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大家好。
Hello, everyone.
欢迎来到另一期《Delego Refuel》，在这里我为大家梳理以太坊生态的最新动态。
Welcome to another episode of Delego Refuel, where I cap the latest news in the Ethereum ecosystem.
我是你们的主持人丹。
I'm your host, Dan.
今天是1月26日。
This is on the January 26.
好了，各位。
Alright, everyone.
我们开始吧。
Let's get into it.
所以，又是一个疯狂的一周，我想，世界范围内是这样。
So another crazy week, I guess, in the world.
但在加密货币领域倒没那么激烈。
Not so much in crypto.
加密货币在这里只是缓慢地前行。
Crypto is just kinda puttering along here.
显然，你们都知道，价格已经持续相当长一段时间处于横盘整理状态。
Obviously, as you guys know, the price has really just been going sideways for quite a while now.
我想我将在今天节目的最后更多地谈谈市场情况。
I'm gonna talk more I guess about the markets at the end of today's episode.
但就价格走势而言，过去大约三个月里它几乎毫无动静，而其他市场显然表现不错，尤其是黄金，对吧？
But yeah, in terms of like price action, it really has done nothing for the last kinda three or so months, while I guess like other markets have obviously done quite well, you know, gold in particular, right?
大家都在谈论它。
Everyone's talking about it.
大家都在谈论贵金属之类的东西。
Everyone's talking about precious metals and stuff like that.
但正如我所说，我将在今天节目的最后再详细聊聊这个话题。
But as I said, I'll talk more about that at the end of today's episode.
但另一个已经存在一段时间、近一年来越来越受到关注的重大话题是量子计算，以及量子计算对现有中心化系统（如金融系统和技术系统）乃至区块链构成的威胁。
But another big topic that I guess has been around for a little while now, but it's kind of coming more and more to the forefront of things, in particular over the last kind of year is quantum computing and the threat that quantum computing poses not only to the existing kind of centralized systems like financial systems and technology systems, but also, blockchains.
因为众所周知，区块链几乎是完全公开的，这意味着它们面临着巨大的漏洞悬赏，因为任何人都能看到它们所保障的价值。
Because as we all know, blockchains are completely public or at least most of them are completely public, which means they have huge kind of, I guess, bug bounties on them where you can see the value that they're securing.
如果你能以某种方式破解它——无论是通过智能合约攻击，还是未来某天通过量子计算——你就能从中获得巨额利润。
And then if you can somehow break that, whether it be through a smart contract hack or potentially one day with quantum computing, you stand to profit a lot by doing this.
因此，针对这个问题，社区内一直在讨论，并且出现了各种不同的应对思路。
So in response to this, you know, a lot of the community has been talking about this and there's been various different kind of, I guess, ways people are thinking about this.
特别是比特币社区并不认为这是一个巨大的风险。
The Bitcoin community in particular doesn't think that it's a huge risk.
他们虽然投入了一点资源，但还不够。
They are putting a little bit of resources towards it, but, you know, not enough.
我最近在Bankless上与大卫·霍夫曼做了一期《每周汇总》节目，讨论过这个问题，我认为这可能是比特币面临的首要风险，仅次于我之前提到的安全预算问题。
And I think I I discussed this on, Bankless recently with David Hoffman on an episode of the weekly roll up that I did with him, about kind of how I think that this is probably the number one risk to Bitcoin other than the security budget kind of thing that I've talked about before.
我认为比特币社区缺乏构建和修复这类问题的文化。
I just don't think that they have the culture to build and fix this stuff.
我认为他们没有能力做到这一点，最终，量子计算可能会成为比特币的阿喀琉斯之踵。
I don't think that they have the ability to do this, and I think that quantum may be the Achilles heel of Bitcoin in the end.
而以太坊则完全相反。
Whereas Ethereum is the exact opposite.
我认为以太坊具备构建新事物的文化。
I think Ethereum has the culture to, you know, build new things.
显然，我们每六到九个月就会发布重大升级，并且拥有修复问题的文化。
Obviously, we ship major upgrades every six to nine months, and we have the culture of fixing things.
这让我想到Justin Drake发的一条推文，就在我面前，他宣布在以太坊基金会内部组建了一个名为‘抗量子团队’的小组，旨在应对量子计算对区块链——特别是以太坊——构成的威胁。
And that brings me to a tweet from Justin Drake, I've got in front of me here, where he basically announced something called the post quantum team that is being, kind of formulated or has been formulated within the Ethereum foundation to tackle the quantum computing threats, towards blockchains generally, but specifically, I guess, Ethereum in this context here.
不过，从应对量子威胁的角度来看，这并不是什么新事。
Now this isn't something new in terms of I guess, addressing the quantum threat.
团队是新的，但量子威胁这个议题在以太坊社区早已被长期讨论，尤其是Vitalik，他对此一直高度关注。
The team is new, but addressing the quantum threat is something that has been discussed within Ethereum for a very long time now, especially by Vitalik who's been on top of this for quite a while now.
但就真正认真投入资源、开展实质性工作而言，自2019年以来就已列入长期路线图并持续进行。
But in terms of, I guess, like having a more serious, I guess activity around this and serious kind of work put into this, it has been done since 2019 and has been on the long term roadmap since then.
这个新成立的抗量子团队，现在正直接着手解决这一问题：我将深入研究，构建真正需要的防护机制，以应对真实存在的量子威胁。
So what this new post quantum team is doing is basically, I I I guess like directly addressing this issue now where I'm gonna do deep research into this, build the, you know, correct, kind of stuff that needs to get built here to defend Ethereum against these quantum threats because they are real.
你可能会听到有人说，哦，这大概还有一二十年，抱歉。
And you may hear people saying, well, it's only like ten to fifteen sorry.
它仍然可能需要十到二十年，甚至更久。
It's still like ten, fifteen, twenty years away.
我们不用急着担心这个问题。
We don't have to worry about it for quite a while.
即使真的还要三十年，比如，也最好尽早开始，主动应对，而不是被动反应。
And like, if that's true, even if it's still, you know, even if it's still thirty years away, let's say, like it's better to start early and be proactive about this stuff rather than be reactive.
因为根据我所阅读的资料以及与相关人士的交流，我相信这个问题离我们远没有三十年那么远。
Because I believe from everything that I've kind of read into this topic and people that I've I've spoken to, I believe that it is way closer than thirty years.
我认为，在未来五年内，我们就可能看到能够破解区块链中部分加密技术的功能性量子计算机。
I believe that we could see functional content computers that could break some, you know, some of the cryptography used within within blockchains within the next five years.
根据我所了解的情况，尤其是考虑到目前在人工智能和计算硬件领域投入的巨大资源，这些技术正不断进步，我不认为这需要三十年。
I don't think it's thirty years away from from what I've seen, especially given that there is just so much investment going into obviously AI and into computing hardware and that's getting better and better all the time.
人工智能将会，你知道，人工智能显然是个巨大的事情，对吧？
AI is going to, you know, AI is obviously like it's a huge thing, right?
这是一个巨大的领域，有些人称之为潮流，有些人称之为泡沫，不管怎样。
It's a huge The people, some people call it a fad, some people call it a bubble, whatever.
这真的非常庞大。
Like it's it's huge.
人工智能领域有很多垃圾，但也有大量优秀的东西。
There's a lot of garbage with AI, but there's also a lot of good stuff with AI.
它将加速许多行业。
It's gonna accelerate a lot of industries.
医疗行业将得到极大推动，我们将以快得多的速度发现以前从未有过的治疗方法。
The medical industry is gonna be accelerated by, we're gonna be discovering cures to things that we haven't had before much at a much faster rate.
它正在做许多了不起的事情。
It's doing a lot of great stuff.
我认为，它还会加速量子计算的发展进程。
And I think that one thing that it's also gonna do is accelerate timelines with with quantum computing.
因此，我很高兴看到以太坊基金会组建了这支新团队。
So I'm very glad to see this new team formed here, by the Ethereum Foundation.
我认为，正如我所说，这是非常积极主动的。
I think that it is, as I said, very proactive.
我认为，这可以成为以太坊向外界传递的一个关键差异化叙事，表明以太坊生态系统自2019年以来就一直在思考这个问题。
I think that it is something that Ethereum can use as a narrative going out to the world as like a key differentiator saying that, well, the Ethereum ecosystem has been thinking about this since 2019.
现在有一个专门的团队负责此事，而以太坊作为一个生态系统，将能够实现这些举措，因为我们一直有实施重大升级的实证，比如合并。
There is a whole team dedicated to this now and Ethereum as an ecosystem will be able to implement these things because we have always evidence of implementing major changes to Ethereum, to to kinda lean on here, especially something like the merge.
在合并这件事上，我认为这是加密领域乃至全球范围内最重要的事件之一。
With the merge, we we, that was like the, in my opinion, biggest kind of thing in crypto, let alone, you know, one of the biggest things to happen in in the world.
我知道它没有像其他一些全球性事件那样获得大量关注，但就其影响、实施难度，尤其是协调的复杂性而言，它的地位非常高。
And I know that it didn't receive nearly as much fanfare as some other things within the world, but in terms of its impact, in terms of, how difficult it was, in terms of the kind of coordination difficulties in particular, it stands up there kind of like really, really, high here.
所以，当你看到这一点，再结合以太坊所完成的其他所有升级，任何理性的人都不会怀疑以太坊能够成功实现这一目标。
So I think when you look at that and you look at all the other upgrades Ethereum has done, no one reasonable could doubt that Ethereum can pull this off.
我真心相信以太坊能够成功实现这一点。
And I I truly think Ethereum can pull this off.
而且我认为，我们有可能成为少数几个实现抗量子攻击的区块链之一。
And I do think that we can become one of the only chains to be quantum resistant here.
正如我所说，这是我们与其他链、尤其是比特币之间一个非常重要的差异化优势，这一点至关重要，因为如果你真的去观察并与传统金融界的人士交流，他们会在其产品上添加免责声明。
And it is, as I said, a very big key differentiator for us against, other chains, especially Bitcoin, which is huge because if you actually look at and talk to folks in the TradFi world, they are putting disclaimers on their products.
比如我认为贝莱德甚至在其比特币ETF上标注了免责声明，指出持有比特币的风险之一就是量子计算机。
Like I think BlackRock even has a disclaimer on their BTC ETF saying that, one of the risks of holding Bitcoin is quantum computers.
我看到一些传统金融报告越来越多地提到这一点，称他们目前甚至不想将资金配置给比特币或加密货币整体，原因就是这种量子威胁。
And I've seen a few TradFi reports, start mentioning it more and more where they say, we don't even wanna allocate to Bitcoin right now or crypto generally because of this quantum threat.
