比特币6万美元关口的考验变得更加严峻

好的。

Alright.

欢迎收看本期报告。

Welcome to the report.

今天我邀请到了来自DeFi报告的迈克尔·纳多。

I'm here with Michael Nadeau from the DeFi report.

本周瑞安·西恩·亚当斯休假，由我来代班。

I'm stepping in for Ryan Sean Adams who is on vacation this week.

他下周一就回来。

He will be back next week.

不过迈克，这周能由我来主持真是太好了，因为市场最近有不少动态值得聊聊，而你正是最合适的人选。

But Mike, I am glad that I'm here for this one this week because there is some action in the markets to talk about, and you're the guy

市场确实有不少动静。

that I wanna talk to.

市场确实挺热闹的。

There is definitely some action in the market.

大卫，你这次顶上来的时间选得真不错。

You took a good week to to step in here, David.

在我们刚连线的时候，我就说了，这真是我见过的市场最让人着迷的时刻，尤其是市场内部的分化程度。

And, you know, before we just hopped on, I said, you know, this is, like, the most fascinating time in the markets I I've ever seen in terms of just the dispersion in the market.

我觉得昨天比特币在本轮熊市中经历了第二次恐慌性抛售，同时还有其他资产在这个环境中逆势上涨。

I think, you know, that was really the second capitulation we've seen from Bitcoin in this bear market yesterday, and there's other assets that are rising in this environment.

我们投资组合里有三只资产昨天涨幅相当可观。

We had three assets in our portfolio that were up significantly yesterday.

这种情形我以前从没见过。

This is something I've never seen.

这让本轮熊市对投资者来说变得格外艰难。

It's making this bear market really, really challenging for investors.

某种程度上，对一部分人来说没那么痛苦，但对另一些没抓住这些上涨资产的人来说，可能反而更难受。

I think in some ways less painful for some investors, but also potentially more painful for others that maybe aren't catching some of these other assets that are rising in this in this environment.

今天要聊的内容真不少。

So a lot to get through.

我知道大家都在猜，我们是不是已经见底了，接下来走势会怎么样。

I know everyone's wondering if if we've bottomed and kinda where what the outlook looks looks like here.

所以我们得好好梳理一下手头的数据。

So we've got a lot of data to get through.

很期待马上开始

Excited to get

来聊这个。

to it.

这正是我想知道的。

That is exactly what I am wondering.

咱们慢慢来，一步步说清楚。

We're gonna slow roll our way there.

咱们先聊聊这个周期。

Let's talk about the cycle.

过去两三轮周期里，不管我入行多久了，都是整个加密市场全线下跌。

The typical way that this plays out for the last two or three cycles, however long I've been in crypto, is that everything in crypto pukes.

比特币跌得最少，以太坊跌得多一点，其他所有币都暴跌，然后人们纷纷离场，你再等一阵子，就会发现有些代币悄悄上涨，在没人注意的时候悄悄发力，因为95%的人都已经走了。

Bitcoin pukes the least, ether pukes a little bit more, and then everything is just down so bad, and then people leave, and then like you wait a little bit more, and then you start to see some tokens go up and make some moves in the bear market secretly silently under everyone's noses because 95% of people left Yeah.

在比特币反弹之前，在以太坊回升之前，已经有一些代币开始动了。

Before Bitcoin recovers, before Ether recovers, some tokens move.

对。

Yeah.

现在的情况是，比特币正在下行，周期似乎正在轮动，如果我们看比特币的图表，现在大概在六万六千美元附近，最近一段时间确实也在这附近徘徊过。

What is happening now is Bitcoin is on its way down, the cycle appears to be cycling, we are seemingly may maybe we're we're kind of like, if you look at the Bitcoin chart, we're at 66,000, We've been there somewhat recently.

今年二月我们在这儿，四月也在这儿，所以也许我们还在底部，也可能还会再跌一点，我也不确定。

We were there in April, we were there in February, so maybe we're still at the bottom, maybe we go to down more, I don't know.

但在熊市这么早期的阶段，其他代币就 aggressively 突破历史高点，这太不寻常了。

But like, it's so early in the bear process to see other tokens down market, breaking all time highs, like, aggressively.

我觉得你说的就是这个，这确实不一样。

And I think that's what you're talking about is, like, this is this is different.

没错。

Yes.

你看，像Lighter这种币，最近几周的表现明显在突破。

Like, clearly, things things like breaking out, like like, just looking at, like, what's Lighter's been doing over the over the last few weeks.

还有Hyperliquid、Zcash、NEAR，以及一些和AI相关的币种，比如BVB，它们都在动。

Obviously, what Hyperliquid has been doing, what Zcash has been doing, what NEAR and some other AI adjacent coins like BVB.

这确实不一样了。

So it is this is different.

我从来没见过这种情况。

I've never seen this.

这是Lighter的走势图。

Like, here here's the lighter chart.

