Signs of a Cycle Bottom?

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

欢迎收看今天的报告。

Welcome to the report.

今天的问题是：如果6万美元是本轮低点，会怎样？

The question today, what if 60 k was the cycle bottom?

迈克一会儿要戴上他的看涨眼镜。

Mike here is gonna put on his bull goggles for a minute.

他平时不常戴这个，但今天我们来探讨一下，低点可能已经出现了的可能性。

He doesn't often wear those, but we're gonna explore the possibility that the bottom is already in.

今天是5月20日。

It is May 20.

今天报告里我们会看几件事。

A few things we're gonna look at in today's report.

实际的资本数据、供应占比和利润，跟今年二月时假设6万美元是低点的情况做个对比。

The realized cap numbers and the percent of supply and profit compared to what that 60 k was the cycle low back in February.

我认为最有说服力的观点是，实际资本支出可能已经触底。

I think the strongest case you can make is potentially that the realized cap looks like it it may have bottomed.

今天我们就会深入分析这一点。

We're gonna get into this today.

还有一些其他数据点，我们之前也接近过。

There's some other data points that we sort of got close to.

我们一直在跟踪好几种周期判断指标，大多数都没显示出宏观周期低点该出现的信号，但确实有几个指标发出了信号，今天我们会一一过一遍。

You know, there's a bunch of different cycle awareness metrics that we're tracking, and, you know, most of them have not fired for where we would think a macro cycle low would hit, but but there's certainly a few, and we're gonna go through those today.

对。

Yeah.

关于实际资本支出这个指标，我觉得我们以前在TDR报告里没展示过，这是你第一次把它带进报告里。

The realized cap one, I don't think we've shown that on TDR reports, and this is the first time you brought it into a report.

这个指标对我来说非常关键。

That's a that's a pretty key signifier for me.

它在多个周期里都表现稳定，现在看来可能确实存在牛市的迹象，我们这就来详细看看。

I mean, it's held up across multiple cycles, and it is showing that maybe there is a bull scenario here, so we'll get into that.

在开始之前，先感谢我们的朋友和赞助商银河公司。

Before we do, gotta thank our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY.

这段内容是给关注机构资本的听众准备的。

This is one for the institutional capital listening right now.

无论你是关注金融的未来——加密货币，还是下一代工业革命的基石——人工智能，银河公司都是你必须了解的名字。

Whether you're looking at the future of finance, which is crypto, or the backbone of the next industrial revolution, which is AI, GALAXY is the name you need to know.

他们不仅是加密和数字资产领域的全球领导者，也是支撑我们身边所有人工智能的数据中心基础设施的领军者。

They are a global leader, not just in crypto and digital assets, but also in data center infrastructure that's powering all the AI we see around us.

银河的独特之处在于，他们在加密领域做业务，同时也在加密领域布局人工智能。

What's unique about GALAXY is they do crypto, and they also do AI on the crypto side.

在机构交易、托管和代币化方面，他们都是业内顶尖的。

It's institutional trading, custody, tokenization, best in the biz at that.

在人工智能方面，他们拥有庞大的数据中心，其中Helios站点已获批的电力容量高达16亿瓦。

On the AI side, massive data centers, a Helios site with 1.6 gigawatts of approved power.

这是一家上市公司。

They are a publicly traded company.

GLXY是股票代码。

GLXY is the ticker.

如果你想了解银河如何帮助你布局加密货币和人工智能领域的机构资本，不妨去官网看看。

If you wanna see how Galaxy can help you deploy institutional capital in crypto and AI, go check them out.

链接在节目笔记里。

There's a link in the show notes.

好了，迈克，咱们直接进入正题。

Alright, Mike, let's get right into the meat of this.

也许我该先说说我们现在所处的位置。

Maybe I should just establish where we are.

现在熊市已经持续了七个半月，时间过得真快，尤其是当事情还挺有意思的时候。

So we are seven and a half months into the bear cycle, time flies when you're having fun.

是的。

Yeah.

比特币距离历史高点已经下跌了大约39%。

Bitcoin is about 39% off all time highs.

我们没能跌破那条200日简单移动平均线，所以实际上并没有跌破。

We failed to break down that two hundred day simple moving average, so we didn't quite break down.

你今天的图表里应该有这张图。

I think you've got a graph in today's chart.

上周我们关注的一个关键指标是短期持有者的成本均线。

And then last week, there was a key indicator we were looking at, which is the short term holder cost basis.

上周收盘价站上了短期持有者成本均线，这个数字我记得大概是79.5千左右，没错。

And we locked in one week above, a one weekly close above the short term holder cost basis, which this is just for memory, this is like 79.5 ks, something like Yep.

你说如果能连续两周、甚至三周都站稳在这条线上，就说明熊市可能见底了，至少以前的周期都是这么走的。

And so you said if we locked in a second week and then maybe a third week, that would be kind of bear market over, bear market bottom confirmed, at least that's how it's played out in previous cycles.

我们做到了吗？

Did we do that?

我们有没有连续第二周站稳？

Did we lock in the second week?

第二周并没有站稳，不过周日的收盘确实挺值得关注的，你说得对。

We did not lock in the second week, so it was a, you know, an interesting Sunday close to to be paying attention to, and you're you're correct.

