量化宽松Lite版、收益率上升与比特币的最终熊市考验

我们已经进入加密货币寒冬十个月了，现在正进入最后阶段。

We are ten months into crypto winter and entering the final zone now.

欢迎收听《DeFi 报告》。

Welcome to the DeFi Report.

今天报告的主题是：财政部是不是刚刚推出了“量化宽松轻量版”？

The topic today in the report today, did the Treasury just launch QE Lite?

我们会解释这意味着什么。

We'll explain what that means.

还有，目前的形势。

Also, the setup here.

比特币最近一直在公允价值区间内横盘整理。

Bitcoin has been range bound lately in this fair value territory.

还有纳斯达克。

We also have the Nasdaq.

它正试图突破历史高点，但遇到了一些阻力。

It's trying to break all time highs, having a little trouble doing that.

这可是件大事。

And this is big.

美国国债收益率刚刚创下二十年新高。

Treasury yields just broke a twenty year high.

那是指三十年期国债收益率。

That's on the thirty year yield.

这很说明问题。

That means something.

另外，黄金在过去几周上涨了15%。

We also have gold up 15% in the last few weeks.

所有这些信号都指向什么呢？

What are all these signals pointing to?

什么是QE Lite？还有，麦克现在在宏观方面正在关注的三件事，可能会预示比特币价格在熊市剩余两个月内跌至更低的低点。

What is QE Lite, and what are the three things in macro that Mike is watching right now that might signal we are going to lower lows in the remaining two months of the bear market on Bitcoin price?

请看到最后。

Stick around to the end.

我们要聊聊需要关注的价格、两百周均线，以及月度收盘价高于或低于两百周均线可能会给我们带来哪些信号，指引下一步的走向。

We're gonna talk about the prices to watch, the two hundred week moving average, and why a monthly close above or below that two hundred week moving average could give us some signal as to where we go next.

迈克，今天很高兴和你一起。

Mike, great to be with you today.

如果今天的报道准确的话，你认为我们可能正处于熊市最后两个月。

If today's report is correct, you think we could be entering the final two months of the bear market.

我们这里给个正负一个月的浮动。

We'll give it a plus or minus a month here.

可以吗？

Okay?

但是熊市的最后两个月，你觉得接下来的这两个月会发生什么？

But the final two months of the bear market, what do you think we can expect in these next two months?

事情开始变得有意思了。

Things are starting to get interesting.

你知道，从六月底开始，我们就一直在这样一个窄幅区间里交易。

You know, it's been we've been trading in this kind of tight channel here since end of June or so.

现在有点慢下来了。

It's gotten kinda slow.

链上非常安静，大家可能也注意到，我开始把更多注意力转向宏观层面，试图预测这轮熊市会怎么结束。

It's very quiet on chain out there, and people can probably see that my attention is starting to turn a little bit more towards the macro side of things to try to forecast how this bear market might end.

是的，你知道，加密货币市场里确实有一些投机的小热点，但都局限在内部。

And, yeah, it's you know, there's there's kind of pockets of speculation, I would say, really contained within the crypto markets.

我们看到 Robinhood 链上、pump 生态和 FOMO 情绪里有一些投机活动。

We're seeing a little bit of speculation on Robinhood chain within the pump ecosystem, within FOMO.

所以那里有一些有趣的信号。

So some kind of interesting signals there.

看比特币的话，比特币和一些主流币种其实没什么动静。

When I look at Bitcoin, we see really kind of not a lot going on with Bitcoin and and some of the majors.

是的，注意力真的转向宏观了。

And, yeah, the attention's really turning to macro.

现在外汇市场有一些有趣的发展，我们今天就聊聊这个。

There's some interesting developments happening in FX right now, which we'll get to today.

你在开场的时候提到了黄金。

You mentioned gold there in the intro.

黄金已经上涨了15%。

Gold is up 15%.

这可能是比特币未来走势的一个信号。

Might be a little bit of a signal for what's to come here with Bitcoin.

所以我们快接近了。

So we're getting close.

感觉我们快接近那个点了。

It's feeling like we're getting close.

我们差不多到了那个要么往一个方向走，要么往另一个方向走的时候，这可能就是熊市如何结束的信号。

We're kinda getting to that point where there's gonna be a move in one direction or the other, and it could be the signal, you know, as to how this bear market's gonna end.

所以这周我很期待深入探讨这个话题。

So excited to get into it this week.

几周前，你说我们已经走过了熊市的80%。

A few weeks ago, you said we were 80% of the way through the bear market.

那今天呢？

What are we today?

我觉得大概85%吧。

85% or so, I think.

你懂吧？

You know?

而且，你知道，我们正在一点点往上走，接下来我们会看看市场结构是什么样的。

And and, you know, we're we're we're ticking up a little bit, and we'll get to sort of what the the market structure looks like here.

但我觉得，从链上数据来看，这个熊市的时间长度，大部分都指向这个周期快要结束了。

But I think, you know, most of the On-Chain data in terms of the kind of the time of this bear market is pointing towards, you know, the end of this cycle being being near.

而且我觉得，我们是否会进入深度价值区域，真的取决于现在的流动性状况，以及宏观上会发生什么，还有那些在宏观中盘旋的风险是否真的会实现。

And I think the the question on whether we get into deep value territory is really gonna come down to kind of the liquidity conditions out there right now and what's gonna play out in macro and if any of these risks that are swirling in macro actually end up coming to fruition here.

好，那我们开始吧。

Well, let's get into it.

结束就在眼前了。

The end is near.

希望熊市快要结束了。

Let's hope the end of the bear market is near.

在录制的时候，比特币刚好略高于两百周移动平均线。

So at the time of recording, Bitcoin is just a hair above the two hundred week moving average.

