美国林肯号上到底出了什么问题？

我叫戴安娜·邓恩。

My name is Diana Dunn.

我想把我的《纽约时报》账号分享给我的孙女们。

I would like to be able to share my New York Times account with my granddaughters.

我们住在一个非常偏远的地区。

We live in a very rural area.

我想分享我的账号，就是为了让她们多了解这个世界。

I would like to share my account just to increase their knowledge of our whole world.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

戴安娜，我们听到了你的需求。

Diana, we heard you.

这就是我们推出《纽约时报》家庭订阅的原因。

It's why we created the New York Times family subscription.

一份订阅，最多四个独立登录账号，可以给你生活中的任何人使用。

One subscription up to four separate logins for anyone in your life.

更多信息请访问nytimes.com/family。

Find out more at nytimes.com/family.

嘿。

Hey.

嗨。

Hi.

我是瑞秋·艾布拉姆斯。

It's Rachel Abrams.

我是《每日新闻》的主持人之一。

I'm one of the hosts of the daily.

很高兴见到你。

It's very nice to meet you.

是的。

Yeah.

嘿。

Hey.

我也很高兴见到你。

It's nice to meet you too.

我是《纽约时报》的瑞秋·艾布拉姆斯，这里是《每日新闻》。

From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily.

最近几周，海军士兵的家属们一直在对“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母上的状况发出警报。

In recent weeks, family members of sailors have been raising alarms about the conditions on board the USS.

亚伯拉罕·林肯号。

Abraham Lincoln.

这次部署的时间比原定计划长了很多。

This is a much longer deployment than it was supposed to be.

他们离开的时间比原定计划长得多，这真的很难熬。

They're gone so much longer than they were supposed to be gone, and it's hard.

船上有5000名军人，他们已经连续在海上待了将近九个月，没有踏上过陆地。

There are 5,000 service members on the ship, and they've been at sea for nearly nine months straight without stepping foot on land.

我总被人问，你丈夫什么时候回来？

I'm constantly getting asked when's when's your husband coming home?

而且你知道，你只能这么说，哦，好吧，我们想着是六月。

And, you know, you just have to say, oh, well, we're thinking June.

不对。

No.

我们觉得是七月。

We think July.

哦，我们想着是八月，但你也知道，我们现在还不确定，所以请为我们祈祷吧。

Oh, we think August, but, you know, we don't really know yet, so just keep us in your prayers.

我和其中一位水手的妻子聊了聊。

I spoke with the wife of one of those sailors.

她说这虽然不是她丈夫第一次出海执行任务，但却是他经历过的最艰难的一次。

She said this isn't her husband's first deployment, but it has been the toughest.

我实在没法想象自己被困在一个漂浮的铁盒子里，你知道的，不管多少天——我现在连具体天数都记不清了，但总之是两百多天，全天候二十四小时都待在里面。

I really cannot imagine being stuck in a floating box for, you know, however many I can't even I don't even know what the day count is now, but, you know, for two hundred plus days for twenty four hours.

她表示很担心船上的生活条件，也担心她丈夫能不能吃到足够的食物。

She said she's concerned about the conditions on the ship and whether her husband is getting enough food.

他给我发了一张他饭菜的照片，我一看，天哪。

He sends me a picture of his meal, and I'm thinking, oh my goodness.

他的盘子里只有几片看起来没煎熟的培根，还有几块鸡翅，大概几厘米高，就这些了。

On his plate, there was a few slices of bacon that did not look cooked and, like, chicken wings, like, couple inches tall one, and that was it.

他给你发那张食物照片的时候，你第一反应是什么？

When he sent you that picture of food, what was your first thought?

我当时就想，你饿不饿啊？

I was like, are you hungry?

这怎么行。

This is not okay.

我们指望这些人保卫国家，却连一顿饱饭都不给他们。

We're expecting people to fight for our country, and yet we're not giving them a full meal.

这让我太震惊了。

That blows my mind.

她说她和丈夫有时会失联好几个星期，她在新闻上看到美国水兵遭到袭击的报道。

She said she'd lost contact with her husband, sometimes for weeks at a time, and she watched reports on the news that American sailors were coming under attack.

她不知道他过得怎么样，而且他的归期一推再推。

She didn't know how he was doing, and his return date kept getting pushed later and later.

我能从他的文字里读出他的语气，他变得越来越疲惫了。

I can just, like, read his tone over the text, and he's just gotten more and more, like, exhausted.

所以我真的很担心他，也担心很多其他人在心理上承受的压力。

So I just worry about him and a lot of other people mentally.

我并不是指望他们的条件能像夏令营一样好。

I'm not expecting the conditions for them to be in to be summer camp.

他们在大海中央，周围都不是美国。

They are in the middle of the ocean, and they are surrounded by not America.

没有人选择这种生活是期待它有趣的。

Nobody enters this life expecting it to be fun.

这完全是另一种程度的糟糕。

This is a whole other level of bad.

