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我们是不是已经提前进入牛市了？
Do we have an early bull reset on our hands?
这就是问题所在。
That is the question.
欢迎收看本期报告。
Welcome to the report.
今天是2026年10月14日。
It is 10/14/2026.
今天的问题是，牛市初期到底是什么感觉？
The question today, what does an early bull market actually feel like?
我们要把2023年初和现在的2026年底做个对比，看看我们现在处于什么阶段，应该怎么跟踪市场，应该有什么样的感受。
We're gonna compare early twenty twenty three to late twenty twenty six where we are now and kind of assess how we should be tracking and how we should be feeling.
提前剧透一下，感觉可能比你想象的要糟糕一些。
And spoiler alert, it might feel a little bit worse than you think.
说到牛市初期，你可能会觉得兴奋、看涨，但牛市初期并不总是那样。
When we say the words early bull, makes you feel, I don't know, exuberant, bullish, but early bulls don't always play out like that.
我们会聊聊为什么，以及这个时代的关键价格信号，为什么是五十周移动平均线。
We'll talk about why, and also the key price signal of the era, why it's the fifty week moving average.
比特币的五十周移动平均线是值得关注的关键数字。
Bitcoin's fifty week moving average is the number to watch.
现在也有一些早期牛市重置的机会。
There's also some early bull reset opportunities at hand.
山寨币本月下跌，进入十月后进一步走低，所以今天的报告里有一些值得关注的机会。
We have altcoins down on the month and and down further into October, so there's some alpha in today's report.
关于这个周期可能成为“索拉纳”的币种，出现了一个新的可能性，迈克对此给出了一个概率性的看法。
An emerging possibility on what could be the Solana of this cycle Mike gives a probabilistic take there.
另外，山寨币降温，在这个降温机会区间里，哪些山寨币是最好的选择？
Also, altcoin cool down, what are the best altcoins in this cool down opportunity bracket?
请坚持看到最后。
Stick around to the end.
我们会讨论迈克投资组合中的优质币种。
We'll discuss the quality names in Mike's portfolio.
他……
He...
他现在考虑的那些东西，已经处于超卖水平了，这些就是重新布局的机会。
The things he's thinking are now sitting at oversell levels, these reset opportunities.
好的。
Okay.
迈克，在今天的报告里，我觉得有一句话特别触动我。
Mike, in today's report, I think here's the line that that got me.
我觉得我们从九月初开始就一直看涨。
I think we've been bulled up since early September.
然后你对比了一下，你回顾了2023年同一时期，也就是上个周期早期的牛市阶段，你写了这样一段话。
And then you compared, you went back and you looked at 2023 at the same time, the early bull period of of last cycle, you wrote this.
2023年，从我们现在所处的这个位置开始，比特币横盘震荡了将近七个月，期间有两次17%的回调，每次大约持续两个月。
In 2023, from the exact spot we're in now, Bitcoin chopped sideways for nearly seven months including two negative 17% corrections that played out over roughly two months each.
横盘震荡，两次下跌，每次回调17%。
Chopped sideways, down twice, 17% corrections.
我得说，有时候我觉得横盘市场比资产涨跌还难熬，因为至少涨跌的时候你还能看到点动静，感觉有事发生，但你说的2023年那种市场，大家其实挺麻木的。
I gotta say like sometimes I feel sideways markets are just like harder than when the assets are going up or down because at least you kinda, you get some movement, you feel like something's happening, but what you're you're saying is 2023 was kind of an apathy type market.
那我们就从投资者的情绪角度来聊聊吧。
So let's talk to the investor listening from an emotional standpoint, guess.
带我们回到2023年。
Take us back to 2023.
我知道你当时在场。
I know you were there.
那时候的牛市初期是什么感觉？你又怎么把这些经验应用到现在的？
What did the early bull market feel like then, and how are you parlaying that into now?
问得好。
Great question.
对，这确实……
And, yeah, it's...
我们现在处在一个挺有意思的位置。
We're in a interesting spot here right now.
我觉得如果你回到早期牛市那会儿，大概就是2023年2月、3月，刚从FTX事件中走出来的时候，至少对我来说感觉是这样的，我也很好奇你怎么看。
I think if you go back to the early bull period back, this is really kind of February, March period 2023 emerging out of FTX, you know, I would say at least the feeling to me, and I'm curious what you think.
感觉进入这轮早期牛市的时候，情绪上更兴奋一些。
Like, it feels a little bit more euphoric going into this early bullfear.
对我来说，感觉比2023年那会儿更兴奋一些。
It felt a little bit more euphoric to me than what we saw back in 2023.
而我一直做的就是，嗯，就是……
And what I've been doing is just kind of...
现在市场稍微回调了一下，我就开始看各种不同的指标，试着预测接下来会是什么样子。
Now that we've got this little reset, just kind of looking at a bunch of different metrics out there and trying to forecast what this could look like.
你提到2023年有很多震荡。
You mentioned, like, a lot of chop back in 2023.
所以我们经历了类似8月份那样的初期上涨。
So, you know, we kind of had the initial move similar to what we saw in August.
我们有过一波从低点上涨40%的行情。
We had, like, a 40% move off the lows.
这发生在2023年1月。
This this occurred in January 2023.
然后我们基本上守住了五十周均线，但当时宏观方面也有很多事情在发生。
And and then we kind of, like, held the fifty week moving average, but there was a lot of stuff going on in macro back then as well.
大家可能还记得硅谷银行倒闭的事。
People might recall the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
美联储当时在加息。
The Fed was hiking rates.
很多银行面临压力，而且当时实际上也有政策干预。
A lot of banks were coming under pressure, and we actually had policy intervention at that time as well.
当时设立了一个新项目来帮助银行度过那段时期。
A new program was set up to to help the banks through that period.
所以……
So...
而且那时候通胀也高于目标水平。
And inflation was above target at that time as well.
所以当时的宏观环境跟现在有些相似。
So the the kind of macro setup was somewhat similar to to what we have today.
今天也刚公布了高企的CPI数据，比预期高出3.7%。
We just had a high CPI print come in today as well, 3.7% above expected.
所以对我来说，回顾那段时期，看看山寨币和比特币的表现，并试图预测未来，我们可以说，在那段时间里，比特币能够守住五十周移动平均线，这和今天的情况有些类似，虽然宏观上有噪音，但比特币也处于一个刚刚重置了上个周期杠杆的位置。
So to me, like, kinda going back and looking at that period, looking at the performance of altcoins, looking at the performance of Bitcoin, and trying to forecast this through, what we can say is that, like, during that period, Bitcoin was able to hold its fifty week moving average, kind of a similar setup till we have today where you've got the macro noise out there, but you also have Bitcoin in a spot where we've just kind of reset the leverage from the past cycle.
我们已经重置了持有者基础。
We've reset the holder base.
从持有者的基础来看，我们现在处于一个更好的位置。
We're in a better sort of position in terms of just the foundation of holders.
所以虽然情况相似，但宏观不确定性也在周围盘旋。
So kind of have that same setup, but then also have the macro uncertainty swirling out there as well.
所以我的结论是，是的，我们处于早期阶段，我仍然坚信这一点。
So the takeaway for me is, like, yes, we're in the early bowl, and I I still firmly, you know, believe that's the case.
对此我仍然有90%的把握。
Still 90% on that.
但我觉得，那种狂热情绪可能需要稍微收敛一点，对接下来会发生什么要有个更理性的看法。
But I think the euphoria needs to sort of kind of come into, like, maybe a little bit more, you know, more tamed view of sort of what's gonna play out here.
而且我觉得，我们有可能进入一个震荡期。
And I think there's a chance that we could be in a period of chop here.
我在想，我们可能会看到比特币在8万到9.5万之间来回波动，就在那个区间里震荡，把人折腾得够呛，然后才会有下一步的动作。
I'm sort of thinking that we could be in a period where we will see Bitcoin move between 80 and 95 k or so and kinda bounce around there and kinda chop people up before we see the next the next move.
而且我觉得，宏观的不确定性以及我们现在所处的周期阶段，都支持这种看法。
And I think the the macro uncertainty and just kinda where we're at in the cycle would support that, you know, right now.
我觉得，那些在2023年经历过的人也会认同你刚才说的，就是……
And I think those who are here in 2023 would also validate what you just said, which is it...
2023年的牛市初期，其实感觉并不怎么像牛市。
The early bull market in 2023 didn't feel particularly bullish.
当时市场上总是有一些宏观层面的恐慌情绪。
There was always some macro FUD in the air out there.
我们在2023年3月的时候，还担心过银行挤兑的问题。
We were worried about these bank runs back in March 2023.
我们当时不知道那会怎么发展。
We didn't know where that would go.
CPI数据一直很高，没有放缓的迹象。
CPI was, you know, printing hot, no signs of slowing.
美联储在加息。
The Fed was raising rates.
背景还有加里·根斯勒，从那个角度带来的恐慌情绪，你就是在横盘交易，感觉挺无力的。
Backdrop you had kind of like Gary Gensler, FUD from that perspective, you were just trading sideways, it felt apathetic.