如果我们连续两周收盘价都站上这个短期持有者成本线，也就是现在的78300，上周还是78900，

So if we had, you know, established two consecutive weekly closes above that short term holder cost basis, which is now 78.3 k, it was 78.9 k last week.

这个数字正在下降。

It's it's coming down.

那在熊市的这个阶段，可就太反常了，我们以前从没见过这种情况。

That would have been an anomaly that we we haven't seen sort of at this stage of a of a bear market cycle.

过去我们确实碰过或者短暂突破过这条线，但从来没连续两周收在其上方。

We have had instances where we've touched it or gone above it in the past, but we haven't gotten the two weekly closes.

所以这确实值得重点关注。

So definitely something to pay attention to.

你提到了200日均线。

You mentioned the two hundred day moving average.

目前它在市场里也扮演着阻力位的角色。

That is also, like, kind of serving as resistance right now in the market.

总的来说，情况挺有意思的。

So, you know, it's it's been interesting.

你知道，我们之前经历了一波上涨，但我觉得现在仍然处于从二月低点回调的阶段。

You know, we've we've had this this uptrend, which I would say where we are we're still kind of in this kind of retracement off of those February lows.

而且感觉动能似乎开始转向另一个方向。

And the momentum feels like it's starting to kinda shift, you know, in in the other direction.

我们还没看到明显的下行走势，虽然上行的动能已经减弱了。

We haven't seen it's sort of like we've lost the upside momentum, but we haven't really seen a big kind of pullback just yet.

但今天我们可以聊聊，我们是不是已经见底了？接着我会分享我的看法，以及各种可能性的评估。

But I think today, we can get into, you know, what are the what is the potential that we've actually bottomed, then let's get into kind of, you know, what what what is really kind of my assessment of it and and what are the probabilities point to.

有些读者联系了我们，直接问：

We've had some readers reach out and just request, hey.

给我们讲讲看涨的观点吧，如果我们真的见底了，那会是什么样子？

Give us the bull, give us the bull take, like, if we bottomed, what does that look like?

这正是本周报告想探讨的核心内容。

That was kind of the intent of this week's report.

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

我本来是希望我们能守住的。

I was I was really shooting for us.

我特别期待咱们能稳稳地维持在79500美元上方再几周，但没做到，这说明上涨动力已经停住了。

I was really hoping we would lock in, you know, another another couple weeks above that 79.5 k mode, but we didn't, so that means the momentum has stalled.

不过，这并不意味着我们会重新回到二月的低点，也不一定意味着我们会跌破二月的低点。

However, it does not mean we will revisit the lows that we saw in February, and it does not necessarily mean that we will go even lower than we saw in February.

那接下来，你能给我们讲讲看多的理由吗？

And so this is where maybe you can give us the bull case.

看多的理由不是说这个周期结束了，而是这份报告里说的：我们已经见到底部了，整个周期里不会再跌回60000美元以下，这会带来一系列影响。

The bull case being not that the cycle is over, but the bull case in this report being that we already saw the lows, that we're not going to drop below 60 again at any time in the cycle, which has implications.

如果真是这样，那对咱们该在什么价位买入比特币和加密资产，就很有参考意义了。

If that's true, it has implications for the the fair market value price you should be looking at to accumulate Bitcoin and crypto assets.

所以，如果我们真的已经见底，原因在这里。

So if we've bottomed, here's why.

我们来看看你在开场时提到的已实现市值图。

Let's take a look at the realized cap chart that you teased in the intro.

这可能是整份报告里最有意思的一张图。

So this is maybe the most interesting chart in the entire report.

这张图展示的是什么？

What are we looking at?

是的。

Yeah.

关于已实现价格，我们经常提到它。

So realized cap, we we talk a lot about realized price.

已实现市值和已实现价格类似，都是用来估算流通中所有币种的平均成本。

Realized cap realized price is sort of a proxy for the cost basis of all the coins in circulation.

已实现市值其实也是同一个概念。

The realized cap is is kind of the same thing.

它本质上是整个网络所有币种成本的总和。

It's just an aggregate of basically all the the the entire cost basis of the network.

所以整个市值，你可以理解为所有投入比特币网络的资金总和。

So all of the cap, you can think of it as all of the capital that has been invested into the Bitcoin network.

目前它略高于一万亿美元，这数字可不小。

It's a little over a trillion dollars right now, which is, you know, a pretty pretty large number.

我们这时候看这个指标，是因为可以通过它来分析资金流入和流出的情况。

The reason, you know, we're kind of looking at this at this stage is one way to kind of analyze the realized cap is you can kind of think of it as, like, capital inflow versus capital outflow.

举个例子，假设你当初以一万美元买进比特币。

So as an example of this, you know, let's say, you know, you bought Bitcoin for $10,000 or so.

你买入的价格就是你的成本，这笔一万美元会记入 realized cap 的一部分。

You sold that's your cost basis, and that's the 10,000 that would get recorded as part of the realized cap as that goes into the realized cap.

如果你后来以十万美金卖出了。

Let's say you sold that for, you know, a $100,000.

那么新买家的成本就变成了十万，而那九万美元的差价，就构成了 realized cap 的增长部分。

You the cost basis of the new buyer now is that 100,000, and the 90,000 is the change in the realized cap.

