比特币低点真的已经到来吗？

欢迎收看这份报告。

Welcome to the report.

今天是2026年7月8日，这是今天的报告标题。

It is 07/08/2026, the title of today's report.

叙事又变了，我觉得迈克在谈可能已经触底的那段低谷期。

The narrative is shifting again, and I think Mike is talking about a narrative of the lows maybe they're in.

比特币在周日收盘时突破了其200周移动平均线。

Bitcoin closed above its two hundred week moving average that was on Sunday.

当时价格比我们上周提到的低点高出10%。

It was trading 10% up from the lows that we talked about last week.

一旦这种情况发生，情绪就会迅速从‘天啊，全完了’转变为‘就这？就这么完了？’

And so whenever that happens, of course, the sentiment quickly shifts from, oh my god, it's all over to, was that it, guys?

低点真的到了吗？

Was that the low?

也许低点已经过去了。

Maybe the low was in.

那到底是哪一种呢？

So which is it?

今天我们就来聊聊这个。

We're gonna talk about that today.

我们是该继续回避这种情绪，还是真的该重新进场了？

Do we fade this sentiment again or is it indeed time to buy back in?

迈克的很多指标其实已经出现了。

Many of Mike's indicators have actually already hit.

上周我们提到过，但有一个还没出现，就是今年我们在TDR里反复讨论的币种轮动模式，迈克，你认为这个模式是我们确认市场见底最可靠的指标之一，对吧？

We talked about that last week but there's one that hasn't that is this coin rotation paradigm that we've been talking about so much this year on the TDR, and you have some reasons to believe, Mike, that that's one of the best predictors we actually have for confirming the bottom.

今天我们就要谈这个，可能还会聊到萨莱尔、克拉里蒂法案，以及山寨币市场有没有起色，比如Zcash，这些意味着什么，最后别走开，因为TDR马上要推出一个新东西。

So we're gonna talk about that, we're gonna talk maybe some Saylor, maybe some Clarity Act, maybe a bit of life in the altcoin markets, Zcash, what all that means, and then stick around to the end guys because something new is coming to the TDR.

作为TDR高级会员，我对这个新内容非常期待。

And as a TDR Pro member, I'm very excited about this.

这是第一次，我们能真正看到这个策略的表现，不只是今年，也不只是去年，而是跨越了好几年。

This is the first ever performance report where we get to see how this strategy has actually performed, not just this year, not just last year, but across multiple years.

所以，迈克，我想听听你的看法。

So, Mike, I wanna pick your brain about that.

不过咱们还是先说重点吧。

So but let's get to the the main subject.

我知道市场刚开盘就有点动静。

I know markets we just popped this open.

现在市场稍微跌了点。

Markets are trading down a little bit.

比特币好像跌破六万二了，你说是受伊朗消息影响，这事儿现在正闹着呢。

I think now Bitcoin is down below 62 k, and you're telling me this is on some Iran news, so we got that floating in here.

但之前比特币可是站上了200周均线，从低点涨了10%。

But but previously, Bitcoin had been up above the two hundred week moving average, 10% up from the lows.

以太坊过去七天也涨了9%。

Eth was 9% up in the last seven days.

有些山寨币表现还挺抢眼。

Got some altcoin outperforming.

这周早些时候，还有周日，你看到过哪些比较明显的活跃迹象？

What what were the most significant signs of life that you were seeing, let's say, earlier this week and then on Sunday?

说实话，整体市场现在非常平静。

So, yeah, it's you know, I would say it's it's broadly very quiet out there.

七月向来都是比较冷清的月份。

July tends to be a very quiet month.

大家都出去放松了，接触一下大自然。

People are out there touching grass.

希望大家都过了个愉快的独立日，好好休息了一下。

Hope hopefully, everybody had a nice fourth and a little break there.

每年这个时候，加上节假日期间，加密市场通常都是最安静的，现在的情况也确实如此。

And, you know, this time of the year and also, like, around the holidays tends to be, like, the quietest parts for the crypto markets, and I think that is true right now.

但与此同时，有个挺有意思的现象：在加密圈内部，严格来说是圈内人自己在推动，而不是外部资金涌入，我们看到一些底层项目开始有点起色了。

What's been kind of interesting at the same time is, like, within pockets of crypto, and I would say this is, like, strictly related to crypto natives and not really, like, outside money coming in, is we've seen, like, a little bit of a revival within the trenches.

我们有ANSEM，还有那个Black Bull币，我不确定他是推出了还是只是采用了。

We had the ANSEM, the Black Bull coin that I don't think he launched it or he adopted it.

这可是个模因币啊，你们要是还没关注的话。

This is a meme coin, guys, if you haven't been tracking it.

我们确实看到了模因币的动静。

Meme coin life we saw, actually.

模因币的活跃主要在Solana上冒头了，围绕Solana的叙事也在升温，特别是现实资产上链这块。

This is meme coin life, you know, emerging a little bit on Solana, a little bit of a narrative coming around Solana, real world assets on Solana.

所以现在有那么几个小角落，有点希望和投机的苗头，类似这样的情况。

So there's, like, a few little pockets of, I would say, like, sort of hope and speculation, things like that.

作为投资者，我看着这些，觉得它们其实印证了我们之前的一些判断——模因币就是社交型加密货币，而且根本停不下来。

For me, as an investor, I'm kinda looking at this and, you know, it kind of, you know, helps align to some of the things we've been projecting out, you know, this idea of meme coins as, like, kind of the social crypto, and it's really not not gonna go anywhere.

我觉得，这方面已经开始出现一些积极的迹象了。

And I think we we have more evidence of, you know, kind of some green shoots emerging in that in that area.

