莫尼什·帕布拉伊（亿万富翁投资人）：正在迅速消失的100美元投资秘诀！通往财务自由的最快途径！

为什么他们称你为丹杜投资者？

Why do they call you the Dandoo investor?

这是一种无需承担风险就能做生意和赚钱的方式。比如，盖茨先生、沃尔顿先生、布兰森先生，这些人都遵循着简单的思维模式。所以如果他们赢了，就会大赚；如果输了，也毫无损失。

It's a way of doing business and making money without taking risk. Like, for example, mister Gates, mister Walton, mister Branson, all of these people follow these simple mental models. So if they won, they would win big. And if they lost, they'd lose nothing.

所以我想了解全部细节。

So I wanna know everything.

好的，我们从这里开始。

Okay. Let's start with this.

马尼什·帕布拉伊是白手起家的百万富翁，他创立了全球最受尊敬的投资公司之一，管理着超过十亿美元资产。现在他正为我们提供改变人生的财富创造工具与框架。

Manish Pabrai is the self made millionaire who built one of the most respected investment firms in the world, managing over a billion dollars. And now he's giving us the simple tools and frameworks to create life changing wealth.

如果人们明白，以接近零风险的模式创业，更多人就会尝试。这正是这种思维模式的作用。比如克隆策略——我们总被教导创业需要创新，但实际上，擅长克隆的人已经超越了90%的竞争者。

If humans understood that if I embark on a business in a format where the risk is close to zero, more people would do it. And that's what this mental model do. For example, cloning. We are taught if you wanna start a business, you need to come up with something new. But actually, if you are a great cloner, you will be 90% ahead of the rest of humanity.

事实上微软所有成功都源于对外部创意的复制。再说时间管理：创业时别急着辞职，让他人替你支付房租。但你需要挤出时间经营事业，我会展示完美的时间分配法——这还不是全部。

And in fact, everything that Microsoft has done well has come from copying someone on the outside. And then there's time. When you're starting a business, don't quit the day job because some other yo yo is paying your rent. But it does mean that you need to find time to work on your business. But I will show you the perfect way to allocate your time, and that's not all.

还有低垂果实、利益绑定、施与者vs索取者、能力圈等模型，我会逐一详解。

There's models like low hanging fruit, skin in the game, givers versus takers, and the circle of competence. And I'll I'll explain all of them.

投资方面呢？你作为杰出投资者可是赫赫有名。

What about investing? Because you're very well known for being an excellent investor.

投资有三要素，还有72法则——真希望中学就多教这个，它能计算本金翻倍所需时间。这才叫激动人心。

There are three things that matter with investing, and there's also something known as the rule of 72. But I wish they would teach it more in high school, and it tells us how long it takes money to double. Now this is exciting.

请给我三十秒时间。我想说两件事。首先，衷心感谢你们每周收听我们的节目，这对我们所有人来说意义重大。能走到今天这一步，是我们从未敢想也想象不到的梦想。但其次，我们感觉这个梦想才刚刚开始。

Just give me thirty seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started.

如果你喜欢我们的节目，请加入那24%定期收听本播客的听众行列，在这个应用上关注我们。我向你承诺：我将竭尽所能让这个节目现在和未来都做到最好。我们会邀请你想听的嘉宾，继续呈现你喜爱的节目内容。谢谢。

And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to, and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show. Thank you.

莫汉尼什·帕布拉伊，鉴于你的工作领域以及近期职业生涯中进行的公众教育工作，你想传递的核心信息是什么？如果要总结这个信息？具体又是想传递给哪些人群？

Mohanish Pabrai, with the work that you do and the sort of public educating that you've done more recently in your career, what is the message you're trying to convey? If had to summarize that message? And exactly who are you trying to convey it to?

这取决于具体信息。过去几十年我总结出几种不同的思维模型。当你清晰理解这些模型，尤其是能叠加运用时，就会产生一加一等于十一的效果。这些思维模型并不属于同一方向或类型。

It really depends on what message. There are a few different mental models that I've figured out over the last few decades. When you have kind of clarity on these mental models, and especially when you can start overlaying them, that's when you get one plus one becomes 11. And so these mental models are not all in the same direction or in the same genre.

请稍停一下。所谓思维模型本质上就是思考框架。没错。比如克隆理念就是其中一种思考框架。

So just to pause there for a second. So the word mental models means it's basically a framework for thinking. Yes. So one framework for thinking is this idea of cloning as one such example.

是的。以克隆这个思维模型为例。克隆，对吧？传统教育告诉我们创业必须创新，要做前人未做之事。

Yes. Let's take the mental model of cloning. Cloning. Cloning, right? So what we are taught is that if you want to start a business, you need to come up with something new, something that hasn't been done before.

但现实是世界完全可以接受三五个同类事物存在。通常，观察现有事物并思考'能否再复制一个'或'稍加改良'反而是优势。人类心理有种奇特现象——或许源于祖先进化史——我们对克隆抱有轻视。但你看，人类史上最伟大的克隆者当属比尔·盖茨和山姆·沃尔顿。

But the reality is that the world will very easily accept three of the same thing or five of the same thing. And usually, it is an advantage to look at something that already exists and say, can another one of those exist, for example? Or can I take what's there and tweak it a little bit? So there's something peculiar in the human psyche, maybe going back into our history and our ancestral evolution, where humans look down upon cloning. But if you look at it, so for example, two of the greatest cloners, I think, in human history were Bill Gates and Sam Walton.

如今我们认为比尔·盖茨是创新者，山姆·沃尔顿创建了沃尔玛也是新事物。但实际上他们都是模仿模式。微软若非卓越的克隆者就不会存在。比如Microsoft Word源自WordPerfect。

Now, we think of Bill Gates as an innovator. And we think Sam Walton created Walmart, which was also new. But actually, they're both Me Too models. And Microsoft would not have existed without being a great cloner. So when we look at Microsoft Word, it came from WordPerfect.

那是一家竞争公司。

Which was a company company.

被他击败的竞争对手。Excel源自Lotus，Bing源自Google。你知道Bing，但它不是Google。微软所有成功产品都来自对外部产品的复制。

Which a competitor that he took out. We look at Excel, it came from Lotus. We look at Bing, came from Google. And you know what Bing is, but it's not Google. Everything that Microsoft has done well at has come from copying someone on the outside.

当我们审视山姆·沃尔顿时——要知道，沃尔顿家族若将所有成员财富汇总，便是全球最富有的家族。他们比埃隆·马斯克等所有人都更富有。而山姆·沃尔顿本人也坦言，他没有任何原创想法。最初，沃尔玛就是模仿西尔斯和凯马特起家的。

And when we look at Sam Walton, who was, you know, the Walton family, if you pull them all together, it's the richest family in the world. It's richer than Elon and everyone. And Sam Walton, by his own admission, would tell you that he has no original ideas. So originally, Walmart cloned Sears and Kmart.

为我的国际听众说明一下，这是两家大型连锁超市。

For my international listeners, these are two big supermarket chains.

没错。如今这两家都已消失——事实上是被沃尔玛彻底击败的。山姆·沃尔顿堪称史上最狂热的商业模式模仿者。比如全家度假途中经过零售店时，他会让家人留在车里，自己进店考察。

Yeah. And they're both gone. They've they've and in fact, Walmart buried them. And and Sam Walton was one of the most intense cloners ever. So if he was driving on vacation with his family and he's passing some retail store, he would tell his family to stay in the car and he would go in the store just to check it out.

他曾说，古今未来都找不出比他考察过更多零售店的人。有次他带着经理巡店——零售业是最透明的行业，进竞争对手店里十分钟就能摸清整套商业模式，根本无需交谈。

And he said that there is there is no human who has lived in history or will live in the future who has visited more retail stores than he has. One time, there was a manager of his and he would go in with his managers to these stores. Retail is one of the most transparent businesses. You can go into your competitor store and you'll figure out the entire business model in ten minutes. You don't need to talk to them.

明白吗？这很妙。有次他进店考察时，随行经理评价道：'这运营太糟糕了'——整个店铺乱七八糟，确实很差劲。

Okay? It's beautiful. So he went into this retail store and the manager says to him, oh, what a terrible operation. The whole store was topsy-turvy. It was really bad.

山姆对他说，是啊，但你看到那个蜡烛展示了吗？那个蜡烛展示太棒了。所以山姆觉得他能向任何人学习。无论你是个无用的操作员、优秀的操作员还是介于两者之间的人。沃尔玛其实就是从其他地方汇集而来的各种想法的集合体。

And Sam says to him, yeah, but did you see the candle display? The candle display was fantastic. So Sam felt that he could learn from anyone. It didn't matter if you were a useless operator or a great operator or whatever, anyone in the middle. Walmart is just an amalgamation of ideas from other places.

如果我们看看像星巴克这样的公司，我们会认为星巴克很有创新性。但实际上，霍华德·舒尔茨所做的是他在意大利看到了一个概念。他的想法是，我认为这在美国也能行得通，对吧？于是他复制了这个来自意大利的创意，将那种咖啡店体验带到了美国。

If we look at if you look at a company like Starbucks, we think of Starbucks as innovative. But actually what Howard Schultz did is he saw a concept in Italy. And his idea was that I think this is work in The US. Right? And so he cloned he cloned that idea from Italy and brought that coffee shop experience to The US.

如果你是个优秀的模仿者，你将领先于90%甚至95%的人。现在，另一个思维模型。人们普遍认为创业是有风险的。实际上，创业者并不冒险。他们会竭尽全力将风险降到最低。

If you are a great cloner, you will be 90% ahead or 95% of the rest of humanity. Now, another mental model. Humans have this perspective that starting a business is risky. In reality, entrepreneurs do not take risk. They do everything in their power to minimize risk.

在许多情况下，当他们开始创业时，风险几乎为零。真正极具风险的是朝九晚五的工作，因为我们只有一次生命，对吧？而生命转瞬即逝。你可能无法去做内心真正想做的事。

And in many cases, when they embark on a business, the risk approach is zero. What is extremely risky is a nine to five job Because we have one life. Right? And it goes away. And you may not get to do what's in your heart.

你可能无法让自己的音乐被世人听到，对吧？所以让我们的音乐被听到非常重要。因此，这种认为创业者就是在冒险的观念，实际上对大多数人造成了很大的误导。如果人们明白，如果我创业，我可以选择一种风险为零或接近零的模式，并且可以复制现有的生意。

You may not get your music out. Right? And so getting our music out is really important. So so this notion, is drilled into us, that if you're an entrepreneur, you're taking risk, really kind of does a big disservice to most humans. And if humans understood that if I embark on a business, I can do it in a format where the risk is zero or close to zero, and I can clone an existing business.

对吧？现在你已经结合了两种思维模型。我们可以开始往里面添加更多内容。但二已经变成了十一，一加一早已等于十一。

Right? Now you've combined two mental models. And we can start adding more to them. But two has become 11. One plus one has already become 11.

这是非线性的。为什么我说企业家不承担风险？以我自己为例——我能举出上百个类似案例——我当时在一家公司朝九晚五工作，同时有个创业想法。雇主期望我每周工作四十小时。

It's nonlinear. And why is it that why am I saying that entrepreneurs do not take risk? So if I take my own case as an example, and I can give you a 100 cases like that. But if I take my own case as an example, I was working nine to five at a company and I had a business idea. My employer expected me to work forty hours a week.

明白吗？一周有一百六十八个小时。我觉得至少还能再挤出三四十小时来搞我的创业项目。

Right? There's one hundred and sixty eight hours in the week. So I felt like there must be at least another thirty, forty hours that I could work on my startup.