感觉不到牛市的氛围。
It didn't feel bullish.
就是这样。
That's the thing.
早期牛市通常不会让人当时就觉得特别牛，这次可能也会这样。
Is normal for an early bull market to not feel particularly bullish at the time and that's how this might come a pace as well.
我们来看看比特币的情况。
Let's check-in on Bitcoin.
在录制的时候，我们大概跌了2%，在8万2左右。
At the time of recording, we are down about 2%, about 82 k.
投资组合，当然，TDR投资组合在非比特币持仓上仍然涨了2.5倍，但比9月的高点还是跌了33%。
The portfolio, of course, the TDR portfolio is still up 2.5 x on non Bitcoin positions, but still down 33% from some of the September highs.
我想从你今天报告的开头说起，就是这张图表。
I wanna start where you start today's report, which is this chart right here.
把2023年的早期牛市和现在的情况做个对比。
Comparing the early bull in 2023 to the current setup.
这里有比特币的价格，就是这条粉色的线，然后还有一条蓝色的线，显示的是比特币的50日移动平均线。
And you have the Bitcoin price, and this is the pink line here, and then you have a blue line that shows the 50 moving average for Bitcoin.
然后有个小箭头，大概在……
Then there's a little arrow sometime in...
那是2023年初，还是2022年底？
Is that the beginning of twenty twenty three, end of twenty twenty two?
对。
Yep.
这表示我们今天在这里。
That says we are here today.
请给我们解释一下这张图。
Explain this chart for us.
所以……
So, you know, the...
我们……我们……
We're we're...
我们已经从低点回升了。
We've moved off the lows.
我们在上一个周期中，在11月底确立了低点。
So we established the low in the last cycle at the end of November.
我记得11月21日是周期低点，之后大约花了三个月时间，比特币才真正突破并站上50周均线，就是那条蓝线。
So November 21, I believe, was the cycle low, and it took about three months for Bitcoin to actually break out and and and move above the fifty week moving average, which is the blue line there.
在这个周期中，我们看到低点出现在6月30日，而且我们实际上以更快的速度突破了……
What we've seen in this cycle is we saw the the low on $6.30, and we've actually broken out in a little bit of a faster...
稍微快一点，大概快了一个月。
Little bit faster, about a a month faster.
我们已经突破了五十周均线，而且我们不得不突破它。
We've we've moved above that fifty week moving average, and we've kind of had to move above it.
我们经历了一点回调，你可以看到类似的情况在2023年初也发生过。
We've had a little bit of a correction, and you can kinda see a similar dynamic that was playing out back in early twenty twenty three.
所以对我来说，这就是这里的大局设定。
So to me, this is kind of the big picture setup here.
我觉得如果是牛市初期，你看那张图，可以看到有……
And I think if, you know, early bull, if you look at that chart, you can see there were...
比特币未来还有几年的扩张空间。
There was, you know, a couple years of expansion ahead of us for Bitcoin.
我相信今天我们看到的是同样的设定。
I believe that is, you know, the same sort of setup that we see today.
但正如你在那个红色箭头那里看到的，如果你看那条粉色的线，也就是比特币的价格，然后你稍微往前看，我们基本上在年底前都在震荡。
But as you can see where that kind of red arrow is there, if you look at the the pink line, the Bitcoin price there, and you just kinda look out, we kinda chopped for through the end of the year.
它稍微涨了一点。
It was up a little bit.
它稍微跌了一点。
It was down a little bit.
我们经历了两次17%的回调，每次大约持续两个月。
We had 217% corrections that lasted about two months each.
然后，真正让情况明朗的，我觉得比特币的转折点，是通胀在2023年年中开始再次回落，美联储在加息方面进入了相当长的暂停期。
And then, really, what what sort of cleared it and and I think the kind of clearing moment for for Bitcoin was inflation actually started to come down again into the middle of twenty twenty three, and the Fed went on sort of a long sort of pause in terms of rate hikes.
他们没有降息。
They weren't cutting rates.
他们直到2024年9月才降息。
They didn't cut until September 2024.
但我觉得，市场担忧的焦点，关于……
But I think the wall of worry in terms of the...
市场当时的位置是，好吧，通胀是……
Where the market was at was that, okay, inflation is are...
现在开始回落了。
Is starting to roll over now.
2023年夏天那段时间也有一些波动。
There was some volatility in that as well through the summer months in 2023.
但一旦那个转折点出现，就开启了财富创造阶段，这个阶段从...
But once we had that clearing event, that's what kicked off sort of the wealth creation phase, which came...
大概从2023年10月开始。
Started in, like, October 2023.
所以我们经历了...
So we had this...
我们逐渐脱离了低点，重新站上了五十周均线，然后经历了大约七个月的震荡和不确定期。
We sort of moved off the lows, reclaimed the fifty week moving average, and then had this period of uncertainty, this period of chop for about seven months.
宏观环境明朗了，然后我们就进入了财富创造阶段。
Macro sort of cleared, and then we sort of inflected into the wealth creation phase.
那时候，很多山寨币，可以说是上个周期最强的时刻，大概从2023年10月到2024年10月，一直到2024年第四季度，那可能是山寨币表现最强劲的时期。
That was when, like, a lot of altcoins, that was kind of the strongest moment, I would say, in the last cycle, probably from, like, October 23 through October 2024 into into, like, q four twenty four, probably the strongest period for altcoins.
我们会聊聊比特币的市占率，以及我关注的一些点，但那就是当时的背景。
We'll talk about Bitcoin dominance and kind of what I'm looking at there, but that was kind of the setup.
而现在感觉我们正处于类似的市场结构和宏观环境中。
And, you know, it just feels like we're kind of in a similar market structure and macro setup today.
确实。
Does.
所以这……
So it's
嗯，确实。
Well, does.
这些相似之处有点太巧了，所以我们想，你知道的……
I mean, parallels are kind of a little uncanny, so we wanna, you know...
但你大概想看看这个，而且你并不是说历史会完全重演，但让我们基于今天的报告主题来探讨一下，那就是历史会押韵。
But you probably wanna look at this and and you're not saying that history is going to repeat exactly, but let's go under the thesis for for today's report that it that it rhymes.
我们有很多相似之处。
We have a lot of similarities.
2023年美联储在加息。
We have the Fed raising in 2023.
他们加了1%，所以有四次不同的加息。
They raised by 1%, so there are four different raises.
CPI在2023年初是6.4%，后来降到3%，但到9月又回升到3.7%，所以通胀压力一直存在。
CPI started 2023 at 6.4%, it fell to 3%, and then by September it re spiked up to 3.7% so there's persistent inflation in the air.
美联储在加息，那会走向哪里呢？
The Fed was hiking, where was that going to go?
假设历史真的会重演，并且走势类似。
Let's say history does rhyme and it plays out similarly.
所以大概七个月的横盘震荡，一些大幅下跌抛售，然后反弹，但还是这种横向整理，就是你在图表上看到的这种锯齿状的效果。
So something like seven months of chop, something like some big dip sell offs followed by some recoveries but still this kind of like sideways chop, the the barding type of effect that you see on the charts.
那这段时间比特币的波动范围实际上是什么样的呢？
What does that actually look like in terms of the the range that Bitcoin is in in through this time?
因为你在2023年的这张图表上会注意到，一旦我们突破了五十周均线，我们就在整个早期牛市中一直保持在五十周均线之上，虽然有时会接近它，但总是反弹回来。
Because what you notice on this chart of course in 2023 is once we pass the fifty week moving average, we stayed above the fifty week moving average for the entirety of the early bull, kind of bounced close to it but bounced off it.
而且，即便从数字上看，五十周移动平均线还在往下走，对吧。
And that that is of course even while the fifty week moving average from a numerical perspective is kind of like going down Right.
因为过去五十周的价格比现在低。
Because the last fifty weeks have been lower priced than things are now.
所以，把这个趋势往前推，会是什么样子呢？
So anyway, extrapolate this forward, What would it look like?
价格会怎么走，这种情况能持续多久？
What would the prices look like, and how long could this last?
没人能预测市场，但如果我们大致沿着2023年那条路走，当时宏观不确定性笼罩，通胀高企。
So nobody can predict the markets, but, you know, if we kind of follow this similar path that we did in in '23 with the macro uncertainty in the air, inflation.
那时候还没有战争，所以这是接下来的一个新因素。
You know, we didn't have a war back then, so that is that is the next factor in
从通胀角度看。
terms of inflation.
但还有乌克兰。
Ukraine, though.
确实有乌克兰。
We did have Ukraine.
没错。
That's true.
对。
That's true.
确实有乌克兰，当时很多通胀就是它推动的。
We did have Ukraine, and that was what was driving a lot of inflation at the time.
所以当时的情况，我们有点像……
So what happened back then, you know, we kind of...
我们从低点回升了。
You know, we came off the lows.
最低点大概是一万六左右。
The low low was 16 k or so.
我们反弹到两万五，然后就在两万三到三万之间来回震荡，一直持续到十月份。
We bounced up to 25, and then we kind of just, like, bounced in this range between '23 and 30 k or so all the way until October.
