特朗普与普京会晤的利害攸关

这里是《纽约时报》，我是瑞秋·艾布拉姆斯，为您带来《每日新闻》。今天，美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京将在美国阿拉斯加州的安克雷奇首次会晤。他们将讨论结束乌克兰战争的事宜。我与同事大卫·桑格探讨了此次会晤可能产生的广泛影响，以及为何无论结果如何，这次会面都是普京的胜利。今天是8月15日，星期五。

From The New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily. Today, president Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin are meeting on US soil for the first time in Anchorage, Alaska. They'll be discussing an end to the war in Ukraine, and I spoke to my colleague David Sanger about the wide range of possible outcomes and why, no matter what happens, the meeting is a win for Putin. It's Friday, August 15.

大卫，感谢你从阿拉斯加加入我们。你在那边会抽空钓鱼吗？

David, thank you for joining us from Alaska. Are you gonna get any fishing done while you're there?

噢，我倒是想啊瑞秋。但得坦白说，今早在酒店吃早餐时，我旁边坐着个标准阿拉斯加硬汉打扮的家伙，全套渔具傍身。我们聊起洄游鲑鱼正逆流而上的事，最后他问我：'接下来几天去哪儿钓？'我只能老实承认是来报道特朗普-普京峰会的。

Oh, I'd love to, Rachel. But I have to confess that at breakfast this morning at our hotel here, I was sitting next to this guy who, you know, looked like mister Alaska, he had all his gear. And we were talking about the returning salmon that are moving up the rivers. And at the end of it, said, so where are you fishing the next few days? And I had to admit I was here to cover the Trump Putin summit meeting.

他看我的眼神就像在看全世界最可悲的失败者。

And he looked at me like I was the world's greatest loser.

所以你的意思是，在阿拉斯加期间根本没机会钓鱼？

So basically, what you're saying is no fishing while you're in Alaska.

钓鱼？是啊...是啊...（苦笑）

Fishing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

既然到处都是络腮胡渔夫，现在阿拉斯加会前的氛围如何？

Being filled with, bearded fishermen, what is the atmosphere like right now in Alaska ahead of this meeting?

八月的安克雷奇向来人满为患。平时酒店就紧张，现在又突然塞进四年来首次美俄总统峰会。他们连个像样的度假村都找不到。

Anchorage in August is always jammed. Right? No hotels in the best of times. And in the midst of this, they drop the first summit in four years between a president of The United States and the president of Russia. And they couldn't even find a resort to hold it at.

最后选在埃尔门多夫空军基地——那里本就是空军一号和其他政府飞机往返亚洲的中途加油站。

So it's going to be held at the Elmendorf Air Base, which is where Air Force One and other government planes all get refueled on their way to and from Asia.

这次会晤具体要谈什么？有哪些利害关系？

What exactly is on the table here? What are the stakes of this meeting?

这是美国总统和俄罗斯总统首次面对面坐下来讨论如何结束乌克兰战争。你必须承认特朗普总统试图推动谈判以结束这场灾难的努力。不过，当两人坐下来时，没人真正知道结果会如何。最终可能毫无实质进展。正如总统前几天所说，他此行的目的是倾听普京的诉求，理解他的不满。

This is the first time that an American president and a Russian president have sat down face to face to talk about how one might end the war in Ukraine. And you have to give some credit to President Trump for trying to get a negotiation going that would end this horror. That said, no one really knows how this is going to turn out when the two sit down. It could end up being basically nothing. That the President is here to, as he put it the other day, hear Putin out and understand what his grievances are.

或者这可能成为新的雅尔塔会议。1945年二战后的那次会议，丘吉尔、斯大林和罗斯福瓜分了欧洲。如今许多人将雅尔塔视为大国无视小国民众利益需求、肆意划分世界的象征。如果他们开始讨论如何瓜分乌克兰，并向欧洲特别是乌克兰施压接受协议，这将成为重大转折点。

Or this could be Yalta. The nineteen forty five conference after World War II, where Churchill and Stalin and FDR divided up Europe. Many people regard Yalta now as the symbol of great powers ignoring the interests and needs of the people in smaller states and basically carving up the world. And if they start discussing how to slice up Ukraine and pressure Europe and particularly Ukraine to take that deal, this could be a huge turning point.

