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我虽然不是技术天才,但我知道如果想让我的业务大获成功,现在就需要一个网站。幸运的是,Bluehost让这一切变得简单。我用AI按照自己的意愿定制、优化并实现了所有内容的变现。几分钟内,我的网站就上线了。我简直不敢相信。
I'm no tech genius, but I knew if I wanted my business to crush it, I needed a website now. Thankfully, Bluehost made it easy. I customized, optimized, and monetized everything exactly how I wanted with AI. In minutes, my site was up. I couldn't believe it.
搜索引擎工具甚至帮助我获得了更多网站访问者。无论你的激情项目是什么,都可以通过Bluehost来搭建。凭借他们30天的退款保证,你有什么可损失的呢?前往bluehost.com,也就是blueh0st.com,立即开始吧。
The search engine tools even helped me get more site visitors. Whatever your passion project is, you can set it up with Bluehost. With their thirty day money back guarantee, what do you got to lose? Head to bluehost.com. That's blueh0st.com to start now.
我长大的时候,每个人都告诉我,要创造财富,就得找份工作,赚钱,然后申请房贷。
When I grew up, everyone said to me that to generate wealth, get a job, get money, then get a mortgage.
这是你能给别人的最糟糕的建议之一。
That's one of the worst pieces of advice you can give somebody.
而你的未来自我会因此变得更穷。
And your future self is gonna be poorer because of it.
但这就是每个人都在做的事啊。
But that's what everyone's doing.
因为我们没有被教导过这些知识。
Because we're not taught this stuff.
那么你认为普通人最大的理财错误是什么?
So what do you think the biggest money mistake the average person makes is?
当个储蓄者。
Being a saver.
也就是说把钱存在银行账户里?
So just having your money sat in a bank account?
没错。这等于每天都在保证自己变得更穷。
Yeah. It's a guaranteed loss to becoming poorer every single day.
但有很多方法可以提前退休并实现财务自由。这包括让人发家致富的秘诀。所以让我们来谈谈如何赚更多钱。这是终极的赚钱大师课。
But there are plenty of ways to retire early and be financially independent. And that's including secret hack that makes people fortunes. So let's talk about making more money. This is the ultimate money making masterclass.
我们有三位金融专家加入讨论。
As we are joined by three financial gurus.
他们对于积累未来财富有着非常不同的观点和方法。所以我想谈谈养老金、信用卡、租房、不良理财习惯、债务、被动收入、花钱装富。但首先,富人知道而普通人不知道的是什么呢?
With very different opinions and methods to build future wealth. So I wanna talk about pensions, credit cards, renting, bad money habits, debt, passive income, spending money to look rich. But first, what is it that rich people know that the average person doesn't know? Know?
富人更有纪律性,他们做一些小事,这些小事会复合成巨大的成果,比如投资。
Rich people are more disciplined, and they're doing little things that compound into huge results like investing.
但是,举个例子,普通美国人在Netflix上的花费比投资还多。如果我每月投资一千美元到标普500这样的指数,持续三十年,我将拥有大约190万美元。
But, for example, the average American spent more money on Netflix than they do on their investments. And if I invest a thousand dollars a month for thirty years in something like the S and P 500, I will have about $1,900,000.
或者说,在整个人类历史上,没有任何资产能像比特币那样在最短时间内创造如此多的财富。
Or there's no asset in all human history that's ever generated as much wealth in the shortest period of time than Bitcoin.
有一个问题。比特币风险很高。如果其中任何风险发生
There's one problem. Bitcoin is high risk. And if any of those risks happen
嗯,不是的。
Well, no.
别只是
Don't just
让我说完。你是希望拥有比特币,比特币,还是更想要更多的安全感?
Let me let me finish. Do you wanna have hope that you have the Bitcoin, Bitcoin, or would you rather have more security?
你可以降低风险。
You can reduce risk.
允许一个
Allow a
工作来教育他们。
job to educate them.
那么如果有人有一千美元,你会建议他们做什么?
So if someone is a thousand dollars, what would you suggest they did?
如果你想赚更多钱,我对此有不同的看法。我会
I have a different take on this if you're trying to make more money. I would
那不良的金钱习惯呢?因为从统计数据来看,金钱是美国人压力的首要来源,超过了工作、家庭和健康。
What about bad money habits? Because when you look at the stats, money is the number one source of stress for Americans top in work, family, and health.
嗯,有一个三步框架,我想详细说说。第一
Well, there's a three step framework, so I wanna get into that. Number one
请给我三十秒时间。我想说两件事。第一是衷心感谢大家每周收听我们的节目。这对我们所有人来说意义重大,这真的是一个我们从未有过、也想象不到能到达这个位置的梦想。但其次,这个梦想让我们感觉才刚刚开始。
Just give me thirty seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started.
如果你喜欢我们在这里所做的一切,请加入那24%定期收听本播客的听众,在这个应用上关注我们。我向你承诺:我会尽我所能让这个节目现在和未来都做到最好。我们会邀请你希望我对话的嘉宾,并继续保留所有你喜爱这个节目的元素。谢谢。
And And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show. Thank you.
我认为首先要从人们想知道如何赚更多钱开始。因为如果你觉得自己没有钱,储蓄和投资这类事情就显得毫无意义。我也明白这不一定正确,我认为你可以用非常小额的金钱开始投资和储蓄。但对于那些正在问这个问题的听众——如果他们现在边听边想'到底怎么赚钱?'
I think that the first place to start is people want to know how they can make more money. Because if you don't feel like you have money, saving and investing in these kinds of things appear to be pointless. I also understand that that's not necessarily true. I think you can you can start investing and saving with very small amounts of money. But for those people that are asking that question, if they're listening to this now and going, how does one make money?
比如,你知道,我有一份工作,朝九晚五,年薪3万英镑或4万美元,不管具体多少——真正该问的问题应该是:我如何赚更多钱?如果是这样,我该怎么做?
Like, you know, I've got this job. I'm working a nine to five. It's paying me £30,000 a year or $40,000 a year, whatever it might be, is the right question to be asking, how do I make more money? And if so, how do I do that?
我一直认为这是赚更多钱和存更多钱的结合,但我们先谈谈赚钱这部分。我觉得每个人都是独一无二的。对吧?你可能花了很多时间在某种我完全不了解的爱好上,比如你打板网球。
I always think it's it's a combination of making more money and also saving more money, but let's talk about the making more money piece. I think that everyone is unique in their own way. Right? You've probably spent more hours doing some sort of hobby that I have no idea about. You play paddle, for example.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我这辈子从没打过板网球。假设你是20岁的史蒂文,是个很棒的板网球手。你就可以开始将这种我没有而你具备的技能变现,也许你比我懂得多,我可以向你付费学习。即使你不是职业板网球手,我可能仍然愿意每小时支付20-25英镑请你上课。
I've never played paddle in my life. So let's say you were Steve Steven from age 20 and you're a really good paddle player. You can start to monetize this type of skill, which you have that I don't. But perhaps you know more than me, I could take lessons from you. Even if you're not, let's say, the pro paddle player that you are, I might still be willing to pay you $20.25 pounds an hour for a lesson.
对吧?就因为你天生比我优秀。所以我鼓励人们去拥抱那些让他们与众不同的特质和他们投入了大量时间的领域。我认为每个人都有与生俱来的长处。关键是发现你内在的技能,并思考如何将这些技能变现。
Right? Just because you're naturally better than I am. And so I would encourage people to to kind of lean into what makes them unique and where where they've spent a lot of their time. I think everyone has something that they're good at inherently. Figuring out what skills you have internally and how you can kind of monetize those.
你觉得呢
What what do you
,Rahul?
think, Rahul?
我认为一个隐藏的关键是:你实际上是你所处圈子的产物。投资你的人脉网络。我这么说不是指那种冷冰冰的
I think one of hidden things to do is you really are a function of who you're surrounded by. Invest in your network. And I don't mean that in a kind of cold hearted, I wanna network with these people. But just surround yourself by people who are who are also trying to push themselves to push their income, push their opportunity set, and it makes it so much easier. If you're the only one doing it and you're around a group of friends, you're the odd one out, and you're castigated for it.
找到其他志同道合的人,在这段旅程中互相帮助。所以在早期阶段,关键之一就是找到和你追求相同目标的人。这真的很有帮助。然后就是要最大限度地发挥你的技能优势,并诚实地评估自己的技能组合。不要仅仅因为你是医学博士就一定要当医生,你可以做其他事情。
Find other people who want to do the same thing and you kind of help each other in that journey. So at an early stage, that's just one of the key things is to find people who also want the same journey as you. That really helps. Then it's still about the best leverage of your skill set and being honest with what your skill set is. Just because you're a doctor doesn't mean you should be a doctor just because you've graduated, because you can do other things.
这需要慢慢摸索。虽然不容易,但通过不断尝试你会逐渐明白。我们都做过多种工作,清楚自己擅长什么、不擅长什么。然后在你更擅长的领域重点发力,这样就会奏效。
And it's figuring that out. That's not an easy bit, but you figure it over time by trying stuff. We've all done multiple jobs. And we know what we're terrible at and what we've been good at. And you've kind of over indexed on the things you're better at, and that works.
所以早期阶段,正是对自己和人脉网络进行投资的时候。这能为你打下基础,从而获得更多收入,进行更多投资。
So if early, it's the time to make bets in yourself and your network. And that gives you the foundational tools to then earn more income and then invest more.
你是否做过一些看似毫无意义的工作,但事后回想起来却让你赚到了最多的钱?我的意思是,我16到19岁时做电话销售的经历可能是我做过的最重要的事情。不仅因为我现在花大量时间讲话,而且销售是一项可迁移的技能,适用于筹集投资、说服员工加入你等各个方面。我认为没有什么比电话销售更重要了。
Was there a pointless seemingly pointless job you did that ended up in hindsight making you the most money? And what I mean by that is I think about my experience doing telesales between the age of 16 and 19 as probably the most important thing I ever did. Like, not only do I spend a lot of time talking now, but sales is a transferable skill across raising investment, persuading employees to come and join you. And I think there's nothing I did that was more important than telesales.
生活中你能学到的最好的技能就是学会如何销售。与人相处自如并能传达信息,这是你生活中最强大的工具。你所做的一切,无论是寻找人生伴侣还是做任何事,本质上都是销售。
The single best skill you can acquire in life is is to learn how to sell. To be comfortable around people and to be able to get a message across is the single most powerful tool you can have in life. Everything you do, finding a partner in life, doing anything you do is basically sales.
全都是关于人的吗?
And it's all people?
全都是关于人的。
It's all people.
所以,如果我是一个24岁或25岁的年轻人,有雄心壮志,想要成就一番大事业,你就必须找到更多收入来源。你需要有更多收入来实现它。如果我25岁,只想安稳度日,不介意我的工作,只想投资,那么你需要找到正确的投资,为你的资金建立一套系统,然后制定计划。每次拿到工资时,你知道要存多少钱,投资多少钱,然后花剩下的。因为富人和其他人之间的区别在于,富人先存钱和投资。
So if I'm this 24 year old a 25 year old and I'm ambitious, I want something big, you gotta find more income. You gotta have more income to do it. If I'm a 25 year old and I just want to be okay, I don't mind my job, I just want to invest, you know, whatever, you've got to find the right investments, you've got to have a system for your money, and then you've got to create a plan. Anytime you get paid, you know how much money you're going to save, you know how much money you're going to invest, and then you spend what's left. Because the difference between the person that becomes wealthy and everybody else is wealthy people save and invest their money first.
而其他人,尤其是在美国,我会花光所有的钱。然后我会想,我的钱都去哪儿了。嗯。如果还有剩余,我会试着存一点,也许投资,希望有一天能变富。
Everybody else, especially in America, I spend all my money. I wonder where all my money went. Mhmm. And then if there's anything left, I'll try to save and maybe invest, hopefully, I'll get rich.
嗯。对我来说,一切都围绕着你对未来自己的愿景?嗯。你知道你希望自己如何生活吗?因为这就是我们所做的。
Mhmm. For me, it's all around based around what is your vision of your future self? Mhmm. You know, how do you see yourself living? Because that is what we do.
不快乐的来源之一就是,如果你当前的状态没有朝着你未来自我想要成为的样子、你想象中的自己前进。
It's one of the sources of unhappiness is if your current state is not moving on the path of where your future self wants to be, how you imagine yourself.
那么从实践和策略上来说,他们是怎么做的?他们如何创建这个财务愿景板?他们是否需要了解某些具体数字?他们是否应该明确自己是想坐私人飞机还是廉价航空?哦,
So practically and tactically, how do they do that? How do they create this this financial vision board? Is there do they need to know certain numbers? Do they should they get clear on if they wanna be on a private jet or easy jet? Oh,
老兄。我觉得我觉得你知道。如果你必须问自己,我想坐精神航空还是私人飞机?我觉得你早就知道答案了。
man. I think I think you know. If if if you have to ask yourself, do I wanna fly on Spirit Airlines, do I wanna fly on a private jet? I think you already know that question.
但对自己保持极度清晰是否重要?因为实际上,回想我人生的大部分时间,我并不是完全清晰的。所以你最终要么追逐更多更多,
But is it important to be explicitly clear with yourself? Because, actually, if I think of most of my life, I I wasn't entirely clear. And so you either end up chasing Because more and more and
这不是物质层面的结果。通常是情感层面的结果。是的。这就是为什么很难精确指出它是什么。但你需要将自己置于那个未来自我的位置,问:那是什么感觉?
not a materialistic outcome. It's generally an emotional outcome. Yeah. And that's why it's hard to to pinpoint exactly what it is. But you need to position yourself in that future self and say, what does it feel like?
我感到安全吗?我有这种感觉吗?我有那种感觉吗?所以这是情感上的事情,而不是物质上的。
Do I feel secure? Do I feel this? Do I feel that? So it's it's an emotional thing and not a material thing.
这是很多这方面的核心吗?你谈到了情感因素,是否不在乎别人怎么看你。
Is is that central to a lot of this? You talked about emotional elements, is being okay with what other people think of you.
是的。还有另一个因素——社会压力。对吧?你可能对自己有某种愿景,比如就想要一个三居室的房子,带一小片草坪和烧烤架,这本身很好。
Yeah. That's the other thing. It's social pressure. Right? So you may have the vision of yourself, and you just say, want the the three bed house, you know, with a little strip of lawn and the barbecue, and that's great.
但你周围的人会说:你应该更努力。他们在质疑你自身的幸福感,而社会也在大规模地这样做。甚至整个媒体体系都在渲染你有多不快乐、多悲惨,以及你应该如此。这让环境变得并不轻松。
And around you, people are like, you should try harder. Yeah. So they're questioning your own sense of happiness, and society does that at scale. And then even the whole media complex is about kind of how unhappy and how miserable you are and should be. It doesn't make it an easy place.
当我们谈论情感和心理障碍时,如何让人们不仅克服害怕他人看法,还要面对许多人害怕自己的钱?数据显示,82%的美国人承认他们回避思考个人财务问题。四分之一的美国人因担心账单和可能产生的费用而回避就医。在Z世代中,67%的人以及58%的千禧一代表示,因为压力太大而避免查看银行账户,而婴儿潮一代中这一比例仅为30%。在心理健康方面,金钱是美国人的头号压力源,超过了工作、家庭和健康。
When we're talking about emotional and psychological barriers here, how do we get over people not just being scared of what other people think, but so many people are scared of their own money? When you look at the stats around avoidance, eighty two percent of Americans admit they avoid thinking about their own finances. And one in four Americans have avoided medical care because they're afraid of the the bill and thinking about how much it might cost. For Gen Zs, sixty seven percent of Gen Z and fifty eight percent of mill millennials say they avoid checking their own bank account because it's too stressful, which is compared to only thirty percent of boomers. And on in terms of mental health, money is the number one source of stress for Americans, topping work, family, and health.
36%的负债者经历临床焦虑,23%的人出现抑郁症状。所以人们确实在回避自己的财务问题。
Thirty six percent of people with debt experience clinical anxiety, and twenty three percent depression. So people avoid their own money.
很多人回避是因为金融世界充满了专业术语。是的。人们认为需要找专业人士咨询。嗯。
A lot of people avoid it because the financial world's full of jargon. Yep. You need to go to a professional for advice. That's what people think. Mhmm.
这令人望而生畏。
It's intimidating.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你觉得自己钱不够用。你会让他们失望,让自己失望,让家人失望。所以围绕这一点有一整套的心理负担。关键在于你能够学会的信心。嗯。
You don't feel like you've got enough money. You're gonna let them down, yourself down, your family down. So there's this whole kind of thing around it. It's the confidence that you can learn. Mhmm.
因为很多人会说,不行。除非你来自投资银行或是注册投资顾问之类的,否则你做不了这个。对吧。但只需要一点点信心就能说,是的,你可以
Because a lot of people say, no. No. Unless you're from an investment bank or you're an RIA or something, you can't do this. Right. But just a little bit of confidence to say, yeah, you can
做到这一点。我认为人们可以做一个简单的建议,就是弄清楚自己每月的开销是多少。追踪你三十天、六十天或九十天的支出,你会更了解自己的个人消费习惯。因为有时候我会忘记我花了30美元叫外卖,或者忘记那15或20美元的优步费用,我只是刷信用卡就抛之脑后了,并没有真正意识到。
do this. A simple tip that I think people can do is just kind of figure out how much they spend on a monthly basis. Track your expenses for thirty days, sixty days, or ninety days, and you're going to learn so much more about just your personal habits of what you do. Because sometimes I'll forget that I DoorDash something for $30 or I'll forget that $15 or $20 Uber charge, and I'll just kind of file it away because I'm swiping my credit card. I don't really I'm not aware of it.
这就像你去健身房却不知道自己的体重,那你的起点在哪里呢?所以我喜欢给人们一个起点,这样他们就能迈出一小步,开始以这种方式管理自己的财务。
It's like if you're going to the gym and you're not aware of your weight, how are you gonna where's your starting point? So you I like to give people a starting point because then they can kind of have that small step to kind of start working towards their finances in that sort of way.
根据美国银行的数据,65%的美国人完全不清楚自己上个月花了多少钱,而且60%的人严重低估了自己的月度支出。
65% of Americans have no idea what they spent in the last month, according to the US Bank, and 60% underestimate their monthly spending by a significant margin.
没错。这正是我的发现。2014年我追踪了一个月的开销,我以为自己每月只花1500美元。猜怎么着?
Right. And that's exactly what I found. I tracked my expenses for a month in 2014. I thought I was spending $1,500 a month. Guess what?
我实际花了2800美元,而我当时赚得根本没那么多。我就想,我怎么偏差了大概,嗯,70%?而且我发现,即使我向所有朋友发出这个挑战,他们中大多数人都坚持不到三个月。但我认为,只要对你花了多少钱有个大致了解,就能有所帮助。因为那意味着你会注意到收入和支出之间的差距,然后你就可以把那部分钱存起来。
I was spending $2,800 And I wasn't making that much. And I was like, how am I off by an order of magnitude of, I don't know, 70%? And I find that even like all my friends I issue this challenge to, most of them don't make it to the three months. But I think as long as you have an approximation of what you're spending, that can help. Because that means then you're going to have a little bit of a difference of what you make and what you spend, and then you can save that money.
我认为美国人的不良金钱习惯之一就是他们不储蓄。对吧?所以
And I think that's one of the bad money habits of Americans is they don't save. Right? So
这是个非常好的观点,提高自我意识确实是个实际步骤。是的。因为你需要对自己的现状有信息层面的认知,才能理解需要做什么才能达到目标。
It's a really good point, which is a a practical step to just heighten one's awareness Yeah. Because you need to have sort of informational awareness of where you're at to even understand what you need to do to get to where you want to go.
我认为需要从心态开始。你必须打好基础。要还清信用卡债务。要存一点钱。要留出一些缓冲空间,因为投资就是把多余的钱投到某个地方让它增值。
I think you need to start with the mindset. You have to build the basics. You've to get rid of the credit card debt. You've got to save a little bit of money. You've to have some breathing room because investing is all about taking the extra money that you have, throwing it somewhere to grow that money.
这里我要介绍一个三步框架,因为投资方式很多。最简单的是完全放手不管。我可以找理财顾问,把钱交给他们全权打理。如果你钱不多,可能找不到很好的顾问,但理财顾问也有缺点和成本,就是你需要支付费用。
And this is where there's a three step framework that I'll talk about, because there's a lot of ways to invest. At the very simplest is I can be completely hands off. I can work with a financial advisor. I can give them my money, and they can do everything for me. If you don't have a lot of money, you're not going get a very good advisor, but there's a con and a cost to a financial advisor, which is the amount of money you have to pay because they're going to charge a fee.
比如我每月通过理财顾问投资1000美元,找到能跑赢市场的好顾问,他们年收益11%,但我每年要支付1.5%的费用。30年后,在支付了60万美元给顾问后,我能获得180万美元。第二阶段是完全被动投资。比找顾问稍微多花点功夫,但可以直接把钱投入股市,比如标普500指数,这是股市中500家最大公司的组合。
So if I invest my money, a thousand dollars a month with a financial advisor, I get a good financial adviser who beats the market. They get 11% a year, but I have to pay one and a half percent a year. After thirty years, I'm gonna have $1,800,000 after paying $600,000 to my adviser. Stage number two is I can be a completely passive investor. So a little bit more involved than an adviser, but I can just put my money into the stock market, something like the S and P five hundred, which is a group of the 500 largest companies in the stock market.
这就像把你的钱投资到美国经济中。历史上年平均回报率为10%,意味着如果我每月投资1000美元持续30年,我将获得约190万美元。比完全放手要多花点功夫,但仍然相当被动。然后还有那些想更深入参与的人,我们称之为主动投资者。
It's kind of like investing your money into The United States economy. This has historically averaged 10% a year, which means if I invest a thousand dollars a month for thirty years, I will have about $1,900,000. A little bit more work than completely hands off, but still pretty passive. Then we have the people that want to be more involved. What we call is a active investor.
