比特币网络健康检查：评估假设与新风险

欢迎来到报告。

Welcome to the report.

今天的报告，我们将重新评估比特币的投资逻辑。

Today's report, we are re underwriting the Bitcoin thesis.

今天是2026年3月11日。

It is 03/11/2026.

本周我们将对比特币进行一次健康检查。

We're gonna do a health check on Bitcoin this week.

正如你们所知，比特币一直是TDR投资组合的核心资产。

So Bitcoin has been, as you know, a core asset of the TDR portfolio.

我们必须确保这个基础稳固，因此我们将以清晰的眼光审视相关数据。

We gotta make sure this foundation is strong, so we're gonna take a clear eyed view at the numbers.

我们将查看算力、活跃地址和机构采用情况。

We're gonna look at hash rate, active addresses, institutional adoption.

我们还将审视未来可能面临的风险。

We're also gonna look at the risks ahead.

安全预算减少，集中度轻微，量子计算的威胁。

Security budget decreases, minor concentration, the threat of quantum computing.

比特币相对于纳斯达克和黄金的表现如何？

How is Bitcoin holding up against Nasdaq and gold?

请继续看到最后。

Stick around for the end.

迈克将为我们总结本周期的比特币观点，当然也会回顾TDR投资组合中的内容。

Mike's gonna give us his Bitcoin thesis summary this cycle and, of course, a recap of what is in the TDR portfolio.

迈克，你今天这份报告一开始就在谈重新评估比特币的理论。

Mike, you start this report, today's report, talking about re underwriting the thesis, the Bitcoin thesis specifically.

我喜欢这个词。

I love that word.

你是少数几个使用这个词的人之一，我很欣赏。

You're you're one of the few people who who use that word and I enjoy it.

当你提到‘重新评估理论’时，你具体指的是什么？

When you use the word re underwriting the thesis, what are you talking about?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我认为加密货币，尤其是比特币，其中一个不错的特点就是这个资产类别固有的高波动性。

So, you know, I think one of the nice things about crypto just generally, Bitcoin generally, is just the basically a feature of all the volatility of this asset class.

我将其视为一个优势，因为它为投资者创造了大量机会。

And I view it as a feature just because it creates so many opportunities for investors.

除此之外，还存在一种大约四年一次的周期性，通常围绕比特币减半事件展开。

On top of that, you have this cyclicality and kind of this roughly four year cycle that tends to revolve around the the Bitcoin halving.

这让我能够每隔四年左右退一步，做一个全面的健康检查。

And this just allows me to kind of zoom out, like, every four years or so and just sort of do a do a health check.

而今天我们所做的，正是要梳理一下我们认为最重要的事项，以确保比特币仍处于我们一直投资支持的轨道上。

And that's kinda what we're doing today is just kinda go through what we think are the most important things to make sure that Bitcoin is on the path that we've, you know, been investing behind.

因此，这就是我们今天要重点讨论的内容。

And so that's really what what we're gonna go through today.

或许所有资产类别的投资者都应当定期重新评估自己的投资逻辑。

Probably all investors across all asset classes should re underwrite their thesis on some sort of schedule.

对吧？

Right?

我想这是因为我们有日历，这起到了推动作用。

I guess this is a forcing function because we have a calendar.

加密货币有四年周期，这迫使我们实际上定期这样做。

We have four year cycles in cryptos, which just forces us to effectively do that.

而且你喜欢这样。

And you enjoy that.

我认为这就是为什么你在熊市时眼睛发亮，因为你可以做大量的分析工作。

I I think that's why your your your eyes glow during the bear markets because you get to do all this analysis work.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

这是独一无二的。

It's it's unique.

我的意思是，这对加密资产类别来说也是独特的。

I mean, this is unique for to the crypto asset class as well.

你知道，在其他资产类别、传统市场中，你并不会真的遇到这样的机会。

You know, you don't really get these opportunities in, you know, other asset classes, other in traditional markets.

所以，这种东西能帮助任何投资者保持智力上的好奇心，同时也保持智力上的诚实。

So something that that that can help any investor just to stay, you know, stay intellectually curious and just stay intellectually honest as well.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，拥抱熊市带来的脑力挑战吧。

So embrace the pain of the brain mark the bear market.

这对我们来说是一个巨大的机会。

A it's a huge opportunity for us.

在开始之前，想感谢我们在 GALAXY 的朋友和赞助商。

Before we get in, wanna thank our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY.

这一段是说给正在聆听的机构听的。

This one's for the institutions listening.

如果你正在考虑加密货币和金融的未来，GALAXY 在这两方面都能满足你的需求。

If you're thinking about crypto, the future of finance, where AI, GALAXY has you covered on both sides of this.

他们已经确立了自己在全球的领先地位，不仅在加密货币领域，还在推动人工智能时代的至关重要的数据中心基础设施方面。

They've established themselves as a global leader, not just of crypto, but also the critical data center infrastructure that's powering the AI era.

在这方面，他们拥有1.6吉瓦的已批准电力容量。

On that, they have a 1.6 gigawatts of approved power.

这些电力位于他们的Helios站点。

This is at their Helios site.

他们正将这些电力用于人工智能。

They're using that for AI.

当然，他们在加密货币方面也同样全面覆盖，包括机构交易、托管和代币化服务。

They also, of course, have you covered on the crypto side, including institutional trading, custody, and tokenization.

你们都知道他们的股票代码，是GLXY。

You guys know the ticker, it's GLXY.

