比特币的熊市已度过80%？还会迎来更低的低点吗？

欢迎收看这份报告。

Welcome to the report.

今天的问题是：熊市结束了吗？

The question today, is the bear market over?

是不是快结束了？

Is it almost over?

这感觉就像孩子在车后座不停地问。

I feel like it's that question the kids ask in the back of the car.

我们到了吗，迈克？

Are we there yet, Mike?

今天是2026年7月22日。

It is 07/22/2026.

熊市已经持续了九个半月。

We are nine and a half months into the bear market.

跌幅已经超过百分之三百。

There have been 330% plus drawdowns.

所以今天的问题是，熊市结束了吗？

So today's question, is the bear market done?

如果还没结束，接下来我们会看到什么？

And if not, what can we expect next?

在开始今天的分析之前，有几件事值得注意。

So a few things going on as we enter today's report.

主要的买家已经开始出手买币了，但力度够不够呢？

The top buyers, they're starting to cough up coins, but is it enough?

有一批人就是死活不肯放手。

There's one cohort that refuses to let go.

为什么迈克特别关注他们，以及他们接下来会怎么行动。

Why Mike has his eyes on that and what they're going to do next.

另外，我们还得考虑一些新出现的宏观风险因素。

Also, we've got some new emerging, let's say macro risks to weigh into the formula.

迈克对伊朗、乌克兰、关税、可能转向宽松的美联储都有看法，还有一个大胆的观点——AI投资热潮可能已经见顶了。

Mike has takes on Iran, Ukraine, tariffs, a hawkish Fed that might turn dovish, and also, and this was a spicy take, why the AI trade may have peaked.

所以我打算问他这个问题，当然别走开，结尾我们会聊聊接下来值得关注的关键比特币价格点。

So I'm gonna ask him about that, and of course stick around to the end, we'll do some key Bitcoin levels to watch from here.

有两个数字你要记住，待会儿我们会再回来讲。

Two numbers to remember, we'll come back to.

六万三和七万三，明白吗？

63 k and 73 k, okay?

记下这两个数字，到结尾我们会告诉你它们意味着什么。

Remember those numbers, we'll tell you what they mean by the end.

迈克，第一个问题给你。

Mike, opening question for you.

现在有人声称四年周期已经结束了，他们去年十一月和十二月就这么说。

There's people right now who have been calling the end of the four year cycle, they were doing that back in November and December.

但很多当初这么说的人，现在又改口了，说好吧，我们可能还有一轮下跌，之后熊市才算真正确认，然后也就结束了。

Many of those same people are now capitulating on that and are now saying okay, well we just have one more drawdown and then the bear market will be confirmed and then it'll be over.

在我看来，这种说法更像是随风倒的判断，纯粹是因为我们现在所处的价格位置看起来像那样。

To me it's kind of a weathervane type take, It's just because that's what it looks like at the price point that we're at now.

那我们能不能抛开这种风向标式的看法，你根据你看到的所有情况，说说你的真实判断？

So can you we get beyond maybe the weathervane take and can you give your opinion based on everything you've seen?

现在这场熊市已经过去了百分之多少？

What percent of the bear market is behind us now?

我们走到哪一步了？

How far along are we?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得可以参考过去的经验，熊市通常会持续大约一年左右。

You know, I think I like to anchor to the idea that the bear market is probably gonna take roughly a year or so as it as it has in the past.

所以我就是以这个时间框架为基准来判断的。

And so that's kinda what I'm anchoring to.

然后我们一直在跟踪数据、市场结构，还有我们一直关注的那些关键指标，看看实际情况是否吻合。

And then we've been, you know, tracking the data, market structure, all these KPIs we track through that to try to see if that's what's gonna line up.

从时间上看，现在熊市已经持续了九个半月，我觉得我们大概已经走完了80%的路程。

And I would say, you know, based on where we're at sort of time based, nine and a half months into this bear market, we're roughly 80% of the way there.

当我查看链上数据时——今天我们会详细过一遍——这些数据基本印证了我之前说的，我们大概已经走了80%的路程。

When I look at the On-Chain data, which we'll go through today, it's pretty much lining up with what I would say is roughly 80% of the way there.

这还挺有意思的。

So that's kind of interesting.

所以我还是想坚持这个判断。

And so I just I kinda wanna stay anchored to this.

我觉得我们现在正处于这个周期里一个特别关键的阶段。

You know, we're at a really interesting part, I think, of this cycle.

我们一直在调整投资组合，也抓住了一些不错的买入机会。

You know, we've been building out our portfolio, had some nice buy opportunities.

期间也经历了一些恐慌性抛售。

We've had some capitulations.

我们有机会加仓，现在正好可以停下来，好好想想下一步该怎么走。

We've had a chance to buy up, and it's a good time to kinda sit back and say, okay.

对。

Yeah.

很多在九个月前还看多市场的人，现在都转看空了。

A lot of the market that was bullish maybe nine months ago, and now they are bearish.

那我们是不是该调整策略了？

So do we need to start pivoting?

风险是不是反而在向上涨方向转移？

Is the is the risk shifting actually to the upside?

我觉得这正是我今天以及未来几个月最想探讨的问题：风险是不是真的在向上涨方向转移？这又意味着什么？

And I think that's the big question that I'm gonna be asking, you know, today and and through the next few months is is the risk shifting to the upside and what and what does does that mean?

宏观层面也有很多事情在发生，我相信我们这周会花点时间聊聊这些。

There's a lot going on in the macro world as well, which I'm sure we'll spend a little bit of time on this week.