主动投资者是指那些想要自己投资的人。我不是指交易,而是真正地投资,现在我要自己做研究决定投资什么。可能我想投资房地产,可能想投资个别公司,这是用更高风险换取更高潜在回报。
And an active investor is somebody who now wants to invest their money themselves. And I don't mean trading. I mean actually investing their money, and now I'm going to be doing the research to find which investments I want to own. Maybe it's real estate that I want to own. Maybe I want to invest in individual companies, so it's more risk for more potential return.
微小的优势可以带来超额的回报。因为如果我现在得不到10%的回报,我可以获得13%的回报,你知道,我们不是在讨论200%或50%的回报。13%的年回报率意味着每月约1000美元,三十年后将增长到350万美元。所以仅仅因为一点优势,就比之前多了大约160万美元,而且你得想清楚你愿意投入多少精力。
A small edge can give you outsized return. Because if now I don't get a 10% return, I can get a 13% return, which, you know, we're not talking about 200 or 50% returns. A 13% annual return means that about $1,000 a month over thirty years is now gonna grow to 3 and a half million dollars. So about $1,600,000 more than before just with a slight edge, and you gotta figure out how involved you wanna be.
关于主动投资并自己选股与被动投资这一点,数据显示,像你说的投资标普500的被动投资者,持续跑赢大多数选股者。在二十年的时间里,超过90%的主动管理投资者(这里指的是基金)在扣除费用后表现不及标普500。那么人们应该主动投资,还是应该把钱投入标普500并保持耐心?
On this point of being an active investor and picking stocks yourself versus being a passive one, the data shows that passive investors who invest in the S and P five hundred, like you said, consistently outperform most stock pickers. Over a twenty year period, more than 90 of actively managed investors, so talking about funds there, underperformed the S and P five hundred after fees. So should people be actively investing, or should they just put the money in an S and P five hundred and be patient?
我认为大多数人不应成为主动投资者。事实上,我认为98%的美国人不应成为主动投资者。就做被动投资者吧,因为如果你不想付出努力,不愿意花时间和精力去研究,你很可能会输,而且很多人确实如此。
I say most people should not be active investors. In fact, I say 98% of America should not be active investors. Just be a passive investor because if you don't want to put in the work, if you're not willing to put in the time and the effort to research, you're probably gonna lose, and many people do.
那么,如果概率对他们不利,为什么人们还想成为主动投资者呢?
So why do people wanna be active investors if the if the probability is stacked against them?
嗯,如果你愿意付出努力,你可以获得更好的回报,这是可能的。我们确实看到有人在这样做。
Well, if you get a little bit better returns, if you're willing to put in the work, you can get better returns, and it is possible. We do see people that are doing it.
这其中是否有娱乐和乐趣的成分?绝对有。人们喜欢体育博彩和
Is there an element of fun in in entertainment? Absolutely. People like sports betting and
这就是问题所在。因为乐趣在于我喜欢研究,而不是
That's the problem. Because the fun is I like researching versus,
哦,我
oh, I
想看到我的钱明天就涨。如果我明天早上买一栋房子,下午我会去Zillow查我的房价吗?晚上我会查我的房价吗?不会,因为你知道这是我想要长期持有的东西。但是当我进入股市,因为它流动性太强,我早上买了一只股票,十五分钟后就看一次,午餐时看一次,上厕所时看一次,晚上又看一次,然后我就焦虑了,因为无论涨跌,我都变得非常情绪化。
wanna see my money go up tomorrow. If I buy a house tomorrow morning, am I gonna go into Zillow in the afternoon and check what is my house price? Am I checking in the evening what's my house price? No, because you know that this is something I want to own for the long term. Well, when I go into the stock market because it's so liquid, I buy a stock in the morning, I'm checking it fifteen minutes later, I'm checking it at lunch, I'm checking it in the bathroom, checking it the evening, and I'm getting anxiety because if it's going up or down, I'm very emotional.
而作为投资者,这种情绪控制与你投入的研究同样重要。
And that's that emotional control as an investor, which is just as important as the research that you're putting in.
你看,根本不同的是,人们的情况太糟糕了,他们大学毕业时背负着巨额债务。我们之前在镜头外讨论时看过一个统计数据:30岁拥有房贷并已婚的比例从1950年的52%下降到现在的12%。没人能负担得起任何东西。所以如果你看美国的普通千禧一代和Z世代,如果他们有一份工作,通常会有401k计划,对吧?他们有一些储蓄。
See, fundamentally differ from all of this stuff is people are so screwed, they are coming out of university with massive debts. We looked at the stat earlier off camera when we were talking about the fact that the percentage of 30 year olds who have a mortgage and are married has gone from fifty two percent in 1950 to twelve percent. Nobody can afford anything. So if you look at the average millennial in The US and a Gen Z, they generally have a four zero one if they've got a job, right? They have some sort of savings.
但他们正在承担巨大的风险。我们很多人会看着他们说,这太荒谬了。
But they're taking massive amounts of risk. A lot of us would look at them and say, this is ridiculous.
他们为什么要为任何人承担风险
Why are they taking risk for anyone
那是因为没有办法缩小购房的差距,凑齐首付,买到房子,实现他们对自己未来的愿景,无论这个愿景多么合理。为什么?因为资产成本相对于他们的收入上涨得太多了,而收入却没有同步增长,这个目标变得遥不可及。
that's Because there is no way of closing the gap between buying, getting the deposit on the house, getting into a house, realizing that future vision of themselves, however reasonable that is. Why? It's so far away because the as the cost of assets has gone up so much versus their incomes would don't go up.
你的意思是购买成本,比如买房子这样的例子?
You mean the cost of buying, like, a house, for example?
是的。或者甚至平均工资在股市中所占的百分比份额,你知道,诸如此类的事情,你花的钱买到的东西变少了。所以你未来的自己会自动变得更穷,因为你能买的房子等东西变少了。
Yes. Or even however much percentage share of the stock market the average salary does, you know, stuff like that, that you're you're getting less for your money. So your future self is automatically gonna be poorer because of it because you could buy less of a house, etcetera.
用我能听懂的方式解释一下,就像我是个傻瓜一样。比如,我就像个10岁的孩子。也许用这个杯子来举例。根据你所说的,为什么它现在价值降低了?
Explain that to me like I'm an idiot. Like, I'm a like, I'm 10 years old. And maybe in the context of this mug here. In terms of the how why is that worth less now based on what you said?
解释的方式是:钱是交换媒介,是你用来买东西的东西。如果我们都有很多钱,我们桌上都有一堆现金,而你想卖那个杯子,我们可以为那个杯子付任何价钱,因为我们有一堆现金。嗯。所以那个杯子突然就不值它应该值的10美元了。突然我们为这个杯子付150美元。
The way of explaining it is money is the medium of exchange, the thing that you buy something with. If we all have a lot of money, we've all got a stack of cash on this table, and you wanna sell that mug, we can pay anything for that mug because we've got a stack of cash. Mhmm. So that mug suddenly is worth not the $10 it's supposed to be worth. It's suddenly we're paying a $150 for the mug.
为什么?因为那钱对我们没有价值,因为我们有过剩的钱。所以当你在系统中创造过剩货币时,这就是货币贬值。这是一种错觉,好像资产的价值在上升,其实并没有。
Why? Because that money has no value to us because we've got excess money. So when you create excess money in the system, it's this debasement of currency. It's an optical illusion that the value of assets are actually going up. They're not.
你的钱的价值正在下降。这就是痛点,因为你的收入通常只随经济增长而增长,再加上你职业发展或其他什么。但那些稀缺资产,表面上却在以它们降低货币价值的幅度上涨。所以你发现的是,薪水每年增长约2%或3%。而标普500指数的成本每年上涨约12%、13%。
The value of your money is going down. And this is this pain point because your earnings only grow with economic growth generally, plus your progression of your career or whatever it may be. But those things, the scarce assets, are going up optically by the amounts they're lowering the thing. So what you find is salaries go up at about 2% or 3% a year. And the house of the cost of the S and P is about 12%, 13% up every year.
房价也差不多。黄金也差不多。
And a house price is about the same. Gold is about the same.
那是因为他们在印越来越多的钱?没错。好的。这对我来说完全说得通。所以我猜你们面前都有一大叠纸,用来记笔记。
And that's because they're printing more and more money? Correct. Okay. That makes perfect sense to me. So I'm imagining you all have a big stack of paper in front of you which you're using to take some notes on.
如果我说,我要用这个杯子换你们的一些纸,但我的团队说你们可以拥有无限的纸。这个杯子就贬值了,因为你们都可以用无数张纸来换这个杯子。
And if if I was saying, I'm gonna sell you guys this mug for some of the paper you have there, But then my team said you guys can have unlimited paper. This mug loses value because you can all just offer a gazillion sheets of paper for this mug.
嗯,它并没有贬值。只是表面上我们会给你无数张纸,而不是,你知道的,三张纸,因为我们有这么多纸。这并不重要。
Well, it doesn't lose value. It optically will give you a gazillion for it as opposed to, you know, three sheet sheets of paper because we've got so much paper. It matters not.
所以我会想,哇。就像,这个杯子值无数张纸,但实际上因为每张纸现在一文不值。
So I'll be I'll be thinking, wow. Like, this mug, it's worth a gazillion sheets of paper, but actually the because each sheet of paper is now worth nothing.
正确。
Correct.
好的。太好了。
Okay. Great.
这就是人们发现的问题:他们把资金投入401(k)退休账户,以10%的复利增长。对我们这一代人来说,是的,世界就是这样运作的,而且很棒。它曾经有效,但现在不行了。所以他们需要每年上涨50%、100%的资产,这很荒谬,但幸运的是,我们被赐予了一些。所以这有所帮助。
And this is the problem that people are finding is they put money in a four zero one k, you compound it at 10%. For my generation, yeah, that was that was how the world worked, and it was great. And it worked, and now it doesn't work. So they need assets that go up 50% a year, 100% a year, which is ridiculous, But luckily, we've been gifted a few. And so that's helped.
继续说下去。
Go on and say it.
嗯,是加密货币。简单来说,即使波动性较大,它的表现仍然优于所有其他资产。以比特币为例,自2012年以来,它每年产生约145%的回报。这是股市回报的10倍。而且这还包括了期间370%的回撤。
Well, it's crypto. Simplistically, it just outperforms all other assets, even with the excess volatility. So Bitcoin, for example, produces about since 2012, it's produced about 145 a year returns. So that's 10x the stock market. And that's including 370% drawdowns in the middle of it.
回撤指的是下跌。
A drawdown being a drop.
是的。但你会觉得自己像个傻瓜。你在亏钱。一切都要完蛋了,你知道,你你你犯了人生中最大的错误,然后它又恢复了,并且继续上涨,因为它是一个技术网络采用模型正在发生。所以它只是吸引了越来越多的人。
Yeah. But you feel like you're an idiot. You're losing money. It's all gonna go you know, you you you've made the biggest mistake in your life, and it recovers, and it keeps going because it's a it's a technological network adoption model that's happening. So it's just sucking in more and more people.
所以现在全球有6.5亿个加密货币经纪账户,比全球所有股票市场经纪账户的总和还要多。我们在世界各地都看到了这一点,因为每个人都可以购买某种东西的份额。所以,与能够购买——在这里没人能买得起第五大道的公寓不同,每个人都可以购买比特币的碎片化份额,理论上,这是一个10万美元的资产。但我们都可以投入10美元、5美元、一千美元,甚至100亿美元。
So there's now six fifty million crypto brokerage accounts in the world, which is more than all the stock market brokerage accounts added together in the world. And we're seeing it all around the world because everybody can buy a share of something. So as opposed to being able to buy nobody can buy a Fifth Avenue apartment here, everybody can buy a fractionalized share of Bitcoin, which is, in theory, a $100,000 asset. But we can all put in $10, $5, a thousand bucks, $10,000,000,000.
那让我来挑战一下。不过比特币没有任何基础。好吧,我这是在散布恐慌情绪。等等。
Let me challenge it then. So Bitcoin isn't based on anything, though. Okay. I'm being I'm being a fudder here. Hang on.
等等。这是我的工作。比特币没有任何基础。它是天空中的一个数据库,没有黄金支持,也不产生任何有价值的产品作为副产品。那么我们为什么要对比特币有信心呢?
Hang on. That's my job. Bitcoin isn't based on anything. It is a database in the sky that isn't backed by gold, or it doesn't produce any sort of valuable asset as its byproduct. So why how can we have faith in Bitcoin?
本质上,在被人剪辑之前,我这么说是在扮演魔鬼代言人,因为
It's essentially, in its essence, before someone clips me, this is I'm playing devil's advocate because
我知道
I know
他们只会把这段剪出来。本质上,很多人会说这就是个庞氏骗局
they're just gonna clip this part out. It is essentially, many would say, a Ponzi scheme
嗯哼
Mhmm.
它只有在其他人参与的情况下才会升值。如果所有人都认为它一文不值,那它就会归零。
Which is it only goes up if other people take part in it. And if everybody decides that it's not worth anything, then it's gonna go to zero.
所以所有货币都是社会共识。一切皆是。黄金也没有实际价值。
So all money is social consensus. Everything. Gold has no real value.
但我可以用黄金做张桌子啊。我可以在上面放东西,而且它不易生锈,是个好东西。
I can build a table with gold, though. I can rest some things on it, and it's a good it doesn't rust.
如果你在打造一张黄金桌子,那么如果每个人都在打造黄金桌子,它的价值就会低得多。
If you're building a table of gold, then the value is gonna be much less if everybody's building gold tables.
特朗普有。
Trump has.
我们确实有。这是真的。所以,实际上,这只是社会共识。我们人类赋予什么以价值?
We do. That's true. And so, really, it's just social consensus. What do we, as humans, ascribe value to?
但正如你提到的,145%的问题在于,比特币曾多次下跌超过70%。
But the problem with the 145%, like you mentioned, Bitcoin has fallen by 70 plus percent on multiple occasions.
嗯。
Mhmm.
如果我们回到标普500指数。很多人投资SPY,即标普500指数,但仍然亏钱。为什么?因为每当经历任何低迷时期,人们就会恐慌并抛售。如果我们看看比特币,我认为比特币是2009年开始的,如果我没记错的话。
If we let's go back to the S and P 500. A lot of people invest in the SPY, the S and P 500, and still lose money. Why? Because when we go through any downturn, people panic and they sell. And if we look at I Bitcoin's I think Bitcoin's 2009 when it started, if I'm not mistaken.
如果我们看近期的暴跌,2020年股票下跌了30%。比特币下跌了50%。2022年股票下跌了20%,标普指数下跌了约20%。比特币下跌了60%。所以在那些时候,投资标普指数的人惊慌失措,纷纷抛售。
If we look at the crashes from recent history, twenty twenty stocks fell by 30%. Bitcoin fell by 50%. Twenty twenty two stocks fell by 20 the S and P fell by about 20%. Bitcoin fell by 60%. So in those times, people who are in the S and P are freaking out, selling.
是的。但问题是这样的,这是人们不理解的风险回报比。如果你有一个时间跨度,比如说标普500指数在熊市期间的平均回撤是25%。
Yep. But here's the thing. This is the risk reward that people don't understand. If you've got a time horizon, let's say the average drawdown in the S and P during a a bear market is 25%.
回撤指的是下跌,对吧?
A drawdown being a a drop. Right?
幅度很大。没错,价格下跌。你最多只能获得每年15%的回报作为补偿。而在比特币中,同期的平均回撤约为70%,但你能获得150%的回报。
A lot. Yeah. A drop a drop in prices. You're getting compensated 15% a year returns for that at best. In Bitcoin, the average drawdown over the same period will be about 70%, but you're getting 150% return.
如果你
If you're
站在赢家这一边的话。如果我买入后能以更高价格卖出。
on the winning side, though. If I buy it and I can sell it for a higher price.
持有。只管持有
Hold it. Just hold
这才是关键。
it. That's the key.
所有这些都处于良好的趋势通道中。它们会上涨。所以任何人买入并持有足够长的时间,它都会上涨。
All of these are in a nice trend channel. They go up. So anybody can buy something and hold it long enough, it'll go up.
那么,让我们看看房地产。我们也可以对房地产说同样的话。2008年2月,房地产崩盘了。只要持有就行。但我负债太多了。
Well, what about well, let's look at housing. We can say the same thing about housing. 02/2008, housing crashed. Just hold it. I have too much debt.
我资不抵债了。银行要收走我的房子。人们正在用债务购买比特币。
I'm underwater. My bank's taking it from me. People are buying Bitcoin with debt.
是的。我的意思是,那会
Yeah. I mean, that would
2020年。
20 '20.
不建议那样做。但房地产不同,因为你可以无休止地建造更多住房。而且我们在房地产方面存在人口结构问题,使其更加复杂。人口结构问题一是现在所有人都在离开城市,二是代际差距。
Not recommend that. But housing's different because you can endlessly create more housing. And we have a demographic problem in housing that makes it more complicated. Demographic problem is, a, everyone's leaving the cities now. B, the generational gap.
也许我们买得起婴儿潮一代的房子。但我们没有足够的经济适用房给年轻人。人们正在搬迁、流动。所以我们现在在房地产领域有一个非常有趣的错配,这使得它比过去更加复杂。
Maybe we can afford the boomer houses. We don't have enough cheap housing for young people. People are relocating, moving around. So we've got a very interesting mismatch in real estate now that makes it more complicated than it used to be.
确实如此。而且我想说的是,我认为我们根本的分歧不在于加密货币是否有价值。我持有加密货币。但你我的区别在于你是全仓投入加密货币,而对我来说,这只是我投资组合中的投机性部分。
Absolutely. And and and I do wanna say, I I think the part that we fundamentally differ is not that there's value in crypto. I own crypto. But the difference between you and I is you are all in crypto. For me, it's a speculative piece of my portfolio.
所以我投资自己的企业,拥有房地产、股票、投机性资产,还有少量黄金。
So I invest in my own business. I have real estate, stocks, my speculative assets, and then a little bit of gold.
想象一下,普通听众要复制你在辉煌职业生涯中取得的成就有多困难,相比之下,只需在你的Coinbase账户、Robinhood账户里买入一样东西,然后什么也不用做。而且没有成本,不像买房,不需要处理各种琐事,也不涉及债务。
Imagine how difficult to replicate what you've achieved in your amazing career is for the average person listening to this versus buying one thing in your Coinbase account, your Robinhood account, and doing nothing. And so there's no cost. It's not like buying a house. It's not like servicing all the stuff. There's no debt involved.
什么都不需要。
There's nothing.
理论上如此,但理论不等于现实。当市场下跌时,有多少人最终亏钱?有多少人恐慌,尤其是比特币投资者?因为如果我们看看比特币的早期采用者,他们都是什么人?很多普通人只是想,我想要发财。
In theory but theory isn't reality. How many people end up losing money when things go down? How many people panic, especially with Bitcoin? Because if we look at especially the early adopters of Bitcoin, who are those people? These are the people that well, a lot a lot of the average person is, I wanna get rich.
我想要快速致富。我想赚快钱,而投资标普500指数的普通人则是想长期投资并积累财富。这是完全不同的心态。
I wanna get rich quick. It's, I wanna make money fast, versus the the average person who's buying the S and P 500, this is somebody who is, I want to invest and build wealth for the long term. It's a very different mindset.
这类投资者的平均年龄是32岁。我们说过,不,你需要为长远投资。他们永远买不起房子,所以他们对未来自我的整个愿景被彻底摧毁了。
The average investor of this is 32 years old. And we said, no. You need to invest for the long run. They're never gonna have a house. So their whole vision of their future selves is utterly destroyed.
但你看。所以你
But look. So you
说比特币在逻辑上确实应该承担更多风险。对他们来说这是合理的,因为他们没什么可失去的。
said Bitcoin logical thing to actually take more risk. It's logical for them because they've got nothing to lose.
所以你是说,比特币的年化收益率是145%。
So Bitcoin, you're saying, is 145% a year.
是的。近年来随着采用率的趋势增长,可能已降至每年100%左右。我们就按这个算方便
Yeah. And in recent years, as the trend rate of adoption grows, it's probably down to about 100% a year. Let's call it that for easy
计算。但现在让我们从实际长期角度思考这个问题。沃伦·巴菲特可以说是史上最杰出的投资者。他几十年间的年平均回报率约为19%,这使他成为多重亿万富翁。因此当我们比较世界顶级投资者20%的回报率与,嘿,
math. But now let let's think about this just from a practical long term perspective. Warren Buffett is arguably the best investor in the history of time. He has averaged about 19% a year over the course of his decades, making him a multi, multi, multi billionaire. And so when we compare a 20% return from one of the top investors in the world versus, hey.
比特币能给你每年100%的收益时,这里面确实存在某种合理性。
Bitcoin is gonna give you a 100% a year. There's there's some sense of By
什么都不用做。所以即使我错了50%,你仍然跑赢了巴菲特。客观来看,比特币自2030年以来我认为实现了约90000000%的回报。人类历史上没有任何资产能在如此短的时间内创造如此巨大的财富。而且因为它不是随机现象,它实际上是一项技术,是一种网络技术模式——随着越来越多人使用这个网络,我们看到政府购买比特币、资产管理公司购买比特币,所有人都在参与,这就是网络采用模式。
doing nothing. So even if I'm wrong by 50%, you still outperform Buffett. To put it in perspective, Bitcoin since 2030 has done, I think, it's about 90000000% returns. There's no asset in all human history that's ever generated as much wealth in the shortest period of time. And because it's not a random thing, it's actually a technology, it's a network model of technology, as more people use the network and we see with Bitcoin, governments buying it and asset management firms buying it, everybody else, you have this network adoption model.
