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欢迎收听这份报告。
Welcome to the report.
今天咱们有一期特别内容。
We got a special episode today.
今天是2026年7月15日。
It is 07/15/2026.
今天我们来做一份关于TDR的年度绩效报告。
We are doing an annual performance report on the TDR.
所以今天换个方式聊。
So we're switching it up.
我们不谈当前价格，也不讨论现在处于周期的哪个阶段。
We're not talking about current price, where we are on the cycle.
相反，我们把视角拉远一点。
Instead, we are zooming out.
这次特别的地方在于，这是迈克第一次打开账本给大家看。
So for the first time, the reason this is special, Mike is opening the books.
这是一份投资者日记，就像我们每次播客结尾都会说的那样，记录了自TDR Pro一年前上线以来的每一次盈利、每一次亏损，以及所有学到的经验。
This is an investor journal, as we always end these podcasts by telling you that this is every win, every loss, every learning since the TDR Pro launched about a year ago.
时间差不多快一年了。
It's been about a year.
你可以把它看作一份年度业绩报告——就像工作中你可能收到的绩效评估，只不过我们是从投资者的角度来审视它。
Think Think of it as an annual performance report, you know, you might get these at work, your performance review, but we're looking at this from an investor perspective.
我觉得这很重要，因为它在真实世界中检验了Mike的理论：关于市场周期、链上基本面，以及如何利用这些数据来预测加密货币的未来走向、挑选投资标的，到底管不管用。
And I think it's important because it kind of tests in the real world how Mike's thesis about the cycle, about on chain fundamentals, about using these data sets to predict the course of crypto in the future and to buy particular assets, how does that actually perform in the real world?
我特别喜欢这一点，因为我觉得这个播客——或者说我的整个历程——核心就是做一个独立投资者，一个聪明的独立投资者。
And why I love it is because I think this podcast maybe, you know, my journey is about being a solo investor, a smart solo investor.
如果你自己管理资金，是个独立投资者，哪怕你在基金工作、自己操盘，那这期节目就是为你准备的，你可以看到Mike的思考过程和投资者日记是怎么运作的。
So if you're managing your own money, if you are a solo investor, maybe if you work at a fund, you manage capital yourself, you can see in the mind of Mike and in Investor Journal, this is your episode.
最后，我会花几分钟时间，以一个TDR Pro用户的身分，向你们展示我的操作界面，以及我是如何用这些数据来分配和管理个人投资组合的一部分。
And at the end, what I'm gonna do is spend a few minutes, I'm a TDR Pro user, I want to spend a few minutes showing you my setup and how I use these datasets to manage and allocate with part of my individual portfolio.
里面会用到一点AI工具，加上一些TDR的数据，我相信你们会很喜欢我用的这些工具。
There's a little bit of AI, a little bit of TDR data, I think you'll really enjoy the tools that I'm using.
说实话，我也想听听社区里其他人是怎么用的，尤其是TDR社区里的资深用户。
And honestly, I wanna hear how other people in the community are also using it, other super users in the TDR community.
所以，Mike，咱们先从这个说起。
So, Mike, let's start with this.
这份报告就是从这里开始展开的。
This is where the report actually opens out.
我知道你偶尔会被邀请去管理一个基金。
I know you've been asked to run a fund from time to time.
但你选择用自己的资金，来实践每周带给我们的那些策略。
Instead, you are running your own capital against the strategies that you bring to us every week.
你为什么选择这种方式呢？
Why are you doing it this way?
是的。
Yeah.
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
我们其实被多次找上门来过。
You know, we've been approached multiple times.
我曾经和好几个团队合作过，帮他们搭建基金，但都没找到合适的人一起干，而我自己管理资金，确实挺享受的，原因可能大家都能理解。
I've actually worked with multiple teams and and on standing up a fund that haven't found the right people to do it with, and I've I really enjoy managing my own my own capital for for reasons that might be somewhat, you know, obvious to people.
我只是单纯喜欢这种自由感。
I just kinda enjoy the freedom of it.
如果你能保持思维诚实，敢于质疑自己的观点，我觉得这事是能做成的，对我而言，这种方式就特别顺手。
I think if you're able to do it in a way where you're intellectually honest and you're able to poke holes in your own thesis and things like this, I think I think it's doable, and it's worked it just kinda works well for me.
我觉得投资本质上是非常个人化的事，我一直在努力找到最适合自己的方式。
I think investing is extremely, like, personal thing, and I've really tried to just find what works best for myself.
一个人整天对着屏幕做投资，确实会有点孤单。
And investing is can be a little bit of a lonely experience when you're when you're doing it on your own in front of screens all day.
好在现在有互联网，能接触社交媒体和其他投资者。
What's nice is we have the Internet, and we can access social media and other investors.
我特别享受的是，公开分享我正在做的每一件事，围绕这个建立服务，保持透明，让我的利益和DEFI REPORT的用户完全一致。
And what I've really what I really enjoy is kind of sharing exactly what I'm doing and building a service around that and just being transparent and trying to align my incentives with the customers of the DEFI REPORT.
所以这个产品成本很低，你就能全面了解我们做的所有事情，全程透明，没有任何利益冲突。
So it kinda works nicely where it's this kinda low cost product where you basically get access to everything we're doing, transparency, no conflicts of interest.
作为这个领域的投资者和分析员，和很多我们的用户一样，我也会看其他分析师和机构的内容。
You know, I'm also a as an investor analyst in this space, like many of our customers, I'm also consuming content from other analysts and other places.
我们推出 TDR Pro，就是想解决我在数据和研究领域经常遇到的那些问题。
And part of, like, what we're doing with TDR Pro is to try to solve some of, like, the problems that I see just kinda within the data and research space.
这个产品我们大概一年前上线了。
So it's it's something that, you know, we launched this about a year ago.
运行得非常好。
It it works really nicely.
我真的很喜欢这个产品。
I'm really enjoying it.
每周和你一起做这个播客，我也特别享受。
I'm enjoying doing this podcast with you every week.
趁着年底这个机会，我们正好可以做个复盘，进行全面的绩效评估。
And this is an opportunity about a year end to kind of give ourselves an audit, do a full performance review.
我们即将更新一些报告和透明度方面的内容，诸如此类的事项。
We're gonna be updating some of our reporting and transparency, things like that.
这确实是个好机会，回头看看走过的路。
And, yeah, good opportunity to just kind of, like, look back.
现在熊市已经持续了九个月，我们不妨盘点一下现状，看看表现如何，做个全面的复盘。
We're nine months into a bear market and just, you know, where are we at, how are we doing, and just do a full full review.
这周特别期待深入聊聊这些内容。
So excited to to get into it this week.
这周来一次彻底的审计和全面复盘。
Full audit, full review this week.
我们这就直接开始。
We're gonna get right into it.
在开始之前，我们要感谢让本期节目成为可能的赞助商。
Before we do, we wanna thank the sponsor that made this episode possible.
那就是 GALAXY。
That is GALAXY.
这条信息是说给机构听众的。
This one's for institutions listening.
如果你在关注金融的未来，或者在看下一场工业革命，我说的就是加密货币。
If you're looking at the future of finance or if you're looking at the next industrial revolution, I'm talking about crypto.
我说的是人工智能。
I'm talking about AI.
GALAXY 就是这家公司的名字。
GALAXY is the name.
在加密货币方面，他们做机构交易、资产托管和代币化服务。
So on the crypto side, they do institutional trading, custody, tokenization.
在人工智能方面，他们运营着大规模的数据中心。
On the AI side, massive data centers.
他们在 Helios 项目中获得了 16 亿瓦的获批电力。
1.6 gigawatts of approved power in their Helios site.
你们应该都听说过他们。
You guys know them.
他们股票代码是GLXY，如果你想了解GALAXY如何帮助机构在加密和人工智能领域进行投资、建设和转型，不妨去了解一下。
They trade under the ticker GLXY, and if you wanna see how GALAXY helps institutions invest, build, and transform in crypto and AI, go check them out.
节目笔记里有链接。
There's a link in the show notes.
咱们聊聊你的目标吧。
Let's talk about your goals.
今天你打开了年度业绩报告，提到过一些目标，作为个人投资者管理自己的资金。
That's where you open the annual performance report today, and you alluded to some of them as a solo investor, managing his own capital.
这些目标跟基金总经理的诉求很接近，但也有不同之处。
They're pretty close to the goals of maybe a general manager of a fund, but also different.
比如第三个目标：晚上能睡个好觉。
Like, have this goal, number three, sleep well at night.
所以你才会保持较高的现金比例，就是为了能安心睡觉。
That's why you maintain higher cash levels so you can actually sleep well at night.
这点我特别有共鸣。
Definitely resonates with me.
从最宏观的角度来看，你的策略和投资组合的目标是什么？
What are the goals of your strategy and your portfolio at the highest level?
对。
Yeah.
我刚接触加密货币、开始深入研究数据的时候，之所以走到今天，是因为我发现链上公开数据其实人人都能获取，但只要用心，就能找到优势。
I think when I got into crypto and when I really started getting into data, the reason I'm here is because I started to realize that, you know, there was an edge that you could have with with on chain public datasets that just were accessible to anybody.
如果你有毅力、有技能，又愿意拼命努力，我觉得加密市场比传统市场更像一个凭本事说话的地方。
And if you have the willpower and you have the skills and you wanna work really hard, I view, like, the crypto markets as more of a, like, meritocracy when compared to, like, traditional markets.
所以这正是我投身于此的原因。
And so that's really why I'm why I'm here.
