为什么比特币（BTC）持续遵循四年周期？

欢迎来到去中心化金融报告。

Welcome to the DeFi report.

今天的问题是：为什么比特币会遵循四年周期？

The question today, why does Bitcoin track the four year cycle?

这是个大问题。

That's a big question.

我们来深入探讨一下。

We're gonna dive into it.

2026年6月24日。

06/24/2026.

迈克，过去几年我越来越坚定地这么说：别忽视这个周期。

You know, Mike, I have started saying this in the past couple of years, like, saying it with a bit more passion and a bit more conviction, don't fade the cycle, is what I say.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

因为这是第四次，加密货币的牛市和熊市准时遵循了这个四年周期。

And it's because this is the fourth time on schedule a bull and bear market in crypto has followed this four year schedule, this four year timeline.

每次到了牛市期间，尤其是我听到很多人开始忽视这个周期。

And every time during, especially I hear it during the the bull market, people start fading the cycle.

这次不一样了。

This time it's different.

这次是机构资金进场了。

You know, this time it was institutional capital.

上一次是Suzu在谈超级周期。

Last time it was Suzu talking about a super cycle.

熊市时他们也一样，总在唱衰。

They also do the same during the bear market.

说什么比特币完了，加密货币再也不会翻身了。

It takes the form of, oh, Bitcoin's dead, crypto will never go back.

那不就是个挺滑稽的庞氏骗局吗？

Wasn't that a funny Ponzi scheme?

你还记得那时候的那股热潮吗？

Remember when we had that fad?

每次无论是牛市还是熊市，他们都忽视这个周期，结果都错了。

And every time, both on the bull side and the bear side, they've faded it and they've been wrong.

他们真该停止忽视这个周期了。

They need to stop fading it.

但我也能理解，为什么大家会质疑四年周期这个说法——听起来太随意了，简直像一种信仰，甚至有点像宗教。

But I also understand this, I also understand why people want to question the four year cycle assumption because it sounds like, it sounds arbitrary, it sounds like a statement of faith, almost like a religion.

你跟我说能按四年周期预测市场走势？凭什么？这有什么理性依据？人们却只说别忽视这个周期。

Oh, like you're telling me you can predict market cycles on a four year schedule, like why, why should, like there's not a rational basis and people reply with just like don't fade this cycle.

所以我明白，为什么有人会对此提出疑问。

So I understand why there would be a question about it.

我觉得今天我们报告想探讨的核心问题，也是你想找的答案是：有没有什么基本面可以被观察到？

I think the question we want to get into in today's report and the question you are seeking to answer is are there fundamentals that we could see?

有没有实际的、可衡量、可量化的驱动因素，能让我们看清为什么这个四年周期总在重复，以及它未来还会不会继续？

Are there actual tangible drivers, some evidence in the data that we can see and measure and quantify and that will tell us why the four year cycle keeps playing out and whether it will play out in the future.

你觉得这是关于信贷和杠杆的故事？其实所有周期可能都是这样。

You think this is a story of credit and leverage, think, which maybe all cycles really are.

所有的金融周期，本质上都是信贷和杠杆在起作用。

All financial cycles are credit and leverage.

你看看稳定币的供应量。

Any you're looking at stablecoin supply.

你看看去中心化金融的贷款情况。

You're looking at DeFi loans.

你再看看衍生品市场。

You're looking at derivatives.

当然，听众朋友们，别走开，后面还有重要内容。

Of course, for listeners, stick around to the end.

迈克，我还要问问你那些关于以太坊的争议性观点，很多人都在问这个。

Mike, I'm also gonna ask you about your controversial takes that people have been asking about about Ether.

关于以太坊，你怎么看？

What about Ether?

那Solana呢？

What about Solana as well?

我们一会儿来聊聊这个。

So we'll talk about that.

别走开，后面还有更多精彩内容。

Stick to the end to hear all that.

不过我很好奇，你写的这份报告，也就是我们马上要讨论的这份，你觉得它能完全解释清楚为什么比特币会遵循四年周期吗？

I guess my question going into this though is do you think today's report, the report that we're about to get into that you've written, do you think this fully answers the question of why Bitcoin tracks four year cycles?

还是说，读完你这份报告之后，依然有些谜团没解开？

Or is there still some mystery left at the end of you finishing today's report?

我觉得确实还留有一些未解之谜。

Well, I I do think there is still some mystery left to this.

这个现象特别有意思——居然能大致预测比特币的高点和低点什么时候出现。

It is a very fascinating phenomenon, this idea that you could sort of predict when Bitcoin's going to peak and when it's going to bottom.

听起来挺荒谬的，毕竟市场本该是有效的。

It seems really silly, and markets are supposed to be efficient.

如果大家都清楚这个规律，那为什么它还一直这样重复呢？

And if everybody knows this, then, you know, why does it keep doing it?

这在我看来是加密市场中最有趣的现象之一。

It is one of the most interesting things to me about the crypto markets.

我觉得如果你能从更根本的原理出发，理解推动市场的真正因素——这正是我想探讨的：到底是什么在驱动加密市场，然后看看这些因素是否正好契合了四年周期的走势。

And I do think that if you sort of understand the drivers more from, like, first principles, and that's really what I'm trying to get at is what are the drivers of the crypto markets and and focus on that and then just see if that is sort of tracking this four year path.

因为我觉得，表面上那些神秘感，其实更多是四年周期这个概念潜移默化地影响了投资者的心理，甚至是在无意识中起作用。

Because I do think the mystery that sort of gets layered on top of it is sort of just how the idea of a four year cycle sort of impacts reflexively impacts, like, investor psychology almost subconsciously.