所以我觉得，从比特币的动量来看，我们算是看到了一种均值回归。
So I think what I what I could see here is we've sort of seen a mean reversion, I would say, in terms of in terms of Bitcoin momentum.
所以自从我们移动……
So since, you know, we moved...
自从八月份那次波动之后，比特币的动量，如果你看RSI的话，它一直在超买区域交易。
Since we had that movement in August, Bitcoin, if you look at the momentum, if you look at the RSI, it's been trading kind of in an overbought zone.
我们现在算是从那个状态回归了。
We've now sort of mean reverted off that.
现在算是比较中性的状态。
We're kind of neutral right now.
所以我们可能还会看到更多的疲软。
So we could still see potentially more weakness.
今天我们也看到了一些，但看起来现在在8万左右有支撑。
We're seeing some of that today, but it looks like we're holding 80 k or so right now.
所以走着瞧吧。
So we'll see.
我想看到8万这个位置能守住支撑，然后有可能突破到9万以上。
I'm looking to see 80 k hold as support and and then potentially a move up past 90 k.
我觉得那会让大家再次兴奋起来。
And I think that's going to, you know, get people very excited again.
我觉得大家会关注10万这个关口，并且重新站上它，你可以想象那种浪潮……
I think people will be looking at a 100 k and reclaiming that, and you can imagine just sort of the wave of...
这种恐惧和贪婪的浪潮，如果涨到9万，就会反转成贪婪，我觉得未来几个月可能会看到这种情况。
These waves of fear and greed sort of reversing into into greed if we go up to 90 k, and I could I could see that happening in the coming months.
一旦到了那个位置，我觉得会是一个有趣的局面，如果宏观形势还没有明朗，美联储也还没有明确表态暂停加息或者下一步怎么走。
Once we get up there, I think that'll be the interesting setup where if this macro situation still hasn't cleared and and, you know, the the Fed, you know, is still hasn't, like, given the all clear in terms of pausing or what's gonna happen with rate hikes.
我可能会看到又一次……
I could see potentially, you know, then another...
然后回撤到差不多我们现在的位置，接近50周均线。
Then a drawdown back down to kinda where we are today, back closer to the fifty week moving average.
这有点像我们之前的那种模式……
This was kind of the pattern that we...
这在23年就发生过。
That played out in '23.
所以这有点像……
So that's kind of...
我们在回归均值。
You know, we're we're mean reverting.
我们看看这种疲软会不会持续。
We'll see, you know, if this continues, if this weakness continues.
到那时我们可能会看到恐慌达到顶峰。
And then, you know, that's the point where we'll probably see peak fear.
那可能就是在涨到9万的时候，然后我们再看宏观情况，以及市场是否……
That's probably then when you get the move up to 90, and then we'll see if what's going on in macro and if the market...
在那个价位上，忧虑之墙是否还能被继续攀爬，或者我们会不会遇到一些负面消息，然后价格回落并震荡。
If the wall of worry continues to be climbed at that level or if we end up with some negative news and and and we come down and shop around.
所以这就是我对当前形势的看法。
So that's kind of what I think is is playing out here.
比特币、以太坊、索拉纳这些主流币，它们的图表和市场结构在我看来现在非常健康。
Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, like the majors, those charts and the market structure to me looks very healthy right now.
我们看到罗宾汉链以及一些在夏季和九月份投机比较严重的领域，已经出现了很大的回调。
We have seen a a very, you know, large reset in terms of Robinhood Chain and some of these areas where there was quite a bit of speculation over the summer and into September.
我们之前聊过，这种资金是怎么转移到那些我称之为优质山寨币的板块的。
We talked about how that sort of moved into, like, what I'm calling quality altcoins.
九月份我们也看到了一波山寨币的行情。
We saw sort of an alt season in September as well.
所以那里也有一定的回调，但我觉得这也是健康的，就像是在为一些币种在较高价位上建立一个更坚实的持有者基础，虽然比低点高，但还是远低于之前的周期高点之类的。
And so, you know, there's been a little bit of a reset there, but I think that that's also healthy, and it's just kind of, like, establishing a stronger base of holders for some of these coins at elevated levels off the lows, but still, you know, well below prior cycle highs and that type of thing.
所以对我来说，这是一个相当健康的局面，但确实存在这些风险，比如通胀、战争，还有多场战争在进行。
So to me, this is, like, a pretty healthy setup, but there is these there is these risks out there with inflation, the war, multiple wars going on.
这是一个健康的局面，而且也是……
It's a healthy setup and it's also...
这里有一些回调带来的机会，你在报告的后面部分会谈到，我们稍后会讲到。
There's some reset opportunities here which which you talk about later in the report which we'll get to.
我想确保我们……
I I wanna make sure we...
顺便问一下，现在五十周移动平均线是多少？
What is the fifty week moving average, by the way, right now?
当然，它正在下降。
And it's dropping of course.
我记得是七万七千二。
It's I believe 77.2 k.
好的。
Okay.
你说得对，我们预计五十周移动平均线最终会在七万五左右触底。
And you're right, we expect the fifty week moving average to ultimately bottom around 75 k.
这大概会与上一个周期触底的时间相匹配，当时它几乎是在周期低点后的两百天触底的。
That would sort of match when it bottomed in the previous cycle, it bottomed almost two hundred days from the cycle low.
这让我们处于一个区间，你希望价格在八万以上，但你也写了这个。
And that sort of puts us in a band you're hoping above 80, but you also write this.
我们认为，在这个早期牛市阶段，五十周均线上方的等价区间是在七万八到九万二之间。
We believe the equivalent zone above the fifty week moving average for this early bull phase is between 78 k and 92 k.
这么说吧，如果投资者手里有闲置资金，打算在比特币上挂单买入，而五十周均线没有跌破七万五左右，那么你是不是想在七万五上方挂限价单？
Would it be fair to say if an investor has dry powder, say, for Bitcoin buys on the sidelines, and the fifty week average, fifty week moving average doesn't go below 75 k or so, that you wanna look for limit orders above 75 k.
再说一次，这次可能不会像上次那样发展，但如果你假设它会重演，那么你就想让那些买单挂在七万五上方。
Again, it it may not play out the same way it played out last time, but if you're assuming it does, then you're gonna want those buys to be above 75 k.
我觉得这么说有道理。
I think that's fair.
我觉得这算是个合理的策略。
I think that's, like, a fair strategy.
这不是我通常的做法，但我觉得跌破七万五看起来是个相当看跌的情况，那可能会打破我们现在这种看涨的市场结构。
Not the type of thing that I do, but I think going below 75 k seems seems like a pretty bearish case, and that would sort of break, I would think, a lot of this sort of bullish market structure that we have right now.
所以我觉得关注那个区间，并假设我们大概率会在那之上交易，是合理的。
So I think that's fair to sort of eye that zone and assume that we probably trade above that.
是的，我觉得这是应对当前这种局面的一个合理方式。
So, yeah, I think that's that's a fair way to way to play this this setup right now.
那我们来谈谈，到底哪里有机会跑赢比特币，因为我知道这才是你真正关心的。
Well, then let's talk about where the opportunities to outperform outperform Bitcoin actually are because I know that's what you're all about.
当然，你的投资组合里有一些比特币，但TDR投资组合和你所做的一切，核心目标就是跑赢比特币。
Of course, you have some Bitcoin in the portfolio, but the the whole aim of the TDR portfolio and what you do is to actually outperform Bitcoin.
要做到这一点，我们可能需要回顾一下比特币主导地位的故事，以及上个周期发生了什么，还有我们现在看到的，以及山寨币在这个周期这么早就表现出强劲势头，这确实让人意外。
For that, maybe we need to bring in the story of of Bitcoin dominance and what happened last cycle and and what we're seeing now and the surprising strength of altcoins this early in the cycle.
是的。
Yep.
给我们讲讲重点吧。
Give us the highlights here.
到目前为止，比特币主导地位和山寨币的强势表现，你觉得说明了什么？
What do you think Bitcoin dominance and the strength of altcoins is showing us so far?
这……
This is...
我花了……
I spent...
我花了很多时间思考这个问题。
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about this.
在上一个周期，你可以看到那张图表，第一个图表，比特币的主导地位基本上在整个周期内都处于牛市，我们过去也稍微讨论过这一点。
In the last cycle, you can see in that chart there, the first chart, Bitcoin dominance is basically in a bull market, like, the entire cycle, last cycle, and we've talked a little bit about this in in the past.
从某种程度上说，这证实了比特币极端主义者的观点，即比特币会吞并山寨币市场，你最好只持有比特币，因为它的份额会随着时间增长。
In some ways, this was confirming sort of the Bitcoin maxi view that Bitcoin was gonna, like, swallow the the altcoin space and that you're better off just holding Bitcoin because it's it's growing in in share over over over time.
在上一个周期确实如此。
And that was true in the last cycle.
我不确定这个周期还会这样。
I'm not sure that's gonna be true this cycle.
