指南：驾驭下一轮加密货币牛市

它会进入一种疯狂状态，我们上个周期在模因币上就看到了这种情况，它们当时表现得很夸张。

It goes into a frenzy, and we saw this with, like, meme coins last cycle doing...

你知道，上个周期这个时期，它们涨了222倍。

You know, bonked at a 222 x during this period last cycle.

所以这个时候事情就会变得有点失控，市场会暂时完全脱离现实。

So this is when things just kinda go go nuts and, you know, the market just completely detaches from reality for a little while.

而且，你知道，这就是……

And this is, you know, this was...

这一切都发生在比特币见顶之前，你知道，六个月之后比特币才见顶。

This all happened before, you know, Bitcoin had peaked, you know, six months later.

所有这一切都发生在比特币在上个周期十月份达到高点之前。

All of this played out well before Bitcoin hit its highs in October of the last cycle.

所以我先说到这里，但这就是关于财富创造的一些值得关注的点，我想。

So I'll pause there, but that's kind of, like, some idea of what to look for, I guess, in in wealth creation.

好的。

Okay.

除了回复家人问比特币涨了之后该不该买XRP之类的短信，因为你知道那种短信肯定会来的。

So other than answering your family member's texts about should I buy XRP after Bitcoin has talked or whatever because you know that text is gonna be sent.

还有什么……

What else...

你打算怎么玩财富创造？

How do you intend to play wealth creation?

是不是就坐在那儿让赢家继续涨，然后开始考虑卖出？

Is that where you just like sit back and let the winners rise and then start thinking about selling?

或者从宏观层面，你打算怎么操作？

Or high level, how do you intend to play that?

在之前的财富创造时期，什么策略比较有效？

What's been effective in previous wealth creation eras?

我觉得这时候我会开始更关注市场的结构，看看发生了什么。

I think this is when I will start to get more concerned about the structure of the market, what's happening.

我会关注杠杆仓位。

I'll be looking at leverage positions.

我会关注市场的情绪。

I will be looking at, you know, sentiment in the market.

你会看我们的仓位、投资组合，以及组合中某些部分是否增长到了让我不舒服的程度，或者需要重新平衡。

You're looking at our positions, our portfolio, and whether certain parts of the portfolio have, you know, grown in size that I'm uncomfortable with or maybe I need to to rebalance.

所以当我看到一些情况时，我会开始转向风险规避模式。

So I will be starting to turn into, like, risk off Mike when I when I when I see things.

就在大家都过于激进的时候，我可能会开始对整体局势的结构感到有些紧张。

Just as everybody is is getting over their skis, I'll probably start to get a little nervous about the structure of how everything's playing out.

然后，我们走着瞧吧。

And, you know, we'll we'll see.

我无法预测事情会如何发展。

I I can't predict, like, how things are gonna play out.

我……

I I...

从宏观层面来看，我要做的是深入了解市场目前的结构位置，确保自己能客观观察市场，不让自己陷进去，同时能够管理风险，管理好仓位，随着局势的发展来应对。

What I'm trying to do from a high level is, like, deeply understand where we're at in the structure of the market, make sure I'm just able to observe the market as it is and not get too caught up in it myself and be able to sort of manage risk, manage the the the positions as that as that plays out.

我想说的是，财富创造阶段基本上在特朗普推出他的 meme 币时就达到了顶峰，那时候有好几位总统都推出了 meme 币。

The the thing that I would say is, like, the wealth creation phase is, this this this basically peaked out when Trump launched his meme coin, when there was, like, multiple presidents launched meme coins.

那种时刻，对我来说，是上个周期里最投机的时期，而我在那个时候已经开始转向风险规避了。

Like, those types of moments, like, to me, that was the most speculative period in the last cycle, and I was starting to go risk off at this point.

那是 2025 年 1 月，距离比特币见顶还有十个月。

This was, like, January 2025, so it's still ten months before Bitcoin had peaked.

但如果你回顾 2025 年 1 月到 10 月那段时期，你会发现，所有高度投机的领域……

But if you go back and look at that period between January '25 and October '25, what you'll notice is, like, all of the highly speculative pockets of the...

加密货币的那些图表，从那时起就开始下跌了。

Of crypto, the charts were going down like they were down from that period.

比特币呢，基本上保持水平，慢慢往上爬，可能还有一些其他领域出现了资金轮动。

Bitcoin, you know, was sort of holding its level and and, you know, kinda grinding up, and maybe some other pockets where we're seeing, you know, capital rotations.

热钱在流向其他板块，但当你看到一些图表已经见顶时，这是一个信号。

The hot ball on money is sort of moving to other sectors, but it's an indicator when you see, like, some of these charts, they've already peaked.

它们很早就见顶了，我们要注意，这种情况可能发生，仅仅因为某样东西在上涨。

They've already peaked very early, and we wanna be, like, we wanna be mindful that that that can happen just because something's going up.

你不会想说，哦，比特币还没到顶。

You don't wanna say, oh, Bitcoin hasn't peaked yet.

这东西会一直涨下去。

This thing's just gonna keep going.

嗯，也许不会。

Well, maybe not.

也许热钱会轮动到其他领域，这绝对是我们在这段时间需要注意的。

Maybe the hot ball of money is gonna rotate to other areas, and that's something we definitely wanna be mindful of during this this period.

所以在财富创造阶段，如果你是TDR Pro会员，预计会看到更多卖出信号。

So during wealth creation, expect to see if you're a TDR Pro member a bit more alert for selling.

更多的再平衡，偏风险规避的姿态，以便提前应对接下来的阶段——财富分配。

A bit more rebalancing, risk off type posture to try to get ahead of what is to come, which is the next phase, wealth distribution.

对。

Yep.

那么在这个最后阶段会发生什么呢……

So what happens during this final phase of the...

其实，我们还可以聊聊财富毁灭。

Well, actually, there's the wealth destruction we could talk about.

第三阶段，财富分配，那会发生什么？

The third phase, wealth distribution, what happens there?

我觉得这样理解可能比较好。

So, you know, I think this is probably a good way to think of it.