而这一切的根本目标，就是让财富持续增长，在不同市场周期中赚到钱。
And, really, the goal of all this is to compound, you know, your net worth compound and make money over or across cycles.
我发现，穿越周期进行投资，才是最有效的方式。
I have found that investing through cycles is kind of the best way to do this.
这对我来说最管用。
It it's what works best for me.
所以我们的首要目标很明确，就是赚钱。
And so that's really the goal is is number one is we're here to make money, obviously.
比特币是我们投资组合的基石。
Bitcoin is, like, the anchor of our portfolio.
比特币是加密市场中最具优势的资产。
Bitcoin is the alpha asset of the crypto markets.
当我们把资金配置到比特币以外的项目时，目标就是跑赢比特币。
When we deploy capital outside of Bitcoin, like, the goal is to outperform Bitcoin.
这是第二点。
So that's number two.
我们需要合理配置比特币的仓位，把握好周期，选对入场时机，真正把握住周期波动并管理好风险。
It's like, we we need to get our allocation into Bitcoin proper, get the cycles you know, get our entries right and and really trade the cycle and and manage risk through that.
当我们把资金投入比特币之外的项目时，必须非常严谨，目标就是要跑赢比特币。
And then when we deploy capital outside of Bitcoin, there should be a lot of rigor that goes into that, and we should be trying to outperform.
因为要做到这一点真的很难。
Because it's really hard to do that.
这个领域里的大多数对冲基金都很难跑赢比特币。
Most hedge funds in this space struggle to outperform Bitcoin.
我们运气不错，能在多个周期里做到这一点，但确实不容易。
You know, we've been fortunate to to do that across cycles, but it's hard.
我觉得这件事只会越来越难。
And I think it's continuing to get harder.
我之前提到过，投资这件事其实非常个人化。
You know, I talked about per investing just being, like, a very personal thing.
对我来说，我做的一切都是为了让我生活得更符合自己的价值观，追求我想要的那种自由。
You know, for me, everything I'm doing is, like, to to align things to my personal preferences and and how I wanna live my life and the type of freedom I'm trying to establish in my life.
我不觉得应该整天焦虑，过度押注市场，还整天面对波动。
And I don't think being stressed all the time and being maybe over allocated to markets and dealing with volatility.
作为投资者，加密货币这个行业本身就充满挑战。
Crypto is a difficult industry as an investor.
在加密市场投资时，你会遇到很多传统市场里根本不会碰到的问题。
There are lots of things that come into play as an investor in crypto markets that you maybe aren't dealing with in in traditional markets.
所以对我来说，我发现自己保留比传统基金更多的现金在 sidelines，能让我睡得更安稳。
And so for me, I have just found that keeping maybe more cash on the sideline than a traditional fund would helps me sleep at night.
我发现这样也有助于我更好地管理风险，因为我更平静了。
I found that it also helps me manage risk better because I'm able to I'm calmer.
我的心态更清晰了。
My psychology is more clear.
每当市场下跌，我反而更兴奋，因为我手头有现金可以出手。
I feel like when things go down, I'm getting more excited because I I have some cash to deploy.
心理学在投资中真的很重要，保持正确的心态尤为关键。
And, you know, psychology is just a big part of investing and just being in the right mindset.
我们常提到要拥有富足心态、成长型思维这类东西。
We talk about, you know, having an abundance mindset, a growth mindset, these types of things.
这些对我而言真的非常关键。
These things, like, really matter to me.
所以这听起来有点奇怪，我把‘睡个好觉’当成一个目标，但……
So this is just kind of the funny thing to put in there as a goal, like, sleep well at night, but
所以你在TDR投资组合里根本找不到什么杠杆空间。
that's why gonna find you're gonna find no margin in the TDR portfolio.
明白吗？
Okay?
因为迈克在乎睡个好觉，而杠杆会让他睡不着。
Because Mike likes his sleep, and margin is
我们不会做空市场。
a We sub don't short the market.
有些事情我们待会儿会聊，比如在加密市场里，哪些做法最容易亏钱。
Like, there are things, you know, we'll get into we have a section that we wanna talk about just like what are the best ways to lose money in the crypto markets.
那些都是典型的亏钱方式。
Like, those are some ways to to to lose money.
我们尽量避开这些陷阱。
We try to avoid these things.
这大概就是我个人的投资目标了。
So that's kind of, like, my personal goals.
我们把TDR Pro当作一项服务在运营。
We run TDR Pro as a service.
所以对我来说，TDR Pro作为服务能否成功，关键在于我们作为投资者是否成功，是否真正为市场提供价值，是否与客户的目标保持一致，是否保持透明，同时希望我们的研究能引起大家共鸣，真正为客户创造价值，带来回报。
And so for me, the only way that TDR Pro as a service can be successful is if we are successful as investors, if we're providing service to the market, if we're aligning our incentives with our customers, providing that transparency, and and hopefully the research resonates with people and, you know, we're able to add value and and and provide some ROI for our customers.
这其实和我所有其他的工作都是一脉相承的。
And that's, you know, that that just goes alongside everything everything that I'm doing.
这太好了，Mike。
That's great, Mike.
这正是我喜欢这个服务的原因，和你一起做这些事我特别开心，我自己也是TDR Pro的忠实用户。
That this is why I love the service, and I really enjoy doing these things with you and and enjoy being a user of the TDR Pro product too.
有几件事我想说一下。
So a a few things.
我们马上进入数据部分。
We're gonna get into the numbers.
在开始之前，有几点我先提一下。
A few things I should maybe note before we begin.
这个时间跨度大概是一年。
The the the time scale for this is about a year.
你是在去年七月启动TDR Pro的吧。
So you kicked off the TDR Pro in July of last year.
我记得大概是七月中旬。
I think it was sometime mid July.
现在又到了七月中旬。
It's now about mid July again.
所以我们讨论的是大约一年的表现。
So this is about a year of performance that we're talking about.
首先是第一点。
So it's number one.
第二点，听众们要注意，我们会用现金和美元来衡量表现，同时也会把表现和比特币做对比，就像你们自己衡量投资回报时那样。
The second thing that listeners need to keep in mind is we're gonna talk about performance in cash terms and dollar terms, of course, but then we're also going to index that to Bitcoin as you index your own performance versus Bitcoin.
我们会同时看它相对于现金和比特币的表现，而目标始终是跑赢比特币。
So we're gonna see it indexed to, obviously, to cash and then indexed to to Bitcoin, and the goal, as always, is to outperform Bitcoin.
你的投资组合分为两个部分。
So you have two segments of the portfolio.
第一部分是已实现的盈亏。
The first is realized gains and losses.
第二部分是未实现的盈亏。
The second is unrealized gains and losses.
已实现的部分，指的是你已经卖出并套现的仓位。
So the realized section is these are positions that you have exited for cash.
明白吗？
Okay?
你可以这么理解，听众朋友，这关乎你该卖什么、什么时候卖。
So think of this as if you're framing this out, listener, think of this as knowing what to sell and when to sell.
对吧？
Right?
这就是退出策略的场景。
The exit type scenario.
我得承认，迈克，这方面我一直不是特别擅长。
It's something that traditionally I haven't been great at, Mike, I gotta confess.
对我来说，买比卖容易多了。
It's easier for me to buy than it is to sell.
接下来我们要聊的是未实现收益和亏损的表现。
And the second piece we're gonna get into is performance around unrealized gains and losses.
这其实正好相反，讲的是该买什么、什么时候买。
This is kind of like the inverse, which is knowing what to buy and when to buy.
那我们先从已实现的收益和亏损说起。
So let's start with realized gains and losses.
过去十二个月，我们看的是哪些数据？
What are the numbers that we're looking at for the last twelve months?
是的。
Yeah.
在讲数据之前，我先简单说明一下我们的报告方式。
And and maybe just before I get to the numbers, just a quick note on how we're we're doing this reporting.
因为我们不管理外部资金，所以这里的报告并不把现金状况考虑在内。
Because we do not manage outside capital, like, we're not factoring in our cash position into our reporting here.
我们只看投入资本的表现，以及它和比特币相比如何。
So we're only reporting based on what how we did on capital deployed and then how did that do against Bitcoin?
这么做的原因还是因为这是一段个人投资的经历。
And the reason for that is, again, this is a personal investment journey.
有时候我们希望多留点现金。
Sometimes we wanna have more cash.
有时候我们希望保留更多灵活性。
Sometimes we wanna have more optionality.
比如我想去旅行、买房，或者做其他事情，所以很难把现金因素纳入分析。
Maybe I wanna go on a trip or buy a house or different things like that, and so it's hard to kinda bring the cash into that into the analysis.
所以归根结底，我们只关心投入的资本表现如何。
And so it's really just, you know, how how do we do on capital deployed?
这样反而更清晰，我觉得。
So That's actually It makes it cleaner, think.
这样更清晰。
That makes it cleaner.
对。
Yeah.
确实更清楚了。
It's cleaner.
实现的盈亏其实都集中在很短的一段时间内。
And the the realized gain losses, this is really from a pretty tight period.
主要是去年七月到十月这段时间。
So this is from the July through, like, October period last year.
TDR的会员或者读者应该还记得，那之前我就开始逐步降低风险了。
TDR Pro Pro members or people TDR readers will will probably remember that I was starting to kinda go risk off, you know, before this period.
后来我察觉到市场即将进入下行期，就重新进场了。
And I kinda pivoted back into the market when I saw that death season was coming.
最后我们还是加大了市场投入。
We ended up putting more risk into the market.
所以当我回头看看那段时期，我觉得要改变主意、重新进场或退出市场，真的挺难的。
So I I kind of when I look back at that period, I think, you know, it's hard to change your mind and kinda get back into markets or get out of markets.