今天，我的同事约翰·伊斯梅将解释林肯号上到底出了什么问题，这如何影响美军的作战能力，以及它对军人们造成了怎样的影响。

Today, my colleague John Ismay explains what went wrong on the USS Lincoln, how it could impact the US military's war fighting capability, and what kind of toll it's taken on the men and women in uniform.

是的。

Yes.

我们大概知道会面临什么，但实际情况比预想的要艰难得多。

We kind of knew what we were getting into, but this is way harder than what it should be.

今天是8月18日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, August 18.

约翰·伊斯梅，欢迎来到《每日新闻》。

John Ismay, welcome to The Daily.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

约翰，如果我没记错的话，你曾是海军，我们刚刚听到一位林肯号上服役军人的妻子的讲述。

So, John, you are a former Navy man, if I'm not mistaken, and we just heard from the wife of a service member aboard the USS Lincoln.

我想聊聊这艘船上的条件，以及这些情况如何反映在军队目前面临的更广泛的问题上。

And I wanna talk about sort of what the conditions on this ship have been like and how they fit more broadly into what the military is experiencing right now.

但我想先从你对这些问题的了解开始。

But I wanna just start with your understanding of some of the issues here.

约翰，能跟我们说说你是什么时候开始听说这艘船上的条件出现问题的吗？

John, tell us when did you first start hearing that there were issues with the conditions on board this ship?

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Sure.

我想大概几周前吧，我开始在社交媒体、网站或军事新闻媒体报道上看到一些迹象。

So, I think it was about a few weeks ago, I started to see indications on social media, websites or outlets that cover military news.

一开始，这些问题我们在其他部署任务中也听说过，比如士气受挫，因为任务延期了，还有收不到邮件、食物不够吃之类的麻烦。

And at first, they were issues that we've heard about from other deployments such as, you know, morale taking a hit because they've been extended, trouble getting mail, trouble getting enough food.

我收到过一些船上人员拍的食物照片，然后发给家人的。

And I've gotten some photos of meals that people have taken from onboard the ship and then sent to their family.

其中有一张是这次部署期间大多数人早餐的照片。

One was a photo of what breakfast was like for most of this deployment.

看起来就是一块华夫饼和两片香肠饼。

And it was sort of one square of a waffle and two sausage patties.

后来还有一张照片，展示了CNN记者和摄像组最近登船期间大家吃的饭菜是什么样的。

Then there was another photo showing what a meal was like when CNN had a reporter and a camera crew aboard recently.

那时候有鸡蛋，也有蔬菜。

Then there were eggs and there were vegetables.

桌上摆满了各种食物。

There was a whole bunch of food.

接着我又看到一张CNN离开后拍摄的餐食照片，结果又回到了那种相当简陋的口粮水平。

And then I got a photo of what a meal looked like after CNN departed the ship, and it was back to pretty meager rations.

所以，

So,

抛开食物问题不谈，还有更严重的指控。

you know, food issues aside, there were more serious allegations.

我们收到过报告，听说有一名水兵试图从林肯号上跳海。

We got reports or we heard reports that a sailor had tried to jump overboard from the Lincoln.

哇。

Wow.

我们还没有确认这个消息，所以还没有发布。

Now we haven't confirmed that, so we haven't published that.

对吧？

Right?

当心理健康问题公开后，这个故事才真正开始在全国新闻中引起关注。

When the mental health concerns became public, that's when the story really started to gain traction in the national news cycle.

这里发生的事情，在很多方面，是五角大楼高层领导对信任的背叛，因为他们未能提供那艘船上水手们避免困难所需的东西，而且

What's happened here is, in many ways, a betrayal of trust by the Pentagon's top leaders because they have failed to provide what the sailors on that ship need to avoid hardship and And

民主党议员也开始公开表态。

you had democratic lawmakers starting to speak out publicly.

而且，总统显然并不真正关心军队。

And, certainly, the president has shown that he just doesn't really care about the troops.

他对男女军人和他们的部署的态度，恰恰反映了他对他们的真实看法。

His lack of take or attitude about men and women and their deployments, you know, just kind of reflects what he actually thinks about them.

他更多把他们当作玩具，而不是真正的人，毕竟他们也是人。

He thinks about them more as toys, not the fact that they truly, at the end the day, are humans.

然后皮特·赫格塞斯站出来，公开否认了一切。

And then Pete Hegseth comes out and denies everything on the record.

完全是歪曲事实。

Completely misrepresented.

听好了。

Listen.

我们确保每艘船、每个船员、每位船长都能得到我们所能提供的一切。

We make sure that every ship, every crew, every captain has everything we can provide

在每一个时刻。

them at every single moment.

基本上就是说，没有任何问题。

Saying, essentially, there are no problems.

然后今天，特朗普总统。

And then today, you've got president Trump

你是个吵吵闹闹、咋咋呼呼的人。

You're a loud, boisterous person.

假新闻。

Fake news.

安静点。

Be quiet.

他对一个提问的记者发火了。

Who lashed out at a reporter who asked questions.

总统先生，林肯号上有足够的食物吗？

Mister president, is there enough is there enough food on the USS Lincoln?