我认为，这种神秘感正是叠加在我们所追踪的各种数据和指标之上的东西。

And I think that is maybe the mystery that gets sort of overlaid onto these metrics and things that that we're tracking.

不过我觉得现在正是深入探讨这个话题的好时机。

But I thought it was a good time just to get into this.

这是个非常重要的议题，如果你能清晰地理解并坚信它的运作机制，那对投资者来说，就像获得了一个关键的视角，能更从容地评估市场中的概率和风险。

It's a really important topic, and I think if you have a really clear view and conviction on how this works, I think it's sort of like an moment in terms of, like, as an investor, being able to kinda look at things and feeling a little bit more comfortable, like, assessing probabilities and kind of risk in the market.

今天能聊这个，我真的很期待。

So excited to get into it today.

我们今天要深入探讨一个宇宙级谜题——为什么总是出现四年周期。

Well, we're gonna dive into one of the biggest mysteries of the universe, I would say, which is why we keep getting these four year cycles.

在进入正题之前，得先感谢我们的朋友和赞助商GALAXY，特别是给正在听的机构投资者们。

Before we get in there, we gotta shout out our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY, and this is for the institutions listening.

我知道有不少机构资金每周都会关注《DeFi报告》。

I know there's a lot of institutional capital that tunes into the DeFi report on a weekly basis.

无论你是关注加密货币——这个金融的未来，还是下一场工业革命——人工智能，GALAXY都是你必须了解的名字，因为他们在这两个领域都做得非常出色。

Whether you're looking at crypto, which is the future of finance, or the next industrial revolution, which is AI, GALAXY is the name you need to know because they do both in crypto.

他们已经确立了全球领先的地位。

They've established themself as a global leader.

他们的业务涵盖机构交易、资产托管和代币化。

What they do is institutional trading, custody, and tokenization.

在人工智能方面，他们拥有庞大的数据中心，比如他们的Helios站点，装机容量高达16亿瓦。

On the AI side they have massive data centers, including their Helios site, 1.6 gigawatts of power.

这是一家上市公司，也是加密领域最顶尖的公司之一。

They are a publicly traded company, one of crypto's finest.

他们官网的股票代码是 GLXY，你也可以访问他们的网站 galaxy.com。

You can find them at g l x y, that's the ticker, and you can also go to their website, galaxy.com.

节目简介里有链接，如果你想了解 Galaxy 是如何帮助机构投资、建设和持续转型的，一定要去看看。

There's a link in the show notes if you wanna see how Galaxy helps institutions invest, build, and transform relentlessly, you need to go check them out.

感谢 Galaxy 的赞助。

Thank you to Galaxy for sponsoring.

我们来聊聊比特币现在的价格。

Let's get into the Bitcoin price right now.

录制时的价格大概是六万一千美元，过去二十四小时下跌了大约百分之二。

At the time of recording, we are at, what, 61 k and dropping down about 2% on the last twenty four hours.

我再看一下七天的走势，毕竟有一阵子没看了——哦，七天下来跌了百分之六。

Let me just look at the seven day because it's been a little bit since oh, down 6% on the seven day.

明白了。

Okay.

所以今天报告的核心问题是：抛开一天和七天的波动，为什么比特币始终遵循四年周期？

So the question of today's report is zooming out much more than the one day and the seven day, which is why does Bitcoin continue to track the four year cycle?

迈克，你能从最高层面告诉我们，现在推动市场的关键因素是什么吗？

Can you tell us at the highest level, Mike, what are the drivers here?

在回答‘为什么’这个问题时，你心里最关注的是哪些方面？

What are the key things in your mind as like, to answer the question of of why?

我觉得最重要的一点，也是我们从这张图开始看的，就是比特币的资本基础——我们也可以用同样的方式评估其他大型资产。

I think the the key thing that I like to kind of look at and and we kind of start with this this first chart here is when you think about sort of the the I call it the capital base of Bitcoin, for example, we can we can sort of assess the capital base of other large assets as well.

但就比特币而言，它的资本基础其实就是已实现市值。

But focusing on Bitcoin here, the capital base is essentially the realized cap.

也就是所有投入比特币网络的总资金。

So the total money that's been invested into into the Bitcoin network.

这基本上就是你的资本基础。

So that's kind of your capital base.

在我看来，市场在熊市期间往往会回归到这个水平。

And to me, that is, like, where I tend to think that the market valuation will trade to during during bear markets.

而在牛市中，市场价格通常会脱离这个资本基础，大幅上涨。

And during the bull market, what tends to happen is the the market value will detach, you know, on the upside from that capital base.

这其实就是杠杆、信贷、市场心理、反身性、投机等因素的结合体，也就是我们今天会讨论的那些在牛市里起作用的要素，正是这些因素造就了溢价。

And that is essentially a combination of leverage, credit, market psychology, reflexivity, speculation, like, all of the things that we're gonna talk about today that come into play during bull markets, and that is what creates that that premium.

当市场涨到顶部时，通常会形成某种特定的结构，让我觉得该说声‘好吧’。

And when you get to the top of the market, it tends to there's there's a certain structure that forms that will will sort of cause me to say, okay.

这意味着概率开始发生转变，风险也在增加。

This the probabilities are starting to shift and risk is increasing.

这其中很大一部分取决于系统里的杠杆规模与稳健的现货买入量之间的对比，以及当前价格相对于那个资本基础的位置。

And a lot of that has to do with the amount of leverage in the system versus the amount of kind of durable spot buying and where you're at in relation to that capital base.