我觉得我们当时挺敏锐地察觉到市场要降温了，及时把资金重新投入市场。
I think we did a pretty good job of realizing doubt season was coming, deploying capital back into the market.
这段时期正是我们讨论的实现收益与亏损的阶段，回报率大约是53%。
And this is the period that we're covering in this realized gain losses, and the the returns were were about 53%.
也就是说，我们投入的资本，最终实现了53%的收益。
So of of capital that we put in, we were able to produce gains of 53%.
这主要是晚期周期的表现，那些早早就进场的TDR会员应该还记得。
This was mostly, again, kinda late cycle performance pro members that were early.
可能有人记得，我们当时买了Pump Fun、Athena这类标的。
Might remember we were buying things like pump fun, Athena.
我们还买了GALAXY。
We were buying GALAXY.
以及BITMI和BMNR。
We were buying BITMI and BMNR.
那时候我们买ETH，主要是因为DAZZN。
We were buying ETH because of DAZZN at this time.
那些就是当时带来回报的一些成功投资。
So those were kind of some of the wins that that went into that at that time.
不过，如果你想知道更多关于那段时间的细节，我很乐意聊聊。
But, yeah, happy to get into any more details, like, over kind of that period if if if it makes sense.
好的。
Okay.
那我回到数据上来。
Well, I'll get back to the numbers.
这些是已经实现的收益。
So this is kind of booked wins.
所谓已实现收益，就是你卖出的那些项目，当然，这些信息对TDR Pro会员都是开放的。
So booked wins, basically, the, you know, things that you sold, and and this is all obviously available to TDR Pro members.
53%。
53%.
如果拿这个表现和比特币对比，基准线是这样的：如果你只是单纯持有比特币，而不是用TDR Pro策略操作这些机会，你的回报会是负45%。
The benchmark so if you compare just to Bitcoin, the index here, if you just held Bitcoin instead of doing what you did with the TDR Pro on on these gains, it would have been negative 45%.
所以，相比比特币，我们跑赢了大约100%。
So the alpha versus Bitcoin is about a 100%.
准确来说是98.7%。
It's 98.7%.
我稍后会讲讲这段时期的关键经验，但在那之前，为了让大家看清整个过程——从牛市末期那些风声、最后的反弹，到你如何应对，再到过去九个月我们看到的熊市走势——我们先来看看未实现的盈亏情况。
I wanna get back get to the key learnings during this period in a second, but before we do, just so we can see the whole chronology of kind of final the whispers and the final gasps of the bull market and how you're playing that and then calling what we've seen over the last nine months or so, which is the bear market, let's talk about now the other segment first, which is the unrealized gains and losses.
这其实还是关于知道该买什么、什么时候买。
And so this is kind of like, again, knowing what to buy and when to buy.
如果你看看目前投资组合里还没卖出的那些资产，具体数字是多少？
If you look at some of those raw numbers of what's in the portfolio right now that hasn't been exited for cash, what do the numbers look like?
那我们现在是把组合里所有持仓都算上吗？
So do we take everything that's in the portfolio right now?
包括所有投入的资本，这些资产今天总价值是多少？
This includes all of our positions, capital in, what is the value of that capital today?
我们目前上涨了13%，这里要明确一下，我们只统计了Pro会员能够接触到的交易。
We're up 13% over the this is just and and just to be really clear on this reporting, we're only reporting on trades that Pro members could have access to.
对吧？
Right?
我这里不包含那些我早在2020年就持有的比特币，那些是在上一轮周期卖出的，因为Pro会员当时根本进不了那个仓位。
So I am not reporting on and and this was really applies more to the realized gain losses, but I'm not reporting on Bitcoin that I held from back in 2020 that we sold, you know, last cycle because Pro members couldn't you know, that that was already in the portfolio.
Pro会员根本没机会参与那些持仓。
Pro members didn't have access to that.
我们只统计过去一年里，Pro会员有机会买入并跟我们一起卖出的那些交易。
So we're only reporting on things, you know, over the last year that Pro members could have bought and exited when when we did.
这点我得说清楚。
So I just wanna make that clear.
不过当我们今天看整个投资组合的构成时，所有持仓加起来整体涨了13%。
But and when we took a look at the composition of the portfolio today, we're up 13% on all of our holdings.
这指的是未实现的盈亏。
That's unrealized gain losses.
这个数字当然会随着价格波动而上下变化。
That number is obviously, you know, moving up and down as prices change.
在加密货币熊市里还能涨13%，真不简单。
And 13% in a crypto bear market.
在加密货币熊市里。
In a crypto bear market.
表现相当不错。
So pretty solid.
我觉得关键在于，我们做得最成功的一点，就是控制住了风险。
I think the takeaway here is, you know, the the most important thing that I think we've done that we've done well is manage risk.
对吧？
Right?
及时离场，转成现金持仓。
Just getting out of the market, getting into a cash position.
这才是最重要的，能让你在价格更低的时候，重新买回更多资产，尤其是你最喜欢的那些。
This is, like, the most important thing allows you to buy back more of the assets, more of your favorite assets, hopefully, at cheaper prices.
在这个熊市里，我们已经成功买入了比上一轮高点时更多的比特币，而且计划继续买入，希望能在更低的价格入手。
We've successfully been able to actually acquire more Bitcoin already in this bear market than we held, you know, at the top of of the last cycle and planning to to get even more, you know, hopefully at at cheaper prices.
但我觉得最关键的一点是，我们在比特币自推出TDR Pro以来下跌了45%的市场里，居然还能赚钱。
But I think that's the big takeaway is, like, we've been able to make money in a a market where Bitcoin is down 45% since, you know, we launched TDR Pro.
如果你只是单纯持有比特币，那现在已经亏了45%。
So if you just held Bitcoin, you're down 45%.
而TDR Pro却上涨了13%。
TDR Pro up up 13%.
这个表现太棒了，恭喜。
Congrats on that performance.
确实非常出色。
It's fantastic.
顺便问一下，过去一年标普500表现怎么样？
What what was the S and P, by the way, over the last year
或者表现得相当不错。
or done really well.
过去一年涨了大约20%。
It's up it's about 20 over the last year.
我觉得纳斯达克今年涨了将近29%，所以我对这个表现挺满意的。
I think Nasdaq's up about 29% over the last year, so I'm I'm okay with that.
那些指数涨得飞快，而我们在熊市里几乎没掉队。
Those things are ripping, and we we almost kept kept pace in a down year.
如果能在牛市里大幅跑赢这些传统指数，那我在熊市里稍微落后一点，我也能接受。
I'm kind of okay with with underperforming some of those benchmarks or some of those more traditional benchmarks in a down year if we wildly can outperform it in an up year.
顺便提一下非比特币的投资配置。
And maybe just a quick note on the non BTC capital deployments.
13%的收益是包含比特币在内的整个投资组合的表现。
So 13% is the entire portfolio that includes Bitcoin in there.
我们非比特币的投资部分涨了21.2%，这对我来说很重要。
We're up 21.2 on all of our non Bitcoin deployments, which is important to me.
我始终希望，只要把资金投到非比特币的项目里，就得跑赢比特币才行。
Like, I always wanna make sure if I'm putting capital into play, putting capital into risk, and it's not going to Bitcoin, like, it needs to outperform Bitcoin.
没错
That's
确实如此。
And it is.
这是整体表现。
That's the aggregate.
比比特币高出大约20%。
Outperforming Bitcoin by about 20%.
对。
Yep.
对。
Yep.
这是所有持仓的总体表现。
That's the aggregate of, you know, all of the positions.
有几项是亏损的，我们待会儿再细聊具体持仓，但这是所有持仓的总体情况。
We're down on a few in which we can get we'll we'll get into some of the individual positions, but that's the aggregate of of all the positions.
当然，未实现收益组合的好处在于你的成本价，我觉得你对自己在当前市场环境下锁定的某些持仓成本特别满意，这种机会只有在熊市才能抓住。
And the nice thing about, of course, an unrealized gain portfolio is kind of the cost basis you get it at, and I I I think you're pretty proud of the cost basis you've you've locked in for some of these positions with the current, you know, with the current, you know, market as it is, and that's that's stuff you can only do during the bear market.
这种时候才最适合锁定这些持仓。
That's when you want to be locking in these positions.
别人害怕的时候买入，别在别人贪婪的时候追高。
Accumulate when others are fearful and not when they are greedy.
咱们聊聊这段时期最重要的经验。
Let's talk about the key lessons from this period.
大概可以分成两个阶段。
And there were really maybe two eras.
第一个阶段，是牛市最后的余波。
You know, the first era was the last wisps of the bull run.
我记得你之前说过，大概今年春天四五月的时候，你开始逐步降低加密货币持仓的风险敞口，之前你可是非常看多的。
So you said, I think, coming into the summer, maybe this is April and May, you were starting to tilt towards a risk off position with respect to your crypto holdings, and you had been very bullish.
你知道的，TDR Pro的成员可能不了解，如果你没关注我超过一年的话——但你在整个上一轮牛市期间都一直看多，重仓了Solana，还有不少模因币，现在你正逐步退出这些仓位。
You know, TDR Pro like, TDR members maybe don't know this if they haven't been tracking you for longer than a year, but you had been bullish through the entire previous bull market, got in some pretty big positions with Solana, you know, some of the meme coins as well, and you're starting to exit those.
你当时觉得市场可能已经见顶了，但那个阶段又让你改变了想法，于是夏天里你重新转向了风险偏好，当然，到了十月又再次转向保守。
You thought maybe this the market was over, but that season kind of changed your mind, and you went back risk on for some period of time over the summer before, of course, in October going risk off.
