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欢迎收看本期报告。
Welcome to the report.
链上活动正在升温。
We have on chain activity heating up.
现在外面可是热闹得很。
It's getting hot out there.
这是牛市初期，还是又一次虚晃一枪？
Is this the early bull phase or is this another head fake?
今天是2026年9月9日。
It is 09/09/2026.
本周，我们要深入探讨链上活动，因为现在出现了一个有趣的局面。
This week, we're gonna go deep into on chain activity because there's an interesting setup out there.
比特币刚刚形成了金叉。
Bitcoin just printed a golden cross.
如果你不知道什么是金叉，我们会在今天的节目中解释清楚，并回答这个问题：这到底是确认了牛市初期，还是又一次假突破？这两种可能性我们都会分析。
If you don't know what a golden cross is, we're gonna define it in today's episode and answer the question as to whether that confirms the early bull market or whether this is another fake out, the two possibilities there.
另外，链上活动正在升温，Robinhood Chain、PONS、社交加密货币、消费加密货币，还有Mike所说的快速DeFi。
Also, on chain activity heating up Robinhood Chain, PONS, social crypto, consumer crypto, what Mike calls fast DeFi.
这是新的山寨币季节吗？
Is this the new Altcoin season?
这种情况能持续下去吗？
Can this last?
我们还会对本周进行一个对比和较量。
We're also gonna do a comparison and a matchup on the week.
PUMP对PONS。
PUMP versus PONS.
Mike对这两个都很早就关注了。
Mike has been early to both.
他认为这些代币和这些加密网络的前景如何？
What does he think the prospects are for these tokens and these crypto networks?
我们会得到完整的分析。
We'll get the full breakdown.
当然，请一直听到最后。
Of course, stick around to the end.
我们有一些数字要告诉你。
We got numbers that we're going to throw at you.
但有两个数字能概括一切，我希望你们在今天的节目开始时记住。
But two numbers that frame everything I wanna get you guys to remember at the beginning of today's episode.
69.9和80.4千。
69Point9 and 80Point4 k.
就是这两个数字。
Those are the two numbers.
它们能概括一切。
They frame everything.
我们会在节目最后讨论这个。
We'll discuss that towards the end.
迈克，我想从今天报告开头的那句话说起。
Mike, I wanna open with this line from the beginning of today's report.
你上周日说过，比特币自去年11月以来首次在50周均线上方收盘。
So you said this, last Sunday, Bitcoin notched its first weekly close at the fifty week moving average since last November since last November.
这是确认下一轮加密货币周期早期牛市阶段的重要一步。
It's an important step towards confirming the early bull phase of the next crypto cycle.
好的。
Okay.
重要一步？
An important step?
还是说，就这？
Like, or was that it?
就这？
Was that it?
我们现在已经处于早期牛市阶段了吗？
Are we now in the early bull phase?
你能用那个高于50周均线的数字来确认吗？
Can you can you confirm it with that number above the fifty week?
对。
Yeah.
你知道，我本来想说收盘价高于五十周均线，但我不得不用“在”这个词，因为我们刚好碰到它。
You know, I wanted to say closed above the fifty week moving average, but I had to use the word at in that sentence because we barely got to it.
所以周日我们基本上就收在五十周均线上。
So we closed basically right at the fifty week moving average on Sunday.
而且，你知道，我还没准备好说，好吧。
And, you know, I'm not ready to say, like, okay.
这就是警报解除。
This is the all clear.
有点像我们正要做出这个动作。
It's kind of like we're threatening to make this move.
你提到了黄金交叉，这是另一个指标，通常在你确立五十周均线作为支撑时出现，就在熊市结束的时候。
You mentioned the Golden Cross, which is another indicator that typically comes right around when you establish that fifty week moving average as support coming coming out of the the bear market.
所以我们这里开始有一些迹象在逐渐对齐。
So we've got some stuff sort of starting to to line up here.
然后，你知道，当你广泛地看加密货币生态系统时，我们看到很多有趣的信号，我觉得这些信号可能预示着接下来会发生什么，我们可以逐一讨论。
And then, you know, when you look broadly at the crypto ecosystem, we're seeing a lot of interesting signals, I think, of sort of what is potentially to come next, and we can kinda go through.
这挺有意思的。
It's kind of interesting.
我觉得有些人认为我们可能有点过于冒进，因为外面的事情发展得太快了。
I think there's some people thinking we're getting a little bit, you know, too out over our skis with how fast things are moving out there.
但我觉得，我们可以回顾一下2023年初发生的一些事情。
But I think, you know, we can kinda go back and go through some stuff that happened also in early twenty twenty three.
当时在场的人会记得这些事情，回顾一下有助于我们认识到，在周期早期也有过这样的投机热潮，我觉得这能帮助我们更好地定位当前的位置，开始思考接下来会发生什么。
People that were around will remember some of these things, and it's kinda helpful to go back and realize, like, there were also sort of these pockets of spec speculation like this early in cycles, and I think it'll help us kinda just level set a little bit where we're at, start to think a little bit more about what's coming.
而且，是的，这个快速发展的DeFi部分，这是我们几个月前就建立信心的东西，现在事情进展得很快。
And, yes, this this kind of, like, fast DeFi part of the portfolio, this is something we developed conviction in, you know, several months ago, and things are moving pretty fast.
我们现在几乎到了需要管理这些头寸风险的地步，因为它们涨得太多了。
And we're we're at a point where we're almost, like, you know, having to manage risk around some of these these positions because they've gone up so much.
所以这迫使我真正集中精力，锁定目标，是的，我们会逐一讨论这些。
So it's forced me to to really kinda strap in and and lock in here, and, yeah, we're gonna go go through some of that
这周。
this week.
这是个
That's a
不过，迈克，这是个好问题。
good problem to have, though, Mike.
你知道吗？
Know?
比如说，因为投资组合涨太多了，要管理过多的风险，我们会在最后讨论这个，还有其他这些事情，也许先来定个基调，比特币在录制时是78.4千美元，这比我们上次来的时候，七天里基本持平。
Like, managing too much risk because the portfolio has gone up too much, we'll talk about that towards the end, and all of these other things, maybe just to level set, Bitcoin at the time of recording, 78.4 k right now, that is about flat on the seven day since the last time we were back on here.
让我们来看看市场结构，做个比较。
Let's go into some of the market structure and get a comparison here.
你过去三周在报告开头放的群体分析，这周有什么变化？这告诉你什么？
So the cohort analysis that you've been putting at the head of the report for the last three weeks, how has that changed on the week, and what does that tell you?
所以，这和我们过去几周讨论的情况差不多。
So kind of playing out similarly to what we discussed the last few weeks.
所以现在的情况是，看起来有些在六万左右买入的人，可能并不是那种长期持有的坚定持有者，至少有一部分不是。
So what's happening is it looks like people some people that were buying in the sixties was actually maybe not so much the diamond handed long term holder type of buyer, at least some of it wasn't.
这些币正在以较高的成本基础转手给新的持有者。
Some of those coins are being passed to holders at these elevated cost basis levels.
所以币的成本基础区间在往上跳。
So so coins are sort of jumping up cost basis bands.
这是正在发生的一个现象。
That's one thing that's been playing out.
另一个现象是，我们仍然看到最高买入群体在按时间进行投降式抛售。
And then the other thing is we're still seeing sort of the time based capitulation coming from the top buyer cohort.
所以，有币从顶部卖出，流入到78到92k这些较低成本基础的群体中，同时也有一些在六万左右买入的币在这个区间被卖出。
So you have coins being sold from the top coming into these lower cost basis cohorts at 78 to 92 k, and then you have some coins that were bought in the sixties being sold in that in that range as well.
所以挺有意思的。
So kind of interesting.
在我看来，这和我预期在币价整合阶段看到的情况非常一致。
It looks to me pretty consistent with what I would expect to see kind of at this stage where coins are consolidating.
我觉得这里的关键问题是，那些想在五六万六这个区间买入的人，原本指望能在九月或者十月进场，现在到底会怎么样。
I think the main question here is whether or not, you know, the people that wanted to buy maybe that 56 to 66 k band that were hoping that they could do it in September or possibly October.
问题是，有多少资金其实还在场外观望，可能会进场买入七万八到九万二这个区间？
The question is, like, how much of that money is actually on the sidelines that may be coming in and actually sort of buying 78 to 92 k?
比特币现在卡在七万八上方差不多三个星期了。
Bitcoin's kind of been stuck in the upper seventies now for almost three weeks.
它没给那些可能错过几周前那波36%大涨的人任何机会。
It hasn't really given anybody a chance that maybe missed that that big 36 percent move a few weeks ago.
它没给那些人重新进场的机会。
It hasn't given those those folks a chance to get back in.
所以我在想，有多少资金还在场外，而且如果市场出现一些疲软，比如油价看起来要重回100美元上方，这是否会阻止我们。
So I'm wondering, you know, how much of that is on the sidelines, and is that gonna prevent us, you know, if we do have some weakness here with, you know, oil prices are you know, look like they wanna go back over a 100.
下周还有美联储会议。
We've got the Fed meeting next week.
所以我觉得市场可能会有一些波动，而且我认为我们会得到答案，就是有多少逢低买入的资金在场外观望，因为我觉得关键支撑位，你提到了六万九千九。
So I could see, like, there being a little bit of volatility in the markets, and I think we're gonna get the answer on, you know, how much sort of dip buying money's on the sidelines because I think the, like, the key support so you mentioned 69.9 k.
这里确实有点波动。
We do have a little bit of volatility here.
对我来说，守住那个关键支撑位会让我有信心，觉得下一步可能会更稳地朝着五十周均线走，第二次尝试时会更持久。
To me, that's the key support to hold that would give me confidence that, okay, we're probably the next move is probably gonna go towards that fifty week moving average, probably more durably on the second attempt to get there.
