经济能承受加息吗？

欢迎收听本期报告。

Welcome to the report.

今天是2026年7月29日。

It is 07/29/2026.

今天的问题是：经济能否承受加息？

The question today, can the economy handle rate hikes?

迈克认为未来会有几次加息。

Mike sees a few of those on the horizon.

它们会不会戳破人工智能泡沫，也就是人工智能投机交易？

Will they pop the AI bubble, the AI speculation trade?

熊市已经持续了近十个月，而市场似乎正在为今天的美联储加息定价。

We are almost ten months into the bear, and the market, it seems like, is is pricing to Fed rate hikes today.

当然，今天下午还有联邦公开市场委员会会议。

Of course, there's an FOMC meeting this afternoon.

在录制今天的内容时，迈克和我还不知道会议的结果。

Mike and I don't yet know the results of that as we go into today's recording.

不过我们很快就能知道，所以听众朋友，你到时候可能就知道了。

We should find out though, so maybe, listener, you will know.

但今天的问题是，经济能否承受住迈克认为即将到来的加息——无论是这次会议还是下次会议。

But the question today is can the economy handle the rate hikes that Mike believes are headed its way either in this meeting or in the next one?

表面上看，经济似乎有点过热，但其中隐藏着一些脆弱性，我们接下来要讨论劳动力、住房，这可能会影响人工智能投机交易。

On the surface, the economy looks kinda hot, but there's some hidden fragility there that we're gonna talk about, labor, housing, and this might affect the AI speculation trade.

它可能已经见顶了。

It may have peaked.

如果已经见顶，纳斯达克下跌对我们的加密资产意味着什么？

If it has peaked, what does a falling Nasdaq mean for our crypto assets?

各位，提醒大家一定要听到最后。

And guys, wanna remind you to stick around to the end.

我有一句话送给大家，那就是“颠簸着陆”。

I've got one phrase for you, and that is bumpy landing.

我有一个价格目标，那就是五万五千点。

I've got one price target, which is 55 k.

我们会在今天节目最后解释这些是什么意思，这就是我们的预告。

We will explain what those things mean at the end of today's episode, so that's our tease.

麦克，我们是在美联储决议公布前几小时录制的。

We are recording, Mike, a few hours before the Fed decision drops.

决议将在东部时间下午2点公布。

That's gonna drop at 2PM eastern.

今天下午你会关注什么？

What are you watching for this afternoon?

对。

Yeah.

你知道，你刚才提到那个AI泡沫，感觉它可能正在这里开始消退。

You know, you mentioned, like, the the AI bubble, you know, might be kinda rolling over here.

感觉它正在被刺破，我觉得，主要是因为现在有很多关于可能加息的传言，你知道，很多资产都涨了四五倍。

It feels like it's it's getting pricked, I think, with just a lot of the the narratives out there right now with potential rate hikes, you know, a lot of the stuff that went up, you know, four or five x.

你知道，纳斯达克在两个月内涨了30%。

You know, Nasdaq went up 30% in, like, a two month period.

所以，现在情况开始有点回落，也是合理的。

And so it makes sense that, you know, things are starting to roll over a little bit.

我觉得很多关于加息的讨论，都是因为这种不确定性。

I think a lot of this uncertainty around rate hikes is driving a lot of this discussion.

上周我们就开始暗示，一些宏观风险正在积累。

We started to hint a little bit last week about some of these macro risks that we're starting to see build out there.

这周的报告更侧重于经济和美联储政策，以及我们预计的走向，这对纳斯达克意味着什么，对比特币又可能意味着什么。

This week's report really focuses more on the economy and Fed policy and kinda where we think we're going here and what that means for Nasdaq and then what that potentially means for Bitcoin.

比特币的表现一直优于纳斯达克，纳斯达克从6月初的高点下跌了大约9%。

Bitcoin has been outperforming Nasdaq, which is down, I think, about 9% from the highs in early June.

所以比特币一直表现更好。

So Bitcoin has been outperforming.

问题是，如果那个板块继续走弱，这种趋势还能持续吗？

The question is, is that going to continue if we see further weakness in in in that sector?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得今天的报告最后几乎走到了一个分岔路口。

I think today's report ends in kind of this this fork in the road almost.

问题就在于经济能不能承受住这些加息。

It's a question of whether the economy can handle these hikes or not.

如果承受不住，那比特币可能就会跌入你一直说的深度价值区间。

If it can't, then maybe Bitcoin goes into the deep value territory that you've been talking about so much.

如果能承受，那也许低点已经出现了。

If it can, then maybe the lows are already in.

你在今天的报告前面提到，你看到了很多卖家枯竭的迹象，可能还没完全到位，但很多信号已经出现了。

You indicate earlier in today's report that you're seeing a lot of signs of seller exhaustion, maybe not all the way through yet, but a lot of the signs are there.

我们接下来会聊这个。

So we'll get into that.

在录制的时候，比特币价格在六万五上方徘徊。

At the time of recording, Bitcoin price is hovering above 65 k.

有意思的是，纳斯达克从6月2日的高点已经跌了8%。

The Nasdaq, interestingly, is down 8% from its June 2 high.

我们来聊聊美联储和今天下午的决定，因为不管结果如何，我觉得未来还是很有可能会有两次加息。

Let's get into the Fed and the decision this afternoon because regardless of the decision this afternoon, I think you still see strong potential for two hikes on the horizon.

