纳斯达克对比特币：挺过200日均线跌破

市场目前状况如何？

What's the state of the markets?

今天是2026年3月25日。

It is 03/25/2026.

欢迎来到这份报告。

Welcome to the report.

市场表现得过于自满。

The markets are complacent.

这是迈克今天所说的。

That's what Mike says today.

当我们谈论自满的市场时，我们实际上指的是纳斯达克。

And when we're talking about complacent markets, what we're really talking about is the Nasdaq.

我们讨论的是股票以及那些仍在购买这些风险资产的投资者。

What we're talking about is equities and the investors that are still buying these risk assets.

今天的问题是，传统金融市场是否准备追随比特币进入熊市？

The question today, are the trad fi markets poised to join Bitcoin in the bear market?

也许比特币是煤矿中的金丝雀。

Maybe Bitcoin was the canary in the coal mine.

投资者是否在等待伊朗战争的下一个‘玉米饼’转折点？

And are investors waiting for the next taco pivot on the Iran war?

这是天真，还是他们具有前瞻性？

Is that naive or are they being prescient there?

也许他们只是过于自满了。

Maybe they're just being complacent.

我们谈论伊朗战争、油价、链上数据，那么在这些杂音中，真正的模式是什么？

We talk about the war in Iran, oil prices, on chain data, and and what's the pattern here through the noise.

当然，请继续看到最后。

Of course stick around to the end.

我们有一个关于观察名单的特别更新。

We've got a special update on the watch list.

正如你可能记得的，观察名单是迈克对其最爱的加密资产的公允市场价格，包括对比特币、Hype和Zcash的一些深度价值预测。

The watch list, as you might recall, are Mike's prices, fair market value prices for his favorite crypto assets, including some deep value price calls for Bitcoin, hype, and Zcash.

迈克，每周三我都感觉自己像在拆圣诞礼物，因为早上我会收到一份全新的TDR报告。

Mike, every Wednesday I feel like I'm opening up a Christmas gift because in the morning I get a fresh report on the TDR.

我超喜欢这个。

I love it.

这份报告感觉像是上周的续集，上周我们还在比较2026年的市场和2022年的市场。

This report felt like a sequel to last week in a way where last week we were comparing the 2026 market to the 2022 market.

是的。

Yeah.

你对这个比较有什么看法？

And how do you feel about that comparison?

我有一个问题，这种比较是不是太简单了？

One question I had is is that just too easy?

你是说我们在事后附会2022年的数据，看到它在2026年重演，还是说根据你看到的指标，这种类比是可靠的？

You know, are we like backfitting some data and seeing the pattern of 2022 and it playing out in 2026, or do you think this is the kind of safe given the indicators you're seeing?

我认为这就是我目前所依赖的类比模型。

I think this is the analog that I am anchoring to right now.

我认为从流动性角度来看，当前的形势与2022年非常相似，尤其是我们看到的通胀情况以及美联储被束缚住的手脚。

There's a number of reasons why I think the the setup is very similar from kind of a, you know, liquidity perspective, from what we're seeing with with inflation and kind of the Fed's hands being tied.

2022年的通胀是由新冠疫情引发的。

It was it was COVID inflation back in 2022.

今年，我们面对的是油价问题。

You know, this year, we've got oil.

当你观察房地产市场时，现在的抵押贷款利率已经上升到大约6.4%，这与2022年美联储加息时的环境很相似。

And, you know, when you look at the real estate market and we've got mortgage rates now going up to, like, 6.4% or so, similar environment back in 2022 that the the Fed was hiking rates.

如果你看看一些图表，那种见顶的走势模式看起来非常非常相似。

And if you look at some of the charts, like, the sort of pattern of topping looks very, very similar.

最近纳斯达克发生的事情是，我们刚刚跌破了200日移动平均线。

And what just happened recently for Nasdaq is we just broke the two hundred day moving average.

因此，我认为本周这期节目我们可以深入探讨一下，当我们开始跌破200周移动平均线时会发生什么。

And so we can kinda get into this, I think, at this week in this episode, kinda what happens when we start to break below two hundred week moving average.

抱歉。

Sorry.

二百日移动平均线，以及它可能对风险资产走势意味着什么。

Two hundred day moving average and kinda what that could potentially mean for where, you know, risk assets are heading.

你知道，比特币会跟随还是可能引领这一走势？

You know, is Bitcoin gonna follow or potentially lead that move?

你知道，我们这周可以深入探讨一下。

You know, we can kinda get into that this week.

所以我认为这正体现了市场不会重复但会押韵，你确实看到了与2022年的一些相似之处，尽管可能不会完全一样。

So I guess this is a case of markets don't repeat but they do rhyme and you're definitely seeing some rhyming going on with 2022, although maybe it won't be exactly the same.

在进入今天节目的核心内容之前，我们必须感谢我们的朋友和赞助商GALAXY，这一点特别献给正在聆听的机构投资者。

Before we get into the meat of today's episode, we gotta thank our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY, and this one's for the institutions listening.

如果你关注金融的未来——即加密货币，或者下一个工业革命——即人工智能，那么GALAXY是你必须了解的名字。

If you're looking at the future of finance which is crypto or you're looking at the next industrial revolution which is AI of course, GALAXY is the name you need to know.