所以，我很期待今天能深入聊聊这个话题。

So, yeah, excited to get into it today.

好的。

Alright.

我们开始吧。

Let's get into it.

过去七天我们小幅上涨，我觉得涨了，但具体多少我也说不准。

We are up a little bit over the last seven days, so I think we are up I don't know.

怎么说呢，过去七天整体算平盘，不过比起几周前的低点，还是涨上来了。

Well, it's kinda flat, I guess, the last seven days, but we are up from some of the lows we saw a couple of weeks ago.

比特币价格在六万五千左右，快到六万六了。

65 k, close to 66 k Bitcoin price.

你的资金配置已经超过了一半。

You are more than majority deployed.

你提到比特币的价格曾经长期在或低于你设定的六万五公允价值区间。

You make the point that Bitcoin has traded at or below your 65 k fair value call.

你一直都说，从我们开始做这个节目以来，六万五就是比特币的公允价值，而过去四十七天里，价格确实一直在这个水平附近波动，今天报告发布前也刚站上这个价位。

That's what you've said historically since, I don't know, the full time we've been doing this, that that was the fair value of Bitcoin, and we have seen forty seven days where we've traded under that, just above fair value going into today's report.

咱们聊聊主要的指标，你最近观察到什么变化？

Let's talk about the main KPIs and what you're seeing there.

对。

Yeah.

你所说的周期状态更新。

A cycle awareness update as you call it.

我们现在看的是这些关键指标的图表，大部分已经进入买入区域，但并不是全部。

So we're looking at a chart of the high level KPIs coming into buy zone for a lot of these, though not all of them.

这说明了什么？

What is this telling us?

我觉得这差不多快到80%的那个水平了。

This is kinda getting to that 80% figure, I would say.

你提到过，我们已经触及了65000的公允价值目标。

So you mentioned, you know, we've been we've we've hit that 65 fair value target.

今年我们已经连续47天交易价格低于这个水平了。

We've actually traded below that for forty seven days already this year.

我回头看了2022年的数据，如果当时公允价值是2万左右，那我们差不多在那个价位停留了107天。

When I went and looked back at 2022, which if we say fair value is roughly 20 k, we were at that level for about a hundred and seven days in the in 2022.

所以可能我们还有时间，或许还能等到更低的估值机会。

So we may have some more time here, potentially an opportunity to get to get deep value.

不过我觉得，所有这些关键指标都表明我们现在正处于买入区间。

But, yeah, I think all those KPIs are indicating we're in the buy zone.

我们已经进入了公允价值的范围。

We're in that fair value territory.

也许还没达到过去熊市里那种极端水平，但我的感觉是，我们确实已经到那儿了。

Maybe we haven't gotten to, like, the extreme levels that we've seen in some of the the past bear markets, But it it feels to me like, you know, we're we're there.

我反复想到的还是，我们已经完成了80%。

We're we're 80% there is kinda where I where I keep coming back to.

唯一让我稍微犹豫的是，当你看实际资本的下降时——我们之前也讨论过这一点。

The one thing that gives me a little bit of pause is, like, when you look at the decline in the realized cap, and we've talked about this.

实际资本代表的是投入网络的总资本，我们一直关注它在牛市期间如何增长，又在熊市中损失了多少。

Realized cap is really kind of the aggregate capital invested into the into the network, and we wanted to be tracking sort of how that increases during a bull market and then how much of that capital gets destroyed in the bear market.

到目前为止，只有大约5.8%的资本被撤出。

And we've only seen about 5.8% of it come out just yet.

2022年的时候，撤出的资本接近19%。

Back in 2022, we had almost 19% of it of it come out.

所以，可能还会有更多的亏损需要兑现。

So, potentially, some more losses to be realized.

这并不意味着比特币非得跌到极低估值才会发生这种情况。

It doesn't mean that Bitcoin has to, you know, come into to deep value territory for that to play out.

更可能是一种时间型的抛售过程。

It can be more of a time based capitulation type thing.

我觉得市场结构上也正体现出这种时间型的抛售。

And I think I think that's kinda what we're seeing on the market structure side as well as really more of a, you know, time based capitulation.

我们一直关注那些顶级买家，看他们会不会把手中的币全部转给更长期的投资者。

We've been focused on, you know, these top buyers and whether or not they're gonna fully rotate their coins to stronger, you know, more long term investors.

从108k到126k这个买入群体来看，这种转变基本已经发生了。

And we've largely seen that play out, I think, when you look at the the sort of one zero eight to one twenty six k cohort of buyers.

他们是上一轮周期里最高位的买家。

That's, like, kind of the the peak buyers of the last cycle.

他们已经把大约52%的币转给了新的持有者。

They have passed roughly, you know, 52% of their coins to new holders.

所以我觉得，当我们往下看下一个成本区间——192到208千这个群体时，这种情况已经基本发生了。

So I feel like that's largely played out when we go one cost basis cohort below them to the one ninety two to a 108 cohort.

他们只把大约18%的币转移给了新持有者。

They have only passed about 18% of their coins to new holders.

而这个数字最近一直在缓慢上升。

And this is where, you know, that number has been creeping up.

大概六周前，这个比例还只有10%左右。

It was about 10%, you know, a month, six weeks ago.

所以这个数字确实在慢慢往上走。

So that's that number's creeping up.