所以当有人以盈利卖出时，realized cap 就会上升，这就像一笔资本流入。

So the realized cap goes up when someone sells at a gain, sort of like a capital capital inflow.

当你亏本卖出时，就像是在销毁资本。

When you sell at a loss, it's almost like you're kinda destroying capital.

对吧？

Right?

如果我以一万美元买入，后来五美元卖出，那就等于抹掉了五千美元的资本。

So if I had bought a 10 k and then I sold at at 5 k, I've kind of destroyed $5,000 of capital.

由于新买家的成本价是五千，所以实现市值现在会下降。

The realized cap is now gonna come down because the new buyer's cost basis is 5,000.

我的成本价是一万。

Mine was 10,000.

当你看到实现市值下降时，说明买入的人现在都在亏本抛售。

So when you see the realized cap coming down, it's telling you that, like, people that were buying are now selling at at a loss.

这就像是整个网络正在经历资本外流。

It's sort of like the network is experiencing capital outflows.

我们观察了过去几个周期发现，很难精准捕捉这个时机，因为价格通常会在这个指标触底前几个月就见底了，之后才会回升。

And what we've observed over the last few cycles is, you know, it's hard to kind of kind of catch this because the the price is typically gonna bottom, you know, a few months before this number actually bottoms and and then starts moving up.

所以这张图展示的就是这种情况。

So that's kind of what we can see in this chart.

在熊市的前四到五个月里，实际资本值下降了大约3.8%，现在看起来似乎已经触底了。

So the realized cap dropped about 3.8% or so over the over the over the first four four to five months of the bear market, and we can see that it it looks like it's it's possibly has has bottomed here.

这大概发生在三月底，从图表上看，确实已经见底了。

And this was just kind of, like, around the end of the end of March, and it looks like it's bottomed.

现在它已经回升了大约0.3%。

It's now up, like, point 3% or so.

这说明从那以后，我们实际上看到了资本流入。

So that's telling you that since that time, we've actually seen capital inflows.

卖亏的人变少了，看起来资本正在回流。

There's been less people that are sort of selling, you know, at losses, and it looks like we have capital inflows.

所以这是一种观察市场宏观低点的方法。

So this is one way to kinda think about, you know, kind of getting to those those macro lows.

如果你是看多的一方，看到这个数据肯定会说：有意思。

And I think if you're a bull, you definitely would look at this and say, hey.

这算是个不错的信号，说明至少大部分的损失可能已经见底了。

This is a pretty good sign that maybe we've you know, at least most of the the damage looks like it's it's possibly done.

我唯一担心的是，我们还不清楚，接下来得看看市场结构会怎么发展。

The one issue I have with it is just, you know, we we still don't know, and we're gonna get to market structure here.

我们依然不确定，宏观环境会不会再带来进一步的冲击，类似这样的情况。

We still don't know, you know, if there's more pain coming from, you know, the macro environment, things like this.

还是存在一种可能，那些我们称之为顶级买家的人，如果比特币再出现一波回调，他们可能会选择抛售。

There's still a chance that we're gonna see some of these sort of top buyers that that we call that are potentially gonna sell if we get another, you know, kind of pullback for Bitcoin.

所以接下来值得留意的是，会不会有更多人开始割肉卖出，导致实际资本值再次下滑。

So it'll be interesting to see if that happens, if more people start stepping in, you know, selling, you know, at losses, and then that realized cap starts to come down a little bit again.

拭目以待吧。

We'll see.

但我认为，从长期周期的角度来看，这个指标相当稳健，值得参考。

But I think it's a it's a pretty sturdy kind of long term cycle metric to kind of anchor to, I think.

这确实是一个稳健的长期周期指标。

It is a sturdy long term cycle metric.

这一直是我最喜欢的指标之一。

It's one of it's been one of my favorites.

所以你的意思是，现在大约一万亿的实现资本，其实就是所有比特币的持有成本，准确说是成本基础。

So you're you're saying the realized cap right now at 1,000,000,000,000 or so is basically the cost network of all of the Bitcoin in existence, the cost basis, I should say.

那比特币的市值现在是多少？

And so the market cap of Bitcoin is what?

是两千亿美元左右吗？抱歉，我说的是万亿。

Is this something like 2,000,000,000 or a trillion, excuse me?

我们现在到什么位置了？

Where are we at?

大概是一点五到一点六万亿。

One point One point five or 1.6.

明白了。

Okay.

所以成本基础是一万亿，市值是一点六万亿，你说从低点以来，实现资本只微幅上升了3.8%。

So the cost basis is one, and the the total market cap is 1.6, and you're saying we're up in terms of realized cap from the bottoms up just a tiny amount, 3.8%.

这跟之前的周期相比怎么样？

How has this compared to previous cycles?

这张图上没显示，但2022年和2018年的周期里，实现市值跌了多少？

That's what's not shown in this chart, but the 2022 cycle, the 2018 cycle, how far did realized cap fall?

在那些周期里，它是什么时候开始慢慢回升、重回正区的？

And then at what point during those cycles did it start to creep up and rebound and get back into positive territory?

那是不是意味着那些周期的底部？

Did that mark the bottom in those cycles?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这正是当前和以往熊市相比最不一样的地方。

So I think that's kind of the big difference here in terms of, like, the relative comparison to past bear markets.