比特币的走势根本看不出有这种表现。

The Bitcoin chart is nowhere near anywhere expressed here.

光看Lighter的图，完全猜不到比特币正在下跌。

Like, you could never tell that Bitcoin is going down by looking at the high chart.

NEAR的情况也是一样。

And you can do the same thing with NEAR.

对吧？

Right?

正如你刚才说的，比特币下跌在这张图上根本看不出来。

As you just said, it looks like Bitcoin going down is not showing up in this chart.

没错。

Right.

我觉得，这其实有两种解读方式。

And I think, you know, there's there's like two ways to interpret this.

一种是，加密市场正在成熟，那些有明确基本面向、叙事正确、处于热门赛道的项目，表现就是更突出。

I think one is that, you know, this is the crypto markets are maturing, and things that have clear fundamentals, that have the right narratives, that are in the right sectors are just outperforming.

投资者也越来越精明了，不再觉得所有币都会跟着大盘一起涨。

And investors are just becoming a little more sophisticated that there's other stuff, and it's not just a kind of rising tide.

以前是水涨船高，现在不是了。

You know, it rises all boats.

这是其中一种理解方式。

So that's one way to think of it.

另一种看法是，那些表现突出的领域，可能还沉浸在狂欢中，根本没意识到潮水正在退去，但这其实挺好的。

The other way is, like, these are these these areas that are outperforming, like, the these areas of the market are sort of just still drunk or something, and they haven't gotten the memo that the tide is going out, and and it's good.

迟早会把所有东西都拖下去。

It's gonna pull everything down.

这正是我目前看待这个问题的方式。

And that's kind of, like, how I'm trying to to think about this.

加密货币市场里还有其他一些领域，我们一直关注，也实际做了投资，它们已经经历了长达十二到十八个月的深度熊市。

There are also other sectors of the crypto markets that we've been writing about that we've actually been making some investments in that have actually been in, like, a deep bear market for twelve to eighteen months or so.

现在市场上发生的事情，真是五花八门。

So there's, like, all kinds of stuff going on out there.

如果你是个投资者，我觉得挑战在于，过去熊市里你很容易就认定，只要比特币触底，整个市场都会跟着见底。

And I think the challenge, if you're an investor, and I think it's almost been too easy in past bear markets where you could sort of anchor to this idea that most most of the space is gonna bottom after Bitcoin, you know, hits its macro low.

我们刚进入这次熊市时，也是这么想的，但我的看法确实已经变了。

And that was kind of our view coming into this bear market, And I certainly evolved the thinking on this.

我觉得有些资产其实已经见底了，哪怕比特币还会再创新低。

I think there are assets that have actually already bottomed even if Bitcoin actually goes to a lower low.

当然，我们现在看到的像 HYPE 和 Zcash 这样的项目。

And, of course, we're we're seeing, like, just stuff like HYPE and Zcash.

我们得看看这些资产的炒作会不会慢慢退潮。

We will see if, you know, if that ultimately kind of recedes and the tide comes out on these assets.

我目前还没有特别明确的看法。

I don't have a really, really strong view on this just yet.

关于投资组合管理的事，我们后面再聊。

We can kinda get to kind of portfolio management later.

不过现在的市场确实太有意思了。

But, yeah, just really, really fascinating markets right now.

咱们先回头把背景理一理。

So let's just go back and set some set some context here.

迈克，我记得上回我们聊这个，才过去四周左右。

Mike, I remember the last time we did this, it was like four weeks ago.

对。

Yep.

我记得你刚把比特币卖了，正好赶上伊朗战争，大概在七万三千美元左右。

I think you had just sold Bitcoin right into the Iran war, something around like 74, $73,000.

比那还低一点。

A little less than that.

低一点？

A little less?

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

对。

Yep.

七万零七十二美元吧，就这么说。

$70.72, call it.

对。

Yep.

然后比特币就涨到了八万二，我当时还挺看好的。

And, you know, Bitcoin then ripped up to 82,000, and like, I was kinda bullish.

心想，哎呀，就算打仗，价格还在往上涨。

Was like, man, like, despite the war, things are going up.

迈克，这到底是怎么回事？

Like, Mike, what's

怎么回事？

going on?

你当时干了什么？

What did you do?

对。

Yep.

现在我们又回到六万六了。

And then here we are at 66,000.

你从稍微猜错，变成了稍微猜对了。

So you went from a little wrong to a little right.

我可不会说你完全对。

I'm not gonna give you say that you are super right.

我觉得，你要真说完全对，那比特币还得再跌一波。

I think in order for you to be super right, we actually need Bitcoin to, like, have another leg down.

它其实已经把二月以来的所有涨幅都吐出来了，但还没跌破二月的低点，现在又开始碰到二百日均线和二百周均线了。

It kinda has just capitulated all of its progress that it's made since February, but it hasn't gotten any lower than February and it's starting to run up against the two hundred two hundred day day, two hundred week two hundred week moving average.

