宏观担忧？加密货币的牛市逻辑与利率上升

今天的问题是，宏观方面的担忧越来越强烈。

Macro concerns are growing louder the question today.

我们是继续淡化这些担忧，坚持加密货币正处于第五轮牛市的观点，还是应该重新审视一下宏观形势？

Do we keep fading those concerns and hold the stance that crypto is in the fifth bull market, or should we take a second look at macro?

这就是我们今天要讨论的内容。

That's what we're doing today.

我们要重新审视宏观，看看是否还能继续淡化它的影响。

We're taking a second look at Macro to see if we can continue fading it.

今天是2026年9月30日。

It is 09/30/2026.

欢迎收听《DeFi报告》。

Welcome to the DeFi Report.

让我给你一些数据。

Let me give you some stats.

这就是迈克今天报告的开场白。

This is how Mike opens today's report.

从6月30号算起，那是比特币在熊市里触底的时候。

Since June 30, that would be the point at which Bitcoin hit its low during the bear market.

熊市的最低点，十年期国债收益率上升了80个基点。

The bottom of the bear, the ten year has risen 80 bips.

对吧？

Okay?

所以差不多涨了整整一个百分点。

So almost a full percent.

油价涨了29%，但同一段时间里，比特币涨了44%。

Oil is up 29%, and yet over that same period of time, Bitcoin is up 44%.

这表现远超纳斯达克，也比黄金高出42个百分点。

This outperformed both the Nasdaq by a lot and also gold by 42.

而且不只是比特币。

And it's not just Bitcoin.

过去三十天，前50大加密资产里有96%的表现甚至超过了比特币。

96% of all crypto assets in the top 50 crypto assets also outperformed even Bitcoin over the last thirty days.

那这是不是应该让我们更乐观呢？

So should that make us more bullish?

或者像迈克说的，我们是不是在自欺欺人？

Or as Mike put it, are we whistling past the graveyard?

这会不会给我们带来麻烦？

Could this get us into some trouble?

请看到最后，我们会讨论所有这些。

Stick around to the end, we're gonna talk about all of that.

但在最后，迈克会讲解观察名单上的牛市价格目标。

But at the end, Mike is going to go over the bull market price targets on the watch list.

我们已经预告了好几周，我一直很期待，现在终于来了，简直是包装精美的礼物。

We've been teasing this for a number of weeks, I had been looking forward to it and now it is here, is gift wrapped.

今天早上刚刚为TDR Pro会员发布，也许我们会分享其中一些价格目标，名单上有40多种资产。

It has just been delivered for TDR Pro members this morning, Maybe we'll share a few of those price targets from the list over 40 assets there.

迈克，上周你估计早期牛市确认的概率是85%。

Mike, last week you put the odds at 85% that the early bull market was confirmed.

那对你来说已经很高了。

So that's pretty high for you.

这绝对比我听你说过的都要高。

It's definitely higher than I've ever heard you talk.

你告诉我们你在关注一件事，就是看比特币能否在五十周均线上方连续第二周收盘。

And you told us the one thing you were watching, you told us you were watching to see if we could get a second weekly close on Bitcoin above the fifty week moving average.

我们有没有实现第二次收盘？

Did we get that second close?

实现了。

We did.

我们确实实现了第二次周线收盘。

We got the second weekly close.

而且这个收盘价也超过了五月份创下的高点。

It was also above the the the high that we set back in May as well.

所以我们现在算是创了一个更高的高点，或者说已经超过了五月份的那个高点。

So we kind of set, like, a a higher higher high here or or or we've gone past the the the high that we went to in May.

所以，你知道，这就是那个……

So, you know, this is the the...

基本上，我现在纠结的是，我总是会回到查理·芒格常说的那句话。

Basically, what I'm grappling with right now, and I I always come back to kinda what Charlie Munger always says.

你知道，你得比对方更了解他们的论点。

You know, you gotta know the other side's argument better than they do.

所以，我觉得共识观点开始围绕宏观风险形成了。

So, you know, I think the the consensus view is starting to, you know, form around macro risks.

我觉得过去两三个月我们一直在强调的很多风险，甚至在我转向更冒险的模式之前，就是我们现在开始在宏观上看到的一些情况，比如利率上升，还有伊朗战争的持续。

I think a lot of the risks that we've been highlighting over the last, you know, two to three months, even before I kind of flipped into a a more risk on mode, was a lot of the stuff that we're starting to see play out in macro with with higher rates, with the, you know, prolonged war in Iran.

这其实就是这份报告的主题。

And this is really kind of the theme of the report.

当我在考虑宏观方面和那里的风险时，我不断回到的，还是加密货币市场已经发生的事情。

What what I keep coming back to as I go through sort of the macro side of the equation and the and the risk there is I I still keep coming back to what has already played out in the crypto markets.

所以我大致回顾了一下我们在加密货币方面关注的所有重要事情，然后我们重新审视宏观方面的一些风险。

And so I kinda went through, like, a full recap of all the kind of important things that we look at on the crypto side, and then we kinda revisit what what what are some of those risks on the macro side.

所以我觉得这就是报告的主题。

So I think that's kind of the theme of the report.

市场一直……

The the markets have been...

我们看到，几个月前在Robinhood链上发生的早期投机活动，现在已经转向了我所说的优质山寨币。

We've seen sort of this rotation from out of the early speculation that was happening on Robinhood chain a few months ago has drifted into kind of what I would say is, like, quality altcoins.