我觉得上一个周期有趣的地方在于，我们没有那么多优质的项目，优质的山寨币项目。
I think last cycle was sort of interesting from the perspective that we didn't have, like, as many quality projects, quality altcoin projects.
我们也没有那些更新的代币经济结构，这些结构能让价值真正回流到代币本身，而不是像上一个周期那样，那些治理代币只是纯粹地被稀释。
We didn't have these newer, you know, token economic structures in which value is actually accruing back to tokens instead of just, like, pure dilution for, like, these governance tokens that were swirling at the time in the last cycle.
所以我觉得比特币主导地位更强是有道理的。
So I think it kinda makes sense to me that Bitcoin dominance was stronger.
而且上一轮周期我们是从一个低得多的起点开始的。
We also started from a much lower point in the last cycle.
所以这就是我一直在想的一个问题，就是，这会不会……
And so that's one thing that I'm thinking a lot about is, like, does this...
比特币的主导地位是不是一定要领先？
Does Bitcoin dominance have to lead?
有没有可能我们看到山寨币相对于比特币重新定价？
And is it possible that we see altcoins actually rerate relative to to Bitcoin.
我还在形成自己的看法，但这是我一直在思考的一点。
Something I'm still forming my views on this, but that's something that I've been thinking a little bit about.
但回到这张图表，看看过去是怎么发展的，通常我们看到的是，比特币的主导地位会带领我们走出牛市初期阶段。
But just to get to this chart and kind of, like, how this played out in the past, typically, we see is Bitcoin dominance will lead us, you know, out of the early bull phase.
2023年就是这样。
And that's what played out in '23.
到目前为止，在这个牛市初期阶段我们还没看到这种情况，我觉得是因为市场上优质山寨币的表现更出色。
We haven't seen that so far in this early bull phase, and I think it's because of this outperformance from quality altcoins in the space.
Zcash、Hyperliquid、Near，这些代币的表现都相当不错……
You know, Zcash, Hyperliquid, near all of these tokens that have have done quite well over...
甚至追溯到夏季的那几个月。
Even going back to sort of, you know, over the summer months.
所以我觉得这就是目前的情况。
And so I think that's what's going on.
这轮牛市初期，山寨币季节来得更强劲。
We've had a stronger alt season to kick off this this early bull.
比特币很强。
Bitcoin is strong.
比特币稳住了阵脚。
Bitcoin is is holding its ground.
它保持在五十周均线上方。
It's above the fifty week moving average.
所以基本上，比特币的主导地位一直持平。
And so, basically, Bitcoin dominance has been flat.
你看图表的右边，我们其实还没看到什么动静。
You can see on the right side of the chart there, we really haven't seen a move.
现在大概就在60%左右。
We're right around 60% right now.
所以我觉得，因为山寨币之前那波涨势，我们可能接下来会……
So I sort of think because of the move we saw from alts, we're probably going to...
我们已经开始看到那种均值回归了。
We're we're already seeing sort of that mean reversion take place.
比特币的市占率看起来有点想往上抬一抬。
Bitcoin dominance looks like it it wants to inflect up a little bit here.
所以我感觉我们现在处于这个周期的一个阶段，比特币的市占率应该会在接下来的几个月里开始上升，然后这就会为山寨币可能再涨一波创造条件。
So I'm kinda thinking we're in a part of the cycle here where Bitcoin dominance should start to rise a little bit over the coming months, and then that creates the setup for potentially another move from from altcoins.
这就是我大概的想法。
And so that's kind of how I'm I'm thinking about this.
但我觉得这个周期最大的不确定因素是，那个图表是不是……
But I think the big x factor for this cycle is this idea of, like, is that chart...
比特币主导地位的图表在这个周期里会呈现那样的走势吗？
Is that Bitcoin dominance chart going to look like that for this cycle?
我其实有点怀疑情况会不会真那样。
And I I kind of question whether that's gonna be the case.
不过作为周期性投资者，我脑子里一直想着的是这些轮动效应，也就是资金在加密市场各个周期里的流转方式。
But the other thing as a cycle investor that I'm always thinking about is just these rotations, how capital rotates within the crypto markets during cycles.
回顾过去，我们通常看到的情况是比特币……
And what what we've typically seen in the past is Bitcoin...
资金会先流向比特币，然后山寨币会出现一波大幅上涨，接着比特币的市占率就会……
Capital flows to Bitcoin first, and then you see a big move from altcoins, then Bitcoin dominance sort...
在那段时间里开始趋于平稳，随后又会迎来另一波……
Starts to kinda level off during that period, and then you have another...
行情再次启动。
There's another move.
所以资金在市场里的流动，就像这样一波接一波地起伏。
So there's these sort of waves of the way that capital moves within the markets.
这个周期可能会有点不同。
This cycle could be a little different.
现在市面上有很多产品，让投资者除了比特币之外，还能接触到其他加密资产。
There's a lot of products out there that allow investors to get access to other crypto assets outside of just Bitcoin.
上个周期，比特币几乎是唯一一个有ETF的，后来才有了以太坊和其他币种。
You know, Bitcoin was kind of, like, one of the only ones last cycle with with the ETF, then we had Ethereum and and others.
所以这算是一个未知因素，但我觉得现在这个阶段，比特币的主导地位应该会开始上升一些。
So kind of the x factor, but I think right now, we're in a stage where Bitcoin dominance should start to move up a little bit.
好的。
Okay.
我觉得你在铺垫一个很吸引人的观点，就是虽然比特币……
I think you're setting up the tantalizing idea that while Bitcoin...
你这个周期看好比特币，但你认为上个周期比特币的主导地位在某种程度上是异常的，相比之下……
You're you're bullish Bitcoin this cycle, you think that previous cycle, Bitcoin dominance was sort of an aberration at some level versus
有可能。
Possibly.
这个周期。
This cycle.
比特币的主导地位上升了。
The Bitcoin dominance grew.
而且顺便说一下，在之前的周期里，比如2017年那轮，比特币的主导地位其实是下降的。
And and by the way, in previous cycles, I mean, you look at the 2017 cycle, for instance, Bitcoin dominance fell.
其他山寨币确实抓住了牛市行情，成为了加密市场中超越比特币的阿尔法收益来源。
And other altcoins really captured the the bull side and the alpha of the crypto market beyond Bitcoin.
而上一轮周期，我们看到比特币非常强势，山寨币资产则非常疲弱。
And last cycle, we saw a very strong Bitcoin and a very weak alt, you know, section of assets.
对。
This Yep.
这个周期，你说可能会反过来。
This cycle, you're saying it could be the reverse.
比特币当然是个好资产，但如果你想真正跑赢比特币，就得在这些高质量的山寨币上有所布局。
And definitely Bitcoin would be a good, you know, asset, but if you really want to outperform Bitcoin, you need to have a hand in these high quality alts.
你提到了大概五个理由，说明为什么你觉得可能会是这样。
And you you mentioned kind of like five reasons why you think that could be the case.
我们来看看。
And let's see.
你说比特币的主导地位在2026年触底，达到56%，而2022年是37%。
You said Bitcoin dominance bottomed at 56% in 2026 versus thirty seven percent 2022.
你说这个周期有更多高质量的项目，它们有产品市场契合度。
You're saying that this cycle has more quality projects with product market fit.
这个周期有更强的代币经济结构，价值实际上回流到代币持有者和投资者手中，你能想象吗，之前的周期我们可没这么做。
This cycle has stronger token economic structures with value actually accruing back to token holders, investors, imagine that, we didn't do that in previous cycles.
然后，随着市场情绪从熊市低点转变，许多山寨币在八月和九月从深度超卖的水平重新定价。
And then you have many alts re rated back in September and August from deeply oversold levels as the sentiment shifted out of bear market lows.
好的。
Okay.
那么，这就是为什么山寨币可能表现更好，而像你这样的加密货币投资者和TDR投资组合会倾向于高质量山寨币的原因吗？
So is that the case for why altcoins might over perform in a crypto investor like you and the TDR portfolio would want to be tilted, the high quality altcoins.
这开始成为你的基本判断了吗？
Is that starting to become your base case here?
是的。
It is.
确实开始成为基本判断了。
It is kinda starting to become the base case.
我不是说比特币这轮周期不会表现好。
I'm not saying that Bitcoin's not gonna have a good cycle.
我只是想说……
I'm just kind of saying...
而且我觉得有时候我的观点会被误解，尤其是关于以太坊、Solana，还有ETH和SOL这些。
And and I I think sometimes my view gets misinterpreted here, especially related to, like, Ethereum or Solana, Ethan Soul as well.
我不是说这些不会表现好。
And I'm not saying, like, these things aren't going to do well.
更多的是那些可能还没被充分发现的其他项目。
It's more that just these other projects that are maybe less discovered.
我觉得这不是一个广为人知的事情。
I don't think this is a known thing.
我……
What I...
你刚才读到的那些项目，有产品市场契合度，有那样的收入，有他们产生的基本面，还有这些新的代币经济结构，我觉得这些在加密货币圈子里并不为人所知。
What you just read through there in terms of projects with product market fit, that amount of revenues, the fundamentals they're producing, these new token economic structures, I don't think this is this is known in in, you know, crypto native circles.
