谁在伊朗战争中占上风？

嘿，大家好。

Hey, y'all.

我是Wirecutter的基拉·布莱克韦尔，Wirecutter是《纽约时报》旗下的产品推荐服务，我负责测试床垫。

It's Kyra Blackwell from Wirecutter, the product recommendation service from The New York Times, and I test mattresses.

今天，我将测试七张床垫。

Today, I am testing seven mattresses.

这张床垫支撑性非常好。

This mattress is very supportive.

就是很容易就能翻身换姿势。

It's just, like, very easy to shift positions.

我们已经评估了近四打泡沫、弹簧和混合床垫。

We've considered nearly four dozen foam, innerspring, and hybrid mattresses.

我们关注边缘支撑、运动隔离和软硬度等级。

We're looking out for edge support, motion isolation, and firmness levels.

在Wirecutter，我们替你做足了功课。

At Wirecutter, we do the work so you don't have to.

如需独立的产品评测和面向现实世界的推荐，请访问 nytimes.com/wirecutter。

For independent product reviews and recommendations for the real world, come visit us at nytimes.com/wirecutter.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·凯特罗夫。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Ketroev.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

在伊朗战争进入第三周之际，美国和以色列已基本摧毁了该政权的导弹能力，击毙了关键领导人，并扰乱了其核心指挥系统。

Nearly three weeks into the war in Iran, The US and Israel have largely decimated the regime's missile capacity, taken out key leaders, and disrupted its central command.

然而，伊朗并未退缩。

And yet, has not backed down.

事实上，该政权变得更加强硬，造成的破坏也比以往任何时候都更严重。

In fact, the regime has become more hardened and is wreaking more havoc than ever.

今天，我的同事埃里克·施密特将讲述伊朗如何继续挑战世界上最强大的军队，以及特朗普总统如何摆脱这场冲突。

Today, my colleague Eric Schmitt, on how Iran continues to challenge the most powerful military in the world and what President Trump's options are for getting out of this conflict.

今天是3月19日，星期四。

It's Thursday, March 19.

所以，埃里克，我们在战争开始十天后请你上节目，目的是梳理当时的情况，不是基于那些难以捉摸的言辞或宣称的目标，而是基于实际发生的硬性事实。

So, Eric, we had you on the show ten days into the war to lay out where things stood, not in terms of rhetoric or stated goals, things that have been pretty hard to nail down, but in terms of hard facts, what has actually happened on the ground.

而如今，战争即将进入第三周的尾声，我们想再次做类似的事情。

And here we are almost at the end of week three of this war, and we wanna do something similar.

所以，请为我们梳理一下现状。

So please orient us.

目前局势如何？

Where do things stand right now?

正如你所说，我们现在差不多已经进入这场行动的第三周。

So here we are, as you said, nearly three weeks into this campaign.

从军事角度来看，指挥官们认为进展相当顺利。

And from a military standpoint, the commanders think they're doing pretty well.

美国正在以世界前所未有的方式摧毁激进的伊朗政权的军事力量。

The United States is decimating the radical Iranian regime's military in a way the world has never seen before.

他们认为自己实际上比原计划还要领先一些。

They think they're actually a bit of ahead of schedule.

在不到两周的时间里，我们已使伊朗海军丧失作战能力，并持续攻击其舰艇。

In less than two weeks, we've rendered the Iranian navy combat ineffective and continue to attack, naval vessels.

他们已经击中了120多艘伊朗海军舰艇。

They've hit over a 120 Iranian naval vessels.

其中包括在波斯湾布设水雷的船只。

This includes ships that lay mines in The Gulf.

他们已在伊朗境内打击了超过7800个目标。

They've struck more than 7,800 targets in Iran.

哇哦。

Wow.

这些目标包括导弹、导弹发射器和无人机储存设施。

These are things like missiles, missile launchers, drone storage areas.

这是美国和以色列共同行动，还是仅美国单独行动？

And this is The US and Israel or just The US?

这仅仅是美国的行动。

This is just The US.

哇。

Wow.

以色列空军与美国并行展开了自己的行动，特别是针对许多伊朗领导人。

The Israeli air force has carried out its own campaign in parallel with The United States, and they, in particular, have gone after many of the Iranian leaders.

以色列声称击中了伊朗安全部长的藏身之处。

Israel claimed to have hit the hideout of Iran's security chief.

领导层顶部又出现了一个重大缺口。

There's another big hole in the top of the leadership.

他们杀死了最高安全主管阿里·拉里贾尼。

They've killed the top security chief, Ali Larejani.

另一个人被以色列杀死，戈莫拉扎·苏莱曼尼。

Another killed by Israel, Gomorrahza Soleimani.

他是负责镇压一月份抗议者的民兵组织的头目，已被杀死。

He was the head of They've killed the head of the besiege, the militia group that ruthlessly suppressed protesters in January.

然后在周三，他们宣布杀死了伊朗的情报主管。

And then on Wednesday, they announced they killed the intelligence chief for Iran.

他负责监督该国整个全球恐怖网络。

He was responsible for overseeing the country's entire global terror network.

到目前为止，他们对这个国家的领导层实施了非常重大的打击。

These are very prominent strikes that they've carried out against the leadership of the country at this point.

显然，这些对政权结构造成了巨大打击。

So these are obviously massive blows to the structure of the regime.

不过，这些死亡在多大程度上真正影响了政权本身呢？

To what extent do those deaths, though, actually impact the regime itself?

因为看起来他们依然还在。

Because it seems like they're still there.

是的。

That's right.

政权一直相当坚韧。

The regime has been quite resilient.

伊朗已经对整个地区发动了反击。

Iran has been hitting back with attacks across the region.