你可以在节目笔记中的链接里了解更多关于GALAXY如何帮助机构投资、构建和持续转型的信息。

You can find out more about them, about how GALAXY helps institutions invest, build, and transform relentlessly at a link in the show notes.

网址是 bankless.cc/galaxy。

That's bankless.cc/galaxy.

好的。

Alright.

迈克，我们来聊聊你的仓位配置。

Mike, let's get into your positioning.

本周初，我觉得你大约持有50%现金和50%加密资产。

Coming into the week, I think you're about 50% cash, 50% crypto.

因此，你在本轮熊市中已经转向了风险偏好模式。

So you have leaned into the risk on mode during this this bear market.

这很令人振奋。

So that's exciting.

我们录制时，比特币的价格是多少？

At the time we are recording, where's Bitcoin?

比特币价格现在是多少？

Where's Bitcoin price?

实际上，我没有图表。

Actually, I don't have the chart.

我们是在7万美元附近盘整吗？

Are we hovering in 70 k?

大约7万美元左右。

70 k or so.

没错。

Exactly.

所以价格在上下波动，你知道的，我们之前跌到了六万多的低点，现在感觉像是在确立一个底部，正在试图判断它最终会稳定在哪个位置。

So bouncing around, you know, we've been we came all the way down to the low sixties, and it feels like we're sort of just, you know, establishing, you know, a low, and we're trying to identify where that eventually is going to settle.

我们还处于这个过程的早期阶段，才过去了大约五个月。

We're still fairly early in this process, about five months into it.

所以，我们现在的心态是，耐心等待。

So, you know, our our our our view right now is is kind of like, let's be patient.

我们处于风险模式，但同时也很有耐心，并在观察市场。

We're at risk on mode, but we're kinda patient at the same time and and observing the market.

在我们保持耐心的同时，我们必须确保我们的基础稳固，因为比特币是您投资组合的核心资产。

At the same time we're being patient, we have to make sure our foundation is sound here because Bitcoin is a core position for your portfolio.

那么我们开始吧。

So let's get into it.

我们开始吧。

Let's go.

让我们谈谈你今天为我们准备的一些数据。

Let's talk about some of the numbers that you prepared for us today.

首先是挖矿和网络安全性。

First is looking at mining and network security.

这是哈希率，比特币的平均哈希率。

So this is the hash rate, the Bitcoin mean hash rate.

为什么这很重要？

Why is this important?

这可能是我们在这里关注的最重要的健康指标之一。

Probably the most important kind of like health metric that we look at here.

这就是算力。

This is the hash rate.

这里的图表看起来相当不错。

It's a pretty nice looking chart here.

为什么这如此重要？

And why is this so important?

这是比特币网络的安全性。

This is the security of the Bitcoin network.

如果有人想攻击比特币网络，他们必须控制超过51%的算力。

So if somebody wanted to try to attack the Bitcoin network, they would have to take control over 51% of the the hash rate.

这意味着要收购ASIC矿机以及与此相关的所有资本投入。

And so that would be, you know, that would mean acquiring the the ASIC machines and all the capital investment that goes into that.

还有场地成本。

There's real estate.

要获得全网51%的算力，需要克服的困难是相当大的。

There's, you know, there's quite a bit that would have to be overcome to to get 51% of the the network.

因此，这表明网络的安全性达到了有史以来的最高水平。

And so this just, you know, it it it tells you that the network is as secure as basically it's it's ever been.

另外，挖矿本身就是一个非常非常艰难的行业。

And then the other piece of it is, you know, mining is just a really, really hard business.

是的。

And Yeah.

这是一个资本密集型行业。

It's capital intensive.

竞争极其激烈。

It's incredibly competitive.

这些市场波动剧烈，收入也不稳定。

These markets are volatile and your revenues are are volatile.

因此，当你看到有人如此坚定地投资比特币时，这说明他们对 Bitcoin 有长期的资金承诺，涉及数十亿美元在能源基础设施、资本支出、运行设备以及建设数据中心的土地投入。

And so when you see, like, just this commitment from people that want to invest behind Bitcoin, this is just telling me that there's long term capital commitment here, and it's billions of dollars of sort of investment into energy infrastructure, into the CapEx, you know, the machines to run these, the real estate, to build the data centers.

所以这告诉我，这个领域仍然充满信心。

So there's it just tells me there's still a lot of confidence from this sector.

尽管这是一个极其复杂且竞争激烈的领域。

Even though it's an incredibly complex and and and competitive sector.

人们仍然希望进入这个行业。

People still wanna enter enter this.

因此，这对我来说是一个看涨信号。

And so that's to me is is a bullish indicator.

这确实是一个看涨信号。

It is a bullish indicator.

你刚才说这里涨了四倍。

And so you said here it's up four x.

比特币的算力自2023年以来增长了四倍，从周期高点算则增长了7.3倍。

So Bitcoin mean hash rate is up four x since 2023 and 7.3 x from the cycle peak.

这里在2026年有一个下降。

There there's this dip here in 2026.

这种涨落现象我在这里也看到过其他低谷。

Does does this kind of ebb and flow and I've seen other dips here.

我不确定哈希率的低谷是否通常对应于熊市？

I I don't know if that the dips in hash rate, do they generally correspond to to bear markets?

我们是不是在熊市时才会看到这些低谷？

Is that when we see dips?

有可能。

They can.

