比特币引领下一波行情……78K还是90K？

比特币下一步会怎么走？

What is Bitcoin's next move?

这就是今天要讨论的问题。

That's the question today.

欢迎收听《The Report》。

Welcome to The Report.

今天是2026年10月7日。

It is 10/07/2026.

我觉得在开始这期节目之前，我们真的需要一起停下来喘口气，因为过去三十天，甚至过去九十天，发生了太多事情。

I feel like as we get into this episode, we just need to all collectively pause and catch a breath because a whole lot has happened in the last thirty days, even the last ninety days.

就在我和迈克最近做的三期节目里，我们确认了牛市初期。

Just in the last three episodes that Mike and I did, we confirmed the early bull market.

第五轮加密货币牛市的第一阶段，这可是件大事。

The first segment of the fifth crypto bull market, that's a big deal.

上周，我和迈克一起看了新一轮牛市的目标价位。

Last week, Mike and I took a look at new bull market price targets.

我们还重新审视了宏观面，这周可能显示出一些警示信号。

We also took a second look at macro that was showing maybe some yellow signals on the week.

今天我们要退一步，做一件迈克你觉得有必要做的事，那就是梳理一下。

Today we're going to take a step back and do something that Mike you felt the need to do which is process.

退一步，梳理过去九十天发生的事情，为接下来要发生的事情做好准备。

Just take a step back and process what has happened over the last ninety days in order to prepare for what is next, for what is to come.

我觉得这让我们带着一个问题进入今天的报告：比特币下一步会怎么走？

And I think that leaves us with the question going into today's report, what is Bitcoin's next move going to be?

正如迈克今天在报告里写的，现在所有人的目光都集中在比特币上。

As Mike wrote in the report today, all eyes on Bitcoin right now.

更广泛地说，自今年夏天以来，我们一直在做什么？

And more broadly, what are we doing since this summer?

我们是在宏观环境中攀登忧虑之墙，还是还有更多路要走？

Are we climbing that wall of worry in macro environment, or do we still have some more to go?

当然，各位，你们得坚持到最后，因为我们会深入一些具体细节。

Of course, guys, you gotta stick around to the end because we're going to get into some specifics.

迈克是在预测十月吗？

Is Mike predicting October?

是的。

Yes.

我说了。

I said it.

十月？

October?

比特币的关键价位有哪些，无论是看跌方面？

What are the key price levels both on the bearish side of Bitcoin?

如果看跌，最低能跌到多少？

If we go bearish, how low could we go?

在看涨方面，什么价格和关键指标可能引发比特币突破10万？

And on the bullish side, what's the price and key indicator that could kick off a run to over a 100 k Bitcoin?

我们会在最后回答这个问题。

We'll answer that toward the end.

而且我希望我们也有时间聊聊迈克上周五发布的报告，那份报告回答了我心里一直有的一个问题，就是在牛市初期，什么时候该持有资产，什么时候该在上涨时获利了结。

And I'm hopeful we also have some time to talk a bit about Mike's report that he put up last Friday which answers a question that's in the back of my mind in this early bull market which is when do you hold an asset versus when you take gains on a pump.

好的。

Okay.

迈克在评估自己当前的投资组合时，问了自己七个问题。

Mike's got seven questions he asked himself when evaluating his current portfolio.

我觉得这在牛市期间非常适用。

I think this is very applicable during the bull.

这些都准备好了。

All that is set up.

我想先问一个问题，迈克，也许先稍微铺垫一下。

I wanna start with a question and maybe, Mike, just to frame this out a little bit.

差不多一年前，几乎就是今天，比特币达到了牛市高点12.6万。

So it was a year ago now, almost to the day that Bitcoin hit a bull market high of 126 k.

那比上一个熊市的低点涨了大约八倍。

That was up about eight x from the lows set by the previous bear market.

去年这个时候，所有人都在喊十月。

Everyone at that time last year was calling for an October.

两天后，你实际上给TDR Pro会员发了一条警报，说在那个环境下，你从风险偏好转向了风险规避。

Two days later, you actually sent an alert to TDR Pro members saying that in that environment, you flipped from risk on to risk off.

那是在2025年10月10日比特币崩盘前一两天，比特币在短短几个小时内就跌了将近15%。

This was a day or two before the ten ten, twenty twenty five Bitcoin crash where Bitcoin lost almost 15% in just a matter of hours.

有200亿美元被清算。

There was 20,000,000,000 liquidated.

这是加密货币历史上最大的一次清算事件。

This was the largest liquidation event in crypto history.

结果这打破了牛市的脊梁。

It turned out that broke the back of the bull market.

现在又是十月了。

It's October again.

一年后，你认为这个周期已经基本走完了，我们现在处于牛市初期，你正在退一步，暂停一下，回顾过去九十天发生的事情。

A year later, you believe the cycle has kind of played out that we are now in the early bull market and you're taking a step back to pause and process and look at the last ninety days to what's happened.

为什么要这么做？

Why do that?

为什么要拉远视角？

Why zoom out at all?

拉远视角能让你看到哪些每周比特币价格或市场指标看不到的东西？

What does zooming out tell you that the week to week Bitcoin price or market indicators don't?

