AI 是否正进入周期的“DAT 季”阶段？

欢迎收听本期报告。

Welcome to the report.

AI是不是要进入它的DAT季节了？

Is AI entering its DAT Season?

你们都是搞加密货币的。

You guys are in crypto.

你们知道DAT季节意味着什么，以及它带来的各种情绪和回忆。

You know what DAT Season means and all of the emotions and and memories that raise.

今天我们就来聊聊这个。

We're gonna talk about that today.

今天是2026年8月19日。

It's 08/19/2026.

我们已经进入加密寒冬十个多月了。

We are ten plus months into crypto winter.

比特币上周收盘价略低于这个至关重要的两百周移动平均线。

Bitcoin just closed the week a shade below this all important two hundred week moving average.

这个月会怎么收盘呢？

How's it gonna close the month?

不过今天的报告主要聚焦在AI交易上。

Today's report turns directly though on the AI trade.

迈克，你总能在像这周这样的时刻找到办法，正好是我特别想听的内容，因为我一直在关注AI交易。

And, Mike, you always find a way to often, on the weeks like, it's exactly what I wanted to hear about because the AI trade has been on my mind.

我的播客里全是相关内容。

It's all through my my podcast feed.

它会往哪个方向发展呢？

Which way is it going to go?

你今天正好谈到了这一点，包括华尔街刚刚承诺并正在与英伟达一起构建的新融资结构。

And you you addressed that today, including the new financing structure that Wall Street has just committed to and is building out with Nvidia.

当然，问题是，这是否有点像去年华尔街开始进入DAT季节模式时的加密货币，还是继续看跌AI是一个巨大的错误？

The question, of course, is does this look a little bit like crypto last year when Wall Street started entering in DAT Season mode, or is it a massive mistake to continue fading AI?

我不想错过AI周期的最后阶段。

I don't wanna miss the the last part of the AI cycle.

我们来聊聊这个话题。

We're gonna talk about that.

英伟达和贝莱德、阿波罗合作了。

Nvidia teaming up with BlackRock, Apollo.

比特币在6万到6万5这个区间好像有一堵买墙，是什么在推动它？

The buy wall that seems to be in effect for Bitcoin in the 60 to 65 zone, What's fueling that?

这能撑多久？

How long can that hold?

当然，你们也知道我们马上要进入九月了，我们之前提过，历史上九月是比特币表现最差的月份。

And of course, you guys know we're heading into September, which we have pointed out has historically been Bitcoin's worst month.

要关注的关键数字，也是我们最后会再提到的，是6万4，6万4千1。

The number to watch, the one we'll return to to the end is 64, 64.1 k.

那是两百周移动平均线。

That is the two hundred week moving average.

这个我们最后也会聊到。

We'll talk about that at the end too.

迈克，快速给你做个状态检查。

Mike, quick vibe check for you.

为什么AI交易让你想起DAT赛季？

Why does the AI trade remind you of DAT Season?

你为什么用那个类比？

Why did why did you call on that analogy?

我关注的是杠杆和信贷的演进过程。

It's the progression of leverage and credit is really what I'm looking at.

新产品不断上市。

New products coming to market.

在热门资产类别中，当资产价格上涨时，看到这种情况是很自然的。

This is something it's it's a very natural thing to see in, like, a hot asset class when asset prices are rising.

我们往往会围绕它创造新产品，创造新的杠杆，让更多资金流入那个资产类别。

We tend to find ways to create new products around that, create new leverage around that, more capital into that that asset class.

所以，这其实就是那个演进过程。

So it's really the just the progression.

这一切最开始是那些超大规模企业用自由现金流来支撑的，然后我们就转向了债务。

This started with, you know, free free cash flows from the the hyperscalers that were really financing all this, and then we moved into debt.

现在我们已经进入了股权发行的阶段，就像谷歌那样，而今天我们还要讨论一个新的融资结构。

We've moved into equity issuance now with what we saw from Google, and now we've got this new financing structure that we'll talk about today.

所以这真的只是这个过程的推进。

So it's just really the the progression of it.

这并不是什么特别大的警示信号。

It's not something that, you know, is, like, a huge red flag.

它只是告诉我，我们真的在更深入地推进这个过程，提前拉动需求，想办法让这场狂欢继续下去。

It just tells me that, like, we're really getting deeper into this process of pulling forward demand and finding ways to kinda keep the music going here.

当我看到英伟达和一些资产管理公司推出这种新的融资平台的消息时，那是我最先谈到的事情。

And when I saw the announcement of this sort of new financing platform that Nvidia is coming to market with with some asset managers, that was kind of the first thing that I talked about.

我们谈过周期。

We talked about cycles.

我们谈过杠杆信贷，以及它如何影响周期。

We talked about leveraging credit and how that plays into cycles.

所以那是我第一时间想到的，然后我就开始稍微研究了一下。

And so that was immediately what what I thought about and started kind of, you know, researching into that a little bit.

所以我很期待深入聊聊这个。

So so excited to get into that.

还有一个有趣的指标。

There was also an interesting metric.

我们追踪的链上数据最近发生了很多事情。

There has been a ton happening with the on chain data that we're tracking.

现在市场很冷清，但这周确实有一个重要的指标出来了，我也很想聊聊这个。

It's very slow out there, but we did have an important metric that actually hit this week that that I'd love to get into as well.

好，那我们就聊聊这两件事吧。

Well, let's talk about both those things.

对。

Yeah.

英伟达的五千亿美元。

$500,000,000,000 by Nvidia.

我听说有个投资人叫加文·贝克，他是个AI的坚定看多者，一直看多，现在还是看多。

I heard an investor, Gavin Baker, he's an AI bull, has been a bull forever, continues to be a bull.

他把英伟达称为AI的中央银行。

He called this Nvidia the central bank of AI.

