比特币的早期牛市？69,400美元测试

欢迎收听《报告》。

Welcome to The Report.

今天的问题是：我们正处于牛市初期，还是得熬过这个令人沮丧的九月一号？

The question today, are we in the early bull season, or do we have to get through a sad September 1?

和往常一样，我们请到了迈克·纳多参加播客，时间是2026年9月2日。

We've got Mike Nadeau on the podcast as usual to 09/02/2026.

现在距离那场逼空行情已经过去两周了，那波行情让比特币在四十八小时内暴涨了23%。

We are now two weeks removed from the short squeeze that propelled Bitcoin up 23% in forty eight hours.

自那以后，比特币一直保持坚挺。

And since then, Bitcoin has helped.

它的表现超过了纳斯达克。

It has outperformed Nasdaq.

也超过了黄金。

It has outperformed gold.

大家开始注意到这一点了。

People are starting to take notice.

本周，迈克尔·塞勒又开始买比特币了，这正是迈克上周预测的，现在真的发生了。

We have on the week, Michael Saylor back buying Bitcoin, something that Mike predicted last week, and it's just happened.

另外，币的换手情况跟2023年牛市初期时一样。

Also, coins are switching hands like they did in the early bull market in 2023.

所以今天的问题是，我们是否已经得到了确认，还是说我们正处于熊市的第十一个月？

So the question today, do we have that confirmation, or are we in the eleventh month of a bear market?

请听到最后。

Stick around to the end.

有一个数字需要记住。

There's one number to keep in mind.

那就是六万九千四百。

That is 69Point4 k.

我知道你会记住这个数字的。

I know you're gonna remember that.

为什么迈克认为这个数字是确认牛市初期的关键。

Why Mike thinks that number is key to confirming the early bull market.

迈克，上周是我们TDR播客有史以来的第一期节目，和全牛迈克一起。

Mike, last week, it was our first episode ever on the TDR Podcast with Full Bull Mike.

全牛迈克，风险偏好型迈克强势回归，而且上周你还把比特币更低低点的概率从65%降到了40%到45%。

Full Bull Mike, risk on Mike arrived in force, and last week, you also cut your odds of a lower Bitcoin low from 65% to 40 to 45%.

所以这周我得跟你确认一下。

So I gotta check-in this week.

TDR播客上还是全牛迈克吗？

Do we still have full bull Mike on the TDR podcast?

TDR播客上还是全牛迈克。

We still have full bull Mike on the TDR podcast.

我感觉投资组合现在处于风险偏好状态。

I'm feeling the the portfolio is in a risk on state.

所以当我们处于风险偏好状态时，我们就是全牛。

So when we are on in a risk on state, we are we're in full bull.

是的，我觉得现在是个非常有意思的节点。

So, yeah, I think very interesting spot.

自从我们看到那波23%的大涨之后，市场有点尘埃落定的感觉。

We've had the kind of smoke clearing a little bit since we saw the the huge 23% rally.

现在我们在分析很多成本基础数据，想看看目前的情况跟过去的熊市相比怎么样，特别是我们是怎么从上一个熊市走出来进入早期牛市的。

And right now, we're kinda going through a lot of this cost basis data, trying to see how things look currently comparing to, you know, past bear markets, of how we came out of the last bear market into the early bull.

有一些相似之处，也有一些不同，而且宏观方面还有很多事情在发生。

And there's some some similarities, some differences as well, and still a lot going on in macro as well.

所以我觉得这周我们肯定有很多可以聊的。

So I'm sure we've got plenty to talk about this week.

嗯，现在我们面临一个问题，就是今天是9月2号，而比特币在过去经历过好几个糟糕的9月。

Well, there's a problem facing us, which is now it is September 2, and Bitcoin has faced a number of ugly Septembers in the in the past.

你是不是说过，9月其实是比特币表现最差的月份？

Have you have you said September is actually Bitcoin's worst performing month?

对，一年十二个月里，9月是最差的。

Of all twelve months of the year Yep.

9月是持有比特币最糟糕的月份。

September is the worst month to hold Bitcoin.

确实如此，尤其是在中期选举年，我们现在就处于这个阶段，而且马上就要进入中期选举的高峰期了。

It is, and particularly in a midterm year, which we are in, and we are going into the the heat of midterm season here.

所以，是的，从季节性来看，九月不是个好时机，但你知道，这并不意味着历史一定会重演。

So, yes, September seasonally, not a great time, but, you know, it doesn't mean history has to repeat.

好的。

Okay.

所以我们得关注一下这个。

So we gotta check-in on that.

现在是牛市初期遇上九月，看看会怎么发展。

It's the early bull season meeting September and and see how this shakes out.

对。

Yep.

另外，在节目快结束的时候，我们得聊聊你投资组合里的一些盈利，因为这对TDR Pro的会员来说非常令人兴奋，在多个类别和多个方面都涨了不少。

Also, near the end, we gotta talk about some of your portfolio wins because that has been very exciting for members of TDR Pro, up big in a number of categories and a number of ways.

所以我很期待和你讨论这个，因为作为TDR Pro的会员，我非常高兴。

So I can't wait to discuss that with you because I am very happy as a TDR Pro member.

但首先，我们来聊聊这些群体和币的轮动，因为这次的速度可能比我们见过的任何一次都快。

But first, let's talk about the cohorts and the coin rotation because this is happening faster than we have maybe ever seen before.

这肯定比之前的周期要快得多。

It's certainly happening faster than previous cycles.