作为投资者，在你的日志中暂停一下、梳理一下，这有什么价值？

What's the value in just as an investor in your journal kind of pausing and processing?

我觉得这真的能帮我调整心态。

It really just helps me level set, I think.

你知道，现在发生的事情太多了。

You know, there's so much going on.

我觉得加密货币是一种非常线上的体验。

I think crypto is such a, you know, online experience.

你总是在社交媒体上。

You know, you're on social media.

你在看播客。

You're watching podcasts.

你在做各种研究。

You're doing whatever research you're doing.

你知道，很多时候我都埋头于细节，对吧，专注于我们做的基础研究和不断查看的数据。

You know, I kind of have my head in the weeds a lot of the times, right, with a lot of the fundamental research that we're doing, the data that we're constantly looking at.

所以我总是想两者兼顾。

And so I always wanna be, like, doing both.

就是深入细节，然后拉远视角，观察全局。

So going down into the weeds and then kinda zooming out and sort of observing things.

我觉得把这两者结合起来，正是帮助我在市场波动中导航的关键。

And I think the the combination of doing both of those things is is kinda what kinda helps me navigate these markets through volatility.

你知道，我觉得有这样一个投资者日志，真的能帮我看清市场，观察市场，而不是成为市场。

You know, I think having, like, almost this kind of investor journal really helps me just see the market, observe the market, don't become the market.

不要被市场牵着走，而是能够观察它、看清它。

Don't get caught up in the market, but be able to see, observe it.

这是我们研究中经常回到的话题，也是我们每周三发布的报告里反复提到的内容。

And it's something that we we constantly come back to in our research and and also in these these Wednesday reports that we publish.

好，那今天我们就来聊聊这个。

Well, that's what we're gonna do today.

在咱们放大视角回顾过去九十天之前，先来设定一下背景。

And let's just set the context before we kind of zoom out and look at the last ninety days.

目前投资组合完全是风险偏好模式，你几乎已经部署了95%的资金。

So the portfolio right now is fully risk on, so you are almost 95% deployed.

距离6月30日的周期低点已经快一百天了，希望那就是比特币58,000美元的周期底部。

We are almost a hundred days removed from the June 30 cycle low, hopefully the cycle low of 58 k Bitcoin.

投资组合整体上涨了124%。

The portfolio is up a 124% in total.

非比特币头寸几乎涨了三倍。

Non Bitcoin positions up almost three x.

在过去的四十八小时左右，比特币出现了一些回调。

Now over the last forty eight hours or so, Bitcoin has had a bit of a pullback.

所以今天来看节目的人可能会想，哇。

So some people coming into today's episode are like, woah.

迈克，发生什么事了？

What's happening, Mike?

我们录制的时候比特币大概在84000美元左右，我不确定24小时内是不是跌了3%到4%。

We're at 84 k or so at the time of recording, and I don't know if that's down three or 4% just on the twenty four hour.

其实这周整体是持平的。

It's actually flat on the week.

也许我们简单说一下这个。

Maybe let's just address that quickly.

你觉得现在跌3%到4%有什么原因吗？

Is there any reason you can see why we'd be down three to 4% right now?

这是……

Is this...

我的意思是，今天早上市场似乎有点紧张，我想知道为什么。

I mean, it seems like the market has the jitters this morning and I'm wondering why.

看起来是这样。

Seems like it.

昨晚好像有点快速抛售，把大家吓到了。

There was a little bit of a, like, a quick sell off, I think, last night that spooked people a little bit.

别……

Don't...

你知道，我对这种短期波动一直不太有把握。

You know, I I always have kind of low conviction on really short term moves like this.

我觉得现在的情况是，订单簿上有点拉锯战，有人想做多，有人觉得可能需要回调，重新测试五十周均线，大概在七万八左右。

I think what's happening is there's a little bit of a battle playing out in the order books, you know, people that want to be long the asset, people that think, you know, maybe we need to come down and revisit the fifty week moving average, which is right around 78 k.

所以我觉得有些交易员在试图压低价格，另一些则在试图推高。

And so I think you have, like, traders trying to push price down in some cases, and then you have other traders trying to push it up.

所以你会看到这种上下的小影线。

So you get these sort of, like, little wicks up and down.

但最终，我觉得还是要看市场上的其他催化剂，或者现货买家进场，给比特币提供支撑。

But, ultimately, I think it's gonna come down to, you know, some other catalysts in the marketplace or spot buyers coming in and and putting that support in there for bit...

比特币才能走出下一步。

Bitcoin to make that that next move.

我……

I...

如果价格真的回落，重新测试五十周均线，跌破八万，到七万八九左右，我也不会感到意外。

It wouldn't surprise me if we did come down and revisit fifty week moving average, you know, dip below 80 k, upper seventies or so.

我觉得那样会释放一些压力。

And I think that would sort of pull some of the air.

你知道，我们一直有点……

You know, we've kind of had...

我们可以聊聊最近发生的情况，但市场上确实有很多投机行为，未平仓合约也很多，尤其是一些优质山寨币，还有链上领域。

We can talk about these sort of what's what's been playing out here, but we've had sort of, like, a lot of speculation in the market, a lot of open interest, especially on some of these quality altcoins also with kind of the on chain space.