对吧？

Alright?

所以如果你成了中央银行，可能就会开始遇到中央银行的问题，我们待会儿聊这个。

So you're gonna be a central bank, maybe you start to get central bank problems, we'll talk about that.

不过咱们回到你刚才提到的那个指标。

But let's return to the metric you just mentioned.

所以当我们最初在去年十月转向避险时，至少是在TDR里，你预测比特币会跌破65000美元。

So when we initially went risk off you, at least in the TDR, in last October, you called for something lower than 65 k Bitcoin.

那是你的公允价值价格。

That was your fair market value price.

你当时的想法是，很多币，大部分币最终会落到这个群体手里。

And part of your thinking was that a lot of the coins would end up, the majority of coins would end up in this cohort.

我们上周在报告里讨论的那个群体，5.6万到6.6万这个区间，链上所有买家和所有比特币的持仓成本大部分都集中在这个范围。

The cohort we talked about last week on the report, 56 k to 66 k, the majority of cost basis of all buyers and all Bitcoin in that range on chain.

上周我们说，哦，我们在等这个情况出现，现在它来了，所以我们已经转变了。

Last week, we said, oh, we're waiting to see that, and now it's here, so we have flipped.

所以这真的发生了？

So that happened?

你能谈谈这个吗？

Can you talk about this?

是的。

Yeah.

确实发生了。

That has happened.

发生得比我预期的要快一点，但我们现在已经把这个群体用红色标出来了，5.6万到6.6万。

So happened maybe a little quicker than than I was expecting, but we've got that that cohort highlighted in red here, 56 to 66.

现在它已经占了比特币供应量的12.5%。

It's still it now has 12.5% of the Bitcoin supply.

这是目前最大的持有群体。

That is the number one cohort.

上周它还是第二大的。

It was number two last week.

所以它正在从上面那些群体中吸收筹码，我们持有的供应量已经从7%涨到了12.5%。

So so it's pulling from some of those cohorts above it, and we've gone from 7% of the supply now up to 12 and a half percent.

能确认这个情况已经发生，确实很有意思。

This is an interesting one to be able to check this box that that this has played out.

另外我在关注的是92到108这个区间的群体，他们持有的币种比例还在持续下降。

The other stuff that I'm that I'm looking at is that 92 to one zero eight k cohort, which continues to climb in terms of the percentage of coins that are leaving that cohort.

现在已经下降了21.5%。

So it's down 21.5% now.

类似的群体在2022年熊市中下降了大约50%，所以可能还有进一步的变化。

That sort of equivalent cohort dropped about 50% in the 2022 bear market, so there could still be some some movement here.

不过我们基本上已经达到了我预期的水平。

But we've kind of landed at where I I expected us to land.

所以，我们一直在看很多这些高层次的指标、周期指标，现在能把这些点都验证一下。

So it's another we've been looking at a lot of these high level metrics, cycle metrics, and able to kind of check some of these boxes.

我觉得，你知道，在过去的几集里，你一直在问，如果周期今天就结束，这些数据，比如币的换手率，这些高层次的指标，你会不会觉得就这样了？

I think, you know, over the last few episodes, you've you've been asking, you know, if the cycle were to end today, does this does this data, the sort of turnover of the coins, a lot of these high level metrics, would you be comfortable with that's it?

你知道，现在这些都已经应验了。

You know, we've it's played out.

我觉得，这又是一个我们可以打勾确认的例子，答案是肯定的。

And I think, you know, this is another one where we can check the box and say, yes.

我们已经深深陷入这个熊市了。

We're deep we're deep into this bear market.

它应该会在某个时候接近尾声。

It should be coming to a close at some point.

但我还是坚持这个想法，就是宏观环境看起来不太好。

And I still kinda just remain anchored to this idea of, like, the macro setup isn't looking great.

我们可以再深入聊聊，我在这方面追踪的一些东西。

We can get more into that, some of the stuff that I'm tracking there.

但链上数据和市场结构的修复还在继续。

But the on chain data and the the sort of healing of the market structure continues.

这确实是个好现象，等流动性条件最终好转的时候会很有帮助。

And and that's really, like that's a good thing for when liquidity conditions ultimately turn.

迈克，我觉得这有点像是你应得的胜利时刻。除了去年十月预测的六万五千美元价格并跌破它之外，这可能是你最重要的预测，也是你第二重要的预测，而且你呼吁这个已经有一段时间了。

This is a little bit of a victory lap, I feel like, that is well deserved, Mike, because be beyond the 65 k price call in October and going under that, I think this was probably your most important prediction, your second most important prediction, and you've been calling for this for a while.

这进一步验证了心理计量学和链上数据，以及你探索的这些基本面，它们确实在很大程度上指导了你的投资论点，现在看起来都在起作用。

And this is further validation that psychometrics and the on chain data, the fundamentals that that you explore and really guides a lot of your investment thesis are are kinda working out.

所以恭喜你，那个预测得到了验证，尽管是偏空的方向，但关注TDR的人希望已经利用那些低价获利了，可能还有更多机会。

So congrats that that box was was checked even though it's towards the bearish side, but people following the TDR hopefully capitalized on those low prices, maybe with more to come.

我们来谈谈那个感觉像是一堵买墙的东西，你在今天的报告里提到了它。

Let's talk about what feels to be a bit of a buy wall, and you call it out in today's report.

你说你在关注六万到六万五千美元这个区间。

So you said you're watching the 60 to 65 k zone.

在录制的时候，我们位于两百周均线上方。

We are above the two hundred week moving average at the time of recording.

我觉得我们现在在65,000附近徘徊，所以感觉还行。

I think we're hovering at 65 k, so feeling okay.

而且比特币在60,000到65,000之间似乎有一些支撑。

And there has seemed to be some strength between 60 and call it 65 k on Bitcoin.