对。

Yep.

今天二百周均线在六万一千八百美元附近。

So the two two hundred week moving average is coming in 61,800 today.

明天会再高一点，而比特币现在是六万六千美元。

It'll be a little bit higher tomorrow, and Bitcoin is at 66,000.

没错。

Yeah.

你觉得比特币会对二百周均线有什么反应？

What do you think Bitcoin does with regards to the two hundred week moving average?

你觉得价格会在那里反弹吗？

Do you think it bounces off it?

你觉得会跌破那个位置吗？

Do think it goes below it?

你对这个怎么看？

What what are your thoughts there?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

说到刚才那个卖出操作，说实话，我觉得那是我犯的一个错误。

Just to come back to that sell, I I think I'm I'm chalking that up as a mistake, to be honest.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

好吧。

Okay.

我当初卖那支股票的时候，并没有亏钱，实际上昨天我又基本买回了它。

When I when I made that that sell, didn't lose money on it, and I actually kinda basically repurchased that yesterday.

但我确实觉得，那段时间我有点儿跟市场节奏对不上，不过好在我们还是坚持了数据给出的信号。

But I do think, you know, I sort of was offsides on the market for a brief period there, but but fortunately, we kinda stuck to what the what the data was saying.

市场最终还是转头向下。

Things things did roll over.

要像你说的那样，我真正对的话，就得等到可能进入这些深度价值区域的时候。

And for me to be really right, like you said, we need to kinda go into, like, potentially these deep value zones.

我觉得深度价值区基本上就在二百周均线以下，现在这根线大概在六十一七左右吧。

And I think I think deep value is basically below this two hundred week moving average, which I think it's at, what, 61.7 or

六十一八。

sixty one eight.

对。

Yeah.

六十一八。

Sixty one eight.

所以这个是在上升的。

So so that is rising.

对吧？

Right?

随着时间推移，这本来就是一个移动平均线。

As as time goes, it's it's a it's a moving average.

上一轮周期里，我们曾跌到200周均线以下30%。

And in in the last cycle, we dropped 30% below the 200 Yeah.

周均线。

Week moving average.

幅度不小。

Meaningfully.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这种情况完全可能发生。

So this can certainly happen.

而且我们现在离那个位置已经很近了，你知道的。

And the fact that we're there, you know, we're getting close to it right now.

我正在想的是，我们到底能深入到什么程度，关于市场结构的问题。

What I'm trying to think through here is just, how much you know, we we can get into market structure.

今天报告里其实已经有一些市场结构的数据了。

We got some market structure data in the report today.

我们可以聊聊这些数据，同时还得开始考虑策略方面的情况，看看信心会不会进一步动摇。

We can get into that, and then we also need to start to think about the what's going on with strategy and just potential for, like, confidence starting to, you know, erode further.

对我来说，这才是关键所在。

And that that to me is the key thing here.

这本质上是一场信心的游戏。

This is a confidence game.

比特币是一种由共识驱动的资产。

Bitcoin is a memetic asset.

一旦信心流失，情况可能会迅速恶化。

When confidence leaves, it can be reflexive.

微策略在很大程度上推动了这一资产的上行反身性，但我们现在也面临它朝相反方向走的风险。

And micro strategy has played a role in creating re reflexivity to the upside for the most part for this asset, but we have a chance of seeing it go in the in the wrong direction here.

接下来我们会深入聊聊这些内容。

So we're gonna get into some of that.

我觉得，说真的，从历史经验来看，如果你在200周均线附近买入，那通常都是个绝佳的入场时机。

But I think, yeah, I think anytime, you know, historically, if you're buying near the two hundred week moving average, that has historically been a a fantastic entry zone.

前提是你要有耐心等。

If you have the time to wait.

而且正如你所说，我们现在看起来像是处在价值区域。

And as you said, we're not in it seems like we're in value territory

对。

Yes.

但我们追求的是深层价值。

But we're looking for deep value.

就这一周的情况来看，是否能触及深层价值，关键在于谁能回答这个问题：微策略会不会像它当初推动上涨那样，反过来也出现连锁式的退潮？

And I think as it stands for this week, deep value is whether or not we get to deep value is determined by whoever can answer the question, is MicroStrategy going to memetically unwind as much as it's memetically wound up?

没错。

Like Yep.

Sailor能重新赢得信心，还是这里已经显露疲态？

Is Sailor going to reestablish confidence, or is there weakness here?

我想打开这个周期图看看，不过在那之前，得先聊聊我们的合作伙伴Galaxy。

I wanna I wanna pull open this stretch chart, but first, we've gotta talk to our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY.

这是为机构投资者准备的，无论你是关注未来金融，还是想布局下一代工业革命的基石，Galaxy都是你必须了解的名字。

This one is for the institution, so whether you're looking at the future finance, or also just a backbone for the next industrial revolution, Galaxy is a name that you need to know.