所以它创造的是与谷歌或亚马逊相同的图表,所有这些。它只是随着时间的推移呈对数趋势上升,并伴随一些波动。因此你有一个长期牛市,这意味着随着时间的推移,价格会因可衡量、可理解的原因而上涨。而且它恰好是有史以来表现最好的资产。
And so what it creates is the same chart as Google or Amazon, all of these. It just goes up in a log trend over time with some volatility. So you've got a secular bull market, which means that over time, prices go up for measurable, understandable reasons. And it happens to be the highest performing asset of all time.
有一个问题。
There's one problem.
而且它波动很大。你完全说对了心理层面的问题,当它下跌70%时确实非常艰难。我经历过三次这样的下跌。它们很难熬。
And it's volatile. The psychological thing you're dead right about, it's very hard when it falls 70%. I've gone through three of those. They're hard.
问题是,就像房地产一样,每个人都说过房地产只会涨。那么,你如何通过他们的房地产赚钱?你只有在卖出时赚钱,或者卖出时亏钱。归根结底就是这样。你只有在卖出时才会赚钱或亏钱。
The problem is, just like with real estate, everyone has said real estate only goes up. Well, how do you make money on their real estate? You make money when you sell, or you lose money if you sell. Ultimately, this comes down to that. You make or lose money only if you sell.
那么,过程中的一切呢?如果我在那70%的暴跌期间需要卖出怎么办?因为在这些暴跌期间会发生什么?很多时候人们会失业。很多时候人们会失去收入。
Well, what about everything along the way? And what if I need to sell during that 70% crash? Because what happens during those crashes? A lot of times people lose jobs. A lot of times people lose their income.
很多时候人们在那段时间需要那笔钱,所以现在我绝望了或者恐慌了。有两件事正在发生,现在可能已经是末日了,我进去了,现在亏钱了,还以为自己能赚大钱。
A lot of times people need that money during that time, and so now I'm desperate or I'm panicking. There's there's two things happening, and now maybe it's the end, and I go in, and now I lose money, thinking that I'm gonna make all this money.
我想我能理解你对加密货币的热爱以及你100%专注于加密货币的做法。
I think I can appreciate your love for cryptocurrency and your 100% concentration in cryptocurrency.
爱说那适合所有人。对吧?对。我已经把我的,你知道的,马斯洛需求层次理论的底层需求都解决了。
Love saying that's suitable for everybody. Right? Right. I've got my the, you know, bottom of Maslow har hierarchy of needs taken care of.
我有
I've got
房子。我没有债务。你知道,对我来说很容易。我有多个收入来源可以承担这个。我不是说对每个人都这样,但我也可以理解为什么一个25岁的人也能这样做,因为他们没什么可失去的。
a house. I don't have debt. You know, it's easy for me. I've got multiple sources of income that I can take that. I'm not saying that for everybody, but I can also understand why a 25 year old can do that too because they've got nothing to lose.
但你认为如果一个25岁的人把他们全部的工资和积蓄投入比特币然后亏光了,比如说他们经历了70%的回撤,他们不也是给自己未来的生活挖了更大的坑吗?比如,也许之前还有一丝机会他们可以,你知道,买房子,但现在不行了。
But do you think that if a 25 year old puts their entire salary and savings into Bitcoin and they lose it, let's say they'd run through a 70% drawdown, aren't they just putting themselves in a bigger hole for their future as well? Like, maybe before there was a glimmer of a chance that they could You know, they buy a house, but now they can't.
金融市场中最不被理解的重要部分是时间。不仅仅是价格。是时间。所以如果你25岁,然后亏光了,我们都经历过。我们都搞砸过,不得不搬回父母家,做各种事情。
The important part of financial markets that's the least understood is time. It's not just price. It's time. So if you're 25 years old and you get wiped out, we've all done it. We've all kind of screwed up and had to move home to our parents to do whatever.
我们都经历过。你年轻时可以这样做几次,没关系的。你只是不想在
We've all done it. You can do that several times when you're young, and it's okay. You just don't wanna do it
50岁的时候这样做。
At age 50.
在50岁的时候。确实。你真的、真的不会。一般来说,你会变得更加规避风险。所以这取决于你的处境以及你有多少时间可以承担那个风险。
At age 50. Sure. You really, really don't. You become more risk averse, generally speaking. So it just depends where you are and how much time you've got to take that risk.
但现在如果
But now if
我把钱投资到比特币,或者任何东西上,很多价值是有些人所说的股权。我是以3000美元的价格开始购买比特币的。那部分就是股权。它是看不见的钱,在我看来,只是理论上的。它不是我银行账户里的实际资金。它就在那里等着我卖出,希望当我卖出时能获得利润,而不是现金流。
I'm investing my money in Bitcoin, or really anything, a lot of the value is what some people refer to as equity. It's I bought it for I started buying Bitcoin when it was $3,000 That other stuff is equity. It's invisible money, which, in my view, is theory. It's not actual money in my bank account. It's sitting there waiting for me to sell, hoping that when I go to sell, there's gonna be a profit versus cash flow.
嗯。如果我买一支支付股息的股票
Mhmm. If I buy a dividend paying stock
什么是支付股息的股票?
What's a dividend paying stock?
有些公司利润丰厚。例如,麦当劳有数十亿美元的利润。他们可以用这些现金做三件事。他们可以存钱以备不时之需。他们可以拿一部分钱再投资,开更多门店,做出更好的汉堡。
Some companies have big profits. For example, McDonald's has billions of dollars of profits. There's There three things that they can do with that cash. They can save that money for an emergency. They can take some of that money and reinvest it and open more stores and create better burgers.
或者他们可以做的第三件事,有些公司会这么做,但不是全部,就是直接把钱分给投资者,也就是股东。这叫做股息。所以这是一种现金支付,除了持有投资外什么都不用做。所以如果我买了某种东西,无论是支付股息的ETF股票,还是每月或每年往我银行账户里打钱的出租房产,那笔钱我就可以用来买食物、去度假、做点什么。让我告诉你,你是
Or the third thing that they can do, which some companies do, not all, is they can just give this money away to their investors, their shareholders. Called a dividend. So it's a cash payment for doing nothing except owning that investment. So if I buy something, whether it's the ETF stock or whatever that's paying a dividend or a rental property that's putting money in my bank account every single month or year, that's money I can use to buy food, go on a vacation, do something. Here's what let me tell you You're
拿4%的收益。谁在乎呢?
getting paid 4%. Who cares?
我在每枚3000美元时开始购买比特币。我经历了多次暴跌。我记得当比特币涨到2万美元时,那种感觉就像是,天啊,我们做到了。而当价格达到7万美元左右时,我看着这一切,心想,哇,我有我的房地产、股票、投机资产(包括加密货币和初创公司),还有那2%的黄金,现在看起来已经极度膨胀了。我需要降低这部分比例。
I started buying Bitcoin at $3,000 a coin. I went through multiple crashes. I remember when $20,000 a bitcoin was the, oh my God, we did it. And once they hit around 70,000, I looked at this and I said, wow, I have my real estate, my stocks, my speculative, which is crypto and startups, and the 2% gold, which is now looking extremely inflated. I need to lower this.
这样我就能有更多收入。所以我做了什么?我卖掉了一些比特币,买了出租房产。现在这些房产每个月都在往我的银行账户里打钱。
That way I can have some more income. So what did I do? I sold some Bitcoin. I bought rental properties. That now rental property is putting money in my bank account every single month.
比特币,纸面上是个大数字,但除非我做点什么,否则它实际上毫无意义。
The Bitcoin, it's a big number on paper, but it doesn't actually mean anything unless I do something with it.
你可以质押它吗?意思是质押加密货币并获得月收益?
Could you have staked it, which means you can stake the cryptocurrency and make a monthly yield from it?
用它来贷款。
I Get a loan against it.
那会增加风险。好吧,如果我借80%的贷款,70%的贷款... 让我们说50%的贷款,会发生什么?
Now that's adding risk. Well, what happened into if I take a 80% loan 70% loan. Let's let's 50% loan.
是的。它非常波动。所以你
Yeah. It's it's very volatile. So you
那么,假设我们申请50%的贷款,而比特币下跌了70%,这种情况确实发生过。现在我资不抵债了。怎么办?银行就会找上门来,追加保证金通知,你被迫卖出,这就变成了强制平仓
So so let's take let's take a 50% loan, and Bitcoin falls by 70%, which it has. Now I'm underwater. Now what? Now the bank comes knocking on the door, margin call, you're forced to sell, and it's a foreclosure
我的意思是
My point being
对我的比特币来说。
on my Bitcoin.
我的意思是,我并不反对。说实话,人们应该有能力在出问题时拥有现金流或现金,对吧?这确实非常重要,能够拥有长期视角,能够坦然面对回撤,能够投资初创公司,或者投资加密货币、技术等等。这很有道理。
I mean, I don't disagree. And really speaking, people should have the ability to have cash flow or cash for if things go wrong. Right? That's really a super important thing to be able to have a long term view, to be comfortable with drawdowns, to be able to invest in startups, or to to invest in crypto or technology and all of this stuff. That makes sense.
但我只是觉得4%的分红对任何人都没什么区别。
But I just don't think a dividend of 4% makes any difference to anybody.
嗯,如果你月复一月、年复一年地持续这样做,它确实有区别。
Well, it does if you do it consistently, month after month, year after year.
需要大量初始资本才能值得投入。
Need huge capital to start with to be worthwhile.
不。如果你开始为股息收入投资,我称之为十年牺牲期,这就是为什么它如此困难。
No. If if you if you start investing for dividend income I called it a decade of sacrifice, and this is why it's so hard.
是的。但如果你现在33岁,你会一直牺牲到43岁。
Yeah. But if you're 33 years old now, you'll sacrifice until you're 43.
你总会在某个时刻迎来43岁。想象一下,当你43岁时,已经有了支付那辆车、那套房子的收入,无需再为此担忧。那么,你是希望拥有比特币带来的希望,还是更想要安全感?重申一下,在我看来,比特币高风险、高潜在回报。我并不是说不要买它。
You're going to become 43 at some point. And imagine if you're 43 and now you have the income to pay for that car, to pay for the house, you don't have to worry about it. Well, do you wanna have hope that you have the Bitcoin, or would you rather have more security? Again, Bitcoin, in my perspective, high risk, high potential return. And I'm not saying don't buy it.
不。
No.
我是说,在你的投资组合中合理配置它,同时明白你堪称世界顶级的加密货币专家之一。我不是。我也不是世界股票专家,同样不是房地产专家。我可能会犯错。
I'm saying allocate it in your portfolio in a way where you understand you are arguably one of the top crypto experts in the world. I'm not. I also am not the stock expert in the world. I'm also not the real estate expert in the world. What I do is I'm probably gonna be wrong.
如果我的股票崩盘,我还有房地产。如果房地产崩盘,我还有股票。如果这些都崩盘,好吧,那只是我投机组合的一部分,我真的不在乎。如果所有东西都崩盘,我还有一些黄金。
If my stocks crash, I have my real estate. If real estate crashes, I got my stocks. Crashes, well, that's part of my speculative portfolio. I really don't care. And if everything crashes, I got some gold.
所以对我来说,我必须进行自我多元化配置,因为我知道股票会崩盘。我知道加密货币会崩盘。我知道房地产也会崩盘。
So for me, I have to diversify against myself because I know stocks crash. I know crypto crashes. I know real estate crashes.
但如果你起步时资金不多,你的策略却是富人的策略。哦,我有房子,我有股息,我有一些黄金,我还有这个那个。那是大银行的策略。
But if you're not starting with a lot of money, your your strategy is the strategy of a rich person. Oh, I've got houses, and I've got dividends, and I've got some gold, and I've got a bit of this. That's the strategy of big banks.
从所有这些开始。我根本不是从所有这些开始的。我是从一个开始的。
Start with all of those. I didn't start with all those at all. I started with one.
你大部分钱是从哪里赚来的?做企业家。你当时在做什么?承担巨大的风险。
Where did you make most of your money? Being an entrepreneur. What were you doing? Taking obscene risk.
是的。那就是我。
I did. That was me.
说实话。承担巨大的风险。
Meant to be honest. Taking obscene risk.
但如果我年收入5万美元,第一步假设我现在每年存下5000美元,7000美元。我可以选择高风险高潜在回报,或者保守策略,或者混合策略。不是每个人都应该承担所有风险,因为比特币有风险。而且,再说一次,我是对一个持有它的人说这话。政府可能会介入并改变对比特币的政策。
But if I'm making $50,000 a year, the first step let's assume now I'm putting $5,000 aside, $7,000 aside a year. I can take high risk, high potential return, or I can be conservative or a hybrid. And not everybody should be taking all the risk because there's Bitcoin has risks. And, again, I'm telling you to somebody who owns it. The government could come in and change policies on Bitcoin.
量子技术可能会改变比特币。人们可能不再关心比特币。如果其中任何一种情况发生,而我的所有资金都投入在这个高度投机性的资产上,那么承担所有风险的人就是我。
Quantum could change Bitcoin. People could stop caring about Bitcoin. And if any of those things happen and all my money is in this very speculative asset, I'm the one that's carrying all the risk.
那么如果有人有1000美元的可支配收入用于投资,汉弗莱,你会建议他们怎么做?
So if someone has $1,000 in disposable income to invest, what would you suggest they did, Humphrey?
我对1000美元的看法这些年来发生了变化。我过去常说你可以投资1000美元,但正如劳尔可能提到的,1000美元的10%收益并不算多。所以如果你把1000美元投资于标普500指数,获得10%的收益,明年你会有1100美元。那100美元不会 dramatically 改变你的生活。所以如果我有1000美元,我会投资于自己,努力提升技能,以便将来能赚更多钱。
My take on $1,000 has changed over the years. I used to say you could invest $1,000 but as Raoul probably mentioned, 10% on $1,000 is not that much. So if you invest $1,000 in the S and P five hundred, you get 10%. Next year, you'll have $1,100 That $100 is not going to change your life dramatically. So if I had a thousand dollars, I'm investing in myself, so trying to improve my skills to make more money at some point.
具体你会怎么做呢?
How exactly would you do that?
在我还在奋斗的时候,我尝试在网上学习很多课程。我努力寻找各种能在市场上应用的技能。比如我曾经花150美元参加了一个AdWords课程,学习如何操作Google AdWords,然后尝试为企业提供咨询服务,以此赚取额外的时薪收入。
When I was still coming up, I was trying to take a lot of courses online. So I tried to figure out different types of skills that I could that I could use in the marketplace. So I took a AdWords course back in the day for, like, a $150 that taught me how to do Google AdWords, and I would try to consult for for businesses out there to try to make more of an hourly income on the side.
Google AdWords,对于不了解的人来说,是谷歌的广告平台。是的。
And Google AdWords, for anyone that doesn't know, is Google's advertising platform. Yeah.
是的。现在还有TikTok广告和Facebook广告。但你知道,只要我能为其他企业提供更多价值,我就知道从经济角度来说,我能在市场上要求更高的报酬。所以类似这样的投资会很不错。
Yeah. And now there's TikTok ads and Facebook ads. But, you know, anywhere where I could be more value to another business, I knew that, economically speaking, that I could command more in the marketplace. So something with that like that would be great.
但你看现在,很明显,那就是AI。因为你看到的是利用新技术进行知识套利的机会,当时大多数人都不懂AdWords,而你作为年轻人可以填补人们的知识空白。所以现在大多数企业只要了解AI的基础知识,效率和效果就能大幅提升。是的,所以一个年轻人完全可以去学习AI课程。
But So so right now, clearly, that is AI. Because what what you saw there is like a knowledge arbitrage with a new technology where most people didn't didn't understand AdWords, and you could be the young guy bridging the gap for people's ignorance. So most businesses now would be dramatically more efficient and effective if they understood even the basics of AI. Yeah. So a a kid could take a a course in AI.
你知道最疯狂的是什么吗?如果你读完AI领域的十大畅销书,你的知识水平就能进入全球前1%。
And do you know what's crazy? If read the top 10 books on AI, you'd be in the top 1% in the world in terms of knowledge.
没错。我的意思是,只要你读过ChatGPT或者Quad的操作手册,你很可能就能成为顶尖的提示词工程师,进入前1%行列。对吧?这对企业或服务来说就是价值所在。对吧?
Yeah. I mean, if you just read the instruction manual of how ChatGPT or, you know, Quad works, you you could probably be in the top, you know, 1% of prompt engineers. Right? And that could be a that could be a value to a business or a service. Right?
所以
So
这大概就是我职业生涯的起点——我们那时18、19、20岁,正是懂社交媒体的年轻人。嗯。因为我们一直在捣鼓这些。所以我们就把它卖给公司。
That's probably where my career came from, was we were the kids, 18, 19, 20 years old, that knew social media Mhmm. Because we'd messed around with it. So we sold it to companies.
没错。
Right.
这就是我第一个事业的开始,后来很快...是的,我们发展到了数百人规模。
And that started my first business, and then there was Yeah. Soon hundreds of us.
现在有很多这类应用都是1819、20岁的年轻人开发出来的。你看到那个创建CalAI的家伙的报道了吗?CalAI是一个应用,你拍下食物的照片,然后发送给AI,它就会告诉你里面有多少卡路里。那家伙一年能赚5000万美元,或者类似这样的数字。
And there's there's a lot of these apps right now coming out from 1819, 20 year olds. Have you seen that that one profile of that guy who created CalAI? CalAI is this this app where you take a photo of your food, and then, you know, it sends it to to AI, and it tells you how many calories are in it. Well, the guy's making $50,000,000 a year, or whatever it is.
是的。说来也巧,今天早上刚看到。他一个月能赚400万美元,来自一个
And Yeah. Saw that this morning, funnily enough. $4,000,000 a month he's making from a
就像Chad基本上,显然是一个AI说唱歌手。我觉得他有一些,你知道的,独门秘方加进去。但现在很多年轻人都在利用AI试图发挥其杠杆作用,并尝试将其转化为业务。不过我想说的是,我认为凭借1000美元和Jaspreet所说的,如果你能获得不错的收入,你仍然可以开始慢慢储蓄并投资,逐步实现某种程度的退休。我认为你仍然能够退休并实现财务独立,而不必,比如说,把你一生的积蓄都押在加密货币上。
Like Chad basically, it's an AI rapper, obviously. I think he has some, you know, secret sauce that he puts into it. But a lot of a lot of kids these days are using AI to try to leverage that and and try to turn turn them into businesses. I do want to say, though, I think with $1,000 and with what Jaspreet said, I think you can still make a decent if you can make a decent income, you can start to slowly save and invest your way to some sort of semblance of retirement. I think you can still be able to retire and be financially independent without having to, let's say, bet your life savings on on crypto.
我知道我个人在100美元时买过比特币,但我已经卖了很多次,你知道,我买进卖出很多次,因为,你知道,当它涨了10倍时,你就会想,哦,就像,你知道,如果在我第一次买的时候给我10倍的回报,我就会说,是的,我随时都会拿走。对吧?
I know that I personally bought Bitcoin at a $100, but I've sold it many you know, I bought and resold it so many times because, you know, when it's up 10 x, you're like, oh, like, you know, if if you had given me a 10 x return when I first bought it, was like, yeah. I'm taking that any day of the week. Right?
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以我认为这就是为什么这么难。就像,比特币自2012年以来确实产生了145%的回报。但在2012年,没人知道怎么买。我是在某个随机的可疑网站上买的。我得到了这个,你知道,这一串来自我钱包的字符,然后我试图,你知道,我试图在帕洛阿尔托的一家咖啡馆买杯咖啡。
And so I think that's why it's so hard. It's like, Bitcoin does produce 145% returns since 2012. But in 2012, no one knew how to buy it. I bought it on some random sketchy website. I got this, like, you know, this this string of characters from my wallet, and I I try to buy, you know, I try to buy a coffee at a cafe in Palo Alto.
而我当时不知道比特币交易需要30分钟才能完成,所以我为一杯5美元的咖啡发送了两次比特币。现在记住,这是0.1个比特币。对吧?这是1万美元
And I didn't know that Bitcoin transactions took thirty minutes to go through, So I sent Bitcoin twice for a $5 coffee. Now keep in mind, this is point one Bitcoins. Right? This is 10 k
价值的比特币。比特币。是啊。这杯咖啡可真贵。
worth of Bitcoin. Bitcoin. Yeah. It's an expensive coffee.
我发了两次,结果没收到。你猜怎么着?最后还是得用借记卡付咖啡钱。所以这笔钱到底去哪儿了?
I sent it twice, and then didn't get it. And guess what? Still had to pay for the coffee with my debit card. So where do I put this one go?
花了多少,2万?我花了2万
Spent, what, 20 k on I spent 20 k
买咖啡。没错。这简直可以当本期视频的标题了。
on coffee. Yeah. That could be the title of this video.
这个这个白痴。
This this idiot.
花2万买咖啡。是啊。我真的...我汇给了帕洛阿尔托的Coupa咖啡馆,有人想去的话可以去看看。我觉得普通人从心理上讲...这太老了。当它暴跌80%时,真的很难承受。
Spent 20 k on coffee. Yeah. I literally was I I sent it to Coupa Cafe in Palo Alto, if anyone wants to go there. I think the average person, psychologically speaking It's old. It's really hard when it goes down 80%.
如果Jaspreet说你当时需要钱,你很可能就会卖掉它。
And if Jaspreet says you need money, like, at that moment, you're gonna sell it.
但你的观点是,我是说,最重要的是收入。是的。我的意思是,我们上次在播客中也谈到了这一点。就是如何用同样的技能以不同方式创造更多收入?就像我大学毕业时,我爸爸的一个朋友告诉我的故事。
But your your point about I mean, the primarily important thing is income. Yes. I mean and that and we talked about it last time I was on the podcast. It's like, how do you just leverage the same skills in different ways that you can earn more money from it? Like, the story I was told when I left university was speaking to a friend of my dad's.
