don't know how to invest in this environment, and it keeps changing.

她以俄罗斯和后苏联时代的俄罗斯为例阐述这一观点，但实际研究的是美国重建时期后的情况。

She talked about this in the context of Russia and post Soviet Russia, but she researched it in the context of post Reconstruction America.

而且

And

通过研究重建时期结束后南方种族暴力和私刑盛行期间非裔美国人的专利申请情况。或许不足为奇——只要你停下来思考就会发现——但此前无人研究的是：当非裔美国人面临私刑威胁时，他们的专利申请量大幅减少。

looking at patent applications by black Americans during the period of lynchings and racial violence in the South coming out of Reconstruction. And perhaps unsurprisingly, once you stop and think about it, but something that had not been researched, when black Americans were facing lynchings, they weren't filing a lot of patent applications.

没错。被压迫的人民没有创新的自由。

Right. Oppressed people do not have the freedom to innovate.

没有创新的自由。没有发明的自由。没有创业的自由。这不仅对特定群体影响深远——她的研究真正突破在于——更对整个经济产生连锁效应。

Don't have the freedom to innovate. Don't have the freedom to invent. Don't have the freedom to start businesses. And that, of course, has very significant implications for that specific group of people. But it also has implications, and this is really where her research went, for the economy more broadly.

如果我们想确保经济尽可能快速、创新、灵活地发展，就必须保障所有公民受到保护、人身安全、权利不受侵犯，这样他们才能投身这些事业。凭借这项研究及其他成果，她开启了辉煌的学术生涯，并肩负起从内部改革经济学的重任——推动视角多元化。这使她逐渐受到经济学界领袖的重视，最终进入拜登总统的视野。2022年美联储理事会出现空缺时，这位手握重权的决策机构成员提名了她。嗯。

That if we want to ensure that we have the fastest growing and most innovative and most flexible economy possible, we need to make sure that all of our citizens are protected and feel physically safe and have their rights protected so that they can go and do these things. So on on the strength of that research and other work, she goes on to a successful academic career and takes on a really prominent role in trying to really reform economics from inside to try to diversify it, to try to diversify the set of perspectives. And that brings her onto the radar increasingly of the sort of leaders of the economics profession and eventually to President Biden, who in 2022 has an opening on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this very powerful set of policymakers, and and he nominates her to fill one of those slots. Mhmm.

这个职位可以说使她成为美国经济乃至全球经济中最重要的人物之一。

A slot which we should say makes her one of the most important people in The US economy, and in that sense, the global economy.

没错。美联储共有七位理事。我们总是谈论主席，对吧？

Yeah. Absolutely. There there are seven fed governors. We we always talk about the chair. Right?

你我，以及你和我的同事们多次讨论过杰伊·鲍威尔，还有之前的珍妮特·耶伦。但决策是由理事会和更广泛的委员会成员共同做出的。他们都有投票权，主席并不具有额外权重。通过提名她，拜登总统将让她对经济走向产生巨大影响。

You and I, and and you and my colleagues have talked many times about Jay Powell and before that, Janet Yellen. But there's a board of governors and and a larger committee of of folks who make these decisions. They all get a vote. The chair doesn't carry extra weight. And and in nominating her, president Biden is setting her up to have enormous sway over the direction of the economy.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么确认过程

And how did the confirmation

投票进展如何？谢谢华纳参议员。现在请田纳西州的哈格蒂参议员发言。

vote go? Thanks, senator Warner. Senator Hagerty of Tennessee is recognized.

谢谢主席先生。

Thank you, mister chairman.

结果非常接近。

It was it was a squeaker.

但更令我担忧的是，尽管你向肯尼迪议员陈述的背景非常出色，但似乎与美联储的使命无关。我查阅你的出版物和演讲记录时，感觉更像是社会科学而非经济学和货币政策。

But even more concerning to me with respect to your nomination is that your background, although very impressive as you covered with the Kennedy, doesn't seem related to the mission of the Federal Reserve. If I look at your list of publications and your speeches, it seems more like social science than it does economics and monetary policy.

能否描述一下她面临诸多反对意见？她的资质和学术记录遭到大量质疑，原因何在？

Could you describe She faced a lot of opposition. She faced a lot of attacks over her qualifications, over her academic record. Why?