很多这些都在消退。

A lot of that is coming off.

而且我觉得，如果比特币真的回踩五十周均线，整个生态系统可能会经历一次洗盘，这对接下来的走势可能反而是健康的。

And I think if Bitcoin does make that move to revisit the fifty week, we we could have sort of that cleansing throughout the ecosystem that then would probably be healthy for kind of the next the next move here.

好吧，那这期节目剩下的时间，我们就不管那些日常波动了。对。

Well, maybe let's ignore the daily gyrations then for the rest of this episode Yeah.

我们把视角拉远一点，跟我们说说你在市场上看到了什么。

And let's zoom out a little bit and and give us what you're seeing in the market.

先快速回顾一下过去大概九十天的情况。

So a quick recap of the last ninety days or so.

回顾从六月到现在这九十天，你觉得加密货币市场发生了哪些关键事件或者重要的事情？

When you think to the last ninety days from June until about now, what are the key events that have happened or the key things that have happened in crypto markets?

我觉得，就算回到我们节目大概九十天前，或者说九十七天前，也就是六月底的时候，那时候我们还不确定底部已经出现了。

I think, you know, even if we go back, you know, on this show, you know, ninety ninety days or so ago or ninety seven days back to the end of June, at that time, we were not, you know, ready for the low to be in.

我们当时觉得还有可能进一步下跌，进入更深的……

We were thinking that there was still a chance we would go into deeper...

深度价值区间。

Deep value territory.

结果回头看，确实越来越像是那可能就是周期底部了。

And so as it turns out turns out, when you look back, you know, it does increasingly look like that was probably the cycle low.

我们每周都会讨论这些，我们关注的各种指标。

We we talk about this on a weekly basis, all of the kind of indicators that we're looking at.

很多指标都已经对上了。

A lot of that has lined up.

我们确实有那个催化剂，把我们推离了低点，然后我们就在这个80以上的高位区间待了大概一个月。

We did have that catalyst that sort of pushed us off those lows, and we've been in this sort of elevated zone here above 80 for roughly a month or so.

而且，对我来说，这……

And, yeah, for for me, it...

其实就是看到流动性回到市场，也看到了技术面的确认。

It's really kind of just seeing liquidity come back into the market, seeing the technical confirmation as well.

而且，实际发生的情况是，我们触底了，然后第二天，Robinhood链就上线了。

And, really, what's played out is we had that bottom, and then up the next day, Robinhood chain, you know, launched.

这真的可以说是开启了牛市。

And that kinda kicked off really, I would say, almost like the bull market.

我的意思是，我们还在等比特币的技术确认，那会晚一些，但链上领域在7月份就已经率先启动了。

I mean, we're waiting for the technical confirmation on Bitcoin, which comes later, but we had kind of the on chain space really kick things off in July.

那之后，大概在九月份，就引发了一波小型的山寨币行情，现在我们正在消化这个走势。

That then kinda led to a sort of mini alt season, I would say, in the September period, and and now we're processing that.

现在就是时候决定，比特币是会回来重新测试五万周线，还是就在八万五这个区间震荡整理。

And it's time just to decide if Bitcoin's gonna come back and revisit the fifty week, or we're just gonna consolidate kind of in this mid eighties zone here.

而且可能还会有其他催化剂出现，然后推动我们，你知道，往上冲到九万这个区间。

And potentially there's some other catalyst that comes in that then pushes us, you know, up into that 90 k zone.

如果我们真的到了那个水平，我觉得那会变得很有意思，因为那时候，媒体关注度、注意力和叙事可能都会转向比特币重新冲击十万，这可能会给这个领域带来更多关注。

If we do get to that level, I think that gets interesting because then you have, you know, probably the media attention and the attention and narrative starts to shift towards Bitcoin reclaiming a 100 k or so, and that probably brings in more attention to the space.

所以，当我们看所有数据和其他东西的时候，我会说，我大概有九成的把握，至少是最低限度。

So, you know, when we look at all the data and stuff, I would say, you know, I'm probably, like, at 90% at the at the lowest in.

当我们看资金流向的时候。

When we look at the flows.

我们看所有我们关注的数据、周期关键指标、市场结构，现在我们正在消化，你知道，下一步会怎么走。

We look at all the data that we look at, the cycle KPIs, the market structure, and now we're kind of processing, you know, what the next move is gonna be here.

对于在家关注的人来说，我得说，这比上周的85%有所上升，我想，当你...

For those keeping track at home, I should say that's that's up from 85% last week, I think, when you...

当你问这个问题的时候。

When you're asking that question.

50%了。

50 up.

所以从75%到85%，现在到了90%。

So 75 to 85 to now 90%.

好的。

Okay.

所以今天报告的主题是“聚焦比特币”。

So the theme of today's report is all eyes on Bitcoin.

我想暂停一下，问一句，为什么非得这样？

I wanna pause and ask for a second, like, why does that have to be the case?

为什么聚焦比特币？

Why all eyes on Bitcoin?

我知道之前的周期里也是这样。

I know that has been the case in previous cycles.