这个群体阶梯又变了。

The cohort ladder has changed yet again.

所以两周前，它达到了那个标记点，就是你以为比特币持有量会落在56到66k成本基础的那个群体。

So two weeks ago, it hit that check mark of where you thought things would land at the 56 to 66 k cost basis cohort of Bitcoin holding supplies.

他们成了供应量占比最大的群体。

They became the largest cohort in terms of percent supply.

然后我觉得上周它移到了66到78k，现在又到了78到92k这个区间。

And now and then it moved, I think, to the 66 to 78 k last week, and now it's at the 78 to 92 k mark.

所以币的轮动是往另一个方向走的。

So the coin rotation is happening in the other direction.

你指出，在2022年和2023年，这个过程大概花了，我也不确定，九十多天，差不多一百天吧。

You point out that in 2022, 2023, it took about, I don't know, over ninety days for this to happen, something like a hundred days for this to happen.

我们两周就完成了。

We just did it in two weeks.

我不得不问，这是不是太快了？

And I have to ask the question, like, is that a little too fast?

这让你紧张吗？

Does that make you nervous here?

难道不应该花更长时间吗？

Like, shouldn't this have taken longer?

这让我有点犹豫。

It gives me a little pause.

我大概就是这么形容的，因为确实不一样。

That's kinda how I I'm describing this because, yes, it is different.

我觉得主要的不同在于，当我们到达上一个周期顶部的那个群体，也就是56到66k的时候，在2022年我们到达类似的位置，大概是17到21k，我们停在那里，那个群体又继续增长了大约两个月。

And I think the main thing that's different here is once we got to that prior cycle top cohort, the 56 to 66 k, when we got to the equivalent space in 2022, which was about 17 to 21 k, we end we stayed there, and it and that cohort continued to grow for about two months.

所以这大概能让你明白，我们在周期低点停留的时间有多不同。

So it kind of gives you an idea of sort of the differences here in terms of how much time we spent kind of at the at the cycle low.

如果58.5千是周期低点，我们认为概率仍然支持这一点。

If 58.5 k is the cycle low, we we think the probability still supports that.

但如果是这样，那我们就是在快速冲过那个低点。

But if that was the case, then we're sort of speedrunning that low.

所以大约用了267天才到达那里。

So it was about two hundred and sixty seven days to get there.

之前的牛市用了376天，这和2018年的情况差不多。

It was three hundred and seventy six days in the prior bull market, which was in line with kind of what we saw back in in 2018.

所以我们是在快速冲过周期低点，然后又快速进入早期牛市阶段。

So we're kind of speedrunning, you know, getting to the cycle low, and then we're speedrunning sort of coming out of it into the the early bull.

我们回头看了看从熊市出来进入早期牛市时的情况。

We kind of went back and looked at sort of what it looked like when we came out of that that early out of the bear market into early bull.

而且，我们也在更快地推进这个过程。

And, you know, we're also kinda making that move faster.

你拉出来的这张图表显示的是50周移动平均线，历史上，一旦你突破它并把它变成支撑位，那就是早期牛市阶段的开始。

So this chart that you pulled up here, this is just showing the fifty week moving average, which historically, once you break that and sort of flip that into support, that's the start of the the early bull phase.

这种情况还没有发生。

We have that has not happened.

目前还没有得到确认。

That has not been confirmed just yet.

但在那张图表上，你可以看到我们正在逼近五十周均线，或者说至少非常接近了，而现在我们正在从那里回落。

But in that chart, you can see that we are pushing right into the the fifty week moving average, or at least we got very close, and now we're we're rolling off of it.

我觉得这大概是我预料中的情况，我们会涨到大约八万左右，五十周均线大概在八万一千二左右，而且它还在上升。

I think this is this is kinda what I expected to see was that we would kinda come up to 80 k or so, the the fifty weeks at about 81.2 k, I believe, and and it's rising.

但那个数字，其实，抱歉。

But that number or actually, it's sorry.

实际上它还在下降。

It's actually still coming down.

我们应该会看到它开始趋于平稳。

We should see it starting to flat out a little bit.

但通常你会先涨上去，测试一下，然后被拒绝。

But, typically, you'll kinda come up, test that, and then get rejected.

因为我们在一段很短的时间里涨了36%，我有点预期会在那个位置出现均值回归。

Because we made a 36% move over, you know, a very brief period of time, I'm sort of expecting mean reversion kind of at that level.

我们看看最终会落在哪里。

Let's see where we land.

我觉得这里的关键是200日均线，那才是真正的关键支撑位。

I think I think the key thing here is the 200 moving average is really the the the key support.

所以当我们在2020年、2023年初突破这个位置时，我们冲上去，然后被压回来了。

So when we kinda moved out of this in 2020 early twenty twenty three, we came up, got rejected.

但当我们回落时，我们守住了200日均线，这就是这里的关键水平。

But when we came down, we held the two hundred day moving average, and that's kind of the key level here.

那大概在7万左右。

That's about 70.

所以我预期这里会有一些震荡，你知道的，我们还得看看宏观情况。

So I'm kind of expecting some chop here, you know, and we'll kinda see we've got macro.

收益率方面还是有一些风险的。

There's there's still some risk with with yields.

油价在上涨。

Oil prices are rising.

Warner Rounds 似乎又开始有点升温了。

The Warner Rounds seems to be, you know, heating up a little bit again.

所以宏观方面还是有一些风险和混乱。

So there's there's kind of, like, some risks, some messiness on the macro side.