我想问题是，我们会不会在这个位置耗尽动力？

And I guess the question is, are we going to run out of gas on that?

这是你的观点吗？

Is that is that your thesis?

还是说这个买盘墙能继续吸收供应，甚至推得更高？

Or or can this buy wall continue to mop up supply and even even go higher?

对。

Yeah.

所以我觉得，刚才我们谈到的另一边，就是所谓的聪明钱、更强的持有者进场，在56,000到66,000这个区间买入供应，我们可以确认这一点，并且我们知道市场结构正在修复，变得越来越强。

So I think sort of the the other side of what we just talked about with the sort of smart money, stronger hands coming in, buying up supply in that 56 to 66 k cohort, that we can check that box and we know market structure is healing and and getting stronger.

既然我们已经确认了这一点，我现在开始关注的是订单簿，看看我们到底消耗了多少买盘活动。

The sort of where my mind starts to go now that we've kind of checked that box is kind of looking into the order books a little bit and seeing how much, you know, buying activity have we exhausted.

你知道吗？

You know?

我觉得如果你回到几个月前，你会看到很多买家已经进入了那个12.5%的区间，但他们现在已经从订单簿上撤出了。

I think if you went back a few months ago, you would have been able to see that there were that a lot of those buyers that have moved into that 12.5% have come out of the order have left the order book.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们一直在那里吸收那些在高位卖出的人的供应，而且看起来那里仍然有支撑。

So they're they've been down there mopping up supply from people that are selling at those higher levels, and there seems to still still be support there.

我想说，如果我们跌到大约62,000左右，然后我们突破了那个位置。

I would say if we go to, like, 62 or so, that's where and and we break through that.

那你就可能会看到更多的疲软，甚至可能出现一个真空区。

That's where you potentially could see some more weakness and potentially an air pocket there.

但这就是市场的运作方式，我们基本上是在消耗强手的能量，我觉得这没问题。

But that's that's kind of how this works is, like, you're kind of we're sort of, like, depleting the strong hands now, and I think that that's fine.

而且在这个价位上，有很多人想买比特币。

And there's there's plenty of people that wanna buy Bitcoin at at these levels.

问题其实就在于，我们会不会再面临一次风险抛售，比如流动性收紧，然后有更多人想卖？

And the the the question is just really, do we is there another risk off move that, you know, where liquidity conditions tighten up and there's more people that wanna sell?

那个买盘墙会不会在某个时候再次被压垮？

Does that that will buy wall get overwhelmed again at some point?

我觉得这就是我们现在做风险管理时考虑的重点，就是那里有没有足够的买盘活动？

I think that's kind of the the the sort of how we're thinking about risk management management right now is is there enough buying activity there?

宏观面会不会保持稳定？

Is macro gonna stay in place?

还有可能周期低点已经出现了，我们能不能就这样平稳过渡，而不用再经历一次20%左右的大回调？

And is it possible that the the cycle lows are actually in and we can kind of sort of, like, shift out of this without another big, you know, 20% correction or so?

所以这是值得关注的一点。

So something to to pay attention to.

既然我们已经触及了上次周期顶部那个买家最多的群体，我的注意力现在主要放在那里。

That's kinda where my attention is moving now that we've hit that that that that cohort with the most most buyers there from the from the prior cycle top.

那么你的基本预期，确认一下，是不是这个买盘墙会耗尽动力？

And your base case then, just to confirm, is that this buy wall does run out of gas?

我现在倾向于这个判断，因为宏观环境就是这样。

That's where I'm leaning right now because of the macro setup.

我还是觉得我们之前讨论的那些，比如收益率、美联储政策，还有美联储让长期利率上行这些，都还在起作用。

I still think that everything that we've been talking about with with yields and fed policy and sort of the fed letting the the long end move up.

我还是认为这些都是风险，而且风险不小。

I still think that's all in play, and I still think that's that's a big risk.

说到AI交易，我觉得我们已经看到了AI交易最疯狂的投机阶段。

When I when I think about the AI trade, I still think that we have seen peak speculation from from the AI trade.

我看的很多图表，比如那些高飞股、存储芯片股，还有一些能源股，它们的走势让我想起比特币熊市早期，那时候已经跌破了一些关键技术位。

A lot of the charts that I look at from the sort of kind of, like, just the the high flyer stuff, the memory stocks, some of the energy stuff, those charts remind me of, like, the early sort of part of the Bitcoin bear market where you've sort of broken some key technical levels.

图表看起来已经破位了。

The chart looks sort of broken.

已经经历了一波急跌，现在正在反弹。

It's had a sharp sell off, and now it's kind of doing the rebound.

我们看看这波反弹能不能撑住。

And we'll see if that rebound holds.

对吧？

Right?

这大概就是关键问题所在。

That that's kind of the the key question.

市场的信心是不是在某种程度上已经被打破了？

Has the spirit of the the market been broken in some way?

市场结构已经坏了。

The market structure's broken.

现在的情况和之前加密货币市场很像，很多人是在市场快结束的时候进来的，在高位有大量新资金涌入。

You have that same sort of market structure that we had in crypto where people came in sort of towards the end of the market, and you have lots of new money, you know, at the elevated levels.

你知道，这些可能是一些想赶紧撤的热钱，那会不会对市场结构产生类似比特币那种影响呢？

You know, it's it may not be it may be sort of, like, hot money that wants to get out, and does that impact the the market structure similar to what we've been talking about with with Bitcoin?

这就是我的疑问。

That's kind of my question.

今天早上财政部那边确实有个有意思的新情况。

We did have an interesting development come out of the Treasury this morning.

不知道你看到没有，刚有个消息说，他们实际上要把长期国债的购回规模翻倍。

I don't know if you saw this, but there was just an announcement that they are actually going to double the size of buybacks on the long end of the yield curve.

