我们从十天战争中学到了什么

在意大利与贝尔蒙德共度生活。

Life in Italy with Belmond.

我们于五月在阿马尔菲海岸的卡鲁索酒店结婚。

We got married at Hotel Caruso in May on the Amalfi Coast.

婚礼当天，我吃早餐时向外望去，能看到橄榄树，那里后来将举办我们的晚宴。

On the wedding day, looking out as I ate breakfast, I could see the olive trees where our dinner would later happen.

我能听到鸟儿在鸣叫。

I could hear the birds chirping.

我能听到钢琴师在练习。

I could hear our pianists practicing.

我几乎听不到其他任何声音。

I could hear almost nothing else.

发现一种全新的旅行节奏。

Discover a new pace of travel.

了解更多故事，请访问 nytimes.com/belmont/life in Italy。

Read more stories at nytimes.com/belmont/life in Italy.

来自《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·比尔巴罗。

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbarro.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

在过去的几天里，原本针对伊朗的持续美以军事打击已牵涉至少14个国家。

Over the past few days, what began as a relentless US Israeli military assault on Iran has drawn in at least 14 countries.

从黎巴嫩开始。

From Lebanon.

我和我的家人住在贝鲁特郊外的一个社区。

I, with my family, live in a neighborhood just outside of Beirut.

我们不得不在凌晨四点、五点或六点被惊醒，因为导弹和炸弹不断落在我们的社区和人民身上。

We are having to wake up in the middle of the night at 4AM or 5AM, 6AM hearing these missiles and bombs constantly hitting our neighborhoods and our people.

到阿拉伯联合酋长国。

To The United Arab Emirates.

我们听到了拦截导弹的爆炸声，于是带着家人躲进了地下室避难。

We heard some explosions from the interceptors, and that's when we went with my family to the basement to get some shelter.

到沙特阿拉伯。

To Saudi Arabia.

我们都在飞机上。

We were all on the plane.

我从沙特阿拉伯来。

I came from Saudi Arabia.

一切都很顺利，可以起飞。

Everything was fine to go.

他们让我们下飞机。

They told us to get off.

他们说因为导弹，飞行不安全。

They said it wasn't safe to fly because of the missiles.

所以我们大家都以为我们会滞留。

So we all thought we were gonna be stranded.

随着冲突演变为一场地区性危机。

As the conflict has transformed into a region wide crisis.

而现在，这场战争的影响正在走向全球。

And now the impacts of that war are going global.

由于这场战争，一条主要的石油航运路线实际上已被关闭，引发了市场的剧烈震荡。

A major shipping route for oil has effectively been shut down amid this war, shockwaves through the markets.

随着全球石油市场的动荡从中东蔓延至欧洲、亚洲和北美。

As the disruption of the world's oil market spreads from The Middle East to Europe, Asia, and North America.

由于霍尔木兹海峡实际上已关闭，伊朗的燃料库遭到袭击，原油价格已涨至每桶100美元以上。

The price of crude oil has risen above $100 a barrel as the Strait Of Hormuz is effectively closed and Iranian fuel depots are battered.

今天，埃里克·施密特将为我们介绍，经过一周的战争，我们对这场冲突中所有相关方有了哪些新了解。

Today, Eric Schmitt on what we're learning about all the players involved in this conflict from a week of war.

今天是3月10日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, March 10.

埃里克，感谢你抽出时间接受我们的采访。

Eric, thank you for making time for us.

我们非常感激。

We appreciate it.

当然。

Sure.

当然可以。

Of course.

所以我们想在战争开始一周左右的时候，和你聊聊各方政府在这场冲突中取得了哪些成果，或者哪些目标未能实现。

So we wanted to speak with you one week or so into this war about what has been accomplished or has failed to be accomplished by all the major governments involved in this conflict.

我打算大致按照这样的顺序来组织我们的对话：先从美国和以色列在本轮冲突初期对伊朗采取了哪些行动说起。

And the way I wanted to loosely organize our conversation was by starting off with what has been done to Iran by The US and Israel in the first half of this episode.

然后在后半部分，梳理伊朗作为报复对地区和世界造成了哪些影响，不知你是否觉得这样安排合理。

And then in the second half, walk through what Iran in retaliation has done to the region and the world, if that makes sense to you.

这非常合理。

That makes a lot of sense.

好的。

Okay.

那么，既然你同意了，我们就继续吧。

So with that blessing, we will proceed.

到目前为止，我们很清楚，美国在这场冲突中的目标反复无常。

We know quite well at this point that The United States objectives in this conflict have whipsawed.

最初的目标是消除伊朗的核计划，随后变成了彻底的政权更迭。

Starting with the mission of getting rid of Iran's nuclear program, then it became outright regime change.

接着，美国又愿意与政权内部人士合作，直到特朗普总统最新提出的全面政权投降要求。

Then it was The US being willing to work with regime insiders to this latest demand from president Trump for total regime surrender.

因此，总体来看，这些信息相当混乱。

So overall, a pretty incoherent set of messages.

鉴于这种情况，让我们聚焦于实地真正发生的事情。

Given that, let's focus on what we know has actually happened on the ground.

即美国和以色列打击的目标，以及这些打击对伊朗政权造成的实际影响。

The targets that The US and Israel have struck and what shape that has left the regime in.

我认为我们可以在这里说得非常详细和具体。

And I think we can get pretty detailed and specific here.

那么，你想从哪里开始？

So where do you wanna start?

好的。

Okay.

在这场军事行动开始约十天后，以色列和美国军队已打击了超过4000个目标。

So about ten days into this military campaign, the Israeli and American militaries have struck more than 4,000 targets

哇。

Wow.