所以这就是我看待这些驱动因素的方式。

So that's kinda how I think of the levers.

我们会逐一讲解，但核心其实在于稳定币。

We're gonna get through all of them, but it's it's really about stablecoins.

其次是去中心化金融里的贷款需求。

It's about, you know, demand for for loans in DeFi.

还有衍生品市场，特别是永续合约市场的表现。

It's about the derivatives markets and what we see with the Perps markets.

还有其他方式让杠杆进入系统，比如数字资产金库、基差交易、做市商融资等。

There's other ways of, like, that leverage comes into the system with, like, digital asset treasuries, with basis trades, market maker financing.

这些都是影响市场流动性的因素，而流动性又会反过来影响心理、投机等其他方面。

Like, these are all things that are impacting the liquidity of the markets, which has a reflexive move on psychology, speculation, all these other things.

所以，是的，我很期待接下来深入探讨这些内容。

So, yeah, excited to get into it.

太好了。

That's great.

好的。

Alright.

那我们来确认一下，理解你理论的基础，也就是为什么会出现这些周期。

So let's make sure we understand the foundation here of of your thesis and and theory of why we get these cycles.

你提到了资金基数这个概念，从图表上看，这个基数大约是1万亿美元。

So you have this idea of capital base, and we're seeing that in the chart, is one about $1,000,000,000,000.

对吧？

Right?

粗略算的话，大概是1.1万亿美元，这个资本基础其实就是实现价格，我们待会儿再细说。

Round it up to maybe 1,100,000,000,000 And that effectively, the capital base is realized price, which we'll come back to.

明白吗？

Okay?

你说的这个资本基础——也就是实现价格和实际成本——跟比特币曾经达到25000亿美元的市值之间，差距很大。这部分差距主要来自杠杆和信贷，当时峰值时溢价达到了2.3倍。

And you're saying the difference between that capital base that we've we we have is realized realized price, realized cost, and the value that we saw where Bitcoin went to $2,500,000,000,000, a lot of that difference, the bulk of that difference is a and that was a 2.3 x premium at the cycle peak, that was leverage, and that was credit.

你觉得这才是最关键的驱动因素。

You think that's a massive driver.

现在市场已经进入调整期九个月了，那个溢价基本消失了，但紫色柱子还是比蓝色的资本基础柱子高。

Now we are nine months into the spare market, and that premium has pretty much eliminated, but it's still the the purple bar is still above the capital base blue bar.

资本基础的蓝色柱子其实没怎么变，还是大约1.1万亿美元。

The capital base blue bar really hasn't changed.

但比特币的估值明显大幅回落，溢价也基本没了，现在大概在1.3万亿美元左右。

It's about the same, 1,100,000,000,000, but you could see the valuation of Bitcoin obviously has massively decreased and that premium has been eliminated, so we're at 1,300,000,000,000 or so.

在之前的市场周期里，比如2018年的熊市，你说得对，比特币的估值确实跌到了资本基础以下29%，那时候紫色柱子比蓝色柱子低了近三成。

In previous markets, we have during the 1838 bear market, you're right, Bitcoin's valuation fell 29% actually below the capital base, so the purple was 29% below the blue bar here.

我们现在有19%的溢价，这就是为什么在每周的通话中，我们会把实现收益率价格当作核心指标来跟踪的原因。

Today we're at a 19 premium, so this is why this is some some of the the idea of why you track realized yield price as a core KPI when we get on these these weekly calls.

但我这里想问个问题。

But I wanna ask a question here.

我明白紫色部分代表什么。

So I understand the purple.

它就是杠杆和信贷。

It's it's leverage and credit.

这其实就是溢价的部分。

That's kind of the premium.

我们待会儿再深入聊紫色部分。

We'll get into the purple itself.

我想先确认一下我对资本基础这部分的理解对不对。

I wanna make sure I understand the capital base portion of it.

这其实就是实现价格。

So this is just realized price.

那为什么这会形成一个底部呢？特别是对比特币来说，它是一种信仰型资产。

Why would that form a floor of any Because in particular, for Bitcoin, it's a faith asset.

对吧？

Right?

我们应该把它归类为一种价值储存资产。

It's categorize that as it's a store of value asset.

明白吗？

Okay?

是的。

Yep.

所以当人们看到蓝色部分时，他们会说：‘迈克，你的意思是这是个底部，然后信贷和杠杆都建立在上面。’

So I think when people look at the blue, they say, well, okay, Mike, you're saying that's kind of like a floor and then credit and leverage is built on top.

但实际上并没有底部。

There is no floor.

它就是一种信仰型资产。

It's a faith asset.

确实是。

It is.

它是一种价值储存资产。

It's store of value.

为什么它不可能大幅跌破实际成本资本基础呢？

Like, why does it not significantly why could it not significantly go below the realized cost capital base?

你把这一点说清楚点。

Like, make that part make sense.

对。

Yeah.

换种思路来看，我们之前讨论过周期中的一些关键指标。

And and, you know, another way to think about that is, like, we've talked about, you know, a lot of the sort of high level KPIs for the cycle.

我们从未跌破过的那个指标，就是市值与实际价值之比。

The one that we have not gone below is the market value to realized value.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是另一种思考方式

So it's another way to think about

是什么呢？

Which is what?

也就是比特币的价格

Which is what what Bitcoin price gets

对我们来说意味着什么

us

那怎么理解这一点呢？

there to translate that?

大概54k就能达到那个水平。

That would be about 54 k would get us to that level.

这基本上就把整个溢价给抹平了。

That would be kind of wiping out this entire this entire premium.