所以先退一步，说说你为什么认为美联储必须加息。

So let's back up and talk about why the Fed actually has to hike rates in your view.

我认为他们需要加息，因为市场在推动这一点。

I think they need to hike rates because the market is dictating that.

我觉得这里的关键是，美联储对市场状况非常敏感。

And I think that's kind of the important takeaway here is the Fed is is really responsive to market conditions.

要了解市场状况如何以及它们向美联储传递了什么信号，一个方法就是看看两年期国债。

And one way to kind of look at sort of what the market conditions are are doing and what they're telling the Fed is to just look at the two year.

这张图显示的是两年期国债收益率与联邦基金利率的对比。

This chart here is showing the the two year treasury versus the Fed funds rate.

蓝线是两年期国债，绿色虚线是联邦基金利率。

The two year is the blue line there, and the the Fed funds is the the dotted green line.

通常的情况是，两年期国债会领先，不管涨跌都是这样。

And what tends to happen here is the the two year leads, right, in both directions.

所以当两年期收益率和美联储的政策出现明显差距时，美联储往往会追上来。

So when you get a significant separation between that two year and what the Fed is doing, the Fed tends to catch up to it.

对吧？

Right?

你看这张图就能看出来。

You can kinda see it, you know, throughout this chart.

美联储会追上来，然后呢，情况往往就会往反方向走了。

The Fed will catch up to it, and then that's when, you know, things tend to reverse in the other direction.

我最近一直在关注的就是，两年期收益率和联邦基金利率之间的差距还在扩大。

And what I've been really kinda just watching here is the two year continuing to separate from the Fed funds rate.

现在它比联邦基金利率的上限大概高了55个基点。

It's about 55 basis points higher than sort of the top range of the Fed funds rate right now.

所以我一直在观察这个趋势，对我来说，这就是债券市场在发出信号，说你们太宽松了。

So I've been watching this build, and to me, it's the it's the bond market looking at things and saying, you you guys are too you're you're too loose.

就是说，现在经济其实很强劲。

Like, the the economy is really strong right now.

现在有通胀压力，我觉得债券市场有点不太相信通胀会回落这个说法。

We have inflationary impulses, and I think the bond market is kinda fading this idea that inflation may be rolling over.

六月份的CPI数据确实低了，你可能会想这应该会传导到国债市场利率上，但我们没看到这种情况。

We did have a lower CPI print in June, and you would think maybe that would feed through to to the rates to the treasury market, and we haven't seen that.

我们看到十年期收益率还在涨。

We've seen the ten year continue to rise.

两年期收益率也在涨。

We've seen the two year continue to rise.

所以在我看来，这就是市场在告诉美联储，他们需要加息。

So it's to me, it's the to the markets telling the Fed they they need to raise rates.

我觉得这很正常。

And I think that's normal.

对吧？

Right?

当经济表现良好、运行过热的时候，通常就会看到这种情况。

When the economy is doing well, when their economy is running hot, this is what you you tend to see.

目前失业率相当低。

Unemployment is is pretty low right now.

我们知道现在有大量的财政支出在进行。

We have we know there's tons of fiscal spending going on out there.

市场上也有大量的人工智能资本。

There's a ton of AI capital in the market.

所以实体经济看起来表现不错。

So the real the real economy seems to be doing well.

我们之前聊过ISM指数。

You know, we've we've talked about the ISM.

ISM指数在制造业领域一直表现良好。

The ISM has has been doing has been doing well in the manufacturing sector.

我们正处于扩张阶段。

We're in expansion mode there.

银行贷款也在增加。

Bank lending is up.

所以，现在看经济的整体健康状况，我觉得还不错，这也是为什么他们不得不加息。

So when you look at sort of the, I think, the health of the economy right now, it looks pretty good, and that's why they have to to hike rates.

我想做的是往前看，说，好吧。

What I'm trying to do is kinda look forward and say, okay.

如果他们开始加息，会带来什么样的连锁反应？

If they start hiking, what are the what is going to be sort of the knock on?

这会产生什么样的多米诺骨牌效应？

What's the domino effect on that?

我们接下来会稍微深入探讨一下这意味着什么，但这感觉越来越像2022年的情况，当时也是同样的动态，两年期收益率飞速上升，你在图表上就能看到。

Which we'll get into a little bit here as we start to kind of forecast out what this means, but it's starting to feel very similar to kinda like, you know, 2022 when we had this same dynamic where the the two year was racing past, and you can see it in the chart.

两年期收益率超过了联邦基金利率。

The two year was racing past the Fed funds rate.

美联储不得不追赶这个利率。

The Fed had to catch up to that.

一旦市场确信通胀已经见顶，尽管美联储在2022年全年继续加息，我们实际上开始看到市场回暖。

Once the market became convinced that inflation had peaked, that's when, you know, we actually started to see the markets come back even though the Fed continued to hike throughout 2022.

那年的市场大概在十月份左右触底。

The markets bottomed in, like, October or so of that year.

所以我们现在可能也处于类似的情况。

So we may be kind of in a similar setup right now.

我明白你提出的观点，就是市场正在发出明确的信号，告诉美联储需要做什么，以及最终会做什么。

So I understand the the idea that that you're pushing forward, which is the the market is sending clear signals as to what the Fed needs to do and what the Fed will do ultimately.

而且市场明显在淡化通胀下降的趋势。

And and the market is clearly fading the inflation drop.