在这段时间内。

Over this time period.

是的。

Yeah.

这包括第一天的袭击，那次行动杀死了最高领袖，这我认为是以色列，以及在某种程度上美国的主要政治目标。

So this includes, obviously, the first day strike that killed the supreme leader, the main political goal, I think, of Israel and, to some extent, The United States.

但从军事角度来看，在这4000个目标中，他们主要集中在摧毁伊朗的防空系统。

But from a military standpoint, of these 4,000 targets, they've really focused heavily on eliminating Iran's air defenses.

这些是能够攻击美国轰炸机或以色列战机的地面到空导弹之类的东西。

These are the surface to air missiles that could attack American bombers or Israeli jets, those kind of things.

所以他们针对这些目标，是为了让以色列和美国空军在空中拥有行动自由。

So they've gone after that to give the Israeli and American air forces freedom of movement in the skies.

嗯。

Mhmm.

其他主要目标包括弹道导弹，这些导弹会升入太空再重新返回地面。

The other big targets include the ballistic missiles, which actually go up into space and come back down again.

它们呈弧线回落，打击远程、高速移动的目标，造成巨大破坏。

They arc back down against their long range, very fast moving targets that cause a lot of damage.

另一个主要重点是打击伊朗海军。

The other main focus has been to strike the Iranian navy.

这些舰船和快艇能够干扰波斯湾及其他地区的商业活动。

These are the ships and boats that can basically interfere with commerce in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere.

对。

Right.

因此，美国认为他们已经击沉了伊朗海军的大部分舰艇，从而消除了来自其主要海军舰船对地区商业的威胁。

So The United States believes that they've sunk much of the Iranian navy, and thus, eliminated much of the threat, at least from their major navy vessels of commerce in the region.

对。

Right.

我读到过，大约有42艘伊朗船只被击沉。

I've read something like 42 Iranian ships have been sunk.

是的。

Yeah.

这个数字还在增加，因为他们一直专注于这一点。

The number keeps increasing because they've been focusing on that.

伊朗的小型船只仍构成威胁，但对主力海军的打击至关重要。

The threat still remains from Iran's small boats, but the main navy strikes has been very important.

最后，美国还试图打击伊朗强大的无人机项目。

And then lastly, The United States has tried to go after Iran's formidable drone program.

这些无人机正是伊朗制造并被俄罗斯用于乌克兰的同款无人机。

These are the same drones that Iran has manufactured and have been used by the Russians in Ukraine.

这些无人机非常具有威胁性，尽管美国拥有多种防空手段应对，包括电子干扰、小型武器，甚至专门的反无人机系统。

These are formidable because as much as The United States has air defenses against these and a wide array of things from jamming to small weapons to actually counter drone drones, if you will.

他们拥有这么多这种无人机。

They have so many of these drones.

防御系统不可能同时覆盖所有地方。

The defenses just can't be everywhere at once.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

那么，在以色列和美国空军发动大约十天的战争后，这一切加起来意味着什么？

So how does this all add up after about ten days of war from both the Israeli and the American air forces?

五角大楼基本上认为，他们在第一天就将伊朗发射的导弹数量减少了约90%。

The Pentagon basically believes that they've reduced the number of missiles being fired by Iran by about 90% on the first day.

将无人机的发射数量减少了约83%。

And the number of drones being fired by about 83%.

意义重大。

Very meaningful.

相当显著。

Pretty significant.

但上周晚些时候，五角大楼官员在向国会的机密简报中表示，伊朗仍保留着高达50%的导弹总量。

But in confidential briefings to congress late last week, Pentagon officials told lawmakers that the Iranians still have as much as 50% of their overall missile fleet still intact.

现在这些导弹每天都在被持续打击。

Now that's getting hammered away every day.

所以到目前为止，数量可能又进一步减少了。

So by now, it's probably chipped down a little bit more low that.

但更重要的是，无人机的数量可能甚至比这还多。

But more important is the drones are probably even more than that.

到目前为止，他们仍然能够制造这些无人机。

They can still manufacture these drones at this point.

他们仍然拥有大量的这类无人机库存。

They still have huge stockpiles of these.

尽管美国和以色列对这些库存造成了重大破坏，但伊朗仍保留着相当数量的剩余，而这正是我们当前所面临的竞赛。

So even though The United States and Israel post significant damage on these stockpiles, the Iranians still have a fair amount left, and that's the race that we're in here.

埃里克，当你提到‘竞赛’时，能帮我具体解释一下你的意思吗？

And, Eric, when you say race, just help me understand what you mean there.

什么之间的竞争？

Race between what?

所以这里的竞争，迈克尔，是伊朗尽可能多地发射这些导弹和无人机，以造成最大程度的肉体痛苦、经济痛苦和政治痛苦， versus 美国和以色列摧毁伊朗这种反击能力的速度。

So the race here, Michael, is between Iran's ability to fire off as many of these missiles and drones as possible to inflict as much pain as possible, physical pain, economic pain, political pain, versus The United States and Israel's ability to knock out that ability to fight back.

这就是正在展开的竞争。

That's the race that's underway.

伊朗能多快地发射足够多的这类武器，将痛苦推至顶峰？而美国和以色列又能多快地压制伊朗的这种能力？

How quickly can the Iranians fire enough of this stuff off to really increase the pain to its maximum point, And how quickly can The US and Israel suppress that Iranian ability?

明白了。

Got it.

而且可以推测，美国的弹药储备足以支撑比伊朗更久的时间。

And presumably, The US has enough munitions to go longer than Iran.

弹药一直是个关键问题，因为某些类型的弹药比其他类型更短缺。

Well, the munitions has been a key question because some kinds of munitions are in shorter supply than others.

