特朗普想改变我们的投票方式。他会成功吗？

在意大利与贝尔蒙德共度生活。

Life in Italy with Belmond.

我们于五月在阿马尔菲海岸的卡鲁索酒店结婚。

We got married at Hotel Caruso in May on the Amalfi Coast.

婚礼当天，我吃早餐时向外望去，能看到橄榄树，那里正是我们晚宴将要举行的地方。

On the wedding day, looking out as I ate breakfast, I could see the olive trees where our dinner would later happen.

我能听到鸟儿在鸣叫。

I could hear the birds chirping.

我能听到钢琴师在练习。

I could hear our pianists practicing.

我几乎听不到其他任何声音。

I could hear almost nothing else.

发现一种全新的旅行节奏。

Discover a new pace of travel.

了解更多故事，请访问 nytimes.com/belmont/life in Italy。

Read more stories at nytimes.com/belmont/life in Italy.

来自《纽约时报》，我是蕾切尔·阿布拉姆斯，这里是《每日新闻》。

From The New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily.

本周，参议院正在讨论《拯救美国法案》。

This week, the Senate is debating the SAVE AMERICA Act.

我们要拯救美国。

We're gonna save America.

《拯救美国》。

The SAVE AMERICA.

他们怎么跟我们斗？

How can they fight us?

《拯救美国法案》。

The SAVE AMERICA Act.

这项法案可能彻底改变投票资格，而特朗普总统称这是他的首要任务。

A bill that could overhaul who gets to vote and that President Trump has called his number one priority.

他们必须完成这件事，因为如果我们不完成，哪怕花六个月，我也反对批准任何其他事项。

They have to get it done because if we don't get this done, I'm for if it takes you six months, I'm for not approving anything.

我反对批准任何事情。

I'm for not approving anything.

我认为在这一项获得批准之前，我们不应该批准任何事情。

I don't think we should approve anything until this is approved.

今天，我与我的同事戈尔讨论这项法案，以及为什么一些共和党人反对总统以阻止该法案，还有尼古·科拉萨尼蒂，他谈到了政府在该法案失败与否的情况下，试图重塑选举制度的其他计划。

Today, I speak with my colleagues, Gold, about the bill and why some Republicans are standing against the president to block it, and Nick Corasaniti about the administration's other plans to try and reshape the electoral process whether or not the bill fails.

今天是3月20日，星期五。

It's Friday, March 20.

迈克尔·戈尔，欢迎再次做客《每日新闻》。

Michael Gold, welcome back to The Daily.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

我很感谢你能在国会大厦里，身后挂着国会大厦的照片的情况下接受我们的采访。

I appreciate that you're talking to us in the Capitol with a picture of the Capitol behind you.

你是在录音棚里吗？

Are you in a sound booth or something?

我坐在一个隔音棚里，背后挂着首都的图片，这样我就永远不会忘记自己身在何处，而在这个建筑里，这一点至关重要。

I'm in a sound booth with a picture of the capital so that I never forget where I am, which in this building is not insignificant.

这里地方挺大的。

It's pretty big around here.

现在是周四下午两点三十分。

So it's 02:30 on Thursday afternoon.

你之所以在国会大厦，是因为你一整天都在报道关于《拯救美国法案》的审议工作，我们预计这项法案将在未来几天内由参议院进行投票。

And the reason you are at the Capitol is that you've spent all day so far covering the deliberations over the SAVE America Act, which we expect to be voted on in the Senate at some point in the coming days.

你能先简单描述一下《拯救美国法案》究竟是什么，以及它将产生什么影响吗？

Can you just start by describing what the SAVE America Act actually is and what it would do?

《拯救美国法案》是一项由特朗普总统大力推动的重大选举法案。

So the SAVE America Act is this big elections bill that president Trump has been pushing for.

它包含几项基本条款，全都围绕总统对选民身份验证和选民登记的要求。

And it has a few basic provisions, all of which follow what the president is looking for on voter identification and voter registration.

该法案将要求选民在登记投票时提供美国公民身份证明。

So the bill would require people show proof of American citizenship when they register to vote.

是的

Mhmm.

它要求选民在投票时出示带照片的身份证件。

It would require that you show a photo ID at the polls when you go to vote.

它要求各州将选民名册提交给国土安全部。

It would require states turn over their voter rolls to the Department of Homeland Security.

以便国土安全部能够排查可能登记的非公民。

And that's so that the Homeland Security Department can look for noncitizens who might be registered.

它将广泛禁止邮寄投票，仅保留少数例外情况。

It would broadly ban mail in voting with a few narrow exceptions.

然后，总统额外增加了两项与投票或选民权利无关的条款。

And then the president tacked on two provisions that have nothing to do with voting or voter rights.

其中一项限制跨性别儿童的医疗护理，另一项实质上禁止跨性别女性和女孩参与女子体育赛事。

One of those would restrict medical care for transgender children, and the other one would essentially ban transgender women and girls from taking part in women and girls sports.

总统表示，这项法案是他的首要任务。

And the president has said that this bill is his top priority.

他希望通过一项包含所有这些内容的法案，并已告知国会，除非通过该法案，否则他不会签署任何其他立法。

He wants a bill that includes all of these things, and he has told Congress that he will not sign any other pieces of legislation unless they pass that bill.