所以这就是我的大致想法。
So that's kinda kinda how I'm thinking about it.
总的来说，我觉得数据告诉我的还是，概率支持低点已经出现了。
I think, generally speaking, I still feel like the what the data is telling me is that, you know, the probability supports that the low the low still is still in.
那我得问问你了。
Well, I gotta ask you then.
你一直说大概有40%到45%的概率会继续下跌。
The probability, you've been saying about 40%, 40 to 45% probability that we could go lower.
然后大概60%的概率低点已经出现，这周你还是这个看法吗？
And I guess the, you know, 60% probability that the low is in, is that still your number this week?
我觉得现在越来越倾向于低点已经出现了。
I would say it's getting it's starting to tilt even more towards the towards the side that that that the low is in.
我可能会把这个概率调得更接近65比35，甚至70比30。好的。
I would probably push that closer to 65, 35, seventy, thirty Okay.
就目前来看。
At this point.
对。
Yep.
好。
Alright.
好。
Alright.
好。
Alright.
那么，如果你说得对的话，那个7万这个数字可能会比较有支撑力。
Well, so if you're right then, that 70 k number could be kind of sticky.
如果你说得对，这波最近的反弹让很多想进比特币市场的人踏空了，他们现在都在等着。
If you're right that some of these this recent rally has caught a lot of people who've wanted to be in the Bitcoin market offside, and they're they're waiting.
他们会在七万这个位置提供一些支撑。
They'll they'll they'll send some support in the 70 k.
我觉得，这对这个数字来说是个好兆头。
I mean, that's a good sign, I suppose, for the number.
不过报告里有一点让我有点担心，我想深入探讨一下。
One thing had me a little bit worried in the report though, and I wanna push on this.
你说过，我们认为长期持有者，也就是那些聪明的资金投资者，现在正在七万八到九万二这个区间进行整合，可能是因为他们认为这个周期的早期牛市阶段可能即将开始。
You said this, we believe long term holders, like the smart money investors, they're now consolidating in this cohort, the 78 to 92 k cohort, possibly because they think the early bull phase of the cycle may be commencing.
好的。
Okay.
那么，如果越来越多的人开始认为早期牛市阶段已经到来，我们是不是应该感到担忧呢？
So if it is starting to become consensus that the early bull phase is here, shouldn't that make us worried?
任何东西一旦成为共识，我自然会有点担心。
Like anything that becomes too consensus, I naturally get a little bit worried about.
市场往往会打击共识观点，让人措手不及。
Oftentimes the market will punch it, you know, punish the consensus opinion and catch people by surprise.
所以现在早期牛市开始成为共识了。
So now early bull is starting to become consensus.
你对此感到担心吗？
Are you worried about that?
你这么说，我现在确实有点担心了。
I am now that you said it.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我觉得这是个很好的观点。
I think it's a great point.
说实话，我通常更喜欢自己不在共识之内的时候。
And honestly, like, I gen you know, I'm usually, like, more comfortable when I feel like I'm outside of of consensus.
我知道你是这样想的。
I know you are.
我明白你的意思了，这确实让我有点紧张。
I see where you're going here, and it does make me it makes me a little bit nervous.
你知道，我们显然也会谈到整个加密货币生态系统的现状，而且我们已经看到一些迹象，表明人们已经开始忘记，价格并不总是上涨的。
You know, there's there's obviously, we're gonna get to what's happening kinda broadly in the the crypto ecosystem as well, And we're seeing some signs of that people are already forgetting that, you know, points don't always go up.
对吧？
Right?
这些东西波动很大，我们经常会被提醒这一点。
Like, the these things are volatile, and we tend to be reminded of that pretty consistently.
所以，是的，如果这真的成为共识，我有点不太确定的是，有多少资金在场外观望，等着在回调时进场。
So, yes, I would say if if this is becoming full consensus, what I what is a little bit outside of my purview is just how much of that capital is on the sidelines that that they try to, you know, get into the market on dips.
而且，接下来的几周，我觉得我们会学到很多。
And, you know, these next few weeks, I think we're gonna learn a lot about this.
让我们来了解一下比特币的黄金交叉。
Let's learn a bit about the Bitcoin Golden Cross.
那对于那些不懂技术分析、不知道这个指标是什么意思的人来说，你能给大家解释一下吗？
So for people who aren't into TA and they don't know what this measure and metric means, can you define it for folks?
我说黄金交叉刚刚出现了，对吗？
And am I correct in saying the Golden Cross was just crossed?
所以我们是已经达到了那个点，还是只是刚刚触及边缘？
So did we hit that, or do we just hit the cusp of it?
我们差不多是刚刚触及边缘，和五十周均线的情况有点像。
We kinda just hit the cusp of it, kinda similar to what happened with the fifty week moving average.
我们碰到了它。
We we touched it.
这是一个看涨的指标，它衡量的是短期五十日均线相对于长期两百日均线的位置。
This is a bullish sort of indicator, and what it's measuring is the shorter term fifty day moving average relative to the longer term two hundred day moving average.
我们可以看到，通常发生的情况是，当市场到达周期低点时，两百日均线（那条蓝线）会开始趋于平缓。
And we can see what tends to happen is the two hundred day moving average, the blue line there, will start to level out a little bit as you get to the cycle low.
所以看起来我们可能已经在两百日均线上触底了。
So it looks like we've probably bottomed on the on the 200 a day.
它开始趋于平稳了。
It's starting to level off.
两条移动平均线都开始向上拐，但五十日移动平均线因为最近的动能，上升得更陡一些。
Both both moving averages are starting to inflect up, but what's happening is the fifty day moving average is inflecting up at a steeper pace because of the momentum that we've had.
我们经历了36%的反弹。
We had the 36% rally.
所以这告诉我们，市场的短期动能相对于长期平均线开始出现拐点。
So it's telling us that, like, the shorter term momentum in the market is starting to inflect relative to these the longer term average here.
这和熊市结束时的典型表现是一致的。
And this is consistent with what we would see coming out of a a bear market.
在2023年，黄金交叉出现在周期低点之后的第七十八天。
The in the in 2023, we had the Golden Cross that came seventy eight days after the cycle low was in.
所以那是在2023年2月出现的。
So it came in February 2023.
我们现在大约在第七十天——抱歉。
And we're about seventy I'm sorry.
2023年那次是78天。
Was seventy eight days in '23.
这次我们大约70天就触及了那个位置。
We're about seventy days into that where we just touched it this cycle.
所以，你知道，差不多在同一个时间范围内，这是我们预期会发生的，而且这也是另一个指标，表明我们重新站上了50周均线。
So so fairly, you know, kind of in the same, you know, time zone range for where we would expect this, and it's just kind of another indicator of this and, you know, reclaiming that fifty week moving average.
我觉得这些是我在等待的信号，然后才能说，好了。
I would say these are the things that I'm waiting for to say, okay.
看起来我们已经确认安全了，你知道，我们正在进入我所说的早期牛市阶段。
It looks like we have the all clear that, you know, we've we we're sort of moving into this, what I call the early bull phase of the
节目。
show.
我还没感觉到完全安全，因为我们在黄金交叉点和50周均线上方的时间还不够长。
Not feeling that all clear because we don't have enough time, you know, above the Golden Cross number, above the fifty week.
这就是你在寻找的。
That's kind of what you're looking for.
我记得你好像说过类似的话。
I think you said something to this effect.
你当时是怎么说的？
What did you say?
关键信号是比特币能否在接下来几周内轻松突破五十周移动平均线。
The key signal will be whether Bitcoin can comfortably break the fifty week moving average in the coming weeks.
那个数字是多少，你具体想看到什么？
What is that number, and what concretely are you looking to see?
五十周移动平均线还在小幅下移，现在大概在八万零三百到八万零四百四十美元左右。
So it's still it's the 50 moving average is still moving down a little bit, so it's at, like, 80.3, 80.44 k.
它还在变动。
It's moving a little bit.
所以大概在八万附近，我想看到的是至少连续几周收盘站稳，并且有一个明确的突破。
So it's right around 80 k, And what I'm looking to see is multiple, you know, at least multiple weekly closes and, like, kind of a firm break.
另外，我们还没有收复五月份的高点。
The other thing is we still haven't reclaimed the the high from back in May.
所以，如果我们从大局来看，整体格局还是那样。对。
So we are still if you look at sort of broadly the the setup of the big picture here Oh, yeah.
比特币还没有证明它不是在形成更低的高点。
Bitcoin hasn't proven that it's not setting a lower high.
等等。
Wait.
五月份的时候价格更高吗？
We were higher in May?
五月份的感觉可没有现在这么好。
May did not feel as good as it feels right now.
对。
Right.
至少我不记得当时有这种感觉。
At least I don't recall it feeling like this.
是的。
Yeah.
我是说，那可能是最大的熊市反弹，而且，你知道，我们现在可能正处于熊市反弹中。
I mean, it was it was probably the biggest bear the other large bear market rally, and, you know, we we we could be in a bear market rally right now.
我们还不确定。
We don't know for sure.
但在五月份，你知道，那时候Sailor在买入，人们都说底部已经出现了。
But back in May, you know, this is when Sailor was was buying, and people were saying the bottom was in.
我们有过一次相当大的波动，从大约6万一路涨到，我记得，8万2。
We had a pretty significant move from, like, 60 k that went all the way up to, I think, 82 k.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而我们还没有完全达到那个水平。
And we haven't quite gotten to that level.
所以，你知道，如果我们开始超过那个水平，看起来就还不错。
So that's another you know, if we we start to move past that, it looks like, okay.
我们可能正在形成更高的低点，随着这波走势，但这一点还没有得到确认。
We're, you know, we've we've we're setting a a higher low potentially with this next move, but that's something that hasn't conferred.
我们还没有跌破五十周移动平均线。
We haven't broken the fifty week moving average.
