新住宅市场的国有化

亲爱的听众朋友们，提醒一下，如果你要去参加Electric Picnic音乐节，我和约翰将在周五29号下午5点于利什郡的Mind Field现场录制一期播客。现场直播的播客。我们会与你们交流，期待在那里见到大家。

Just a reminder, dear listener, if you are going to electric picnic, John and I are doing a live podcast in Mind Field 05:00 Friday, the twenty ninth in the middle of a field in County Leesch. Live podcast. We will talk to you and see you there.

肯定会很精彩。

Be a humdinger.

要理解经济，你必须先理解人性。本播客由Acast赞助。你那边怎么样？现在是播客时间。约翰已经戴上了他的预订帽子。

To understand the economy, you have to understand human nature. This podcast is powered by Acast. How are you doing there? It is podcast time. John has got his booking hat on.

他穿好了雨靴，已经为周五的Electric Picnic做好了准备。

He's got his wellies on. He's prepared for electric picnic on Friday.

是啊，先疯起来。

Yeah. Mad first.

他今晚会为新植物疯狂。总之，我们要去做那件事。上周我们告诉过你，周五的Electric Picnic。但上周你们还记得我们在讨论荷兰病。我们当时说的是，当一个国家突然获得一笔意外之财或新的收入来源，比如发现某种大宗商品，大量资金涌入经济，虽然你可能认为这总是好事，但有时会导致非常复杂且未必最优的结果。

Gonna be He's mad for tonight, new plants. Anyway, we are going to be doing that. We told you last week, electric picnic on Friday. But last week, you'll remember we were talking about Dutch disease. And what we were saying was when a country gets a sort of a one off windfall or a new source of revenue or let's say for example finds a commodity, loads of money gushes into the economy and although you would think this is always good, sometimes it can lead to very complex complicated and not necessarily the most optimum outcomes.

为什么？因为资金涌入经济推高了价格。上周我随口提了一句，约翰注意到了，说的是国家因此成为全国最大的房屋购买者。约翰这周对我说，得深入探讨一下那句随口之言。没错。

Why? Because there's money gushing into the economy, which drives up prices. Last week, I kinda made a throwaway comment that John picked up on, which was the state, as a result of having all this money, has become the largest purchaser of homes in the country. And John said to me during the week, have to drill a little bit deeper into that throwaway comment. Yeah.

所以今天的播客将解释爱尔兰政府如何成为房产的头号买家，以及国家——正如我们在儿童医院或北地铁等项目中所见——如何表现出我称之为‘财政失禁’的现象，即在花钱时无法自控。爱尔兰政府是推高房价的最大单一原因。这就是今天播客的重点：为何爱尔兰房价上涨？为何截至六月房价年涨7.8%，而工资涨幅仅为其一半？我们在播客中指出，主要推手正是那个声称要压低房价，实则推高房价的政府。

So this today's podcast is going to be explain how the state in Ireland has become the number one buyer of property and how the state because as we've seen in various different things like the Children's Hospital or the Metro North, where the state suffers from what I call fiscal incontinence, but it can't actually control itself when it comes to spending money. The state in Ireland is the single biggest reason that Irish house prices are rising. So this is the point of today's podcast, which is why are Irish house prices rising? Why have Irish house prices risen by 7.8% in the year to June where wages are only rising about half that? We are saying here on the podcast that the main culprit is the state which claims to be driven by an agenda to bring house prices down, but in fact, in practicality, John, it is pushing prices up.

你怎么样，埃德？

How are you, Ed?

我很好，很好。你说得对。上周我们讨论时，我完全沉浸在对话中，你随口说了那句话，我就记在心里了。

I'm good. I'm good. Yeah. You're right. When we were talking last week, I'm so engrossed in the conversation last week that you made that throwaway comment, and I made a mental note.

我们必须回头讨论那件事。我得请他解释清楚。当然，我们已经完成并结束了，而我忘了我的脑力笔记已不如从前。

We must circle back to that. I must ask him to explain that. And, of course, we had done and finished and I'd forgotten my mental notes aren't just what they used to be.

我也是，老兄。我也是。我脑子里就像意大利面交叉路口，东西进进出出，左耳进右耳出。不过你继续说吧。

Mine too, man. Mine too. I've got this kind of spaghetti junction head where things go in and out, know, in one ear and out the other way. Go on anyway.

不，但我对此很好奇，因为当你提到政府是新房最大买家时我很惊讶——这反而导致首次购房者面临更高房价等等，而非通过解决供应问题来降价。所以需要你全面解释。我们深入探讨下。

No, but I am curious about this because I was surprised when you said that the state is the biggest buyer of new houses, which is then leading to further price increases for first time buyers, etcetera, rather than reducing the price by addressing the supply issue. So we need you to explain this fully. Let's get into this.

约翰，首先这是受我们对话启发。其次，说真的，在公共生涯里我几乎从不同情房产中介，对吧？他们不算我最喜欢的人群。对吧？

Well, John, a, this is prompted by a conversation with yourself. But second, it was prompted by a conversation rarely, I think, in public life have I ever felt sorry for estate agents. Right? They're not necessarily my favorite people. Right?

不过你认识不少中介。

You know many of them, though.

我认识一大堆，其中有个还和我踢足球。正是和某个中介的对话让我意识到：现在到处都在开发楼盘，但他们根本分不到羹。过去开发商建好公寓楼会联系中介，由中介代理销售——做营销、弄精美宣传册...

I know loads of them, but I and actually, I play football, one of them, and it was a result of a conversation with one estate agent who was basically saying, you know, there's loads and loads of developments going up all over the place, but we're not seeing any of the action. So the estate agent usually in the old days, what happened was a developer came in, built a block of apartments, contacted an estate agent. The estate agents sold those apartments on behalf of the developer. Did the marketing, had the lovely, like, nice brochures,

你知道的，那些光鲜亮丽的宣传单页之类。

you know, the people Glossy glossy fours and all the rest.

发型精致、牙齿完美、天价正畸账单那种。就是打匹克球（paddle）的精英形象，懂吗？

Great hair and lovely teeth and brilliant orthodontics bills and all that sort of thing. You know, people, you know, people playing paddle. Okay? Right?