那个位于中间的大低谷，我想大概是2021年5月左右，正好出现在上一轮牛市的峰值之后，也就是四月峰值之后。

So that that one that the big one kind of in the middle there that was, I think, around May 2021, that was the one that came sort of at the peak of, like, the first in the last bull market after the April peak.

这其实和当时埃隆·马斯克发推文谈论能源成本有关，特斯拉对比特币挖矿的能源消耗表示担忧，真是令人震惊。

And it was real related to, like, I think enter I think people were attributing it to Elon Musk tweeting about, you know, energy costs at the time, and Tesla was concerned about just the energy consumption Wow.

比特币挖矿的能源消耗。

Of of Bitcoin mining.

那是一次大规模的矿工退出，但之后又恢复了。

And so that was, like, a big capitulation of the mining, but it it came back.

在比特币价格于今年十月见顶后，我们确实经历了一次大约15%的大幅回调，之后价格又从那里反弹了。

We did have a pretty big, you know, 15% or so correction after Bitcoin price peaked in this in this past October, and it's kinda bounced off of that.

所以，在我看来，每个周期中矿业领域都会经历一次洗牌，而每次熊市通常也会在熊市后期才到来。

So, you know, to me, there is there is there tends to be kind of a shakeout in the mining sector each cycle and each bear market tends to come later in the bear market.

但我认为，看到这些小幅回调是非常正常的。

But I think this is pretty normal to see these these little corrections.

当然，迄今为止，比特币是规模最大的工作量证明网络，其运行完全依赖于算力。

And by far, of course, Bitcoin is the largest proof of work network that is that is, you know, powered by hash rate in this way.

我不知道你有没有见过。

I don't if you've ever seen so.

一些比特币支持者称这是‘能源壁垒’，因为这不仅体现在数据中心的规模上，还消耗了海量的能源和电力。

Some Bitcoiners have called this the the energy wall because not only is it a six in data centers, of course, but it consumes an awful lot of energy, an awful lot of power.

这是一个显示比特币当前估算耗电量（单位：吉瓦）的网站，目前接近19吉瓦。

This is a website that shows the estimated amount of gigawatts that Bitcoin is consuming right now, so it's almost 19 gigawatts.

为了让你有个概念，这大约相当于19座核电站的发电量。

Just to give you a sense, that's about 19 nuclear power plants.

这大致就是我们在这里所看到的总耗能情况。

That's kinda what we're looking at in terms of the total consumption here.

要达到这种级别的哈希率可不是一件容易的事。

So it's a tall order to get to this level of of hash rate.

这需要大量的基础设施，并且分布在全球各地。

It requires a whole lot of infrastructure and it's kind of spread out across the world.

对吧？

Right?

它的分布地点会有所波动，但你所看到的是长期的资本投入。

It kinda ebbs and flows in in terms of where it's located, but that's the that's the long term capital commitment that you're seeing.

我们来谈谈与此相关的一个指标，也就是矿工费用和区块奖励。

Let's talk about a metric that's related to this, which is miner fees and block rewards.

这些指标激励了哈希率，对吧？

So these are the metrics that incent the hash rate, don't they?

没错。

Exactly.

是的

Yeah.

所以这张图表显示的是矿工在粉色区域所获得的收入。

So this is, you know, this chart's showing the revenues that that miners are earning in that pink area there.

那就是区块奖励。

That is the block rewards.

这就是比特币的补贴。

So that's the Bitcoin subsidy.

目前每天大约挖出415到450个比特币。

Right now, there's 415 big 450 Bitcoin that are mined, you know, per day.

这就是矿工们获得的补贴。

So that's that's the subsidy that the miners get there.

蓝色部分是交易手续费。

The blue is the transaction fees.

我们曾看到过一些时期，由于各种原因，手续费出现了飙升。

And we've seen, like, some periods where fees have have spiked up for different reasons.

2021年，这更多与比特币网络上的实际交易活动有关。

In 2021, it was more related to just actual activity on the on the Bitcoin network transaction activity.

我们在2024年初看到了一个相当大的峰值。

And we saw a pretty big spike in early twenty twenty four.

这实际上是因为不同的原因。

That was actually for a different reason.

这是因为我们开始看到比特币网络被用于NFT、铭文以及在比特币网络上存储其他类型的数据。

That was because we started to see the Bitcoin network being used for NFTs and inscriptions and storing other types of data on the Bitcoin network.

那是一段挺有意思的时期。

That was kind of an interesting period of time.

当时我们认为，这可能是一个会持续下去的用例，比特币或许会被用来存储其他类型的数据。

We thought at the time maybe there was a chance that that was a use case that would stick and that Bitcoin would potentially be used to store other types of data.

看起来这更像是昙花一现，但在这段时间里，由于链上额外的交易费用，矿工们赚得不错。

It it appears that that was more of a a flash in the pan, but the miners did very well during that period because of all those extra fees on chain.

但我认为，对我来说，这里最重要的启示是：这就是比特币的安全预算。

But I think, you know, the big the big takeaway for me here is just this is this is the security budget of Bitcoin.

你可以在这些图表中大致看到减半对比特币矿工的影响。

You can kinda see the impact that the halving has on the miners in these in these charts.

所以如果你回看2021年那段时期，会看到粉色线条大幅下降。

So if you go back to the 2021 period there, you see a big drop off in the in the pink.

那就是减半。

That's that's the halving.

之后由于比特币价格在减半后上涨，曲线又回升，接着进入熊市，我们在这一轮周期中又看到了同样的模式。

And then it comes up because the price of Bitcoin is coming up, you know, after the halving, and then you go into a bear market, and we saw the same pattern again in this cycle.