但与此同时，从更大的层面看，像比特币这样的主流一层资产，目前根本没什么人愿意参与加密货币的投机。

At the same time, you know, I think when I look broadly at sort of the the larger l one assets, Bitcoin, very little demand out there to, like, speculate, I would say, in crypto right now broadly.

我们总绕不开这些市场结构数据，这周会更详细地聊一聊。

And, you know, we keep coming back to this market structure data, and we're gonna get into that in more detail this week.

但我一直回头关注它，是因为它对我来说是个很强的信号——能把我从加密推特上感受到的社会情绪，和链上实际发生的事情联系起来。

But I think the reason I keep coming back to it and and why I think it's such a strong indicator is for me, it really helps me pair basically the social sentiment and what I'm seeing on crypto Twitter and these types of things with what actually starts to happen on chain.

我们都隐约能感觉到市场这种起起落落。

Like, we all sort of sense, like, these ebbs and flows in the markets.

当你能把这些情绪和真实的链上数据对应起来，就能清楚看到叙事是怎么反映在市场行为中的。

When you can actually pair that with real on chain data, you can actually see how it gets reflected, how the narratives line up with sort of, you know, behavior in the market.

所以我想聊聊这方面的一些内容。

So I wanna kinda get into some of that.

我的看法是，比特币在涨到8万2千美元左右后，确实经历了一波明显的回调。

And and, yeah, you know, my my view is that, like, okay, Bitcoin really kinda had a pretty pretty nasty sort of reversal after getting up to 82 k or so.

卖方可能有点疲软了，或者我们即将看到一波回撤。

Sellers may be getting a little exhausted or we may see a retracement move.

之前伊朗那边出了些消息，看起来停火协议可能要崩了，封锁措施说不定又要回来。

We had some news with with Iran, and it looks like maybe the ceasefire is is falling apart, and maybe these blockades are coming back.

所以我觉得市场现在可能正在对这些消息做出反向反应。

So I think the markets are maybe reversing a little bit of that now.

所以这事儿

So it's a

挺复杂的。

lot going on.

这种行情很难操作，因为到了今晚，可能又会反转一次。

That's always hard to trade on because by, you know, this evening, that could reverse yet again.

这事儿谁也说不准。

You never know on that one.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Right.

群体分析是我今天最看重的部分之一，就是你即将做的这种币种轮动分析。

Well, the cohort analysis is one of my favorite pieces of today's, this coin rotation analysis that you're gonna do.

我们一会儿会深入分析，看看Mike到底是在趁涨出货，还是在趁机入场。

We're gonna get to that and more to confirm whether Mike is fading this recent rally or whether he is buying in.

但在那之前，我们得感谢银河公司这位朋友和赞助商。

But before we get there, we've gotta thank our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY.

这一段是说给那些在听TDR的机构投资者听的，我们知道你们一直在听。

Now this one is for the institutional capital listening to the TDR, which we know they do.

银河这个名字，你一定得记住。

GALAXY is the name that you need to know.

他们在两个领域都确立了全球领先地位，不只是数字金融和资产，还包括支撑人工智能的数据中心基础设施。

They've established themselves as a global leader in two areas, not just digital finance and assets, but also data center infrastructure that's powering AI.

这挺特别的，因为他们一边做加密货币，另一边又做人工智能。

It's kinda unique because they have crypto on one side and they have AI on the other.

在加密货币这边，他们提供机构级的交易、托管和代币化服务；在人工智能这边，

On the crypto side, it's institutional grade trading, custody, and tokenization on the AI side.

他们运营着一座名为赫利俄斯、功率达16亿瓦的数据中心。

It is data centers, a 1.6 gigawatt data center called their Helios site.

而且还不止这些。

More than that too.

想了解他们的话，去查一下股票代码吧。

If you wanna check them out, go check the ticker.

代码是GLXY。

It's GLXY.

你早就知道了，现在可以去了解更多。

You know it, and you can find out more.

节目笔记里有链接，搜一下GALAXY，看看他们是怎么帮助机构投资、建设和转型的。

The link in the show notes, and just search up GALAXY to find out how they help institutions invest, build, and transform.

赶紧去了解一下，感谢GALAXY的赞助。

So go check them out, thanks to GALAXY for sponsoring.

好了，迈克，如果让你估计一下概率，现在熊市已经持续了九个半月，你觉得上周的低点是不是已经见底了？

Okay, Mike, if I were to just ask you probability, what's your probability right now, nine and a half months into this bear market, that the lows of last week were hit?

或者，我换个问法。

Or actually, let me ask the reverse.

你觉得还有可能继续下跌的概率有多大？

What's your probability that we still go lower?

认为还会再跌，比如跌破五万八千美元的概率？

Probability we still go lower, so lower than 58 k or so.

我觉得大概在65%左右，差不多吧。

I would put that at, like, 65%, somewhere in Wow.

超过五成的概率。

More than more than 50%.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

明白了。

Okay.

那说说你为什么这么想，为什么是65%？

Let's talk about why you think that and why that is 65%.

我们得让你解释一下这些数字的依据，我觉得关键可能就在这里，从群体分析说起，差不多也在这里收尾。

So we're gonna ask you to back up your numbers and I think it starts maybe and almost ends here with the cohort analysis.

你能给我们梳理一下这个故事吗？这些数据背后到底在反映什么？我知道我们在之前的TDR节目里也讨论过类似的情况，但还是麻烦你再帮我们回顾一下，我们现在看到的究竟是什么。

Can you guide us through the story here and what you see in these numbers and maybe talk to us like I know we've seen this before on TDR episodes that we've done, but refresh us as well on what we're looking at here.

