BTC周期低点？对宏观、山寨币和加密股票的看法

大家好。

Hello everyone.

欢迎来到报告会。

Welcome to the report.

在今天的报告中，迈克将他所有的剩余现金以每盎司4700美元的价格全部投入黄金。

On today's report, Mike deploys all his remaining cash into gold at $4,700 per ounce.

迈克，这周的表现简直难以置信。

Mike, unbelievable on the on the week.

你为什么要这么做？

Why'd you do this?

没有黄金。

No gold.

投资组合中目前还没有黄金，但有很多内容要讨论。

No gold just yet in the portfolio, but a lot to talk about.

有很多内容要讨论。

A lot to talk about.

目前宏观市场焦点全在石油上，所以我相信我们一定会深入讨论今天伊朗发生的事情。

Macro is all about oil right now, so I'm sure we're gonna get into this and get into what's going on in Iran today.

我目前做的很多工作，其实就是试图厘清比特币潜在下行风险究竟在哪里。

And, you know, a lot of the work that I'm doing right now is just kind of trying to resolve the tension of, like, where where is the downside potentially for Bitcoin?

这让你不禁想起我们当时处于市场顶部的那段时期，那时我们评估的是上行与下行的风险。

And it kinda reminds you similarly to the period when we were kind of at the top of the market where we're assessing risks of going up, you know, versus going down.

现在情况有点反转了，但双向依然存在风险，我们接下来会探讨一下，我们认为事情可能在后期如何发展。

Now, you know, it's kind of flipped, but there's still risk in both directions, and we're gonna get into sort of where we think things could potentially land later this

天啊。

god.

我喜欢迈克刚才那种专业的回应，因为我突然问了他这个问题，他很意外。

I love the professional response that Mike just gave because I surprised him with it.

愚人节，2026年4月1日，当时的头条新闻。

April Fool's Day, 04/01/2026, headline there.

迈克根本没买入黄金，但他还是给了我一个很专业的回应。

Mike has not deployed into gold at all, but he gave me a professional response.

忘了，好吧，今天是四月的真实报告。

Forgot it Alright, on April the real report today.

是的。

Yeah.

我们正在预测比特币的周期低点，好吧。

We are forecasting the Bitcoin cycle low, okay.

我认为比特币的周期低点可能是任何加密货币熊市中最有趣的数字。

I think the Bitcoin cycle low is probably the most interesting number in any crypto bear market.

底部价格。

The bottom price.

是多少？

What is it?

而今天的问题是，比特币实际可能跌到多低？

And the question today is how low could Bitcoin actually go?

我们现在处于六十几。

We're in the sixties now.

我们还能跌到多少？

Could we go?

我们会看到五十吗？

Could we see fifties?

我们会看到四十吗？

Could we see forties?

还会更低吗？

Is it lower?

我们从周期高点已经下跌了47%。

We're down 47% from cycle highs.

链上数据对这一走势有何看法？

What's the onchain data say about where this is going?

我们马上来分析。

We'll get into it.

迈克有实现价格、200周移动平均线作为对比，还有完整的TDR深度价值关键指标。

Mike's got the realized price, the two hundred week moving average to compare, and the full TDR suite of deep value KPIs.

我们还要从更宏观的角度来看，迈克，正如你刚才所说，这场本应已经结束的冲突已经持续了五周，我们必须关注这场能源冲击。

We're also gonna be looking broader, Mike, as you just said, we're five weeks into the conflict that was supposed to be over by now, and we gotta take a look at the energy shock.

我听一些分析师说，这股气流正从亚洲向西方移动，我们会看看这股气流最终会停在哪里。

I've heard analysts call this an air pocket that's moving from Asia toward the West, and we'll see where that air pocket ends up.

请继续看到最后。

Stick around to the end.

和往常一样，我们会深入探讨一些价格和深度价值的价格判断。

As usual, we get into some prices, some deep value price calls.

不过在进入本期内容之前，迈克，我知道你是个巴菲特的忠实粉丝。

Before we get into the episode though, Mike, I know you're a big Buffett fan.

本周有一段巴菲特的采访，我偶然看到了这段视频。

There was a Buffett interview on the week, and I came across this clip.

它让我想起了你。

It reminded me of you.

我们来播放一下。

Let's play it.

那我们来谈谈这个。

Well, let's talk about that.

市场已经大幅下跌。

The market has come down substantially.

你并没有大幅下跌。

You've Not substantially.

