萨勒尔回来了：这对市场结构有何影响？

今天的问题是，加密货币市场是否刚刚发生了 regime shift？

The question today, did we just get a regime shift in crypto markets?

今天是2026年3月18日。

It is 03/18/2026.

欢迎收看这份报告。

Welcome to the report.

我们迎来了Saylor的回归。

We got Saylor back.

他就是迈克尔·塞勒。

That is Michael Saylor.

他带着30亿美元的比特币买入回归了。

He's back with a $3,000,000,000 Bitcoin buy.

这是一笔重大的购买。

This is a material purchase.

这是熊市中的首次此类操作。

It's the first ever in a bear market.

这意味著什么？

What does that mean?

此外，自伊朗战争爆发以来，比特币已上涨了17%。

Also, Bitcoin is up 17% since the war in Iran started.

与此同时，纳斯达克下跌了1%，黄金下跌了4.2%，而加密货币似乎比过去几个月都要强劲。

While the Nasdaq is down 1% and gold is down 4.2%, crypto seems to be looking stronger than it has in months.

这是否意味著我们即将重回牛市行情？

Does this mean we're about to switch back to a bullish regime?

牛市行情已经开始了嗎？

Has a bullish regime already started?

今天，我们将探讨几件事：宏观和流动性状况、比特币的市场结构，如果时间允许，我和迈克或许还可以讨论一下这个热门代币近期的价格飙升，以及这向我们传递了什么信息。

Today, we're gonna be looking at a few things, the macro and liquidity conditions, the Bitcoin market structure, and if we have time, maybe Mike and I can discuss the recent price pump of this hype token and what that's telling us.

当然，请坚持看到最后，我们会回答TDR投资组合的问题：现在是时候重新入场了吗？

And stick around to the end, of course, where we answer the question for the TDR portfolio, is it time to buy back in?

迈克，今天能和你聊天真好。

Mike, it's great to chat with you today.

我今天非常享受这份报告。

I really enjoyed today's report.

在我们深入之前，我想先问你一个入门问题：伊朗战争开始以来，比特币表现得这么好，你感到惊讶吗？

I wanna ask you maybe an intro question here before we get in, which is, are you surprised at how well Bitcoin has performed since the start of the Iran war?

我的意思是，就连黄金都在下跌。

I mean, even the face of gold is down.

对吧？

Right?

黄金下跌了大约4%。

Gold is down, like, 4%.

但比特币却上涨了，怎么说呢，16%到17%。

Yet Bitcoin is up, what do we say, 16%, 17%.

是的。

Yep.

对。

Yeah.

其他市场，传统金融市场也开始慢慢跟上了。

The other markets, trad fi markets are starting to sort of catch up a little bit here.

我认为黄金从高点下跌了大约13%。

I think gold is down 13% or so from from its peak.

纳斯达克现在也下跌了大约6%。

Nasdaq's down about 6% or so now.

其实没有。

Not really.

我觉得，比特币在二月初的时候被严重超卖了。

You know, I would say, you know, we Bitcoin got pretty oversold in early February.

我们一度反弹了，但之后又回落了。

We sort of bounced out of it, then we came back down.

所以当战争爆发时，比特币又触及了一个局部低点，这在地缘政治冲突期间很常见——快速抛售，然后我们又反弹了。

So when the war started, Bitcoin hit another local low, and that's pretty common when there's geopolitical geopolitical conflict, quick sell off, and then we rebounded out of that.

从那以后，我们的涨幅已经相当显著了。

We've been, you know, up up significantly since.

其他市场则有些停滞不前。

And the rest of the markets are sort of stagnating a little bit.

这很有趣。

And it's interesting.

我的意思是，我们曾经历了一段比特币落后于所有其他市场的时期。

I mean, we went through a period where Bitcoin was was behind everything else.

黄金飙升，白银飙升，纳斯达克也在上涨，而比特币却基本一路下跌。

Gold was ripping, silver was ripping, Nasdaq ripping, and and and Bitcoin was basically down only.

这种情况已经逆转了，但我认为我们现在正更深地陷入熊市的核心，今天在这期播客中我们会探讨一些市场结构的变化。

That has reversed, but I think what's happening is we are just getting deeper into the meat of the bear market, and we kinda go through some market structure here today in today's podcast.

但，是的，这其实是可以预期的，也与2022年俄乌战争爆发时我们所看到的情况一致。

But, yeah, this is kind of expected, and it it kind of aligns with what we saw in 2022 as well when the Russia Ukraine war started.

比特币实际上曾类似地上涨了大约两个月。

Bitcoin actually had a similar rally for about two months.