对。

Yeah.

接下来的内容可能有点细碎，麻烦你耐心听一下。

Know this is a little bit in the weeds so bear with me here.

我们做这个分组分析，最开始想搞清楚的是：那些在比特币价格处于9万到12.6万美元之间买入的人，到底有多少比例已经把币从他们的链上钱包里转出去了？

You know really what we've been doing here with this cohort analysis is, you know, the first thing I wanna understand is, like, are the the people that bought the top the people that came into Bitcoin, you know, in really basically when it was trading between, let's say, 90 k and up to a 126 k or so, what percentage of those coins have rotated out of those wallets on chain?

当熊市持续拉长的时候，我们最先关注的就是这个问题。

That's kind of the the first thing that we started to look at as the bear market was dragging on.

我们发现，那些在最高点附近买入的人群中，大约有51%的币已经流转出去了。

What we can see is, like, roughly 51% of those coins that that were really at the top buyer cohort.

也就是价格在10.8万到12.6万美元这个区间买入的这批人。

That's the 108 k to the 126 k zone.

其中51%的币已经不再被他们持有。

51% of those have rotated out.

所以大概有一半的人已经割肉离场了，受不了这种波动，干脆放弃了。

So roughly half of those folks have coughed up their coins, got frustrated, couldn't deal with the volatility.

他们已经走了。

They're out.

再往下看下一组人群，也就是在9.2万到10.8万之间入场的这批人，他们也是在市场高点进来的。

When we go to the next sort of cohort below them, the ninety two to one zero eight k k cohort, which is also, you know, came in sort of at the top of the market.

到现在为止，当时在这个价位买入的币，只有大约17%被卖出了。

Those coins are only down about 17% in terms of the amount of coins that were bought at that level to where we're at today.

这说明我感觉，市场可能还得再跌一段。

So that tells me, you know, we probably have some more to go.

如果我们对比2022年熊市时的那一轮，当时的价格区间是4.7万到5.6万。

If we look at the equivalent cohort from the twenty twenty two bear market, that was, like, 47 to 56 k.

等到那轮周期结束时，这批人也卖掉了差不多一半的持仓。

When we finished the cycle, they had coughed up 50% of their coins in the in the last market.

所以我们现在这个阶段，按以往的经验来看，应该还会有更多人扛不住而离场。

So we're we're at a level where you would expect some more as time goes on.

我们之前聊过时间型抛售。

We talked about time based capitulation.

随着时间推移，我们预计这部分持有者会陆续出手他们的币。

As more time goes on, we expect some of those holders to to cough up their coins.

我眼下特别想分析的是，2022年熊市时整个过程是怎么发展的。

The other thing that I'm really trying to to assess here is to actually, like, pay attention to how this all played out in the 2022 bear market.

我正在试着把2022年那些对应的早期持仓群体找出来，然后对照当前周期的走势，看看现在到了什么阶段。

And we can sort of line up what I'm doing here is trying to line up what I think the equivalent older cohorts were in 2022 and then get to where we think things are things are shaping up in the in the current cycle.

从这里可以看到，你应该是有2022年的数据吧。

And what we can see here, you've got you I believe you got the 2022.

对。

Yeah.

所以看2022年的情况，当时距离熊市开始大约273天，也就是2022年8月8日。

So so looking at 2022 here, what we can see is, like, about where where we're lining this up exactly two hundred and seventy three days into the bear market for for and that was 08/08/2022.

那时候，总供应量中约有5%来自上一轮牛市的高点持仓群体。

And 5% of the supply was in sort of the prior cycle top cohort at at that time.

我们可以看到，上面这些群体——2021到2.5万、2.5万到2.9万、2.9万到3.4万——规模都在扩大。

And what we can see is that the cohorts above it, so '21 to twenty five k, '25 to twenty nine k, '29 to '34, all of these cohorts were growing in size.

对吧？

Right?

如果你看右边，会发现这些群体在熊市进入大约九个月时，数量都在上升。

If you look at the right hand side, you can see that all of those cohorts were were up, you know, roughly nine months into the bear market.

这说明当时很多投资者在2022年就挺早就愿意抄底了。

So what that is telling me is, like, all a lot of these investors were happy to buy these dips a little bit early back in in 2022.

所以，我们姑且说是2.5万到4万这个区间里的群体，数量都在增加。

So all of these cohorts in the, let's call it, 25 to 40 k range were were rising.

有人开始回到市场，逢低买入。

People are coming back into the market buying up the dips.

如果我们再往下看，现在是熊市第九个月。

If we kinda go down so now so that's nine months in.

再对比一下，等市场触底后整个周期结束时的情况，你会发现，那些之前一直在接盘的群体，比如3万到4万这个区间，到了周期末期反而都缩水了。

Now if we compare what that looks like to, you know, the full cycle after we had hit the lows, what you'll find is that all of those cohorts that were picking up the coins, you know, call it 30 to 40 k or so, all of those cohorts dropped compared when you look at the end of the cycle.

那这些币都去哪儿了？

And where did all the coins go to?

都集中到上一轮牛市高点的那个价格区间了。

They went into that zone right at the prior cycle top.

九个月进入熊市时，价格在1万7800到2万1000之间的币只占总供应量的5%。

So we went from 5% of the supply in that 17.8 to 21 k zone nine months into the bear market.

等价格跌到最低点时，这个比例就飙升到了将近13%。

That jumped to almost 13% once we got to the low.

这说明，大部分币的重新分布其实发生在熊市最后的那个季度。

So, basically, what this is telling me is, like, most of the reshuffling of coins actually happened, like, in the final quarter of the bear market.