比特币和加密货币可能会受到一些影响，但我觉得关键是要看当我们跌到七十美元中低区间时，市场会如何反应。

Bitcoin, crypto may get caught up in this a little bit here, but the key thing I think that I'm looking at is how does how does it how do we react when if we come down into the mid to low seventies?

我们会看到大量买入吗？

Do we see lots of buy?

那里会有大量支撑吗？

Do we see lots of support there?

根据我和人们交流以及 DeFi 报告读者反馈的情况来看，我觉得投资者现在可能配置不足。

My sense from talking to people, from getting feedback from readers of the DeFi DeFi Report is that if anything, you know, investors are probably under allocated right now is kind of the sense that I get.

这让我更有信心认为低点可能已经出现，因为等等。

And that gives me it it gives me a little bit more conviction that the lows may be in because Wait.

等等。

Wait.

你觉得大多数投资者都认为这又是一次假动作？

You think most investors kinda think this is another head fake?

就像今年五月我们看到的那种假动作？

They sort of head fake that we saw in May of earlier this year?

我觉得大多数投资者预期，就像我们之前说的，几周前概率还指向可能更低的价格。

I think I think most investors expected it's sort of as we we were we were saying the probabilities were pointing to possibly a lower low even a few weeks ago.

而且我觉得很多人都有类似的想法，可能没有完全配置资金，还在犹豫现在是否需要完全配置。

And I think I think a lot of people, you know, had were of a similar mind and maybe did not get fully allocated and are still trying to figure out, do I need to be fully allocated right now?

所以我觉得，如果你看看那些想在低点全力冒险的人，我会说他们中真正在低点全力冒险的人比他们想要的要少。

And so I think the you know, if you just kinda look at the the people that wanted to be maybe fully risk on at the lows, I would say less of them are fully risk on at the lows than they want to be.

因此，可能很难再看到六万五或六万一的价格了。

Therefore, you know, it may be harder to to see, you know, mid sixties or low sixties again.

我们拭目以待，但这就是我在外面感受到的。

We'll we'll see, but that's just kind of the sense that I get out there.

明白了。

I see.

你觉得他们没有像TDR那样90%投入。

You expect they're not 90% deployed the way the TDR is.

他们没有，他们没有。

They're not they're not

对。

Correct.

是的。

Yep.

他们不是完全看多，对吧？

Full bull Mike, are they?

他们只是有点犹豫，可能这波行情让他们有点意外。

They're just kind of holding back a little bit, and maybe this move caught them a bit by surprise.

我们来聊聊这些数字吧，因为你刚才提到了一个，你说接近70，那应该是200日移动平均线，我记得。

Let's talk about some of those numbers because you just hit on one, you said it was near 70, that's the two hundred day moving average, I believe.

没错。

That's Correct.

69.4千，这是我们要讨论的一个移动平均线。

69.4 k, that's one moving average to discuss.

我们现在屏幕上显示的是比特币价格的五十周移动平均线。

The one we have on the screen right now is the fifty week moving average in the Bitcoin price.

你上次说，在2022年和2023年，一旦比特币价格突破五十周移动平均线，就确认了早期牛市阶段已经开始，而且你可以看到图表上的移动平均线刚好在价格下方一点点。

And you said last time back in 2022, 2023 that once Bitcoin price passed the fifty week moving average, we had confirmation that the early bull phase had begun, and you could see the moving average on this chart were just a tick below it.

现在的五十周移动平均线是多少？

What is the fifty week moving average right now?

那个价格点是多少？

What's that price point?

我记得是81.2。

81.2, I believe.

81.2，而我们现在实际上这周是下跌的，顺便说一下，比特币七天跌了1.4%，所以我们现在大约在77千，刚好略低于那个水平，正如你所说，触及了五十周移动平均线的上沿或下沿。

81.2, and we are now actually down on the week, by the way, the seven day, 1.4% on Bitcoin, so we're at about 77 k, so just a little bit below that, and as you said, ticked off the top of that or the bottom of that that fifty week moving average.

你能再详细讲讲2022年底和2023年初那50周均线的情况吗？然后跟我们现在的数字对比一下。

Can you talk a little bit more again about what happened with that fifty week moving average in late twenty twenty two and in early twenty twenty three and compare that to what we're doing now in kind of the numbers.

因为就像你说的，我们确实在突破之前碰了几次，突破之后就一直往上走了。

So because as you said, we did bounce off of it a couple of times before finally getting above it, and then after we were above it, it was just kind of sustained up only from there.

不是说历史会完全重演，但就算它有点相似，那这两次的情况怎么比较呢？

So not to say that history will repeat exactly, but let's say if it does kind of rhyme in this same way, how do how do these episodes compare?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，是的，回顾一下挺好的。做这个分析的时候，要记住我们假设58.5k是低点，然后我们就说，好吧。

I think, yeah, it's good to go back and look at this, and when we're doing this analysis, important to remember, we're sort of assuming here that the 58.5 k was the low, and then we're sort of, okay.

那跟上一个周期的情况怎么比呢？

How does that compare to the last how this worked in the last cycle?

六月，那就是6月30日。

June that would be June June 30.

30日。

Thirtieth.

那如果那是低点的话，我们现在大概已经过了六十天了。

So we'd be about sixty days removed if if that was was the low.

对。

Yeah.

关键是在22年那轮，我们花了三百七十六天才真正触底，也就是2022年11月21日。

The the key the way this worked in in '22, again, it took three hundred and seventy six days before we actually bottomed, so that was 11/21/2022.