谢谢。货币政策是一种非常直接且强有力的工具。我原本期待一位在货币政策领域经验更为丰富的人选。但我感谢您的出席，也感谢您的关注。

Thank you. Well, monetary policy is a very blunt and a very potent tool. And I would have expected someone with deeper experience in the monetary policy realm. But I appreciate your being here, and thank you for your interest.

需要记住的是，此刻参议院中民主党与共和党各占五十席。这正是共和党开始抵制DEI（多元化、公平与包容）和觉醒主义的初期阶段——这种趋势在特朗普总统任期内持续发酵并增强。不过我要说明，大多数与我交谈的经济学家都强烈反对这种观点，他们认为丽莎·库克的资历与过去许多成功获得美联储提名人选相当。虽然她的学术背景可能不是美联储历史上最突出的，但值得注意的是，杰罗姆·鲍威尔本人也完全没有经济学博士学位。然而她仍面临巨大阻力，最终投票结果陷入五十对五十的僵局。

So it's important to remember, this is a moment when the senate is divided fifty fifty between Democrats and Republicans. And this is sort of the the early days, right, of the sort of Republican pushback against DEI and wokeism that we've seen, of course, continue and and to gain strength under president Trump. Now I should say most of the economists I talked to push back against that very strongly, say that she had a record that, you know, was equivalent to many folks who have been nominated successfully for the Fed in the past. Not probably the strongest academic credentials that we've seen on the Fed, but notably, Jerome Powell doesn't have a PhD in economics at all. So but she faced a lot of opposition, and and the vote ultimately came down to a fifty fifty tie.

本次投票结果：赞成票50，反对票50。由于参议院两党票数持平，副总统投出赞成票，提名获得通过。

On this vote, the yeas are 50, the nays are 50. The senate being equally divided, the vice president votes in the affirmative, and the nomination is confirmed.

卡玛拉·哈里斯打破了僵局，使丽莎·库克进入美联储理事会。

It was broken by Kamala Harris and put Lisa Cook on the board of governors.

正是在这个节点上，丽莎·库克开始无意间与特朗普总统对美联储的构想产生交集。当时虽已卸任，但特朗普及其团队正通过《2025计划》等文件谋划重返权力中心，并重新思考总统与美联储的关系。

And that, of course, is where Lisa Cook starts to intersect unknowingly with president Trump's vision of the Federal Reserve. At that moment, he's out of office, but he and those around him are formulating plans for a return to power with documents like project twenty twenty five. And they're rethinking the relationship between the president and the Fed.

确实。回想特朗普首个任期，他经常批评美联储和鲍威尔——尽管正是他任命鲍威尔为主席。当时他就试图施压要求降息。而当他准备再度执政时，其意图已非常明确：要更直接地控制美联储。他上任后立即开始敦促鲍威尔及美联储整体降低利率，以服务于其政治目标。

Yeah. I mean, you may recall that in his first term, president Trump was frequently very critical of the Fed and of Jay Powell, even though he was the one who had made Jay Powell the chair Right. And had tried to pressure him into lowering interest rates back then. And by the time Trump returned to office, he really pretty clearly had this vision of taking more direct control over the Fed. He he didn't waste any time in starting to badger Powell and and the Fed more generally to lower interest rates and to sort of serve his goals.

没错。这与美联储的传统理念大相径庭。我们节目多次讨论过——

Right. Which was very much at odds with the traditional vision of the Fed. We've talked about

作为独立决策机构的原则。因为传统观点认为，应该由关注经济数据和长期经济健康的经济学家主导美联储决策，而非考虑连任和政治利益的总统。

this a lot on the show as an independent policy making body. Because the thinking has always been, you want economists who are thinking about the numbers and the long term health of the economy driving those decisions at the Fed, not a president thinking about reelection and politics.

是的。美联储独立性是根本性原则，但显然不符合特朗普的构想。很快，他对鲍威尔的施压升级为真正的解雇威胁，并采取了实质性步骤。

Yeah. The whole idea of Fed independence is a sort of bedrock concept. That's clearly not a vision that Trump shares. And, you know, pretty quickly, this badgering of Powell turns into real threats to fire him, and he takes real steps in that direction.

确实如此。

Right.