所以我想看到，比如，连续几周在那个区间内站稳支撑，我觉得那才是我们要找的确认信号。
So I wanna see, like, a couple weeks, you know, establishing support in that range, And I think that will be the confirmation that that we'll be looking for.
这样做的问题很明显，就是如果你一直等，等它真的发生了，你可能会错过中间那百分之五到十的涨幅。
The the challenge with that, obviously, is that, you know, if you're waiting for it, once it happens, you might you may miss, you know, a five to 10% move or so in there.
所以……
So
ETF资金流这周看起来是正的，但也没有特别惊人。
ETF flows looking positive on the week, not blowing anyone out.
现货成交量这周也还是正的。
Seeing spot volumes still positive on the week.
衍生品也一样。
Derivatives as well.
你知道，我们也可以聊聊矿工。
You know, we could talk about miners.
市场上确实有一些健康的信号。
Just some healthy signals out there.
我想让你注意一下比特币的市占率，以及所谓的山寨季这个概念。
I I do wanna draw your attention to Bitcoin dominance and this idea of alt season.
你说比特币的市占率看起来还在往上走，这让我挺感兴趣的。
You said that Bitcoin dominance continues to look like it wants to move up, which is interesting to me.
对吧？
Right?
我们有一些猜测，稍后会在节目里讨论链上数据方面的猜测，但即便如此，比特币的市占率还是在上升。
We have this speculation that we'll talk about later in the episode, on chain speculation, and yet in the midst of that, we are still seeing Bitcoin dominance moving up.
你说有些山寨币从低点反弹了不少，市场上也有一些人猜测这就是山寨季。
You said some altcoins have made outsized moves off the lows, and there's some speculation out there that this is alt season.
大家开始用“山寨季”这个词了。
People are starting to use that term alt season.
是的。
Yep.
所以有些人会说，嘿，现在就是山寨季了，至少如果你在Robinhood的世界里，很多山寨币都在涨，那感觉就像山寨季。
So some some people are saying, hey, like, it's alt season now, at least if you're in the world of Robinhood, a lot of alts are moving, that feels like alt season.
另一些人会说，天哪，如果现在是山寨季，那也太早了吧。
Others are saying, oh my god, if it's alt season, that is way too soon.
对。
Right.
那实际上是个看跌信号。
That's actually a bearish signal.
是的。
Yep.
你怎么看比特币主导地位和山寨季，以及它是否已经到来，或者如果已经到来，是不是来得太早了？
What do you think about Bitcoin dominance and alt season and whether it's here or whether it's coming too early if it is here?
对。
Yep.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得大家已经开始有些既视感了，你知道，看到市场上那些波动。
I think people are getting some flashbacks, you know, already with a lot of the the moves that we're seeing out there.
而且我觉得现在停下来想一想，说等等，也是合理的。
And I think it's fair to sort of pause and say, wait a minute.
我们是不是走得太快、太急了？
Are we are we moving too fast, too quick here?
我不觉得实际情况是这样。
I don't think that's what's what's playing out.
我觉得真正发生的是更多从情绪角度来看的。
I think what's really happening is more from a sentiment perspective.
市场一直在下跌，你知道，我们看到了不少分化，但总体来说，自去年十月以来市场一直处于下行通道。
Markets have been going down only for you know, we've seen quite a bit of dispersion, but broadly, the market's been in a downward channel here since last October.
而我觉得看到这些波动，你知道，从低点大幅反弹，让大家很兴奋。
And I think just seeing these moves, you know, pretty significant moves off the lows has people excited.
而且我不认为现在有新的人进入加密货币领域，即使我看我们有很多关于pump.fund上发生的非常棒的数据，而且pump.fund上确实有很多活动。
And I don't what I don't think is happening is, like, new people are coming into crypto right now even when I look at we have a lot of, like, really fantastic data on what's happening on pump.fund, and there's been quite a bit of activity on pump.fund.
但我们看的时候，那个用户是谁呢？
But when we look at, like, who who is that user?
是新用户吗？
Is it a new user?
还是老用户？
Is it a recurring user?
还是已经在那个平台上的人？
Is it somebody who's already been on that platform?
大部分都是已经在那类平台上活跃的人。
It's mostly people that have already been, you know, engaging with those platforms.
所以我觉得现在并没有真正把新的资金和新的资金流带入加密货币市场。
So I don't think we're bringing, like, new capital and new capital flows really into the the crypto right now.
我觉得现在发生的是，这些资产的基础价格重新定价了。
I think what's happening is, like, the base asset of some of these things has repriced.
SOL涨了。
SOL is up.
大家看到SOL涨了。
People see SOL go up.
他们就去这些应用，或者看到ETH涨了。
They go on to these apps or they see ETH go up.
他们就去这些应用。
They go on to these apps.
所以我觉得这就是现在正在发生的一部分。
So I think that's part of what's playing out here.
我们看一些山寨季的指标，根本看不出现在像是山寨季的高峰期什么的。
When we look at, like, sort of some of these alt season indicators, nothing looks like it's even remotely, you know, like, at, like, a peak alt season or anything like that.
比特币的市占率看起来还在上升。
Bitcoin dominance looks like it wants it wants to go up.
当比特币市占率上升时，意味着每有一美元流入加密生态系统，超过50%都进了比特币。
When Bitcoin dominance is rising, that means that for every dollar coming into the crypto ecosystem, you know, more than 50% of that is going into Bitcoin.
所以即使山寨币和所有这些从低点反弹的走势，比特币实际上在资金流中占据的份额比整个生态系统的其他部分还要多。
So even with altcoins and all these moves we've seen off the lows, Bitcoin has been actually capturing more of the capital flow than the rest of the ecosystem.
所以，是的，确实可以说市场有点过热了，而且我觉得现在有一些新的社交应用，我们待会儿也会聊到，人们在上面晒自己的盈亏，一切都非常透明。
So, yes, you know, certainly fair to to kind of point out that things are getting a little frothy, and I think there's these new social apps out there, which we we'll talk about as well, where people are sharing the P and Ls, and everything's very transparent.
所以大家都能看到这些。
And so people can see all of this.
我觉得这也是影响市场情绪的一部分原因。
Think that's part of what's what's playing into some of the sentiment as well.
好的。
Okay.
所以你确实相信山寨季这个概念。
So you do believe in the concept of alt season.
你不认为现在就是山寨季。
You don't believe it's here.
你觉得山寨季可能会晚些时候来，但在牛市初期，比特币的主导地位得先涨一波。
You think alt season may come later, but that Bitcoin dominance has to have a run first in the early bull phase.
你觉得会是这样。我们来聊聊这个情绪变化吧，因为它也是可以量化的。
You think that's how it's gonna Let's shake let's talk about that sentiment chain change because it is also measurable.
我们刚刚看到比特币恐惧与贪婪指数进入了绿色区域。
We just saw the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index just move into green.
那就是贪婪。
That is greed.
我们现在已经从恐惧阶段——我们之前一直处于恐惧状态——过渡到了三十日移动平均线上的贪婪阶段。
We are now moved we have moved from fear, which we've been in a fear regime for a while, into the greed phase on the thirty day moving average.
你说这与我们在2023年初早期牛市阶段观察到的现象一致。
You say this aligns with what we observed at the start of the early bull phase in early twenty twenty three.
是的。
Yep.
好的。
Okay.
所以2023年出现了情绪转向贪婪的情况。
So 2023 saw a sentiment shift to greed.
现在我们看到加密货币市场的情绪也在转向贪婪。
We're seeing a sentiment shift to greed now in crypto.
对。
Yep.
有意思的是，你说得对，加密货币从十月份开始就没怎么涨过，所以这可能是现有的加密社区持有者，感受到那种如释重负的感觉，天哪，我的投资组合终于涨了。
What's interesting is, yes, you're right, crypto hasn't seen much green since October, and so this could be existing crypto community holders, like, feeling that relief of, oh my god, portfolio's going up.
那感觉是不是很棒？
Doesn't that feel wonderful?
我还想补充一点，从十月到现在，他们不仅没看到加密货币上涨，还看到其他人的投资组合都在涨。
I would also add, from October about till now, not only did they not see crypto green, they saw everyone else's portfolio Right.
变绿了。
Turn green.
对。
Right.
所以他们看到人工智能创新高，看到纳斯达克，看到标普，这也会让投资者感到压力。
So they saw AI all time highs, they saw NASDAQ, they saw S and P, And that starts to wear on an investor too.
但这次进入贪婪区域的速度很快。
But this is a fast swing into the greed territory.
这说明了什么？在当前这个市场阶段，它又告诉了你什么？
What what does that show you and what does that tell you at this part of the market?
这挺有意思的。
It's it's it's interesting.
其实我对恐惧和贪婪指数并不是特别看重。
I mean, I don't put a ton of weight onto fear and greed index.
我会参考一下，然后结合到我们正在做的事情里。
It's something I'll look at and fold it into some you know, what we're doing.
但有趣的是，恐惧和贪婪指数有时候会失灵。比如你可能处于极度恐惧的状态，但市场却出现了一波暴涨后的顶部，大量清算发生，市场涨得很高，但大家心里其实很害怕。
But what's interesting about the fear and greed index is you can be, like, in extreme extreme fear and be in, like, a blow off top scenario where you just get a liquidation and the markets are way up, but people people are scared.
所以，在牛市狂热的时候，你反而可能感到恐惧。
So you can be have fear when you're in a, you know, bull market frenzy.
反过来，现在的情况是贪婪，但我们其实还处于一个偏熊市的结构中，我仍然认为我们还在熊市里。
And then you can also have greed, which is where we're at right now, in a sort of more of a bear market structure, which I still think still think we're in.
我们只是刚刚从低点反弹了一些。
We've just sort of reversed out of sort of the the lows.