他当时说,那你打算做什么?我父亲从事市场营销,我也喜欢市场营销。但当时是八十年代末,华尔街热潮正盛。我说,我在考虑要么去玛氏这样的公司做市场营销,你知道,很棒的公司,要么去伦敦金融城工作。那个人看着我说,这很简单,拉胡尔。
He was like, well, what are you gonna do? And my father was in marketing, and I liked marketing. And but it was like late eighties Wall Street thing was going on. And I'm like, well, I'm thinking about either going to work for somebody like Mars, do marketing, you know, great company, or or go and work in the city in London. And the guy looked at me and said, it's really simple, Rahul.
这两份工作本质上是一样的。你都是在做销售。一份工作你能免费吃到玛氏巧克力棒,另一份工作你能免费赚到钱。然后你意识到,哦,原来用同样的技能组合其实存在套利空间。
It's the same job. You're a salesman in both. One, you get free Mars bars, and the other, you get free money. And you realize, oh, there's actually arbitrage in what you can do with the same skill set.
嗯。我觉得有道理。所以我同意。如果是我有一千美元,我会去投资提升我的收入,读些书,做任何需要做的事,开始创业,因为这笔钱足够了。但如果我们从时间角度看,一千美元复利下来也很可观。
Mhmm. Well, I I would say there is a point. So I agree. If it was me with a thousand dollars, I'm gonna go out and invest in my income, read some books, get whatever I gotta do, go start something because that's enough. But if we look at time, a thousand dollars compounded is decent.
如果我如果回溯到1971年
If I if you go back 1971
那我怎么支付我的大学贷款和房子首付,我还想结婚生子呢?你现在告诉我要等二十年才能实现这些。
How do I pay for my college loan and my house deposit, and I wanna get married and have kids? Well, you're telling me I can't do that for another twenty years.
如果我在1971年投入一千美元到标普500指数,之后什么都不做。我继续我的工作,只投资了这一千美元,之后再没投过一分钱。今天,如果我把股息再投资,这笔钱将价值约33万美元。而我除了最初的一千美元外再没有投资过一分钱。为什么?因为从1971年到现在,标普500指数年均增长率略高于10%。
If I took a thousand dollars in 1971, I invested that into the S and P five hundred, and I did nothing else. I keep doing whatever I'm doing, my job, and I only invest a thousand dollars, I never invested another penny again. Today, that would be worth, if I reinvested my dividends, about $330,000 And I never invested another penny after the first $1,000 investment. Why? Because the S and P five hundred has grown by a little bit over 10% a year from 1971 to now.
这确实值得一提。现在想象一下,如果我每年投资一千美元,每月投资一千美元。但我不能这样谈论比特币,因为五十年前比特币还不存在。我也不能这样谈论比特币,因为二十五年前比特币也尚未问世。那么亚马逊呢?
It's something. Now imagine if I invested a thousand dollars a year, a thousand dollars a month. Now I can't say that about Bitcoin because Bitcoin didn't exist fifty years ago. I can't say that about Bitcoin because Bitcoin didn't exist twenty five years ago. And so How about Amazon?
亚马逊怎么样?
What about Amazon?
亚马逊是2000年开始交易的,或者更晚的Facebook,2012年2月。
That started trading in 2000 or even better Facebook, 02/2012.
我怎么知道?
How do I know?
难道因为出现时间短就不投资吗?它存在的时间没有黄金长?我的意思是,Facebook存在的时间甚至比比特币还短
Not invest in it because it wasn't around? It hasn't been around as long as gold? I mean, it's been Facebook has been around less than Bitcoin
亚马逊存在的时间。
has Amazon.
时间更短。
Shorter time.
创造利润。它有实实在在的价值,你能看到和感受到,因为我可以上亚马逊给自己订购一套全新的亚马逊品牌鳄梨酱套装。两小时内就能送到。
Creates a profit. It has a tangible value that you can see and feel because I can go on to Amazon and order myself Amazon brand new guacamole set. They'll be there in two hours.
直到2018年才实现首次盈利,对吧?
Make a single profit until, what, 2018?
嗯,但那不是因为他们没有创造价值,而是因为他们增长得太激进了。
Well, but that wasn't that wasn't because they weren't producing a value. It's because they were growing so aggressively.
所以你认为如果有1000美元,就应该投资标普500指数吗?
You So think if you had $1,000 you should invest it in the S and P five hundred?
我不是说你应该这么做。我认为个人理财是个性化的。如果是我,如果我有1000美元闲钱正在摸索阶段,我会去买些书,报个课程。我会想办法增加收入,回到你刚才说的。但如果我说我只想安心工作,不想折腾那些,我会一半投入标普500,一半投资个股。
Well, I'm not saying you should. I think personal finance is personal. I think if it was me, if I have 1,000 extra and I'm just trying to figure things out, I'm gonna go buy some books, I'm gonna buy a class. I'm gonna do something about how do I increase my income, going back to what you said. But if I'm saying I just want to work my job, I don't want to go out and do all that, I would do half into the S and P 500, and I would go half into individual companies.
风险比标普500高,但不像比特币那么高风险。我这样做的原因是我乐在其中。我喜欢研究的过程,而且我知道这可能带来回报,就像你提到的亚马逊、微软等公司。这里面有潜力。
So more risk than the S and P 500, not as much risk as the Bitcoin. The reason why I would do this is because this is something I enjoy. I like that research side of things, and I understand this is something that I could see returns with, like you talked about Amazon, like you talked about Microsoft and whoever. There's potential.
汉弗莱你呢?如果是10000美元,你的策略会改变吗?
And what about you, Humphrey? $10,000, does your strategy change?
我的策略可能稍微保守或传统一些。大概是90%的指数基金,跟踪标普500指数,然后10%用于投机。对于那个25岁的人,我的整体目标可能是尽快达到10万美元,因为到那时,我认为他们会有更多选择和灵活性,能够利用这笔资金去承担更多风险。
My strategy is a little probably more conservative or traditional. It's probably 90% index funds. So tracking the S and P 500 and then 10% speculative. And my whole goal for that 25 year old would probably be to get to a $100,000 as quickly as possible because at that point, I think they have more options and flexibility, and they're able to kind of use that capital to maybe take more risk after Good.
那还是需要十年时间,标普的话...好吧,八年时间。
That's still ten years with the S and P well, eight years of the
标普的话是7.84年。是的。但这也假设他们每年只投入1万零100美元。也许他们能多存点和投资一点。那样会更好。
S and P seven point eight four years. Yeah. But that also assumes that they're only doing the $1,010,000 bucks a year. Maybe they they can save and invest a little bit more. That'd be nice.
但我认为对很多美国人来说,如果能在7.84年内保证获得10万美元,我觉得很多人可能会选择这个方案。
But I think for a lot of people in America, if they can get a guaranteed $100,000 in seven point eight four years, I I think a lot of people might opt for that.
所以我同意,但我会去掉标普。
So I agree, but I'd remove the S and P.
你全投加密货币?
You do all crypto?
不,我只投纳斯达克。
No. I just do Nasdaq.
哦,是的。你做纳斯达克。
Oh, yeah. You do Nasdaq.
所以纳斯达克以18%的速度复利增长,真是
So Nasdaq compounds at 18% What a
纳斯达克是什么?
is Nasdaq?
纳斯达克指的是纳斯达克100指数,它代表了美国顶尖的科技股。我们生活在一个明天注定会比今天更数字化的世界里。因此,这些股票往往能带来最佳表现。我们讨论过的许多公司都在纳斯达克指数里。
The Nasdaq is the Nasdaq 100, which is the top technology stocks in The United States. We live in a world that tomorrow will be more digital than today, guaranteed. And so therefore, these stocks tend to generate the most performance. And we've talked about many of these names. That is all in the Nasdaq.
所以一个小套利策略是:如果你想将7.8年缩短到5年半或6年,就买入纳斯达克100指数ETF。零成本,简单。然后我建议70%配置这个,30%配置加密货币,之后你就不用操心别的了。这样就没问题。
So a little arbitrage is, if you want to shorten your seven point eight years to five and a half years, six years, buy the NASDAQ 100. It's an ETF. Zero cost, easy. And then I would say and then do 70% of that, 30% crypto, and you don't have to care about anything. You're fine.
如果你风险承受能力不同,可以调整这些比例。或者如果你更厌恶风险,就增加现金比例或其他更稳定的资产,比如黄金。不过黄金仍然受货币贬值驱动。它们都是一回事,都受相同的宏观因素驱动。
Now if you have a different risk tolerance, you can tweak those dials. Or if you are more risk averse, then you up your cash dial or or some other more stable flow, whether it's gold. Although gold is still driven by debasement of currency. They're all the same thing. They're all driven by the same macro factors.
但没错,大致是类似的思路。
But so, yeah, similar kind of idea.
纳斯达克确实很棒,凯文。我只想说一点。就像比特币一样,面对18%的波动,难点在于你必须愿意承受下跌。我想确保这一点说清楚了,因为二月份那次大跌,纳斯达克从峰值下跌了78%。
And the Nasdaq is great, Kevin. I'd just say one thing. But just like with Bitcoin, the difficult part with the 18% is you gotta be willing to go through the downturns. And I wanna make sure that that's clear because, I mean, the big drop, February. The Nasdaq fell by 78% from its peak.
同期,标普500指数下跌了40%。所以跌幅更大。更不用说,纳斯达克直到2015年才回到原有水平。整整十五年没有收益。
During that time, the S and P five hundred fell by 40%. So it's a bigger drop. Not to mention, the Nasdaq didn't get to its level until 2015. Fifteen years later of no money.
但它累计的回报仍然超过标普指数。
It has still compounded more returns than the S and P.
完全正确。如果你坚持持有 你不可能
Absolutely. If you held on You can't
在下跌中
live your life in
过日子。
the drop.
百分之百同意。
100%.
这必须是在风险调整后的回报与收益之间的比较。
It's got to be in the risk adjusted returns versus the gains.
但有多少人能坚持十五年,然后说,第一年,没什么大不了的。第二年,还行。第三年,第五年,它会涨的。第十年,它也会涨的。而且顺便说一句,第十年又经历了一次崩盘,因为
But how many people can hold on for fifteen years and say, year one, no big deal. Year two, okay. Year three, year five, it's gonna go up. Year ten, it's gonna go up. And by the way, year ten was also another crash because
你只需要进行美元成本平均法。
All you have to do is dollar cost to average.
那是什么?所以美元
What's that? So dollar
成本平均法是指,如果你还年轻,现在手头有点闲钱,比如收入略有结余,与其一次性全部投入,或者你确实这么做了——你把大笔钱投进去,比如攒了1万美元。但现在,你每月可能有500美元的自由资金想存入储蓄。这样在市场下跌时,你实际上还在持续买入。
cost averaging is if you're young and you're you've got a bit of excess cash now, you know, you've sold your income a little bit, As opposed to just chucking everything in or you do. You put your large sum in. You've saved up your $10. But now, you've got maybe $500 a month of free capital you want to put into your savings. So when you have these drawdowns, you actually keep buying.
这样一来,随着时间的推移,它会降低你的平均成本,并且你的投资组合会比市场更早创下新高。例如,在22年上一次加密货币下跌周期中,我所做的就是尽可能多地增持加密货币。因此,在我的投资组合创下新高时,市场还远未达到那个水平,因为我降低了平均入场成本。这会在长期内极大地复利你的利润。
And what happens is it lowers your average cost over time, and you get to new all time highs in your portfolio much before the market does. So for example, in the last crypto down cycle in 'twenty two, in 'twenty two, all I did was add as much as I could to my crypto. So I was at new all time highs in my portfolio well before the market was because I'd lowered my average entry. That compounds your profits over time incredibly.
这里是否也有某种心理因素,如果你承诺养成习惯,无论发生什么都坚持投入500美元,你就消除了情绪干扰。你从中移除了一部分情绪因素。
And is there something psychological there where if you commit to the habit of just putting $500 in regardless of what happens You remove emotion. You remove a bit of emotion from it.
情绪正是人们难以掌控的东西。如果你投资波动性更大的资产,首先要明白当市场下跌时你会面临更大的回撤。通常它们都是相关的,同时下跌,同时上涨。所以你会经历这些。但如果你告诉自己,这对我反而是优势,因为我可以买入更多,这就是让人财富复利增长的秘密技巧。
And the emotion is the thing that people struggle with. If you're investing in things that are more volatile, you firstly understand that you will see larger drawdowns when markets go down. Usually, they're all correlated. They all go down at the same time, all up at the same So you're going to do that. But if you tell yourself, that's an advantage for me because I can buy more, that's a secret hack that makes people fortunes compounding.
这就是沃伦·巴菲特的核心理念。
This is Warren Buffett's thing.
100%同意
100%
认同这一点。熊市中诞生的好公司比牛市中更多,因为
agree with that. More companies in a bear market than in a bull market because
我同意。是的,我100%赞同这个观点。我称之为恐慌链:恐慌导致超卖,超卖带来机会,机会创造利润。
I agree. Yeah. I I will 100% agree with that part. I call it poop. Panic leads to overselling, leads to opportunity, leads to profit.
所以我完全支持这个观点,但这需要一定程度的金融认知水平。
So I am on board with that, but that requires a specific level of financial sophistication.
不。就连你的Coinbase应用也完全可以...
No. Even your Coinbase app can just can Can
美元成本平均法。是的。但是有多少人能够忍受70%的下跌持续十五年,只为了等待最终的结果
dollar cost average. Yeah. But how many people can dollar cost average down 70% for fifteen years waiting to see that
并不是十五年下跌70%。而是在一年内下跌了70%,之后就一直反弹。年复一年,每年都在上涨
It wasn't 70% in fifteen years. It was it was 70% in one year and then rallied ever since. Every single year after year after year, it went up.
所以你说只有一年?不。在2008年崩盘之后,纳斯达克的跌幅再次超过了标普500指数
And so you had one year? Well, no. After the 2,008 crash, the Nasdaq also again crashed more than the S and P five hundred.
然后退一步看,先看看纳斯达克的回报率
And then step back and look at the returns of the Nasdaq first.
我同意。长期来看这是很好的投资,但波动性对普通人来说很难承受,他们缺乏情绪智商和金融素养来理解
I agree. Over the long term, it's a great investment, but volatility is hard for the average person who doesn't have the emotional IQ and the financial sophistication to understand
教育他们是我们的职责。是的。我们的工作是帮助人们走好这段旅程,不让他们做出损害未来的决定。我们必须帮助他们。我同意
That's our job to educate them. Yes. Our job is help people in this journey and not get them to make decisions that compromise their future. We have to help them. I agree.
而风险调整后收益和时间跨度是两个最重要的因素
And risk adjusted returns and time horizon are two of the single most important thing.
所以我的理解是,纵观历史,逆向投资者往往赚得最多。而且,从你们刚才的讨论中我还领悟到,必须建立一个消除情绪、避免决策的系统。因为正是在做决策时,你大脑的情绪中枢杏仁体会做出错误判断。我认为你们二位都在强调这种自我认知:好吧,我的大脑会恐慌。
And so what I hear I mean, through history, contrarians have made the most money. And, also, I think what the other thing that I've really pulled out from what you both were just saying there is you need to set up a system that removes emotion and requires you to not make decisions. Because it's in making decisions that your amygdala, the emotional center of your brain, is gonna do make a bad one. And it's that I think that that self awareness emerges from what you're both saying, which is, okay. My brain is going to panic.
它会崩溃或像你刚才说的那样,所以我需要一个防恐慌的系统。
It's gonna poop or whatever you were talking about there, and I need a system which is panic proof.
要知道美国表现最好的证券账户是死者的账户。这是事实,众所周知,因为他们什么都不操作。这些未被注销的非活跃账户,其收益表现超过了所有活跃交易者。
So you know that the best performing brokerage accounts in The United States are dead people. It's true. It's a known fact because they don't do anything. So they have these accounts that haven't been closed, and they're inactive. They outperform all the active people.
你的投资组合100%都是加密货币。那么当我提出那个关于1万美元的问题时——应该用1万美元做什么?你肯定认为正确答案是投入加密货币。
You are a 100% in crypto in terms of your investment portfolio. Yeah. So you must be sat here thinking that, actually, when I asked that $10,000 question, what what what would should someone do with $10,000? You must be thinking that the right answer is to put it into crypto.
对我来说,正确答案正如他所说
The right answer for me is that to his point.
但你 你 你看
But you you you look
我其实想说,但观众容易误解重点。答案是:我们被赐予了人类历史上表现最卓越的资产礼物。这不单指比特币,而是整个加密货币生态。
I I actually would say but, you know, this is it's an audience of people and people misinterpret things. Yes. The answer is we've been given the gift of the greatest performing asset the world has ever been given. That's not just Bitcoin. It's the the crypto complex.
如果你在投资顶级项目时非常谨慎,甚至可以构建一个更广泛的多元化投资组合。你持有以太坊、比特币、Solana、SUI等,这很好。它们一定会在某个时期内表现优异。这基于宏观经济因素,即我们讨论过的货币贬值。这意味着所有这些资产都会上涨一定幅度,而其中一些会表现更出色。
If you're very careful in investing in, like, top projects, you can even have a broader diversified portfolio of that. You've had Ethereum, Bitcoin, Solana, SUI, all of these things, great. They will definitely outperform for a period of time. And that's based on macroeconomic factors, which is the debasement of currency, which we've talked about. That means all of these assets go up by a certain amount, and some outperform it.
唯一能跑赢货币贬值的两种资产是纳斯达克指数和加密货币。这是一个可观察和可衡量的持续趋势。所以这不是投机性资产。它实际上是梅特卡夫定律的采用模型。比特币可以说是货币或抵押层的采用,我们称之为数字黄金,而其他加密货币则是互联网的新基础设施。
The only two assets that outperform the debasement of currency is the NASDAQ and crypto. This has been a persistent trend that is observable and measurable. So this is not a speculative asset. What it is is a Metcalfe Law adoption model. Bitcoin is the adoption of, let's say, a money or collateral layer, like digital gold, we'll call it, while the rest of crypto is the new rails for the Internet.
所以这是一项科技技术投资。它的采用速度是互联网的两倍,并且自互联网前500万个IP地址和加密货币前500万个钱包以来一直如此。采用速度是互联网的两倍,使其成为世界上有史以来采用最快的技术,除了现在正在超越它的人工智能。
So it's a tech technological investment. It is growing at twice the speed of the Internet in terms of adoption and has been since the first 5,000,000 IP addresses for the Internet and the first 5,000,000 wallets. Twice the speed of the Internet makes it the fastest adoption of any technology the world has ever seen, aside from AI now, which is now outpacing it.
如果如果二十年后我们坐在这里 是的 而你错了 是的 你觉得会发生什么?
If if we sit here in twenty years' time Yeah. And you were wrong Yeah. What happened, do you think?
嗯,首先,在投资方面,一旦你有了高确信度的赌注,你的全部工作就是质疑自己,而不是不断肯定自己。当然,你最终会通过质疑来肯定,然后你就弄明白了。如果这不是真的,会发生什么?人工智能会创造出一种新的货币体系。必须有一个竞争对手,因为我们现在处于国家博弈中。
Well, firstly, in terms of investments, you have to always once you have a high conviction bet, your entire job is to question yourself, not to keep reaffirming yourself. Sure, you end up reaffirming by questioning, and then you you figure it out. For it not to have been true, what would have happened? The AI would have had a new system of money that it created. This there has to be a competitor to this because we're now in the game of nation.
国家正在获取这个,中东国家、亚洲国家、美国想要获取它。我们还有南美国家。所以现在是国家游戏,地缘政治。这是真实的事情。但二十年后会有什么变化?
Nations are acquiring this, the Middle East nations, nations in Asia, The US wants to acquire it. And we've got South American nations. So it's now the game of nations, geopolitics. This is a real thing. But what changes in twenty years' time?
嗯,二十年后,我们将处于一个非常不同的世界。经济引擎由机器人和无限智能驱动。我们不知道经济机器如何运作。当我们进入那个世界时,我们甚至不知道货币的价值是什么。所以我之前谈过这个,经济奇点过去02/1930。
Well, in twenty years' time, we're in a very different world. The economic engine is driven by robots and infinite intelligence. We don't know how the economic machine works. We don't even know what the value of money is when we go into that world. So I've talked about this before, the economic singularity past 02/1930.
经济模式崩溃了。所以经济通常通过人口增长来衡量增长,即经济中有多少人、进入经济或出生的人口数量,以及生产力,即他们创造多少产出,然后债务增长是另一个杠杆。这里发生的情况是,整个西方世界加上日本和中国的总人口正在老龄化。因此,人口增长的速率正在缩小。他们尝试过移民,但这在政治上变得不可接受。
The economic model breaks down. So the economy generally grows by a measure of population growth, how many people are in the economy or coming into the economy or being born productivity, how much output they create and then debt growth is the other lever. What's happened here is the population of the entire Western world plus Japan plus China has been aging. So the rate of change of population growth is shrinking. They tried immigration, but that became politically unacceptable.
所以那停止了。于是你有了这个放缓的经济。GDP增长随着时间的推移一直在放缓。生产力方面,老年人生产的东西更少。所以经济产出也减少了。
So that stopped. So you've got this slowing economy. GDP growth has been slowing over time. Productivity, old people make less things. So it makes less economic output.
所以我们陷入了这个困境,然后我们还有这些债务。我们在2008年2月停止了整个引擎,我们需要偿还这些债务。所以,好吧,这就是我们所在的系统。这就是为什么我们印钞来偿还这些债务,因为我们在经济中没有产生足够的产出。但在1930年2月之后,人口这部分发生了变化。
So we've got this mess, and then we've got this debt. And we've stopped that whole engine in 02/2008, we need to service this debt. So Okay, so that's the system we're in. And this is why we're printing money to service this debt, because we're not generating enough output in the economy. But after 02/1930, this population part changes.
我们有了无限的人工人类。
We've got infinite artificial humans.