所以花了一年多才真正到达比特币的低点。

So over a year to actually get to the the Bitcoin low.

然后在那之后九十二天，我们第一次触及五十周均线。

And then we made the first move at the fifty week moving average ninety two days after that.

所以我们现在大概过了六十天。

So we're we're we're about 60 out.

那时候是九十二天。

We were ninety two days.

我们花了更长时间才到那里。

We took longer to get there.

我们第一次尝试突破时确实被拒绝了，还经历了19%的回调，那大概持续了十八天多。

We did get rejected when we made the first attempt at it and actually had a 19% correction, and then then that was about over eighteen days.

关键的是，那次回调时我们守住了两百日均线。

The key thing there is when we had that correction, we held the two hundred day moving average.

所以那时候，你知道，那是个有趣的信号，表明我们可能会回去重新测试五十周均线，而我们也确实这么做了。

So that that was at the time, you know, that was an interesting indicator that we probably were gonna go back and and test that fifty week moving average, and we did.

那次19%的回调之后，只用了四天就反弹了24%，突破了五十周均线，然后基本上就一路飙升了。

It took four days after that 19% correction to actually rally 24%, move above the fifty week moving average, and and you're kind of off to the races at that point.

我的意思是，即使那时候，比特币的交易价格也在两万三千二百四十美元左右。

I mean, even at that time, Bitcoin's trading at $23.24 k.

所以如果你等确认信号，是的，你错过了。

So if you waited for the confirmation, yes, you missed.

你没在比特币处于极端低点时买入一万五到两万的比特币，但那确实是个好时机。

You didn't buy 15 to 20 k Bitcoin when it was at the extreme lows, but that was a really good time.

回头看，那显然是个买入比特币的好时机。

When you look back, obviously, that was a really good time to be buying Bitcoin.

我觉得很多人可能有点焦虑。

I think there's a lot of people that are maybe feeling a little anxious.

也许他们手里有些现金，想在低点进场。

Maybe they they had some cash and they wanted to get in at the lows.

也许那个时机已经过去了。

Maybe maybe that's passed.

但我觉得，保持那种富足的心态很重要。

But I think, you know, important to keep that abundance mindset.

你知道，这个周期我们才刚开始，后面还有很多机会。

You know, we're very early in this cycle, and there's a lot to come here.

机会多的是。

There's gonna be plenty of opportunities.

我真的觉得心态对投资者来说很重要，因为如果你总觉得自己错过了所有东西，就很难看到机会。

And I really think mindset is important for investors because it's hard to see opportunities if you're, you know, constantly feeling like you're missing everything.

所以事情大概就是这样发展的。

So so that's kinda how things played out.

就像我说的，我们这次有点像是在加速冲刺。

We're like I said, we're we're speedrunning this a little bit.

这个周期从高点跌到低点用了267天。

Two hundred and sixty seven days to the lows this cycle.

这比22年那次快了109天。

That's a hundred and nine days quicker than in '22.

所以这有点

So this is a little

有点可疑。

a little suspicious.

确实有点可疑。

It's a little suspicious.

我同意。

I agree.

我同意。

I agree.

所以，跌到低点的速度快了很多，现在冲向五十周均线的速度也更快了。

So 100 much much quicker to the lows, and now we're making the run at the fifty week moving average faster as well.

所以，我们大概从低点算起六十天左右，或者说比之前早一个月，就开始进入早期牛市周期，比2022年确立低点后快了大约一个月。

So we're, like, roughly sixty days from the lows or a month sooner that we're kind of making that move to into the early bull cycle about a month quicker than we did after establishing the lows in 2022.

所以确实有一些相似之处，但我觉得也有一些理由需要稍微谨慎一点，因为这次进展得有点太快了。

So definitely some some similarities, but also, I think, some reasons to have a little bit of pause with with how quickly this is kind of kinda moving.

但如果和2022、2023年相比，你可能会预期一旦触及五十周均线，当我们慢慢逼近它时，会出现反弹，确实，我们逼近了，而且看起来至少现在我们已经反弹了。

But if this compares to the 2022, 2023, then you might expect that bounce once we hit the fifty week, once we're creeping up to it, and indeed, we crept up to it, and it seems like we have bounced at least right now.

对。

Yep.

2022、2023年那次反弹，在周期中同样的位置，再次假设低点是在，你知道的，对。

The previous bounce in 2022, 2023 at the same sort of juncture in the cycle, again, assuming lows were, you know Yep.

6月30日，对。

June 30 Yep.

不是下跌19%，对吧？

Wasn't 19% down, right?

对。

Correct.

所以我们在九月可能会看到类似的情况。

And so we could see something like that in September.

这就是为什么九月可能会让人失望，迈克。

That's why this could be sad September, Mike.

这种情况仍然有可能发生，而且我们可能仍处于牛市早期，所以这就是为什么你在寻找比特币价格在两个区间之间的确认，对吧？

That still could be the case, and also, we still could be in an early bull, and so that's why you're looking for confirmation of a, basically a Bitcoin price between two ranges here, right?

对。

Correct.

所以你关注的是两百日移动平均线，目前是六万九千四，然后你关注的是五十周移动平均线，你说是多少，八万一？

So you're looking at the two hundred day moving average, which is currently that 69.4 k, and then you're looking at the fifty week moving average, which you said was what, 81 k?

八万一千二。

81.2,

是的。

yeah.