我觉得两百周均线是63800，而我们现在在63500左右。

I think the two hundred week is 63.8, and we are at 63.5 k right now.

我们先从当前状况说起吧。

Let's start with the current conditions.

要做到这一点，我觉得你的招牌做法是看成本基础分组。

In order to do that, I think your your signature move is to look at the cost basis cohort.

这就是你在分析中觉得非常有价值的链上数据。

That is the on chain data that you find so valuable in your analysis.

这是一张表格，成本基础分组。

So here's a table, cost based cohorts.

这些是不同的比特币购买区间，比特币价格购买范围从大约17000美元一直到最高约127000美元。

These are different Bitcoin purchase ranges, Bitcoin price purchase ranges starting from about 17 ks ending to a high of about a 127 ks.

表格里的每一行都代表一个不同的持仓成本区间。

Each row on this table is another cohort range.

其中有一个区间被标成了红色。

You have one range that is highlighted in red.

没错。

Yep.

这个区间是五万六千到六万六千美元的成本段。

This is the 56 k to 66 k range cohort.

这些是买入价格在6.5万到6.6万美元之间的比特币的个人、投资者和机构。

These are individuals, investors, institutions that bought between 65 k and 66 k Bitcoin.

在2025年10月10日，他们持有该批次供应量的7%，而今天他们持有的比例变成了8.11%到20.26%，从7%上升到了12%，涨幅大约是70%。

You have a percent of supply that they owned on 10/10/2025, which for this cohort, 7%, and then a percent that they own today, which is $8.11 $20.26, that has moved from 7% to 12%, so it's about 70% up.

在整个表格的所有行中，这是你特别强调的一行。

And of all the rows in the table, this is the one you highlight.

为什么这很重要呢？

Why is this important?

对。

Yeah.

这就是我说的上一轮周期顶部的那个群体。我们现在其实就是把这些成本基础群体分开来，然后看看他们在比特币总流通供应量中占多大比例。

This is the cohort that is I I'm calling them sort of the the prior cycle top cohort, and what we've been doing here is really, you know, segregating these cost basis cohorts and and sort of marking, you know, what what those cohorts looked like in terms of their Bitcoin supply as a percentage of the total circulating supply.

我们以周期顶点时的数据为基准，然后持续观察这些群体，看比特币在熊市期间是如何易手，最终流向哪里。

We've kind of marked that as of kind of the cycle peak, and then we're monitoring these cohorts to see how coins are reshuffling hands and where they're ultimately going as the bear market plays out.

我一直觉得，这个上一轮周期的顶部区域，会是熊市中吸收最多比特币的群体。

And I've had the view that this sort of prior cycle cycle top zone would be the cohort that ends up picking up the most coins during this this bear market.

正如你所说，这个群体已经增长了大约70%。

As you mentioned, we're up about 70% in this cohort.

现在它已经是这些成本基础群体中第二大的了。

It's now the number two largest cohort amongst these these cost basis cohorts.

所以这是我一直关注的点。

So something something I'm monitoring.

我觉得这个区域之所以有吸引力，是因为2022年就是这样发生的。

The reason I think, you know, there's sort of a magnet in this area is this is sort of how it played out back in 2022.

当时对应的那个群体大概是1.7万到2.1万。

That the equivalent cohort at the time was about 17 k to 21 k.

那就是上一轮周期顶部的那个群体。

That was the sort of prior cycle top cohort.

看起来跟现在差不多，2022年熊市进行到大概九、十个月的时候，那个群体在增加，但实际上它上面的那些群体增加得更快。

And it kinda looked similar, you know, roughly nine, ten months into the 2022 bear market to what we're showing here where that cohort was was rising, but actually the cohorts above it were rising faster.

这大概能让你了解熊市是怎么进行的，比如逢低买入的行为，以及投资者是怎么建仓的。

And it kinda gives you an idea of sort of how the bear market plays out in terms of dip dip buying behavior and how investors are kind of getting into positions.

我反复想到的主要是熊市的最后两个月，那时候大部分币都换了手，最终落到了上一轮周期顶部的那个区域。

And the main thing that I keep coming back to is, like, the final two months of the bear market where we're, like, when the most coins kinda changed hands and ultimately ended up in that sort of prior type prior cycle top zone.

所以这就是我在这里关注的重点。

So that's that's kinda what I'm what I'm watching here for here.

那么，我们怎么才能达到那个状态呢？

And, you know, how do we get there?

怎么才能让那个群体再吸收2%到3%的供应量，然后在周期结束时持有最多的币呢？

How do we get to this place where that cohort picks up another two or 3% of the supply and finishes the cycle with the most coins?

我们可能需要市场再迎来一些波动，可能还会有一个10%到15%的调整。

We probably need some more volatility to come back into the markets, potentially, you know, another 10 to 15% correction or so.

所以，这就是我说的，链上数据大概占85%的判断依据，而宏观因素可能会是决定性的，我们得看看那些风险在宏观层面是不是真的会兑现，把我们带到那些低位，也有可能我们其实已经触底了，这个可能性也是存在的，到时候也可以按这个情况来分析。

And so, you know, this is kinda where where I'm saying, you know, roughly 85% on the On-Chain data, And, you know, the macro is probably going to be the thing that takes us we'll see if some of these risks actually come to fruition in the macro that take us down to these levels possible that we've we've actually bottomed for the cycle as well, and we can we can play out that scenario as well.

所以换句话说，你做的这个链上群体分析，确实就像你预期的和猜测的那样，和之前的周期一模一样，币从高成本群体流向五万六千到六万六千这个群体，像磁铁一样。

So in other words, this On Chain cohort analysis that you're doing, this is playing out exactly as you might suspect, expect, and exactly as it played out in previous cycles where the coins rotate from the top cohorts into this 56 to 66 cohort like a magnet.