他最终算是被说服放弃那个打算了。没错。

He's sort of eventually persuaded not to go through with that. Right.

他们认为这可能会在市场上引发灾难性后果。

The thinking is it would be potentially cataclysmic in the markets.

这就是他似乎已被说服的观点，至少目前如此。但他并未放弃控制美联储并使其屈从于自己意志的愿景。因此他正在寻找其他实现方式，最终将矛头对准了理事会成员，特别是丽莎·库克。

That's the thinking that he appears to have been convinced of that, at least for the time being. But he has not given up on this vision of trying to control the Fed and bend it to his will. And so he's looking for another way to achieve that. And that eventually leads him to target the board of governors and specifically to target Lisa Cook.

稍后回来。

We'll be right back.

大家好，我是克里斯·伍德，《每日》节目的音频工程师。我的工作是为节目做最后润色，优化音质，然后点击电脑上的发布按钮。这样当大多数听众醒来时，当天的节目就已准备就绪。《每日》团队每个工作日都要制作节目，这意味着经常工作到深夜，那时他们就会把节目交给我。

Hi there, I'm Chris Wood, audio engineer on The Daily. That means that I put the finishing touches on the show, make everything sound a little bit better, and hit publish on my computer. That sends the day's episode out into the world so it's ready before most of our listeners wake up. So The Daily team makes a show every weekday. That can mean late nights, and that's when they pass it off to me.

我能保持头脑清醒工作的部分原因在于，我这会儿并非深夜。从我的口音你可能已经猜到了——我住在伦敦，比纽约早五个小时。《每日》节目的诞生离不开全球团队协作，也包括那些每周五天为我们提供专业分析和深度报道的《纽约时报》记者们。如果您是我们的忠实听众，想支持我们的工作并探索《纽约时报》的全部内容，可以访问nytimes.com/subscribe订阅。

Part of the reason that I'm able to do the work with a clear head is that it's not the middle of the night for me. You might have already guessed from my accent. I live in London, and we're five hours ahead of New York. The Daily is only possible because it involves people all over the world, and that includes the whole fleet of New York Times journalists who give us their expert analysis and in-depth reporting five days a week. So if you're a loyal listener and want to support what we do as well as explore everything that The New York Times has to offer, you can subscribe @nytimes.comslash subscribe.

谢谢。

Cheers.

本，当特朗普总统及其幕僚决定通过针对美联储理事会来掌控该机构时，他们是如何锁定丽莎·科赫的？

Ben, once president Trump and those around him decide that they wanna try to gain control over the Fed by targeting its board of governors, how do they find their way to Lisa Koch?

我们先来理清这个逻辑关系。

So just remember the math here for a minute.

嗯。

Mhmm.

在特朗普上任时，七名联邦储备委员会理事中有五名是拜登任命的。其中两人是特朗普在其第一任期提名的。其中一个职位已经空缺。因此现在特朗普将有三个席位。要获得理事会多数，他还需要一个席位。

Of the seven members of the board of governors when Trump takes office, five of them are Biden appointees. Two of them were nominated by Trump during his first term. One of those positions has already come vacant. So now Trump will have three. To have a majority of the board, he needs a fourth.

你数学很好。你知道，这就是为什么让我上节目。这是数学问题。所以他需要一个。

You are good at math. You know, this is why you have me on. It's the math. So he he needs one more.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这些职位实际上都不会很快出现空缺。

None of those positions are actually coming up anytime very soon.

没错。因为任命期限很长。

Right. Because the appointments are long.

任命期限故意设置得很长，以避免受到政治干预。因此，他要获得理事会多数的唯一方法是解雇某人，而这并不容易。因为根据《联邦储备法》——我相信你读过很多次——根据管理美联储的法律，理事只能因故被解雇。

The appointments are intentionally long so that they are not subject to political interference. So the only way for him to get a majority of the board is to fire someone, and that's not an easy thing to do. Because under the Federal Reserve Act, which I'm sure you have read many times, under the law that governs the Fed, governors can only be fired for cause.

而‘故’通常意味着玩忽职守、渎职或严重不当行为。这是相当严重的。

And cause generally means dereliction of duty, malfeasance, gross misconduct. It's pretty pretty significant.