2022年的时候，整个网络的实现市值成本从高点到低点下降了大约19%。

And in 2022, so the entire, like, realized cap cost basis of the network actually dropped about 19% from the peak to the the to the trough.

整个过程持续了差不多十个月左右。

It took about ten months or so to for that to play out.

如果回看2018年，实际资本化市值下跌了大约13.4%。

If we go back to 2018, the realized cap fell about 13.4%.

这一过程持续了大约八个月。

It took about eight months for this to play out.

所以，在当前这个周期里，我们只下跌了3.8%，但只用了四个月就完成了。

So, you know, in the current cycle, we're down 3.8%, and it only took about four months for that to play out.

所以，这种情况是有可能的。

So, you know, it's it's possible.

但我认为，归根结底，这还是要看市场心理和宏观前景，因为正是这些因素决定了那些在九万到十万八千美元高位入场的买家，会不会继续持有。

But I think, you know, again, this has to come back to just, like, in some ways, we're we're gonna get to a place where it's, like, more about the psychology of the market and sort of what the outlook is looking on macro, I think, because that's how we're gonna determine if some of these buyers that came in at much higher prices, you know, 92 to 108 k or so.

如果价格再往下走，我们就能看出，这批投资者是不是真的还坚定持有，我觉得是这样。

If we see a move down, we're gonna find out if if that cohort is still, you know, diamond handed and still wants to hold on to their coins, I think.

但你还是觉得，有人看到这个实际资本化市值图表，发现我们已经从低点反弹了3.8%，就会因此变得看涨，对吧？

But you still think that somebody could look at this realized cap chart and see the that we're up, you know, 3.8% from the lows and come away from that being, you know, bullish, being yeah.

他们会认为，这可能意味着我们已经见到了本轮周期的最低点？

Having a data point that maybe this may maybe we've already hit seen the lows of this cycle?

我觉得是的。

I think so.

我觉得是的。

I think so.

我觉得，说白了，我们这期讨论的核心其实是：我们是不是已经触到了宏观层面的低点。

I think it's it's it's sort of like a if anything, you know, I think the way we're sort of kind of communicating this this episode is like, you know, this is really about have we hit the macro low.

所以，接下来可能还会有一些波动。

So we may see more, you know, turbulence here.

我们现在大概在7.7万美元左右。

We're at, you know, what, roughly 77 k or so.

要达到那个水平，大概还得跌20%左右。

It would take, you know, what, about a 20% drop or so to get there.

所以，即使再出现这样的下跌，也不一定会创出新低。

So you could still have that type of move and not set, you know, a lower low

而且，迈克，这个模式也是这样的。

here And this is the pattern too, Mike.

对吧？

Right?

按以往周期的情况，你本该看到的是一个跌幅较浅的熊市。

Because what you would expect is to see, as we've seen in in previous cycles, a more shallow bear market.

对吧？

Right?

不一定是时间更短的熊市，虽然也可能如此，但肯定是个跌幅更浅的。

Not necessarily a shorter bear market, though we might also see that, but certainly a more shallow one.

这组数据正好符合这个模式。

This kind of fits that data set.

比特币持仓盈利比例也是这样。

And so does the percent of Bitcoin supply in profit.

图表上出现了一些不一样的数据，比如极低的盈利比例，这往往是市场见底的信号。

So we're seeing some different numbers on the chart, some kind of low percentages that that mark the bottom.

我们现在看到的是什么情况？

What are we looking at here?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，如果你愿意戴上看涨的眼镜，认为我们可能已经触达了本轮周期的低点，那这一点也可以作为佐证，它显示我们当时跌到了50%。

So, again, you know, if you want to put the bull goggles on and say that we've we've likely hit kind of the potential cycle low, this is another one you could point to, and it's just showing that we got to 50%.

就在二月五日那波大抛售期间，比特币总供应量中处于盈利状态的比例跌到了50%。

So, again, during that February 5 capitulation move, significant move down, the total Bitcoin supply and profit dropped to 50%.

这和以往周期里的情况基本一致。

That is roughly in line with kind of what we've seen in the past cycle.

所以我们再回看2022年。

So we kinda go back to 2022.

那时供应量中盈利的部分一度跌到了45%。

We came all the way down to 45% of the supply and profit.

再往前看2018年，这个比例曾降到40%。

And then back in 2018, we came all the way down to 40%.

而2015年，甚至一度跌到了36%。

And then in in 2015, we went all the way to 36.

所以，这个底部的位置最近一直有个缓慢而稳定的上升趋势。

So there's been kinda like this, like, sort of steady little uptick in kind of where this bottom's at.

我觉得你可以说，嘿。

And I think you could say, hey.

这个走势看起来挺清晰的——网络里超过一半的比特币都处于亏损状态，这在过去通常标志着周期低点。

That looks pretty clean to me that, you know, the network went into most almost almost more than half of the network went into losses, and that's historically kinda marked a cycle low.

我想提醒一点，过去的周期里，价格很少会快速暴跌，然后像V字形那样立刻反弹。

One thing I would point out here is just in past cycles, you tend to have, like you tend to not just come down very quickly in, like, a v shaped pattern and bounce off it.