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

所以如果我们维持在这个区间内，即使跌到7万附近，你仍然可以确认这是牛市初期。

So if we stay within that range, you could sustain a dip down towards 70 k and still have confirmation that this is an early bull.

事实上，那样反而会进一步确认你的判断。

In fact, that kind of would confirm it to you.

对吧？

Is that correct?

没错。

Correct.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我们看到69.4k这个位置被跌破，然后进入一个低于200日均线的通道，那么200周均线大约在65k。

If we see that that 69.4 k break and then we end up in a channel where we're below the two hundred day moving average, the two hundred week is about 65 k.

那条移动平均线现在是在上升的。

That's a rising moving average right now.

所以如果你进入那个通道，你就会开始想，你是不是有可能跌破200周线，你知道，那现在你可能会看到形成另一个周期低点。

So if you end up in that channel, then you start to wonder, are you potentially going to go down below the 200, which, you know, now you're potentially looking at establishing another cycle low.

所以这会让大家都很意外，对吧？

So this is and that would throw everybody off, right?

所以这就是关键所在。

So so that's that's the key.

在你看来这仍然有可能，因为上周你说有40%到45%的概率我们会，让我想想，会创下更低的低点，对吧？

Which is still a possibility in your mind because last week you said 40 to 45% probability that we would, let's see, would have a lower low, right?

所以这留下了可能性，但实际上不是，你说我们有40%到45%的概率会创下更低的低点，这仍然是个相当大的概率，不是10%，也不是20%。

So that that leaves the possibility, well actually no, the 40 to 45% probability you said that we'd have a lower low, which is still a pretty large probability, not like a 10%, not like a 20%.

对，而且当我们站在另一边的时候，那是65%，所以我们并不是非常坚定地认为我们会再看到一个低点。

Right, and when we were, on the other side of that, it was 65%, so we weren't super strongly convicted that that we were gonna see another low.

现在我们站在了另一边，但你知道，我们仍然接近五五开。

Now we're on the other side of that, but it's you know, we're still close to fifty fifty here.

其实不太明朗。

It's not it's not super clear.

同时呢，我觉得这对任何投资者来说都是一个挑战。

At the same time, you know, I think this is the challenge for any investor out there.

就是，你想把多大比例的资金投到市场里？

It's just like, what percent of your portfolio do you want to be allocated in the in the market?

我一直在想，我们要确定合理的估值目标，然后建仓。

I've kind of been of the mind that, you know, we wanted to identify our fair fair value targets, get into positions.

显然，我们在关注周期，也在判断比特币大概什么时候见底，但我们基本是全程跟下来的。

Obviously, we're monitoring the cycle and where we think the, you know, Bitcoin's gonna bottom, but we kind of followed that all the way through.

而且我觉得进入熊市的时候，我本来是想等比特币见底再说。

And I think when I went into the bear market, I was kind of of the mind that I would wait for Bitcoin to bottom.

而且，如果你回头看2022年，比特币见底之后，你想买什么都有机会。

And that, you know, if you kind of looked back at 2022, you kind of had an opportunity to buy whatever you wanted after Bitcoin bottomed.

这次熊市完全不一样。

This bear market was was totally different.

我们很早就不得不适应，因为市场分化、基本面，还有我觉得市场在慢慢成熟，投资者群体也在慢慢成熟。

We had to adapt pretty early on because of dispersion, because of fundamentals, and kind of, like, what I would say is, you know, the the market's maturing a little bit, the investor base maturing a little bit.

我们看到了很多分化。

We've seen a lot of dispersion.

整个熊市期间，更像是一个选股者的市场。

It's been more of a sort of stock pickers market throughout the bear market.

所以我觉得经历这个过程，有我们的价格目标和公允价值区间真的很有帮助，即使比特币还在走弱，其他山寨币表现更好，我们也能有信念地建仓。

So I think going through that exercise, having our price targets, fair value ranges really helped, you know, just get into some positions with conviction even as Bitcoin still had more weakness, other alts were were outperforming.

所以这是一个不同的熊市，绝对不同。

So it's been a different definitely a different bear market.

而且我们可能正在加速走完这个过程，这确实让我有点犹豫，但同时，我们一直在看这些周期指标、当前状况数据、市场结构数据，所有这些都让我觉得我们已经走了85%到90%的路。

And the way that we're, you know, potentially speedrunning it does give me a little bit of a little bit of pause, but also, you know, we've been going through all these these cycle metrics, current conditions data, market structure data, and all of that, you know, continues to make me feel like we're 85, 90% of the way there.

所以这有点像艺术了。

So it's just it's kinda becomes art.

到了这个阶段，这更像是艺术而不是科学，你必须做出决定，而我做的决定就是在这个阶段基本上全力做多。

It's it's art rather than science, you know, once you get get to this state and you kinda have to make a decision, and the decision I've made is to be, you know, pretty much risk on, you know, at the at this stage.

我明白了。

I get it.

我觉得你投资组合里非比特币的收益确实反映了这一点。

And I think the your non Bitcoin gains in the portfolio really reflect that.

我敢打赌你很高兴你调整了策略，而不是依赖之前周期的模式，等着比特币完全触底再投入非比特币资产。

And I bet you're glad you you you shifted that strategy rather than just relying on the pattern from from previous cycles of waiting Bitcoin to like fully bottom before you deploy into non Bitcoin assets.

总之，关于这个我们最后再详细说。

Anyway, more on that towards the end.

我们来看看比特币目前的状况。

Let's take a look at current conditions just for Bitcoin.