是的。这不是小事，通常与他们被任命的工作有关。当然，这就是关于特朗普可能解雇鲍威尔的争论，他需要有理由才能罢免鲍威尔。一般认为他没有这样的理由，所以他正在寻找其他美联储理事。他能在那里找到吗？

Yeah. It's not meant to be something light, and it's generally somehow related to the job that they have been appointed to do. This is, of course, the battle that's been going on about the possibility of Trump firing Powell is that he would need cause to oust Powell. He generally is not thought to have it, so he's looking around at other fed governors. Could he find it there?

他能在那里找到吗？而前来救援的是比尔·普尔特，一个你可能从未听说过的人——直到现在。他领导的机构你可能没听说过，或者肯定没怎么想过。是什么机构？那就是联邦住房金融管理局。

Could he find it there? And riding to his rescue is Bill Pulte, a man you may have never heard of Not until now. Who runs an agency you may not have heard of or certainly don't spend a lot of time thinking of. Which is what? Which is the Federal Housing Finance Administration.

FHFA。他如何在这里为特朗普解围？尽管比尔·普尔特在这个看似无名的机构工作，但他已成为特朗普的主要攻击手和执行者之一。特别是，他利用自己作为这个抵押贷款机构负责人的职位，让他能够接触到所有这些记录。对吧？

The FHFA. And how does he ride to Trump's rescue here? So Bill Pulte, despite being in this sort of anonymous agency, has kind of emerged as one of Trump's premier attack dogs, enforcers. But in particular, he has used his position as the head of this mortgage agency, which gives him access to all of these records. Right?

数百万份关于人们抵押贷款的记录，用于挖掘这些记录中可能对特朗普某些眼中钉不利的信息。嗯。他指控纽约总检察长莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯（曾牵头调查特朗普商业行为）犯有抵押贷款欺诈，同样指控加州参议员亚当·希夫也涉及此类欺诈。

Millions of records on people's mortgages to mine those records for potentially damaging information against some of Trump's perceived enemies. Mhmm. So he accuses Letitia James, who's the New York attorney general who helped lead investigations into president Trump's business practices. He accuses her of mortgage fraud. He does the same against Adam Schiff, senator from California, accuses him of mortgage fraud.

希夫曾在特朗普首个总统任期内主导弹劾调查。而上周，他突然对本文核心人物丽莎·库克提出了相同指控。

Schiff helped lead the investigation in the Trump impeachment trial during president Trump's first term. And last week, sort of out of nowhere, he does the same to Lisa Cook, to our central character character here.

值得注意的是，莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯和丽莎·库克都是黑人女性，且分别是各自职位上首位担任该职务的黑人女性。

It seems worth noting that both Leticia James and Lisa Cook are black women. In fact, black women who are the first black women to hold their respective jobs.

没错。我们尚不清楚丽莎·库克为何成为目标，也不确定种族因素是否起作用。但众所周知，特朗普政府掌权期间常针对有色人种采取行动。

Yeah. That's right. And and we don't know why Lisa Cook was targeted or whether race played any role in that. We do know that the Trump administration has often gone after people of color as it's been sort of taking the levers of power in government.

比尔·普尔特具体指控丽莎·库克在抵押贷款方面做了什么？

And what exactly does Bill Pulte accuse Lisa Cook of doing when it comes to mortgages?

具体而言，他声称2021年库克在密歇根州（当时她是密歇根州立大学教授）购房时，在抵押文件中将该房产申报为主要住所。通常主要住所能获得更低房贷利率。

So specifically, he says that in 2021, she bought a home in Michigan, where she was a professor at Michigan State, and claims it in mortgage documents as her primary residence. Typically, when you buy a home, if it's your primary residence, you can get a lower interest rate on your mortgage.

是的。银行认为借款人会优先保障主要住所的还款。

Right. The bank thinks you're gonna be very reliable when it comes to paying for your primary residence.

没错。人们不会冒险失去主要居所，因此通常能获得更低利率。关键是我们无法确认库克是否确实获得了优惠利率，但可能性很大。

Yes. Your primary residence. You're not gonna risk losing that. So typically, you can get a lower interest rate. We we crucially, we don't know here whether Lisa Cook did get a lower interest rate, but it seems likely that she did.