所以你觉得它太不稳定了，不太值得参考吗？
So you think it's, like, too jittery or something to, like, put much stock in?
它其实就是在衡量市场的心理状态，而人总是容易走极端。
It's kinda just measuring the, you know, the psychology of the market a little bit, and, you know, humans just tend to overshoot everything.
我们总是跌得太低，然后又涨得太高。
We get too you know, we go too low, and then we go too high.
所以现在可能有点过高了，但2023年初的时候我们也是这样。
So we're, like, too high right now for probably where we should be, but we were also doing the same thing back in in early twenty twenty three.
所以，是的。
So Yeah.
你知道，如果我回头看看2023年，我会发现，等等。
You know, if I was if I went back and looked at '23 and I could see that, oh, wait a minute.
比如，我们当时其实处于恐惧状态，人们还在害怕，但比特币却在慢慢上涨。
Like, we were actually in fear when we were coming out and people were still scared, but Bitcoin was grinding up.
也许我会对现在看到的情况有点犹豫，但我觉得这基本符合我的预期。
Maybe I would get have a little pause with what I'm seeing right now, but I think it's pretty much on par with what what I would expect.
我们来聊聊链上数据，也许可以像你说的那样，和2023年初那些投机热潮做个对比。
Let's talk about On Chain, and maybe we can compare that, as you said you wanted to do, to early twenty twenty three when we saw these pockets of speculation.
现在，我们稍后会详细讨论，过去几周甚至一个月左右，Robinhood Chain表现非常强劲。
So right now, and we'll talk about this more in a little bit, for the past few weeks, month or so, Robinhood Chain has been on an absolute tear.
你知道，社交消费型交易，也就是你所说的快速DeFi，表现非常出色。
You know, social consumer trading, what you call fast DeFi, has been doing incredibly well.
你正在看到链上活动的早期牛市迹象。
You're seeing early bull signs of on chain activity.
我们都会谈到这些。
We'll talk about all of that.
但今天看报告的人，明显能看到一些投机行为，有些贪婪，对吧。
But people coming into the report today, they clearly see some speculation out there, some greed, let's say Yeah.
在市场中。
In the markets.
这一波和2023年初的牛市初期相比怎么样？
How does this episode compare to 2023 early bull?
那时候我们是不是也看到了一些投机现象？
Were we seeing pockets of speculation at that time?
确实有。
We were.
你知道吗？
You know?
我觉得我们可能忘了，但确实有。
I think we forget it, but but we were.
而且差不多是从那时候开始的。比特币在2022年11月FTX事件后触底，然后有几个月的时间，大家还在烟雾散去的过程中，都在琢磨接下来会往哪个方向走。
And it kinda started so Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022 after FTX, And we had a few months of sort of people kind of the smoke was clearing, and people are figuring out, you know, where what what where we're gonna go next.
然后我们开始看到投机活动，大概从二月份开始，尤其是Blur。币圈的老玩家可能还记得，Blur当时确实抢占了OpenSea的市场，接管了NFT市场。
And we started seeing, like, speculation starting in February, really, with with Blur, and people might crypto natives might remember, Blur actually captured, you know, OpenSea's market captured the NFT market and took over from OpenSea.
那大概是在二月份左右。
This was in February or so.
他们推出了一个新产品，围绕这个产品有很多投机炒作。
They they launched a new a new product, and there was a lot of speculation around that.
其实没持续多久。
Didn't really last.
对吧？
Right?
但那时候的投机挺有意思的，能看出牛市刚开始没多久。
But there was interesting speculation for how kind of early in the bull market we were.
大家可能还记得，回到那段时间。
People might recall, you know, this you're going back to this period.
那时候二层代币刚出来。
This is when the l 2 tokens first came out.
比如Arbitrum、Optimism，围绕它们有不少投机。
So Arbitrum, optimism, there was speculation around that.
那些还挺有意思的。
Those were pretty interesting.
当时那件事确实挺有意思的。
That was a pretty interesting thing at the time.
当然。
Sure.
当时Bankless确实报道了很多以太坊生态里发生的事情。
Bankless was was covering a lot of what was happening in the Ethereum ecosystem at that time.
那些代币一出来市值就很高，发布之后还一路涨。
Those tokens were coming out to pretty large market caps and and rallying after the ice after they they released those.
所以那时候想投机的人特别多。
So there was there was plenty of people that wanted to speculate at that time.
我们大概在2023年3月经历了比特币有史以来最疯狂的投机期，就是Ordinals那会儿。
We had, like, probably the most speculative period we've ever seen on Bitcoin back in March 2023 with ordinals.
那会儿就是NFT投机。
This was, like, NFT speculation.
人们用比特币的区块空间来做交易以外的事情，这挺有意思的，也引发了不少争议。
People built using Bitcoin block space for things other than just transactions, which was interesting, caused a lot of controversy.
那段时间比特币的交易费创了历史新高。
We saw the most transaction fees ever on Bitcoin, you know, during this period.
然后四月份Pepe上线，市值达到了16亿美元。
And then we had Pepe launch in April, got to a $1,600,000,000 market cap.
我的意思是，对于当时的市场来说，那真的是一个非常非常大的市值。
I mean, that's a massive, massive market cap for, you know, the market at that time.
所以，你知道，当时就有这些事情在发生，而且这些可能会开始产生财富效应，从而可能引领周期的下一个阶段。
So, you know, you kinda had this stuff going on, and, like, this starts to create the the wealth effects potentially that can sort of lead to the next phase of the cycle.
而且我觉得关键的一点是，所有这些事情都发生在比特币之前。
And I think the key thing is just, all this stuff was happening well before Bitcoin.
在这一切发生的时候，比特币的交易价格在2万到2.5万到3万之间。
Bitcoin's trading at 20 between 25 to 30 k as all of this is happening.
我们知道Solana有一次大规模的上涨，实际上是从2023年底开始的。
We know Solana had a massive move that started really, like, in kinda late twenty twenty three.
所以，你知道，我觉得我们还在那之前，那种，你懂的，我们还没看到那些L1有什么大动作。
So, you know, I think we're before, like, that type of you know, we haven't really seen the l ones make a move.
我们现在看到的社交交易领域的情况，我觉得看起来和其他一些事情很相似。
We're seeing kind of what I think is happening in social trading right now just kind of looks similar to some of the other things.
我觉得你看到这个列表的时候，可能会说，等等，迈克。
I think when you look at this list, you might say, well, wait a minute, Mike.
这些好像都没能持续多久。
Like, none of these things really lasted.
对吧？
Right?
这些都是那种来得快去得也快的东西，没什么持久力。
This this was all kind of, like, quick quick stuff that didn't really have a ton of staying power.
你可能会这么说。
You might say that.
对。
Yeah.
而且，这就是一个问题，你知道，我们得看看PONS这些现在的情况。
And that's that's one thing, like, you know, we get to we get to what's happening with, like, PONS and stuff.
我觉得这些具体的应用和我看到的情况有点不一样。
I think it's a little different with these specific apps and what what I'm seeing.
但就人们想回到链上这个愿望来说，价格在涨，大家想投机，我觉得这在牛市初期是很符合预期的。
But in terms of just, like, the desire for people to come back on chain, prices are going up, people wanna speculate, I think this is pretty consistent with what we would expect, you know, in the early stages of a of a bull market.
对。
Yeah.
确实。
That's true.
总的来说，人们回头看不会觉得2023年是加密特别牛的一年，但确实有很多投机的小热点。
I guess broad strokes, people don't look back and think of 2023 as a particularly bullish year for crypto, and yet there were all of these pockets of speculation Yeah.
有些资产表现很好，比如Blur、二层网络、Ordinals、Pepe，还有World Coin上线，然后又有Friend Tech，那整个2023年夏天都是个事儿。
Of assets doing very well, like Blur and and the l twos and Ordinals and Pepe, even World Coin launched, and then you had Friend Tech, and that was a whole thing, know, summer of twenty twenty three.
后来还有JITO和TIA的空投。
And then later, the the JITO and TIA airdrops.
在牛市早期，这些投机热点轮番出现，几乎贯穿了整整一年，然后逐渐进入加密领域。
You almost got a full year in the early bull of these speculative pockets that shifted around and moved into crypto.
好，那我们聊聊现在这个似乎很活跃的投机热点吧，我想知道你觉得它会不会特别持久，但我们可以从那些可能还没用过它的人的角度来聊。
Well, let's talk about the speculative pocket that seems alive and well right now, and I I'd like to know if you think this is particularly durable, but let's talk about it in in the context of maybe people haven't used it before.
他们不知道发生了什么。
They don't know what's happening.
Robinhood的收入简直暴涨，主要靠代币化股票，我觉得还有迷因经济。
Robinhood is on an absolute tear in terms of the revenue it is generating, and it's primarily because of tokenized stocks and, I believe, also, the meme economy.
一个叫PONS的核心资产和迷因币发射平台，似乎是这些活动的焦点之一。
And a central asset and meme launchpad called PONS seems to be at the the focal point of some of this activity.
对。
Yep.
我知道这是TDR投资组合里的资产。
I know this is a a TDR portfolio asset.
我觉得现在可以这么说了。
I think we can say that now.
它就在投资组合里。
It's in the portfolio.
你公开了这个消息，而且你一直持有它，我觉得这笔投资做得相当不错。
You're coming out with that, and you've had it in the portfolio and I think are doing quite well on that investment.
先跟我们说说PONS的情况吧，然后我们可能再对比一下Solana、PUMP以及那个生态。
Tell us what's going on with PONS first, and then maybe we'll do a contrast with Solana, with PUMP, and that ecosystem as well.
对。
Yeah.
所以，你知道，其实就回顾过去几个月，Robinhood Chain在七月初上线了。
So, you know, just just going back really just the last few months here, Robinhood Chain has has launched it launched in early July.