六月份有个不错的通胀数据，CPI降到了3.5%。

So there was a nice inflation headline number, a CPI dropped to 3.5% in June.

但市场似乎在说，这个趋势不可持续。

The market it seems to be saying like that's not durable.

通胀问题又要卷土重来了。

Inflation is going to be back on the menu.

但我得问一句，美联储在这整个过程中难道不是独立行动的吗？

But I have to ask the question, isn't the Fed an independent actor in all of this?

为什么美联储就非得按市场的意思来呢？

Why is it the case that they have to do what the market wants to do?

那我再给你说个情况。

So I'll give you another scenario here.

也许美联储就是决定不把通胀当回事了。

Maybe the Fed just decides inflation is not a priority.

通胀根本不需要去打压。

Inflation does not need to be fought.

或者还有另一种可能，就是整个政府层面来看，美联储独立这个说法其实未必站得住脚。

Or there's another case here which is the wider government, the idea of an independent Fed is like maybe not quite true.

而且，联邦基金利率越高，美国政府需要支付的债务利息反而越低。

And of course, the higher the Fed fund rates, the lower the interest payment the US government has to make on its debt.

你可能会觉得，这应该能起到一个平衡作用吧。

And you'd think that that would be a counterbalance to all of this.

另外还有特朗普这个不确定因素，就像新一届美联储主席人选一样。

And then there's also the Trump wild card card which is like the new Fed share.

我是说，按照特朗普的说法，他不是应该降息吗？

I mean, wasn't he supposed to, according to Trump, drop rates?

对。

Right.

那美联储的独立行动呢？他们难道不能选择抵制这些市场信号和指标吗？

So what about the independent action of the Fed and why don't they just like they could just choose to resist some of these market signals and indicators.

这难道不是一种可能性吗？

Is that not a possibility?

这是一种可能性。

It's a possibility.

我觉得，那种可能性——也就是新美联储主席上任后会跟总统保持一致，然后我们会看到降息——这种说法在市场上仍然存在，像是一个叙事。

I think that I think I think that that possibility and the idea that this new Fed chair was gonna come in, he's going to align with the president, and we're gonna see, you know, rate cuts, I think that still persists, like, as a narrative in the market.

我的看法是，这可能更多是直觉，但根据上周的首次新闻发布会，以及美联储主席和其他理事会成员发出的很多信息，给我的感觉是，他们需要恢复一些信誉，而基本任务有两个。

My view on this is, you know, I just maybe this is just kinda more instincts, but I just think based on that that initial press conference we had last week, a lot of the messaging coming out, not just from the Fed chair, but also from other governors on the board, it it feels like me that to me, like, they need to restore some some credibility, and there's basically two mandates.

一个是通胀，另一个是劳动力市场。

There's there's inflation, and then there's the labor market.

所以通常情况下，当其中一方表现疲软时，他们就会开始支持那一方。

And so, typically, when one side of that is, you know, is showing weakness, they tend to start to support that side of the the equation.

我觉得劳动力市场，表面上看，失业率是4.2%。

And I would say that the the labor market, you know, on the surface, unemployment is at 4.2%.

对。

Mhmm.

目前失业救济申请数量很低，而且我们知道通胀率仍然高于目标水平。

Unemployment claims are very low right now, and we know that there's you know, inflation is above target.

所以我认为，从维护信誉的角度出发，他们现在必须把重点放在那一方面，而不是

And so I I just think that they have to from a credibility perspective, they have to focus on that side of the equation right now rather

而不是另一边。

than side.

通胀这边，得先把通胀降下来。

Inflation side, get inflation down.

所以，我觉得，现在来看，今天这次会议加息的可能性——也许会议已经开始了——

And so, you know, I I sort of think, you know, right now, I think the odds of a of a rate hike from today's today's meeting, which maybe the meeting will have have commenced.

但等我们发布这个之后，今天加息的概率大概是33%，这本身就挺有意思的。

But once we've published this, the the odds of a hike today are about 33, which is kind of interesting in and of itself.

这可以说是很长一段时间以来，我们对美联储会议决策的不确定性最高的一次，而这跟缺乏前瞻指引有关。

That's like the highest sort of, like, uncertainty in terms of what the Fed is going to do going into a a meeting we've had in in some time, and this is related to lack of forward guidance.

所以这本身就挺有意思的。

And so that's kind of interesting in itself.

我觉得他们今天不会加息。

I don't think they're going to hike today.

不过我也觉得，今天确实有可能加息。

I I do think it's it's possible we we get the hike today.

但你说这对你和市场来说会是个意外吧。

But that would be a surprise, you're saying, to you and to the market.

如果今天真的加息了，我估计，而且这……

If we do get the hike today, I would expect, you know, and and it's

就像是一个

like a

而且是一次鹰派加息。

trough and it's a hawkish hike.

这可能会让市场大幅下跌，我觉得会跌得挺厉害的。

That would push the markets, you know, down, I I think, significantly.

我今天其实不太预期会加息，主要是因为之前那次通胀数据比较低。

I'm not really expecting the hike today primarily because we had that lower inflation inflation print.

如果上次会议没加息，然后通胀数据又降了，那他们现在很难再坚持加息。

If you didn't if you didn't hike last last meeting and then you get a lower inflation print, it's kind of hard for them to to sort of stand by that.

所以我今天不觉得会加息，但我认为通胀很可能会再次回升。

So I'm not really expecting it today, but I do think inflation is probably going to tick up again.