是啊，不过那是我新爱好。悠着点。

Yeah. That's my new thing, though. Steady.

知道。"买这公寓你也能成为匹克球玩家"之类的狗屁话术。行了吧。

Yes. I know. You too can be a paddle player if you buy this apartment, right? That sort of shite. Okay.

好的。房产中介当时在场，他们正在极力吹捧。你懂吧？我们了解这个行当，对吧？我们了解这行，而且他们遍布全国。

Okay. And the estate agent was there their part and they're they're they're hyping it up. You know? We know the creature, right? We know the creature and they're all over the country.

爱尔兰每条主街上都有一两家房产中介。是啊。但最近，这些从业者，这个群体正变成濒危物种。他们靠残羹冷炙过活。对吧？

Every main street in Ireland has an estate agent or two. Yeah. But recently, these creatures, this cast is becoming an endangered species. They're living off scraps. Right?

如果你和任何房产中介交谈，他们会告诉你，尽管现在全国各地涌现出大量住宅开发项目，但很少有房子是通过房产中介渠道卖给普通买家的。所以问题是，如果房产中介没有向买家销售，但房子却在建造，那谁在买房？这又为何重要？是的，重要的原因在于房价持续飙升。最新房价数据显示，如节目开头所说，房价上涨了7.8%。

And if you talk to any estate agent, what they'll tell you is that although there's loads and loads of housing developments springing up across the country now, very few of these homes are being sold to punters via the estate agents channels. So the question of if the estate agents aren't selling to buyers, but the buildings are being built, who is buying and why does that matter? Yeah. And the reason it matters is because house prices continue to soar. So the latest house price shows the house prices are up 7.8, as I said, at the top of the show.

现在人们对这些数字已经有点麻木了。他们会说，哦，是啊，随便吧。对吧？

Now people have become kind of inured to these figures. They're like, oh, yeah, whatever. Right?

是啊是啊。就像当你开始用十亿为单位说话时，很快就会失去对整体的概念。而且

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's like when you start talking in billions, you soon lose kind of context of the whole thing. And

没错。到底

Yeah. Exactly. What is the

100亿和200亿有什么区别？

difference between 10,000,000,000 and 20,000,000,000?

正是。这算不算巨款？没错。但关键在于，如果房价增速超过平均工资，就意味着依赖工资收入购房的普通潜在买家

Exactly. Is this serious money or not? Exactly. Exactly. But the point is, if house prices are rising faster than the average wage, it means the average potential house buyer who is depending on the wage for the income to buy the house

是啊。

Yeah.

正被甩得越来越远。现在问题是谁在大量购房？之所以重要，是因为当你观察房屋建设时，一切都完全政治化了。如你所说，政府试图鼓励房屋供应，让建筑商建房。但我在本期播客中想说的是，政府现在不仅掌控着房屋需求，还掌控着供应。

Is falling further and further behind. Now the question is, who is doing all the buying? And the reason this is important is that when you look at house building, everything is entirely political. As you said, the state is trying to encourage house supply, builders to build homes. But what I'm suggesting in this podcast is not only does the state now own the demand for the houses, but it also owns the supply.

所以我们陷入了一个非常奇怪的境地，爱尔兰政府基本上正在把房地产市场变成一个超大规模的公共住房计划，可能是全球最昂贵的公共住房。对吧。

So we've got into a really strange situation where the Irish government is basically turning the housing market into a massive, massive council house scheme, probably the most expensive council houses on earth. Right.

但...但这是新情况吗？原谅我的双关语。但这是新情况吗？是的。确实是。

But but is this a new development? Excuse the pun. But is this a new development? Yes. It is.

确实。好吧。

It is. Okay.

是的。非常非常新。非常非常新。所以我决定不直接看中央统计局（CSO）的汇总数据

It is. It's very, very new. It's very, very new. So what I decided to do was rather than look at the CSO figures in the aggregate

嗯。

Mhmm.

我不想这么做的原因是，每次公布住房数据都会变成政治足球。有人说，看啊我们建了X套房子，这对我们有利。或者新芬党会说你们根本没建房。好吧。

And the reason I didn't wanna do that is because every time there's published numbers on housing, it becomes a political football. Somebody says, oh, look, we're building x amount of houses. That's great for us. Or, you know, Sinn Fein says, oh, you're off and you're not building houses. Fine.

我想到一个考察房地产市场真实情况的方法，就是去翻看大型住宅开发商的账目。对吧？嗯。虽然开发商很多，但有几家是上市公司，会公开财报。经过一番调查，我决定看看国内最大的开发商之一——Cairn Homes公司。

I decided one way of looking and trying to examine what's really going on in the housing market is to kind of poke around the accounts of the big homebuilders. Right? Yeah. Now there's lots of homebuilders, but there's a couple of them are PLCs, so they publish their accounts. And after a bit of digging, I decided to have a look at one of the largest homebuilders in the country is a company called Cairn Homes.

对吧？到处都能看到他们的项目。作为上市公司，他们会公布业绩报告，告诉你业务情况。

Right? You'd see them all over the place. Right? They're they're a public company, so they publish the results. They tell you what they're doing.

如果你查看他们的初步业绩公告（网上就能搜到），会发现非常不寻常的现象。这家公司去年营收8.95亿欧元，接近十亿欧元规模的企业。对吧。

And if you look at the preliminary results, their announcement, right, you can just Google it online, What you find is something really, really unusual. So the company made last year 895,000,000 in revenue. So nearly a billion euro revenue company. Right.

不错。但是

Nice. But

大型企业，对吧？正如我所说，这是一家运营得非常出色的公司。但有趣的是，我查看了账目，在损益表中发现了一个名为‘远期销售订单簿’的项目。

huge company. Right? And again, as I said, it's a really well run company. But it's interesting. I looked at the accounts, and what I found in the accounts was something on the p and l called a forward sales order book.