战争初期这非常重要，因为美国不得不使用非常昂贵的所谓‘防区外武器’。

This was very important at the beginning of the war because The United States was having to use very expensive, what they call, standoff weapons.

这些是昂贵的导弹，可以从伊朗防空系统射程之外发射。

That is expensive missiles that they can fire from outside of the range of Iranian air defenses.

我们现在进入了空袭的另一个阶段，因为大多数这些防空系统已被摧毁或削弱。

We've now shifted into a different phase of the air campaign with most of these air defenses destroyed or degraded.

美国现在可以进场投放其他类型的炸弹，比如卫星和激光制导炸弹，这些炸弹数量更多、成本更低、库存更充足。

The US now can come in and drop other kinds of bombs, satellite and laser guided bombs that are much more plentiful and cheaper and that are much greater stores.

然而，短缺的是地面上的拦截弹。

What's in short supply is what's on the ground, however, the interceptors.

这些是专门制造的导弹，用于防御我们之前提到的伊朗发射的弹道导弹和其他巡航导弹。

These are specially made missiles that are meant to protect against those ballistic missiles and other cruise missiles that we talked about earlier that Iran is firing.

短缺的就是这个。

That's what's in short supply.

美国军方表示，他们有足够的拦截弹来保护自己的基地。

The US military says it has enough to protect its bases.

但许多海湾国家发现，他们没有足够的拦截弹来保护自己的民众。

But many of the Gulf countries, are finding they don't have enough to protect their own populations.

他们正在敦促美国和其他国家，看能否紧急提供更多拦截器。

And they're pressing The United States and other countries to see if they can provide more on an emergency basis.

到目前为止，我们讨论的很多内容，埃里克，都是伊朗和美国的军事目标。

A lot of what we've been talking about so far, Eric, are the military targets of Iran and The United States.

但还有一些目标更加模糊不清。

But there are additional targets that are a little more ambiguous.

我想到了过去几天对大约30个伊朗石油储油设施的打击。

And I'm thinking about over the past couple of days strikes on something like 30 Iranian oil depots.

我想了解，这些应该被视为军事目标，还是更多属于针对民用基础设施？其背后的理由是什么？

And I wanna understand whether that should be seen as a military target, or is it more civilian infrastructure targeting what the rationale is?

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

你一针见血地指出了一个非常重要的问题，迈克尔，因为这凸显了以色列和美国在战争初期罕见的分歧之一。

You you put your finger on a very important point, Michael, because this has highlighted one of the rare early divisions in the war between Israel and The United States.

以色列袭击这些石油仓库，因为它们对维持伊朗的战争机器至关重要。

Israel struck these oil depots because these are important to fueling the Iranian war machine.

这些石油正被用于这一目的。

This oil is being used for that purpose.

因此，他们希望摧毁伊朗的这种能力。

And so they wanna take out that ability to do so.

他们事先警告了美国，表示将采取这一行动，而美国对此表示同意。

And they warned the Americans that they were gonna do this and that the Americans were okay with that.

但他们并不知道以色列会炸毁其中30个设施，制造出黑烟滚滚、石油仓库爆炸的可怕画面，而此时油价正在飙升。

What they didn't know was Israel was gonna blow up 30 of these things and create this horrific image of black billowing smoke and oil depots blowing up at a time when oil prices are spiking Right.

这突显了特朗普总统的一大关切。

And underscoring one of the big concerns that president Trump has.

因此，美国昨天明确表达了反对意见，显然特朗普总统非常不满，并公开表达了他们的反对。

And so the Americans made their objections known yesterday very clearly, and apparently, president Trump was quite upset and made his objections known.

美国原本同意以色列打击他们认为的军事目标，但认为以色列行动过火，不仅给美国制造了形象问题，更带来了真正的经济问题。

So the Americans were okay to a point with the Israelis taking out what they consider military targets, but they felt Israel overdid it and basically created a problem, not just a an optics problem for The United States, but a real economic problem.

这仅仅进一步加剧了人们对油价上涨的担忧。

It just kind of helps drive up these oil price concerns.

因此，当目标具有军事性质时，美以双方迄今为止的策略似乎相当有效；但当目标转向更多民用基础设施时，情况就不同了。

So when the targets have been military in nature, The US Israeli strategy so far seems like it has been pretty effective where the targets have veered into more civilian infrastructure.

围绕这一点已经引发了冲突和争议。

There has been conflict and controversy around it.

我想知道，从总体上看，在十天后我们该如何评估这些美以袭击是否精准，以及用这个词是否恰当——是否道德。

I'm curious how we should think overall ten days in about whether these US Israel attacks have been precise and, if this is the right word to use here, moral.

显然，伊朗境内已有上千人丧生。

Well, clearly, you've got more than a thousand people killed on the ground in Iran.

因此，一些空袭可能同时达成了两个目的。

So some of these strikes, they maybe they've achieved both.

也许它们击中了军事目标，但在过程中也造成了平民伤亡。

Maybe they've struck a military target, but they've also killed civilians in the process.

这方面最典型的例子是针对伊朗海军基地的一次袭击。

The biggest example of this was a strike against an Iranian naval base.

在基地旁边是一所小学，那里有175人遇难。

And next to the base is an elementary school where a 175 people were killed.

现在，美国军方表示正在进行并持续进行的调查，关注的是这件事是如何发生的。

Now, this investigation which the United States military says it's conducting and ongoing is focused on how did this happen?

是炸弹偏离了目标吗？

Was this a bomb that went astray?

还是他们获得的情报有误？

Was this just bad targeting information that they had?

因为这所学校几年前实际上是这个海军基地的一部分。

Because this school actually several years ago was part of this naval base.