这个消息大概一个小时前刚出来。

So this is this just drive this, and that it just came out, like, an hour ago.

所以我还在消化，也在研究这到底意味着什么。

So I'm still sort of starting to process, you know, and looking into what this means.

但对我来说，我初步的反应是，我们上周在讨论量化宽松的轻量版，还有外汇市场的情况，以及试图填补债券市场波动可能带来的漏洞。

But to me, my I guess my initial reaction to that is that it's we were talking about QE Light last week and and what's happening in FX and trying to plug holes in potential, you know, bond market volatility.

这是财政部的又一个动作，说明他们担心长期利率上升。

This is another move by the Treasury that tells me they're concerned about, you know, rising long end.

如果他们做更多的购回，或者把长期国债的购回规模翻倍，那我们就更接近收益率曲线控制了。

And if they're doing more buybacks or they're doubling their buybacks on the long end of the curve, you know, we're getting closer to yield curve control.

对吧？

Right?

我们还没到收益率曲线控制，但越来越近了。

We're we're not we're not at yield yield curve control, but we're getting closer.

那这是不是意味着他们担心长期利率会无序上涨，也许这只是为了缓和一下？

And does this mean that they are concerned about a disorderly, you know, rise of the long end and maybe this just tempers it?

他们能接受利率上涨吗？

And are they okay with it rising up?

还是说他们其实想压制它？

Or do they actually want to suppress it?

对吧？

Right?

我觉得我得先把这个想清楚。

That's I think I have to kinda, you know, clear that in my head.

这是不是意味着他们真的要开始压制利率了？

Is this a does this mean that they're actually gonna start suppressing it?

如果是这样的话，那就很有意思了，这可能意味着低点已经出现了，而且我们看到比特币有点走强。

If that's the case, that's interesting, and that starts to point to maybe the lows are in, and we're seeing a little bit of strength from Bitcoin.

所以这周实时发生了一个有趣的进展。

So an interesting development kind of in real time here this week.

对。

Yeah.

这确实是个很有意思的进展。

That is a fascinating development.

而且你在宏观部分最后提到，尽管上周通胀数据还不错，但三十年国债收益率基本上没怎么动。

And you pointed out near the end in the macro section that thirty year yields is basically untouched even though we had some pretty positive in like, inflation numbers last week.

但没往上涨，还是处在什么水平？

But untouched to the upside, still at what?

二十年高点？

Twenty year highs?

还是二十年高点。

Still at twenty year highs.

确实。

It did.

所以今天早上数据出来的时候，我一直在看，结果它跌了，或者说，其实我觉得是有人在买，因为收益率下降了。

So when that came out this morning, I was watching it and it sold off Or or or it actually I guess people were buying because the yield came down.

所以，财政部发布了那个公告。

So that so that was like so the treasury made that announcement.

看起来人们真的进场买债券了，因为他们现在开始觉得放心了，觉得好吧。

It looks like people came in and actually bought bonds because now they're getting sort of comfortable that, okay.

如果他们打算阻止收益率曲线上升，那我的风险回报比实际上变得更好了，因为你知道，如果收益率下降，债券价格就会上涨。

If if they're gonna prevent the yield curve from going up, my my risk reward actually gets better because, you know, if yields are coming down, bond prices rise.

所以这是我接下来要关注的，就是市场对这条消息的反应如何。

So that's something I'll be watching for is just how how are things reacting to this news.

股市看起来也表现不错，但很快就反转了，所以……

The stock market seemed to take it pretty well as well, but then it kinda reversed pretty quickly, so

这整个局面有点像货币贬值的那种设定，长期贬值的设定，当然，一旦我们进入由财政部控制收益率曲线的这种模式。

This all is is kind of a debasement type setup, like a long term debasement setup, of course, once we get into the yield curve controlled by Treasury type of route.

对吧？

Right?

这对比特币和加密货币来说是一个非常有利的设定，而且我觉得如果我们能顺利度过这段时期，看起来会非常好，我们再看流动性条件能否保持稳定。

It's a very good setup for for Bitcoin and crypto, and I would say it's a it's a it looks really good if we can kinda get through this this period here, and we and we'll see if liquidity conditions can stay intact.

我觉得真正的收益率曲线控制要等到经济再疲软一些才会出现。

I kind of think, like, the real yield curve control won't come until we get some more weakness.

我真的觉得他们想保住AI这波行情。

I I really think that they wanna keep this AI trade together.

我们接下来会聊聊融资以及它的走向。

We're gonna get into sort of financing and where that's going.

但如果市场发出的信号是，连一次像样的回调都不能接受，那我觉得你就得考虑重新进场了。

But if if we're getting these signals that that it's just not acceptable to have even have a a significant correction, you know, then I think you start to have to get back into the market.

你得跟着这个信号走。

You have to sort of take that signal.

这周早些时候我花了很多时间研究AI的看涨逻辑和AI投资者的分析框架。

I spent a lot of time earlier this week kind of getting into the AI bull case and AI investor investor framework.

框架。

Framework.

然后我也花时间听了其他播客，包括一些普通人群体的讨论和政治类播客。

And And then then I I also also spent some time like listening to other podcasts and kind of the normie type communities and political podcasts too.

确实有两种截然不同的情况在发生，我们可以深入聊聊。

And there's certainly a tale of two cities going on that we can get into.

不过我们先从这个说起。

Let's start with this though.

这件事发生在8月10日。

This happened August 10.

这就是你指出的那个大型信贷机制，你说过，如果仔细看，它有点像DAT Season。

This is the big credit mechanism that you were pointing to that you said, if you squint, kind of reminds you a little bit of DAT Season.

这是华尔街全力通过信贷工具投入AI交易。

This is Wall Street going all in in credit facilities into the AI trade.