我们正在使用水下飞行器袭击沿海的油轮

We're using underwater vehicles to hit tanker ships off the coast of

尽管他们失去了这些高层领导人，但他们已经将这一情况纳入了规划之中。

Despite the fact that they've lost these top leaders, they have factored that into their planning.

以色列也一直遭受攻击。

Well, Israel has also been under attack.

伊朗在昨晚发动了一轮新的报复性打击。

Iran launched a new wave of retaliatory strikes overnight.

在以色列确认击毙了伊朗伊斯兰共和国两位最具权势的官员后，伊朗显然正在展开反击。

Iran is clearly striking back here after Israel confirmed the killing of two of the Islamic Republic's most powerful officials.

他们正在寻找新的方式，包括使用集束弹药来突破以色列的防空系统，造成破坏，今晚还导致了人员死亡。

They're finding new ways, including through the use of these cluster munitions to get through Israel's air defenses, cause damage, and also tonight, fatalities.

即使以色列和美国军队持续削弱他们的反击能力，他们仍然能够继续作战。

And so they've been able to fight on even as the Israeli and American militaries continue to degrade their ability to fight back.

这非常重要，因为目前这正是军方所称的非对称战争。

And that's really important because right now it's what the military calls an asymmetric war.

伊朗政权尽管被削弱，但也清楚自己无法与以色列和美国军队正面抗衡。

The Iranian regime, weakened as it is, knows it can't go toe to toe with the Israeli and American militaries.

因此，目前他们几乎是在进行一场游击战式的行动。

So they're fighting almost a guerrilla style campaign at this point.

是的。

Right.

那么五角大楼是如何评估其进展的呢？

And how is the Pentagon assessing then its progress?

五角大楼如何看待这场战争至今的局势？

How does the Pentagon see the war thus far?

好吧，五角大楼从一开始就把这场行动设想为持续四到六周。

Well, again, the Pentagon looked at this as maybe a four to six week campaign from the start.

而我们现在正接近第三周的尾声。

And, again, we're coming toward the end of the third week.

根据他们的评估指标，他们在削弱和摧毁伊朗领导层、部分军事设施、伊朗的反击能力以及新武器生产能力方面，进展相当顺利。

And they feel by their metrics, they're doing pretty well at degrading and destroying the leadership, some of the military sites, Iran's ability to fight back, Iran's ability to produce new weapons.

所以他们认为自己的进展还不错。

So they think they're doing pretty well.

埃里克，就人员伤亡而言，各方的情况如何？

And, Eric, in terms of loss of life, where does that stand on all sides of this?

目前，《纽约时报》估计，这场战争中地面死亡人数至少已达2100人。

Well, right now, the Times estimates that there have been at least twenty one hundred deaths on the ground in the war so far.

天啊。

Wow.

其中超过1300人是平民，主要集中在伊朗境内。

Over 1,300 of those civilian deaths, mostly in Iran itself.

在伊朗袭击过的其他国家，如沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔，也出现了人员死亡。

There have been deaths in some of the other countries that have been attacked by Iran, Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

因此，这些国家也遭受了损失。

So those countries have suffered as well.

在美国方面，阵亡人数已上升至13人，另有数十人在不同国家的多次袭击中受伤，涉及多达七个不同国家。

On the American side, the death toll is now up to 13 that have been killed in action with scores of others being injured in various attacks in as many as seven different countries.

而且，显然，所有这些都造成了悲惨的生命损失。

And, obviously, all of that is tragic loss of life.

在美国这边，这个13人的数字，如果从五角大楼的角度来看，算低吗？

On the American side, is that number, that 13, is that low if you're the Pentagon?

我的意思是，当你考虑到这里所进行的行动规模以及所花费的时间时。

I mean, when you just think about the level of operation that is being carried out here and the time that it's taken.

没错。

That's right.

任何一名美军士兵的阵亡都是悲剧。

Any death, any US service member, combat death is tragic.

但我认为，大多数指挥官会说，尽管这些数字令人痛心，但仍然相对较低。

But I think most commanders would say, as tragic as these numbers are, that it's still on the relatively low side.

情况本可能变得更糟。

Things could have gotten much worse.

显然，这六名美军士兵的死亡是由于上周在伊拉克西部两架加油机相撞造成的，这本身是一起事故。

Obviously, about six of these American deaths came when two refueling aircraft collided over Western Iraq last week, so that's an accident itself.

但在战争第一周的第二次简报中，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯表示，该地区约5万名美军中，有90%已撤离了他们在该地区的主基地。

But it was interesting in the second briefing during the first week of the war, secretary Pete Hegseth said that about 90% of the 50,000 American troops in the region had been moved away from their main bases in the region.

这反映了他们对潜在伤亡的担忧。

That reflected the concern they had with potential casualties.

因此，仍有数千名美军驻扎在地面，但真正仍在原地并面临风险的是主要作战力量，而非可能成为伊朗导弹和无人机更大规模打击目标的广泛部队。

So you've got several thousand American troops still on the ground, but it's really the main operators that are still in place and at risk as opposed to a much larger potential target set for Iranian missiles and drones.

好的。

Okay.

所以总的来说，听起来五角大楼觉得自己正在成功执行军事任务。

So bottom line, it sounds like the Pentagon is feeling like it's executing its military mission successfully.

不过我听出你话里有转折，因为你一直特别强调军事上的成功。

I do hear a but, though, in what you've been saying because you've been careful to emphasize military success.

是的。

That's right.

因为另一方面，还有政治目标。

Because on the other side of the coin, there are political goals.

当然，总统在过去几天里提出了好几个目标，其中一些似乎相互矛盾。

And of course, the president has been articulating several over the last several days, some of which seem to conflict with each other.

尤其是在战争第一天，他曾提到要彻底推翻伊朗政权。

And certainly on the first day of the war, talked about regime change altogether in Iran.