能结合上下文说明一下吗

Could you show me this in context

比如我们看整周时间安排，就像这些排列精美的乐高积木。如果取其中一块——每块积木代表两小时，即每天八小时。我们每天睡八小时对吧？

of So if we look at our whole week, for example, these beautifully arranged Legos. If I take one of these blocks of Legos, so each one of those blocks in there is two hours. So eight hours a day. We are sleeping eight hours a day. Right?

每周七天都如此。也就是说每周七天，每天八小时在睡觉。蓝色积木代表每周四十小时工作，每天八小时，每周五天。

And we're doing that seven days a week. Right? So basically, we've got seven days a week, eight hours a day we are sleeping. The blue Legos are showing our forty hours a week. Eight hours a day, five days a week we're working.

然后还有做饭、洗澡、刮胡子、准备等事项。工作日每天约四小时（含通勤），周末每天约八小时。剩下的自由时间——刷社交媒体、看网飞、朋友聚会、外出晚餐——这部分时间相当充裕。

Right? Then we get to other, you know, preparing dinner and showering, shaving, getting ready, whatever else. So that's about four hours a day on the weekdays, which is including commute time, and about eight hours a day on the weekend. Then we get to free time, you know, social media and watching Netflix and hanging out with friends, going for dinner. And we've got quite a bit.

工作日每天约四小时自由时间，周末每天八小时。这就是多数人的典型一周安排。嗯哼。创业的关键在于不要切断现金流。

We've got about four hours a day of doing that and about eight hours a day on the weekends. So this is kind of typical, what a typical week for most people would look like. Right? Mhmm. Now when you're starting a business, the important thing is don't shut off the cash flow.

总得有个冤大头替你付房租，再有个冤大头负责你的伙食费。所以我们不想打破现状，但要对蓝色部分做个调整。

Some other yo yo is paying your rent, And some other yo yo is paying your groceries. So we don't want to rock the boat. But we're going to make one change to blue.

就是调整我的工作时长对吧，现在我朝九晚...

Which is the amount of hours I'm working for Now, my nine to

在我创业之前，作为员工时我总是获得最高评价。那时我全身心投入为雇主做好工作，全力以赴对吧？但当我决定要创业的那天起，我就告诉自己只需保持不被解雇的水平即可。我的工作表现只要刚好达标不被开除就行，绝不再多费一分力气。

before I started my startup, I used to get top reviews as an employee. I was very focused on doing a great job for my employer. All in, right? The day I decided I'm going to do my startup, I decided I need to be just above firing level. My performance needs to be just good enough so they don't can me, but nothing beyond that.

因为我需要把所有精力都投入到创业中。所以唯一要调整的就是保留基础工作，但不再像从前那样超额完成。明白吗？

Because I need all my energy to go into my startup. So that's the only tweak I'm making is the blue stays, but we are not doing extra blues like we were doing before. Right?

我相信对于正在收听音频而看不见画面的听众来说，这就是工作的真谛。

And I believe for anybody that doesn't can't see because you're listening on audio is work.

完全正确。蓝色代表工作。确实如此。当我们开始创业时，永远不该为了赚钱而创业。

Exactly. Yeah. Blue is work. Exactly. Now, when we embark on a startup, we should never do a startup to make money.

这是创业最糟糕的理由。商业的目的不是赚钱，而是为人类提供卓越的产品或服务。如果你做到了这点，金钱自然随之而来。

It's the worst reason to start a company. The purpose of business is not to make money. The purpose of business is to deliver an incredible product or service to humanity. If you do that, the money is a side effect. It'll happen.

我们不需要刻意追求金钱。我们要寻找的是：是否有一个能改善世界的产品或服务构想，值得我们将其带入这个世界。

We don't need to focus on it. So what we are looking for is, do we have a product or a service that we are thinking about that we could bring into this world that is going to improve the world in some way.

怎么判断这是不是个好主意？

How do I know if it's a good idea?

你想到的任何点子都不会成功。知道为什么吗？因为这些想法都诞生于你脑海的象牙塔里。那可不是孕育好点子的地方。

Whatever idea you have come up with is not going to work. Okay? Because you came up with it in an ivory tower between your years. Okay? And that's not really a great place to find great ideas.

我们要做的是快速原型验证——把这个构想展示给真实用户。当人们看到它时，自然会给出反馈。我用更实际的例子说明：我初次创业想做IT服务，就是信息技术服务。

What's gonna happen is we are going to be doing what I call rapid prototyping, which is we take this idea and show humans what it is. And when you show it to humans, you will get feedback. So I'll I'll I'll maybe I'll just give it in more practical terms. When I was starting my first business, it was going to be an IT services business. Okay, information technology services.

我计划为营收或现金流超十亿美元的大企业提供服务。有次在芝加哥与某大型银行的IT高管开会，我正用PPT演示方案。讲到第10张幻灯片时，我按流程解说后翻到第11页，这时在座的老板突然说：'翻回第10页'。

And I was going to be providing these services to very large businesses, companies that are billion dollars or more in earnings or cash flows. I was in a meeting with a senior IT guy at a very large bank in Chicago. And I was going through my PowerPoint deck with them. I came to the tenth slide, said my spiel, went to slide 11. So the boss who was sitting in the meeting said, go back to slide 10.

于是我回到第10张幻灯片，再次复述了针对该页的演讲内容并延伸至第11页。他说：『回到第10页，不要换幻灯片。我对其他内容没兴趣。明白吗？』于是我又切回了第10页。

So I went back to slide 10, again gave my speech that I had for slide 10 and took it to 11. He said, Go back to slide 10 and do not change the slide. I don't have an interest in any other slide. Okay? So I took it back to slide 10.

他只想讨论第10页的内容。我的演示文稿原本列举了七项可行方案，第10页只是其中之一。但对他而言这是极度痛点——他只需要这个具体问题的解决方案。

And all he wanted to talk about was what was on slide 10. My deck was talking about seven things we could do. Slide 10 was one of those seven. It was an extreme pain point for him. He needed help on that one thing.

我提到的其他杂七杂八的内容他根本不需要。所以创业时必须保持敏锐的倾听——客户或潜在客户会明确指出你该做什么。你构想的方案可能只有80%、70%甚至40%正确性，但客户会告诉你什么是100%正确的方向。

He didn't need help on all the other riffraff stuff I was talking about. So when you're doing a startup, you have to be listening very carefully. Your customers or potential customers will tell you exactly what you need to do. Whatever you came up with, maybe 80% right or 70% right or 40% right. But your customer will tell you what is 100% right.

明白吗？因为那是真正的痛点。我回去深思后意识到，他那个痛点（从会议结束时他直接给我采购订单就能看出其严重性）将会是许多人的共同痛点。所以我重新调整了方向。

Okay? Because that's a real pain point. So I went back and thought about it. And I realized that his pain point, and I could see it was a severe pain point because he gave me a purchase order at the end of that meeting, was going to be a pain point for a lot of people. So I went back.

我把第10页内容扩展成20页幻灯片，这就是最终版演示文稿。其他内容全部舍弃。没有他的反馈我根本做不到这点——以我的脑力根本想不到这个层面。

I took slide 10, blew it up into 20 slides, and that became the deck. Okay? Everything else got thrown out. Right now, I couldn't have done that without him. My brain is too small to have figured that out.

所以无论你从事何种创业，只要有原型产品或初期方案，用户都会明确告诉你他们需要什么具体调整。

So anytime you're doing a startup of any kind and you have a prototype or a early product or something going on, your users are going to tell you exactly what tweak they want.

这让我想起今早的一次对话

You've just reminded me of a conversation I had this morning

嗯。

Okay.

当时我在面试一个人。虽然你主要针对创业场景，但这其实适用于所有人的日常。今早我面试公司关键岗位时，那位在世界顶级企业工作二十年的候选人不断讲述各种经历，而我只想确认一件事：『你能操办大型活动吗？』

Where I interviewed someone. Because much of what you're saying is orientated towards startups, but it's actually every single day of everyone's life. Because I interviewed someone this morning for a really critical role in the company, And this person has spent twenty years at one of the biggest companies in the world. And when I was doing the interview, she was telling me about lots of things she's done in those twenty years. And I was just trying to get to this one thing, can you put on events?

她滔滔不绝地讲着各种无关事项，而我来面试的唯一目的就是确认她能否举办大规模活动。一小时面试里55分钟都在讨论我不感兴趣的内容。听你讲的时候我突然想到——她本可以在开场时就问：『史蒂文，我能先问个问题吗？』

And she was telling me about this and that and the other thing and this and this and the other thing. And I was just act I'd only come to this interview to figure out if she could do put on big scale events. So we spent of an hour conversation, we spent fifty five minutes talking about a bunch of things I wasn't interested in. And actually, as you were speaking, was going, do you know what she could have done at the start of that conversation? She could have gone, Steven, can I ask you one question?

你究竟想从这个人身上得到什么？如果当时我直接说，我只想要那些关键部分的活动，那么接下来的55分钟本可以用来说服我她能做到这一点。

What is the what are you looking for from Right. From this person? And if and then I would have gone, I just want some of that component events. And then the next fifty five minutes could have been persuading me that she can do that.

当然。

Sure.

这正好印证了你刚才说的。作为那天会议中的销售人员，以你现在所知，如何才能在不翻遍所有幻灯片的情况下做得更好？

And it just applies to what you just said there. How could you, of this as the salesperson that day in that meeting, with what you know now, how could you have done a better job without going through all of those slides?

嗯，我认为如果现在再做类似的事，我的倾听敏锐度会提高十倍。要知道，我们说话时学不到东西，倾听时才能。所以我会尽量少说多问，甚至不太依赖幻灯片。

Well, I think what what I would do now if I were doing something like that is that my my radar on listening would be 10x. You know, we don't learn when we speak. We learn when we listen. So I would really be trying to talk less and extract more. And I wouldn't even rely so much on slides.

我会真正尝试引导他们说出想表达的内容。基本上，如果你研究过企业——无论是风投支持还是非风投支持的——这非常普遍。几乎没有企业最终采用最初设想的商业模式，那才真是反常。真正塑造产品的，是创始团队与早期客户之间的互动，就像把湿粘土塑造成人们想要的东西。

I'd like to really try to bring them in into what they are trying to say. And so basically, if you study businesses, venture backed, non venture backed, whatever, this is a very common thing. There are almost no businesses who end up with the business model that was originally conceived. I mean, that just would be such an anomaly. It's really the interplay between the founding team and the early customers which really leads to taking this wet clay and making it into something that people want.

比如谷歌眼镜，他们推出时以为全世界都会戴。

And so if you think of something like Google Glass, when they came up with those glasses that they thought the whole world was gonna wear.

是啊。

Yeah.

但它失败了。为什么？因为你在谈论极其私人的领域。好比说，发布一款口香糖——

So it didn't work. Well, why didn't it work? Well, the reason it didn't work is you're talking about something extremely personal. Okay? Like, for example, release chewing gum.

明白吗？口腔是非常私密的空间。我不会把不知名的口香糖放进去。什么是Glott口香糖？看吧，你也不知道。

Okay? My mouth is a very personal space. I'm not gonna put glott's chewing gum in there. What's glott's chewing gum? Exactly.

好吧。

Okay.

好的。是的。

Okay. Yeah.

你不会放一个价格只有箭牌一半的品牌

You're not gonna put some brand that's half the price of Wrigley's

对。

Yeah.

在那里，因为你不想那样做。那对你没吸引力。所以我们戴眼镜、太阳镜或任何穿戴物时，这非常个人化。因此人体工学和人为因素至关重要。如果稍有偏差——现在Meta也在尝试做同样的事。

In there because you don't wanna go there. That's not of interest to you. So when we wear glasses or sunglasses or anything we wear, that's very personal. So the ergonomics and the human factors are very important. If it's slightly off now, Meta is trying to do the same thing.