几周后会有更多通胀数据，那就会为九月份的加息铺平道路。

We'll have more inflation data in a few weeks, and then that would set the stage for the September hike.

我大概预期今天不加息，但可能会有更多鹰派言论，暗示九月份加息。

And I'm sort of expecting, like, a, you know, a no hike today, but more of, like, hawkish commentary maybe about that September hike coming forward.

然后看年底，市场目前定价十二月再加息的可能性超过50%。

And then when you look out sort of through the end of the year where we've got, like, a a greater than 50% chance of another hike in December that the market is is currently pricing.

所以，对，我只是觉得从信誉的角度来看，他们不能忽视通胀。

So, yeah, I just think from a credibility perspective, like, they they can't just, you know, ignore inflation.

而且当经济像这样过热时，要么降息，要么可能就按兵不动。

And when the economy is running hot like this, like, cut rates or or potentially maybe maybe just hold.

但走着瞧吧。

But we'll see.

今天有会议，所以今天就能知道结果。

We we got the meeting today, so so we'll find out today.

那么问题来了，如果美联储真的加息，比如说今年再加两次，经济能承受得住吗？

Then the question is, if the Fed does hike, let's say, twice for the rest of the year, can the economy take

承受得住吗？

it?

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

从表面上看，经济似乎确实做好了吸收更高利率的准备，你也提到了这一点。

The economy does on the surface appear, and you make the note, to be pretty poised to absorb some higher rates.

我的意思是，从一些劳动力数据来看，至少表面上是这样，当然还有一些GDP之类的指标，情况看起来都还不错。

I mean, things are looking fairly good out there with some of the labor data at least on the surface and certainly some of the kind of the GDP type metrics.

股市表现也还行，尽管纳斯达克跌了8%。

Stock market is still doing okay even though the 8% down from Nasdaq.

人工智能简直是一大助力。

Just AI has been such a boom.

但当你深入观察，就会发现系统内部其实更脆弱一些。

But when you take a peek under the hood, you see a bit more fragility in the system.

比如，你会看到一些薄弱环节，整个经济结构可能在这些地方出现裂痕。

Like, you see some fault lines where this whole economic setup could crack.

你关注的主要薄弱环节在哪里？

Where are the main fault lines that you're looking at?

对。

Yeah.

而且，你知道，宏观经济是个大话题，所以可以往很多不同方向展开。

And, you know, macro is a is a big topic, so this can go in lots of different directions.

我主要关注的是劳动力市场。

What I am primarily focused on is the labor market.

我认为，劳动力市场实际上决定了经济的健康状况，因为它决定了消费者的健康状况，而消费者占GDP的68%。

The labor market really determines, I think, the the health of the economy because the labor market determines the health of the consumer, and the consumer is 68% of of GDP.

所以当我深入观察劳动力市场时，我们谈到过，失业率现在是4.2%。

And so when I look kind of under the hood of the labor market, we talked about, you know, unemployment's at 4.2%.

失业救济申请一直很低。

Unemployment claims have have been low.

当我们看每月的就业数据时，它开始有点下降趋势。

When we look at the monthly payroll activity, it's starting to trend down a little bit.

所以几个月前我们增加了21.4万个工作岗位。

So we were we we added 214,000 jobs a few months ago.

上个月我们增加了5.7万个，所以现在正朝着这个方向小幅下降。

We added 57,000 last month, so so we're trending down a little bit in this direction.

再进一步看，比如离职率的情况，这指的是人们自愿离职。

And when you kind of even take it a step further and you look at sort of, like, what what are the quit rates doing out there, this is like voluntary leave for people.

所以当经济健康、就业机会多的时候，你会看到很多人员流动。

So when the economy is healthy, when there's lots of jobs out there, you see a lot of movement.

很多人会主动辞职。

You see a lot of people, you know, just voluntarily leaving their jobs.

但我们最近没看到这种情况。

We haven't been seeing that.

这个数字一直在下降，我觉得这说明劳动力市场对跳槽找更好的机会没什么信心。

We've seen it seen this been dropping, and I just think this is showing that there's not a lot of confidence within the workforce about, you know, kind of, like, greener pastures.

对吧？

Right?

能辞掉工作、加薪、去别的地方。

Being able to leave a job, get a raise, go somewhere else.

这些机会看起来并不存在。

Those opportunities don't really look like they're there.

我们再看其他调查，比如关于工作机会是否充足之类的，这些指标也在下滑。

When we look at other surveys about, like, you know, jobs plentiful, things like that also also in decline.

所以，就业数据可能正在走软。

So, like, payrolls may be rolling over.

看起来劳动力市场现在有点僵住了。

It looks like the workforce is kind of stuck right now.

然后看个人储蓄率，也挺有意思的。储蓄率，也就是个人可支配收入减去个人支出后的部分，一直在下降。

And then when you look at the personal savings rate, kind of interesting and just that the savings rate, which is the, you know, people's disposable income less their personal outlays has been in decline.

实际上，现在处于历史低位，大概只有3%。

It's actually, you know, at one of the historically low levels right now at, like, 3%.

我觉得，回顾一下从1959年以来的历史数据，我们有95%的时间都高于这个水平。

And I think when you when you look at sort of the history of that going back to 1959, we've been above that level for 95% of the time.

所以，基本上，家庭似乎有点吃力，因为可支配收入被通胀挤压了。

So so, basically, it looks like households are struggling a little bit with their disposable income getting pinched by inflation.