你是在说AI代理和机器人技术吗?
You're talking about AI agents and robotics?
是的。无限的。那么这对那个公式的乘数——人口增长加生产力增长加债务增长——有什么影响?它被打破了,因为你可以有20%的GDP增长,因为AI代理和机器人创造经济活动的数量大幅增加。
Yeah. Infinite. So what does that do for that that the multiplier of that formula, population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth? It breaks because you can have 20% GDP growth because you've had a huge rise in the number of AI agents creating economic activity in robots.
那么这对我作为一个普通人来说意味着什么?
And so what does that mean for for me as a average person?
对我来说,这就像是经济体系开始发生变化。我们进入了一个丰裕的世界,却不知道什么有价值。我们人类所做的就是不断调整和重塑自我,变得更加人性化——因为AI和机器人无法成为人类。所以我们必须把这一切都搞清楚。
For me, it's like the economic system starts changing. We get to this world of abundance. We don't know what has value. What we as humans do, we we we change and retool to become more humans because AI and robots can't be humans. So we have to figure all of this stuff out.
投资。我们之前讨论过这个。问题是,AGI(人工通用智能)会不会成为比我们任何人都更优秀的投资者?
Investing. We were talking about this earlier. It's like, well, does the the AGI, is that gonna be a better investor than any of us?
是的,我指的是人工通用智能。
Yes. Artificial general intelligence, I thought.
聪明。那是下一个阶段,它将比历史上任何人类都更聪明,而且我们离那个阶段非常近。在这种情况下,市场将如何运作?当企业作为代理向其他代理销售商品时,我们的角色又在哪里?我只是想说,我的毕生工作就是展望未来十年,尝试概率性地理解各种发展路径。
Smart. That's the next stage where it's smarter than any human that's ever existed, and we're very close to that. So in which case, well, how do markets work? And when businesses are agents selling stuff to other agents, where do we play a role? So all I'm saying is my job, whole life is to be to look into the future ten years out and try and probabilistically understand paths.
但到了2030年,对我来说就像一道黑暗的帷幕。
Here, I get to, like, 2030, and it's like a dark curtain.
展开剩余字幕(还有 436 条)
换个角度思考,AI实际上可能如何积极影响你的假设?
Just to flip that for a second, how could AI actually positively influence your hypothesis?
我对AI非常乐观。我认为人类会顺利度过这个阶段。经济爆发式增长时,我们可以找到将其惠及人类或社会的方式——无论我们想如何利用这些成果。我并不是悲观主义者。
I'm very positive about AI. I think humanity will come out of this just fine. I think economic growth that explodes is we can work a way of accreting it to to humans or society or whatever we wanna do with this. I'm not an am I doomer.
具体到比特币的价值和价格,人工智能如何能使其变得更加重要
Specifically on Bitcoin's value and price, how could AI make it even more important in
归根结底,人工智能需要两个输入。它需要——这基本上就是马斯洛需求层次理论的两样东西:算力和能源,而且它需要获得报酬。这些智能体不可能——你不可能让数十亿个智能体四处运行执行任务却不支付报酬。智能体会使用其他智能体。所以一个智能体会雇佣另外10个智能体来完成所有这些任务。
Well, in the end, an AI is a it requires two inputs. It requires it's it's Maslov's hierarchy of needs is basically two things, compute and energy, and it needs to be paid. These agents can't you can't build all these agents of billions of agents running around doing things without paying for them. And agents will use agents. So they will one agent will get another 10 agents to do all this task.
它们都必须获得报酬。而实现这一点的方式就是使用加密支付通道。
They're all gonna have to be paid. And the way of doing that is using crypto rails.
稳定币。
Stablecoins.
不管是稳定币还是其他形式,但整个加密支付通道,你知道,所有这些互联网新基础设施,区块链,正是其用武之地。
Whether it's stablecoins, whatever it is, but that whole crypto rail, you know, all of this new infrastructure for the Internet, the the blockchain, that's where it works.
通常,一家公司成功或失败的关键不在于其产品或战略,而在于内部人员。毕竟,'公司'一词的定义就是'一群人',世界上一些最优秀的公司很大程度上都是由A级人才构建的——因为我要告诉你一个小秘密:当你雇佣一个A级人才时,他们会继续雇佣更多A级人才,形成良性循环。真正的挑战在于找到最初那几个A级人才。
Often, the difference between a company succeeding or failing isn't down to its product or strategy. It's down to the people on the inside. After all, the definition of the word company is group of people, and some of the best companies in the world have been largely built by a players because I'll let you in on a little secret. When you hire an a player, they go on to hire more a players, and it perpetuates. The challenge is finding those first few a players.
我大部分A级人才都是在LinkedIn找到的,他们是本节目的赞助商。LinkedNet提供我在其他地方找不到的人才,这些人才具备我所需的专业技能和文化契合度。每当我付费在LinkedIn推广职位时,我都能更快且当然更好地完成招聘。数据也支持这一点:相比免费发布相同职位,你实际上能获得三倍多的合格申请人。
I found the majority of mine on LinkedIn who are a sponsor of this show. LinkedIn provides talent I could not find anywhere else, talent with the necessary skills and culture fit that I'm looking for. Whenever I've paid to promote a role on LinkedIn, I've been able to hire faster and, of course, better. The data supports this too. You'll actually get three times more qualified applicants than if you posted the same role for free.
所以如果你想打造真正伟大的东西,你可以通过访问 linkedin.com/doac 免费发布职位来开始。那就是 linkedin.com/doac,你可以在那里免费发布你的职位。当然,适用条款和条件。你们中有人记得我在这个播客中与人类学家丹尼尔·利伯曼的对话吗?那是我们观看次数最多的对话之一,而那个对话中回放最多的时刻是我谈到这个产品的时候。
So if you're trying to build something truly great, you can get started by posting a job for free by visiting linkedin.com/doac. That's linkedin.com/doac, and you can post your role for free there. Terms and conditions, of course, apply. Do any of you remember a conversation I had on this podcast with anthropologist Daniel Lieberman? It was one of our most viewed conversations of all time and the most replayed moment in that conversation was when I talked about this product.
这就是我所说的Vivo Barefoot赤足鞋,它们显著减少了支撑,给我的脚提供了它们迫切需要的强化机会。如果你从这个播客中学到了什么,那可能是我们正生活在舒适危机中,在我们生活的所有时刻,我们都在做这样的权衡:是现在更舒适但未来更不适,还是现在稍微不那么舒适,但未来更强壮健康。对我来说,这就是选择穿赤足鞋。所以如果你想开始强化你的脚和身体,请访问 vivobarefoot.com/steven,结账时使用代码 steven b 20 即可享受 20% 的折扣。还附带一百天退款保证。
These are what I call Barefoot Shoes by Vivo Barefoot, which have significantly reduced support, which gives my feet the opportunity that they desperately want to need to strengthen. If you've learned anything from this podcast, it might be that we're living in a comfort crisis and that at all times in our lives we're making this trade of whether to have more comfort now and therefore more discomfort in the future or a little bit less comfort now, but to be stronger and healthier in the future. And for me that is the choice to wear barefoot shoes. So if you wanna start strengthening your feet and your body, visit vivobarefoot.com/steven, and you'll get 20% off when you use code steven b 20 at checkout. That also comes with a one hundred day money back guarantee.
你有什么可失去的?我想问你一个问题。是的。我跑去拿手机的原因是,是的。有个人联系了我,是我童年时就认识的。
What have you got to lose? I wanted to ask you a question. Yeah. The reason I went and got my phone is because Yes. I had someone contact me that I knew from my childhood.
曾经是我最好的朋友之一。
Used to be one of my best friends.
嗯。
Mhmm.
坦白说,他妈的有十年没跟他们说过话了。给我发了一条短信,他们发的短信是:我想听听你对这个的看法,因为我...我最后对他说,听着,你问错人了。我觉得你误解了我是谁。嗨,哥们。希望你一切都好。
Frankly, not spoke to them in fucking ten years. Sent me a text message, and the text message they sent me is I wanted to get your opinion on this because I I said I ended up saying to him, listen, I'm not the guy to ask about this. I think you've misunderstood who I am. Hi, mate. I hope you're well.
我惹上了一点债务麻烦,大约4万英镑。所以不止一点麻烦。我在寻求一些建议和方向,关于也许被动收入/一条尝试努力摆脱困境的途径。有没有我应该读、看的一些资料,你可能知道的?我问他,我说,是什么类型的债务?
I got myself in a bit of trouble with some debt, about £40,000. So more than a bit of trouble. After I'm after some advice and direction in terms of maybe passive income slash an avenue to try and work my way out of it. Is there some material I should be reading, watching that you might know of? And I asked him, I said, what kind of debt is it?
他说是个人贷款和信用卡的问题,老兄。我说我需要确认这些债务有多紧急,是否造成了任何即时问题。他说其实不是特别紧急,但由于每月支出太高,这个月我的房贷已经拖欠一个月了。所以情况确实如此,但我不想继续这样下去。
And he said, personal loans and credit cards, mate. And I said, like, how I need to ascertain how urgent those debts are and if it's causing any any immediate issues. And he said, well, they're not super urgent. But as a result of the high monthly outgoings, I'm a month behind my mortgage payment this month. So it, like, is, but it's not because I don't want to keep being in that position moving forward.
目前我每月要还大约1000美元或800英镑,又申请不了合并贷款。这简直是完美风暴——我刚换了新工作,伴侣正在休产假,还有这座债务大山。已经开始影响我的家庭了。嗯。如果我还不起房贷,你知道后果的。
It's costing me circa $1,000 or £800 a month in repayments at the moment, and I can't get a consolidation loan. It's a perfect storm starting because I've just started a new job, and my partner is on maternity leave, and I have this debt mountain. It's starting to affect my family Mhmm. If I can't pay the mortgage. You know?
所以我必须改变现状,想办法解决,而你是最适合咨询的人。我当时心想:天啊。我并不是...结果一小时内他又发消息说:嘿,抱歉兄弟,如果你忙的话就当提醒一下。
So I've gotta change moving forward and figure out what to do, and you're the man to ask for advice. I was like, fuck me. I'm not and then he messaged me again within an hour and said, hey. Sorry, man. If you're busy, just wanted to nudge this.
因为我在飞机上,一小时后他又发消息:嘿,我真的需要帮助和指导,老兄。我快要走投无路了。
Then messaged again an hour later because I was on a flight and said, hey. I really need some help and direction, man. I'm quickly running out of places to turn.
他处境确实艰难——四万英镑的债务,按15%到20%的利率计算,利息就会开始失控。如果债务低于一万英镑还好管理些,但四万镑的利息会快速复利增长。既然他有房贷,甚至可能需要考虑卖房来至少控制利息支出或减少债务总额。这种情况必须尽可能削减所有开支,把所有资金都用于偿还利率最高的债务。
He's kind of in a hard spot because forty thousand pounds in debt with the interest payments of, let's say, interest rate is 15 to 20%, that starts to spiral out of control a little Like, if he was under £10,000 in in debt, it's a little bit more manageable. But at 40,000, the interest starts to compound quite quickly. So, you you said he had a mortgage. He might even have to consider moving, selling, selling the home to at least get the interest payments under control or, like, reduce that amount of debt. It's kind of the one of those situations where you just need to reduce every single expense possible and start really pouring all your money into the highest interest rate debt that he owns.
可以把所有债务按利率从高到低排序,从最高的开始处理。如果是22%的利率,就要优先清偿,因为这才是最致命的。这种债务水平下真的很困难,很多人会考虑破产来清零债务,具体取决于他的收入。我认识个服务员欠了五万美元信用卡债,因为利息都快赶上工资了根本还不清。除非能从亲友那里获得个人贷款来清偿债务,否则处境会非常艰难。
So like, you you can rank your interest rates of all your debts from highest to lowest and start start at the very top, right? If it has 22% interest rate, you want to get rid of that first because that's what's killing them. At those levels of debt, it's really tough, because I think a lot of people consider bankruptcy at that point, just to kind of clear that amount of debt, depending on what his income is. I know I've known, let's say, a waitress or server that had $50,000 in credit card debt and just unable to get over it because the interest payments were as much as their salary. So in those cases, unless you can get a personal loan from, let's say, a family member and, you know, kind of clear that debt, you're in a really tough spot.
尽量削减开支,把所有闲钱都用于偿还利率最高的债务,优先处理最高利率的部分,如果他有资产的话还可以考虑变卖一些资产。
Reduce your expenses as much as possible. Put any extra money you have towards that debt at the highest interest rate possible, the first the highest interest rate thing, and then consider selling some assets if he has assets.
破产。
Bankruptcy.
破产。
Bankruptcy.
什么时候应该考虑破产,其中的利弊权衡是什么?
When should someone consider bankruptcy, and what's the trade off?
代价是七年。我相信在美国你的信用就毁了。但实际上我认为,如果你查一下图表——前几天有人给我发了一条推特,显示美国谷歌上破产律师搜索量的趋势,这个数字一直在上升,这不是什么好事。破产有不同的类型
The trade off is seven years. I believe your credit is shot in America. So but I I believe that actually, I think if you pull up a chart someone sent me a tweet the other day of bankruptcy lawyer searches in America on Google, and it's been kind of going up and to the right, which is not a great thing. Bankruptcy, there's different types of bankruptcy
你可以
that you
申请,但我知道它通常会清除部分甚至全部债务,而你基本上需要从头开始。但因此,你会失去很多特权,比如没有信用评分。
can file for, but I do know that it usually clears some, if not all, your debt, and you basically have to start over. But as a result, you lose a lot of your privileges, like, for example, no credit score.
我读过一些统计数据——不知道你是否知道这是否属实,但我看到一个统计,大意是说人们因为与之相关的污名而避免破产。当他们观察那些确实破产的人十年间的财务表现时,发现那些破产的人通常比那些试图避免破产的人在接下来的十年里过得更好。
I've read some stat. I'm not you might know if this is true, but I read a stat that it said something to the effect that people avoid going into bankruptcy because of the stigma associated with it. When they looked at the financial performance over ten years of people that did go into bankruptcy, those that did typically were better off than those that tried to avoid it for the next So ten
是的。我不知道。那可能只是个案。我不确定。这很棘手,因为如果你有5万美元债务而年收入只有5万,确实是这样。
yeah. I don't know. That could be anecdotal. I don't know. That's tough because if you have $50,000 in debt and you make $50,000 a year, it's yeah.
从某些方面来说,破产是件好事,因为它迫使你进行危机管控。就像你的支出、你的行为,所有事情都会变得高度集中。就像你一开始提到的,人们应该如何审视自己的开支。是的,支出方面。对吧?
It's Bankruptcy in some ways is a good thing because it forces you to do crisis control. It's like your expenditure, what you're doing, what everything becomes hyper focused. Like, you you led in the beginning with about, you know, how people should look at their expense Yeah. Expenditure. Right?
没错。当你负债4万美元时,你显然没有做到这点。正确。而破产实际上会迫使你在相当长一段时间内约束自己,直到这成为史蒂夫的习惯,这就是为什么他们最终表现更好的原因——因为你养成了我们在讨论开始时谈到的那种习惯。
Yeah. When you're 40,000 in debt, you've not been doing that. Correct. And bankruptcy actually forces you to to actually discipline that for an extended period of time where it becomes a habit to Steve, and that's why they outperform in the end because you've created the habit that you talked about right in the beginning of this discussion.
是的。我刚看到这个数据。它说,这确实是金融领域一个令人不安的真相,答案往往是肯定的。那些申请破产的人长期来看比那些长期试图避免破产的人处境更好。研究表明,申请破产的人通常能清除债务,摆脱无法偿还的债务。
Yeah. So I I just found the stat here. It said, yeah, this is one of the uncomfortable truths in finance, and the answer is often yes. Those who file for bankruptcy end up in a better place long term than those who try for prolonged periods of time to avoid it. And the research shows that people who file for bankruptcy typically get their debt wiped out and cleaned, and they removing unpayable debt.
破产能带来即时的精神解脱,消除无法偿还债务的沉重压力。而那些回避破产的人往往长期处于财务压力中,这种压力会蔓延到他们的健康、人际关系和工作。简而言之,直面破产的人通常恢复得更快,最终比那些蹒跚前行、试图避免破产的人处于更强大的长期地位。
Bankruptcy can bring immediate mental relief from moving the crushing stress of unpayable debts. People who avoid it often live in chronic financial stress, which spills into their health relationships and work. So in short, those who face bankruptcy head on often recover faster and end up in a long a stronger position than those who keep limping along trying to avoid it.
我觉得正在收听、可能处于类似困境的听众最终想知道的是:如何获得解脱。破产是一个选择,但归根结底必须要有改变,而这种改变是困难的。我认为这是很多人难以谈论或理解的部分。解脱是存在的,但它伴随着严重、极端且快速的牺牲。什么意思呢?
I think somebody who's listening who may be in a similar the same situation ultimately wants to know how do I get relief. Bankruptcy is one option, but at the end of the day, there has to be change, and that change is difficult. That's the part that I think a lot of people have a hard time talking about or comprehending. There is relief, but it comes with severe, extreme, and quick sacrifice. What do I mean?
第一,在这种情况下你必须尽快削减开支。必须尽可能卖掉所有东西。我的意思是,显然工作也会受影响,但你还可能失去房子。同时还会失去其他东西。这其中伴随着很大的情感代价。
Number one, you've got to cut back your expenses as fast as possible in that situation. You have to sell as much stuff as possible. I mean, obviously works, but you also lose your house. You also lose other things along with it. There's a lot of emotional toll with it.
你有一个家庭,有孩子。我的意思是,这也是人们最终离婚的一个重要原因,所以它也会在很多方面影响你的生活。因此你必须做出极端的牺牲,比如取消Netflix订阅,不是因为每月只花15美元,而是因为普通美国人每天花超过两小时看Netflix。如果你处于那种情况,每天花两小时坐在那里看Netflix上的任何内容,你晚上怎么睡得着?你不应该每晚睡八小时。
You have a family, have a kid. I mean, it's also a big reason people end up getting a divorce, so it can also impact your life in many different ways. So you have to make extreme sacrifices, and I mean, get rid of the Netflix subscription, not because it's just costing you $15 a month, but because the average American is spending more than two hours a day watching Netflix. And if you're in that type of situation and you're spending two hours sitting there watching whatever the heck is on Netflix, how do you sleep at night? You shouldn't be sleeping eight hours a night.
你最好起床,去想办法多赚点钱。我不在乎是开Uber,也不在乎是在麦当劳工作。找些额外收入,学习如何赚更多钱。我的意思是,这听起来很残酷,但现实是,如果你想要极端的改变,没有极端的改变是不可能实现的。
You better be getting up, go and try to get some more money. I don't care if it's Uber. I don't care if you're working McDonald's. Find some extra money and learn how you can earn some more money. And, I mean, it sounds harsh, but the reality is if you want extreme change, it's not gonna happen without extreme change.
那么你觉得他能卖掉房子吗?假设他赚5万美元,根据我对他的工作和居住地等的粗略了解,这个数字可能是准确的。卖掉房子然后租公寓住?这样能释放资金吗?
So could he sell his house, do you think, that assuming he's making the 50 k, which I I think is probably accurate, having a vague understanding of his job and where he lives, etcetera, sell his house and then move in rent an apartment? Would that free up capital?
我的意思是,那会立即缓解他当前的问题。当然。
I mean, that would alleviate his current problem immediately. Sure.
他在这里说,经过一些建议指导,可能是关于被动收入——被动收入这个词我知道。觉得它
He says here, after some advice direction in terms of maybe passive income this word passive income I know. Think it's
让人抓狂。
stressing nuts.
为什么它会让你抓狂?
Why does it drive you nuts?
这就像是一个被动收入产业化综合体,我的意思是,这确实是每个千禧一代的梦想——我要获得被动收入。
It is a there's like a passive income industrialization complex that is I mean, it is literally every millennial's dream is, I'm gonna get passive income.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但它并不存在。我们谈过房产。房产是你所能想象的最不被动收入的方式。糟糕透了。每次我尝试出租房产,都有无数成本。
And it doesn't exist. We talked about property. Property is the least passive income you can imagine. It is awful. Every time I've tried to rent out property, there are so many costs.
什么都会出问题。简直没完没了。你要支付各种费用。人们却以为存在某种神奇的被动收入。一切都需要付出努力。
Everything goes wrong. It's just endless. You're paying fees. And people think there's there's there's a magic passive income. Everything comes with effort.
没有不劳而获这回事。就连抢劫也得费劲呢,明白吗?没有不付出努力或不冒风险就能赚钱的方法。所以当你负债4万英镑时,你怎么会认为被动收入能救你?
There is no such thing as returns without effort. That's but even robbery comes with effort. You know? There's there's no way of making money without effort or risking something. And so when you're $40 in debt, how on earth do you think passive income is going to rescue you?
但他在TikTok和Instagram上看到了这些。哦,我们这些三十多岁的千禧一代,现在住在里斯本,靠着房子的被动收入生活。这完全是胡说八道。这是社交媒体制造的梦幻泡影,根本不存在,也永远无法把他从4万英镑的债务中拯救出来。
But he's seen that on TikTok and, on Instagram. Oh, we're we're millennials in our in our thirties, and we're now living in in the in in Lisbon, and we've got passive income from our house. It's like it's bullshit. It's social social media dream that doesn't really exist, and that's never gonna save him from £40,000 debt.
被动收入可以存在。问题在于人们对它的认知。我正在为钱发愁。我身无分文。我有账单要付。
Passive income can exist. The perception of what it is is the problem. I am struggling with money. I have no money. I got bills to pay.
我需要被动收入。但事情不是这样运作的。
I need passive income. And that's not how it works.
事情不是这样运作的。
That's not how it works.