他明确表示，如果议员们不支持这项法案并推动其通过，他将撤回对他们的支持。

And he's made it clear that he's gonna withhold his endorsement from lawmakers if they don't back this bill and push to get it done.

你如何理解，为什么SAVE美国法案的其他内容对总统如此重要？

What is your understanding of why the SAVE America Act, the rest of it, is so important to the president?

因为显然，他不断重复声称2020年大选被窃取，但他确实在2024年重返了办公室。

Because, obviously, he keeps repeating the claim that the twenty twenty election was stolen, but he did obviously get back into office in 2024.

那么，为什么这些选举问题仍然是他如此关注的重点？

Like, why are these election issues something that he is still so focused on?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，如果我们讨论这项法案，就需要跳出华盛顿的框架，从更大的视角来看——今年11月将举行中期选举。

I think if we're talking about this bill, we need to really zoom out of Washington and look at the bigger picture, which is that there are going to be midterm elections in November.

而国会的控制权实际上正处于争夺之中。

And the control of Congress is up for grabs, essentially.

当然。

Of course.

共和党人正在查看民调，显示风向有利于民主党。

And Republicans are looking at polling that shows that the wind is at Democrats' backs.

传统上，我们看到总统所在政党在中期选举中失去权力。

Traditionally, we've seen the president's party lose power in the midterm elections.

我认为特朗普知道这一点。

I think Trump knows that.

他甚至在上周共和党众议员的大型会议上表示，他认为中期选举的命运取决于他们通过这项法案的能力。

And he even told House Republicans at their big meeting last week that he believes that the fate of the midterms hinges on their ability to pass this bill.

为什么呢？

And why is that?

在特朗普总统看来，这项法案究竟会给共和党带来什么优势？

What about this bill would actually give Republicans the upper hand in president Trump's mind?

总统一直声称，这项法案是必要的，因为民主党赢得选举的唯一方式就是操纵选举。

So the contention that the president's been making is that this is a necessary bill because the only way that Democrats can win elections is by rigging them.

而且我要明确一下，特朗普声称民主党在选举中作弊没有任何证据，但这就是他一直在做的说法。

And again, I wanna be clear, there's no evidence for Trump's claim that Democrats are cheating on elections, but this is the claim he's been making.

这是他近年来试图让人们对选举结果产生怀疑的更大努力的一部分，尤其是当这些选举结果对他及其政党不利时。

And it's part of a larger effort that he's undergone in recent years to instill doubt about the outcome of elections that he and his party don't win.

所以听起来，这不仅关乎法案本身的内容，也关乎总统希望展现的选举形象。

So it sounds like it's just as much about what's actually in the bill as it is about the optics that the president wants to be able to portray about the election.

我认为这是正确的。

I think that's correct.

我认为重要的是要记住，随着特朗普和共和党不断谈论这项法案，其中一部分意图就是让选民对11月他们投出的选票是否会被公平计数产生疑问。

I think it's important to remember that as president Trump and Republicans keep talking about this bill, part of the idea is to raise questions in the mind of voters about whether the votes that they're gonna take in November are gonna be fairly counted.

但我认为总统策略的另一个关键部分，是试图让民主党处于守势，迫使他们解释为何反对身份验证，解释为何反对总统所称的这些常识性投票限制措施。

But I think another key part of the president's strategy here is to try and put Democrats on the defensive and force them to explain why they oppose voter identification, force them to explain why they oppose some of these voter restrictions that the president portrays as common sense ideas.

是的。

Mhmm.

并迫使他们在诸如跨性别条款等议题上投出艰难的票，而民调显示，选民在这些议题上更信任共和党。

And to force them to take difficult votes on things like these transgender provisions, where polls show that voters trust Republicans more on these kinds of issues.

他想让他们处于被动地位。

He wants to put them on their back foot.

他想让他们处于被动地位。

He wants to put them on the back foot.

尤其是在选举前夕，我认为两党都在努力争取任何可能的优势。

And especially ahead of an election, I think both parties are trying to seek any edge they can get.

而这是总统认为自己占据优势的一个领域。

And this is one area where the president thinks that he has the advantage.

好的。

Okay.

所以如你所言，这笔支出是总统的重中之重。

So as you've explained, the spill is a huge priority for the president.

值得注意的是，总统在很大程度上如愿以偿地从国会获得了他想要的东西，或者至少他在第二任期的经历表明，国会中的共和党人并没有阻挠他。

And the president, it's worth noting, has largely enjoyed getting what he wants from congress, or at least his experience in the second term has been that congressional Republicans do not stand in his way.

对吧？

Right?

但这次不一样。

But this time is different.

解释一下为什么以及怎么不一样。

Explain why and also how.

是的。

Yeah.

确实不一样。

It is different.

你在这方面说得对。

You're definitely right about that.

而且确实可以说，本届任期中，总统成功地推动了多项优先事项通过国会。

And it is correct to say that this term, the president has really been able to muscle his priorities through congress.

国会给予了他很大的自由度来推进他所做的事情。

They've given him wide latitude to do a lot of the things that he's doing.

在众议院，SAVE美国法案就是这种情况。

And in the House, that was the case with the SAVE America Act.

众议院以党派投票的方式通过了这项法案，并将其送交参议院。

The House, on a party line vote, pushed through this bill, and they sent it over to the Senate.

问题是，在参议院，要推进这项法案，必须克服阻挠议事程序。

The problem is that in the Senate, to advance this bill, you need to overcome the filibuster.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这意味着任何法案要推进都需要60票的支持。

So that means that you need 60 votes for any bill to move ahead.