而且我也注意到，这个价格区间也和你对比特币的公平市值价格差不多，至少从十月份开始就是这样了。

And I have to notice this is also, you know, along the same price range as as your fair market value price for Bitcoin has been for, I don't know, since October at least.

所以我想这其实一直是分析的一部分吧。

And so I guess that's been part of the analysis all along.

不过这里有个问题，那就是那些低于五万六千的群体，对吧，在磁铁之下的那些，也都在减少，这正常吗？因为我看着这个表格，有点让我担心，这些成本更低的群体，反而买入并没有增加。

One question here though is, is it normal for all of these cohorts under 56 k, right, under that magnet to actually decrease to because this sort of as I look at this table it almost alarms me a little bit that these even lower cost basis cohorts aren't buying more.

似乎他们一直在减少。

They seem to be decreasing.

那样情况常见吗？

Is that is that typical?

我觉得是这样。

I think so.

你知道，我们在2022年也看到过类似的模式，我觉得，部分信号在于，一些在2018年周期或2021年周期以较低成本买入的持有者，他们愿意卖出。

You know, we saw a similar pattern in '22, and I think, you know, part of the signal there is that some of these holders that, you know, acquired coins in in, you know, the 2018 cycle or the '21 cycle at these lower cost basis bands, they're, you know, willing to sell.

也许他们没有在去年十月准确抓住周期顶部，他们就是那些在周期进行中，把币卖给那些逢低买入的人。

You know, maybe they didn't time the the cycle top back in October properly, and they're the ones, you know, kind of selling to some of these dip buyers who are picking up the coins, you know, as as the the cycle goes.

所以，你可以看到，那些较低成本的持有者，比如34到40、40到47千美元区间的，会卖一些币给在66到78千或78到92千区间买入的投资者。

So you can have, like, these lower cohorts, you know, 34 to 40, 40 to 47 k, sell some of their coins to investors that are buying in the 66 to 6 78 k range or the 78 to 92 k range.

所以我觉得确实有一些这样的情况。

So I think there's been some of that.

嗯，我想，Mike，他们可能是同一批投资者。

Well and I guess, Mike, they might be some of those same investors.

投资者。

Investors.

所以如果他们真的把握得好，了解周期，关注你的分析，他们会在稍高的位置卖出，然后试图在56到66千美元区间买回来。

So maybe if they're really timing this well, they know about the cycles, they follow your work, they're selling a little bit higher, and then they're trying to buy back at this 56 to 66 k range.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

我觉得这可能就是现在发生的情况。

I think that's that's possibly what's what's playing out there.

好的。

Okay.

所以你说这个部分就是这样结束的。

So you said this section ends like this.

作为参考，比特币在2028年上一个周期顶部区域停留了105天，其中98%的交易日是在熊市最后两个月里在这个区域度过的。

For reference, Bitcoin spent a hundred and five days trading in the prior cycle top zone in 2028, and 98% of those trading days were spent in this zone over the final two months of the bear market.

根据你的时间线，我们现在正处于熊市最后两个月。

According to your timeline, we are in the final two months of the bear market.

到目前为止，在2026年这个周期里，比特币只在前一个顶部区域待了66天，这意味着如果我们要达到105天的话，现在大概还需要在这个五六万到六万六k的区间里再待一个月左右。

So far in 2026, in this cycle, Bitcoin has only spent sixty six days in the prior cycle top zone, which implies if we're gonna match the hundred and five days, we got a month or so to spend in this 56 to 66 k range.

好的。

Okay.

如果真是这样，我觉得56到66k这个区间最终会成为持仓量最大的区间。

And if that happens, then I would expect that 56 to 66 k range to become the largest cohort of coins, you know, at some point.

行。

Alright.

一切都到位了。

It's all falling into place.

其他当前条件，ETF资金流是积极的。

Other current conditions, ETF flows, they're positive.

但还是疲软。

They're still weak.

这让我有点震惊。

This was crazy to me.

现货和永续合约交易量还在减弱，已经处于2019年末以来的最低水平了。

Spot and perps volumes continue to weaken, and they're at their lowest level since late twenty nineteen.

我知道你提到过，成交量是你判断市场见底的一个关键指标。

And I know you've mentioned volumes as a key indicator for you in kind of marking the low.

你会预期，在最后的彻底投降阶段，成交量会很高。

You'd expect to see high volumes at kind of the the final capitulation.

是的。

Yeah.

少量抛售在加速。

Minor selling accelerating.

当然，我们还是要有策略的。

Of course, we got strategy in play.

他们似乎还在继续平仓。

They seem to be continuing their unwind.

Clarity今年通过的概率已经降到了百分之二十二。

The odds of Clarity passing in this year are down to twenty two percent.

在当前的这些情况下，还有没有其他你想特别指出的因素？

Any other factors that that you wanna highlight in these current conditions?

我觉得基本上就是我在看的这些。

I think that's kinda mostly, you know, what I'm looking at here.

现货和永续合约的交易量这么低，就说明我们现在处于这个周期的时间性投降区域。

The the spot and perf volumes being so low is just an indication of, you know, kind of we're in this time based capitulation zone of the cycle here.

有一件事开始引起我的注意，我们在最近几期节目里聊过矿工。

One thing that is starting to stand out a little bit to me, we've talked on a few recent episodes about the minors.

矿工群体出现了加速抛售。

There has accelerated selling coming from the minor cohort.

所以我在关注这个，可能和AI公司的一些交易有关，矿工们正在退出部分业务，把一些能源容量卖给AI公司，因为这确实是我在密切关注的事情。

So that's something I'm watching for potentially related to some of these deals that are happening with AI companies where the the miners are sort of exit portions of their business, selling some of their energy capacity to to AI companies, because that's something I'm I'm definitely watching for.