但他们找了雷朋。对吧？和雷朋成立了合资公司。那些眼镜看起来像普通眼镜。我认为成功几率更高。

But they went to Ray Ban. Right? They did a JV with Ray Ban. Those glasses look like normal glasses. I think there's a higher chance.

嗯，我有几副。但没用过。是的。

Well, I've got some. I haven't used them. Yeah.

你没有谷歌眼镜。

You don't have any Google Glass.

不，不，不，

No, no, no,

不。我

no. I

我记得他们砍掉这个项目了，不是吗？

I think they cut the project, didn't they?

是的。我想说的是我们必须非常密切关注客户。史蒂夫·乔布斯说得对，客户并不知道自己想要什么。明白吗？

Yeah. So what I'm trying to say is that we have to pay very close attention to the customer. I mean, Steve Jobs was right. The customer doesn't know what he wants. Okay?

但如果你把产品摆在他们面前，他们就能提出调整意见并明确告诉你需求。对吧？这是另一个思维模型——现在谈到第三个模型：任何创始团队都不够聪明，根本无法完全洞悉人们的需求。就是这样。

But if you put it in front of them, then they can now tweak and tell you exactly what they want. Right? And that's another mental model, which is now we get to the third model, which is that you're not smart enough. Whatever founding team you have is not smart enough to figure out what people want. Period.

所以你必须具备出色的倾听能力，同时保持灵活性。在倾听时，要区分信号与噪音。接收真正的需求信号，过滤掉无效噪音。这样你才能走上更有意义的发展道路。

So you have to have very good listening skills and you have to have the flexibility to and again, when you're listening, separate the signal from the noise. Right? Take in what is real signal and leave out what is the noise. And then you're starting to get down a path which is going to make more sense.

这里面可能还隐含着一个关于细节关注的模型。当你说沃尔玛创始人躺在货架间测量精确厘米长度时——

The other thing that's kind of a model maybe woven into there was this idea of just attention to detail. I'm not even sure if that's a model, but when you told me about the Walmart founders laying between the aisles to measure the exact centimeter of length

没错。

Yeah.

这个案例对我来说体现的就是极致精确与细节把控。

The model there for me was just precision and detail.

这是场寸土必争的游戏。山姆·沃尔顿给公司命名时选择'沃尔玛'（Walmart）的原因之一，就是这个词只有七个字母。他当时在计算门店招牌的制作成本，所以想用最简短的名称来省钱。明白吗？

It's a game of inches. I mean, what I'm saying is that when when Sam Walton was trying to figure out the name of the company, one of the reasons he went with Walmart was it was seven letters. And he was looking at the cost of putting up signage in his stores. And he was trying to come up with a name with the fewest letters because it cost less. Okay?

成本意识贯穿沃尔玛的每个角落。他们真正做到了点石成金，这也是他们成功的关键。企业经营中永远可控的就是成本。

And so, I mean, cost sensitivity is all over the place in Walmart. I mean, that's just front and center with what they do, right? They just really squeeze blood out of a rock. Basically, I mean, I think that was and that's the reason why they became so successful. One of the things you can always control in business is your costs.

你可能无法控制利润率、售价等很多因素，但永远能控制成本。这需要极强的成本管控纪律。看看LVMH集团，虽然经营奢侈品，但那位掌舵人...

You you may not be able to control your margins and selling prices and a lot of other things, but you can always control costs. So that's another model where you have to have discipline. You have to have very strong discipline on the cost side. If you look at something like LVMH, you know, the guy who runs it, I mean, he's in luxury goods. He's in high end.

LVMH旗下有路易威登和...

LVMH make Louis Vuitton and

是啊。是啊。是啊。我是说，所有事情。你懂吧？

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, everything. You know?

他们收购了蒂芙尼，各位。但你看这家公司的运营方式，非常严丝合缝。他在最佳地段砸钱，因为那很重要。但他谈下来的那些地产交易简直让人瞠目结舌。所以这是个在未必需要如此精细的品类里，运作得极其严密的商业机器。

They've taken over Tiffany's, everyone. But when you look at how the company is run, it's very tight. He spends money on the best real estate because that's important. But the deals he negotiates on those real estate is mind blowing. So it's a very tightly run operation on a product category that doesn't necessarily need it.

但这就是为什么他成了欧洲最富有的人。

But that's why he's become the wealthiest guy in Europe.

因为这种思维模式会渗透到每个决策中。绝对的。如果应用到一百件事情上，影响就大了。

Because that mentality will then apply to every decision. Absolutely. And if you apply it to a 100 things, it does matter.

影响可大了。非常巨大。没错。

Oh, it does matter. Big time. Yes.

所以我这里有些黄色方块

So I have these yellow blocks here

是的。

Yes.

代表经营自己生意的工作时间。

Which represent working hours working on your own business.

对。

Yes.

那演示下你会怎么挪走这些方块

So show me how you would take some of these blocks away

是的。

Yes.

并介绍你为自己事业工作的时间。

And introduce hours working on your own business.

对。基本上，这其实很简单。我们不会打乱睡眠周期，这部分保持不变。

Yeah. So basically, it's it's really quite simple. We're not really not gonna mess with our sleep cycles. We're gonna leave that alone.

睡眠保持不变。

Sleep staying the same.

我们需要保留蓝色区块——即工作空间的40小时。其中一个改变是搬到工作地点附近住，尽可能减少通勤时间。

And we we need our blue, which is our works workspace forty hours. We need that to continue. One of the changes we're gonna make is we're gonna live close to work. So we're gonna cut down commute time as much as we can.

好的。

Okay.

因为每小时都很重要。我们要重点调整的是自由时间。

Because every hour matters. Okay. So the area that we're gonna focus on is the free time.

明白。

Okay.

之所以能压缩自由时间，是因为正如刚才讨论的——我们追求的不是赚钱，而是让音乐被听见。

And the reason why taking out the free time is not a problem is because what we are embarking on, like we just discussed, is not about making money, it's getting our music out.

让音乐被听见。那你...

Getting our music out. What do

你是说

you mean

什么意思？

by that?

这意味着我们内心深知世界需要某些东西，而我们渴望将其带给世界。我们想把它呈现给世界。正因如此，这便不算工作。

Which means that we have something in us that we know the world needs, and we want to bring it to that world. We want to bring it to the world. And because we wanna bring it to the world, it's not work.

我想听众可能在内心质疑：但我热爱我的工作啊。我属于少数幸运儿——每天能和幼犬共事，我对此充满热情。

I think the audience might be challenging themselves in their head and saying, but I love my the thing I do for work. I'm I'm one of maybe the rarer group of people that I get to work with puppies every day, and I love that.

是的。我认为这并不适用于所有人。你需要先认清自我。如果你对朝九晚五的工作及主要清醒时间所投入的事业真正感到兴奋，那太棒了。

Yeah. So I think that I think this is not for everyone. So I think you have to ask yourself who you are. If you are truly excited about your nine to five job and what you're spending your main working main waking hours on, awesome. That's great.

并非人人都要成为创业者或创办初创企业。有些人可能通过他人平台以不同方式传播音乐，这完全没问题。但如果你上班时缺乏早起激情，没有每日踏着舞步去工作的状态，那就存在问题。这时你该自问：是否有其他真正热爱的事想做？

I mean, everyone's not gonna be an entrepreneur. Everyone's not gonna have a startup. Everyone they're they may be getting their music out in a different way on someone else's platform, which is perfectly fine. And but but if if that is not you, where when you go to work, you're not super excited to get up in the in the morning and you're not tap dancing to work every day, if that's not happening, then there's something wrong. And you have to ask yourself, well, is there something else that is that you're passionate about, that you wanna do?

这不该是件费力的事。以比尔·盖茨和保罗·艾伦为例——盖茨在哈佛看到展示早期个人电脑的杂志，立即意识到范式转变的到来。

And this is not something that should take a lot of effort. So if we go back and look at, for example, Bill Gates and Paul Allen. Right? I mean, Bill Gates is at Harvard and he sees a magazine which shows a very early personal computer. And he realizes that there's a paradigm shift.

他明白必须参与其中。而寄来杂志的保罗·艾伦对他说：我们必须立即行动，机不可失。对盖茨而言，这是个极其轻松的决定。

And he realizes that he needs to be part of it. And Paul Allen is the one who sent him that magazine. And he told Bill, we gotta go do this now. This is our time now. And for Bill, it was a very easy decision.

对他父母却难以接受。他们震惊于儿子要放弃学位。盖茨安慰道：别担心，我会回来完成学业的。

Very easy decision. Very difficult for his parents. His parents were in shock that he's gonna abandon his degree. And, you know, he he told his parents, don't worry about it. I'm gonna come back and I'll finish the degree.

数十年后哈佛授予他荣誉学位时，坐在观众席的父母听到他说：我说过会回来的——现在兑现了，对吧？

And several decades later, Harvard gave him an honorary degree. And his parents were in the audience, and he told them, I told you I'd come back. Finish it off. Right?

用具体数字来说明，根据当前统计数据，12%的人明确对自己的工作不满意，这意味着他们讨厌工作。全球85%的员工处于不投入状态，意味着他们没有完全投入或对工作感到快乐。这是一个庞大的数字。超过半数的美国员工至少对工作有些满意，但投入度仍低得令人担忧。所以看这个85%的数字，全球85%的员工不投入工作，意味着他们没有完全投入或对工作感到快乐。

So to put some numbers to this, 12% of people, according to the stats that are listening right now, are explicitly unsatisfied with their job, which means they hate it. 85% of workers globally are disengaged, meaning they're not fully invested or happy at work. So it's a huge number of people. More than half of The US workers are at least somewhat satisfied, but engagement remains worryingly low. So if we look at that 85% number, 85% of workers globally are disengaged, meaning not fully invested or happy at work.

所以真正的问题在于这些人。

So it's really those Sure. People.

而且关键在于，仅仅对工作不满意是不够的。那只是问题的一部分。这种不快乐可能是一个症状。而原因之一可能是你的人生有另一种召唤，而你却没有追随它。比如像比尔·盖茨和保罗·艾伦这样的人，他们找到了自己的使命。

And and the thing is it's not it's not just enough to be unhappy at work. That's one piece of it. The the unhappiness can be a symptom. And one of the one of the causes can be that you have a different calling in life and you are not following your calling. Now, sometimes, for someone like Bill Gates, for example, and Paul Allen, they figure out their calling.

然后他们就义无反顾地去了，对吧？对我们大多数人来说，可能没那么容易。所以，我们需要做的是尝试一些事情。就像试穿不同的鞋子看看哪双合脚。可以进行一些思想实验。

And they just went, right? For many of us, it may not be that easy. So, what we have to do is we have to try a few things. You know, you try on different shoes to see what fits. And so, you know, have some thought experiments.

和朋友聊聊。比如说，好吧，我是个UPS司机，这是我的工作。但我真的很喜欢弹吉他。或者我喜欢在家里做这些艺术小雕像之类的东西。

Talk to your friends. You know, say, okay, you know, I'm a UPS driver. This is what I do. And I really like playing the guitar. Or I like to make these art figurines or something at home, whatever else.

对吧？所以你必须弄清楚你的使命是什么。我可能不是告诉你如何找到使命的最佳人选。也许你的另一位嘉宾可以帮他们解决这个问题。

Right? So you have to figure out what your calling is. And I'm probably not the best person to tell you how to figure out what the calling is. Maybe another guest of yours can help them with that.