后来过了一段时间，它被分了出来，变成了一所小学。

And then some time ago, it was split off and it just became an elementary school.

也就是美国。

Which The U.

S。

S.

可能不知道。

May not have known.

没错。

Exactly.

遗憾的是，这种情况已经发生过多次。他们本该知道的，因为他们在核查这些信息时，完全可以清楚地看到——通过卫星图像和其他手段。

And this sadly has happened They should have known this as they check these things because it's very clear as they look at the satellite imagery, they look at other things.

孩子们在田野里跑来跑去，你知道的，这种景象很常见。

There are school kids out, you know, running around in fields and things like that.

现在有一道围栏将被袭击的基地和这所学校分隔开来，而学校离基地只有几百码远。

And there's a fence that now separates the base, which was attacked, and this school, which is just, you know, a couple 100 yards away from it.

所以，你能清楚地看到，这件事为什么会不幸发生。

So, you know, you could see sadly how this thing might have happened.

总的来说，埃里克，据我们所知，有多少伊朗平民丧生？

All told, Eric, how many Iranian civilians have been killed as far as we know?

我认为伊朗驻联合国代表表示，已有1300名伊朗平民丧生。

I believe Iran's envoy to the UN has said 1,300 Iranian civilians have been killed.

我确信，在整个冲突过程中，所有这些数字都会受到质疑，但我们是否对伊朗平民的死亡人数有所了解？

I'm sure all these numbers will be disputed throughout the conflict, but do we have a sense of the number of Iranian civilians killed?

是的。

Yeah.

这些正是《纽约时报》所采用的估算类型。

Those are the kind of estimates that, certainly we at The New York Times are using.

美国尚未就地面平民伤亡人数提出正式估算。

The United States has not come up with a formal estimate yet as to civilian casualties on the ground.

军方强调，由于他们使用的是精确制导武器，因此尽了一切努力避免平民陷入危险，并尽量减少平民伤亡的风险。

The military makes a point to say because of the precision weapons they're using, they do all they can to avoid putting civilians at risk and to minimize the danger of civilian casualties.

但你知道，在任何战争或冲突中，这种情况都不可避免。

But, you know, in any kind of war, in any kind of conflict, this is going to happen.

如果这是一次误判，这算战争罪吗？

If this was a mistake, is it a war crime?

或者，如果这只是一个错误，那它就只是一个错误？

Or if it's a mistake, it's just a mistake?

遗憾的是，这更可能属于一个错误的范畴。

Sadly, it's more probably in the category of it's a mistake.

战争罪是指我们故意针对某种目标，比如明知那里有妇女和儿童，那就要严重得多。

War crime would be something that we obviously deliberate, some kind of target that you knew had, in this case, women and children, and that would be something much more serious.

我认为，在这种情况下，至少如果它类似于我过去报道过的其他冲突地区平民伤亡事件，那就是有人搞砸了。

I think in this case, at least if it's similar to the cases of civilian casualties and incidents that I've reported on the past and other conflict zones, it's somebody screwed up.

尽管美国和以色列对伊朗的军事和政府造成了巨大破坏，但目前非常明显的是，这场攻势未能推翻政权。

So despite all of the damage that The US and Israel have inflicted, primarily on Iran's military and the government, what seems very clear at this moment is that the onslaught has failed to topple the regime.

这项行动的一个既定目标，尽管多次改变，就是推翻政权。

One of the stated goals of this mission, even though it has changed many times, was to topple the regime.

然而，新的最高领袖已经任命，政权似乎并没有面临崩溃的严重威胁。

And yet a new supreme leader has been appointed, and it does not appear that the regime is in any great jeopardy of collapsing.

对吗？

Correct?

没错。

That's right.

事实上，不仅如此，美国似乎早就知道这一点，或者至少美国的情报机构在开战前就已经清楚这一点。

And in fact, not only that, but it looks like The United States knew this, or at least the intelligence services of The United States knew this even going into this fight.

是的。

Mhmm.

因为他们在开战前就基本评估过，除了像这里从未设想过的地面入侵之外，任何类型的军事行动——比如我们现在看到的大规模空袭——都无法推翻当今统治伊朗的神权政权。

Because they basically assessed going into this war that any kind of military operation, short of some kind of land invasion, which has never been envisioned here, but any kind of major air campaign like we're seeing now would fail to dislodge the theocracy that runs Iran today.

这政权太根深蒂固了。

It's just too entrenched.

他们多年来一直在思考如何生存，并且早已预料到这种攻击。

They've thought about this for years and years of how to survive, and they expected this kind of attack.

而这一天现在终于来了。

And that day has come now.

我们现在正目睹他们几十年来一直在谋划的策略。

And now we're kind of seeing the strategy that they have been thinking about for decades.

为了明确一下，你的意思是，美国早就评估过，它现在对伊朗发动的这场战役不太可能实现我们为这场冲突所宣称的目标。

Just to be clear, you're saying that The United States assessed that the campaign that it's now waging against Iran was unlikely to do the thing that we have articulated as our goal for this conflict.

没错。

That's right.

根据国家情报委员会的一项机密评估，该委员会由各个情报机构组成，他们在战争开始前就做出了这一判断。

In a confidential assessment by the National Intelligence Council, which is a combination of the various intelligence agencies, that was their assessment going into this war.

在近现代，尤其是近期的军事史上，几乎没有任何仅靠空袭就推翻政府的例子。

And there are basically no examples going through recent, certainly recent military history of an air campaign alone toppling a government.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你几乎必须要有某种地面部队介入，或者必须激发民众拿起武器，推翻残存的旧政权。

You almost have to have, you know, some type of force that goes in on the ground, or you have to stir the population itself to take up arms and throw off whatever's left of the former government such as it is.