因此，以太坊或许能够摆脱这种困境。
So Ethereum can kind of, I guess, break away from that.
整个生态系统能够摆脱这种困境，并且独立站稳脚跟。
The ecosystem break away from that and kind of stand on its own.
我认为这对以太坊整体而言将是好事。
I think that's just gonna be good overall for Ethereum.
是的，可能会有一段很长的时间，事情在某种程度上并不理想。
Yes, there's probably gonna be like a long period, where where things kind of, I guess, aren't great.
我说的不只是价格，而是传统金融界可能会变得更加谨慎，不愿参与，因为他们觉得：这是一个尚未解决的风险。
And I'm not talking about just prices where like, I guess TradFi becomes a little bit more hesitant to get involved because they're like, you know, this is a risk and it hasn't been addressed yet.
是的。
Yeah.
你说你迟早会解决这个问题，但这仍然是一个风险。
You say you're gonna address it at some point, but still it's a risk.
所以他们显然非常规避风险，但这件事显然值得去做，而且它确实是以太坊更大路线图的一部分，我们将在未来几年逐步实现。
So they're very, you know, risk averse obviously, but still it's it's obviously worth doing and it's obviously part of the the bigger Ethereum roadmap here, like the that we're that we're kind of delivering over the next, I guess, like few years.
你们都了解这个路线图，比如Lean Ethereum、ZKVM，这些我之前提到过的东西。
You guys know all about that that roadmap, like Lean Ethereum, ZKVM, stuff like that that I've talked about before.
但除此之外，我认为关于加密货币更广泛的话题——我一直相信这一点，而且我认为在未来几年内它将真正成为现实。
But but also on top of all of that, I think that as a broader topic here around crypto generally is and I've always believed this, and I think that it's actually going to become true over the next couple of years.
长期以来，我们一直需要清除加密领域里的大量垃圾。
I think that for a long time, we've needed to expel a lot of the just crap from crypto.
我们就是需要把它们全部清理掉。
Like, we just needed to get rid of it all.
你可能以为我只在说那些明显的骗局、明显的割韭菜行为，还有像模因币这样的东西，但我指的是大量伪装成合法项目的项目，它们实际上只是浪费金钱和时间，除了内部人士，比如风投和团队成员，根本没为任何人创造价值。
And like, you might think that I'm only talking about the obvious scams and the obvious griffs and stuff like meme coins, but I'm talking about like a lot of these projects that pretend to be legitimate that are actually just a waste of money and time that have actually generated value for no one except insiders such as, VCs and the team members themselves.
我认为，这个行业99%甚至更多的项目都属于这一类。
And I would argue that 99% or more of the industry falls into that bucket.
我认为，我们现在正经历一个清理期，这些代币的价格持续下跌，对吧？
And I think that where we are going through that expelling period where these coins just keep dropping, right?
这些价格一直在不断下跌、下跌、再下跌。
Like these the the prices just keep dropping and dropping and dropping.
这里没有任何缓解的迹象。
There is no relief here.
没有人愿意购买这些资产。
No one wants to buy these things.
它们没有任何需求。
There's no demand for them.
是的。
Yes.
Ethan BTC的表现也不算出色，虽然在加密货币内部相比其他资产表现不错，但与股市、贵金属等传统资产相比就逊色多了。
Ethan BTC are also not doing, you know, amazingly, they're doing, they're doing amazing against other the other assets in crypto, but against like the stock market against like precious metal stuff like that.
它们显然很挣扎，只是横向盘整，没什么特别的进展。
They're obviously struggling and they're just kind of going sideways and not really doing anything too exciting.
但在整个加密货币领域中，它们的表现非常好。
But against the rest of crypto, they're doing very, very well here.
我认为在未来几年里，正如我刚才提到的，以太坊有很大的机会从其他加密货币中脱颖而出，因为加密货币在外界眼中的声誉非常差。
And I think that over the next couple of years, as I as I mentioned just before, that Ethereum has a really good shot of just separating itself from the rest of crypto because crypto also has like a really bad reputation outside, like to the outside world.
而这主要是由诈骗行为所导致的。
And that's driven, you know, entirely pretty much, because of the scams.
对吧？
Right?
因为每次你打开主流媒体网站或主流财经媒体时，头条几乎总是关于诈骗，或者如果价格大幅上涨，他们当然也会报道。
Because every time you go to a a mainstream media website or a mainstream financial app publication and you look at the headlines, it's always almost always about the scams or or if the price has gone up a lot, they'll cover they'll cover that of course.
但事实上，大多数人了解加密货币，是因为很多人仍然把加密货币和FTX、SPF、Terra这些大型诈骗事件联系在一起。
But really, most people know crypto because, a lot of people kind of, I I guess, like know of crypto or associate crypto still with FTX, right, and SPF and Terra and all these really big scams that happened.
但同时，他们也可能听说过一些由YouTuber或其他人推广的随机链，于是觉得所有东西都是一样的。
But then also they may have heard of like these chains or these random chains that get shielded them by YouTubers or whatever, and they just think it's all the same.
我在我现实生活中接触过很多人，他们对以太坊的了解仅限于它的代币。
Like I've spoken to to many people in my real life who have absolutely no idea what Ethereum is beyond the coin.
他们只是觉得ETH和BTC差不多。
They just think that ETH is like BTC.
他们完全不知道你可以在以太坊上构建东西。
They have absolutely no idea that you can build things on Ethereum.
他们不知道以太坊和比特币有多么不同。
They have no idea that just how different Ethereum is from Bitcoin.
他们也不知道作为资产的ETH和BTC有多大的区别。
They have no idea how different ETH as an asset is from BTC.
所以，我认为这一切都需要一些时间才能改变。
So, all of that, I think it's gonna take a while for that.
这不会是未来几年就能实现的，但要让这种认知发生转变，确实需要一段时间。
Like, it's not gonna be the next couple of years, but it's gonna take a while for that to kind of, I guess, change.
但我确实认为，在加密货币内部——也就是仅限于加密生态系统本身，不包括外部世界——以太坊在未来几年内有很大机会完全掌握叙事主导权，把自己孤立于整个生态系统之外，从而建立起属于自己的独特地位。
But I do think within crypto, so just talking about like within the crypto ecosystem itself, not including the outside world, Ethereum does stand a really good chance over the next couple of years to take control of the narrative completely and and position itself, kind of standing alone within the entire ecosystem and essentially create like its own.
我们可以有加密生态系统，也可以有以太坊生态系统。
Like, we can have the crypto ecosystem and then we can have the Ethereum ecosystem.
我知道这听起来很极端，但到目前为止，我根本不在乎，因为已经出现了太多骗局、割韭菜和毫无进展的糟糕项目。
I know that sounds very eth max y, but at this point, I don't even care because like there's just been enough scams and grips and just really shitty projects that have gone nowhere.
正如我所说，我接触的内部人士太多了，我对这些事已经厌倦了。
And as I said, just enriched insiders that I'm just sick of these things.
我真的对这些事感到无比厌倦。
Like I'm absolutely sick of these things.
我认为，这些项目对整个行业造成了巨大的净负面影响，以多种方式严重损害了行业，也拖累了以太坊。
And I I do think that they've been in massive net negative for the industry and they've severely damaged the industry in many, many different ways, and they've heard Ethereum as well.
我认为，任何听我节目的人都会同意我的观点：以太坊是独特的。
And I think, you know, obviously anyone listening to my show will agree with me that Ethereum is special.
以太坊在所有区块链中都是独一无二的。
Ethereum is special among all chains.
世界上没有任何东西能与以太坊相提并论。
There is nothing like Ethereum out there.
所以，我真的很希望我们能与整个加密世界区分开来，独树一帜，然后进一步在加密世界之外也树立起独立的形象。
So I really want, us to kind of break away from the rest of crypto and stand alone here, and then we can also work on standing alone outside of crypto.
对吧？
Right?
而且我想向外界传达一个观念：以太坊和加密世界里的其他东西根本不一样。
And and and kind of, I guess, like, get it across to the outside world that Ethereum is not like the other kind of stuff in crypto.
以太坊是一项严肃的技术。
Ethereum is a serious technology.
它是一个严肃的平台。
It is a serious platform.
它是一个致力于做严肃事业、并希望改变世界的严肃生态系统。
It is a serious ecosystem that wants to do serious things, and it wants to change the world.
我们的领导者也是如此，你知道，我们的领袖从不炒作模因币和骗局，不像其他链的领袖那样。
And our leadership is like that where, you know, our leaders don't show meme coins and scams like the leaders of other chains.
我们的领袖并不像其他链那样，热衷于成为邪教领袖，比如维塔利克就一直在主动避开聚光灯。
Our leaders aren't, in it to like become cult leaders like other chains are like this, you know, Vitalik actively tries to get out of the spotlight.
对吧？
Right?
这也一直是我的判断标准。
And that's always been my barometer for things as well.
任何试图吸引目光的人，我通常都持悲观态度。
It's like anyone who tries to be in the spotlight, I'm I'm usually pretty bearish on.
比如，我这里贴了贾斯汀·德雷克关于量子计算的推文。
So like for example, I've got, you know, Justin Drake's tweet up here about the quantum computing thing.
他几乎不发推。
He barely tweets.
而当他发推时，一定是重大的事情，对吧？
And when he tweets, it's something major, right?
他并不在乎是否身处聚光灯下。
Like he doesn't care to be in the spotlight.
他会参加播客之类的活动，但通常只是因为有要分享的关于他正在研究的内容。
He'll go on podcasts and stuff like that, but it's usually just because he's got something to say about what he's working on.
并不是因为他只想站在镜头前，让人听他说话，围绕他形成一个崇拜团体。
It's not because he just wants to be in front of a camera and people to listen to him and to form a cult around him.
维塔利克也是同样的情况，对吧？
Same goes for Vitalik, right?
他很少发帖。
He rarely posts.
他最近发帖稍微多了一点，但那是因为他有很多话要说，不过他总体上非常非常低调，其他人也是如此。
He's posting a little bit more recently, but that's because he's got a lot of stuff to say, but like he's very, very quiet and then all the other ones as well.
比如很多，你知道的，怎么样？
Like a lot You you know what?
大多数在以太坊研究与开发领域处于较高层级的人，根本对聚光灯毫无兴趣。
Most of the, I guess, people are within the kind of like a higher, I guess, ranks of of Ethereum research and development, they are not interested in the spotlight at all.
他们几乎不发推文。
And they they they kind of like barely tweet.