不过，我觉得你说的有道理。

But, no, I think you're making a good point.

没错，比特币是一种信仰型资产。

Like, yes, Bitcoin is a faith asset.

它是一种由共识驱动的资产。

It's a memetic asset.

它不产生现金流。

It doesn't have cash flow.

它也没有你分析股票时通常会看的那些东西，比如账面价值——当你觉得一只股票被严重低估时，总能回头看看它的资产总值是不是支撑着价格。

It doesn't have the things that you would typically look for to kind of, like, give it some sort of, like, book value as, like, when you're when you're analyzing a stock and it's really undervalued, can sort of always come back to, like, okay, is it trading, like, below the value of all the assets?

所以对投资者来说，这种思路能帮助他们坚定对价值的信心。

So that's a nice way for investors to, like, have conviction about about value.

但比特币没有这些。

Bitcoin doesn't have that.

所以我们得找别的方法，来判断什么可能构成价格的底部。

So we have to find these other ways to think about what could be setting floors.

我觉得只要比特币的故事还成立，这种资本基础的概念就依然有效。

And I think as long as, like, the Bitcoin story is intact, like, sort of this sort of capital this idea of a capital base does work.

但话说回来，这确实是个不错的观点。

But, again, it's a it's a good point.

它本质上是一种信仰资产。

It's a faith asset.

当然，如果比特币被攻破，它随时可能崩盘，毕竟风险一直存在。

And so, obviously, it it it can break at any time if if Bitcoin is hacked and there's always risks out there.

但对我而言，这一直是个很好的指标，尤其是在熊市里——总有一批比特币持有者就是单纯相信它，我就是其中之一。

But for me, like, this has been, like, a a pretty good indicator of especially in bear markets, like, there is a certain holder of Bitcoin that does just have that belief, and I'm one of them.

但我觉得，这里的关键在于，你必须意识到，这确实是一种基于信念的资产。

But I think that's that's part of the story here is you you do have to, like, realize that this is this is a a belief asset.

现在我想，为什么它会是信仰资产呢？我往前看六到十二个月，琢磨货币政策和财政赤字会怎么走，结果发现，未来某个时候，对比特币的需求肯定会再次爆发，这本来就是个周期性现象。

And I think right now, like, if I'm thinking about why is it a belief asset right now, I'm looking out six, twelve months and thinking about what's going to happen with monetary policy, what's going to happen with fiscal budget deficits, and I'm seeing a picture where there's going to be a lot of demand for Bitcoin again at some point of this is very cyclical.

但在我看来，未来对比特币的需求一定会再次高涨，这其实挺明显的。

But to me, it seems sort of obvious that that there is going to be a lot of demand for Bitcoin again.

在熊市低谷时你可能感觉不到，但你必须有这种信念。

It doesn't feel like it when you're at the lows of a bear market, but that's that's the conviction I think you have to have.

是的

Yeah.

我看到报告末尾的时候，突然又明白了一点：比特币要想成功，其实只需要活下去就行。

I got to the place at the end of this report where it just dawned on me once again that in order for Bitcoin to succeed, all it has to do is survive.

因为比特币就像一块海绵，能吸收流动性，只要还有源源不断的资金流入，只要它能撑下去，稀缺性这个故事就始终成立。

Because Bitcoin acts as a sponge for liquidity, and as long as there's that that trickle of liquidity, the scarcity story of Bitcoin just absorbs it so long as it survives.

是的

Yeah.

每个四年周期似乎都是这样，只要能熬过去就行。

That seems to be what what's has to happen during each four year cycle, just has to survive.

对。

Yep.

但这里提到的1.1万亿美元，咱们再回顾一下实际成本——这差不多就是人们在比特币网络里投入的总金额了。

But this amount here, the 1,100,000,000,000, when when just to refresh us on on the realized cost there, you you almost equate it to that's how much people have invested Yep.

投入到了这个网络里。

In the network.

对。

Yep.

这怎么说得通呢？

How how does that make sense?

为什么人们会投入这么多钱？

Why is that the amount that people are investing?

你是在说机会成本吗？还是说这笔投资到底来自哪里？

Are you talking about, like, opportunity cost or, like where where does that investment piece come from?

为什么这笔资金会注入进来？

Why is that the capital injected?

并不是有一大堆投资者直接掏出一百一千亿，一次性买进了比特币。

It's not like a bunch of investors wrote a check for, you know, like, 1,100,000,000,000 and just purchased market purchased Bitcoin at some phase.

显然，有人进场早，有人进场晚。

Obviously, some got in higher, some got in lower.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我是这么想的，这本质上是随着时间逐渐锁定的资本。

The way I think of it is it's basically the the capital that's getting vested over time.

举个例子，如果你在100美元的时候买了比特币，后来以200美元卖给了别人。

So and the way that you would see that that capital base get increased, like, is if, let's say, you bought Bitcoin at a $100, you end up selling it to somebody at at $200.

对方的成本价变成了200，但因为你这笔交易，市场上实际增加了100美元的资本规模。

Their their cost basis is now 200, but you created a $100 of realized cap because of that person just increased the amount of of capital.

你投了100，下一个人投了200。

You you put in a 100, the next person put in 200.

所以资本总量就增加了100，这就是增长的来源。

So the capital base has increased by a $100, and that's kind of how you get that increase.

而当资本总量下降的时候，其实就是有人在亏本抛售，把之前投入的200美元给抹掉了。

And then, like, when capital when the capital base is dropping, what's happening is basically that that capital that was put into the market, that 200, someone's selling at a loss, and you're sort of destroying that.

所以我就是这么理解的。

And so that's kind of how I think about it.