但最终还是崩盘了。

It ultimately broke down.

而且，是的，让我们深入看看这些数据，因为我觉得这是一个很有趣的局面。

And, yeah, let's let's let's dive into some of the data here because I think it's an interesting interesting setup.

对。

Yeah.

我迫不及待想讨论，因为比特币这种表现方式的特殊性，我认为，今年一直是一个持续的主题。

I can't wait to do it because this, idiosyncrasy, I would say, with the way Bitcoin is performing Yep.

而且这个月我们确实看到了它在上演。

Has been a consistent theme this year, and, we're definitely seeing it this month play out.

你经常在报告中提到与2022年的这种相似性。

And this parallel to 2022, You make that parallel a lot in the report.

这也是值得深入探讨的一点。

That's something to dig into as well.

在我们深入之前，我们要感谢让本集成为可能的赞助商。

Before we do, we wanna thank the sponsor that made this episode possible.

这一条是献给在听的机构投资者的，无论你是关注金融的未来，还是工业革命的基石——我该说是下一次工业革命的基石——你都应该了解一下GALAXY。

This one's for the institutions listening, whether you're looking at the future of finance or the backbone of the industrial revolution, the next industrial revolution, I should say, you should check out GALAXY.

这就是你需要知道的名字。

That's the name you need to know.

他们提供了一个完整的加密数字金融平台。

They've got a full stack platform for crypto digital finance.

包括机构交易、托管和代币化服务。

That is institutional trading, custody, tokenization.

他们在这些领域是全球最大的公司之一。

They're among the biggest in the world in those areas.

此外，他们还拥有一个名为Heliosite的AI和HPC就绪的数据中心，获批电力高达1.6吉瓦。

And also, they have an AI ready, HPC ready data center called their Heliosite with a staggering 1.6 gigawatts of approved power.

这比一座核电站的功率还要大。

That's more than a nuclear power plant.

他们是一家上市公司。

They are a publicly traded company.

股票代码是GLXY。

GLXY is the ticker.

当然，你们都知道。

Of course, you guys know.

如果你想了解Galaxy如何帮助机构投资、构建和持续转型，去看看吧。

And if you wanna see how Galaxy helps institutions invest, build, and transform relentlessly, go check them out.

节目说明里有链接。

There's a link in the show notes.

Bankless.cc/galaxy。

Bankless.cc/galaxy.

好的。

Alright.

在开始今天的节目之前，先明确一下立场。

Level set going into today today's episode.

迈克，你在这一轮熊市中已经买入了两次。

Mike, you have purchased twice in this environment, the bear market.

你曾在不同时间点对比特币做出过判断。

You've you've called Bitcoin at various points.

对你来说，它一直处在公允市值区间内，因此你进行了这些买入。

It's been in the fair market value zone for you, hence those purchases.

你一直在等待深度价值。

You've been waiting for deep value.

你目前的现金仓位是55%，加密货币占45%。

Your cash position is 55% right now, 45% crypto.

我迫不及待想在本集结束时问你，这一周你的仓位是否有变化，以及你有没有因为害怕错过而追涨，我的朋友。

And I can't wait to ask you at the end of this episode, whether that has changed on the week and whether you have FOMO'd in my friend.

录制时，比特币的价格是71,420美元。

Bitcoin at the time of recording is $71,420.

这是它目前的交易价格。

That's where it's trading right now.

所以显然已经远高于那些公允市值水平。

So definitely up above those fair market value prices.

让我们从全球流动性开始，就像你的报告中那样。

Let's start the story with global liquidity, the way your report does.

所以，我知道你在整个周期中一直在关注这一点。

So this is something I know you've been monitoring for this entire cycle.

这是一个框架，也是你观察这些周期如何展开的视角。

It's a framework, and it's a lens through which you see these cycles playing out.

全球流动性数据告诉我们什么？

What do the global liquidity numbers tell us?

是的。

Yeah.

这是我们一直在追踪的内容，我们是从全球流动性指数中提取这些数据的。

This is something we're always tracking, and we're pulling this data from global liquidity Index.

迈克尔·霍华德所做的部分工作。

And so the work some of the work that Michael Howell does.

真正有趣的是，我们注意到这似乎正在见顶，而且自去年10月以来就一直在这样走势。

And, really, you know, what what what's interesting here is we we've been noting that it looks like this is this is rolling over, and it's it's been doing so really since, you know, going back to October period.

现在有趣的是，我们面临地缘政治冲突可能推高油价的情况。

And what's what's interesting now is we have this geopolitical conflict potentially rising oil prices.