他们已在这两个领域确立了全球领导者的地位，不仅限于数字资产，还包括推动人工智能的基础设施。

They've established themselves as a global leader in both of these fields, not just digital assets, but also the infrastructure that's powering AI.

在数字资产方面，他们提供机构交易、托管和代币化服务。

On the digital asset side, they have institutional trading, custody, tokenization.

他们在多个周期中都稳如磐石。

They've been here through multiple cycles, rock solid on that side.

而在人工智能领域，他们实际上拥有数据中心。

And then on AI, they actually have data centers.

因此，一个具备高性能计算能力的数据中心，包括他们的Helios站点，已获批的电力容量达到1.6吉瓦。

So an HPC ready data center including their Helios site, this is 1.6 gigawatts of approved power.

这是一座核电厂，再加上所有这些设施，其股票代码就是GLXY。

It's a nuclear power plant plus all of this under the ticker that you know, GLXY.

如果你想了解Galaxy如何帮助机构投资、构建和持续转型，去了解一下吧。

If you want to see how Galaxy helps institutions invest, build, and transform relentlessly, go check them out.

节目说明中有链接。

There's a link in the show notes.

Bankless.cc/galaxy。

Bankless.cc/galaxy.

好的。

Alright.

让我们回顾一下这一周的情况。

Level set on the week.

你这一周的仓位安排是怎样的？

Your positioning going into the week.

我这里做了一些四舍五入，大约50%是现金，50%是加密货币。

I'm rounding some numbers here, but about 50% cash, 50% crypto.

所以你一半处于风险敞口并做好准备，另一半则保持耐心。

So you're half risk on and ready, and then half you're being patient.

录音时比特币的价格是多少？我们现在是多少？

The Bitcoin price at the time of recording, what are we at?

71千？

71 k?

大概是这个数吧？

Something like this?

当然，最有趣的是观察比特币与纳斯达克指数的表现对比。

What's been really interesting of course is to observe Bitcoin versus the Nasdaq.

你今天报告的开头是这样的。

You start today's report like this.

尽管全球局势动荡，比特币仍展现出强劲势头。

Bitcoin continues to show strength amid global uncertainty.

目前比特币交易价格约为7.1万美元，较高点下跌了44%，但自2月上旬以来上涨了13%。

It's trading at about 71 k, down 44% since the peak but up 13% since early February.

与此同时，纳斯达克指数开始出现疲软。

Meanwhile the Nasdaq is starting to crack.

目前它已较2025年10月29日的高点下跌了9.2%。

So it's now down 9.2% from the 10/29/2025 high.

它刚刚跌破了200日移动平均线，正如你所说，MAG七只股票持续表现不佳。

It just broke its two hundred day moving average which you said and MAG seven continues to underperform.

所以，我们现在要深入探讨的核心问题是：你的市场展望在很大程度上取决于你对宏观、油价、地缘政治以及伊朗战争的看法。

So let's get into the crux of this right now which is your outlook on markets somewhat depends on your outlook on macro, oil, geopolitics, and the war in Iran.

是的。

Yes.

伊朗战争现在真的是关键所在。

The the war in Iran is is really I think the the key thing right now.

你知道，目前大家关注的焦点是这些头条新闻，以及可能的谈判和停火。

You know, this the the headlines and, you know, potential for negotiation now and ceasefires, I think that's what what people are focused on currently.

我认为我们昨天看到的消息，可能是为期三十天的停火或开启谈判。

And I think the news that we saw yesterday with potentially, like, a thirty day ceasefire or opening up for negotiation.

目前还不清楚实际情况，因为我们看到特朗普表示正在展开讨论，还提到一件所谓的‘礼物’。

It's unclear what's actually happening here because we see Trump indicating that there's discussions happening and something about a a gift, you know, that was given.

我不知道你昨天有没有看到这个。

I don't know if you saw this yesterday.

我看到了。

I saw this.

你知道吗？

You know?

我印象中特朗普甚至一度称它为‘奖品’。

Was even called a prize at one point, I think, by Trump.

所以，我觉得从这个角度来看，这件事非常有趣，我认为特朗普是个出色的谈判者，光是看他怎么做就很有意思。

So, you know, I think this is fascinating to watch from you know, I do think Trump is a good negotiator, and, like, it's it's fascinating just to watch what he's doing from that perspective.

他真的在说一个奖品吗？

Like, is he is is he talking about a prize?

这件事真的发生过吗？

Is that did it even happen?

他这是在向谁传递信号？

Like, who's he signaling to?

他是在向市场传递信号吗？

Is he signaling to the markets?

当他这样说话的时候，他是在跟伊朗对话吗？

Is he talking when he starts to talk like that, is he talking to, you know, Iran?

这里到底发生了什么，真的很难判断。

It's it's hard to hard to tell what's going on here.

但我觉得，如果你能抓住对双方来说最重要的事情，我对伊朗局势的看法是，这主要跟中国有关。

But I think if you sort of just anchor to what I think is most important to both sides, My view on sort of what's happening in Iran is this is mostly, you know, about China.

我认为特朗普政府在地缘政治方面的几乎所有举措，本质上都与中国有关。

And I think almost everything that the Trump administration is doing on the, you know, geopolitical front is primarily related to to to China.