聊聊第一阶段吧，就是牛市最后的余波。
Talk about that first segment, the last wisps of the bull market.
你得重新评估自己的判断。
You had to change your mind on something.
从偏向保守，又转回了偏向进取。
Had to go from tilting risk off to tilting back risk on.
这其中你学到了什么？
What was the learning there?
是的。
Yeah.
有人可能还记得，大概一年半前，也就是2025年1月，我觉得那是市场最投机的时期。
People might recall, you know, going back about a year and a half, going back to January 2025, I thought that was the most speculative period of the market.
那时候特朗普推出了那个迷因币。
That was, like, when Trump launched the meme coin.
那时候索拉纳涨到了2.8美元左右，我们正好在那个时候退出了。
That was when Solana hit up went up to $2.80 or so, and we were exiting Solana, you know, at that time.
我们是在低位买入的，平均成本大概在15美元左右。
We were buying at the at the lows, and our average cost is about $15.
不过这些并不在我们当前的实盘报告里，因为TDR Pro的会员当时还看不到这些交易。
Again, that's not part of our realized, you know, reporting here because those trades TDR Pro members didn't didn't have access to.
所以是的。
So yeah.
我们之前看到过一轮非常强烈的投机热潮，那时候比特币还没涨到那样的水平。
So, you know, we had seen, like, a very big speculative push, you know, kind of earlier in the last cycle, Bitcoin still hadn't reached those, you know, levels.
很多人都在预测比特币会冲到15万、20万甚至21.5万美元。
I think a lot of people were calling for 150, $202,150 k Bitcoin.
所以当时确实有理由继续留在市场里，但因为这些资产涨得太猛了，我们还是选择适当降低风险。
And so I think you there was there were reasons to stay in the market, but because those things had gone up so much, we were we were happy to take some risk off.
然后到了四月初，又碰上了关税问题。
And then we had sort of the tariff tariff thing early April.
市场大幅下跌。
Markets sold off.
那时候很多人都在预测经济衰退之类的。
A lot of people were calling for recession and things like that at that time.
我当时状态挺好的，因为早就开始转成现金了。
I was kind of at a great spot because I had already started to move to to to cash.
我们后来重新投入了一部分资金，不是全部，但又回到了市场，找了一些值得关注的机会，当时一直在研究DAX季节性，看看这些DAX会不会跑赢基础资产。
We ended up redeploying some of that that that capital, not all of it, but we got back in the market and identified some things that we wanted to be you know, we're really kinda studying what's DAX season, what are gonna what is sort of are these are these DAX gonna outperform the base assets?
这对山寨币意味着什么？
You know, what does this mean for altcoins?
这是山寨币的季节吗？
Is this altcoin season?
所以我们重新评估了形势，重返市场，结果证明这个决定很明智。
So we kinda reassess things, got back in the market, and that turned out to be a good move.
这可不容易做到。
That's not easy to do.
对吧？
Right?
当你已经在调整心态，开始琢磨怎么处理那些退出市场后手里的现金时，
When you're already kind of shifting your psychology, trying to you're already thinking about what you're gonna do with some of the cash that you that you that you exited with.
再重新进场并不容易。
It's not easy to come back in.
所以我挺满意这次转向风险偏好资产的决策，大概持续了三个月左右，然后就锁定一部分利润。
So I I think I'm I'm happy with sort of the pivot to go back into risk on for basically, like, three months or so, and then and then book some more profits.
到了九月、十月期间，我们就彻底转为避险模式了。
And then we kinda went fully risk off in September, October period.
没错。
So Yeah.
九月底到十月初，你就是在那时候发了提醒，十月份的事。
So end of September and beginning of October, that's when you sent an alert in October.
我记得是十月八号左右，或者九号，反正就在十号之前，你通知了TDR Pro的会员要转为避险策略。
I think it was either the, you know, the eighth maybe, eighth or the October 9 before the 10:10 date to TDR Pro members that you were going you were switching to risk off.
当时成交量里有些地方让你觉得不对劲。
There was something, I think, in the volume you didn't trust.
你有一些指标不太放心，于是及时转向了避险模式。
There were some indicators that you didn't trust, and you switched to risk off at the right time.
我们之前聊过好几次这个操作了，说实话，我当时真吓了一跳。
I think we've talked about that call quite a bit because, I don't know, it's just I was like, oh shit.
迈克这回真对了。
Like, Mike is right.
他确实有他的道理，因为那时候他的做法跟主流完全相反。
Like, he's doing something right because that was very contrarian at the time.
大家都觉得牛市还会继续，甚至觉得到了十一月、十二月也一样，觉得那只是个小回调。
People thought the bull market would continue, and including into, like, November and December, they thought, no, that was just a dip.
只是暂时的波动，很快就会重回牛市。
It was just like a temporary setback, and we'll be back to to bull territory.
你能说说当时是什么让你做出这个判断的吗？为什么你会这么决定？
Can you talk about what led you to making that call and why you made it?
是的。
Yeah.
说真的，我觉得我们已经走完了我所说的牛市的各个阶段。
You know, again, really kind of thought we had gone through what I would call, like, the sort of seasons of a bull market.
我心中有一套指标，用来判断市场周期的进展。
Like, I I sort of kind of have these markers that I'm looking for as cycles play out.
我觉得比特币的早期牛市阶段我们已经经历了。
And I thought we went through kind of the early bull period for Bitcoin.
比特币ETF推出、价格创出新高、减半之前，我们经历了财富创造的阶段。
I thought we went to kind of the wealth creation period for Bitcoin when the ETFs launched, and we we went to all time highs before the the halving.
当时 meme 币投机氛围特别浓厚。
We saw lots of speculation around meme coins.
Solana 也经历了一轮强劲的上涨。
We saw Solana have a really big, big cycle.
各种新项目都出现了疯狂的流动性热潮。
We saw new things come hyper liquid.
所以我当时觉得，我在一个周期里会关注的那些信号，基本上都已经出现了。
And so I was kind of of the mind that, like, most of the things that I've that I would look for to play out within a within a cycle have played out.
而让我在九月、十月那会儿更有信心去降低风险敞口的，就是这一点。
And the thing that kind of gave me probably a little more conviction to go risk off back in September, October period.
我们几乎是在10月10号崩盘前彻底转向保守了。说实话，我没法预测市场，我也不知道那件事会发生。
And we kinda went fully risk off, like, right before the the crash on on October 10, which, you know, we didn't have, like, any I couldn't you know, I can't predict the markets, and I, you know, I I didn't know that was gonna happen.
但我当时很确定的是，系统里堆积了大量的杠杆，而且这背后是有原因的。
But what I did have conviction in was that there was a ton of leverage in the system, and and there was a reason for it.
如果你是做交易的，想加杠杆，那最好的时机就是当有那种不在乎价格、公开表态要买入的人出现的时候，比如他说：嘿。
And it was if you're a trader and you wanna, you know, put leverage on, the best time to do that is when you have, like, a price agnostic buyer, like, who's publicly saying that, hey.
我们刚融了一大笔钱，打算直接去买各种现货资产。
We just raised, know, a bunch of money, and we're just gonna go buy the spot asset of of different things.
所以当时有很多基金，不仅买比特币和以太坊，还一路往风险更高的资产买。
And so there were lots of debts that were not only buying Bitcoin and ETH, but, like, all the way down the risk curve.
我们当时就想买那些我们知道后面会有资金涌入的东西。
We were trying to buy the things that we knew there was gonna be this wave behind.
我仔细想了一下，当时大家对杠杆实在太狂热了，一旦那些 treasury 公司停止买入，市场里明显剩下太多杠杆了。
As I play it out, people just got way too excited with the leverage, and you could see that there was just too much leverage in the market at the time once those treasury companies were kind of done buying, like, what was gonna be left there.
所以这一点对我来说还挺清楚的，市场里确实存在这样的局面。
So that was kind of somewhat clear to me, like, that that setup existed in the market.
如果背后没有持续的买盘支撑，那大概就是该离场的时候了。
And if there's not, like, durable buying behind that, then then, you know, it's probably time to get out.
所以我觉得，核心观点其实就是杠杆太高了。
So that was kind of the main I think the main thesis was just too much leverage.
这个周期已经走完了。
You know, cycle has gone on.
该发生的都发生了，风险明显偏向下行，所以我得把现金配置调整得跟这个判断一致。
We've seen everything already play out, and the risk is pointing to the downside, and I want to structure my cash position just to support that.
从这份报告和我看到的所有情况来说，你对这个周期的判断非常准。
I think from this report and from everything I've seen, you you called the cycle very well.
这一点上你完全没犯错。
No regrets there.
但过去十二个月里，你还有其他遗憾吗？
But are there any other regrets that you actually have during the last twelve months?
有没有哪些机会你错过了，其实应该抓住的？
Things you feel like you missed but should have caught?
是的。
Yeah.
总体来说我很满意，但事情从来都不可能完美。
You know, generally happy, but you never nothing's ever perfect.
所以还是有那么几件事。
And so a few things.
我们甚至在Bankless频道做过一期节目，聊过一些即将推出的ETHDAT项目。
So, you know, we I think we even did an episode maybe over on the bankless channel covering sort of some of the ETHDATs that were coming out.
BitMind就是我们投了一笔钱的项目，对我来说，这笔交易的成功标准是BitMind的表现要超过以太坊。
BitMind was one that we ended up putting some capital into, and that was a trade for me that, like, the success of that trade was going to be that Bit Bitmine outperformed ETH.