由于参议院的席位分布，共和党仅拥有53个席位，因此没有民主党支持，他们无法通过这项法案。

And because of the math of the Senate, where Republicans only hold 53 seats, they can't pass this bill without the support of Democrats.

而他们以多数票通过的唯一办法，就是废除阻挠议事程序。

And the only option they have to do this on a majority vote would be to get rid of the filibuster.

对于那些不天天关注参议院程序、也不住在国会山的人——比如你，迈克尔·戈尔——阻挠议事是什么意思？废除它又意味着什么？

And for those of us who do not live and breathe Senate procedure and are not currently based on Capitol Hill, such as you, Michael Gold, What is the filibuster, and what does it mean to do away with it?

是的。

Yes.

非常好的问题，我经常被问到这个问题。

A great question, and one that I have to answer a lot.

参议院的阻挠议事规则设计得如此明确，所有人都知道通过一项法案需要60票。

So the filibuster is set up in such a way that everyone knows that you need these 60 votes to move a bill along.

因此，如果议员们知道他们没有60票来推动法案进入下一阶段，他们通常就不会将任何议案提交到议席进行投票或辩论。

And so lawmakers tend not to bring anything to the floor for a vote or for a debate if they know that they don't have 60 votes to move it on to the next step.

取消阻挠议事意味着修改参议院的规则，使所有事项都可以通过简单多数票通过。

Now getting rid of the filibuster would mean changing the rules of the Senate so that you can do everything on a simple majority vote.

但许多参议员，包括共和党参议员，都非常反对取消阻挠议事。

But a lot of senators, including Republican senators, are really opposed to getting rid of the filibuster.

为什么呢？

Why?

不妨这样想。

Well, think about it like this.

如果你做任何事情都需要60票，那就赋予了每位参议员很大的权力。

If you need 60 votes to do anything, that gives individual senators a lot of power.

如果你从一个基本观点出发，即许多民主党人会反对共和党的法案，而许多共和党人也会反对民主党的法案，那么参议员们就有动力去寻求妥协。

If you kinda start with the basic idea that a lot of Democrats are gonna oppose a Republican bill and a lot of Republicans are gonna oppose a Democrat bill, there's incentive for individual senators to try to work out compromises.

是的。

Mhmm.

因此，如果你是一位希望为本州争取利益的温和派参议员，想要对某项立法产生具体影响，你可以做到，因为你的投票至关重要。

And so if you're a moderate senator who wants to get something for your state, if you wanna have a very specific influence on a piece of legislation, you can do that because your vote is really critical.

但也有一些立场强硬的共和党参议员希望废除阻挠议事规则，更倾向于实行多数决。

And so there are a number of hardline Republican senators who wanna get rid of the filibuster and would rather see majority rule.

但另一些更注重制度的参议员则不这么认为，其中包括现任参议院多数党领袖、南达科他州共和党人约翰·图恩，他之所以能当选，部分原因是他承诺维护参议院的制度价值和制度思维。

But a number of others who are more institutionally minded don't, and that includes senator John Thune, the South Dakota Republican, who's currently the majority leader, and who got his job in part by promising to uphold the Senate's kind of institutional value and its institutional mindset.

所以这实际上已成为参议院共和党人的一次考验。

So it basically this has become a test for Senate Republicans.

对吧？

Right?

尤其是参议院多数党领袖，纽约的——因为他们面临的选择是：要么向特朗普总统低头，满足他的要求，推动《拯救美国法案》通过；要么捍卫阻挠议事规则，从而维护参议院内寻求妥协的激励机制，实际上阻止这项对一位有着随时抛弃不忠盟友历史的总统至关重要的法案。

And in particular, the Senate majority leader, The New York because the choice they have is either bow down to president Trump, give him what he wants, push the SAVE America Act through, or defend the filibuster, and by extension, the incentive to compromise in the senate and effectively block this piece of legislation that is so important to a president who has a history of defenestrating allies at the slightest hint of disloyalty.

是的

Yeah.

这对参议院共和党人来说是一个非常棘手的时刻，对约翰·图恩来说也是如此。

This is a really tricky moment for Senate Republicans, and it is a very tricky moment for John Thune.

他必须顺应党内许多不愿改变议事阻挠规则的成员的意愿。

He has to kind of follow the will of a lot of the members of his caucus who do not wanna see the filibuster changed.

同时，总统具有很大的影响力。

At the same time, the president is very influential.

他在共和党基本盘中拥有很强的号召力。

He holds a lot of sway among the Republican base.

因此，他不仅面临来自党内部分成员的压力，还承受着来自外部的巨大压力。

And so he's getting a lot of pressure, not just from some of his own members, but a lot of pressure from outside.

他现在正站在十字路口，必须决定如何应对《拯救美国法案》。

And he's sort of faced at this crossroads of trying to decide how he's gonna deal with the SAVE America Act.

好的。

Okay.

那么《纽约时报》怎么做？

So what does The New York do?

所以蒂尼去说服他的议员们。

So The New goes to his members.

他进行了很多对话。

He has a lot of conversations.

最终，他意识到根本没有人愿意废除阻挠议事规则。

And eventually, he realizes that there's just no will for getting rid of the filibuster.

他们根本做不到这一点。

There's no way for them to do it.