他们也很少参加播客之类的活动。
They barely go on podcast stuff like that.
然后你还有另一端的人，比如查尔斯·霍斯金森这样的人。
Then you have the other end of the spectrum, which is the likes of people like Charles Hoskinson.
对吧？
Right?
他可以说是极端的代表，还有很多类似的人，但他是最明显的例子，因为他的一切都是为了吸引关注。
Like he's, I guess, the extreme side and there's a lot of people like him, but he's the most obvious example here where he his whole thing is attention.
他非常喜欢关注。
Like he loves the attention.
他自尊心极强。
He's got a massive ego.
这正是他想要的一切。
That's all he wants.
他只在乎这个。
That's all he cares about.
所以我很高兴以太坊没有这样的人。
So I'm glad we don't have those kinds of people in Ethereum.
是的，有时候我们在以太坊的某些项目中确实遇到过这样的人，但在以太坊核心开发层面，绝对不是这样的。
Like, yes, sometimes we had them within projects within Ethereum, but in terms of Ethereum core development, it's definitely not like that.
对吧？
Right?
他们完全在聚光灯之外，我认为这绝对是好事。
Definitely out of the spotlight, which I think is a net positive there.
不过，回到我们现在讨论的量子话题，你可以读一下贾斯汀·德雷克的这条推文，但本质上，这里有很多事情正在发生。
But, yeah, going back to, I guess, like the topic on hand here with with Quantum, you can give this tweet a read from, from Justin Drake, but essentially, there's a lot going on here.
这不仅仅是团队的组建。
It's not just the formation of the team.
还有资金正在投入这项工作。
There's money being put towards this.
接下来还会举办一些研讨会。
There's going to be, you know, workshops spun up.
很快就会公布一份路线图。
There's gonna be a roadmap coming soon.
还会开展相关的教育工作。
There's gonna be education being done.
这里正在开展一整套工作，不仅由以太坊基金会，还包括其外部的团队。
There's just like a whole suite of things being done here by not just the Ethereum Foundation, but also teams outside of it.
你可以看到，目前已经有一些后量子时代的开发网络正在启动，不同团队正在构建新的共识层客户端，这些将成为以太坊精简路线图的一部分，比如Zeam、Ream Labs、Appear Two。
And you can see here that there's already some post quantum dev nets being, spun up with different teams building, new consensus layer clients, which are gonna be part of the lean Ethereum roadmap such as, Zeam, here or Ream, Labs, Appear two.
你有Gyan或者Gene。
You've got Gyan or Gene.
我不太确定这个该怎么发音。
I don't know how to pronounce that one there.
这里是ETH Lambda团队。
The ETH Lambda team here.
所以这里有很多团队正在从事这项工作。
So you have you have a lot of teams working on this here.
所以这 definitely，正如我所说，并不是什么新事物。
So this is definitely, as I said, not something new.
这个团队在形式上是新的，也就是说，这项工作的正式化是新的，但它其实已经进行了相当长一段时间，并且是更广泛的精益以太坊路线图的一部分。
The team is new in the form you know, the formalization of this effort is new, but it's been worked on for quite a while and it is part of the wider lean Ethereum roadmap here.
如果你想了解更多信息，可以去看看贾斯汀·德雷克的推文。
So, you can go check out Justin Drake's tweets, if you would like there.
这里还有来自宾吉的一条推文，他也在以太坊基金会工作。
There was also this tweet from Bingy here who also works at the Ethereum Foundation.
过去一年里，你可能已经看过他很多条推文了。
You've probably seen a lot of his tweets over the past year.
他一直在推特上非常活跃，但这条推文特别为我们这些普通人解释了，为什么以太坊基金会的量子安全策略是以太坊历史上最重要的公告之一。
He's been very active on Twitter, but he has a tweet here basically breaking it down for us mortals about why, the quantum strategy from the Ethereum foundation is one of the most important announcements in Ethereum's, history.
他把这一点解释得相当清楚，我就不在这里逐字读这条推文了。
And he he, you know, he breaks it down pretty well and I'm not gonna read through the tweet here.
你可以自己去读一读，这条推文基本上把风险放在了核心位置，解释了为什么这是一个风险，以及为什么这个问题迫在眉睫，为什么我们必须尽快应对。
You can go give this a read for yourself, but it essentially kind of puts the risk one and center and explains to you, you know, why this is a risk, and essentially why it's coming, you know, soon and why we need to address this.
正如我刚才所解释的，这确实是对区块链的一种生存性威胁。
And, you know, as I explained, you know, just before, it is definitely an existential risk to blockchains.
这是我们必须要解决的问题，我真的认为以太坊在这里是独一无二的。
It is something that we need to figure out, and I really do think Ethereum stands alone here.
是的。
Yeah.
其他一些链可能只是模仿以太坊的做法并将其也实现，但它们大多无关紧要。
Some of the other chains will probably just, like, copy what Ethereum's doing and implement it there as well, but they're mostly irrelevant.
我认为最重要的链是比特币和以太坊。
I would say that the most relevant chains are Bitcoin and Ethereum.
如果比特币无法整顿好自己的问题，那这就很糟糕了，你知道，这相当看跌。
And if Bitcoin can't get their shit together, like that's that's pretty that's that's that you know, it's pretty bearish.
对吧？
Right?
如果你想象一下这里可能存在的两种时间线。
Like, if you if you kind of imagine two possible timelines here.
一种时间线是，他们解决了问题，不管用什么方式修复了它，然后我们继续各自的生活，一切都没问题。
So one timeline is that they figure their shit out, they fix it, however they can, like, and and then, you know, we all go on our merry way and it's it's all, you know, it's all kind of fine there.
但另一个时间线是，他们没有修复它。
But then the other timeline is that they they don't fix it.
对吧？
Right?
这里的‘他们’指的是比特币社区，还有比特币生态系统，对吧？
And by they, I mean like the the Bitcoin community, right, and and the Bitcoin ecosystem.
对吧？
Right?
他们没有修复它。
They don't fix it.
然后就开始出现被黑的情况。
And then things start getting hacked.
开始出现被利用的情况，旧的钱包，因为它们是最早被破解的，比如一些最早的钱包，中本聪的钱包。
Things start getting exploited, old wallets because they were the first ones to be to be cracked like the the the, you know, some of the first wallets, Satoshi's wallets.
它们开始被清空。
They start getting drained.
你知道的，BTC开始流动了。
The, you know, the the BTC starts moving.
这对整个加密货币来说就像核辐射扩散，因为至少在短期到中期，影响不会只局限于比特币。
That is like nuclear fallout for crypto generally because it wouldn't just be contained to Bitcoin at least in the short to medium term.
这将是对整个加密货币领域的一次核级别灾难事件。
It would be like a nuclear level kind of fallout event for all of crypto.
如果你把这两种可能性看作两种未来走向，然后评估每种情况发生的概率，人们可能会说，好吧，也许各占百分之五十。
Now if you think about those as the two timelines and then you put the odds of each happening, people would say, now, okay, maybe it's like fifty fifty.
我说，不。
I'm like, no.
不。
No.
我不认为这是五五开。
I don't think it's fifty fifty.
根据我所看到的，以及我在比特币社区中接触到的所有讨论，很多人甚至根本没意识到这是一个问题，或者至少不是一个近期的问题。
Like, from what I've seen, from all the discourse that I've seen in the Bitcoin community, a lot of them still don't even, you know, acknowledge that this is an issue or at least a near term issue.
他们觉得，哦，我们还有三十年呢。
They think, oh, we've got thirty years.
没问题。
It's fine.
好吧。
Okay.
你可以这么想，或者根本就缺乏一种文化上的意愿和动力去建设某种东西来解决这个问题。
You can you can think that, or there is just no kind of cultural appetite to and cultural drive to build something in order to fix it.
所以如果你要给这些可能性赋值概率，我可以自己粗略地估算一下，我觉得是八成对两成。
So if you were to put probabilities of it, and I I can kinda put some rough probabilities of it of my own, I would say eighty twenty.
也就是说，有80%的概率他们不会解决，20%的概率他们会解决。
So 80% chance that they don't fix it and 20% chance that they do.
我知道这听起来可能有点疯狂，但很多人，比如举个最近的例子，很多人觉得说Terra是庞氏骗局是疯狂的，结果它三天内就崩盘了。
And I know that, you know, may seem a bit crazy, but a lot of people, you know, for example, if you wanna use a recent example of something that a lot of people thought was crazy, a lot of people thought it was crazy to call Terra a Ponzi, and then it collapsed in three days.
对吧？
Right?
如果你真的指出这是庞氏骗局，并说它在持续上涨的过程中即将崩盘，别忘了，它确实还在继续上涨。
If you were if you literally were calling it out as a Ponzi and saying that it was gonna collapse as it kept going up, mind you, right, didn't stop going up.
UST的价格保持上涨，抱歉，是Luna的价格在持续上涨。
The UST price kept going sorry, the, the Luna price kept going up.
稳定币UST的供应量也在持续增加。
The the the supply of of the stable coin UST kept going up.
就在它爆炸或崩溃前一周，如果你说它会归零——而它确实归零了——你也会被当成疯子，对吧？
If, you know, even a week before it exploded or imploded, if you had said that it was going to go to zero because that's what it did, you would have been called crazy, right?
所以综合来看，是的，我会说80比20。
So on the balance of probabilities, yeah, I would say $80.20.
这就是我对概率的判断。
That's my kind of probabilities there.
这个比例可能会随着未来几年发生的事情上下波动，但我目前看不到比特币社区有任何积极的迹象。
Maybe that can go up or down depending on what happens over the next couple of years, but I'm just not seeing anything good from the Bitcoin community.
而且说实话，我很久以来就没见过他们有什么积极的表现，因为他们对所有事情都视而不见。
And I I I mean, I haven't seen anything good from them for ages because they're just they're just like, got their heads in the sand about everything.
但即使他们解决了这个问题，他们仍然面临安全预算的问题，而这个问题对他们来说根本没有好的解决方案。
But then even if they solve that issue, they've still got the security budget issue, which there is just no good solution for for them.
所以，我不确定。
So, yeah, I don't know.
我们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
我显然仍然对以太坊比对比特币更看涨。
I obviously am still kind of way more bullish on Ethereum than I am on Bitcoin.
我会说，我对比特币持整体看跌态度，而这只是让我更加看跌比特币。
I would say I'm net bearish on Bitcoin, and this just makes me more bearish on Bitcoin.
但你们可以自己对此做出判断。
But you guys can make up your own mind on that, there.