他们不仅在数字资产领域稳居全球领先地位，还在支撑人工智能的关键数据中心基础设施方面占据重要位置。

They've established themselves as a global leader, not just in digital assets, but also in critical data center infrastructure powering AI.

Galaxy的独特之处，在于它如何将这两个领域无缝连接。

What's unique about Galaxy is how they bridge these two worlds.

他们既是数字金融的全栈平台，涵盖机构交易、托管和代币化服务，同时也在打造下一代工业革命的基础设施。

They are both a full stack platform for digital finance, including institutional trading, custody, tokenization, but they're also building the next generation industrial revolution.

他们建成了为AI和高性能计算优化的数据中心，比如Helios站点，已获批的AI电力容量高达16亿瓦。

So we've got a AI and HPC ready data centers, including their Helios site with 1.6 gigawatts of approved power on the AI side.

作为一家上市公司，银河在透明度和稳健性方面树立了行业标杆，这在加密领域实属罕见。

And as a publicly traded company, they are bringing leadership to a next level with transparency and durability that is rare in the crypto space.

如果你想了解银河如何帮助机构进行投资、建设和转型，不妨去官网看看。

So if you wanna see how Galaxy helps institutions invest, build, transform, go check them out.

详情链接在节目笔记里，bankless.cc/galaxy。

There is a link in the show notes, bankless.cc/galaxy.

好了。

Alright.

迈克尔，我这边调出STRC的图表。

Michael, I'm bringing up the STRC chart.

简单说一下背景，STRC是微策略旗下的股息型权益收益工具，年化收益率高达11.5%，回报非常可观。

Now, just for some context, STRC is micro strategy strategies, dividend paying equity yield instrument pays 11.5%, crazy good yield.

它的目标交易价格是100美元。

It's supposed to trade at 100.

一旦价格超过100美元，该策略就可以发行更多份额。

If it trades above 100, strategy is allowed to issue more stretch.

如果价格低于100美元，理论上市场或者公司本身都应该把价格推上去，但只要偏离100美元太远，就是我们需要关注的异常情况。

If it trades below, in theory, the market's supposed to bid it up or strategy itself will bid it up, but anytime it trades too far away from $100 is a dislocation that we need to look at.

过去确实出现过几次这种偏离。

It has been dislocated in the past a few times.

去年十一月，价格一度跌到90美元。

Back in November, it traded all the way down to $90.

今年二月，又跌到了93美元。

Back in February, it traded down to $93.

两次都是后来又回到了100美元。

Both times, it resumed trading at 100.

最近比特币走弱，MSTR也跟着疲软，再加上Micro Strategy刚卖了32个比特币——虽然数量不多，但象征意义很大，让市场信心受挫。

With the weakness in Bitcoin, and also the weakness in MSTR, and also the loss of confidence from the fact that Strategy just sold 32 Bitcoin, a small amount of Bitcoin, but a symbolically large statement.

现在STRC的价格是95美元，比历史高点低了5%。

Stretch is now trading at $95, so 5% off of all time highs.

我要说，虽然这次偏离5%比过去几次偏离100美元的幅度要小，但现在的STRC规模已经大得多。

I will say that even though this number, 5% off, is lesser than the instances of when Stretch has traded off a $100 in the past, Stretch is bigger now.

现在市场规模更大了，市值也更高了。

There are more there's a larger market cap.

他们已经发行了大量Stretch，所以负债也更大了。

They have issued plenty of Stretch, so the liability is larger.

迈克尔，你目前关注哪些信号，能反映比特币价格对Alpha的影响？

So, Michael, tell me what you're watching here for just signal in terms of Alpha with Bitcoin price.

是的。

Yeah.

你看那条向下的红线，我的理解是，Stretch持有者在说：我们需要更高的收益。

So, you know, that the red line going down there, the way I sort of think about that is, like, that is basically stretch holders saying we need more yields.

他们觉得11.5%的收益率根本不足以补偿当前的风险。

We don't think the 11.5% is compensating for the rest.

他们对你们的现金状况、比特币价格，以及市场信心感到不安，开始担心自己拿不到回报。

We're get we're we're feeling nervous about this situation with your with your cash position, with the price of Bitcoin, the confidence in the market, and we're starting to worry that we're not gonna get paid.

所以，为了吸引更多的投资者，收益率必须提高。

And so for him to draw in more investors, that yield needs to come up.

我觉得如果这个数值降到80左右，那就真有点像信用事件了。

I think if that thing comes down to, like, 80 or so, that's when it starts to look more like a credit event.

不过呢，这种策略背后的整个循环，我们以前在节目里也聊过。

But I think, you know, this this whole sort of, you know, loop that that strategy, we've talked about this before on the show.