所以总的来说，对我来说，这看起来像是收入基本趋于平稳。

And so at the end of the day, what what that looks like to me is like the the revenues are sort of flatlining.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，它们随着比特币价格剧烈波动，但如果你宏观来看，基本上就是持平了。

You know, they they are very volatile with the price of Bitcoin, but if you kinda zoom out on it, it's pretty much flatlining.

但没有持平的是算力。

But what's not flatlining is the hash rate.

对吧？

Right?

这表明挖比特币正变得越来越具有竞争性。

So it tells you that it's just becoming more and more competitive to mine Bitcoin.

如果你想作为矿工抢占市场份额，关键就在于找到扩大规模的方法，以及获得规模优势的途径。

And if you want to to capture market share as a miner, it's all about just finding ways to to scale and finding ways to gain advantages to scale.

我认为，这在某种程度上存在哈希率集中化的风险。

And, you know, this is, you know, I think a risk in some ways for just kind of centralization of of the hash rate.

我认为随着时间推移，这其实是一种自然的市场趋势，长期来看，这种趋势是不可避免的。

I think over time, which is just sort of a natural kind of market, There's there's really just kind of like a natural push in that direction, I think, over time.

好的。

Okay.

所以当我们看这些数据时，这实际上就是比特币网络的安全预算指标。

So when we look at some of these numbers, like the this is really the security budget type number.

比特币网络的风险就在这里，我想听听你的看法。

This is where a risk to the Bitcoin network does come in, and I want to get you to weigh in on this.

目前，我们每年的安全预算约为120亿到130亿美元。

So right now we have about 12 to $13,000,000,000 per year in security budget annualized.

这主要是如你所说，来自区块发行。

This is primarily from issuance as you said.

是的。

Yep.

每天450个比特币，那就是每天的区块奖励。

450 Bitcoin is that per day, that block rewards per day.

是的。

Yep.

20.28美元将会减半，而20.32美元则会再次减半。

$20.28, that's gonna be cut in half and then $20.32, that's gonna be cut in half yet again.

对。

Right.

交易手续费仅占矿工报酬的0.4%。

Transaction fees are just point 0.4% of minor compensation.

所以，交易费用似乎不会成为安全预算的持久来源。

So it doesn't seem like transaction fees are going to be a durable source of the security budget.

因此，背后发生的一个有趣指标是安全预算占市值的百分比，我们看到有些人对此感到担忧，这确实构成了一种风险：随着时间推移，作为市值百分比的安全预算正在下降。

So what's happening in the background is an interesting metric here which is security budget as a percentage of market cap and what we see in kind of a, you know, some people are alarmed by this, this does present a risk is as a percentage of market cap, security budget is going down over time.

在比特币早期，安全预算占市值的比例大约为12%到15%，而现在已低于1%。

So it started in the very early days of Bitcoin to be about 12 to 15% security as a percentage of market cap and now it's under 1%.

如果你预测到2028年，还会再经历一次减半，可能降至0.4%，甚至可能降到0.2%。

And if you kind of forecast this to 2028, you know, you get another halving, maybe get 0.4%, maybe at 0.2%.

当然，只要价格每四年翻一番，矿工获得的数十亿美元收益仍可保持在约120亿到130亿美元的水平。

Of course, the value of, in billions to miners can stay the same, it could stay at about 12 to 13,000,000,000 as long as the price doubles every four years.

因此，多种动态因素在同时作用，但目前显现的趋势是：作为市值百分比的安全预算正随时间推移而下降。

So there's multiple dynamics at play but the dynamic that is showing is as a percent of market cap the security budget is going down over time.

目前我们还不确定究竟需要多少资金才能真正保障比特币网络的安全，而且确实，到目前为止我们尚未在现实中看到51%攻击的发生。

Now we're not really sure how much you need to actually secure the Bitcoin network and it's true we haven't seen 51% attacks really in practice so far.

但你必须考虑到，如果这个数字变得过小，就可能开始带来一些问题。

But you have to think if that number gets too small, it could start to present some problems.

你对这种比特币的安全预算风险怎么看？

What do you think of this risk for Bitcoin, the security budget risk?

所以，是的，我认为有必要关注这个问题，而我目前的看法是，以当前的算力和矿工群体的去中心化程度来看，几乎不可能通过攻击来破坏比特币。

So, yeah, I think it's fair to to look at this and I guess my view on it right now is I think it's almost impossible to to to hack Bitcoin based on the amount of hash rate and the decentralization of the miner base right now.

所以我觉得你不用担心。

So I think I think you're you're fine.

而这个问题会变得严重的情况是，如果你看到比特币的价格走势没有如预期那样发展。

And where this would become an issue is if you just saw, like to me, the way that this would unravel is just Bitcoin doesn't do the price action doesn't do what you think it's going to do.

随着时间推移，挖矿变得无利可图，然后你就会看到整个体系逐渐瓦解，也就是说，如果挖矿不再盈利，就会有更多矿工退出。

And over time, it becomes uneconomical to mine, and then you just see sort of an unwind, you know, essentially in that whole structure where if it's not profitable to mine, you see more miners come off.

可能在某个价格水平上，系统会达到一个较低的均衡点。

There there may be some equilibrium price where it sort of establishes a low.

但对我来说，你知道，挖矿存在各种风险，比如我们未来是否能有足够的交易费来维持矿工的激励？

But to me, you know, there's all these risks, you know, with mining and, you know, are we gonna have enough transaction fees to support, you know, the the incentive to mine moving forward?