我的意思是，油价已经显著上涨，我们正在密切关注其未来走势。

I mean, oil prices have risen significantly, and we're sort of monitoring that to see where they go from here.

但真正需要思考的是，这对我们未来的流动性状况意味着什么。

But really starting to think about what does that mean for liquidity conditions as as we move forward.

但我认为关键在于，全球流动性正在见顶回落。

But I think the takeaway here is global liquidity is rolling over.

世界各地发生的情况其实存在一些差异。

There's there's sort of some differences in what's happening in different parts of the world.

目前，中国正在向系统中注入更多流动性。

So China is adding more liquidity to the system right now.

而我们在美国看到的是流动性见顶回落，但之前出现过一点反弹。

And what we've seen in The US is sort of rolling over liquidity, but we saw a little bump there.

所以我们正在观察美国的流动性周期，可以看出，显然我们已经触及峰值。

So we're we're looking at The US liquidity cycle here, and you can see it looks, you know, looks like we clearly peaked.

我们确实经历了一次小幅反弹。

We did have a little bounce there.

这个反弹是美联储在去年12月实施的RMP计划带来的。

That that bounce is the RMP program that the Fed implemented back in December.

他们已经通过这个计划购买了超过1330亿美元的国库券，这有点像一种轻量版的量化宽松。

So they've purchased over a $133,000,000,000 of treasury bills already with that program, which is which is kind of like a, you know, QE light type of type of program.

但它主要是为回购市场和银行体系提供流动性，从而稳定那里的状况。

However, it's really just kind of providing liquidity for the repo markets and the banking sector and kinda stabilizing things there.

这有点像美联储的保护机制，旨在稳定流动性，但并没有向这些市场注入广泛的宏观流动性。

It's kinda like a fed put just in terms of kinda stabilizing liquidity, but it's really not adding sort of broad macro liquidity to these markets.

明白了。

Okay.

这就像一次管道疏通操作，你可以从它发生在市场短期端——债券市场——看出这一点。

So it's like a plumbing move, and you can tell it's a plumbing move because it's happening at the the short end of the market, the the bond market.

没错。

Correct.

这才是关键所在。

That's the key thing here.

而在较长端，我们看到利率一直在上升，实际利率也开始上涨。

And so what we're seeing on the longer end is that rates have been have been going up, and we've seen real rates starting to rise.

现在发生的情况是，盈亏平衡通胀率正在上升，这是因为伊朗的冲突。

What's what's happening now is breakeven inflation is rising, right, because of this conflict in in Iran.

实际上，名义利率的上涨速度超过了盈亏平衡通胀率，这就是为什么当前实际利率正在上升。

And, actually, the nominal rates have risen faster than the breakeven inflation, and that's why those that real rate is rising right now.

所以，我认为这正在给系统内的流动性带来更大的逆风。

So, you know, I think this is sort of putting even more headwind on just kinda liquidity in the system right now.

因此，是的，我们现在开始考虑的是油价可能会如何影响这种宏观环境。

And so, yeah, this is really what we're starting to factor in is is how is, you know, oil prices going to potentially impact sort of this macroeconomic setup.

今天我们看到PPI通胀数据出炉，远高于预期。

We saw today that PPI inflation came out and it was significantly higher than what was expected.

数据为3.4%，而预期是2.9%。

It was 3.4% versus 2.9% was expected.

PPI指的是所有生产者投入品的通胀。

PPI, that's the inflation of the inputs of all the producers.

这是来自二月的数据。

And and that's from February.

因此，这些数据是在这场冲突和油价上涨之前产生的。

So that data is prior to the start of this conflict and and and the rise in oil prices.

所以我们已经看到通胀上升，投入成本也在上升。

So we're already seeing, you know, inflation rising, input costs rising.

当油价数据开始反映到这些投入成本中时，会发生什么？

What's gonna happen when the the oil price data starts to get baked into those input costs?

这通常会带动CPI。

That tends to lead CPI.

而当前的情况是，美联储今天召开FOMC会议，这让他们陷入了一个非常困难的境地，我认为他们很难降息。

And the the setup there is just that, you know, the Fed the Fed has a FOMC meeting today, and it this is just putting them in a really difficult spot where I think it's gonna be really hard for them to cut rates.

这已经被市场完全排除了。

It's basically been priced completely out of the market.

所以我们认为他们很难降息。

So we think it's gonna be hard for them to cut rates.

他们不能降息，这一点很明确，因为商品通胀正在上升，油价上涨就是原因之一。

They and they can't cut rates, to be clear, because of this rising commodity inflation because of rising oil prices and such.