但他知道总统希望就这个问题进行投票。

But he knows that the president wants to see a vote on this.

于是他说，好吧。

And so he says, okay.

我们将把这个法案提交到议院表决。

We're gonna bring this bill to the floor.

我们将就这个问题进行长时间的辩论。

We're gonna have a long debate on it.

我们会上台阐述我们的观点。

We're gonna come and make our points.

我们会迫使民主党人出来为他们的立场辩护。

We're gonna force the Democrats to come and defend their points.

我们会连续进行好几天。

We're gonna do this for days.

尽管每个人都知道这无法突破冗长辩论的阻碍，但他希望进行投票，而且他们希望确保每个人对《拯救美国法案》的立场都有明确记录。

And even though everyone knows that it won't overcome the filibuster, he wants to have a vote, and they wanna make sure that everybody has recorded their position on the SAVE America Act.

而且可以想象，他想捕捉一些民主党人处于防守状态的精彩片段，对吧？他们正在就这个问题展开辩论。

And presumably, he wants to get some compelling sound bites of Democrats on the defense, right, debating this.

这正是我们在参议院议事厅开始看到的情形——一场纯粹做给外界看的辩论。

And that's what we have started to see play out on the Senate floor, a debate that is basically just for show.

差不多就是这样。

More or less.

但与此同时，他希望这场参议院辩论能缓解一些压力。

But in the meantime, he's hoping that this will release some of the pressure by having this debate on the floor.

大家下午好。

Good afternoon, everyone.

我想大家都知道，我们期待本周在参议院展开一场重要的辩论。

I think as everybody knows, we are, looking forward to having an important battle on the floor of the Senate this week.

因此，在过去几天里，SAVE美国法案基本上成了参议院唯一讨论的议题。

And so for the last few days, the SAVE America Act has been the only thing, basically, that the Senate has debated.

主席先生，我今天起身表示支持SAVE美国法案。

Mister president, I rise today to say I support the SAVE America Act.

我们从这些民主党人那里听到的，全是制造恐慌和赤裸裸的谎言。

And what we've heard from these Democrats here is nothing but fearmongering and outright lies.

听听民主党人怎么说。

Listen to the Democrats talk.

他们觉得这没什么。

They think it's fine.

让任何非法移民投票。

Let any illegal immigrant vote.

要求出示照片身份证才能投票是基本常识。

Requiring a photo ID to vote is just common sense.

嘿，就连借图书馆借书证都需要出示照片身份证。

Heck, if you wanna get a library card, you have to show a photo ID.

我们已经看到共和党人像总统一样，就选民欺诈问题提出相同的论点，声称民主党可能操纵选举。

And we've seen Republicans make the same argument as the president about voter fraud, about the idea that Democrats might be rigging elections.

这项法案实际上是一部压制选民的法案。

What this bill is is a voter suppression bill.

这是一部清除选民的法案。

It's a voter purging bill.

民主党人反对这项法案，认为SAVE美国法案本质上就是选民压制。

And Democrats have objected to the bill by arguing that the SAVE America Act basically amounts to voter suppression.

我们知道这将使成千上万，甚至数百万美国人失去投票权。

We know that this will disenfranchise thousands, if not millions, of Americans.

这不仅仅是一张普通的选民身份证法案。

This is not an ordinary voter ID bill.

这是一种阻止美国公民投票的手段。

This is a way to keep American citizens from voting.

而且我

And I

他们引用了研究结果，表明数百万美国人没有投票或登记投票所需的文件。

And they're citing studies that show that millions of Americans don't have the documents they need to be able to vote or to register to vote.

他们还指出，这数百万美国人并不整齐地归属于某一政党，这项法律不仅会伤害共和党选民，也会伤害民主党选民。

And one thing that they're also pointing out is that those millions of Americans don't neatly follow one party or the other, that this law would hurt Republican voters, and it would hurt Democrat voters as well.

如果共和党人想浪费参议院的时间来辩论这项法案，那就随他们吧。

If Republicans want to waste the Senate's time debating this bill, so be it.

我们会继续辩论下去。

We will continue to debate it.

这是规则允许参议员和纽约参议员所做的。

That's what the rules allow the senators and senator The York to do.

但我们将继续揭露。

But we will continue to expose.

这完全是胡说八道。

This is a load of nonsense.

所以听起来，共和党人支持《拯救美国法案》的部分原因是为了向总统表明忠诚。

So it sounds like part of the reason why Republicans might support the SAVE America Act is about showing fealty to the president.

对吧？

Right?

证实他关于选举欺诈的主张，认为这是一个重大问题，而不是有确凿证据表明这实际上能帮助他们在中期选举中获胜。

Validating his claims of voter fraud, that this is a big issue, as opposed to concrete clear evidence that it would actually help them in the midterms.

我觉得这是对的。

I think that's right.

而且我认为，他们有一种感觉，认为总统的优先事项是目前最重要的。

And I think there's a sense in which they think that the president's priority is the most important thing right now.

所以，鉴于你所列出的所有情况，迈克尔，这项法案在参议院通过的可能性有多大？

So given everything that you've laid out, Michael, is there any chance that this bill is gonna pass in the Senate?

我会说不会。

I would say no.

过去发生过更奇怪的事，但我从不轻易对参议院的预测使用绝对化的说法。

Stranger things have happened, and I'm never in the business of absolutes when it comes to predicting the Senate.