你只是习惯性地这么想，还是因为比特币的规模？

Are you just kind of anchoring to that, or is it about the size of Bitcoin?

你知道，比特币在加密货币中的市场占有率大约是60%。

You know, Bitcoin market dominance is about 60% of crypto.

对。

Yep.

所以从定义上讲，它几乎必须率先行动。

So definitionally, it almost has to make a first move.

你确定比特币必须率先行动吗？

Are you sure Bitcoin has to make the first move?

为什么它……

Why does it...

为什么比特币必须在这里吸引所有注意力？

Why does Bitcoin have to attract all the attention here?

这是个好问题。

It's a it's a good question.

你知道，比特币……

You know, Bitcoin...

我认为比特币是整个生态系统的核心资产。

I consider Bitcoin the alpha asset, you know, of the entire ecosystem.

我把它和加密货币里的其他东西区分开来。

I sort of separate it from, you know, everything else in crypto.

有趣的是，比特币的主导地位一直保持在高位，基本没怎么变。

And what's interesting is Bitcoin dominance has been pretty much flat, like, kind of at an elevated level.

也就是说，比特币的市值占整个加密货币市值的57%到58%。

So 57, 58% in terms of Bitcoin's market cap of the entire crypto market cap.

所以它一直在这个区间，比通常看到的要高一些。

So it's been in that zone, which is somewhat elevated from what you would typically see.

所以如果要说什么的话，我觉得你会认为，随着时间的推移，更多的资金，比如这些……

So if anything, I think you would argue that more capital over time, like these...

所以，随着时间推移，进入加密货币领域的边际资金，我们看到越来越多流向了比特币，而不是减少。

So this sort of, like, marginal dollar that's coming into the crypto space over time, we're seeing more of that go to Bitcoin, not not less.

所以我觉得继续把比特币看作整个加密市场的风向标资产是合理的，它通常会带动整个加密市场，尤其是在牛市初期和进入牛市的时候，比特币会率先发力。

So I think it's sort of fair to continue to look to Bitcoin as the bellwether asset, the thing that's gonna move the the rest of the crypto space and typically coming into, you know, early bull and going into a bull market, Bitcoin leads.

比特币先动，然后这才会改变流动性状况，把投机情绪重新带回来。

Bitcoin makes the move first, and then that's what sort of changes liquidity conditions, brings speculation back in.

但七月份的时候可不是这样。

So, you know, that was not the case back in July.

当时真正启动的是链上领域。

It was really the on chain space that that kinda kick kick things off.

我仍然认为比特币会是带领我们进入更多投机阶段的关键资产，也是我在牛市行情中真正期待看到的那种表现。

I still think Bitcoin is is the asset that's gonna lead us into, you know, the the the kind of, like, more speculation and really kind of what what I would expect to see in a bull market conditions.

现在你观察比特币背后的市场结构和不同的持有群体，你在今天的报告里指出，尽管现在是牛市初期，你也觉得有足够的指标支持这个判断，但背后仍然有一些事情在发生，那就是基于时间的投降这个概念。

Now when you look at the market structure behind Bitcoin and the different cohorts, you you point out during today's report that even though it is the early bull and you feel like you have sufficient indicators for that, there's still something happening in the background, and that's this idea of time based capitulation.

我是说，九十天前我们就在讨论基于时间的投降。

I mean, ninety days ago, we were talking about time based capitulation as well.

你现在还在讨论这个。

You're still talking about it now.

你觉得这还在幕后发生。

You think this is still happening in the background.

你能描述一下币种轮动具体是怎么回事吗？

Can you describe what exactly is happening with the coin rotation?

谁在哪个时间段投降？

Who is capitulating over what time period?

你预计未来九十天这种时间驱动的投降会怎么发展？

How do you expect the time based capitulation to kind of play out during the next ninety days?

其实还是老样子。

Really more of the same.

看市场结构数据，币种继续在七万七到九万二这个区间内整合，目前这个区间占了供应量的16.3%。

As I look at the market structure data, coins continue to consolidate into this 77 to 92 k zone, which has 16.3% of the supply right now.

过去九十天左右的情况是，币种从五万六到六万六这个群体（八月中旬成为最大的群体）向上轮动。

Really, what's played out over the last ninety days or so is we're seeing coins rotate up from the the the cohort, the 56 to 66 cohort that became the largest in mid August.

现在我们看到币种轮动到七万七到九万二这个区间。

We're seeing coins rotate up now into the 77 to 92 k band.

同时，你刚才提到的时间性投降，这个还在继续。

At the same time, what you mentioned there, time based capitulation, this is still playing out.

所以……

So the...

我们所说的那些顶级买家群体，也就是在2025年市场高峰期进入市场的人，那些在92,000美元以上买入的群体，在过去三十天甚至过去九十天左右，一直在比特币价格上涨的过程中持续卖出。

What we call the, like, top buyer cohorts, the people that came into the market at the peak of the market back in 2025, those cohorts above 92 k have continued to sell into sort of rising Bitcoin price action over the last thirty days all the way back the last ninety days or so.

这个趋势是一致的。

Is consistent.

你能深入分析一下他们的心理吗？

Can you, like, get into their psychology?