所以在8月10日，英伟达宣布与六家大型资产管理公司合作。

So on August 10, Nvidia announced a partnership with six major asset managers.

你们肯定知道这些名字。

You guys will know the names.

当然，阿波罗就是其中之一。

Apollo, of course.

贝莱德，全球最大的资产管理公司。

BlackRock, biggest in the world.

黑石、布鲁克菲尔德、高盛、KKR，这些都是华尔街的资产管理公司。

Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, KKR, this is all Wall Street asset managers.

他们管理着数十万亿美元的资金，目标是调动5000亿美元的第三方资本用于AI基础设施建设。

They manage tens of trillions of dollars, and the goal was to mobilize $500,000,000,000 of third party capital for AI infrastructure.

所以这又是我跟你提到的那个事情。

So this again is what I mentioned to you.

Gavin Barker在All In播客上，还有我这周早些时候听的几个其他播客里都提到了。

Gavin Barker on the All In podcast, some other podcasts I listened to earlier this week.

我有一个AI投资者，把Nvidia这次的动作称为AI的中央银行。看起来他们是在把华尔街的大量信贷集中起来，然后投入到一种杠杆化的头寸中。我们可以说这是一种负责任的方式，Gavin Barker也是这么说的。但这样做是为了继续为AI建设提供资金。AI的看多者会说，这是必要的，因为我们的代币供应不足以满足我们看到的海量需求，以及未来即将到来的需求。

I have an AI investor called Nvidia with this move sort of a central bank for AI, and it seems what they're doing is they're aggregating a lot of credit from Wall Street, pulling that into a leveraged type of position, we could argue in a responsible way, that's what Gavin Barker was saying, but in order to continue to fund the AI build out, which AI bulls will say, it's necessary, we need this because we don't have enough supply in terms of tokens that we can provide to meet the colossal demand that we've seen and the future demand that we see on the horizon.

你能先详细讲讲这笔5000亿美元的交易，以及Nvidia在这里到底在做什么吗？

Can you get into first the details of this $500,000,000,000 deal and what Nvidia is doing here?

因为我大概明白，但不是完全清楚。

Because I I sort of understand it, but not fully.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我的理解是，其实你知道，很多时候这种结构都是华尔街搞出来的。

My understanding is actually, you know, I think a lot of times these types of structures come from Wall Street.

对吧？

Right?

所以华尔街的资产管理公司知道有需求，你知道，从他们的分销渠道，从他们的客户群体那里，对这些产品有需求，然后他们就会去把这些交易撮合起来。

So Wall Street asset managers know that there's demand, you know, from their distribution, from their customer base for these types of products, and then they'll be the ones that sort of put these deals together.

我的理解是，其实是黄仁勋主动去找这些资产管理公司的。

My understanding is is Jensen was the one that actually approached the asset managers on this.

而且我觉得，你知道，为什么英伟达这么关注这件事？

And I think that, you know, why does why is Nvidia so focused on this?

他们为什么要跟华尔街合作，基本上就是为他们的客户创建这些融资工具？

Why are they getting involved with Wall Street and, like, essentially creating, like, these financing vehicles for their customers?

对吧？

Right?

这不是为了英伟达自己。

This is not for Nvidia.

英伟达不会往这里面投钱，也不是为了让他们去市场上做什么而融资。

Nvidia is not putting money into this, and it's not financing for them to go out into the market and do anything.

这其实是为了那些想接触他们产品的人，比如AI云公司，或者任何在AI基础设施领域做事的人，不是每个人都有英伟达其他大客户那样的资产负债表规模。

It's really for people, you know, that are trying to get exposure to their products, you know, AI cloud companies, any anybody who's doing anything in in the infrastructure space in in AI, not everybody has the balance sheet the size of some of Nvidia's other large customers.

所以看起来他们被市场排挤了，或者要花太多功夫才能拿到资金去买GPU。

And so it seems like they're being priced out of the market or there's there's too much work that has to come in to to to them, you know, get the capital to then go out and buy GPUs.

所以我觉得这就是英伟达的动机和动力。

And so I think that's, you know, Nvidia's incentive and their motivation.

然后在资产管理公司那边，我觉得对他们来说，英伟达有点像你说的，成了这一切的中央银行或者背书人，这样当他们去找投资者和资本方筹钱时，可以说，哦，英伟达在管理这个东西，他们会决定这些产品长什么样，而且会为所有相关的事情背书。

And then on the asset manager side, you know, I think for them, Nvidia is sort of like like you said, they they become a central bank of all this or or sort of the backer so that when they go to their investors and their capital base to go raise the money, they can say, oh, Nvidia is the one that's sort of, like, administering this thing, and they're gonna decide, you know you know, what, you know, what these products look like, and they're gonna bless everything around this.

所以当他们去推销这个产品给投资者时，这能增加产品的可信度。

And so it brings credibility to that product when they go sell they go pitch this to their investors.

然后，当然，他们会设立特殊目的载体，把这些资产放进去，创建这些产品，然后围绕这一切收取费用。

And then, of course, they're going to, you know, set up the special purpose vehicles, put these assets into it, create these products, and they'll take fees, you know, around all of that.

所以现在，就像我们之前讨论过的，当这个建设真正开始时，大部分资金来自大型超大规模云服务商的自由现金流。

And so now, you know, like we we talked about before, when we when this build out really started, most of the cash was coming from free cash flow from the large, you know, large hyperscalers.

随着我们深入AI周期和AI热潮，我们看到了债务的使用。

As we got further into sort of the AI cycle and the AI boom, we've seen use of debt.

对吧？

Right?

所以这算是下一个阶段。

So that's sort of the next phase of it.

我们看到谷歌发行股票来获取更多资本，现在我们正进入一个实际上分散资本获取渠道的阶段。

We saw Google issue equity for more capital, and now we're going into this this place where we're actually sort of, like, decentralizing the access to that capital.