这想法有点特别，说到底，其实就是看有多少资本进入，又有多少资本被抹掉。

It's a little, you know, it's a little funky to to think about, but it's really the, you know, kind of capital that goes in versus capital destroyed.

在这些周期里，我觉得这种视角特别有意思，能帮我们理解我所说的网络资本基础。

And, like, that to me has has served over these cycles as a pretty interesting way to kind of think about the kind of, I call it, the capital base, you know, of the network.

明白了。

Okay.

那我们来聊聊核心问题吧，就是牛市时积累起来的信贷和流动性，它们推高了市场溢价，到了熊市又会消失殆尽。

So let's then talk about the the main event here with that foundation, which is the credit and liquidity that builds and and creates this market premium during bull markets that evaporates and busts during bear markets.

这其中有几个主要的杠杆和信贷驱动因素。

And you have some primary drivers of leverage and credit.

我们一个个来过一遍，仔细想想。

We're gonna touch on each of them, think.

稳定币供应量、风投、活跃贷款和DeFi、衍生品、杠杆、永续合约、做市商融资和基差交易、矿工，还有策略性数字资产储备之类的。

Stablecoin supply, VC, active loans and DeFi, derivatives, leverage, Perps, market maker financing and basis trades, miners, and then of course, strategy, digital asset, treasuries, and the like.

那我们一个一个来分析。

So let's run through each.

这张图很有意思。

This chart is very interesting.

这是稳定币的供应量，我们可以看到整体呈上升趋势，但在2023年市场低迷期间明显下滑。

This is stablecoin supply and what we see is a kind of a trajectory up, but then certainly a dip in the amount of supply during the last 2023 market.

现在的情况是基本持平了。

And right now we're seeing sort of a it's it's flat.

增长几乎停滞了。

There's very little growth.

在2025年的熊市里，它就一直卡在这儿，没什么变动。

It's kind of, like, just, like, flattened in the bear market in 2025.

牛市期间，市场上流通的稳定币数量自然会增加。

During the bull markets, of course, the amount of stablecoins in existence increases.

我不太明白，为什么稳定币的供应量会推动比特币的信贷和杠杆。

Now it's not intuitive to me as to why stablecoin supply feeds credit and leverage for Bitcoin.

你能解释一下吗？

Can you explain that?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我这里说的主要是整个加密市场的情况。

So and and I'm referring kinda broadly to the crypto markets.

在这种情况下，我觉得稳定币供应量可能对比特币以外的市场影响更大一些。

In this case, I I would say stablecoin supply is probably impacting things outside of Bitcoin probably a little bit more.

但我对这个问题的理解是，稳定币本身并不像银行存款那样具有明显的货币乘数效应。

But I think the way I think about this is, like, you know, stablecoins don't necessarily have, like, this inherent money multiplier effect, like bank deposits do.

比如，当银行存款增加时，银行可以实际放出更多贷款，从而产生货币乘数效应，让市场流动性增加。

Like, when bank deposits increase, the banks can can actually lend out more, and so you can have this money multiplier effect and, like, more liquidity in markets.

但这种情况在加密领域并不一定成立，因为我们目前在DeFi里主要还是采用超额抵押的借贷模式。

That's not necessarily the case because we don't have like, we still have overcollateral mostly overcollateralized lending in DeFi.

不过我们确实看到，当稳定币供应量上升时，它逐渐成了结算、交易和衍生品市场中的主要抵押资产。

But what we do see is, like, when stablecoin supply is increasing, that is sort of become the collateral asset for, you know, settlement, for trading, for the derivatives markets.

而且，当你想想DeFi里那些循环套利策略时，即使这些也是超额抵押贷款，但它们确实会形成循环操作。

And so and for, you know, when you think about sort of what happens in DeFi with kind of looping strategy, even those are overcollateralized loans, there's looping strategies.

所以当稳定币供应量增加时，你实际上就获得了类似货币乘数的效果。

So you are sort of getting, like, this money multiplier when stablecoin supply does increase.

因此这一点始终值得关注。

And so that's something to always keep an eye on.

我觉得现在有趣的是，我们已经处于熊市大约九个月了，但稳定币的供应量并没有明显下降。

I think what's interesting right now is we are we've been in a bear market for about nine months or so, and the stablecoin supply hasn't really dropped.

它基本维持在原水平。

It's kind of flatlining there.

相比熊市刚开始时，它略微上升了一些，但整体还是趋于平稳。

It's up a little bit from sort of when the bear market started, but it's kind of flatlining.

上一轮熊市中，稳定币供应量曾大幅下滑，但这次可能不会出现同样的情况。

And we may not see, you know, the stablecoin supply dropped pretty significantly in the last bear market, and it's possible that it doesn't really drop.

我认为这次熊市中，稳定币供应保持稳定的主要原因，是它们在日常使用和美元获取方面的边际价值，而不仅仅是用于交易。

In this bear market, I think their primary reason for this is just kind of, like, maybe on the margin utility of stablecoins and sort of dollar access, you know, versus just being used for trading and things

就是这样。

like that.

也要行动。

Act too.

没错，这可是个巨大的推动力。

Mean, that's a huge catalyst.

我觉得在稳定币刚出现的时候，人们更多是把它当做一个过渡工具。

I think people you know, I think in the early days of stablecoins, they're kinda used more as, like, this bridge.

对吧？

Right?

就是从法币美元过渡到链上世界的一个桥梁，那时候你把风险放在稳定币里，等要避险的时候，再转出去。

This bridge from fiat dollars to the On-Chain world where then you you kinda hold your hold your risk in stablecoins, but when it's time to go risk off, you bridge out.