我觉得这就是时间型抛售的体现，我预期这个比例会升到二十多，甚至可能冲到三十多，因为随着这种时间型抛售持续，市场再出现一次回调，更多人就会撑不住了。

And I think that's the time based capitulation where I'm looking to see that number probably move up into the twenties, possibly get into the thirties as people you know, as this time based capitulation drags on, we see another drawdown.

我觉得人们开始放弃坚持了，去年我们聊过的那种愿景，突然间变得模糊了，而这恰恰为有长期眼光的人创造了绝佳的入场机会。

I just think I just think people start to give up and and and the, you know, the the the vision for, like, what we were talking about last year is just harder to see all of a sudden, and it becomes a perfect setup for people with a longer term view.

所以，从市场结构和这些关键指标来看，我觉得80%这个数字基本是合理的。

So, yeah, I still think I mean, to me on the market structure side and these KPIs, it feels like that 80% number is about right.

真想跟那些买92到108K区间的人聊聊，问问他们为啥这么坚定地拿着，毕竟他们确实挺扛得住的，这有点出乎意料，也解释了为啥持仓成本没像以前那样下降。

Would love to talk to a lot of those 92 to 108 k buyers and ask them why they're so diamond handed because they have been pretty diamond handed, and that's been surprising and that's why they realized cap hasn't gone down in the way that we've seen previously.

如果你去问他们，你觉得他们会怎么说？

I wonder what they'd say if you asked them.

你为啥还死死攥着不放？

You know like why are you still holding on?

听上去他们还是对前景抱有希望。

They'd still have some faith it sounds like.

不过你觉得，随着时间推移，这些人会不会最终撑不住了？

But you think some of that might be broken on the shoals of time based capitulation, right?

现在都九个半月了，快十个月了吧？说不定都快十一个月了。

So we're nine and a half months what for the about ten months, what about eleven?

可能到十一个月、十二个月的时候，真正扛不住的人才开始出手。

Maybe eleven and 12, that's when the cough up starts.

我注意到，在这种熊市里，通常会出现两种类型的认输出局。

And it strikes me that there's two types of capitulation we tend to see in these bear markets.

一种是价格驱动的认输，就是那种让你胃里翻江倒海的感觉，对吧？

The one is the price based capitulation, just the stomach churner, right?

你正坐过山车，突然一个猛跌，速度快得让你惊呼：这也太狠了。

You're going down a roller coaster and just there's this dip and it's fast and it's like woah, this is too much.

另一种则是时间驱动的，熬不住时间的煎熬，这两种认输方式里，可能最后拖垮他们的就是后者。

But the other is just time based, duration, those are the two types of capitulation and maybe it's that that will get them in the end.

不过也有人会问，这一轮链上数据是不是跟以前不太一样了？

There's also though the question that maybe the on chain data is a little bit different this cycle.

现在有现货比特币ETF，有DAIS，还有MicroStrategy。

We have spot ETFs, we have DATS, MicroStrategy.

光是比特币DAIS持有的比特币就差不多有一百万枚，对吧？

I mean the Bitcoin DATS alone, they have about 1,000,000 of Bitcoin, right?

这比例可不低了。

That's that's a healthy percent.

那这个比例是多少？

What's that?

占总供应量的5%左右，大概是这样？

5% of supply, something like that?

对。

Yep.

56%。

56%.

对。

Yep.

会不会因为这个原因，我们这次看不到像以往周期那样实际资本化数值下跌？

Are you are maybe that's a reason we're not going to see the realized cap numbers go down in the way that we've seen in previous cycles?

有可能。

Possibly.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这个观点挺合理的。

I think that's a that's a fair take.

我的意思是，我觉得接下来的痛苦会少一些，这就是我想表达的。

I say I think I would expect to see less pain is sort of how I'm referring to it.

市场正在变得成熟。

The market is maturing.

也许那些持有9万到10.8万枚代币的人正在看这个节目，或者读DEFI报告。

Maybe some of those 92 to one zero eight k holders are are watching the show or reading the DEFI REPORT.

他们只会继续持有，不会动。

They're just gonna they're gonna hold on.

所以我也说不准。

So I I don't know.

我觉得市场会随着时间越来越成熟，未来的最大回撤也会更温和一些，我觉得会是这样。

I think the market is becoming more sophisticated over time, and I expect the sort of max drawdowns to be, you know, a little more subtle, you know, as we go.

我确实预期会这样，但还是觉得，可能接下来还会有一些波动。

And I'm I'm expecting that, but I still think, you know, there's probably there's probably a little more pain to come.

你说到点上了，我们这个周期里确实已经经历过几次这样的阶段了。

And I think you you hit it on the head with just where we've had these periods already in this cycle.

我们已经经历过那种深度回撤了。

We've had the the sort of deep drawdowns.

对吧？

Right?

跌幅高达百分之三十五的调整。

35% corrections.

它们发生得特别快。

They happen very fast.

价格像一根长影线一样骤跌。

It's a it's a wick down.

这是彻底认输的表现。

It's capitulation.

我们现在进入周期的这个阶段，不会再出现那种V型反弹了。

We're now in the part of the cycle where we're not getting those, like, v shaped recoveries out of it.

对。

Mhmm.

如果价格开始涨到70左右，有些人就只想退出市场了。

If we start to see a move up to 70 or so, some people just wanna kinda get out of the market.

他们觉得，好吧。

They feel like, okay.

他们已经把部分亏损补回来了。

They've recouped some of their losses.

咱们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

我觉得比特币的走势很大程度上是心理因素驱动的，我们知道这是因为比特币缺乏坚实的基本面支撑，最后就变成了一种群体情绪的传导。

I think I think so much of Bitcoin in the way that it trades is is psychological, and we know that a lot of the reason for that is Bitcoin doesn't have the fundamentals that you can fall back to, and it just becomes this kind of memetic thing.