然后，是的，Clarity法案通过的几率。

And then, yeah, odds of clarity act passing.

现在这事有点悬。

This is sort of a toss-up right now.

目前感觉不太好，因为国会刚休会，什么都没做成。

The the the it doesn't feel great currently just because congress just went on recess without getting anything done.

我觉得我们主要关注的时间点是9月15号。

I think the main date that we're we're watching there is September 15.

那天会有一个程序性的终结辩论投票，需要60票才能推进到尝试通过这项法案的阶段。

That's when there's sort of a procedural cloture vote that's gonna take place, and it needs 60 votes just to get to the point where they could try to push this through.

看起来我们需要至少七名民主党人支持，假设所有共和党人都支持这项法案，但我认为可能有一两名共和党人现在持反对态度。

It looks like we're gonna need at least seven Democrats as if all Republicans, you know, support this bill, which I think there could be one or two Republicans that are now potentially opposed to it.

所以可能需要再多几名民主党人支持。

So maybe you need a few more Democrats.

所以这是个值得留意的点。

So something to watch for.

比如，如果宏观环境开始变差，再加上清晰度法案那边传来坏消息，我觉得这可能会把我们推向深度价值区间。

Like, if if we start to get, like, a the macro starts to not get so good and then you have, you know, bad news with clarity, I could see this potentially leading us into, you know, a deep value territory potentially here.

另外一点是，目前整个加密货币领域的社交热度非常低。

The other thing is, you know, social interest is very, very low across crypto right now.

挺有意思的是，在Robinhood链生态里，其实出现了一些投机情绪和动物精神。

It's kind of interesting because there have been some pockets of speculation, animal spirits, we'll call it, that are happening within the Robinhood chain ecosystem.

创作者社交交易领域最近活跃度有所上升，我们对本轮周期中围绕 Pump Fund 的活动持相当乐观的态度。

We've seen an uptick in activity within kind of the creator social trading space, which we have a a pretty big thesis for this cycle activity around pump fund.

有一款新的社交交易应用叫 FOMO，表现不错。

There's a new social trading app called FOMO that's been doing well.

所以目前有一小股资金正在活跃，主要是在加密圈内部流转。

So there's, like, some we'll call it, like, sort of a small hot ball of money that's moving around really largely just within crypto natives right now.

这算是某种投机迹象，可能表明熊市正在逐渐消退，这也是我关注的重点。

So a little bit of speculation, possibly an indication that, you know, the cycle's starting to you know, the bear market's starting to wind down, so something I'm keeping an eye on.

不过大部分时候，你知道的，这是周期里基于时间的投降阶段，注意力转到了宏观经济上。

But for the most part, you know, time based capitulation stage of the cycle and attention turning to macro.

你的这份报告观点是，在这个熊市周期剩下的15%时间里，我们是否会进入那个深度价值区域，很大程度上取决于宏观条件。

Your take in this report is that in the remaining 15% of this bear cycle, whether we go into that deep value territory depends a lot on macro conditions.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们来聊聊你现在正密切关注的三件事，用句俗话说，简直像老鹰一样盯着它们。

So let's talk about the three things that you are keeping an eye on right now and just like watching like a hawk I would say.

对。

Yep.

一个是通胀。

One is inflation.

另一个是日元兑美元的汇率，以及那边的情况。

The other is the yen dollar kind of ratio and what's going on there.

第三个是黄金。

And the third is gold.

先从通胀说起吧，把它解决掉，因为我们好像在等八月份的数据。

Let's start with inflation and just kind of knock that out because we are waiting on some August data, I believe.

通胀方面是什么情况？

What's the inflation story?

我想今天晚些时候会公布CPI数据。

We'll get CPI data, I think, later today.

PPI明天公布。

PPI comes out tomorrow.

月底还会有更多数据出来。

Some more data coming in at the end of the month.

那你预计通胀会是什么情况？

And what are you expecting to see in inflation?

这可能意味着什么？

What could it mean?

对。

Yeah.

所以今天CPI已经公布了。

So CPI dropped today, so that that has come out.

公布的数据是3.4%，跟市场预期一致。

It came came out at 3.4%, which was what the market was expecting.

所以通胀方面没有坏消息，我觉得主要是因为7月份油价基本保持在低位，在70多到80出头的区间。

So no bad news on the inflation front, I think largely because oil prices kinda stayed in range in the kinda low eighties, upper seventies during the month of July.

所以通胀方面没有引起恐慌。

So no no sort of, like, negative scare on inflation.

我觉得今早纳斯达克对那个消息反应很正面。

I think Nasdaq took that news positively this morning.

加密货币那边有点意思，比特币没怎么涨，虽然这可能算正面通胀数据，但也不确定是不是正面，因为它没低于预期，只是符合预期。

On the crypto side, kind of interesting that Bitcoin is not up on on the sort of positive don't know if it's positive inflation print because it wasn't lower than expected, but it came in in line with with inflation expectations.

我更关注的是三十年期国债，看它对通胀数据怎么反应，对美联储的政策姿态怎么反应，美联储可能不再给那么多前瞻指引，而是让市场自己把收益率推高。

What I'm sort of watching more closely, I would say, is the thirty year and how that is responding to what's happening on the inflation front, what's happening in terms of the the Fed and and sort of the policy that they're maybe not putting out so much forward guidance, but letting the market sort of guide itself to higher yields.

而三十年国债收益率刚刚突破了5.2%。

And the thirty year broke out above 5.2% just recently.

这差不多是突破了二十年左右的区间，而且看起来它还想继续往上走。

That's like a, you know, breaking out of a twenty year range or so, and it looks like it it wants to go it wants to keep going up.