这些人应该是在2025年某个时候买入的。

So this would be people that bought probably sometime in 2025.

因为他们的成本价在92,000美元以上。

Because they'd be over 92 k.

对。

Correct.

是的。

Yep.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

所以他们去年买的，然后……

So they they bought last year and...

或者……

Or...

他们可能买的时候价格高达，你知道的，12万。对吧。

And they may have purchased as as high as, you know, a 120 k Right.

比特币左右。

Bitcoin or so.

他们看着比特币价格回升，然后就说，好吧。

And they're looking at this price recovery in Bitcoin, and they're just saying, okay.

终于可以抛掉这些包袱，去买点AI股票之类的了。

Finally, I can unload these bags and go buy some AI stock or something like that.

而且我愿意承担亏损。

And I'm willing to take a loss.

亏50%太难接受了，但亏20%或30%我可以接受。

It was too hard to stomach a 50% loss, but, okay, I'll take a 20% loss or a 30% loss.

这就是背后的心理吗？

Is that the psychology at play here?

这是不是也压制了我们目前冲上九万的能力？

And and does that just suppress our ability to kind of rise into the nineties right now?

我觉得这正是目前的情况。

I think I think that's exactly what's going on.

每个牛市周期都会有一批新的投资者进入市场，而这些往往是……

So you tend to get a new sort of investor, a new new entrants into the market in each bull cycle, and those tend to be...

你知道，就是那种……

You know, that's a...

最不成熟的投资者可能是在市场顶部进来的，他们买的原因可能只是价格在涨，而不是真正的基本面。

The least sophisticated investor probably coming in is coming in at at the top of the market and probably didn't have a real fundamental reason why they're buying it other than the price was going up.

你买进了这个资产。

You get into the asset.

然后它开始往下跌。

It starts to go down on you.

我觉得很多人，你知道，从数据里能看到，他们熬过了这轮熊市，可能没有形成长期的投资逻辑，只是一直因为亏损而焦虑，可能连我们的每周节目都没怎么看。

I think a lot a lot of people, you know, we're seeing in the data, you know, kind of have held through this bear market, maybe not developing a longer term thesis, just kinda just feeling anxious about being down the whole time, probably not watching our our weekly episodes as well.

确实没看。

Definitely not.

确实没看。

Definitely not.

然后呢……

And so...

所以，价格回升了。

So then, you know, price comes up.

你对自己的持仓感觉好了一些。

You feel a little bit better about your position.

也许你没有跌得那么惨……

Maybe you're not as down as...

没有跌那么多，然后你就退出了。

Not down as much, and and you're exiting that.

这大概就是我们在数据中看到的情况。

And that's kinda what we're seeing show up in the data.

这和我们在同一时期看到的情况也是一致的。

It's consistent with what we saw also, you know, during this same period.

如果我们回到2023年初，成本基础群体不同，但情况类似，就是币从较低成本基础区域被推高到当时大约24000到30000美元的水平。

If we go back to, like, early twenty twenty three, the the cost basis cohorts were different, but it was kind of the same thing where you had coins that were being pushed up from the lower cost basis zones into what at that time was, like, 24 to 30 k or so.

所以那些群体增长迅速，就像我们现在看到的约70770到92000美元的情况，但30000美元以上的成本基础群体实际上在继续卖出。

And so those cohorts were growing rapidly similar to what we're seeing with around $70.77 to 92 k, but the cost basis cohorts above 30 k were actually continuing to sell into that.

那些人可能是在2021年周期顶部进入的。

That would have been the people that came in sort of at the top of the, you know, 2021 cycle.

所以这全都是投资者心理，以及加密货币投资者初次进入这些市场时的某种旅程，我觉得。

So it's it's all kind of investor psychology and, like, the sort of journey of a crypto investor, I think, when they first come in to these markets.

你今天在报告里看了短期持有者的供应数据，对吧。

You were looking at some of the short term holder supply data in today's report Yeah.

而且你还说了这个。

Too, and you said this.

现在短期持有者亏损持有的供应量几乎为零。

The supply held and loss by short term holders is nearly zero right now.

你说这可能意味着回调即将来临。

You said that suggests a correction could be on the horizon.

所以，我

So I

听到“回调”这个词。

hear the words a correction.

你看到了一些链上数据，表明可能会出现回调。

You're seeing some on on chain data that signifies there could be a correction.

帮我们把这些线索串联起来吧。

Connect some dots for us.

你在短期持有者数据里看到了什么，让你觉得可能会回调，或者说，偏向看跌的那一面？

What are you seeing here in the short term holder data that points towards correction or or the, you know, the bearish side of the argument?

这个数据我会特别关注，尤其是在我们经历这种转折点的时候。

This is something, you know, I will look at and come back especially when we've had these kind of, like, inflection periods.

如果我们回到六月，这九十天左右基本上是一个只涨不跌的行情。

So if we go back to June, we've been in really kind of an up only trend here for roughly ninety days.

基本上所有进来的新资金，这些新的短期持有者，他们大部分都是盈利的。

And, basically, all of the new money that has come in, these new shorter term holders, they are mostly all in profit.