我读这一部分的时候，会先讲不太好的方面，然后可能讲好的方面。

As I read through this section, I'm gonna go through kind of the not good, and maybe the good.

好吗？

Okay?

所以不太好的方面，这让我有点怀疑我们是不是处于早期牛市。

So the not good, this kind of makes me a little suspicious that we're in an early bull.

现货成交量还没恢复。

We don't have the spot volumes back.

ETF的势头在过去两周挺猛的，但自8月20日以来已经减弱了。

The ETF momentum, that was pretty pretty large in the last two weeks, but it has waned since August 20.

而且矿工还在卖。

And we still have miners selling.

上次2022年，早期牛市是在矿工开始买入时才确认的。

Last time, 2022, the early bull was con you know, confirmed when miners started buying.

对。

Yep.

所以这不太好。

So that's, like, not good.

这让我有点怀疑。

That makes me a bit suspicious.

另一方面，比特币的主导地位在上升，这以前是早期牛市的信号。

On the other hand, Bitcoin dominance is rising, and that has previously been a sign of the early bull.

对。

Yep.

这一点一直挺稳定的。

That's been pretty consistent.

资金费率也很健康。

The funding rates are healthy.

就像你说的，我们看到了一些活力，尤其是在加密经济里非比特币的领域，特别是最近几周，Robinhood链上表现很活跃。

We have seen life, as you point out, into non Bitcoin areas of the crypto economy, particularly right now in the last few weeks has been Robinhood chain Yeah.

还有迷因币交易，但整个周期里，我们也看到了Zcash、Hyperliquid、Lit这些，所以这算是早期牛市的一个信号。

Meme trading, but through the cycle, we've seen Zcash, we've seen Hyperliquid, we've seen Lit, we've seen all of these things, so that's kind of a early bull type indicator.

而且你上周预测的那个情况，其实已经发生了，就是迈克尔·塞勒又回到市场了，他正在买入。

And this one, which you predicted last week, actually already came to pass, which is Michael Saylor is back in the market, he's buying.

他发了条推文说，我们回来了。

He tweeted out, we're back.

这周买了3.7亿美元的比特币，感觉他卖比特币好像就是昨天的事。

$370,000,000 of Bitcoin buys on the week, and it seemed like only yesterday when he was selling that Bitcoin.

所以回到迈克尔·塞勒的看涨买入，我觉得这对他来说挺合适的。

And so returning back to bullish buying Michael Saylor, I feel like that that feels like a good fit for him.

那么把这些因素综合起来看，你得出什么结论？

So when you weigh all of these things together, what do you get?

因为在我看来，这里信号有点混杂。

Because to me it's kind of a mixed signals here.

我不知道，成交量看起来不太好，但另一方面，我们确实有这些积极的信号。

I don't know the volume doesn't look good, but on the other hand, we do have these positive signals.

是的。

Yes.

我同意。

I agree.

信号混杂，你知道，塞勒重回市场，希望这可能是反向指标。

Mixed signals, you know, Saylor back in the market, hope that's you know, that could be a contra indicator potentially.

他之前是在低点卖出，现在又在买入了。

He was selling the lows, now he's buying.

我们会不会从那个位置反转？

Are we gonna reverse out of that?

然后他又在60的时候卖出了。

And then he's selling again at 60.

你知道，如果这就是接下来要发生的事，那可真是一个大新闻。

You know, that would be quite the story if if that's what's gonna play out here.

但是，是的，你知道，他重新开始买入这件事挺有意思的。

But, yeah, you know, him back to buying is interesting.

他们现在报告了四年的股息支付，所以你可以想象，持有那些优先股产品，持有SCRC，焦虑感会少一些。

They reported four years of dividend payments now, so you you can imagine that there's less anxiety around holding those preferred products, holding SCRC.

有趣的是，你知道，我觉得他可能回购了数亿美元的STRC，但价格还是没有回到100，而100是该产品的面值。

What is interesting is, like, it's it's still you know, he's, I think, repurchased hundreds of millions of STRC as well, and it still hasn't gotten back up to a 100, which is which is par for that product.

如果发生这种情况，我会说从策略角度来看，这会变得更加有趣，因为如果发生这种情况，他就有可能发行更多的STRC，然后买入更多的比特币。

If that happens, I would say this gets more interesting from the strategy perspective because there's a chance that if that happens, he's going to be able to then issue more STRC and buy more Bitcoin.

而且，在熊市里，他的资本结构中的MSTR部分，也就是股权，一直在被稀释，被打击得很惨。

And, like, kind of the way that that has been playing out in the the bear market is that the MSTR part of his capital stack, the the equity has been getting just killed, getting diluted.

其实，他就是靠发行MSTR来保护STRC，稳固自己的资产负债表。

I mean, that's really what he's used issuance of MSTR to defend STRC to shore up his balance sheet.

但有意思的是，这个结构要反转了，以后STRC会变成未来购买比特币的融资工具。

But what's kinda gets interesting here is that structure is going to flip, and and it's gonna be STRC that becomes the funding mechanism for for future buys.

这样一来，对之前被稀释的MSTR持有者反而是好事，因为他现在用资本结构的另一部分来买比特币，提高每股比特币持有量。

And that is then accretive to MSTR holders who were getting diluted, but now he's using the other part of the capital stack to fund the Bitcoin purchase and increase Bitcoin per share.