归根结底，对我来说，这最终还是取决于比特币的价格以及人们对这个网络的感知。

And to me, at the end of the day, like, it just comes down to the price of Bitcoin and, like, how people are perceiving the network.

我认为，在过去四五年的过程中，比特币被越来越多地视为数字黄金，而不是支付网络，而且稳定币已经接管了支付这一用途。

I think what what has become clear over the last, you know, four or five years is that Bitcoin is, you know, being viewed as digital gold and not a payment network and not being used, you know, that stablecoins have sort of took taken over that that use case.

因此，只要人们继续相信比特币是数字黄金，并将其作为储蓄技术使用，且价格持续上涨，这些问题就都不是问题。

And so as long as, like, people continue to believe that Bitcoin's digital gold and they're using it as, a savings technology and the price continues to rise, these are not issues.

但如果这种认知被打破，那么整个比特币的理论基础就可能崩溃。

But if that if that breaks, then basically, the whole, you know, the whole thesis can break.

这就是我看待这个问题的方式。

So that's kinda how I think of it.

只要人们将其视为一种具有稀缺性并具备其他重要特性的价值储存手段，这才是最重要的，我认为。

As long as people view it as a store of value that has a scarcity and it has all the other properties that people care about, that that's that's really the most important thing, I think.

所以，只要价格继续上涨，我们基本上就没事，对吧？

So as long as price continues to go up, we're we're basically fine, at least?

是的。

Yeah.

然后你必须问自己，为什么价格会上涨？

And and and then you have to ask yourself, well, why is price going up?

我认为这些都是其他关键属性——它的稀缺性、去中心化、工作量证明、比特币的品牌，以及它如何被金融化，所有这些因素。

And I think it's all of those other key attributes, scarcity of it, the decentralization, the proof of work, the brand that Bitcoin has, how it's been, you know, financialized, and all of those things.

所以我认为你只需要不断看到这些特性持续显现。

So I think you just need to keep seeing those things come through.

而比特币其实不需要做太多。

And Bitcoin doesn't have to do much.

它不需要创新。

It doesn't have to innovate.

它几乎只需要保持不变，越不变越好。

It almost has to just, like, not change is, like, the more the more

是的。

Yeah.

这正是它的优势。

That's the feature.

它的特点就是不改变吗？

It's not is it not changing?

看到这种算力水平确实令人印象深刻，尤其是在能源和数据中心空间与人工智能竞争如此激烈的情况下。

It is impressive to see this hash rate, particularly when there's been so much competition for energy and also data center space with with AI.

因此，这确实是一个看涨信号。

So that indeed is a is a bullish indicator.

但话说回来，比特币矿工的构成也在发生变化。

But, you know, that said, the the profile of Bitcoin miners is is also changing.

你看，这里有两个可能改变比特币挖矿格局的重大趋势：能源创新，即能源成本下降。

You you right here, you see two potential major changes in Bitcoin mining, energy innovation, so declining energy costs.

你有核能。

You've got nuclear.

你有原本被闲置或过剩的天然气，以及可能提升矿工利润的可再生能源。

You've got natural gas that's maybe stranded, surplus re renewables that could increase miner profit.

此外，我们还看到一种趋势：一些政府正试图通过利用其廉价能源进入挖矿领域。

And also, we have this trend of governments that may be entering the the mining space as a way to monetize their their cheap energy.

这种现象首先在一些小国出现，比如不丹已经推出了一项计划。

This is happening in smaller countries first, like, Bhutan has rolled out a program Yep.

萨尔瓦多已经这样做了，一些中东主权国家也在讨论此事。

El Salvador has, some Middle East sovereigns are talking about it.

是的。

Yep.

但这些主权国家越多地进入，对比特币来说就越是一个看涨信号，因为如果它们参与挖矿，就意味着它们对比特币网络和金融体系有了切身利益，你也可以合理推测它们还会将比特币纳入某种形式的国家储备中。

But the more these sovereigns start to enter, that is a a bullish indicator for Bitcoin because if they're entering mining, then they have a vested interest in the Bitcoin network and financial system, and you can also bet they're going to have some form of a a sovereign reserve with Bitcoin in it as well.

所以这些因素是相互关联的，我想这正是工作量证明能源网络的美妙之处。

So these things are are linked, and that's the the beauty of a energy proof of work network, I suppose.

我觉得是这样。

I think so.

我觉得看到这种情况如何发展会非常有趣。

I think this is this is very interesting to see how this is gonna start to play out.

我记不清是哪家大公司了，可能是Riot，但Riot的首席执行官多次谈到过这个观点：他预计政府会进入挖矿领域，因为这是一个人们很少讨论的问题，但我们有可能进入一个这样的世界——如果你的国家没有任何挖矿活动，你的交易就可能无法上链。

I can't remember which one of the large it might have been Riot, but the CEO of Riot has talked a lot about this idea that governments he expects governments to get into mining because this is sort of a something that people don't talk about that much, but there's a chance that we enter a world where, like, if there this becomes like a geopolitical issue where if you don't have any mining in your country, there's a chance that your transactions won't land on on the Bitcoin network.

因此，如果你想在比特币上完成结算，实际上就必须拥有一定的挖矿基础设施，这一点在未来可能会越来越为人所知。

And so you actually have to be able to have some mining infrastructure if you want to be able to settle on Bitcoin, and that this may become sort of more known moving forward.