我们退出BitMind的时候确实赚了大约30%的利润，但它并没有跑赢以太坊。
And when we exited Bit Bitmine, we exited at a at a profit, about 30% profit, but that was that did not outperform ETH.
所以我总觉得，虽然你确实赚了钱，
So I kind of consider that even though, yeah, you made you made some money.
但其实我完全可以把这笔钱直接投到以太坊上，就像我平时考虑把资金投入比特币而不是山寨币一样。
I could have put that capital into ETH just the same way I think about putting capital into Bitcoin versus an Altcoin.
要是投到以太坊，收益说不定还能更高，哪怕我们当时已经赚了。
I could have put that into ETH and actually outperformed what we had even though we made money.
所以我觉得，这方面我们本来可以做得更好。
So that's something I would say we could have done better.
那段时间我有点太沉迷于模因币了，早期在Bonk和SPX 6900上赚得不错，但我们一向对这类币很谨慎。
Got a little too caught up with MemeCoin, so did did well early in the cycle with, like, Bonk and then SPX 6,900, and we're pretty selective with these.
我们不是随便乱买一通，实际上背后做了不少数据研究，就为了挑出有潜力的项目。
It's not like we're buying tons of them where we do a lot of we actually do a decent amount of data work behind the scenes to try to identify things.
当然，社交热度也会影响判断，我们前期表现不错，但后来可能太沉迷于模因币，结果有些仓位拿得太久。
Obviously, there's social elements, you know, that that come into play as well, but did pretty well and then started probably got a little too into memes and ended up, you know, kinda holding a few positions a little too late.
最后退出的时候，几个仓位都亏了钱。
When we exited, we took losses on a couple of our positions.
这些仓位都很小，说实话，我也没因此睡不着觉，但确实有些地方我可以做得更好。
These are small positions, and they you know, we didn't I didn't I didn't lose any sleep over this or anything, but stuff that I could've could've done better.
热度这种东西，我就是很难把握得住，总是站错队。
Hype is an asset that we just I have not been able to just get on the right side of hype.
后来我又买回来了，大概是七月左右，具体时间记不清了，当时价格在45美元上下。
Actually ended up buying it back in, I think it was July period, or I can't remember exactly when it was, but it was around $45.
最后我还是进场了，等到我们开始避险的时候，我本该继续持有，甚至跌到20块25的时候还该加仓。
Finally, you know, it bought into it and then exited that, like, at the you know, when when we went to risk off, I probably should have just held the position and just bought more when it came down to, you know, $20.25 dollars or so.
这算是一次教训。
So that's a that's a learning.
我回头想想，我们当时怎么处理的，为什么总踩不准热度，这背后其实暴露了一个关键问题——作为投资者，你特别想买一样东西，但它就是不跌到你预期的价格。
I think one one thing that I when I go back and sort of look at that, how how we've managed that and just not being on the right side of hype, what it did lead to and I think this is important where, like, again, psychology and, like, you wanna buy something and it's not coming to the price you want.
这种心理上的煎熬，对投资者来说真的很难熬。
It's a very difficult thing as an investor to deal with.
所以我后来开始更关注永续合约市场，整体上更深入地研究了这个领域。
What we the way that I handled that is, like, I got really interested in the perps markets just more broadly.
我们做了一个仪表盘，覆盖了去中心化和中心化的永续合约市场，这让我们重新关注起Lit，那时候它的价格已经跌得很低了。
We put together a dashboard covering both the decentralized and centralized perks markets that led us to start looking at lighter back in, you know, when it was when it was significantly down, kinda trading at its lows.
我们写了一份关于Lit的报告，之后我就买入了Lit。
We did a report on lighter, and I ended up buying lighter.
我当时在看Lit的热度和实际价值之间的比例。
I was looking at the lighter to hype sort of ratio.
我研究了他们的产品、团队，还有早期的用户增长，最后心想：这事儿值得一试。
I was looking at the products, you know, the team and just kind of the early traction that they had there and and and decided that, you know what?
这个永续合约市场足够大，至少能撑得起两个这样的项目。
This this perps market is large enough to support, like, two of these at least.
其中一个扎根在以太坊生态里，我觉得特别合理。
And one being in the Ethereum Ethereum ecosystem makes a lot of sense to me.
所以我们把资金投进了Lit，结果还不错。
And so we ended up deploying cash to Lit, and that that worked out.
自从我们买入后，Lit的实际表现已经超过了它的市场热度。
And Lit has actually outperformed hype since we bought it.
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所以我觉得这其实教会了我们一点，别老盯着机会追，要保持富足的心态。
So I think it's a little bit of a lesson of, like, you know, abundance mindset, you know, not chasing things.
千万别陷入匮乏的心态里。
You don't wanna be in that scarcity mindset.
最糟糕的错误，往往是你对某个资产执念太深，结果干出了背离自己目标和原则的事。
And the biggest mistakes are made when you kinda get twisted up on an asset and then end up doing something outside your your your your kind of goals and and and really the process you wanna stick to.
所以呢，这就是 hype 的情况。
So, you know, that's that's hype.
总之，我们在这件事上做得不错。
So, anyways, we we've done well there.
Zcash 可能是我们上一轮最大的失误，我真觉得这算个失误。
Zcash is probably the biggest miss I think we had last cycle, and I I really actually consider it a a miss.
我之所以觉得是失误，是因为我一直盯着它。
The reason I consider it a miss is because I was watching it.
对吧？
Right?
那时候，大概是九月、十月，价格在五十块六左右。
When well, like, in September, October, it was, like, $50.60 dollars or so.
我注意到一些早期迹象，有人开始大肆吹捧隐私和Zcash。
I saw the early signs of, like, people bull posting on about privacy and Zcash.
我当时觉得，市场正在转向避险模式。
And I was of the mind that, like, markets are risk off.
我们正在进入避险阶段。
Like, we're going risk off.
我基本上已经全仓现金了，心里也打算避开它。
Like, I had already gone to cash basically, and I was fading it, basically, in my in my head.
这恰恰反映出投资者生涯的难点——如何同时容纳两种相互矛盾的想法。
And I think that's just, like this just, like, highlights the challenge of the life of an investor and being able to hold two conflicting thoughts at the same time.
我没错，确实该避险了；但我也错了，因为在周期后期，市场依然充满投机，资产还是会围绕某个标的聚集。
Like, I was correct that it was time to go risk off, but I was incorrect that, like, it's also true that, like, late in cycles, you've got these you do still have a lot of speculation in the system, and things can consolidate around one asset.
我本可以构建一个更完整的逻辑，比如：好吧。
It could I could have put together a thesis that, like, okay.
现在有挺多人在讨论这件事。
These there's enough people that are talking about this.
我看到纳巴尔·拉瓦坎特在大力鼓吹Zcash。
I saw Nabal Ravakant bull posting Zeke.
这本该是我一个明显的信号。
That should have been just, like, an obvious signal to me.
所以回头想想，我得诚实地问自己：当时有哪些迹象其实已经比较明显了？
And so, yeah, going back, I think just being intellectually honest and saying, like, what were the things that sort of made it somewhat clear?
当然，当时并看不清楚，但现在回头看，就显而易见了。
Obviously, it's not clear at the time, but in hindsight, it seems clear.
到底是什么因素让事情变得清晰了？
What were the things that made that clear?
下次我该怎么做得更好？
And, you know, what can I do better next time?
我觉得关键就在于能同时容纳这些矛盾的观点，这真的很难。
I think it's just it's really just this being able to hold these conflicting views, which is which is really challenging.
但你知道，我总是希望我的错失是这种类型的——往好的方向错失，而不是死守着一个东西太久，最后亏了钱。
But, you know, I always want my misses to be like that, like, on the upside rather than, you know, holding something too long and and losing money.
所以这算是一次错失。
So it's a miss.
我们没亏钱，但我觉得这还是有点遗憾，因为哪怕在周期末尾，我们本来还能再把投资组合再推高一点。
You know, we didn't lose money, but I consider it somewhat of a miss that we could have sort of boosted the portfolio a little bit more even towards the end of the cycle.
我有时候担心，当你把这种事称为错失，或者我回想自己犯过的错时，可能会吸取错误的教训，从而扭曲了自己的投资组合。
I sometimes worry when when you talk about that as a miss or when I think about, like, misses I've made that I might take the wrong lessons away and bend my portfolio.
更广泛地说，你经历过几次错失，但如果你有一套自己的策略，也对自己的方法有信心，那作为投资者，你也得接受有时候就是会错过一些机会。
Like, I guess a broader question is, you've gone through a few misses, but, like, I mean, if you have a strategy and some conviction in terms of, like, what works for you, at some level, you also, as an investor, need to be okay with missing some things.
对吧？
Right?
比如说
Like
你得忠于自己。
You gotta be true to yourself.
对我来说，Zcash 这事就是，如果你开了个口子，允许非周期性的价值储存资产进入？
The Zcash thing to me is just like, I mean, if you open the door to off cycle store of value type assets?
那岂不是彻底动摇了你的整个逻辑，还让你在整体投资上犯更大的错，对吧？
Like, does that undermine your whole thesis entirely and cause you to make bigger misses with the broader portfolio Yeah.
下次再因为追 Zcash 这样的东西而错失机会？
By chasing something like Zcash the next time?
你明白我的意思吗？
Do you know?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
我觉得这么说挺公允的。
I think it's fair.
我觉得这么说挺公允的。
I think it's fair.
而且我觉得这些都得具体情况具体分析。
And I think these are all case by case things.
我们一直尽量制定一个计划，我也在努力这么做。
And, you know, we've been somewhat I try to, like, have a plan.