道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数都已进入修正区间。

Well, you've got both the Dow and the NASDAQ in correction territory.

这是近四年来股票季度表现最差的一次。

It's the worst performance on a quarterly basis for stocks in about four years.

在你看来，现在的东西更便宜了吗？

Do things look cheaper to you?

没有。

No.

自从我接管伯克希尔以来，股价已经三次下跌超过50%。

Three times since I took taken over Berkshire, it's gone down more than 50%.

我的意思是，如果你看看市场，最糟糕的可能是1978年2月那段时期。

I mean, if you look at the markets of oh, the worst probably was the 02/1978 period.

尽管，那是在某一个周一，一天就下跌了21%。

Although, it was that one Monday when you had 21% in a day.

我的意思是，这根本不算什么。

I mean, this this is nothing.

我的意思是，这

I mean, it it

好吧，这还不足以让你兴奋，觉得估值有巨大空间。

Well, this is nothing to make you get excited and think there's huge valuation

嗯，它们便宜了百分之五到六。

Well, they're they're five or 6% cheaper.

是的。

Yeah.

但这不是我们的目标，我们不是为了赚这百分之五到六。

That doesn't we we aren't in it to make five or 6%.

我的意思是

I mean

它们便宜了百分之五到六。

They're five to 6% cheaper.

是的。

Yeah.

我爱这个。

I love this.

我每次上节目时都感觉像个采访者，我会说：‘嘿，迈克，加密货币又便宜了吗？’

I feel like the interviewer every week I get on and I'm like, hey, is crypto cheaper yet, Mike?

而你总是说：‘没有。’

And you're like, nope.

还没。

Not yet.

稍微便宜了一点，但我们不是为了这百分之五到六而参与的。

It's slightly cheaper, but we're not in it for the five to 6%.

我们追求的是深层价值和那些大满贯机会。

We're in it for the deep value for the home runs here.

巴菲特现在手里握着大量现金，对吧？

Buffett is like sitting on a lot of cash right now, isn't he?

我知道你是个巴菲特的忠实粉丝。

And I know you're a big Buffett fan.

我觉得你之前告诉我，你几乎完整地看过了这场访谈。

I think you told me you watched this interview almost in total.

你觉得他在等什么？

What do you think he's waiting for?

是的。

Yeah.

这真的很有趣。

It's it's it's interesting.

我的意思是，每次听到巴菲特讲话都让人耳目一新，他看待市场的思路始终清晰而一致。

I mean, it's really it's always refreshing just hearing Buffett talk and just the clarity and the consistency with with how he approaches markets.

所以他对于市场现在很便宜这种说法表示不屑，这让人耳目一新，尤其是在市场下跌了五到六个百分点的时候。

So him saying him sort of scoffing at this idea that, you know, markets are cheap right now was very refreshing to to watch, you know, down five or 6%.

他经历过，我想他提到过，在他的职业生涯中，市场下跌超过50%的情况已经发生过三次以上。

He's seen, you know, I think he mentioned, you know, 50%, three plus times in his career.

是的。

So Yeah.

这算不了什么。

This is nothing.

我们经常谈论好机会，试图采用他的投资框架，在认为资产被超卖时买入，因为未来正回报的概率真的非常非常高。

And we talk about fat pitches, you know, all the time, and that and we try to kind of take his framework for buying things when we think they are oversold and the probability of, you know, positive future returns is just, like, really, really strong.

因此，我们对加密货币也采用了类似的框架，并且有同样的感受。

And so we're we're taking a similar framework to crypto, and we've kinda felt the same way.

尽管价格下跌了，但还谈不上是那种大声疾呼的买入时机。

Even though prices are down, you know, it's not like a, you know, screaming, screaming buy just yet.

好的。

Alright.

我们来看看今天这期节目中能否找到那个尖叫式的买入机会，也就是那个绝佳的投机会价格。

We'll see if we can find the screaming buy, the fat pitch price in today's episode.

在进入正题之前，必须向我们的朋友Galaxy致谢。

Before we get in there, gotta shout out our friends over at Galaxy.

自从TDR播客开播以来，我们就一直在谈论Galaxy。

We've been talking about Galaxy since the beginning of the TDR podcast.

不过这一周对TDR听众来说有些特别之处。

There's something special though on the week for TDR listeners.

Galaxy One即将推出对Solana的质押服务。

Galaxy One is launching staking for SOLANA.

如果你还没听说过Galaxy One，那是他们的面向消费者的应用程序。

If you have not heard of Galaxy One, it's their consumer app.