很多开发者涌入了那个生态，我觉得很多以太坊的人也很乐意去试试那些在Robinhood Chain上推出的应用和各种东西。
A lot of developers flocked to that ecosystem, and I think a lot of sort of Ethereum folks have been, you know, happy to kinda try the apps and the different things that are being launched on on Robinhood Chain.
我们也知道他们在做很多股票代币的事情，所以现在Robinhood Chain周围有很多能量。
We also know that they're doing a lot of stuff with stock tokens, so there's there's kind of a lot of, like, energy around Robinhood Chain right now.
所以我们一直在观察这个，我们对这个周期的PUMP有自己的看法。
So we've kinda just been observing this a little bit, and we have our thesis for PUMP for this cycle.
所以我特别关注Launchpads上发生的事情。
And so I've been particularly interested in what was happening with on Launchpads.
这是最早出现的应用之一，我觉得，我们几乎立刻看到了五六个这样的应用冒出来。
This was one of the first, I would say, apps that started to we started we saw five or six of these come out almost immediately.
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对我来说，这挺有意思的。
And that to me, you know, is kind of interesting.
这开始有点像我们过去在DeFi里看到的情况，甚至追溯到DEX刚出现、Uniswap刚上线那会儿，一个项目出来了，跑通了，然后马上就会冒出五六个类似的。
It kinda starting to it starts to look a little bit like what we've seen in the past in DeFi, you know, even going back to the early days of, like, you know, when DEXes were launching, when Uniswap was launching, one of them comes out, it works, and you'd see, like, five or six of them pop up immediately.
他们都在分叉协议。
They're forking the protocol.
然后试着加上一些不同的功能，想方设法把用户抢过来。
They're trying to bolt on a few different features, trying to vampire attack users.
这就是加密货币圈里会发生的事。
Like, this is what happens in crypto.
竞争极其激烈。
It's incredibly competitive.
我觉得，我们在评估PUMP基金时，最大的风险可能就是这种情况会发生。
And the sort of probably the biggest risk, would say, with PUMP fund when we were, like, underwriting that is, like, this type of thing could happen.
对吧？
Right?
可能会有别的应用出现，它只是稍微更具病毒式传播性。
There could be something else that comes along that's able to it's just, a little bit more viral of an app.
它能够吸引用户。
It's able to capture the users.
而且，你知道，这就是投资加密货币的挑战，因为用户的切换成本非常低，每个应用和协议都会竭尽全力，试图通过激励措施从不同地方拉拢用户。
And, you know, this is the challenge of of investing in crypto because switching costs are so low for users, and every app and protocol is gonna do everything they can to try to, like, pull users from different places using incentives.
所以这非常具有挑战性。
So it's very challenging.
我认为，对开发者来说，这也是一个非常具有挑战性的环境。
It's a very challenging environment for builders, I would say, as well.
但我们很早就看到了PONS的情况，几周前我们最终购买了它的代币。
But we we we saw what was happening with PONS pretty early on, and we ended up buying the token of, you know, a few weeks ago.
虽然只占投资组合的一小部分，但它涨得太多了，实际上已经成为一个相当重要的仓位。
A small percentage of the portfolio, but it's gone up so much that it's actually become a pretty meaningful position.
迈克，你能说说你买PONS代币时的市值大概是多少，现在又是多少吗？
Are you able to say, Mike, well, like, what price point you bought the PONS token in terms of, like, market cap, and what is it now?
当时市值大概4500万左右，我们买它主要是因为它的上涨空间，因为它已经显示出能产生相当高的收入。
It was, like, 45,000,000, you know, market cap or so, and we bought it because of, basically, the upside there because it was already showing that it could produce pretty high high revenues.
它当时正在获得市场的关注。
It was getting the the the narrative.
你可以开始看到有一点社区在形成，公平发行，代币经济非常强劲，80%的回购，而且我们对这个领域很有信心。
You could start to see there was a little bit of a community forming, had a fair launch, really strong token economics, 80% buybacks, and we feel strongly about this sector.
就像我们看到的，我觉得这仍然是非常实验性的。
Like, the what we're seeing, I would say this is still very experimental.
但因为在2026年这个熊市里，PUMP BUN的表现，你知道，当时很少有加密用户还在，PUMP每天仍然能赚大约一百万美元。对。
But because of, like, the performance of PUMP BUN over the basically over 2026 in this bear market when, you know, very few crypto users were still around, PUMP was still doing roughly a million dollars a day Right.
收入。
In revenue.
所以我不得不尊重这一点，并且说，这可能不像我们过去看到的其他一些东西那样短期，因为我们有证据表明，即使在熊市里，人们也喜欢用PONS FON。
And so I I have to sort of, like, respect that and say, like, this is probably not as sort of short term as some of these other things we've seen in the past because we have proof that, you know, people like using PONS FON even even in a bear market.
所以，总之，我们说，你知道吗？
So so, anyways, we we said, you know what?
这基本上就是我们的这个论点正在起作用。
This is sort of like this thesis that we have is working.
现在它在另一条链上也起作用了，那条链看起来在吸引用户，不过并不是真的从Solana那边抢用户，这个我们可以聊聊。
It's now working on another chain that looks to be attracting like, it's not really, like, pulling users from Solana, which we can talk about.
我觉得PONS所做的就是扩大了整个市场。
It's it's just sort of, like, broadening the market is what I thought PONS was doing.
所以我们说，我们需要在这里有敞口。
And so we said, you know, we need to have exposure here.
这相当于在我们已有的论点上加倍下注。
This is sort of doubling down on this thesis we already have.
是的，这个仓位在短时间内变动很大。
And, yeah, the position moved a lot in in a short period of time.
这在加密货币领域是常有的事。
This is this happens in crypto.
你明白吧？
You know?
有这个东西是好事，但接下来你得开始干活了，因为你要保护好这个仓位，并且真正理解它。
It's it's a nice thing to have, but then you gotta you gotta start getting to work because you gotta protect that position and really understand it.
所以，这周的报告很大程度上就是我在梳理这个过程，因为现在事情发展得很快。
So, really, a lot of the report this week is me sort of going through this process now that this is happening really quickly.
我们需要弄清楚这可能会怎么发展，我一直在试着问自己关于这个特定领域、这些特定应用的问题，并且研究用户基础和这里正在发生的事情，试图找到一些信号，看看这可能会怎么演变。
We need to understand how how this could potentially play out, and I've been trying to just ask myself questions about this particular sector, these particular apps, and looking at the user bases and what's happening here to try to get a signal as to how this could could start to shake out.
对。
Yeah.
这里有一些有趣的事情。
Some interesting things here.
所以你是在市值大概四千万到五千万的时候买入的。
So you you brought it at around a, you know, 40 to 50,000,000 market cap.
它最高涨到了六亿七千六百万。
It went as high as 676,000,000.
是的。
Yep.
现在仍然超过5亿美元。
That is now still over $500,000,000.
而且有一些实际收入，总费用达到1亿美元。是的。
And on some real revenue here, so a 100,000,000 in total fees Yeah.
协议收入有2400万美元，其中80%用于PONS回购，所以实际上是一种回购加销毁的模式。
And 24,000,000 in protocol revenue with 80% of that used for PONS buyback, so there's actually kind of a buyback and and burn type of model.
我觉得这里有一个有趣的见解，因为我想你花了很多精力去思考你在PON相对于PUMP的投资，并重新评估这两者。
I thought one of the insights that was interesting here is because I think you were doing a lot to sort of think through your investment in PON relative to PUMP, and kind of reunderrate both of those.
你得出的结论是，PONS实际上并没有从PUMP那里抢走太多东西。
And you came away with this idea that PONS is not actually taking away from PUMP so much.
你在报告里有这么一句话。
You had this line from the report.
这主要是PONS的以太坊用户，他们上一轮没有参与pump fund的迷因币狂热。
It's mostly, this is PONS, Ethereum folks who did not participate in pump fund meme coin mania last cycle.
所以你看到的几乎不一定是外部加密群体，而是内部加密群体中那些之前没有参与Solana迷因币经济、没有玩PUMP的人，现在开始进场了。
So you're almost seeing not necessarily an outside crypto cohort, but you are seeing an internal crypto cohort that had not participated and played in the Solana meme coin economy on the PUMP side of things now entering.
所以还是加密货币圈内的人，但也是有点不同的群体。
So still crypto native, but also a bit of a different cohort.
我理解得对吗？
So did I get that right?
那这让你怎么想？
And what does that make you think?
这是否让你觉得PONS和PUMP都能在牛市初期以及接下来的几个月和几年里表现不错？
Does that make you think that both PONS and PUMP can have a good run-in kind of the early bull phase and and on the next few months and and few years in crypto?
对。
Yeah.
这就是我目前对这个的看法。
That's that's kind of my read on this right now.
而且，你知道，当我开始看到PONS的数字飙升时，我做的第一件事就是为此建了一个仪表盘。
And, you know, what I've the first thing I did when I started to see PONS numbers, you know, shooting up, we built a dashboard for this.
我想我需要做那个。
I think I need to make that.
我觉得现在可能是私密的。
I think it might be private right now.
我会把它公开给大家看。
I'll make that public for people.
我们建了一个仪表盘，然后开始观察PONS增长时PUMP fun上发生了什么。
We built a dashboard, and then we started to look at what was happening on PUMP fun, you know, as PONS was was growing.
我看到的是，PUMP fun的所有基本面指标都在上升，对吧，在这段时间里。
And what I've seen is, like, PUMP fun all of the fundamentals on PUMP fun are inflecting up, right, during this this period.
这让我很感兴趣，因为PUMP fun之前也遇到过挑战。
And this is interesting to me because PUMP FUN has been challenged before.