所以我们看到了很多超额表现。

So we've seen a lot of outperformance.

你在开头提到，前50大币种中大多数都跑赢了比特币，而比特币在那段时间也跑赢了纳斯达克和黄金。

You mentioned in the in the intro there, you know, most of the top 50 coins have been outperforming Bitcoin, and Bitcoin has been outperforming, you know, NASDAQ and gold over that period.

所以市场有点过热了。

So markets are getting, I would say, a little bit frothy.

我们刚刚看到比特币第二次周线收盘站上50周均线。

We just had that second weekly close over the fifty week for Bitcoin.

顺便问一下，50周均线是什么？

And what is the fifty week, by the way?

是76.8。

It's 76.8.

还在往下掉，所以现在是76.8。

It's still dropping, so it's it's 76.8 right now.

但我们收盘还不错。

But we had a healthy close.

是多少？

What was it?

我们的现金是多少？

What was our cash?

收盘稳稳站在83,000以上，所以我们还是远高于五十周均线。

Healthy close over 83 k, so we're still well above the fifty week moving average.

这已经是连续第二周收盘高于那个水平了。

That's two weeks in a row that we've closed above that level.

所以，你知道，可能我们会先回踩一下五十周均线，然后再进行下一步动作，但基本上就是重新调整，看看宏观情况，努力找到那种感觉……

And so, you know, expect maybe we'll see a revisit to that fifty week before we sort of get the next move, but really kinda just resetting, kinda going through macro, and really trying to feel like we have...

你知道，现在正是市场里敢于冒险的好时机。

You know, this is the right time to be risked on in the markets.

我，我就是想说……

I I could just...

比如，跟你合作这么久了，迈克，我可以告诉你……

Like, having worked with you a while now, Mike, I I could tell you...

事情进展得太顺利，你反而开始担心了。

Things are going so well, you're getting worried.

是的。

Yes.

对吧？

Know?

你就会想，嘿。

You're just like, hey.

我是不是漏掉了什么？

What am I missing?

我觉得我们本来可能预期市场会在这个时候触底。

I think we probably would have been expecting the markets to be bottoming around, you know, this time.

但结果呢，我们现在是全面看多的状态，而且现在投资组合管理里涉及的风险管理比我预想的要多得多。

Instead, you know, we're in a fully risk on stance, and there's a lot more risk management that's coming into portfolio management right now than I was expecting to have.

我原本以为我可能还会更积极地配置市场。

I thought I'd probably still be, you know, allocating to the markets a little bit more aggressively.

但现在我们反而在做一些风险管理，梳理投资组合，检查各个仓位，放眼整个市场，试图判断我们接下来该往哪儿走。

Instead, we're we're kind of doing some risk risk management, going through the portfolio, going through the positions, looking at the market broadly, and trying to determine kinda where we're going here.

嗯，当你赚了这么多的时候，我觉得这样做是明智的，环顾四周，看看宏观上发生了什么。

Well, when you're up so much, it's sensible, I think, to do that and to look around and and to see what's happening in the macro.

而且确实有一些令人担忧的指标。

And there are some concerning measures there.

至少我们会讨论这些，然后看看你最后的判断是什么，最后我们还会总结关键指标或者关键价位。

At least we'll we'll talk about them and see what your prognosis is at the end of this, and then we'll end with key indicators as well or key price points.

我们先从……我得说，在开始这期节目之前，比特币大概在83.8千美元。是的。

Let's start by maybe, and I should say going into this episode, Bitcoin is about 83.8 k Yep.

在录制的时候，所以还是高于五十周移动平均线。

At the time of recording, so still above that fifty week moving average.

我们先来梳理一下现在的情况。

Let's just set up where we are right now.

做个回顾，因为按照你的说法，市场结构已经发生了变化，经历了一种阶段性的转变。

Do a recap because according to you, the market structure has changed, has undergone a phase shift of sorts.

我们已经从熊市结构转向了早期牛市结构。

We have gone from a bear market, market structure, to an early bull market structure.

当然，早期牛市是我们几周前在这期节目中讨论过的市场四个阶段之一。

Of course early bull is one of the the four stages in the market that we talked about a couple of weeks ago in this episode.

给我们快速回顾一下当前市场结构的情况。

Give us a quick recap on where that market structure sits today.

我们先谈谈那些群体吧。

Let's talk first maybe about the cohorts.

好的。

Sure.

所以，我们在熊市期间讨论了很多主题。但真正关键的是，我们触及了之前周期的高点区域，也就是大多数币在5.6万到6.6万美元区间盘整。

So a lot of themes that we've been discussing throughout the bear market, But, really, the key thing here is that we hit that, you know, prior cycle top zone in in terms of the most coins consolidating in the 56 k to 66 k zone.

这发生在八月中旬。

This came back in mid August.

我们分享过这个。

We shared this.

当时我们分享说，这是我们正在检查的一个箱子，同时也在看其他一些高层次的KPI。

We kinda shared at the time that this is, a box, you know, that we're checking along with a a lot of the other high level KPIs that we're looking at.

所以，是的，那是第一件事，好的，你知道，我们可以勾选那个箱子。

And so, yeah, that was the first thing that, okay, you know, we can we can sort of check that box.