是的。

Yeah.

有。

It is.

那是CNN的假报道。

That was a that was a CNN fake report.

然后基本上说，所有对他所作所为的批评都是假新闻。

And then said, essentially, that all criticism of what he's doing is fake news.

我周末参加了一个小组会议，有位海军上将过来见我。

I was at a group meeting and an admiral came up to see me over the weekend.

那是个大聚会，不过他碰巧是位退役的海军上将。

And it was at a big group, but he happened to be an admiral retired.

他说，先生，我待过的船在外面待的时间比这长多了。

He said, I've been on ships that are out there much longer than that, sir.

我认识林肯号上的人，他们说那艘船保养得非常好，照顾得也很周到。

And I know people on the Lincoln, they say it's beautifully maintained and beautifully taken care of.

尽管白宫这么说，但我的报道显示，这艘船面临的问题要大得多。

Despite everything from the White House, what my reporting showed is that there are much larger problems affecting the ship.

约翰，我们来谈谈具体细节吧。

Let's talk about the details of this, John.

关于这艘船的部署时长，有很多讨论。

There's been a lot of talk about the length of this deployment of this particular ship.

我想现在差不多已经九个月了。

I think we're going on about nine months right now.

请给我们解释一下，这次的情况有什么不寻常的地方，为什么大家这么关注这一点？

Explain to us what is unusual about that in this case and why people are focusing so much on that.

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

在和平时期，一艘军舰的部署时间通常是六个月左右。

So in peacetime, a, you know, deployment for a warship is generally about six months.

明白。

Mhmm.

航母通常会延长到七个月，甚至可能再长一点。

Carriers would often stretch out to seven months, maybe a little bit later.

九一一事件之后，八个月甚至九个月的部署变得相当常见，因为海军的航母数量有限。

After the nine eleven attacks, deployments of eight months, even nine months became fairly routine because there are only so many aircraft carriers the Navy has.

这次的不同之处在于，林肯号在11月21日出发，原本预计5月返回圣地亚哥。

What is different here is that the Lincoln having deployed on November 21 was expected to get back to San Diego in May.

而且到目前为止，我觉得他们已经被延期了两次，而且他们还不知道什么时候能离开中东，也不知道什么时候能回家。

And they've been extended, I think, twice at this point, and they do not have any date for when they're gonna leave The Middle East or when they're gonna get home.

明白。

Mhmm.

所以今天我们在这里谈话的时候，美国海军……

And so as we're here talking today, the USS.

亚伯拉罕·林肯号已经在海上航行了270天，船员们没有任何休息，也没有任何靠岸休假的机会。

Abraham Lincoln has been at sea for two hundred and seventy days without any sort of break for her crew, any liberty port.

靠岸休假就是让军人下船，稍微放松一下。

A liberty port meaning where the service members can get off the ship and get some kind of a break.

没错。

That's right.

打个比方，就像你连续工作将近一年，连一个周末都休息不了。

And the comparable idea is really just imagine doing your job for like almost a year without being able to take any weekends off.

嗯，确实。

And Mhmm.

哦，顺便说一下，你不能离开你的办公室或者那层楼。

Oh, by the way, you can't leave your office or the floor of

你的办公室。

your office.

对。

Yeah.

这种航母很大。

A carrier of this type is big.

它的长度比克莱斯勒大厦的高度还要长一点，比帝国大厦稍微短一点。

It's as long a little bit longer than the Chrysler Building is tall and a little bit less than the Empire State Building.

它基本上就是一系列连在一起的没有窗户的金属盒子。

It's basically a series of interconnected windowless metal boxes.

这是最简单的描述方式。

That's the easiest way to describe it.

你知道，有时候从一个舱室到另一个舱室，你得打开一扇水密门，然后关上门把它封好，才能从A点走到B点。

You know, sometimes to go from one compartment to another, you have to open a watertight door and then close it behind you to seal it off just to get from point a to b.

你可能得穿过机库甲板。

You may have to walk through the hangar deck.

你可能得走过各种各样的机械舱室。

You may have to walk through walk past all sorts of machinery spaces.

那里通常非常吵。

It's often very loud.

你知道的，我第一次服役结束后，听力受损了一段时间。

You know, I had hearing loss for a while after my first tour.

你们还得在那儿睡觉。

And you're sleeping there.

你和每天一起工作的那几十号人待在一起。

You're with the same few dozen people that you see every day that you work with.

没什么个人隐私可言。

You don't have much privacy.

而且工作时间通常都超过十二个小时。

And working days typically go longer than twelve hours.

你知道，一天工作十六、十八个小时并不少见。

You know, sixteen, eighteen hour days are not uncommon.

有些工作条件最差，我们称之为左右舷值班，就是上六小时班，休六小时，再上六小时，再休六小时。

And some jobs are sort of the worst conditions or what we call port and starboard watch, where you're on for six, off for six, on for six, off for six.