更重要的是，你要有计划、有流程，做事要有纪律。
I think the more more important thing is, like, have a plan, have a process, have some discipline with what you're doing.
但同时，就像斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒说的，要有坚定的信念，但别太死板。
But, also, like, you like, it's sort of like Stanley Druckenmiller talks about, you know, strong conviction loosely held.
对吧？
Right?
在处理事情的时候，你还是得保持一定的灵活性。
You still have to be somewhat flexible in how you approach things.
比如我们之前灵活调整的一点是：我刚进入这个周期时，本来打算只专注比特币这个核心资产，等它见底后再考虑配置其他币种。
Like, one thing we've been flexible on is when I came into the cycle, I was kind of of the mind that we're gonna just really focus on Bitcoin as the alpha asset and try to try to identify when that thing has bottomed, and then we'll allocate to all coins.
如果我一直死守那个想法，可能会错过很多机会。
I think that I probably would have missed a lot if I stuck to that.
所以我们后来也稍微调整了一下策略。
So we did actually pivot on that a little bit as well.
当然，要有流程、有纪律，但同时保持开放的心态，我觉得这很重要。
So, yes, definitely have process and be disciplined, but also stay open minded is, I think, is is important.
但这一点挺难把握的。
And that's tricky.
对吧？
Right?
现在的投资组合。
The current portfolio.
迈克，今天时间不够，我们没法逐项细聊，但你目前至少有五个不同的投资类别在actively运作。
I don't think we have time, Mike, today to go through this section by section, but you've got about five different sleeves or or categories that you are actively deploying in and and is currently deployed right now.
价值储存，主要是比特币。
Store of value, which is primarily Bitcoin.
你在这个类别里持有以太坊。
You have ETH in that category.
你对以太坊不太关注，而且你解释了原因。
You're not looking much towards ETH, and you and you give your reasons why.
当然，你还把去中心化的永续合约平台作为一个类别。
Then you have, of course, perps exchanges, decentralized perps exchanges as a category.
链上期权，这个类别本身就已经有点反主流了。
On chain options, which even that as a category is somewhat contrarian.
你在这上面有一些布局，我觉得特别有意思。
You've got some plays there, which I find very interesting.
还有消费零售和模因币，你依然保留着这一块。
And then consumer retail and and meme coins, you still have that.
另外就是稳定币，还有人工智能和数字身份。
And then stable coins and also AI and digital identity.
关于这些类别，你整体想说些什么？
What do you wanna say maybe broadly about those categories?
或者你可以挑一个来详细聊聊。
Or you could pick one to to talk about.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得总的来说，我们做监控列表时，涵盖了大约35个来自不同领域的项目。
I think I think broadly speaking, the work that we're doing, you know, with the watch list, we've got about 35 projects across a number of different sectors.
这是一份精心挑选的名单。
These are like that's a curated list.
你知道的。
You know?
现在市面上有成千上万种加密货币。
There's there's thousands and thousands of crypto tokens out there.
我们基本上筛选出了我们认为值得投资的一批，主要看产品与市场的契合度、我们想布局的领域、代币经济模型，还有团队背景这些因素。
We've kind of, like, narrowed it down to, like, the set that we think is as investable based on, you know, product market fit, the categories we wanna be in, and token economics and and leadership teams, all of that.
我觉得这些工作正是构建非比特币投资组合的核心。
I think the work that we do there is kind of the key to, like, building out the non BTC portfolio.
我觉得我对目前市场的走向以及我们所处的这些领域还挺满意的。
And I think I'm happy with sort of where I think the market's going and the sectors that that we're in.
我觉得目标很明确，但要在这些所谓的山寨币——也就是除了比特币以外的投资标的里——合理分配资金，其实更难。
I would say, like, the goal, you know, in the and and I think it's even harder to sort of get your allocations right in these in maybe, like, I guess we'll just call them broadly altcoins, anything that that you're investing outside of Bitcoin.
想抄底特别不容易，因为这类资产波动太大了。
It's really hard to get the timing right on buying the lows because of there's so much volatility with these assets.
我的想法是，等风险回报比开始转向有利的时候再买，比如价格跌了九成左右的时候。
My thinking on it is, like, I wanna buy them when I think, like, the risk return the risk reward is shifting to the upside when they're when they're, you know, down 90% or so.
价格走势已经横盘了。
The charts are flatlining.
交易量也明显萎缩了。
Volumes are lower.
我们能做一些链上数据分析，比如按成本区间分组的持仓情况。
We we we're able to do some on chain data analysis on, like, cost basis cohorts.
我们对比特币就这么做，其实对一些山寨币也用同样的方法。
We do this with Bitcoin, but we actually do it on some of these altcoins as well.
我们希望确信，那些投机性资金已经退出了这类资产。
We wanna have some conviction that the sort of, like, hot money has has exited those types of things.
这正是所有基本面分析所关注的核心。
So that's kind of what the what goes into in all of the fundamental analysis.
这也是我们决定买入这些资产的依据。
That's what goes into the process of buying these things.
我觉得我们在本轮熊市中的表现相当不错。
And I think we've done a pretty good job in this bear market.
不过，对于山寨币来说，市场分化确实让人头疼。
Been tricky with with altcoins, with dispersion in the market.
总有一些币跑赢了比特币，而且涨势还很持久。
Something's outperforming, you know, Bitcoin and doing so pretty durably.
我觉得这一点特别有意思。
I think that's been really interesting.
我们早在五月就入手了轻仓，这还是我第一次经历这样的熊市——投资组合里有些资产居然涨了一倍、两倍，甚至更多。
You know, we got into lighter back in May, and, you know, this is the first cycle the first bear market I've had where, you know, parts of the portfolio are going up a 100%, 200% in some cases.
所以我们取得了一些不错的成果。
So we've had some nice successes.
有几项资产，我觉得我们进场得稍微早了点。
A few assets, I think, got in a little early.
Pump 就是一个例子。
So pump is one.
Pump 这个，说实话，回头想想我们当初进场的思路，确实有点早了。
Pump is, like, I think, you know, when I go back and think about sort of our our entries into pump, really, the thinking here so we were a little early.
Pump 曾经跌到比我的成本价低了33%，但我完全能接受。
So pump traded down, I think, 33% below my cost basis, which which I'm okay with.
这种事在熊市里不是第一次发生了，我们之前也挺过来了，而且恢复得不错。
Like, we've had this has happened before in bear markets, and we've we've we've recovered pretty nicely.
但要是回头来看，我可能会问自己：有没有哪里可以做得不一样？
But I think when I look back and say, what could I have done a little differently?
我是不是该对 Pump 更有耐心一点？
Should I have sort of, like, been sort of more patient with pump?
我回头再看的时候，其实我们对Pump做了大量的研究。
When I when I come back to this, like, we were doing we've we done done a ton of research on on pump.
每次我深入研究，或者去探究那些主流说法，再看看对立面的观点时。
And every time that I did more research or went deeper on it or tried to investigate a narrative that I thought was prevailing and seeing seeing what the other side of it was.
每次我都忍不住感叹：这玩意儿随时可能反弹。
Every time I did this, I just kept coming back to, like, wow.
因为它的基本面太扎实了，我能拆穿很多所谓的负面说法。
This thing could just reprice on me anytime because the fundamentals were so strong, and I was able to kind of debunk a lot of the sort of narratives.
所以我们才决定买入。
And so that's why we were buying it.
我们觉得，其他资产也可能出现类似的情况。
We thought, you know, there's a chance other assets were doing that.
我们觉得它们正在分化。
We're separating.
我们觉得这种可能性是存在的。
We thought there was a chance.
我们进场得稍微早了点，但我觉得现在的位置还不错。
We were a little early, but I think we're in a good spot on these.
就像我们在很多周播节目里说的，目标是在这些资产估值低的时候入场。
And like we've been saying on on, like, a lot of the weekly shows, the goal is to get in these at valuations.
我们会分批买入，这样如果价格真跌了，只要你的长期逻辑还在，跌30%也能拿现金再补仓，等市场反转时，你就占了主动。
Like, we try to scale into them so that, you know, if it does drop on you, if you've got a nice long term thesis and it drops 30% on you, you can just buy some more with the cash, and now you're in a much better position for when things turn.
所以我们现在就是这么操作的。
So that's kinda how we're playing it.
这也是为什么我们留着一部分现金。
That's why we're keeping some cash cash back.
我们的目标是赶在市场反转之前，提前布局，等这些资产涨两倍的时候，你已经稳稳坐在里面了。
And, yeah, it's like the goal is to just get in a position where you can before the market even turns, some of these things, you're up a 200%.
我们已经在几项资产上做到了这一点。
We've been able to accomplish that on a few of the assets.
我希望整个投资组合最终都能在本轮熊市结束前，达到这种状态。
I want, like, the portfolio broadly to eventually be in that type of position towards the end of this end of this bear market.
我觉得这个投资组合考虑得非常周全，当然，没有任何投资组合能做到百分之百正确。
Well, I could say it's a very well considered portfolio, and, of course, no portfolio could be, like, a 100% correct.
投资组合的目标本来也不是这样。
That's not the goal of a portfolio.
这根本不可能。
That's impossible.
但背后的逻辑和理由都很合理。
But the rationale and the reasons make a lot of sense.
是的。
Yeah.
我来分享几个我在看的投资组合里发现的、挺反直觉的持仓。
I I'll just throw out some of the interesting contrarian positions I find in the portfolios I see.
比如PUMP，现在这个阶段还持有这种币，其实挺反主流的，毕竟现在经济环境下还玩梗币。
You know, one is PUMP, which is somewhat contrarian at this point in time, like meme coins in this economy.