因此，对美国来说，最重要的是对霍尔木兹海峡的控制。

And so the thing that's most important for The US is control over the the Strait Of Hormuz.

而且，我们能够赢得这场战争，我们正在主导它。

And, like, we can win we are we're dominating this war.

我觉得奇怪的是，我们实际上已经重创了他们的海军。

And I think this is the weird thing is, like, we've basically crippled their navy.

我们已经消灭了大部分领导层，并且在没有地面部队的情况下做到了这一点。

We've taken out most of the leadership, and we've been able to do that without boots on the ground.

但看起来你虽然赢得了战役，而真正的战争将由谁控制海峡来决定。

But it seems like you're winning the battle, and the actual war is gonna be won by who controls the straight.

所以我认为这最终归结为这一点。

So I think that's really what this ultimately comes down to.

我们看到了伊朗提出的一些要求以及美国的要求，但双方的立场相去甚远，根本无法达成中间妥协。

We saw, I think, some of the, you know, demands that Iran had and the demands that The US has, and they're just not even close to, you know, meeting anywhere in the middle there.

所以，你知道，我之所以这么看，是因为我觉得这会是一场更加持久的博弈，而市场也预期如此。

And so, you know, I'm anchoring to this just being a a sort of more drawn out thing that I think the markets are expecting.

我认为很多人仍然陷在这种思维里，觉得特朗普能通过谈判化解这场危机。

I think a lot of people are still sort of stuck in this mode of, like, Trump can negotiate his way out of this.

他能靠谈话摆脱困境。

He could talk to his way out of this.

我现在逐渐转变看法，只想说：嘿。

I'm sort of fading now and just saying, hey.

这是一件非常重大的事情。

This is, a really big deal.

石油市场已经遭受了相当大的破坏和动荡，但目前看来，并没有一个清晰明确的解决方案。

There's already been quite a bit of destruction quite a bit of disruption to the oil markets, and it doesn't feel like there's, like, a clean a clean resolution here.

以色列也牵涉其中。

You have Israel that's involved.

所以，你知道，我对这些事并不专业。

So, you know, I'm not an expert on any of this.

我知道每个人都在试图发表意见，当起地缘政治专家。

I know everyone's trying to opine and become a geopolitical expert.

我不是专家。

Not an expert.

我只是想专注于我认为最重要的事情。

Just trying to focus on what I think is most important.

我觉得特朗普现在所做的部分努力，是想争取一些时间，看看是否能在真正派兵之前找到谈判的途径。

And it feels like, you know, part of what Trump's doing right now is trying to buy some time, see if there's a way to negotiate before we actually have to put boots on the ground.

我想我们刚刚宣布，又有大约一千名士兵正在前往途中。

I think we just announced that there's actually more troops that are now heading another thousand troops or so on their way.

我觉得目前大约有三千名士兵，要么正在途中，要么已经出发。

I think we've got about 3,000 on that are either, you know, in transit or on their way.

此外，我认为目前在波斯湾的一些基地上，还驻扎着大约五万名美军。

And then I think there's about 50,000 US troops that are stationed on some of the bases, you know, in The Gulf right now.

所以，这就是我认为正在发生的事情。

So it's kind of what I think is happening.

不知道。

Don't know.

你知道，如果你不在特朗普的核心圈子里，很可能根本不清楚到底发生了什么，但这就是我试图把握的重点。

You know, obviously, if you're not in Trump's inner circle, you probably, you know, are are don't really know what's going on, but that's kinda what I'm trying to anchor to.

然后从那里出发，这又如何影响到风险资产呢？

And then just from there, you know, how does that bleed how does that transmit to risk assets?

我只是觉得这预示着油价上涨、波动性增加，而且我认为风险资产的前景会更弱。

I just think it points to to higher oil prices, you know, more more volatility, and, you know, a weaker setup, I think, for for risk assets.

所以让我确认一下，我认为你今天报告中想表达的意思。

So let me make sure I understand what I think you're saying in today's report.

你觉得这场战争中，美国真正的目标其实是针对中国和对华贸易政策。

You think the the real objective in the war is is, for The US at least is more to do with China and trade policy with China.

对。

Correct.

所以你列出了特朗普政府可能的目标。

So here are the possible Trump admin objectives that you state.

伊朗不能拥有核武器。

No nuclear weapons for Iran.

推翻伊朗政权。

Regime change in Iran.

他们已经公开说过这些话。

They they've said those things publicly.

第三，控制霍尔木兹海峡。

Number three, control of the state of Hormuz.

第四，影响中国的出口政策和出口经济。

And number four, influence over China's export policy export economy.

你指出，控制霍尔木兹海峡使美国能够影响对华石油运输，而中国70%的石油依赖进口，其中40%到50%经由霍尔木兹海峡运输——这一点我之前不知道。

And you make the point that control of the Strait Of Hormuz allows The US to influence oil flows to China, which imports, I didn't know this, 70 of its oil and gets 40 to 50% of that via the Strait Of Hormuz.

因此，第五点是中国出口价格上涨。

And so number five is higher export prices out of China.

通过影响对华石油运输，美国可以削弱中国以低于全球水平的价格进行生产的竞争力。

Influencing oil flows to China allows The US to influence its ability to produce at uncompetitive prices relative to the rest of the world.