我们之前聊过，美联储现在做的前瞻指引少了很多，不太去引导市场预期它下一步货币政策怎么做，是加息、按兵不动，还是某个时候可能降息。

We've talked about how the Fed is doing much less, you know, forward guidance and sort of guiding the market to what what it's gonna do in terms of monetary policy, hiking rates, holding, or potentially cutting here at some point.

看起来债券市场就是想重新定价更高的收益率。

And it just looks like the bond market wants to reprice higher.

我觉得这很大程度上和相关，就是你看全球的地缘政治形势，各种战争，油价，还有这些战争的资金运作，以及由此产生的担忧。

I think a lot of this has to do with when you just look out at the geopolitical situation with wars, with oil prices, with, you know, funding these wars and concerns around that.

我们仍然有大规模的财政支出，即使不算军事开支也是这样。

We still have, you know, excessive fiscal spending broadly, you know, just even if you strip out, you know, military spending.

我们还有去全球化、新贸易联盟这些大变动，这可能意味着结构性通胀会更高，还有人口结构变化。另外，我最近开始更多关注的是海外的不稳定因素，尤其是我们一些主要贸易伙伴那边的情况，这可能会产生连锁反应，影响到国债市场。

We've got this, you know, big, big move with deglobalization and new trade alliances and what that means potentially for structurally higher inflation, you know, shifting demographics, and then kind of the the thing that's, you know, kind of I'm starting to look a little more into here is just kind of instability abroad with some of our major, you know, trading partners and and what that could mean in terms terms of domino effects that can impact the treasury market.

这就要说到日本了，那边外汇市场的情况，还有美国财政部和日本财务省在联手提振日元。

And this really comes back to Japan and what's happening over there in terms of FX and really a coordinated effort between the US Treasury and the Ministry of Finance in Japan to strengthen the yen.

我们可以深入聊聊这个，因为我觉得这里有一些信号，能看出财政部怎么想、美联储怎么想，以及我所说的那种在波动加剧的时候支持国债市场的近似新型流动性工具。

So we can kinda get into this because I think there's there's some signal here in terms of how the Treasury is thinking, how the Fed is thinking, and what I would call almost like a new liquidity facility to support the treasury market at a time when things are starting to get a little bit more volatile out there.

在我们谈日元、美联储和财政部对日元的支持之前，先说一下你所说的那些操作，你把它称为类似宽松版QE什么的，这是今天报告的主题。

Now before we talk about the yen and the Fed and Treasury's support of the yen, what they're doing, what you're calling almost like a QE Lite, That's the title of today's report.

我们先把国债收益率图表往回看一下。

Let's just go back to the treasury yield chart for a second.

我想再强调一下这一点。

So, again, I wanna emphasize this.

三十年国债收益率刚刚突破了20年的区间，也就是说，这是自2008年以来从未有过的水平。

The thirty year yield just broke a twenty year range, so it hasn't been this high since before 2008.

是吧？

Right?

所以我觉得这对投资者来说算是很大的格局转变。

So that's pretty regime shifting I think for investors.

很多听这个节目的投资者可能从来没经历过收益率这么高的时代。

A lot of investors listening to this will not have lived in a regime with yields going this high.

对。

Right.

那如果继续往上走会怎么样？

What happens if they continue?

其实我也不太确定，我觉得上周我们聊过，可能纳斯达克会稍微走弱一些，因为资金可能被吸引到国债市场里去了。

Like, I'm not actually clear on, like I think last week we talked about maybe the Nasdaq possibly breaking down a little bit as capital is is sucked into Treasury markets, maybe.

那可能就是这种情况的一个结果。

That could be an outcome of this.

但如果收益率真的往7%甚至更高走，其他所有东西会受到什么影响呢？

But if we start going towards 7%, even higher, what happens to everything else?

这肯定会影响房地产市场，可能马上就会看到影响。

It it certainly impacts the real estate market probably most immediately.

抵押贷款利率在上升，贷款更难拿到了。

Mortgage rates are are rising, and that makes it harder to to get loans.

这会降低贷款需求，可能也会影响银行和放贷标准。

It impacts the demand for loans, potentially banks and lending standards as well.

所以确实存在流动性方面的担忧。

So there's there's liquidity, you know, concerns.

另外就是，如果你能在债券市场上拿到6%的收益，那投资者肯定要重新考虑怎么分配资金。

The other piece of it is that this would certainly impact investor allocations if if you can get 6% in in bonds.

你会还想把钱放在估值这么高的人工智能科技公司吗？所以估值也会受影响。

Do you wanna be in AI, you know, tech companies at these sort of elevated elevated valuation levels, so it impacts valuation as well.

所以，如果我们真的看到收益率往6%走，我觉得这其实就是他们想要的政策方向。

And so, you know, if if we do have a move here that takes us towards 6%, and I sort of think that's the policy.

我觉得这就是他们想看到的结果。

I sort of think that's what they want to happen.

他们只是不想让这情况在快速又混乱的局面下发生。

They just don't want that to happen in sort of a fast, you know, chaotic way.

他们想让它缓慢地……

They want it to slowly

……缓缓地拆解，就像Sailor慢慢降低策略杠杆那样。

get They wanna unwind it the way Sailor is unwinding strategy leverage a little bit.

我觉得这个比喻很贴切。

I think that's a great great analogy.

那要怎么引导市场呢？

And so, you know, how do you sort of guide the market there?

我觉得这就是我们目前看到的一些政策导向——美联储试图逐步退出前瞻性指引，让市场自己去观察经济状况，引导自身走向该去的地方。

I think it's sort of what we're seeing with some of this policy with the Fed trying to sort of step away from forward guidance, let the market sort of just look at the economy and guide markets to where they need to go.