自那以后，我们看到币价略有上涨，这也是我们过去几周讨论过的。

We've seen coins rotating upwards a little bit since since that time, which we've discussed over the last few weeks.

但现在有37%的币在5.6万到9.2万左右的较低成本基础区间盘整。

But we've got 37% of the coins that are now consolidating at these lower cost basis ranges between 56 to 92 or so.

在市场高峰期，这个比例是15.9%。

That was 15.9% at the peak of the market.

所以总的来说，这算是一次重新洗牌，目前大多数币都在这个区间内盘整。

So so a total, you know, kind of reshuffling there, and and that is where most of the coins are consolidating at this point.

所以从市场结构的重置来看，这看起来是健康的。

So that that looks healthy in terms of, like, a a reset of of the market structure.

另外，我们还看到了我所说的顶部买家群体，也就是2025年进入市场的那批人，他们大概在10万8到12万7左右的高位买入。

And then on top of that, we've seen the the sort of what I call maybe the top buyer cohort, the people that came into the market during 2025, somewhat at the top of the market between a 108, 127 k or so.

我们看到这些币的供应量减少了55%。

We've seen those coins have reduced in supply by 55.

这和我预期的一致，那些在高位入场的弱势持有者已经认赔出局，他们的币也发生了转移。

So that's pretty consistent with what I would be looking for in terms of kind of the, you know, weaker hands that came into the market at the top, have have capitulated, have rotated their coins.

所以我们已经看到了这种情况的发生。

So we've seen that play out.

我们还看到了ETF方面的投降式抛售。

We also saw what I would call, like, a capitulation in the ETFs.

这大约发生在5月中旬到7月初之间。

This this occurred from, like, mid May up until early July or so.

我们看到ETF的持仓，无论是从管理规模还是比特币数量来看，都减少了将近10%。

We saw the ETF holdings in terms of, like, AUM and Bitcoin reduced almost 10%.

我们看到当时大多数ETF持有者都处于未实现亏损的状态。

We saw most of the ETF holders were, you know, were in an unrealized loss position at that time.

所以我们看到ETF方面也有一定程度的洗盘。

So we kinda saw, you know, somewhat of a reset on on the ETFs.

我们之前聊过矿工。

We've talked about minors.

我们通常会关注矿工群体的净持仓变化，看他们是否也有一定程度的投降。

We typically look for, you know, also a bit of a capitulation in the minor cohort in terms of their net position change.

我们在八月份也看到了这种情况，而且现在矿工们实际上已经开始重新积累比特币了。

We also saw that play out in in August as well, and we've seen the miners actually now starting to accumulate Bitcoin.

所以当我想到我们在熊市中寻找的那些信号时，这里已经满足了很多条件。

So when I think about just the kind of, like, things that we were looking for in the bear market, I'm checking a lot of boxes here.

没剩下多少让我觉得，哦，你知道的，还差什么。

There's not too many that I'm like, oh, you know what?

这这这让我有点紧张。

This this this makes me nervous.

然后你再叠加宏观因素，就更难保持风险偏好的态度了。

And then you sort of overlay the macro, and it makes it harder to kinda be in a risk on stance.

单看市场结构的话，我觉得我们已经完成了轮动和重置，看起来相当健康。

When I look at just kinda purely market structure, I feel like we've kind of rotated and reset that, and it looks pretty healthy to me.

如果熊市真的结束了，我们正处于牛市初期，那这些就是我们预期会看到的情况。

This is all what we would expect to see then if the bear market has ended and if we were in an early bull market.

所以到目前为止，各项指标都在全力推进。

So so far, the indicators are full steam ahead.

你还提到了那份报告，再次强调了这个观点：坏消息已经不再压低价格了。

You also mentioned the report, again reiterating this point, the bad news, it's no longer pushing price lower.

我们看到了十年期国债的消息，实际收益率上升，当然还有油价飙升，以及量子计算担忧再次成为热门话题。

So we had the ten year news, we have real yields up, of course, we have oil spiking, we have quantum fears that has doubled down again as a narrative.

《清晰法案》失败了，这是一项重要的国会法案，但已经胎死腹中。

The Clarity Act failed, it's a major act of Congress, and it's dead on arrival.

尽管有策略上的担忧，比特币还是上涨了44%。

There were strategy concerns, and yet Bitcoin is up 44%.

这显示出典型的卖方枯竭迹象，市场只是到了该动的时候。

Indicates the classic sign of sellers were exhausted and it was just time for the market to move.

所以我们现在的情况就是这样，感觉这是一个相当不错的布局，也很好地表明我们正处于这轮牛市初期。

So that's where we are and it feels like it's a pretty good setup, it's a pretty good indicator that we are in this early bull phase.

但现在我们来谈谈宏观层面，这就是你开始皱眉的地方。

But now let's talk about macro and that's where you start to raise your eyebrows.

我们来看看你看到的一些宏观指标。

Let's go on a tour of some of the macro indicators that you're seeing.

我觉得宏观方面令人担忧的是，我的意思是，我们……

I think what's concerning about macro, I mean, we...

现在市场已经消化了三次加息预期。

We've got three rate hikes now priced in priced in.

对。

So Right.

一直升到……

Going up into...

大概到明年六月份左右。

Through June or so of next year.

所以我担心的是，市场可能没预料到的是加息周期会更长。

So I think the concern and probably the thing that the market could be offsides on is sort of a a longer rate hiking cycle.