好的，远期销售订单簿。资产负债表中的这一特定项目几乎翻了一番，从2023年的5.34亿欧元增长到2024年的9.46亿欧元。我当时就想，这是什么？当然，对任何企业来说，远期销售订单簿可能都是天赐之物。

Okay. Forward sales order book. This particular item in the balance sheet doubled almost doubled from €534,000,000 in 2023 to 946,000,000 2024. I thought, like, what is this? Of course, a forward sales order book is probably manna from heaven for any business.

那是什么？需要解释一下吗？那到底是什么？

What is that? Do you need to explain it? What what is that?

好的，它的意思是，这是一个会计术语，描述买方（在这个案例中是政府）直接从建筑商那里购买已经完成基础设施的土地

Okay. So what it means, it's an accounting term to describe when a buyer, in this case, the state, acquires land directly from the builder, buys the land which has been serviced

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后与同一建筑商签约建造所有房屋。这对建筑商来说极其重要，因为它消除了整个项目的风险。

And then contracts the same builder to build all the houses. Now why this is incredibly important for the builder is it derisks the entire thing.

没错。

Right.

基本上，首先，在过去建筑商要承担所有风险，对吧？他们购买土地，然后必须完成土地的基础设施建设，还要通过规划许可。

So basically, for number one, the builder in the old days would have taken all the risk, right? They buy the land. They then have to get the land service. They've got to go through planning permission.

所有那些事情。他们

All that sort of stuff. They

然后必须建造200套公寓。假设他们在一个地产项目上建设，然后他们必须向房产中介、潜在买家推销这些公寓，找到两百个首次购房者来购买这些特定的公寓。

then have to build the 200 flats. Let's say they're building on the on the on the estate, and then they have to market those flats to the estate agents, to the punters, to get two hundred first time buyers to buy those particular flats.

而且越光鲜越好。市场就是这样，越光鲜越好。

And the glossier, the better. The market. The glossier, the better.

但这些都是要花钱的。

But this all costs money.

是的，当然。玻璃材质确实需要成本。

Yes, of course. Yeah. Glass costs money.

众所周知玻璃很昂贵。但现在想象政府介入——远期订单显示政府开始收购房产。现在的情况是政府先买下土地。

Glass costs money as we know. But imagine now the state is coming in. So the forward order book shows the state purchasing of homes. Now what happened now is the state comes in, it buys the land first. Yeah.

建筑商就能稳赚。假设开发商当初买的是未规划、无监管的土地，

So the builders quids in. So whatever let's say the builder bought the land from it was unzoned, unregulated,

未规划的地块。对，没错。

unzoned. Yeah. Yeah.

开发商就能获得全部增值收益。明白吗？政府收购后会说：别担心。

The builder gets all the uplift. Right? The state buys it. The state then says, okay. Don't worry.

实际上土地用途是由政府决定的。

It's actually the state that decides how the land is gonna be used.

正是。所以创造价值的是政府。想想这个逻辑：原本只值农用地价的田地被开发商买入，

Exactly. So it's the state that creates the value. So think about what's happening. Right? So there's a field which is worth agricultural prices.

等政府重新规划后，土地价值从1000万飙升至1亿。最后开发商把土地卖给让它升值的同一家机构。

Builder buys it, waits for the state to rezone it. The land is rezoned. The builder then says, wow. The land's gone from 10,000,000 to 100,000,000. Then he sells the thing to the very agency that made it valuable.

联系政府。对吧？这是远期订单里的内容。然后第二部分是，开发商通常承担我们所谓的住宅开发商风险。住宅开发商风险就是你无法售出所有公寓。

Call the state. Right? This is in the forward orders. Then the second part of this is the builder typically has what we call homebuilder risk. Homebuilder risk is you can't sell all the flats.

你需要时间才能卖出所有公寓。你无法以理想价格出售公寓。是的。你必须调整价格，诸如此类的事情。

It takes you time to sell all the flats. You can't get the right price for the flats. Yeah. You have to change the price, all that sort of stuff.

但公寓应该不愁卖啊。这种情况下就没有风险了，因为

But surely the flats sell themselves. In this case, there's no risk because the

政府承诺全部收购。这就是远期订单。基本上政府表态说，我们会在2028年之前向你购买所有这些公寓。你现在就可以把这笔钱计入账目，因为我们不会违约。

state undertakes to buy it all. So the forward order. So basically, the state has said, we will buy all these flats from you. And let's say 2028. You can bank that money now, because we're not going to default on you.

没错，这完全消除了开发商的资金成本风险，开发商的利润会飙升。那么公寓价格会怎样？如果政府没有争取到极大折扣（通常大宗买家能谈下很大折扣），房价就会上涨，因为是政府在推高价格。比如看看Cairn Homes公司——再次声明这不是针对这家公司，只是以其为代表案例。

Yeah, yeah, it's completely de risks the cost of capital to the builder goes through the floor, the profit for the builder goes through the roof. And then what happens to the price of the apartments? If the state doesn't negotiate a massive, massive discount, and normally bulk buyers negotiate a massive discount, house prices rise because the state is pushing up the price. And if you look at, for example, in Cairn Homes, and again, this is not picking on this company. It's just looking at this company as representative.

发生了什么情况？

What's going on?

对。确实。没错。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Cairn公司发布公告称，政府已预付资金并将在2025年2月前以每套38.2万欧元的均价购买2150套住宅。这意味着政府划定了房价底线，对于首次

Cairn made an announcement that the government have forward funded and purchased 2,150 units as of February 2025 at an average selling price of €382,000. So that is the state saying this is the minimum price for houses For a first

购房者来说。

time buyer.

针对首次购房者。如果央行坚持三倍收入的规定，就意味着本国平均工资要达到40... 44或45美元对吧？

For first time buyers. Now if the central bank stick to three times ruling, it means that the average wage in this country is $40. Yeah. 44, $45. Right?

拿平均工资的人根本买不起这房子。根本买不起。即便是拿平均工资的夫妻俩，合起来收入算100美元，三倍收入意味着他们至少还得再存100美元，或者至少85美元，才能勉强接近这个价格。

Nobody on the average wage can come close to buying this house. Nobody. And even a couple on the average wage with a combined wage of, let's say, a $100, three times earnings means they have to have saved at least another $100 or at least $85 to get even even close to this.