当市场对比特币这个资产有信心的时候，他能轻松进入市场筹资，然后拿钱去买比特币，这事儿其实挺厉害的，简直好得不像真的。

It's it's kind of like an impressive thing, and it's almost too good to be true when there is confidence in Bitcoin, the asset, that he's able to just go into the market and and raise capital, go out and buy Bitcoin.

接着比特币价格上涨，他就能发分红、再筹更多资金、继续发分红。

And then Bitcoin just goes up in price, and then he's able to pay dividends and and raise more equity and pay dividends.

那些拿分红的人简直惊呆了，说：天啊。

And the people in the dividend holders are like, oh, oh my god.

我拿现金居然能拿到11.5%的收益。

I'm getting 11.5% on cash.

这简直好得离谱。

Like, it's, like, too good to be true.

这里面其实藏着很多自我强化的机制。

And and there's a lot of reflectivity baked into that.

这完全取决于大家对比特币的信心。

It's really based on confidence in that whole in in Bitcoin.

但这次，我们第一次看到这种信心开始动摇了。

And for the first time, we're seeing this, you know, come under come under fire here.

我觉得他现在处境挺棘手的。

And the you know, I think the way that I'm thinking about it is he's in a pickle.

这说明他可能在融资能力上走得有点太远了。

I think he this is an example of, like, just probably just going a little too far with with his ability to raise capital.

要是回溯几个月前，那时候比特币的看涨理由就是索勒尔在市场里大举买入，很多人都说已经跟上了。

This you know, if you if we go back a few months, this was the bull case for Bitcoin at the time, and people were saying we had already bought on because Sailor was in the market and buying.

但现在情况完全颠倒过来了。

And so that is that is completely reversed.

2022年的时候，我们还没有这些优先股之类的资本结构。

Back in 2022, he was not we we didn't have these preferred equity, you know, parts of the capital stack.

那时候就只是MSTR的股东，再加上他们资产负债表上的债务。

It was just, you know, really the MSTR holders and then the debt that they have on their books.

现在的情况是，他不得不从MSTR股东那里拿走资本结构中的一部分。

What's happening now is he's he's in a spot where he actually has to take from his MSTR holders one part of the capital stack.

他卖比特币的时候就是这样，我知道他只卖了32个比特币。

That's what when he sells Bitcoin, and I know it's only 32 Bitcoin that he sold.

他一卖出这些比特币，就降低了MSTR股东每股持有的比特币数量，然后把这些比特币作为股息分给了STRC股东。

When we when he sells that, he's reducing Bitcoin per share for MSCR holders, and then he's giving it to, you know, STRC holders as as dividend payments.

所以对我来说，关键问题是——我敢肯定，Strategy那边的作战室现在正忙着讨论，因为他们得搞清楚，这举动到底想向市场传递什么信号，事情最后会怎么发展。

So the the question for me here is and I'm sure that the war room over at Strategy is is going right now, and they're they're trying to figure out because this is a lot of this is about signaling to the the market and and how how things are gonna shake out.

我觉得他们卖这32个比特币，可能就是为了先放个风出去，让市场有个反应。

I think the reason they did the 32 Bitcoin was kind of to just put it out to to so that it's out there and the market market

消化一下这个消息。

digest it.

消化一下这个消息。

Digest it.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

因为如果他们直接拿出十亿美金之类的，可能会引发类似银行挤兑的连锁反应。

Because if they came right out and did a billion or whatever, then that could just kick off like a a bank run type of dynamics.

所以我觉得这正是他们的用意。

And so I think that's sort of what they're doing.

不清楚的是，他们到底可能要卖多少比特币？

What is unclear is, you know, how much Bitcoin could they have to sell?

我觉得，这很大程度上取决于那张图表的走势。

And that, I think, really, a lot of that depends on what that chart does.

比如，如果那张图表回升到100，就说明大家其实没我们想象的那么紧张。

Like, if that chart just comes back up to par with a 100, it's telling you people are not as nervous as maybe we think.

人们还是喜欢这个收益，可能仍有需求。

And people still like that yield, and there's maybe demand for that.

那样的话，他就可以继续发行更多。

And then he can go in and issue more of it.

然后比特币可能反弹，大家很快就忘了这回事。

And then maybe Bitcoin recovers and, like, people forget about this pretty quickly.

看空的情况是，价格没有像我们希望的那样快速回升，逼得他不得不出来表态：嘿，

The the bear case, I think, is that that does not come back as as quickly as we hope, and it just starts to force him to you know, then then he has to come out and say, hey.

我得再卖一些比特币了。

I have to sell some more Bitcoin.

这时候，那条红线就会跌得更厉害，这种恶性循环到底会变成什么样？

And then what happens is that red line start going down more when when that happens, and, like, what does this potential doom loop look like?

是的。

Yeah.