与此同时，海外也有一些情况要浮现出来。

At the same time, we've got, you know, some some situations coming up abroad.

比如说日本那边，我们可以聊聊现在正在发生的事。

You know, we could talk about Japan maybe and what's happening over there.

日本一直在经历结构性的高通胀。

Japan has been undergoing structurally higher inflation.

他们99%的原油都依赖进口。

They they import 99% of their crude oil.

这些原油大约支撑了他们三分之一的经济。

You know, that's powering about a third of their economy.

而且他们一直有负的实际收益率、低利率和高通胀。

And they've had, you know, lower you know, negative real yields, lower interest rates, higher inflation.

在国内，这种高油价的情况对日本来说是个问题，所以他们需要让日元升值。

You know, domestically, this is a problem for Japan with with this setup with rising oil prices, and so they need to strengthen the yen.

那怎么让日元升值呢？

And so how do you strengthen the yen?

通常，日本是美国国债的最大持有者，所以你需要卖出资产，然后买入日元，从而让日元升值。

Typically, you know, Japan is the largest holder of US treasuries, and so you need to sell an asset to then buy yen to strengthen the yen.

看起来，这是自1998年以来，日本财务省首次进行协调，基本上是为了帮助他们让日元升值。

And so it looks like, you know, we had the first coordination since 1998 with the Ministry of Finance over in Japan to basically help them strengthen the yen.

那我们是怎么做到的呢？

And and so how did we how did we do that?

我们基本上，美国有欧元储备。

We we we essentially The US has has reserves in euros.

我们卖了欧元，买了日元，所以没有用美元，因为我们不想因为国内通胀而让美元贬值。

We sold euros and bought yen, so we didn't use dollars to do that because we didn't want a weaker, you know, dollar policy with with inflation domestically.

那可不是什么好事。

That would that would not be a good thing.

所以我们改卖欧元。

So we sold euros instead.

他们还设立了一个叫FEMA的工具，这基本上就是我说的那种量化宽松的轻量版。

And they also set up a facility called a FEMA facility, which essentially this is kind of the QE Lite that I'm referring to.

这基本上是一项政策，让一些较大的海外贸易伙伴能够获得流动性，获得美元，而不必卖掉他们的美国国债。

This is essentially a policy to let some of our larger trading partners abroad access access liquidity, access dollars without selling their US treasury.

这样他们就可以用美国国债作为抵押品，向美联储借款。

So they can essentially use their US treasuries as collateral with the Fed.

所以他们会把国债交给美联储。

So they'll give the Fed treasuries.

这暂时扩大了美联储的资产负债表，然后美联储通过印钞给他们提供贷款，让他们能够购买本币、支撑本币汇率，而不必抛售国债，从而避免在债券市场引发更多波动。

The Fed that's increasing the Fed's balance sheet temporarily, and the Fed is then giving them printing money and then giving them a loan so that they can they can buy their local currency and strengthen their local currency without selling treasuries and creating more volatility in in the bond market.

这就是这项新政策。

So that's this this new new policy.

他们不仅在日本推出，也面向其他外国贸易伙伴推出了这一措施。

They've rolled this out not just for Japan, but for other, you know, foreign trading partners as well.

我觉得，关键点在于这释放出了担忧的信号。

And I think, you know, the takeaway for me is just that it signals concern.

他们是在试图引导市场预期。

You know, they're trying to guide.

我认为他们希望利率上升，但不希望这种上升来得太快、太混乱。

I think they're trying to guide rates up, but they don't want that to to happen in a fast, you know, chaotic way.

这是一种防止边际层面抛售国债的手段，因为那可能会加剧波动，进而影响流动性，甚至波及风险资产和纳斯达克指数。

This is a way to prevent some selling of treasuries on the margin that could potentially feed more more volatility, which would be liquidity negative and potentially, you know, influence, you know, risk assets and and the Nasdaq.

所以这绝对是个有趣的进展。

So definitely an interesting development.

这是自1998年以来第一次见到这种情况。

First time we've seen this since 1998.

从某种程度上说，这有点像那种量化宽松的轻量版政策，我觉得。

And in some ways, it's kind of like this this QE Lite type type policy, I think.

1998年是亚洲金融危机，所以那是四十年前干预的原因。

1998 was the Asian financial crisis, so that's why there was intervention forty years ago.

我们居然没怎么听到这方面的消息，这有点让人意外，至少我没怎么听到，因为这看起来确实挺重大的。

It's almost surprising we haven't heard more about this, at least I haven't because it it does seem pretty big.

你确实把提到的这个FEMA回购，就是F-I-M-A，跟硅谷银行倒闭风波时针对美国银行推出的那个BTFP计划做过对比，那是为了防止它们抛售美国国债是吧。

You actually compared this this FEMA repo, that's f I m a, to the BTFP program that was rolled out for US banks during the Silicon Valley Bank run fiasco to prevent them from selling US Treasuries Yeah.

当时是这样。

At the time.

而且它是一个临时措施，目的是为了防止某种灾难性的崩盘，然后慢慢给轮胎放气，大致就是这个意思。

And it was it was a temporary measure in order to prevent some sort of catastrophic unwind and to slowly let the air out of the tire, which is sort of what you think.

对吧？

Right?

如果贝森特和沃什试图管理美国国债收益率，就像赛勒试图管理他所有的利益相关者一样，慢慢解除一些杠杆，这就是他们慢慢解除杠杆的方式。

If if if Bessent and Warsh are trying to manage Treasury yields the way Sailor's trying to manage all of his stakeholders and kind of unwind some of this leverage slowly, this is how they are unwinding some of this slowly.