这发生在大约一年前，当时Radium推出了一个叫Launch Let's Bonk的发射平台，它立刻吸引了很多PUMP fun上的创作者。
This happened a little over a year ago where Radium launched a launch pad called Launch Let's Bonk, and it immediately and they were able to attract a lot of the creators on pump fund.
这是在Solana上，所以有点不同。
This was on Solana, so it's a little bit different.
但他们基本上把大部分的基本面都抓住了。
But they were able to, like, essentially capture most of the fundamentals.
Pump Fun 上大部分的经济活动立刻就转移到了 Let's Bonk。
Most of the economics that were on pump fund immediately went to let let's bonk.
Pump Fun 的基本面数据急剧下滑，代币发行量、交易量、收入都大幅下降。
PUMP funds fundamentals came off a cliff, token launches, volumes, revenues.
这种情况持续了大约一个月，然后 Pump Fun 基本上又夺回了市场，现在重新占据了90%的市场份额，而且过去一年左右一直如此。
It lasted for about a month, and then PUMP fund, you know, basically regained that and now has back to a 90% market share and has been, you know, for the last year or so.
所以，我们以前也见过这种情况。
So, you know, we've seen this before.
Pump Fun 之前在 Solana 上应对过威胁，并且能够挺过来。
PUMP FON has dealt with threats on Solana before and has been able to come out of that.
现在发生的情况，我觉得，基本上就像你说的，这不是同一批用户。
What's happening now is, I think, you know, what basically, what you said there where this is not the same user.
我不认为这是从 PONS 转到 PONS 的用户。
I don't I don't believe that's on PONS that's going over to PONS.
这更多是新用户，是在这个周期阶段参与这些市场的加密货币原住民，可能还有更年轻的一批加密货币用户，他们可能对加密货币领域比较新，而且主要使用移动设备，这非常有意思。
It's really more new people, people that are crypto native that are involved in these markets at this stage of the cycle and possibly, like, you know, sort of a younger kind of, like, cohort of crypto users, maybe a little bit newer to the space that are mobile that are mobile first, which is very interesting.
我觉得这轮周期有个新变化，就是现在通过像FOMO、Robinhood Wallet这些应用，可以很快地设置钱包，用Apple Pay充值，然后马上就能参与交易。
This is new for this cycle, I would say, that we have this mobile onboarding experience now through these apps like FOMO, through Robin Robinhood Wallet, where you can sort of, like, get a wallet set up, like, very quickly fund it with Apple Pay, and you're in the trenches, like, immediately.
以前的话，你知道，任何在加密圈待过一段时间的人都知道，通常要麻烦得多。
Like, you used to have to you know, anybody who's crypto nano has been around for a while, you know, it's it's usually a lot harder than that.
风险也大得多。
There's way more risk.
还要跨链。
There's bridging.
还要管理钱包和助记词。
There's, you know, managing wallets and seed phrases.
这些现在都被简化了，这些应用直接就能用，而且还有点病毒式传播的趋势。
All these things have been abstracted away, and these apps just work, and they're kind of going viral a little bit.
现在有很多人在用这些，而且我注意到以太坊生态里也有不少人在用。那些上一轮周期可能对Solana上这类活动嗤之以鼻的人，现在也开始接受了。
There's a lot of people using these, and and I'm noticing lots of people in the Ethereum ecosystem are are using these People that maybe were frowning upon this type of activity on Solana last cycle have kinda come around to it.
所以我觉得，对我来说，现在发生的是市场在扩大。
So I think this is to me, like, what's happening is the market is broadening.
这不是吸血鬼攻击，PONS并没有在抢走那些想参与这些活动的投机人群。
It's not a it's not a vampire attack where PONS is stealing, like, this little subset of speculative activity that wants to participate on these things.
我觉得这更像是可触及市场的扩大，这才是真正在发生的事情。
It's sort of a broadening of the sort of addressable market, I think, is what's happening.
所以……
So
你觉得PUMP会在Robinhood Chain上部署吗？
Do you think PUMP will just deploy on Robinhood Chain?
我有个问题，他们怎么会错过这个机会呢？
And I must have a question here is, like, how could they have missed this opportunity?
对吧？
Right?
是因为Solana虚拟机和以太坊虚拟机之间，也就是SVM和EVM之间，存在一道鸿沟吗？还是你觉得PUMP基金现在就是那种“哎呀，糟了”的状态？
Is it just because there is still a like, there's the Solana virtual machine, and then there's the Ethereum virtual machine, SVM versus EVM, there's kind of a chasm, or do you just expect, like, you know, PUMP fund is just kinda being like, oh, shoot.
我们错过了这个机会，但我们会部署到那边去。
We missed this, but we're gonna deploy there.
我的意思是，他们会跟着用户走。
I mean, they will go where the users will go.
对。
Right.
我觉得他们会。
I think they will.
那会成功吗？
Will that be successful?
很难说。
Hard to say.
你知道，这正在发生。
You know, it's this is happening.
我的意思是，想象一下，你知道，我光是管理一个投资组合就已经很担心了。
I mean, imagining you know, I'm worried about this just kinda managing a portfolio.
想象你是PUMP FON团队，你得这么快地应对这些事情，还要搞清楚这东西能不能持续。
Imagine you're the PUMP FON team, and you have to respond to these things this fast and figure out, is this thing sustainable?
他们也在做和我一样的评估，想搞清楚，这是新用户吗？
They're doing the same assessment that I'm doing trying to figure out, is this a new user?
我们需要过去那边吗？
Do we need to go over here?
我们需要部署吗？
Do we need to deploy?
那要花我们多长时间？
How long is that gonna take us?
以太坊生态会对一个从Solana过来的应用友好吗？
Are we is the Ethereum ecosystem gonna be hospitable to a Solana app coming coming over there?
所以我觉得这里的情况很有意思，而且我认为PUMP基金可以在那边推出。
So I think it's a very interesting setup here, and I think PUMP fund can can launch over there.
他们很可能会这么做。
They probably will.
他们已经证明了，用户在哪里，他们就会去哪里。
They we they have demonstrated that they will go to wherever the user is.
他们其实最早是在以太坊生态里做的，后来才转到Solana。
They actually started on it in the Ethereum ecosystem before they went to salon originally.
所以我觉得看看他们下一步会怎么走会很有意思。
So I think it's gonna be interesting to see what their next move is.
我们在报告里稍微聊了一下，你知道，现在肯定会有很多类似的竞争对手冒出来。
We talked a little bit in the report just about, like, you know, there's gonna be a ton of these, you know, competitors popping up now.
还有一些其他的启动平台，更专注于股票对。
There's there's other launch pads that are sort of focusing more on stock pairs.
这些在Solana上也在冒出来。
There's these are popping up on Solana.
在Robinhood Chain上也有。
They're also popping up on on Robinhood Chain.
所以一旦某个东西在加密领域行得通，大家都会去复制。
And so this is once something works in crypto, it everyone tries to build it.
我知道。
I know.
这个动态真的很有意思。
It's very the the the dynamic is very interesting.
你想想看，PUMP肯定在盯着PONS，心里想，好吧。
You have to you like, I'm sure PUMP is looking at PONS and being like, okay.
我们也想要一些那样的东西，调整他们的计划，制定一些新计划。
Like, we would love some of that, like, altering their plans, devising some plans.
还有Coinbase的Base，他们一直在做二层网络的事，做了多久了？
Also, you have Base from Coinbase who's been here doing the l two thing for what?
大概两年了吧？
Like, two years?
对。
Yeah.
他们投入了很多时间，现在看着Robinhood Chain火起来，心里想，那本来可能是我们的。
And really investing the time, and they're looking over at Robinhood Chain taking off and being like, that could have been us.
为什么不是我们呢？
Why wasn't that us?
对。
Yep.
而且我知道你这周其实会发布一份报告，我很期待读到。
And I know you have a report coming out this week, actually, which I'm excited to read.
我记得是周五，Coinbase 的，你会把它和 Coin 股票对比，还有 HUD，我觉得这会很有意思。
I think on Friday, Coinbase, and you're gonna contrast that with the coin stock versus HUD, I believe, which is gonna be interesting to read.
但没错。
But Yep.
这里有很多动态在变化。
There's a lot of shifting dynamics here.
我想再问你一个问题，是给听众里那些 ETH 多头和持有者的。
I guess one other question for you for some of the the ETH bulls and holders in the audience.
你觉得 Robinhood 的这些活动对 ETH 有好处吗，还是说这完全是另一回事？
Do you think any of this Robinhood activity is good for ETH, or do you think it's kind of a totally separate thing?
我觉得这对 ETH 是有好处的。
I think it is good for ETH.
其实我最近一直在想ETH，你知道，自从这波行情开始之后，我确实觉得这对ETH是好事。
I've been thinking a lot about ETH, actually, you know, since this activity has has been starting, and I do think it's good for ETH.
我觉得看到以太坊社区参与进来、支持这件事，真的很棒。
I think it's great just to see, like, the Ethereum community, like, kind of getting involved with this, supporting this.
ETH表现好对整个加密市场都很重要，我觉得这是一个很有意思的局面。
ETH ETH doing well is, like, very important to to crypto broadly, and I think this is an interesting setup.
我上周发了一条推文，大概意思是，为什么Robinhood现在不买ETH呢？
I put out a tweet last week sort of proposing, like, the idea of, like, why would Robinhood not buy ETH right now?
对吧？
Right?
那条推文确实引起了不少关注，但评论区里也有很多来自加密圈内人的反对意见，我觉得挺有意思的。
Which got got a decent amount of attention and a lot of pushback actually from crypto natives, like, in the comments, which I thought was kind of interesting.
大多数人还是喜欢的，但也有一些反对的声音。而且你知道，Robinhood Chain现在势头很猛。
People broadly liked it, but there was some pushback, And, you know, you can see this momentum that's happening with Robinhood Chain.