是啊。所以你

Yeah. So what you

能看到的是，首次购房者和首次购房的夫妇正在被排挤出去，不是被其他人，而是被他们缴纳税款的政府。所以他们是在和国家竞争。天啊。对。所以我要说的是，一旦你开始深挖房屋建筑商的账目，你真正看到的是正在发生的事情，因为他们身处第一线。

can see is the first time buyer and the first time buying couple are being elbowed out, not by other people, but by the very government they're paying tax to. So they're in competition with the state. Oh my god. Yeah. So so what I'm saying is, like, once you start digging into the accounts of homebuilders, what you really see is what's really going on because they're at the coal fees.

他们才是真正在做建筑的人。房屋建筑商现在被国家掌控。国家现在也被房屋建筑商掌控，而他们两者都没有动力去降低房价。为什么？因为建筑商想尽可能卖高价。

They're the people who are actually doing the the building. The homebuilders are now in the pocket of the state. The state is now in the pocket of the homebuilders, and both of them together have no incentive on bringing them the price. Why? Because the homebuilders wanna get the best price they can.

而国家，因为上周我们谈到的所有美国资金流入的渠道

And the state, because of all the American money flowing into the spigots we talked about last week

对。

Yep.

对。根本不在乎。他们只想把公关声明里的数字搞上去。我们建了4万套房子。我们建了5万套。

Yep. Doesn't give a shite. All they wanna do is get the numbers for the PR statement up. We built 40,000 houses. We built 50.

等等。你说这是个公关驱动的行为？完全是。全是公关。对吧？

Hang on. That that's quite a statement that you're saying that this is a a PR driven exercise? Completely. It's all PR. Right?

因为政府，

Because the government,

现在的联合政府非常害怕在住房问题上被新芬党超越。对。但一切都是政治。对。新芬党和一般的左翼政党。

the coalition government right now is absolutely terrified of being outflanked on the housing issue by Sinn Fein. Yeah. But everything is political. Yeah. Sinn Fein and the general left parties.

对吧？那些左翼政党，比如人民优先党、社会民主党、工党还有新芬党，都知道住房问题是关键。统一党和共和党也心知肚明。那他们怎么确保自己掌控局面呢？就是不断宣称我们正在建造4万或5万套住房。

Right? And the general left parties, you know, the people before profit and the Social Democrats and the Labour Party and the Shinners know that the key issue is housing. And so too do Fina Fol and Fina Gael. So how do Fina Fol and Fina Gael make sure they're on top of it? They keep coming out and saying we're building 40,000 houses or 50,000 houses.

他们的做法是向建筑商提前订购。这样一来建筑商自然会说，我们不在乎卖给谁。当然啦。于是整个市场就彻底乱套了。

How are they doing this is they are forward ordering from the builders. And of course, therefore the builders are saying, we don't care who we sell to. Of course. Yeah. And the entire market has become completely and utterly dysfunctional.

确实。

Right.

因为国家不仅是最后的买家，更是首选的买家。而你看看这些凯恩公司的数据，它告诉我的是，凯恩的远期订单——

Because not only is the state the buyer of last resort, it's the buyer of first resort. And all the while, if you look at these Cairn figures, right, what it's saying to me is that Cairn's forward book, which

就是

is

政府未来几年已经下的订单，去年达到了9.46亿欧元。明白吗？他们去年总收入是8.95亿。这意味着他们的远期订单比全年收入还多。这表示哇哦——

the orders the state has already placed for the next couple of years, amounts to 946,000,000 last year. Right? Their total revenue last year was 895,000,000. That means their forward book is bigger than their total revenue. And what that means Wow.

他们建造的房屋可能有80%到90%都被爱尔兰政府买下了。这简直就是通过后门实现的房地产市场国有化，前所未见。

Is that it could be as much as 80 or 90% of everything they're built, of everything this company is building is being bought by the Irish government. Now that is the nationalization of the property market, if ever you've seen it by the backdoor.

首先得为凯恩和其他开发商鼓掌，这生意做得真漂亮。

Well, first of all, you you have to applaud Cairn and all the other develop developers. I mean, that's that's brilliant bit of business going there.

对他们来说是好事。但对国家就是灾难了。

It's brilliant for them. Yeah. But it's disastrous for the country.

是啊，但也不能怪他们。

Yeah. But it's not their fault at the same time.

我不是。当然不是。因为他们他们有人刚敲了他们的门说，听着。我会我会买下你所有的东西。就像，

I'm no. Of course not. Because they they somebody just knocked on their door and said, listen. I'll I'll buy all your stuff. Like,

是的。我们要那个，谢谢。是的。多谢。

it's Yeah. We'll take that, please. Yeah. Thanks.

是的。是的。是的。就像你在卖车，有人说，我们会买下整个车队。是的。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's like if you're selling cars and somebody says, we'll buy the entire fleet. Yeah.

而且不仅会

And not only will

我们买下

we buy

整个车队，我们会买下整个车队，但你不需要在几年内把车队交付给我们，但我们现在就付钱给你。

the entire fleet, we'll buy the entire fleet, but you don't have to deliver the fleet to us for a couple of years, but we'll pay you now.

我们还把养老金也投进去了。

And we stick the pension in it too.

所以你可以把它存入银行。这样你就可以去对你的股东说，我们得到了所有这些。所以，再次看看爱尔兰的那些房屋建筑商，他们每年的利润率是21%、22%。这些都是惊人的利润率。现在的情况是，爱尔兰的房屋建筑商赚取的是建筑商的利润，但他们实际上是在充当分包商的角色。

And we so you can bank it. So you can go to your shareholders and say, we've got all this. So, again, if you look at the those house builders in Ireland, they're making profit margins of 21, 22% per year. These are phenomenal profit margins. What is happening is the house builders in Ireland are making house builders profits, but they're acting as subcontractors.

所以分包商通常每年能获得大约5%的利润率。对吧？是的。因为你只是把东西建出来。你不承担任何风险。

So a subcontractor usually gets is a business about 5% margin every year. Right? Yeah. Because you just build the things out. You don't take any risk.