我觉得稳定币的精妙之处在于，它让人们对它更有信心，觉得它不只是一个过渡性资产。

And I think the genius act, the utility of stablecoins is kind of giving people more conviction that this is not like a bridge asset.

你可以直接把它当成钱来看待。

Like, you can kind of just think about it as money.

我觉得这一点正在逐渐显现。

And so I think that's playing out.

还有一点，我觉得人们有点忘了这事。

The other thing is I think people forget a little bit about this.

我们失去了两个最主流的稳定币结算系统，它们原本是7x24小时不间断运行的。

You know, we lost the the two, like, most, like, prolific systems for stablecoin settlement, twenty four seven settlement.

以前很多中心化交易所都在用这些系统。

This was something that the exchanges, you know, a lot of the centralized exchanges were tapping into.

这些系统是通过西尔弗盖特银行和签名银行运作的。

This was via Silvergate and Signature Bank.

这两家银行都在2023年破产了。

Both of those banks went bankrupt in 2023.

而作为结算基础设施的这些资产，竟然被排除在资产拍卖之外。

And then the asset that asset, that settlement infrastructure was actually excluded from the resale.

这其实是‘操作扼喉2.0’的一部分，我到现在都不确定我们有没有重新审视过这件事，反正FDIC主席在那之后也辞职了。

This was part of operation choke point two point o, which is I still I don't know if that's we've ever we've revisited this and just I think the FDIC chairman stepped down after after all this.

但说真的，这事儿挺离谱的，这些资产就这么被从市场上撤走了。

But that was, you know, kind of a crazy thing where, basically, those assets were removed from the market.

我觉得这也是2023年稳定币缩水、法币赎回激增的原因之一。

And I think that was part of the reason we saw stablecoins decline and a lot of fiat redemptions in 2023.

实际上，即使比特币在上一轮熊市后期开始反弹，稳定币的规模还在持续下降。

And, actually, stablecoins by kept dropping even as Bitcoin started to recover in the last in the last bear market.

所以挺值得观察的，我觉得稳定币的供应量可能不会再跌了，但我更关注的是它会不会回升，从而重新注入流动性，带动一些货币乘数效应。

So it'll be interesting to see you know, I think we may not see stablecoins supply drop, but what I'm really looking for is an increase in stablecoin supply to kinda bring liquidity back in, maybe get some of that money multiplier effect.

也许明年某个时候，这种情况会真正重新启动。

You know, maybe sometime next year, we start to see this really kick into gear again.

也许等到《清晰法案》顺利通过之后，情况就会有变化，希望如此。

Maybe after the, you know, the Clarity Act, you know, makes its way through, hopefully.

不过，这确实是个值得关注的点，尤其是关于整体流动性状况，以及稳定币供应回升之后会带来什么变化。

But, yeah, this is definitely something to keep an eye on in terms of just, like, overall liquidity conditions and what comes after after stablecoin supply increases.

那风险投资资本呢？

How about VC capital?

这里有一张图清楚地显示了一个趋势，虽然也是四年周期的体现，但方式不一样——牛市时我们大举投资，熊市时就大幅撤资。

So here's a chart clearly showing a kind of a trend line that, again, matches the four year cycle, but in sort of a different way where we invest much more during the bull market and then pull back during the bear market.

现在确实出现了回撤。

We're seeing a a pullback now.

这算是一种信贷和杠杆吗？

This is a form of of credit and leverage?

可以这么说。

It can be.

我的看法是，大部分进入加密市场的风投资金，其实都是在牛市期间投入和使用的。

So the way I think about this is, you know, most of the venture capital that comes into the crypto markets that is invested and deployed happens during during bull markets.

所以通常的情况是，拿到这些资金的公司都会低调行事。

And so what tends to happen is the companies that receive that capital to do so somewhat quietly.

对吧？

Right?

没人知道他们拿到了融资，但他们趁着牛市默默发展，等到熊市时再准备推出产品、做市场推广——这通常发生在市场复苏初期，也可能更晚一些。

Nobody really knows about this or they're getting funded, and they start to build in the in the bull market and then continue to do so into the bear market when they're ready to kind of come to market and launch their products and do some marketing, you know, typically that's kind of early in the expansion phase or it can be.

很多公司还在搞激励计划、空投之类的活动，吸引用户来试用他们的产品。

A lot of them are running incentive programs, airdrops, things like this to get users to come, you know, test out their products.

如果你仔细想想那边发生的事，这本质上还是风险投资支持的。

And that is venture capital funded if you really think about what's going on there.

所以比特币正在把这部分资金注入市场。

So the BTC's are kinda putting that into the market.

如果项目够大、成功，而且空投的规模也够大，这确实能带来财富效应。

This can be like this can create a wealth effect, you know, if it's a large enough project, a successful project with a large enough airdrop.

我们在过去的熊市里已经见过这种情况了。

We have seen this in past bear markets.

回头看看上一轮熊市结束时，Solana其实是在2023年第四季度才真正爆发的，而真正点燃这一切的是Gido的空投，带来了明显的财富效应。

If you just go back to the last we're coming out of the last bear market, really, Solana started to really kick into gear in q four of twenty three, and it was really the Gido airdrop that created a wealth effect and kicked that off.

这会把用户吸引到链上，进而可能推高借贷需求，形成一种自我强化的循环。

So that brings users on chain then it can, you know, create more demand for loans, and you kinda get the reflexive thing coming off of that.

所以我觉得这一点值得留意。

So I think that's something to pay attention to.