但他似乎已经放弃了这一立场。

He seems to have moved away from that.

他现在强调要剥夺伊朗发展核武器的能力。

He talks about denying Iran's capability to ever develop a nuclear weapon.

没错。

Right.

他还谈到要摧毁伊朗在该地区投射力量的能力。

He talks about devastating Iran's ability to project power in the region.

也就是它未来威胁美国及其邻国的能力。

That is its ability to threaten not only The United States, but its neighbors in the future.

因此，随着我们进入第三周的尾声，目标和最终目标都在不断变化。

And so it's a shifting array of targets and also a shifting end state as we come to the end of this third week.

对。

Right.

正如你所说，尽管伊朗的军事能力已经遭到严重削弱，但该政权并未退缩。

And as you've said, despite all of the decimating of Iran's military capacity that has happened, the regime is not backing down.

所以请解释一下这是为什么。

So just explain that.

我们正在看到什么？

What are we seeing?

我们主要看到的是，伊朗军队的资源日益减少，因此他们在目标选择上非常谨慎。

Well, the main thing that we're seeing is with the dwindling amount of resources that the Iranian military has, they're being very selective in their targeting.

他们仍在试图打击美国在该地区的军事基地和大使馆。

They're still trying to hit American bases, American embassies in the region.

但最重要的是，他们现在正进入一个新阶段，经济战可能是他们最重要的工具。

But their most important thing is they're basically now entering a new phase where economic warfare is probably their biggest tool.

因此，他们现在正在针对美国和国际社会的经济脆弱性发起攻击。

So now what they're doing is they're going after the economic vulnerabilities of The United States and the international community.

你指的是霍尔木兹海峡。

You're talking about the Strait Of Hormuz.

没错。

Exactly.

这条狭窄的战略水道是波斯湾内外大量国际贸易往来的必经之路。

This narrow strategic waterway through which so much international commerce flows in and out of the Persian Gulf.

他们仅用少量水雷——《纽约时报》报道称——但仅凭袭击的威胁，就已使国际商业流量急剧减少，这正是当前政府最担心的问题，因为这已经在全球范围内引发了经济震荡。

And what they've been able to do is with a handful of mines, The New York Times has reported, but just the threat of attacks, they basically brought international commerce to a trickle, and that's the main concern right now of the administration because it's sending global shock waves in terms of the economic impact this is already having.

埃里克，为了更清楚地了解实地情况，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡阻碍航运的方式并非只是理论上的威胁。

And, Eric, just to understand the situation on the ground, the way that Iran is holding up traffic in the Strait Of Hormuz, it's not just theoretical threats.

对吧？

Right?

确实发生过实际的袭击。

There have been actual attacks.

没错。

That's right.

我认为将近20艘不同的油轮或货轮已经遭到袭击。

I think nearly 20 different tankers, whether oil tankers or cargo tankers, have been struck.

哇。

Wow.

这确实对其他航运公司及其保险公司形成了实际威慑，他们原本可能想让船只驶出波斯湾，或者现在有越来越多的船只正等待进入波斯湾。

And that has a real deterrent on other shipping companies and their insurers who might want to send ships either out of The Gulf or a growing number of ships that are waiting on the other end to come back into The Gulf itself.

埃里克，你能具体解释一下他们是如何在战术层面上袭击船只的吗？他们具体怎么做，用的是什么武器？

And, Eric, can you just explain how exactly they're hitting ships just on a tactical level, what they're doing, how they're doing it, and with what weapons?

比如，这到底是怎么发生的？

Like, how does this work?

当然。

Sure.

主要有三种方式。

There are three main kinds.

一种是他们可以在水中布设水雷，据信伊朗军方拥有大约五千到六千枚水雷。

One is there are mines that they can put out in the water, and the Iranian military is believed to have somewhere between five and six thousand minutees.

实际数量可能更多。

It may have actually been more.

哇哦。

Woah.

这些水雷可以漂浮在水面，也可以附着在波斯湾狭窄海域的海底，它们可以脱离并以这种方式攻击军舰。

And these are mines that actually can float on the surface or they can be attached to the seabed in the narrow bottom of the Persian Gulf, and they can, you know, detach and attack naval ships that way.

这是一种方式。

So that's one way.

另一种方式是从海峡以北的伊朗领土沿岸发射导弹。

Another way is just from missiles that can be launched from the shoreline just to the north of the Strait is Iranian territory.

无论是巡航导弹还是其他类型的导弹，它们都可以向船只发射，造成各种破坏。

And so whether they're cruise missiles or other kind of missiles, they could fire at ships and cause all sorts of other damage.

另一种手段是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队拥有数十艘，甚至数百艘快艇。

Another means is Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has scores, if not hundreds of speedboats.

快艇？

Speedboats?

是的

Yeah.

这些快艇可以四处移动，已经多次骚扰过海军航运。

Speedboats that can go around and they've harassed naval traffic.

你想象一下，有个人坐在一艘快艇上，拿着火箭推进榴弹，突然间他就能逼近到目标几百米内，那就完了。

And you've got some guy on one of these speedboats with a rocket propelled grenade, and suddenly he could get within just a couple 100 meters of a target, and there you go.

因此，伊朗有多种手段可以威胁航运，这对进出这一战略水道的交通造成了极其严重的影响。

So there are multiple means that Iran has to threaten shipping, which has really had a very severe effect on traffic moving in and out of that strategic waterway.

是的

Yeah.