房屋建筑商有更高利润率的原因是他们承担了风险，你知道，开发可能会成功。他们可能需要卖掉东西。他们接近资本上涨，所有这些事情。我们现在看到的是，爱尔兰的房屋建筑商实际上正在被变成分包商，但他们仍然获得企业家、风险承担者的利润率，因为国家实际上并没有压低价格。它是在抬高价格。

The reason that house builders have higher margins is they take risks, you know, the development might work. They might need to sell things. They're close to capital rises, all these sort of things. What we're seeing now is Irish house builders are in effect being turned into subbies, subcontractors, but they're still getting entrepreneurs, risk takers profit margins because the state isn't actually negotiating down the prices. It's negotiating up the prices.

让我们先回顾一下这个问题。所有人都在向政府疾呼，这个国家最大的问题是供应不足。于是政府回应说，好吧，我们将不惜一切代价解决供应问题。公平地说，他们现在确实在这么做。

So if let let's just go back at this for a second. So everybody's been screaming at the the government that the biggest problem in this country is supply. So they said, okay. We're gonna try and fix supply at any cost. And so in fairness, that's that's what they're doing.

他们将这个计划纳入了政府议程等等。但你说的是他们实际执行的方式。这又回到了采购问题——由公务员负责的采购可能并非他们的专长。你是这个意思吗？

They put into the program of government and all the rest. Yeah. But what you're saying is how they're actually going about it. It comes back to this procurement problem as civil servants looking after procurement that it's not possibly not their expertise. Is that what you're saying?

关键不在于这是谁的钱。

It's not their money. That's the key.

对，不是他们的钱。没错。

Right? Their money. Yeah.

根本没有

There's no

切身利害关系。

skin in the game.

是的，没有切身利害关系。这就回到了我们说的'荷兰病'概念。资金正从美国源源涌入——去年企业税收就达290亿欧元，这还没算上那130亿苹果公司的钱，它们就像放在电视柜上的存钱罐，而我们都在假装这些钱不存在。

Yeah. There's no skin in the game. Yeah. So the money so this comes back to our Dutch disease idea. The money is gushing in from America €29,000,000,000 of corporate tax receipts last year without even factoring in the 13,000,000,000 of the Apple money, which is sitting in the jar over the telly, and we're all pretending it doesn't exist.

明白吗？现在他们为了掌控住房市场，为了能做出漂亮的公关声明，好在下次选举时宣称'我们正在建房'，已经完全放弃了成本控制，基本上是在让建筑商建造我认为是世界上最昂贵的公租房。

Right? Okay. What they're doing now is in order to get the housing market or get on top of the housing market so that they will have a good PR statement so that they can actually go to the next election, say we are building houses. Yeah. They are abandoning all cost controls completely, and they are basically enlisting the homebuilders into building what I would call the most expensive council houses in the world.

根据这些数据，我估计爱尔兰私营建筑商约80%——可能85%的产出都卖给了政府。这导致什么结果？首次购房者被完全挤出市场。他们只能先租房，然后选择移民——就像我们之前说的那个去了澳大利亚的小伙子。

And I from looking at these numbers, I would say that about 80% of the total output of private sector homebuilders in Ireland is being sold, maybe 85% to the state. Now, what does that do? That elbows out all the first time buyers. And what they do is they rent for a while and then they emigrate. Come back to our story of the guy in Australia.

没错。当你把这些点连起来看，就能明白正在发生之事的社会影响。美国资金洪流带来的社会后果，就是住房市场严重的混乱和失调，最终导致住房等候名单——也就是...

Yeah. Right? So what you're see what you can see when you start to join up the dots is the social implication of what is happening. And the social implication of the great spigot gushing out American money is the massive dislocation and dysfunction in the housing market, which is leading to a situation where the housing list, I. E.

排队等候这些政府公屋的人群变得极其庞大，这挤压了首次购房者的机会。是的。因此，通过房地产市场创造个人财富的过程——这在爱尔兰曾是代代相传的方式——完全停滞了，因为政府成为了买家，而政府作为买家永远比任何人都有更多资金，因为政府能以0%利率获得资金。而我们其他人则不得不以5%或6%的利率借款。

People queuing for these state houses, becomes enormous and that squeezes out the first time buyers. Yeah. So the process of creating personal wealth through the housing market, which has been something that has been intergenerational in Ireland, stops completely because the state is the buyer and the state as the buyer will always have more money than anybody because the state gets money at 0%. The rest of us have to borrow at five or 6%.

是的。

Yeah.

所以在休息之后，约翰，我们将通过自危机以来的三个不同时间段来审视房地产市场，以解释自2008年大金融危机以来发生了什么，谁受益了，谁又遭受了损失。

So after the break, John, we're gonna look at the housing market through three distinct time periods since the crash to explain what is going on and who has benefited and who has lost out since the great financial crash of two thousand and eight.

我们休息后再谈这个。迈克，我们多年来一直在讨论住房紧急问题，你知道，这主要是供应问题导致的。但我们是如何走到这一步的？你刚才提到了三个阶段，能否详细解释一下？

We talk about that after the break. So, Mike, we've been talking about the housing emergency issue for years now, and, you know, it's mainly as a result of a supply issue. But how did we get to this point? You know, you mentioned there about three phases. So can you explain this a bit more?

好的。约翰，我现在想做的是放大微观层面，即一家具体公司的资产负债表，来讲述这个行业正在发生的故事。但要讲述社会中发生的故事，我认为你必须看到这一点。爱尔兰房地产市场近期的历史中有三个截然不同的阶段，涉及到的买家和卖家。我的意思是，我在谈论自危机以来的三个不同阶段。

Yeah. John, what I wanna do now is we zoomed in on the micro, which is a balance sheet of a specific company, to tell the story of what's going on in the sector. But in order to tell the story of what's going on in the society, I think you have to look at there. There are three distinct phases in the recent history of the Irish housing market, the buyers, the sellers who got involved. What I mean, I'm talking about three distinct phases since the crash.