所以，如果STRC涨到100那个水平，你可能会看到MSTR出现反弹。

So you could see or you could potentially see a reflexive move out of MSTR, I think, if STRC gets up to that that 100 level.

有意思。

Interesting.

也许MSTR又会成为比特币的高波动性投资选择，因为它之前跌得太惨了。

Maybe MSCR becomes interesting beta to Bitcoin again because it's been getting getting killed so much.

我觉得挺有意思的，但就目前的情况，我同意你的看法。

It's kind of interesting to me, but I I agree with you on the current conditions.

就是有一些混杂的信号。

Like, there's some kind of mixed signals.

比特币的市占率，我们原本以为可能会见顶回落，然后往下走。

Bitcoin dominance, we thought was potentially gonna turn over and go down.

那本来会是比特币走弱的一个信号。

That would have been an indicator of, you know, Bitcoin weakness.

通常，在周期低点附近，你会看到比特币走弱，市占率也会下降。

And usually, you see Bitcoin weakness, Bitcoin in terms of dominance heading into cycle lows.

但现在已经回升了，这更像是牛市初期会出现的信号。

We've since turned up, which is more of an indicator of what you would see in the early bull.

你提到了矿工。

You talked about the miners.

矿工一直在大量抛售。

The miners have been selling a lot.

这跟周期低点时的典型情况挺一致的。

This is pretty consistent with, like, what you tend to see at the cycle lows.

我也不太清楚具体发生了什么。

I don't know exactly what's going on there.

我们知道一些大型矿企正在进行某种重组，或者把部分能源基础设施卖给AI公司，可能顺便清理一下资产负债表上的比特币。

We know there's some sort of restructuring happening with some of the large miners or selling some of their energy infrastructure to AI companies and maybe just, you know, you know, getting rid of some of the the the the Bitcoin on their balance sheet as they do that.

我们期待这种情况可能会反转。

Looking for that to potentially reverse out.

在2022年进入牛市初期时，这种情况确实反转了。

It did reverse out once we hit the early bull stage back in 2022.

我们一直在讨论长期持有者的供应量。

Well, we've been talking about long term holder supply.

这个供应量也在下降。

That is that is also declining.

我认为这主要是最高买入群体，也就是92到108千、108千到126千这些区间。

My view on that is that is mostly the top buyer cohorts, which is the 92 to a 108 k, a 108 k to a 126 k.

这些群体仍在减持。

Those cohorts are still dropping.

我们之前没提到，但我们一直看到供应在向更高区间集中，而最高区间群体却在继续抛售。

We didn't mention this earlier, but we have been seeing, like, the sort of consolidation of supply moving up into cohorts, but we are seeing the top cohorts continue to sell into this.

所以在我看来，这像是基于时间的投降式抛售，这与在底部时你希望看到的情况相当一致。

And so that looks like time based capitulation to me, which is pretty consistent with what you would wanna see at the at the lows.

随着我们进入早期牛市，我们预计这种情况会有所回升。

We would be looking for that to come up as we, you know, go into the early bull here.

然后，是的，交易量和活跃度都非常非常低。

And then just, yeah, like, volumes activity, very, very low.

比特币链上活动并不是很多。

Not seeing a ton of just kind of, like, activity on chain with Bitcoin.

衍生品市场方面，我觉得也比较平淡。

Also in the derivatives market, I would say, very kind of tame.

在比特币上，确实没有看到那种市场情绪高涨的迹象。

Not really seeing, like, the signs of animal spirits and things like that on Bitcoin specifically.

但当我们转向更广泛的加密货币生态系统时，我们看到了很多活跃的迹象，比如在Robinhood链上，Solana上的一些局部活跃，以及pump fund。

But when we go to sort of the broader crypto ecosystem, we're seeing lots of signs of life, like on Robinhood chain, pockets of life on Solana, and the sort of pump fund.

这主要围绕模因币和社交交易用例。

This is mostly around kind of the meme coins, social trading use cases.

这是我们识别出的一个领域。

This is a sector that we've identified.

我们称之为快速DeFi。

We're calling it sort of fast DeFi.

我们喜欢这个领域的部分原因在于加密市场的反身性。

And part of the reason where we we like this sector is because of the reflexivity of crypto markets.

当新用户进入链上时，我们还没看到有应用在做回购，同时具备这种快速DeFi的用例，即高流动性、高收入、强基本面。

And when kinda new users come on chain, we haven't seen, like, apps that are doing buybacks that have sort of these fast DeFi use cases where there's tons of velocity, tons of revenue, tons of fundamentals.

他们在低流通代币上做回购，这样就能快速发现价格。

They're doing buybacks in sort of these low float tokens, and you can get rapid price discovery.

我认为我们正在这里看到早期迹象，可能是在牛市初期。

And I think that's we're seeing kind of the early signs of this here in the in the early early bull possibly early bull market.

所以对我来说，如果你回到2023年，FTX之后，我们经历了一段冷淡期。

So that to me, like, if you go back to 2023, like, after FTX, we kinda went through an apathy period.

那时非常安静，但最先开始活跃起来的是模因币。

It was very quiet, but the first thing that started to to kinda pop off was meme coins.

比如说，2023年那个银行模因币让Solana生态重新活了起来。

So, like, there was a like, the bank meme coin sort of revived the Solana ecosystem in 2023.

Pepe是在2023年3月或4月推出的，那时候市场真的很低迷，但它点燃了那种动物精神，也点燃了加密生态的那一部分。

Pepe was launched, I believe, in March or April 2023 when it was really dead, but it kind of ignited the sort of animal spirits and kind of that part of the crypto ecosystem.