好的。
Alright.
继续下一步。
Moving on.
所以，Nixo发布的第8期检查点通讯现已上线。
So checkpoints newsletter number eight from Nixo is now live.
这里提醒一下，这些通讯涵盖了以太坊核心开发领域内的所有最新动态和进展。
Now just a reminder here, these newsletters go over all the latest, workings or happenings within the Ethereum core developments, world here.
在这期中，Nixo回顾了Fusaka和BPO分叉，展望了Glamsterdam，并提供了一个时间线，以及将要纳入Glamsterdam的EIP列表。
So in this one, Nixo is recapping Fusaka, the BPO forks, looking ahead to Glamsterdam, and then looking at a a timeline here, along with the, EIPs that are going to be going into to Glamsterdam.
然后，展望了Glamsterdam之后即将到来的Hagata升级，并概述了目前已知的主要特性，比如Fossil链接到的各种内容。
And then, looking ahead, to Hagata, which is the upgrade that's coming after Glamsterdam, And then, kind of going over that, like going over the headliner the the headliner that we have so far, which is Fossil linking to a bunch of different things.
在底部，还为你提供了一份详尽的时间线。
And then down the bottom, got a comprehensive timeline for you guys here.
但我想要重点讨论的是她这里列出的时间线。
But what I wanted to focus on was essentially her kind of timeline here.
我已经谈过Fusaka和BPO分叉了，所以没必要再重复一遍。
Like, I've already talked about Fusaka and the BPO folks, so there's no need to to kind of cover that again.
但关于Glamsterdam和Hagata的时间安排，我之前说过，我认为Glamsterdam预计会在今年年中发布。
But, you know, the timeline around Glamsterdam and Hagotar, I've said before that Glamsterdam, I thought was gonna be, like, mid this year in terms of, when it's going to get released.
我想这大概符合她的时间线。
And that kind of, I guess, think I think this fits into her timeline here.
你可以说她在这份时间路线图的底部并没有明确给出时间，但你可以看到这里还有另一张路线图，列出了完成各项任务所需的天数。
You can you can kinda say she's not really giving timelines on the bottom here in in the the timeline roadmap, but you can see here there's another roadmap with just like the days it takes to do things.
所以Glamsterdam大致就在这里。
So, Glamsterdam is somewhere around here.
目前，非头条提案正在被筛选，针对特定EIP的开发网络正在启动，紧接着我们将迎来一段很长的功能冻结期，很快就要开始了。
So so essentially like the the, non headline aligners are being selected, EIP specific dev nets are being spun up, and then we have a kind of long period of a feature freeze coming up like very, very soon.
然后是为期三十天的通用开发网，两周的安全审查，两周的权限测试网，三十天的无权限测试网，最后再留出三天缓冲期，用于主网分叉。
Then we have generalized dev nets for thirty days, security review for two weeks, permission test nets for two weeks, permissionless test nets for thirty days, and then a third day buffer into a main net fork.
如果我们据此推算一下，抱歉，Nick Soro，我又要根据这个推算时间线了，但我还是打算用它。
So if we just extrapolate from this, and sorry, Nick Soro for extrapolating from from this for for a timeline, but I'm going to use it anyway.
假设我们在本月底前完成功能冻结。
So if we say that, well, we do the feature freeze by the end of this month, let's say.
好吧？
Alright?
然后在功能冻结的这三个月里，我们要完成所有工作，开发所有EIP，并为通用开发网发布客户端。
And then we have three months or through this feature freeze of of, you know, building everything, building all the EIPs, and then having client releases for the generalized dev nets.
所以这是二月、三月和四月。
So with that, that's February, March, April.
对吧？
Right?
五月进行三十天的通用开发网测试，六月进行两周安全审查和总共三十天的权限测试网，七月进行三十天的无权限测试网，然后八月是三十天的缓冲期，或者说是八月。
Generalized dev nets for thirty days in May, Security review two weeks, permission test nets for thirty days altogether in June, and then permissionless test nets in July for thirty days, and then thirty day buffer or, you know, August or August here.
所以我认为，有了功能冻结，实际可能不到三个月，也许只有两个月左右。
So I think that with the feature freeze, it could be probably less than three months, maybe maybe you have like two months there.
如果只有两个月，那时间线就正好能对上，Glamsterdam大概在八月上线。
So if it's two months then that does fit into like the kind of I guess like August timeline for Glamsterdam to go live.
我之前说过，如果真这样，我完全不觉得Hagotar能在今年年底上线，因为即使八月完成，我们还得再重复一遍整个流程来上线Hagotar，除非它能在十二月上线，否则今年肯定没法发布。
Now I've said before that like if that happens I just don't see a world where Hagotar's gonna ship by the end of this year because, you know, August, like like even the August, then we've got to do this kind of all again for Hagotar unless it ships in December somehow, it just won't be shipping this year.
这没关系。
That's okay.
这没什么大不了的。
It's not a big deal.
对吧？
Right?
但我之前说过，这个时间表对我来说根本对不上。
But I think I've said that before where I just the timeline is just not kind of timelining for me.
但我非常乐意被证明是错的。
But I'm I'm be very happy to be proven wrong here.
我不希望我是对的，我只是像往常一样在设定时间预期。
Like I don't wanna be right about this, but I'm just setting expectations like I normally do around timelines.
所以如果我要给出一个具体的月份，我会说Glamsterdam大概在八月。
So if I was to give a specific kind of month here, would say sometime in August for Glamsterdam.
这是我目前的大致估计。
That's my rough estimate right now.
别太当真。
Don't hold me to it.
这可能会改变。
It could change.
这仅仅是基于我看到的、对所有人都公开的信息。
That's just based on on information that I'm seeing that's public to everyone else.
然后是明年的一季度Heckeltar。
And then Heckeltar q '1 next year.
我不会指望它今年发布，除非像足球那样在十二月，但我也不确定。
I would not bank on it coming out, this year unless it's like it like for soccer December, but I don't know.
我们看看情况会如何发展。
We'll we'll see how that, how that kind of, shakes out there.
但对，你可以自己去读一读。
But, yeah, you can go read this for yourself.
篇幅很短。
It's a short read.
我会在下面的YouTube描述里附上链接。
I'll link in the YouTube description below.
但我认为，就即将纳入Glamsterdam的EIP而言，目前这些基本上都已经确定了。
But I think, in terms of the EIPs that are going into Glamsterdam, these are pretty much the ones that have been decided on at this point.
我觉得应该不会再新增其他EIP了。
I think that I don't I don't think any new ones are gonna be added.
也许其中一些会被取消，或者有一个或多个会被移除。
Maybe some of these get taken away or one or more of them get taken away.
我还不确定。
I don't know yet.
我想我们当然会在下一次所有核心开发者电话会议中弄清楚这一点。
I think we'll find that out at the next all core devs call of course.
但没错，感觉我们几乎已经进入功能冻结阶段了。
But yeah, feels like we're at the feature free stage almost.
但我也应该在这里注明，尼克特别加了一个星号，说明在功能冻结阶段其实也可以移除某些功能。
But also I should actually note here that Nick's sort of has an asterisk saying that features can actually be removed during the feature freeze stage as well.
如果发现它们准备不足或出现复杂性问题，但不应再提议新增功能。
If they're determined to be insufficiently ready or complexity issues arise, but new features should not be proposed to be added.
我们以前也见过这种情况，比如EOF就是在这一时期被移除了。
So we've seen this before, you know, EOF got removed like pretty, you know, during the during this kind of period here.
所以在功能冻结期间，内容是可以被移除的，但不要指望会添加新功能，除非是像关键安全问题之类必须添加的内容。
So things can be removed during the feature freeze period, but don't expect things to be added unless it's like something that we need to add for a critical security issue or something like that.
对吧？
Right?
但就普通功能而言，不行。
But in terms of just normal features, no.
在这一阶段，它们很可能不会被添加。
They probably wouldn't be added, during during this phase here.
所以我认为可以很确定地说，这些就是我们将要在Glamsterdam中包含的EIP。
So I think it's pretty safe to say that these these are the EIPs that we're going to be having in Glamsterdam.
正如你们所知，Glamsterdam的亮点是EPBS和区块级访问列表。
And as you guys know, the headliners for Glamsterdam are EPBS and block level access lists.
两个非常令人兴奋的EIP。
Two very exciting EIPs.
你还可以前往 Forkcast 网站了解更多详情，网址是 forkcast.org，我当然会在下面的 YouTube 描述中附上链接，供你查看。
Again, you can go read all about these on the Forkcast website, which is at forkcast.org, which I will, of course, link in the YouTube description below for you to check out.
不过，关于核心开发这边，就这些了。
But, yeah, that's all there is on the, the core dev side there.
好了。
Alright.
我想特别提一下以太坊基金会生态系统负责人 James 发的这条推文。
Just wanted to highlight this tweet from James who is the head of ecosystem at the Ethereum Foundation.
他说，在 2025 年，或者更准确地说，
He said that during 2025 or sorry.
自‘Ethereum Everywhere’团队启动以来，每三十天左右就有一个以太坊社区中心落成，这非常酷，因为这些中心遍布全球。
I should say, since the Ethereum Everywhere team, was launched, every 30, since then there has been an Ethereum community community hub launched, is pretty cool because like these are all over the world.
你可以看到地图上，旧金山、伦敦、迪拜、香港、拉各斯、柏林和罗马都有，我想是这样。
You can see on the map here, there's one in San Francisco, one in London, one in Dubai, Hong Kong, Lagos, Berlin, and Rome, I believe.
还会陆续增加更多，罗马的中心好像即将上线。
And there's gonna be more that's Rome's coming, I think.
是的。
Yeah.
罗马还没有呢。
Rome's not there yet.
但确实如此。
But yeah.
而且随着时间推移，显然还会增加更多。
And there's gonna be more obviously as time goes on here.
这些社区中心对于招募新成员、吸引新人加入生态系统至关重要。
And these community hubs are really important for recruiting and bringing in new people into the ecosystem.
所以现有成员可能也在其中，但它们真正出色的地方在于能吸引来自世界各地的新成员，而不仅仅是来自美国或欧洲的人。
So existing people are probably there as well, but where they really shine is bringing in new people and bringing new people from around the world, not just from The US or from Europe.
对吧？
Right?
这两个是加密领域最大的市场，但我们希望在全球各地都设立这样的社区中心。
Those are the two biggest markets within crypto, but we wanna have these community hubs everywhere around the world.
目前，这些中心主要设在主要地区，比如香港、迪拜、伦敦等等。
Now, these ones are in the major places so far, Hong Kong, Dubai, London, so so on and so forth.