就像特朗普在2025年1月推出他的模因币时，Solana达到了顶峰。

So, like, just as Trump is launching his meme coin in January 2025, Solana peaks out.

我们那时候正在退出Solana的头寸，然后开始……

We were exiting our Solana position at at that point and kind of started...

当时还没卖比特币，但卖的是那时涨幅最大的资产。

It wasn't selling Bitcoin yet, but was selling the things that had gone up the most at that point

在市场里。

in market.

那你们退出Solana是为了买比特币，还是换成现金，还是两者都有？

So Were you exiting Solana for Bitcoin or was it for cash or is it a kind of a combination?

我们当时就是打算换成现金。

We were just going to cash.

后来我确实又买了一些比特币，是在……

I did end up buying some more Bitcoin after the...

2025年4月它跌了之后。

It dropped in April '25.

所以总有办法去锁定一些收益。

So there's always ways to, like, take some of those gains.

如果你觉得比特币还有50%到100%的上涨空间，那你可以在周期后期再抓住那个上涨机会。

And if you think Bitcoin still has a 50 to a 100% move, you know, you can catch that, you know, that upside in Bitcoin later in the cycle.

但我们开始转向避险了。

But we were starting to go risk off.

我觉得大家应该这样想，尤其是那些从低点就一直在市场里的人，那些一直在市场里的人，其实一直在等这些时刻，等大量资金涌入，等其他的东西真正起飞。

And I think this is how people should think about it, especially if you've been in the market from the lows, is the people that have been in the market, you know, have been waiting for these moments for, like, lots of capital to come in and other, you know, things to really take off.

所以如果有人已经赚了10倍，而人们正在……

And so if somebody's up, you know, 10 x and people are...

新的人进入市场，可能有很多新的需求进来。

New people are coming into the market, maybe there's plenty of new demand coming in.

但市场结构开始转变，因为聪明的钱在离开，而你带来了一批新的用户，他们可能对加密货币不熟悉，还在学习这些东西。

But the market structure starts to shift because the the sort of smart money is leaving, and you're bringing in a new cohort of users that may be new to crypto that, you know, are just learning about these things.

他们以为自己来得早，但实际上已经非常晚了。

They think they're early, but they're actually very late to the cycle.

所以现在市场结构，这就是我们这周要讲的……

So you're now the market structure, and this is week we cover...

我们要讲……

We're gonna cover...

我们一路讲过了熊市，讲到了币如何在成本基础群体之间转移。

We covered it all the way through the bear market, how the coins are shuffling between cost basis cohorts.

但在周期顶部，上次让我犹豫的是……

But at the top of the cycle, what gave me pause last...

在去年九月、十月的时候，从一月到九月、十月，比特币基本上在一个区间内波动了九个月。

Back in September, October was that we had basically a nine month period from January 25 through September, October 25 where Bitcoin was kind of, like, in a range.

所以有很多新资金涌入，但你知道那些赚了五六倍的聪明钱正在离场。

So you had plenty of new money coming in, but you knew the sort of smart money that was up five, six x, they were leaving.

因此市场结构已经发生了变化，大部分币都集中在这些顶级买家群体手中。

And so the market structure had shifted where the most coins were held in these top buyer cohorts.

然后我们经历了山寨季，再加上随之而来的所有杠杆。

And then we had dot season and all the leverage that came in on top of that.

所以那是一个非常明确的信号。

So that was, like, a very clear setup.

你知道，事后看来，显然我们确实采取了行动……

You know, in hindsight, obviously, we did act...

我们确实退出了市场，但这样做是逆势而为。

We we got out of the market, but we were contrarian to do that.

但我对逆势操作感到安心，因为我遵循市场结构，思考风险如何积累，然后将其与叙事相结合。

But I was comfortable being contrarian because I'm following the market structure and how I think the risk is building and then sort of lining that up with the narratives.

而且我不……

And I don't...

如果我不认同那些叙事，而且我……

If I don't agree with those narratives and I...

而且没人讨论市场结构，那么对我来说，这其实是个信号，表明我们可能应该在那时转向更谨慎的立场。

And no one's talking about market structure, then, you know, to me, it's an indicator that we probably should be going more towards a risk off stance at that stage.

所以在财富分配阶段，你确实在密切关注你提到的持币者轮换指标。

So during wealth distribution, you're really keeping an eye on the coin holder rotation metrics that you talked about.

我的意思是，你可以从这里的图表中看到，对于那些关注的人来说，大量获利了结，即使当时大家都认为牛市还处于早期。

I mean, you could see it in the chart here for for those who are paying attention to this, a ton of profit taking even while everyone thought the bull market was was still Early.

对。

On Yep.

对。

Yep.

而且我们确实还算早期。

And we were still kind of early.

你看到了获利了结，这让你为接下来的财富毁灭阶段做好了准备，那大概是第四阶段，也就是尾声。

You saw the profit taking and that caused you to position well for then the wealth destruction phase, which is the fourth phase, I suppose, and that's sort of the end.

我的意思是，牛市早期是财富创造阶段，然后是财富分配阶段。

I mean, the the bull market is early bull wealth creation and then wealth distribution.

从宏观层面看，你觉得这次还会像之前那样，持续三年左右吗？

High level, do you expect that to play out over, you know, three years again as previously?

所以我们现在是在说，如果现在是牛市早期，2026、2027、2028年，然后到2029年情况开始转变？

So are we talking about if we're early bull right now, 2026, 2027, and 2028, and then things start to turn in 2029?

你觉得那会是什么样子？

What does that look like to you?

显然，这取决于你在数据中看到的情况，但没错。

Obviously, this will depend on what you see in the data, but Yep.

大致来说。

Broad strokes.

这个……

It...

我觉得很有意思的是，我们一直看到大约一年的熊市，可能稍微短一点，但我们已经看到大约熊市……

I mean, it's fascinating to me that we have just consistently seen these roughly one year with this bear market possibly a little shorter, but we've seen roughly bear...