所以，如果这五点都是特朗普政府可能的目标，那么前三点是必需的。

So if those five things are possible Trump admin objectives then it needs the first three.

禁止核武器似乎是一个可能且可实现的目标。

No nuclear weapons seems like possible doable.

政权更迭，我不太确定这具体意味着什么。

Regime change, I'm not really sure what that means.

这取决于你如何定义它。

It depends on how you define that.

但第三点，对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，由于它与中国经济高度关联，若成为美国的必要目标，问题就在于他们是否真能实现这一点？

But this third one, control over the Strait Of because it's so economically linked with China, that being mandatory as an objective for The US, it seems like the question is can they actually get that done?

因为在霍尔木兹海峡的博弈中存在一种不对称性——防守远比伊朗发动攻击要困难得多。

Because there's an asymmetry at play here in kind of the warfare over the state of Hormuz in that it's much harder to defend than it is for Iran to attack.

这就是为什么你认为，除非美国重新投入、大幅增加地面部队，否则要实现所有这些目标将非常困难，但似乎这也不是特朗普想做的事。

And this is the reason what you think that this is it's not going to be easy for The US to take all of these objectives unless they recommit double down on the war boots on the ground something and that doesn't seem to be what Trump wants to do either.

基于以上所有原因，你说这就是为什么这场战争可能比投资者预期的持续得更久。

And for all of these reasons you're saying this is why the war could drag out longer than investors expect.

你是说市场预期是，是的，他们觉得特朗普会像处理其他情况一样，设法脱身吗？

Because are you saying the market expectation is yeah they just think Trump will finagle away out of this he has with other situations?

你知道他有一种倾向，就是先升级局势，然后又退缩， somehow 从自己制造的麻烦中脱身。

You know he has a tendency to escalate and then like back down and like somehow get himself away from the thing that he just escalated.

而市场正是在预期这一点。

And that's what the market's anticipating.

这是一场短期战争。

That's a short war.

它不会持续太久。

It won't last long.

但你说，如果真正目标是必须能够防御并拥有主权，而美国对霍尔木兹海峡有一定影响力，那么除非进行更持久、更深入、更高程度的投入，否则可能根本无法实现这一目标。

But you're saying if the if the true goal is you have to be able to defend and have sovereignty and The US has some influence over the Strait Of Hormuz, there just might not be a way to actually achieve that without a longer war, a deeper war, a higher commitment.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得你这番话总结得非常好。

I think that sums it up really well.

而且，你知道，如果你真正关注我们这里讨论的与中国相关的内容，就会发现他们从霍尔木兹海峡获得大量石油，而且实际上是以折扣价获得的。

And, you know, when you if you really focus on sort of what we're talking about here with China, it's really what what's happening is they get a lot of oil from the the Strait Of Hormuz, and they're actually getting that at a discount.

对吧？

Right?

他们与伊朗是盟友，因此实际上是以折扣价获得这些石油的。

They're they're allies with Iran, and so they're getting that oil actually at a discount.

这里的大背景是，中国能够以不具备竞争力的价格生产，而这正是特朗普试图平衡的问题。

The the big picture here is that is that China is able to produce at uncompetitive prices, and that's really what Trump is trying to balance out.

他不希望世界其他地区在商品上完全依赖中国。

He doesn't want every the rest of the world to be reliant on China for for for their goods.

所以我们正试图平衡这一点。

And and so we're trying to balance that out.

你知道，实现这一点有不同的方法。

You know, there's different ways that you can approach that.

我认为很明显，他们正在将石油作为一种战略手段来应对这个问题。

I think it's pretty clear they're they're using oil as as a strategic approach to this.

我认为我们在委内瑞拉所做的，实际上是现在我们在霍尔木兹海峡看到的这一举措的前奏。

I think what we did in Venezuela was sort of the precursor to this move to now what we're seeing in the Strait Of Hormuz.

你知道，这感觉非常混乱，因为政权更迭到底意味着什么？

And, you know, it's just it's it just feels very messy because, you know, regime change, what does that actually look like?

我认为美国甚至都无法决定这一点。

I don't think that The US can even decide that.

我认为这很可能必须由伊朗人民内部自发产生，而这可能需要通过某种地面入侵来控制该海峡。

I think it probably has to happen from within the people, you know, in in Iran, and that would probably come about through some sort of ground invasion to control that strait.

我不认为我们有必要直接控制海峡，然后切断中国对全球石油供应的获取。

And I don't think we necessarily want to just, like, control the strait and then cut China off from, you know, global oil flows.

我认为更合理的做法是，让市场自由运作。

I think it's more just like, let's have a free marketplace.

让中国购买石油，随便怎样，但必须和所有人支付同样的价格。

Let's let China buy the oil, whatever, but it's but but pay the same price as everybody else does.

我认为这正是我们试图实现的目标。

And I think that's what, you know, we're trying to accomplish.

这感觉就像，天啊，如果这真是目标的话，要脱身可真够混乱的。

It just feels like, man, this is a messy situation to get yourself out of if that's truly the objective.

对吧？

Right?

你没在报告里提到这一点，但我得补充一下，还有一个潜在玩家，那就是俄罗斯在做什么？

You didn't include this in the report, but I'll just add there's another player on the horizon too, which is what is Russia doing?