工资增长跟不上通胀，这导致人们可能不得不动用储蓄来弥补这个缺口。

You know, wages are not really keeping up with inflation, and that's causing people to potentially tap into savings to cover that to cover that gap there.

所以，对，当我看到这些数据时，我就开始想，好吧。

So, yeah, when I when I look at that, that then leads me to think, okay.

嗯，如果劳动力市场实际上比表面看起来要弱一些，那就意味着消费端可能会面临一些压力。

Well, if the labor market maybe is a little bit weaker under the hood, then that would mean that there's potentially some pain coming on the consumption side.

我们之前聊过消费者信心，这个指标对政治和未来走向来说挺重要的。

So we've talked about consumer sentiment and that being an important chart for kind of politics and where things are heading.

我觉得消费者信心这么低，从数据里就能看出来。

And I think with consumer sentiment so low, you can kinda see it in the data here.

可以看到，可支配收入正在下降。

You can see that, you know, disposable income is is dropping.

我们认为这是因为通胀，而人们的工资并没有跟上通胀的步伐。

We can see that we think that's because of inflation, and people's wages are not necessarily keeping up with those.

我觉得这正在渗透到那些信心调查中，我们在数据里也能看到这一点。

I think that's bleeding into sort of those sentiment surveys, and we're seeing that in in the data here as well.

所以，表面之下，如果加息的话，可能已经出现了一些潜在的裂痕。

So, you know, it just kinda looks like under the surface, you know, there could be some potential cracks if you raise rates.

那这对银行继续放贷的能力意味着什么呢？

You know, what does that mean for the ability for for banks to to continue to to lend?

我一直在关注的一个指标是收紧贷款标准的银行比例。

One thing that I've been been looking at is the percentage of banks that are tightening their lending standards.

这种情况在加息或需求下降时是不是很常见？

Is this something you typically see when there's, you know, rate hikes and maybe lower demand?

银行会开始稍微收紧一些。

Banks will start to pull back a little bit.

我们看到这个比例在下降，而过去六到十二个月里银行贷款一直在增加。

We've been seeing that drop, and we've been seeing bank lending increase over the last six to twelve months.

所以如果这个趋势开始逆转，那对招聘、资本支出以及劳动力市场的整体健康意味着什么，这就是我想说的。

So if that starts to roll over, you know, what does that mean for hiring, for CapEx, and just kind of the health of the labor market is kind of where I'm going with this.

但总的来说，经济表面上看挺健康的，可如果加息了，这影响会怎么传导呢？

But, yeah, just, you know, the economy looks healthy on the surface, but if we get these rate hikes, how does that feed through?

这对流动性意味着什么，这就是我们讨论的核心。

What does that mean for liquidity is kind of the setup here.

这感觉有点像2022年，那时候经济也挺健康的，但通胀来了，美联储不得不加息。

And it feels similar to, you know, 2022 when I when I go back where you did have a pretty healthy economy, but you had a a situation where you had inflation that the Fed had had to hike.

基本上，那就像刺破了一个泡沫，暂时把资金从风险资产里抽走了。

And, basically, that just, like, kinda pricked and pulled money out of risk assets for a little while.

我们并没有陷入衰退。

We didn't get a recession.

我不是在预测衰退，但确实让市场重新调整了一下。

I'm not calling for a recession, but you sort of reset things a little bit.

我们聊过AI相关的交易，几个月内涨了30%。

I think the AI trade, we talked about, you know, 30% move in a few months.

现在这种涨势开始回落了，这也很合理。

We're seeing that kind of come off now, which which makes sense.

所以感觉我们正走向一个调整期，而围绕通胀和美联储政策的讨论，我认为会是主要推动因素。

So feels like we're we're kind of heading for a little bit of a reset here, and this discussion around inflation and and and Fed policy, I think, is gonna be the the primary driver of this.

好的。

Okay.

所以，让我先确认一下你的思路，然后我再补充你在报告里强调的另一个数据点——在建房屋数量实际上在下降。

So let me make sure I understand your setup before I do adding another data point that you emphasized in the report, which is homes under construction actually down.

你说，考虑到住房对利率的敏感性，而房地产大约占经济的16%，通常是领先指标，现在在建房屋数量比2022年峰值下降了25%。

And you say this, given its sensitivity to interest rates, housing, which is roughly 16% of the economy is typically a leading indicator, and now we're seeing homes under construction down 25% thunder late twenty two peak.

所以，这又是一个潜在的裂缝，如果你仔细看，还是能察觉到的。

So that's another fault line that if you squint, you can kind of see.

让我确认一下你目前认为可能发生的情况，也许这就是你的基本判断——美联储为了应对即将到来的通胀，会加息。

Let me make sure I understand the setup that you think is a possibility here and maybe is your base case right now, which is the Fed raises rates, hikes rates in order to fight inflation that's coming the horizon.

他们认为自己有足够的时间这么做，因为经济看起来相当强劲，劳动力市场也相当稳健。

They think they have a long enough leash to do this because the economy looks pretty strong and labor looks fairly robust.

看起来并不疲软。

It doesn't look weak.

但不幸的是，他们实际上是在这些裂缝和表面上看不到的脆弱性面前加息，这可能会引发一种螺旋式下行的局面。

But unfortunately what they'll be doing is they'll be raising rates into these fault lines and into some fragility they don't necessarily see on the surface and that's going to cause kind of a downward spiral type of scenario here.