我觉得即使第一次加息的时候，大多数人都在想，好吧。

I think even when we got the first hike, most people are kinda looking at that saying, okay.

美联储需要恢复一些信誉。

The Fed needs to restore some credibility.

我们需要一次加息，然后我们再观察情况。

We need we need a we need a rate hike, and then we'll kinda monitor things.

你知道，他们不可能一直加息到中期选举甚至之后。

You know, there's no way they're gonna just, like, keep hiking into the midterms and and thereafter.

所以我就一直回到这个问题上，试图预测事情会怎么发展。

And, you know, so I just kinda keep coming back to this and trying to forecast, you know, where things are going.

什么……

What's...

经济健康状况如何？

What does the health of the economy look like?

宏观经济是个非常大的话题，你可能会因为关注各种不同的事情而把自己搞得晕头转向。

Macro is an extremely big topic, and you can get yourself pretty twisted up on looking at different different things.

但当我从宏观层面来看时，我认为劳动力市场对我来说仍然相当强劲。

But when I kind of look at it from a high level, I think either the labor market still looks pretty strong to me.

我们周五会得到更多劳动力数据，我几乎觉得市场可能会寻找那里的疲软迹象，这暗示经济或增长可能正在下滑，那样的话可能会支持通胀下降，以及暂停一些加息。

We're gonna get some more labor data on Friday, and I almost think the market's probably gonna be looking for weakness there that sort of suggests that the economy or growth may be, you know, rolling over, which would then support, you know, potentially lower inflation, you know, a pause on some of these rate hikes.

所以这是一件事。

So that's one thing.

我能问一个最宏观的问题吗？关于加息可能对加密货币不利，是不是因为联邦基金利率，也就是曲线的短端和长端，如果两者都在上升，那么总体资本成本，也就是全球经济的无风险利率在上升，所以随着这些利率上升，人们会说，嗯，我为什么要投资这种风险资产呢？因为我可以锁定五年期国债，获得大约5%到6%的收益，对吧？

Can I just ask the highest of levels when it comes to sort of rate hikes being potentially bad for crypto, is that just because at the Fed funds rate, you know, the shorter side of the curve and the longer side of the curve, if both of those are going up, then the cost of capital generally, the risk free rate for the global economy is increasing and so as those rates increase people say well you know why would I invest in this risk asset because I can go lock in five year treasuries at like five to 6% or something like that?

所以这有点像资本从风险市场被吸走，流向避险债券市场，或者传统上被认为是避险的债券市场。

And so it's sort of a slurping effect of capital from the risk on markets to risk off bond markets or traditionally risk off bond markets.

你说的就是这个意思。

That's what you're talking about.

但这不取决于加密货币，比如比特币，是被视为风险资产，还是别的什么吗？

But doesn't that depend on whether crypto, Bitcoin let's say is perceived as a risk on asset or if it's something else?

如果它更像黄金，我觉得它可能跟美联储的利率变动关系不大。

If it's more like gold, I don't know that feels like it it could be a little independent of Fed fund movement.

实际上，你可以说，收益率的变动有一部分是这种叙事在起作用，就是收益率上升是因为美国卖不出债券，因为投资者想要更高的收益率，因为美元的回报不那么确定了。

In fact some of the yield movement you could say well that's you know there's part of the narrative going on here which is like yields are going up because The US can't sell bonds because investors want want a higher yield because the returns are are less certain on the dollar.

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

我觉得从实际发展来看，这是对的。

I think that's correct in terms of, like, how this plays out.

而且当你看到利率上升，如果你是婴儿潮一代，你的很多财富都在股票里，你可能会把一部分转到债券上，赚个5%的收益，然后你……

And when you see the rising rates, you know, if you're if you're a baby boomer and you've got, you know, a lot of your wealth tied up in equities, maybe you move some of that, you know, into into into bonds and clip, you know, 5% on that, and you...

你会有点开心，觉得自己投资得更安全了。

You're kind of happy, you feel like you're in an even safer investment.

所以我觉得风险就在这里，真的就是投资者的配置，以及资金最终会流向哪里。

So I think that's the risk here is it's really, you know, investor allocation and where where capital flows are are ultimately going to go.

你知道，问题在于，这会不会影响加密货币和比特币？

You know, the question is, is this going to impact crypto and and Bitcoin?

我有点继续淡化这种想法，因为我们已经经历了市场结构的重置、杠杆的重置，我们所有的关键指标都达到了，而且基本上确立了……

And I kind of, like, continue to sort of fade that idea because of what we've kind of gone through in terms of the market structure reset, the leverage reset, all of our KPIs being hit and sort of, like, establish...

确立了一个新的基础，你知道，这些投资者是不是……

Establishing a new base, you know, are these investors...

这些投资者是不是那些会重新配置资金的人？

Are these the same investors that are going to be sort of reallocating capital?

我有点觉得可能不是，而且这些投资者其实相信比特币处于更好的位置，最终会表现更好，他们宁愿持有比特币，也不愿持有国债去赚那5%的收益。

I sort of kinda think think probably not, and that these investors actually believe that Bitcoin is in a better spot and will will actually outperform, and you'd rather hold Bitcoin than hold treasury bonds and clip clip your 5%.

所以这就是我的看法。

So that's kind of kind of my view.