但我们也希望在世界上的小城市设立这些中心，因为我们需要让那些人加入进来。
But we also want to have them in smaller places around the world because we want to get those people onboarded.
我们希望为这些用户或开发者带来改变，给予他们新的机会，并让他们参与到以太坊生态系统中。
We want to make a difference to those people whether they be as users or developers and give them new opportunities and get them involved with Ethereum specifically.
因为这回到我之前提到的观点：我们必须确保世界认识到，以太坊与整个加密生态系统的其他部分截然不同，它在合法性和生态健康方面都独树一帜。
Because this goes back to what I was saying earlier about the fact that we need to make sure that the world starts to understand that Ethereum is very, very different to the rest of the crypto ecosystem and stands on its own in terms of legitimacy and in terms of the health of of the Ethereum ecosystem versus others out there.
所以，我想在这里特别感谢以太坊基金会的‘Ethereum Everywhere’团队。
So, yeah, I just wanted to shout out here to the Ethereum everywhere team at the EF.
他们正在全球范围内出色地推动这些社区中心的建立。
They're doing great work here launching these community hubs around the world.
我们最后要提到的，是Vivek在以太坊社区大力推广的一个非常棒的口号或标语：以太坊是做生意的最佳场所。
Our last up here is something that I think is a really good kind of slogan or tagline for Ethereum that Vivek from Ethereum has been pushing a lot, but also some other people in the ecosystem where he basically says Ethereum is the best place to do business.
这不仅仅局限于加密原生领域的商业，也包括加密之外的商业场景。
Now this is not just within the, I guess, crypto native context of business, but also outside of it.
他在这里展示了一张截图，黑石公司显然深度参与了以太坊，但其中引用了黑石公司一位代表的话：如果你是一位投资者，希望参与区块链技术日益普及的浪潮，目前最优秀且增长最快的用例之一就是代币化，而以太坊正是这一趋势的受益者。
And he was sharing a screenshot here where, you know, BlackRock basically obviously is is very, involved with Ethereum, but there was a quote of, someone, a representative of BlackRock saying, if you're an investor looking to play the growing adoption of blockchain technology, one of the best and probably fastest growing use cases right now is tokenization and Ethereum is a beneficiary of that trend.
拉里·芬克最近在达沃斯表示，这种代币化领域最终只会存在一条单一的链，也只会有一个结算层。
And Larry Fink recently at Davos was saying that there there's only really gonna be one kind of single chain for this tokenization stuff, and there's only gonna be kinda one settlement layer.
显然，这条链就是以太坊。
And obviously, that's gonna be Ethereum.
我觉得，目前没有任何其他链能够胜任这一角色，但这还远远不止这些，朋友们。
Like, I don't think there's any other chain out there that can fulfill that role, but it goes way beyond that guys.
就以太坊作为‘最佳商业平台’而言，我认为最明显的例子就是现有的各种二层网络。
Like, in terms of Ethereum being the best place to do business, I think that the the, I guess most obvious example of this is the layer twos out there.
我知道，有些人会问我：如果一层网络已经在扩展，而且ZKVM等技术也即将到来，那我们为什么还需要二层网络呢？
Now I know, you know, some people will ask me the question of, oh, why do we need layer twos if layer one is scaling and we got ZKVMs coming and, you know, so on and so forth.
但我一直坚持这一观点：对任何区块链而言，可扩展性都是基本门槛。
But I've always been pretty consistent with this view that scaling for any chain is table stakes.
如果你的链不具备扩展性，那它作为一条链基本上就毫无用处。
Like, you're not scalable, then, you know, you're you're kinda useless as a as a chain.
至少是一个通用链。
At at least a generalized chain.
显然，比特币是不同的，因为比特币并不做任何通用性的事情，也不需要比现在更具扩展性，因为它本质上只是用来保障BTC的简单账本。
Obviously, Bitcoin is different because Bitcoin doesn't do generalized anything, doesn't actually need to be more scalable than it is today because that's really just supposed to be a dumb ledger for securing BTC.
如果比特币社区希望它如此，那当然可以。
That's what the Bitcoin community wants it to be, then sure.
没问题。
Fine.
但当谈到通用链时，它们都必须具备相当的可扩展性。
But when it comes to generalized chains, they all have to be quite scalable.
对吧？
Right?
并不需要同等程度的可扩展性。
Not equally as scalable.
比如，以太坊一层永远不可能像二层那样具有高扩展性，但它们仍然应该具备一定的可扩展性。
Like, Ethereum l one is never gonna be as scalable as the l twos, but they should still be scalable.
但正如我所说，二层网络就像是为它们提供稳定的质押机制。
But then the layer twos is like scaling, as I said, stable stakes for them.
如果你的二层网络不具备可扩展性，那你就毫无用处。
Like if you're not a scalable layer two, then you're just useless.
而且更重要的是，二层网络能为你提供控制权和可定制性。
And on but on top of that is the fact that like a layer two gives you, control and customizability.
控制权对去中心化企业来说是有好处的。
Now control is good for decentralized businesses.
大多数二层网络并不会是去中心化的，这也没关系。
Layer two is not most of them aren't gonna be decentralized guys, and that's fine.
二层网络的核心意义就在于它可以是任何东西。
The whole point is that like a layer two can be anything.
所以，如果一家公司或企业想参与链上经济，但又不希望去中心化或做其他改变。
So if a company wants to come in, or corporation wants to come in and say, well, hey, we wanna get involved with the on chain economy, but we don't want to be decentralized or anything.
他们希望对一切拥有控制权，出于隐私、监管等原因。
We want control over everything because of privacy reasons, regulatory reasons, so on and so forth.
他们最简单的方式就是在以太坊之上构建一个二层网络。
The easiest way for them to do that is to just build a layer two on top of Ethereum.
但另一方面，你也可以拥有一个去中心化的二层网络，而无需遵守以太坊一层的限制。
But then on the flip side, you can also have a decentralized layer two, but then you don't have to abide by Ethereum layer one's restrictions.
比如，你不必非得是 EVM。
Like, you don't have to be EVM.
你可以使用其他虚拟机，或者不必以某种特定方式做事。
You can be another virtual machine, or you don't have to do, you know, things a certain way.
你可以选择内置原生的气体机制，或者原生账户机制，甚至在用户与链交互时直接为他们提供智能账户。
You can have, like, native kind of gas obstruction if you want or native account, obstruction or give everyone a smart account from when they interact with the chain.
他们不能使用外部拥有的账户，只能使用智能账户，或者像 Aztec 这样的隐私型二层网络那样完全私有。
They can't use EOAs, they can only use smart accounts like or just be private like privacy l two like Aztec for example.
因此，实现这一点的方式有很多种。
So there's just many different ways to do this.
这就是为什么以太坊是最适合开展业务的地方——你可以为任何商业用途定制所需的链，并通过二层网络接入以太坊生态系统。
So that's why Ethereum is the best place to do business is because you can customize the chain that you want for any business use case and just plug into the Ethereum ecosystem via an l two.
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正如我所说，这一点多年来一直是我非常一致的观点。
And I as as I've said, like, this has been a very consistent view of mine for many years now.
你现在可能已经看到，至少五年前我就在谈论这个了。
You can probably see this, see me talking about this at least five years ago at this point.
我认为，随着越来越多非加密领域的机构、公司和企业意识到这一点，他们最终都会选择以太坊。
And I think that as more and more of these kind of, outside of crypto institutions and companies and corporations clue into this, they'll just settle on Ethereum.
事实上，这里根本没有其他真正可以选择的地方。
Like, there's nowhere else really to to to kind of settle on here.
就是以太坊，以及基于以太坊的二层网络，仅此而已。
Just like it's Ethereum and then it's a layer twos on Ethereum and that's really it.
这正是我们需要的。
Like, that's what we need.
这正是世界应该拥有的。
That's what the world should have.
有些人会反驳我说：你只是希望人们在以太坊上构建，因为这对你的持仓有利。
And people will say, you know, some people will hit back at me and say, well, you just want people to build on Ethereum because it's good for your bags.
这根本就是个愚蠢的论点，因为我持有ETH并不是因为这对我有利，而是因为我相信，出于各种原因，以太坊最终会凭借自身优势胜出。
It's like, well, that's just a stupid argument because like I didn't like I hold ETH because I believe that, you know, for for for a variety of different reasons, but I also believe that Ethereum is gonna win on its merits.
当然，我希望人们在以太坊上构建，因为这是我所参与的生态系统，也是我认为最棒的做事方式。
And yes, of course, I want people to build on Ethereum, because like that's my ecosystem that I'm part of and that's what I think is the best kind of, way of doing things.
但与此同时，我怎么想并不重要，重要的是以太坊能提供什么。
But at the same time, it doesn't matter what I think, it just matters what Ethereum offers.
我确实深信，以太坊为企业上链提供了最佳方案。
And I do just truly believe Ethereum offers the best way for businesses to come on chain.
我认为这些年来它已经证明了这一点，并且未来还会通过量子抗性、ZKVM、轻量级以太坊，以及Layer 2的不断成熟，继续证明这一点。
And I think that it has proven that out over the years and it's gonna continue to prove that out through things like, you know, quantum resistance, through things like, ZKVMs and lean Ethereum and obviously layer twos and getting more mature there.
所以，各位，这些进展都在发生。
So there's all that stuff happening guys.
因此，我认为这无疑会成为未来越来越明显的趋势。
So so that's definitely something that is gonna become more of a trend I think going forward.
我认为这与我之前说的相吻合：我希望以太坊，而且我现在非常有信心，我们能让以太坊摆脱加密货币的全部包袱，独立成为真正严肃且可信中立的生态系统。
And I think that that fits into what I was saying earlier about the fact that I hope Ethereum and I'm I'm pretty confident at this stage that we can get Ethereum to move past all the baggage of crypto and just stand alone as a serious and I guess like credibly neutral ecosystem there.
好的。
Alright.
上周的新闻就这些了。
That's all the news to cover from the last week.
我之前说过，我想在本集末尾聊聊市场。
I did say that I wanna talk a bit about markets at the end of this episode.
现在人们一直问我来一段看涨的激昂演讲。
Now people have been asking me for a bullish rant.
你们都知道，我时不时会做这样的演讲，尤其是关于ETH的。
As you guys know, I do those from time to time, specifically obviously about ETH.
我会做，但我也想在这里提供一个更宏观的视角。
I will do that, but I also wanna give like a broader view here on things.