它靠的是故事在交易。

It's trading on narratives.

一旦大家看空，就只想赶紧抛售。

People get bearish, and they just wanna sell.

这纯粹是心理作用。

It's a psychological thing.

就是感觉你非得赶紧退出，具体会怎样，咱们走着瞧吧。

It feels you know, you just feel like you gotta get out, and we'll see.

咱们看看接下来六十到九十天，要是市场继续走弱，会不会真出现这种情况。

We'll see if if that starts to play out over the next, you know, the next, you know, sixty to ninety days if if we see more weakness, you know, in the market.

咱们往前推一推看。

Let's project that forward a little bit.

你这儿有个图表。

So you have a chart here.

这是比特币的实际亏损相对于实际资本总额的变化。

Bitcoin realized losses relative to changes in realized cap.

这个比率从2018年到2020年最差的时候，再到熊市第287天——也就是我们现在所处的位置——都追踪过。

This is a ratio when you track this ratio from 2018 and 2020 at its worst, and then also two hundred and eighty seven days into the bear market, which is where we are right now.

我们现在正处于2025到2026年熊市的第287天。

We're two hundred and eighty seven days into the 2025, 2026 bear market.

目前这个数值是27%。

And so right now, this number is 27%.

假设它没回到以往牛市的高点，那就说明趋势就是这样了，你也基本接受这个可能性。

Let's say it doesn't get all the way to the highs of previous markets, and that would be the trend, and you're kind of accepting that that is is likely.

假设它涨到你报告里说的，从27%升到32%到35%这个区间。

Let's say it gets into what you say in the report is this, from '27 to this '32 to 35% range.

对。

Yep.

你能把这个比例换算成价格吗？

Can you convert that into price?

从比特币价格的角度来看，这个实现市值会对应什么区间？

What what would that realized cap equal from a just like a price range perspective in Bitcoin?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得它有可能升到这个低三成的区间，因为过去几个周期里，这个指标在熊市最后三个月通常会上涨25%左右。

I think, you know, and the reason I think it could get into that sort of low thirties range is is we've seen this this number in past cycles move up about 25%, you know, in the last kind of quarter of the of the bear market.

所以我觉得这种情况是有可能发生的。

So I think it is possible that we could see that.

要从这个区间预测价格就有点难了，因为很多在高位买入的持有者可能会在这个价位卖出，而其他投资者觉得估值合理，愿意接盘，这未必会引发新一轮的大规模抛售。

Forecasting the price out of that is a little little bit trickier because a lot of these holders that bought in at higher levels can be selling, you know, in these in these ranges where other investors are happy to buy in fair value, and maybe it's not another capitulation move.

所以关键还得看会不会再出现一次恐慌。

So it depends on if we see another scare.

对吧？

Right?

这次熊市会以类似FTX那样的崩盘，或者另一轮大抛售告终吗？

Does this bear market end with an FTX style thing or another capitulation?

我觉得如果真出现这种情况，比特币价格可能会跌到55000美元以下，甚至可能下探到50000美元。

I think that's where we get to potentially deep value below 55 k BTC, maybe maybe down to 50 k.

如果我们没再经历一次大抛售，那最糟糕的时候已经过去了，超卖状态和悲观情绪也都见底了，价格可能就会在合理估值附近震荡，大概在六万到七万美元之间来回波动。

If if we don't have another capitulation, we've seen the worst and we've seen the worst of the oversold and and and the sentiment, then this could just be something where we bounce around kind of around fair values, sit between $60.70 k or so.

有些人想割肉离场，他们亏损的金额占之前涨幅的比例还在持续上升。

Some people are selling and they wanna get out, and that realized loss, you know, is is increasing as a percentage of of the prior increase.

但如果没有出现那种大幅下探的长下影线，熊市可能就以这种方式慢慢结束了。

But we don't get the huge wick down and that's kind of how the bear market ends.

这其实就是熊市最终结束的方式。

And, you know, that is sort of how bear markets ultimately end.

关键就看我们会不会再来一次调整了。

It's just a matter of if we do have another one another correction, correction, you you know, know, to to come.

来吧。

Come.

过去几周我们一直在讨论一件事，这让我突然想通了：在看到成交量之前，我们其实无法确认熊市真的见底了。

One thing that we've been talking about the the last few weeks and this is kind of a light bulb moment for me is your idea that we don't have a bottom confirmation of the bear until we start to see volume.

这种成交量会体现在比特币ETF的需求、现货交易量和永续合约上，我这里放了不少图表，但说实话，这些图上的成交量都特别低。

And we would see that volume in ETF demand for Bitcoin, in spot volumes, in perps, you know, include a lot of charts here that just like frankly doesn't show volume.

几乎没什么波动。

It's pretty flat.

对。

Yep.

整体来看，市场交投相当清淡。通常在市场底部，我们会看到资金轮动，也就是筹码不断易手——那时候卖的人多，但买的人也会开始出现。

It's fairly pretty muted, And generally, at the the bottom of these markets, that coin rotation, the changing hands type aspect that we'd see, we'd see a lot of sellers, but we'd also see some buyers.

你看这些图表，ETF、现货、永续合约，你觉得为什么需求还没出现？它又会怎么回来？

When you look at the charts, ETF, spot, perps, what's your explanation for why demand isn't here and how it returns?