但这一评估得出的结论是，仅靠空袭本身，无法实现总统所说的推翻这个政权的目标。

But by itself, this assessment concluded, it's not going to get rid of this government that the president said he wanted to do.

很有趣。

Fascinating.

埃里克，关于这一评估及其认为政权很难被推翻的结论，我们该如何看待新任最高领袖——前大阿亚图拉之子——的任命？

Eric, to the point of that assessment and its determination that the regime would be very hard to topple, what should we make of the choice of a new supreme leader, the son of the previous Ayatollah?

有什么理由认为他会改变政权的方向吗？

Is there any reason to think that he's going to change the direction of the regime?

我们了解什么？

What do we know?

用一个词来说，没有。

In one word, no.

穆斯塔法·哈梅内伊是一个强硬派，甚至可能比他父亲更加强硬。

Mushtaq Khamenei is a hardliner, perhaps even more so than his father.

他与伊斯兰革命卫队关系密切，这是伊朗境内一个并行的安全结构，这表明革命卫队仍然在军事、政治层面，乃至在选择下一任统治者方面拥有巨大影响力，正如我们之前谈到的，他们仍在发射导弹和无人机。

He's very close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is the parallel security structure that operates in Iran, and it shows the influence that the IRGC, this revolutionary guard court, still has, not only on the military level as they continue to fire the missiles and drones we talked about, but also at the political level and choosing the next ruler here.

如果说有什么的话，这是伊朗人所能做出的最具挑衅性的选择。

And if anything, this is the most defiant choice that the Iranians could have come up with.

这位统治者是总统和其他美国官员表示他们从未对其抱有太多信任、认为难以合作的人。

This is a ruler that the president and other American officials have said they don't think they ever have a lot of confidence they can work with.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们原本考虑过其他人，这些人显然不会完全顺从，但他们认为这些人可能更务实。

They had other people in mind who obviously wouldn't necessarily be compliant with everything, but they thought they might be more pragmatic.

他们可以与美国和西方合作。

They could work with The United States and work with the West.

对。

Right.

但其他一些人最终去世了。

But others who turned out died.

是的。

Yeah.

他们要么去世了，要么被边缘化了。

They either died or they got sidelined.

但美国和特朗普政府曾认为，他们可以从委内瑞拉借鉴这种模式——在那里，他们显然介入并推翻了独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗，扶植了他的副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯，而后者迄今为止一直与特朗普政府密切合作。

But this was a kind of a model that The United States and the Trump administration thought they could adapt from Venezuela, where they obviously, you know, went in and seized the dictator, Nicolas Maduro, and installed his vice president, Delsy Rodriguez, who's been so far working very closely with the Trump administration there.

然而，伊朗与委内瑞拉截然不同，该政权在政治、军事和经济利益方面都根深蒂固。

Now Iran is a very different place than Venezuela, and the regime, you know, much more entrenched in both the political, military, and economic interests of the country.

因此，持这种想法可能是错误的，但这似乎正是影响政府思考这些问题的因素。

So it may have been misguided to think along these lines, but that seems to be what had influenced the administration as it thought about these things.

现在，伊朗人再次做出了最强硬、最具挑衅性的选择。

Now the Iranians have come back with, again, the most hard line, kind of defiant choice that you could have picked.

因此，这项任命，加上你所描述的政权仍拥有的、具有重要意义的军火，应该会加深我们对政权持久性或其不太可能崩溃的认识。

So this appointment, along with what you described as the regime's remaining munitions, which are meaningful, should deepen our sense of the regime's permanence or its unlikeliness to fall.

这在目前看来似乎并不太可能。

That just does not seem very plausible at the moment.

是的。

Yeah.

我会用‘韧性’而不是‘持久性’这个词，因为你永远无法确定。

I would use the word resilience rather than permanence because you never know.

但这表明，即使在遭受重创的情况下，这个政权依然具有韧性——只要它能坚持下去，它就赢了。

But this shows the resilience of this regime, even in its battered state, that so long as it can hold on, it wins.

这基本上就是对他们而言的全部意义。

That's basically what it amounts to for them.

而在现阶段，伊朗人民发动起义的可能性似乎越来越小。

And at this stage, it seems less and less likely that the Iranian people are going to be rising up.

毫无疑问，像对小学的袭击和对这些石油仓库的袭击，可能不会让伊朗平民将美国或以色列视为他们的盟友或解放者。

And no doubt, things like the strike on the elementary school and the strike on these oil depots, those may not inspire the Iranian civilian population to see The US or Israel especially as their allies or their liberators.

我认为这是对的。

I think that's right.

而且，正如特朗普总统所呼吁的那样，你确实没有看到抗议者起来反对这个政府。

And you certainly haven't seen, as president Trump urged, you haven't seen protesters rise up against this government.

你也没有看到军方官员像他所要求的那样叛变。

You haven't seen military officials defect as he called on them to do.

你没有看到该国任何地方出现叛乱或起义的迹象，从而分散伊朗的注意力。

You haven't seen any signs of rebellion or insurgencies in any part of the country that would divert Iranian attention.

我认为，正如你所说，相反，你看到的是其他一些可能实际上激发政权支持者团结的事件，现在他们会支持这位年轻的领导人，与美国和以色列进行持久斗争。

I think what you've seen, as you said, on the contrary, other incidents that might actually galvanize the regime's supporters, and now they'll rally behind this new younger leader for the fight as long as it takes against The United States and Israel.

好的。

Okay.