我觉得原因有几个，比如时间带来的绝望情绪，市场的自然波动，还有很多人撑不住了，感到沮丧。

I think there's a number of reasons for this, the the time based capitulation elements of this, just the ebb and flows of the market, people giving up, getting frustrated.

有些人在周期早期抄底，后来可能也熬不住了，意识到自己对熊市能有多深判断错了。

And I think in some cases, people that were buying dips earlier in the cycle maybe, you know, getting frustrated, realizing, you know, they were wrong about how deep the bear market might get.

他们卖了，然后又想在更低的位置买回来。

They sell, then they try to buy back, you know, at the lower levels.

所以我觉得，仔细分析这些数据，让我更清楚地看到了熊市运行的真正模式。

So I think that the the really going through this data helps me kinda visualize, like, really what's happening, like, in terms of the way that these bear markets play out.

而到目前为止，当前这场熊市的走势，跟之前非常相似。

And I think so far in the current bear bear market, it's it's roughly following a very similar track.

如果我们再回头看那个图表，就能发现，那些高于前一轮高点区域的持仓群体，已经吸纳了大量币种。

So if we go back up to to that visual, we can see that the cohorts above this prior cycle top zone have picked up a lot of coins.

对吧？

Right?

7.8万到9.2万这个区间，持仓比例已经上升了9.3%。

So the 78 to 92 k zone is up, you know, 9.3%.

6.6万到7.8万这个区间也涨了6%，而前一轮高点所在的5.6万到6.6万区间，现在也开始慢慢吸筹了。

The 66 to 78 k cohort is up 6%, and we've just started to see the prior cycle top zone, the 56 to 66 k zone pick start to pick up pick up some coin.

事情已经开始发生了。

So it's starting to happen.

我觉得，这里头还会有更多的资金在不同区间之间来回调动。

I just think that there's a lot more reshuffling that that could play out here.

随着市场持续走弱，我越来越确信，这很可能是最有可能的发展路径，也正说明了为什么概率更倾向于出现更低的低点。

And as we see more weakness, it's starting to give me more conviction that this is probably the the most likely path, and this is kinda how you get to, like, okay, the probabilities are pointing towards maybe a lower low.

我就是基于这些，才估计有大约65%的可能性。

That's kinda how I'm getting to that 65% or so.

明白了。

Okay.

我们来再理一理这个情况，迈克。

So let's try to make sense of this a a bit more here, Mike.

你说你对最近这次反弹持怀疑态度，觉得比特币的底部还没到底，是因为你没看到以往熊市末期该有的币种轮动。

So you you're saying the thing that you distrust about this recent rally and the reason you're thinking the lows for Bitcoin may not be in is because you haven't seen the coin rotation you'd expect to see during the conclusion of previous bear markets.

这种轮动根本没出现。

You're not seeing it.

我们已经确认了其他好几个指标，上周也聊过。

We've confirmed a number of other indicators, we talked about them last week.

但最明显、最没法忽视的一点，就是这种币种轮动压根没影儿。

But the main thing that's just like you can't ignore is you're not seeing this coin rotation.

但我还想再深入探讨一下，好好检验一下这个观点。

But I wanna, you know, push on this a little bit and pressure test this.

你是在拿现在的币种轮动和2022年做对比。

You're comparing the coin rotation to 2022.

我知道你手头有2018年的其他图表，但这份报告里我们聚焦的是2022年的数据。

I know you have some other charts from from 2018, but in today's report, we're looking at the 2022 numbers.

对。

Yep.

2022年那次，我们经历了一次大规模的恐慌性抛售。

2022, we had this big capitulation event.

上周我们聊过，就是FTX崩盘，那对市场是个巨大冲击。

We talked about it last week, which was FTX, and that was a shock to the system.

当时很多刚进场的比特币买家，还有你一直提到的那批高位入场的人，真的以为这次彻底完了。

Like, people genuinely who were first time Bitcoin buyers during that cycle and the top buyers, that top cohort that you've been talking about so much, they genuinely thought it was over.

一个价值上百亿美元的加密货币交易所倒闭，这种事多久才碰上一次？

Like how often does a, what, a $10,000,000,000 crypto exchange go bankrupt?

这种事以前从没发生过。

That has never happened.

但上一个周期里它确实发生了。

And it happened that cycle.

所以当时出现了一次非常剧烈的恐慌性抛售，可以说是一次重大冲击，但这次看起来不太可能重演。

And so there was this really difficult hard capitulation type of event, a shock let's say, and it's not looking like that's going to be repeated this time.

也许我们该看看2018年的数据，而不是2022年的。

Maybe what we should do is take a look at the 2018 numbers rather than 2022.

我的意思是，这次在某些方面可能真的不一样，也许正是这个原因，让这批新入场的顶级买家坚持不卖——因为他们没看到像过去周期里那样的系统性崩溃和冲击。

What I'm saying is maybe this time in some ways is different and maybe that's what explains these young buyers, this kind of like first top buyer cohort, maybe that's why they're holding on because they haven't, they're not seeing that type of capitulation event and shock to the system that we've seen in in previous cycles.

所以这里确实存在一些差异，可能意味着模式不会像2022年那样完全重复。

So there are some differences here that maybe mean the pattern is not going to repeat exactly as 2022.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这么说很合理。

I think that's fair.

我觉得，有人反对这种看法，认为还会再创新低，这确实是主流观点。

I think that's if the the pushback on this view that, you know, a lower low is coming, I think that's that's the main view.