而在休息时间里，你既要睡觉，又要尽量放松或照顾自己，还得完成船上的其他所有任务。

And during that time off, you're balancing sleep and any semblance of relaxation or self care with all of your other duties on the ship that you have to do.

在如此紧张的环境下和同事一起被困在船上，再加上睡眠不足，这听起来确实很糟糕，简直像一场心理实验。

Being stuck on a ship with your colleagues under such intense conditions, that sounds frankly quite awful and almost like a psychological experiment when you throw in the lack of sleep.

你是说林肯号上的人已经这样干了将近一年了。

And you are saying the people on the Lincoln, they have been doing this for the better part of a year.

约翰，这种情况有多不寻常？

How unusual is that, John?

我们应该怎么看待这件事，和之前的军事部署相比呢？

How should we even be thinking about that in the context of previous military deployments?

我的意思是，今年就有一艘航母，在海上待了大约十一个月后返回诺福克，打破了自越南战争以来航母部署时间最长的纪录。

I mean, was one carrier just this year that came, you know, back to Norfolk after, like, eleven months at sea, and it broke a record for the longest carrier deployment since the Vietnam War.

但有一点很重要，即使是很多年前在越南海岸附近的航空母舰，每隔一两个月，它们通常会向东前往菲律宾的苏比克湾，那里有美国海军的大型基地。

But a really important thing to know is that even for the aircraft carriers that were off the coast of Vietnam all those years ago, every month or two months, they would generally head east to Subic Bay in The Philippines, where the US Navy had a massive base.

舰船可以补给、装弹、补充食物、水和弹药，所有需要的东西。

And the ship could refit, reload, food, water, ammunition, everything it needed.

但这些船员得不到这些。

And these people aren't getting it.

而且我觉得，即使是一支非常优秀的、训练有素的船员，时间长度也会成为一个问题，因为有些人反复做同样的事情时可能会变得自满。

And I think even for a really good crew, a well trained crew, it's the length of time that becomes a factor because some people can become complacent when they do the same thing over and over again.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，缺乏睡眠已经被证明，我觉得，连续清醒24小时就像血液酒精含量达到0.1一样。

You know, lack of sleep has been shown to you know, I think it was being awake for twenty four hours is like having a point one blood alcohol content.

疲劳会带来安全问题。

And fatigue creates safety problems.

你知道，这些水手在重型设备和机械旁工作，其中很多，如果不小心，会要你的命。

You know, these sailors are working around heavy equipment and machinery that a lot of which, if you're not careful, you will die.

你知道吗，如果你没有经过特殊训练，晚上是不能随便上航母飞行甲板的，得知道该站在哪里。

You know, if you're on the you can't go on the flight deck of an aircraft carrier at night without some special training on where to stand.

我是说，如果拦阻索断了，真的能把人切成两半，或者把腿打断。

I mean, if an arresting cable snaps, that can cut people in half literally, you know, take off their legs.

在这些部署任务中，死亡事件并不罕见。

Deaths on these deployments are not unheard of.

所以，长期疲劳才是导致人员受伤甚至更糟情况的原因。

And so chronic fatigue is what gets people hurt or worse.

听你这么说，感觉问题可能分两类。

So from what you're saying, it actually sounds like there maybe are two buckets of issues.

一类是长期部署带来的持续疲劳，这跟安全有关；另一类是船没法像平时那样正常补给。

Like, there are the issues that are coming from this ongoing fatigue from this extended deployment that are safety related, but also the ship just can't restock the way that it normally would.

对。

That's right.

现在，对于海上的军舰，它们可以进行所谓的海上补给。

Now, for warships at sea, they are able to do what's called an underway replenishment.

通常有一艘补给舰会跟着航母打击群。

There's usually a supply ship that accompanies a carrier strike group.

那艘补给舰能给你的战斗机和直升机加油，还能提供食物。

And that supply ship would be able to give you fuel for your jets and your helicopters and give you food.

你可能大概每三天就要补给一次。

You may be doing that about every three days.

但一般来说，出海三周后，蔬菜就没了。

But generally speaking, you know, three weeks into being at sea, vegetables disappear.

也就是说，沙拉就别想了。

You know, that means salads.

午餐和晚餐配的那些东西也没了。

That means, you know, things to have with lunch and dinner.

你基本上只能吃罐头和袋装食品。

And you're pretty much eating out of cans and and bagged food.

所以，如果能吃到新鲜蔬菜或水果，那真的能大大提升士气，因为你已经很久没吃到这些东西了。

So if you ever get fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, it can actually be a huge morale boost just because you haven't had these things for so long.

你提到两三个星期后，水果和蔬菜就吃完了。

You're mentioning after two or three weeks, you run out of fruits and vegetables.

而且提醒大家一下，我们说的是九个月的时间。

And just to remind everybody, we're talking about nine months here.

对。

Yeah.

你吃过脱水鸡蛋吗？

Have you ever eaten dehydrated eggs?

幸好没吃过。

Mercifully not.

没有。

No.

对。

Yeah.

在海军里，没人指望能吃上什么美食大餐。

Well, I mean, in the Navy, nobody's expecting a gourmet meal.