一年熊市，然后大概三年的扩张期，覆盖这些阶段。

One year bear market and then, like, three years of expansion covering these these phases.

对于为什么会出现这种四年周期，我没有特别好的解释，除了某种程度上它跟财政政策、货币政策、全球流动性，还有债务再融资安排这些情况对得上。

I don't have a great explanation why it's happening over these four year cycles other than, in some ways, it lines up with sort of what what we're seeing with fiscal policy, monetary policy, global liquidity, some of these other things, the the sort of debt refinancing schedule.

我觉得这些因素跟比特币和四年周期有些关系。

I think some of that is playing into to this with Bitcoin and these four year cycles.

但我最依赖的是我们追踪的数据，用来判断我们现在处于周期的哪个位置。

But the thing that I'm most anchored to is the data that we track to try to identify where we're at within within the cycles.

这会真正指导我如何管理风险和投资组合。

That's gonna, you know, really inform how I how I sort of manage risk and manage the portfolio.

但没错，我会说我一直锚定于过去的情况，如果过去是这样发生的，我就会锚定于那个模式。

But, yes, I would say I'm always anchored to, like, yes, if it happened in the past like that, I'm sort of anchored to that.

然后我会看数据，看看有没有什么数据会让我改变那个立场。

And then I'll be looking at the data just to see if there's anything in the data that's gonna shake me out of out of that that position.

所以

So

我们来谈谈有什么不同，以及我们可以期待什么。

Let's talk about what's different, what we can expect.

所以这是第二部分。

So this is the second part.

如果那些是周期，你对即将到来的牛市有什么预期？

If those are the cycles, what are your expectations for the coming bull run?

就是那个可能在2026年9月开始的牛市。

So the bull run that maybe has started in 2026, September.

我记得你在今天的报告里说过，你实际上预期这次牛市会比上一次更大。

I think you said this in in in today's report that you actually expect that this bull run could be even bigger than the last.

你能详细说说吗？

Can you talk about that?

是的。

Yes.

而且我之前在预测比特币能达到什么价位时，有些判断是错的。

And I was wrong about sort of some of the calls we made in terms of, like, where we thought Bitcoin could get to.

我原本以为上个周期会超过12万6千，所以先说明一下。

I thought we'd see, you know, more than a 126 k last cycle, so I'll preface with that.

你上个周期是怎么想的？

What did what did you what did you think last cycle?

我原本以为会到15万以上，15万以上，所以你知道……

I thought we would see a 150 plus, a 150 k plus, and so, you know...

但那是我不得不改变想法的地方，然后说，好吧。

But that was something I had to change my mind on and say, alright.

我得退出市场，因为市场结构告诉我，那个可能性大概不会发生了。

I'm gonna have to exit the market because the market structure's telling me that that that that the probability is probably not gonna happen.

而且，你知道，当我……

And, you know, when I...

当你回头看看……

When you go back and just...

你知道，为什么比特币这个周期表现得稍微平淡一些，但我觉得，从低点算起，它还是涨了六七倍。

You know, why did Bitcoin have a little bit more of a muted cycle, which was still, I would say, you know, still went up six, seven x from the low.

所以这就是……

So that's a...

所以在那段时间里，它远远超过了其他所有基准。

So wildly outperform any other benchmarks during that that period.

但为什么它没有达到我们预期的一些水平呢，尤其是在特朗普执政期间，你知道，他们上台后，我们有了一个更友好的美国证券交易委员会，所有这些因素？

But why did it sort of maybe not get to some of the levels we thought it could get to, especially during a Trump presidency when, you know, they came in and we got a a a much more aligned SEC, all of these things?

我觉得，你知道，很明显，人工智能在上一个周期里确实吸引了投资者的注意力。

I think, you know, we know that, obviously, AI really captured the mindshare of of investors in the in the past cycle.

我们知道黄金和白银都经历了大涨，而且黄金的表现超过了比特币。

We know gold and silver had bull bull bull runs, and gold outperformed Bitcoin.

对比特币来说，情况看起来确实不太好。

It just wasn't looking very good for for Bitcoin.

当黄金的表现超过比特币时，比特币的吸引力就不那么大了。

Sort of the, you know, the appeal of Bitcoin is not great when gold is is is outperforming it.

所以我觉得这些因素确实让那些在上一个周期想进入加密货币领域的人打了退堂鼓。

So I think some of these things sort of put a damper on on people that wanted to come into to crypto in the last cycle.

而且从流动性和货币政策、财政政策的角度来看，美联储在上一个加密货币周期中一直在缩减资产负债表。

And then just from, like, a kind of liquidity monetary policy, fiscal policy perspective, the Fed was reducing its balance sheet, you know, like, during the last crypto cycle.

所以我觉得，如果在那轮周期开始前有人跟你说，嘿。

So I think if you had said to someone before that cycle started that, hey.

美联储的利率会保持在高位，而且美联储实际上会在加密货币周期中缩减资产负债表，我想人们很难想象模因币会疯涨，比特币还能涨六七倍。

The Fed, you know, interest rates are gonna remain kind of elevated, and the Fed's actually gonna be reducing its its balance sheet through a crypto cycle, I think people would have had a hard time imagining that we'd have meme coins going crazy and that Bitcoin would still go up six, seven x.

所以，考虑到我们可能进入一个资产负债表实际上在扩张的周期，这种情况的发生相当有趣。

So the fact that that happened is pretty interesting when you think about where we could be going in a cycle where where actually the balance sheet is increasing.

现在财政部和新的美联储主席之间有了新的协议。

You've got, like, this new accord between the treasury and the new Fed chair.

我们已经看到了很多早期信号，比特币在过去一个月表现不错的部分原因就是财政部发出的这些信号，他们担心利率、政府的利息支出、超过40万亿美元的债务，并且可能试图通过回购来防止收益率曲线长端的波动，试图防止长端收益率走向自由市场想要的方向。

We've seen a lot of these early signals, and part of the reason that Bitcoin has been doing well over the last month is these signals coming from the treasury department about their concern with interest rates, with interest expense of the government, with the amount of debt that we have over 40,000,000,000,000, and potentially, you know, trying to prevent volatility on the long end of the yield curve with buybacks and trying to prevent, you know, the long end to to sort of go to where the free market wants it to go.