你认为每个人都有使命吗？

Do you think everyone has a calling?

是的。我是说，我认为我们都是上帝独特的孩子。我认为我们都有想要表达的音乐。知道那是什么并表达出来可能不是最容易的事，但尝试到达那里是一段值得的旅程。对吧？

Yeah. I mean, I think we are all unique children of God. And I think we all have some music we want to get out. And knowing what that is and getting it out may not be the easiest thing, but it's a worthwhile journey to try to get there. Right?

所以我们不能仅仅因为不满意就做这件事。也不能仅仅因为想赚钱和致富就做这件事。我们必须有一些我们认为世界会感兴趣的东西。就我而言，我曾与几位工业心理学家进行过这样的对话。他们告诉我，莫尼什，你喜欢玩游戏。

So we can't do this just because we're dissatisfied. And we can't do this just because we want to make money and get rich. We've got to have something that we think the world would be interested in. And in my case, I'd gone through this session with a couple of industrial psychologists. And they told me, Monish, you like to play games.

你是个游戏玩家。实际上，他们说得再准确不过了。所以当我创业时，我是个数字和数学方面的人，我其实很喜欢这个。因为我没钱，我过去每周会向200家不同公司的高级IT人员发送200封信。但我所做的这些，所有我发送信件的人，他们都有一个守门人，比如秘书之类的，他们的工作就是不让任何东西通过。

You're a game player. And actually, they couldn't be more accurate. So when I was doing my startup, I'm a numbers guy and a math guy, I actually like that. So what I used to do is because I had no money, I used to send 200 letters a week to the senior IT people at 200 different companies. But what I did is so all these people I was sending this letter to, they had a gatekeeper, some secretary, etcetera, whose job was to not let anything through.

我的全部目的就是需要这封信能顺利送达。它必须通过守门人这一关。所以我使用了邮件合并功能批量生成这些信件，但其中有个性化设置——在邮件中，如果某人名叫David Smith，信里就会写‘亲爱的Dave’。明白吗？整封信都会用Dave来称呼。

And my whole purpose was I need this letter to get through. It needs to get through the gatekeeper. So I was using mail merge which was mass producing these letters, but there was a customization, the mail word, where if some person's name was David Smith, it said, Dear Dave. Okay? And then throughout the letter, it talked Dave.

Dave的名字在信中出现了三四次。当助理收到信时，她无法判断我是否认识Dave。

Dave's name came up like three, four times. When the assistant got the letter, she couldn't tell whether I know Dave or not.

因为你用了他的昵称。

Because you used his shortened name.

更短的名字。而她不想误扔老板认识的人的信件。所以这封信就有足够多机会被递送。明白吗？我还在信件寄出一周后打了电话。

Shorter name. And she doesn't want to throw a letter that somebody that he knows. So the letter would go through enough times. Right? Now what I also did is one week after those letters were delivered, I called.

我打了200通电话。给所有200个人都打了。基本上，如果转到语音信箱就留言，诸如此类。现在他们已进入销售漏斗了。懂吗？

I made 200 calls. I called all 200 people. And basically, if I got voicemail, left a message, whatever else, right? Now they have entered the sales funnel. Okay?

所以Dave Smith现在在销售漏斗里。如果一周后没收到Dave Smith回复，会再打一次。之后通话间隔会呈倍数延长：两周、四周、八周、十六周。但Dave永远不会离开这个漏斗。明白吗？

So Dave Smith is in the sales funnel. If I get no response from Dave Smith, after one week, there's one more call. Then the calls start getting spaced out double time, two weeks out, then four weeks out, then eight weeks out, then sixteen weeks out. But Dave never leaves that funnel. Okay?

除非他明确说‘别再打扰我，我完全没兴趣’。否则他们会一直留在漏斗里。第二周我又寄出200封信，再打200通电话。这样第一周和第二周的客户就都覆盖了。

Until he tells me, do not bother me anymore and I have no interest. They're gonna stay in that funnel. So the second week, I send out another 200 letters, make another 200 calls. Right? And now I've got the first week, second week.

你可以看到随着时间的推移，我在持续不断地打电话。但作为数学出身的人，我真正追踪的是：这200封信寄出后，获得了多少积极回应？

So you can see as time goes on, I'm calling nonstop. Right? Because this thing is but what I was tracking, because I'm a math guy, what I was tracking is, okay, these 200 letters went out. How many people did I get any kind of positive response from? Right?

毕竟不是所有人都会直接拒绝。我还要统计通话与面谈的转化率、面谈到成交的比率等等。而我销售的物品单价非常高，达到数十万美元。

Because not everyone's telling me to get lost. Okay? And how many meetings am I having? And what is the ratio of calls to meetings, meetings to close, etcetera? And my ticket size of the item I was selling was very large, hundreds of thousands of dollars.

这样持续九个月后——让我们回到这里。我们要利用空闲时间。我想说明的是，我现在做的事其实比橙色部分更激动人心。黄色部分比橙色更精彩。

Right? Nine months after doing this where now let's go back here. So we're gonna take our free time. So what I've tried to describe is that what I'm doing is actually more exciting than the orange. The yellow is more exciting than the orange.

基本上来说

So basically

黄色代表什么？

What is the yellow?

黄色代表我们的创业项目。

The yellow is our startup.

所以你正在忙你的创业项目。

So that's working on your startup.

周末时我每天会投入十小时，因为不用上班。工作日则每天四小时，毕竟还有正职和其他事务要处理。这样算来，工作日五天每天四小时，周末每天十小时。而空闲时间嘛，这可比死磕戴夫无趣多了。

So on on the weekends, I'm gonna do ten hours a day because I'm not working. Right? And on the weekdays, I'm gonna do four hours a day because I've got other things to do because I have a job and whatever else is going on. So there's my weekdays, five days there where I'm putting in four hours a day, and then I'm putting in ten hours on the weekend. And the free time, this is not as exciting as pounding Dave.

持续死磕戴夫直到他要么求饶要么签下订单，这才叫刺激。比刷社交媒体或看网飞什么的有意思多了。

Pounding Dave continuously till he says either get off my back or here's your purchase order is very exciting. It's way more exciting than playing some social media or watching Netflix or whatever else.

这正是现在人们打发空闲时间的方式。

Which is what people currently do with their free Right.

所以判断是否该创业的试金石之一就是：黄色必须比橙色更让你兴奋。

So one your one of the litmus tests of whether you need to you should be doing a startup or not is yellow needs to be more exciting than orange.

你的创业项目必须更令人兴奋

Your startup needs to be more exciting

相比空闲时间，看网飞应该让你觉得无聊透顶。刷脸书或Ins这些应该让你觉得索然无味。与之相比...

Like than your free Netflix should be so painfully boring for you. And going on Facebook or Instagram or whatever should be very boring for you. Compared to

这真令人兴奋。相比起创建你的公司。是的。

This is exciting. Compared to building your company. Yes.

所以，你知道平克·弗洛伊德那首歌，我们不需要教育。对。我们不需要思想控制。对。这些我们统统不需要。

So, you know, the Pink Floyd song, we don't need no education. Yeah. We don't need no thought control. Yeah. We don't need none of this.

这太没用了。你明白这有多无用吗？黄色才是关键。不是那些橙色的东西。你不需要这个。

This is so useless. You understand how useless this is? Yellow is where it's at. It's not it's not the orange stuff. You don't need this.

谢谢你，史蒂文。

Thank you, Steven.

所以我们不需要任何空闲时间？

So we don't need any free time?

这比空闲时间更好。

This is better than free time.

创建你的事业。

Building your business.

你每小时都在经历高潮。那还有什么能比这更棒呢？

You're having an orgasm every hour. So what can you what what can be better than this?

我在这里进行这些对话时，大部分时间都在试图设身处地为那些朝九晚五工作的人着想，他们有个想法。这个想法可能尚未真正起步，而他们生活中感受到的压力很可能现在主要是经济上的。比如，渴望财务自由。他们希望生活中有更多选择权，能去度假，做更多选择，拥有更多自由。如果你是那个人，我们还没讨论过的、你需要考虑的思维模式是什么，才能从零开始...

Much of what I do here when I'm having these conversations is I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of the person who is currently sat in a in a nine to five job, and they've they've got an idea. Their idea is isn't really hasn't really gone anywhere yet necessarily, and the the pressure they're feeling in their lives is is probably now a financial one. Like, want financial freedom. They want more optionality in their lives to be able to go on holiday, make more choices, and have more freedom. If you're that person, what are the mental models that we haven't discussed yet that you need to be thinking about to get So from zero to

需要记住的一点是，我们如今生活的世界里，大多数你想创业的事情都不需要大量资金。这意味着什么？不需要太多钱。事实上，随着时间的推移，初创企业需要的资金越来越少，因为它们需要越来越多的脑力。对吧？

one of the things to keep in mind is that we live in a world now where most things that you would want to do in terms of starting a business are not capital intensive. What does that mean? Doesn't take much money. In fact, what's been happening over time is startups need less and less and less money because they need more and more and more brainpower. Right?

好消息是，限制因素并不在于你需要资金。当我创业时，我申请了所有能申请到的信用卡。所以我大概有十几张Visa和万事达卡，总计7万美元的未使用信用额度。另外，我还从退休账户和401K中取出了约3万美元，心想25岁时这些钱以后还能补回来。

So the good news is that a gating factor is not that you need money. When when I started my business, I took on I signed up for every credit card that would come to me. So I had 70,000 in unused credit lines in probably a dozen Visa and Master Cards. Right? I had about $30,000 in my retirement account, my 401Ks, which I also took out and said 25, I can make that up later.

对吧？基本上我手头有10万美元资金。这10万后来都用上了，因为业务启动后需要周转资金等等。但九个月后公司就开始正向现金流了，我也就摆脱了这种状态。

Right? So basically, I had $100,000 of capital. And that 100,000 got used because once I got going, I needed working capital and so on. But then the business was actually cash flow positive. Nine months after I was doing this, I was able to get rid of this.

九个月后，公司产生的现金流已足够让我去辞职。我把这事也写在这里——我去找了我的直属上司和大老板，告诉他们我创业了，业务与公司没有竞争关系，并提交了两周离职通知。

So after nine months, my business was producing enough cash flow that I went and resigned. Okay? And yeah, we can put that in here as well. So what happened is that I went to my boss and his boss and basically told them that I'm started a business. It's not competitive with the company and I'm gonna be leaving in two weeks and this is my two weeks notice.

事情就是这样。他们让我坐下谈话，说：‘Mohanish，过去九个月我们很困惑，因为注意到你业绩大幅下滑，但又不至于到开除的地步。’我说没错，这正是我刻意为之的。

And basically, that was that. Right? And they sat me down and said, you know, Mohanish, we were so confused for the last nine months because we met several times because we saw big drop off in your performance, but was never so low that we wanted to fire you. I said, exactly. That was exactly what I was trying to do.

我就是要保持在濒临被开除的临界点。他们说：‘你掌握得恰到好处，我们开会讨论过好几次，但始终没开除你。’最后他们告诉我：‘等你创业失败时——不是如果失败，是当失败时——请随时回来。’

I was trying to say just about firing level. He said, well, you mastered it. Because we we met several times, but we couldn't get rid of you. So they what they told me is, they said, look. When your business fails, not if your business fails, when your business fails, please come back.

‘我们会加薪，给你升职，非常欢迎你回归。’这意味着我有一次免费试错机会：离职创业若不成，基本能回到原点。

We'll give you more money. You're going to get a promotion, and we'd love to have you back. I could immediately come back. So I said, I got one free shot where I leave my job, I go, I do this thing. And if it doesn't work, I'm back to almost exactly where I was.