问题是，Sailor的行动太明显了，因为他能用的手段已经不多了。如果价格再跌，跌到像90以下这种吓人的水平，

And the problem with this is, like, sailors moves are so telegraphed because he has reduced optionality here, so if stretch goes down even more, if it gets to a scary number like below 90 Yep.

这就向市场和所有持有比特币的人发出了信号：瞧，Sailor，这个最大的比特币持有者，也得卖币了。

It's signaling to the market and everyone else who's holding Bitcoin is like, yo, like Sailor, the largest holder of Bitcoin has to sell Bitcoin Yep.

而且他卖得比你慢。

And he's gonna move slower than you.

所以你现在就可以按下卖出按钮，抢在Sailor前面出手，因为他得为自己的stretch仓位融资，而这又是一个你根本说不准会停在哪儿的自我强化的下跌螺旋。

And so you can hit the sell button right now and get in front of Sailor's selling because he has to finance his stretch position, which again, is just like a a memetic downward spiral that you don't really know where that ends.

对。

Yep.

没错。

Yep.

这正是问题所在，而且上涨时也是一样的过程。

That is that is the issue, and that's a similar it's the same process on the way up.

对吧？

Right?

大家在上涨时也会提前埋单，抢在他们前面。

People are front running them on the way up.

是的。

Mhmm.

所以这就是核心难题。

So this is the this is the the challenge.

我的意思是，从资本结构来看，他们并不是用保证金借钱。

I mean, I think when I think about just the capital stack, it's not like they have they're they're borrowing on margin.

对吧？

Right?

所以并不存在什么强制平仓线，像他们的持仓之类的。

So it's not like there is, like, a liquidation level for, like, their their holdings or anything like that.

这更像是一场信心游戏，而这一切都是由这个STRC产品引发的。

It's more just this confidence game, and this is really just being introduced by this STRC product.

这个东西在某些时候或许能帮上忙，但眼下看，它很可能会拖累市场。

So that is you know, this thing is sort of can help you at at times, but it's it's looking like it's gonna potentially hurt the markets.

没人能预测接下来会怎样。

And don't think anybody can predict how this is gonna go.

这完全要看外面的市场情况。

I mean, it really just depends on the conditions out there.

最坏的情况是，他们一季度末报告有21亿美元的现金及等价物，但随后Sailor出来偿还了一部分可转换债务。

I think the worst case scenario is so they reported 2,100,000,000 in cash in cash equivalents at the end of q one, but then Sailor came out and paid down some of their convertible debt.

他们现在的现金储备大约是8.71亿美元，足够支撑六个月左右的股息支付。

So their cash position is, like, 871,000,000 right now, and that's about six months of, like, kinda runway on these dividend payments.

我觉得他想抢先一步，卖一些比特币，把两年的股息资金备齐，类似这样的操作。

So I think he's trying to get ahead of it, sell some Bitcoin, shore up two years worth of dividend payments, something like that.

如果他做不到这一点，可能就得持续抛售来平抑市场情绪，把STR图表重新拉回100点，那样的话，这问题或许才能慢慢缓解。

And and maybe this this can start to go away if he's unable to do this, and he has to just keep selling to kinda calm the markets and and and get that that that STR chart back to a 100.

这可能会涉及他持仓的2%到3%，体量不小，很可能足以引发市场的恐慌。

It could I think it could look like potentially two to 3% of his holdings, which is significant, and it's probably enough to really spook the markets.

我们开头不是聊过吗？接下来会往哪儿走？

And I think, you know, we talked at the intro, like, where where are we going?

我们是不是已经入手了？

Have we bought them?

在我看来，这正是那种深入价值投资的时机。

To me, this is the scenario where you go to these deep value Yeah.

一边是可能突然崩盘的叙事风险，一边又想抄点便宜货，说实话，我也不确定。

The difference of buying a little bit of value while there's a potential precipice of a memetic unwind, I I don't know.

这里明显有个深价值的投资机会。

There's like a very clear case for deep value here.

没错。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

确实有这种感觉。

It feels that way.

如果真有这种感觉，我昨晚还想到另一点，就是我们在关注像Zcash这样的项目。

If it it does feel that way and like the the other thing I should mention that I was just thinking a little bit about last night is like, you know, we're watching things like Zcash.

我觉得Zcash在这个市场里挺有意思的，虽然我没具体数据，但感觉确实有一批加密原生用户。

Like, I think Zcash is, like, interesting in this in this this market right now because I it seems to me, and I don't have data on it or anything, but it does seem to me that there's, you know, pockets of crypto natives.

他们可能是以太坊的持有者。

Maybe they're ETH holders.

也可能是比特币的持有者。

Maybe they're Bitcoin holders.

也许他们是原本持有其他币种，现在转投Zcash的。

Maybe they're sole holders that are allocating to Zcash.