我的意思是，当你想象一艘载着火箭推进榴弹的快艇穿行而过，或者一艘漂浮水雷时，这充分凸显了伊朗多么灵活地就能封锁这个对全球经济至关重要的咽喉要道，而这种能力似乎并未受到迄今为止极为成功的针对他们的军事行动的显著影响。

I mean, when you imagine a speedboat coming through with an RPG on it or, like, a floating mine, it really underscores the extent to which Iran can hold up this choke point for the entire global economy, really, in a super nimble way that doesn't seem to be all that affected by this enormously successful thus far military campaign against them.

没错。

That's right.

就在周二晚上，他们宣布美军已投放了数枚重达5000磅的穿透式炸弹，目标是位于霍尔木兹海峡沿岸的导弹发射井。

Just on Tuesday night, they announced that the US military has dropped several 5,000 pound penetrating bombs that go to missile silos that are right along the shoreline of the Strait Of Hormuz.

但问题是，即使你消除了95%、98%、99%的威胁，仍然会存在那1%甚至更小的概率，某种火箭或导弹可能突破防线，损坏或摧毁一些宝贵的船只。

But the problem here is even if you get 95, 98, 99% of the threat eliminated, there's always gonna be that 1% chance or less that some kind of rocket or missile could get through and damage or destroy some valuable ships.

是的。

Yeah.

而且伊朗似乎能够在高层领导不完整的情况下指挥这些袭击。

And it seems as though Iran has been able to direct these attacks without their senior leadership fully intact.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

这主要是因为伊朗建立了一种高度分散的攻击体系。

And that's mainly because what Iran did is they had a very decentralized system of attack.

他们采用了一种所谓的‘马赛克防御’体系。

They have what's called a mosaic defense.

他们大致划分了30个不同区域，分别部署了防御力量。

They have some 30 different districts, basically, that they've assigned defenses to.

因此，即使你摧毁了德黑兰的中央指挥控制系统，或情报部门、军方或伊斯兰革命卫队的任何一位重要领导人，这些独立的地区指挥官也已拥有既定的总体指令，能够继续使用他们现有的武器发动攻击。

So that if you knock out the central command and control in Tehran or any one of these important leaders in the intelligence service or the military or the IRGC, these independent districts, their commanders already have a set of general instructions, and they can continue carrying out attacks with the weapons that they have.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，明确地说，我们正看到世界上最强大、最先进的军队，被一个严重削弱的国家所采用的完全去中心化策略所阻滞，而这个国家的导弹能力已有90%被摧毁。

I mean, just to be crystal clear here, we are seeing the most powerful and sophisticated military in the world being stymied, essentially, by this totally decentralized strategy carried out by a seriously weakened country that has had 90% of its missile capacity destroyed.

显然，这并不新鲜。

Obviously, it's not new.

我们过去也见过非对称战争。

We've seen asymmetric warfare in the past.

但伊朗能够完全控制这条极其重要的水道，这实在令人震惊。

But the fact of Iran being able to exercise complete control over this hugely important waterway is wild.

对。

Right.

而这正是美国军队所面临的挑战。

And that's the challenge that the American military faces.

但这也是特朗普总统面临的挑战，因为他要求该地区和北约的各个盟友提供船只和其他资源，以帮助保卫海峡。

But it's also a challenge that president Trump faces because he has demanded that various allies both in the region and NATO allies pony up ships and other resources that could help, you know, defend the strait.

所以这既是军事问题。

So it's it's both a military problem.

你该如何应对这一威胁？

How do you get at the threat?

但它正越来越多地演变为一个政治问题。

But it's emerging more and more as a political problem.

你该如何调动国际社会的资源？

How do you marshal the resources of the international community?

因为每个人都受到了影响。

Because everybody's affected by this.

全球经济也受到了影响。

The global economy is affected by this.

但伊朗人知道，这是他们真正的王牌。

But the Iranians know this is their real ace in the hole.

这是他们的筹码。

This is their leverage.

这是他们的筹码。

This is their leverage.

只要他们能保持这种经济上的影响力，就会对最终决策产生很大影响。

And as long as they can hold on to it, again, as an economic leverage, they have, you know, a lot of influence over this final decision.

好的。

Okay.

我想问问总统，他是否事先充分理解并预判到这些海峡问题会发生，而且会严重到如今这种程度。

I wanna ask about the president and the extent to which he understood and calculated that these issues with the straight were gonna happen and were gonna happen to the extent that they have.

因为正如你本周所说，我们看到特朗普向美国的欧洲和亚洲盟友寻求帮助，以解决这一问题。

Because as you said this week, we saw Trump ask for help from his allies, from European and Asian allies of The United States to help solve this problem.

当这些盟友不愿配合时，他又批评了他们。

He then criticized them when they were reluctant to do so.

而这是在他没有事先与他们协商或寻求合作的情况下发生的。

This is after he didn't really consult them or seek partnership in advance of this war.

一开始，他表现得好像美国绝对不需要帮助。

In the beginning, he acted as though The United States definitely didn't need help.

这让我觉得他可能没有预见到这个问题。

It suggests to me as though he might not have foreseen this problem.

我们到底知道什么？

What do we know?

我们知道的是，包括参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军、美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在内的多位情报负责人和军事指挥官都曾向总统及其高级顾问简报过情况。

Well, what we do know is that both intelligence leaders and military commanders such as general Dan Cain, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Admiral Brad Cooper, who's the head of US Central Command.

中央司令部正是实际执行此次行动的军事指挥机构。

That's the military command that's actually carrying out the operation.

他们在战争爆发前就已提前向总统及其高级顾问进行了汇报。

They briefed to the president and his senior advisers well in advance of the war itself.

他们指出，这完全是可预见的，因为霍尔木兹海峡的问题并非新问题。

And they pointed out this was very much predictable because the problem of the Straits Of Hormuz is not a new problem.

你可以回溯到上世纪80年代的两伊战争，当时就已经是这个问题了。

This is something you can point back to, for instance, in the Iran Iraq War of the 1980s, and it was a problem then.