这就是我的看法，而且市场已经反映了这种结果。

That that's that's my take on it, and and the markets are sort of priced in that outcome.

这里有趣的是，我们刚刚调出了这张图表，它显示油价上涨实际上会导致利率下降。

What what's interesting here, we just pulled up this chart and, you know, this is showing that rising oil prices actually lead to lower interest rates.

这中间最终存在一定的滞后效应，但通常情况下是这样。

This ultimately, there's a there's sort of a a delay to how this works, but typically

历史上确实如此。

Historically, they have.

这张图表是我们从美联储经济数据平台（FRED）获取的，图中红色线表示联邦基金有效利率。

And this is a chart we we should say from from Fred that looks at federal funds effective rate in red Yep.

以及从20世纪60年代至今的原油价格。

And crude oil prices from the nineteen sixties up until now.

对。

Yep.

是的

Yeah.

所以我们这里展示的是，当油价上涨时，通常会发生通货膨胀上升，而美联储总是会回头看数据。

So what we're showing here is when when oil prices rise, what tends to happen is inflation picks up, and the Fed will always look backwards at at data.

对吧？

Right?

他们不应该去猜测未来会发生什么。

They're not supposed to sort of speculate on what they think is going to happen.

他们必须等待数据来告诉他们。

They sort of have to wait for the data to tell them.

所以现在发生的情况是，我们正在将更高的通胀纳入预期。

And so what's happening right now is we're baking in higher inflation.

目前发生的情况是，更高的油价实际上在长期来看具有通缩效应，这就是为什么利率最终会下降，因为油价上涨让人们把钱花在更高的汽油价格上，以及所有相关的投入成本，最终会抑制经济中的需求，而这正是利率最终下降的原因。

This is happening what what what that is potentially in higher oil prices are actually deflationary, actually, you know, in the longer run, and that is why the interest rates ultimately come down because higher oil prices, people are spending money on, you know, higher gas prices, all the, you know, various input costs that go into that, it ends up, you know, stifling demand, you know, ultimately in the economy, and that's ultimately what leads to the rates coming down.

所以我认为，尽管目前我们有这种通胀压力，美联储其实应该现在就开始降息。

So I actually think the Fed should be cutting, you know, even though we have this inflationary kind of impulse right now, I sorta think they should just be cutting right now.

这种情况发生的可能性极低。

It's it's highly unlikely that that's gonna happen.

相比之下，他们更有可能加息，过去油价上涨时我们就见过这种情况。

It's almost more likely that they would raise rates, and we've seen this happen in the past with oil prices rising.

他们加息，好的。

They raise Okay.

所以，有两件相互矛盾的事情，我想。

So there's two, like, confounding, like, things, I guess.

他们进退两难。

They're rock and hard place.

对吧？

Right?

所以，你说历史上当油价上涨时，美联储必须降息，但你又说石油等大宗商品通胀以及整体通胀上升会让美联储更不愿意降息，你到底想说什么？顺便问一下，目前市场对降息有什么看法？

So, yeah, you're saying historically when oil prices rise, the Fed has to cut, and yet you're also saying that increasing commodity inflation in oil and just increasing inflation generally, you know, makes it the Fed more resistant to So cutting what are you saying happens in, like, and it by the way, what's the market saying about rate cuts right now?

他们预测会降息吗？

Are they predicting rate cuts?

我知道特朗普甚至施加了持续的政治压力。

I know Trump has even put in continued political pressure.

我看到他本周发表了一项声明，大意是美联储早就该降息了。

I saw a statement he made this week that something to the effect of the Fed already should have been Right.

降息。

Cutting rates.

就连幼儿园的孩子都会明白这一点。

Even kindergartener would, like, know this.

而且他的新主席就要上任了。

Like, you know, like and so and his new new chair is coming in.

那么，你觉得这一切会如何收场？

So how do you think this all resolves?

在我看来，他们的设定是无法降息的。

Well, the the setup in my view is that they're not gonna be able to cut.

我会关注今天下午的新闻发布会，看看鲍威尔会怎么说。

You know, I'm I'm gonna be watching the the press conference this afternoon to see what Powell says.

我认为他们想要降息会非常困难。

And I I think it's gonna be really hard for them to cut.

而且我们会开始看到，尤其是如果油价持续高位，这将开始影响经济增长。

And what we're gonna start to see, especially if oil prices stay stay high, is that that's gonna start to impact, you know, growth.

我们已经观察到增长放缓，即使在那之前就已经如此。

We're already we're already observing slowing growth, you know, even before.