我有个想法，对精明的买家来说，现在六十多的价格其实还不够便宜。

One thought I might have is, well for smart buyers, it's just frankly not cheap enough in the sixties.

他们可能得看到五十左右才会动心。

They need to see fifties maybe.

也许得跌到真正价值洼地，他们才会觉得这是天价便宜，必须入手。

Maybe they need to see the deep value territory before they step in and say this is a screaming steal, we gotta buy it.

没错。

Yeah.

不过也可能有别的原因，你觉得需求为什么迟迟不来？又是什么会让它重新出现？

Maybe there are other reasons though, why do you think the demand isn't here and what brings it back?

这是周期的问题。

It's the cycle.

你知道的，这本来就是一个周期。

You know, it's a cycle.

这其实涵盖了我们讨论的所有内容。

It's it's kind of everything we we talk about.

现在系统里的信贷非常少。

There's not a lot of credit in the system right now.

目前也没有多少人愿意去投机。

There's not a lot of demand to speculate right now.

就连你看AI领域的发展，很多资金其实已经从加密市场撤出，转而去炒AI了。

There's you know, even when you look at sort of what's happened on the AI side and the AI trade, I think a lot of capital left or left the kind of crypto area wanted to go to to trade AI.

也许现在这种趋势正在反转，我们可能正进入一个整体风险偏好下降的阶段。

And, you know, maybe that's kind of rolling over when maybe we're heading into a a period where there's a little bit of a risk off across the board.

但我认为这其实是很自然的现象。

But I think I think it's just kind of a natural thing.

人们总是追逐那些上涨的图表，而加密市场的图表已经下跌很久了。

People chase what the charts that are going up, and the charts have been going down on the crypto side for a while.

所以大家也就慢慢淡忘了。

And so people just kinda forget.

他们把加密货币给忘了。

They forget about crypto.

让我惊讶的是，熊市一来，人们情绪一悲观，叙事就突然全变了。

It is amazing to me how the narratives just all of a sudden turn in bear markets when people get bearish.

人们甚至纠结于：这些东西到底有什么实际用途？

Like, there's no use like, people struggle for, you know, what's the use case of this stuff?

这种转变真让我觉得不可思议。

And it just amazes me how that happens.

我觉得大部分原因都是心理因素。

And I just think a lot of it's psychology.

当行情上涨时，我们平时聊的那些未来愿景，看起来都特别清晰。

And when the charts are going up, it's, like, so easy to see this future for all these things we talk about all the time.

可一旦行情下跌，人们的想象力就瞬间枯竭了。

And when they go down, people's imagination just just really dries up.

所以我觉得，这不过是人性的自然体现，也是市场周期里一贯的反应。

So I think it's just it's just the nature of human human behavior and and kind of how it plays out in in the cycles.

关于宏观和AI相关的投资话题，我想问一个问题：全球投资者似乎很难同时关注多种资产类别。

There is a question I wanna get to when we talk about macro, about kind of the AI trade, and there's almost an element where it's almost like investors in the world can't focus on multiple asset types at the same time.

你还记得吗，去年底到今年初，大家全都在关注黄金和白银，整个市场都围着这个主题转，后来才慢慢转向AI。

So do you remember Yeah.

所以你难免会想，AI这个热潮是不是得先冷却一下——不是彻底消失，但至少得沉寂一阵子，其他资产类别才有可能重新点燃市场的热情。

Like at the end of last year and into early this year, was all about gold and silver and that trade, the whole world was focused on that, then it's just kinda moved into AI, and so you sort of wonder if the AI trade has to go dormant, not necessarily die, but at least go a little sleepy and dormant in order for another asset class to kind of pick up the animal spirits again.

是的。

Yeah.

你对这个也有看法，我们待会儿再聊。

You have a you have a take on that too, we'll get to.

还有一件事一直让我放心不下，想顺手提一下：小规模的恐慌性抛售。

One other thing that's been nagging me that's just something to tick off the list is minor capitulation.

对。

Yep.

2026年我们还没看到过小规模的恐慌性抛售，但以前的市场都出现过。

We haven't seen minor capitulation in 2026, we have in all previous markets.

那为什么不会呢？

Does that why why not?

你需要看到这种迹象才能确认吗？还是说现在就是这样了，你根本没指望矿工们会认输？

Do you need to see that for a confirmation or is this kind of just how it is now, you don't expect to see capitulation from the miners?

这正是我在关注的事情。

It's it's something I'm looking for.

我们一直在跟踪，这里有一张图表，对比了2022年的情况和现在看到的走势。

So we're we're tracking it, and we have a chart here looking at what happened back in 2022 versus kinda what we're seeing today.

我不确定非得看到才行，但如果真看到了，比如矿工们开始承受压力，我会更有信心。

So I don't know if we I don't think we have to see it, but I think it would help me develop more conviction if I did see that, you know, miners kind of came under pressure.

算力真的承受了很大压力，那时候所有典型的信号都会出现。

The hash rate really came under pressure, and we sort of see all the signs that you look for.

我其实更想在矿工板块看到的是，熊市里通常都会出现整合。

I mean, really kind of what I'm looking for from the mining space is, like, you tend to see consolidation, right, in in in bear markets.

那些无法以低成本用电的矿工，最终只能关掉机器，甚至可能抛售比特币来维持运营。

The miners that are unable to mine at cheap at at really cheap energy costs end up having to shut off their machines, possibly sell Bitcoin to if they wanna keep their operations going.