Galaxy有一款面向消费者的应用程序。

Galaxy has a consumer app.

如果你已经持有SOL（即Solana的代币），那操作起来非常简单。

And if you're already holding SOL, that is the ticker of course of of Solana, it's pretty simple.

你得让它发挥作用。

You gotta put it to work.

你得赚取SOL的6.5%浮动质押收益。

You gotta earn your 6.5% variable staking rewards on SOL.

今年年底前没有平台佣金费用，所以完全免费。

There's no platform commission fee through the end of this year, so no commission fee.

所有收益都会回到你的口袋里。

You get all of that back in your pocket.

而且所有功能都集成在一起了。

It's all integrated too.

你可以在应用内直接购买SOL，或者将SOL转入其中。

You can buy SOL directly in the app or transfer it there.

一旦你质押了，它就会自动复利，非常方便。

Once you stake it, it's beautiful, just compounds automatically.

所以你可以去看看。

So you could check that out.

节目笔记里有一个链接。

There's a link in the show notes.

开始质押SOL，我想我已经说过了，这有点绕口，在Galaxy One上。

Start staking SOL, I think I got that out, it's a tongue twister, on Galaxy One.

节目笔记里有一个链接。

There's a link in the show notes.

好的。

Alright.

仓位配置，我来总结一下。

Positioning, I'm gonna round it.

你目前50%是现金，50%是加密货币，我想我们上周说过，准备小规模入场。

You are 50% cash, 50% crypto, and I think we said last week, ready to nibble.

本周比特币价格为6.8万美元，较上期报告下跌了4%。

Bitcoin price in the week is 68 k, down 4% since the last report.

此外，标普500指数下跌了6.7%，我认为这是从历史高点回落的。

Also, S and P is down 6.7%, I think that's from all time high.

对吗

Is that correct,

迈克？

Mike?

对。

Correct.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

纳斯达克下跌了10%。

NASDAQ down 10%.

本周在周二出现3.8%的反弹后，它重新站上了200日移动平均线。

It reclaimed its two hundred day moving average this week after rally that was on Tuesday, 3.8% rally.

我不知道。

I don't know.

不过今天早上它又下跌了吗？

Is it down again this morning, though?

我认为目前纳斯达克略微上涨了，所以这实际上是继昨天大幅上涨之后的又一个延续行情日。

I think we're up a little bit on the Nasdaq right now, so actually another a follow through day after that big move yesterday.

看到一个延续行情日，对多头来说应该是好事，我想。

Good to see a follow through day, I guess, for for the bulls.

不过，我们还是会讨论这波行情能否持续。

Although, we'll we'll talk about whether that's going to last or not.

你目前有六个资产在观察列表中，交易价格处于公允价值范围内，还有三个资产处于深度价值区域。

You got six assets on the watch list currently trading within fair value or and three assets in deep value territory.

好的。

Okay.

我们来谈谈战争吧，因为看起来它现在正在主导市场。

Let's talk about the war because it seems like that is driving markets right now.

我们现在处于四到六周计划的第五周。

We're in week five of the four to six week plan.

你对这个怎么看？

What what's your read on this?

我们离解决更近了，还是没有？

Are we getting closer to resolution or not?

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，首先要说明的是，我们并不是这方面的专家。

You know, definitely, you know, preface this with, you know, we're not experts on this.

我们只是试图清楚地了解我们知道什么，以及不知道什么。

We're trying to just, you know, have clear eyes about what we know and and also what we don't know out there.

这很重要，因为石油以及它对当前整体经济的影响。

You know, this is important just because oil and just how that impacts the rest of the economy right now.

所以我认为，从宏观角度看，现在一切都围绕着石油，以及伊朗那边发生的事情。

So I think if you're thinking about macro, it's really all about oil right now and, obviously, what's going on over over in Iran.

我觉得，从宏观角度来看，目前出现了显著的中断。

You know, I think just the the kind of high level from my view is there is significant disruption.

对吧？

Right?

目前大约有百分之十到十点五的石油和天然气来自海峡的供应受到影响，这已经相当严重了。

So roughly ten ten and a half percent of the oil and gas, you know, that comes out of the strait is is impaired right now, so that's that's significant.

另一个问题是，这主要影响的是亚洲市场。

The other piece is that this mostly impacts the Asian markets.