在这一切发生之前，我就对这个宏观环境相当看空。

I was pretty bearish on this macro setup even before all this.

所以在我看来，他们的做法是拖延得太久，而我们正逐渐陷入流动性陷阱。

And so the setup to me is like them sort of waiting too long and us, you know, kind of bleeding into a liquidity trap here.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

他们正在做大量基础性工作，以防止出现流动性危机。

They're doing a lot of plumbing work to prevent, like, a a liquidity crisis.

因此，市场可能只是经历一种更缓慢的衰退，这正是我们在2022年看到的情况。

So it could potentially just be sort of a slower, you know, bleed for the markets, and that's kinda what we saw in 2022.

这就是为什么我不断回到2022年的情况。

And that's why I kinda keep coming back to, you know, what we saw in 2022.

市场下跌了。

Markets come down.

他们无法降息。

They can't they can't cut.

2022年时的情况是不同的，那时他们正在加息。

It was a different setup where they were hiking in 2022.

但我们还是拭目以待吧。

But let, you know, let's see.

我的基本预期是，当前的市场环境非常不理想。

I that's that's sort of my base case is that this is this is a very, like, not a great setup for markets.

当我们同时考虑到我们一直讨论的AI通缩因素时，我看到的是一种物价上涨与增长放缓并存的局面，这具有滞胀特征。

When when you factor in, like, the AI deflation that we've been talking about as well, it just looks to me like you have rising prices and slowing growth at the same time that's stagflationary.

这对市场来说可不是什么好局面。

Not not a great setup for for markets.

你是在说，这对风险资产来说是个绝佳的环境。

A great setup for risk on assets in particular is is what you're saying.

好的。

Okay.

所以让我简单总结一下这个观点。

So just to kind of recap this story.

情况是，你看到全球流动性下降了，尤其是美国，这意味着全球净流动性下降，尽管中国正在增加流动性，但美国的流动性正在减少。

So the story is what you're seeing, global liquidity turned down, particularly in The US, which means a net global liquidity turned down even while China is increasing liquidity because The US is kind of decreasing liquidity.

这在一定程度上起到了对冲作用。

It's counterbalancing that.

顺便说一句，我们多次在TDR节目中指出，美国流动性是观察加密货币价格的关键因素。

And by the way, we've made the point often on TDR episodes that US liquidity is the main thing to watch with respect to crypto prices.

我认为你持这样的观点：美国流动性增加会导致加密货币价格上涨。

I think you're in the camp of believing that US liquidity equals higher crypto prices.

中国流动性呢？

China liquidity?

不一定如此。

Not necessarily so.

也许中国流动性更像黄金价格或其他大宗商品价格。

Maybe China liquidity more like gold prices or or other kind of commodity prices.

我们现在看到了美国流动性的短暂上升，但你说这只是暂时的。

Now we have seen a brief US liquidity spike up, but you're saying that's plumbing.

这不是一种结构性力量。

That's not that's not a structural force.

你知道这是暂时的，是因为它发生在短期端，而长期端利率正在上升，我们还可以看到十年期通胀保值债券的实际收益率，今年实际收益率实际上在上升。

And the reason you know it's plumbing is because it's happening on the short end, while on the long end, interest rates are going up, and then we could see in the ten year tips par real yield, we can see that real yield is actually increasing this year.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便问一下，这意味着通胀是在增加还是减少？

Does this mean by the way, does this mean inflation is increasing or decreasing?

通胀保值债券告诉我们什么？

What what is the TIPS telling us?

我每次看TIPS时都会感到困惑。

I always get confused when I look at TIPS.

现在它向我们展示的是，盈亏平衡通胀预期因油价上涨而上升。

What that's showing us right now is that breakeven inflation expectations are rising because of rising oil prices.

只要名义利率没有更快上涨，实际利率实际上会下降。

And real rates would actually drop as long as if the nominal rates weren't rising faster.

所以当油价开始大幅上涨时，长期债券的涨幅实际上超过了通胀预期。

So what what sort of happened as oil prices started to really ramp up is long bonds actually rose more than the inflation expectations.

所以它正在迅速赶上来。

So it's catching up quick.

要让实际利率下降，我们需要看到名义利率回落，或者至少停止上涨，而盈亏平衡通胀率继续上升。

For for real rates to drop, we would need to see the nominal rates come down or just stop rising as breakeven inflation keeps keeps rising.

好的。

Okay.

所以从结构性角度来看，你会看到这个图表中的这条黄橙色线会继续下降。

So you see basically this chart, this kind of yellow orange line here will continue to go down, like, from from a structural perspective.