几乎没有任何损失，对吧？

Almost no change, Right?

亚马逊的一型二型决策机制。

Amazon's type one, type two decision making Yeah.

这种情况不仅限于我。比尔·盖茨当年冒了什么风险？作为哈佛大一新生，他在就业市场上的价值是零。

And so and this is not just me. What risk does Bill Gates take? Okay. Bill Gates, what is his value as a Harvard freshman in the job market? Zero.

没人会付钱雇佣他，而他随时可以回校完成学业。假设他去新墨西哥州创业失败——

Okay? Nobody would pay him anything. And he could come back anytime and finish that degree. So let's say he went to New Mexico. Things didn't work out.

他在西雅图有富有的父母。明白吗？他刚回来，晚一年毕业，然后继续生活。所以风险在哪？根本没有风险。

He's got wealthy parents in Seattle. Okay? He just comes back, graduates a year later, and he goes on. So what was the risk? There was no risk.

如果你研究一个又一个企业家，你会发现——比如理查德·布兰森爵士想创办航空公司。明白？要开航空公司，你需要一架价值约1.5亿美元的波音747。

And if you study entrepreneur after entrepreneur after entrepreneur, what you're gonna find so if we look at Sir Richard Branson, he wants to start an airline. Okay? Now to start the airline, you need a jumbo seven forty seven that costs like 150,000,000.

飞机。

The plane.

对，飞机。那可是笔巨款。理查德·布兰森零资金零风险就让维珍航空起飞了。他是这么做的：

The plane. Right? That's some serious money. Richard Branson got Virgin Atlantic off the ground with zero and with zero risks. So here's what he did.

用创意代替资本。他拨打了(206)555-1212——这是华盛顿州西雅图的查号台，要了波音公司的电话。然后他打给波音总机。

You replace capital with creative thinking. So he calls (206) 555-1212, which is directory assistance in Seattle, Washington. And he asked for the phone number for Boeing. Okay. So he calls the main Boeing switchboard.

波音是卖飞机的对吧？

Boeing sells the planes, right?

没错，波音制造747。他打给这家巨头公司的总机说想租一架大型客机，结果被挂断了。

Yeah. Boeing makes the seven forty seven. So he calls the main switchboard of Boeing, giant huge company, and says, I'd like to lease a jumbo. And they hang up on him. Okay?

他打了约30次，每次都被挂断。最后接线员烦了，说转给租赁负责人让他死心。结果转接给了真正负责大型机租赁的人。

He calls about 30 times and they keep hanging up. And finally, they get tired of his calls. And the lady says, let me put you in touch with somebody who's in charge of leasing and they can tell you to get lost. Okay? So she transferred him to a person who's actually leasing jumbos.

对方说：布兰森先生，每个国家我们只有一个客户，英国就是英国航空。所以没什么可谈的。理查德说：就当配合我一下——如果英航要租二手747，你们有闲置的吗？

This person tells Richard, says, look, mister Branson, in every country, we have one customer. And in The UK, that is the British that is British Airways. So we have nothing to talk about. So he said, well, just humor me for a second. He said, if British Airways called you and said that they wanted to lease old used jumbo, do you have one lying around?

对方承认有闲置飞机，但觉得这问题没意义。理查德追问租赁价格，最终波音真的把那架飞机租给了他——就因为正好有架飞机闲着。

So the guy said, as a matter of fact, we do, but that's academic. He said, well, what would you lease it to British Airways for? Just since we're having a conversation. What ended up happening is Boeing leased him that jumbo. And the reason they leased him the jumbo is they had one just sitting around.

所以他们实际上没有任何风险，因为他们说一旦那个人不付款，我们就会收回飞机。对吧？所以当你拥有一家航空公司时，你提前四个月就卖出了所有座位。现金已经到手。飞机着陆后三十天才支付燃油费，租赁费也是在飞机着陆后才支付。

So they didn't really have any risk because they said the moment the guy doesn't make any payments, we're gonna pull the plane. Right? So now when you have an airline, you sell all the seats four months in advance. The cash has already come in. You pay for the fuel thirty days after the plane lands, and you pay for the lease after the plane lands.

你不需要任何资本。维珍航空就是零资本起家的。明白吗？如果你能零资本创办一家需要大型客机的航空公司，你就能零资本创办任何企业。对吧？

You don't need any capital. Virgin Atlantic got off the ground with zero capital. Okay? Now if you can start an airline that needs a jumbo with zero capital, you can start any business with zero capital. Okay?

所以基本上，当你观察一个又一个企业时，你会发现它们都是从小规模起步，处于萌芽状态，最小化风险，先获得一些客户。之后，就随着客户需求逐步发展。关键是我们把蓝色部分去掉后，当蓝色不复存在时

So basically, when you look at business after business after business, all of them, what they do is they start small, they're embryonic, they minimize risk, They get a few customers. And then after that, they just roll with the customers, right? And then that's how they get going. The important thing is that when we take the blue out, when blue is no longer here

那就是工作。

Which is work.

当工作消失时，黄色部分几乎会翻倍或三倍增长，因为这里才是所有令人兴奋的活动所在。

Which work is gone, yellow is gonna almost double or triple because this is where all the orgasmic activity is.

所以我们转移了工作。我们辞去了朝九晚五的工作，把那些时间转移到创业上。

So we moved the work. We quit the nine to five job, and we moved that time over to work.

我当时是早上七点到九点做我的创业项目。然后晚上六点回来工作到十点或十二点。那是我还有工作的时候。周末我也会工作。

Was I working on my startup like from seven to nine in the morning. And then I would come back 6PM and work till ten or twelve in the evening. When you had a job. When I had my job. And then I'd work on the weekends.

我极度渴望能全职投入创业，因为我说过，只要让我全职做，我就能大展拳脚。结果确实如此。第一年我们做到了40万美元营收，第二年140万，第三年300万。

And I was so desperate to just go full time into it because I just said, if you just let me go full time, I can tear it up. And that's exactly what happened. I mean, we in about five first year, we did 400,000 revenue. Second year, 1,400,000.0. Third year, 3,000,000.

到第六七年时，我们达到了约15.17亿美元。业务就这样增长，因为那时我已毫无束缚。我可以全力以赴。我清楚所有这些数据的意义——多少电话对应多少转化率等等。

And by the sixth or seventh year, were at about $1,517,000,000. It just grew because basically then I had no shackles on me. You know, I could just go full out. Right? And the engine, I knew all the statistics of these letters, so many calls, so many this, so much this means this and all of that.

这个方法有效。如果行不通，你还可以回到朝九晚五的工作，再试一次。实际上你可以这样尝试多次。

And it works. And if it doesn't work, you can go back to your nine to five and give it another shot. So you actually could do this a few times.

我认为那是个被严重低估的框架，如你所说，或者说思维模式，因为你提到你寄出了200封信。太多次了，孩子们在街上拦住我说，看啊，我一直在找工作，已经发了六封邮件了。

I think that's a really unappreciated framework, as you call it, or mental model, which is because you said you sent 200 letters. I so many times kids come up to me in the street and they say, look. I've been looking for a job. I've sent six emails. Yeah.

然后他们会说，没人回复我。你能看出这打击了他们的信心，现在他们真的得出了结论：找工作比想象中更难，可能因为他们只尝试了六次。但当我面试像你这样的人时，他们给出的数字都大得多。

And they go, no one's got back to me. Yeah. And you can see that it's hit hit their confidence, and now they've actually arrived at the conclusion that getting a job is, like, harder and possible because they sense six. Yeah. Now when I interview people like you, they all give me much bigger numbers.

他们会说200、300甚至500次。这其中蕴含着某种平均法则——就像多挥几次球棒总能击中，板球运动里就能看到这个道理。

They say 200, 300, five you know? And there's something in this sort of law of averages, which is just like, just take more swings. You see it in cricket.

我女儿从伯克利毕业时来找我，她的话让我很惊讶。她说：我想去对冲基金工作。要知道她的学位并非商科，本不该是被考虑的人选。

My daughter, when she was graduating from Berkeley, came to me and I was really surprised. She said, I want to work at a hedge fund. And so I said, Okay. And her degree was not in business. So she was not a natural candidate to be even considered.

我说：你能列出纽约和洛杉矶所有对冲基金的清单吗？用Excel整理好管理合伙人姓名和地址。虽然不知道邮箱，但邮寄地址是公开信息。

I said, can you make a list of every hedge fund in New York and LA? And put it in Excel, managing partner's name, address. Now, we don't know people's email addresses, but we know everyone's mailing address. Okay? The mailing address is a public piece of data.

地址很容易获取。最后她整理了约1200家基金的名单。我告诉她：求职信后面要附两页股票分析，推荐一家能赚钱的公司。我们寄出了1200封实体信。

The address. The address is easy, And I said that so she got a list of about 1,200 funds in LA and New York. And I said, what you're going to do is you're gonna ask for the job, but you're gonna have two pages behind that giving them a stock tip. You're gonna give them a pitch that you have written up of a company that if they invest in, they're likely to make money. We sent the 1,200 letters, physical letters.

全是实体信，没有电邮。结果纽约有位85岁的退休老人收到了信——其实他的基金已不存在，本不该在名单上。

Okay? All physical letters. No email. Right? And there's a 85 year old guy in New York who gets the letter.

但他有位洛杉矶的朋友正好在招分析师，他说：杰米，这女孩的背景很合适。最终她的起薪比所有伯克利商学院的高分毕业生都高。

He's retired. The fund doesn't exist. It shouldn't have been on the list, whatever. But he has a friend in LA. He says, hey, Jamie, aren't aren't you looking for an analyst?

（此条应为Speaker 1的延续内容，但输入中标记为Speaker 0，按原样处理）

And this girl, she seems to have the perfect kind of background. And she ends up with a higher salary than anyone who went to Berkeley Business School with a much higher GPA than hers.

我正思考你说的观点。前几天做了个相关视频，教人们如何发送有影响力的信息。我设计的框架会在屏幕上演示：横轴代表沟通渠道的信噪比，高信噪比渠道能直达决策者。

I was thinking about what you're saying. And I made a video the other day, which I think is somewhat relevant, where I was trying to describe to people how to send a message to someone in a way that creates impact. And the framework that I came up with, which I'll I'll we'll animate on the screen, but it's basically, so this axis here is the signal versus noise of the channel you're using. Mhmm. So a high signal channel is one where it gets past the PA.

嗯。它的饱和度较低，不那么繁忙。高噪声渠道则相反，就像是发送邮件到类似press@yourcompany.com这样的邮箱。没错。

Mhmm. It's less saturated, less busy. A high noise channel, which is the opposite, would be sending an email Yeah. To the, like, press@yourcompany.com's email. Sure.

所以，就像，每个人都走这条路，却没能接触到目标人物。另一个维度基本上是信息的情感影响力。

So, like, everyone goes through that path and doesn't get doesn't get to the person. And then the other axis is basically the emotional impact of the message.

是的。

Yeah.

高情感影响力就是做你提到的那些事，比如放个股票内幕，你会显得突出，他们会觉得你有点怪，或者你说的缩短名字，这能产生更多情感共鸣。而低情感影响力就是那些AI生成的废话，复制粘贴的行话。真正最成功的信息都在这个高端区域。绝对如此。

So high emotional impact is doing what you said, put a stock tip in there, you're gonna stand out, they're gonna think you're a little bit strange, or what you said about, like, shortening the name, that creates more emotional resonance. And then low would just be Yeah. AI slop, copy and paste jargon. And really, like, the most successful messages are up here. Absolutely.