在我们深入讨论会议细节及后续可能之前，我想指出一个明显反常之处：这明明是讨论俄乌两国结束战争的会议，但谈判室里居然没有任何乌克兰代表在场。

Before we get into all the details of this, what's likely to happen after this meeting specifically, I want to address something that feels like kind of a glaring oddity, which is that this is obviously a meeting about ending a war between two countries, Russia and Ukraine. And nobody from Ukraine is actually in this negotiating room.

确实极不寻常。特朗普总统可能盘算过——或许是对的——如果直接把泽连斯基和普京安排在同个房间，即便有他在场，若缺乏对话框架和协议大纲，只会演变成争吵甚至更糟的局面。

It is a huge oddity. Now president Trump has calculated, maybe correctly, that if you just put Zelensky and Putin in a room together, even with the president there, and you don't have a structure for the conversation, and you don't have some outlines of what the deal is going to look like, it's gonna descend into a shouting match or worse.

大卫，这次会晤究竟是如何促成的？能否简要回顾下这两位领导人的关系？

David, how did this meeting actually come about? And can you remind us a little bit about the relationship between these two men?

瑞秋，别忘了特朗普总统当年作为候选人时，曾承诺能在24小时内结束这场战争。

Well, Rachel, remember that this was the war that president Trump promised as a candidate to end in twenty four hours.

确实如此。

That's right.

他的底气来自自认为与普京长期保持的互相尊重的关系。其核心论点是：普京会听取他的意见，而绝不会这样对待拜登或哈里斯。

On the basis of his relationship, what he viewed as his long and respectful relationship with Putin. And the essence of that argument was he'll listen to me in a way that he would never listen to Joe Biden or to Kamala Harris.

但他就职后做的第一件事，却是向普京做出一系列单方面让步，我...

But once he got into office, the first thing that he did was make a series of unilateral concessions to Putin that I

认为这些举动意在表明他愿意给出优厚条件。

think were intended to sort of indicate he was willing to give him a good deal.

他一开始表现得挺友善的，基本上是这样。

He started out playing nice, basically.

确实如此。

He did.

各位朋友下午好。这是我首次参加乌克兰防御联络小组会议，很荣幸能借此机会分享特朗普总统对乌克兰战争的应对策略。

Well, good afternoon, friends. This is my first Ukraine defense contact group, and I appreciate the opportunity to share president Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine.

首先，他在二月份派出了国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯前往欧洲。

First, he sent his secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, out to Europe in February.

美国认为乌克兰加入北约并非谈判解决的现实结果。

The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.

他还宣称乌克兰在未来多年内都不会加入北约，这违背了美国长期以来的承诺。

And he declared that Ukraine would never become part of NATO in you know, for years to come, something The US had long promised.

现在我们来听听对总统关税计划的反应。财政部长斯科特·贝森加入了我们的讨论。感谢您的到来。

Let's get reaction to the president's tariff plan. Treasury secretary Scott Besson joins us now. Thank you for being here.

好的，很高兴见到你。

Right. Good to see you.

这是重要的一天。总统呼吁

It was a big day. President calls

接着他对俄罗斯商品征收了极低关税，比对几乎所有美国盟友的关税都低。听着，这里既有政策考量，也有利益算计。而且他并未向国会寻求更多武器援助。

And then he put very low tariffs on Russian goods, lower than he put on almost all American allies. Look. There are policy decisions here, but also there's a calculus here. And he did not go to congress looking for more arms.

我们将向他们提供武器，而他们将为此支付费用。我们美国不会承担任何付款。

We are going to be sending them weapons, and they're gonna be paying for them. We The United States will not be having any payment made.

事实上，他的整个策略只是用欧洲代表乌克兰购买的武器来武装乌克兰。

And in fact, his whole strategy has been only arm Ukraine with arms that Europe buys on Ukraine's behalf.

没错。

Right.

所以他费尽心思。而作为回应，瑞秋，他几乎一无所获。这导致他在大约一个月前愤怒地宣布，他与普京进行了愉快的对话，但得到的只有废话——这是他的原话。但在与普京对立后，他突然宣布将举行这次面对面会晤。

So he has gone out of his way. And what he got in response to that, Rachel, was almost nothing. And that's what led him to declare with significant anger about a month ago that he had these nice conversations with Putin, and he got, he said, only bullshit in return. That was his phrase. But after turning against Putin, he suddenly announced that there would be this face to face meeting.