所以自2008年2月以来。对吧？第一阶段大约是从2008年到2015年2月。爱尔兰中央银行完全错过了繁荣与萧条的周期，在应该进行监管的时候他们却在睡大觉。之后他们变得强硬起来，决定在危机前我们没有监管，但现在我们要变得非常、非常强硬。

So since 02/2008. Right? First phase is probably from about 2008 to 02/2015. The central bank in Ireland, having completely missed the boom bust cycle, they were asleep at the wheel when they should have been regulating. They then got all macho and decided we weren't regulating before the crash, but now we're gonna get really, really macho.

于是他们收紧了各种贷款规定。

And they tightened up all sorts of lending regulations.

是的。是的。

Yeah. Yeah.

所以突然间，他们可能犯了一个错误——这并非第一次。他们认为爱尔兰危机的原因是向小人物提供了过多贷款。

So suddenly, they they probably, I think, made a mistake, not for the first time. They identified that the cause of the crash in Ireland was too much lending to little people.

明白了。

Okay.

实际上我认为爱尔兰经济崩溃的原因是对少数大人物过度放贷。对吧？那时资产负债表崩溃了，你知道，开发商破产是因为他们获得了高达120%的大额贷款。而当他们破产时，整个系统就垮了。

I actually think the cause of the crash in Ireland was too much massive lending to a certain amount of big people. Right? That was when the balance sheet bust, you know, when the developers went bust because the developers were getting, like, a 120% loans on massive amounts. Right? And when they went bust, they brought the whole thing down.

是啊。但因为是爱尔兰人后来...

Yeah. But because the Irish after afterwards.

但爱尔兰中央银行成立了NAMA（国家资产管理机构），却决定惩罚普通民众。他们收紧贷款规则，就在爱尔兰房价暴跌——这本是民众低价购房的良机——央行反而限制银行放贷，导致普通人无法把握2008年2月至2011年2月期间房价下跌60%的时机购入廉价房产。

But the because the Irish Central Bank sets up NAMA, but then decides to punish the little people. So what it did was it tightened up the rules. So just when Irish house prices collapsed, which was the opportunity for Irish people to buy houses cheaply, the central bank attacked the little people and said, no. We're gonna tighten up regulations so the banks couldn't lend. So that opportunity of the average punter to buy houses cheaply that had fallen by 60% from 02/2008, 02/1011, those years, the property was really cheap.

爱尔兰人没能抓住这个机会。对吧？这是第一阶段。第二阶段就是我所谓的秃鹫基金阶段。

Irish people couldn't avail of that. Right? So that's the first phase. Then the second phase is probably the kind of what I call the so called vulture fund phase. Right?

对，大约从2015年到2021年。由于央行收紧贷款标准导致爱尔兰人无法购房，那些新建住宅被谁买走了呢？主要是美国的大型投资基金。

Yes. That's from about 2015 to 2000 and let's say 2021. Right? And that was when because Irish people couldn't buy houses because the central bank had tightened up all sorts of lending criteria, who bought the houses that were being built? These large American largely American investment funds.

有些是秃鹫基金，有些不是。它们都是大资本。结果随着房价上涨，资本增值的收益没有留在爱尔兰，而是流向了美国。

Yeah. Some were vulture funds, some weren't. They were large funds. So what, of course, happened then is the equity upside as house prices started to rise didn't create wealth in Ireland. It created wealth in America.

没错，资金全都回流美国了。

Yeah. It was all sent back. Yes.

全回流了。2015到2020年间，爱尔兰潜在首购族只能租房——因为整栋楼盘都被买断用于出租，开发商直接打包出售。

It was all sent back. Yeah. And the potential first time buyers in Ireland from 2015 to 2020 were told, you can only rent. You can't buy because these blocks are being buy to let. You know, we sell the big blocks.

当然这对爱尔兰建筑商是好事，他们可以整批出售。但政策再次失误，租金直接流入美国公司口袋。首购族被迫成为'不情愿的租客'——他们本渴望购房置业积累资产，却...

And, of course, the developers, the Irish homebuilders, this was great for them Yeah. Because they could sell the block in one. So, again, a twist was missed, and the rent went directly to the American corporations. Irish first time buyers were turned into what I would call reluctant renters. They were forced to rent when they would much prefer to buy and get on the ladder and have equity and

但当时他们别无选择。爱尔兰政府手上有大量待处置房产必须脱手。

all that sort of stuff. But they didn't have much choice, though, at at the time, you know, I mean, the the Irish government, because they they had all this property on their books that they had to offload as it were.

他们不得不抛售，不得不清算，但整个过程中悖论在于——所有举措都会带来意外后果。对，对，没错。

They they had to they had to offload. They had to liquidate, but all the while against the idea is that everything has unintended consequences. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

是的。所以他们必须处理国家资产管理局（NAMA）的烂摊子，只能低价抛售资产。当时唯一有钱接盘的就是那些涌入的美国大型基金。

Yeah. So they had to they had to sort Nama out. They had to sell things cheaply. They had to sell things cheaply to the people who had money. The only people had money then was the large American funds that came in.

这些基金吞下所有资产后，当局在清理完NAMA的同时，却变本加厉地通过税收优惠讨好美国人，允许他们将利润汇回本国。于是爱尔兰成了国际房产基金的淘金乐园，而这直接扼杀了本土首次购房者的萌芽市场。

They buy all this, But then having tidied up the NAMA side of the thing, they doubled down with the Yanks and they began to favor the Yanks tax wise so that they could repatriate money. So Ireland became a bonanza for international property funds. And in so doing, it elbowed out the incipient or the embryonic first time buyers

确实。

Yeah.

在国内对吧？这是移民群体反复讲述的故事：'我离开是因为根本买不起破房子'。

In the country. Right? And this is a story you hear all the time from people who've immigrated. They said, look. I immigrated because I couldn't get a gaffe.

是啊，当然。

Yeah. Of course.

房租高得离谱，买房无望，我觉得自己永远无法在这里扎根，所以就滚蛋了。后来经过两届选举，民怨沸腾之下法规才终于修改。

Too high. Rents were too high, and I couldn't buy. And I didn't feel I have a permanent stake in the place, so I fucked off. Yeah. And then, of course, regulations were changed after two elections because people got really pissed off.