但我觉得，当你思考为什么人们如此急切地参与挖矿，为什么算力增长得这么快时？

But I think, you know, when we think about just like when you think about why is there just such a big rush to to to for people to be mining, why is the hash rate going up so much?

我的意思是，一个可能的考虑是，我们很可能将看到能源领域的某些创新。

I mean, one consideration might be that we are probably gonna see some some innovation in the energy sector.

如果你已经具备规模，作为一个矿工，你现在正努力实现大规模运营，并且你知道你业务中最大的投入成本可能会下降，因为你能够利用可再生能源、廉价的可再生能源，也许是核能。

And, you know, if you end up if you have scale, if you're a miner and you're you're you're really getting it to scale at this point, and you know that the the largest input cost for your business potentially is going to be coming down because you're gonna be able to tap into renewable energy, cheap renewable energy sources, maybe it's nuclear.

这很有趣，因为突然之间你拥有了巨大的规模，能够显著提升利润率，因为你可以将运营成本——尤其是比特币矿工的能源成本——降低约80%。

That's interesting because now all of sudden you have tons of scale and you're just able to to really improve your margins because you can bring, you know, your cost out about 80%, I think, of operating costs or energy, you know, for for Bitcoin miners.

好的。

Okay.

所以目前算力在上升。

So we have hash rate up only.

我们目前的安全预算基本持平，还没有下降，因为价格到目前为止还保持稳定。

We have security budget basically flat, not decreasing yet because prices has kept up so far.

我们来谈谈网络上的活跃地址。

Let's talk about active addresses on the network.

看起来从2017年左右开始也一直持平，没什么增长。

That looks like it's also been flat from about 2017 or so, so not a lot of growth there.

这对你来说意味着什么？

What does that mean to you?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，你知道，当比特币刚出现时，人们觉得它就是数字现金。

So, you know, again, I think this comes back to, you know, when Bitcoin came out, it was like, okay, it's digital cash.

我们曾尝试在比特币上进行一些创新，比如闪电网络，想把它变成一个支付网络。

You know, we've had some innovation attempts on Bitcoin with, like, the lightning network and being able to turn it into a payment network.

但这些尝试都没能成功。

It just hasn't it just hasn't panned out.

我认为，稳定币显然是更适合作为链上点对点支付的工具。

I think it's become clear that stablecoins are a better vehicle for peer to peer on chain payments.

因此，越来越清楚的是，人们与比特币的互动方式——至少对大多数人来说——并不是直接在链上进行的。

And so what's become clear is, like, the way that people interact with Bitcoin, or at least most people, is not really on the chain itself.

对吧？

Right?

他们去中心化交易所购买比特币。

They're going to a centralized exchange, buying their Bitcoin.

他们通过ETF进行购买。

They're doing it through an ETF.

在某些情况下，他们使用封装比特币，以便访问去中心化金融。

Maybe in some cases, they're they're using wrapped wrapped Bitcoin because they want to access DEFI.

他们是在以太坊上进行这些操作。

They're doing that on Ethereum.

因此，链上交互点很少，我认为这张图表反映的就是这一点。

And so there's not a lot of touch points on the chain, and I think that's what this this chart is is reflecting here.

这样可以吗？

Is that okay?

我的意思是，这对你来说是看涨的吗？

I mean, is that is that bullish to you?

这是看跌吗？

Is that bearish?

我想，我看着这张图表，觉得这对审查抵抗、自托管以及比特币网络未来的交易费用来说并不理想。

I guess maybe I look at this chart and I think, okay, that's not great for censorship resistance, self custody, transaction fees in the Bitcoin network in the future.

是的。

Yep.

话虽如此，这张图表也显示，如果你将它与比特币价格从2017年的20美元上涨到现在的情况对应起来，价格一直在稳步上升。

That said, this does this chart also does show if you if you map this to kinda like and yet Bitcoin price from $20.17 up to now is like just up into the right.

所以这确实表明，比特币的存储价值和黄金类用途主要发生在链下，而且这种需求非常强劲。

So this does show a concentration on the store value gold type use case off chain and that's been so strong.

因此，这几乎表明比特币网络更像是一个仅用于数字财富储存这一用途的链应用。

So it almost seems to indicate that the Bitcoin network is an app chain for one use case which is digital store of wealth.

对。

Yeah.

而这一用途在链下如此成功，以至于这些数字可能没那么重要了。

And that use case has been so successful off chain that maybe these numbers don't matter as much.

但话说回来，如果所有的供应都离线，没有人使用这个网络，那我就想不通了：我们为什么一开始要建立这个网络？链上这些低迷的数据是否正在削弱它的基础？还是说，这仅仅反映了价值存储这一用途主要发生在链下的事实？

But that said, if you had all of the supply off chain and no one was kind of using the network, then, I don't know, that that starts to present this paradox of like, well then why do we have a network in the first place, and is it is it is the foundation being weakened by these anemic numbers on chain, or do you think this is just representative of the concentration on the on the use case of store of value off chain?

你知道吗，从我的角度来看，我希望看到这个链被更多地使用。

You know, I think from my perspective, I I would like to see this you know, the chain being used for more.

比如，即使只是创新，像人们用铭文和NFT所做的那些事情。

Like, even if it's just innovation and there's people like, people what people were doing with inscriptions and NFT.

我喜欢看到创新。

Like, I like to see innovation.

我喜欢看到这个链被使用。

I like to see the chain being used.

我喜欢看到人们在构建东西。

I like to see people building.