有些人把这称为一种新的资产类别，开始说，随着这些新的融资工具，算力开始变得像一种商品。

Some people are talking about this as, like, a new asset class, starting to say that, you know, compute is starting to become sort of like a commodity with some of these these these new financing vehicles.

所以，这确实是一个值得观察的有趣现象。

So it's, you know, it's just an interesting thing to observe.

这看起来有点像周期末期的现象。

It it looks like a sort of late cycle type of thing.

但这也不一定是坏事。

It doesn't have to be, you know, a bad thing.

我觉得这对任何资产类别、任何热门资产来说，都是一个自然的发展过程。

I think this is sort of a natural progression for any asset class, for any hot asset.

我觉得如果你回顾任何一段快速技术创新的时期，我们都会看到类似的情况。

I think if you went back and looked at any period of, like, rapid technological innovation, we've seen this type of stuff.

比如通用电气就有自己的融资部门，这样他们的客户就能参与到他们的业务中来。

I think GE had its own financing arm where they, you know, so that their customers could buy into what they were doing.

所以这并不是什么前所未见的事情。

So this is not something we've never seen.

金融介入其中，其实是很自然的事情。

It's kind of a natural thing that, you know, finance would would come into play here.

对我来说，我只是想弄清楚每个人的动机，资金从哪里来，这到底会怎么运作，以及华尔街要花多长时间才能开始吸引这些资金。

For me, I just wanna understand the incentives of everybody, where the capital's coming, how this is actually gonna work, how long is it gonna take for Wall Street to go out and start to pull some of this capital in.

然后，你知道，这意味着什么呢？

And then, you know, what does this mean?

假设一切按计划进行，华尔街拿到了那5000亿美元。

Let's say it all goes as planned and Wall Street gets the 500,000,000,000.

他们创建了这些工具。

They create these vehicles.

然后英伟达的客户，可能只需要拿出10亿美元现金，而不是50亿美元。

And then Nvidia's customers have, you know, base maybe they only need to come up with billion of of cash instead of 5,000,000,000.

剩下的40亿美元来自华尔街。

And then the other 4,000,000,000 is coming from Wall Street.

这对流入AI领域的资本速度意味着什么？

What does that mean for just sort of, like, the velocity of capital that can go into the AI space?

所以这可能是看涨的，而且我觉得你现在的处境，就是投资者心理和情绪上，大家可能都在做你过去一周做的那种工作，试图弄清楚这到底会怎么发展。

So this can be bullish, and I think you were at a place, you know, with sort of investor psychology and sentiment where people are probably doing a lot of the work that you're you're doing this this past week trying to figure out where this is going.

也许这会给市场带来更多信心，觉得还有上涨空间。

Maybe this gives more confidence into the market that there's still room to run here.

我觉得这是有可能的。

I think I think that's possible.

但我更多是在想，我们到底提前拉动了多少需求？

But I'm kind of just looking at it as, like, how much demand are we really pulling forward?

如果英伟达的客户买不起他们的产品，这真的是个问题吗？

Is it really a problem if, you know, Nvidia's customers can't can't buy their stuff?

市场是不是应该自己消化这个问题，还是我们需要继续给这堆火添柴？

Should the market sort of just work that that out, or do we need to kind of just keep fueling this fire?

如果我们继续添柴，会不会有个临界点，另一边的需求，也就是企业需求，就跟不上了？

And if we keep fueling it, you know, is there some sort of breaking point where the demand on the other side, the enterprise demand just isn't going to keep up?

那时候就会出问题。

And that's when you run into a problem.

我觉得这才是需要关注的重点。

I think that's the thing to keep keep an eye.

关键就是企业需求，也就是支出，能不能维持现在的水平。

It's just is the enterprise demand there is a spending going to to stay where it's at.

如果这种情况能一直持续下去，那什么都能融资，对吧，只要你能保持另一端的市场需求。

If that can be true forever, then you can finance anything, right, as long as as long as you can keep, you know, demand on the other side of it.

所以，这是值得关注的一点。

So something something to keep an eye on.

而且

And

我觉得到了这个阶段，除了我们讨论过的收益率数字之外，这是另一个需要重点关注的大问题。是的。

I think I think at this point, beyond yield beyond yield numbers that we've discussed, this is the the other big massive thing to keep an eye on Yep.

而且也需要有自己的看法。

And to have a a view on.

还有你在这里说的这句话，你又说了一遍，但报告里的原话是：这也表明整个AI建设在继续拉动需求提前释放。

And and your line here, which you you said again, but the line in the report is this is also a signal that the entire AI build out continues to pull demand forward.

为了建设这一切，把需求提前释放。

Pull demand forward in order to build this out.

迈克，我有点这么理解，就像DATs一样，这就像华尔街在说：嘿，我们有很多资本可以让你解锁，只要我们能搞定总需求和信贷安排。

The way I understand this a little bit, Mike, is in similar to kind of DATs, it's just like Wall Street saying, hey, we have a lot of capital that you can unlock if we get kind of the aggregated demand and the credit facility right.

而AI行业在说，我们需要更多的数据中心，我们需要更多的代币，顺便说一句，我这里说的是AI代币。

And the AI industry is saying, we need more data centers, we need more tokens, by the way, and these are AI tokens I'm talking about.

对。

Yep.

而且我们生产的每一个代币，实际上都能以盈利的方式卖出去。

And every token that we produce, we can sell actually at a profit.

所以，这就是所有华尔街大型金融公司通过英伟达在说，好的，我们可以为所有这些建设解锁大约5000亿美元的信贷，只要我们有结构让这5000亿美元能够以GPU作为支持，以抵押品作为支持，基本上以要生产的代币作为支持。

And so this is all of the big Wall Street finance companies through Nvidia saying, okay, well we can unlock about 500,000,000,000 in credit for all of that build out, so long as we have a structure that allows that $500,000,000,000 to be backed with GPUs, backed with collateral, backed with essentially tokens to produce.