记得那场秃鹫基金引发的公愤吗？政府被迫调整政策：改革租赁收入征税制度，让美国玩家觉得爱尔兰房产游戏无利可图。结果他们在疫情前夕集体撤资。

And there was remember the big vulture fund sort of crisis that people were really angry. So regulations were changed. Tax treatment was changed for rental income, and it became unattractive for the yanks to continue playing this Irish property game. So they left the market just before the pandemic. So you would have thought, okay.

本以为市场终于能重新洗牌：危机遗产已清算，NAMA资产负债表修复完毕，人口持续增长。结果疫情又让市场更加扭曲。

Now is the chance for the market to rebalance. The legacy of the crash is over. The NAMA balance sheet has been cleaned up. There's a rising population. You get the pandemic that skews the market yet more.

按常理这个阶段本该回归传统模式——年轻人购房置业等等，但现实却...

But you would have imagined that this phase was when, you know, you go back to the the traditional idea of younger people buying and etcetera, etcetera.

是啊。是啊。

Yeah. Yeah.

但事实并非如此，这是国家介入的时机。当美国人退出市场后，国家现在进入了市场——由中央银行组织的货币政策作为国家机器的一部分，仍在收紧首次购房者的贷款条件，而与此同时，国家却在收购所有房产。实际上，国家现在成了首次购房者的竞争对手。结果呢？首次购房者再次被排挤出局。

But no, this is when the state came in. So the state has now come into the market where the Americans left the market, where the monetary policy, which is one part of the state organized by the central bank, is tightening things up still for first time buyers, while at the same time, the state is buying all the property. So in effect, the state is now the competition to the first time buyers. So what's happening? First time buyers are getting elbowed out again.

是的。这个现象之所以重要，是因为无论我们是否愿意承认，在爱尔兰传统中，人们总会在某个阶段购置自己的住宅。这就像一条我称之为'社会财富创造传送带'的机制。多年来都是如此，这也是人们的普遍期望。

Yeah. Now the reason this is important is because whether we like it or not, traditionally in Ireland, people bought their own gaffes at a certain stage. Yeah. And that was the sort of conveyor belt, what I would call the social conveyor belt to wealth creation. This is the way it has been for many years, and this is what people expect.

但现在的情况是，这条传送带正被国家亲手斩断。因为国家正从房产开发商手中收购所有房源。开发商当然欢欣鼓舞——但谁是这些开发商的股东呢？

But now what we have a situation is that conveyor belt is being broken by the state itself. Yeah. Because the state is buying all the stuff from the homebuilders. The homebuilders are really happy. But who are the shareholders of the homebuilders?

又是外国机构。对吧？如果你

Foreign institutions again. Right? If you

看看实际掌控者

look at who actually

是谁就明白了。资金正在回流到外国人手里。说真的，这剧情编都编不出来——资金像泻盐般快速流经爱尔兰。明白吗？

owns these things. So the money's going back to the foreigners. I mean, you couldn't make this up. It's the money is running through Ireland like a dose of salts. Right?

这些钱从哪来？来自美国跨国公司。又回到我们的'荷兰病'问题了。

Now where is the money coming from? It's from the American multinationals. It's back to our Dutch disease.

是啊。是啊。到底发生什么了？

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What what's happening?

香料包。就像是...

A spice bag. That's It's like it's

就像，就像你有个环，类似。但仔细想想，对吧？这就是正在发生的事情。是的。

like it's like it's like you got a hoop, like a. But think about it. Right? That's what's that's what's happening. Yeah.

所以当你把一切串联起来，约翰，我们看到的是又回到了荷兰病问题。资金涌入本应让普通工人生活更轻松，却适得其反。为什么？因为中间的公共管理机构缺乏能力去理解自己在做什么、为何这么做以及会产生什么连锁反应。

So when you put things together, what you see is we go back to our Dutch disease, John. Yeah. So the money's coming in, which is supposed to make life easier for the average worker, but it's making life harder. Why? Because the public administration in the middle, okay, doesn't have the wherewithal to understand what it's doing, why it's doing this, and what are the ramifications.

他们只关心现在统一党和共和党说要解决住房问题。怎么解决？建房子。怎么做？给建筑商下远期订单。

All it's interested in is now Fina Foll and Fina Gael said we need to fix the housing problem. What is that? We need to build houses. How do we do that? We forward order for the builders.

我们给他们免费午餐。所以不是让私营市场主导，我们正在做的是将住房存量国有化。

We give them a free lunch. So rather than allow the private market Yeah. To lead, what we're doing is we're nationalizing the housing stock.

但等等，如果政府最终拥有大量房产，他们确实有机会打折出售。这可能有点天真，但如果真这么做，政策看起来还行。约翰，真要那样就太棒了。

But hang on a second. If the government ends up owning a huge swathe of property, Well, then they do also have the opportunity to sell it, but to sell it at a discount. This might be a little bit naive, but if they do sell it at a discount, then, you know, then the policy looks kind of okay. John, that would be amazing if they did that.

是的，那会很棒，因为新加坡就这么做。新加坡政府以折扣价向首次购房者出售房屋，让他们积累资产，拥有社会权益而不彻底破坏市场。但我不确定爱尔兰有这种政治魄力。

Yeah. That would be amazing because that's what Singapore does. Singapore government sells homes to first time buyers at a discount, enabling them to build equity, enabling them to have a stake in society without totally destroying the market. Yeah. But I am not sure in Ireland that we have the political guts to do this.

为什么？因为很多人会说，为什么不直接免费分房？左翼人士会说，为什么不按旧式公房方式免费分配，象征性收点租金等等。

Now, why is that? Is because lots and lots of people will say, well, why not just give the houses for free? People on the left. Saying, why not just give them out for free in the old council house way with very, peppercorn rent, etcetera. Yeah.

一定程度需要这样做，必须要有公屋。但我担心现在过度偏向公屋，我们正在建造世界上最贵的公屋。由于成本高昂，意识形态将主导其处置方式。

Certain amount has to be done that. There has to be there have to be state houses. But my fear is that it's so biased now and jaundiced now towards state housing that what we're creating is the most expensive council houses in the world. And Yeah. Because they're expensive because they're expensive, there will be ideology driving how they are offloaded.