他们最不希望看到的就是日本央行像市场一样抛售大量美国国债，推高收益率。

And the last thing they want is the Bank of Japan just like market selling a whole bunch of treasuries and shooting up yield.

所以他们需要设立这个机制，让这种解除杠杆的过程更加平稳地发生。

So they need to put in this facility in order to make that unwind happen much more gracefully

是的。

Yep.

并且缓慢地、随着时间推移。

And slowly and over time.

这就是正在发生的事情吗？

That's what's happening?

这正是正在发生的事情。

That's exactly what's happening.

这和量化宽松不太一样。

It's it's not the same as QE.

所以如果这是量化宽松的话，那美联储就会在收益率曲线的任何位置去买债券，然后把它们放到自己的资产负债表上。

So if if this was QE, what it would look like is the Fed, you know, going out and essentially buying buying bonds at any, you know, part of the yield curve, putting them on their balance sheet.

那是在从市场上移除久期，基本上就是在人为地压低收益率曲线。

That's removing duration from the market and essentially sort of, like, artificially suppressing, you know, the yield curve.

所以这不像量化宽松那么纯粹，但有点像在提前应对那个不得不真正压低收益率曲线的时点。

So it's it's not as pure as just, like, QE, but it's sort of, like, trying to get ahead of, like, this point where they would have to actually suppress the yield curve.

从某种程度上说，可以说他们是在通过不让这些国债进入自由市场来压低收益率。

In some ways, could say they're sort of suppressing it by just not letting these treasuries come to the free market.

对吧？

Right?

他们是在说，希望这些国债被卖掉。

They're saying want them sold.

别拿到我们这里来。

Don't bring them to us.

对。

Yeah.

我们不想在市场上看到这些。

We don't wanna see those on the market.

咱们在幕后偷偷操作吧。

Let's do it behind the scenes in a backdoor way.

我们会给你一些美元。

We'll give you some dollars.

你知道吗？

You know?

是的。

Yes.

美联储在印钱，把这些资产暂时放在他们的资产负债表上，作为对这些国家的贷款，但别卖，就是别卖你们的国债。

The Fed is printing money and putting these, you know, assets temporarily on their balance sheet as a loan to these these other countries, but don't sell just don't sell your treasuries.

我们会给你一些流动性。

We'll give you some liquidity.

你知道，这其实在传递一个信号，就是伊朗的战争，还有世界各地正在发生的其他冲突，已经开始影响到亚洲市场了，而且是最先受到影响的。

You know, it just signals that there's that this war in in Iran, these other wars that are happening around the world, you know, this is starting to impact, you know, the Asian markets, you know, first.

这种情况也有可能波及欧洲，欧洲也是大量进口能源的地区。

There's a chance that this can also impact Europe, which is another area where where they import a lot of their energy.

所以还有其他潜在的担忧，这有点像，你知道，我不想说，这就像……

So there's other potential concerns, and it's kind of like this, you know you know, I don't wanna It's a

连锁反应。

daisy chain.

都是相互关联的。

It's all connected.

所以，事情是这样的。

So here here's the thing.

比如，人们觉得美国是石油净出口国，拥有大量自然资源，所以伊朗的事情影响不到他们。

Like, people think of The US, oh, The US doesn't is a net exporter of oil, has a ton of natural resources, you know, Iran doesn't affect them.

哦，好吧。

Oh, okay.

也不影响美国，但会影响日本，因为日本98%的石油都是进口的。

It doesn't, but it does affect Japan who imports 98% of their oil.

而且，日本持有的美国国债比任何国家都多，几乎占全球国债的4%。

And woah, Japan, it turns out, holds more treasuries than any other country in the world, and they have about, you know, almost 4% of all treasuries.

而这也确实影响到美国，所以说到底都是相互牵连的，对吧？

And that does affect The US, so it's all very interconnected, isn't it?

都是连在一起的。

All connected.

都是联在一起的，这确实很有趣。

It's all connected, and it's it's very interesting.

这里有点像打地鼠的游戏，特朗普政府得稳住局面，让收益率曲线以更有序的方式重新调整。

There's a little bit of a game of, like, whack a mole, you know, that the Trump administration has to play here to kind of keep things orderly and and sort of let the yield curve kind of reprice in a more orderly fashion.

所以，是的，这绝对是我们正在密切关注的事情。

So, yeah, definitely something we're we're keeping an eye on.

日元和纳斯达克之间确实存在这种关联。

There is this relationship between the yen and the Nasdaq.

这有点像一种反向关系。

It's kind of like an inverse relationship.

你在这张图表上看到了什么？

What are you seeing in this chart?

对。

Yeah.

所以这是日元兑美元与纳斯达克的关系。

So this is a yen dollar versus the Nasdaq.

纳斯达克是蓝色的。

Nasdaq is blue.

日元兑美元是红色的。

Yen dollar is is red.

这种关系通常是，如果日元兑美元走弱，纳斯达克往往会走强。

And the relationship tends to work where if yen dollar weakens, typically, Nasdaq strength strengthens.

这就是这里的反向关系，部分原因是套利交易。

That's kind of the inverse relationship here, and that is partly due to carry trades.

所以当日元贬值时，人们倾向于借入日元，然后把资金投到其他地方，以获取更高的收益。

So when when the yen weakens, people want to borrow in yen and then take that capital and put it somewhere else where they can get get a higher yield.

他们通常会把资金投入纳斯达克，投入AI相关的交易。

Where where they putting that, you know, oftentimes into the Nasdaq, into the AI trade.

所以当日元走弱时，这对纳斯达克和AI交易是有利的。

And so when yen weekends, that can be good for the, you know, Nasdaq AI trade.

而历史上我们看到的正是这种情况。

And that's historically what we what we've been seeing.