所以，对于任何关心这个问题的人，我关于四年周期已死的观点丝毫没有改变。
So I think that my view like of the four year cycle being dead hasn't changed at all, like for anyone wondering about that.
我对于加密货币价格和市场现状的看法，与上次提到的非常相似。
And my views around why crypto is the way it is in terms of prices and markets are very similar to what I mentioned last time.
但我想要强调的是，我在Dailyway Discord频道里说过的话可能让一些人感到困惑。
But I think what I wanted to kinda hit on was something that I said in the Dailyway Discord channel may have confused some people.
我说过，我认为以太坊和更广泛的加密货币面临的困境在于，它本质上很难理解，很多人根本不知道它的价值所在，也不明白这项技术有什么用。
I said that I think ETH and crypto maybe more broadly suffers from the fact that it's just inherently difficult to understand and a lot of people just don't understand what the value is and they don't understand what this technology is good for.
人们也会对像AI这样的技术提出同样的论点。
And people will make the same argument for something like, you know, AI.
他们会说，如果你深入研究AI，其实很难理清它的逻辑。
They're like, well, you know, AI, if you actually dig deep into it, it's kinda hard to to to kinda reason through.
它很难理解。
It's hard to understand.
但不知为何，每个人似乎都明白AI的价值。
But for some reason, everyone, you know, understands AI, the value of it.
他们推高了所有软件公司的股价，推高了制造硬件所需的各种贵金属的价格，也推高了所有硬件公司的股价。
They're bidding up all the kind of software companies, they're bidding up all the the, the the precious metals that go into making, you know, kind of hardware bidding up all the hardware companies.
对此，我只想说，那是因为他们有与AI交互的明显方式。
But to that, I'll just say, well, it's because they have an obvious way of interfacing with AI.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，OpenAI 声称有十亿人使用过 ChatGPT。
So the I mean, OpenAI claims that a billion people have used ChatGPT.
这显然会远远超过实际使用过 ChatGPT 的真实人数。
Now that's gonna be obviously like way over what the amount of real people that will have used ChatGPT is.
但即使我们假设有一亿人使用过 ChatGPT。
But let's even say a 100,000,000 people have used ChatGPT.
我们再往低了说，只取他们宣称人数的 10%，而且这还只是 ChatGPT 一个平台。
Let let's take like the lower lower end tier and say only 10% of the claims has used ChatGPT, and that's only ChatGPT by the way.
还有 Gemini、Copilot、Claude，还有其他各种 AI 存在。
Like, there's Gemini, there's Copilot, there's Claw, there's always AIs out there.
这些都直接连接着这项技术，而且是极其人性化、非常友好的交互界面，让人们能立刻感受到它的魅力。
That is a direct interface into this technology and a very human interface, a very kind of nice interface for people to use and immediately get the the hype around it.
因为只要你打开像 Gemini 或其他任何 AI，输入任何内容，它都会立刻给你回应。
Because as soon as you go to one of these AIs like Gemini or or whatever, and you type in anything, it'll spit back something to you.
而且即使你只是去谷歌搜索，它现在也会给你提供AI生成的结果。
And even if you just go to Google, it'll give you AI results for things now.
对吧？
Right?
这种情况已经持续一段时间了，但你知道，人们正在他们已有的平台上实时接触到这些技术。
It has for for a little while, but, you know, people are being exposed to it in real time on the platforms that they're already on.
在推特上，你有Grok。
On Twitter, you've got Grok.
对吧？
Right?
而且这无处不在。
So and that's everywhere.
你可以看到，这里有个Grok按钮。
You can see here, like, there's the Grok button.
如果我点击它，它会给我提供更多关于维韦克帖子的上下文信息。
If I press that, it's gonna give me more context around Vivek's post.
我实际上经常在Twitter上使用Grok来帮我解释一些事情，可能是我还不了解的内容，这其实挺酷的。
And I actually find myself using Grok quite a bit on Twitter to explain things to to me, maybe things that I'm just not aware of, which is actually pretty cool.
我得承认，多年来我给了Twitter不少批评。
Like I'll I'll give it that I've given Twitter a lot of shit over the years.
我仍然觉得它之所以易用，是因为里面充斥着机器人之类的东西。
I still think it's like accessible because it's full of bots and everything like that.
但Grok确实很不错。
But Grok is is pretty good.
它并不差。
It's not bad.
我的意思是，它当然有缺点，但我确实有时很喜欢用它。
Like, I mean, it's got its faults, but I I do I do enjoy using it at times.
但再说一遍，这种功能已经被整合到了人们本来就在使用的平台上。
But again, this is the integrated into places that people already are.
但在另一个极端，比如加密货币领域，像以太坊、比特币之类的，其实并没有真正融入人们日常接触的各类平台中。
But then on the other end of of the kind of spectrum here, have crypto and you have like Ethereum and and, you know, Bitcoin, whatever, and they're not really integrated into into much of the things that people already interface with.
它们有自己的封闭型经济，比如以太坊链上经济规模很大，但非常封闭。
They have their own kind of insular economies, like the Ethereum on chain economy is big, but like it's very insular.
对吧？
Right?
你不会看到稳定币支付被整合到各种场景中。
You don't see, you know, payments of like stablecoin payments integrated with everything.
比如，你不会在每一个 Shopify 商店中都看到这种整合。
You don't have it integrated with every Shopify store, for example.
是的。
Yes.
它们确实提供了这种选择权，但并没有强加给你。
They've got the optionality there, but it hasn't been forced on you.
就像人工智能是被强加给人们的，对吧？
Like AI was forced on people, right?
比如，它已经被强制融入你的谷歌搜索结果中。
Like, like it's forced into your Google search results.
你可以做一些事情来把它从搜索结果中移除，但普通人不会这么做。
You can do things to I guess remove it from search results but the average person isn't gonna do that.
所以它是强加给你的。
So it is forced on you.
Grok 也是强加给你的。
Grok is forced on you.
我没法从 Twitter 上移除 Grok。
Like I can't remove Grok from Twitter.
我没法移除这个图标。
I can't remove this icon here.
你知道，它就在那里，对吧？
You know, it's there, right?
在回复里它也在。
And in the replies it's there.
而且显然，它充斥在媒体和新闻等各种地方。
So, and obviously it's all in the media and all in the news and everything.
所以当人们能够直接接触这些事物时，他们就更容易理解和重视它们。
So when people have a direct interface into things, it it it's easy for them to reason about and value it.
而在加密货币领域，大多数人接触加密货币的唯一直接方式就是在交易所购买资产。
Whereas within crypto, the only direct interface most people had into crypto was buying the asset on an exchange.
他们从未真正使用过这项技术。
It was never actually using the technology.
因此，对这些人来说，整个加密生态系统就只是这个资产本身。
So the the the the whole crypto ecosystem to these people was just the asset.
但在其他行业中，情况则有所不同。
Whereas there is a separation of this within other industries.
比如在人工智能领域，是的，你可以购买那些推动人工智能或整合了人工智能的公司。
Like within AI, yeah, you can go buy the companies, that are powering AI or have integrated AI.
是的。
Yeah.
你可以购买那些正在抢购所有硬件的硬件制造商，比如显而易见的英伟达，但还有英特尔、AMD、闪迪、西数等。
You can go buy the hardware manufacturers that are bidding up all the hardware like, obviously, NVIDIA, but there's, you know, Intel, AMD, SanDisk, Seagate.
外面有太多这样的公司了。
There's so many out there.
对吧？
Right?
但人们也感受到了由此带来的负面影响，比如硬件价格上涨。
But then people also feel the negative effects of that with hardware prices going up.
没错，硬件变得越来越贵。
Right, and hardware getting more expensive.
所以这一切都促使人们直接与这些技术互动。
So that all just is it leads to people interfacing directly with this.
但在加密货币领域，大多数人——你知道的，除非你购买代币，否则根本没有任何途径接触它。
But within crypto, most people, you know, unless you're buying the assets, like, they just have no interface to it at all.
他们并没有在日常使用的应用中使用链上产品。
They're not using the on chain products within their everyday apps that they're already using.
比如，你能想象在推特上，每一条帖子旁边都有一个小按钮，你可以点击支持创作者，用USDC或ETH打赏吗？
Like, could you imagine if on Twitter, for example, on every single post, there was a little button here that you could press that says, you know, support this creator with USDC or support this creator with ETH.
对吧？
Right?
而且每条帖子上都有，不可协商，必须存在。
And that was on every post, non negotiable, you can't remove it, it's there.
这样会立刻让人停下来想：哦，原来这就是加密货币。
Like that would immediately give people a pause to be like, oh, oh, this is crypto.
对吧？
Right?
哇，真的吗。
Oh, wow.
我居然真的能用加密货币做点什么。
I can actually use crypto for something.
对吧？
Right?
所以，只要这么简单的一个功能，但至今还没实现。
So just something as simple as that, but that has not happened.
这些事情并没有像多年来所宣传的那样真正实现。
That has not materialized as much as that some of these things have been teased over the years, just not has materialized yet.
因此，正因如此，我在Daily Go Discord频道里说，我认为很多这些东西都被误解了，这导致了加密货币整体估值偏低。
So because of that, and that's why I said in the Daily Go Discord channel that I think a lot of this stuff is just misunderstood and that leads to lower valuations for crypto generally.
因为你可以实际去查看，我这里说的不只是Ethan BTC，你还可以去看看一些加密货币中的代币，它们因为所关联的产品而产生了真实收入。
Because you can actually go see, and I'm not just talking about like Ethan BTC here, but you can go look at some of these tokens within crypto that have real revenues like tied to them because of the products that they're tied to.
它们确实在产生收入。
They're generating revenues.
其中一些目前估值偏低，但没人知道，因为除了加密原生用户外，没人与之互动。
Some of them are pretty undervalued at this point, but like no one knows about it because no one's interfacing with it besides crypto natives.
我们没有突破这个泡沫。
We're not breaking outside of this bubble.
我们没有与真实人群接触。
We're not interfacing with real people.
你可以说，这一直是加密货币最大的问题：我们对外界的唯一曝光，正如我开头所说，是诈骗和炒作的新闻，而且人们只购买资产，却不使用链上产品。
And that you could argue is always being crypto's biggest issue is that the only exposure to the outside world that we get is via, as I said at the beginning, the headlines of scams and grips, but also people only buying the assets, not using the on chain products.
所以每当我看到像Coinbase会发推文说，或者某些其他加密企业会发推文，或者某些研究声称：有八千万美国人，或者一亿美国人使用加密货币时，
So that's what whenever I see like, you know, Coinbase will tweet about this or some other kind of, I guess, crypto business will tweet about this where they say or some research will say, well, 80,000,000 Americans or whatever, a 100,000,000 Americans, you know, use crypto or whatever.