正确的运作方式是,你拿出额外的钱。我去工作,存钱并投资一些钱。我把想要投入两项投资的额外资金,投入到一种资产、一项投资中,这种投资可以仅仅因为拥有它就给我回报,而不需要实际工作,不需要去上班就能拥有它。现在让我问问你的房地产情况,因为我得一直回来找你,老兄。你是自己管理房地产,还是有经理人?
The way it works is you take extra money. I'm going to work and I'm saving and investing some money. I take the extra money that I want to put my two investments, and I can put it into an asset, an investment that can pay me for owning it without actually working, without going to work to own it. Now let me ask you about your real estate, because I gotta keep coming back to you, man. Did manage your real estate yourself, or did you have manager?
两种方式我都试过。我既有过管理代理,也自己管理过。
I've done both. I've had management agent and a management myself.
自己管理可能完全是一场噩梦。
Managing yourself is probably a a absolute nightmare.
那太可怕了。
That's horrific.
而通过经理人来管理可能也同样是一场噩梦,只是场景不同罢了。
And managing it with a manager was also probably a nightmare just in a different scene.
是的。而且因为你的收益率也大幅降低了。
Yeah. And because your yield is massively reduced as well.
是降低了。
It is reduced.
然后你就要权衡是选择短期租赁还是长期租赁。短期租赁存在波动性,你无法预知收益率会是多少。长期租赁又有所不同。你还得面对租客问题,他们可能很糟糕,造成的损坏也很严重。是的。
And then you take the trade off between whether you're gonna do short term lets or longer term rentals. And there's the volatility in the short term lets that you don't know what your yield's gonna be. Long term, different as well. Then you've got the tenants and how bad the tenants have been and the damage that they've done. Yep.
到最后,你会选择放弃并心想,哦,真的吗?这根本不值得这么费劲。
By the end of it, you walk away and think, oh, really? It just wasn't worth the effort.
嗯,我不同意
Well, I would disagree with
是的。我的意思是,显然有些人确实能从房地产中赚得盆满钵满。
Yeah. The other I mean, obviously, people can do really well out of property.
房地产投资的工作在于学习这个过程。当我刚开始投资房地产时,完全是一场噩梦,根本谈不上被动收入,完全不是那么回事,就是一场噩梦。刚开始时你不知道的是,物业经理有好有坏。如何找到好的物业经理?就是通过经历很多糟糕的物业经理并学习这个过程。
The work in real estate investment is learning the process. When I first started investing in real estate, it was a complete nightmare, and it was not passive, anything close to passive, it was a nightmare. What you don't know when you start is that there's a good property manager, there's also a bad property manager. How do I find good property managers? By going through a lot of bad property managers and learning that process.
这是一个痛苦的过程,非常耗时。但当你拥有合适的团队时,它可以变得极其被动。所以我投资房地产。
And that is a painful process, a very time consuming process. But when you do have the right team, it can be extremely passive. So I I invest in real estate.
我们说的是哪种类型的房产?
What kind of properties are we talking about?
独栋住宅和多户公寓。
Single family houses and multifamily apartments.
你有很多这样的房产吗?
And do you have lots of them?
不算很多,但我有相当的数量。
Not lots, but I have a decent amount.
你的投资组合中有多少比例是购买房产然后出租给家庭的?
And how much of your portfolio is in buying properties and then renting them out to families?
50%。
50%.
那么过去十年里,你们的年化回报率是怎样的?
And what are your returns been like over year over year for the last decade?
所以当我考察房产收购的回报时,我看重的是投入资金的现金回报率达到7%。在看待回报时,我不关心资产增值。我们多次讨论过这一点:如果我花10万美元买下一套房子,后来涨到20万美元,我并不在意。我收购房地产的目标不是为了转手获利,而是为了持续增长每月产生的现金流——
So the way I look at returns when I look to acquire a property is I want 7% cash on cash on the money that I put in. So when I look at return, I don't care about equity. We talked about this kind of a lot, that if I buy a house for, let's just call it $100,000 and it goes up to $200,000 I don't care. My goal when I acquire real estate is not to sell it and flip it for a profit. My goal is to grow the cash flow that I'm generating month after month after
月租金收入。
month rental payments.
来自租金收入。
From rental payments.
但这确实很困难,因为像我这样没有太多房产租赁经验的人,搞砸的可能性——绝对很高。
It's really difficult, though, because if I as someone that hasn't done a lot of property rentals and stuff like that, the chance that I'm gonna fuck up Absolutely. Is high.
我就是那种搞砸次数多到数不清的人。这让我失眠无数次,承受了巨大压力。
And I'm one of those people that probably screwed up more than more than I can count. It just cost me a lot of sleep, cost me a lot of stress.
所以你必须成为这方面的专家才行。
So you have to kind of be an expert.
你不必成为专家,但你必须非常消极。一开始,对吧,在最初的几年里,那是极其痛苦的。但如今,当我去收购一处房产时,我会像研究股票或其他任何我想做的事情一样研究房产。我会做功课去研究房产。在当今的经济环境下,要找到那样的回报要困难得多,但并非不可能。
You don't have to be an expert, but you gotta be really negative. In the beginning, right, for the first number of years, it was extremely painful. But today, when I go and I acquire a property, I will look for the property just like I do research on a stock or whatever I want to do. I do the work to research a property. In today's economy, it's much harder, not impossible, to find those returns.
收购房产,把钥匙交给物业经理,给他们设定目标,现在我负责监督经理,因为我有了一个团队,这是一项业务。
Acquire the property, hand over the keys to the property manager, give them the goals, and now I oversee the manager because I have a team now that is It's a business.
这是一项业务。就像创办初创公司一样。
It's a business. It's like starting startup.
但这不像创办初创公司。为什么?因为当我创办我的公司时,我在公司里工作,投入大量时间。所以我会见我的员工,主持会议。
But it's not like starting a startup. Why? Because starting a startup when I work in my company, I am working at my company, and I work a lot of hours. So I'm meeting with my employees. I'm leading the meetings.
我提出想法,引领愿景。而做这个,我收购,我交出钥匙,我已经设定了框架,现在你负责执行。
I'm coming up with ideas. I'm leading the vision. With this, I acquire, I hand over the keys, I've already set the framework, and now you are doing the execution.
那是一个成熟的企业。我的公司在英国现在有几百号人,对吧
That's a mature business. With my company, there's hundreds of people in The UK right
那个正在创办初创公司的人。
the one that's starting that startup.
我是创始人。
I was the founder.
那现在你做了什么?你招了更多员工来实现这个目标。
And now what have you done? You've acquired more employees to get there.
这正是你在物业管理方面所做的。
Which is what you did with your property management.
不过创业公司处理起来要困难得多。一家初创公司需要发展到多大,才能取代你作为CEO来支付员工薪水、赚钱,然后再聘请一位新CEO
Much harder to deal with a startup, though. How big does a startup have to be in order to be able to displace you as a CEO to pay for the staff, to make the money, and then to hire a new CEO
并引领它发展?这要看情况。我的朋友阿什,上周刚和我在洛杉矶,他的初创公司只有四个人。他现在就在洛杉矶,在我洛杉矶的房子里,和我的女朋友以及我另一个还在那里的好朋友在一起,我看到他正在泡热水浴缸。我知道是因为每天同一时间他都会去泡热水浴缸,然后他们去徒步,我女朋友会发照片给我。
and to lead it the way? Depends. My friend's my friend, Ash, who was just with me last week in LA, has four people in his start up. He's out in LA right now in my house in LA with my girlfriend and my other best friend who's still there, and I watched he's in the hot tub right now. I know that because every day at the same time he goes in the hot tub, then and they go for this hike, and my girlfriend sends me photos.
他所做的是组建了一个四人团队。他们在LinkedIn上为人们做个人品牌打造,并在英国为他运营业务。他现在正和我女朋友在山上呢。这太棒了。
What he's done is he set up his team of four people. They do personal branding on LinkedIn for people, and they're running it back for him in The UK. He's up in bloody the mountain with my girlfriend right now. That's beautiful.
但有多少初创公司做不到这一点呢?
But how many startups don't do it there?
不。但我说的是创业。别跟我扯这个。我当时想,哦,那不过是一门生意罢了。
No. But I'm saying start up business. Don't get it to me. I was like, oh, that's just a it's just a business.
就是一门生意。
Is a business.
需要经历陡峭的学习曲线来培养专业知识,然后建立体系使其可持续运作。
A steep learning curve to develop expertise, and then you put systems in place to make it sustainable.
但这些体系某种程度上是预设好的——你需要出租房产,需要找个优秀的经理人来物色好租客,他们得支付账单。这不像创业需要我创新构思,不需要从零开始绘制蓝图。我是去获取人们已有需求且现存的资产,然后通过让他人居住或使用来发挥其效用,再由团队负责维护。
But it it the systems are kind of preestablished where you need to rent it out, need a good manager who's got to find a good tenant, they've to pay the bills. And it's not like a startup where I have to innovate and create an idea. I don't have to go out and build the blueprint. I am going out, I'm acquiring an asset that people already need that's already existing, and then I'm going to put used to it by having somebody live there or use it, and then there's a team just maintaining it.
那么你如何看待被动收入?它真实可行吗?具体到住房这一点:你是否建议人们购买租赁房产,通过收取租金作为收入来源?
So what do you think then in terms of passive income? And is it real? But specifically, let's do this point of housing. Do you advise people to buy rental properties and then generate rental fees from them as a source of income?
刚才你们也听到Jasperated说这需要付出多少努力了。所以我通常不建议人们进入这个行业,正是因为其陡峭的学习曲线。不是每个人都适合做这个,也不是每个人都有资本。如果你只是想入门并实际赚点钱,我认为股市是流动性最强、最易上手的领域。我个人租房住,并计划继续租房,同时将可能用于还贷的差额资金投入投资市场。
Well, you just heard Jasperated how much work it would take. So I generally don't advise people to get into that business just because of the steep learning curve. And not everyone is built for that, and not everyone has capital for that. So if you were just trying to get started and actually make some money, I just think the stock market is the most liquid and easiest place to get started. I personally rent, and I I plan on renting and just instead investing the difference of what my mortgage payment might be in my my rent.
我觉得在沿海地区,比如旧金山、纽约,迈阿密也算,租房投资可能是更合理的选择。
I think in on the coasts, like San Francisco, New York, I think Miami, that might actually be the more reasonable thing to do.
我昨天刚读了一篇《纽约时报》的文章,说美国现在租房住的百万富翁比以往任何时候都多,从2019年到2023年2月期间数量增长了三倍。短短几年间,百万富翁们选择租房的比例达到了历史新高。这是怎么回事?
I was reading a New York Times article that just came out yesterday, and it said more millionaires than ever are renting in The United States, and that it's tripled between 2019 and 02/2023. So in just a couple of years, millionaires are choosing to rent more than ever before. What's going on?
我猜很多百万富翁可能住在沿海地区,因为他们投资较多或有高薪工作,在旧金山、西雅图、纽约、洛杉矶这些地方买房对他们来说可能有点负担不起。
My guess would be a lot of the millionaires are probably living on the coast because they invest a lot or they have higher paying jobs, and maybe it's slightly unaffordable for them to buy a house in, say, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Los Angeles.
《纽约时报》的文章中提到,他们选择的是灵活性和流动性而非所有权,不想被房产拥有的各种麻烦事困扰,包括支付房地产税和保险费,尤其是在佛罗里达和加州这样的市场,自然灾害频发。
In the New York Times article, it says they're choosing flexibility and liquidity over ownership, and they don't want to be bothered with the inconveniences of homeownership, which includes paying a real estate tax and insurance, especially in markets like Florida and California, where we're seeing a lot of natural catastrophes.
没错。美国是个特别的市场,因为持有房地产要交很高的房产税。
Yeah. So The US is a peculiar market because there's this high real estate tax in owning real estate.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以你的收益一直在被这些税费削减。不管是1.5%还是2%,总之有这笔支出。此外还有其他房地产税。利率一直很高,已经持续一段时间了。
So all the time, your returns are being reduced by that you pay. So whether it's like 1.5% or two percent, whatever the number is, there's that. And then there's the other real estate taxes that come on top of it. Interest rates have been high. They've been high for a while now.
所以很多人仅仅因为利息支付就被市场拒之门外。但现在,由于房贷还款的存在,与租房的区别在于很多房东不需要覆盖房贷成本,因为他们已经全款拥有房产,所以你能获得更便宜的租金。这其实与价格有关。美国经济在普通民众层面还没有特别强劲,华尔街表现很好,但普通百姓的生活并非如此。
So a lot of people have just been priced out of the market just in interest payments. But now, because mortgage payments are here, the difference is actually with the rental is a lot of rental people aren't trying to cover mortgage costs because they own the property outright, so you get cheaper rates. So it's to do with price. The US economy has not been super strong yet at Main Street level. Wall Street's had a great period of time, but Main Street hasn't.
所以人们还没有多余的收益。我认为这是其中一个因素,但可能也是一个更大的趋势。
So people don't have excess earnings yet. So I think it's a function of that, but it's probably a larger trend as well.
而且我认为还需要了解机会在哪里。我的意思是,租房有很多灵活性。比如,我最终在2025年买了房子,在此之前我一直是租房的。
And I think also it's understanding what the opportunities are. I mean, there's a lot of flexibility with renting. I mean, I finally bought a house in 2025. I've been renting before this.
所以你今年买了第一套房产,是和家人一起住的吗?
So you bought your first property to live in with your family this year?
对,是的。我自己住的房子是2025年买的。
To from yes. Me to live in was 2025.
为什么没有早点买呢?
Why didn't you do it sooner?
嗯,因为租房的时候,我可以把资金用来购买其他租赁房产,或者进行其他投资。所以对我来说,把这些钱用在其他地方更划算。
Well, because when I was renting, I could take the capital and buy other rental properties, buy other investments. So it was it made more sense for me to put that money to work somewhere else.
那么,把买房作为积累财富的手段是个糟糕的主意吗?
So is buying a property as a means to generate wealth a terrible idea?
作为一种为自己购置居住之所的手段
As a means to generate to buy for yourself to live in
或者说...嗯,但你知道,我成长过程中,所有人都告诉我:先赚钱,找份工作,然后申请房贷。所以,大家基本上都是这么做的。
or to Well, but, know, when you when I grew up, everyone said to me that you get money, get a job, then you get a mortgage. And so, like, that's what you did.
这简直是能给人最糟糕的建议之一
That's one of the worst pieces of advice you can give somebody
但这就是大多数人的做法。现在绝大多数人依然如此。我之所以知道,是因为我那些没有像我一样从哥哥、理财顾问和会计师那里获得财务建议的朋友们,他们有了点钱后的第一件事就是去申请房贷。因为他们父母就是这么做的,历来如此。
But that's what everyone's doing. That's still what the vast majority of people are doing. And I know that because I look at I look at my friends that don't have the same financial advice that I have from, like, my brother and my financial advisers, my accountants. And the first thing they do when they get a bit of money is they go and get a mortgage. And that's because that's what their parents did, and that's what everyone's always done.
拉胡尔,你觉得这样做明智吗?
Is that a good idea, Rahul?
既是也不是。更确切地说不是。考虑到如今的经济环境,别忘了,我24、25岁时在投行工作,当时收入并非最高,只是个25岁的年轻人。
Yes and no. No. I think these days, with how the economy's being set up, don't forget, when I was 24, 25, I was working in an investment bank. I wasn't the highest paid guy there. I was a 25 year old.
在伦敦买我的第一套公寓时,房价是我收入的3.5倍。而现在同等公寓与同等收入的比率是12倍。所以如今租房更合理,你不如去投资。购买所有你认为能带来回报的东西。但自住房产不是投资,永远都不是。
And to buy my first flat in London was three and a half times my income. That equivalent flat and the equivalent income is 12 times. So rent makes much more sense now, and you might as well invest. Buy all the stuff that you think will drive returns. But a house, a primary house, is not an investment, never will be.
因为一旦你买了它,你就不会卖掉它。你不会实现那份资产。也许你的孩子会,如果你有孩子的话。所以它不算投资,但它可以是对你未来的投资。
Because once you buy it, you don't sell it. You don't realize that equity. Maybe your kids do if you've got kids. So it's not an investment, but it can be an investment in your future.
但这里好像有些视觉错觉,因为当我考虑租房时,我会想,嗯,那笔钱,我再也见不到了。但买房的话,我是在往里付钱,所以就像我把钱存进储蓄罐一样。所以,逻辑上,租房当然是浪费钱。钱给了别人,再也见不到了。
But there's, like, some optical illusion going on here because when I think about renting, I go, well, that money, I never see it again. But with buying a house, I'm paying into it, so it's like me depositing the money in a piggy bank. So, logically, of course, renting is wasting money. It goes to someone else and never see it again.
但这并不完全正确。如果你今天出去,我买一栋50万美元的房子。我付20%的首付。所以我付了10万美元首付。我贷款40万美元。
But that's not exactly true. If you go out today, I buy a half a million dollar house. I put 20% down. So I put a $100,000 down. I finance $400,000.
我拿到6.5%的抵押贷款。三十年,我的月供是2500美元。现在我在做什么?我不是在租房。我不是在把钱给我的房东。
I get a 6.5% mortgage. Thirty years, my mortgage payment is $2,500 a month. Now what am I doing? I'm not renting. I'm not giving money to my landlord.
我正在积累我的房产资产。但银行也懂同样的游戏。他们让你的抵押贷款前置加载。这意味着什么?当我支付2500美元时,并不是12.5美元用于偿还本金以积累房屋资产,12.5美元用于支付利息。
I'm building equity in my property. But banks also understand the same game. They front load your mortgage. What does that mean? When I pay $2,500 it's not $12.50 dollars going to principal to build equity in my house and $12.50 dollars for interest.
本金是什么?是为你自己买回房子。不是一半一半。几乎全是利息。事实上,如果你今天以6.5%的抵押贷款利率买下那栋50万美元的房子,付20%的首付,在抵押贷款的头二十年里,超过一半的还款将直接作为利息进入银行家的口袋。
It's Principal being? Buying your house back for yourself. It's not half and half. It's almost all interest. In fact, if you go on and buy the half a million dollar house today at a six and a half percent mortgage, 20% down, for the first twenty years of that mortgage, more than half of that payment is going to go directly to your banker's pocket with interest.
直到第二十一年,你2500美元月供的一半才会用于积累房屋资产。所以起初全是利息,零资产,然后慢慢这样变化。需要二十年才能达到那个点。而在这个过程中,对很多人(不是所有人)来说会发生的是,利率下降了,我需要一些额外的钱,那我怎么办?我重新贷款。
It's not until year twenty one that half of your $2,500 payment is going to go towards equity in your house. So it's all interest, zero equity, and then slowly moves like this. It takes twenty years to get there. And then what happens along the way for a lot of people, not everybody, for a lot of people, is along the way, interest rates go down, I need some extra money, so what do I do? I refinance.
一旦我进行再融资,那个分期偿还过程就重新开始了,所以现在我再次支付所有这些利息,而我真正积累的资产净值并不在那里。这就是为什么我说买房不是坏事。我认为如果你买房很棒,但不要像你说的那样对待你的房子。不要把你的房子当作投资。把它当作一项开销。
As soon as I refinance, that amortization starts all over again, and so now I'm paying all this interest again, and my real equity that I'm building is not there. This is why I say it's not bad to buy a house. I think it's great if you buy a house, but don't treat your house like you said. Don't treat your house like an investment. Treat it like an expense.
买房是因为你能负担得起,因为你想要,因为你准备好了,但不是因为你要积累财富。
Buy because you can afford it, because you want it, because you're ready, but not because you're going build wealth.
你怎么看?
What do think?
我同意他们俩的看法。我认为房子是一种不容易出售的资产,所以这也是件好事。比如,你有10万美元可以投入股市,或者10万美元用作首付,而你知道自己是一个非常情绪化的人,股市一跌2%你就卖出,那可能还是买房更好,对吧?你不能真的划两下就把房子卖了。但就投资而言,它通常对人们来说远不止是投资。
I agree with both their takes. I think that a home is an asset that you can't sell very easily, so that's also a good thing. Like, you have $100,000 to put into stocks or $100,000 to put on a down payment, and you know you were just such an emotional person that the moment that the stock market goes down 2% you're selling, probably better to buy a house, right? You can't really sell your house in the tap of two swipes. But in terms of an investment, it's like usually it's much more than investment to people.
他们买房是出于心理原因或情感原因,或是为了安全感。所以我想说,如果你对买房感兴趣并且你能负担得起,那就太好了。是的。
They they buy them for psychological reason or emotional reasons or the the sense of security. So I would just say, like, if you're interested in buying a house and you you can afford it, then that that's great. Yeah.
我们实际上来看看最好的情况。就像,我想你提到过这个。我花50万美元买了一套房子。它升值到了一百万美元。天哪。
And let's actually go with the best case scenario. So like, I think you were mentioning this. I buy a house for, let's call it half a million dollars. It goes up in value to a million dollars. Oh my god.
我发财了。对吧?嗯,虽然这是看不见的,但没错,我可以进行现金再融资,但现在我得支付所有那些费用。但问题来了:你现在拥有一套百万美元的房子。
I'm rich. Right? Well, it's invisible, but but yeah, I could take the cash out refinance, but now I had to pay all that. But here's the problem. You now own a million dollar house.
这意味着什么?你必须为一栋价值百万美元的房子缴纳房产税,所以你得支付更多的房产税。你还得为这栋百万美元的房子购买保险。现在如果你把这栋房子传给子女,很好,他们得到了一栋百万美元的房子。但如果他们负担不起百万美元房子的房产税或保险,那他们只能卖掉它。
What does that mean? You have to pay property taxes on a million dollar house, so you've got to pay a lot more property taxes. You have to pay insurance on a million dollar house. And so now if you pass this house down to your kids, great, they got a million dollar house. But if they can't afford the property taxes or the insurance on a million dollar house, now they have to sell it.