高信号渠道，高情感共鸣。绝对是这样。但最终发生的是人们在这里发送大量信息，然后变得沮丧和失去动力，所以没人回复我。

High like, high signal channel, high emotionally resonant. Absolutely. But what ends up happening is people send loads of messages down here, and then they get depressed and demotivated, so no one's going back to me.

是的。就像迈克尔·乔丹常说的，你不投篮就永远不会得分。对。对。

Yeah. Like Michael Jordan used to say, you miss every shot you don't take. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

所以基本上，我认为企业家需要具备的一点就是韧性。对我来说，我寻找的数据是：如果我寄出5000封信，这需要25周，也就是六个月，最终能带来多少次会议？如果结果是10次或20次会议，那么我就有了我的数字。对吧？第二部分是会议到成交的转化率。

So basically, think one of the things about entrepreneurs is that you need to have resilience. Like for me, the data I was looking for is that if I send 5,000 letters, okay, which takes twenty five weeks, six months, how many meetings does that end up in? If that ends up with 10 meetings or 20 meetings, well, now I have my number. Right? And then the second part is the meeting to close ratio.

对吧？所以作为一个数学人，我只是想知道它不是零。好吧，我只是想确认一下。是的。

Right? And so to me as a math guy, I I was just interested to know that it's not zero. Okay. I just wanna make sure. Yeah.

是的。很快就能看到它不是零。实际上，在最初的两三个月内，我就发现它不是零。

Yeah. See very quickly it was not zero. Literally, within the first two, three months, I could see it's not zero.

每家企业都需要竞争优势。如果你擅长招聘，那么这个优势可能就是你的团队。你引进的A级人才，我指的不仅是全职团队，还包括自由职业支持。如果你觉得现有的人才还不够出色，那么我希望你再看看我们的赞助商Fiverr Pro。Fiverr Pro是Fiverr的高端服务，每位自由职业者都经过严格筛选，确保每次都能获得顶级质量的服务。

Every business needs a competitive edge. And if you're great at hiring, that edge should probably be your people. The a players you bring in, and I don't just mean your full time team, but your freelance support too. If you feel like your talent isn't quite cutting it, then I want you to take another look at our sponsor Fiverr Pro. Fiverr Pro is Fiverr's premium offering, where every freelancer is hand vetted, so you're guaranteed top quality every single time.

Fiverr Pro的卓越之处在于，你能从市场营销、网页与应用开发、人工智能等750多个领域中挑选经验丰富的顶尖人才。这些专业人士能迅速介入并领导那些你的团队可能暂时无法应对的复杂项目。由于这是个性化服务，Fiverr Pro的招聘专家会为你物色业务所需的人才——他们不仅负责雇佣，还会全程管理你的外包项目。如果对自由职业者的工作不满意，你还能获得全额退款。

What's brilliant about Fiverr Pro is that you're picking from a very experienced talent in marketing, web, app development, AI, and 750 other categories. And these are people that can swoop in and lead the more complex projects that your team might not be capable of handling yet. And because it's a personalized service, a Fiverr pro hiring expert will find the help your business needs for you. They'll hire them and manage your outsourced projects end to end too. And if you're not happy with your freelancers work, then you get your money back.

他们对人才就是如此自信。想尝试的话，请访问fiverr.com/diary，首单使用优惠码diary可享9折。我认为给孩子最有塑造性的经历（就像我16到19岁时的经历）就是在电话销售中直面冰冷拒绝。我16岁的工作就是晚上9点打陌生电话推销门窗。这教会了我你所说的道理：确实80%的人会让你滚开。

They are that confident in their talent. So to give it a shot, head to fiverr.com/diary, and for 10% off your first order, use code diary. I think one of the the most formative experiences you can give your children, which I got at 16, through through 16 to 19 years old, which is what I did, was working in cold telesales. So my job at 16 years old was to call people at 9PM, cold, and try and get them to buy windows and doors. And it taught me the exact lesson you're describing, which is, yes, 80% of people tell you to fuck off.

98%的人会这么说，但这不重要。

98% say that, but doesn't matter.

我常说80%的人让我滚开，15%的人委婉拒绝，剩下5%至少愿意听我说完。对，对。

I always say, 80% told me to fuck off. 15% said it in a nice way, and then 5% were at least receptive receptive to to what what I I had had to to say. Say. Yeah. Yeah.

也许1%能成交。但当你明白这点，就会用这种视角看待人生。

Maybe Maybe 1% close. But when you understand that, you think of life through that lens.

实际上Steven，我也有类似经历。我父亲是位企业家，他特别擅长发现我称之为'需求缺口'的东西——那些本该存在却未被满足的市场需求。他总能在零资金情况下创立企业，我见证他多次做到。

And actually, Steven, I had almost same experience. So my father was an entrepreneur. He was really smart at identifying what I call offering gaps, like things that should exist in the world but didn't. And he would get these businesses off the ground with no money. I saw him do it repeatedly.

他的问题在于扩张过于激进，导致企业缺乏持久力。几乎没有资产净值，总是高杠杆运作，因此破产了八九次。我11、12岁时，兄弟俩就像他的董事会成员。

His downfall was he was very aggressive in growing the businesses. And so they didn't have staying power. There was almost no equity, always very levered. So he went bankrupt eight or nine times, right, repeatedly. When I was when I was about 11 or 12 years old, my brother and I, we were like his board of directors.

明白吗？因为他无人可依。我们三人每晚都在研究如何让生意多撑一天。所有事情都在崩塌边缘。

Okay? Because he had nobody else. The three of us would sit down at night to figure out how to make the business last for one more day. Okay. Everything's caving in.

债主步步紧逼，企业濒临倒闭。我们只想让生意再维持一天。然后第二天晚上又聚在一起想办法。

The creditors are craving in. The business is collapsing. How do we make it work for one more day? And then the next night, we'd get together. And how do we get to work for one more day again?

16岁那年，父亲在迪拜经营黄金首饰工厂。至今不知他为何这样做，但我无比感激——他带着我挨家拜访珠宝店，推销自家生产的首饰。

Right? At 16, and I don't know why my dad did this, but I'm so grateful that he did. He was at that time, he had a gold jewelry factory in Dubai. And he was going cold calling in person to jewelry shops to buy his jewelry that he was manufacturing. So he took me with him on many of these trips.

那时我也才16岁，和你一样大。对吧？我们常常从迪拜打车去阿布扎比。现在那里到处都是金店，但他一家都不认识。

And I was 16, just like you. Right? So we would take the taxi from Dubai to Abu Dhabi. And now there's all these gold shops. He doesn't know any of them.

对吧？他就一家接一家地拜访。让我震惊的是，到第五家店时他居然成交了。虽然金额很小，因为他还没建立信任什么的，但毕竟开单了。

Right? And he's going one after the other after the other after the other. And I would be stunned that fifth shop, he makes a sale. Yeah. And it's a very small sale because he has no trust and all that, but he's made the sale.

三个月后我注意到，当我们再访那家成交过的小店时，店主端出了茶。他们之间产生了化学反应，订单变大了。后来我看着订单量不断增长。明白吗？

Then I noticed that after three months, we go back to that same shop we made the little sale to. The guy brings out tea. He there's a there's a lot of chemistry, bigger order. And then I saw the orders increase. Right?

他持续用这种方式拓展。我还跟他去过卡塔尔的多哈，同样的故事重演。我亲眼目睹那些门是如何被敲开的，也看到门被关上时他毫不在意的样子。

And then he's continuing to do that. I I went with him to Doha, Qatar Qatar. And again, the same thing. It was like, you know, I saw how those doors opened. And I saw how it didn't matter to him when they closed.

对他来说那根本无关紧要。懂吗？

That was irrelevant to him. You know?

这个思考角度非常新颖，因为你其实在说——每获得一个肯定的答复，就像播下了一颗可能成长的种子。

Really interesting new way to think about it because what you're saying there is actually when you get that one yes, it's actually a seed that's being planted that can grow into something.

我们只在乎比例和数量。听着，关键是要付出多少努力？就像我说的，如果我发5000封信能换来20次会面，那就太棒了。这个比例很惊人，因为一单生意就能带来20万或30万美元，相当可观对吧？

We just care about the ratio and the number. Okay. So what effort did it take? Like I was saying, if I send 5,000 letters and I get 20 meetings, that's awesome. I mean, that's a fantastic ratio because one sale is going to get me about $200,000 or $300,000 It's a significant amount, right?

我的意思是，我不需要很大的数量。

I mean, I don't need large numbers.

但客户的终身价值——

But the lifetime value of that

可能非常巨大。没错。当年建立的这些客户关系，至今还保持着。明白吗？

could It's huge. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I mean, these these relationships I got then, they're still with me. You know?

所以这就像是永恒。

So it's it's it's like forever.

这里有个哲学思考方式适合所有人：你或许记得生活中那些看似完全无关紧要的对话。但八年后，那颗种子可能发展成商业关系。我常举的例子是14岁时申请BBC《学徒》节目的青少年版，这是个很长的故事。

Here's a philosophical way to think about that for just everybody, which is you can remember probably conversations you had in your life that you thought were totally inconsequential. But then eight years later, that seed became a business relationship. The example I always give is when I was 14, I applied for The Apprentice. They did this, like, junior apprentice on the BBC. And it's a long story.

全英国有35,000个孩子报名。排队试镜时我遇到个男孩，他说他父亲经营着五亿美元的公司。我当时心想'哦随便吧'，完全不感兴趣。

35,000 kids in London and across The UK applying. I met a kid in the line while I was queuing up for my audition. And he said to me, oh, my dad runs this $500,000,000 company. And I was like, yeah, whatever. Like, not interested.

我参加了试镜但最终落选。不过因为那天排队时我对那孩子很友善，还加了他脸书。五年后我收到他的消息。

I went through the auditions. I didn't and didn't end getting on in the show for whatever reason. But then I ended up because we were waiting in the queue that day. I was really nice to this kid, and I added him on Facebook. Five years later, I get a message on Facebook.

虽然当年没入选节目（获胜能获得2.5万美元投资），但五年后我创业时，那个排队认识的男孩联系我说：'我父亲以十亿美元出售了公司，这五年我一直在脸书关注你，他想见你'。

Hey. Five years later, although I didn't get on the show, which would have got me about $25,000 investment in my company if I'd won, five years later, I'm working on a start up. That kid from the line says, hey. My dad has sold his business for a billion dollars, and I've been watching you on Facebook for the last five years. My dad would love to meet you.

那是印度Alawwalis家族，他们出售了Euro Car Parts公司。在我穷到偷超市食物果腹时，他们带我去伦敦，他父亲给我的投资是节目奖金的两倍。

It was an Indian family, the Alawwalis. They had sold a business called Euro Car Parts. They took me to London when I was literally so broke. Was, like, shoplifting food to feed myself. And his dad invested double what I would have won on the show into my business.

这件事始终提醒我：每次对话都像播种，生命中的任何时刻都可能发芽。就像——

And I and that always reminded me that, like, every conversation that I have is like planting a seed that any point in my life. Could turn into something. Like the

我总提起亚当·格兰特的《给予与索取》，不知道你是否看过。地球上所有人分三类：给予者、索取者或匹配者。

I mean, you know, I always bring up Adam Grant's book Givers and Takers. I don't know if you've seen that. All humans on the planet fall into one of three categories. They are either a giver or a taker or a matcher. Okay?

人类只有这三个类别。匹配者很好理解，他们的思维框架是'如果史蒂文帮我，我会回馈类似帮助'，他们能计算得失。

These are there are no other categories of humans. There's just these are the three categories. Now, the matchers are relatively simple to understand. Their mental framework is, if Steven does me a favor, I'm going to try to do something similar for him. One to one.