我这样理解对吗？或者你会给这个故事补充什么？

Am I connecting the dots correct or what would you add to that story?

对，我觉得是这样。

Yeah I think so.

我认为房地产市场确实值得关注。

I think you know the housing market is definitely something to keep an eye on.

你知道，更高的房贷利率对住房市场不利。

You know higher mortgage rates are you know bad for housing.

这是经济中很大的一部分。

It's a big part of the part of the economy.

如果再把商业地产也算进去，它依赖于再融资和低利率，那么经济中很大一块其实一直在经历某种滚动式衰退，从建筑数据里也能看出来。

When you factor in commercial real estate also, which is dependent on, you know, refinancings and and lower interest rates, big swath of the the economy that's kind of been going through somewhat of a rolling recession, and you can kinda see it in the the construction data there.

所以，随着房贷利率上升，我们对新房的需求确实减少了。

So with higher mortgage rates, we just haven't seen as much demand for for new housing.

那张图让我觉得有意思的是，住房在建量从峰值下降了大约25%，但就业数据却没有下降。

And that chart's interesting to me just because, you know, that we've rolled off, you know, 25% or so from the peak of of housing under construction, but that payroll line has not come off.

所以，如果我们在这种情况下加息，就业数据是不会好转的。

So if we do get rate hikes in it in a in this that that's not going to turn up.

如果那条建筑业的线不回升，那你就会觉得就业数据那条线很可能得降下来才能跟它匹配。

That construction line is not gonna turn up, then you would think that the payroll the the payrolls line is probably gonna have to come down to meet it.

而且住房市场往往是领先指标，因为它对国债利率和利率变化特别敏感。

And and housing is tends to be a leading indicator just because it's so sensitive to to to the to the to treasury rates and what's going on with interest rates.

所以这确实值得关注，不过我觉得你刚才的总结基本上把情况说清楚了——经济还是挺强劲的，但这些加息可能会让局面稍微冷却一点。

So definitely something to keep an eye on there, but I think your summary there basically, you know, covers kind of the setup here where the economy is pretty strong, but but these rate hikes are likely going to potentially prick things a little bit.

我关注的是信用利差。

What where where I'm looking is, like, the the credit spreads.

你看信用利差，其实就是信用市场在定价，衡量企业贷款里有多少风险。

So when you look at credit spreads, which is basically the credit markets pricing, you know, how much how much risk is in corporate lending.

对吧？

Right?

它基本上就是国债利率和企业能拿到的融资利率之间的差额。

It's basically the spread between what the treasury rates are and what what corporations are able to get financing at.

现在这个差额也非常低。

That is also very low right now.

所以这基本上是在告诉我们，市场，尤其是信贷市场，对这些风险有点过于自满了。

So it's basically telling us that the market, the credit market looks a little bit complacent related to some of these risks.

如果加息的话，我估计信贷利差可能会开始慢慢扩大。

And if you get rate hikes, I would imagine that credit spreads could start to to creep up.

人们会开始关注这些公司的资产负债表。

People start to look at the balance sheets of these companies.

它们要再融资债务就会变得更困难。

It's harder for them to to refinance their debts.

这可能会引发我之前提到的，银行基本上会收紧对某些公司的贷款标准。

That could feed into what I mentioned earlier with with the ability or or or banks basically tightening lending standards on some of those companies.

我们知道外面有很多私人信贷方面的担忧，这些担忧可能会逐渐显现出来。

We know there's a lot of private credit concerns out there that could start to feed through a little bit.

所以，我觉得这些加息吧，是的。

So, you know, I just kinda think these rate hikes are yes.

经济方面，我不认为我们会陷入衰退或类似的情况，但它确实会引发一些重新洗牌。

The the economy's you know, I don't think we're I don't think we're gonna tip into a recession or anything like that, but it is going to cause some some reshuffling out there.

这可能会让流动性状况稍微收紧一些。

It's going to probably tighten liquidity conditions a little bit.

而且我们已经看到，我觉得已经在发生了，纳斯达克从六月初的高点已经跌了9%。

And we're already see I think we're seeing this already, you know, playing out with the Nasdaq down 9% since since the peaks in in early June.

我们也看到了，内存方面。

We've seen, you know, the memory.

一些内存股已经跌了40%，对，40%了。

Some of these memory stocks are down 40, you know, 40% already.

有些甚至跌了50%。

Some of them even 50%.

所以情况确实开始有点松动了，指数本身也在往下走。

So things are definitely, you know, kind of starting to unravel out there, and the index itself is starting to come down as well.

而且我们还没等到实际加息，也许市场已经在消化这个预期了。

So and we haven't had the rate the the the actual hikes, and maybe this is just getting priced in.

等真正加息的时候，可能并没有我们想的那么糟糕。

And when we actually get the hikes, it's not as bad as as we think.

但我想说的是，我认为加密货币市场已经提前消化了大部分这些动作，但这可能会把我们推入我们一直在讨论的那些深度价值区域，随着我们继续前进。

But my my sort of where I'm going with it is I think the crypto markets have mostly front run most of this action, but I think this could potentially tip us into those deep value territories that we've that we've been talking about as we move forward here.

所以这就是我主要关注的点。

So that's really kinda what I'm what I'm watching for.

明白了。

I see.