保险是这些真正隐藏的成本之一,你意识不到,尤其是在飓风多发地区,比如德克萨斯或俄克拉荷马等地,突然之间,除了要交的税之外,你的房屋保险费用也高得令人望而却步。人们不会想到
Insurance is one of these really hidden costs that you don't realize, particularly if you're in a hurricane area like Texas or Oklahoma or something, suddenly your house insurance costs are prohibitive on top of the taxes you pay. People don't think about
这一点。
that.
所以,Jasper,你是说通过比特币。对吧?全部投入
So, Jasper, you're saying by Bitcoin. Right? Go all
进去。你离拥有一切只差一枚币。零成本。
in. You're 1 coin away from everything. Zero cost.
他们刚刚点击了那个。剪辑了那个。是的。它已经病毒式传播了。但在这张桌子上没有人会采纳买房作为财富创造策略。
They've just clicked that. Clipped that. Yeah. It's gone viral. But no no one at this table would adopt buying a house as a wealth creation strategy.
不。在那之前你们都会做很多事情。
No. You would all do many things before then.
是的。没错。
Yeah. Correct.
那是不是几乎排在清单的最末尾?
Would that be almost at the bottom of the list of things?
这取决于我们讨论的是哪个年龄段的人群。如果你大概嗯…38岁左右嗯…有了孩子,已经还清部分学生贷款,经济状况稳定。这种保障性支出没问题,但它不算投资。
It's part of it's age cohort who we're talking about. If you're kind of like Mhmm. 38 years old Mhmm. You've got a kid, you kinda cleared up some of your student debt payments, you're okay. That security thing is fine, but it's not investment.
任何更年轻的人,根本不需要考虑。
Anybody younger, just no.
如果纯粹讨论美元投资回报率,我可能会把它排在更靠后的位置
Is it If you're just talking pure dollar investment returns, I probably would rank it lower on the list
确实如此。
for sure.
对了。存在所谓的好债务吗?因为一开始你说要清理债务。到底存不存在良性债务?
Yeah. Is there any such thing as good debt? Because I remember at the start, you said clear up your debts. Is there is there a good debt?
人们通过债务赚很多钱,但人们也因债务亏很多钱。
People make a lot of money on debt, but people lose a lot of money on debt.
我只是尽量完全避开债务。是的。我的意思是,我认为确实存在所谓的“良性债务”,如果它能为你所用,让你能利用那笔钱赚更多钱。但很多人,你知道,杠杆伴随着很大风险。
I just try to stay away from debt altogether. Yeah. I mean, I think that yeah. There is such a thing as, good debt if it's working for you and you're able to to leverage that money to make more money. But a lot of people, you know, with leverage gets comes a lot of risk.
而且我知道很多人被彻底击垮,就是因为他们承担了所谓的“良性债务”,对吧?
And I know a lot people got wiped out because they took on quote unquote good debt, right?
什么是杠杆?
What's leverage?
杠杆就是,举个例子,在贾斯普里特的例子里,你付20%的首付买房子,剩下的80%办理抵押贷款。这在技术上就是利用了杠杆,因为你用自己拥有的10万美元,现在却买得起价值50万美元的资产。如果你的房子从50万美元涨到100万美元,你获得了50万美元的收益,但你只投入了10万美元。所以从技术上讲,你的利润或回报率要高得多。这是通过你所承担的债务来实现的杠杆效应。
Leverage is so for example, in Jaspreet's example, you put 20% down on a house, and you take an 80%, the rest of it, as a mortgage. That's technically leveraging your money because you're taking the 100 ks that you have, and now you're affording an asset that's worth $500,000 If your home goes from $500,000 to $1,000,000 you have a $500,000 gain, but you only put in a $100,000. So technically, your profit or your return percentage is much higher. It was leveraged by that debt that you carried.
嗯,我觉得大多数人并不知道他们可以对自己的加密货币加杠杆。
Well, I don't think most people know that they can leverage their crypto.
那是
That's
是的。你可以用它来抵押借款。
right. You can borrow against it.
所以任何人都可以。你不需要去银行。
So anyone can. You don't need to go to a bank.
不需要。你可以在所谓的去中心化金融中即时完成。或者有很多公司提供这种服务,你可以用资产抵押借款。你甚至可以用数字艺术品来抵押。我是个狂热的数字艺术收藏家。
No. You can do it instantaneously in what's known as decentralized finance. Or there's there's a whole bunch of companies that do this, where you can borrow against your assets. You can even do it against digital art. I'm a huge digital art collector.
很像艺术品市场,你实际上可以去根据艺术品的价值借款,可能是价值的50%。
Much like the art market, you can actually go and borrow against the value of the art, maybe 50% against the value.
让我用超级简单的方式解释一下。如果我是作为一个从未买过比特币、正在考虑可能买一个,但又希望有办法获得一点现金的人。
Let me explain this to me super simply. If I as if for someone that's, like, never even bought Bitcoin before and is thinking about potentially buying one, but they would also like some way to have a little bit of cash.
听着。我不喜欢这样。好吧。我理解为什么,但问题是你有一个这样的资产。它波动很大。
Look. I don't like it. Okay. I understand why, but the issue is you've got an asset that does this. It's volatile.
它非常不稳定,而你正在用它抵押借入一定金额。你不知道它是否会跌破那个价值导致被清算,那样你就失去了所有的比特币。整个游戏的关键是,如果你处于长期牛市,只要不失去对你代币的控制。一直持有你的比特币,而你为了额外的5%或10%收益冒着搞砸的风险。图什么呢?
It's very volatile, And you're borrowing a certain amount against it. And you don't know whether it falls below that value and you get liquidated, then you've lost all of your Bitcoin. The whole game is if you're in a secular bull market, just don't lose control of your tokens. Own own your Bitcoin all the way through, and you have a risk of screwing that up for the extra 5% income or 10% income. At what?
在以太坊中,情况非常不同,因为你在进行质押。所以你会在网络中自然获得奖励。
In in Ethereum, very different world because you're staking. So you're getting naturally rewarded in the network.
质押是什么意思?
What does that mean, staking?
意思是,在比特币中,矿工通过解决算法和计算来获得奖励。而在以太坊、Solana、SUI和其他大型区块链中,你通过保护网络安全来获得奖励。所以你质押代币来保护网络,因为越多人建立这种网络连接,你就能获得报酬。目前以太坊的收益率大约是4%。
What it means is in Bitcoin, you actually get miners basically get rewarded for solving the the algorithm, the computation. In Ethereum and Solana and SUI and the other big blockchains, you basically get rewarded for securing the network. So you stake your tokens to secure the network because the more people then have this network connectivity between them, and you get paid for that. So in Ethereum right now, it's probably 4% yield.
好的。我试着用十岁小孩能懂的话来总结一下。
Okay. So just I'll try and summarize this like a ten year old.
但这没有风险。你没有使用杠杆。
But there's no risk in that. You're not getting leverage in that.
所以如果我选择购买以太坊这种加密货币,我可以把我价值10万美元的以太坊,在手机上点几下,就可以移动它。按一个按钮就能把它转入质押状态。当它被质押时,我基本上是在用我的以太坊来保护网络,让整个系统更安全以便正常运行。作为回报,他们会每月支付给我4%的收益。
I so if I choose to buy Ethereum, which is a form of cryptocurrency, I can take my $100,000 of of Ethereum, and on my phone, in a couple of clicks, I can move it. I can press a button and move it so that it is staked. And when when it's staked, I am basically using my Ethereum to secure the network, to make the whole thing more secure so it can run properly. And in return, they'll give me 4% of it as a payment every month.
呃,不是每月4%,而是按月支付。按月支付。
Well, not 4% a month, but Monthly payments. Monthly payments.
年化4%。是的。所以你可以在你的加密货币上获得利息。
Of 4% annualized. Yeah. So you can you can get interest on your crypto.
是的,基本上是这样。如果你更懂行一点,更激进一点,还有收益增强产品。我们之前聊过高收益银行账户,加密货币领域也有高收益版本,收益率可以达到20%、30%。
Yes. Essentially. And then if you're a little more sophisticated, a little bit racier, there are then yield enhancements. So we talked about high yield bank accounts. There's high yield versions in crypto, and you can get up to 20%, 30%.
但这时候你就在承担风险了。
But now you're taking risks.
我还可以用我的以太坊进行抵押贷款。实际上我曾经这么做过,现在不做了。但我当时有1000个以太坊,我把它——我申请了一笔
And I can also loan against my Ethereum. So I actually did this at one point. I don't do it anymore. But I I had a thousand Ethereum, and I and I put it I took a
一千美元还是一千个
thousand dollars or a thousand
一千个以太坊。是的。靠。天啊。是的。
A thousand Ethereum. Yeah. Fuck. Gosh. Yeah.
我知道。其实我前段时间转投比特币了,就几个月前,但时机可能不好。这就是为什么梅洛迪太忙了。你真该先打电话问我的。我知道。
I know. I actually I switched into Bitcoin a little while ago, so a couple of months back, but probably bad timing. This is why Melody was too busy. You should've called me first. I know.
靠。不过,是的,这些人很情绪化。我拿它做了抵押贷款,曾经借了几百万美元,用我的以太坊作为抵押购买更多其他加密资产,让我惊讶的是我不用打电话给任何人,不用联系银行,只需在手机上点几个简单的按钮就行。
Fuck. But, yeah, this people are emotional. I had a loan against it, so I borrowed a couple of million dollars at at one point to buy some more other crypto assets against my Ethereum, and it was surprising to me that I didn't have to call anybody. I didn't have to ring a bank. I could just click a couple of simple buttons on my phone.
而我拥有的这一千个以太坊,我成功立刻获得了数百万美元现金直接支付给我。但我选择不那么做,因为市场波动性太大了。
And this a thousand Ethereum I had, I managed to get a couple of million dollars paid straight away in cash straight to me. But I chose not to do that because the markets are super volatile.
但这是一种极其高效、有效的方式,比如说如果你有价值10万美元的比特币,也就是一个比特币,用它作为抵押借2万美元
But but it is incredibly efficient, effective way of people if you were to let's say you had a $100,000 of Bitcoin, one Bitcoin, to borrow $20,000 against it
是的。
Yeah.
那风险并不大。
That's not very risky.
或者用它抵押借5000美元。
Or $5,000 against it.
5000美元。不管多少,风险都不大。或者如果你持有的是可以质押的不同币种,风险非常非常小。就像借钱给美国政府一样,我是说,借钱给以太坊政府,即以太坊网络。
5,000. Whatever it is, it's not very risky. Or if you're in a different currency where you can stake it, very little risk, very, very little risk. It's like lending to the US government, I. E, lending to the to the government of Ethereum, the Ethereum network.
这是一种相当不错的增强方式
That's a pretty decent way of of enhancing
用股票很难做到这一点。如果你持有5000美元的股票,很难用它们获得贷款。对吧?是的。通常来说,当我年轻时终于攒了些钱,买了1万美元的Facebook股票后,我根本想不到有什么简单方法能用我的Facebook股票作抵押贷款。
It's hard to do that with stocks. It's hard to get a loan against your stocks if you have $5,000 of stocks. Isn't it? Yeah. It's typical I mean, when I was when I was younger and I had I bought $10,000 of Facebook stock when I finally got some money, I I couldn't think I couldn't see a simple way of taking a loan against my Facebook stock.
直到后来我在欧洲有了私人投资银行,他们才主动提出:'您需要以蓝筹股价值的50%获得贷款吗?'
It wasn't until later when I had a private investment bank in Europe that my private investment bank were like, do you want 50% of your blue chip stocks as a loan?
是的。这可能通常只面向拥有更多资产的客户。但我想对质押收益率提出一点不同看法。我理解这4%几乎是零风险的,但以太坊价格总是存在风险的对吧?
Yeah. It's probably usually reserved for people with more assets. But I do wanna push back a little bit on the staking yield. I do understand it's 4% virtually risk free, but there are is are always gonna be risks with, you know, the price of Ethereum. Right?
所以关键点在于:你是以以太坊形式获得收益。以太坊。这才是重点对吧?你的
So, like, you're getting paid In Ethereum. Ethereum. And so this is a key thing. Right? Is your
你的风险在于你所质押的货币本身
your risk is the is the currency you are staking
如果以太坊价格下跌50%,那么你质押资产的法定货币价值就会缩水。相比之下,4%的高收益储蓄账户有FDIC保险保障,几乎是...
in. So if Ethereum goes down 50%, then your fiat value of Ethereum sorry, of your stake could go down versus, you know, if you're getting a 4% high yield savings account, it's backed by the FDIC. It's virtually this
此外还有另一个风险,以太坊实际上是年度质押。哦,我明白了。而且大部分质押是通过像Leidow这样的少数几家企业完成的,这些企业正在转向短期质押。因此存在期限错配,其中包含一些风险因素。您想问什么?
And there is another risk as well, is Ethereum is actually annual staking. Oh, I see. And most of it is being done via a few businesses like Leidow, which are turning into short term staking. And so there's a duration mismatch that has some elements of risk in. What do want?
抱歉。您请讲,先生。
Sorry. Go ahead, sir.
好的。好的。
Okay. Okay.
我正想问,您什么时候能收到收益?以太坊质押是每月获得收益,还是...
I was gonna say, when do you get paid? The with the Ethereum stake, you get paid every month, or do you
按年获得收益?我之前是每月收到收益。每月。好的。那养老金呢?
get paid on the year? I was getting paid monthly. Monthly. Okay. What about pensions?
退休金。退休金。在英国我们称之为pension,我想你们称之为401k。但在全世界——至少在整个西方世界——这基本上是一样的。
Retirement. Retirement. So in The UK, we call it a pension. I think you guys call it a four zero one k. But over across the world, it's pretty much the same, across the Western world anyway.
如果我25岁或30岁或任何年龄,我应该通过缴纳养老金来为将来积累财富吗?这是个明智的主意吗?
If I'm 25 or 30 or whatever, should I should I be paying into my pension as a way to generate to make myself wealthy someday? Is that a smart idea?
我没有401k账户,也没有个人退休账户(IRA)。但人们喜欢这些账户并且它们对某些人有效的原因是,它们是税收递延账户,意味着我可以把钱存进去,无论我现在还是以后缴税。钱会留在那里增值,直到我把钱取出来时才需要缴税。但这里有几个问题。
I don't have a four zero one k. I don't have an IRA. But the reason why people like these accounts and why they can work for some people is because they are tax deferred accounts, meaning I can put my money in, whether I pay taxes now or later. The money will then sit there, grow, and I don't pay taxes until I pull my money out. But there's a couple problems.
第一个问题是我对资金投资方向的控制权非常有限。也许这将会改变。特朗普政府已经签署了一项关于401k的新行政命令,可能会改变401k的投资范围,但这尚未实现。你的选择非常有限,主要是共同基金,而且很多都收取费用。
Problem number one is I have very little control over where my money can be invested. Maybe this will change. The Trump administration has passed a new executive order on 401Ks to change which you could potentially invest in 401Ks, but that hasn't happened yet. You have very limited options. They're primarily just mutual funds, and many of them have a fee.
我记得NerdWallet说过,92%的美国人不知道401k的费用是多少。所以如果你不清楚自己的401k费用,现在就去查一下费用比率吧,你应该了解这个。所以你的选择很有限,还必须支付费用,这意味着在你退休之前,华尔街有人会一直从中获利。第二,我要到60岁,确切地说是59岁半,才能动用这笔钱。
I think NerdWallet said 92% of Americans don't know what the four zero one fees are. So if you don't know what your four zero one fee is, this is your notice to go check what the expense ratio is, and you should know that. So you have very limited options. You're going have to pay a fee, which means somebody on Wall Street is going to be paid forever until you retire. Number two, I can't touch this money until I'm 60 years old, 59.
如果提前支取,我必须支付10%的罚金。第三,整个讨论都是关于税收优惠的,但就像我们之前谈到的,在401k之外也有很多税收优惠可以利用,这就是为什么我个人不喜欢它,但我不代表所有人。对某些人来说,它可能是个不错的选择,因为你的雇主可能会提供3%的匹配。比如,如果你投入3000美元到401k,他们100%匹配,可能也会额外投入3000美元,但与此同时你也承担着相同的风险和顾虑。
If I do, I have to pay a 10% penalty. And number three, the whole discussion is you're doing this for tax benefits, but kind of like we talked about earlier, there's a lot of tax benefits that you can get outside of a four zero one ks, which is why for me, I don't like it, but I'm not everybody. For some people, it can be a great place because your employer might say, We're going to give you a 3% match. So if you invest, let's just say, at $3,000 into your four zero one and they match it 100%, they might also just throw $3,000 into your four zero one k, but you have the same risks and concerns along the way.
说实话,我觉得大多数人甚至不知道养老金是什么。我们知道我们在缴纳,但并不真正了解它的运作机制。前几天我在X上看到一个很有趣的辩论,有人(一位英国男士)说:‘我一辈子都在缴纳养老金’
I don't think most people even know what a pension is, to be honest. I think we pay into it, but we don't really know what's working. And I saw this really interesting debate take place on X the other day where someone was a guy was saying in The UK, I've paid into my pension my whole life
哦。
Oh.
所以他觉得这是他应得的,并且当他需要时养老金就会在那里。然后下面的所有人都在告诉他,养老金并不是一个等你打破的存钱罐。你工作时缴纳的养老金资金,实际上被用于支付当时需要领取养老金的人。
So I deserve it, and it'll be there when I'm ready. And then everyone underneath it was telling him that, by the way, it's not like some piggy bank that you get to break open. The money you paid into a pension was used to pay for the people that needed a pension when you were working.
所以你在谈论美国的社保体系。作为美国的雇员,你必须缴纳社保。也就是你收入的6.2%。所以你要交很多税。你需要为收入缴纳所得税,此外还要交社保税。
So you're talking about Social Security in The United States. As an employee in The United States, you have to pay into Social Security. So 6.2% of your income. So you have a lot of taxes. You're going have to pay income taxes on what you make, and then you have Social Security tax.
也就是说除了所得税外,你还要额外支付收入的6.2%作为社保基金。同时你的雇主也需要缴纳6.2%到这个基金。是的。理论上这笔钱会不断增长和复利。这样当你退休时,就能从这个养老基金每年领取养老金。
So on your income, you're going to pay 6.2% of that separately from your income tax, but 6.2% into the Social Security fund. And then your employer is also going to pay 6.2% into this fund. Yeah. This money, in theory, is supposed to grow and compound. That way, you retire, you have this retirement fund that's going to pay you every single year.
你没有选择权。我的意思是,你可以选择何时提取,但无法自主管理。由政府负责管理。没错。这就是如今美国面临资金短缺的社保体系。
You don't get to choose. I mean, you can choose when you pull it out, but you don't get to do anything with it. The government's going to be in charge. Yeah. This is what is running out of money in The United States today.
为什么?因为现在二三十岁和四十多岁正在缴纳社保的人,他们的缴费并不是为自己养老做准备,而是在为当前退休人员支付社保福利。
Why? Because people that are in their twenties, thirties, and forties that are paying into it today, it's not paying for their retirement. It's paying for the people who are retiring today to pay for their Social Security benefits.
这正是人们不理解的地方。他们以为自己是在往一个储蓄罐里存钱,退休后可以打开这个罐子,终身领取养老金。我之前研究过关于养老金的最大误解,首要误解就是:一旦退休,我的养老金就是终身有保障的。
And that's what people don't understand. They think they're paying into a piggy bank that they get to crack open, and that will pay for them as long as they live for the rest of their life. I was looking at the biggest misconceptions around pensions, and the first one was that my pension is guaranteed money for the entirety of my life once I retire.
嗯,这种说法也有一定道理。至少在美国,确实保证你会终身领取社保直到去世。但他们从不告诉你的是——也没有任何星号标注说明——支票的实际价值会是多少。实际情况是:人们缴纳社保时都以为这能保障自己的退休生活。
Well, there there is some truth to that. The part in in The United States, at least, that you are guaranteed what what the what the wording is that you're gonna get the Social Security until you pass away. But the part that they never tell you, and there's no asterisk about this either, is how much the value of the check will be. So here's what's going on. People are paying into the Social Security fund thinking that they're going to be able to fund their retirement.
历来所有理财顾问都说退休保障是个三脚凳:一是401k等个人退休账户,二是个人储蓄,三是社保。但社保是强制缴纳的,除非你是投资者(投资收入无需缴纳社保税),否则不能退出。你必须一直缴纳直到退休年龄,然后才能提取这笔钱。
Every financial advisor historically has said that retirement is a three legged stool. You have your four zero one ks, your personal retirement. You have your own personal savings, and then you have social security. Well, you pay into social security by force because you don't get to opt out of it unless you are an investor. You don't have to pay your social security income or social security taxes on your investment income, but you pay into this until you hit retirement age, and then you get to pull this money out.
嗯,政府的社会保障资金即将耗尽,但人们误解了这一点,因为他们说,哦,这意味着政府不再支付社会保障金。这不是真的。他们仍然会支付,但他们会通过印钞来支付,这正是你一直在谈论的。所以太好了。他们给你一张更大的支票。
Well, the government is running out of Social Security money, but people misconstrue that because they say, Oh, that means the government is no longer going to pay Social Security. That's not true. They'll still pay it, but they'll just print their way to pay it, which is what you've been talking about. So great. They're giving you a bigger check.
那张更大支票的问题在于,它买不到以前那么多东西。所以,是的,根据美国政府的说法,假设他们不违约,你会收到社会保障支票。只是它无法买到你以前想象的那么多东西。
The problem with that bigger check is that bigger check can't buy you as much stuff. So yeah, based off what the United States government says, assuming that they don't default, you're going to get the Social Security check. It's just not gonna be able to buy you as much as you thought before.