有些矿场会被资源更雄厚的大矿主收购，毕竟在熊市里，大矿主更容易融资和获得资金。

Some of them end up being acquired by larger miners who have more resources, are able to finance and get access to capital in in a bear market.

所以我正等着看到这类情况开始发生。

So I'm looking for some of that to start start playing out.

我觉得这种情况已经在发生了。

I think it is playing out.

我们已经看到算力下降了大约百分之十五，之后就稳定下来了。

We've seen the hash rate come down about 15% or so and kind of steady out from there.

咱们走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

这确实是我在密切关注的一个动向。

I mean, I'm definitely something I'm tracking.

这还引出另一个问题：矿工们是不是变得更精明了？

It's another thing where you have to ask, like, are the miners getting a little more sophisticated?

对吧？

Right?

他们有在少量抛售吗？

Are they selling a little bit?

我们看到不少抛售行为。

We saw a lot of selling activity.

你看那张图中间，差不多是上一轮牛市刚开始的时候，看起来他们上一轮被套得挺惨，所以这次牛市一开始就很乐意卖了。

You can see in the middle of that chart in kind of, like, the beginning of the last bull market, and almost looks like they got burned last cycle, and they were happy to sell maybe a little early in the last bull market.

如果他们资金足够雄厚，能扛住下一轮调整，我们本该看到一些迹象，但现在还没看到。

So, potentially, you know, they're they're capitalized at a level that they can kinda withstand another correction, we don't see it.

不过不管怎样，我一直在留意这件事。

But something I'm I'm I'm looking for, you know, regardless.

迈克，其实这次我们可能看不到这种现象，是因为AI领域对比特币挖矿和数据中心建设的需求非常大。

Mike, there's another reason actually why we may not see it this cycle and why this time it's different is because there is a lot of demand for Bitcoin mining and that infrastructure and data center build out coming from the AI sector.

你可能会想，这种需求是不是让市场更有韧性，矿工们这次不会轻易认输。

And you wonder if that demand has caused some strength into the market where they're not going to capitulate as hard.

很多比特币矿企甚至已经转向了AI领域。

So many Bitcoin mining companies have even pivoted to AI.

当比特币价格下跌时，他们把部分基础设施建设转向了人工智能，这可能是原因之一。

They're supplementing some of their infrastructure build up towards AI as Bitcoin goes down, so that might be part of the story.

而且，这次确实不一样。

That and that genuinely is different this time.

同意。

Agree.

这是策略问题。

Strategy.

我们不妨看看迈克尔·塞拉的动向。

We just have to take a peek at Michael Saylor.

你今天的报告里提到了这一点。

You have this in today's report.

当然，MSDR最近有卖出行为。

There's there's been some selling, of course, MSDR selling.

几周前，Strategy公司曾大规模抛售比特币。

A couple weeks ago, there was a big Bitcoin sale from Strategy.

我唯一的问题是，你对Strategy和Saylor的举动感到担忧吗？还是说，这其实只是他逐步平仓杠杆头寸的平稳过程？

My only question is, are you concerned with anything that Strategy and Saylor are doing or is this basically what a graceful unwind of some of his leverage type positions?

这就是事情的本来面目吗？

Is this what it looks like?

他只是在平稳地退出吗？

Is he just gracefully unwinding here?

我希望这确实是平稳退出该有的样子。

I I hope it's, you know, this is what the graceful unwind looks like.

我有点意外，STRC产品没有上涨，也没能靠近面值。

I I've been a little bit surprised that the STRC product hasn't traded up or traded closer to to par.

现在它的价格大概在87左右，而面值是100。

It's I wanna say it's around 87 or so right now and, you know 100?

面值就是100。

Par being 100.

所以，持有或潜在持有SCRC的人似乎在说：你给的收益率根本不足以补偿风险，因此这东西只能折价交易。

So it's kind of like these SCRC holders or or future potential holders saying, you know, this what you're paying, the yield you're paying on this is not compensating us for the risk, and so, therefore, we're this thing's gonna trade at a discount.

这个产品上市一年多来，还是头一回在这么大的折价区间里待这么久。

It's been it's been in this discount range now for the longest period since this product has been in the market, which has been about a year or so.

所以，我们也就是顺带提一提这件事。

So, you know, again, you know, we've kind of just been bringing this up.

我们作为比特币持有者，一直在关注这个情况。

We're watching this as a Bitcoin holder.

对我来说，这更多是观察性的——看看Saylor会不会面临压力。

To me, this is just more something to watch and to see if Saylor comes under pressure.

董事会已经授权了12亿美元的比特币出售额度，他们主要靠增发MSTR股票来补充现金流，好支付股息。

The board has authorized 1,200,000,000 of Bitcoin sales, which they've they've largely been shoring up their balance sheet and ability to pay these dividends by by by selling more MSTR shares.

现在他大概还有22个月的缓冲期来支付股息。

He's got about twenty two months of runway now to pay the dividends.

如果他一直这样维持下去，手头还有两年半的余地，那我本来预期SCRC的价格应该会慢慢向面值靠拢。

And so, you know, if he keeps kinda bringing that up and he's got two and a half years or so, I I would kind of expect that SCRC to start closing towards par.

所以现在没往这个方向走，确实有点让人担心；如果比特币接下来继续走弱，我估计SCRC的价格也会跟着往下掉。

So it's kind of a maybe a little concerning that it's not, and then we'll see, you know, if we do have more weakness from Bitcoin, I would expect that to, you know, be expressed in the SCRC chart as well.