因此，全球流动性转向下行，对风险资产不利，对加密货币也不利，这就是这里的总结。

And so global liquidity turned down and bad for risk on assets, bad for crypto is is the summary here.

对。

Correct.

让我们看一下链上数据和市场结构，然后我们再来看萨莱尔的大额买入。

Let's take a look at the on chain data and the market structure, and then we'll get to Saylor's big purchases

好的。

Yep.

这可能改变了一些东西。

Which may have changed something.

我不确定他们是否在你的想法中改变了什么，或者让你对某些事情产生了疑问，但让我们看看比特币目前的价格。

I don't Maybe they changed something in your mind or caused you to question something, but let's look at the Bitcoin price right now.

我觉得你正在试图将现在的情况与2022年作比较。

I think you're trying to you're comparing this to 2022.

你在这张图表中看到了什么？

What did you see in this chart?

是的。

Yeah.

所以回到2022年的类比，有趣的是，从每个周期的价格高点算起，进入熊市第161天时。

So just coming back to the 2022 analog here, what's interesting is, you know, a hundred and sixty one days into the bear market measured from the the price peak of each cycle.

我们现在正处于一个非常相似的位置。

We're at, like, a very similar, you know, spot right now.

所以2022年时，价格下跌了约41%。

So down about 41% back in 2022.

在熊市第161天时，我们下跌了39%。

A hundred and sixty one days into the bear market, we were down 39%.

所以这看起来非常相似。

So that that looks pretty similar.

另一个相似之处是，我认为2022年2月俄乌战争爆发，当时引发了比特币的反趋势反弹，价格上涨了约34%，并一度威胁到当时的50周移动平均线，看起来我们可能要重回牛市，但随后被拒绝了。

And then the other similarity here is, you know, I think it was in February '22 that the war between Russia and Ukraine started, and that kicked off a counter trend rally for Bitcoin at the time, went up about 34%, and it threatened the the fifty week moving average at the time, which looked like we might be going back into a bull, and then got rejected.

然后，直到大约两年后，我们才真正重新收回了那个水平。

And then it was about a two year, you know, two years of bear market before we actually reclaimed, you know, that level.

哇。

Wow.

所以当时出现了

So there was

一次反弹行情。

a a relief rally.

我只是说，是的。

I I just Yeah.

我依稀记得2022年那次反弹持续了两个月，涨幅达到了34%。

Distantly remember this in in 2222 that lasted two months, and that was a a plus 34% rally.

当时人们的情绪是，熊市结束了。

And people at the time, was there the the sentiment that, okay, the bear market's over.

我们回来了，伙计。

We're we're we're back, baby.

是的。

Yes.

而且，俄罗斯还在购买比特币。

And and also, like, Russia was buying Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

战争还在继续。

The war is going on.

俄罗斯在购买比特币。

Russia was buying Bitcoin.

他们被踢出了SWIFT系统。

There's they got cut out of Swift.

美国冻结了，是的。

The US was freezing Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，他们的国债等等都被冻结了。

You know, their their treasuries and all of their cut out.

Swift。

Swift.

也许他们会接受比特币来支付石油和贸易。

Maybe they're gonna accept Bitcoin for for oil and and trade.

当时有一个小故事，确实有看涨情绪，但后来这种情绪逐渐消退了。

And so there was a little bit of a narrative, and there was there was definitely bullish sentiment and that it sort of broke down from there.

感觉今天我们在重演类似的故事。

And it feels like we've got a similar story playing out today.

我们正处于一场地缘政治冲突中，或者说，这发生在熊市开始大约五个月后。

We have a geopolitical conflict or about, you know, roughly five months into the the the bear market.

我们正在经历一波逆趋势的反弹。

We're getting that counter trend rally.

我认为今天最大的不同是我们已经进入了公允价值区间。

I think the big difference today is that we've already gone to a fair value zone.

所以我认为我们实际上

So I think we're actually

没错。

That's right.

我们目前处于这个熊市的阶段，比2022年同期还要更深。

We're actually farther in this bear market than we were at the same stage in 2022.

所以我认为这是关键的不同点，而且我们确实正在看到这种逆趋势反弹。

So I think that's kind of the the key difference, and and we've we're we're we're seeing that counter trend rally.

我们一度涨到了大约76左右，接下来我们会密切关注走势，看看接下来会如何发展。

We got up to, like, 76 or so, and we're gonna monitor this to see kinda where we where we head from here.

你现在也在关注短期持有者的成本线，这我们通常不会看。

Now you're also looking at the short term holder cost basis, which we don't usually look at.