如果是这样的话，我认为接下来会发生的是，你会……

If that's the case, what I think is going to happen is you're going to...

投资者会做出理性、合乎逻辑的选择，他们会……

Investors are gonna do the rational, logical thing, and they're going to...

你会把资金推向其他那些非主权、硬通货的价值储存用途。

You're gonna push capital into these other store of value, non sovereign, hard money use cases.

而且我觉得，在比特币已经被金融化并融入传统金融体系的这个时期，加密货币处于一个相当有利的位置来抓住这个机会。

And I think crypto is in a pretty good position to to capture this at a period when Bitcoin has already been financialized into the the the the traditional finance system.

我觉得，围绕这些的普及教育……

And I think just education around these...

围绕加密货币的教育和需求。

Around crypto and demand for crypto.

我们知道，大约有5000万美国人持有加密货币。

We know, you know, roughly 50,000,000 Americans own crypto.

这……

It's...

你知道，我觉得加密货币的污名正在消退。

You know, I think the stigma of crypto is wearing off.

所以所有这些因素都在汇聚。

So all of these things are combining.

我们看到移动应用正在兴起。

We're seeing mobile apps.

我们……

We...

我觉得基础设施已经准备好了。

I think the infrastructure's ready.

所以就是……

So just...

很多因素正在汇聚，让我觉得这可能是一个更大的周期，而与此同时，即使是加密货币的原住民也对行业未来的走向有些悲观。

It's a lot of things that are kinda coming together that make me think that, you know, this could be a bigger cycle at a time when, like, even crypto natives are a little bit down on sort of where, you know, maybe where the industry is going.

所以，是的，我觉得把这些综合起来看，可能性是我们会看到一个更大的周期，而且我们会有我们的上行价格目标，这些会分享给Pro会员。

So, yeah, I think when you combine it all together, I think the probabilities are that we see a larger cycle, and we're gonna have our sort of upside price targets that we'll be sharing with with Pro members.

这包含在你的Pro订阅中。

This comes with your Pro subscription.

一旦我们确认比特币已经脱离了这个……，我们就会分享这些目标。

We'll be sharing those as soon as we have confirmation that Bitcoin has shifted out of this...

这里已经进入了牛市早期阶段。

Shifted into the the early bull stage here.

那真的很酷。

That's really cool.

所以你认为这个周期可能比上一个更大，我觉得这意味着比特币会有更大的升值空间。

So you think this cycle could be larger than the last, and I think that implies, you know, bigger Bitcoin appreciation.

那上个周期我们是不是涨了五六倍？

So did we do, like, a five, six x last cycle?

差不多从最低点涨了将近七倍。

Roughly almost seven x from, like, the very low

从底部到顶部。

From bottom to the top.

峰值。

Peak.

对。

Yep.

所以你觉得这次可能会超过上次，而且你会为观察名单上的每种资产设定牛市价格目标。

So you think it could exceed that, and you're going to call sort of the bull price targets for each of the assets on the watch list.

我记得观察名单上有大概30种资产吧？

I think there are, what, 30 assets in the watch

差不多35种。

35 or so on there.

观察名单上有35种资产。

35 assets in the watch list.

之前，在避险情绪浓厚的时期，这些资产都有公允价值区间和深度价值区间。

Previously, during the risk off Mike season, those all had fair value ranges and also deep value ranges.

所以那些是偏空头的价格预测。

So those were price calls on kind of the bearish side.

现在，你将在未来几周发布这些资产的上涨目标，也就是牛市目标，这些内容对TDR Pro会员开放。

Now you're going to be publishing in the weeks to come the the upside targets, the bull market targets for each of these assets on the watch list, and that's available to TDR Pro members.

好的。

Okay.

那真是令人兴奋。

So that's exciting.

这是对牛市行情的广泛预期。

That is broad expectations for the bull run.

当然。

Sure.

你能谈谈到目前为止你是怎么操作的吗？

Can you talk about how you are playing it so far?

能不能重点说说你现在看好的几个板块和主题，这些已经为TDR带来了超额收益，也许也预示着这轮牛市周期早期和财富创造阶段的一些趋势？

Maybe highlight a few of the the sectors and themes that you like right now that have provided some of that overperformance for for TDR and that are signs maybe of things to come in the early bull and the wealth creation phases of this upcoming bull cycle?

是的。

Yes.

比特币仍然是投资组合的基石。

So Bitcoin still anchors the portfolio.

它在投资组合中的占比比平时要小，部分原因是非比特币资产的表现更好。

It's it's a smaller percentage of the portfolio than it normally is, and part of that's because the non Bitcoin exposure has outperformed.

但在熊市里，我们部署的资金中大约有44%投向了比特币，不过由于其他资产表现更好，现在比特币在投资组合中的占比反而小了很多。

But but in the bear market, we allocated about 44% of the capital that was deployed actually went to Bitcoin, but it's actually represents a much smaller percentage of the portfolio right now because of outperformance from other assets.

但在这个周期初期，我特别想接触的领域，我们为社交交易建立了一个投资论点。

But the things that I really, you know, wanna have exposure to, especially early in this cycle, we built a thesis for the social trading.

我把它称为市场的快速DeFi领域。

I call it kind of fast DeFi area of the market.

我们早在……就开始讨论Pump Fun了。

We started talking about pump fun back in...

我记得是四月份，那时候我一直在关注这个。

I believe it was April, and this is something that I was monitoring at the time.

我觉得当时大家的注意力都集中在永续合约和Hyperliquid上，以及那里发生的事情。

I think most of the attention was on Perps and Hyperliquid and what was going on there.

然后我们开始关注Pump Fun。

And we started to look at Pump Fun.

我们建了一个仪表盘。

We built a dashboard.

我觉得这是市场上最全面的仪表盘了，涵盖了Pump Fun上的一切动态。

I think it's the most extensive dashboard, like, available in the market in terms of everything that's going on on Pump Fun.