我现在在Robinhood链上看到的情况，也有那种苗头。

And I'm seeing flashes of that with what's happening on Robinhood chain right now.

这种情况可能会持续几个月。

And this can go on for a few months.

有趣的是，从这种反射性来看，我们可能会开始看到链上财富效应的出现，我觉得目前还没有真正出现。

And what gets interesting in terms of, like, the reflexivity of what can happen is we could start to see onchain wealth effects start to come, which I I would say we have not had just yet.

财富效应来自于模因币上涨，人们赚了很多钱，然后可能有人搞个空投之类的。

But the wealth effects come from, you know, meme coin rising and people making lots of money, and then maybe somebody does an airdrop or or something.

现在社交交易领域有很多有趣的事情发生，我觉得那里有可能产生财富效应。

There's a lot of interesting stuff happening in this social sort of trading space right now where I could see potential for wealth effects.

我觉得有可能会有空投，点燃那个社区，把大量资金放进每个人的钱包，然后引发另一波投机热潮。

I can see potential for an airdrop, something to ignite that community that puts a lot of capital into everybody's wallet that then kicks off another wave of speculation.

所以，那种情况在2023年直到年底才出现，当时JITO做了空投，大家可能还记得。

So that that that didn't come in '23 until kind of later in the year when JITO did their their airdrop, and people might remember this.

那件事在Solana生态内，尤其是在Solana DeFi领域，引发了一系列连锁反应，也推动了Solana走完了上一个周期。

That kind of kicked off things within the Solana ecosystem, within Solana DeFi, and it kind of propelled Solana through the last cycle.

而且我们有可能在Robinhood链上看到类似的情况，我觉得Robinhood在这方面做得非常好，很早就开始引导了。

And it's possible we're gonna see something like that with Robinhood chain and just kind of what Robinhood I think they're doing a really good job just kind of, like, guiding this very early on.

这个东西才推出几个月，产生的收入就已经超过了Solana和以太坊。

This thing just launched, you know, a couple months ago, and it's doing more REV than Solana and Ethereum.

它的日收入已经打破了纪录，这真的很不可思议。

It broke in terms of daily r REV, which is really incredible.

所以这值得关注。

So something to watch there.

我们也在关注稳定币供应量、以太坊上的活跃贷款、DEX交易量等等这些指标。

We're paying attention to, you know, stablecoin supply, active loans on Ethereum, DEX volumes, all these things.

这些数据都开始出现上升趋势，虽然不是特别猛烈，但整体看起来相当积极。

They're all starting to, I would say, inflect up, not in a super aggressive way, but things are looking pretty positive, I would say.

从整个加密货币生态来看，比特币显得比较低迷。

When I look at the crypto ecosystem broadly, Bitcoin looks more subdued.

你知道，我们还没真正看到投机资金回流到比特币。

You know, we haven't really seen the the return of, like, speculation into Bitcoin just yet.

所以……

So

我们一会儿再结合宏观因素来聊，但先提一个快速观察。

Let's blend some of the macro here in a second, but first, a quick observation.

我觉得这轮上涨是由财政部兜底政策引发的。

So I think this whole rally has been kicked off by the Treasury put.

那种货币贬值交易又回来了，所以显然对加密货币这种价值储存资产有利。

Sort of the the debasement trade is back on, and so, obviously, that is good for crypto based store of value assets.

对。

Yep.

我在想，这对你所说的快速DeFi和社交交易这类 meme 币经济是不是也有好处。

I wonder if it's also good for the meme coin economy, what you called fast DeFi and social trading.

这几乎就像是一种投机性的贬值交易，对吧？

That's almost like a a degen debasement trade, isn't it?

是不是？

Right?

确实是。

It is.

它确实也从货币贬值中获得了助力。

It is getting tailwinds from debasement as well.

就像，如果美元一文不值，那我干脆买点模因币算了。

It's just like, well, if the dollar's worth nothing, I may as well buy some meme coins.

我想知道这是不是其中的一部分效应，而且这一切都源于宏观和货币贬值。

I wonder if that's part of the effect here, and it's all downstream of macro and debasement.

这周我其实想问你一个宏观方面的大问题，就是沃什在杰克逊霍尔的演讲。

Big question on macro I actually wanted to ask you this week was about Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole.

因为在那次演讲之后，我注意到加密货币价格稍微下跌了一点，而且从那以后，自从我们得到财政部支持以来，价格可能暂停了，或者没有继续上涨的势头。以下是他说的话。

Because after this speech, I noticed crypto prices went down a little bit, and have maybe paused or or not continued that momentum since we got the the Treasury put, and here are the words that he said.

市场认为这是鹰派信号。

The market interpreted this as hawkish.

你自己判断吧。

You be the judge.

当然。

Sure.

我们必须确信潜在通胀正在以足够的速度明确地向我们的目标移动，关键的话来了，否则，我们还有工作要做。

We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed, and here's the line, otherwise, we have work to do.

否则，我们还有工作要做。

Otherwise, we have work to do.

我觉得市场把这句话理解为，好吧。

I think the market interpreted that as, okay.

他是在说我们还需要努力控制通胀。

He's saying we have work to do to rein in inflation.

他会对联邦基金利率政策采取更鹰派的立场，而且讲话前市场对九月加息的概率预期是30%到40%。

He's going to be more hawkish with Fed funds policy, and the odds of a September rate hike prior to the speech were at 30 to 40%.