对。

Right.

或许让一些军方官员，我认为也包括白宫一些人感到意外的是，伊朗对其邻国发动攻击的激烈程度。

What was perhaps took some military officials and certainly some in the White House, I think, off guard was, a, the extent that Iran would attack its fellow neighbors, its neighboring countries with the ferocity that it did.

国防部长佩特·赫格塞斯甚至承认了这一点。

Defense secretary Pete Hegseth has even acknowledged that.

我认为另一点是，虽然这一直被视为威胁，但许多人认为伊朗不会立即动用这一手段。

I think the other thing was, while obviously this was always seen as a threat, many believed that the Iranians wouldn't reach for this card right away.

但问题是，情报界也曾通报过：如果伊朗认为政权面临生存威胁，他们可能会更快地动用这张王牌——封锁霍尔木兹海峡，远超本政府的预期。

But the problem with that is it's also been briefed by the intelligence community was that if Iran believed that it was an existential threat to the regime, that they might reach for that ace in the hole, bottling up the Strait Of Hormuz faster than certainly this administration anticipated.

美国当时并没有部署足够的海军力量来立即应对这种威胁。

The US did not have the naval assets in place to deal with this kind of a threat right away.

他们的扫雷能力已经过时。

Their mind sweeping capabilities antiquated.

他们的一些舰船甚至现在都不在波斯湾地区。

Some of the ships that they've got aren't even in the Gulf Region now.

其中两个在亚洲，而且他们并未为诸如护航油轮行动这类应对措施争取任何国际支持。

Two of them are in Asia, and they hadn't marshaled any kind of international support for the kind of remedies such as a tanker escort operation that you might need.

所以，尽管这一点是可以预见的，但我认为伊朗政权如此迅速且大规模地采取这一举措，让一些美国官员措手不及，现在他们正在一定程度上努力追赶。

So this is something that while it was predictable, I think the way in which the Iranian regime reached for this option quickly and with as broad strokes that it did, I think took some American officials off guard, and now they're playing catch up to some extent.

埃里克，我想再多留一分钟，因为航道长期关闭造成了极大的混乱，你接触的五角大楼人士是否承认这是一次严重的误判？

Eric, I wanna just stay here for one more minute because of the extreme havoc that has been wreaked by the straight being shut down for so long, do the Pentagon folks that you talk to acknowledge that this misread was a colossal failure?

他们是否认为这是一个本可避免的重大错误？

Do they look at this as a really big mistake that could have been avoided?

没有。

No.

他们仍然表示，这本就在他们的计划之中。

They still say this would have been in their planning all along.

也许在他们的计划中，不必这么快就动用这一招。

Perhaps it wouldn't have had to be an address this quickly in their plan.

他们原本希望先逐步打击主要目标，比如导弹发射器。

They would have liked to have, battered away at their main target sets, the missile launchers, of course.

你知道，他们想持续打击伊朗的军事反击能力。

You know, they wanna hammer away at Iran's military capability to fight back.

这就是他们正在做的。

That's what they're doing.

而如何应对这种经济问题，可能只是次要的。

And how you deal with this kind of economic problem was maybe more secondary.

当然，这在计划中是有考虑的。

Certainly was in the plan.

但现在他们必须加快应对这一威胁，因为它已成为白宫面临的重大政治和经济问题。

It's just now they have to accelerate how you deal with this threat because it's become such a major political and economic problem for the White House.

好的。

Okay.

既然我们知道伊朗人将此视为生存威胁，并且基本上表示他们愿意无限期地战斗下去。

So now that we know the Iranians are seeing this appropriately as existential threat and are essentially saying that they are willing to fight indefinitely.

随着石油局势每天变得更加严重，我们知道总统不希望看到巨大的经济后果持续下去。

Now that the oil situation is getting more and more serious by the day, we know the president doesn't want to see a huge economic fallout continue.

我们该如何摆脱这种困境？

What are the ways out of this?

所以选项都不好。

So the options are not good.

对总统来说，这些选择基本上从糟糕到更糟，再到最糟，而他和他的高级顾问们现在正在权衡这些决定。

They basically range from bad to really bad to worse for the president right now, and those are the kind of decisions that he and his top advisers are now weighing.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是黛博拉·哈曼。

I'm Deborah Khaman.

我是《纽约时报》的调查记者。

I'm an investigative reporter at The New York Times.

当我提到房地产时，我猜你想到的是租金成本、市场状况，或者按揭利率是否会上升。

When I say real estate, I'm guessing you're thinking about things like the cost of rent, what the market looks like, whether or not mortgage rates are gonna go up.

我关注的是这些数字背后发生的事情。

What I do is I look at what goes on beneath those numbers.

那些多年来一直相对隐身的行业操盘手。

The people running the industry who for so many years have been relatively invisible.

我越深入调查，就越发现有人在不道德地运作，而他们的不道德行为影响着每一个美国人。

And the more that I look into it, the more that I find there are people operating unethically, and their unethical behavior affects every single American.

如果我们只关注数字，那就像是报道选举结果却不关注政治家。

If we only focus on the numbers, it's like covering the results of an election and not looking at the politicians.

要了解这个系统为何如此，你必须理解背后做决策的人。

To know why the system is the way it is, you have to understand the people making decisions behind it.

在《纽约时报》，我们从不只停留在表层讲故事。

At The New York Times, we don't ever tell a story at just the top level.

我们总是深入一层，帮助读者更好地理解某事不仅是什么，为什么是这样，以及是谁导致了这种状况。

We're always looking a little bit deeper to help readers better understand not just what something is, but why it is, and also who's causing it to be that way.

您可以在 nytimes.com/subscribe 订阅《纽约时报》。

You can subscribe to The New York Times at nytimes.com/subscribe.