如果比特币真的陷入某种生存危机，老一代比特币持有者开始转向Zcash，那情况就变得有意思了。

And so this gets interesting if Bitcoin's having some sort of existential crisis and, like like, OG Bitcoiners are, like, getting out and going to Zcash.

这确实也挺值得关注的。

That's that's interest that's interesting too.

这种情形我们以前从未见过。

It's something we've never seen.

比特币历来都是领头羊，是市场的王者。

Bitcoin has historically been the the alpha, the king asset.

它一直都是这样。

It always has been.

我并不是说这种情况会改变，但可以设想一下，如果形势真的恶化，那这里就出现了一种竞争格局。

I'm not suggesting that that's gonna change, but something to, you know, kind of entertain that, like, if it gets really bad, then that's kind of the the type of setup here where there's competition in the market as well.

所以确实如此。

So Yeah.

而且这还不算

And that and that's not

更别提量子计算了，那也是另一个值得考虑的因素。

even to talk about anything about quantum, which is just like another valid other variable.

一个变量的时候还好，但两个变量就不同了，确实如此。

And it's it's one thing when there's one variable, but two variables Yep.

你知道的，一加一有时候能等于三，就是这种感觉。

You know, one plus one equals three in in kind of the the in the in the sense.

没错。

Yep.

再说Zcash，它的走势挺奇怪的，但要是看看VVV，就能发现它和这个趋势是一致的。

And like, again, if you look at Zcash, like, it's it's kinda got this wonky chart, but it aligns with, like, let's just look at VVV, for example.

势头非常强劲。

Like, incredible momentum.

再比如NEAR。

Let's look at NEAR, for example.

加密货币里有太多代币，2026年全年都值得讨论它们的势头。

Like, there are so many tokens that we can talk about in crypto that have momentum for all of 2026.

对。

Yeah.

还有哪些别的例子？

What what's another one?

HYPE 到目前为止是最明显的例子。

HYPE is like the biggest example so far.

HYPE 的势头简直太疯狂了。

Just like the momentum of HYPE is insane.

自二月以来，它的涨幅已经达到了150%。

It is up a 150% since February.

是的。

Yep.

就像我们之前说的，比特币和主流币下跌的情况，根本没体现出来。

And like we were saying earlier, the fact that Bitcoin, the majors are down is just not showing up.

主流币在下跌，而其他代币却在上涨，势头正旺。

And so you have majors with momentum downwards, and you have other tokens with momentum upwards.

我觉得这种势头能持续很久。

And it seems like this momentum has longevity to me.

现在确实有这种感觉。

It it feels like it right now.

现在确实有这种感觉。

It feels like it right now.

现在感觉

It feels

就是这么回事。

like it right now.

说不定这就是高点了。

Maybe that's the top.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

你永远也说不准。

You you could never know.

对。

Yeah.

而且我这个人比较反主流，通常更喜欢逆着大流来。现在网上很多大账号，尤其是X平台上的，都在说这是个四资产市场，所有东西都在你刚才展示的那些图表附近盘整，看起来有点泡沫。

And and I I tend to you know, I'm kind of a contrarian, and I always, like I I'm typically more comfortable going against the crowd, like, there is be there has become this sort of narrative or, I would say, just general view out there coming from a lot of, like, bigger accounts on on x and stuff that this is, like, a four asset market and everything's consolidating around basically, the charts that you just showed there, that looks frothy.

我最近一直在仔细看Zcash，想弄清楚它现在是不是纯粹的投机标的。

I've been I've been looking hard at Zcash and trying to figure out, is it is it a speculative thing right now?

这会不会只是像我在……

Is this just like I'm

确实，这纯粹是投机行为。

certain it is a speculative

这会儿就是投机。

thing right now.

我觉得两者都有。

Well, I think it's both.

我觉得，如果你看看未平仓合约，再看看那种资金疯狂涌入时常见的景象，你确实能在这儿看到类似的情况。

I think I think you have like, if you look at open interest and you just look at kind of what you would see from, like, a really kind of, like, hot ball of money type situation, like, you're seeing that there.

但同时，你也看到屏蔽式Zcash的供应量在上升，而且确实有一些现货买入的迹象。

But I also think you're seeing, like, the shielded Zcash supply rising, and you're seeing like like, there's definitely some, like, just spot buying.

如果有人是从其他资产转过来的，那大概率是长期资金，我觉得是这样。

And and if people are coming over from other assets, that's probably long term capital, I I would think.

所以我觉得两者都有，而且我一直在密切留意，因为确实存在一种可能：比特币持续疲软，其他资产也没怎么回调，而Zcash反而突破了。

So I think it's a little bit of both, and this is something I'm I'm kinda watching pretty closely because there is a world, like, the world that you're bringing forth here where where Bitcoin just stays weak, these other things actually just kinda don't don't don't roll over whereas Zcash actually breaks out.

对吧？

Right?