好了，埃里克，我们回来后将讨论伊朗在回应中给整个地区乃至全世界带来的痛苦。

Well, Eric, when we come back, we're gonna talk about the pain that Iran has inflicted across the region and in a very real sense across the world in its response.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是罗宾，我非常兴奋地打开我的跨角色扮演应用。

I'm Robin, and I am excited to open my Crossplay app.

我正在挑战我的《纽约时报》同事约翰。

I'm challenging John, my colleague at The New York Times.

罗宾玩了单词‘grunge’，其中包含字母g，值四分。

Robin played the word grunge, which has a g, which is four points.

她触发了三倍单词分值。

She got that triple word multiplier.

我要把‘facts’改成‘faxes’，拿30分。

I'm going to take facts and make it faxes for 30 points.

我或许再用一个两个字母的词，‘woe’让我总分达到23。

I might just take another two letter word here with woe gets me at 23.

我觉得如果我的计算没错，这能让我重新领先。

I think this will put me back in the lead if my maths are mathing.

我喜欢从战略角度来玩，看看怎样能阻止对手获得高分。

I like to play it more from a strategic point of view and see where I can block the other player from scoring high.

我很有竞争心。

I'm pretty competitive.

击败朋友和同事很有趣，还能学到新单词。

It's fun to beat friends and coworkers and also get to learn new words.

Crossplay，纽约时报游戏推出的首款双人文字游戏。

Crossplay, the first two player word game from New York Times games.

今天就免费下载吧。

Download it for free today.

我觉得他以为自己稳赢了，但我并不这么确定。

I think he thinks he has us in the bag, but I'm not so sure.

所以，埃里克，帮我们理解一下伊朗迄今为止的军事回应，正如我们之前暗示的，这种回应在地区和全球范围内造成了各种混乱，导致油价飙升。

So, Eric, help us understand Iran's military response so far, which has wreaked all kind of havoc as we've hinted at across the region and the world because of spiking oil prices.

在我看来，对于非专业人士来说，伊朗报复行动的某些部分似乎经过了精心策划。

And I'd say to the untrained eye, some elements of Iran's retaliation seemed carefully planned.

而其他部分则像是朝各个方向盲目发射。

Others seemed like wild firing in every possible direction.

没错。

That's right.

我认为这都是他们战略的一部分：首先，集中力量向美国在该地区的军事基地发射导弹、无人机及其他武器，这些基地都在伊朗和以色列的导弹射程之内。

I think this is all part of their strategy to focus, first of all, on unleashing its arsenal of missiles and drones and any other weaponry, first and foremost, at The United States bases around the region, all within missile range of Iran as is Israel.

你还能看到伊朗希望扩大这场冲突，使其国际化，尽可能对更多行为体造成伤害。

You're also seeing Iran wanting to widen this conflict, to internationalize this conflict, to inflict as much pain on as many actors as possible.

因此，你不仅看到针对这些国家美国军事基地的袭击，还看到对海湾地区民用基础设施的攻击，比如阿联酋、科威特、卡塔尔和巴林。

That's why you're seeing not only strikes against American military bases in these countries, but against civilian infrastructure across the Gulf Region, for instance, in The United Arab Emirates, in Kuwait, in Qatar, in Bahrain.

你看到对石油基础设施的袭击。

You're seeing attacks on oil infrastructure.

你看到对机场的袭击。

You're seeing attacks on airports.

你看到对酒店的袭击。

You're seeing attacks on hotels.

你看到一系列广泛的袭击，甚至远至塞浦路斯岛，还有针对北约盟友土耳其发射的导弹，且已被击落。

You're seeing a wide range of strikes to as far away as striking the island of Cyprus, and missile strike launched toward Turkey, a NATO ally that was knocked down.

伊朗的意图是造成尽可能多的伤害，向美国和以色列施加巨大压力，迫使其尽快结束这场行动。

The idea here that the Iranians have is to inflict as much pain, to bring as much pressure on The United States and Israel to wrap up this campaign as quickly as possible.

那么，请解释一下这种看似有时是无差别的攻击——但实际上有时又并非无差别——针对整个地区的大使馆、领事馆、办公楼和高层建筑的策略，是如何对美国施加压力，迫使其结束战争的。

Well, just explain the idea that these seemingly at times indiscriminate, but obviously sometimes not at all indiscriminate targeting of embassies, consulates, office buildings, high rises across the whole region, how that brings pressure to bear on The United States to end the war.

具体来说，你可以看看3月1日对科威特港口的无人机袭击，那次袭击导致六名美军士兵死亡，多人受伤。

Well, in a very concrete way, you look at the example of the drone strike on the port in Kuwait on March 1 that killed six US service members and wounded several others.

现在，美国士兵的遗体被运回国，总统本周末在多佛空军基地迎接了这些灵柩。

Now you've got Americans coming back in caskets where the president over the weekend had greeted the remains at Dover Air Force Base.

是的。

Right.

因此，又一次看到美军从中东地区阵亡，场面十分沉重。

So a very somber scene there of American casualties once again coming out of the Middle East.

但正如你所说，在这种分散式的攻击方式中，伊朗还希望制造尽可能多的经济和政治不确定性。

But you also see, as you said, in this kind of scattershot approach, wanting to create as much economic and political uncertainty as possible.

该地区的国家纷纷关闭机场，因为你根本无法保证商业航空交通的安全。

You have countries in the region shutting down their airports because you basically can't guarantee the safety of commercial air traffic.

油轮和其他商船在霍尔木兹海峡内外停滞不前，这条狭窄的水道是波斯湾所有商业往来的重要门户。

You have oil tankers and other commercial tankers holding up inside and outside the Strait Of Hormuz, this narrow stretch of water that's a key gateway in and out of the Persian Gulf for all this commerce.