我觉得这在更广泛的范围内也不为人所知。
I don't think this is known more broadly.
上周我们看到了一个有趣的事情，Citrini 发布了。
We saw kind of an interesting thing last week where Citrini came out.
Citrini 是一个相当大的新闻通讯，覆盖了相当多的散户和机构受众。
Citrini is a pretty large newsletter that reaches, like, a pretty big retail and institutional audience.
我觉得他们以前从来没有做过任何加密货币相关的内容，但他们发布了一个投资组合。
I don't think they've ever done any crypto stuff in the past, but they put out, you know, a portfolio.
而且我不……
And I don't...
我得去查一下。
I'd have to pull that up.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不太确定。
I'm not sure.
那个投资组合里甚至包含比特币吗？
Is Bitcoin even in that portfolio?
哦，找到了。
Oh, here it is.
投资组合就在我这儿。
I've got the portfolio right here.
你觉得
What do
这个投资组合怎么样？
you think of this portfolio?
这让我觉得特别有意思。
This is fascinating to me.
因为现在你……
Because now you're...
所以这就像是第一次有人向一个不了解这些的观众介绍这些东西，他们不知道衍生品，也不知道莱特币，更不知道某些……
So this is like the first layer of somebody introducing this now to an an audience that didn't know about didn't know about derived, didn't know about lighter, didn't know about some
……有点像那种传统投资者，早早抓住了很多趋势，尤其是在AI交易这个趋势上。
sort of being sort of like a trad investor who has been early to a lot of the trends, particularly in the AI, you know, trade trend.
现在如果大家去读那份报告，就会发现他们其实是在把加密货币当作一种……
And now if you if folks read the report, they were sort of pitching crypto as sort of a...
几乎像是AI货币，一种……
Almost like AI money, you know, a way of...
AI系统会真正接触金融的方式，有点像新金融。
That AI systems would actually approach finance, kinda like new finance.
而这些就是他们买入的资产。
And these are the assets that they purchased.
你说得对。
And you're right.
比特币不在名单上。
Bitcoin is not on the list.
但其中很多也是TDR投资组合的一部分，同时也是产生收入的项目，对吧？
But a lot of these are part of the TDR portfolio as well and also revenue producing projects, aren't they?
没错。
Exactly.
所以这是这个周期的新情况，我有点……
So this is this is new in this cycle, and it's something that I'm kind of...
我还在思考这个问题。
I'm trying to just sort of think about.
我们发布了价格目标，随着周期的发展，我们可能会重新审视并更新这些目标。
You know, we we put our price targets out, and this is something we'll probably be, you know, revisiting those and updating those as the cycle plays out.
但目前我的看法是，这些代币，我们投资组合里也有一些，我认为市场对它们的理解还不够充分。
But for now, you know, my view is that, like, these these tokens, and we have some of them in our portfolio, I don't think they're fully understood by the broader market.
而且这发生在这样一个时期，你会遇到……
And this is happening during a period where you're gonna have...
这挺有意思的，因为会有很多AI公司的IPO。
It's kind of an interesting setup because you're gonna have all this AI IPOs.
它们其实正处于解禁期。
They're actually in their, like, sort of unlock period.
这跟……很像
This is this is similar to
市场上的发行量。
issuance out there.
发行量很大。
A lot of issuance.
供应量。
Supply.
所以当你考虑资金流向，比如传统金融和AI市场的回购与发行，你会发现那里的资金流向对投资者不利，而在某些加密资产中，资金流向反而对你有利。
So when you think of capital flows, buybacks versus issuance in in TradFi and and in the AI markets, you have kind of a a capital flow there that's, like, working against you as an investor, whereas maybe in some of these crypto assets, have capital flow that's actually working in your favor.
相对于回购来说，发行量要少一些。
There's less issuance relative to to buybacks.
所以这个局面挺有意思的。
So kind of interesting setup.
我觉得投资者很容易就能理解这一点，明白这是怎么回事。
And I think this is something that investors will be able to wrap their head around this pretty easily to see, you know, how this works.
然后我们聊了很多关于快速DeFi的内容，以及为什么我们喜欢快速DeFi。
And then we've talked a lot about fast DeFi and why we like fast DeFi.
当你开始把这一点和代币经济结构结合起来，就能明白为什么有人会在这里建立投资论点。
When you start to combine that with the token economic structure, you can see you can see why somebody could build an investment thesis there.
所以基本情况下，山寨币可能会成为赢家，大幅跑赢，尤其是相比上一个周期，跑赢比特币。
So base case emerging as alt could be a winner, overperform in a big way, you know, particularly versus last cycle, overperform versus Bitcoin.
但问题依然存在，好吧。
But the question still remains, okay.
比如，哪些代币？
Like, which tokens?
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我们说的是哪些山寨币？
Which alts are we talking about?
上个周期，Solana生态当然是大赢家，我知道你当时很早就逆向投资了，肯定赚了不少。
There was a big win last cycle, of course, in the Solana ecosystem, and I know you were early in contrarian to that and certainly benefited.
不只是Solana。
It wasn't just Solana.
整个Solana生态都涨了，当然还有Bonk Chain。
It was the entire Solana ecosystem, so there was the Bonk Chain, of course.
对。
Yep.
你觉得有没有迹象表明类似的情况正在发生？
Do you see hints that there could be something similar playing out?
也许现在说它是这个周期的潜在Solana还为时过早，但我看这部分内容时确实有这种感觉。
Maybe it's too early to call it the potential Solana of this cycle, but that's a bit of the vibe I got when I was going through this section.
具体是什么，你看到了哪些相似之处？
What is it, and what are the parallels that you see here?
所以我也一直在想这个问题，试图形成一个看法，看是否……
So just been thinking a little bit more about about this as well and and trying to form a view on whether...
Robinhood Chain 上到底发生了什么。
What's going on in Robinhood Chain.
所以 Robinhood REV 的那张图……
So, you know, that chart of Robinhood REV is...
我们在加密货币里见过很多这样的图表，就是突然飙升，然后迅速回落，从贪婪变成恐惧，变化非常快。
You know, we've seen a lot of charts like this in crypto that that just spike up, and then they they roll over and, you know, you go from, you know, greed to to fear very quickly.
而且在加密货币里，我们也见过很多这样的情况，之后就再也回不来了。
And we've seen a lot of these in crypto where they don't come back.
就像，那就是终点。
Like, that that that was it.
我能说一个2023年发生的例子吗，就是 Blur 和 Blast 生态系统，当时一周内就传开了。
Can I just say there's one that played out in 2023 that was news on the week, which is the blur and blast ecosystems?
那是一个投机的小圈子。
This is a pocket of speculation.
Blur、blast，这些链、这些代币，它们的走势几乎和Robinhood Chain的图表一样，现在跌了差不多99%，类似这样。
Blur, blast, these these chains, these tokens went up almost like the the Robinhood Chain chart, and now they're down like 99%, something like this.
这两个项目现在都关停了。
Both projects now shutting down.
再也没有回来过。
Never came back.
不持久。
Not durable.
确实没回来。
Never came Right.
所以这就是这里的大问题。
So that's the big question here.
我觉得这……
And I think this is...
我的看法是，这次不一样。
My my view here is that this is different.
我不是说Robinhood Chain这个周期会变成Solana，但我觉得理解这些投机浪潮，而不是直接认定它就是个快速泡沫然后结束了，这样更有意义。
I'm not saying that Robinhood Chain is is going to be Solana this cycle, but I but I think just understanding these waves of speculation and just kind of, like, instead of, like, I think it makes sense rather than to assume something is just a quick bubble and it's it's over.
我觉得保持好奇心，去深入研究一下总是更好的。
I think it's always better to be curious and and kind of, like, look into that.
稍微深入一点去了解。
Look into it a little bit deeper.
所以Robinhood Chain呢……
And so, you know, Robinhood Chain is...
基本面已经完全恶化了。
You know, the fundamentals have completely deteriorated.
市场情绪也大幅下滑。
The sentiment is is way down.
那种社交交易的热潮，从七月到九月火过一阵，现在已经完全熄火了。
The sort of social trading space that took off back in July through September has completely rolled over.
我觉得pawn代币大概跌了70%左右。
I think pawns is down 70% or so.
现在RSI显示它已经超卖了。
It's oversold on the RSI right now.
所以罗宾汉链上已经完成了一次彻底的清洗和重置。
So kind of a full cleansing, a full reset has now played out on on Robinhood Chain.
我就是在看这个局面，觉得基础设施都齐了。
And I'm kinda just looking at the the setup there, and I'm saying, well, you know, it's got all the infrastructure.
在我看来，罗宾汉的分发已经万事俱备，就等一个完美的时机了。
Everything's in place here for, like, the perfect setup in my opinion in terms of the Robinhood distribution.
罗宾汉钱包，还有那个……
The the Robinhood wallet, the...
我也建议大家去用一下这些产品。
You know, I recommend people use some of these products as well.