好的。

Okay.

埃里克，如果我们考虑从你的说法中‘不太好’到‘非常糟糕’再到‘更糟’的选项，我们应该从哪里开始？

Eric, if we are looking at options that range from your words, bad to super bad to worse, where should we start?

目前有哪些方案？你认为美军现在最可能采取的路径是什么？

What's on the table, and what's the likeliest path that you think the US military will take now?

第一个选项是如何应对我们一直在讨论的霍尔木兹海峡问题。

So the first option is how do you deal with this problem of the Strait Of Hormuz that we've been discussing.

对。

Right.

其中一个方案是美国海军可能联合其他国家，开展油轮护航行动，即由军舰护送商船离开波斯湾，再护送其他船只返回。

And one of the options on the table is for the US Navy, perhaps with other countries, to basically conduct tanker escorts where you have navy ships that would escort commercial vessels out of the Persian Gulf and then take other ships back in.

这些护航舰很可能是装备了特殊雷达的驱逐舰，能够追踪来袭导弹、应对无人机等。

These are probably be Navy destroyers that are equipped with special radar that can track incoming missiles, deal with drones, that kind of thing.

它们几乎肯定会配有空中无人机和直升机，用于探测不仅在空中、也在海上的无人机。

They would almost certainly be accompanied by drones and helicopters overhead that could also detect drones not, you know, only in the air, but in the sea.

哇。

Wow.

他们会关注海岸线上的威胁，并留意我们之前提到的载有武装人员的快艇，这些快艇可能发射火箭推进榴弹。

They would be looking for threats on the shoreline, and they'd be keeping an eye out for those speedboats that we talked about with the gunmen on board who might fire an RPG vessel.

因此，这将是一次非常复杂的行动，需要部署多达12艘左右的这种专用驱逐舰，引导一定数量的商船通过这条最窄处仅21英里的海峡。

So it would be a very complex operation where you'd have to have dedicated as many of 12 or so of these specialized destroyers leading some number of commercial vessels through this straight, which is 21 miles at its narrowest point.

你们要穿过航道。

You're going through channels.

而且，在通过时，他们必须时刻警惕随时可能出现的各种威胁。

And, they're having to go through this as they look for all these different threats that could pop up at any given time.

如果仔细分析，导弹击中其中一艘军舰、导致美国水兵受伤或阵亡的可能性，也绝非遥不可及。

And if you look at it, the possibility of a missile getting through, one of these warships getting hit, and maybe American sailors being wounded or killed, That's also very much a distinct possibility.

对。

Right.

而最终的决定权在于这些船只的船东及其保险公司：即使有美国军队、或许还有其他提供舰船的国家军队的保护，是否值得冒此风险让货物通过？

And the ultimate decision here will rest with the shipping companies that own these vessels as well as their insurers to see, is it worth even with the protection of the US military and perhaps the militaries of other countries that donate ships, is it worth the risk of getting your cargo through?

他们必须权衡这种风险，与等待某种外交解决方案之间的利弊，而目前来看，达成此类方案的可能性微乎其微。

That's the risk that they have to balance versus holding off and waiting for some kind of diplomatic solution, which right now the chances look quite remote of achieving anything like that.

是的

Yeah.

我无法想象自己是一名船长，要驾驶这样的油轮进行这样的航行。

I cannot imagine being a captain on one of these tankers imagining such a voyage.

所以这个选择确实很糟糕，风险极高。

So that option does sound bad, does sound incredibly risky.

下一个是什么？

What's the next one?

第二个主要选择是占领一个叫作卡吉岛的地方。

So the second main option is basically taking over a place called Qaj Island.

这是波斯湾北部、伊朗海岸附近的一个小岛，也是伊朗主要的石油枢纽。

This is a small island in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast, which is Iran's main oil hub.

大约90%的石油产量都经过这个地方。

About 90% of its oil production go through this place.

就在上周，根据特朗普总统的命令，美军轰炸了那里的军事设施。

And just last week on president Trump's orders, the US military bombed the military installations.

这个岛上超过90个目标被击中。

Over 90 targets were hit on this island itself.

这些是保护当地石油基础设施的军事设施。

These are the military emplacements that protect the oil infrastructure there.

当时总统表示，我命令五角大楼避免打击石油基础设施，因为这不仅会对伊朗的经济造成长期影响——如果将来我们想帮助其重建经济的话——也会对全球经济造成冲击，毕竟伊朗石油通过霍尔木兹海峡持续输出，一旦切断这一通道，后果不堪设想。

Now the president at that time said, I ordered the Pentagon to avoid hitting the oil infrastructure because of the long term economic impact this would have not only on Iran when the time comes, if you wanna help rebuild its economy, but also the impact it would have on the global economy, the shock that would have of taking, you know, the Iranian oil such that which continues to flow through the Strait Of Hormuz, by the way, taking that off the table.

对。

Right.

想象一下，发动一次袭击直接摧毁伊朗石油经济的全部基础设施，这听起来完全适得其反。

It sounds completely counterproductive to imagine a strike that would just blow up the entire infrastructure of Iran's oil economy.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

那么下一个方案是什么？

So what's the option?

好的。

Okay.

所以一个选择是调动正在从太平洋地区驶来的海军陆战队，让他们实施两栖登陆或其他军事行动，以夺取这个战略岛屿的控制权，从而迫使伊朗政权在其他战线上让步，因为美国人控制着伊朗这个极其重要的经济枢纽。

So one option is to take those marines that are steaming, you know, from the, Pacific region, and they have them do some kind of amphibious landing or some other kind of military operation to seize control of this strategic island and pressure their regime to concede on other fronts because the Americans control this very important economic hub for Iran.