两周后，比尔·普尔特指控她又在亚特兰大购置公寓，同样在抵押文件中将其列为主要住所。

Two weeks later, Bill Pulte alleges she bought another home, condo in Atlanta, and also claims that in mortgage documents as her primary residence.

明白了。

Got it.

目前你同一时间只能拥有一处主要居所。因此这里的指控是其中一处房产不可能是她的主要居所，从而构成了某种形式的抵押贷款欺诈。

Now you can only have one primary residence at a time. And so the allegation here is that one of those homes could not have been her primary residence, and that, therefore, that that was a form of mortgage fraud.

嗯。看起来确实不太妙，但这算欺诈吗？

Mhmm. Certainly doesn't look good, but is it fraud?

是啊。情况不太妙对吧？她两周内购买两套房产，却都申报为主要居所。这看起来可不太妥当。

Yeah. It doesn't look good. Right? She's buying two homes in two weeks, claiming them both as her primary residence. That doesn't seem great.

但听着，我们还没看到相关文件。不知道是否存在情有可原的情况，也不清楚这是否属于疏忽——嗯——或是失误。而且这些都尚未经过法律裁定。

But look, we haven't seen the documents here. We don't know if there were mitigating circumstances. We don't know if this was an oversight Mhmm. A mistake. And none of this has been adjudicated.

对吧？这些都没上过法庭。没有证据被呈堂。所以现阶段我们无从定论。

Right? None of this has gone to a court. There's been no evidence presented. So we we don't know at this stage.

我们不知道什么？

What we don't know?

我们不知道的。现阶段当然不能确定这就是欺诈。嗯。我们只知道特朗普总统立即抓住此事，将其作为撤换库克博士在理事会职务的由头。

What we don't know. We don't certainly don't know that it's fraud at this point. Mhmm. What we do know is that president Trump immediately seizes on this as the cause he needs to push out doctor Cook as a member of the board of governors.

他直白地说'正当理由需要个理由'，然后表示'这就是我的理由'。

Literally, for cause requires a cause, he says, this is my cause.

没错。他先是要求她辞职，随后威胁不辞职就解雇她。当她拒绝辞职后，便发函称因其'在财务事项上存在欺骗性及潜在犯罪行为'，立即终止其职务。

Yeah. Initially, he calls on her to resign. Then he says if she doesn't resign, he'll fire her. And then when she doesn't resign, he sends her a letter saying that she is terminated effective immediately for cause. He accuses her of, quote, deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter.

并宣称基于这些原因将其解雇。

And he says that for those reasons, he's firing her.

根据你的报道判断，总统声称这是解雇她的理由，在法律上站得住脚吗？她在文件上写明拥有两处主要住所和抵押贷款文件，这构成法律依据吗？

And from what you can tell based on your reporting, is the president on strong legal footing here in claiming that this is cause to fire her? That writing that she has two primary residences and mortgage documents, is that legal justification?

我们尚不确定，但很快就会知晓，因为丽莎·库克表示她不会辞职，反而正在起诉以保住职位。此事将由法庭裁决。过去24小时我们紧急咨询了法律专家和律师，他们基本认为——特朗普在此事上可能缺乏强有力的法律论据。

So we don't know, but we're gonna find out because Lisa Cook says she's not resigning and, in fact, is suing to hold on to her position. And so this is gonna be decided in a court of law. But we've spent the last twenty four hours frantically calling legal experts and and lawyers trying to understand this. And they say, basically, probably not. Trump probably does not have particularly strong legal argument here.

这涉及她担任美联储理事前的私人行为，尚未经法庭检验。但她现任职务的重要职责之一就是参与制定包括抵押贷款利率在内的利率政策。

This involves private conduct from before she was a fed governor. It hasn't been tested in a court of law. But she now serves in a job where a big part of her role is to help set interest rates that include mortgage rates.

确实。

Right.

因此能看出些关联性。至于法律上是否成立，我们拭目以待。单从观感而言，这确实不太体面。嗯。

So you can see a thread of a connection there. Whether that holds legally, we'll see. Again, certainly, optically, right, it's not a good look. Mhmm.