根据我的经验，我一直觉得数量就是质量。

From my experience, I always felt that quantity equals quality.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，只要你有足够的食物，那就行了。

Like, as long as you have enough to eat, that's kind of it.

辣酱能让食物好吃很多。

Hot sauce goes a long way in making things taste better.

但是根据我从林肯号船员家属那里收到的照片来看，食物似乎是定量配给的。

But based on the photos that I'm getting from family members of crew members on the the Lincoln, the food appears to be rationed.

看起来盘子里的东西并不是很满。

It doesn't appear that, you know, plates are very full.

这正好引出了我的下一个问题，约翰。

That actually leads me to my next question, John.

因为我觉得任何军人家属都会说，你看，我们预料到会有一定的艰苦。

Because I think that any military family would say, like, look, we expect a certain amount of hardship here.

我们这次采访的那位军人的妻子，她在这点上说得很清楚。

The wife of the service member that we spoke to for this conversation that I'm having with you, she makes this very clear.

但你能给那些可能不熟悉这种服役生活的人解释一下吗？

But can you explain to people that might be unfamiliar with this kind of service?

这些家庭预期中的艰苦，和现在实际发生的情况，有什么区别？

What is the difference between the hardship that these families know to expect and what is actually happening now?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，有些艰苦确实是水兵们预料之中的。

Well, I think that there are certain hardships that sailors definitely are expecting.

比如长期离家。

Long separations from home.

居住条件不如人意。

Living conditions not what you would prefer.

对吧？

Right?

这和那种没有明确期限的承诺是有区别的，而这种承诺开始让人觉得违背了对这些水兵的信任。

There's a difference between that and having an open ended commitment that starts to feel like it breaks faith with those sailors.

因为需要和领导之间建立某种信任，就是说，当我们说我们会离开这么长时间时，就真的会这样。

Because there needs to be some sort of trust with leaders that, hey, when we say we're gonna be gone this length of time, that that's what happens.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Mhmm.

所以，我的意思是，归根结底，普通的困难和近乎虐待的情况是有区别的。

So, I mean, I guess when it comes down to it, there is a difference between regular hardship and borderline abuse.

所以，我的意思是，我认为对于军队、海军以及美国中央司令部来说，

So, I mean, I think that for the services, for the Navy, for U.

还有国防部长基本上在强调战士精神、战争是地狱等等这些说法，

S.

我觉得这真的站不住脚。

Central Command, and for the Secretary of Defense to basically be saying warrior ethos, war is hell, all those things, I don't think that really cuts it.

你了解到是什么导致了这些问题？

What did you learn about what is driving all of these issues?

我觉得人们可能只是以为林肯号经历了这么多困难，是因为和伊朗的冲突。

Like, I I think people might just assume maybe that the Lincoln has undergone all this hardship just because of the fighting with Iran.

嗯，有句话说得好，后勤是关键。

Well, there's a saying that logistics is king.

而问题的核心就是后勤。

And that is the heart of this problem is logistics.

我在那个地区多次部署后了解到的情况不仅令人震惊，因为我们的政府一直没有坦诚相告，而且这不仅影响了林肯号上的生活质量和船员的生活条件，还对美国在该地区的军事行动能力产生了重大影响。

What I learned having deployed to that region multiple times was not only shocking because our own government hasn't been forthcoming or totally honest about this, but it has implications not only for life aboard the Lincoln, the quality of life for the crew, but major implications for The United States' ability to operate militarily in that region, period.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是乔纳森·奈特，纽约时报游戏部门的总经理。

I'm Jonathan Knight, and I'm the general manager of New York Times games.

如果你玩过我们的游戏，你可能会觉得它们有些特别。

If you play our games, you probably know there's something a bit different about them.

就像《纽约时报》的文章背后有作者一样，我们每天的谜题背后也有创作者。

Just like there are writers behind the articles you read in the Times, there are creators behind our daily puzzles.

特蕾西·贝内特会精心挑选每天的Wordle答案，让游戏保持新鲜和多样。

Tracy Bennett curates the day's Wordle solution to keep it lively and varied.

当阿卢创作每个连线板，包括那些想难倒你的所有分类时，萨姆·阿泽斯基会仔细检查拼字蜜蜂里的每一个字母、单词和全字母句，让各种水平的忠实玩家都能享受其中。

When Aloo creates each connections board, including all those categories that try to stump you, Sam Azerski combs through every last letter, word, and pangram in Spelling Bee so that loyal players of all skill levels enjoy it.

我们的谜题每天都是人工制作的，符合你对《纽约时报》的期待。

Our puzzles are human made every day with the standards you'd expect from The New York Times.

这很重要，因为当你选择花时间玩我们的游戏时，这段时间应该花得值得，用来解那些有挑战性、出人意料又让人开心的谜题，这些谜题都是为你精心打造的。

And this matters because when you choose to spend time with our games, it should be time well spent solving puzzles that are challenging, surprising, and joyful, puzzles handcrafted for you.