把罗宾汉券商账户和罗宾汉钱包结合起来用，在券商里买资产，转到钱包里，再通过钱包在链上交易，这个体验挺有意思的。
It's pretty interesting onboard when you can combine your Robinhood brokerage with Robinhood wallet and easily, you know, use the wallet with, you know, buy assets on the brokerage, send them to your wallet, trade on chain through the wallet.
这确实很独特。
That's very unique.
这种功能在加密货币领域其他地方根本不存在。
Like, that doesn't exist anywhere else in crypto.
所以那个……
So that...
那个就是这样的。
That's there.
你还有那种，怎么说呢，可能是投机领域的中心，就是ponds，那算是代币发射台，很多交易活动和经济活动都从那里产生。
You have, like, the sort of, like, center of sort of the, you know, maybe speculative area, which is ponds, and that's kind of the token launch pad where a lot of the trading activity comes from, a lot of the economics that that are playing out.
还有Uniswap，它占了95%的市场份额，真实世界资产也在上面交易。
You have Uniswap, which is a 95% market share, real world assets trading on there.
而且已经有Morpho这样的借贷市场了。
You have a lend borrow market already with Morpho.
稳定币供应也很充足，已经超过十亿美元了。
You have a strong stablecoin supply already over a billion dollars of stablecoins.
有意思的是，Athena的USDE占了其中大约37%。
Interestingly, Athena, USDE is about 37% of that supply.
而且我们知道，你有Lighter，还有永续合约交易已经集成在那个钱包里了。
And as we know, you have lighter, and you have perps trading that's integrated on that wallet.
Lighter大概占了通过Robinhood钱包进行的永续合约交易的60%。
Lighter's doing about 60% of the perps trading through through Robinhood wallet.
所以我觉得，这真的是一个非常非常强大的基础设施，再加上Robinhood的渠道和分销能力。
So you have kind of, like, a really, really strong, like, infrastructure, I would say, combined with distribution and what Robinhood's doing.
我觉得昨天好像有什么消息泄露出来了。
I think there was something leaked yesterday.
可能会有某种基金要推出，比如开发者资助生态系统的拨款之类的，可能会在那里出现。
There might be some sort of fund coming out, like a sort of developer funding ecosystem grant, something like that that could be coming in there.
那只是个传言，我觉得，不过现在好像已经确认了。
It was just a a rumor, I think, and I think it's been confirmed.
但我能预见类似的事情会发生。
But I could see something like that happening.
也许是个空...
Maybe it's air...
也许是个空投，或者某种财富效应。
Maybe it's an airdrop or sort of a wealth effect.
我们真的还没见过这些在这么早的阶段就出现，但当你看到市场情绪、其他所有因素以及图表上的基本面时，这是一个有趣的局面。
We really haven't seen these things come in this early bowl just yet, but it's an interesting setup when you look at the sentiment and you look at everything else and you look at the fundamentals in the charts.
我觉得可以说这很可能会回来，我们拭目以待。
I think you can make the case that this is probably gonna come back, and and we'll see.
这看起来像上个周期的Solana吗？
Does that look like Solana last cycle?
那实际上是什么样子的？
What does that actually look like?
然后你怎么获得对这个生态系统的敞口？
And then, you know, how do you get exposure to this?
我刚列举了几种方式，你可以通过这些获得对这个生态系统的一些敞口。
I just listed off a few ways that, you know, you could get some some exposure to this ecosystem.
是的，这就是我的一些看法。
But, yeah, that's kind of the the views here.
所以比特币能守住它目前交易的这些价位。
So, you know, a Bitcoin can hold these levels that it's trading in.
它确实在八万到九万五的区间内交易。
It does trade in the eighty to ninety five k range.
我预计它会继续……
I expect this to just kinda keep...
没有人停止在Robinhood链上开发。
You know, nobody stopped building on Robinhood Chain.
人们仍然在那里开发，只是因为投机性的骗局已经离开了。
People are still building there just because the speculative fraud has left.
有很多人在开发，为下一波浪潮做准备。
There's a lot of people building, getting ready for the next wave.
所以我认为这是一个相当有趣的局面。
So I think it's a pretty interesting interesting setup.
所以，听起来，Mike，你刚才描述的几乎就像一个Robinhood敞口资产篮子，这当然非常有趣。
So it it sounds like, Mike, what you just laid out is almost like a a Robinhood exposure basket of assets, which is pretty interesting, of course.
我觉得你做的这种模式匹配，就是我们在市场早期牛市阶段看到的那些投机性上涨，在经历了一段沉寂之后，比如六七个月的调整期，那些就变成了……
And I think the pattern match you're doing is the early speculation run ups that we saw in previous early bull phases of the market after a lull, after a you know maybe six seven month it's over period of time, those became...
那些就是后来全面牛市到来时大行情的前兆。
Those were hints as to the big movers when the, you know, full on bull market comes later after that.
所以你在Solana生态里看到的就是这种情况，Bonk也有类似的表现。
And so that's what you're seeing in the Solana ecosystem for instance, and Bonk did something similar.
你并不是说Bonk和Pons一样，但你能在Robinhood生态和Solana之间看到一些相似的模式。
You're not saying Bonk is the same as Pons, but you can see some of the matching patterns here in the Robinhood ecosystem versus Solana.
我们简单聊聊宏观方面，重点可能应该放在十年期国债收益率和刚公布的通胀数据上。
Let's touch on macro briefly, and and maybe the focus should be really the ten year and also inflation numbers that just came out.
今天早上我们开始录制的时候，这个数据刚出来，九月份的CPI是3.7%。
So I think breaking this morning as we started recording this, September CPI printed 3.7%.
预期是3.6%，比八月份的3.4%有所上升。
So 3.6% was expected, that's up from 3.4% in August.
核心CPI仍然是2.6%。
Core was still 2.6%.
当然，核心通胀率是剔除能源这类波动大的项目的。
Of core of course, core takes out things like energy, which is the big mover.
能源价格确实把标准CPI数据推得比人们预期的要高。
Energy is really driving up the the, you the standard CPI print numbers higher than people expected.
现在有一些抛售正在发生。
There's some sell off happening.
十年期国债收益率这周本来一直在下降，现在又回升到5.3%以上了。
Yields on the ten year, they had been actually falling this week, and now they're back up above your 5.3%.
我记得在录制的时候，十年期国债收益率是5.31%。
I think I saw a 5.31% yields on the ten year at the time of recording.
这些对你来说意味着什么？
What does this all mean to you?
这对你提出的加密货币观点有关系吗？
Is this relevant to you, the crypto case that you're making?
这有点意料之中。
It's kind of expected.
所以我觉得之前有一段时间油价回落了，通胀也因此降了下来。
So I think we had a little period there where oil prices had come off and inflation came down as a result of that.
而在过去几个月里，我们看到油价又回升了，我记得是到了一百零……
And over the last few months, we did see oil go back up to, I think, one o...
我记得它触及了一百零五，之后一直在九十多美元左右徘徊。
I think it touched one zero five, and now it's been trading kind of above 90 or so, you know, since then.
所以这3.7%的涨幅大部分来自能源，也就是能源成本上升。
And so most of that 3.7% is coming from energy, rising energy costs.
你刚才提到核心通胀也涨了2.6%。
You mentioned there that core inflation rose as well 2.6%.
所以我觉得这不是一个好看的数据。
So not a good not a a good print, I would say.
这差不多是我预料之中的。
Kind of what I what I was anticipating might happen.
对我来说，我们可以一直分析宏观经济，想分析多久就分析多久。
And to me, like, we can analyze macro, you know, as long as we want.
我们可以一直说下去，说个没完，你会发现很多让自己紧张的理由，如果一直盯着宏观上的各种风险，你可能会把自己吓到，而我想避免这种情况。
We can just go on and on and on, and you'll you'll find ways to get yourself really nervous, and you'll probably spook yourself if you just keep staring at all of the risks in macro, and I'm trying to avoid that.
我想承认这些风险的存在。
I'm trying to acknowledge these risks.
我想承认这件事还在持续。
I'm trying to acknowledge that, you know, this this is this is ongoing.
这场战争充满不确定性。
This war is uncertain.
我觉得大多数……
I think most...
我觉得如果通胀问题解决了，那可能就是市场的转折点，但我不确定什么时候会来。
I think if this inflation issue cleared, that's that's probably the clearing event for markets, and I don't know when that's going to come.
而且我觉得这是无法预测的。
And I don't think you can predict it.
只是……
It's just...
这确实不确定。
It's uncertain.
我不想让自己陷入试图预测那些我无法预测的事情的困境。
I don't want to get myself caught up trying to predict things that I that I can't predict.
所以我试着做的是，问自己一个问题，更像是‘这就是世界的现状’，这样我可以说这其实更确定，然后保持一个更长期的视角，承认这些风险存在，而且可能会有波动。
So what I'm trying to do is say, what what what is the question I can ask myself that's more like this is this is just the state of the world that I can say this is actually more certain and just kind of have a longer term view acknowledging that these risks are out there and that there's probably gonna be volatility.