所以现在我们看到了完整的宏观布局，以及你认为可能发生的情况，以及它如何与加密货币联系起来。

So now we see the full macro setup and what what you think could play out and how that connects to crypto.

听起来你关注的是信用利差。

And it sounds like the things you're you're watching are the credit spreads.

所以，就是那种更高的利差。

So, you know, kind of the the higher spreads.

如果你看到更多这种情况，那就证实了这个判断是正确的。

If you see more of that, then that's confirmation that this case is correct.

还有通胀。

Inflation as well.

下一份CPI报告将在8月12日发布，也就是几周后。

The next CPI report is due August 12, so that's coming up in a couple of weeks.

另外，美元一直异常强势，我想美元走强可能进一步印证了你刚才说的那个宏观格局。

Also the dollar has been unusually strong and I guess a stronger dollar would indicate that what we you know, it's more confirmation of the setup that you're talking about here.

是这样吗？

Is that correct?

对。

Yeah.

美元呢，已经突破了100这个关键点位。

The dollar, you know, has been sort of breaking out about above a 100, which is kind of a key level.

有意思的是，美联储还没加息呢，这更像是美元相对于欧元、日元等其他主要经济体货币的定价，而那些经济体其实一直在加息。

And what's interesting about that is the Fed hasn't actually hiked yet, so that's kind of like pricing the dollar relative to the euro, the yen, all these other major major economies, which have actually been been hiking.

而美联储却一直按兵不动。

And and they've they've been on been on pause.

所以，

So,

可以说，市场更多是在预期美联储加息，基本上就是这样。

you know, we more of the market, like, predicting Fed hikes, basically, this

美元走强。

dollar strength.

对。

Yeah.

这很好。

It's good.

我们看到美元走强，这其实意味着人们正在抛售其他资产，买入美元。

We're seeing the dollar strength, which just means people are, you know, selling other assets and buying dollars.

对吧？

Right?

所以，当纳斯达克下跌时，看到这种情况是合理的。

So it would kinda make sense to see that when Nasdaq is coming down.

其他一些主要经济体现在暂停加息，而美元却在上涨。

Some of these other major economies are now on pause, and the dollar is is rising.

如果那些主要经济体真的在降息，而美元却在上涨，那对我来说就更有道理了——他们在放松政策，所以美元相对它们重新定价是合理的。

If if if if those those other major economies were actually cutting rates and the dollar was rising, it would make more sense to me that, like, they're easing, so it makes sense that the dollar would would reprice against that.

但它们现在都在暂停，而美联储甚至还没加息。

But they're on they're on pause, and the Fed hasn't even hiked yet.

所以如果我们开始加息，进一步拉开与它们的差距，你可能会认为这也会通过美元表现出来。

So if we start hiking and separating ourselves even more from them, you would think that that would get expressed potentially through the dollar as well.

美元走强通常对流动性条件不利，所以这也是需要关注的一点。

Rising dollars tends to be, you know, bad for liquidity conditions, and so that's something to to to to keep an eye on as well.

好的。

Okay.

那么，我觉得这就是你正在考虑的整体局面：美联储为了对抗通胀而加息。

So this is where we get to the full setup, I think, that you are you're contemplating here, which is Fed raises rates in order to fight inflation.

他们认为经济能承受得住。

They think the economy can take it.

他们认为经济足够强劲。

They think it's strong enough.

他们在这方面其实搞错了。

They're kind of wrong on that front.

市场会出现避险抛售，风险资产可能会被抛售。

There's a risk off sell off, maybe a sell off of risk assets.

人工智能交易的那些投机行为可能已经到头了。

AI trade speculations kind of could be over.

在这种情况下，纳斯达克会不会再跌10%到15%？

Could the Nasdaq fall another 10 to 15% in that scenario?

你说这完全有可能。

You say that's certainly possible.

你觉得加密货币基本上已经提前消化了这次回调。

You think that crypto has mostly front run this correction.

所以它已经承受了打击。

So it's already taken its lumps.

它已经经历了痛苦。

It's already taken its pain.

不过，这最后一波恐慌性抛售风险资产，可能会把比特币砸到你的公允价值目标以下，甚至接近深度价值区间。

However, this last kind of capitulation risk off asset sell could then send Bitcoin to below your fair value targets into something closer to deep value.

你把这叫做颠簸着陆，而那个深度价值区域的价格点，我记得大概是五万五左右。

You call that a bumpy landing and the price point for that deep value territory is around 55 ks, I think.

我记得在之前几期节目里我问过你，如果你在订单簿上挂限价单，你会把比特币的买入价设在哪里？

And that's where I recall in the last couple of episodes I asked you, hey, if you had limit orders on on the books, where would you set your Bitcoin buy price?

你当时说的是五万五。

And you said 55 ks.

所以这就是我们怎么跌到五万五的故事。

So that's a story for how we get to 55 ks.

咱们聊聊那之后的事。

Let's talk about after that story.

市场开始恐慌。

So markets freak out.

美联储会怎么做？美联储下一步会采取什么行动？

Does the Fed what does the Fed do next?

我记得你这里提到过，你在讨论美联储短期内可能采取的行动，以及长期内可能采取的不同策略。

I think you have this line in here that you're you're talking about what the Fed might do in the short run versus what they might do in the long run.

而在长期

And in the

长期来看，我们可能会面临更高的利率，我记得你是这么说的，而且你很快就要发布一份相关的报告。

long run, we might be in for, I think you said, higher rates, and you were gonna, you know, publish a report on that soon.