我喜欢看到交易发生。

I like to see transactions.

所以，我希望看到这些数据能更多地向上右方增长。

So I would like to see that, you know, sort of moving up into the right a little bit more.

但对我来说，这只是告诉我，实际情况并非如此。

But to me, like, it just it it tells me that that's that's just not what's happening.

实际情况正如你所说的，这是一种储蓄技术，大多数人实际上是在链下与它互动。

What is happening is is what you're saying is this is a savings technology, and actually most people are interacting with it off off chain.

我认为，真正的启示是，即使在所有这些去中心化系统、去中心化网络和加密货币中，仍然存在一些强大的力量，它们在集中化访问点等方面发挥作用。

I think I think, like, really the takeaway is that just even with all of these decentralized systems, decentralized networks, crypto, there are, like, these very strong forces that sort of centralize the access points and stuff.

如果你想让这些资产和用例广泛地为人们所用，你就得让他们能够轻松地与之互动。

If you want to make these assets and these use cases available to broadly to people, you kinda need to make it easy for them to to interact with it.

而大多数人不会去设置一个钱包，然后经历所有步骤去购买比特币并自行保管。

And most people, you know, are not gonna go set up a a wallet and go through all the steps to buy the Bitcoin and custody it themselves.

因此，对我来说，这仅仅是一种自然的、关于中心化的市场力量。

And so this is to me just a natural, like, market force on centralization.

但最重要的是，实际的比特币网络仍然保留着去中心化、抗审查、稀缺性等所有最重要的特性。

But the most the the important thing is that the actual Bitcoin network still has all the most important properties around decentralization and censorship resistance and scarcity and all those things.

所以这些特性依然存在，但人们与之互动的方式，可能并没有真正充分利用这些特性。

So that's still sitting there, but people are just interacting with it in a way where they're not actually maybe utilizing those those properties as much.

没错。

That's right.

这看起来确实交易频率很低，但链上这个非零余额地址的数量实际上很惊人。

It does seem to be very low velocity, but this is a number on chain that is actually impressive, which is number of addresses with the nonzero balance.

当然，这个数字是累积的，所以你可能会认为它只会上升，但它确实在上升。

And this number of course, this is a cumulative number, so you'd expect it to just go up, I suppose, but it is up.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Yeah.

这个数字确实在上升。

This is you know, it's going up.

你知道吧？

You know?

正如你所说，这是累计数据，所以它并没有反映出同比的变化。

Like you said, it's cumulative, so it's not giving us the year over year change.

去年它增长了大约6%，过去五年左右增长了约57个。

It did grow about 6% last last year, up about 57 over the last five years or so.

目前大约有五千万个这样的非零比特币钱包。

And there's about 55,000,000 of these, you know, nonzero Bitcoin wallets.

很难说，这些数字是否真的超过了通过ETF和交易所持有比特币的人数。

Hard to say, you know, if that is actually more than the amount of people that actually own Bitcoin via ETFs and exchanges.

我认为集中化平台那边的数量实际上更多。

I think it's actually more on the centralized side.

但它只是让你了解到，我们希望看到的是，随着时间推移，持有少量比特币的用户群体持续增长，而大额持有者的数量逐渐减少。

But it just gives you an idea of, you know, we wanna see over time, like, the holder base of Bitcoin in smaller quantities continue to grow, and then the holder base of the sort of whales start to come down.

这基本上就是我们在很长一段时间里所看到的趋势。

And that's essentially what we've been seeing over over a long period of time.

不过，这里最令人印象深刻的数字可能还是围绕机构采用，而这又回到了数字黄金的使用场景。

The most impressive numbers here are probably around institutional adoption though, which, again, is that digital gold use case.

你能谈谈ETF，以及全球数字资产的策略吗？

So can you talk about ETFs, and can you talk about the digital assets, the strategies of the world?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，这基本上是上一个周期的事情，我们通过金融化、引入这些产品并取得巨大成功，实现了巨大的飞跃。

This is, you know, I think this was, like, basically the last cycle, and we just, like, made this huge leap here by getting financialized, by bringing these products in, and then being wildly successful.

目前，比特币ETF持有约6%的总供应量。

So, you know, the Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about 6% of of the total supply.

这从零增长上来了，我想。

That's up from zero, I guess.

什么？

What?

比如，三年前什么都没有。

Like, you know, three there was nothing.

什么都没有。

There was nothing.

已经买过了。

Already bought it.

四。

Four.

是的。

Yeah.

几年时间。

A couple years.

而真正令人印象深刻的是，这是一种极其波动的资产。

And, you know, what's what's really impressive here is, like, this is an extremely volatile asset.

你只是让大多数人获得了准入机会。

You just you've you've sort of just given access to mostly people.

我假设这些人大部分是通过ETF首次购买比特币的人。

I'm assuming these are mostly people that were buying Bitcoin, you know, for the first time through the ETF.

因此，你让大量不熟悉比特币如此高波动性的人获得了准入机会。

And so you've given access to to basically a lot of people that are not used to the amount of volatility that comes to to to to Bitcoin.

而且我们的跌幅大约在45%到50%左右，但ETF持仓中实际被赎回的只有大约9.4%。

And we're down about, you know, 45, 50% or so, and only about 9.4% of the ETF holdings have actually been redeemed.

所以这对我来说是一个非常积极的信号，而且说实话，我原本并没有对ETF形成什么明确的判断。

So that's a really positive sign to me, and it kinda just you know, I I I didn't really have a thesis for, like, the ETFs.