其实不是这样的。
It's like, no.
他们并没有使用加密货币。
They don't.
他们根本没在使用加密货币。
They don't use crypto.
他们可能曾经在某个时候，像买股票一样，通过中心化交易所买过一次加密货币，就像他们通过经纪账户买股票一样。
They they may have one at one point in time bought crypto on a centralized exchange just like they would buy a stock on their brokerage, you know, through their brokerage account or whatever.
这并不算真正使用加密货币，就像我买苹果股票并不等于我在使用苹果产品一样。
Like that's not using crypto just as much as me buying Apple stock is not using Apple products.
所以在这里，购买资产和使用技术之间有着非常明确的区别。
So there is a very distinct difference here between buying the asset and using the the the technology.
而在真正使用链上产品的人和仅仅买入代币的人之间，存在着巨大的鸿沟。
And and there's just like a very huge divide here between the people who've actually used on chain products and the people who who have, bought the coin.
你可以说，很多人在链上买了代币。
And you could say that, well, a lot of people, you know, bought the coin on chain.
他们去链上买了模因币。
They went and bought meme coins on chain.
是的，好吧，没错。
It's like, yeah, okay, sure.
但与使用这些其他产品的人数相比，这仍然是极少数人。
But that is still a very small amount of people compared to the amount of people that are using these other products.
根本不可能有接近一亿人曾经在链上做过对他们真正有益的事情。
Like, is no way that we have anywhere close to a 100,000,000 people who have ever done something on chain and something on chain that's actually beneficial to them.
你可以说，人们在链上做的很多事就是购买代币。
You could argue that a lot of the stuff that people have done on chain is buying the tokens.
对吧？
Right?
但那样的话，他们早就被套牢了，因为买代币通常都会被套牢。
But then they would have gotten wrecked because buying the tokens usually gets you wrecked.
所以对他们来说，这是一次净负面的体验。
So it's been a net negative experience for them.
比如，使用人工智能不会让我亏钱。
Like interfacing with AI for example, is not going to lose me money.
我的意思是，除非我用得特别蠢，当然了。
I mean, not unless I'm doing something stupid with it, of course.
当然，还是有亏钱的方法的。
Like there there are ways to lose money.
但我问AI一个问题，最多也就是它给了我一个我不想听的答案，让我有点不爽而已。
But me asking AI AI a question, at most it could maybe make me feel like upset because it gave me an answer I didn't wanna hear or something like that.
对吧？
Right?
但它不会让我亏钱。
But like it's not gonna lose me money.
而加密货币中也有这样的方面。
Whereas within crypto is that aspect to it as well.
你这么做，买这些东西，肯定会亏钱。
Like you're gonna lose money doing this, buying these these kind of things.
所以，直到技术真正被人们采用和使用——即使他们只是通过中心化中介与之交互——我认为加密货币依然难以突破我们这个小圈子。
So again, until we get the point to the point where the technology is actually being adopted by people and used by people, even if they're just interfacing with it through centralized intermediaries, I I think just crypto struggles to break out of our little bubble.
除了传统四年周期的涨跌波动，那些繁荣与萧条时期吸引很多人进来买币、使用技术之外，我们一直都在这个环节上挣扎。
And we've always struggled at that besides the, you know, the ups and downs of the traditional four year cycles where the boom and bust periods brought a lot of people in just to buy the coins, to use the technology.
因此，以太坊最看涨的因素是技术的采用，而不是ETH资产的采用。
So the most bullish thing for Ethereum is the adoption of the technology, not the adoption of Ethi asset.
是的，我们当然希望更多人购买ETH资产，这很好，但如果这种购买没有伴随对区块链的采用，没有让新用户意识到这不仅仅是一枚币，而是去使用这些产品并将其融入日常生活，
Like, yes, we want more people buying Ethi asset and that's cool and all, but if it doesn't come with adoption for the chain and it doesn't come with, new people, know, realizing that this is more than just a coin and using the products and getting this integrated with everything.
那么这些资产（不仅限于ETH，还包括其他资产）就不可能实现长期的价格上涨。
It's not gonna come with long term, kind of price appreciation here for these assets, not just ETH but other assets as well.
所以，这大概就是我对市场的总体看法。
So that is just a general kind of broad view I guess like of of the market.
现在，从更微观的角度来看，关于正在发生的事情。
Now in terms of like a more I guess microscopic view about what's happening.
我认为，很多情况可以用这样一个事实来解释：其他每个市场都在从加密货币中吸走资金，对吧？
I think that a lot of it can be explained by the fact that every other market is just sucking out the money of of, from crypto, right?
因为你不仅看到资金流入与人工智能相关的股票，可以说。
Because you haven't just got like the money going into the AI related stocks, guess you could say.
不仅仅是通过私人投资进入人工智能公司本身，我认为其中一些公司是上市公司，或者至少我不觉得它们中有多少是私有的，但资金还在流入硬件制造商和所有软件公司。
Like, not just the AI companies themselves through private investing, but also I believe some of them are publicly traded or at least I don't think there's many of them that are, but then the money is going into the hardware manufacturers, as I said, all the software companies.
对吧？
Right?
但除此之外，你还看到贵金属如黄金和白银经历了长期未见的巨大牛市。
But then as on top of that, you've also got a, a massive historic bull run-in precious metals like gold and silver and others, which hasn't happened for a very long time.
你知道，如果你看黄金走势图，可以非常清楚地看到，黄金曾经长期毫无表现。
You know, if you look at the gold chart, you can very clearly see that gold just did nothing for a long time.
这还是没有考虑通货膨胀的黄金走势图。
And that's the gold chart not factoring in inflation.
我之前刚看过经通胀调整后的黄金走势图。
I actually just looked at the inflation adjusted gold chart before.
如果我没看错的话，黄金在扣除通胀因素后，整整四十五年都没创下新高。
If I was looking at it right, which I think I was, gold didn't hit an inflation adjusted all time high for forty five years.
从1980年到2025年。
So from 1980 to 2025.
可能有人会纠正我，也许我弄错了，但没错，我确实看了眼前这张图表。
Now someone may correct me on that, maybe I'm wrong on that, but, yeah, I I looked at this this chart that I had in front of me.
实际上，我或许能给你们调出来，因为我刚刚才看过这张图。
Actually, I may be able to bring it up for you guys because I I was only looking at it very, very recently here.
如果我查一下经通胀调整后的黄金价格，这就是我之前看的网站。
If I go to inflation adjusted gold prices, this is the website I was looking at.
我不知道这个网站叫什么，但你们现在能在我屏幕上看到。
I don't know what this website is, but you can see it on on my screen right here.
所以，这显然是经通胀调整后的黄金价格。
So this apparently is the inflation adjusted gold gold price.
你们可以看到，这里就是1980年。
You you can see here, this is, 1980.
这是12月19日，或者2月，或者某个月份，但这里显示的是1980年，当时黄金的通胀调整后价格是3400美元。
This is December 19 December or February or somewhere, some some kind of month here, but that's that's 1980 there where gold was 3,400 US dollars inflation adjusted.
对吧？
Right?
然后它再次达到这个历史高点是在……等等，不是战争。
And then when it got back to that all time high was in at the end of, war no.
不是。
No.
不是，没错。
Not not yeah.
大约在2025年，或者2025年年中左右。
Towards the 2025 or like mid twenty twenty five or something like that.
但你看，这可是整整四十五年啊，各位。
But still, like, that's forty five years there, guys.
所以，从这个角度来看，大家都在为贵金属、黄金之类的东西感到害怕错过。
So, like, when you look at it from from that perspective, like everyone's getting FOMO over precious metals and gold and and and stuff like that.
我觉得白银的走势也类似。
I think the silver chart similar to this.
每个人都因为加密货币毫无起色之类的说法而感到错失恐惧。
Everyone's getting FOMO over this being like, oh, crypto is doing nothing blah blah blah.
就像，好吧。
It's like, okay.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
当然。
Sure.
但如果你看看这个，如果你在这整个期间持有黄金，嗯，好吧，你可以在不同阶段买入，然后获利等等。
But then if you look at this, if you had held gold through this entire period, like, yeah, okay, you could have bought at different periods and been up and and so on.
所以你本可以在2000年左右低价买入，然后持有十年上涨，之后在这里卖出之类的。
So you could have bought down here in like the year 2000 and then wrote it up for ten years and then, you know, cashed out here and stuff like that.
是的，当然。
Like, yeah, sure.
你本可以赚钱，但如果你从经通胀调整后的历史高点来看，它花了这么长时间才恢复，情况确实很糟糕。
You could have made money and stuff, but if you're looking at from all time high to all time high inflation adjusted, it's it's pretty like dire in terms of like, in terms of how long it took to recover.
然后你还可以看到从2011年到2024年这段时间。
And then you can also see during the entire period of like 2011 to basically like 2024.
在长达十三年的时间里，它都没能突破2011年创下的这个高点——虽然这并不是历史最高点，但它确实没突破。
So over a thirteen year period, it didn't break that kind of high that it set in in 2011 here, which wasn't the all time high, but it didn't break that high.
你知道那段时间加密货币在干什么吗？
Guess what crypto was doing during that time?
它疯涨了。
It was going nuts.
对吧？
Right?
我们当时还嘲笑黄金派呢。
Like, we were making fun of gold bugs.
你可以在BTC与黄金比率图中看到这一点，现在这张图对BTC来说看起来相当糟糕，但在过去的几年之前，它曾经非常亮眼。
You can see this in like the BTC gold ratio chart, which now looks, you know, pretty bad for BTC, but it looked amazing before the last couple of years.
所以每当我看到这些情况，看到这些所谓的FOMO现象时，我就会想，你之前根本没关注黄金，因为你根本不在乎它，毕竟它一直原地踏步，长期横盘。
So so whenever I kinda see these things and see these kind of, I guess, FOMOs and stuff like that, I I kinda think to myself, well, you know, you didn't look at gold because you didn't care about gold, like, because it was doing nothing and it sat sideways forever.
你根本没想到它会突然这样上涨。
You didn't know it was gonna was gonna gonna kinda go like that.
但现在它真的涨了，这无疑大量抽走了原本可能流入加密货币的资本，因为加密货币一直被拿来和黄金作比较。
But now that it is, it's a huge, drain, I think, on available capital that can go into crypto because crypto has obviously been compared to gold a lot.
比如BTC自称是数字黄金。
Like, BTC saying that it's digital gold.