你这么做是因为想知道短期内会发生什么吗？

Is this because you're wondering what's going to happen in the near term?

是的。

Yes.

所以这其实是在思考，我们已经看到比特币出现了一些强势表现。

So this is really kinda thinking about, you know, we've we've seen some strength in Bitcoin.

我们已经持续反弹了将近六周左右。

We've been rallying now for almost six weeks or so.

你知道，这里的阻力位可能出现在哪里？

You know, where where might resistance come into play here?

短期持有者的成本线通常在熊市中起到阻力作用。

And the short term holder cost basis tends to, you know, serve as resistance in in bear markets.

大约是85千美元。

That is about 85 k.

什么是短期持有者？

What's a short term holder?

短期是指一年、两年左右吗？

Short Is that, like, a year, two years?

低于155。

Under a 155.

所以大概是六个月左右。

So it's roughly six months or so.

六个月。

Six months.

好的。

Okay.

是的。

Yep.

所以呢。

So yeah.

所以他们的成本价是8.5万美元。

So their their cost basis is 85 k.

在熊市中，这个价位往往构成阻力位，你知道的。

That tends to serve as resistance, you know, in bear markets.

所以这是一个人们需要记住的数字。

So that's a that's a number to for people to keep in mind.

另一件有趣的事情，我们在之前的节目中也讨论过，就是持仓者的成本价。

The other interesting thing, and we've talked about this in in prior episodes, is the sort of the holder cost basis.

我们观察这个数据。

We we look at this.

我们想了解哪里存在买入回调的区域，比如人们在抄底的位置。

We wanna understand where there are pockets, where people were buying dips, things like that.

这个买入回调的区间就在8.3万到8.5万美元之间。

And this was the buy the the dip zone between 83 and 85 k.

在比特币刚开始下跌、市场刚进入熊市时，那些不认为我们处于熊市的人，正是在这个区域买入了。

All the people that sort of didn't think we were in a bear market when Bitcoin first started selling off early in this bear market, they were buying this this dip here.

我们估计，大约有4.4%的流通供应量是在这个区间被吸纳的。

And about we think about 4.4% of the supply was actually scooped up in that zone.

这与短期持有者的成本基础相吻合。

So that pairs up with the short term holder cost basis.

你知道，这让我有了一些信心，或者至少表明，如果我们真的回升到这些水平，或者回到八万出头的低位，那将是一个很难突破的关口。

And, you know, that that kinda gives me some confidence or at least it starts to point the probability that that might be the zone if we were even to push to those levels or early low eighties would be a would be a tough threshold to to push through.

所以，在八万出头到八万五千美元这个区间，要重新回到这个水平是非常困难的。

So the the low eighties into the mid eighties is a a really tough threshold to return to in this.

你说这4.4%的供应量不仅是在那个价格区间购买的，而且你认为是在2025年11月到2月上旬之间。

And you said 4.4% of the supply was purchased not only in that price range, but you think between November 2025 and early February.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，基本上投资者还抱着希望，认为这只是个暂时的回调，十月的事件会反弹，牛市会继续。

You know, just basically investors holding out hope that this was just a you know, the the October event was going to recover and we would resume the bull market.

这本应是一次超级周期事件，但从目前的情况看，它并不像那样。

This was a super cycle type of a event, which it doesn't look like it on this side of things.

现在我们来谈谈另一个可能改变局面的参与者，那就是Strategy公司的迈克尔·塞勒。

Now let's talk about another entrant which could change things, which is mister Michael Saylor of Strategy.

你指出了一点，这在之前的熊市中从未发生过：迈克尔·塞勒这位大买家，不知怎么搞到了现金，可以在熊市中大举买入。

So this is something that you point out that didn't happen in previous bear markets is Michael Saylor, a big buyer, has somehow acquired dry powder to deploy into the bear market.

明白吗？

Okay?

我觉得你说过，到目前为止已经投入了30亿美元，总潜在规模可达38亿美元。是的。

And I think you said it's like 3,000,000,000 in deployment so far with a total of a potential 3,800,000,000.0 Yeah.

我相信。

I believe.

是的。

Yep.

谈谈这个买入吧。

Talk about this buy.

他怎么获得这笔资金的？

How is he getting the capital?

这个结构是怎样的？它会对局势产生什么影响？

What's the structure of this, and how does this affect things?

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣，有点出人意料。

This is interesting, somewhat unexpected.

我一直关注他们推出的一些新产品，但这周花的时间更多。

I I've been following what they've been doing with some of these new products, but really spent more time this week.