同时，如果我们真的加息，如果债券市场波动加剧，如果信用利差扩大，这些都会整体上收紧市场流动性，也可能影响加密货币市场。

At the same time, if if we have these rate hikes, if we have, you know, a rising rising volatility in the bond market, if we see credit spreads blowing out, these are the things that, you know, sort of reduce liquidity conditions broadly in the market and could, you know, could impact the crypto markets.

我一直关注的一个方面是，关于健康的经济，我们之前谈到了劳动力市场。

One thing I've been just looking at in terms of, like, the healthy healthy economy, we talked about the labor market.

现在ISM指数处于扩张区间。

ISM is is in expansion mode right now.

我们一直在关注银行贷款。

We've been looking at bank lending.

这在本周的报告中已经提到了。

We covered this in the report this week.

商业和工业贷款表现非常好。

Commercial and industrial loans are are doing very well.

所以银行在这个利率水平下还在放贷，考虑到利率这么高，这挺有意思的。

So the banks are are lending at these levels, which is interesting considering the higher rates.

所以商业环境中对贷款的需求仍然很大，银行也在积极放贷。

So there's still a lot of demand in the business environment for for loans, and the banks are lending.

所以不仅仅是……

So not only are are...

银行贷款的同比增长率高达10.2%，而且如果你看看那些实际上在收紧贷款标准的银行比例，这个数字还在持续下降，这在收益率上升的情况下，其实是个挺有意思的局面。

Is the year over year growth in in bank lending up 10.2%, but then if you look at the percentage of banks that are actually tightening lending standards, this just continues to to decline, which is kind of interesting setup when you have, you know, rising rising yields.

好的。

Okay.

所以我在试着理解这一点。

So I'm I'm trying to interpret that.

银行贷款增加，这对经济来说是利好的，你可能会认为在某种程度上对风险资产也是利好，这肯定不是经济衰退的迹象。

Bank lending going up, that would be bullish for the economy, and you would think at some level maybe bullish, more bullish risk assets, It's certainly not the sign of a recession.

我

I

不知道，这里有什么令人担忧的迹象吗？

don't know, like what are the concerning signs here?

因为在这个宏观部分，你描绘了一些好的迹象，事实上你在这个宏观部分的结尾总结说经济实际上看起来很强劲。

Because in this macro section, you paint a mix of some signs that are good, in fact you kind of conclude some of this macro section with like the economy actually looks strong

但同时也有些担忧，我看了下这些担忧，更多是跟收益率相关的。

And yet there are also some concerns and when I looked at the concerns it was sort of more along the realm of of yields.

比如就连通胀这块也是。

Like even even inflation here.

你这里有个图表，显示通胀是2.4%，这是核心通胀。

You you have a chart here where you're showing inflation and it's 2.4%, and this is core inflation.

所以这个2.4%里不包括能源。

So this is not energy in this 2.4.

你想说明的是，实际上核心通胀在2.4%这个水平，我们表现得还不错。

You're making the point that actually core inflation, we're not doing too bad at 2.4%.

整体CPI高很多的原因，是因为加上能源成本、油价这些之后，我们就大概在3%以上了。

The reason general CPI is a lot higher is because when you add energy costs, oil prices, etcetera, then we're kind of like north of of 3%.

但如果能源价格能降下来，比如伊朗那边不满之类的，那通胀也不会亮红灯。

But if energy were to, you know, go down, Iran bore was was dissatisfied, even inflation is not showing a a red alert.

所以当我们看整体情况时，经济里确实有很多好事在发生，但你仍然有担忧。

So like when we look at this full picture, there's a lot of good things that seem to be happening in the economy, and yet you're also concerned.

对。

So Yep.

给我列个清单吧。

Give me the ledger here.

好的方面是什么，让人担心的又是什么？

What's the what's the good stuff and what's the concern part?

关于通胀这一点，你知道，这是核心通胀，所以，嗯……

And on the inflation point, you know, where this is core inflation, so, you know, it's...

这里的观点是，好吧。

The argument here is, like, okay.

如果你把食品和能源这些大家都要花钱的东西剔除掉，通胀其实是在下降的。

If you strip out food and energy, which are the things everyone needs to pay for, then inflation is is in decline.

但我觉得这可能会让美联储在未来的加息上有所犹豫，如果他们看到……

But I think this is sort of giving the Fed probably some pause on future rate hikes if they're seeing...

比如，其他所有东西的价格都在下降。

Like, everything else is sort of dropping in in price.

然后如果能源价格下跌，你会觉得那会带动所有东西一起降下来。

And then if if energy prices drop, then you would think that that would bring everything down with it.

所以，这就是一种看法。

So so that's that's one view.

但是，是的，我的意思是，我大概的想法是，经济很强劲。

But, yeah, I mean, I think the the sort of high level of how I'm thinking about this is the economy the economy is strong.

我有点担心的是，有点像2022年的那种情况，我觉得那可能是……

And one thing that I worry a little bit about is kind of a 2022 like setup, and I think that's...

这开始有点渗透到投资者的心理了，就是经济非常非常强劲，然后可能加息反而会推高通胀，听起来有点疯狂。

This is starting to kinda get baked into investor psychology now a little bit where the economy is running very, very strong, and and potentially rate hikes could be inflationary, which sounds kind of crazy.

但如果你有……

But if you have...

嗯，因为我们的利息支出太多了，那是一个……

Well, because of how much interest expense that we have, that is a...