这就是他们说的，这实际上不是无抵押贷款或信用。

And that's what they're saying, it's just not it's not a uncollateralized loan effectively or credit.

它是由英伟达提供的所有这些GPU支持的，这当然不仅解锁了超大规模数据中心，还向下游市场解锁了各种其他机会，让AI公司能够继续这种建设。

It's backed by all of these GPUs that Nvidia is providing, and that of course unlocks not just the hyperscalers, but down market all sorts of other opportunities for AI companies to continue this build out.

而这一切都取决于我们未来会看到多少需求。

And it all hinges on how much demand are we going to see in the future.

这就是为什么我听了许多AI看涨的播客，像Gavin Baker，All In那些人，他们就是说，这根本不是问题。

This is why I was listening to a lot of the the AI bull podcast, people like Gavin Baker, the all in guys, and they're just saying like, this is not a concern at all.

这个信贷额度不用担心，因为它完全由实际资产支撑，就是那些在太空里的GPU，而且我们很清楚，整个供应链上卖GPU都是能赚钱的，因为我们亲眼看到了。

This credit facility is not a concern because it's all backed by actual assets, GPUs that are in the space, and by the way we know we can sell GPUs at a profit across the supply chain because we see it.

而且我们也看到未来会有巨大的需求涌进来。

And we see a tremendous amount of future demand coming aboard too.

所以我们还能继续靠卖token，也就是AI token来盈利。

So we'll continue to be able to sell tokens, AI tokens, at a profit.

所以他们基本上就是说，没必要担心这个，因为我们看到的需求已经非常庞大了，而且还会继续庞大下去。

So they're basically saying, don't there's no reason to be concerned about this because the demand that we're seeing is already colossal and it's going to continue to be colossal.

我听了那些播客，听到这种说法，就让我对像SpaceX用Grok 3做什么这类事情感到兴奋。

And I I listen to those podcasts and I hear that story and it gets me bulled up on things like what's SpaceX doing with Grok three?

然后我就会想，我是不是应该在AI市场上多配置一些资金？

And I'm just like, well, should I have more allocated into the AI market?

对。

Yeah.

然后我转到普通频道，比如那些讲世界政治什么的播客，我会听Ezra Klein或者Tucker Carlson的节目，他们现在对AI简直是吓坏了。

Then I turn on my normie channel to like, you know, whatever, what's going on in the world political podcast, I'll listen to Ezra Klein or Tucker Carlson, and they are freaking the f out about AI right now.

对。

Yeah.

对吧？

Okay?

他们的观点是，天哪，ChatGPT 刚出现，你就有无法控制的人工智能了。

Their their perspective is like, oh my god, hugging face just happened with ChatGPT, You have AI you can't control.

塔克·卡尔森还在不停地说，谁在要求人工智能？

Tucker Carlson is is just like continuing to spout who's asking for AI?

就是说，正在形成一股巨大的政治反弹。

Like, there's a massive political backlash that's building.

其实我挺惊讶的，Hugging Face 事件没有引发更广泛的抛售。

I was surprised actually the hugging face incident didn't cause a broader sell off.

也许下次再发生类似事件时就会了，因为投资者会把它和监管反弹联系起来。

Maybe the next time an incident happens there will be because investors will link that to regulatory backlash.

总之，我就是不知道该相信谁了。就连看好人工智能的人也会说，是的，我们承认收益率曲线看起来不太好，信贷市场现在也不热，但这没关系，因为我们所有的代币都在盈利出售。

Anyway, it's just like I don't know who to believe at this And even the AI bulls will say, yeah, like, we acknowledge yield curves don't look so good, credit markets aren't so hot right now, but it doesn't matter because we are selling all of our tokens at a profit.

所以这个建设是靠自由现金流来支撑的。

So the build out is being funded by free cash flow.

我也不太清楚。

And I don't know.

迈克，这让我想起了一点，你还记得2021年牛市的时候，铸造一个NFT的gas费要200美元吗？

It reminds me as well, Mike, a little bit of do you remember during the bull market of twenty twenty one when we had gas fees of, like, you know, $200 to mint an NFT?

我们看着损益表，看着我们卖出的所有区块空间带来的利润，就觉得这超级可持续。

And we're looking at the p and l and the profit of all of the block space we're selling, and we're just like, this is super sustainable.

这会永远持续下去。

This will last forever.

对。

Right.

我们会继续以盈利的方式出售区块空间，因为需求是无穷无尽的。

We'll continue to be able to sell block space at a profit because the demand is insatiable.

然后发生了什么？

And then what happened?

需求就枯竭了。

Demand kind of dried out.

所以对我来说，关键就是未来需求会往哪里走。

So it's to me, this is all like, where does demand go into the future?

这个问题现在有点难以预测，或者说很难找到一个明确的底线。

And that's sort of an unknowable question at this point, or it's it's just hard to get a clean floor on it.

你怎么看这些？

What do you think of all this?

我觉得我和你的思考方式差不多，而且很高兴听到你的观点。

I I think I'm processing it in a in a similar manner as you, and it's it's great to hear your perspective on as well.

是的，我觉得需求显然是最重要的。

And, yeah, I mean, I think the I think the demand is is obviously the the important thing.

而且我看了很多相关的消息，比如我其实打算去看一下。

And I think looking at a lot of the messaging, so, like, going out and and I'm actually planning on watching.

我记得上周CNBC有一个访谈，是Jensen和参与这笔交易的资产管理公司的人一起的。

I think there was a sit down on CNBC last week where with Jensen and and these asset managers that participated in this deal.