我们认为这值得投入，也值得付费。

We think that's something worth investing in and something worth paying for.

如果你也这么想，就从你喜欢的应用商店下载《纽约时报》游戏，或者访问nytimes.com/playgames。

If you think so too, download New York Times games from your favorite app store or go to nytimes.com/playgames.

那么，约翰，根据你的报道，你了解到是什么真正导致了林肯号上我们听说的这些情况？

So, John, from your reporting, what have you learned about what has actually led to these conditions on the Lincoln that we've been hearing about?

其实归根结底就一件事，那就是后勤。

It really comes down to one thing, which is logistics.

目前，海军方面也提到过该地区的一些后勤困难。

And right now, the Navy has kind of talked about some logistical difficulties in the region.

但实际上发生的情况是，战争第一天，伊朗就摧毁了海军在巴林麦纳麦的基地。

But what really happened is that the Navy's base in Manama, Bahrain was destroyed by Iran starting on the first day of the war.

那你能解释一下为什么那个基地这么重要吗？

And explain why that base matters here.

这个基地的名字叫巴林海军支援基地。

So the name of the base is Naval Support Activity Bahrain.

它是一个后勤枢纽。

It's a logistics hub.

要去波斯湾或阿曼湾的舰船上的人，都会先到巴林，然后坐直升机或者其他交通工具到船上。

There are people going to and from the ships in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf Of Oban would come to Bahrain first and get on a helicopter or, you know, something else to get to one of these ships.

食物、各种物资，包括邮件，都是先到巴林，然后再运到船上的。

Food, all sorts of things comes through the mail, all comes through Bahrain and then is sent to the ship.

而一艘补给船要想维持阿曼湾的打击群，可能得花一两天时间才能到巴林，然后还要卸货再返回。

And a supply ship trying to maintain a strike group in the Gulf Of Oman might take a day, maybe two days to get to Bahrain, and then time to unload and get back.

但现在，我被告知的是，巴林已经没了。

But right now, what I was told is that Bahrain is gone.

我当时就想，什么叫没了？

I was like, what what do you mean gone?

他们就说，不在了。

They're like, not there.

拜拜了。

Bye bye.

没了。

Gone.

对吧？

Right?

就是被摧毁了？

Like destroyed?

就是被摧毁了。

Like destroyed.

对。

Yeah.

我被告知那里基本上只剩一个海军留守小组，其他在基地工作的人都被疏散到了佛罗里达州的坦帕。

I was told that there's a, basically, a skeleton crew of Navy personnel there, and that everyone else who works at the base was evacuated to Tampa, Florida.

那里是中央司令部总部所在地。

And that's where Central Command headquarters is.

所以这意味着你的后勤补给线变得非常非常非常长。

And so that means that your logistic train is much much much longer.

所以距离可能不再是100英里，而是变成了2200英里，因为最近的不在伊朗武器射程内的基地是印度洋中间的一个小岛，叫迪戈加西亚。

So instead of maybe being a 100 miles, it's now 2,200 miles because the next closest base that is not within range of Iranian weapons is a tiny island in the middle of the Indian Ocean called Diego Garcia.

从阿曼湾——那两个航母打击群和所有驱逐舰所在的地方——到迪戈加西亚，光单程就需要超过五天。

And it would take more than five days just to get from the Gulf Of Oman, where those two carrier strike groups and all the destroyers are, to Diego Garcia.

然后你显然还得算上装卸货物的时间，然后再花五天多的时间才能回到那里。

And then you obviously have to factor in time to load and offload things, and then another five plus days to get back out there.

好的。

Okay.

所以基本上，林肯号航母和其他舰船一直依赖巴林的那个港口。

So basically, the USS Lincoln, other ships, they have been relying on this port in Bahrain.

那个港口被摧毁了，这意味着最近的一个港口也远得不行，导致供应链运转不畅。

That got destroyed, which means that the next closest is a port that is so far away that it's gumming up the supply chain works.

但约翰，我想问一个可能有点傻的问题，这两个港口肯定不是唯一有船需要的东西的地方吧，比如，我不知道，新鲜鸡蛋之类的。

But just to ask a really maybe a dumb question, John, surely these two ports are not the only places that have stuff that a ship might need, for example, like, I don't know, fresh eggs or whatever.

那为什么这艘船不能在其他地方停靠，补给一些水手们缺少的物资呢？

So why can't this ship dock anywhere else to pick up some of the supplies that the sailors are missing?

答案其实很简单。

The answer is really simple.

该地区任何能容纳航母这么大船的港口，都在伊朗导弹和无人机的射程之内。

Any ports in the region that could handle a ship the size of an aircraft carrier is also well within the range of Iranian missiles and drones.

如果你把一艘像航母这么大的船停在，比如说，阿联酋的富查伊拉港，那个港口在霍尔木兹海峡的阿曼湾一侧，那你就是活靶子。

And if you took a ship as big as an aircraft carrier and parked it at, say, the Emirati port of Fujairah, which is on the Gulf Of Oman side of the Strait Of Hormuz, you're a sitting duck.