是啊。

Yeah.

另一个担忧是，若持续下去，二三十年后当这些租房者退休时怎么办？传统上在爱尔兰退休时，你拥有自己的房子，可能卖掉，换小房子来养老，这极大减轻了国家养老负担。但如今爱尔兰人口迅速老龄化...

The other fear is that if this keeps going on, what happens in twenty or thirty years time when all these renters are beginning to retire? Traditionally, you retire in Ireland, you own your own gaff, you probably sell it on Yeah. You trade down, and that's how you actually finance your retirement, which is a huge, huge burden away from the state in financing retirement. What happens? We know the Irish population is aging rapidly.

如果老龄化加速，但租户群体也快速老龄化会怎样？最终，这将导致未来出现严重的退休财富问题。

What happens if it ages rapidly, but the renters who age rapidly? Ultimately, then there's gonna be a massive retirement wealth problem down the

路上。而且

road. And

当然，这种情况总是如此——当你挤压首次购房者时，实际上是在让已有房产的人更加富有。

also, of course, what it always does is if you squeeze the first time buyers, what you're doing is you're enriching the people who already have homes.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。你是在惩罚那些没有房产的首次购房者。他们会怎么做？他们会移民。为什么要移民？

Yeah. You're punishing the people who don't have homes, which are the first time buyers. And what do they do? They emigrate. And why do they emigrate?

因为他们认为，你看，如果有住房名单，移民就会挤上这个名单。他们会优先得到房子。那些靠社会福利生活的人也会先分到房子。最终你会发现，如果将资产国有化，尤其是像住房这样的资产，长远来看会导致各种社会问题，因为我们的社会不像德国那样——那里人们习惯长期租房——我们的社会结构和民众心理都不适应这种模式。

Because they think, well, look, if there's a housing list, you know, immigrants are gonna get on the housing list. They're gonna get the houses first. You know, people who are on social welfare, they're gonna get their houses first. And ultimately, what you find is that if you nationalize an asset, particularly something like housing, it leads, I think, long term to all sorts of societal problems because the society, unlike, for example, Germany, where people rent all the time, isn't set up for that. It's not in the mentality.

是啊。确实。

Yeah. Yeah.

没错。而且即使在经济崩溃后，这种心态依然没变。知道吗？最让我震惊的是我们又回到了'荷兰病'。就像上周说的，'荷兰病'会以多种形式显现。

Yeah. And the mentality, even after the crash, hasn't changed. You know? So what is fascinating for me is that we're back to Dutch disease. As we said last week, Dutch disease manifests itself in a variety of ways.

这是个非常典型的例子——国家有钱却不做长远规划，不制定交通战略、住房战略、人口战略、移民战略和商业投资战略，他们只是在用政治思维解决眼前问题：不计代价地立即建房。显然是被新芬党吓破了胆，生怕担责。

This is a really specific example because the state has the money rather than planning for the future, rather than planning a transport strategy, a housing strategy, a population strategy, an immigration strategy, a commercial investment strategy, what they're doing is they're trying to fix the very short term issue. Build houses now no matter how you do that. They're obviously being driven by political concerns. They're shit scared of Sinn Fein Yep. Of owning this.

爱尔兰永远在重复短期主义、短期主义、短期主义。没人考虑二十年后，没人着眼长远。我们不是彻底解决问题，而是贴几张创可贴，然后祈祷问题自动消失。

And all we get in Ireland again is always short termism, short termism, short termism. Nobody thinks about twenty years time. Nobody thinks about the long term. And rather than solve the problem permanently, we put a few little sticking plasters over it, and we hope that it goes away.

但是，麦克拉，也许他们确实在尝试做些事情，比如设立新的住房机构并安排新人上任，而他才刚来没几天。所以，或许我们应该多给点时间观察。

But, Macra, maybe they are actually trying to do something, you know, setting up the the new housing agency and putting a new guy in there, and he's only there like a wet week. So, you know, maybe we should give this a bit more time.

不，不。我们当然应该多给些时间，但我想说的是人们想知道——听众收听这个播客的原因就是他们想了解当前状况及其成因。

No. No. We definitely should give it a bit more time, but I'm just saying people want to know what I mean, reason people listen to the podcast is they wanna get a sense of what's happening right now and why it's happening.

对。对。没错。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

为什么房产中介无所作为？这是其一。为什么收入可观的首套房买家被市场拒之门外？为什么聪明的爱尔兰护士、教师、医生大规模移民海外？这些就是原因所在。

Why are the estate agents twiddling their thumbs, Number one. Yeah. Why are first time buyers who got good incomes being priced out? Why are clever Irish nurses, teachers, doctors emigrating in huge numbers? This is the why.

还有，既然我们有这么多来自美国的资金，为什么民众生活似乎没有改善？

And then why if we have all this money coming from America, why does it not seem to be making people's lives better?

嗯，这确实千真万确。

Well, that's that's absolutely true.

所以我们的工作本质上是像侦探一样——抽丝剥茧。我们研读别人不看的资产负债表，将数据与现实联系起来。

And so the job our job is to basically it's like you're like a detective. You're a sleuth. You're actually tying on. You're reading balance sheets that other people don't read. You're tying that connection to this.

当然，没人能挥动魔杖解决所有问题。但如果没有测量和分析，得到的只会是浮夸的空谈。而现状正是如此。我们的职责是保持务实，约翰，或许略显枯燥，但更精确地审视数据，然后追问：这些数字揭示了什么？

And and it's not that people can wave a magic wand and fix everything. But I think without measurement, without analysis, all you get is pure puffery and guff. Yeah. And that's what we're getting. And our job is to be a little bit pragmatic, John, a little bit dull, a little bit more precise and look at the numbers and then say, what are the numbers telling me?

天啊，希望我们不至于太无聊。

Jeez, I hope we're not dull.

完全不会。正如我之前所说，统计数据是文明社会的标志。下周再聊，约翰。

Not at all. Not at all. As I said before, statistics are the sign of a civilized society, John. Talk to you next week.