但我们不知道这两人是否真的将此视为谈判的时机，还是试探对方底线的时刻。

But we don't know whether or not the two men actually regard this as a moment to negotiate or a moment to feel out what are the bottom lines for each side.

感觉这两人已经交谈甚多且相识已久，以至于我部分认为，虽然战争在继续，但他们现在难道不清楚彼此的立场吗？他们的历史究竟是怎样的？

It feels like these two men have done enough talking and have known each other for so long that part of me thinks like, sure, the war has progressed, but don't they kind of know where each other stands by now? Like, what is their history exactly?

他们的历史相当复杂，但关系一直紧张。这可以追溯到2017年他们在汉堡大型峰会间隙的首次会面。他们会面并交谈了三次。峰会结束后，总统登上空军一号，在起飞前用手机给我打了电话。

Well, their history is pretty complicated, but it's always been a fraught relationship. And that goes back in some ways to their first meeting in 2017 in Hamburg on the edges of a larger summit meeting. They met and talked three times. And after that summit ended, the president got on Air Force One and he called me on his cell phone before they took off.

哇。

Wow.

他对我说，大卫，普京总统刚才对我说了件非常有趣的事。他说俄罗斯不可能干预2016年大选，因为他们的网络技术太强，绝不会被抓到。你同意吗？

And he said to me, you know, David, President Putin just said the the most interesting thing to me. He said that the Russians couldn't have interfered in the twenty sixteen election because they're so good at cyber that they never would have been caught. Don't you agree with that?

你当时怎么回应的？

What did you say in response to that?

我当时回应道，总统先生，您必须自己决定是相信普京总统，还是相信那些向您汇报俄罗斯活动情况的情报主管们。当然，总统在电话里对我说的话，与几个月后他在赫尔辛基记者会上的公开表态完全一致。

What I said in response was, well, you'll have to decide, mister president, whether you believe president Putin or whether you believe the intelligence chiefs who came and briefed you about the Russian activity. And of course, what the president said to me over the phone was completely consistent with what he said a few months later in public at that press conference in Helsinki.

我这里有普京总统。他刚刚说不是俄罗斯干的。我要说，我看不出任何理由会是这样，但我真的

I have president Putin. He just said it's not Russia. I will say this, I don't see any reason why it would be, but I really

那次他基本上采纳了弗拉基米尔·普京关于俄罗斯丑闻的观点。

Where he basically adopted Vladimir Putin's view of the Russia scandal.

邮件事件。我非常信任我的情报团队，但我要告诉你们，普京总统今天的否认极其坚决有力。而他的做法是

Emails. I have great confidence in my intelligence people, but, I will tell you that president Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today. And what he did is

这让所有人都感到震惊，因为看起来他完全接受了普京的说辞。

And that sort of shocked everybody because it looked like he was buying Putin's line.

大卫，从你的描述来看，基于这两人过去的互动方式、他们的关系，以及特朗普那些似乎呼应普京论调的言论，特朗普显然不把普京视为对手。而那些在这场战争中有利害关系（当然不包括俄罗斯一方）的人担心，特朗普可能会轻信普京关于战争的宣传。

Basically, sounds like, David, from what you're telling us, that based on the way these two men have interacted in the past and their relationship and the things that Trump has said that seem to mirror Putin's talking points, Trump does not see Putin as an adversary. That much seems obvious. And the fear here from people who have a stake in this war and are not, of course, on Russia's side is that Trump could be susceptible to Putin's propaganda about the war.

这正是人们担忧的，尤其是欧洲人和乌克兰人即将面临的局面。所以许多人警告他：你绝不能在这场会晤后显得被普京愚弄了。

That's exactly what people are worried about, particularly the Europeans and the Ukrainians in this coming session. And that's why so many of them have been warning him, you don't want to emerge from this appearing to be duped by Putin.

好的。显然特朗普想要达成协议，不愿显得像个傻瓜。但他具体想要什么样的协议？我们了解任何细节吗？

Okay. So, obviously, Trump wants a deal. He doesn't wanna look like a fool. But what does he want the actual deal to look like? Do we know any details of that?