但如果黄金暴涨而BTC却毫无动静，你觉得那些见风使舵的加密投资者会怎么做？
But if gold is going nuts and BTC is doing nothing, what do you think a lot of fair weather crypto investors are doing?
他们会抛售自己的BTC和其他加密资产，转而买入黄金或进入股市。
They're cashing out of their BTC and other crypto assets and they're going into gold or they're going into the stock market.
对吧？
Right?
这仅仅是对外部资本流入加密货币的一个巨大消耗。
And that's just a drain, a massive drain on the amount of available capital for crypto.
那么显而易见的问题是，这种情况会一直持续下去吗？
Now the obvious question is, is this always gonna be like this?
我们是不是就困在角落里，毫无需求，加密货币会不会慢慢流失，最终归零？
Are we just stuck, you know, in the corner, not getting any demand, and is crypto just gonna slowly bleed out until it goes to zero?
显然不会。
Obviously not.
对吧？
Right?
事情根本不是这样运作的。
Like, that's not not how things work.
但这里其实存在多种可能的发展路径。
But there is also, like, multiple timelines that we could go down here.
第一条路径，可能是最糟糕的情况。
Timeline one, which is probably the worst timeline.
加密货币就像黄金一样，在十年、二十年、三十年里毫无作为，按实际通胀调整后的价格也毫无变化。
Crypto does nothing for like ten, twenty, thirty years like gold did or in terms of inflation adjusted prices.
对吧？
Right?
那可太糟糕了。
That would suck.
那简直糟透了。
That would absolutely suck.
那会是我能想到的关于加密货币最糟糕的 scenario，因为那会对所有人造成最大的痛苦。
That would be like just the worst possible scenario that I can think of in terms of, in in in terms of crypto because that would just be maximum pain for everyone.
我觉得这种可能性大吗？
Do I think that timeline's likely?
我的确对加密货币持看涨立场，但我并不认为这种情景会真的发生。
I mean, I'm obviously bullish bias towards crypto, but I just don't think that timeline's likely.
我觉得现在事情不可能再这么缓慢地发展了。
Like, I don't think that things move that slow anymore.
我认为由于信息时代，事物的发展速度要快得多。
I think things move a lot faster due to the information age.
对吧？
Right?
而且我认为，就金融体系而言，它仍然需要大幅升级，而以太坊正是升级它的途径。
And I think that obviously when it comes to the financial system, it still needs to be massively upgraded and Ethereum is the way to upgrade it.
所以从这个角度来看，我不看空。
So just not bearish from that perspective.
但还有一种可能是，如果贵金属牛市有所降温，也许不会结束，但会暂时放缓，然后股市和AI相关板块会飙升后回落。
But then there's the the the kind of like other timeline of, well, you know, if the precious metals bull market kind of cools down, maybe it doesn't end or but it cools down for a little while and then stocks blow off, the AI stuff blows off and they they come down.
加密货币会跟随这一趋势，还是会获得资金青睐？
Does crypto follow that or does crypto get the bid?
因为加密货币是唯一一个最近没什么动静的资产类别。
Because crypto is the only asset class that hasn't done anything for a little while.
这也是一个可能的时间线。
That's a possible timeline as well.
所以这正是我上次说投资变得非常非常困难的原因。
So this is again why I was saying last time that I think investing has become like very, very difficult.
投资一直都很困难，但我认为它变得越来越难了，因为股票市场、贵金属等许多东西都涨了很多。
It's always been difficult, but I think it's just become more and more difficult because so many things have gone up at the stock market, precious metals, stuff like that.
加密货币几乎没有表现。
Crypto hasn't really done much.
所以加密货币投资者基本上就坐在这里，拥有大量加密货币敞口，但却没有对贵金属和股票的任何敞口。
So crypto investors are basically sitting here being like, well, have all this crypto exposure, but I have no exposure to precious metals and stocks.
我属于这一类。
I fall into that bucket.
我最近才开始用积攒已久的现金购买一些股票，我上次也提到过我之前很犹豫，但现在我已经买了一些非常安全的ETF产品，也就是你能买到的最稳妥的投资标的。
I only recently started buying, buying some stocks with with cash that I've had for a while, and I mentioned this last time where I said I was indecisive, but I've just bought some some really safe ETF kind of plays, like the safest stuff you can buy.
澳大利亚的ETF有VAS和VGS。
Aussie ETFs are VAS and and VGS.
VAS是澳大利亚股票，VGS是国际股票，但它们都以澳元计价，并在澳大利亚进行管理，因此在税务等方面更有优势。
VAS is Aussie stocks, VGS International, but they're nominated in AUD and they're and they're serviced in Australia, so better for, like, tax purposes and and and stuff like that.
但我才刚开始接触这类投资。
But like, I've only just started with with that sorts of stuff there.
但随之而来的问题是，我现在买的是不是高点？
But then there there is that question of like, am I buying the top here?
我是不是在买这些股票的高点？
Like, am I buying the top of these stocks?
当然，这些东西是长期投资，但买在高点总是让人不舒服。
Like, obviously, these things are long term investments, but never it never feels good to buy the top on things.
如果今年股市从我买入的价格下跌10%或15%，就像我上周刚买完那样，我肯定会觉得很难受。
Like, if if for some reason the stock market goes down 10% this year from where I bought or 15% this year from where I bought like last week, I'm gonna feel shit about that obviously.
即使我已经决定这些是长期投资。
Like even though I've decided these are long term kind of things here.
但我仍然持有大量的加密货币敞口。
But then I've still got a lot of crypto exposure as well.
所以我正在努力平衡我个人的投资敞口。
So I'm trying to like balance my exposure personally.
我不是在提供投资建议。
I'm not this is not investment advice.
我不是在告诉你们该怎么做，但我认为很多人在这一点上都很犹豫。
This is not me telling you guys what to do, but I think that's what a lot of people have indecision about.
他们觉得，我不想放弃我的加密货币，因为加密货币一直没什么表现。
They're like, I don't wanna give up my crypto because crypto has done nothing.
如果所有资金都转向加密货币怎么办？
And what if everything kind of rotates into crypto?
如果我在黄金的高点买入怎么办？
What if I'm buying the top on gold?
如果我在股票的高点买入怎么办？
What if I'm buying the top on stocks?
这真的让人很沮丧。
And it's just it it sucks.
这种需要考虑的事情，确实让人很烦。
It sucks that that's kind of the that what you have to think about.
因此，传统上给人们的建议是，不要试图预测市场时机。
And that's why traditional kind of advice for for people has been, you know, don't try and time the market.
不要用你大部分的资金去购买单一资产。
Don't try and buy individual things with, you know, massive amounts of your capital.
把90%的资金放在相对安全的投资上，如果需要的话，再用10%去做高风险的投机。
Have like 90% of your capital in relatively safe investments and then put 10% in your moonshot bets if you if you need to.
然后你可以根据你所处的阶段调整这个比例。
And then you can adjust that percentage based on where you are.
比如，如果你才20岁，我觉得你不该采用九比一的分配，因为你一开始可能就没多少钱。
Like if you're if you're 20 years old, I I don't think you should be doing a ninety ten split there because you probably got very little money to begin with.
我认为，实际上反过来可能更合理：用90%的钱去做高风险投资，只留10%存起来，这样这10%会随着时间慢慢积累。
I think honestly, it should be like maybe the other way around where you're using 90% of your money on like risky bets and 10% you're putting away because then that 10% will slowly add up like over time.
随着你成长变老，这个储蓄的比例会越来越大，同时你 hopefully 已经在一些投机项目上操作得不错，从中获利，并逐步调整你的资产配置。
And then as you progress and get older, that becomes a larger and larger share and hopefully you've you've, you know, you've you've kind of played some some things well and taken profits from those other moonshot things that you put money into, and then you you balance it as you go.
但，是的，这取决于你目前所处的阶段。
But, yeah, it depends where you are.
就拿我现在的情况来说，我肯定不应该采取90%高风险、10%安全的配置。
Like, where I am today, like, I definitely shouldn't be like the the 90% risky, 10% safe.
我应该反过来才对。
I should be the other way around.
我现在更倾向于八二分的配置。
I'm more so playing it as like an eighty twenty thing.
我有80%的资金投在了刚才提到的那些ETF，还有一些其他相对安全的投资上。
I'm doing 80% in those, ETFs I just told you about, and and some other relatively safe ones.
我觉得留出20%用于我的投机性投资比较合适。
I think keeping 20% for like my moonshot things.
其中仍然包括加密货币，但也可能投资一些个股、风险较高的ETF，或者贵金属之类的资产。
Still crypto in that as well, but also potentially buying individuals, kind of stocks or riskier kind of ETFs or, precious metals, stuff like that.
所以我还是保留了这类投资。
So I'm still keeping that sort of stuff.
但我也完全清楚，这样做风险很大，因为我可能会在这上面亏钱。
But then I'm also fully aware that it's a big risk to do that too because, it means that I could lose money on that.
它可能会下跌50%之类的。
It could go down 50% or something.
但因为我采用的是八二分法，所以不会对我的投资组合造成巨大拖累，因为这部分只占20%的仓位，而不是80%。
But then but then if because I'm doing it as an eighty twenty split, it's not gonna, you know, be a massive drag on my portfolio because it's only a 20% exposure rather than the 80% exposure to to that.
对吧？
Right?
这全都是关于风险管理。
So it's all about managing your risk.
关键是你要学会及时获利了结，然后把资金轮动到更安全的标的上，因为100%押注超高风险资产，肯定会把所有本金都亏光。
It's all about, you know, making sure that you you kind of take profits as well and then rotate that into less risky things because staying a 100% exposed to super risky things is a sure way a surefire way to round trip everything as well.
但再说一遍，这不是投资建议。
But again, non investment advice.
但是的，我觉得今天关于市场方面我就说这些了。
But yeah, that's I think all I had to say on the on the market front, for today.
我们看看情况会如何发展。
We'll see how things go.
现在才一月而已。
It's still only January.
我对今年的市场仍然相当乐观，但我一直都很乐观。
I'm still quite bullish for for things this year, but I'm always bullish.
所以你怎么理解都行。
So take that as you as you may there.
但我想就说到这里，今天就到此为止了。
But I think on that note, that's going to be it for today.
感谢大家收听和观看。
So thank everyone for listening and watching.
如果你还没订阅频道，请记得订阅。
Be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet.
给个赞吧。
Give it a thumbs up.
去订阅通讯，加入Discord频道，我们下周再见。
Go to newsletter, join the Discord channel, I'll catch you all next week.
谢谢大家。
Thanks everyone.
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