所以我们从摩根大通大宗商品研究部门调出的这张图表，大致展示了随着时间推移，将被关闭的石油数量。

So this graphic here that we pulled up from JPMorgan commodities research, it kinda just highlights the amount of oil that is gonna be sort of shut off here as time goes.

看起来影响似乎正从东向西扩散，而美国受到的影响很小，每天不到一百万桶，这种情况将在今天——四月——停止。

And it looks like it's sort of gonna move from, you know, east to west with you know, The US has a very, you know, small impairment, less than 1,000,000, you know, barrels per day, which will stop on April, which is today.

所以，这就是目前发生的情况。

And so, you know, that's that's kind of, like, what's happening.

我认为，实际情况下，日本和韩国等地已经开始采取一些应急措施，比如动用战略储备、重新规划供应链等。

I think boots on the ground, you're starting to get into a situation in places like Japan and South Korea where they're starting to put in some, like, emergency measures and potentially tapping into some of their strategic reserves, you know, rerouting supply lines, things like this.

所以目前还尚未达到紧急短缺的担忧，但我们已经在采取这些措施了。

So so it hasn't reached, like, a emergency shortage fear just yet, but it's like we're we're getting those measures into place.

这种情况持续得越久，后果显然就越严重。

And the longer this goes on, the worse, you know, that it obviously gets.

这就是目前实地发生的情况。

So that's kind of what's happening on the ground right now.

当你观察这对市场的影响时，我们已经看到利率上升了。

When you kind of look at how this is impacting markets, you know, we've seen, you know, interest rates rising.

自这一事件发生以来，两年期国债收益率已上涨了约42个基点。

So treasury treasury yield on a two year up about 42 basis points since this complex started.

这给国债带来了压力。

This is putting pressure, you know, on the treasury.

你需要为大量债务进行再融资。

You need to refinance a bunch of debt.

实际利率正在上升。

You know, real rates are rising.

我们已经看到，由于这一情况，股市出现了波动。

We've seen volatility, you know, in equities, you know, as a result of this.

我在这里关注的是，两年期收益率实际上已经略有回落，而通常你会看到，油价上涨的担忧如何影响通胀，进而传导至利率和股市。

And, you know, kinda what I'm looking at here is we we've seen a two year actually roll over a little bit, and what you tend to see is the scare of, like, kind of higher oil oil prices, how that impacts inflation, how that and then that bleeds through rates, equities.

但这一过程的第二阶段是需求被削弱，即消费者因为花在油价上的钱太多，手头可支配的现金变少了。

But but but sort of the second phase of that is kinda demand destruction, you know, actually in the economy where consumers just have less cash, you know, to deploy because they're spending a lot on oil.

石油是许多生产过程中的重要投入品。

Oil's a big input into a lot of production.

所以，通常后续会发生的是，市场对经济增长的担忧加剧，经济出现放缓。

So then, you know, typically what happens later on is you get a growth scare and a slowdown in the economy.

我认为这最终会推动利率下行。

I think that will ultimately push rates down.

也许债券市场已经开始意识到这一点，当利率开始回落时。

Maybe that's what the bond market's starting to see as rates start start to roll over.

所以，如果我们从宏观角度来看当前的局面，由于白宫和伊朗方面传递出的各种混杂信息，很难判断究竟发生了什么。

So so, you know, it's if we kinda zoom out on just the situation here, it's really hard to tell what's what's going on with all the different mixed messages that we get from the White House and also from the Iranian side.

但我的基本假设只是个混乱的局面。

But my my base case is is just kind of a messy situation.

你知道，我们可以试着推测一下，但我认为这里涉及多方，潜在的利益冲突，尤其是那些靠近海湾行动的海湾国家。

You know, we can kinda try to game this out a little bit, but I just think there's a lot of parties involved here potentially conflicting incentives with the, you know, Gulf states that are closest, you know, to the action in in The Gulf.

然后你还有其他各方，比如中国在想什么？

And then you've got other parties like, you know, what is China thinking?

俄罗斯在做什么？

What is Russia doing?

你知道，这里涉及的变数实在太多了。

You know, there's just there's just a lot of moving pieces here.

你知道，特朗普一直谈论可能从冲突中撤出，把这摊烂事留给别人收拾。

You know, Trump has been talking about potentially pulling out of the conflict, leaving this mess, I guess, to for someone else to clean up.

这到底意味着什么？

You know, what does that even mean?

我认为市场可能把这看作是一件好事。

I think the markets are looking at that as potentially a good thing to me.