他对此说得很少。唯一提过的词是'领土交换'。这暗示他感兴趣的是与普京讨论：俄罗斯能否获得其尚未通过军事手段夺取的土地——大概是以乌克兰真正想要的东西作为交换。但事实是，除了能站出来宣称自己达成了伟大协议或即将达成协议外，我们并不清楚他真正想要什么。

He hasn't said very much about that. The only thing he has uttered is the phrase land swaps. And that suggests that what he's interested in is discussing with Putin whether Russia would get land that it has not yet taken militarily, presumably in return for something Ukraine really wants. But the fact of the matter is, we really don't know what he wants other than the ability to step out and say that he's gotten a great deal or he's on the way to a great deal.

显然普京非常想要土地。我猜把这像胡萝卜一样悬在普京面前，是吸引他回到谈判桌的诱人方式。你能再谈谈普京还想从这次会晤中得到什么吗？

So, obviously, Putin very much wants land. And I imagine that dangling that in front of Putin, like, as a carrot is an enticing way to get him to the table. So can you talk a little bit more about what else Putin wants out of this meeting?

当然。过去三年里，普京已明确表达了他的诉求。他要确保乌克兰永远不会受邀加入北约，要限制乌克兰军队的规模及其武器装备类型。普京还多次提及试图将北约推回至1990年代的状态——在他眼中，北约的大规模东扩已对俄罗斯传统势力范围形成包围与侵蚀。

Sure. Putin has been pretty clear over the past three years what he wants. He wants to make sure that Ukraine never is invited to join NATO. He wants to make sure that Ukraine's military is constricted in size and the kind of arms they have. Putin also has talked at various moments about trying to push NATO back to the lines it was at in the nineteen nineties before the big expansion of NATO states that to Putin's mind has encircled and encroached on traditional Russian territory.

值得注意的是，你提到的所有内容——普京的所有诉求——自始至终都未曾改变。他对这场战争的立场和预期目标始终如一，对吧？

It's worth noting, I think, that everything you mentioned, everything that Putin wants, he's wanted since the beginning. Like, his position on this war and what he wants out of it has been consistent the entire time. Right?

他对战争目标的坚持堪称极致。反倒是美国，我认为其立场可能是最摇摆不定的。

He has been incredibly consistent about his war objectives. It's The United States, I think, that has been probably the most inconsistent.

没错。大卫，按你的描述，特朗普先尝试'胡萝卜'政策，接着用'大棒'，现在似乎又回到了'胡萝卜'策略。所以我很好奇，为何特朗普认为现在达成协议的可能性更大？

Right. I mean, to your point, David, the way you've described it, Trump tried the carrot, then he tried the stick, then he tried the carrot again, which is where we are now, it seems. And so I wonder why Trump thinks a deal is more likely

这确实有些费解，瑞秋。因为唯一实质性的变化是普京在战场上开始取得显著进展。正因如此，他现在更缺乏停火或签署协议的动机。但特朗普总统正面临巨大压力——他先是承诺24小时内解决问题，

now. It's a bit of a mystery, Rachel, because the only thing that's really changed is that Putin's beginning to make some significant progress on the battlefield. And thus, he's got less of an incentive to bring about a cease fire or sign a deal right now. But the president is under considerable pressure here. First, he said he would get this solved in twenty four hours.

后来改口称需要一百天，如今已超过两百天。特朗普总统正面临'要么兑现承诺，要么闭嘴'的境地。普京很可能察觉到了这点，既想缓和总统近期对俄罗斯（尤其是对他本人）的怒火，又想争取更多时间。

Then he said he'd get it solved in a hundred days. Now we're past two hundred days. So President Trump is coming to a sort of put up or shut up point. And it's very possible that Putin is detecting this, wants to diffuse the president's recent anger at Russia and specifically at him, but also wants to play for time.

这么说来，其实没有任何迹象表明普京愿意作出让步。即便双方达成某种协议，关键问题在于乌克兰是否会接受，对吧？毕竟谈判时他们并不在场。大卫，能否请你解释当前峰会前夕乌克兰的立场？

So it sounds like there's really no indication that Putin is more willing to give anything up at all. And even if they've reached some kind of agreement, it sounds like the question here is whether or not Ukraine will actually accept it. Right? Because they're not in the room when they're being negotiated over. So can you just explain, David, what Ukraine's position is at the current moment as we are heading into the summit?