但我一直让自己锚定的是，我们正处于财政主导的时期，而且没有出路。
But I think the thing that I just keep anchoring myself to is is just that we're in this period of fiscal dominance and that there's just no way out of it.
比如，如果你看看正在发生的事情，很明显我们必须做我们正在做的事情，而且我们正在做。
Like, if you just look at what's playing out, it's very clear that we have to do what we're doing, and we're doing it.
所以债务占GDP的比例是123%。
So, you know, debt to GDP is at a 123%.
唯一的出路就是通过增长来摆脱它。
The only way out of that is to grow your way out of it.
我们之前谈过这个。
We've talked about this.
这意味着你实际上必须让通胀率高于利率。
That that means you actually have to run inflation, you know, above above interest rates.
你需要负的实际收益率。
You need negative real yields.
你说增长，是指名义增长吧。
When you say grow, you mean grow nominal.
让货币增长到
Grow the money to
名义上的。
the nominal.
名义上。
Nominally.
没错。
Exactly.
如果你这样做，实际上可以让债务占GDP的比例降下来。
And that if you if you do that, you can actually get your you know, debt to GDP to to come down.
其实你并不是在真正地减少债务。
You're not actually, like, reducing your debt.
你只是让你的经济增长速度超过债务增长速度，就是这样……
You're just you're just basically growing faster than the debt, and that's...
我们在二战后见过这种操作。
We've seen this playbook after World War two.
那具体是怎么操作的呢？
What is the playbook to do that?
嗯，就是刺激经济。
Well, you stimulate the economy.
你财政支出要达到六……
You you have your, you know, fiscal spend, you know, six per...
你的财政支出赤字要达到6%。
You're running 6% deficits on your fiscal spend.
你发动一场战争，对吧，这会引发各种支出，同时也能刺激经济。
You start a war, right, that kicks off all kinds of spending and and also stimulates the economy.
然后你会有一个再工业化时期，伴随着人工智能和所有的资本支出。
And then you have a reindustrialization period with with AI and all the CapEx spending.
所以我们现在正处于……
So we are in...
这就是……
That's what...
这就是我们现在的世界，我认为在这段时期我们应该预期更高的通胀。
That's just the world that we're in, and we should expect, I think, higher inflation during this period.
这只是最终如何在债券市场、股票市场中体现的问题。
It's just a matter of how that ultimately kinda manifests, you know, in the bond market, in the stock market.
但对我来说，那些在起作用的激励措施，以及政策制定者通过所有行动向我们展示的东西，都非常明确。
But to me, the the the sort of incentives that are in play and what the policymakers are showing us with all of the actions is, like, very clear.
所以这真的是……
And so it's really...
对我来说，就像是，好吧。
For me, it's kind of like, okay.
我了解这个局面。
I know the setup.
我知道政策制定者在做什么。
I know what the policymakers are doing.
我知道最终的答案是什么。
I know what the answer ultimately is.
我不知道通往那里的路径是什么，但我觉得我需要锚定在那个理解上，是的，外面有黑天鹅。
I don't know what the path is going there, but I think I need to just sort of anchor to to to that understanding that, yes, there are black swans out there.
有些事情可能会发生，但我无法预测它们。
There are things that can happen, but I can't predict them.
我宁愿就在市场里，承认这一点，并试着看穿它。
And I'd rather sort of just be in the market, acknowledge it, and and try to look through it.
关于那个贬值设定，我们能预测的事情，我们知道正在发生，雷·达里奥发表了一篇很棒的文章，他有点像这个领域的教父，他说，是的。
On that debasement setup, the things that, you know, we can predict, we know are happening, there was a fantastic article put out by Ray Dalio who's kind of like the the godfather of this where he goes Yep.
通过债券数字，他就说，看。
Through kind of the bond numbers, and he's just like, look.
有太多债务要上市出售，供应量很大。
There's so much debt that is going up for sale in terms of supply.
2023年企业债务到期，美国政府有更多政府债务、债券发行，还有股票发行，市场上的净新增供应量太大，需求根本不够覆盖。
Corporate debt coming in 2023, rollover debt from the US government, I mean, there's more, you know, government debt, bonds issuance, and, you know, kind of equity issuance that there's not going to be enough demand to cover all this net new supply that's going in the market.
这种情况我们在加密货币里见过很多次了，当太多代币追逐不够的需求时，市场就开始疲软。
And that's something we've seen play out in crypto so many times that the market starts to get exhausted when you have too many tokens chasing not enough demand.
你在达利欧的框架里也能看到这一点，这真的是货币贬值的情形。
And you can kinda see that in the DALEO setup here and it's really debasement setup.
对。
Yep.
我在想我们到底在加密货币里买什么，我觉得某种程度上可能是三大宏观趋势，或者说三种趋势。
When I was thinking of, like, what we're actually buying in crypto, I sort of feel like it's it's sort of maybe three macro trends at some level or three kind of trends.
一个是货币贬值，很明显。
One is debasement quite clearly.
对。
Yep.
另一个我可能会称之为‘堕落式贬值’。
The other is what I might call like degen debasement.
这有点像社交交易那种现象，对吧。
It's kind of the social trading type phenomenon Right.
就是说，资产本身不重要了。
Which is just like, assets don't matter.
我就直接去买模因币。
I'm just going to buy meme coins.
第三个则是金融未来那种玩法。
And the third is like a future of finance type play.
这就是你在当前市场里接触到的。
That's kind of what you're getting exposed to in this market.
我觉得你说得对。
I think that's I think that's right.
我有点担心的是，按照我们刚才说的那种情况，就是经济必须以高名义利率运行，同时还得有通胀，这种环境从某个角度看挺让人担忧的，而且还有AI这个因素。
I think, you know, what what concerns me a little bit here is like through this, what what we just laid out there, this kind of situation where you have to run the economy at a high nominal rate and and and have inflation in that environment, it's a concerning setup from the perspective, like, you also have AI.
我觉得AI对劳动力市场的影响，说实话，还没真正显现出来。
We haven't seen AI really impact the labor market, I would say, just just yet.
所以随着未来几年这种情况的发展，我更担心的是，工资可能跟不上。
And so as this plays out over the next few years, what becomes more concerning to me is, like, the wages may not.
所以我认为，要摆脱政策制定者的激励导向，办法就是持有资产。
So I I think the way to escape what the incentives of the the policymakers are going to be is to own assets.
这就是整个论点的核心。
And that's kind of the whole thesis here.
我不太确定……
I don't...
而且我觉得资产会成为那个泄压阀。
And I think assets are gonna be the escape valve.
持有正确的资产，就是他们解决这个问题时的泄压阀。
That being in the right assets is gonna be the escape valve for them solving this problem.
挑战在于工资这一边。
The challenge is on the wage side.
我不确定工资会不会像资产价格那样涨得那么快。
I'm not sure if wages are gonna grow as fast as asset prices.
然后在失业率可能上升的时期，我们看看最终会怎么发展。
And then at at a period when you have potentially unemployment rising, we'll see how this ultimately shakes out.
但这可能会造成一个非常棘手的政治环境。
But that could create a really, you know, tricky political environment.
可能……
Probably...
这可能是几年后的事，但大概会进入下一个总统选举周期，那时候这些压力真的会开始显现出来。
This is probably a couple years out, but it's probably going into, like, the next presidential election cycle where you have some of these pressures, you know, really starting to to push up.
所以这只是一个题外话，
So just a, you know, kind of a tangent thought
对。
there.
完全同意。
Completely.
我觉得政治因素就像那个X因素，也就是黑天鹅。
I think I think political is kind of the x factor, the the black swan.
我……
I mean, I...
最近吉姆·比安科就提到过，自2020年以来，通胀导致美元购买力下降了32%，而工资只涨了大约26%，差不多这样。
It was Jim Bianco just made the point recently that since 2020, inflation, like, dollar value has gone up 32% and wages have gone up, like, 26%, something like that.
所以从工资角度来看，人们已经处于亏损状态了。
So people are already underwater from a wage perspective.
这些情况现在就已经在产生政治影响了，就在我们说话的当下。
That is all having political implications even now as we speak.
我们来聊聊现在的市场走势吧。
Let's talk about the move right now.
特别是，我想让你谈谈这是不是一次早期的牛市回调。
In particular, maybe I want you to talk about this is an early bull reset.
如果我们正处于山寨币的冷却期，而你今天又提出了一个观点，并且这正逐渐成为你的基本判断，你认为山寨币可能会跑赢大盘，那么在比特币之外的山寨币领域里，确实有一些绝佳的重新布局机会。
If we're in an altcoin cooldown and yet you made the case today, which is becoming your base case, you think alts might overperform, then there are some fantastic reset opportunities outside of Bitcoin out on the spectrum here in altcoin land.
你能谈谈……
Can you talk about...
我知道你有一份清单，列出了那些可能的机会，当然在TDR投资组合里，还有今天的报告里，大家可以去解锁看看，但也许你可以先提几个现在比较吸引你眼球的。
I know you have a list of what those might be in of course the TDR portfolio and also in today's report that folks can go unlock, but maybe name a couple of them that kind of, you know, catch your eye right now.