我觉得这并不是好事，因为这仍然留下了大量的不确定性，而我认为市场是非常前瞻性的，它们迫切需要某种保证，知道航道会保持畅通。

Like, I don't think that's a good thing just because it still leaves all this uncertainty there, and I think markets are really forward looking and really need some sort of assurance that the straight will be open.

我们现在下跌了4%。

And we're 4% right now.

我们现在下跌了4%，所以我们正在观察，心想，好吧。

We're at we're down 4% now, so we're kinda looking at it and say, okay.

如果这种情况的发展类似于上一轮的情况，实际价格可能会降至48左右，也就是四十八九千美元的样子。

Like, if we kind of if this plays out similar similar to what we saw last cycle, we could the the realized price could potentially come down to, like, 48, you know, upper forties, 48.7 k or so is is what we

如果我们再下跌10%，就会低于2018年的14%跌幅和2022年的19.2%跌幅，那样就会落到大约48千或49千美元。

have if we have so if we have a further 10% decline, which would put us lower than the 201814% decline, and lower than the 202219.2% decline, that gets us to about 48 k or or 49 k.

这基本上和2022年的跌幅是一致的。

Well, that's using pretty much that's that's pretty in line with the decline from 2022.

所以我们现在基本上是在以2022年为基准向前推演。

So we're kind of, like, modeling 2022 forward.

哦，我明白了。

Oh, I see.

而且，是的，如果我们今年也出现类似的跌幅，大约从当前水平下跌14%，那就会达到40左右，好吧，

And, yeah, if we had a similar, you know, similar decline about 14% down from it this year, we'd get to that that 40 Well,

就是这个。

it's this one.

再下跌15%的话，实际价格将降至4.4万美元。

A further 15% decline would put realized price at 44 k.

对。

Correct.

对。

Correct.

所以这让我想到，嗯，

So so it gives you me an idea of, like, okay.

这就是我们认为实际价格可能走向的方向。

That's where we think realized price could be heading.

接下来要问的问题是，你知道，我们实际价格跌破这个水平的可能性有多大？

And then the next question to ask is, you know, what are the chances that we actually drop below that that realized price?

而且在过去的几个周期中，我们也确实跌到了这个水平以下。

And we did, you know, come come down below it in the last few cycles as well.

所以在2022年，我们下跌了16%。

And so in 2022, we were down 16%.

当比特币触底时，我们的价格比实现价格低了16%，而在2018年触底时，甚至比实现价格低了30%。

We actually came 16% below the realized price when Bitcoin bottomed, and we came 30% below the realized price when we bottomed 2018.

所以，再次说明，好吧。

So, again Okay.

我们必须把这个因素考虑进去。

We gotta factor that in.

如果现在把这一点纳入考量，那么当我们模拟实现价格的走势，并参考过去几个周期中类似的情况时，价格可能会跌至四十几的低位。

And now if you factor that in, that takes you potentially down to the low forties as where we think this could go if we're modeling, you know, where we think realized price is going and then potentially dropping below that at similar to what we did the last few cycles.

而这次说的是。

And and this time says.

对吧？

Right?

这就是表格的内容

This is That's what the table

紫色线表示当前周期中实际价格从峰值到谷底的预计跌幅。

purple, current cycle projected decline in realized price peak to trough.

如果你预计下跌13.6%，那会得到什么结果？

If you projected 13.6%, where do you get?

你会得到

You get to

这样就达到了40900美元。

That gets you to the 40.9 k.

哇哦。

Wow.

如果比特币价格跌破这个水平，那就是0.84倍了。

And then if you if if the Bitcoin price drops below that, that's the point eight four.

所以你的价格正在跌破这个水平。

So you're you're coming down below that.

你可能会在整个周期中遭遇高达6067%的回撤。

You're potentially getting to, like, a 6067% drawdown for the for the entire cycle.

你知道，我认为大多数人觉得这不太可能。

You know, I think most people think that that's unlikely.

这还不是我的基准情景，我们不会跌到那么低，但当你看到我们可能触及的位置——下跌67%——时，你知道，2022年低点时我们曾下跌了75%。

I still this is not my base case that we're gonna go that low, but when you see the symmetry between the where we would land there, 67% down, you know, that's we were down 75% at the lows in 2022.

我们曾下跌了83%。

We were down 83.

那里存在某种程度的对称性，你可能会看到这种情况发生。

There's somewhat some symmetry there, and you could see it happening.

所以这就是它的含义。

So that's It

我猜是更浅的回调。

is shallower dip, I suppose.