泽连斯基总统明确表示，尽管他感谢特朗普总统推动谈判进程，但无法将乌克兰利益托付给特朗普。乌克兰想要什么？首先，我们认为乌方明白自己将在此过程中失去部分领土，但失去领土的方式至关重要——他们需要获得能让泽连斯基在国内交代的筹码。

So president Zelenskyy has been very clear that while he is thankful to president Trump for getting this process going, he can't trust president Trump with Ukraine's interests. So what does Ukraine want? First of all, we think the Ukrainians understand they're gonna lose some territory in the course of this. But it's important how they lose the territory. In other words, that they feel like they are getting something that Zelensky can sell at home.

他们已精疲力竭，迫切需要重振士气。

They're exhausted. They're tired. They need some kind of a wind brought back to them.

正是如此。这实质关乎乌克兰未来的安全保障。乌克兰最担忧的是普京在其原有领土上获得永久立足点，进而伺机吞并全国。因此乌方必须确保所割让的领土不会成为俄罗斯日后发动进攻的跳板。

That's right. And what it really means is Ukraine's future security. The Ukrainian nightmare here is that Putin gets a permanent foothold on what was Ukrainian territory. And then at some point, go out and take the rest of the country. So he wants to make sure that Ukraine doesn't give away territory that essentially sets Russia up to be able to do that.

他要求西方保证继续向乌克兰提供武器，并信守协助保卫乌克兰的承诺。

And he wants guarantees that the West will keep arming Ukraine and will keep its promises of helping to defend Ukraine.

从描述来看，乌克兰的立场似乎也没有太大变化。

It doesn't sound like Ukraine's position has changed much either based on that description.

完全正确，瑞秋。俄罗斯和乌克兰实质上仍保持着过去三年的立场，这让人不禁怀疑安克雷奇的会谈能取得什么实质成果。

That's exactly right, Rachel. The Russians, the Ukrainians, they're essentially taking the same positions they've taken for these past three years, and that does make you wonder what can really come out of this discussion in Anchorage.

广告之后马上回来。

We'll be right back.

大卫，你提到这次会议即将在这座空军基地举行。能否具体描述下流程安排？

So, David, this meeting is going to take place soon at this Air Force Base, as you mentioned. Can you just describe what's actually going to happen?

总统将乘空军一号抵达基地，约半小时后普京总统预计到达，届时美国总统将前往迎接——会有个红毯仪式。随后双方将进行数小时会谈，具体时长尚不明确。

Well, the president's gonna land in Air Force One at the base. About a half an hour later, President Putin is supposed to arrive and the President is supposed to go greet him. So there will be this sort of red carpet moment. And then the two are going to sit down. They're going to meet for some number of hours, a little bit unclear.

期间将举行联合记者会。会后特朗普总统已向泽连斯基承诺会致电通报讨论内容，同样也会与欧洲领导人沟通。

At some point, they are supposed to have a joint press conference. Now after the meeting is over, president Trump has told president Zelensky he will call him and give him a summary of what was discussed, and then do the same with the European leaders.

这次会议可能达成哪些协议？

What are the possible deals that could come out of this meeting?

瑞秋，这类谈判总存在失败可能。但考虑到特朗普需要展现对话成果，普京也需要争取时间，双方应该会有所表态。首要观察点在于是否讨论或承诺停火。

Well, Rachel, in any negotiation like this, failure is always an option. So it's possible we'd get nothing. I doubt that's gonna happen because it's in president Trump's interest to show that he's gotten a conversation going, and it's in president Putin's interest to buy some time. So they're gonna come out with something. The most important first thing to look for would be whether there is any discussion or commitment to a cease fire.

乌克兰和欧洲坚持必须首先停火，才能展开关于领土等实质谈判——他们拒绝在战事持续、平民伤亡、战线变动的情况下谈判。停火形式多样：包括全面停火（所有武器停火），也有仅限制无人机空战但允许地面战继续的局部停火方案。

And the Ukrainians and the Europeans have insisted that there must be a cease fire first before any real negotiation about land or anything else can take place. That they don't want to negotiate while the war is going on, while civilians are being killed, and while the lines are changing. But there are various kinds of cease fires. There's a full cease fire in which all guns are silent. There has been discussion of an air war cease fire that would stop the use of drones back and forth, but would continue the ground war.