你知道的，让这么大的船进出港口是个很耗时的过程。

You You know, it's a time consuming process getting a ship that size in and out of port.

这可不是能马上搞定的事。

It doesn't happen quickly.

你需要拖船来帮忙。

You need tugboats.

还需要引航员。

You need a harbor pilot.

所以，如果林肯号这样的船停靠在港口，比如富查伊拉，而卫星或其他手段探测到伊朗发射的导弹正朝这边飞来，那要把船启动并驶出公海，得花好几个小时。

So if a ship like the Lincoln was moored in a port, say Fujairah, and satellites, whatever, detected missiles coming their way from Iran, it would take hours and hours to get the ship underway and back out to sea.

这意味着，导弹打过来的时候，船还在那儿呢。

Meaning, the ship would still be there when the missiles would hit.

所以说，根本找不到足够安全的港口，能让像航空母舰这样的大型战舰停靠而不被摧毁。

So there are no ports that are safe enough to send a capital ship like an aircraft carrier and not have it taken out of commission.

这听起来确实像你提到的那样，在后勤决定一切的冲突中，简直是个巨大的后勤噩梦。

This sounds like, as you mentioned, a real logistical nightmare in a conflict where logistics are kinda everything, as you explained.

如果最近的港口要五天才能到，就像现在这种情况，这对林肯号具体会造成哪些严重影响？

If the only port is five days away, as it is in this case, what are the knockdown effects of that for the Lincoln specifically?

所以，当舰船在海上航行时，只要林肯号不靠港，就意味着很多必要的维护保养工作没法做，而这些工作是确保所有设备正常运行、从而完成使命所必需的。

So when a ship is out to sea, as long as the Lincoln has without a port call, it means there's just a lot of maintenance you can't get done that you need to do to keep everything working the way it has to to accomplish the mission.

也就是说，得看发动机状况如何，或者说对于航母来说，是核反应堆以及所有相关设备的状态。

Meaning, what kind of shape are the engines in, you know, or in the case of the carrier, you know, it's nuclear reactors and all the associated equipment.

而在飞行甲板上，有一层我们叫作防滑涂层的材料。

And up on the flight deck, there is this coating we called non skid.

甲板表面其实就像铺了波纹沥青，这样飞机和直升机上的人就不会打滑。

It's basically rippled asphalt that goes up on the deck to make sure that people in planes and helicopters don't slide around.

所以问题在于，经过成千上万架次的起降和滑行后，提供防滑效果的涂层会逐渐磨损、剥落，这就成了严重的安全隐患。

So the problem is that after thousands of aircraft sorties, takeoff, landings, taxiing on the flight deck, that coating that provides friction starts to break down, starts to chip off, and then it becomes a real safety hazard.

这类维修工作最好在港口进行。

And the best place to make repairs for things like that is in port.

因此，如果像林肯号这样的舰艇连续部署九个月甚至更久，它的状况肯定比只部署六个月就返航时要差。

So when you start keeping a ship out like the Abraham Lincoln out for nine months or longer, it's gonna necessarily be in worse shape than it would if it came back at six months.

而且这需要维护，你知道的。

And that's gonna take, you know, maintenance.

通常在船厂里，这可能需要几个月的时间。

Usually in a shipyard, that can take months.

航空母舰是有限的资源。

And aircraft carriers are a limited resource.

目前，海军只有11艘航母。

Right now, the Navy only has 11 of them.

明年会减少到10艘，因为有一艘航母要退役了。

And it's gonna go down to 10 next year when one aircraft carrier is decommissioned.

但还有一艘正在更换核反应堆的燃料棒。

But there's another one that is they're replacing the fuel rods in the nuclear reactor.

这需要好几年的时间。

That takes years.

还有一艘航母即将进行燃料更换。

You have another carrier that's about to be refueled.

华盛顿那边还有一艘在船坞里。

You have another one up in Washington that's in a shipyard.

所以能用的航母其实没那么多。

So there aren't that many of these things to go around.

约翰，那我们该从中得出什么结论呢？

And what are we supposed to extrapolate from that, John?

比如说，这些航母不能服役，对军队的更大影响是什么？

Like, what is the bigger impact on the military from these carriers being out of commission?

当你只有11艘航母，而现在第四艘正在维修，时间一长，你就没有航母可用了。

When you only have 11 carriers and you're burning through the fourth one right now, you do that long enough and you run out of carriers to use.

还有一件事我们还没谈到，就是海军在日本横须贺的美国第七舰队里，常年部署了一艘航母。

One thing I don't think we've talked about yet is that the Navy keeps an aircraft carrier forward deployed in Yokosuka, Japan in the US seventh fleet.

那艘船基本上就是应急用的，紧急情况下才动用。

That ship is basically there, in case of emergency, break glass.

你会把横须贺的航母调出第七舰队吗？

Do you send the carrier from Yokosuka outside of the seventh fleet?

而这就是现在正在发生的事情。

And that's exactly what's happening right now.