如果跌幅是67%，那将是一个比大多数情况更温和的熊市。

A shallower bear market than than most if it's 67%.

但你知道，当数字达到四万美元区间时，这感觉相当惊人。

But the, you know, those numbers, when you get to the 40 k range, that that feels pretty eye watering.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

确实如此。

It does.

确实如此。

It does.

我们刚刚谈到了巴菲特，以及他真正兴奋于投入资金的时候。

And, you know, we just talked about sort of Buffett and, you know, when he's really excited to deploy.

对。

Yeah.

你知道，那种情况下，巴菲特就会说，你知道的

You know, that's the type of scenario where, like, Buffett's like, you know

是的。

Yeah.

巴菲特就是那种在2008年会兴奋起来的人，对吧？

Buffett's the kind of guy to get excited in 2008, isn't he?

没错。

Yes.

他就是这样的人。

He's that kind of guy.

然后一直持有。

And then hold forever.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

Exactly。

Exactly.

所以让我们用200周移动平均线来检验一下这个观点。

So Let's cross examine that with the two hundred week moving average.

这告诉我们什么？

What what does that tell us?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我们再取另一个关键绩效指标，进行同样的分析，可以看到图表：我们通常会回落到200周移动平均线，也就是这个长达四年的长期移动平均线，然后做同样的分析。

So just taking another KPI here and running basically the same exercise where we can see the chart, We typically come down to the two hundred week moving average, the longer four four year long term moving average, and same exercise.

因此，当实际价格下跌时，这个数值并没有随之下降，而是随着年份推移实际上在上升。

So instead of this number dropping as the realized price drops, you know, as the site as the year moves on, this number is actually rising.

到目前为止，今年它已经上涨了约10%；当比特币价格在去年10月达到峰值时，大约是53千美元。

So it's up it's up about 10% so far this year when when Bitcoin price peaked back in October, we're it was at about 53 k.

目前200周移动平均线大约在59千美元左右。

Two hundred week moving average is now around around 59 k.

所以，我再次试图预测它未来可能走向哪里，因为我认为我们最终会回落并触及这个水平。

So I again, I'm trying to forecast where that is going to potentially move to because I think we are gonna, you know, come down and hit it.

而且我们已经上涨了，所以这又是一个移动的目标。

And we we went up this so this is, again, moving moving target.

随着一年的推移，它在持续上升。

It's increasing as the year goes on.

在2018年周期中，从比特币见顶到周期触底，这一数值上涨了176%。

It increased a 176% back in the 2018 cycle from the point that Bitcoin peaked to when it it bottomed for the cycle.

在上一个周期中，这个数字上涨了43.4%。

And in the last cycle, that number went up 43.4%.

我刚刚提到，我们今年已经上涨了10%。

We already I just mentioned we're up 10% already.

我们目前大约处于这个熊市的第五个半月。

We're roughly, you know, five and a half months into this bear market.

因此，合理预期它可能再上涨约20%，这将使200周移动平均线在今年晚些时候，可能在第四季度，达到约65千美元。

So think it's reasonable to expect that to go to about, you know, up about 20%, And that gets you to about 65 k for for where the two hundred week moving average could land sometime later this year, possibly in q four.

所以这是一个相当可观的数字。

And so that's that's a pretty healthy number.

这正是我们一直关注的公允价值所在。

That's kind of where, you know, we've been eyeing, you know, fair value.

而这里的问题是，我们是否会再次跌破这个水平？

And the question here again is, are we potentially gonna dip below that?

我们确实跌破过。

We did dip

在之前的周期中出现过。

in previous cycles.

确实如此。

It has.

确实如此。

It has.

上一个周期我们确实大幅跌破了，曾跌至200周移动平均线以下32%。

We did dip below it last cycle, actually, significantly below it, came down 32% below the two hundred week moving average.

这种情况发生在最后的抛售阶段，也就是FTX出事的时候。

That happened kind of at the final flush, you know, FTX, you know, when that when that was going on.

所以，同样的分析再次进行。

And and so, again, same exercise.

如果我们大致推算一下，这个周期开始时是53000美元的200周均线，现在上涨了10%。

If we sort of extrapolate this out, so we started the cycle at 53 k as the two hundred week move out, we're up 10%.

我们认为可能会达到65000美元。

We think that's potentially going to about 65 k.

这将是一个21%的涨幅，也就是21.7%的涨幅。

That would be a 21% increase, 21.7% increase.