但支持的票数还不够。

But the numbers aren't there.

民主党人对此持一致反对态度。

Democrats are unified against it.

参议院的阻挠议事规则短期内不会改变。

The filibuster isn't changing anytime soon.

所以每次他们就这项法案投票时，似乎都注定会失败。

So whenever they vote on this, it seems destined to fail.

迈克尔，我忍不住想，总统会如何看待图恩提出的这种妥协——至少先进行辩论，而不是强行推进这项法案？

Michael, I can't help but wonder though how the president is gonna view this sort of compromise that Thune is proposing, right, of at least having a debate of not pushing this through.

考虑到总统已经明确表示，这是他的首要任务。

Given the fact that the president has made it clear this is his number one priority.

再退一步看，这里有一个更长的故事，关于特朗普总统对其政党的控制。

And just stepping back, there's a longer story here of the president Trump's control over his party.

他一直以来都像是真正的老板。

He has enjoyed basically being the boss.

而这次似乎是一个罕见的时刻，一些共和党人站出来对他说‘不’。

And this seems to be a rare moment of some Republicans standing up to him and saying, no.

这里真正重要的事情，远不止是我们一味地满足你的要求。

There's actually something more important here than just us doing whatever it is you want.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得说得对。

I think that's right.

参议院一直有着独立的传统，而这长期以来让特朗普感到困扰。

And the Senate has always had this independent streak, and it's something that has long bedeviled Trump.

这在他第一个任期内就是个大问题。

It was a real issue for him in his first term.

许多参议员正在展望未来，当特朗普不再是总统时，他们思考自己希望参议院成为什么样子，以及希望参议院如何运作。

And a lot of senators are looking to the future when Trump won't be president and thinking about what they want the Senate to be and how they want the Senate to function.

尤其是在他们不再掌握主导权的世界里。

Especially in a world where they're not in charge anymore.

他们不想把立法大权交给民主党，任其推动法律而不加制约。

They don't wanna hand Democrats the reins to push through laws without them.

因此，我认为你所看到的是，许多共和党参议员正试图站出来表明：参议院是有意义的。

And so I think what you're seeing is a lot of these Republican senators really trying to take a stand here and say, the Senate means something.

立法机构是有意义的，我们不能任由你肆意践踏它。

The legislative branch means something, and we can't just let you trample all over it.

他们想象着一个特朗普不再永远是总统的世界。

They're imagining a world where president Trump is not president Trump forever.

没错。

That's right.

presumably，他在2028年大选后将不再担任总统。

Presumably, he will not be president after the twenty twenty eight election.

因此，他们必须思考那之后自己的工作会是什么样子。

And so they have to think about what their jobs are gonna be after that.

同时，特朗普已明确表示，他不会放弃这个问题。

At the same time, Trump has made it clear that he's not letting go of this issue.

我们看到的是，他和政府内的盟友正在寻找方法，以实现类似的目标，改变今年十一月即将举行的选举。

And what we're seeing is he and his allies in the administration are looking to ways that they can achieve similar goals to alter the elections that are coming this November.

迈克尔·戈尔德，非常感谢你。

Michael Gold, thank you so much.

谢谢，蕾切尔。

Thanks, Rachel.

广告后，我的同事尼古·科拉萨尼蒂将解释特朗普政府的其他计划，这些计划无论SAVE美国法案是否失败，都可能重塑美国选举。

After the break, my colleague, Nick Corasaniti, explains other plans from the Trump administration that could reshape American elections regardless of whether the SAVE America Act fails.

我是罗宾，我非常兴奋地打开我的跨性别扮演应用。

I'm Robin, and I am excited to open my Crossplay app.

我正在挑战我的《纽约时报》同事约翰。

I'm challenging John, my colleague at The New York Times.

罗宾玩了单词‘grunge’，其中包含字母g，值四分。

Robin played the word grunge, which has a g, which is four points.

她触发了三倍单词分值。

She got that triple word multiplier.

我要把‘facts’改成‘faxes’，拿30分。

I'm going to take facts and make it faxes for 30 points.

我可能会再用一个两个字母的词，比如‘woah’，这样我能得23分。

I might just take another two letter word here with woah, gets me at 23.

我觉得如果我的计算没错，这能让我重新领先。

I think this will put me back in the lead if my maths are mathing.

我更喜欢从策略角度出发，看看怎么阻止对手获得高分。

I like to play it more from a strategic point of view and see where I can block the other player from scoring high.

我很有竞争心。

I'm pretty competitive.

击败朋友和同事很有趣，还能学到新单词。

It's fun to beat friends and coworkers and also get to learn new words.

Crossplay，纽约时报游戏推出的首款双人文字游戏。

Crossplay, the first two player word game from New York Times games.

今天免费下载吧。

Download it for free today.

我觉得他以为自己稳赢了，但我并不这么确定。

I think he thinks he has this in the bag, but I'm not so sure.

尼克，我们的同事迈克尔·戈尔德刚刚告诉我们，总统已誓言要在SAVE美国法案看起来几乎肯定要失败的情况下，推动其部分内容通过。

Nick, our colleague Michael Gold just told us that the president has vowed to push through elements of the SAVE America Act now that it looks like it's almost certainly going to fail.

你最近的报道重点聚焦于这些努力以及更广泛的选举公正性问题。

You focused a lot of your recent reporting on those efforts and on election integrity more broadly.