当你看到这种情况出现时，通常不会持续太久。

And when you see that flashing, like, that typically doesn't last forever.

而且，这种情况在上一个周期早期也发生过，然后我们确实经历了一次回调，跌到了五十周均线附近，短暂恐慌了一下，然后市场重新调整了。

And so, you know, this also happened, you know, early in the last cycle, and then we did have that moment where it came down and touched the the the fifty week moving average again, brief scare, and it kinda resets things.

所以这就是...

So that's...

这确实让我有些谨慎，因为基本上过去九十天进来的新资金，现在大部分都是盈利的。

This definitely gives me some pause that, like, basically, all the new money that's come in over the last ninety days or so, most of that is in profit right now.

所以如果我们看到价格下跌，我预计会有人想趁机兑现一些利润。

So if we see, you know, prices come down, I would expect some people looking to to take some of those profits.

但你看那张图表，进入牛市后，通常会有更持续的阶段，你会看到那条线不断增长，因为新资金不断涌入……

But when you look at that that chart there, we do end up, you know, typically in more of a sustained period as you get into a bull market where you're just seeing that line grow more because new money is coming in that...

当他们第一次买入时，那些就是短期持有者。

When those first purchases are made, those are, you know, short term holders.

然后随着时间的推移，很多短期持有者如果不动用钱包里的资产，往往会变成长期持有者。

And then over time, a lot of these short term holders often, you know, become longer term holders if they don't, you know, move their assets from from those wallets.

那些就会出现在长期持有者数据里，我们也在追踪这个。

Those show up in longer term holders, and and we're tracking that as well.

在长期持有者方面，我们最近在报告和节目中提到，长期持有者实际上……

On the longer term holder side, we've recently been noting in the reports and and on the show that the longer term holders are actually...

供应量其实还在下降，这和我们之前提到的是一致的，就是2025年的顶级买家群体还在卖出。

The supply is actually falling off still, which, again, I think that's just consistent with what we mentioned earlier that that sort of top buyer cohorts from 2025 are still selling.

他们在过去一年里逐渐进入了长期持有者的行列。

They aged into the longer term holder cohort over the last year.

所以我们看到有一部分资金在撤出，同时也有一些新资金流入。

So we're seeing some of that come off and then some newer money come in.

但是，是的，我们确实在关注一个事实，那就是大多数人都处于盈利状态，而这种状态通常不会一直持续下去。

But, yeah, definitely paying attention to the fact that, you know, most of these people are in profit, and that typically doesn't last forever.

那么，当我们把这些指标和你提到的那些比较低迷的成交量数据结合起来看的时候，你知道，ETF 已经……

So when we blend some of these indicators with some of the more anemic volume data that you've you've pointed to, you know, ETFs have...

它们还在增长，但是已经放缓了……

They're still growing, but they've they've slow...

放缓了。

Slowed down.

然后这个信号，我觉得很重要，也是报告里比较新的一个，就是稳定币的供应量。

And then this signal, which I think is important, and newish in the report, which is stablecoin supply.

你说过，我们还没有看到四大稳定币发行商的供应量出现拐点，这是一个真正风险偏好回暖的关键指标。

So you said this, we've yet to see an inflection in stablecoin supply amongst the four largest issuers, the big stablecoin issuers, a key indicator for truly risk on conditions.

你可以在这张图表里看到，这是稳定币的总供应量，基本上是持平的。

You could see in the chart here, this is aggregate Stablecoin supply, and it's kind of flat.

从2025年初开始就一直持平。

It's been flat since the beginning of twenty twenty five.

有意思的是，这算是后天才时代的阶段。

And what's interesting about this is this is sort of in a post genius era.

所以你会觉得，现在美国那边有稳定币立法的顺风，应该会增长，但还没有。

So you'd expect now that we have the tailwinds of Stablecoin legislation in The US on our side, you'd expect that to grow, but it's not yet.

你也说过，这会是真正风险偏好回归的关键指标。

And you said that that would be a key indicator for truly risk on conditions.

所以当我看到这些，再结合一些混杂的信号，如果我们还处在牛市早期阶段，这是不是我们预期会看到的？

So when I see these things and blend it with some of the mixed signs and if we are under the lens that this is the early bull period still, is this what we'd expect to see?

这是不是就是对这个现象的解释？

Is this the interpretation of this?

这只是牛市早期比较无聊的阶段，弹簧得先压一压，所以稳定币供应还是平的。

This is just the boring part of the early bull market where, you know, that spring has to coil up a little bit and so stablecoin supply is still flat.

这个弹簧正在蓄力。

This spring is coiling.

成交量还是差不多，没什么变化。

Volume's still flattish.

在蓄力。

It's coiling.

在蓄力。

It's coiling.

在蓄力。

It's coiling.

我们正在为牛市早期的下一阶段积蓄动能。

And we're storing up kinetic energy for a future phase in the early bull.

这就是我想解读的方式。

That's how I want to interpret it.

我喜欢这个解读。

I love that interpretation.

我觉得大体上就是这样。

I think that is largely what's happening.

我也会试着从想买加密货币的人数和想卖的人数这个角度来思考。

I also sort of try to think about it in terms of just the number of people that want to buy, you know, crypto assets right now versus the number of people that want to sell.