而且，你知道，我知道你也知道，上周我们还在讨论与MicroStrategy及其持仓相关的风险以及潜在的清算问题。

And, you know, I know you know, last week, we were talking about, you know, risks related to MicroStrategy and their holdings and potential liquidation.

这周，我们讨论的是潜在的上行风险，因为他已经重返市场。

This week, we're talking about, you know, potential risk to the upside because now he's back in the market.

所以，我想确认一下，我们确实承认这一点。

So so I I wanna acknowledge that that that's, you know, the we're acknowledging that.

所以，这确实很有趣。

So, yeah, this is interesting.

历史上，Saylor在熊市中一直无法获得资金。

So Saylor historically has not been able to get his hands on capital in bear markets.

他只拥有一家。

It's most only had one of them.

他只有一家。

He's only had one.

是的。

Yeah.

他只获得过一次。

He's only had one.

他大约在2020年左右开始了这个策略。

He started this strategy in, like, 2020 or so.

没错。

Correct.

对。

Yep.

所以上一次是在2022年，当时没人愿意给他任何资金去部署。

So the other time would have been 2022, and no one was willing to give him any capital to deploy in 2022.

没错。

Right.

他们确实做了几笔小额购买，但那主要是靠他们软件业务产生的现金流。

And they were you know, they they made a few per few small purchases, but that was mostly just with whatever cash flow is kicking off from their software business.

这次不一样。

This is different.

所以他现在做的，是成功筹集了大量资金，通过这个新的STRC产品，金额接近40亿美元。

So what he's doing now is he's been able to raise a significant amount of capital, almost $4,000,000,000 with this new STRC product.

这是一种固定收益产品，你知道的，属于当前微观策略资本结构中的固定收益率产品。

This is a fixed income, you know, fixed yield product that is within the micro or the strategy, you know, capital stack now.

他们发行的是优先股。

These are preferred preferred shares that they're issuing.

我得给迈克尔·塞拉点个赞，他做到了这件事。

And, you know, I gotta give Michael Saylor credit for pulling this off.

这简直是一些疯狂的金融工程，我觉得这里正在发生这样的事情。

Like, this is some crazy financial engineering, I think, that's that's happening here.

但他现在做的，本质上是把这款产品推向市场。

But what he's doing is essentially, you know, putting this product out there.

他提供的收益率是11.5%，所以你知道，我不清楚你还能在哪里找到11.5%的收益。

He's making the yield it's 11 and a half percent, so you know, I don't know where else you're getting 11 and a half percent

而且这是有保障的。

And that's guaranteed.

这是固定的。

That's fixed.

这种优先股工具的收益率对所有投资者都是有保障的。

That yield is guaranteed to all investors in this in this preferred stock type instrument.

没错。

Correct.

因此，这种产品的需求相当大，对吧？

And so there's been quite a bit of demand for this, Right?

人们说，好吧。

People are saying, okay.

我愿意接受这11.5%的收益率。

I'll take that 11.5%.

我认为需求之所以这么好，其中一个原因是他们实际上把大约两年的股息支付金额作为现金预留出来，以此向市场表明：

One of the reasons I think that there's been pretty good demand is they actually took about two years worth of the dividend payments and put it on this you know, they put that as cash on the sidelines to sort of say to the market, hey.

我们有足够的资本来支付未来一到两年的股息。

We have enough capital to pay these dividends for the next year or two.

我认为这给了人们一些信心，促使人们前来购买这些STRC股票，而这正是Saylor用来购买更多比特币的资金桥梁，而他确实正在这么做。

I think it's given people some confidence that people have come in and purchased up these these STRCs shares, And this is basically the capital bridge for Saylor to then go and buy more Bitcoin, which is exactly what he's doing.

所以上周，他购买了15.7亿美元的比特币。

So last week, he bought 1,570,000,000.00 worth.

前一周，他购买了约12亿美元的比特币。

He bought about 1,200,000,000.0 the week before.

所以，问题是，这确实是新情况。

And so, you know, the question is, like, this is this is new.

对吧？

Right?

我们之前没见过这种情况。

We haven't seen it.

这张图表显示了当前熊市右侧出现的这些大额交易，而在2022年几乎看不到类似情况。

Here's a chart showing just, you know, the the big circles that we're seeing now in a bear market on the right side of the chart and and almost none back in 2022.

因此，我们必须将这一点纳入市场结构的考量中。

So we have to factor this in to, you know, market structure.

我们刚刚讨论了市场结构。

We just talked about market structure.

而且

And

这些圆圈都是策略性购买吗？

These circles are all strategy purchases?

没错。

Correct.

没错。

Correct.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.