至于我本人，说实话，我不确定。

Where where I come in on it is, like, I I don't know.

我没法预测会不会出现信贷事件或者其他情况。

I can't predict if we're going to have a credit event or something else.

你知道的。

You know?

我也看不到类似FTX那样的大型交易所崩盘，或者BTR这类平台出事。

I don't I don't I don't also don't foresee, like, a FTX style unwind of a major exchange or a BTR exchange.

不过，我们都知道，价格已经跌了。

However, you know, we do know that prices are down.

很多杠杆已经被清掉了。

There's a lot of leverage has been wiped out.

说到FTX这件事，我想强调的是，FTX在被曝光前，可能已经资不抵债好几个月了。

And, like, the thing that I like to come back to on the FTX thing is, like, FTX was probably insolvent for, like, six months before we found out about it.

所以我觉得，现在看市场，很容易就觉得：嘿，我们还没见过这种情况。

And so I think it's easy to kinda look at the market right now and say, well, you know, we we haven't seen this.

我们没看到像BlockFi、Celsius、Terra Luna那样的大规模爆仓，就是2022年那种激进的崩盘，但这不等于没人正处在困境中，说不定哪天就真出事了。

We haven't seen the block buys, the Celsius, the Terra Luna, like some of the just more aggressive unwinds that we had in '22, but it doesn't mean that there isn't somebody out there that that is in pain and that, you know, we could we could have some event like that.

所以我不会断言这种事情绝对不会发生。

So I I I wouldn't write it off that we can't have it.

对我来说，我其实就牢牢抓住这一点：

And for me, like, I sort of just anchored to this.

我不需要知道具体会是什么事件。

I don't need to know what what the event is going to be.

大概总会有什么事情让市场下跌。

Like, there probably will be something that makes the markets go down.

我真正关心的是，简单来说：

And the thing I care about is more it's just like, okay.

人的行为会怎样？

What's the human behavior?

那人们背后会怎么反应呢？

How are people gonna act behind that?

现在的市场结构到底是什么样的？

And what is the sort of structure of the market right now?

如果你想要反驳这个观点，另一个角度可能是：能不能找到某个明确的利好催化剂？

I think the other piece that if you wanted to sort of fade this view would be, like, there if if I could come to some conclusion on a catalyst or, you know, a bullish catalyst in the market.

比如说，Clarity法案顺利通过了。

So maybe that's passage of the Clarity Act that that comes through.

或者是货币政策，比如加息预期的缓解。

Maybe that's, you know, monetary policy or, like, this idea of rate hike rate hikes.

这些因素可能已经被市场消化了。

Maybe that gets priced out of the market.

但我觉得，还得有其他一些利好的东西出现，才能让你真正有信心，毕竟我们已经讨论了这么多数据。

There would have to be, like, some other stuff, I think, that comes in on the bullish side that can give you the conviction because, you know, we've been covering a lot of this data.

没错，我们从宏观层面关注的那些指标，比如处于亏损状态的币种比例，确实和以往周期的走势很相似。

And and, yes, a lot of these metrics that we check on a on a high level, we talked about the percentage of coins that were in loss were, you know, really kind of lining up with prior cycles.

这些迹象看起来都不错。

Those things look pretty good.

但另一方面，比特币的跌幅还没降到我预期的那种水平。

But then, also, you know, we just haven't come down to levels in terms of just the percentage decline for Bitcoin that I kind of expect we'll see.

上一轮周期里，价格跌了大约百分之七十五。

So we went down about 75% in the last cycle.

如果跌到五万美元，那也才跌了百分之六十，这在一轮温和的熊市里算不上深跌。

If we went to 50 k, that would still only be a 60% decline in a in a, you know, a much shallower bear market.

所以我更倾向于重视这些其他因素。

And so I kind of just I'm applying a little more weight to some of these other things.

而且从历史经验看，耐心确实有效，我也想以此为基准。

And, historically, patience is it just does kind of work, and so I wanna kind of anchor anchor to that as well.

所以我们现在还在市场里。

And so, you know, we're in the market.

当然，我们一直在买入，仓位配置也已经调整好了，现金比例偏低，组合的下行风险已经控制得比较小了。

Obviously, we've been buying and and, you know, we're we're allocated, my cash position is in a place where it's tilted where the risk in the portfolio is less to the downside.

对吧？

Right?

当市场处于高位时，我会更倾向于把现金配置转向 downside 风险更高的方向。

When I'm when I'm when we're at the top of the market, I wanna kinda point the cash position more towards, you know, risk is to the downside.

我觉得风险正逐渐转向 upside 一方。

I think the risk is starting to shift more to the upside.

我觉得我们接下来可能还得经历一些波动。

I just think, you know, we we probably have a little more turbulence to navigate here.

我想确保大家能理解这一点。

I wanna make sure people get that take.

对吧？

Right?

人们总喜欢把投资者或者各种观点简单划分为看多或看空两类。

Because there's a tendency for people like to put others, investors, just opinions in general into binaries of you're either bullish or or bearish.

没错。

Yeah.

如果你看一下TDR的投资组合，它其实显示出看涨的倾向。

If you if you look at the TDR portfolio, it points towards being bullish.

说实话，你现在大部分资产都在加密货币上，一直在逢低买入，挺过了整个熊市。

Mean, you are a majority crypto at this point, have been buying these dips and buying this this bear market.

所以有些人可能会离开，可能你在加密货币推特上也见过这种情况，觉得迈克是看空的。

So I think some people walk away, and maybe this happens on crypto Twitter to you, and be like, Mike is bearish.

其实不是，他并不看空。

Well no he's not.