所以我想看看那个，了解一下他们传达的信息是什么。

So I wanna watch that and see what is the messaging that's coming out.

我是说，我觉得听他们讲关于抵押品以及这些新融资工具背后支撑的东西，真的很有意思。

I mean, I I find it fascinating hearing the messaging around the collateral and sort of what's backing, you know, these new financing vehicles.

是的。

Yes.

那里有能产生现金流的硬资产之类的。

You you there's there's hard assets there that produce cash flows and things like that.

但当你听到人们说没有风险之类的话时，我的意思是，这和2008年我们创造那些获取房地产收益的新产品时的看法是一样的，当时整个说法就是房价不会下跌。

But when you hear people saying there's no risk and and things like that, I mean, this was the same view that people had when we were creating all these new products to access, you know, the real estate yields back in 2008, and the whole narrative at the time was that real estate prices don't go down.

如果房价不会下跌，那这些产品就是投资级的，没什么好担心的。

And if real estate prices don't go down, then these products are, you know, investment grade, and there's nothing to worry about.

你知道，我觉得这次肯定不一样，但你不能有那种时刻，因为人和市场都不是直线运行的。

You know, I think this is this is different for sure, but you still you can't have that moment where there's, you know, people human beings and markets don't work in straight lines.

而这就是问题所在。

And I that's that's the that's the issue.

所以一旦出点什么问题，大家就会夺门而出，那时候事情就会变得很麻烦。

So if there is some sort of issue, people will run for the exits, and then that's when things get get weird.

而且，我觉得只要他们能把这一切都维持住，理论上应该还是能行的。

And, you know, I think as long as everything they can keep this all, you know, taped together, then, yeah, it probably should it should work in theory.

对吧？

Right?

理论上应该行，但我们都知道，人和市场都不是完全理性的，不会一切都按你预期的那样发展。

It should work in theory, but but we know that humans and markets are not, you know, rational and just like everything works the way you expect it to work.

你觉得这总体上是不是意味着风险在幕后积累？

Do you see this generally as just like risk is building behind the scenes?

跟之前的DATs差不多，对吧？

Almost similar to kind of DATs, right?

DATs是华尔街的一种新信贷机制，实际上利用了新的资产来源和新的资金，所有的杠杆都有抵押品支持。

So DATs were a new credit mechanism from Wall Street effectively tapped into a new, you know, asset source and and and new funds, and all of the the leverage there was collateral backed.

对。

Yeah.

现在它是基于对比特币、以太坊以及所有资产、代币、区块空间等等的需求来作为抵押支持的，但它确实是抵押支持的。

Now it was collateral backed based on demand for Bitcoin and ETH and all the assets and the and the tokens and all the block space and everything else, but it was collateral backed.

而且，我的意思是，你觉得这就是你看到的相似之处吗？

And, I mean, is that where you see kind of the the parallels?

就像是

It's just like

我觉得是的。

I think so.

这确实是我们之前讨论过的那个进程，就是寻找新的方式把资本引入这个资产类别，这和我们在DAT季节看到的那个热门资产类别是一样的。

It's it's really that the progression we talked about in terms of finding new ways to bring capital into the asset class, and that's the same thing that we saw with with DAT Season, a hot asset class.

我们怎么找到新的投资者、新产品、新工具来吸引人们进来？

How can we find new investors, new products, new vehicles to pull people into this?

而且我们知道，你看那些激励措施，比如想想英伟达，如果这事不成功，英伟达会损失什么吗？

And we know, like, the when you look at the incentives so if you think about Nvidia, like, does Nvidia lose anything if this doesn't work out?

对吧？

Right?

他们其实没什么损失。

They don't really lose any.

大概不会。

Probably not.

对吧？

Right?

真正出钱的那些人可能会受伤。

They're the people who were actually funding those deals may get hurt.

那些筹到钱的公司可能会陷入困境，背上坏账。

The companies that raise the capital, they may get into a weird spot where they've got bad debt.

但英伟达真的没什么可失去的。

But Nvidia really has nothing to lose.

那华尔街的资产管理公司呢？如果他们只是从投资者那里收取管理费，他们也没什么损失。

And then to to the Wall Street asset managers really have anything to lose if they're just clipping fees from their investors on these products.

所以，仔细想想，市场的激励机制和资本流动，这一切发生是很自然的。

So, like, when you think about it, the incentives of markets and pulling capital, like like, it's natural that this is playing out.

但是所有的激励措施都在哪里呢？

But where are all the incentives?

如果事情不顺利，谁会受损？

Who loses when it doesn't work out?

那些推动这件事加速的人，他们的动机又是什么？

And what are the incentives of the people that are pushing for pushing the gas on this?

这肯定会发生的。

It's gonna happen.

在Ski那里，这事可能会过度发展，因为那些人被激励着把它推到极限。

It's probably gonna go over at Ski's because those people are incentivized to just push it as far as it'll go.

所以，你知道，这是我有时会思考的一点。

So that's, you know, something I I try to think about a little bit.

我真的很纠结，几乎和DAT Season时一样，因为DAT Season时，就像，哦，华尔街来了，带着大量的资本和现金，而且，你知道，Tom Lee在买所有ETH的5%，Michael Saylor继续买，那当然是看涨的。

I'm genuinely torn here almost as I was with DAT Season because with DAT Season, it was just like, oh, Wall Street's here, and they're coming with hoards of capital and cash, and, you know, Tom Lee is buying 5% of all ETH, and Michael Saylor continues to buy, and that's bullish, of course.

而且，从另一个角度看，这也是看跌的，因为我们在资产类别中的信贷方面有点太晚周期了，最终需求无法支撑它。

And also, it was bearish from the perspective of we were getting a little too late cycle with respect to the credit in our asset class, and the demand ultimately could not support it.