他们的利益是什么？

What's in their interest?

而且看起来，他们对爱沙尼亚等邻国的态度似乎比对乌克兰更激进，他们可能会利用这场混乱做其他事情，对吧？

And and there it looks like they're potentially being more aggressive to some of their neighbors like Estonia and such, not just Ukraine, so they might use this chaos to do other things, right?

这是市场可能还没考虑到的另一个变数。

That's another wild card that the market maybe hasn't yet considered.

无论如何，你说的是，因为这场战争可能比市场预期的持续更久，导致油价上涨，你觉得这和2022年很相似。

Anyway you're saying because this war could drag on longer than the market thinks oil prices go higher you think that this is a good analog for 2022.

再提醒一下我们2022年发生了什么，因为那时我们也经历过类似的状况——战争、流动性，还有所有这些因素。

And remind us again of what happened in 2022 because we did have some similar conditions with a war and liquidity liquidity and and all all of of these these things.

事情。

Things.

我们确实如此。

We did.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，真正引发2022年情况的是，我们一开始就有由新冠疫情导致的通胀问题，比如供应链堵塞。

So, really, what kicked off 2022 was we had an inflation problem to start with that was related to COVID, you know, supply chains being gunked up.

然后在年初，俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。

And and then going into early in the year was when Russia invaded Ukraine.

在我们系统中已有的通胀基础上，又叠加了油价上涨。

And and then adding on to the inflation that we already had in the system, now you've got oil prices rising.

油价的实际涨幅和峰值远超我们目前在这次中断中所看到的水平，这让我有些惊讶，因为这次的问题规模更大。

Oil prices actually rose much faster and and higher than what we've seen so far with this current disruption, which somewhat surprising to me because the this is a larger sort of problem to deal with.

占霍尔木兹海峡石油出口的20%。

20% of the oil coming out of the Strait Of Hormuz.

所以这次的干扰要大得多，但市场尚未反映出这一影响。

So the disruption is much larger this time, but we haven't seen that play out in the markets just yet.

我认为部分原因是特朗普政府正在采取许多措施试图压低价格。

I think part of the reason is the just a lot of things that the Trump are do Trump administration is doing to try to suppress the the price.

他们在期货市场或衍生品市场做了一些事情，试图压低价格。

They're doing stuff, like, in the, you know, futures markets or derivatives markets, you know, trying to suppress price.

他们释放了战略石油储备。

They've opened up the strategic petroleum reserves.

他们放宽了对伊朗的一些制裁，以让更多漂浮在海上的石油运往目的地。

They've reduced some sanctions on Iran to get, you know, more oil out out that's out floating on the sea to its destination.

因此，他们正在尽一切努力阻止油价大幅上涨，但这些措施只能起到有限的作用。

So they're doing everything they can to try to prevent, you know, oil from really taking off, but these measures can only get you so far.

这种积压，类似于新冠疫情时期供应链出现的问题，目前正全面堵塞，而我们尚未看到它真正冲击市场——我的意思是，我们已经看到汽油价格上涨，而且在东亚国家的情况更糟。

And that buildup, similar to, like, what happened with COVID with supply chains is just getting all backed up right now, and we haven't seen that hit the markets in real I mean, we've seen gas prices rise, and it's it's actually worse in in the East and Asian countries right now.

但我们尚未看到那种恐慌情绪，而这种恐慌可能在未来出现，比如人们开始囤积物资等等。

But we haven't seen, like, you know, this this sort of panic just just yet, and that's what put could potentially come where people start hoarding and things like that.

但从2022年市场表现来看，纳斯达克指数在年初就率先反转下跌。

But in terms of just, like, how this played out in the markets in 2022, Nasdaq ultimately rolled over early in the year.

它在比特币见顶后大约一周达到峰值，随后全年下跌了约35%，并在2022年触底。

It peaked at a similar time when Bitcoin did about a about a week after Bitcoin, and it ultimately fell about 35% throughout the year bottoming in in 2022.

我们看到的是比特币实际上跟随了这一走势，抱歉。

And what we saw is really Bitcoin following that I'm sorry.

比特币其实是领头的。

Bitcoin leading this.

我们对比特币和纳斯达克之间的相关性做了大量回溯测试。

And we've done a bunch of back testing on the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq.

比特币通常领先于纳斯达克，且在熊市中两者相关性最强。

Bitcoin tends to lead Nasdaq, and it tends to be most correlated in in bear markets.

我会先说到这里，但我认为，当前这种通胀如何传导至风险资产的格局，我们可能才刚刚进入纳斯达克更深幅调整的初期阶段。

So I'll pause there, but I think this setup here with inflation and how that bleeds into risk assets, we're kind of at the early stages, I believe, of kind of a deeper correction for for the Nasdaq.

我们会看看情况如何发展。

And, you know, we'll see we'll see how it plays out.

还有其他你也会注意到的模式匹配。

And there are other pattern matches that that that you make too.

这还是中期选举年，和2022年一样。

It's also midterm year, the same way 2022 was.

而且抵押贷款利率现在也很高。

It's also mortgage rates are are pretty high.

市场表现疲软。

There's so there's a weak market.