正因如此，我对这种走势还是有点犹豫。

That's the one thing that that it still gives me me pause on something like this.

但我觉得，从一个宏观指标来看，它确实能让人安心，说明大部分的痛苦已经释放得差不多了。

But I think, again, you know, kind of a big, you know, high level metric that you could point to to give you some comfort that, like, a lot of pain has has played out here.

是的。

Yeah.

而今天这份报告里，你戴着牛市眼镜，但你也没说痛苦已经结束了。

And I guess in today's report with the bull goggles, you're not saying that the pain is over.

我的意思是，看多的人会觉得，我们可能已经见到底部了。

I mean, the bull goggles would just say that it's possible that we've already seen the lows.

对吧？

Right?

也许前面还有更多痛苦，但也许价格会落到七十几万，或者六十几万左右。

So maybe there's more pain ahead, but maybe we get to kind of the low seventies or the high sixties or something like that.

是的。

Yeah.

我们不会跌破六十万。

We don't drop below 60 k.

那RSI呢？

How about the RSI?

它有没有显示我们已经触碰到过去周期的低点，说不定二月就是底部了？

Is that showing that we've we've hit some lows that we hit in in previous cycles, and maybe that the bottom was in in February?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这里的观点也差不多。

I think similar similar view here.

这是十二个月的RSI，属于更长期的视角。

So this is the twelve month RSI, so it's a longer term view of this.

它用过去十二个月的月度RSI来计算，是个动量指标，能帮你判断市场是超买还是超卖。

It's taking the monthly RSIs with a twelve month look back, and that that this is a momentum indicator that's giving you an idea of kind of how overbought or or oversold the market conditions are.

我们当时一路跌到了那个红色区域，十二个月RSI到了41。

We went all the way down into that red territory there, which was 41 on the twelve month RSI.

那是二月五日市场崩盘的时候。

That was back during the February 5 capitulation.

从历史来看，这个数值正好落在过去几次低点的典型区间内。

So, you know, you can see historically, we've kind of that's that's right in the range of kinda where we've bottomed in past cycles.

我觉得这个指标特别要注意的一点是，它的 timing。

I think the one thing to pay attention to on this one is, again, just the timing of it.

通常来说，这种指标大概需要十二个月左右才能走完一个周期。

So this typically takes, you know, roughly twelve months or so to to to play out.

在最近的几次熊市里，RSI先是跌到一个低点，然后到了年底又创了新低。

And in the last couple bear markets, we we kinda went to a low on the RSI and then established a lower low, you know, later in the year.

所以这种情况是有可能发生的。

So it's it's possible.

虽然之前出现过那种恐慌性抛售，但后面可能还会再来一次，RSI可能会跌回41，甚至更低。

Even though we had that capitulation move, it's possible we have another one potentially later, and we get back down to 41 or or potentially even lower than that.

所以

So

两百周均线也很有意思。

The two hundred week is also interesting.

如果你眯起眼睛看的话，对。

If you if you squint, I guess Yeah.

那你或许可以说，二月份我们离两百周均线——也就是所谓的周期大底——已经很近了。

Then you could maybe say that we got close enough in February to the two hundred week moving average, just sort of call it, you know, the the big dip of the cycle.

我记得在之前的周期里，图表上能清楚看到，价格至少有一段时间跌破了两百周均线。

I know in previous cycles we could see right on the chart, looks like we dipped below the two hundred week moving average for at least some duration.

也许二月的时候我们就已经够接近了。

Maybe we were close enough in February.

也许我们根本不需要跌破这条线？

Maybe we never have to dip below this line?

有可能。

Possible.

确实有可能。

It's possible.

2018年的时候我们曾经碰过一次。

We touched it back in 2018.

从图上可以看到，尤其是在2022年底，我们确实长时间跌破了这条线。

As we can see in the chart there, we we spent quite a bit of time actually below it back in 2022, in particular, late twenty twenty two.

但2018年只是刚好碰到而已。

But in 2018, we just touched it.

并没有长时间跌破吧？

We didn't actually dip below for very long?

没错。

Correct.

一点都没有？

At all?

没错。

Correct.

好的。

Okay.

所以呢，之前确实有过接近或者只是触碰到这个水平的情况。

So, you know, so there is, you know, some some precedent for kind of getting close or just touching it.

我觉得2018年那个例子有个例外，虽然你只是碰了一下，但那时候已经跌了差不多85%了。

I think the one caveat, you know, for 2018 is, you know, even though you you just touched it, you were, you know, you were down, you know, 85% or so, you know, at that stage.

这次我们没跌到85%，差不多只跌了50%左右就接近那个位置了。

We're not gonna be down 85 per you know, we're down closer to 50% when we we got close this cycle.

所以，如果你非要戴上看涨或看跌的眼镜，硬要说的话——

So, you know, I think if you wanna put the bear goggle the bull goggles on and say, alright.

差不多就到这了。

That's that's close enough.

再说一遍，你其实已经接近那些长期周期的指标了，这时候可以说，行了。

Again, you know, you're kinda getting close to, like, these, like, long term cycle, you know, metrics where you can say, okay.

这说法挺公允的。

That's that's pretty fair.

也许现在是个适合配置资产的时机。

Maybe maybe it's a good time to allocate.