但假设这个情况真的发生了。

But let's say this whole scenario happens.

比特币跌到了深度价值区域，也就是五万五。

We get the deep value 55 k.

纳斯达克也出现抛售。

There's a Nasdaq sell off.

那美联储会怎么做呢？

What does the Fed do?

他们就得开始放松利率，来帮助阻止劳动力市场的进一步恶化。

They have to then begin relaxing rates in order to help stop the bleeding in the labor markets.

对吧？

Correct?

那加密货币资产会是什么情况？

And then what's the setup for crypto assets?

对。

Yeah.

所以我觉得，如果真出现加息和抛售，市场的注意力会转向通胀，并且开始确信通胀已经见顶。

So I think, you know, if we get these hikes and we get we get the sell off, I think the the market's attention will start to look to turn to inflation and and and getting confident that inflation has peaked.

我认为当市场确信通胀已经见顶时，市场就会开始复苏。

I think when the market becomes confident that inflation has peaked, I think the markets will start to recover.

然后在那之后，接下来的关键就是下一步怎么走。

And then and then moving forward out out of that, it really comes comes down to what's the next move.

我预计美联储可能会暂停加息，让市场消化一下在那段暂停期间实际加了多少次息。

I would expect the Fed to probably pause and sort of let the market digest what however many hikes that that we actually get during that pause period.

看看通胀和劳动力市场的情况，这决定了接下来的阶段怎么走。

You look at inflation, look at what's happening in the labor market, and that's gonna determine the the next phase from there.

如果他们加息导致市场崩盘，真的引发大问题，那他们就得迅速应对。

If they if they hike rates and they break things and they really cause a a problem, then they're gonna have to react pretty quickly to that.

我真的觉得，这列火车根本停不下来，我们正朝着那个方向走，财政赤字是不会消失的。

I I really think I really think that, you know, the nothing stops this train story is is ultimately where we're heading, and that's just that these fiscal deficits are not going anywhere.

所有这些支出，加上人工智能成了国家安全问题，这些因素都很关键。

All this spending, the fact that AI is a national security concern, like, all of these things really matter.

所以我看不出有什么理由，他们会对市场崩盘坐视不管。

And so I don't see a scenario where they don't respond to things actually breaking out there.

而正是在这种背景下，我认为对比特币的需求会重新成为焦点。

And that's the setup where I think demand for Bitcoin really comes back back into the equation.

你提到，我开始思考更大的图景是什么？

You mentioned, like, you know, I'm starting to do I'm I'm thinking a lot about, like, what's the bigger picture?

我们讨论过去全球化，现在正处在全球贸易重组的进程中。

We've talked about deglobalization and what you know, we're in the we're in the middle of restructuring of really global trade.

我们正在经历去全球化，某种程度上是一种新的世界秩序。

We're we're we're going through de deglobalization, kind of a new world order.

我们之前讨论过这对未来能源价格可能意味着什么。

We've talked about what that can can mean for energy prices moving forward.

你知道，还有人口结构的问题，很多婴儿潮一代正在逐渐退出劳动力市场。

You know, we have demographics, and a lot of baby boomers are are kind of rolling out of the workforce.

从宏观层面来看，有很多因素似乎都指向结构性通胀。

There's just many things going on from a high level that sort of point to structural inflation, I think.

所以有可能我们会经历几次加息，然后暂停，再慢慢消化这种情况。

And so it's possible that, you know, we get these, you know, a couple rate hikes, we get a pause, and we kinda digest what what that looks like.

也许我们根本不会迎来降息。

And maybe we don't get a rate.

我目前的想法是，我们可能会经历某种降息周期，但也有可能不会。

You know, I'm sort of thinking we're gonna get some sort of rate cutting cycle, but it's possible that that we don't.

要知道，上次美联储降息时，长期收益率曲线实际上是上升的。

I mean, last time the Fed cut rates, the long end of the the yield curve actually rose.

所以我们未来可能也会处于那种环境之中。

So we could be in in that type of environment moving forward.

那么，这看起来会是什么样呢？

And, yeah, what does that look like?

在上一个周期里，美联储实际上在缩减资产负债表，但我们看到比特币涨了六七倍。

We we we watched Bitcoin go up six, seven x during a period where the Fed was actually reducing its balance sheet in this in this last cycle.

所以我认为，即使利率结构性上升，或者美联储没有大规模购买债务、搞量化宽松或收益率曲线控制，比特币依然可以表现良好。不过，我觉得我们可能正朝着那种环境走去。

So I don't think that this means if even if we have structurally higher rates or the Fed is not, you know, out there buying up all the debt and doing doing QE or yield curve control, I don't think you have to have that for a Bitcoin to do well, but I do think that that's probably the the environment that we're heading heading into.

要么是因为财政支出规模存在结构性问题，以及我们维持经济运转所需的各种措施。

It's either because we have these structural issues with with the amount of fiscal spend and just what we need to do to keep the economy humming.

这确实是个棘手的局面。

It's a it's a it's a tough situation.

也许我们最终不得不实施收益率曲线控制，才能让一切运转起来。

There might we might have to do yield curve control at some point to to make everything work.

我认为，在这种环境下，黄金、比特币这类风险资产迟早会重新走强。

And I think this is the environment where gold, Bitcoin, you know, risk assets come come back at some point.

而这正是我试图布局的方向。

And and that's really what I'm trying to position for.