我不确定2022年是否出现过这种情况，但现在的抵押贷款利率已经达到了6.4%。

I don't know if we saw that in 2022, but mortgage rates are now 6.4%.

自从我们上次交谈以来，我也看到十年期国债收益率这一周有所上升。

And I've seen ten year yields increase on the week since we last spoke too.

所以这将带来

So that's going

更多的压力。

be some more pressure.

此外，随着实际利率上升，抵押贷款利率也在上涨。

In addition, as real rates rising and you also have, you know, like mortgage rates rising.

你还要考虑油价。

You also have oil prices.

所有这些都相当令人困惑。

All of this is pretty confounding.

也许我们更详细地看一下2022年的周期，因为它对你的论点非常重要。

Maybe let's let's let's zoom in a little bit more on the 2022 cycle since it's it's very important for for your thesis.

在2021年11月15日，纳斯达克见顶，那就是我们在2021年11月的高点。

So on 11/15/2021, that was the Nasdaq top, So that's where we topped in November 2021.

两个月后，纳斯达克跌破了200日移动平均线，较峰值下跌了9.2%。

And then two months later, you say we the Nasdaq broke its two hundred day moving average 9.2% from its peak.

但那时，比特币已经提前预示了这一切，引领了市场走势。

But at that point, Bitcoin had already foretold all of this by leading the market.

是的。

Right.

而那时，比特币在两个月内已经下跌了36%。

And because Bitcoin at that point, two months in, was down 36%.

我想象那时有些纳斯达克投资者会想，好吧，这倒是个机会。

I imagine at that point there were some Nasdaq investors like, okay, this is an opportunity.

我们在抄底。

We're buying the dip.

牛市还没结束。

Bull market's not over.

但四个月后，纳斯达克又下跌了13%，从高点累计下跌21%，而比特币则下跌了41%，对吧？

But then the Nasdaq four months into the market proceeded to drop another 13% down 21% from its peak whereas Bitcoin was down 41%, right?

所以，比特币在2022年实际上领先纳斯达克一路跌至低点，而纳斯达克却还没准备好认输，还没打算就此罢休，当时他们可能对市场所显示的信号、对比特币所显示的信号感到过于自满。

So it's like Bitcoin is kind of leading the Nasdaq in 2022 down to its lows whereas the Nasdaq was not not ready to capitulate, not ready to you call it a day and you'd you'd say maybe they were complacent at that time to what the market was showing, what Bitcoin was showing.

而如今，在2025到2026年这一轮周期中，纳斯达克是在比特币见顶三周后才达到高点，对吧？

And now what's happening, I guess in the 2025, 2026 cycle, the Nasdaq topped three weeks after Bitcoin, right?

所以，这是顶部吗？

So is this the top right

在这里？

here?

几周后，又过了几周。

A few weeks a few weeks later.

是的。

Yeah.

2022年的时候只有一周，而这次周期则是几周，走势大致相似。

It was one week back in 2022, and it was a few weeks this in this cycle, and it's playing out roughly similar.

所以，你知道，纳斯达克指数跌破了其200日移动平均线。

So, you know, we Nasdaq dropped below its two hundred day moving average.

2022年时花了大约两个月。

It took about two months in 2022.

这次花了大约四个半月。

It's it's taken about four and a half months.

所以我们刚刚跌破了这一支撑，从高点下跌了约9.2%。

So we just broke down from that, down about 9.2% from from the highs.

我现在关注的是，我们已经跌破了那个水平。

And what what I'm looking at now is just, you know, we're below that.

通常情况下，价格会从那里反弹，然后回抽到那个位置。

Typically, what happens is you'll come off of that, and then you'll get a retracement back back to it.

而那正是真正的考验时刻。

And then that's kind of, like, the moment of truth.

也就是说，那个位置现在是否变成了阻力位？

Like, are is that now resistance?

通常在那次回抽之后，你会看到一次显著的下行走势。

And are you are you gonna have a usually, you have a significant leg down after that retest.

所以我们现在正处在观察接下来走势的过程中。

So we're kind of in the process of seeing kinda where where we go here.

你知道，比特币的表现相当出色，实际上优于纳斯达克、黄金和标普500指数。

And, you know, Bitcoin has been performing quite well and actually outperforming Nasdaq, outperforming gold, outperforming S and P five hundred.

而未来的问题是，它是否会真正引领市场进一步下行？

And the the question is going forward is, like, is is it is it going to actually lead the markets down another leg?

我认为这就是我在这里的基本假设。

And I think that's that's kinda my base case here.

所以，迈克，如果纳斯达克和股市大致遵循2022年的走势，那么纳斯达克从高点已经下跌了9.5%。

So, Mike, if Nasdaq follows and equities follow roughly what happened in 2022, we're already down nine and a half percent from the high for for Nasdaq.

是的。

Yep.

纳斯达克还会再跌多少？

How much further does Nasdaq drop?

很难说。

It's tough to say.

我正在看，我基本的预期大概是15%到20%，这是我锚定的区间。

I'm looking at, like, probably my base case is is probably 15 to 20% is kinda what I'm anchoring to.

而且

And

是总共下跌15%到20%，还是再跌15%到20%？

15 to 20% total or 15 to 20% more?

大概会再跌15%到20%。

15 to 20% probably more.