我当时还挺惊讶的，它每天能赚一百万美元的收入。

And I was just surprised that it was doing, you know, a million dollars a day in revenue.

它的收入很高，创作者们也在平台上赚了很多钱。

It was doing a lot of revenue in terms of creator creators making lots of money on the platform.

我们有……

We have...

我们做了一些用户留存统计，我当时真的被这些数据震撼到了，跟其他消费类应用相比，它的用户留存表现非常出色。

We did some user retention statistics, and I was just kind of, like, blown away at, like, the user retention stats relative to what you would look for at, like, comparing it to other consumer apps and stuff like that.

所以我当时就觉得，这里肯定有什么有趣的事情在发生。

So I kind of built this view that, like, something interesting is going on here.

然后你上加密货币推特一看，他们就是……

And then when you go on crypto Twitter, they're just...

关于Pump的讨论，我觉得大概95%都是负面的，主要针对这个资产本身。

The discussion around pump is, like, mostly, like, I would say, like, 95% negative about sort of the asset.

大家都觉得这些收入是假的。

Everyone sort of had these views that these revenues are fake.

基本上，它已经死了。

Basically, it's dead.

那是刷量交易。

It's wash trading.

它不会再回来了。

It's never coming back.

那只是一时的热潮。

That was a fad.

那就像豆豆娃一样，你看到的是各种不同的指标。

That was beanie babies, and you're seeing different indicators.

差不多就是这样，然后我们……

That was kind of what happened, and we...

所以我们就在那里建立了一个论点。

So we built a thesis there.

我们分享了很多研究。

We shared a lot of research.

我们认为，从Hyperliquid的估值来看，Pump是比Hyperliquid更好的投资，更能建立信心。

We thought that pump was a better investment to to to build conviction on than Hyperliquid from where Hyperliquid's valuation was.

我们做了一个……

We did a...

实际上，我们建了一个仪表盘，从基本面角度比较这两个资产。

Actually, we built a dashboard comparing the two assets from a fundamental perspective.

所以，是的，我们认为这是加密货币的一个增长领域。

So, yeah, so this is an area we think this is just a growth sector for for crypto.

而且我觉得在某种程度上，它吸引的用户和典型的加密货币推特用户不一样。

And I think in some ways, it's hitting a different user than, like, your typical crypto Twitter user.

我觉得Pump正在变成一种……

I think pump is is is becoming somewhat of, like, a...

这是一种社交体验。

This is a social experience.

我觉得我在Meme币上最关注的一点就是，这是一种社交体验。

I think this is the piece that I try to focus on with Meme Coins is like, this is a social experience.

它更像是一种游戏。

It's kind of more of gaming.

它是交易。

It's trading.

它是游戏。

It's gaming.

它是社交。

It's social.

它融合了多种有趣的东西，似乎很受年轻人的欢迎。

It's kind of this interesting mix of things that seems to be resonating with with the younger kids.

我觉得我们正在……

Think we are...

我们正在成为加密领域里的那种怪人吧。

We're becoming sort of like these these unks, I guess, in the in the crypto space.

这不是一个领域……

This is not an area...

这不是我参与的领域，但我一直在关注。

It's not an area that I'm playing in, but I'm watching it.

我在下载那些应用。

I'm downloading the apps.

我在测试。

I'm testing it.

我有参与，但我没有深入其中，你知道的，没有在一线。

I'm I'm involved, but I'm not down there, you know, in the trenches.

但我尊重那里发生的事情，而且我们已经形成了一个观点。

But I I respect what's going on down there, and we've built a, you know, a thesis.

所以，这是我们关注的领域……

So so this is an area we've got...

这是我们最有信心的投资方向。

This was our highest conviction play.

然后我们配置到了Pawns，而且是在市值很低的时候进入的，我们对此很兴奋。

We then allocated to pawns, and we got into pawns at at a very low market cap, and we're excited about that.

我们一直持有那个仓位。

We're holding that position.

它涨了很多，现在从高点跌了大概40%，但我们仍然赚了好几倍。

It went way up, and now it's it's down 40% or so from where it was, but we're still up, you know, multiples on that.

所以这是一种参与早期牛市的方式，我们看看它会不会脱离……

So that's one way to play sort of the, I would say, maybe the early bull, and we'll see if this sort of detaches...

你知道，我们看看接下来会怎样，我们会监控……

You know, we'll see where this goes, and we're gonna monitor the...

随着周期的发展进行监控。

Monitor it as the cycle plays out.

竞争很激烈，所以预测起来越来越……

There's a lot of competition, so it's getting, you know, diff...

越来越难预测事情会怎么发展。

More difficult to project, you know, kinda how this is gonna play out.

所以，为了让大家了解整个过程，也为了回顾一下你做的事情，你看到了市场其他人没看到的东西，这是一种逆向思维，还有Pump的一些链上基本面，这让你发表了关于Pump的研究，并给它设定了一个公允价值和深度价值市场价格。

So to link people to the process here and just to go through what you you built, you saw something the rest of the market didn't see, which was contrarian and some of the onchain fundamentals of pump that caused you to publish research about pump and to create a fair value and deep value market price on it.

然后TDR投资组合采取了行动，所以TDR Pro会员看到了所有这些研究，然后他们在你买入时也看到了价格提醒。

The TDR portfolio then took action, so TDR Pro members saw all of that research, and then they also saw the price alerts when you were purchasing.

而且在熊市期间，有时候你在Pump的头寸上是亏损的，所以你必须有信念，你得坚持持有，现在你在这个时间点已经盈利了，如果我没记错的话，那个头寸大概涨了三四倍。

And at times during the bear market, you were underwater on the pump position, so you had to have conviction, you had to kind of hold through that, and now you're up right now at this this point in time, something like a three four x on that position if I'm tracking correctly.

但是那种信念，那个早期牛市赢家，也让你很早就看到了另一个类似相关的资产，那就是Pawns，然后你投入了不是很多，但是一小部分投资组合在那里，结果回报非常丰厚。

But then that conviction, that early bull win, also led you to see another asset that was kind of similar adjacent to it very early on, which was pawns, and then deploy not a crazy amount, but a small amount of the portfolio there, and that paid off in a big way.