永远别接触索取者，他们只想欺诈压榨他人只进不出。这些人最终一事无成。

They can do matching, math in their heads. The takers, who you don't have anything to ever do with, are trying to scam and screw everyone and always take and never give. Okay? The takers basically go nowhere. Okay?

如果你生活中有索取者，请远离他们。明白吗？至于给予者，他们的行为模式是不计较回报。他们只想帮助你，想为人类做贡献。

And if you have any takers in your life, get rid of them. Okay? Now the givers, what the givers do is the givers are not focused on what comes back to them. They just want to help you. They want to help humanity.

最终宇宙会合力相助——给予者反而成为最成功的人。尽管他们从不索取，所有人却都争相给予。这就是亚当·格兰特在《给予与索取》书中阐述的思维模式，要成为给予者而非算计者。

And what ends up happening is the universe conspires to help them. So the givers become the most successful. Everyone is trying to give to them even though they're not asking for it. So basically, when we and that's the book that Adam Grant wrote, Givers and Takers, is one of the mental models, which this is a great mental model to have, is to be a giver. Don't play math games.

永远确保对方能在交易中获益更多。秉持这个原则生活，累积的善意自会带来回报。

Always try to make sure the other guy gets the better end of the deal. And just keep going through your life that way. And that goodwill will compound and it will take care of itself.

还有时间维度的问题。你根本不需要担心时间维度。

And the time horizon. You don't worry about the time horizon.

关键不在于期待回报。不要做任何功利计算，不要想着'我这样做就能得到XYZ'。单纯去做就对了。

You're not doing it for getting something back. That's the key. You're not doing any mathematics like I'm gonna do you're not calculating. I'm gonna do this so XYZ happens. You're just doing it.

就是这样。

End of story.

昨晚我和女友聊天。她经营呼吸疗法事业，本质上是个人创业者。现在正面临规模化难题——其实我遇到太多类似情况的创业者了，之前还专门做过调研。

I was sat with my girlfriend last night. She runs a breathwork business, so she's essentially a solo printer. And she's at that point where she's trying to scale. In fact, I just meet so many entrepreneurs. Think I actually ran a survey before.

绝大多数企业主都处于中小微企业阶段，这些初创企业是经济支柱。但他们总向我提出相同困境：从个体户起步后需求激增，现在自己成了瓶颈，不知如何突破自由职业者模式。自由职业者如何转型为机构？昨晚我和女友讨论的重点就是——她还没跨出关键一步：聘用顶尖人才。

And the vast majority of business owners are in that SME category, that small small sort of business category. It's the back start ups and the backbone of our economy. But they they come to me with the same problem, which is maybe I started as an individual, I've got high demand, and now I'm a bottleneck, and I don't know how to get out of being like a freelancer. How does the freelancer become an agency? And the the thing I was chatting to my girlfriend about last night was the steps she hasn't taken yet is to hire someone exceptional.

很多早期创业者找我时说'客户只认我''别人做得没我好''我不信任任何人'。不知道你是否有相关的思维模型...

And so many founders come to me, these early stage founders are like, like, I I my customers like me. I do it better. I don't trust anybody. I I wondered if you had, a mental model thinking

你看像埃隆·马斯克和史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的人，他们认为招聘才是首要工作。SpaceX前3000名员工全是马斯克亲自面试的。想想这个数字——3000次录用背后是多少场面试？

The about thing is, so if you look at people like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs, they believe their number one job is recruiting. The first 3,000 people who joined SpaceX, all personally interviewed by Elon. Just think about that. Those are 3,000 hires. Think about the number of interviews to get the 3,000 hires.

明白吗？他坚信别无他法。史蒂夫·乔布斯常说，A级人才只愿与A级人才共事。一旦引入B级人才，他们就会雇佣B级和C级人才，绝不会聘用A级人才。

Okay? He did not believe there was any other way. And what Steve Jobs used to say is that a players want to work with a players. The moment you start introducing b players, b players will hire b and c players. They will never hire an a player.

所以当你雇佣了B级人才时，企业的下坡路就已经开始了。作为创业者，我们的时间非常宝贵，对吧？但招聘必须放在首位。你必须愿意在招聘上投入大量时间。

So your downhill journey has already started the moment you get a b player. And so as an entrepreneur, you know, we have a lot of demands on our time. Right? But recruiting has to be at the top. And you've got to be willing to spend inordinate amounts of time on recruiting.

明白吗？现在有些工具可以使用。我们采用了一家叫Caliper的公司进行入职前测试。关键在于，一个人的基因和五岁前的成长经历决定了他们的本质特征，这些特质从五岁到九十五岁都不会改变。

Okay? And there's, you know, there are tools that you can use. We use there's a company called Caliper we use for preemployment testing. And the thing is that between the genetics of a human and the first five years of their life experience, who they are, their traits are hard coded. That is not gonna change from five to 95.

懂吗？你改变不了一个人的本质。人就是他们本来的样子。这些入职前测试能提供面试中无法获得的数据。

Okay? So it's not like you're gonna change a human. Human is the way they are. Okay? Now these pre employment testing tests can get you data that you're not gonna get in an interview.

我正在创建的一家公司叫culturetest.com，做的就是这类测试。

One of my companies I'm building at the moment is called culturetest.com. It's exactly this.

明白。

Okay.

你这简直是对着懂行的人讲道理嘛。

I mean, you're just, like, preaching preaching to the choir here.

但我想说的是

But what I'm saying is that

这这正是我们最需要的

It it was the most we need

要真正精通招聘之道。

to get really good at recruiting.

是的。好吧。这绝对是我最痴迷的事情。通过进行这些文化测试，我发现在普通人群中已经对成千上万人进行了文化测试。

Yeah. Okay. It's my absolute, absolute obsession. And what I found out is that, enough, I'm doing these culture tests. I've kind of culture tested tens of thousands of people in the general population now.

令人震惊的部分是——为了让你了解它的作用——它为我们表现最佳的人员设立了决策基准。这里的假设是：文化不是你在场外会议上想出来的东西。文化是当你在圣诞夜收到客户短信时的行为反应。你在那种情境下的做法就是你的企业文化。因此它通过设计问题来模拟团队中的理想文化，将你置于那个场景中并询问：你会怎么做？

And the shocking part was just to give you some context on what it does, it benchmarks our best performing people and how they make their decisions. The assumption here is that culture isn't the thing you come up with at the off-site. Culture is how you'd behave on Christmas Eve when you get a text message from a client. Like, what you do there is your company culture. So it basically creates these questions which simulate optimal culture in that team, and it puts you in that scenario and says, what do you do?

现在可能是向各位介绍culturetest.com的好时机，这是我们即将推出的网站，面向所有需要招聘的人——可能包括每位听众。一个糟糕的雇佣决定可能毁掉整个公司，所以我们创建了culturetest.com，让在座的各位能识别那些危险信号，避免那些可能终结你企业的雇佣决定。CultureTest将为你生成个性化文化测试，用于筛选每个想加入你团队的人、现有团队成员甚至离职员工，查看他们的契合度。只需访问culturetest.com输入邮箱，我们上线后会立即发邮件让你优先体验。

This is probably a good point to talk to you guys about culturetest.com, which is the website we're about to launch for anyone who has the responsibility of hiring someone, which is probably everybody listening. One bad hire can destroy your entire company, so we made culturetest.com so that you guys at home can spot those red flags and avoid those hires that might be the end of your business. CultureTest will make you your own personalized culture test so that you can screen every single person that wants to be in your team and your current team members and people that have left to see how they align. Just go to culturetest.com and put your email address in. And the minute we launch, I'm gonna send you an email so you can try it before anybody else.

招聘确实非常重要。另外我们也愿意雇佣某些方面不如我们的人。但事实上，我发现团队里有很多人比我更优秀。他们在许多事情上做得更好，因为那些工作本就不是我的专长。嗯。

So recruiting is really important. And I think the other thing is we're willing to hire people who may not do things as well as we do. But actually, also, what I've also found is I have so many people on my team who are better than me. You know, they're better at many of these things because it's not my natural bent to do those jobs. Mhmm.

这才是真正获得超高性价比的时候——最终你会拥有远超自己水平的团队成员。

So that's really when you get a huge bang for the buck is you end up with team players that are way better than you.

你如何看待解雇员工？

How do you think about firing people?

因为这是我唯一...常听到的说法是'慢招快裁'。

Because this is the only So thing I hear from hire slow, fire fast.

创始人们往往对'快速解雇'这一点很挣扎。

Founders really struggle with the fire fast thing.

快速解雇非常重要。我认为快裁比慢招更重要。你其实是在帮助那个人，因为他们在另一个岗位或公司可能会非常出色。你是在帮他们寻找更适合的位置，同时也在帮助其他团队成员。

And it is very important to fire fast. I think fire fast is more important than hire slow. And you're doing the person a service because they may be exceptional in another role, at another place. So you are helping them try to find that. And you're helping your other team members.

如果我试图工作

If I was trying to work

对你们公司来说，什么是不可妥协的？如果我表现出哪种特质，会立刻让你们不考虑我？

for your companies, what is the one non negotiable? What is the trait that I would demonstrate where you would immediately not even consider me?

最重要的是诚信。我们看重三个特质：智力、诚信和勤奋工作意愿，这三者都不可妥协。

The most important is integrity. I mean, we want three traits, right? We want intelligence, we want integrity, and we want willingness to work hard, right? And none of these three are really negotiable.

在你们定义中，诚信具体指什么？

And what does integrity mean in your definition?

绝对诚实很简单，是非分明。你要以最高道德标准要求自己，无论对待客户还是处理内外部事务，道德标准都必须极高。

Well, absolute honesty is pretty simple. It's black and white. You conduct yourself with the highest levels of ethical standards. So on all fronts, when you're dealing with a customer or internally or externally, it's the moral standards need to be very high.

回顾你的财富积累，多少来自创业创造，多少来自将创业所得资本进行卓越投资？

When you think about your wealth, how much of it has come from building businesses versus being a great investor of the capital that you manage to make from those businesses?

目前大部分收益来自投资端。

I think currently most has come from the investing side.

你以数十年来卓越的投资能力闻名。我会在屏幕上放一张图表，显示你的投资策略回报率与道琼斯指数的对比。你之前见过这张图吗？

You're very well known for being a really excellent investor over many, many, many, many, many years. I'll put a graph on the screen that I found, which I think shows the returns of your investment strategy versus the the Dow Jones, this graph. Have you seen that one before?

没见过这种呈现方式，但人们会展示各种数据。

I haven't seen it this way, but people put up all kinds of things. Yeah.

这图表说明你极其擅长投资。所以我想知道，如果我现在刚开始投资生涯，做着朝九晚五的工作，银行账户有几千美元，我该如何规划投资？是否应该现在开始投资？

I mean, all this says is that you're extremely good at investing. So I wanna know, if I if I'm starting my investing career, I'm working in a nine to five job at the moment, I've got a couple of thousand dollars in my my bank account, how should I be thinking about investing? Should I be investing? So

投资要取得好结果取决于三个要素：起始资本（本金多少）、跑道长度（投资期限）、以及复利效应（年化收益率）。

there are three things that matter in terms of getting a great outcome with investing. Starting capital. How much the amount you start with. Length of the runway. How long are you going to invest the money.

关于回报率。明白吗？在回答你的问题之前，我想先讲个故事。这是个真实的故事。1623年，在纽约，拥有曼哈顿岛的美国原住民印第安人，荷兰殖民者想买下这座岛。

And the rate of return. Okay? So before I answer your question, I wanna tell you a story. So, and this is a true story. In 1623 in New York, the native American Indians in New York who owned the Island Of Manhattan, the Dutch settlers wanted to buy the island.