我觉得我们可能会看到类似2022年那样的走势。

I'm thinking we're probably gonna see a similar kind of move to what we saw in 2022.

所以总跌幅可能在25%到35%左右。

So 25 to 35% or so of a total drawdown.

这基本上就是我的基本预期。

So that's kinda my that's kinda my base case.

这取决于美联储、油价等各种因素，显而易见。

It depends on sort of, you know, what happens with the Fed and oil prices, all of these things, obviously.

但如果我们认为战争会持续下去，那这就是我的基本情景。

But if we think the war is gonna stretch out, then that's kind of the the base case for me.

你知道，目前的状况让我有点想起加密货币熊市初期，那时候我们大概在8.5万到9.5万美元的区间。

And, you know, it's kinda it's the the the situation we're in right now sort of reminds me a little bit of, like, early in the crypto bear market when we were we were kind of at that 85 to 95 k range.

那时我们还不能确定是否真的进入了熊市，所以

It wasn't totally clear that we were going into a bear market at that stage, and so

十二月的时候很多。

lot of in December.

对吧？

Right?

我在十二月的时候强烈感受到了这一点。

I felt this very much in December.

很多人说：不是的。

A lot of people were like, no.

还没结束。

It's not over.

这只是加密资产的一个回调。

We're just it's just a dip for crypto assets.

是的。

Right.

而且，我觉得我们在纳斯达克和传统金融领域也正处于类似的情况。

And and, you know, I feel like that's kinda where where we're at with with Nasdaq and more on the TradFi side.

空气中确实弥漫着一些恐惧，但我认为仍然有很多人在逢低买入，期待市场最终自行恢复。

There's certainly some fear in the air, but I think there's still a lot of people that are that are buying dips and expecting this just to kinda work itself out.

所以，关于投资，我的基本假设是，市场整体通常需要更长时间才能接受当前的市场格局。

So, yeah, my base case, you know, with with investing is, like, it tends to take longer for the market as a whole to sort of accept the the the regime

你所处的环境。

you're in.

我们所处的范式。

Paradigm that we're in.

尤其是在一个正在转变的范式中。

Especially when you're in a shifting paradigm.

因此，目前多头和空头之间确实正在展开一场小规模的较量。

And so, you know, there's there's definitely a little battle be going on right now between the bulls and the bears.

但终有一刻，多头会占上风。

But at some point, the bull yeah.

我认为，空头最终会显得更加正确。

I think the the bears will start to look like they're more correct here.

当这种情况发生、当多头开始认输时，那可能是你开始密切关注市场动态并寻找良好买入机会的时候。

And when that happens and when the bulls start to capitulate, that's probably the time to start to get really interested in in what's happening and some good buying opportunities.

这就是你所说的风险偏好资产市场的自满情绪吗？

And that's what you mean by risk on asset market complacency.

投资者对纳斯达克市场感到自满，对美国股市也感到自满，因为他们都习惯了TACO模式——也就是特朗普制造了某种糟糕局面，比如关税，或者像格陵兰、委内瑞拉之类的事情，然后他又找到办法脱身。

Investors are complacent in the Nasdaq and investors are complacent with with US equities because they're all conditioned for the TACO, which is basically Trump gets us in a bad situation like tariffs or like, I don't know, Greenland or like Venezuela or whatever, and then he finds a way out of it.

对吧？

Right?

他从不会把事情升级到真正影响市场的地步。

And he doesn't escalate things to the point at which it really starts to affect markets.

投资者认为事情就会这样发展。

That's what investors think is going to happen.

你觉得这是一种自满情绪吗？

You think that's some complacency.

你觉得这并不是你的基本假设？

You think that is it's not your base case.

你的基本假设是他不会很快找到出路。

Your base case is that he's not gonna find a way out of this quickly.

这并不是我的基本假设。

It's not my base case.

这不是一个他可以单方面做出的决定。

This is not a unilateral, you know, decision that that that he can make.

所以我觉得情况会更复杂。

And so I just think it's gonna be messier.

也许我错了，也许真的有办法摆脱困境。

Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe there is a way out of this.

你知道，很难跟他对着干，因为他似乎确实能很好地掌控局面，但我只是觉得这事儿太乱了，而且需要时间。

And, you know, I it's tough to bet against him because he's he he seems to be able to, you know, kind of have a pretty good control of things, but I just think this is this is pretty messy, and it's it does take time.

比如，经济规模庞大，要真正改变方向需要很长时间，投资者的心理也要跟上这种变化。

Like, the economy is a big it takes a lot of time to get get the economy really kind of changing directions and also investor psychology to really kind of kinda catch up to that.

所以

So

好吧。

Alright.

所以如果这种情况发生，我们可以转向我们的加密资产，特别是比特币，以及一些链上数据。

So if that happens, then maybe we can turn to our crypto assets and and Bitcoin in particular, some on chain data.

如果这种情况发生，纳斯达克指数再下跌15%，那对我们的加密资产来说可不是好事。

If that happens, we get another large leg down for Nasdaq, another 15%, let's say, that's not going to be good for our crypto assets.