Base暂时失去了这个势头，我们得看看最终会怎么发展。
Base has has sort of lost this for now, and we're gonna see kind of where this ultimately goes.
但我一直在想的一个问题是，ETH在什么情况下能跑赢比特币。
But one thing that, like, been trying to think about, what are the scenarios that ETH, you know, just outperforms Bitcoin.
上个周期ETH并没有跑赢比特币。
ETH did not outperform Bitcoin last cycle.
在什么情况下我们会看到完全不同的局面？
What are the scenarios where we see something that's just, like, very different?
看起来会和上个周期大不一样。
It looks very different from last cycle.
我觉得现在开始看到的情况就是，二层网络越来越火，Robinhood Chain，也许Base还藏着什么大招。
And I think the scenarios are kind of what we're starting to see where you have l twos getting lots of traction, Robinhood Chain, maybe Base has something up its sleeve.
我听说今天那边有个迷因币要上线。
There's a there's a meme coin launching I I heard over there today.
是那个笔记本电脑币吗？
Is this the laptop coin?
这个我们可以聊聊。
We can talk about that.
天哪。
Oh, god.
好吧。
Okay.
但是，你知道，也许Base有什么妙招，但这正是ETH的看涨理由，因为有机构在上面建设。
But, you know, maybe Base has something up their sleeve, but this is this is kind of the bull case for ETH where you have institutions building on it.
比如，还有什么我们意想不到的事情会发生呢？
Like, what what what could really come that we're not expecting?
也许就是Robinhood说，嘿，我们要和以太坊社区站在一起。
Maybe it is Robinhood hey, we're gonna align ourselves with the Ethereum community.
我们要去买一些ETH。
We're gonna go out and buy some ETH.
我们在向以太坊社区发出信号，我们想在这里建设。
We're signaling to the Ethereum community that we wanna build here.
我们想和大家长期合作，我们会把这项资产放到我们的资产负债表上，因为我们长期看好ETH。
We wanna align with everybody long term, and we're gonna put this asset on our balance sheet because we believe in ETH long
我觉得这确实很有意思，而且这也说明了为什么实际参与者是谁在PONS Robinhood财富效应中非常重要，因为根据参与者的不同，如果他们在Robinhood Chain上赚了钱，那就会决定他们把这些财富投到哪里去。
I mean, that is interesting, interesting, and and that is why it does matter a lot who the actual participants are in the PONS Robinhood Wealth Effect, because depending on the participants, if they get wealthy on Robinhood Chain, we'll dictate where they actually deploy that wealth.
如果是PUMP基金，那很可能就会投到SOL代币，也就是Solana生态里。
And if it's PUMP fund, it's gonna probably be in the SOL token, the Solana ecosystem.
如果是EVM，是以太坊的人，那可能会回流到像ETH这样的资产，然后
If it's EVM and it's Ethereum people, it might fall back on an asset like ETH, and
对。
Right.
对我来说很明显，如果Robinhood出来说，我们要做这个。
It seems so obvious to me that if Robinhood came out and said, we're gonna do this.
这就是我们这么做的原因。
This is why we're doing it.
我们认为这对我们的业务有战略意义。
We we think it's strategic for our business.
我们认为这个资产有战略价值，而且我们想长期发出一个信号。
We want we think the asset's strategic, and we want a signal long term.
他们会得到一场免费的大规模营销活动。
They're gonna get a free massive free marketing campaign.
是的，他们已经在为正在建设的东西获得很多关注，但他们还会得到更多。
Mean, yes, they're already getting a lot of attention for for what they're building, but they're gonna they're gonna get that.
然后如果ETH因此上涨，你刚才提到的就非常有趣，因为你刚刚创造了一个财富效应，所有持有ETH的以太坊加密原生用户，他们的财富会流入Robinhood的产品。
And then if ETH runs on behind that, you you what you just mentioned is very interesting because you just created a wealth effect of all these Ethereum crypto natives that hold ETH in their wallets that that is going to go into Robinhood products.
会流入Robinhood Chain和那里的活动。
It's gonna go into Robinhood Chain and activity on there.
所以这值得思考。
So something to think about.
我不知道他们是否在考虑做类似的事情，我没有内部消息，但你可以想象，如果他们做了，那么下一个进入ETH的机构可能也会做同样的事。
I don't I have no inside information on whether they're considering doing something like this, but you could imagine if they do it, then the next, you know, institution that comes on to ETH is probably gonna do the same thing.
对吧？
Right?
你可以看到这可能会变得有趣。
And you could see that that that could get interesting.
所以我觉得ETH现在处境不错。
So I think ETH is in a good spot.
这对整个加密货币行业来说非常健康，我也很高兴看到这一点。
It's very healthy for crypto as a whole, and I'm very happy to happy to see it.
你喜欢PUMP。
You like PUMP.
你现在喜欢PONS。
You like PONS right now.
你一直看好它们。在我们结束这期节目之前，我们快速转到宏观话题。你今天早些时候提到，市场目前定价9月16日加息的可能性为60%。
You've you've liked them for a Let's let's quickly shift to macro before we close this episode So you said this earlier in today's conversation, the market is currently pricing a 60% chance of a rate hike September 16.
那就是下周了，Mike。
That's just next week, Mike.
是的。
Yep.
是的。
Yep.
而且我们刚发布了比预期更强的就业报告，这真的让市场大吃一惊。
And we just had a stronger than expected jobs report, so this really blew the jobs out of the market.
所以我想分析师们原本预期增加5.3万个工作岗位。
So I guess analysts were expecting 53,000 jobs added.
结果我们增加了16.2万个工作岗位。
We got a 162 jobs added.
周四会有PPI数据公布。
We have PPI numbers coming out on Thursday.
油价在悄悄上涨，写稿时已经达到每桶94美元，所以宏观方面有一些有趣的事情。
Oil is up quietly in the background, $94 per barrel ahead of the writing, so some interesting things going into macro.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
这周你会担心这些吗？
Does that weigh on your mind this week?
有一点。
A little bit.
有一点。
A little bit.
我的意思是，你知道，我觉得CPI数据会告诉我们接下来会发生什么，可能下周会不会加息。
I mean, you know, we'll we'll I think the CPI print is gonna gonna tell us what's gonna happen probably with rate with whether we're gonna see rate hikes next week.
你提到了油价。
So you mentioned oil prices.
我觉得油价甚至已经涨到96美元了。
I think it's even up to $96 in oil.
看起来油价可能想重新回到100美元。
So it looks like oil may want to go back up to a 100.
没人讨论这个，我在想这是不是意味着我们可能会迎来一些波动。
Nobody's talking about this, and I wonder if that means, you know, we potentially have some volatility coming.
那只是针对加密货币吗？
Is that just for crypto?
就像，你知道，这整轮上涨真正开始是因为国债贬值交易那类事情。
It's like, you know, the this whole rally started in earnest on sort of the the treasury put debasement trade thing.
如果通胀数据偏高，然后九月份美联储又加息，那对贬值交易有利吗？
If we get inflation numbers that are high and then we get Fed rate funds up in September, is that good for debasement trade?
不。
No.
不。
No.
这对贬值交易可不好。
This is not good for debasement trade.
这可能是收益率上升，而且我觉得我们可能会看到，你知道，贝森愿意投入多少弹药。
This is probably yields going up, and, you know, I think what we're gonna we may see, you know, how much ammo Besson is willing to to, you know, put into play here.
因为如果，比如说，油价继续涨到100，我们周四会看到CPI或PPI数据，周五是CPI。
Because if if if, let's say, keeps going up to a 100, we get the CPI print Thursday or PPI Thursday, CPI Friday.
这些数据如果高于预期的话。
Those numbers come in higher than expect expected.
我不确定它们会不会高于预期，因为我觉得我们还在一个窗口期，八月份油价大多是在下跌的。
I don't know if they are gonna come in higher than expected because I think we're still in this sort of window where oil prices were down mostly in August.
可能是在慢慢上升吧。
May maybe it was creeping up.
但如果CPI和PPI数据真的比预期高，那可能会迫使……而且油价也在涨。
But if we do get a higher, you know, than expected CPI print, PPI print, then it it it may force and oil's rising.
这可能会迫使美联储加息，或者影响其信誉。
It may force the Fed to to hike rates or credibility.
收益率会上升。
Yields go up.
我们可能会看到那种小幅的恐慌波动，如果这种情况发生的话，那时候69.9千和200日均线可能会发挥作用。
We may get that little sort of scare volatility, and and and that will be when, like, the 69.9 k, the two hundred day moving average potentially comes into play if if this plays out.
我之所以不像平时那样担心，主要是因为财政部的表态。
The reason I'm not as concerned about it as I normally would be was just because of the messaging coming from the treasury.
就在昨天，我觉得他们甚至暗示可能会进行更大规模的回购。
Even yesterday, I think they just hinted at potentially even larger buybacks.
真的吗？
Really?
所以我觉得市场基本上就是，对，就是这样。
So I think the market is just kinda like, yes.
这事儿确实在发生，但基本上财政部长已经说了他们会限制收益率。
This is happening, but you basically have the treasury secretary saying that they're gonna cap yields.
所以如果他们打算压低收益率，那这样一来就抵消了。
So if they're gonna cut yields, then, yeah, then it sort of cancels it out.
某种程度上你并不是在跟一个自由市场打交道，我觉得你得适应这一点。
You don't you're not really dealing with a free market in some ways, and you have to respond to that, I I think.
所以对你来说，关键水平还是69.9千。
So So the band for you still, key levels at the end is 69.9 k.
那是200日移动平均线，通道在它和80.4千之间，80.4千是50周移动平均线。
That's the two hundred day moving average at a channel between that and 80.4 k, which is the fifty week moving average.
理想情况下，确认牛市——比特币目前还没有完全确认——需要比特币连续几周收在80.4以上。
And ideally, confirmation of the bull, which you don't quite have for Bitcoin, would be Bitcoin closing a few weeks over 80.4.