从投资组合的角度来看，他是偏向看涨的。

Is tilted bullish from a portfolio perspective.

他只是觉得市场底部还没到底，主要原因是他观察到了币种轮动，但这一轮还没看到他预期的那种轮动迹象。

He just thinks that the bottom is not quite in, and largely the reason for that is he's looking at coin rotation and hasn't seen what he expects to see for coin rotation this cycle.

你是这么总结的。

This is the way you put it.

数据显示，大量比特币持有者原本并不认为比特币会进入长期熊市。

The data tells us that a large swath of Bitcoin holders did not believe Bitcoin would enter a prolonged bear market.

这说的就是我们刚才提到的那批高位持仓者，尽管过去的情况并非如此。

That would be kind of that top cohort we're talking about, despite what we've seen in the past.

我们认为，如果比特币今年晚些时候再次下探、创出新低，这些投资者可能会失去耐心、丧失信心，最终选择离场——而这正是概率数据所支持的走势。

It's our view that these investors may become impatient, lose faith, give up if Bitcoin has another drawdown, establishing a lower low sometime later this year, which is where the probability supports.

所以你才说有65%的概率。

That's why you're at 65% probability.

明白了。

Okay.

我们来聊聊其他一些正在出现的数据信号。

Let's talk about some other data points that we're seeing here.

一个是ETF和现货市场的交易量。

One is ETF volumes, spot volumes.

实际上，所有这些都跟交易量密切相关。

Actually, all of this is really volume driven.

现在市场上到底有多少交易在进行？

How much trading is happening?

永续合约和未平仓合约。

Perps, open interest.

这说明了什么？

What is that pointing to?

关于ETF，我主要看的是有没有真实需求。

So on the ETFs, I kind of anchor to this as, you know, is there demand?

是机构在买入，还是普通投资者还有兴趣参与比特币？

Is there any demand from institutions or just appetite from average investors to be in BTC?

我们刚才展示的这张图是七日移动平均线。

The chart we shared here is a seven day moving average.

从七日移动平均来看，近两个月净流入一直是零，这是有记录以来最长的一次。

And as we can see, there's been, you know, from the seven day moving average perspective, zero net inflows for almost two months now, so the longest period of of of seeing that.

我现在注意到，资金流出的幅度正在慢慢减小。

And what what I'm starting to see is, like, the outflows are are dwindling down a little bit.

流出的资金正在减少。

So the outflows are coming off.

市场上恐惧情绪减少了，卖方也少了。

There's less fear in the market, less less sellers out there.

我们还没看到买方那边有明显的大规模需求。

We haven't really seen any indication that there's, like, sort of overwhelming demand on the buyer side.

所以现在关注点开始转向了——我们能不能看到需求真正回升的迹象？目前还没看到。

So that's kind of where the focus starting to shift where you know, can we see signs of of demand really not seeing that just yet?

当我看现货交易量时，也是同样的情况。

When when I look at, like, spot volumes, that, again, same idea.

通常来说，现货交易量会在有人积极入场买入比特币时上升，也会在市场剧烈下跌、波动加剧时出现 spikes。

You know, we tend to see spot volumes increase when either there's demand to to come into the market and and buy Bitcoin, and then we tend to see spikes during, you know, turbulence during volatility to the downside as well.

目前，现货交易量就维持在一种心理层面的平稳状态。

Right now, we're just kind of at, like, psycholos in terms of, you know, spot volumes.

这还有另一个原因：我们还没看到链上交易量出现明显激增，部分是因为还没发生大规模的资金轮动。

And this is another and we really haven't seen, like, these major spikes in in on chain trading volumes partly because we haven't seen the the the massive rotation.

我觉得看现货交易量图表的话，上一轮熊市最后那个季度，交易量是直接飙升的。

I think when you look at the spot volume chart, the the volumes just went parabolic during kind of the final quarter of the last bear market.

那时候所有的币都换手了，就像我们之前说的。

That's when all the coins, you know, changed hands as we talked about.

我在找一些迹象。

I'm looking for something.

不一定非得像那段时期那么剧烈，但我希望链上活动能更活跃些，好确认我们已经触底了。

It doesn't have to be as, you know, volatile as that period, but I'm looking for more more activity on chain to kind of confirm that we've hit some of these lows.

再看看未平仓合约这些指标，其实就是想知道有没有人在投机。

And then, you know, looking at just the open interest and things like that, that's just kind of like, is there speculation?

市场上还有没有那种冒险的劲头？

Is there any is there any animal spirits out there?

杠杆是不是已经被清理得差不多了？

Have we kind of, like, wiped out the leverage?

我觉得大部分杠杆确实已经被清掉了。

I think we mostly have taken it out.

看这张图，现在的持仓量和上一轮周期中ARPORT的持仓下降幅度基本一致。

When we look at this chart, we're down pretty much in line with where ARPORT's open interest came down in in the last cycle.

现在这个产品规模大得多，用永续合约的人也多了。

It's obviously a much bigger product now, and there's more people using perps.

所以我们得把这个因素考虑进去，但确实已经从高点回落了。

So we gotta factor that in, but we have we have come off.

所以我觉得，现在关键问题是，需求到底从哪儿来呢？

And so, you know, I think I think right now, it's just, you know, where's the where's the demand gonna come from?

如果需求没来，会不会有什么事情再次引发市场的恐慌，导致币重新洗牌？

And if it doesn't come, is there something that sort of creates this, like, fear in the market again and the reshuffling of coins?

如果我看到这样的信号，我就会更有信心，觉得我们已经触底了，那时候我才会真正持续地看多。

If I start to see that, then I think I'll start to build a much much stronger conviction that that we're we're we've established these cycle lows, and I'll get bullish, you know, for I'll get, you know, bullish on a consistent basis.