于是他们找到印第安人说，我们想买下曼哈顿岛。这里天然港口优越，对我们来说是个好地方。最终印第安人与荷兰人以23美元的价格达成交易。人们听到这个价格时，会觉得印第安人被骗了。要知道，曼哈顿岛只卖23美元简直荒谬。

And so they went to the Indians and said, we'd like to buy the Island Of Manhattan. Great natural harbors. It can be a great place for us. And the Indians and the Dutch reached an agreement to sell the Island Of Manhattan for $23 And when people hear that, they think, oh, the Indians got taken. Know, Island Of Manhattan for $23 is ridiculous.

但假设印第安人有个信托经理，他们交代说：把这23美元投资出去为部落谋利，尽量做好。对吧？现在有个72法则。72法则非常重要，我真希望中学能比小学更重视这个知识。它告诉我们资金翻倍需要多长时间。

But let's say the Indians had a trust officer who they said, invest this $23 for the benefit of the tribe and try to do a decent job. Right? Now, there's something known as the rule of 72. And the rule of 72 is a a very important rule, and I wish they would teach it more in high school than elementary school. It tells us how long it takes money to double.

这算是数学技巧。比如，如果获得7%的回报率，用72除以7约等于10。以7%的回报率计算，资金需要十年翻倍。7%的复利需要十年。如果是10%的回报率，则需要七年。

And it's a kind of a mathematical hack. So for example, if I'm going to get a 7% return and I do 72 divided by seven, that's approximately 10. And at the 7% return, it's gonna take ten years for the money to double. 7% compounded will take ten years. If I have a 10% return, it will take seven years.

72除以10等于7。如果获得15%的回报率，需要五年——72除以15约等于5。若是20%的回报率，则需三年半。所以72法则是个实用技巧，了解资金翻倍时长很重要，这样我们就能心算很多问题。

72 divided by 10 is seven. If I have a 15% return, it will take five years. 72 divided by 15 is five, approximately. And if I have a 20% return, it'll take three and a half years. So this rule of 72 is a nice hack, and it's very important to know how long money takes to double because then we can start doing a lot of math in our heads.

回到印第安人那23美元，如果获得7%的回报率，十年后会变成46美元，二十年后92美元，三十年后184美元，以此类推。如果计算一百年，就是十个十年周期。

So when we look at these Indians with the $23, if they were getting a 77% return, it would become $46 in ten years. And then it would become $92 in twenty years. And $184 in thirty years. So on. Now if you go one hundred years, right, it's 10 periods of 10.

十个十年周期相当于2的10次方，也就是1024。我们忽略24以简化计算。所以7%复利一百年后，本金会变成一千倍。正因复利增长呈非线性，人们才难以直观理解。

And 10 periods of 10 is two to the power of 10. And two to the power of 10 is 1,024. So we throw away the 24 because we don't wanna complicate the math. So at 7% for a hundred years, you would have a thousand times what we started with. And this is why because compounding becomes nonlinear, people have a hard time getting their hands around it.

非线性是指？

So Nonlinear meaning?

不是直线上升，而是呈...

It's not going up in a straight curve. It's going up in a

曲棍球杆式增长。

Hockey stick.

曲棍球棒俱乐部。对。所以在1723年，印第安人会有23,000。会增加一千。然后如果他们继续以7%的速度增长，到1823年，他们会有23,000,000。

Hockey stick club. Yeah. So in 1723, the Indians would have 23,000. It would have gone up a thousand. And then if they continue at the 7%, in 1823, they would have 23,000,000.

到了1923年，他们会拥有23,000,000,000。而到了2023年，他们将拥有23,000,000,000,000。明白吗？现在美国所有男女老少的全部财富是150,000,000,000,000美元。其中六分之一并非曼哈顿未开发的土地。

And in 1923, they would have 23,000,000,000. And in 2023, they'd have 23,000,000,000,000. Okay? Now the entire wealth of every man, woman, and child in The United States is $150,000,000,000,000. One sixth of that is not undeveloped land in Manhattan.

所以如果印第安人过去四百年每年以7%的利率投资，他们会比拥有土地更有钱。所以他们没有被欺骗。他们得到了公平的交易。只是没有一个好的信托经理能帮他们实现这一点。复利的魔力在于，我们从23美元开始，最终得到了23,000,000,000,000，而无需极高的回报率。

So if the Indians had invested at 7% a year for the last four hundred years, they would have more money than owning the land. So they were not taken. They were given a fair deal. But they just didn't have a good trust officer who could actually make it happen for them. So the magic of compounding is that we started with $23 and we end up with 23,000,000,000,000 without having a great rate of return.

7%的回报率只是还行。不算高，也不算差，就是还行。现在如果我们回溯一百年到1623年。再往前一百年到1523年。

It's just an okay 7% is just okay. It's not great. It's not bad, but it's okay. Now if you go back a hundred years so we started at 1623. Go back a hundred years to 1523.

1623年我们有2300美分。2300美分？23美元就是2300美分。

We had 2300¢ in 1623. 2300¢? $23 is 2300¢.

哦，好吧。如果如果他们得到了

Oh, okay. If if they'd got it

只是把美元换算成美分。对吧？现在如果你把它缩小到千分之一

Just convert it to cents instead of dollars. Right? Now if you make it one thousandth of that

让我确认一下，你是说如果从那个时间点再往前一百年，你只给他们23美分

So just so I'm clear here, so if you're saying if you went back a hundred years from that point and you gave them just 23¢

如果你给他们2美分。

If you gave them 2¢.

如果你给他们2美分。

If you gave them 2¢.

准确来说是2.3美分。如果你只给他们2美分，一百年后会变成20美元。如果给2.3美分，一百年后就是23美元，而现在就会变成23,000,000,000,000美元。对吧？

2.3¢ to be exact. If you just gave them 2¢ Yeah. A hundred years later, there will be $20. If you gave them 2.3¢, a hundred years later, they'd be $23, and now it would be the 23,000,000,000,000. Right?

所以我想说的是，如果时间跨度足够长，初始资金并不重要。甚至回报率也不重要，只要时间够长。人们在考虑投资时，需要记住几点。首先是支出要少于收入。所以总是要先存下第一块钱，而不是最后一块钱。

So what I'm trying to say is that if the runway is long enough, the starting capital doesn't matter. Even the rate of return doesn't matter if the runway is long enough. Now so when people are thinking about investing, they have to keep a few things in mind. The first thing is spend less than you earn. So always try to save the first dollar rather than the last dollar.

如果你年收入5万美元，先存下5000美元，然后再安排其他开支。从这个例子中我们看到，年轻时就开始很重要。所以人们22或23岁开始工作时就要储蓄，因为22岁时的早期资金可以复利五十年。这才是我们想要的。我们不需要做什么惊天动地的事，比如找到下一个英伟达之类的。

So if you are making $50,000 a year, put 5,000 to savings to start with and then do the rest of your expenses after that. Now it's very important when we saw with this example, you start young. So when people start working at 22 or 23, whenever they start working, they have to be saving then because that early money at 22 can compound for fifty years. And that's what we want. So we don't need to do heroic things with finding the next Nvidia or whatever else.

我们只需要投入指数基金。重要的是支出少于收入，并持续每年存入5.07、10,000美元到储蓄中。不要拿它去夏威夷度假。让它持续复利。就投入宽基指数基金，我们真的不用操心。

We can just put it into an index. And the important thing is spend less than you earn and keep putting that $5.07, 10,000 every year into the savings. Don't go have a vacation in Hawaii with it. Let it keep compounding. And just put it into a broad index, and we don't really care.

那么对于从未投资过的人——可能观众中大部分都是——我们怎么能进一步简化'投入指数基金'这个概念？这是什么意思？

So for someone who has never invested before Yeah. Which would probably be the majority of the audience, How do we simplify even further in terms of just put it in an index? What does that mean?

基本上，你可以在富达、盈透证券或Robinhood等任何平台开户。用很少的钱就能开一个经纪账户。

So basically, you could open an account at Fidelity or Interactive Brokers or Robinhood, any of these places. You could open a brokerage account for very little money.

而且每个国家都有很多这样的平台。

And there's lots of them in every country.

是的。然后你可以直接让他们帮你买入标普500指数基金，他们就会帮你完成投资。

Yeah. And then you could just ask them to buy you the S and P 500 index, for example, And they will get you invested in that.

标普500基本上就是前500强公司？

And the S and P 500 is basically the top 500 companies?

对，是美国500家龙头企业。比如英伟达、微软、苹果这些公司都在里面。

It's the, yeah, the 500 dominant businesses in The US. Like Nvidia is in there and Microsoft and Apple and so on.

如果过去一个世纪的趋势持续下去，你每年能获得10%的收益吗？

And you're gonna get your 10% a year if it if the trend holds over the last century?

标普500指数有很多时期是停滞不前的。现在它有些过热。但我认为如果你的投资期限足够长，采用定期定额投资法是完全可行的。另一个选择是买入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票，代码BRKB。

The S and P has plenty of periods where it does nothing. It's somewhat overheated right now. But I think if you have a long enough time horizon, your dollar cost averaging in, it's perfectly okay. What you could also do as an alternative is buy Berkshire Hathaway. So that's a stock, BRKB.

所以你可以告诉这些人直接投资伯克希尔哈撒韦。它就像一个指数基金。同样地，你可以设置好就忘掉它。你不需要考虑投资方面的事，专注于你的主业就行。

So you could again tell these people that just put it into Berkshire Hathaway. It's like an index. And and again, it's like set it and forget it. You don't need to think about the investing side. You focus on yellow.

明白吗？持续把这点小钱存起来，它会复利增长。比如18岁时存5000美元，快进到68岁，五十年后对吧？假设这笔钱每年获得10%的回报...

Okay? And keep putting this little money away on the side and it's gonna compound. And so at 18, if you put away $5,000 and you fast forward to when you're 68, fifty years later, right? Now if if you got a 10% return on that money.

每年都如此。

Every year.

假设每七年翻一番。72除以10等于7。五十年就是七次翻倍。

Let's say. Every seven years it would double. Okay? 72 divided by 10 is seven. Fifty years is seven doubles.

7乘以7是49。2的7次方是128。我们可以忽略28，简单计算。

Seven times seven is 49. And two to the power of seven is one twenty eight. Okay? So we can throw away the 28. Keep it simple.

最终你会得到初始金额的100倍。所以18岁时的5000美元会变成50万美元。19岁再存钱，又是50万。20岁时可能能存1万美元。

You're gonna have a 100 times what you started with. So the 5,000 at 18 is gonna be 500,000. Okay. At 19, if you put money away, that's another 500,000. 20, you might have 10,000 you can put in.

这样你就能看到，经过一生积累，你会拥有花不完的钱。

So you can start seeing that over a lifetime, you're going to be having too much money.

你可能已经发现，我对高水平运动队的心理建设极为着迷。这始于我作为曼联球迷对弗格森爵士的热爱。所以当我听说Netflix新出了一部关于达拉斯牛仔队崛起的纪录片时，立刻引起了我的兴趣——尽管我对美式橄榄球并不狂热。

As you might have been able to tell, I'm absolutely fascinated by the psychology behind high performing sports teams. I think it started with my love for Sir Alex Ferguson as a Manchester United fan. So when I was told about a new Netflix series that covers the rise of the Dallas Cowboys, it immediately piqued my interest. And this isn't because I'm mad about American football. I'm not.