我觉得我当时只是觉得它们会表现不错，会被广泛接受，但你难免会想，对冲基金会不会只是用它来做基差交易，单纯把比特币当成赚钱工具。

Like, I think I I thought they would be they would do well and they would be, you know, broadly adopted, but you kinda wonder, like, if hedge funds are just gonna kinda use it to, like, do the basis trades and, like, just kind of, like, just basically use Bitcoin to to make some money.

但看起来，持有者似乎比我们预想的更加坚定，这真是一个非常好的信号。

But it it seems like the the holder base is kind of, like, you know, a little more diamond handed maybe than we thought, and that that's a really good sign.

还有最后一点，我认为人们仍然没有充分认识到，这些ETF产品是有史以来最成功的金融ETF产品。

And, like, the the last thing here is that, you know, I still think it's not fully, like, appreciated that these these ETF products were the most successful financial ETF products in history.

它们是历史上首个也是最快达到一千亿美元资产管理规模的产品。

They're the first first to ever first fastest to a 100,000,000,000 in AUM.

我觉得这一点仍然被低估了。

Like, that still is underreported, I think.

这太惊人了。

It's incredible.

这太不可思议了。

It's incredible.

还有，由财政部公司持有的比特币。

Also, Bitcoin held by treasury firms.

所以你有像迈克尔·塞勒这样的人，他们也相当坚定地持有。

So you've got the Michael Sailors of the world who are pretty diamond handed as well.

你觉得这是一个积极的催化剂吗？还是你担心未来会出现某种抛售？

Do do you see that as a positive catalyst, or are you worried about some sort of unwind in the future here?

是的。

Yeah.

这就像当你看到迈克尔·塞勒不断买入大量比特币，而人们试图抢先跟风时，这通常是一件好事，它让市场看到有如此大投入的人，从而增强了信心。

This is like it's it's one of those things, like, when, you know, you see Michael Saylor out there buying lots of Bitcoin and, you know, people trying to front run him and, like, it it's it's generally a good thing, and it's it's putting confidence into the market to see, you know, somebody that's got that much skin in the game.

所以我认为总体上是积极的。

So I think generally, it's positive.

我认为如果他继续增持，达到百分之五、六、七，甚至接近百分之十，那他们持有的比特币数量确实会开始让人有些担忧。

I think if he keeps going up and he keeps getting to, like, you know, five, six, seven, up towards 10%, I think it does actually start to become a little bit concerning just how much Bitcoin they own.

但在这部分，我主要关注的是，MicroStrategy 是最大的企业 treasury 公司。

But but in this section, mostly what I'm looking at here, MicroStrategy is the largest, you know, treasury company.

他们持有接近 3.5% 的比特币供应量。

They've got, like, almost 3.5% of the the supply.

而我在这里真正想说的是，人们对于他们持有 3.5% 的供应量感到些许担忧，这是合理的。

And really what I'm looking at here, I mean, I think it's reasonable for people to to be a little concerned with the fact that they have 3.5% of the supply.

他们的平均成本大约在 7.5 万美元左右，并且他们的净杠杆头寸为 12%。

Their cost basis is at, you know, 75 k or so, and they have a net leverage position of 12%.

因此，我认为有理由去审视这一点，说：好吧。

And so I think it's reasonable to sort of look at that and say, okay.

那么，如果市场陷入严重的熊市，MicroStrategy 被迫清算其比特币持仓，这里的风险是什么？

Well, what is the risk, you know, here if we we if we end up in a really nasty bear market that that micro strategy, you know, really gets caught offsides and has to liquidate, you know, their their Bitcoin holdings.

我认为这个风险其实很低，我试着梳理一下我们应该如何看待这个问题。

I think this risk is is pretty low, and I tried to kinda lay out just how I think we should think of this.

但我认为最关键的是，MicroStrategy 并没有通过保证金借款来购买比特币。

But I think the main thing is that, you know, MicroStrategy is not borrowing on margin to to acquire Bitcoin.

所以，他们的持仓并没有什么具体的清算价格之类的东西。

So there's no, like, specific, you know, liquidation price or anything that comes with, you know, their holdings.

他们主要使用长期无担保可转换票据来进行这些购买。

They're using mostly long dated unsecured convertible notes to make these purchases.

因此，我认为看待这个问题的方式，应该是他们资产负债表上的股权价值相对于需要偿还的债务总额。

And so, really, I think the way to think about this is just the sort of equity value that that they have on their balance sheet relative to the amount of debt that needs to get paid back.

而只有当他们的债务与股权比率达到约8.3倍时，才会变成一个资产负债表问题。

And it only becomes like a balance sheet issue because they have about 8.3 x debt to equity on that.

如果比特币价格跌到大约8000美元，那才会成为问题，那可是大幅下跌了。

It becomes like an issue if Bitcoin trades down to, like, yeah, $8,000 or so, which is a big, big fall.

话虽如此，我预计加密货币推特上的大多数人不会去深入这些细节，一旦价格跌到5万美元左右，恐慌情绪就会开始蔓延。

With that said, I I expect, you know, most people in crypto Twitter won't go into all this nuance, and you'll just start to see the FUD spreading if if we start to hit, like, 50 k or so.

而且，我觉得这种情况可能会成为我眼中的一个极端底部信号，

And, like, I could see that being, like, like, an extreme bottom signal to me where

每个人都在惊慌，说迈克尔·赛勒要亏惨了。

everyone's freaking like, oh, Michael Saylor's underwater.