但如你所说，她决心留任。暂且抛开法律争议，作为研究美联储和美国经济的学者，你对这次解雇事件有何看法——

But as you say, she is determined to stay in this job. So putting the legal debate aside for just a moment, I'm curious as a student of the Fed and the American economy, what you have made of this firing,

这场风波。你本能的第一反应是什么？听着，法律争议自有定论。但我们不该天真地看待此事。

this saga. What has just been your gut reaction to it? So look. We can have the legal debate, the legal debate will play itself out. But I I don't think we should be naive here.

明白吗？这不是一场恰好波及丽莎·库克的抵押贷款欺诈整治行动。而是白宫针对性地寻找董事会成员的把柄，以便总统掌控美联储。这才是本质。

Right? This wasn't a general crackdown on mortgage fraud that happened to catch up Lisa Cook. Right? This was a targeted effort by the White House to find somebody on the board that they could find cause to fire so that the president can take control of the Fed. That's what's going on here.

嗯。

Mhmm.

正如我们多次讨论的，美联储的独立性对美国经济乃至全球金融体系至关重要。而当前这事件，是几十年来对该独立性最直接、最迫切的威胁。

And as you and I have talked about many times, the independence of the Fed is really central to the functioning of The US economy and the global financial system. And this is the clearest, most present danger to that that we've seen in decades.

话虽如此，自本届政府上任以来，我们已经听到了许多末日情景的描绘。关税曾被认为会摧毁美国经济，但这并未真正发生。难道他最终接管美联储后，一切不会反而变得顺利吗？

That said, we have heard a lot of doomsday scenarios articulated since the beginning of this administration. Tariffs were gonna be the ruin of The US economy. That really hasn't come to pass. Isn't it very possible he's gonna eventually take over the Fed and everything's gonna be fun?

迈克尔，你看，我今天来的时候还期待金融市场会有大反应。结果并没有。市场看起来很正常。这也不是第一次我们坐在这里期待市场有大反应却落空了。

I mean, look, Michael, I I came in today waiting for some big reaction in the financial markets. We didn't get it. Markets look fine. And this isn't the first time I think that you and I have sat together ready for a big reaction in the financial markets that did not come.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以市场反应并非全部，对吧？但这确实表明许多投资者并不认为这是迫在眉睫的灾难。如你所说，经济目前大体上还算稳定，不是吗？

So markets aren't everything. Right? But that is an indication that certainly many investors don't think that this is an imminent disaster. And as you say, the economy has so far held up more or less fine. Right?

虽然各地确实存在一些裂痕，但还不至于让我们坠入深渊。嗯。所以未来走向尚不明朗。

There there are cracks here and there. Right? But it's not like we're plunging off a cliff. Mhmm. So we don't know where that heads.

但我认为关键在于，我们拥有可信的数据和具备一定独立性的机构。这类对制度的侵蚀可能不会在今天、明天甚至明年就显现影响——这些制度是经过一代人努力建立的，其衰败的效应也需要时间显现，但这不意味着这些效应不存在。嗯。

But I do think there is something important about the idea that we have data that we can trust, that we have institutions that operate with a measure of independence, and we wouldn't expect to see the impact of these kinds of assaults on those institutions today, tomorrow, even next year. Right? These are things that have taken a generation to build up, and it could take time for the effects of their erosion to show through, but that doesn't mean that those effects are not real. Mhmm.

我在想

I wonder

丽莎·库克教授会如何看待这一切。本，如你所说，她最重要的研究正是关于当人们感到职位不受保障、政府不提供保护时的后果。当前一个无可争议的事实是：为美国政府工作的人正缺乏职业安全感。我很想知道库克教授会如何解读这个现象的潜在影响。

what professor Lisa Cook would think about all of this. Her most important research, Ben, as you said, was around what happens when you don't feel safe and secure in your position, when your government doesn't protect you. One fairly indisputable fact in this moment is that people who work for the United States government don't feel safe and secure in their work. And I wonder what professor Cook would say about the implications of that.

确实。有人向我指出一个讽刺现象：当下对美联储而言，最洞悉美国经济现状的或许正是丽莎·库克博士。这不仅涉及政府员工的恐惧，还包括移民社区群体和其他各类受威胁人群的感受——这些都可能产生真实的经济影响，是美联储制定政策时需要理解的。如果解雇成真，他们将失去丽莎·库克的专业见解来进行这类关键讨论。

Yeah. I mean, a couple of people have made the point to me that there is an irony here that in some ways, the person who has the most insight into this moment in The US economy, at least at the Fed, is doctor Lisa Cook. Not only when it comes to maybe the fear that government employees are feeling, but the fear that people living in The US in some cases are feeling right now, that that people in immigrant communities, that people who feel threatened in different ways, right, may be feeling right now. That could have a real economic impact that the Fed might really like to understand right now as they're setting policy. If this firing goes through, they'll have to have that conversation without the benefit of the expertise of Lisa Cook.