乔治·华盛顿号航母就是驻扎在日本的那艘，现在它正被派去接替林肯号。

The USS George Washington is the Japan based carrier, and that ship is being sent to relieve the Lincoln right now.

可能还需要一周或更长时间才能到达，但这就会产生所谓的“机会成本”。

Might still be a week or more for the ship to get there, but that creates what you call an opportunity cost.

如果乔治·华盛顿号不在南海，无法对朝鲜和中国形成威慑，那基本上就没辙了。

If the George Washington is not in the South China Sea as a deterrent for North Korea and China, you're basically out of luck.

你只能紧急调动圣迭戈所有可用的舰艇，尽快赶过去。

You would have to spin up anything that's available in San Diego to try and get out there as fast as you can.

但我从圣迭戈坐航母到横须贺，花了整整一个月。

But having ridden a carrier from San Diego to Yokosuka, that took us a month.

而且那还是在我们准备就绪的情况下。

And that was when we were ready.

所以，嗯。

So Mhmm.

乔治·华盛顿号去中东，意味着太平洋这边出现了一个很难填补的空缺。

The George Washington going to the Middle East means that there's a gap in the Pacific that is not easily filled.

所以基本上，跟伊朗开战才几个月，美国海军就已经在动用紧急预案了。

So basically, just months into this war with Iran, the US Navy is essentially using its break glass emergency plan.

没错。

That's right.

你知道，用足球来打比方的话，这就像把守门员都撤了。

You know, in soccer terms, it's like pulling the goalie.

对吧？

Right?

而驻日航母一直扮演的就是这个角色。

And that's what the carrier in Japan has always been.

现在这艘航母正驶向中东，导致南海和整个西太平洋都没有航母待命了。

And right now, that carrier is heading to the Middle East and leaves the South China Sea, all of the Western Pacific without a carrier ready to go.

这感觉有点像零和博弈了。

This is all feeling a little bit like a a zero sum game.

也许如果你在军队里待过，你早就知道这一点了。

And maybe if you paid into the military, you've known that the whole time.

但我忍不住想到我们最初开战的那些问题。

But I can't help but think about the issues that we went to a war over to begin with.

比如，嗯。

Like Mhmm.

比如伊朗的核计划，这个问题已经困扰了好几届美国政府。

Iran's nuclear program, for instance, and how that has been a long standing issue for multiple presidential administrations.

而你刚才描述的，资源上的压力，这种零和博弈，如果你愿意这么说的话。

And what you are describing, the strain that we are seeing on the resources, this zero sum game, if you will.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我不禁在想，也许正是这个问题，正是这个意图，让之前几届政府在面对同样棘手的伊朗问题时，没有更早地开战。

I can't help but wonder whether or not that very thing, that very issue intention is perhaps one of the reasons that previous administrations dealing with these same persistent problems of Iran didn't go to war to begin with earlier.

换句话说，这一切有多可预测？

Like, in other words, how predictable was all of this?

所以几十年来，海军一直假设任何对伊朗的攻击都会导致伊朗人立即封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

So for decades, the Navy has assumed that any attack on Iran would result in the Iranians immediately shutting down the Strait Of Hormuz.

你知道，他们有水雷，有导弹，等等这些。

You know, they have mines, they have missiles, all of that.

他们还假设伊朗会瞄准该地区的美国后勤设施。

And they've also assumed that Iran would target American logistics in the area.

巴林预计第一天就会被摧毁，而事实也正是如此。

Bahrain would be expected to be wiped out on day one, and that's exactly what happened.

伊朗第一天就封锁了海峡。

Iran closed the strait on day one.

所以，真的，只有当你以极度的自信和相信一切都会顺利的心态发动这场战争，你才会在没有替代方案的情况下发动战争，比如巴林基地，那里可以为船只补给。

So really, only if you launch this war with just supreme overconfidence and belief that everything is gonna work, do you launch that war without an alternative to say, the base in Bahrain, where you could resupply ships.

他们正在把物资运进运出迪戈加西亚岛，这在我看来，说明计划确实存在严重失误。

The fact that they're moving things in and out of Diego Garcia, to me, speaks to a real failure of planning.

我们最近几天听到政府说，林肯号航母上的水兵们很快就会得到援助。

We have heard in recent days from the administration that help is on the way for these sailors on the USS Lincoln.

我们了解到什么时候会发生，以及按计划进行的可能性有多大？

What do we know about when that will happen and how likely it will be that it works according to plan?

对。

Yeah.

来接替林肯号的那艘船是乔治·华盛顿号。

So the ship that's coming to relieve the Abraham Lincoln is the USS George Washington.

对吧？

Right?

上周中旬，我们了解到乔治·华盛顿号正在通过印度尼西亚水域的马六甲海峡。

Mid last week, we understood that the GW was going through the Strait Of Malacca in Indonesian waters.

大概需要一周，甚至更长时间才能到达那里。

Likely would take a week, maybe longer to get there.

你知道，就是粗略估算一下。

You know, just quick back of the envelope kind of math.

那段航程大概有三千英里。

It's likely that journey is about 3,000 miles.