你知道，那对政府来说是支出，但对私营部门来说却是收入。

You know, that's an expense for the government, but that's income to the private sector.

所以，你知道，这实际上是在往外付钱，而且在某种程度上创造了流动性，考虑到我们现在所处的债务水平，这挺有意思的。

So that's, you know, paying out, and it's actually creating liquidity in in in some ways, which is an interesting concept when you get to the debt levels that that we're at.

但我觉得，这里的关键是银行贷款表现不错。

But, you know, I think the the main thing here is that bank lending is doing well.

我们知道有大量的人工智能资本支出。

We know there's a ton of AI CapEx.

我们知道……

We know the the...

在财政方面，我们仍然有占GDP 6%的赤字。

On the fiscal side, we're still, you know, running a deficit, 6% of GDP.

所以，经济中有大量资金在流动。

So there's, like, plenty of capital, you know, swirling around the economy.

这……

This...

你会觉得这应该……

You would think that this would...

核心CPI实际上可能会比现在更高，但看起来目前正处于下降趋势，因为经济运转得太热了。

That the core CPI would actually potentially be higher than than than what it is, and it looks like it's in a downward trend right now because the economy is is running so hot.

所以我最终想说的是，基本上，所有的目光都集中在……

So kinda what I am coming back to is, like, basically, all eyes are kinda coming into an...

集中在伊朗发生的事、油价走势上，因为在我看来，目前的经济是健康的，除了油价之外，通胀压力并不大。

To what's happening in Iran, what's happening with oil prices, because the setup to me looks like you have a healthy economy that is not super inflationary outside of outside of oil.

如果油价下跌，食品价格可能也会跟着下降。

And if you take oil down, then food prices probably come down.

这会影响到其他所有商品的成本，所以食品价格可能会稍微回落一些。

That impacts the inputs on everything else, so food prices probably come down a little bit.

所以对我来说，所有的目光都集中在……

So to me, this, like, all eyes are are on...

自从战争开始以来，过去一年里我们多次回到这个话题。

We've we've kinda come back to this theme a little bit over the last year since the war started.

但如果这里能达成某种协议……

But if you do have some sort of agreement here...

我不知道。

I don't know.

你知道，我没办法预测。

You know, I can't forecast.

我没有任何优势去预测那边会发生什么。

I have no edge trying to forecast what's gonna happen over there.

但如果真的达成了某种协议，或者，你知道，我们看到一些石油……

But if you did have some sort of agreement or, you know, we've seen some oil...

你知道，现在通过海峡的石油比过去几个月多了。

You know, more oil is getting through the straight than than was in the last few months.

如果我们看到的前景对石油有利，油价下跌，那可能会迅速扭转目前市场定价的三次加息。

If we see sort of a a a forward outlook that looks positive for oil and oil prices come down, that could quickly reverse this three rate hikes that are being priced in.

而且那可能是一个看涨的信号，表明我们并不是……

And and maybe that is, like, a bullish, you know, indicator that we're sort of not...

你知道，既然我们已经加了这么多次息，如果油价出现任何反向变化，对我来说，那可能是一个相当有趣的局面，因为经济本身是健康的。

You know, now that we've gone so far with rate hikes, any flip in the other direction in terms of really what looks like oil to me, you know, you could have, like, a pretty interesting setup where you've got a healthy economy.

现在油价在下跌，美联储可能暂停加息，那这就是你的看涨信号。

Now oil's coming down, and the Fed's probably pausing rate hikes, and then that's your your bullish indicator.

不过，话虽如此，我还是觉得加密市场的结构比其他宏观风险更值得关注，我更看重这个。

I mean, I will I will say with all that said, I still keep coming back to, like, the crypto market structure as the thing that's, like, I'm putting more weight on than some of these other macro risks out there.

当然。

Sure.

好的。

Okay.

所以你是说，未来可能的加息会让你整体看跌，对吧？

So you're saying the rate hikes in the future potential of rate hikes, that would make you net bearish, let's say, in in your position.

那……

How...

油价也是。

And and so is oil price.

如果油价继续上涨，继续走高，那就会给沃什和美联储施加更多压力，让他们继续加息，那对你来说就是净看跌。

If oil price continues to rise and continues to go north, that puts more pressure on Warsh and the Fed to continue to raise rates and that would be net bearish for you.

不过，这里也可能有一个积极的催化剂，比如油价下跌，伊朗那边出现和平，你知道的，有些事往好的方向发展了，那剩下的就是一个……

However, there could be a positive catalyst here which is just like oil prices go down, there's some peace in Iran, you know, something something breaks in a positive direction there, and then what you're left with is kind of a...

一个相当火热的经济，而且是好的那种火热。

An economy that's pretty hot and hot in a good way.

就像这些指标都在大幅增长。

It's like growing a lot in these measures.

不过我想问你一个指标，这个我还没完全……

I I want to ask you about one measure though that I'm not fully...

我还没完全搞懂，我不太常看这个，但我知道迈克尔·豪厄尔在他的研究里经常提到，那就是MOVE指数。

I don't fully grok, I don't look at this a lot, but I know Michael Howell brings it up in his work a lot and that is the move index.

那这个MOVE指数到底是什么？

So what is the move index here?

而且它现在波动得更厉害了。

And it is getting a bit more volatile.