如果我们最终下跌15%，也就是上次周期中跌破200周均线跌幅的一半，那么就会落到55000美元左右。

And if we end up, you know, coming down 15%, so half of the decline below the two hundred week moving average from last cycle, if we come down half of that, that gets you to a 55 k.

所以，这更像是一个比较合理的深度价值目标。

So that's a more reasonable sort of, you know, target for sort of deep value.

但这不是说一定会这样，我们只是提出这些可能的情景，以便为可能出现的情况做好准备。

But it's a no it's just these are kinda some scenarios that we're just putting out there so that we're prepared for kind of what could play out here.

而且，我们刚才也谈到了宏观层面的所有不确定性，比特币从未经历过经济衰退。

And, you know, we just talked about all of the uncertainty, you know, with macro, and, you know, Bitcoin's never lived through a recession.

这是另一个我认为我们必须考虑的变量，

That's the other the other variable that I think we we have to, you know,

现在还要把经济衰退因素纳入考量。

factor in recessions anymore.

经济衰退不是已经被消除了吗？

Recession's got been eliminated, haven't they?

好吧。

Alright.

所以你有这两个关键数字，一个是，再次强调，如果你仅使用你的预测，听众可以根据自己的意愿调整这些预测，结合实际价格分析，得到周期低点在4万或4万1千；而通过200周移动平均线分析，则得到5万5作为可能的周期低点。

So you got these these two key numbers, and the one is, again, if you just use your projections and and listeners can adjust these projections as they wish, with realized price analysis, you get a cycle low at 40 or 41, And then with the two hundred week moving average analysis, get a 55 number as the possible cycle low.

那你会怎么做？

So what do you do?

你是把这些数字简单地合并，取个中间值吗？

Do you just smush these things together and split the difference?

这些数字最终意味着，你认为比特币的深度价值区间在哪里？

Like what's what do these numbers ultimately mean for where you think deep value is for Bitcoin?

是的

Yeah.

这让我更加确信，我们还没有触底。

It it kinda just gives me conviction that, you know, we have not bottomed.

我知道我昨天发了一个投票，想了解大家的想法。

I know this is I actually put a poll up yesterday to get a sense of where people's heads are at.

我知道我的粉丝，如果大家关注我们的观点，很可能和我看法一致，所以这些结果可能有点偏差，但大约是25比75，关于人们

I know my followers, if people are subscribed to our views, they they probably agree with with me, so so that those results may have been a little skewed, but it was about I think it was about 25, 75 in terms of people

是的

Yeah.

我投了票。

I voted in that.

我说我们还没触底。

I said we haven't bottomed.

我们已经触底了。

We bottomed.

但那是因为我每周都和你在一起。

But that's because I'm, you know, with you every week.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

所以我们的民意调查可能并不能充分代表整个市场，但我确实认为，有一股日益壮大的力量认为我们已经触底了。

So our, you know, our polling is probably not super representative of the full market, but I do think there's a growing faction that thinks we've already bottomed.

现在有很多关于MicroStrategy产品及其需求的讨论，这使得迈克尔能够购买更多的比特币。

There's now a lot of talk about the MicroStrategy product and the demand for that product, and that's allowing Michael him to buy more Bitcoin.

所以人们开始关注这一点。

So people are sort of attaching to that.

对我来说，我只是觉得这让我更有信心，去思考哪里可能存在真正的深层价值，也让我更确信我们还没触底，这帮助我更好地为可能再次下跌做好准备，提前规划。

For me, you know, I just think this gives me confidence of, like, where I think, you know, real deep value potentially is and that we haven't hit hit the bottom and just helps me prepare a little bit more for if we do see another move down, you know, just kind of planning ahead.

我喜欢做大量的研究，我认为这和巴菲特的做法很相似——他一直在做研究，为当他看到自己想看到的机会时做好准备。

I like to really do a lot of work, and I think this is similar to what Buffett does is he's just doing research all the time and getting ready for what he's gonna do when he sees what he wants to see.

所以我觉得他总是做好了准备，然后就只是在等待那个绝佳的机会。

So I think he's always ready, and then he's kind of just just waiting for the fat pitch, basically.

没错。

That's right.

这正是我们正在努力做的事情。

That's that's what we're trying to do.

研究能增强信心。

The the research builds convictions.

我们简单聊一下山寨币和加密货币股票吧。

Let's touch briefly on altcoins and kind of crypto equities.