我想今天也想强调一点，我们现在正处于熊市。

And, like, I think, like, one message I'd like to, you know, get across today too is, like, we're in a bear market.

对吧？

Right?

我们总在聊怎么排队入场，怎么调整配置，但如果你打算持有个十年，那现在……

Like, you're like, we we talk about, you know, sort of getting queued and trying to, you know, really kind of, like, back into our allocations here on the on this channel, but if you're playing this for ten years, like, you know, you could probably It's

正是买入的好时机。

a good time to buy.

是的

Yeah.

现在确实是好时机

It's a good time

买入的好时机。

to buy.

从大概十一月开始，每一周都像是买入的好时机，我

Every week since probably, what, you know, November, It's been a good time to I

我同意。

agree.

我也同意。

I agree.

所以大家要记住这一点。

So so people should keep that in mind.

别让我这悲观的看法影响你太多。

Don't let me don't let me sort of bear you know, get too bearish on you.

因为我们正在买入。

So because we're buying.

我们正在市场上积极购入。

We're in the market buying.

我们力求精挑细选，这点我们后面也可以细聊。

We're trying to be selective, and we can get into that as well later.

我明白。

I get it.

你可以看看这个情况，也能合理地认为，当时的价位已经足够接近了，因为我们预期市场回调不会太深，毕竟一些市场结构并没有改变。

I mean, and you can look at this and you can make the case that this was close enough because we expect a more shallow market because some of the market structure hasn't changed.

我们正在大规模执行策略性买入。

We have strategy buying in size.

同时，ETF和机构资金也在持续流入。

We also have the ETFs and the institutional inflow.

不过，根据你最近的报告，还有今天看到的这些信息，我觉得你仍然认为，必须有更多币种完成交易，才能真正确认我们已经彻底扭转了熊市，彻底确认了底部。

However, there's this, which is I think it seems like from today's reports and the other reports that I've been reading from you lately, you still think more coins need to change hands in order for us to fully confirm that we have reversed the bear market, fully confirm those lows.

但这件事还没发生。

And that hasn't happened yet.

这是市场结构更新的图表，还有我们每周追踪的那些群体的成本分析。

Here's a chart on the market structure update, the cost basis analysis in those cohorts that we look at from week to week.

还没达到的是什么？

What hasn't hit yet?

你觉得还需要看到什么迹象，才能确定币的交易量已经足够了？

What do you still need to hit in order for you to feel like you've seen the coins changing hands enough?

对。

Yeah.

就像我们之前说的，这里确实经历了很大的压力。

Like we've like we've been talking about, there's been significant pain here.

我们确实看到币在不同人之间流转，尤其是从最上面那批买家来看，他们抛售的行为基本已经完成了，都是在市场疲软时出手的。

We we are definitely observing coins rotating hands, and if we observe kind of the the top cohort buyer set, I think that has mostly mostly played out in terms of people selling their coins, you know, into into weakness.

我现在特别关注的是第二梯队的群体。

The the cohort that I'm still paying a lot of attention to is, like, the second cohort down.

所以这是从顶部开始的。

So this is the from the top.

这是92k到108k左右的群体，他们只卖出了顶部持有量的11%，这挺有意思的。

So this is the nine 92 to a 108 k or so cohort, and they have only sold 11% of the coins that they held at at the top, which is pretty pretty interesting.

我们经历了恐慌性抛售。

You know, we had the capitulation.

市场已经低迷一段时间了。

We've been down for a little while.

他们本来有机会在反弹时趁涨卖出，但实际并没有看到太多币流出去。

They've had a chance to sell into some of this strength, you know, coming back on the retracement, and we haven't really seen, you know, too many coins moving there.

我要说的是，这种情况跟2022年同期的群体很相似。

The one thing that I would say is that it was kind of similar, you know, if you look at the equivalent cohort back in 2022.

我们看的是比那些抄了顶部的人低一档的群体。

So we're looking at the cohort that's just a tier down from the people that bought, like, the the Pico top.

对。

Mhmm.

那时候大概是2021年，价格在四万七到五万六之间。

And that would have been, like, 47 k to 56 k back in in 2121 period.

2022年熊市同一阶段，也就是价格见顶后经过的天数相同时，那个群体只减仓了22%。

When we were at the same juncture of the bear market back in 2022 in terms of the number of days since the the the price had peaked, that cohort had only reduced its holdings by twenty twenty 22% at the same exact stage.

而今天，对应的那个群体只减仓了11%。

We're at 11% today for the equivalent cohort.

就是那个九万二到十万八千的群体。

That's a 92 to one zero eight k.

后来他们一路卖到了减仓39%。

And then they later sold off all the way to 39%.

没错。

Correct.

而且发生得很快。

And it happened fast.

所以这就是为什么我仍然认为，市场还得经历一次明显的恐慌或痛苦，币才会真正开始动起来。

And and this is the this is why I still hold this view that, like, there's there's probably another moment of significant pain or fear that that's gonna have to come into the market to really, you know, get coins moving again.

而且触发点必须得出现，你知道的，总得有个契机，接下来咱们聊聊宏观面，也许那就是真正的导火索。

And and the catalyst just has to be something you know, there just has to be and we're gonna get into the macro, and maybe that's that's the catalyst here.