因此，你不仅看到了人员伤亡带来的实际痛苦，还看到了经济上的冲击，现在你正在迫使海湾各国政府采取行动。

So you have the actual physical pain of casualties, you have the economic pain, and you're now forcing the hand of these various governments in The Gulf to do something.

它们大多希望置身事外，公开表示不希望自己的地区爆发战争。

They've wanted to stay on the sidelines for the most part, publicly saying they do not want a war in their region.

它们更倾向于寻求外交解决方案。

They would much rather have a diplomatic solution.

但现在，它们的国家和民众正遭受攻击。

But now their countries and their populations are coming under attack.

这不仅仅是海湾国家的问题。

And it's not just the Gulf countries.

是一些在该地区拥有大量人口的欧洲国家。

It's countries in Europe who have sizable populations in the region.

法国、英国这类国家，此前曾表示不会对伊朗采取任何进攻性行动，但现在却不得不帮助保护生活在这些国家的本国平民。

France, England, these kind of countries, which had said they would not participate in any kind of offensive action against Iran, are now in a position of having to help protect their civilians that are living in these countries.

所以，你所说的策略很明显，是伊朗要以一种非常真实的方式，尽可能多地将其他国家拖入冲突，甚至把欧洲也拖入其中，让这些国家纷纷给华盛顿打电话或发出声明，对特朗普总统说：坦白讲。

So the strategy, quite clearly, you're saying is for Iran to, in a very real sense, drag as many countries as possible into the conflict, even drag Europe into the conflict so that all these countries are placing phone calls or communiques to Washington and saying to president Trump, let's be honest.

只有你能在这里按下停止键。

You're the one who can pull the plug here.

鉴于我们这里正经历的所有痛苦，我们请求你这么做。

And so given all the pain that we're experiencing here, we're asking you to do that.

结束这场冲突。

Wrap this up.

这个策略有效吗？

Is it working as a strategy?

伊朗人给这种策略起了一个代号。

Well, the Iranians have a code name for this.

他们称之为疯狂行动。

They call it operation madman.

那么，这个疯狂的人是谁呢？

Well, who's the madman in that?

他们试图把自己塑造成一个疯子，基本上就是在说：你们必须采取行动了。

They try to present themselves as a madman and basically saying, you've gotta do something here.

现在有一些分析人士认为，这实际上正在对德黑兰政权适得其反，看看发生了什么。

Now there are analysts who are saying this is actually backfiring on the regime in Tehran because look what's happened.

你看到那些原本置身事外的国家，现在非常不情愿地表示：好吧。

You have all these countries that were originally sitting on the sidelines, and now very reluctantly, they're basically saying, okay.

我们不仅允许美国飞机使用我们的基地，更广泛地说，像英国这样曾短暂拒绝美国使用其基地的国家也是如此。

We're not only gonna allow American planes to use our bases in a broader sense in the case of Britain, which had very briefly denied US access to planes.

对。

Right.

但他们基本上是在说：好吧。

But they're basically coming in saying, okay.

我们将投入更多兵力，必要时甚至可能攻击伊朗。

We're gonna bring more forces in, and if need be, we may actually attack Iran.

有报道称，一些海湾国家正在考虑发动自己的打击行动。

There's some reports that some of the Gulf nations are considering taking strikes of their own

对。

Right.

主要是为了向本国公众表明：我们会挺身而出，保护你们。

To basically show their domestic populations, we're gonna stand up for you and protect you.

你说的恰恰相反，地区化战争是伊朗的策略，但结果可能是整个地区把战争反推回伊朗。

Well, you're saying the flip side of regionalizing the war, the Iranian strategy, is that the region might bring the war right back to Iran.

不过我想就这一点跟你核对一下事实。

But I do wanna fact check you for a minute on this.

我想到的阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林这些海湾国家，或者欧洲，它们在军事上到底算不算真正的盟友？

To what extent are the Gulf countries I'm thinking of The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, or Europe for that matter, are defined allies in a military sense.

它们是真正加入进攻行动，还是仅仅在保卫自身利益？

Are they actually joining the offensive effort rather than just defending their interests?

不。

No.

这是个很好的观点。

And it's a good point.

但他们没有袖手旁观、保持中立，而是至少以防御方式介入，部署了防空系统、其他飞机和舰船，以协助保护他们的部队。

But rather than sitting on the side and sitting on their hands and being neutral, they're now weighing in at least in a defensive way and bringing defensive assets, air defenses, other planes and ships that can help protect their forces.

这减轻了美国和以色列的部分负担，因为现在有这些盟友将部队和装备投入该地区，执行了几天前还完全由美国和以色列独自承担的任务。

This takes some of the burden off The United States and Israel to do some of the same if you have these kind of allies bringing their troops and assets into the region to do what was up until at least a few days ago was left solely up to The United States and Israel to do for themselves.

埃里克，在我们对话的前半部分，你提到了一个赛跑的比喻。

Eric, in the first half of our conversation, you brought up the metaphor of a race.

这场赛跑是伊朗剩余的弹药与美国、以色列削弱伊朗军事能力之间的较量。

The race between the munitions that Iran has left to fight back and that The US, Israel have to degrade Iran's military.

但这里似乎还有一场第二场赛跑，那就是该地区对痛苦的容忍度与不容忍度之间的较量。

It seems like there's a second race happening here, which is the region's tolerance for pain and its intolerance for pain.

因此，该地区有决心共同参战，或许让伊朗的生活变得极其艰难。

And therefore, its determination to collectively enter the war and perhaps make Iran's life really miserable.

而在第二场竞赛中，石油似乎成了一个巨大的痛点。

And it feels like a huge pain point in this second race is oil.

确实如此。

It is.