我觉得卖家已经差不多卖完了，我们现在正处于卖家耗尽、然后新资金进入生态系统的这个阶段。

And I think we've sort of exhausted the sellers, and we're we're we're kind of in that process of exhausting the sellers and then sort of bringing new capital into the ecosystem.

稳定币的供应量是其中非常重要的一部分。

Stablecoin supply is a big, big part of this.

这也是我非常看好的一个方面。

It is one of the things that I'm pretty bullish on.

你提到了天才，就是美国财政部利用稳定币发行方的激励措施。

You mentioned genius, sort of the incentives of the US treasury to utilize Stablecoin issuers

这全是短期国债的事。

as It's all short end stuff.

我的意思是，所有稳定币不都是短期国债吗？

I mean, all Stablecoins are just short end treasuries, aren't they?

所以这就是他们想卖的东西。

So this is what they want to sell.

这就是财政部想要的新的……

This is what the treasury wants a new...

当他们发行债务时，希望有更多买家来买这些资产。

Wants more buyers for for for those assets when, you know, they're issuing their debt.

所以这里有一个激励，就是利用稳定币发行方，利用稳定币市场作为美国国债的买家。

So there's an incentive here to use the Stablecoin issuers, use the Stablecoin market as a buyer of US treasuries.

所以对我来说，这是非常看好的，因为这会推动更多流动性进入加密生态系统。

So that's a very bullish thing to me because that's going to push more liquidity into the crypto ecosystem.

实际上，在我看来，这会激励很多投机行为，政府的人可能会认为政府不希望看到这种事情发生。

It's actually gonna incentivize a lot of speculation in my in my opinion, and the government people might think that the government doesn't want to see that stuff happening.

但如果他们在推动稳定币，并且他们的行动实际上在激励这一点，那么他们就会……

But if they're pushing the Stablecoins and they're they're actually incentivizing it with their actions that they're go...

这会产生连锁反应。

There's going to be these knock on effects.

所以这就是我比较看好这个周期的一个原因，但我们还没有看到这种情况真正上演。

So that's one of the reasons I sort of like the setup for this cycle, but we haven't seen this play out just yet.

我在关注，你知道，Tether 已经和美国政府走得更近了，还在美国设立业务，诸如此类的事情。

I mean, I'm kinda watching, you know, Tether has become much more aligned with the US government and setting up US operations, things like this.

所以我们会继续关注……

So we'll be following...

我们可能会对这个领域做更多报道，也会聊聊我们接下来的预期，但这绝对是我……

We'll probably have, you know, more coverage of this area and kinda what we're expecting moving forward here, but definitely something I...

我在关注的事情。

I'm watching.

而且，你知道，这和上个周期的情况也挺一致的。

And, you know, it it is sort of consistent with the last cycle too.

直到2023年下半年，稳定币的供应量才开始真正增长。

We didn't see Stablecoin supply really start to inflect until later in 2023.

而且，从时间线来看，距离去年的高点才过了一年。

And, you know, from a from a timeline perspective, we're only a year removed from the high, you know, last year.

所以2023年底，那会儿离高点还有一段距离。

So end of twenty twenty three, that was, you know, that was a ways that was a ways out.

所以，我们即将进入的这一年，也就是周期的第二年，可能不会是牛市的那一年。上一个周期的大牛市是在2024年。

So this this, you know, kind of year that we're going into here, the second year of a of a cycle, it might not be the the bullish The the the big bull market year in the last cycle was 2024.

所以那又是一年后的事了。

And so that was that was another year out.

对我们来说，这个周期就是2028年。

For for us, that's 2028 in this cycle.

所以，你知道，市场不会直线上升。

So, you know, markets are not gonna go up in a straight line.

人们应该习惯这种波动。

People should sort of get used to these sort of impulses.

我们有点重新洗牌了。

We kinda reset.

得把一些人震出去。

Gotta shake some people out.

你懂吧？

You know?

我们还会看到一些这样的指标。

And we'll see some of these indicators.

我们在关注活跃贷款以及流动性指标，贷款从低点上涨了大约30%到40%。

We're looking at active loans as well as, like, a liquidity indicator, and loans are up, you know, up about 30, 40% off the lows.

甚至在过去一天里……

And even over the last day...

过去三十天，我们看到DeFi领域对信贷的需求在增加。

Last thirty days, we're seeing more demand in in DeFi for credit.

所以方向是对的，但我预计一开始会有点慢。

So moving in the right direction, but I I would expect this to be somewhat slow kind of out of the gate here.

我们聊聊宏观吧。

Let's move to macros.

上周我们重新看了一下。

So last week, we took a second look.

你说CPI数据其实表现不错。

You said CPI numbers actually came in good.

你之前在想……

You were wondering...

你觉得那是个看涨的信号，可能会让美联储不那么急着加息。

You were thinking that that was a sort of a a bullish indicator and that it might dampen the Fed's need to raise rates.

你还说你在等劳动力市场的数据。

You said also you were waiting on labor market data.

那个数据上周五出来了。

That labor market data came out last Friday.

实际新增就业是两万九千，预期是九万，所以比预期少了六万。

29,000 jobs versus 90,000 expected, so 60,000 under expectations.