但我的看法一直是，你可以这样来看这件事。

But that's kind of been my view is, like, you can you can you can look at this.

你可以观察市场动向。

You can observe it.

你也能看到币在动，但如果你经历过熊市，说实话，我也说不准。

You can see coins moving, but, like, it just if you've been around for bear markets, like, I don't know.

这更多是种直觉，但我总觉得，我们还没到那个点。

This is more of a feel instinct type thing to me, but I just think we haven't.

我觉得市场上还残留着一点乐观情绪，得把这些余温彻底清掉，市场才能真正触底，不过咱们走着瞧吧。

Like, there's there's there's still a little bit of I just think there's still a little bullish vibes that need to be sucked out of the market for you before we really get really hit the low, but, you know, we'll see.

总结一下，按你的说法，现在是入手的好时机，但还没到绝佳出手的阶段，因为你还没看到足够多的币易主。

The summary is, according to you, you you think it's a good time to buy, but it's not fat pitch zone given that you haven't seen enough coins change your hands.

对。

Yeah.

这么说太贴切了。

That's a great way to say it.

咱们来看看宏观情况，这周有些有意思的变动。

Let's take a look at macro because there's been some interesting developments on the week.

首先是通胀，CPI数据挺高的。

The first is inflation, pretty high CPI print.

上周我们稍微聊过这一点。

We were talking about that a little bit last week.

现在看来，这已经得到了确认。

It feels like that's confirmed.

我们还得看看财政部的最新数据。

We've got some treasury numbers as well to take a look at.

我之前还真没看到这张图，是今天报告里的。

I'd actually not seen this chart that we're showing right now that was in today's report.

这是美国的通胀数据。

This is US inflation.

从2014年到现在，一直到未来可能的走势，都显示在这里。

You have today from 2014 all the way to up to now and then maybe, you know, projected in the future.

上面还叠加了1966年到1982年间的通胀数据。

That's overlaid with inflation from 1966 to 1982.

那是上世纪七十年代到八十年代初那段臭名昭著的高通胀时期。

So that was the infamous period of massively high inflation during the nineteen seventies and into the early eighties.

如果把这两条曲线放在一起看，一旦现在的通胀走势重现当年的情景，未来两三年我们可能会迎来新一轮的通胀高峰？

And if you overlay these two charts, right, it tells a story that if it plays out, if today's inflation plays out like the nineteen seventies, we could be headed for a double top in the next couple of years?

这种情况是有可能的。

It's it's possible.

真的很奇怪，现在的通胀路径几乎和七十年代到八十年代初一模一样。

It is kind of eerie how, you know, the inflation track is really kind of following what we saw back in the in the seventies and early eighties.

这张图来自The Informationist。

This is a chart from from the informationist.

上周公布的CPI数据是3.8%，这个数字确实值得注意。

And, yeah, I think, you know, we got the 3.8% CPI print last week.

PPI达到了6%。

We got 6% on the PPI.

我们之前聊过，PPI是生产者价格指数，反映的是生产者的投入成本。

We've talked about how that's the, you know, that's the producer price index, and that's the inputs for producers.

这个指标通常能提前预示CPI的走势。

That tends to be a leading indicator for where CPI is going.

最近我们确实看到债券市场有点失控的迹象。

And, you know, we were really starting to see the bond market get a little bit unruly here.

我想重点说说这个，因为两年期国债收益率正在大幅攀升，已经明显超过了联邦基金利率。

I think that's kinda what I wanna go through here because the the the the two year yield is is rising, and it's rising, like, pretty significantly past the the Fed funds rate.

这挺有意思，因为很多顶尖投资者，包括一些传奇人物，都说美联储其实是跟着两年期收益率走的。

This is interesting because there's a lot of there are a lot of smart people out there, you know, legendary investors that'll tell you the Fed follows the two year yields.

但也有人会说，等等，情况没那么简单。

There are other people that will say, oh, wait a minute.

这其实是一种相互影响的关系，两者会彼此推动、相互反应。

You know, it's kind of reflexive, and they they sort of, like, move off each other.

但这里其实有很明确的证据。

But there you know, there's pretty clear evidence.

我觉得如果你回过头去看，当两年期利率开始偏离美联储的目标区间时，美联储总会想办法追上去。

I think if you go back and look that the when the two year starts to move away from the Fed's target range, the Fed finds a way to to catch up to it.

我觉得这本质上是市场在逼着美联储行动。

It's sort of the market forcing the Fed's hand is kinda how I think about this.

目前两年期利率大约在4.14%左右。

And, you know, we're at 4.14 or so on the on the two year.

美联储的基准利率区间是3.5%到3.75%。

The Fed fund funds range is between three point five and three point seven five.

这还挺有意思的。

So that's kind of interesting.

看起来市场似乎想逼着美联储做出改变，暗示它已经落后于形势了。

It looks like the the market wants to force something here, and it's saying the Fed is behind the curve.

所以我们想弄清楚，上一次通胀高企、美联储大幅加息的时候——也就是2021到2022年——当时利率上调的节奏是怎样的？

And so what we did is I wanted to kind of understand, like, what was the sort of, like, cadence of this back in 2021, 2022 when the last time we had inflation, the last time the Fed had to hike rates, like, what what kind of what was the cadence of how we got there?