你显然面临着平民遭受攻击的肉体痛苦。

You have, obviously, the physical pain of your civilians being under attack.

但正如你所指出的，如今由于这场大规模袭击和由此带来的巨大不确定性，油价上涨，这些成本突然转嫁给了该地区的国家及其民众。

But as you point out, economically now, as oil prices are driven up by this tremendous attack and this all this uncertainty, now all these costs are suddenly being passed along to countries in the region and their populations.

全球物价将突然飙升。

And suddenly prices are gonna be skyrocketing globally.

因此，美国和以色列，以及它们在这场冲突中的名义盟友，现在能承受多少痛苦？能坚持多久？

So here again, how much pain now can The United States and Israel, along with their nominal allies in this, how long can they take?

它们能接受多少？

How much will they accept?

所以，如果目标是向特朗普总统施压，我们如今正在这一周看到这种压力。

So if the point is to apply pressure to president Trump, we're seeing it right now, this week.

当我们看到油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，而五角大楼表示要持续数周才能实现其军事目标时。

And as we see oil prices skyrocketing above a $100 a barrel and the Pentagon talking about this lasting for weeks before they achieve their military objectives.

这对美国消费者来说突然变得非常痛苦，他们本就对本国的通胀影响感到担忧。

This suddenly is starting to feel very painful for American consumers who are already concerned about inflationary effects in this country.

值得注意的是，伊朗领导人正在公开谈论这一点。

And it's worth noting that Iranian leaders are talking about this openly.

他们说，如果你认为现在的油价已经因为这场战争而很高了，那你就等着瞧吧。

They are saying, if you think oil prices are high now because of this war, you just wait and see.

油价还会继续攀升。

They're gonna go higher and higher.

到目前为止，他们几乎是在挑衅特朗普总统关于油价的问题。

And they're almost goading president Trump at this point on the subject of oil.

没错。

That's right.

他们几乎是在挑衅他继续发动这些攻击。

They're almost daring him to continue these attacks.

如果这意味着美国公民的油价涨到每加仑4到5美元，对伊朗政府来说反而更好。

And if it means 4 and $5 a gallon price at the pump for American citizens, all the better for the Iranian government.

埃里克，我们还没谈到一点，那就是伊朗在这场冲突中是否有盟友。

One thing we haven't yet touched on, Eric, is whether Iran has any allies in this conflict.

坦率地说，伊朗是世界上最为孤立的国家之一。

Iran is one of the loneliest countries, frankly, in the world.

但它长期以来与俄罗斯保持着紧密关系，而俄罗斯也乐于公开宣称自己正在与伊朗合作参与这场冲突。

But it has long maintained a strong relationship with Russia, And Russia has been kinda happy to advertise the fact that it's working with Iran in this conflict.

但这种帮助究竟有多重要呢？

But how meaningful is that help?

它对美国、以色列及其在该地区的盟友构成多大的威胁？

And how meaningful a threat is it to The US, to Israel, and their allies in the region?

比如，上周我们看到一些报道指出，俄罗斯正在向伊朗提供情报，精准定位美国舰船和部队在该地区的驻扎位置。

Well, we saw some reporting last week, for instance, that the Russians are providing intelligence to the Iranians, targeting intelligence to let them know the location of American vessels and troops in the region.

多年来，俄罗斯一直向伊朗提供此类信息和情报。

Now Russia has provided information like this and intelligence like this for the Iranians for many years.

显然，处于战争状态会带来一些不同，但我所接触的军方和情报官员普遍对此感到担忧。

Obviously, being in a war makes it a little bit different, but the military and intelligence officials I talked to, well, generally concerned overall about this.

他们并没有对此感到恐慌，认为这不会改变战争的性质，而且伊朗本身承受着巨大压力，也很难以任何方式利用这些俄罗斯情报。

Their hair wasn't on fire about this isn't gonna change the nature of the war, and the fact that the Iranians are under such pressure also made it unlikely they'd be able to utilize this Russian intelligence, in any way.

是的。

Mhmm.

但俄罗斯最终成了这场战争的最大受益者之一。

But Russia is turning out to be one of the great beneficiaries of this war.

弗拉基米尔·普京坐在莫斯科，心满意足地看着全球油价上涨。

Vladimir Putin is sitting fat and happy in Moscow watching that global price of oil go up.

对于俄罗斯石油来说，这意味着他的国库将流入更多资金，真有意思。

And for Russian oil, that means more money in his coffers Fascinating.

他再把这些钱四处分发。

As he spreads it around.

而且，或许还能为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争提供更多资金。

Well, and perhaps more money for the Russian war in Ukraine.

所以，非常讽刺的是，对于美国来说，这场战争可能在补贴俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争。

So quite perversely, if you're The United States, this war may subsidize Russia's war in Ukraine.

没错。

That's right.

正如你提到的，乌克兰局势也将给美国和欧洲各国政府带来更大压力，它们正在向乌克兰提供武器。

And then as you mentioned, Ukraine, this is also going to put more pressure on not only The United States, but European governments who are supplying weapons to Ukraine.

其中一些武器，它们现在可能想保留下来，以备在海湾地区使用。

Some of the very weapons that they're now gonna wanna hold on to to be able to use in The Gulf.

比如一些拦截导弹的系统，俄罗斯在过去几周和几个月里曾用这些系统对乌克兰城市进行致命打击。

Some of these interceptors, for instance, against missiles, which Russia has used so lethally against Ukrainian cities in the last several weeks and months.

到目前为止，俄罗斯在这场战争中看起来像是赢家。

So Russia is coming out looking like a winner in this war so far.

对。

Right.

战争往往带来许多意想不到的后果。

Wars have many unintended consequences.