目前存在各种时限的停火协议，旨在为谈判解决制造时间压力。当然，这些谈判随后将在后续会议中进行，很可能由普京总统、泽连斯基总统和特朗普总统共同开启会晤，已有暗示表明这将在未来几周内进行。但我们尚不确定能否实现。

There are cease fires of various time limits to create time pressure for a negotiated solution. And of course, those negotiations then would have to happen in later sessions, presumably one that would start with President Putin, President Zelensky, and president Trump all meeting together, and that's been hinted for coming weeks. But we don't know if that would happen.

好的。那么你基本的意思是，如果这次会晤能取得成果，最有可能的会是某种形式的停火，对吧？而真正的谈判——关于这场战争的核心问题即领土与安全的具体细节——只有在那之后才会开始。

Okay. So basically, what you're saying is that if something came out of this meeting, it would be some form of a ceasefire, most likely. Right? And then only after that is when the real negotiations start over the specific details, the the central issues in this war, which are land and security.

正是如此。这是最乐观的预期。当然，就目前而言，普京可能并不真正希望停火，因为他正占据上风。

That's right. That's the best you could hope for. And, of course, at this moment, it may not be in Putin's interest to actually have a ceasefire because he's winning.

但我认为乌克兰方面会非常在意所达成的停火类型。

I assume though that Ukraine cares about what type of ceasefire is agreed to.

他们当然极为重视。全面停火能终止杀戮并促成实质谈判。而仅停止空战的停火则会让顿巴斯地区寸土必争的残酷堑壕战持续下去——这种消耗战已让双方损失惨重，同时还会限制乌克兰对俄罗斯境内纵深目标的打击能力。要知道，最令俄罗斯人震惊的正是乌克兰的哪些行动？

Oh, they care deeply. And a full ceasefire would stop the killing and enable a real negotiation to go on. A ceasefire that only ended the air war would continue the awful trench warfare that's happening inch by inch in the Donbas and that has been so costly on both sides. It would also limit Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside of Russia. What is it that the Ukrainians have done that has most shaken the Russians?

是那些能绕过克里姆林宫直抵莫斯科的无人机袭击能力。

It's the ability to send those drones right around the Kremlin into Moscow.

我记得那次事件。

I remember that.

这种深入俄境打击其石油设施或空军基地的能力至关重要。因此我认为，若能达成停火，其具体形式对乌克兰人而言意义重大。

It's the ability to strike deep into Russian territory and take out their oil facilities or take out their airfields. And so I think that the kind of ceasefire that might be declared here, if one can be reached, matters greatly to the Ukrainians.

大卫，你认为普京会同意一项强有力的停火协议吗？

David, do you think that Putin will agree to a strong ceasefire?

他或许会同意停火，但可能将其作为远期承诺。当然，他会试图通过描绘美俄关系更广阔的前景，转移总统对乌克兰具体问题的注意力。

I think he may agree to a ceasefire, but it may be for the future. And, of course, he's going to try to distract the president from the narrow issues of Ukraine by offering a bigger and broader future for The US Russia relationship.

在他看来那是什么样子？

What does that look like to him?

嗯，你已经在议程上看到了。普京总统带了一个商业代表团，这表明他可能会抛出稀土、关键矿物、美国在俄罗斯的投资，甚至俄罗斯在美国的投资，作为打动特朗普的最可靠方式。但他在周四离开俄罗斯前还暗示了另一件事，那就是一项更广泛的核协议。记住，距离美俄之间最后一项重大双边军控协议到期只有七个月了。所以两位总统有可能达成一项行政协议，冻结甚至减少他们互相瞄准的武器数量。

Well, you see it already in the agenda. President Putin is bringing with him a business delegation, which suggests that he's probably going to dangle rare earths or critical minerals or US investments in Russia or maybe even Russia investments in The US as the surest way to Donald Trump's heart. But he also hinted on Thursday before he left Russia at one other thing, which was a broader nuclear agreement. Remember, we are only seven months away from the expiration of the last big bilateral arms control agreement between The US and Russia. So it is possible that the two presidents could work out an executive agreement to freeze or even lower the number of weapons that they are pointing at each other.