上一轮熊市里，差不多一年后，我们同样看到了Hype带来的类似效应。

We saw that with hype as well about a year later in the last bear market.

你说，接下来会是哪个项目上线呢？

You know, what is the project that's going to come to market?

这种事情真的很难预测。

It's always hard to predict these things.

我最近一直在关注Pump这个项目。

I've sort of got my eye on pump.

他们预留了25%的代币用于空投，你可以想象，如果Pump真的放出这批代币，可能会再次吸引用户上链，从而带动Solana生态重新活跃起来。

They've got 25% of their supply reserved for an airdrop, and you could imagine a scenario where pump, you know, really you know, put either either floats out that they're gonna be releasing that, and it brings people on chain again, and it starts to kick up kick things off on the in the Solana ecosystem.

我能想象这种场景，作为投资者，值得留意的是：这些空投发生在哪些生态里，之后会带来什么样的财富效应，以及对DeFi等领域产生什么影响。

I could see I could envision that type of scenario, But just something generally to kind of keep an eye on as an investor is, like, these airdrops, which ecosystems are they happening in, and then the wealth effects and what happens in DeFi and things like that thereafter.

所以，清晰的逻辑是：风投在牛市期间投入，但真正的建设发生在熊市。

So the clean link is VC investment happens during bull market, but the building happens during the bear market.

而在熊市的某个阶段，你会开始看到一些早期的进展，逐渐转化为代币财富。

And sometime in the bear market, you start to get some early forms of track traction that converts into token wealth.

一旦有了代币财富，整个循环就真正启动了，推动后续的整个周期。

Once you have token wealth, you're off to the races because that propels, you know, the the the rest of the cycle.

对。

Yep.

我们来聊聊DeFi里的活跃贷款吧。

Let's talk about active loans in DeFi.

这张图很清楚地显示，牛市期间贷款数量上升。

This is a a very clean chart showing loans go up during the bull market.

熊市期间贷款数量则下降。

Loans go down during the bear market.

这明显是链上的信用活动。

And this is very clearly on chain credit.

我说的就是DeFi，那种有抵押支持的贷款类型。

I mean, it's literally DeFi, collateral backed DeFi type loans.

说说这张图，你看到了什么？

Talk about this graph and what you're seeing.

是的。

Yeah.

这是活跃贷款的数据。

So this is active loans.

这里只显示以太坊生态系统的数据，主要涵盖了前四大平台。

This is Ethereum ecosystem only, and we've just got kind of the the top the top four in there.

分别是 Aave、Morpho、Spark 和 Compound。

So we've got Aave, Morpho, Spark, and and Compound.

可以看到，上一轮牛市期间，活跃贷款达到了一个新的高点，这很不错。

And what we can see is, like, you know, active loans, you know, hit a hit a higher high in this last bull market, which is great.

上一轮熊市时，活跃贷款总量下降了大约百分之八十五。

In the last bear market, we dropped about 85% in terms of the the amount of active loans out there.

目前我们又回落了大约百分之五十七。

We're down about 57% right now.

所以确实从高点大幅回落了。

So so definitely you have come off significantly.

说到活跃贷款以及它为什么会这样变化，让我想到传统金融里贷款需求的走势，有点类似。

And, you know, the way I think about just active loans and and, you know, how this kicked off, it kinda reminds me a little bit of what you see in traditional, you know, traditional finance with with the demand for loans.

通常来说，得先有其他事情把用户吸引到链上。

So there's typically other things that happen first that bring users on chain.

比如投机行为、市场波动、价格上涨，或者空投，还有稳定币供应量增加之类的。

So it could be, you know, speculation, markets, you know, prices are going up, airdrops, you know, stablecoin supply is increasing.

这些事情都在发生。

These things are happening.

它们先把用户拉到链上，然后对资金的需求才会跟着起来。

They tend to bring users on chain, and then the demand for capital kicks on.

很多去中心化金融协议都会推出激励计划，提高收益率来吸引资金。

A lot of DeFi protocols will run incentive programs to boost yields and attract capital.

这就像银行在市场需求旺盛时，放宽了贷款标准一样。

And that's sort of like a bank, you know, lowering its lending standards to when there's lots of demand in the market.

所以两者看起来挺相似的。

So it kind of has a similar look to it.

我们通常看到，市场一活跃起来，这种情况就会出现。

And we tend to see this, you know, as as the markets kind of kick into gear.

现在呢，虽然大多数贷款还是超额抵押的，但在像Aave这样的平台上，通过反复借贷之类的方式，还是会产生一定的资金乘数效应。

This is now, you know, somewhat you most of these loans are overcollateralized still, but there is a money multiplier effect that can happen via looping and stuff on platforms like Aave.

这点值得留意。

So something to keep an eye on.

我们现在已经下跌了57%。

We're down 57%.

等看到用户真正大规模回归链上时，我们期待这一趋势能反弹回来。

We'll be looking for this to rebound at some point once we see users, like, really coming back on chain.

我看着这张图，再听你刚才说的，不由得想起我们这期节目开头讲的那句话——别逆着周期操作。

You know, I I kinda when I look at this graph and what you just said, I I do think back to what we started this episode with, which is don't fade the cycle.

这张图上，价格变动之后总会跟上各种其他叙事。

There are all sorts of other narratives that follow price in this graph.

现在的一个说法是，这条线下跌、活跃贷款减少，是因为黑客攻击、AI、朝鲜、各种都市传说，这些因素都让人把抵押品从链上借贷中撤走了。

So a narrative right now, you'll say you'll see the reason this line is down and active loans have, you know, gone down is because hacks, AI, North Korea, mythos, all of these things that are causing people to remove collateral from on chain lending.