那么，当总统谈到他想保留并以其他方式推动的SAVE美国法案部分时，他具体指的是什么？

So what is the president talking about when he's talking about the parts of the SAVE America Act that he wants to preserve and push through in another way?

SAVE美国法案是政府为根据特朗普总统的意愿重塑美国选举而采取的多管齐下策略中的关键一环。

So the SAVE America Act is kind of a a key part of a multipronged approach that the administration is bringing to try and remake American elections according to president Trump's will.

尽管这场主要战斗正在国会展开，但幕后已酝酿了大量动作。

And while that's the main battle happening on the hill, there's been a lot that's been percolating in the background.

总统一直在利用其政府内的不同机构，干预或开始调查选举过程的各个部分。

The president has been using, you know, different agencies within his administration to intrude or start to investigate different parts of the electoral process.

对。

Right.

在选举过程方面，我们应该指出，总统一再谎称2020年大选被窃取。

And when it comes to the electoral process, we should point out that the president has repeatedly lied about the twenty twenty election, specifically that it was stolen.

而现在，他正以多种方式试图影响2026年的中期选举。

And now he is seeking to influence the twenty twenty six midterms in different ways.

正因如此，我想指出，目前社会上对选举干预存在诸多担忧。

And this is where I'd like to acknowledge that there are so many fears out there about election interference.

我听过不少猜测。

And I've heard plenty of theories.

我相信你也听过各种各样的说法。

I'm sure you've heard all kinds of theories.

我认为，人们很难判断自己的担忧在‘可能’到‘完全不可能、荒谬离谱’之间处于哪个位置。

And I think it's very hard for people to know where their fears fall on the scale of possible to totally unlikely and ridiculous and outlandish.

所以在那些既可怕又有可能的交集部分，到底是哪一块呢？

And so I wonder on the Venn diagram of scary and likely, section?

哪些事情才是真正值得讨论的？

What is actually worth talking about?

我认为，开始这些讨论时，重要的是先看看联邦政府实际做了什么，采取了哪些行动，然后基于他们已经做过的事情，来理解他们可能走向何方。

So I think it's important to to start these conversations looking at what the federal government has actually done, what actions have they taken, and then understand where they could go based on what they've already done.

是的。

Mhmm.

联邦政府目前已经着手几个方面。

And there's a few buckets here that the federal government has started on.

根据全国各地选举专家告诉我的信息，最紧迫的是联邦调查局对2020年大选展开的调查。

And the most pressing, at least from what election experts across the country have told me, are these FBI investigations into the twenty twenty elections.

到目前为止，联邦调查局已经突袭了佐治亚州富尔顿县的一个选举仓库，并没收了与2020年大选相关的选票。

And what that's looked like so far is the FBI raided an election warehouse in Fulton County, Georgia, and they took ballots related to the twenty twenty election.

这是一项相当前所未有的举措。

This was a pretty unprecedented move.

没错。

That's right.

今年早些时候，我们在节目中讨论过这件事。

We talked about that on the show earlier this year.

不仅这次突袭非同寻常，而且我们还了解到，国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德实际上牵线搭桥，安排了联邦调查局人员与特朗普总统之间的电话通话，这完全是前所未有的。

And not only was the raid unusual, but Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, we learned had actually brokered a phone call between the FBI agents involved and president Trump, and that is totally unusual.

正是如此。

That's exactly right.

接着，他们向亚利桑那州马里科帕县——最大的县—— subpoenaed 了选举材料。

And then they subpoenaed election materials from Maricopa County in Arizona, the biggest county.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但总统的盟友继续将这一行动进一步推进。

But then allies of the president have continued to push that effort further.

在密歇根州，我们报道过，当地的选举活动人士从底特律获取了选票和其他选举材料，底特律是关键摇摆州中的另一个民主党的重镇。

In Michigan, we reported that election activists there obtained copies of ballots and other election materials from Detroit, another democratic powerhouse in a key swing state.

这些调查的目的是什么？

And what would the point of those investigations be?

比如，FBI获取2020年选举信息能获得什么好处？这和2026年有什么关系？

Like, what does the FBI gain from getting access to information from the twenty twenty election, and what does that have to do with potentially 2026?

这里其实有两个目标。

There's kind of two goals here.

第一个是为总统关于2020年选举的诸多虚假和毫无根据的指控，披上一层合法性的外衣。

The first is adding, like, a veneer of legitimacy to the many false and baseless claims that the president's made about the twenty twenty election.

但这也可能对2026年的选举产生重大影响。

But it could also kind of significantly impact the twenty twenty six elections.

而正是在这里，我听到选举专家们表达了极大的担忧和恐惧。

And this is where I hear so much fear and worrying from election experts.

这些调查，无论是否真实，都可能产生报告或声称，指出这些关键地区在选举运作中存在错误、不当行为或问题。

These investigations, whether it's real or not, could produce reports or claims that there were errors, malfeasance, problems with the running of elections in these critical areas.

然后，这可能成为联邦政府采取进一步行动的借口。

And then that could be a justification for further action from the federal government.

还有什么进一步的行动？

Further action like?

所以这可能有几种形式。

So it could take a couple forms.

我认为我们可以看看特朗普总统迄今为止的言论。

And I think we can just look at what president Trump has said so far.

今年早些时候，他在接受《纽约时报》采访时说，他后悔没有让国民警卫队在2020年大选中没收投票机。

In an interview with the Times earlier this year, he said he regretted not having the National Guard seize voting machines in the twenty twenty election.