它已经好几次尝试冲击历史新高了。

It's it's kinda made multiple attempts to get up to the to all time highs.

如果真能突破，那就是从长达十年的盘整区间里冲出来了。

If it breaks out, that's a that's a breakout from, like, a decade long sort of level there.

所以这值得重点关注，也是我一直在密切观察的方向。

So something to something to keep an eye on and something I'm watching pretty closely.

当然。

Certainly.

当然。

Certainly.

我们来聊聊比特币的资金外流吧，这又是另一件在不断加码的事情。

Let's talk about Bitcoin outflows because this is just another thing that's kind of just adding on to the pile.

比特币现在简直是被各种因素围攻，四面楚歌。

It's just like a Bitcoin is in it's getting dog piled by things left and right.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你看5月15日以来比特币的资金外流数据，每天的流出金额都在1亿到7亿美元之间，这一页上最高的单日流出达到了7亿美元。

There if you just look at the Bitcoin outflows since the May 15, every single day, there is somewhere between, like, 100 and I think the highest one on this page is 700,000,000 million dollars of outflows daily.

过去十五天左右，累计外流金额大概在30亿到40亿美元之间。

And so, like, over the course of the last, like, fifteen days, it looks like something like 3, maybe $4,000,000,000 of outflows.

没有一天是正向的。

Not a single green day.

这到底怎么回事？

What's going on here?

对啊。

Yeah.

情况不太妙。

It's it's not looking good.

如果你回溯两个月左右，那时候还是卖家在抛售，而ETF持有者都死握着不放。

This is, again, this is if you go if you just fast you know, go back two months or so, it was sellers buying and the ETF holders are diamond handed.

根本没人卖。

There's no sellers.

比特币这个周期的底部已经探明了。

Bitcoin's already bottomed for the cycle.

现在完全反过来了。

This is, you know, fully reversed.

而且没错，2026年的资金流现在已经转为净流出。

And, yeah, the the flows are now net net negative for 2026.

但即便如此，我觉得它还是表现得相当稳健。

And still, I would say still, you know, it's holding up fairly well.

比特币的总资产管理规模相比去年十月的高点，大概下降了5.6%。

The the total AUM in Bitcoin is down about, you know, 5.6% from the peak in last October.

所以它依然维持得不错。

So it's still, you know, still holding up well.

我们现在看到的主要是动能，我觉得背后可能有几方面原因在推动。

It's really just the momentum that we're seeing right now, and I think there's probably a couple things that that are driving this.

你知道的。

You know?

从宏观层面来看，我们依然面临通胀上升的局面。

We do still have, you know, a situation on the macro side where you have rising inflation.

我们知道，通胀对比特币其实非常不利。

We know inflation's really bad for Bitcoin.

要是回看2022年，那真是特别艰难的一年。

That's if you go back to 2022, that was a really rough year.

那时候通胀率很高。

That was a high inflation environment.

伊朗的战争还没结束，而且很多人可能已经淡忘这件事了，但之前释放的战略石油储备即将耗尽。

The war in Iran is not settled yet, and there's a chance that, you know, I think most people have sort of forgot about this a little bit, but there's you know, most of the strategic petroleum reserves that were released, of that's coming to a head.

石油专家会说，油价有很大可能会上涨。

The oil experts would tell you there's a decent chance that oil spikes up here.

油价一直在高低区间震荡，最近又回升了一些。

Oil oil keeps on ranging between its highs and its lows, and it's made some ground back up.

一周前它还处在低点，现在又反弹上来了。

It was it was lows about a week ago, and now we're trading back up again.

所以，这明显还没定下来。

So, like, that is very clearly not settled.

事情还没解决。

It hasn't settled yet.

所以我觉得，如果你是机构投资者，比特币可能是你投资组合里风险最高的资产。

And so I think there's a chance that if you're an institutional investor and, you know, Bitcoin might be the riskiest thing, the farthest out on the risk curve in your portfolio.

如果你觉得我们正进入一个通胀上升、利率也可能上升的时代，那你很可能会抛售比特币。

And if you think that we're entering a an era where the inflation's rising, potentially rates are rising, you're probably gonna sell that Bitcoin.

所以我觉得这部分情况确实在发生。

So I think some of that's happening.

另外，我觉得还有一部分原因来自基差交易。

And then I think the other piece of this is the basis trade.

很多对冲基金会买入比特币ETF产品。

So a lot of hedge funds will buy the ETF products.

然后同时做空期货合约。

They will then short the futures.

如果期货市场上存在价差，他们就做空这个价差，这是一种delta中性的操作，从中赚取价差收益。

If there's a spread on the futures, they can short that, and it's a delta neutral move, and they'll they'll take that spread.

这可能也是推动市场的一个因素。

That could be driving some of it.

不过这种操作本身价格中性，不会真正对价格产生明显影响。

That's, like, kinda price neutral, though, so it wouldn't really, like, impact the price.