对。

Yeah.

但这只是一个说法而已。

But like, that's just a narrative.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果从四年周期的角度来看，本来就会是这样的走势。

Like, if you look at the the the from the lens of a four year cycle, it was bound to play out that way.

不管朝鲜搞什么黑客攻击，它迟早都会跌，总会另有原因的。

Like, it doesn't matter what North Korea is doing with hacking, it was always going to go down and there would have been another reason for it.

是的。

Yeah.

这大概就是四年周期的极端观点吧，但你确实能在这里看得很清楚。

That's kind of the the maximalist view, I guess, of the four year cycle, but you can really see it here.

现在我们来聊聊衍生品杠杆，因为这一直是推动因素之一。

Now let's talk about derivatives leverage because that has been a growing driver.

当然，永续合约的规模已经很大了。

Of course, perps are huge.

我们现在看到的是什么？

What are we seeing?

对。

Yeah.

我们最近的报告里提到过，大部分泡沫已经消退了，尤其是大型交易所这边。

So, you know, something we've been covering in in recent reports, we think most of the air has come out, especially of the majors.

这张图显示的是比特币期货和永续合约市场的未平仓合约量。

This chart is looking at Bitcoin futures open and interest in the perpetual markets.

相比周期高点，现在已经下降了大约52%。

It's down about 52% from the peak of the cycle.

上一轮熊市时，我们触底时也跌了差不多55%。

In the last bear market, we were down about 55%, you know, when when we bottomed.

上一轮周期里永续合约规模小得多，所以可能还有一点点空间要挤。

Perps were much smaller in the last cycle, so, you know, maybe there's a little bit more air to come out here.

但总体来看，大部分泡沫已经出得差不多了。

But I think, generally speaking, most of the air has come out.

我觉得，推动这一轮永续合约资金的主要因素其实是债务，这个我们待会儿会讲到。

I think, you know, the thing that drove a lot of the perps sort of funding the this cycle where the debts, which we'll get to here.

但我觉得实际情况是，出现了不少为比特币融资的债务。

But I think what what happened is you have, like, these quite a few debts that came out for Bitcoin.

而且在以太坊和其他山寨币上，也能看到类似的情况，只是持续时间更长。

Also, saw it on a longer tail of of, you know, ETH and and other altcoins.

这是一种不看价格、只管现货买入的买家。

That is like a, you know, price agnostic buyer that just comes in and just spot spot buy.

所以如果你是个交易员，想加杠杆，那正是时候，因为你背后有人在不断买入，给你托盘。

So if you're a if you're a trader and you wanna put on leverage, like, that was the time to do it because you know you have somebody behind you that's just, you know, basically boosting

你之前说过，去年夏天他打算买进5%。

you and my said he was gonna buy 5% last summer.

对吧？

Right?

那就趁机开一些永续合约吧。

Like, put some perps on that.

你下面直接就是涡轮引擎，你知道的。

You got the turbojets, you know, right underneath you.

所以那段时间特别值得观察，那时候未平仓合约真的猛增了。

And so that was, like, very interesting to watch, and that's when, you know, open interest, you know, really spiked.

回头来看，那些债务其实已经很明显了，当时就该看出来。

And once sort of a lot of that debt like, like, this was kind of in hindsight, it was kind of easy to see it.

但实际情况是，未平仓合约突然飙升，之后就能看出那些债务方基本不再买入了。

But what happened was you just had this spike in open interest, and then you could see that the the the the debts were basically done buying.

所以上一轮高点时，整个局面就像一座纸牌屋。

And so that was sort of a house of cards set up at the peak of the last cycle.

我不确定我们会不会再看到类似的情况，但这件事值得留意。

So I don't know if we're gonna see something like this, you know, again, but something to pay attention to.

而且，目前来看，主流币的势头基本已经泄了。

And, again, we think the air is mostly out of the the majors right now.

既然我们聊到了DATs，不如顺便说说它作为驱动因素的作用。

Maybe while we're talking about DATs, let's touch on that as a driver.

DATs 当然会购买比特币。

So DATs, of course, they purchase Bitcoin.

有些机构是用某种形式的杠杆在买，不管迈克尔·赛勒怎么称呼它——是杠杆还是保证金，本质上就是这么回事，至少有一点杠杆。

Some of them are doing so on some form of leverage, whether Saylor calls it leverage or margin or not, that's what it is, at least a little bit.

我们来聊聊这个作为驱动因素的情况。

Talk about that as a driver.

对。

Yeah.

如果我们只聚焦在这个例子中的策略，他们实际上利用了比特币的波动性，通过可转债在市场上融到了资金。

So, you know, I think if we just kinda focus on strategy in this in this example, what they've been able to do is, you know, use the volatility of of Bitcoin to go out, raise capital via convertible debt in the market.

早期赛勒主要就是用这个策略——发行零利率的可转债，拿到钱之后直接去买比特币。

So that was kind of the strategy that that Sailor was doing early on, mostly, you know, convertible debt, 0% interest, and able to take that capital, go in and buy Bitcoin.

这跟你在永续合约市场里那种直接加杠杆的方式不一样，而是利用公众对比特币的需求，把这种需求转化成债务，再用这笔钱去买比特币。

So you're not actually, like, levering up Bitcoin in in the way that you're doing it with Perps markets, things like that, but you're just taking, you know, demand for access to Bitcoin from the public markets, you know, converting that into debt and then buying Bitcoin with it.

所以，这其实是另一种形式的杠杆。

So that is, you know, another form of leverage.