那个资产从，我不知道，占投资组合的百分之一二，涨到了，对。

Something that grew from like, I don't know, one, two percent of the portfolio to like Yep.

高得多，大概百分之十左右。

Much higher, like a 10% or something like that.

对。

Yep.

这就是你通常玩这些板块、主题和资产，并识别赢家的方式。

That is how you generally play these sectors and themes and these assets and identify the winners.

这是严谨的研究。

It's rigorous research.

有点像，你知道的，检验你的假设。

It's kind of like, you know, testing your assumptions.

这是基于信念的买入，并且将这一切作为投资者日志开源给TDR社区。

It's conviction buys, and it's open sourcing all of this as an investor journal to the TDR community.

没错。

That's right.

而且，你知道，作为发布内容并能即时获得反馈的人，其中一个优势就是我们什么都不隐瞒。

And, you know, one of the advantages, I guess, of just being somebody who publishes content and and gets instant feedback is, like, we, you know, we don't hide anything.

我把这个pump的论点公开了，任何人都可以质疑。

I put this pump thesis out there for for anybody that could've could've asked it.

我们分享仪表盘。

We share the dashboards.

然后……

And...

但对我来说，把这些都公开的价值在于，我们能从市场得到反馈。

But the value for me of, like, giving all this away is, like, we get feedback from the market.

所以我希望...

So I want it...

我...

I...

当我们形成观点时，我想知道所有反对我的观点是什么，这样我才觉得自己比那些在这个问题上不同意我的人更聪明。

When we form a thesis, like, I wanna know what are all the opposing views on my view so that I feel like I'm smarter than the people who disagree with me on the subject.

这是查理·芒格的一个话题，我觉得非常有价值。

This is a Charlie Munger topic that I think is, like, incredibly valuable.

所以我们实际上...

So we actually...

我们发布的报告是...

The report we published was...

基本上是因为我们形成了一个观点才产生的。

It was basically produced because we we formed a thesis.

我们去了社交媒体上。

We went on social media.

我们讨论了这件事。

We talked about it.

然后我把所有我不同意的反馈都收集起来，写了篇文章解释我们为什么不同意，这样大家就能明白，这是市场的看法，而我们是这么想的。

And then I took all of the feedback that I got that I disagreed with, and we wrote about that and why we disagree with it so people could understand this is the this is the view of the market, this is how we're thinking about it.

我觉得如果大家回头看看那篇文章，会发现我们是第一批讨论这些想法的人。

And I think if people go back and look at that, I think we were the first people talking about some of those some of these ideas.

所以我觉得你们确实是，而且这很好地展示了你们是怎么操作的。

So I think you were, and that's a great example of of basically how how you play it.

你们在稳定币上也有一些仓位。

You also have some positions in stablecoins.

稳定币。

Stablecoins.

另一个可以聊聊的话题是链上永续合约和期权。

Maybe another one to just talk about is onchain perps and options.

当然，整个投资组合的目标，就是跑赢比特币。

And, of course, the broader portfolio, what you're trying to do in the TDR portfolio is beat Bitcoin.

所以比特币就是你的基准和指数，到目前为止，在牛市初期阶段你做得非常好。

So that's your benchmark and your index and doing that incredibly well so far into the kind of this early, you know, bull phase.

然后你有大概10到15个左右的仓位配置。

And then have a allocation of what, you know, 10 to 15 or so positions.

所以是一些集中持仓，你并不是想投资所有东西。

So some concentrated positions, you're not trying to invest in everything out there.

你也不是在追逐热点或者追涨。

You're not trying to chase narratives or chase pumps.

这些是基于高确信度的押注，构成了投资组合的基础。

It's high conviction bets that form the basis of the portfolio.

你关注的另一个类别是链上永续合约和期权。

And another category you've looked at is onchain perps and options.

那么你在这些领域有哪些赢家，你又看到了什么？

So what what are your winners there, and and what did you see?

所以，很明显，考虑到Hype在过去几年里的表现，尤其是自从它们上市以来，这一直是我们感兴趣的领域。

So, obviously, with the performance of hype over the last few years, really since they've come to market, This has been an area of interest.

我们其实并没有参与Hyper Liquid。

We have really not participated in hyper liquid.

我们当时的目标价是15到20美元。

We we had a price target of 15 to $20.

实际上，那是我们的熊市区间，结果它跌到了大约22美元。

Actually, it was our our bear market range, and it came down to, like, $22.

我记得当时还和你一起录过节目。

I actually remember recording with you around this time.

我们聊过这个，但我最后没有配置。

We talked about it, and I didn't end up allocating.

然后，当然，它就从那里开始起飞了。

And, of course, it just kinda took off from there.

那时候我们做了很多研究，试图形成对永续合约市场走向的看法。

We were doing a lot of research at that time trying to form a view of where we thought the the Perps market was going.

我当时得出的结论是，那种真实世界资产……

And kind of what I concluded was that sort of, like, real world asset...

围绕真实世界资产的交易，实际上会首先通过永续合约市场来体现。

Trading around real world assets was actually gonna be first expressed through Perps markets.

我们现在在Robinhood上看到代币化资产就是这样。

We're we're now seeing this with tokenized assets with Robinhood.

我觉得大部分情况下，我们会看到对链上真实世界资产交易的兴趣，通过永续合约来实现，所以我们想在这方面有所布局。

I think for the most part, we're gonna see sort of interest in real world asset trading on onchain through Perps, and so we wanted to have exposure to this.

我们觉得Hype被高估，这也许反而是好事，因为它逼着我去看了其他领域，就这样我们发现了Lighter。

What was maybe good about the fact that we thought hype was overvalued was it forced me to look into some other areas, and that's how we found Lighter.

我们开始做研究的时候，Lighter的市值才2.5亿美元。

Lighter was a $250,000,000 market cap when we started doing the research.