它们可能相对而言表现得更好，比如比起今年早些时候加密熊市初期的表现，因为弱势持有者已经被洗出去了，但我仍然认为，由于整体风险资产的损失，它们还是会下跌。

They might hold up better relative to, yeah I don't know, October what they did early in the crypto bear cycle because they've weak hands have been shaken out but they're still, I gotta think, going to tumble as a result of broader risk on asset you know losses.

那么，目前链上数据告诉我们什么？如果纳斯达克再次暴跌，这个故事会如何发展？

So what does the on chain data tell us right now and what does that story look like if Nasdaq does take another tumble?

是的。

Yeah.

所以让我们看看链上目前的情况，主要关注长期持有者群体，这些钱包至少已经有155天以上没有转移过任何比特币。

So taking a look at what we're what we're seeing on chain here and focusing mostly on just the long term holder cohort, these are wallets that have been marked that haven't moved any Bitcoin in over a hundred fifty five days at at minimum.

有趣的是，这次我们首次看到长期持有者实际上正在进入市场。

And so what what's interesting here is we for the first time, we're seeing long term holders actually stepping into the market.

这很好。

That's good.

这是一个好迹象，这是一个好迹象。

Which is a good sign, which is a good sign.

是的。

Yes.

因此，那些长期持有者——通常是比特币的聪明钱——现在正在观察这种情况，并说：等等。

So people are that are long term holders is typically the smart money of of Bitcoin are now looking at this and saying, wait a minute.

我们可能已经触底了。

We may we may have bottomed here.

对吧？

Right?

这个周期可能已经触底了。

The cycle may have bottomed.

我们正在看到市场出现一些强势。

There's we're we're seeing some strength in the market.

我一直在关注的是，这些迹象似乎有点过早了，我们在过去的周期中也见过这种情况，长期持有者提前介入了。

What I've been looking at is just, like, signs that that's a little bit early, and we've seen this in past cycles where the long term holders did step step in a little early.

然后我们又经历了一轮下跌，之后他们再次入场。

We then had another leg down, and and then they step back in again.

这实际上是底部逐渐稳固的体现。

That's really kind of the hardening of the bottom forming.

因为长期持有者正在做你所做的事情，他们在一点点地买入，对吧？

Well, because the long term holders are doing what you're doing is they're nibbling, aren't they?

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

没错。

Exactly.

我认为我们在这张图表上看到的就是，加密货币市场中有一部分人认为比特币已经在这个周期见底了。

I think that's I think that's what we're seeing show up in the chart is people are there there's there is a segment of the market, I think, in the crypto market that that thinks Bitcoin has has bottomed, you know, for for the cycle.

所以人们开始变得更加积极地出价买入。

So people are getting a little bit more aggressive to bid in there.

我觉得这还为时过早。

I think this is early.

你知道，等事情逐渐展开，我们就能确定了。

You know, we will know for sure, you know, as this as things start to play out here.

我觉得这还是有点早。

I think it's a little bit early.

那NUPL呢，也就是净未实现盈亏？

How about the the NUPL, the knupples?

对。

Yes.

净未实现盈亏是另一个你关注的指标。

The net unrealized profit loss is another metric you you look at.

在这方面我们现在处于什么位置？

Where are we there?

我们还没有进入红色区域，而红色区域通常表明最佳的买入机会。

We're not in kind of the red territory, which indicates the the best buying opportunity.

对。

Right.

而且我们可以看到这张图表上有一些明显的对称性，通常长期持有者的净未实现盈亏会跌破零线，进入更深的红色区域。

And there's there's you know, we can see some pretty good symmetry, you know, on this chart here where that net unrealized profit loss for long term holders typically will go below that zero line there and and get into a deeper red.

我们目前还没有到那个程度，这对我来说是另一个指标，表明我们很可能看到那条线。

We're not we're not there just yet, and it's it's another indicator to me that, you know, we're probably gonna see that line.

我们可能不会看到像深度红色区域那样的情况，但目前长期持有者的未实现利润水平仍然相当高。

We may not see, like, into, like, deep, deep red zone, but, like, we're still pretty elevated in terms of, like, where long term holder unrealized profits are right right now.

MVRV目前是1.61。

And MVRV, it's currently 1.61.

在之前的每一次熊市中，你提到它都曾跌破1。

In each prior bear market, you write, it's dipped below one.

是的。

Yep.

所以MVRV也表明，这个市场还有一段调整时间，还会有更多的抛售。

So MVRV as well indicates that there's still some time, still some capitulation left in this market.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我们已经见底，而这些指标却没有再稍微下降一点，那对我们来说将是一个非常异常的情况。

This would you know, it would it would be quite an outlier for us to have bottomed, and these indicators have not dropped a little bit lower.

因此，这让我更有信心认为，有很多指标——你当然可以找到一些看起来像是已经见底的指标，但我认为还有更多指标表明，概率上仍可能进一步走弱。

So this is just giving me a little bit more conviction that there's there's a lot there's some metrics, and you could certainly go out and find some metrics that look like maybe we have bottomed, but I think there's plenty more that say the the probability points to probably further further weakness.

其中一个指标是ETF。

Well, one of them is ETFs.

最近，ETF的资金流入看起来确实好转了。

The ETF inflows have actually started to look good here lately.

这会改变你的看法吗？

Does that change your opinion at all?

ETF的表现非常好。

ETFs look very good.