他还表示，他希望将选举联邦化，并希望共和党接管选举。

He has also said that he wants to nationalize elections and that he wants Republicans to take over elections.

而在最坏的情况下，你可能会看到总统指令联邦政府的任何部门干预选举，没收投票机和选票，所有关于选举的信任和最佳实践都将荡然无存。

And, you know, in a worst case scenario, you could see the president directing any arm of the federal government to intrude in an election, seize machines, seize ballots, and all trust and best practices about the election would be out the window.

但这些联邦调查背后还有一个根本性的担忧，那就是它们发起的依据本身。

But there's an underlying worry that comes with these FBI investigations, and that's the very grounds on which they were brought.

当富尔顿县的宣誓书被公开时，我们看到大量已被证伪的指控和阴谋论被用作进入并没收选票的理由，而法官竟然批准了这些理由。

So when the affidavit was unsealed in Fulton County, we see that there was a host of disproven claims and conspiracy theories that served as the justification for going in and taking these ballots, and a judge signed off on them.

我接触过一些选举律师，他们对 FBI 为了拿走这些选票竟然只需要这么低的标准感到非常困惑。

And so there's been electional lawyers who I've spoken to who were just baffled that this was the bar that was needed for the FBI to go and take these ballots.

他们担心，这种标准在可能发生的中期选举干预中也可能同样低。

And they worry that the bar could be just as low for a possible intrusion into the midterms.

我们现在所处的世界有一件不同寻常的事是：虽然我们在讨论假设情况，但我们也正在面对一个在特朗普第二任期中表现出高度顺从甚至配合政府要求和议程的联邦调查局和司法系统。

One of the things that feels sort of different about the world that we're living in now is that while we're talking about hypotheticals, we are also talking about an FBI and a judiciary that in the second Trump administration, we have seen been quite acquiescent and at times compliant with the administration's demands or agenda.

因此，我可以想象，这加剧了人们对这种干预是否可能发生在像底特律这样对中期选举至关重要的地区的担忧。

And so I can imagine that that is adding fuel to the concerns about whether this kind of intrusion could occur in a place like, I don't know, Detroit or just some other area that is really pivotal to an election, to the midterms.

说得完全正确。

That's exactly right.

造成这种不安的主要原因是，本届政府充斥着大量愿意配合总统诸多行动的盟友。

What's fueling so much of this unease is that this administration is staffed with so many allies of the president who are willing to go along with a lot of his efforts.

如果我们看看选举领域，联邦政府这些关键职位的领导人，比如总检察长帕姆·邦迪，他们在2020年时还在政府之外，但当时就站在总统一边，支持他推翻选举结果的努力。

And if we look at the election space, so much of the leaders of these levers of the federal government, people like attorney general Pam Bondi, they were outside the government in 2020, but they were standing with the president in his efforts to overturn that election.

现在，他们已经进入政府内部了。

Now they're inside the administration.

他们才是掌握这些权力杠杆的人。

They're the ones who will be pulling those levers of power.

我认为，这正是让许多选举专家、民主党人，甚至我接触过的共和党人觉得这些假设变得更为真实的原因。

And I think that is part of what's making so many of these hypotheticals feel a little bit more real to election experts, Democrats, even Republicans that that I've talked to.

好的。

Okay.

你刚才描述的关于联邦调查局和司法部的情况，我认为这是其中一个担忧方面。

So what you have just described about the FBI, the DOJ, that I think is one bucket of concern.

对吧？

Right?

你认为我们还应该关注哪些其他方面的担忧？

What is the next bucket of concerns that you think we should be paying attention to?

联邦政府正在开展一项前所未有的努力，试图建立一个本质上是全国性的选民名册。

So there is a fairly unprecedented effort by the federal government to create what would essentially be a national voter role.

他们要求获取各州持有的私人选民名册，其中包含社会安全号码和驾照等个人身份信息。

And they're demanding private voter roles, which are kept by states, and they include personal identifiable information like Social Security numbers and driver's licenses.

是的

Mhmm.

他们要求各州州务卿或最高选举官员将整个数据集发送给他们，以建立一个全国选民名册。

They want that entire dataset sent to them by secretaries of state or top election officials to create a national voter roll list.

这是总统声称正在发生的选民欺诈和非公民投票调查的一部分。

And it's part of this investigation into voter fraud and noncitizens voting that the president claims is happening.

事实上，没有任何调查发现存在广泛的选民欺诈或非公民在选举中投票的情况。

In reality, no investigation has found widespread voter fraud nor widespread noncitizens voting in elections.

但理论上，联邦政府声称希望获取这些信息，以便对不该投票的人进行额外核查，这个想法。

But theoretically, though, the idea that the federal government would basically say, we want this information so that we could come up with another check against people who shouldn't be voting voting.

我认为很多人听到后可能会认同。

I think that that's something that a lot of people might hear and kind of be on board with.

对吧？

Right?

我认为大多数美国人都普遍支持投票身份验证要求。

I think most Americans are on board with, like, voter ID requirements in general.

是的

Yeah.

表面上看，这似乎是一个不错的核查机制。

On the surface, it sounds like a good check.

对吧？

Right?

但实际上，它的基础存在严重问题。

But it's actually pretty faulty in its foundations.

任何州的选民名册本质上都是一份动态更新的文件。

A voter roll list in any state is effectively a living document.