而且我知道你的立场是长期持有这些资产，但对于那些手里还有现金、想找山寨币回调机会的人来说，你会推荐哪些类型的资产，说“嘿，去看看这个”？
And I know your position is more holding these assets, but for somebody who still has some cash to deploy and is looking for alt reset opportunities, what types of assets, you know, would you say, hey, go take a look at this?
我们投资组合里有一些。
We have some of them in the portfolio.
在我发布的报告里，我们……
In the report that I put out, we've...
我其实一直在审视我们持有的所有主题和板块，以及它们现在所处的位置。
I've been actually looking at all of the sort of themes and sectors that we're holding and kind of where everything sits right now.
我想说……
And I'd say the...
在我们的投资组合里，那些还没有从低点大幅重新定价的，就是我们的迷因币篮子。
In our portfolio, the stuff that hasn't, like, repriced as much off the lows is kind of our meme coin basket.
就是……
It's...
它……
It...
我们现在在模因币篮子上的收益，我觉得已经超过80%了。
We're we're we're up, I think, over 80% or so on our meme coin basket right now.
但我觉得里面还是有一些机会的。
But I would say there's there's some opportunities in there.
那些币的RSI已经接近超卖水平了。
Those are, like, approaching oversold levels on the RSI.
所以这是一个方面。
So that's one that's one thing.
我觉得Lighter在过去几周里已经大幅重新定价了。
I think lighter has repriced significantly here over the last last few weeks.
我想它涨到了大约5.50美元。
I think it got up to about $5.50.
我记得上次看的时候，价格大概在3.30美元左右。
I think the last time I looked, it was trading around $3.30 or so.
所以这个龙头股经历了一次比较大的回调。
So a significant sort of reset on the leader.
而且Lighter也在你之前提到的那个Robinhood组合里。
And lighter is in sort of that Robinhood basket that you named earlier too.
对，
As
没错。
well.
所以……
So...
而且RSI也接近超卖水平了。
And also approaching oversold levels on the RSI.
通常来说，这对我来说是一个信号，尤其是在牛市中，当动量像这样减弱时，可能会是一个有趣的机会。
Usually, like, that's kind of tends to be an indicator for me on just moment, especially in a bull market when momentum deteriorates like that can be an interesting interesting opportunity.
我们看到了稳定币。
You know, we've seen stablecoins.
Circle 没什么大动作。
Circle hasn't done much.
我觉得价格就在我们的入场价附近，Athena。
You know, it's right around, I think, our our entry price Athena.
我们对 Athena 这个周期非常看好。
We have a, you know, very bullish on on Athena for this cycle.
所有这些……
All of these...
基本上，我们投资组合里的所有东西都经历了一定程度的回调。
Basically, everything in our portfolio has undergone somewhat of a of a reset.
那些可能没那么超卖的东西，比如 Derive 期权，因为上周花旗的报告。
The stuff that's maybe not as oversold would be, like, the derive options because of the Citi Report that went out last week.
那之后表现不错。
It did well after that.
花旗把他们列为最大持仓。
Citi named them as the top holding.
Derive作为10%的持仓。
Derived as a 10% holding.
10%的持仓。
10% holding.
所以我大致过了一遍投资组合。
So, you know, I kinda went through the portfolio.
我们比九月份的高点下跌了大约33%。
We're down about 33% off the highs from September.
但我们仍然上涨了超过106%，所以对表现还是满意的，而且我们的非比特币仓位表现依然更好。
We are still up over a 106%, so still happy with kind of the performance, and our non Bitcoin positions are still outperforming.
我觉得我们之前聊了很多关于在熊市期间进行配置的事情，知道我们不可能完美地抄底，事实也确实如此。
And I think, you know, we've talked a lot about just, you know, allocating during the bear market, knowing that we were not gonna time the bottom perfectly, and we didn't.
有些仓位一度跌了20%、30%，处于水下。
You know, there were certain certain positions that we fell 20, 30% underwater at times.
但我觉得回头看，那些入场点看起来还是挺好的，因为你能先吃到一波涨幅，然后即使有回调，你仍然处于一个不错的位置。
But I think those entries looking back still look pretty good because you can get that move and then have a correction and still be in a in a good spot.
我觉得我们现在大概就是这种情况。
I think that's kind of where we're at.
我觉得那些可能错过了第一波上涨的人，现在开始进来，关注这批优质币种，想要配置，他们很可能在这个牛市初期阶段进入这些类型的资产。
I think people that are maybe missed the first move are now coming in and looking at this basket of quality coins that they can allocate to, and they're probably going into these types of assets at this early bull stage.
所以我们现在还很早，所以对那些已经建仓的仓位感到满意，但我觉得这是个好时机。
So we're still very early, so happy kinda with some of those positions that were established, but I think it's a good time.
我建议大家去看看。
I I would recommend people check out.
我们发布了观察名单的目标价。
We put out our price targets for the for the watch list.
我们还留下了公允价值目标，那是我们在熊市时的目标。
We also have our fair fair value targets that we left in there that were our bear market targets.
所以你可以分析一下我们在熊市时的看法，以及现在相对于之前周期高点的交易位置，然后看看我们对下一个周期的预期。
So you can kind of analyze both sort of how we viewed things in the bear market and and where things are trading relative to their prior cycle highs, and then you can look at how we think things might go for the next cycle.
我们的一些牛市目标价对各位来说也是个不错的参考。
And some of our our bull targets could be a good resource for people.
我们还准备了所有关注列表的研究研报，以及配套的数据看板。
We also have all the watch list research reports, data dashboards that we pair with that stuff as well.
分析得很到位。
Great take.
节目接近尾声，我再提醒一下各位听众，这绝对是个好机会。
And as we end this, I'll I'll remind all of our listeners, this is definitely an opportunity.
这是一个牛市早期的重置机会。
It's an early bull market reset opportunity.
再说一遍，如果迈克说得对，分析也没错，我们正处于加密货币牛市的早期阶段，之前看到的山寨币投机可能只是未来行情的预兆。这时候是个好时机，可以去评估一些关键代币和项目，如果你手头还有余钱，不妨考虑建仓。
Again, if Mike is right and the analysis is correct and we're in early crypto bull market, the altcoin speculation that we saw could be a murmur of things to come, and this is an opportunity to go evaluate key tokens and projects and maybe enter into some positions if you still have some cash remaining.
如果你想获取更多深度见解，这也是订阅 TDR Pro 的好机会。
And if you want some further insights, also an opportunity to lock into TDR Pro.
你可以解锁今天的报告，里面详细讨论了刚才提到的 Robinhood 篮子，以及为什么迈克认为这对未来来说是个绝佳的机会，还提到了我们提到的其他资产。
You can unlock today's report with the Robinhood basket that we just discussed and why Mike thinks that that could be a fantastic opportunity moving forward and some of the other assets that we mentioned.
我还想说，和所有牛市早期的机会一样，现在有机会提前锁定，获得深度价值。
And I should also say this, as with all early bull market opportunities there is an opportunity to kind of lock in early and get deep value.
现在TDR Pro的深度价值就是每月只要16.67美元。
As deep value on the TDR right now, TDR Pro is only 16.67 per month.
对吧？
Okay?
便宜得离谱。
Criminally cheap.
便宜得离谱。
Criminally cheap.
便宜得离谱。
Criminally cheap.
而且Mike打算把这个价格再保持几个月，不会太久，因为明年甚至更早，TDR Pro的价格就会上涨。
Also Mike is going to keep it at that rate for I guess a few more months, not for very much longer because next year could be even earlier than next year, prices will increase in the TDR Pro.
所以如果你现在听TDR，你算是早的，而且有机会提前锁定价格，基本上是终身有效的。
So if you're listening now to TDR, you are early on the podcast, and also there's an opportunity to lock in your pricing early for life effectively.
因为一旦价格上涨，就不会再降下来了。
Because once prices rise, they won't go down.
就像通胀目标一样。
It's like inflation targets.
好了。
Alright.
所以现在你可以以折扣价获得TDR，如果你现在锁定并保持订阅不间断，你将永久享受这个价格。
So right now you can get TDR at a discount, and if you lock in now and have an uninterrupted subscription, you'll carry that price permanently.
我不知道。
I don't know.
也许你可以把它传给你的孩子和孙子，如果你愿意的话。
Maybe you can pass it down to your kids and your grandkids if you want.
16.67美元在2026年听起来就像捡了个大便宜。
The $16.67 in $20.26 dollars, it sounds like a steal.
各位，我们下周见。
Guys, we will see you next week.
当然，我们每周都会发布这个内容，所以请在所有频道订阅收听。另外，我要告诉你，这些都不是财务建议。
Of course, we always publish this on a weekly basis, so subscribe on all channels to hear this, And I will let you know none of this has been financial advice.
这是一本投资者日志。
This is an investor journal.
我们和你一起在旅途中。
We're on the journey alongside you.
所以下次再见，保持好奇心。
So until next time, stay curious.
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