也许西勒尔被迫在不太好的时机抛售更多比特币，这可能就是我们即将面临的宏观风险。

And and maybe Saylor gets forced to sell more Bitcoin, you know, at a bad time, and maybe that's what, you know, we're gonna get into macro risk.

你懂的。

You know?

未来几个月，宏观风险、西勒尔的压力，还有投资者可能因时间推移而认赔，这些因素似乎正在慢慢汇聚。

You could sort of see this potential collision of macro risk, Saylor, you know, people maybe, you know, time based capitulation starting to kinda come together here in the next few months.

但这跟我没关系。

But, yeah, it's not for me.

这更多是MSTR持有者的问题，他们在熊市里一直被不断稀释。

This is more of an issue for MSTR holders who have just continued to be diluted, you know, in this bear market.

所以你对这个策略和西勒尔的态度是黄灯，不是绿灯，但也还没到红灯。

So you're kind of yellow light on strategy and sailor, not green light, but also not red light.

听起来你是打算继续观察局势，对吧？咱们也来聊聊当前水里的风险，从宏观角度看，问题还真不少。

You're just going to monitor the situation, it sounds like, from week Let's to talk about some of the risks in the water, and there seem to be a lot when you take a look at macro.

先说伊朗，我觉得市场一直在几个叙事之间来回摇摆。

Starting with Iran, I feel very much like the market keeps like oscillating between a couple of narratives.

一方面，有人觉得最坏的时候已经过去了，事情会好起来的。

On the one side, you get people saying the worst is over, like it's going to be fine.

对。

Yep.

另一方面，也有人认为这是一场持久战，冲突根本不会结束。

On the other side we get people saying this is a forever war, where it's like the conflict is never going to end.

有时候，从一个月到下一个月，市场就在这两种极端之间来回摇摆，感觉现在原油价格的走势就是如此，乱七八糟的，我真搞不懂到底发生了什么。

And sometimes month to month the market will oscillate between these two extremes, feels very much like that's what you're seeing in the oil charts which are all over the place, and I can't really understand what's going on here.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

从一开始，我的看法就是，这事儿特别乱。

My view on this really from the beginning is that it's it's really messy.

我不是地缘政治专家，但那边的利益关系太复杂了。

You know, we're not I'm not a geopolitical expert or anything, but there's just a lot of competing incentives over there.

那些停火协议什么的，之前有一阵子，市场根本懒得理这些事。

And, you know, all the ceasefires and stuff, it just it it just we we went through a period there where just markets were just not paying attention to this.

也许关键在于，人工智能相关的投资热潮完全盖过了人们对伊朗石油通胀等问题的担忧。

And and and maybe that is the takeaway is, like, this the the AI trade and sort of all of the excitement around that was just basically dwarfed any concerns that there you know, that were happening over in Iran with with with oil inflation and all this.

所以，我现在觉得这明显是新一轮的热战了，已经连续十天都在发生袭击和反击。

So, really, kinda the way I'm thinking about is, like, I think it's confirmed to me now that we're in another like, I'm calling it basically round two of the of the hot war that there's been ten, I think, straight days of of of attacks and counterattacks happening over there.

至于未来该怎么看，我觉得可以这样想：

And the way that I'm just trying to think about it moving forward is kind of like, okay.

到目前为止，发生了什么？

What has played out?

说到底，海峡通航的问题根本没解决，反而从二月开战以来变得更糟了。

You know, basically, nothing has been accomplished in terms of actually securing the straight, opening the straight, and and all that's probably gotten worse since this started February.

自二月以来，我们在抑制油价方面到底做了些什么？

You know, what have the mitigation what what have we done in terms of suppressing oil prices over since February?

如果局势继续恶化，海峡一直关闭，那些之前采取的应对措施还有意义吗？

And if this continues on and the strait remains closed, does it matter that we already took all those mitigation, you know, measures?

最终，我们会不会面临全球性的石油供应短缺？

And do we have a situation where we're actually gonna have, you know, more oil shortages around the world?

你知道，我觉得全球战略储备里其实有不少石油。

You know, I think we've we've there's plenty of sort of oil that's in strategic reserves.

我觉得这些储备遍布世界各地，大概还能撑三到六个月吧。

I think they you know, they're around the world, and maybe we have three to six months left of that.

但我能想象得到，我们现在正处在一种去全球化的进程中。

But I I can sort of foresee a situation where, you know, we're kind of in this, like, deglobalization process right now.

美国这边，我们已经看到航运路线改道了，很多人把油运到美国来补货，然后再分发到世界各地。

And the and The US is kind of like we've seen, you know, shipping rerouted and lots of people coming to The US to to fill up tanks, and then that's going to different parts of the world.

我担心的是，有些国家可能不得不暂停出口，这样一来，局势就会变得更紧张。

You know, I could sort of foresee a situation where certain countries have to actually, you know, stop doing exports, and then it just becomes a little bit more of a fight.

虽然全球石油总量可能还够用，但关键问题是，这些油未必在需要的时候出现在需要的地方。

And then, you know, there's probably enough oil to go around, but it's probably not at all in the regions where that needed at the time that they need it.

这样一来，情况就容易变得混乱起来。

And so things can start to get a little bit messy.

我就是在想，这种情况到底会变成什么样？

And I'm just trying to kinda think about what is what does this look like?

那各方的动机到底是什么？

What are the incentives of everybody at play?

我觉得这又是另一个风险。

And I just think it's another risk.

你知道的。

You know?

市场里又多了一个风险。

It's another risk in the market.