有趣的是，大家应该都还记得2020到2021年那波通胀。

And what's what's interesting is, like, we we had everyone kinda probably remembers kind of the inflation that we saw come in in '20 in 2021.

那时候，我们差不多有四十年没见过通胀了，你知道的。

What was interesting is, like, we hadn't seen inflation in, like, roughly forty years or so, you know, at that point.

所以当时，市场心理根本没把这事儿当真。

So it was kinda hard to get this baked into market psychology, I think, at the time.

我当时在看市场对通胀的预期是多少。

And I was looking at some of, like, what the market was anticipating for for inflation.

大概也就3%左右。

It was, like, 3% or so.

结果实际涨到了8.5%。

It ended up coming in at 8.5%.

但情况是，两年期利率很快就飙升了。

But the the sequence here was that the two the two year started to take off pretty pretty quickly.

美联储花了四到五个月才反应过来，那段时间通胀数据接连超预期。

It took four to five months for the Fed to, like, catch on to this, and we had multiple, you know, higher inflation prints over that period.

但正是这一点迫使美联储在上一轮加息，我现在在想，我们今天是不是也处在类似的状况中。

But this was kind of the thing that forced the Fed to to hike in the last cycle, and I'm sort of wondering if we potentially are kind of in that type of setup today.

我可能会对这个观点提出一点不同看法：如果通胀主要是由油价推动的，那应该也会带来经济需求的下降。

I think the the one thing I would maybe push back on that view is that if inflation is gonna go high and and it's largely gonna be because of oil prices, like, that should cause some sort of, you know, demand destruction in the economy as well.

这正是棘手的地方——如果美联储继续加息，反而可能引发市场对经济衰退的恐慌，到时候又不得不赶紧降息。

And this is the tricky part where the Fed, you know, if they hike, they might just, like, actually, like, really start cause a a major growth scare, and then they'd have to cut right behind that.

所以对美联储来说，现在确实是个很难处理的局面。

So I think it's a it's a tricky spot for them.

但对我来说，这很可能是近期引发比特币市场更大波动的导火索。

But, definitely, you know, this to me feels like it might be the catalyst just for some more turbulence, you know, kind of in the in the near term for for big for Bitcoin.

这种情况下，风险资产的前景并不乐观，因为这说明美联储在应对通胀方面可能已经落后了，不得不提高联邦基金利率。

So this is not a great setup when it comes to risk on assets because this could indicate that the Fed is a little behind the curve with respect to inflation, and they need to move Fed fund rates up.

你刚才说，今年12月美联储加息的概率现在是……

I think you said now the probability of actually a Fed raising rates by was this December of this year?

对，大概有四成。

Is that 40 Yeah.

两次，没错。

Two Yep.

还在上升吗？

And rising?

上世纪七十年代的双顶形态，有些人可能没看过这个图，那时候还没出生，记不得了——其实我们是在八十年代初通胀率才突破百分之十的。

And the double top scenario of the nineteen seventies, and people maybe who aren't seeing this graph weren't alive then, don't recall, it was the early nineteen eighties that we actually peaked above 10% annualized inflation.

对吧？

Right?

那会儿也正好是和伊朗类似的冲突时期。

Which which was during a similar conflict with with Iran.

天哪。

So Oh my god.

这简直重演了。

It's a repeat.

那是第二波，想想现在的情况还挺有意思——因为现在大家已经开始预期通胀了。

And that was a second wave, and, like, it's kind of interesting to think about that in terms of the like, we because that is very interesting to me where, like, people are now expecting inflation.

所以如果你看看密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查，市场现在预期的是什么？

So if you look at the University of Michigan kind of consumer sentiment analysis and what is the market, like, expecting?

他们预计未来一年左右的通胀率会达到4.5%。

So they were expecting 4.5% inflation over the next year or so.

再回看2021年，那时候我们并没有真正预期通胀会升高，因为根本没经历过。

Again, if you go back to '21, we didn't have this, like, real expectation of higher inflation because we hadn't seen it.

但现在我们亲身体验过了，如果油价持续高位，这种通胀开始蔓延到其他日常消费品，我觉得情况可能会变得很有趣，看看最终会走向哪里。

I think because now we've seen it, that is gonna be interesting to see, you know, if oil stays elevated, if this starts to bleed into, you know, other other goods for for consumers, I think it it it could could it could get interesting in terms of kinda where where this goes.

你是说，消费者心理现在出现了一种反馈循环——他们经历过疫情后的通胀，就开始预期它会再来，于是行为也会跟着改变？

So you're saying there's a reflexive feedback loop in consumer psychology now that they've experienced inflation, inflation of COVID, now they kind of expect it, so they might change their behavior.

对吧？

Right?

而且他们的资产配置也会跟着变，这反过来可能促成类似上世纪七十年代那种双顶局面。

And certainly their their allocation, and that can reflexively lead to that double top type of scenario.

至于我们会不会重演八十年代那么高的通胀，天啊，超过10%的可能性或许不大，峰值可能没那么高，但那时候真得靠沃尔克出手，狠命加息才压下去。

Now whether we get as high as the 1980s, oh my god, above It 10 could be a smaller top I guess, a smaller peak, but that really required a Paul Volcker to come in and completely I guess, like, go hard on raising rates.