好吧，本，

Well, Ben,

非常感谢。

thank you very much.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

我们很快就能获得多数席位，那将会很棒。

We'll have a majority very shortly, so that'll be great.

在周二的内阁会议上，特朗普总统预测他将很快掌控美联储理事会多数席位，并会利用这一权力降低利率。

During a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, president Trump predicted that he would soon control a majority of the Federal Reserve's board of governors and would use that power to lower interest rates.

一旦我们获得多数席位，房地产市场就会好转，情况会变得很棒。人们支付的利率太高了，这是房地产市场的唯一问题。

Once we have a majority and housing is gonna swing and it's gonna be great, people are paying too high an interest rate. That's the only problem with housing.

他还暗示计划迅速提名接替丽莎·库克的人选，这增加了特朗普可能在库克仍在任且抵制其解雇努力时，就任命其继任者的可能性。我们稍后继续。以下是今日其他要闻：周二，以色列军方表示，其周一针对加沙医院的致命袭击（造成20人死亡，其中5名记者）旨在摧毁据称由哈马斯安装在那里的观察摄像头。但以色列官员未提供相关证据，媒体表示他们经常在同一地点进行加沙报道的直播。

And he suggested that he plans to move quickly to nominate a replacement for Lisa Cook, raising the possibility that Trump may name Cook's successor even as she remains in the job and fights his efforts to fire her. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, the Israeli military said that its deadly attack on a Gaza hospital on Monday, which killed 20 people, five of them journalists, was intended to destroy an observation camera that it claimed had been placed there by Hamas. But Israeli officials provided no evidence for that claim, and media said that they regularly use the same location for live streaming their reports out of Gaza.

全球最大流行巨星与NFL当前最知名球员现已订婚。泰勒·斯威夫特和特拉维斯·凯尔西周二下午向他们的2.88亿粉丝公布了这一消息。

And the world's biggest pop star and the NFL's best known current player are now engaged to be married. In a post to their combined 288,000,000 followers, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce shared the news on Tuesday afternoon.

泰勒·斯威夫特订婚了。泰勒·斯威夫特订婚了。哦，

Taylor Swift is engaged. Taylor Swift is engaged. Oh,

这太轰动了。钻戒巨大无比。太令人兴奋了。

it's huge. The rig is ginormous. This is so exciting.

不，我要吐了。我要吐了。这家伙是谁？耶。

No. I'm gonna throw up. I'm gonna throw up. Who's this guy? Yay.

引发全国各地的反响

Drawing reactions from across the country

好吧，我祝他好运连连。

Well, I wish him a lot of luck.

甚至白宫也参与其中。

And even from the White House.

球员。我认为他是个很棒的人，她也非常出色。所以我衷心祝愿他们好运。

Player. I think he's a great guy, and I think that she's a terrific person. So I wish them a lot of luck.

这段恋情自两年前开始就被狂热记录，吸引了泰勒·斯威夫特的粉丝们，她的歌词详细描述了她感情生活的起伏，有时细节丰富到令人惊叹。今天的节目由埃里克·克鲁普克、罗布·齐普科和穆吉·扎伊迪制作，罗谢尔·班贾协助完成，由莉兹·O·巴林编辑，苏珊·李提供研究支持，阿丽莎·莫克斯利负责技术工程。《每日》节目到此结束。

Their romance has been obsessively chronicled since it began two years ago and has fascinated fans of Swift, whose song lyrics have detailed the ups and downs of her love life and at times extraordinary levels of detail. Today's episode was produced by Eric Krupke, Rob Zipko, and Mooj Zaidy with help from Rochelle Banja. It was edited by Liz O. Balin, contains research help from Susan Lee, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. That's it for The Daily.

我是迈克尔·比尔巴拉。

I'm Michael Bilbara.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.