而这种商业交易和某种核协议的组合，正是我们知道特朗普非常敏感的两件事。

And this combination, business deals and some kind of a nuclear accord are two things that we know Donald Trump is very sensitive to.

听起来普京基本上是在迎合特朗普长期以来的愿望，即加强俄罗斯和美国的关系。所以基本上，如果特朗普认为他能从这些讨论中得到非常有诱惑力的东西，他可能就会放弃乌克兰，这是普京的想法。

It sounds like Putin is basically playing to Trump's long desire to strengthen the relationship between Russia and The United States. So basically, like, if Trump thinks he can get something very enticing out of these discussions, he might just give up on Ukraine is Putin's thinking.

或者即使不放弃乌克兰，至少也会软化他在乌克兰问题上的立场。嗯。

Or if not give up on Ukraine, then at least soften his position on Ukraine. Mhmm.

美国和俄罗斯，至少在这次会晤中，表现得像是全球舞台上最重要的玩家，可以决定所有这些其他人和地方的命运。这让我想起了你在对话开始时说的话，即这次峰会可能有点像雅尔塔会议。这就是你进行比较的原因吗？

The idea that The United States and Russia, at least in this meeting, are acting like they are potentially the most important players on the global stage that get to decide the fate of all these other people and places. That reminds me of what you said at the beginning of this conversation, which is that this summit could be sort of similar to Yalta. Is that why you made the comparison?

是的。我确信在普京和特朗普总统的脑海中，可能有点这种想法。但在这种情况下，这个类比开始站不住脚，因为俄罗斯确实是美国的对手。而且还有另一个主要的超级大国，真正在与俄罗斯、美国和其他国家一起决定各国的命运。那就是中国。

It is. And I'm I'm certain that in Putin's mind and in president Trump's, there's probably a bit of that going on. In this case, the analogy begins to fail because Russia really has been an adversary to The United States. And there's another major superpower out there that really is deciding the fate of nations along with Russia, The US, and others. And that's China.

而他们在这里却不见踪影。

And they're nowhere to be seen here.

我想知道你是否认为这次峰会将揭示特朗普实际上在多大程度上认为俄罗斯是一个对手。

I wonder if you think that this summit will reveal the extent to which Trump actually feels like Russia is an adversary.

雷切尔，我们都会在这次新闻发布会上寻找这一点，假设它会发生。我们也会在特朗普总统未来关于俄罗斯的评论中寻找这一点。在前六个月里，他的态度一直摇摆不定。现在他谈到要介入一场谈判，而目前还不清楚任何一方是否准备让步。

Rachel, we're all going to be looking for that at this press conference, assuming it happens. And we're going to be looking for it in president Trump's future comments about Russia. He's been all over the map in the first six months. And now he's talking about inserting himself into the middle of a negotiation where it's not clear that either side is ready to give.

从你告诉我们的一切来看，战争似乎不会很快结束。而且极有可能，它会继续无休止地拖延下去，这可能只会对普京有利。

From everything you've told us, it doesn't seem like an end to the war is imminent. And that in all likelihood, it's going to actually keep grinding on and on and on, which probably only benefits Putin.

确实，唐纳德·特朗普需要从这次对话中获得停火。而普京只要露面就算赢了，对吧？我的意思是，他已经被国际社会孤立。西方领导人不会与他见面。

Well, it's certainly true that Donald Trump needs a ceasefire to come out of this conversation. Whereas Putin wins just by showing up. Right? I mean, he's been isolated by the international community. Western leaders would not meet with him.

因此，仅仅是他出现在美国领土上，与美国总统一对一会面，而且是在阿拉斯加——一个曾经属于俄罗斯的地方，象征着国际边界可以变动的事实——这些对普京来说都是胜利，即使没有达成任何协议。

And so the very fact that he is showing up on American territory, meeting the President of The United States one on one, doing so in Alaska, a place that used to belong to Russia and therefore is a symbol of the fact that international borders move. Those are all wins for Putin even if there is no agreement.

假设特朗普从这次会面中走出来，然后决定：你知道吗？我受够这场战争了。我厌倦了。我举手投降。我要退出。

Let's just say that Trump comes out of this, and he decides, you know what? I'm done with this war. I'm tired of it. I'm throwing up my hands. I'm walking away.