所以你在这里放了一张图表，显示加密货币总市值下跌了45%，这其中包括比特币，也涵盖了山寨币。

So you put up a chart here of we've had a 45% decline in total crypto market cap, which represents Bitcoin, but then is also weighted into altcoins as well.

是的。

Yep.

这很有趣，因为我们现在是进入这个阶段的第五个半月，还是第五个月？

And that's interesting because we're five and a half or are we five months into this?

五个月半。

Five and a half.

是的。

Yep.

五个月半。

Five and a half.

好的。

Okay.

在2022年的熊市中，我们也在进入熊市五个月半时经历了接近40%的跌幅。

And we had in the previous, in 2022 bear market, we're about close to the same, 40% decline five and a half months into the bear market.

现在你已经有了我们之前讨论过的应对加密货币熊市的一般框架，这是一个操作顺序。

Now you have a general framework for approaching crypto bear markets that we've discussed, which is an order of operation here.

首先，比特币见顶回落，你需要观察其低点，然后山寨币跟随下跌。

First, Bitcoin rolls over, you want to see those lows, and then altcoin altcoins sell off and and follow them.

比特币缓慢下行，山寨币持续疲软；比特币经历最后一次抛售时，山寨币（即其他所有币种）几乎同时触底，仅略晚于比特币，随后比特币率先引领反弹。

Bitcoin grinds lower, altcoins remain weak, Bitcoin has a final capitulation, altcoins, that's everything else, bottom around the same time, only slightly after Bitcoin, then Bitcoin leads the initial recovery on the other side.

一些精选的山寨币可能会表现更好。

Some select altcoins might outperform.

你知道，我们现在可能正看到像Hype这样的币在发生这种情况。

You know, and we're maybe we're seeing this with something like hype right now.

是的。

Yep.

它表现得更好了。

It's outperforming.

但这就是你处理问题的一般框架，而这只是基于历史经验。

But that's the general framework that you approach things with, and that's just informed by history.

因为比特币在市值和规模上都是如此重要的旗舰资产，它代表了加密行业的风险偏好。

It's because Bitcoin is such a large flagship of both market cap and size, and it invests kinda it represents kind of like risk on ness of the crypto industry.

所以，这是你的预期吗？它会遵循这条路径？

So is this your expectation that it'll just follow this path?

因此，你再次确认，你会先等待比特币见底，然后再观察其他所有加密资产？

And so, again, you're reconfirming that you're waiting for the Bitcoin bottom first, and then you'll look at all the other crypto assets?

是的。

Yes.

而且，有些人一直在问这个问题。

And, you know, some people have been asking about this a little bit.

你知道，我们清单上的一些资产已经跌到了我们之前列出的公允价值区间。

You know, some of the assets on the watch list have have fallen into, you know, what we had listed down there as fair value.

这些只是粗略的估计。

These are rough estimates.

你知道，没人能准确预测价格之类的，所以我们只是提供一个大致的估计，来反映我们对市场走向的看法。

You know, nobody can predict the prices and and all this stuff, so we're we're we're putting that out there as sort of a rough rough estimate of where we think, you know, things are going.

而且有些人一直在问，嘿。

And some people have been asking, you know, hey.

现在是不是该买入一些超卖且处于这个区间内的山寨币了？

Is it time to buy some of these altcoins that are that are oversold and and in this zone?

对此我的回答是，我觉得不一定。

And my answer to that is, you know, not not necessarily is kinda my my view.

并没有法律规定所有山寨币都必须跟随比特币的走势，但比特币可以说是牵动全局的那个主导因素。

There's no law that says, you know, all the altcoins have to follow what what Bitcoin is doing out there, but Bitcoin is kind of the the the dog that wags the tail here.

在我看来，这风险太大了。

And it's it's I I I think it's too much risk in my view.

在比特币见底之前买入这些资产根本不值得冒险，因为我的总体观点是，如果比特币再次出现显著下跌，所有资产都会走弱。

It's just not worth taking the risk to go in there and try to buy stuff before Bitcoin bottoms because my general view is that everything will be weak if Bitcoin has another, like, sort of significant leg down.

我们知道，在熊市中，当比特币下跌时，往往会出现这种迅速的暴跌。

And we know that when when Bitcoin does fall in in bear markets, it tends to be like these rapid, you know, falls.

它可能会先盘整一段时间，然后突然出现快速抛售。

It could all sort of base and chop for a little while, and then you get the these quick sell offs.

在这些时期，山寨币通常跌幅更大。

And so and altcoins typically sell off more during those periods.

所以

So