我们开始配置Lighter。

It started to allocate to Lighter.

然后我开始意识到，其实Lighter的产品比Hyperliquid还要好，这对我来说……

And what I started to realize there was I thought the product was was better actually than than Hyperliquid, which is me...

我们可以说Hyperliquid更像是一种基础设施，他们希望别人来在上面构建类似Lighter的应用。

We could sort of say Hyperliquid is more kind of infrastructure, and they want others to come in and build Lighter type apps on top.

但Lighter是在以太坊生态里的。

But lighter was in the Ethereum ecosystem.

我们可以说，这对以太坊来说是个有趣的项目，以太坊社区可能会支持它。

We could sort of build a few that, like, this is an interesting project for Ethereum, and Ethereum community would probably get behind this project.

而且，我真的很喜欢他们设置产品的方式，基本上Lighter上发生的所有交易记录都通过以太坊来处理。

But, also, just really liked the way that they set up the product where basically all of the accounting for what happens on Lighter runs through Ethereum.

从这个角度看，真的很有意思。

It's really interesting from that perspective.

它……

It...

它利用了以太坊的安全性。

It's leveraging the security of Ethereum.

所以，和Hyperliquid相比，它有一些特点让它显得挺有意思的。

So it has some features that make it kind of interesting when you just compare it to to Hyperliquid.

然后我们测试了一下，实际用起来觉得这个产品更好。

And then when we tested it and kind of used it, we thought it was a better product.

所以我们就做了同样的想法，建了个仪表盘，开始聊Lighter，这个资产表现也一直不错。

So built the same idea, built a dashboard, started talking about Lighter, and that has been one of the the better performing assets as well.

而且自从我们进场以来，它的涨幅其实是Hype的两倍。

And it's actually gone up two x from what hype has done since we since we entered that.

不过它的市值仍然只有Hyperliquid的5%左右。

It's still only about 5% of Hyperliquids market cap.

我们当时对Lighter的看法有一部分是，它有可能真的会被整合进Robinhood的应用里。

Lighter part of our view there was that there was a chance that Lighter would actually get integrated into into the Robinhood app.

有点像……

Kind of...

不过我觉得那不会很快发生。

That was not something I thought was imminent.

你懂吧？

You know?

这个发生得非常快，现在通过Robinhood应用进行的永续合约交易量中，大约有90%实际上是通过Lighter路由的，这真的很有意思。

That happens, like, very quickly, and now roughly 90% of the Perps volumes that are going through the Robinhood app are actually routed through Lighter, which is really interesting.

Robinhood和Lighter之间有收入分成协议。

That has a rev share there between Robinhood and Lighter.

所以，我认为在这个周期阶段，这是一个非常有趣的仓位，因为我觉得它实际上可能还有很大的上涨空间，尽管目前在我们的投资组合中它已经涨了三到四倍。

So that's a really interesting position, I think, for this stage of the cycle because I I think it can actually go you know, it probably has a lot of upside even though it's up three, four x, you know, in our portfolio right now.

迈克，我这样理解对吗：这项工作会持续到牛市初期？

And am I right in saying, Mike, that this work continues into the early bull?

所以，研究和发布研究报告、确定合理价值目标以及决定是否应该买入的工作，这些工作会体现在你通过发布投资组合所建立起来的声誉中。

So the work of research and publishing research and figuring out fair value targets and whether you should buy something, that that work gets instantiated in sort of, I guess, your stick weighted reputation of you're actually, like, you know, publishing your portfolio.

无论对错，你都会公开你的投资组合。

Whether it's wrong or whether it's right, you're you're publishing that portfolio as well.

然后，其他订阅TDR内容并成为TDR Pro会员的人，可以获取所有这些研究和价格预测，查看你的投资组合，并与他们自己的投资方向进行比较。

And then other people on the the TDR journey who are subscribed to this and and members of TDR Pro can tap into all of that research and those price calls and look at your portfolio and compare it with where they are going.

这也意味着，迈克，你不需要抓住每一个机会。

This also means, Mike, you don't have to catch everything.

对。

So Right.

错过一些热门项目确实有点遗憾。

A little bit of regret in missing hype.

不过这也让Lighter那边有了不错的收获。

It did lead to a winner on the the lighter side of things.

我知道你错过了一些Zcash的买入机会，也有点遗憾。

I know you've had a little bit of regret in missing some Zcash purchases.

但你也觉得，没必要每件事都做对。

But you're like, you don't have to get everything right, I suppose.

你只需要在投资组合里做对几件事，就能跑赢比特币，表现更好。

You just need to get a few things right in the portfolio for it to it to exceed and for it to perform against Bitcoin.

是的。

Yep.

我觉得你说得很有道理，因为很多问题归根结底是心态，我们经常聊这个。

I think that's a good point that you're making there because I think a lot of this comes back to, like, mindset, and we talk lot about this.

比如说，在X上很容易这样。

Like, it's easy if you're on x.

总会有一些你不了解的资产，而且总有人在讨论它。

Like, there's always gonna be someone in an asset that you don't know and that's talking about it.

而且，你知道，你不可能什么都抓住。

And, you know, you're not gonna you're not gonna hit everything.

你不可能做到完美。

You're not gonna be perfect.

你得稍微调整一下自己的心态。

You gotta kind of, like, level set with yourself.

你不需要……

You don't need...

你只需要几个表现突出的资产。

You only need a couple sort of outperforming assets.

你只需要大致把握住周期，并在这个过程中管理好风险。

You only need to get the cycle largely right and and sort of manage risk through that.

我就是觉得心态很重要，要有一种富足的心态，想着怎么去创造价值、帮助别人，这基本上就是我一直努力在做的事情。

And I just think having the right mindset, having an abundance mindset, you know, thinking of ways that you can add value and and help others, and, like, that's what I mostly, you know, try to do.

投资赚钱确实很有意思。

It's fun to invest and and make money.

我特别好胜，也特别热爱这件事，但更让我满足的是分享研究心得、听取大家的反馈、帮助别人，你知道，帮一些人……

I'm super competitive, and I love doing this, but it's, like, almost more satisfying sharing the research, getting feedback from people, helping, you know, helping, you know, bring some people...