一般来说，当豪厄尔谈到MOVE指数时，当然我们这里也把他当作全球流动性衡量指标的主要权威之一，而全球流动性对加密市场和黄金这类贬值对冲市场影响很大。

In general when Howell talks about the move index and of course we've sourced him here as sort of the one of the chiefs of measurement indices around global liquidity which has a big effect on crypto markets and debasement markets like gold and that sort of thing.

但豪厄尔会说，移动指数上升会增加波动性，这实际上是流动性收缩的早期信号。

But Howell would say that rising a move index increases you know volatility here, and that is an early indicator of shrinking liquidity actually.

所以他看移动指数，如果它变得波动，他就说流动性收缩即将到来，而流动性收缩对加密货币来说总体上是利空的。

And so he looks at the move index and if it gets volatile then he's saying shrinking liquidity is actually ahead and shrinking liquidity would be net bad for crypto.

是的。

Yes.

对风险资产也是。

Also risk on assets.

所以……

So...

我们看到移动指数有点开始变得尖锐了。

And what we see is a move index that is kind of getting a little spiky.

这让你紧张吗？

Does that make you nervous?

你同意豪厄尔的哪些观点，又不同意哪些呢？

What do you agree with Howell, and where do you disagree?

在这一点上我同意豪厄尔的观点。

I agree with Howell on this.

这就像，你知道，我觉得他差不多是追踪全球流动性的首选人物，这真是……

This is like, you know, I think he's kinda like the go to guy for tracking global liquidity, which is...

我觉得这周全球流动性刚刚创下历史新高。

Which I think just hit an an all time high this week.

但这有点像……

But this is kind of like...

这会被纳入他的衡量体系里。

This gets folded into his mix and how he's measuring that.

你知道，他在看央行的资产负债表和很多其他因素，但他也会考虑债券市场的波动性，当波动性上升时，对流动性是负面的。

You know, he's looking at central bank balance sheets and and a lot of number of factors, but then he's also factoring in things like volatility in the bond market, which when it rises, is liquidity negative.

所以，是的，那张图表有点令人担忧。

So, yeah, that chart is a little bit concerning.

我们开始看到它有点飙升了。

We're starting to see it it it spike up a little bit.

之前几次达到这个水平，也就是远远超过一百、一百二左右的时候，正好是三月份停火之前，还有去年关税风波那阵子。

The last few times that it went that it went to these levels where it was, you know, well over a hundred, hundred twenty or so was just before the ceasefire back in March and then during kind of the tariff tantrum last year.

所以确实是个值得担心的问题。

So definitely a concern.

我觉得政策制定者也在关注这个。

I think policymakers are watching this.

对吧？

You know?

而且我们知道贝森特正在通过回购来试图压低波动性。

And we know Besant is out there trying to tamp down volatility with buybacks.

贝森特就是那个操盘手。

Besant's the house.

对，贝森特就是那个操盘手。

So Besant's the house.

我的意思是，我们之前聊了很多关于这个的，这也是让我转为看多风险的因素之一。

I mean, we we talked a lot about that, and that was one of the things that kind of had me flip risk on.

有意思的是，自从那之后……

It is kind of interesting that since that's...

你知道，他出来说他是那家机构，然后试图宣布回购。

That, you know, he's come out and said he was the house and and tried to, you know, announce the buybacks.

我觉得他把回购翻倍了，而且一直出来说他们会管理好。

I think he doubled them and and kind of keeps coming out saying that they're gonna manage it.

你知道，我们看到十年期收益率在上升，两年期也在上升。

You know, we are seeing the ten year rise, you know, and and the two year rise as well.

我们之前主要关注收益率曲线的长端，但有意思的是，两年期收益率涨得比……还快。

We've been mostly focused on the longer end of of the yield curve, but what's kind of interesting is the two year has been rising faster than than...

所以短端实际上比长端涨得更快。

So the short end is actually rising faster than than the long end.

两者都在涨，但两年期涨得更快。

They're both rising, but the two years rising faster.

所以收益率曲线在那里有点趋平。

So you have a yield curve that's kind of flattening there.

我们刚才聊了很多关于银行贷款的事。

We just talked a lot about bank lending.

这对银行贷款来说不是好事，因为银行是借短贷长。

That is not good for bank lending because the banks are borrowing short lending long.

如果短期利率上升，就会挤压他们的净息差。

If the short end's rising on them, that's pinching their kind of net interest margin.

所以，我还是觉得这一切都归结于通胀和利率的走向，因为那会影响……

So, again, I just think this all comes back to, you know, inflation and and where rates are gonna go because that's gonna impact...

这会产生很多连锁反应。

There's so many ripple on effects onto that.

我觉得这也会影响银行贷款。

It's it's also gonna impact, I think, bank lending.

不过，是的，债券市场的波动和指数，绝对是我们关注的重点。

But but, yeah, move index and and the volatility in the bond market, definitely something that we're watching.

如果那上升了，我预计流动性状况会减弱，股市方面也可能出现一些波动。

If that goes up, I would expect liquidity conditions to to weaken and potentially see some volatility on the equity market side as well.

所以你觉得经济很强劲。

So you think the economy is strong.

你有点担心未来的加息，以及加息和债券收益率上升会抽走资金。

You're a little bit worried about rate hikes in the future and, you know, kind of capital being sucked out by both rate hikes and rising yields on on bonds.

不过，那你怎么看这个问题呢？

However, where does that leave you with the question?