但它们得穿过霍尔木兹海峡，对吧？如果我没记错地理的话？

But they'd have to go through the Strait Of Hormuz, right, if I have my geography right?

我的意思是，我们说的是海军陆战队从水里冒出来，但在到达之前，他们得经历一段艰难的旅程。

I mean, we're talking about these marines popping out of the water, but they have a tough journey to get there before that.

是的。

Yes.

而且每个人都会看到他们到来，因为正如你所说，首先他们必须穿过那条海峡。

And everybody everybody would see them coming because as you said, first, they'd have to go through that straight.

假设他们能安全通过海峡，带着所有保护措施和装备，再向北航行数百英里进入波斯湾北部，然后他们就得部署这次行动，而全世界显然都会密切关注。

And presuming if they make it through that safely with all the protection that they and their equipment would have, they could make it up several more 100 miles up into the northern part of The Gulf, then they would have to stage this operation, which presumably the whole world would be keeping an eye on.

这样做根本不可能有战略突袭效果。

There'd be no strategic surprise there in doing that.

是的

Yeah.

即使你成功完成了这项任务，军事指挥官多年来也一直将此作为与伊朗开战时的备选方案。

Even if you were to succeed with that mission and military commanders again have for years planned this as a possibility if they ever went to war with Iran.

一旦他们占领了这片领土，就会立即成为伊朗军队的目标，因为伊朗军队就在海岸不远处。

Once they seize this territory, they immediately become a target for the Iranian military, which is just a short ways off the coast of Iran.

对。

Right.

他们占领后必须守住它。

They have to defend it once they seize it.

他们必须守住它。

They would have to defend it.

没错。

Exactly.

因此，他们可能会再次面临伊朗剩余的无人机和导弹威胁。

So they could then again be threatened by whatever remains of Iran's arsenal of drones and missiles there.

所以，这又变成了一件非常危险的事情。

So there's, again, something that become quite a high threat to do.

现在你冒着夺取岛屿的风险，但如果在初期入侵或后续占领过程中，那里的石油基础设施遭到破坏，那么一旦经济价值被严重损毁，你夺取这座岛屿的初衷就完全失去了意义。

Now you take the risk of seizing the island, but it could backfire on you if somehow during the course of the initial invasion or subsequent occupation, the, the oil infrastructure there is damaged, and then you've kind of lost the whole point of taking this island if if the economic part of it is destroyed or damaged seriously.

关于夺取卡尔吉岛的这个选项，你说在最好的情况下，这实际上能让美国对伊朗施加巨大的经济压力。

And this option of seizing Carj Island, in the best case, you're saying, it would essentially allow The US to put a lot of economic pressure on Iran.

我的问题是，有没有任何保证，甚至只是预期，这种压力能真正有效阻止伊朗继续其当前的行为——即开展破坏海峡通航、攻击邻国的非对称战争？

My question is, is there any guarantee or even expectation that that kind of pressure would actually effectively stop Iran from continuing to do what it has been doing, which is wage asymmetric warfare that is disrupting traffic through the strait, attacking its neighbors, all of this stuff.

在这种背景下，这种压力被认为有效吗？

Is that pressure seen as effective in this context?

当然没有任何保证，娜塔莉，这种策略会有效。

Well, there's no guarantee at all, Natalie, that that this strategy would be effective.

而我们现在看到的是，随着许多高层领导人被杀，伊朗政权可能残留的部分甚至比以前更加激进，更不愿意与美国谈判，尤其是当他们感到自己正被 literally 和经济上逼到墙角时，他们宁愿成为烈士，也不愿屈服于美国的要求。

And what we're seeing now is with many of the top leaders killed, what might remain of an Iranian regime may be even more hardline than what existed before, be even less willing to negotiate with The United States, particularly if they felt they had this gun to their head literally and economically, they're willing to basically, you know, go down as martyrs rather than knuckle under to the American demands.

所以，这种做法根本没有任何保证能成功。

So there's no guarantee this would work at all.

好的。

Okay.

到目前为止，这些选项并没有让我对即将发生的事情感到乐观。

So far, these options have not left me with a particularly optimistic view of what's coming.

还有其他选择吗？

Is there anything else available?

有的。

Well, yes.

当然，特朗普总统从这次行动一开始就说要剥夺伊朗发展核武器的能力。

And, obviously, one of the things that president Trump has talked about from the very beginning of this operation is denying Iran's capability to develop a nuclear weapon.

这要追溯到去年六月，美国的轰炸行动袭击了三个不同的伊朗核设施，但伊朗仍然保留了大量高浓缩铀，其中大部分目前储存在伊斯法罕的一个地下掩体和隧道设施中。

This goes back to last June, the American bobbing missions that hit three different Iranian nuclear sites, but Iran was still able to preserve a large amount of highly enriched uranium, much of which is being stored right now in a facility called Isfahan in underground bunkers and tunnels.

所以

So

在任何冲突结束时，总统要想将这次行动视为整体成功，就必须解决这些高浓缩铀的去向问题。

at the end of any kind of conflict, the idea would be that somehow for the president to really consider this mission an overall success, you'd have to address whatever happens to that highly enriched uranium.

这种铀尚未达到制造炸弹的级别，但可以进一步加工，达到武器级的浓缩水平。

This is uranium that isn't ready to be made into a bomb, but it can be processed to the next level to that bomb grade capability.

那么，你打算怎么处理它？

So what do you do about that?

你可以继续轰炸，把这种材料埋在大量废墟之下，使伊朗人很难接触到它。

And you could continue bombing and entomb that material under so much rubble that it would be very difficult for the Iranians to get at it.

即使他们未来设法接触到，也默认美国会持续派遣空中侦察飞机或使用卫星进行监控。

And even if they did in the future, the presumption is The United States would continue to fly some kind of aerial surveillance aircraft or use satellites.