拉别人一把，因为我自己学到的一切也都是从别人那里得来的。

Pull some people up the ladder, you know, because everything that I've done is learned from others as well.

所以我们就是想稍微回馈一下。

So we're just trying to, you know, pay it forward a little bit.

好，那我们就以这个作为结尾吧。

Well, let's end with that then.

最后这部分是关于其他人如何通过TDR在牛市初期锁定机会。

Kind of the the final piece of this is how other folks can lock in for the early bull market with TDR.

首先你要做的，也是你需要知道的是，我和Mike每周都会发布播客。

The very first thing you should do and what you should know is Mike and I publish podcasts on a weekly basis.

这算是未来三年左右的一个宏观指南，但每周我们基本上都会聊聊市场里发生了什么，市场结构怎么样，以及每周的情况是怎么发展的。

This is sort of a a zoom out guide to the next three years or so, but on a weekly basis, we're we're basically talking about what's happening in the market with market structure, what things are looking like and shaping up on a week to week basis.

这些节目每周三更新。

Those episodes come out every Wednesday.

你可以在Spotify、任何你听播客的地方订阅，还有YouTube上也有。

You can subscribe to them on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, also YouTube.

另外还有一份配套的报告，发布在TDR网站上，所以你应该通过邮件注册一下。

There's also a report that accompanies that that's published on the TDR website, so you should sign up via email.

这些报告是给TDR Pro会员的，但每周五还有一份关于特定资产的免费报告。

The reports are for TDR Pro members, but there is a Friday report on a particular asset that is also free every week.

所以记得订阅这些频道。

So subscribe on those channels.

如果你想全面参与，获取投资者日志、带目标价的观察列表，以及包括我们今天讨论的这份指南在内的研究资料。

And then if you wanna fully plug in and get access to the investor journal, the watch list with price targets, if you want the research, including this guide that we talked about today.

还有一整篇书面内容，包含所有图表和Mike如何应对这个市场的所有说明。

So there's a whole written content piece with all of the charts and and all of the the instructions how Mike is approaching this market.

这份指南叫做《迎接牛市指南》。

It's called the guide to the coming bull market.

如果你成为TDR Pro会员，就能在邮箱里收到这份指南。

You can get that in your inbox if you become a TDR Pro member.

这样你就能获得投资组合、这份指南、周三的研究报告以及目标价。

So you get the portfolio, you get this guide, you get the Wednesday research, you get the price targets.

对我来说，这些信息特别有用，我会把它们输入到我的Claude里，和我的投资组合匹配起来，通过这种整合，让Mike、Claude和我的投资组合共同指导我的投资方向。

What I do with all of that information as well, and this has been huge for me, is I plug that into my Claude and I match that with my portfolio, and with that synthesis, I essentially allow Mike and Claude and my portfolio to sort of inform where I'm going.

这是一个非常强大的工具，而且你可以免费获得。

It's an incredibly powerful tool, and you can get that for free.

其实，还有三十天的免费试用期。

Actually, there's a thirty day trial.

如果你想试试看，可以直接注册。

So if you just wanna try that out, you could sign up.

节目说明里有链接，你可以免费获取TDR，而且这些播客也一直免费，你可以通过这种方式注册。

There's a link in the show notes, and you can get the TDR for free, as well as always these podcasts will be free for you so you could sign up that way.

迈克，这真是个激动人心的时刻，兄弟。

Mike, this is an exciting time, man.

接下来几周会非常精彩，我对此相当期待。

We have a very cool set of weeks ahead of us, and I'm pretty excited about this.

这会是，我猜，第四次还是第五次加密货币牛市？

Is this gonna be, I guess, the fourth or the fifth crypto bull market?

我们现在是怎么算这些的？

How are we counting these things now?

我们现在是第四次还是第五次？

Are we in number four or number five?

我觉得2013年算第一次，2017到2021年是第三次，上一轮周期是第四次。

So I would say probably 2013 was number one, 2017 to 2021 was three, last cycle, four.

所以我觉得我们正在进入第五次。

So I would say we're entering the the fifth.

你知道，我们基本上……

You know, we're mostly...

我们对比周期的时候，主要关注最近的几个，因为市场结构在变化什么的。

When we compare cycle to cycle, we're mostly focusing on the more recent ones because the market structure is shifting and all that.

不过，对，第五个周期，以太坊已经存在了，大概从20...

But, yeah, fifth fifth cycle, ETH's been around, what, since '20...

超过十年

Over ten

年了。

years.

所以十年了。

So decade.

比特币呢？

Bitcoin's what?

15年？

15?

比特币超过15年了，而且，你知道，Solana其实才刚过五年。

Bitcoin's over 15, and, you know, Solana really just, you know, all just coming over five years old.

所以整个生态系统都在成熟。

So the entire ecosystem's maturing.

我们已经……

We've...

我们正在与传统金融的监管体系融合。

We're integrating with with TradFi regulations.

我的意思是，这就是……

I mean, this is where...

我觉得，这是我们一直期待的时刻。

What we've all been been waiting for, I think.

所以非常兴奋。

So very excited.

预计会有很多波动。

Expect lots of volatility.

预计事情会起起伏伏，但希望这个框架能帮助人们更好地享受这个周期，通过锚定数据和历史，让他们感觉对事情更有掌控感。

Expect things to be up and down, but, hopefully, this framework can help people enjoy the cycle a little bit more and kind of feel like they're a little bit more in control of of things by anchoring to to data and and history.

好的，感谢所有新听众在牛市初期就加入我们。

Well, thanks to all the new listeners for the early early bull market.

我们很高兴能和你一起。

We're excited to be with you.

我们今天就到这里吧。

Let's end it here.

当然，这些都不是财务建议。

None of this has been financial advice, of course.

这是一个投资者日志，我们和你一起在旅途中。

This is an investor journal, and we're on the journey right alongside you.

那么下次再见，保持好奇心。

So until next time, stay curious.