我们之前问过你，因为加密货币表现这么好，你重新审视了宏观经济。

So we asked that, you know, you were taking a second look at at Macro because things seem to be going so well in crypto.

重新审视之后，你的结论是什么？

After that second look, what's your conclusion?

结论是，感觉冒险做多有点奇怪。

Conclusion is, you know, it it feels weird to be risk on.

在这种环境下，加密货币投资组合表现很好，感觉有点不真实，我觉得这可能就是让我有点犹豫的原因。

It feels weird to have a crypto portfolio that's that's doing, you know, really well in this environment, and I think that's probably what...

这让我有点犹豫。

What's giving me a little bit of pause.

但是，你知道，投资组合还是保持风险偏好。

But, you know, the portfolio is staying staying risk on.

我们并没有，你知道，获利了结或者做任何调整。

We're not, you know, taking profits or or or making any changes.

原因在于，我确实觉得我们现在处于下一个加密货币周期的早期阶段，而且比特币已经从那些低点反弹了。

And the reason for that is, you know, I do feel like we are in the kind of early stages here for the next crypto cycle, and we have had a move for Bitcoin off those lows.

我们已经看到……

We've seen...

我们谈到过山寨币领域在过去一个月左右表现确实很突出。

We talked about the altcoin space really outperforming here over the last month or so.

我有点把这看作是对恐惧和贪婪情绪的重估，而且我们之前超卖得太厉害了。

I sort of view that as more of just, like, a rerating of, like, the, you know, fear and greed, and we were so oversold.

我想大约90%在观察名单上的资产都跌到了我们的公允价值目标价，这些目标价大多在80%到90%左右。

I think about 90% of the assets that were on the watch list fell into our fair market value price targets, which were mostly, like, 80 to 90%.

我们之前预计很多这些资产会下跌大约80%到90%。

We were projecting things to drop, you know, roughly 80 to 90% on a lot of those assets.

所以我们当时……

And so we had...

你知道，整个市场的气都泄了。

You know, the air came out of the entire space.

当它……

And when it...

当那种情况反转的时候，所有这些资产都可能重新定价，几乎翻倍。

When that sort of flips, you can have all these things reprice and and go up almost a 100%.

这就是为什么我们真的……

That's why you really...

我们真的努力在那个时期保持在场。

We really tried to focus on being in the market for that for that period.

所以我觉得我们现在看到的就是这个情况在发生。

So I think that's what we're seeing play out.

对我来说，这感觉不像是周期末期或者太泡沫化。

It doesn't, to me, feel like it's a, you know, late cycle or late stage or too too frothy.

在牛市初期甚至熊市里，我们也经历过这样的时期。

We have had periods during kind of early in early in a bull market or even in a bear market.

上一次出现山寨季是在2022年8月，我指的是……

The last time we we had an all season in August 2022, and I and I refer...

我所说的……

What I call...

就是山寨季。

Refer to all season.

我指的是CoinGlass的山寨季指数，我觉得那个指数挺准的，基本上就是广泛地监控这个。

I'm kinda referring to coin glass's altseason index, which is the one that I think is really accurate and just kind of, like, you know, broadly monitoring this.

在FTX事件之前，2022年8月有过一次山寨季，那段时间ETH涨了70%。

We had a altseason in August 2022 before FTX, and and that was a period where ETH was up 70%.

很多基于以太坊的资产在那段时间也涨了不少。

A lot of Ethereum based assets were up during that period.

所以我觉得，那时候就是超卖得太厉害了。

So I kinda just view it as, like, we were so oversold.

我们算是重新定价了。

We've kinda repriced.

市场上主要还是加密货币圈内的人。

It's still mostly crypto natives in the market.

宏观方面确实很混乱，我也做好了应对波动的准备，尤其是进入中期选举季的时候。

And the macro side of things definitely is is messy, and I'm, like, kind of prepared for for volatility here, especially heading into the midterm season.

但我……

But I'm...

我没办法说服自己就这么说，你知道吗？

I can't sort of justify just being like, you know what?

这风险太大了，太大了。

This is too much this is too much a risk.

我的意思是，我们已经……

I mean, we've already...

我们已经经历了这么多，我不认为我们……

We've seen this performance through through a lot of this, and I don't think that we're...

你知道，如果我看到比特币和其他主要币种的杠杆真的在累积，我们在山寨币上确实看到了一点。

You know, if I was seeing, like, leverage really building up on Bitcoin and some of the other majors, we're seeing that a little bit on on altcoins.

但我就是看不到加密货币这边的风险，而这才是我真正更关注的地方。

But I just don't see the risks on the crypto side, and that's the side where I'm really putting more of my focus.

所以这算是……

So it's a it's a...

一个有点绕的回答。

The rambling answer.

另外，我觉得政策制定者的动机，甚至可能包括伊朗，你知道，上周中国来美国进行了国事访问。

And the other thing is, like, I just think that the incentives of the policymakers, possibly even Iran, you know, we had China, you know, came to US for a state visit last week.

还有……

There's...

我只是觉得所有这些人的动机都不是要毁掉世界，然后让这种情况继续下去。

I just think the incentives of all these people is not to blow up the world and and and, you know, have this continue.

所以我在押注这件事会得到解决，或者会有某种临时协议，或者，你知道，我们看看接下来会怎样。

And so I'm kind of putting this weight on, like, this this this gets resolved or there's some sort of interim agreement or, you know, we'll see where it goes.