迈克，你这操作是啥思路啊？
Like, what are you doing there, Mike?
另一个是Athena，现在已经跌了94%。
Another is Athena, which is actually down 94%.
一个资产跌了94%，还能指望它反弹吗？
When an asset goes down 94%, what are the hopes of recovery there?
但它还是被放进投资组合里了。
And yet it's in the portfolio.
你还在链上期权领域有一些挺特别的布局，那是个市值很低的项目。
You also have some interesting plays in the on chain options field, a pretty low market cap thing.
我很喜欢这个投资组合的多样性。
So I love the variation of the portfolio.
我自己也在对比，看看我的笔记和这些有什么不同。
I find it's very interesting to compare my own individual notes too.
说到这个，我之前在开场时答应过，也许可以聊聊我是怎么用这些数据的，说不定对其他TDR Pro会员也有帮助。
And on that, I did promise in the intro, maybe we could talk about what I actually do with some of this data in case it's it's useful for other TDR Pro members.
我们来聊聊吧？
Shall we do that?
我特别想听听。
I'd love to hear it.
对。
Yeah.
过去这一年，我收到了很多人的反馈，真的很有意思。
It's been interest it's been you know, the last year, I've gotten a lot of feedback from people.
能有你这样的用户，还一起做这些节目，真是太棒了。
It's fantastic having you as, like, a user of this platform and doing these shows with you.
我很想了解你是具体怎么使用TDR Pro的。
So I would love to hear the details behind how you're using TDR Pro.
正如你所说，我觉得这个产品特别适合个人投资者这类人群，因为投资本身确实是个孤独的过程，但你真正需要的，其实是一个投资委员会，一些优质的想法，互相激发、共同进步。
Well, as you say, I think it's a great product for a solo investor, that type of class, because as you said, being an investor is kind of a lonely journey, but you what you really want, what you really need is kind of an investment committee, some of good ideas, iron sharpened iron.
你总得找个人聊聊，一个聪明又懂行的人。
You wanna bounce ideas off of somebody else who's who's smart.
现在你完全可以做到，这也是我觉得2026年这么酷的地方——你可以把迈克尔·纳托的思维，和你欣赏的其他分析师的观点结合起来。
And now what you can do, and this is what's so cool, I think, about the the year that we live in, which is 2026, is you can take someone like Michael Nato's brain, combine that with other analysts that you love.
我特别喜欢的一个是迈克尔·霍威尔，再加上你本地运行的AI智能，它能自动处理所有笔记，和你的投资组合匹配，甚至直接生成买入指令。
So one that I love is Michael Howell, and then you have your own AI intelligence locally that can run all these notes, match it with your portfolio, and actually generate buy orders.
这基本上就是我现在的操作方式。
That's kind of what I'm doing with my process.
所以迈克，我最近一直在深入用Claude做AI实验，打造我所谓的‘第二大脑’来辅助投资决策，而TDR Pro提供的数据，正是这个系统里关键的一环。
So Mike, I've been going kind of deepish in AI using Claude to create what I call my second brain investing and help me plan some of this, and the TDR Pro data, what you're doing is a key input to this.
我来简单说说我的做法。
So here's what I do basically.
我用了一个特别喜欢的工具。
I have a tool that I love.
是个笔记软件。
It's a notes tool.
叫Obsidian。
It's called Obsidian.
它是开源的。
It's open source.
基本上是免费的。
It's free basically.
当然你可以付费升级云服务，但我主要用它来以 Markdown 格式记笔记，这样 AI 很容易读取。
I mean you can pay a cloud kind of premium, and this just takes notes for me in MD format so an AI can quite easily read it.
这就是 Obsidian。
So that's Obsidian.
另外我还用一个叫 Obsidian 网页剪藏的工具。
And then I also have this tool called the Obsidian Web Clipper.
它装在浏览器里，固定在顶部，能让我直接把网页，包括图片，保存成 Markdown 格式。
So this is in my browser, it hangs up at the top, and it allows me to just download any page, including the images of that page, into an MD format.
所以我可以自己完成网页内容的采集。
So I can basically do the scraping for myself.
之所以需要这么做，是因为网上各种网页的 HTML 结构太杂，Claude 原本读不了，但通过网页剪藏保存到本地文件夹后，我的 AI 工具就能直接读取这些 Markdown 文件了。
The reason that's necessary is because, you know, all sorts of different, you know, HTML formats that my Claude natively can't reach, but if I download it in my web clipper, it downloads to a local folder, and then my my AI tool can go read that as an MD file and has that in a native way.
所以我有这个工具，再加上 Claude，还有 JustDeccel。
And so I have that, and then I have Claude, and then JustDeccel.
所以我最喜欢做的事就是，把我最欣赏的分析师——现在在加密货币领域，尤其是你，基于你做的这份深度报告——把你的报告下载成MD文件存到本地，再把你的投资组合、关注列表和相关价格也一并下载下来。
And so what I love to do is I like to get my favorite analysts, your my favorite in crypto at this point in the cycle, especially given this call record that you do, and I download your reports into an MD file on my local machine, and then I also go through and I download your portfolio and your watch list and the prices of that.
然后在Claude里，我的系统里有个专门的分析功能，我会让它去读那个文件夹，对比一下迈克现在的操作和我的投资组合有什么不同。
And so within Claude, within my environment, I have kind of a skill that's kind of a TDR skill, and I'm like, okay, go read the folder and go compare what Mike is doing right now with my portfolio.
接着我会跟‘你’辩论，不是真正的你，而是你的一个数字版本，问：迈克有没有考虑到这一点？
And then I argue with you, basically, not you, but a version of you, and I say, well, has Mike considered this?
迈克·霍威尔的数据呢？
What about Michael Howell's data?
我会去他的Substack把内容抓过来，放进我的第二大脑，整合进去。我真正想做的，是第一次收集和追踪信息时，先用自己的框架评估，然后试着模仿你的投资组合，做个属于我自己的版本，加点个人风格。
And I'll go to his Substack, and I'll bring that into my second brain, and I'll incorporate And all of what I'm trying to actually get to, so first time I'm clipping and tracking things, I'm evaluating this through my own framework, and then I'm trying to build my own version of your portfolio, kind of a copy trade mirrored version with my own flair on it, okay?
挺有意思的。
Interesting,
对。
yep.
有些事我就不做了，比如你选的一些表情包币，我还没自信去跟风。
Some things I'm not doing, for instance, is you're picking some individual memes, I don't feel the confidence to do that.
所以如果我要玩币圈热点，我更倾向于选 Pump Fun 上的热点指数，而不是单独的币种。我会根据自己的需求做调整，然后让 Claude 帮我设置限价单，告诉我该执行什么操作。
So if I'm doing a meme play, it's more like the meme index of pump fun rather than individual So I'm customizing it for myself, and then I'm having essentially Claude create limit orders and tell me what to execute.
这就是我用这些数据的方式，效果特别好。我觉得未来会出现一类新型的资金配置者，就像 AI 赋能的独立创业者一样。
So that's how I'm using this data, and it's been brilliant, and I think there is a a new class of capital allocators that will emerge just like there's solo entrepreneurs powered by AI.
我相信会看到越来越多的独立投资者，借助像你这样优秀的分析师提供的数据，来管理自己的投资组合。
I think we will see a rise in solo investors powered with other smart analysts like yourself in putting this data to kind of manage their own portfolio.
整个过程非常有趣，而这个数据集起到了关键作用。
And it's been a lot of fun, and this dataset has been key.
我不确定有没有别人也这么用这些数据，但今年它确实为我打开了全新的局面。
I don't know if anyone else is using the data like that, but it's been a huge unlock for me this year.
听你这么说真是太有意思了。
That is super interesting to hear.
很高兴你能跟我分享这些，我也一直在努力收集大家的反馈。
I'm glad you shared that with me, and, you know, I'm trying to get as much feedback from people.
如果有人想联系我，随时可以回复我们发给付费会员的邮件。
So if people, you know, wanna reach out, you can always respond to the emails that we publish to to Pro members.
我很乐意参与交流。
I'm happy to engage.
而且，从我的角度看，大家使用这个产品的方式其实各有不同。
And, yeah, I I I think from my perspective, there's different ways people have been using the product.
听到你把AI和其他分析师这些东西结合起来用，真的很有趣。
It's interesting to hear how you're incorporating AI and then, like, other analysts and things into that.
你知道，互联网上、Substack、X平台，到处都是有价值的信息。
And, you know, it's you can get so much value off of the Internet, Substack, x.
网上能拿到的东西实在太多了。
There's just so much value out there.
像我买其他通讯简报、获取研究或数据的时候，主要都是从互联网经济里找，而不是去看高盛或者摩根大通的报告——我就是这么做的，我觉得只要信息来源选对了，反而能获得更好的价值。
And, like, I this is how we when I when I pay for other newsletters or get research or data from different places, like, I'm largely getting it from the Internet economy, and I'm not not reading Goldman Sachs reports or JP more like, this is how I do, and I think you can get better value just by sourcing properly.
听到你用AI模型把这套方法又推进了一层，真的很有意思。
And it's interesting to hear how you're then taking that to another level using using the AI models
嗯。
well.
选对信息源是关键。
Sourcing properly is key.
我呢，会用表格来对比你的投资组合和我的投资组合。
And, you know, what I'm doing is I have spreadsheets to compare kinda your portfolio versus my portfolio.
我想赢过你，迈克，虽然这可能有点难。
I'm trying to beat you, Mike, if that's even possible.