人们会去世。

People die.

人们会搬家。

People move.

人们会结婚。

People get married.

人们年满18岁。

People turn 18.

人们年满18岁。

People turn 18.

这会改变他们的选民登记信息。

And that changes their voter registration.

选民名单上的这些变化每时每刻都在发生。

These changes in the voter list are happening every waking second.

联邦政府的努力更像是一个快照，像一张照片。

And the federal government's effort is much more of a snapshot, like a picture.

因此，联邦政府一获得这些信息，它就立刻过时了。

So as soon as the federal government gets this information, it would instantly be out of date.

好的。

Okay.

但可以推测，联邦政府很清楚创建这样的快照存在哪些局限性。

But presumably, the federal government is well aware of the limitations of creating such a snapshot.

他们知道投票是怎么回事。

Like, they know how voting works.

他们知道人们年满18岁就会成为选民，也会有人入籍。

They know people turn 18 and get naturalized.

所以他们会明白，今天的名单明天就可能不准确了。

So they would know that a list today is not a good list for tomorrow.

那么，这样的做法究竟有什么意义呢？

What then is the purpose of something like this?

实际上，这可能有两个目的。

So this is actually probably serving two purposes.

是的。

Mhmm.

第一个目的是进一步调查总统一直坚持的毫无根据的说法——选民名册存在污点，有数百万非公民登记在册，到处都存在其他类型的选举舞弊。

The first is to kind of and further investigate this baseless claim that the president has continued to make, that the voter rolls are dirty, that there's millions of noncitizens on them, that there's other types of voter fraud happening everywhere.

如果你能建立一个全国性的选民名册并进行清理，就能证明这一点。

And if you had a national voter list that could be scrubbed, you'd be able to prove that.

但这些拒绝提供数据的选举官员也十分担忧，这些数据可能被滥用，被操纵或扭曲，以证明那些说法。

But there's also pretty significant concern among these election officials that are refusing to hand over this data that it could be misused, that it could be, you know, kind of manipulated, distorted in a way to kind of prove those claims.

从而为之前提到的更多干预选举行为提供借口，或让政府做出关于中期选举的不实指控，影响选举结果。

And then either serve as justification as we were talking about earlier for more intrusions into elections or allow the government to make claims about the midterms that just aren't true that could impact results.

尼克，我想问问关于一个流传的说法，即动用联邦军队，比如国民警卫队，来监督投票站或在投票站恐吓选民。

Nick, I wanna ask about a theory that's been put out there about using federal troops like the National Guard to somehow police polling stations or intimidate people at polling stations.

这一切在我们之前讨论的维恩图中处于什么位置？

Where does all of that fall in the Venn diagram we talked about?

在这个问题上，法律是非常明确的。

Well, in this one, the law is pretty clear.

联邦法律明确规定，投票站内不得有武装部队存在。

Federal law clearly says that there can be no armed troops in polling places.

对。

Right.

特朗普政府在他们的声明中留下了一些模糊空间。

The Trump administration has left a little ambiguity in their statements.

克里斯蒂·诺埃姆，前国土安全部部长，拒绝排除让移民与海关执法局特工出现在投票站的可能性。

Christy Noem, the former secretary of Homeland Security, you know, refused to rule out having ICE agents at polls.

但你知道，在与选举官员的私下交谈中，一些国土安全部官员表示，我们不会这么做。

But, you know, in private conversations with election officials, some Department of Homeland Security officials have said, we're not gonna do this.

因此，我认为这种担忧即使在有些模糊的情况下，也已被政府回应了。

So that fear, I think, is kind of been answered by the administration even with slight ambiguity.

但我开始更多听到的是，一些州长们的担忧，嗯。

But the fear that I'm starting to hear more from, you know, kinda governors of states Mhmm.

不是这些移民与海关执法局特工会进入投票站。

Isn't that these ICE agents will go into polls.

而是他们会进入城市，或进入民主党的票仓。

It's that they'll go into cities or go into Democratic strongholds.

就像我们在明尼苏达州看到的那样。

Like we've seen in Minnesota.

正是如此。

Exactly that.

问题不在于会有武装的联邦特工在你投票时盯着你。

It's not so much that there will be armed federal agents watching you vote.

而在于城市中的局势可能突然变得不稳定，这可能会对投票产生压制性影响。

It's that the situation in a city could suddenly become unstable, and what suppressive impact that might have on voting.

所以人们确实担心联邦军队。

So there is a concern about federal troops.

但这并不是我所认为的、关于他们出现在投票站现场的最突出的担忧。

It's just not quite the concern that I think is sort of the loudest about them being physically at polling places.

没错。

Exactly.

法律明确禁止武装特工进入投票站，但并没有禁止对城市进行武装巡逻。

There's clear laws prohibiting armed agents in the polls, but there isn't that to have armed patrols of cities.

但我认为值得指出的是，这个政府总是不断挑战法律的边界，采取某种行动后才由法院加以约束。

But I think it's worth pointing out though that this is an administration that pushes the legal limits all the time and after taking some kind of action gets reined in by a court.

尽管法院在2020年曾抵制选举舞弊的指控，但我们已经讨论过，它们在某些情况下也对政府的要求表现得相当顺从。

And while the courts were a bulwark against the claims of election fraud in 2020, We have talked about how they have also been quite compliant in some cases with the administration's demands.