如果发现伊朗人试图挖出这些材料，美国就会再次发动打击。

And if they see the Iranians at any time trying to dig that material out, they'd go back and restrike it.

总统提到的另一个选择是派遣地面部队。

Another option the president has talked about is sending ground forces.

应该派遣经过特殊训练的特种部队，深入这种危险环境，进入隧道，设法取出呈气态的高浓缩铀容器，并确保这些容器在提取过程中不被破坏。

They should be commandos that are specially trained to go into very dangerous situations like this, go down into these tunnels and somehow extract these canisters of hyaline itched uranium that are in gaseous form and get them out, all without having these canisters being destroyed.

为了完成这一任务，需要一支核心团队深入隧道，配备核专家，将这些材料运出境外，或使其失效，以确保伊朗无法有效利用。

In order to do this, you have this core team that would go down into these tunnels with nuclear trained experts to extract it, to bring it out of the country altogether, or to neutralize it so the Iranians couldn't use it effectively.

但你必须确保为这支进入的团队设立一道安全警戒圈。

But you'd have to ensure a security ring around this team that goes in.

因此，你需要数百名士兵占领伊斯法罕周边地区，在行动进行期间提供保护，并确保他们能安全撤离。

So you'd have to have several 100 troops basically seize the territory around Isfahan to safeguard the operation while it's underway and then to ensure that they are able to get out safely.

我的同事们向我们指出，如果这些容器中的任何一个被刺穿，内部的湿气会释放出剧毒且高度放射性的气体。

My colleagues have pointed out to us that if one of these canisters were to be pierced, the moisture inside would release gas that's highly toxic and also highly radioactive.

所以你面临这个问题。

So you've got that problem.

你还要应对提取这些容器的难题。

You also have the problem of trying to extract these canisters.

这可能会意外引发这种核材料的链式反应。

It could inadvertently set off a chain reaction with this nuclear material.

显而易见，这个选项看起来极其危险、风险巨大，甚至有些疯狂。

To state the obvious, this option seems incredibly risky and dangerous and kind of insane.

确实如此。

It is.

而且，总统已经公开谈论过这一点。

And, this is something the president has openly talked about.

这是一个选项。

This is an option.

所以，再次强调，这不会让人感到意外。

So, again, this would not be a surprise.

因此，伊朗人很清楚，这是美国的最终目标。

So the Iranians, again, they know this is the ultimate target for The United States.

他们会拼死保卫和保存它，因为归根结底，这正是他们想要保留的东西——制造核武器的能力。

They're gonna fight to the death to protect it and preserve it because that, you know, in the end is really what they wanna hold on to, their ability to produce a nuclear weapon.

所以你所描述的，对总统而言是一个极其艰难的处境，尤其是当他审视自己曾提出的那些目标，以及实现这些目标实际需要付出的代价时。

So what you're describing is a very difficult situation for the president in particular as he is looking at what he said were the goalposts and what it would actually take to achieve those goals.

我只是在想，这一切中是否还存在一个最终的、没那么可怕的选项，即总统站出来宣布行动结束，承认我们已经取得了足够多的成果，就此收手。

I just wonder whether there isn't a final, less horrible option in all of this, which is the president coming out and saying that this is over and that we have actually accomplished enough, calling it quits at this point, cutting bait.

这是否是一个可能的选择？

Is that a potential?

当然如此，因为总统实际上已经提出过这个想法。

Well, it certainly is because the president's actually floated this idea.

他谈到过，从军事角度来看，这场战争实际上已经结束了，他们已经实现了那些非凡的目标——严重削弱或摧毁了伊朗大部分反击能力，以及其恐吓和威胁邻国乃至美国的能力；多年来被美国谴责的许多领导人，如今大多已经死亡。

He's talked about how, you know, the war is essentially over from a military standpoint, of how they've already achieved these extraordinary goals of degrading or destroying much of Iran's ability to fight back, much of its ability to terrorize and threaten its neighbors in The United States, the leaders that The United States has condemned for all these years, many of them are dead.

即使是一个虚弱的政权得以保留，尽管它可能十分顽固，也仍可被遏制。

And even if a weakened regime was in place, hard lying that it may be, it could be contained.

然而，我们目前正看到这种遏制的局限性，因为尽管伊朗被削弱了，它仍能在全球制造巨大的不稳定。

Although we are currently seeing the limits of that containment because while they are weakened, they are still able to create tremendous instability in the world.

但你继续说。

But but go on.

没错。

That's right.

我的意思是，如果总统决定宣布胜利并就此收手，这正是他可能提出的论点。

I mean, again, this is the rhetorical case that the president presumably would make if he decided to essentially declare victory and move on.

还有一点要指出，一方宣布胜利，并不意味着战争就结束了。

Also, should point out, I mean, for one side to declare victory in a war, it doesn't mean the war is over.

对吧？

Right?

伊朗并不需要同意。

Like, Iran doesn't have to agree.

伊朗可以继续以我们所见到的所有方式反击。

Iran could keep firing back in all the ways that we've seen.

没错。

That's right.

伊朗还可能采取其他我们尚未讨论的行动，比如在该地区、欧洲或美国激活恐怖细胞。

And Iran could could take other steps that we haven't discussed, like activating terror cells in the region, in Europe, or The United States.

当然，以色列可能也不愿意停止战斗。

And to be sure, Israel may not want to stop fighting either.

他们可能还有未实现的目标，比如彻底摧毁伊朗威胁以色列领土的能力。

They may have goals that are not fulfilled both in destroying Iran's capability to threaten Israeli territory.

总统和本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理几乎每天都会讨论这个问题。

The president and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu talk almost every day about this.