完全看多。

Full

还没出现全面看多的情况，迈克。

on bullish.

我们还没看到全面看多，迈克。

We haven't seen full on bullish, Mike,

还没到全面看涨的地步，迈克。

full on bullish, Mike, just yet.

我觉得等我对这些情况更有把握了，这种看涨情绪就会出现。

And I think that will come, you know, once I have more conviction, like, that some of this stuff has played out.

这非常关键。

This is super key.

你需要看到现货交易量回升，而这种情况很可能在比特币价格跌到很低的时候发生。

So you need to see and you want to see spot volumes return, and and that will happen probably at the bottom when Bitcoin price looks pretty low.

把这些点串起来，这和你一直在关注和讲述的币种轮动故事是一致的——也就是新进的买家在向老手抛售。

And to connect these dots, this fits with the coin reshuffling story that you've been looking at and telling which is, of course, the newer cohort, the newer buyers are selling to the veterans.

他们把币卖给了老买家，而老买家正在买入。

They're selling to the older buyers and the older buyers are buying them.

这正是过去几次熊市末期经常发生的情况。

Like that's what happens during the late cycle of these previous bear markets.

你本该在一些交易平台的实际交易量中看到这种现象，这才能证明币种轮动确实在发生，也帮助你确认市场底部。

You'd expect to see that in actual volume in some of these trading venues and that's how you know that the coin shuffling is actually taking place and that helps you confirm the bottom.

所以你刚才说了三点。

So you're saying three things here.

首先得看到币的轮动，其次这种轮动通常发生在熊市后期，大概就是接下来三个月左右，如果历史规律重现，我们应该会看到；而当我们发现某些图表上的交易量开始上升时，就能确认轮动确实发生了。

You need to see the coin shuffling, you need to, that typically that coin shuffling secondly happens late in the bear market, around this time, over the next say three months or so, you'd expect to see it if it plays out previously, and you'll confirm that you've seen it when we see some volume on some of these charts.

说得非常好。

So great takes there.

咱们聊聊眼下其他一些值得关注的事。

Let's talk a little bit about some of the other things in the water right now.

当然。

Sure.

比如策略、清晰法案，还有某些山寨币。

Strategy, the Clarity Act, maybe some alt coins.

这周有个消息，迈克尔·塞拉实际上已经出手卖出了比特币，不是光说说而已，而是真真切切地大笔抛售了。

There was some news coming out of Strategy on the week that Michael Saylor has actually sold Bitcoin, taking into action, not just announced that he might sell it, but actually sold Bitcoin in size.

这笔交易涉及两亿一千六百万美元的比特币。

This is $216,000,000 worth of Bitcoin.

这是一笔相当大的抛售，不过只占MicroStrategy总持币量的不到百分之零点五。

This is a pretty large sale, although it represents less than half a percent of the total MicroStrategy supply.

你之前把Saylor称作企业级玩家，对吧？

You called this you've called Saylor in the enterprise.

对。

Right?

你并不觉得这会引发连锁崩盘，但你说这是资本结构管理不善。

You don't think it's going to cause a cascading unwind, but you've called this a mismanaged capital structure.

这话可不轻啊，Mike。

Those are strong words, Mike.

你能不能说说，你认为Saylor现在到底在做什么？为什么说这是管理不善？

Tell me, what do you think is going on with Saylor right now and why is this mismanaged?

我的意思是，他其实干了件本不该做的事——要是他常看《DeFi报告》，就能跟上周期，该抄底的时候抄底，而不是在低点抛售。

I mean, he's kinda doing what you know, he should be probably subscribing to the DEFI REPORT so he can follow the cycle and and be buying the lows and not be selling the lows.

不过我觉得，这事儿还挺有意思的。

But I think, you know, it's it's it's interesting.

我的意思是，市场对这件事已经不太在意了。

I mean, the market's kind of faded this.

对吧？

Right?

他终于出来宣布了一笔相当大的抛售。

He he finally came out and announced, like, a pretty significant sell.

这占他们持仓还不到一半个百分点，所以从比例上看，并不算大动作。

It's, like, you know, less than less than half a percent of their holdings, so it's not a it's not, like, a significant portion of the holdings.

但金额是两亿一千六百万美元。

It is $216,000,000.

我觉得市场对此其实没太当回事。

And, you know, the market's kinda shook this off a little bit, I think.

可能图表短暂下跌了几个小时吧。

I mean, may maybe the chart went down for a few hours or so.

有意思的是，市场居然就这么轻描淡写地过去了。

Kind of interesting that it just shook it off.

他当初卖出32个比特币并公布这个消息的时候，市场上的恐慌要大得多。

And when we when he sold 32 Bitcoin and initially announced this, you know, it was much there was a lot more fear in the market over it.

我觉得这件事正在慢慢化解，我的看法是，他们现在账上有了25亿美元现金，足够支付这些固定收益产品的股息。

You know, I think this is starting to resolve itself is kind of my my take is they now have 2,500,000,000 of cash on the books to pay dividends on these fixed income products.

看起来这笔钱足以支撑大约十七个半月的股息发放。

Looks like it's about seventeen and a half months or so of of runway to pay those dividends.

所以如果你是长期持有者，现在或许可以稍微安心一点。

So I think, you know, if you're a stretch holder, you can start to get a little more comfortable.

也许我们会看到情况好转。

Maybe we see the stretch.

你知道，它的交易价格现在低于面值100。

You know, it's trading below that 100 par level.