我觉得市场现在对此还挺淡定的，主要是到目前为止还没对股市造成太大影响。

I think the market seems to be complacent around this largely because it hasn't really caused a lot of problems in the equity markets so far.

但与此同时，六月份的消费者价格指数降到了3.5%，这让市场松了一大口气。

But at the same time, you know, the CPI came down to 3.5% in June, which kind of, like, was a big relief to the market.

这主要是因为汽油价格下跌了9.7%，而油价一直波动得很厉害。

That was really driven by gasoline prices dropping 9.7% because oil had oil has been very volatile.

一度跌到了每桶67到68美元，WTI原油。

Came all the way down, I think, to 67, $68 on on WTI.

现在涨到86了。

It's now up to 86.

所以我忍不住想，嗯……

So I'm kind of asking, okay.

如果之前CPI下降是因为油价跌了，那现在油价又回升了，

If the reason CPI came down was gas came down, now gas is going back up.

是不是意味着通胀又要抬头了？

Does that mean inflation's coming back up?

再加上美联储刚表态，说他们一定要把目标重新拉回2%，

And then, you know, we've got a Fed who has come in and said they wanna get back to 2% target.

这些因素都在慢慢浮出水面，成为新的风险。

So this is these are all the the risks that are starting to bubble up.

我明白你正在把这些点连起来。

I see the dots you're connecting here.

你今天报告里提到的一个有意思但令人担忧的矛盾，是能源市场。

And one interesting thing that feels like a despairous disparity that you pointed out in in the mar in today's report is the the energy market.

另外，我们或许可以补充一点这个情况。

And also, maybe we'll add to the story this.

你提到乌克兰和俄罗斯，乌克兰注意到，一旦控制了霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗就能对能源形成制约，而他们现在正加大对黑海地区俄罗斯能源基础设施的袭击；你还提到，俄罗斯首次开始从印度购买能源，这看起来有点反常。

You you make mention of Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine taking note of the chokehold you can have in energy from Iran when you control the Strait Of Hormuz, and they are they are increasing and ramping up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, and you also made note that for the first time, Russia is, like, actually purchasing energy from India, which seems a little weird.

所以，战争正在带来能源短缺的问题。

And so you've got this scarcity element that's coming through war.

与此同时，人工智能对能源的需求却在持续攀升，但目前能源板块在标普500中的占比只有3%，而在2008年，这个数字是18%。

At the same time, you have AI demanding more and more energy, and yet, and yet energy is currently 3% of the S and P five In 2008, it was 18%.

2008年的时候，既没有战争，也没有AI对能源的庞大需求，我们的能源占比却高得多。

So we were far higher in 2008 when there was no war, when there was not AI demand coming for energy.

我甚至在想，你有没有在能源市场做交易？因为这里明显存在一个巨大的矛盾。

I was almost wondering if you have a trade on, if you'd like like to get a trade on the energy market because that seems like a glaring disparity here.

是的。

Yeah.

我们现在只占3%，以前是18%，可就在供应在收缩的时候，能源需求却即将迎来一波巨大的冲击。

We were 3%, it was 18% before, There's gonna be a wall of energy demand at a time we have shrinking supply.

这背后是不是有什么门道？

Like, is there something here?

现在我稍微拉开一点距离来看，感觉这一切其实很明显。

It seems like a pretty obvious setup to me now, you know, as I kinda start to zoom out a little bit and look at all this.

那个3%的数据，我觉得很多人可能根本没意识到——能源板块在标普500里现在只占3%，而2008年的时候可是18%。

Yeah, that is a number I think probably a lot of people don't realize is, you know, that 3% of the S and P five five hundred in terms of the energy sector and that being 18% back in 02/2008.

所以，如果你把视角拉远来看，我感觉我们现在明显正处于去全球化的阶段。

So, yeah, I mean, I I think when you zoom out on it, what what it what it looks like to me in the setup here is, like, we are very clearly in a period of deglobalization.

过去二三十年，我们在全球化这条路上可能走得有点过了。

We've got we've we kinda went too far maybe on globalization over the last twenty, thirty years.

现在很明显，整个格局正在发生根本性转变。

It's very obvious now that this is totally shifting.

我们正处在世界秩序重塑的中心。

This is we are in the middle of a shifting world order.

我建议大家去看看瑞·达利欧的观点，他关于中国如何看待当前局势、海峡局势以及未来走向的分析挺有启发性的。

I recommend people check out Ray Dalio put out a pretty pretty interesting, you know, kind of take on how China's perceiving this situation and what's happening in the Straits and and kinda how he's thinking about it moving forward.

但我们确实正处于去全球化的阶段。

But, yeah, you know, we're in a period of deglobalization.

这很明显会引发对能源的争夺。

That is, like, very seems very clear that that's going to create a fight over energy.

与此同时，人工智能的建设正在快速推进，能源需求也在同步飙升。

We have this this AI build out that's happening, all these all these demand for energy at same the time.

所以，看起来我们很可能正处于能源板块长期牛市的初期阶段。

So, yeah, it seems pretty clear that we may be at the very early stages of, like, a secular bull market for the energy sector.

那这到底意味着什么？

And, you know, what does that mean?

这对资产配置和未来市场的运行方式又会带来哪些影响？

What does that mean for asset allocation and just the way the markets are gonna are gonna work, you know, moving forward?

当然，这里还有其他风险。

There's other risks in the water here, of course.

你提到过关税问题，比如对加拿大加征的新关税，这事拖了很久，但现在正在升级。

You talked about tariffs, you know, new tariffs on Canada, of course, that's been lingering for a while here, but it's ramping up.