那就是50周移动平均线，而且还没有突破这个通道。
That would be the fifty week moving average and also not breaking out of this channel.
所以理想情况下，不要跌破69.9。
So ideally, not going below the 69.9.
对。
And Yeah.
大家记得，我们现在是九月。
Recall, guys, we are in September.
从历史上看，九月对加密货币来说真的很糟糕，对比特币也很糟糕。
Historically, September has been really bad for crypto, has been really bad for Bitcoin.
迈克，我觉得前半段看起来没那么糟。
The first half of it hasn't seemed so bad to me, Mike.
不。
No.
其实挺好的。
It's been pretty good.
我们看看下半月会怎么样。
We'll see what the second half brings.
我们来聊聊你是怎么操作投资组合的吧。
Let's talk about maybe how you are playing the portfolio.
这周市场很平静，你基本上就是让一切顺其自然。
It was a quiet week this week, you're just kind of letting everything ride.
顺便说一下，TDR Pro的会员们，我看了数据，TDR Pro会员创了历史新高，恭喜你们。
I think TDR Pro members by the way, I I've looked at the stats, TDR Pro members, all time highs, congrats on that.
是的。
Yep.
我看到了很多好评涌进来，都在夸这个产品有多棒，多出色。
I've seen tons of testimonials riding in, and talking about the product, how great, how fantastic it's been.
但你对投资组合有什么计划呢？
But what are your plans for the portfolio?
你之前稍微提到过对某些风险的担忧。
You hinted a little bit about worrying a little bit about some of the risk.
我的意思是，是不是有些仓位涨幅过大，相对于其他仓位来说，存在上行风险。
I mean, is upside risk of some of the positions appreciating a lot relative to your other positions.
你打算接下来怎么操作？
How do you intend to play this moving forward?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这始终是关键所在。
I think that's always the the name of the game.
就是要双向管理风险。
It's just, like, managing the risk in both directions.
而且，你知道，现在这个阶段挺有意思的，在我看来，早期牛市周期还没有被确认。
And, you know, it's kind of interesting to be at a point where the early bull cycle hasn't been confirmed in my opinion.
所以实际上确实存在下行风险。
So you actually do have some risk to the downside.
我也认为，如果比特币真的把那个五十周均线作为支撑位，那上行风险也很大。
I also think there's significant risk to the upside if Bitcoin actually, you know, establishes that fifty week as support.
我觉得，你知道，如果比特币出现那样的走势，链上活动可能会开始接近一种狂热的状态。
I think, you know, we could see a situation where the on chain area starts to move closer to, like, a frenzy situation if we if we see that move from Bitcoin.
所以两边都有风险。
So there's risk in both directions.
我们有一些仓位已经涨上去了。
We have some positions that that have gone up.
而且，你知道，如果我的仓位像PONS那样涨得这么快，你可能会考虑逐步减仓。
And, you know, normally, if I have a position go up as fast as the PONS did, you know, you'd probably be looking at scaling out of that.
对吧？
Right?
如果我们现在是在一个周期中，而且我认为已经到了周期的后期，我会考虑逐步减仓。
If we were kinda moving through a cycle here and we were kind of in what I thought was a later stage of the cycle, I would be looking to to scale out of that.
我以前有过一些规则，比如某个资产涨了五倍，你就自动开始卖一点。
And I've had rules in the past about, you know, something goes up five x, you just automatically, you know, start to sell a little bit bit of that.
我现在有点不那么严格了。
I've kind of come off of that a little bit.
我只是觉得，管理加密资产时很难有固定的规则，因为事情变化太快，情况一直在变。
I just think it's really hard to have, like, kind of firm rules when you're managing crypto assets because things move so fast, things change.
你知道，我觉得很容易看着我们的PONS仓位，然后想，哇，这都涨了十倍多了。
You know, I think it'd be very easy to look at, like, our PONS position and be like, oh, that's up over 10 x.
就像，你就得赶紧卖掉它。
Like, you just you gotta get out of that.
直接卖了就行。
You just sell it.
我现在不这么想，因为我觉得它可能被严重低估了，市值才五亿美元，看它赚钱的方式，代币经济学的结构，还有它是公平启动的，没有大量风投资本在里面，这些都可能让它很难真正重新定价。
I'm not of that mind right now because I think there's a chance that it's, like, significantly undervalued at a $500,000,000 market cap based on the way it's printing money, the way that the token economics is is is structured, the fact that there's, like it was, like, this, you know, fair launch and you don't have tons of VC capital in there that that could potentially make it harder for that to sort of really reprice.
而且，我们还没看到这类资产在牛市流动性充足的时候，回购和反身性会带来什么效果。
And, like, what we haven't seen with these types of assets as well is, like, this this idea of these buybacks and the reflexivity during bull market conditions when liquidity is is more ample.
我就是想看看这会怎么发展，因为我觉得当交易者知道有回购支撑，而且处于流动性充裕、人们纷纷涌入加密货币的环境时，这会吸引动量交易者进入这些资产。
I am interested in just seeing how this this plays out because I think it's going to pull momentum traders into these assets as well when they know there's a buyback behind something and there's you're kind of in a a liquidity positive environment where people are coming into crypto.
我可以预见动量交易者也会进入这类资产，把它们推得比人们想象的更高。
I could see momentum traders coming into these types of assets as well and pushing them even higher than people people think.
所以，你知道，我们也不知道会怎样。
So, you know, we don't we don't know.
对吧？
Right?
这还太早了。
This is so early.
像PONS这样的项目，真的没法准确评估。
There's no way to really underwrite something like PONS.
但对我来说，我觉得风险几乎是在上涨这一边。
But for me, I I think the the risk is almost on the on the upside.
即使我持有的仓位已经涨了好几倍，我觉得像这样的项目仍然有上涨的显著风险。
Even though I'm holding a position that's up multiples, I think there's still risk you know, significant risk to the upside on something like this.
所以我们很乐意就坐在这儿等着。
So we're happy to kinda just sit in spa.
我们会继续监控这些仓位。
We're gonna continue to monitor these positions.
我们还有其他一些仓位表现不错。
We've had some other positions doing well.
我们投资组合里非比特币的部分几乎翻了两倍，这太棒了。
Our non BTC part of the portfolio is up almost two x, which is amazing
哇。
Wow.
你知道，在周期的这个阶段。
You know, at this at this stage of the the cycle.
所以从专业会员那里收到了很多很好的反馈。
So getting a lot of great feedback from pro members.
我觉得大家都很满意。
I think people are happy.
我也觉得我们在这里还非常早。
I also think we're so we're we're super early here.
所以我知道，如果你现在刚进入加密货币领域，可能错过了一些轻松赚钱的机会。
So I know people if you're coming into crypto right now, maybe you missed some of this, like, easy money possibly.
但你知道，当你几年后拉远看这张图表时，我觉得从8万比特币或7.5万比特币买入和从低点买入的差别，几乎会看不出来。
But we're so you know, when you when you zoom out on this chart in a few years, I think, you know, the difference from buying, you know, 80 k Bitcoin or 75 Bitcoin versus, like, the lows is is gonna look like you won't even be able to tell the difference almost.
所以现在还很早，但我很期待看看市场在这个阶段给我们传递什么信号。
So very early, but excited to see kind of what the signals the market's giving us at this stage.
好的，就是这样。
Well, that's it.
当然，这些都不是投资建议。
None of this, of course, is financial advice.
这是一本投资者日志。
This is an investor journal.
如果你是新来的，因为我觉得TDR播客在频道上创了历史新高，所以可能有很多新朋友在听。
And if you are new here, because I think the TDR Podcast is hitting all time highs on the channel, so we probably have a lot of new folks listening.
让我给你们解释一下怎么订阅。
Let me just explain to you guys how to lock in.
我们每周三都会做这些节目。
So we do these episodes every Wednesday.
你可以在Spotify、iTunes、播客，或者任何你获取这些订阅源的地方订阅，也可以在YouTube上订阅。
You can subscribe to it on Spotify, iTunes, podcasts, wherever you get those feeds, or also YouTube.
我们也鼓励你在各个平台都订阅一下，这样就不会错过了。
We would encourage you to subscribe cross channel as well so you don't miss out on that.
如果你觉得这些节目对你有帮助，请给我们留言，给我们评价，让我们知道。
If you are benefiting from these episodes, please leave a comment for us, please leave a review, let us know.
这样我们就能在榜单上往上冲，获得更多曝光。
That's how we kind of launch up the charts and get more exposure.
而且这些都是免费的。
And so that you can do, that is for free.
如果你想订阅迈克的投资组合和完整的投资者日志，及时收到提醒，提前知道他的操作，不管是买入还是卖出，你可以注册TDR Pro，这就是我们一直在说的，而且我记得有三十天的免费试用期，所以完全没有任何损失，现在锁定可能正是早期牛市的机会。
If you wanna subscribe to Mike's portfolio and the full investor journal, get those alerts so you know about PONS ahead of time and what he's doing, whether he's entering or exiting, you can sign up for TDR Pro, that's what we've been talking about, and you can do that, I think there's a thirty day free trial, so you have nothing to lose at all by just doing that, locking in for what might be, what looks to be the early bull markets.
迈克，有70%的概率这是早期牛市，所以现在是
Mike, a 70% probability that this is the early bull, so now is the
时候了，不过我也同意大家的看法。
time I'm with consensus, though.
所以是同意大家的看法。
So with consensus.
但迈克是持共识意见的。
But Mike is with consensus.
也许我在今天的节目里埋下了一些疑虑。
Maybe I seeded some doubt in today's episode.
总之，我们和你们一样，都在这个旅程中。
Anyway, we are along the journey just like you.
下次再见，保持好奇心。
Until next time, stay curious.
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