对吧？
Right?
你说的标普指数，我就想试试自己能不能超过它，这过程特别有意思。
So you said Mike index, see if I can even beat that on my own, and so that's been a lot of fun.
但正如你所说，输入的数据必须靠谱，现在网上到处都是博主、投资者，不少人都在推自己的持仓。
But as you say, it is key to get the right data as input because there's a lot of influencer influencers out there, there's a lot of investors out there, there's a lot of people that are kind of shilling their bag.
我从TDR拿到的信息是按权重来的，因为我知道你真金白银投在里面，你提供数据的动机不是卖我什么加密资产，而是实实在在地在用这些资产做投资。
What I get from TDR is like stake weighted input because I know you have skin in the game with this portfolio, and I know the incentive around the data that you provide is not to sell me some crypto assets, you're genuinely deploying against it.
所以这些数据对我的模型来说特别有价值。
So that's why it's a valuable data set for for my models.
没错。
Yeah.
您打算定期发布这些年度报告吗？听众在哪里可以找到它们？
Has been Do you intend to do these annual reports on a regular basis, and where can listeners find them?
是的，我想再补充几点关于使用场景的看法。
Yeah, and maybe I'll just wanna add a few things on, like, the use cases.
我发现有些TDR Pro会员其实并不跟单交易，他们可能只是想了解我们如何把握市场周期、管理风险，或者有哪些值得关注的其他资产，但他们都是经验丰富的投资者。
So I have found, it's very interesting, there are some TDR Pro members that actually do not copy trade, and some of them, maybe they get some insights on sort of how we're managing the cycle, managing risk, or other assets to go into, but they're kind of they're big boys.
对吧？
Right?
这些人都是机构级别的。
These are, like, institutions.
他们有自己的操作方式，但依然希望获取我们的视角。
They're doing their own thing, but they still want the view.
所以从我的角度看，至少有一类用户，他们并不交易，只是想参考我们的分析，觉得这套视角很有价值，并把它融入自己的决策中。
So I think that's, like, one, at least from my perspective, one sort of user who just wants the view, you know, thinks it's a smart view and is incorporating that into what they're doing.
还有一类用户，他们自己管理资金，也会参考其他分析师和付费产品，把那些想法和TDR Pro里的观点结合起来用。
There's another set of users that also may may be kind of doing managing their own money, probably accessing other analysts, other paid products out there, and maybe incorporating ideas from there and then also incorporating some ideas from maybe TDR Pro.
另外，我也注意到有不少人，其实是在模仿TDR Pro的投资组合，包括我们的风险管理和入场策略。
And then we also I've seen there's there's a decent number of people that I think are somewhat mirroring the port the TDR Pro portfolio, how we're managing risks, how we're entering markets.
总有些机会可以挑我们买入价之外的点位进场，诸如此类的情况。
There's always opportunities to, like, try to buy at different prices that we try to buy at, things like that.
所以我觉得，实现方式其实有很多种。
So I think there's a lot of different ways to to do it.
我就想跟你刚才说的一样，把大家的利益对齐，真正把身家押上去。
And I'm just trying to, like you said, align incentives, put some stake behind it.
在加密货币领域，这真的很难。
I think it's really difficult for crypto.
大家对加密市场兴趣浓厚，但真正靠谱、能提供这种有‘真金白银背书’的信息源却少之又少。
There's a ton of interest in the crypto markets, and there's not a ton of great sources where you get this, like, stake weighted I I don't know how you're phrasing it.
就是那种有‘利益绑定’的洞察——你知道分享信息的人，他的动机和你是对齐的，至少你能信得过。
There's stake weighted intelligence or whatever where you know that the incentive of the person who's sharing that information with you is is aligned, you know, with you or at least you can trust that.
这正是我们一直在做的事，过程还挺有意思的。
So that's really what we're trying to do, and it's been it's been a fun journey.
我对这个项目特别充满期待。
I'm really excited about it.
幸好我没去搞一个基金。
I'm glad I didn't launch a fund.
幸好我一边做这个，一边还在运营TDR Pro。
I'm glad I'm running TDR Pro alongside this.
它是个成本很低的产品，能触达更广泛的用户。
It's like a low cost product, and we can reach a much bigger audience.
更让人惊讶的是，我们现在已经有了来自79个国家的用户。
And what's pretty wild is we've we have customers in 79 countries already.
才做了一年，就已经做到这个程度，真不容易。
We've been doing this for for a year, which is pretty incredible.
呃，你刚才问我的问题，我倒有点记不清了。
So, yeah, I I forget the question that you asked me.
业绩数据。
Performance data.
现在网站上展示的就是这些。
So that is that that's on the website right now.
我们刚才提到的这份报告，TDR Pro会员可以获取。
This report that we talked about is available for TDR Pro members.
那你以后会定期发布业绩数据吗？
And then are you going to continue to publish performance data on some sort of frequency?
会的。
Yeah.
你现在已经在分享了。
So you're sharing right now.
你分享的是我们本周刚发布的最新投资组合。
You're sharing the latest portfolio that we shared this week.
对。
Right.
所以今后，我还不太确定这些数据什么时候会上线网站。
So going forward, I'm not sure exactly when this is gonna be up on the website.
我估计大概两三周内吧，我们会加上未实现盈亏、已实现盈亏，以及和基准的对比表现。
I'm thinking within two a few weeks or so, But we're gonna have the unrealized p and l plus the realized p and l, the performance against benchmarks.
我很乐意听取客户的反馈，如果有任何想看到的内容，随时可以给我发邮件。
I'm happy to take feedback from, you know, customers so people can email me if there's things that they want to see.
除了盈亏数据，我们从一开始就在分享每一笔交易，大家都能在每周的投资组合里看到备注栏里的操作说明和我们的决策思路。
In addition to just, like, the p and l, we obviously, we've been we've been since day one, we've been sharing every trade that we're making so people can go through the weekly portfolios and always see in the notes column sort of the changes and kind of what we've been doing.
所以，希望整体感觉是透明的。
So, hopefully, it's you know, feels transparent.
而且和大家的期待是一致的。
It's aligned.
当然，也希望回报能不错，接下来的周期我们希望能有好的表现。
And, obviously, hopefully, know, the returns, and we're gonna have a, hopefully, a good cycle here moving forward.
所以
So
如果你正在听，而且还不是TDR Pro会员，我猜你应该可以免费试用一下。
If you're listening, you're not a TDR Pro member, there's a free trial available for you, I believe.
试用期是三十天。
It's a thirty day trial.
你可以连接你的第二大脑，用这些数据看看，成为会员后能解锁哪些功能。
So you can hook up your second brain, use the data, see see what is unlocked when you become a subscriber.
我们会在节目笔记里附上链接。
We'll include a link in the show notes.
我也会在节目笔记里放上我提到的那些工具的链接。
I'll also include a link in the show notes to some of the tools I mentioned that I use.
不过，我觉得最棒的搭配方式是，把这些数据和一个智能分析师结合起来，或者用你自定义的AI系统来匹配你的投资组合。
Now, again, I think the a beautiful pairing is you take this data and you mirror this with an intelligent analyst, mirror this with your AI system that you could customize it for your portfolio.
在结束之前，我最后问一个问题。
Last question before we end.
一年的表现，最后打个分数，你会给自己打多少分？
So a year of performance, final letter grade, what would you give yourself?
我给自己打个B加。
I'm gonna give it a a b plus.
B加。
B plus.
我们还有很多提升空间。
We still got you got you can't there's still room for improvement.
我们还有很多提升空间。
There's still room for improvement.
我觉得我们做得不错，尤其对风险的把控让我很满意。
I think we've done really well, and I'm I'm really happy with just managing risk.
我们擅长的主要是控制风险、理解市场周期，牢牢把握住这一点。
And I think the things that we've been good at is managing risks, understanding the cycle, really, like, anchoring to that.
亏钱的时候，我们也都是小亏，没大亏，这背后有很多原因。
And then when we lose money, losing it on small amounts and not in in big, big, big ways, There's a lot of reasons.
要做好这件事，需要投入大量工作。
There's a lot of work that goes into doing this.
所以呢，我们要是犯了错，我也不会太苛责自己，但我觉得我们做得真的很好。
And so I don't wanna, you know, beat myself up too bad when when we do make a mistake, but I think we've done a really good job.
而且希望对别人也有帮助，我们也在努力把这款产品的成本压到最低。
And, hopefully, it's valuable to others, and I think, you know, we're trying to keep the cost of this product as low as possible.
希望对DEFI REPORT的客户来说，也能带来不错的回报。
Hopefully, it provides a good, you know, ROI for customers at DEFI REPORT as well.
所以，就是这样。
So There you go.
我觉得这个评分挺合适的。
I I think I agree with that letter grade.
我平时打分比较严格。
I'm a tough grader.
我觉得周期讨论这部分可以给A，资产选择到现在为止给B，不过未来有可能升到A。
So I I I would probably give you an a for the cycle calls and probably a b for the asset selection so far, but that could convert into an a.
得看接下来的表现了。
We'll have to see what the future performance ticket is.
B加听起来挺合适的。
So b plus sounds about right to me.
咱们就到这里吧，各位。
Let's end it here, guys.
迈克和我下周会再回来，做个常规的周期报告。
Mike and I will be next back next week, I think, with a typical cycle type report.
但在那之前，得说清楚，这些都不是财务建议。
But until then, you know none of this has been financial advice.
这只是一个投资者的日记。
This is an investor journal.
我们和你们一样，都在这个过程中同行。
We're alongside the journey just like you.
下次再见，保持好奇。
Until next time, stay curious.
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