它正在努力回升到那个水平。

It's trying to get back up there.

所以也许我们能看到事情逐渐平息下来。

So maybe we start to see this resolve a little bit.

我觉得他说这是资本结构管理不当，是因为他明显不想卖比特币。

You know, I think the reason I'm saying it's a mismanaged capital structure he's got he he obviously doesn't wanna sell Bitcoin.

他更愿意发行Stretch的股票。

He would rather issue shares of stretch.

他宁愿发MicroStrategy的股票，来支付股息和购买比特币。

He would rather issue shares of of MicroStrategy to to fund both dividend payments and Bitcoin purchases.

但现在的状况是，他已经不能再这样稀释MicroStrategy股东的利益了。

But the MNOW for strategy has just gotten to a place where he can no longer, you know, dilute strategy holders in that way.

不过他卖比特币的时候，还是在稀释股东利益，因为每股对应的比特币数量在下降。

He's still diluting them when he sells Bitcoin because Bitcoin per share drops for for strategy holders.

所以本质上他还是在稀释，只是现在他在两种方式之间选一个伤害小一点的。

So it's just you're still doing it, but he's just sort of picking his poison here in terms of how he's managing this.

我觉得这并不存在什么追加保证金或者类似的重大信用事件。

And, you know, I think I think I don't see, like, this, like, margin call or something like this that's a big credit event.

我只是觉得，市场可能对这件事关注得有点过头了。

I just think it's something that the market's probably paying maybe a little too much attention to.

这可能创造了一些买入机会。

It's creating maybe some buying opportunities.

如果你是MicroStrategy的股东，可能得多留点心，但我总觉得这事迟早会自己解决。

If you're a micro strategy holder, you need to probably be paying attention a little bit more, but I kinda think this is gonna just kinda resolve itself at some point.

万一比特币价格继续下跌，他还得继续卖，情况可能会更糟，你说是吧。

We may you know, maybe we it gets worse if Bitcoin comes down and he still has to sell more.

嗯。

You know?

不过，这大概就是我的看法了。

But that's kinda my my view on this.

作为比特币持有者，我基本上就是旁观者，等着看有没有合适的买入时机。

Like, it's it's it's as a Bitcoin holder, I'm sort of just observing it from the sidelines and looking for buying opportunities.

所以呢，

So this is

在你看来，这问题是MicroStrategy股东的事，跟比特币持有者没关系。

a problem for MSTR holders, not for Bitcoin holders in your mind.

那克拉里提法案呢？

How about the CLARITY Act?

现在Polymarket上的概率显示，今年这事儿大概不会发生了。

So now the weight of probability on polymarket is that's not going to happen this year.

但也不是完全没可能。

It still could.

我觉得成功率大概在40%左右，但今年五月的时候还高达70%到75%呢。

I think the odds are somewhere around 40%, but that's down from, what was it, like 70%, 75% in May of this year.

国会那边时间真的越来越紧了。

And, I mean, time is getting short in congress.

我们真需要这个法案吗？

What like, do we need this?

这会不会就是你之前说的，能给市场重新注入一点牛市情绪的利好催化剂？

Could this be the upside catalyst that you were talking about to inject some some bullishness back into these markets?

你整体怎么看？

What's your overall perspective?

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，这确实挺难的。

You know, it's it's tough.

我觉得，从长远来看，这个行业确实需要这项法案，但现在看来，时间窗口似乎正在慢慢关闭。

I think, you know, we the industry, I think, needs this in the long term, and it feels like the window is sort of closing in a little bit on us here.

但这个窗口之所以在关闭，是因为大家担心众议院在中期选举后会转向民主党。

But it's getting the the and this window is closing because of concerns that the house, you know, is gonna go to the Democrats in in the midterms.

如果这项法案在今年年底前没能通过，那整个进程很可能会因此重置。

And that's gonna that's gonna basically reset this potentially reset this whole process if this bill doesn't get through by the end of the year.

所以我觉得，目前Polymarket上的概率还不到五成。

And so I think, you know, polymarket has it under 50% right now.

这并不意味着这事肯定不会发生，但我认为我们可能得在八月休会前看到一些实质性的进展。

It doesn't mean this is, you know, this is not gonna happen, but I think we need to see some significant progress here probably before the August recess.

所以，接下来的一个月左右，如果这项法案真能推进下去，那还好；但如果到第三季度末还没动静，或者我们明确知道它通不过了，我觉得市场很可能会因此小幅下跌。

So, like, you know, over the next month or so, if this is if this is actually gonna make its way through, does this if it doesn't make its way through and we're in towards the end of q three or we get the, like, clarity from what's happening on the ground that it's not gonna pass, it probably does cause, you know, markets to to drop a little bit, I I would think.

我觉得加密货币其实不需要这个。

I don't think crypto needs it.

你看，加密货币都存在这么久了，你说有多久？

Like, crypto has been here for, you know, what?

比特币都快二十年了，可我们一直都没这个东西。

We're going on two decades now for for Bitcoin, and we, you know, we haven't had this.

所以这并不会让我退出市场，或者类似的情况。

So it's not gonna it's not gonna force me out of the market or anything like that.

我觉得这最多就是个负面催化剂，尤其是在市场低点的时候。

It's just probably a negative catalyst potentially, like, at at the lows is kind of how how I see it.

我确实会关注这件事，但如果没通过，那我们就只能重新调整整个进程了。

So something I'm watching for, but if it doesn't happen, you know, we're just gonna have to reset the process, basically.

对我来说，明确的监管就像一份针对未来根斯勒执政的保险。

Clarity to me represents an insurance policy against a future Gensler administration.

没错。

Right.