有趣的是，由于这种联动，你可以从图表上看到，红线在图表最右侧明显上升。

What's kind of interesting is the be because of this coordination, there's you can see on that chart, the red line is coming up pretty significantly on the far right side of the chart.

这就是刚刚发生的干预，是美国财政部和日本财务省之间的协调干预。

That's the intervention that just played out, the coordinated intervention between the US Treasury and the Ministry of Finance.

他们虽然推高了日元，但纳斯达克在那段时间实际上也上涨了，这挺有意思的。

So they strengthened the yen, but actually the the Nasdaq, you know, rallied, you know, during that period, which is kind of interesting.

纳斯达克在经历了大约10%的回调后，似乎正在反弹。

It's kind of the Nasdaq rallying out of a a a 10% or so sell off.

所以我想搞清楚的是，这种情况是不是特例？

So the thing I'm trying to figure out is is that sort of an idiosyncratic thing?

这有点像从急剧下跌中出现的V型反弹。

It's kind of a bounce, a v shaped bounce out of a out of a sharp sell off.

这是不是仅仅和公司盈利、利润率以及AI领域的生产力有关？

Is it related to just sort of corporate earnings and and and margins and productivity in the AI trade?

这是持久的现象，还是这种负相关可能会突然反转，要么日元保持强势而纳斯达克下跌，要么纳斯达克保持强势而日元兑美元再次走弱，这种交易模式反复出现？

Is it a durable thing, or is this inverse correlation going to, like, snapback potentially and either the yen stays stays strong and Nasdaq, you know, sells off or, you know, Nasdaq stay stays strong and we see the the yen yen dollar actually weaken again and sort of that trade just kinda keeps keeps coming back.

所以这确实值得关注。

So something definitely to to to keep an eye on.

我还想提一点，2023年这种负相关之所以更强，部分原因是日本十年期国债和美国十年期国债的利差大约为3.4%。

One thing I'll I'll mention too is part of the reason, you know, this coral this inverse correlation was much was even stronger back in 2023 is the spread between the sort of ten year in Japan and the the ten year in The US was about 3.4%.

这个利差相当可观，足以支撑套息交易。

So that's that's a really healthy spread to to to feed that carry trade.

我们确实经历过套息交易的平仓，我记得是在2023年8月，当时出现了一些调整，但利差一直在缩小。

We did have, like, an unwind of that carry trade sort of and I think it was August 2023 and sort of a little bit of a reset there, but that spread has been dropping.

现在大概只有1.9%了。

It's it's down to about 1.9% now.

所以我认为利差交易仍然有吸引力，但就其吸引力程度来说，随着日本收益率上升，它确实在逐步减弱。

So that makes you know, I don't think I think the carry trade is still pretty attractive, but, you know, just in terms of how attractive it is, it it is coming down a little bit as yields in Japan rise.

我们聊了通胀。

We talked about inflation.

我们还聊了日元和美元，以及正在发生的类似QE宽松的关系。

We talked about the yen and the dollar and the QE Lite sort of relationship that's happening.

宏观上你关注的第三个点是黄金。

The third thing you're watching in the macro is gold.

所以，自这一切和日元干预以来，黄金已上涨约15%。

So gold has been up roughly 15% since all of this and the yen intervention.

这是在收益率上升的同时发生的，挺有意思。

That's happening while yields rise, which is kind of interesting.

那这种情况是应该发生的吗？

And, like, is that supposed to happen?

你知道吗？

You know?

国债应该是安全资产，但为什么黄金涨了15%？

Treasuries are supposed to be the safe asset, but why is why is gold going up 15%?

你觉得这意味着什么？

What do you think that means?

黄金现在在告诉我们什么？

What is gold telling us right now?

这里的情况挺有意思的。

There's a it's kind of an interesting setup here.

因为这种类似量化宽松的政策，你可能会看到这或许在唤醒黄金市场，人们看着这项政策会说，你不可能把所有事情都控制得井井有条，而且通胀会结构性走高。

So because of this kind of QE Lite policy, you could kinda see that maybe this is kind of awakening the gold market, and people are looking at this policy and saying, well, you're just not gonna be able to to kind of, like, keep all of this in order, and there's going to be structurally higher inflation.

所以，你知道，黄金从低点开始上涨。

And so, you know, gold sees sees a move here off the lows.

它确实跌过，我想大概跌到3800左右。

It did trade down, I think, around to 3,800 or so.

所以自从去年那波大涨之后，它已经经过了相当不错的冷却期。

So it's had a pretty good cooling off period since that big rally last year.

而且，你知道，这是对这个情况的一种看法。

And, you know, that that's that's one take on this.

另一种看法是中国那边其实已经开始重新向系统注入流动性了。

The other take is that China has actually started to add liquidity back to the system over there.

我们在去年的节目里好像也聊过这个，当时黄金交易正在火热进行。

And we we talked about this, I think, on the show last year when when the gold trade was was really ripping.

你知道，这到底是一种货币贬值的交易，还是更像是中国流动性以及中国投资界对黄金的偏好？

You know, is this the debasement trade, or is this almost like Chinese liquidity and desire within, you know, the Chinese kind of investment community to to hold gold.

他们以前把房地产当作那种投机性资产，大量超额流动性都会流向那里。

They previously used real estate as kind of, like, the sort of speculative asset where a lot of, like, excess liquidity flows.

现在看来这些资金真的转向黄金了。

It seems like that's really now moved to gold.

所以我觉得可能两种因素都在起作用，人们开始嗅到这种‘准量化宽松’政策的味道，以及它未来可能意味着什么。

And so I think that's there's probably a little bit of both playing out here where people are start sniff starting to sniff out this kind of QE Lite policy and what that potentially means going forward.