欧洲很可能会介入，大概会向乌克兰提供某种支持。即使美国退后，战争也会继续。所以，如果美俄之间不会达成协议，那么战争实际上会如何结束？

Europe would likely step in presumably and provide some kind of support to Ukraine. The war would continue going on even if The US stepped back. So if a deal between The US and Russia is not gonna happen, let's just say, how does the war actually end?

让我们先考虑一下你的假设，瑞秋。因为如果美国退后，那么弗拉基米尔·普京就赢得了他的最大胜利。对吧？他最想做什么？分裂北约。

Well, let's think about your scenario for a moment, Rachel. Because if The United States step back, then Vladimir Putin has won his biggest victory. Right? What does he most wanna do? Split NATO.

如果他能将北约中最核心、最强大的成员——美国——与其他31个盟国分开，那对他来说将是一个巨大的胜利。因此，许多人认为这是唐纳德·特朗普最需要避免的事情。另一个大问题是，美国如何看待自己作为超级大国的角色？我们是否应该支持那些虽然腐败、不完美但新生的民主国家，比如乌克兰，保护它们不被侵略？在某些时候，特朗普总统可能不得不做出选择。

And if he could separate NATO's central most powerful member, The United States Of America, from the other 31 members of the alliance, that would be a huge victory for him. And thus, in the view of many, the one thing that Donald Trump's got to most avoid. The other big question is, how does The United States view its role as a superpower? Are we here to support nascent, if corrupt and imperfect democracies, like Ukraine, to protect them from having their countries overrun? At some point, President Trump may well have to make a choice.

这个选择就是：他是恢复美国过去三年作为乌克兰坚定盟友的角色，还是按照他政府中许多人的主张，试图促成和平，但如果失败就撒手不管，直接退出？因此，这不仅是一场关于战争的谈判，实际上也将揭示美国如何看待自己。

And that choice is, does he restore America's role for most of the past three years as a steadfast ally of Ukraine? Or does he do what many in his administration argue for, which is essentially try to make peace, but if that doesn't work, wash your hands of it and essentially walk away? And so this is not just a negotiation about the war. It's actually gonna be revelatory about how America views itself.

大卫，非常感谢你。

David, thank you so much.

谢谢你，瑞秋。

Thank you, Rachel.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

以下是您还需要了解的内容

Here's what else you need

今日要闻。华盛顿特区官员与倡导者周四耗费大量时间试图清理无家可归者的营地。他们敦促人们在预期中的联邦突袭前前往庇护所——此前特朗普总统下令联邦接管该市警察部门，并向首都派遣了数百名国民警卫队士兵。美国公共电视网（PBS）因国会近期决定削减约5亿美元公共广播电视联邦拨款，将预算缩减超20%。这项于周三通过邮件告知PBS成员台的决定，是国会投票取消联邦资助并导致公共广播公司陷入困境以来最重大的影响之一。

to know today. City officials and advocates spent much of Thursday trying to clear homeless encampments in Washington DC. They urged people to go to shelters ahead of expected federal raids after president Trump ordered a federal takeover of the city's police department and sent hundreds of national guard troops into the capital. And PBS is cutting its budget by more than 20% after congress's recent decision to eliminate roughly $500,000,000 in federal funding from public radio and TV. The decision, announced in an email to PBS member stations on Wednesday, is one of the biggest consequences to date of the congressional vote, which eliminated federal funding and doomed the corporation for public broadcasting.

本期节目由卡洛斯·普列托、克莱尔·坦尼斯凯特和玛丽·威尔逊制作，莱克西·迪亚奥和佩奇·考艾特编辑，配乐由帕特·麦库斯克原创，克里斯·伍德负责技术制作。主题音乐由Wonderlane乐队的吉姆·布伦德伯格和本·兰斯伯格创作。以上就是本期《每日新闻》的全部内容。

Today's episode was produced by Carlos Prieto, Claire Tennisketter, and Mary Wilson. It was edited by Lexi Diao and Paige Cowet. Contains original music by Pat McCusker and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brundberg and Ben Lansberg of Wonderlane. That's it for The Daily.

我是瑞秋·艾布拉姆斯，周一见。

I'm Rachel Abrams. See you on Monday.