七月和八月的就业数据也被下修了，比之前报告的少了六万个岗位。

July and August labor numbers were also revised lower, so they lost 60,000 jobs versus what was earlier reported.

所以劳动力数据看起来有点不稳？

So labor data looking a little shaky?

我不想替你把话说死，但你觉得劳动力数据传递了什么信号，你整体怎么看？

I don't wanna put that interpretation in your mouth but what's the signal that you're taking away from labor and the overall interpretation here?

我觉得这里最主要的结论是……

I think the main takeaway here is it's...

我会说，可能看起来有点不稳，但基本上，自从特朗普上台以来，劳动力市场的表现就是，嗯，就是……

I would say it's it's maybe looking a little bit shaky, but, basically, what's played out, I think, in the labor market since Trump has come in is, like, there's just there's...

我们没有看到大量裁员，所以失业率仍然很低，但同样也没有看到大量的就业机会创造。

We're not seeing tons of layoffs, so the unemployment rate is still low, but we're just also not seeing tons of job creation.

我觉得这很大程度上与移民有关，也与人工智能可能给劳动力市场带来的变化有关。

I think a lot of this has to do with immigration, has to do with what AI is is potentially introducing into the workforce.

你知道，我觉得总的来说，经济是健康的，很多人每天起床去上班。

You know, I think, generally speaking, the the economy is healthy, and lots of people are getting up and and going to work every day.

所以这一切看起来都很好。

And so that all looks good.

我关注的趋势主要是离职数据。

The the trends that I'm following are are kind of on the quits data.

我觉得这能让你深入了解劳动力的信心，而离职数据衡量的是离开现有工作去别处的人数。

Like, I think that gives you a lot of insight into, like, the the confidence of the workforce and what the quits data is measuring is just the amount of people that are leaving jobs to go go elsewhere.

这个趋势已经持续下降，看起来不太乐观，差不多有一年多了。

That has been, you know, trending down and not looking so great for over a year or so.

所以这告诉我们，整体劳动力市场的信心在下降。

So it's just telling you that the the workforce in general is, like, less optimistic.

现在对劳动力来说，好的机会不多了。

There's less, like, green pastures for for the workforce right now.

而且我觉得重要的是，这个情况正在被纳入美联储的考量中。

And I think it's important this is getting folded into the the feds.

你知道，他们正在……

You know, they're they're...

曼迪，他们关注的是充分就业和降低通胀。

What they're looking at there, Mandy, is, you know, full employment and also getting inflation down.

如果我们认为通胀可能已经见顶，如果伊朗那边有解决方案，油价不会创新高，那情况就变得有意思了。

And if we think inflation may have peaked, if we think that there is a resolution coming in in Iran, if oil is not going to go make a new, you know, a new high, then that kind of gets interesting.

如果你开始看到劳动力市场出现疲软，他们可能就得把更多注意力放在劳动力市场上。

If you're starting to see some weakness on the labor market, maybe they have to put their more attention on the labor market.

然后，你知道，我们并没有看到市场仍然预期的那些加息。

And then, you know, we don't see these rate hikes that are still priced in the market.

到明年六月之前，仍然还有三次加息。

There's still, you know, three rate hikes through next June.

当劳动力市场数据公布时，我们看到对十月的预期显著下降了。

We did see, like, the expectations for an October like, come off significantly when this labor market data came out.

但我觉得，目前收益率曲线仍然定价了很多鹰派情绪。

But there's still a lot of hawkishness, I would say, priced into the yield curve right now.

如果这种趋势继续下去，那……

And if this trend continues, it's...

对我来说，这是看涨的，因为这可能会排除一些预期的加息。

To me, it's a bullish thing because it probably prices out some of those expected rate hikes.

让我们花点时间谈谈股票，因为我觉得这里有一些矛盾，而且这与你今天报告中的宏观主题相吻合。

Let's turn to stocks for a minute because I think there's some paradoxes at play here, and it fits into the overarching macro story that that you're telling in today's report.

你有一个章节叫“损害是否已经造成？”

You have this section called is the damage already done?

你说到股市的损伤，有些人可能会说，哇。

And you're talking about damage to the stock market, some people will be like, woah.

什么损伤，迈克？

What damage, Mike?

其实，你说在九月份，一些市场内部指标恶化了。

Well, actually, you say in September, some of the market internals deteriorated.

那个月有78%的股票下跌。

78% of stocks declined during that month.

54%的股票至少比52周高点低了15%。

A 54% were at least 15% below their fifty two week high.

所以，在夏天、过去九十天以及进入九月份，确实有一些损伤，但现在我们却在这里。

So there was some damage done over the summer, the last ninety days and into September, and yet here we are.

标普500和纳斯达克现在又回到了历史高点。

The S and P and Nasdaq are now back at all time highs.

所以，当你看看这其中的机制，似乎发生的是股市有上涨，同时我们也看到对科技股、对七巨头、对大型AI交易的集中度越来越高。

So when you look at the mechanics of this, it seems like what's happened is we have gains in the stock market, and also we have increasing concentration towards tech, towards mag seven, towards big AI trade.