其他常见的误解包括:人们认为雇主存入的钱足够覆盖他们完整的退休生活;他们认为这就像一个储蓄账户;他们认为可以随时取用;他们认为当钱用完时政府会兜底;他们认为直到年老才需要考虑这个问题;最后,他们认为自己的养老金是免税的。
The other big misconceptions are that people think their employer is putting enough in to cover their full retirement. They think it's the same as a savings account. They think they can access it whenever they like. The government will cover them when it runs out, and I don't need to think about it until I'm older. And lastly, my pension pot is tax free.
大约二十年前发生的一个重大转变是从所谓的固定收益制转向固定缴费制。以前在福特或美国航空等公司实行固定收益制,退休后你可以永远获得最后一年工资的60%。这导致所有养老金计划破产,因为人们寿命更长,还有其他各种因素。所以他们改成了固定缴费制。
So the big shift that happened around twenty years ago was a shift from what's known as defined benefit to divine contribution. So defined benefit used to work for Ford or American Airlines or whatever company. You retired, you got 60% of your final year salary forever. That was bankrupting all of these pension plans because people were living longer, all the other stuff. And so they changed it to define contribution.
基本上,你能拿回的就是你投入的加上投资回报。但其中有费用。也许你没有交给好的管理人。也许当被问及'你想投资债券还是股票'时,你选择了债券,结果增长不如预期之类的。
Basically, you get out what you put in plus the investment returns. But there's fees. Maybe you didn't give it to a good manager. Maybe you didn't know when they said, well, do you want to put it in bonds or equities? You're like, bonds, and it didn't grow as much or whatever it was.
最终,你只是不确定...美国婴儿潮一代的平均401k账户余额,我相信大约是10万美元
And in the end, you're just not sure that you're the average $4.00 1 ks in The United States for a baby boomer, I believe, is about $100,000
什么年龄?婴儿潮一代?像65岁吗?是的。我认为现在大概是20万美元左右
What age? A baby boomer? Like 65? Yeah. I think it's right now around $200,000
哦,200美元。好吧,但是
Oh, 200 Okay. But
这还不够退休的。
it's not enough to retire.
200美元不够退休。十年每年20美元。所以美国养老金体系里的钱太少了,尤其是这些人根本没有希望。几年前有个关于这个的视频叫'退休危机',解释了这个情况,当时火遍全网。对于养老金领取者、婴儿潮一代或千禧一代来说,都没有出路,每个人都必须在这个体系内做出改变来解决这个问题。
200 is not enough to retire. There's ten years of $20 a year. So there's so little money in The US pension system particularly that there is no hope for these people. And this whole video on this called the retirement crisis became a huge viral success years ago, just to explain it. There is no way out of this for the pensioners, the boomers, or the millennials, and everyone's gonna have to change within this to to figure this stuff out.
我想你今天早些时候说过。你谈到了一个庞氏骗局。这里就有一个。但没人愿意这么说,可每个人都在不断投入资金来维持这个体系,它之所以还能运行仅仅是因为有人一直在投钱。问题在于流入的资金不够了。
I think you said it earlier today. You were talking about a Ponzi scheme. Here, you have one. But nobody wants to say that, but everyone is paying in to keep funding this thing, but the only way it's running is because people are paying it in. The problem is there's not enough money coming in.
因为,因为还记得我们一开始讨论的人口结构吗?年轻人越来越少了。
Because Because the remember the remember we talked about at the beginning, the demographics? There's less and less young people.
年轻人越来越少是因为我们生的孩子越来越少了。
There's less and less young people because we're having less babies.
但是退休的人却非常多。而且这种情况会永远持续下去,因为我们还在生孩子,所以现在的婴儿就是二十年后的劳动力。我们可以向前推算这个趋势。它不会停止。
But there's tons of these retired people. So and this keeps going in perpetuity because we're having babies, so that's workers in twenty years' time. The babies now are workers in twenty years' time. We can forward project this. It doesn't stop.
那么我们到底要怎么支付这庞大的婴儿潮一代的费用呢?在美国有7800万婴儿潮人口,这是我国历史上最大的群体。我们根本支付不起
So how the hell are we going to pay for this massive amount of baby boomers, which is in The United States, 78,000,000 of them, our largest cohort in history at the time? We can't pay for
这些费用。这就是为什么有人提议对比特币的价值征税,或者对你的资产价值征税,或者对你的投资收入征税。
them. And this is where the proposals are to tax your Bitcoin, the value of your Bitcoin, or tax the value of your assets, or tax your investment income.
但英国也面临同样的问题。所有富裕国家都面临同样的问题。每个国家都是。
But The UK has got the same. This whole wealth everybody's got the same problem. Everybody.
汉弗莱,你对退休危机有什么看法?
What do think Humphrey in terms of retirement crisis?
我认为,首先我想说,Jesperi和Tinro,你们刚才在讨论社会保障对吧?是的。但我觉得我对退休问题有完全不同的看法。
I think that so I have a different take on well, think, first of all, I think Jesperi, Tinro, you guys were talking and you were talking about Social Security, right? Yeah. But I have a different take on retirement altogether, I think.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为401k计划对普通人很有好处,因为它是一种强制储蓄机制。很多人不会主动往退休账户存钱,除非雇主提供这种计划,对吧?所以匹配机制在行为金融学上是个很好的设计。就像说,好吧,如果我这样做,就能从雇主那里得到一些免费的钱,至少我存了一些钱而不是什么都不存。
I think 401s are good for the average person because it's a forced savings mechanism. A lot of people wouldn't contribute to a retirement account unless the employer offered it, right? And so the whole match thing is a great thing for behavioral finance. It's like, Okay, if I do this, I get some free money from my employer, and at least I'm saving some money instead of nothing.
你是在为那笔钱工作。
You are working for that money.
这是
It's
不完全
not A totally
对于不了解的人来说,401k是指你同意与雇主共同投资一个投资池。
four zero one k for anyone that doesn't understand is you agreed to invest in a investment pot alongside your employer.
它更像是一种个人退休账户,因为你为雇主工作而获得。是的。你可以选择在401k内进行投资,而且401k通常是税收递延的,这意味着你在以后的生活中才为此缴税。
It is more like an individual retirement account that is awarded to you because you work for an employer. Yeah. You have the option to invest within a four zero one k, and that four zero one k is typically tax deferred, which means that you pay taxes on it later in life.
那和社保有什么区别?
And what's the difference between that and a Social Security?
社保是一个政府项目,要求你每份薪水都投入其中,进入这个大池子。然后当你退休时,政府会每月寄给你一张社保支票。
A Social Security is a government program where you are required to pay into it every paycheck that goes into this big pot. And then when you do retire, the government will send you a Social Security check every month.
好的。
Okay.
但我仍然认为有很多方式可以退休,并且带着某种自由退休。提前退休。你之前听说过'海岸财务自由'(Coast Fire)吗?
But I I still think that there are plenty of ways to retire and retire with some sort of freedom. Retire early. Have you heard of Coast Fire before?
没有。
No.
海岸财务自由是另一个较新的概念,主要在Reddit上流行,它是财务独立提前退休(FIRE)的一个变体。本质上,你将自己的'养老蛋'积累到一定程度后,之后就不需要再投入一分钱,因为假设你达到了某个特定数字——这个数字通常相当合理——如果你投资于标普500指数,其投资回报足以让你在65岁正常退休时实现完全退休。所以这并不意味着你完全提前退休,而是意味着如果你达到了所谓的'海岸财务自由数字',你在选择工作内容上可能会有更多自由。比如,也许你不需要再为你极其讨厌的雇主工作,你可以去做一些更符合你生活方式的事情。
Coastfire is another newer thing that's, that's kind of on Reddit, but it's a variation of financial independence retire early. And it's essentially you get your nest egg to a point where you don't have to invest any dollar into it after that, but because you get it to, let's say, a certain number, and that number is usually pretty reasonable, the investment returns if you're invested in the S and P 500 will get you to a full retirement by the time you are able to retire at 65. So it doesn't mean you retire early completely, but it means that if you get to your coast fire number, which is what it's called, maybe you have more freedom of choice in what you're working on. So, like, maybe you don't have to work for the employer that you absolutely hate. You can maybe go do something that's a little bit more suited to your lifestyle.
你仍然在工作,但不再是为了储蓄退休金而工作,因为你已经达到了那个海岸财务自由数字。举个例子,在35岁时,我认为海岸财务自由数字大约是15万美元。如果你能在35岁前存到15万,假设有30年的投资回报率是8%,到你退休时你将拥有150万美元,这对那些难以理解'我到底能不能退休'的人来说更容易接受。他们不会完全退休,不会在阿鲁巴的沙滩上翘着脚享受,但你仍然会做些事情。我个人认为,如果我完全退休,无所事事会无聊透顶的,对吧?
You're still working, but you're not working to save for retirement anymore because you hit that coast fire number. So for example, at the age of 35, I think the coast fire number is like $150,000 If you can hit 150 ks by '35, if you have thirty years of investment returns at eight percent, you'll have $1,500,000 by the time you retire, which is a little bit more palatable for people that are having a hard time wrapping their heads around, am I ever going to retire? They're not going to retire in that they're not going to be kicking up their feet on the sand beaches of Aruba, but you're still going to be doing something. And I I personally think if I was retired, I'd be so bored out of my mind doing nothing. Right?
所以我更愿意做些事情。关键在于,你不需要再为你讨厌的工作或类似的事情而工作。
So I'd like to work on something. The idea is you just don't have to work for maybe the job you hate or something like that.
所以如果我存到了15万美元,嗯。然后我把它投入标普500指数并获得
So if I hit the $150,000 in savings Mhmm. And I put it into the S and P 500 and get the
8%的回报率。
8% return.
8%的回报率。到65岁时,我就能有150万左右。
8% return. By the age of 65, I'll have 1 point something million.
150.9万。是的。
1.509. Yeah.
那到时候实际价值是多少呢?
What's that worth then?
说得对。就是这样。这就是等式的另一部分——考虑通货膨胀后,它实际会值多少?
That's true. There that's it. That is another part of the equation is with inflation, what is it gonna be worth?
这就是你想达到的目标吗?因为我记得一小时前你说过,你只是想提前退休,大意如此。
And is this what you're trying to do? Because I remember an hour ago, you said, I'm just trying to retire earlier words to that effect.
是的。我的意思是,我希望实现' coastfire'(半退休财务自由)。而coastfire,你可以按自己喜欢的方式定义。但我觉得自己已经接近甚至可能已经达到了,就是能够从事自己热爱的工作,并且我相信我的退休储备金最终会增长到足够我在60、65岁时进入半退休状态。
Yeah. I mean, I'd like to be coastfire. And coastfire is, you know, however you would like to define it. But, you know, I already think I'm close, or if not, I've already reached it, which is like I get to work on the things that I love, and I I think that my retirement nest egg will eventually grow to a point where by the time I hit 60, 65, I'll be able to coast.
所以你是创建了一个数字,计算了需要达到的目标吗?是的。好的。
So did you did you create a number, do the math on what you'd need to get to? Yes. Okay.
是的。你可以预估一下你认为的年支出,然后倒推回那个数字。好的。对。涉及很多计算,但你必须得做。
Yeah. So you can project out your expenses of what you think your expenses are going to be on an annual basis, and then kind of work backwards to that number. Okay. Yeah. A lot of math involved, but you kinda have to do it.
想用ChatGPT之类的工具吗?
Do want to chat GPT or something?
嗯。用
Yeah. Do
吧。退休危机。这令人担忧。这令人担忧。所以你的方法是采用海岸FIRE策略?
it. Retirement crisis. That's concerning. That's concerning. So your approach is to do the coast fire thing?
我的方法是保持纪律性,坚持储蓄和投资,真正实现可能退休的状态。
My approach is let's stay disciplined, consistent with our savings and investing, and actually get to a place where retirement might be possible.
我是说,我很喜欢这个想法,这和我开始实践‘显化你的命运’时一样。当然。你说,我需要这个目标。怎么实现?我们这样做,并让投资增长。
I mean, I I love that idea, and that's the same as when I started with the manifesting your your destiny. Sure. You say, well, I need this goal. How do I do it? We do this and grow up our investments.
对吧?这样做非常明智。然后你就可以承担更多风险。当然。如果你把它独立出来,说,我现在建造的任何胶囊舱,我可以随心所欲,这和我对家的想法是一样的。
Right? It's it's brilliant to do that. And then you can take more risk. Sure. If you isolate that and say, well, any capsule I build now, I can do whatever I want, that was the same idea that I had with the home.
确切地说,就像我已经降低了生活的风险。现在我可以承担风险,这真是件好事。我喜欢你通过说'未来的我想要这个'来实现它的方式。嗯。为了做到这一点,我现在需要做这个。
It's exact it's like I've derisked my life. Now I can take risk, and that's a really nice thing to do. And I love the way that you do it by saying, well, my future self wants this. Mhmm. For me to do that, need to do this now.
嗯。然后它就应该能处理好那件事。当然其中总是有风险的,需要想象一下,但确实如此。
Mhmm. And then it should take care of that. Now it's all there's always risk in it and imagine, but yeah.
然后你就有多余的钱可以做任何你想做的事。
And then you have extra dollars to do whatever you want with.
确实。我也很欣赏你对自己喜欢什么和了解什么一直很自律。是的。我很感激这一点。谢谢。
True. I also love that you've been disciplined on what you like and what you know. Yeah. I appreciate that. Thank you.
因为你说过我认为90%的资金都在指数基金和ETF里。
Because you said I think 90% are in index funds and ETFs.
这就是我会推荐给人们的做法。
That's what I would recommend for people.
哦,抱歉。
Oh, sorry.
好的。就我个人而言,我大约60%的资金投在指数基金里。
Okay. For me personally, I'm like 60% index funds.
但即便如此,这个比例还是相当高的,而且能够避免那种,你知道的,闪亮物体综合症或不管你怎么称呼它。我的意思是
But still, that's that's pretty high and and not having that, you know, shiny object syndrome or whatever you wanna call it. I mean, that
我没有指责我有
I'm not accusing me of having
闪亮物体。我是想让大家都能参与进来。是的。但不管是什么,能够保持纪律性。我认为这是一种非常宝贵的特质。
shiny objects. I was trying to engage everybody here. Yeah. But but whatever it might be to to to be disciplined. I I think that's such a valuable trait.
而且,你知道,你谈到了稀缺心态。我认为那也是一种你拥有的纪律性思维,所以我会重新表述这一点,我认为你已经
And, you know, you talked about the scarcity mindset. Think that's also a disciplined mindset that you have that so I I would I would reframe that, and I think you've
做得非常出色。我认为个人理财是个性化的。好了,各位。我想我接到史蒂夫了。嘉宾已经到了。
done an excellent job. I think personal finance is personal. Alright, guys. I think I got Steve. The guest is here.
准备好了吗?进来吧。
Ready? Come in.
天哪,史蒂夫。
Oh my god, Steve.
你在做什么?这是Boncharge面膜。对瑕疵、皱纹有好处,能清洁皮肤。这是红光。你以前没用过吗?
What are you doing? This is Boncharge face mask. It's good for blemishes, wrinkles, clears up the skin. It's red light. Have you not used it before?
没有。以前没试过这个。它真的非常非常好。它用红光照射你的脸,有助于增加和促进胶原蛋白的产生。其实是因为我太太才发现的。
No. Haven't tried this before. It's it's really, really good. It shines red light on your face, which helps increase and boost collagen production. Actually found it out because of the missus.
看到她戴着它,连续几个晚上都吓到我了。我以为它是用来吓人的,但实际上,它对皮肤真的非常非常好。所以他们是播客的赞助商,我每天使用它已经大约一年半了。
Seeing her wearing it, she terrified me a couple of nights in a row. I thought it was to scare people with, but actually, it's really, really good for your skin. So they are a sponsor of the podcast, and I've been using it every day for about a year and a half now.
哪里呢,好吧,史蒂夫,你这个太棒了。
Where are Well, Steve, you've got this great.
是的。而且,Boncharge全球发货,退货方便,所有产品都有一年保修。所以请访问boncharge.com/diary,全站任何产品均可享受25%折扣。但你必须通过那个链接订购。那就是boncharge.com/diary,使用代码diary。
Yes. And, Boncharge ships worldwide with easy returns and a year long warranty on all of their products. So visit boncharge.com/diary for 25% off on any product site wide. But you have to order through that link. That's boncharge.com/diary with code diary.
请务必对我接下来要说的话保密。我将邀请你们中的10,000人更深入地走进《CEO日记》。欢迎来到我的核心圈子。这是我向世界推出的一个全新的私人社区。我们有太多精彩的内容从未向你们展示过。
Make sure you keep what I'm about to say to yourself. I'm inviting 10,000 of you to come even deeper into the diary of a CEO. Welcome to my inner circle. This is a brand new private community that I'm launching to the world. We have so many incredible things that happen that you are never shown.
我们有录制对话时我iPad上的简报,有从未发布的剪辑片段,有与嘉宾的幕后对话,还有我们从未播出过的剧集,以及更多内容。在这个圈子里,你们可以直接联系到我。你们可以告诉我们希望这个节目变成什么样,希望我们采访谁,以及希望我们进行哪种类型的对话。
We have the briefs that are on my iPad when I'm recording the conversation. We have clips we've never released. We have behind the scenes conversations with the guests and also the episodes that we've never ever released and so much more. In the circle, you'll have direct access to me. You can tell us what you want this show to be, who you want us to interview, and the types of conversations you would love us to have.
但请记住,目前我们只邀请前10,000名在关闭前加入的成员。所以,如果你想加入我们的私人封闭社区,请点击下方描述中的链接,或访问d0accircle.com。我会在那里与你们交流。说到纪律这一点,汉弗莱,我看过你的几个视频,你谈到了你停止花钱的一些方面。有一种说法是,为了致富、储蓄或实现财务目标,你不应该喝星巴克咖啡。
But remember, for now, we're only inviting the first 10,000 people that join before it closes. So if you wanna join our private close community, head to the link in the description below or go to d0accircle.com. I will speak to you there. On that point of discipline, Humphrey, I have seen a couple of videos from you where you talk about the things that you stopped spending money on. And there is a narrative that says, you know, in order to get rich or to save or to get to where you wanna go with your financial goals, you should not have the Starbucks coffee.
确实。你不应该做这些事。你停止了哪些消费?你的框架是什么?
Sure. You should not do these things. What what did you stop spending money on, and what's your framework there?
我回顾了从2014年至今的支出,看了看我的消费习惯发生了哪些变化。我停止消费的第一样东西是爱彼迎(Airbnb)。爱彼迎曾经性价比很高,能提供独特的体验,但如今它们都商业化了。我觉得加上清洁费等各种费用,你最终花的钱比酒店还多,却没那么方便。
So I looked at I took a look into my expenses from 2014 and onward and just kind of, like, saw the differences in how my spending habits have changed. The first thing I stopped spending money on are Airbnbs. So Airbnbs used to be a great value. They used to be a unique experience, but these days they're all kind of commercialized. And I feel like with the cleaning fees and all these fees, you end up paying more for less convenience as a hotel.
这是第一点。我停止批量购买食物。我知道这听起来有点随机,但我是一个人住。有时候我买两加仑牛奶,喝不完,对吧?
So that's number one. I stopped buying food in bulk. I know that sounds kind of random, but I'm a single guy. Sometimes I I get two gallons of milk and I can't finish it. Right?
结果我只能把牛奶倒掉。或者我从好市多一次买48个鸡蛋,然后我就想,老兄,我喜欢健身,但我也没法在两周左右的时间里吃完48个鸡蛋,对吧?所以这是另一点。还有一件事是我开始更换车险,因为我搬到了旧金山市里,开车变少了。
So I'm pouring milk down the drain. Or I'm buying 48 eggs at a time from Costco, and I'm just like, dude, like, I I mean, I like the gym, but I can't eat 48 eggs in like two weeks or whatever that that time is, right? So that's that's another. And then another thing I did was I started to switch my car insurance because I moved into San Francisco, the city. I'm driving less.
所以我以前每年开15,000英里。现在每年只开3,000英里。仅仅通过打电话给我的汽车保险公司,我每月就能省下大约40美元,就因为我的驾驶需求大大减少了。所以这些就像是...解释一下。对。
So I used to drive 15,000 miles a year. I drive 3,000 miles a year now. And just by calling my car insurance, I was able to save like $40 a month just because my driving requirements are much lower. So those are like Explain that. Yeah.
所以,你知道,汽车保险费率取决于你开车的多少。如果你开车少了,搬到了城市里,那么你的费率应该会下降。但我觉得有些人对他们的保险公司有点太忠诚了。他们不愿意比较费率,因为这很麻烦。你其实不想做这件事。
So, you know, a car insurance rates are dependent on how much you drive. And if you drive less and you move to a city, then your rates should come down. But I think some people are a little bit too loyal to their providers. They're not willing to compare rates because it's painful. You don't really want to do it.
这需要时间。但我认为这样做,花一个小时打电话给你的保险公司,看看不同的保险公司,不仅是汽车的,还有房屋的,你可以省下很多钱,因为保险有点商品化了。所以就像是你可以从很多不同的提供商那里获得保障。你不如让他们为你的业务竞相出价。
It takes time. But I think doing that, spending an hour calling your insurance provider, looking at different insurance providers, not just for cars but for homes, too, you can save a lot of money because insurance is kind of commoditized. So it's like you're going to get coverage from many different providers. You might as well put them kind of in a bidding war for your business.
我以前卖过汽车保险。所以,你知道,那是我的一份电话销售工作。
I used to work selling car insurance. So, you know, I used to it was one of my telesales jobs.
我也做过那个。
I've done that as well.
是的。那...那挺有意思的。我觉得人们不知道这个。但当我坐在汽车保险呼叫中心时,屏幕上有一个条,我可以向左右移动,基本上根据销售进展给你折扣。所以如果我真的觉得要失去你这单生意了,我只需要把条向左滑,就能降低你的首期付款和月付。
Yeah. And that that was interesting there. Don't think people know this. But as I sat there in the the car insurance call center, there's this bar on the screen that I can move in either direction to basically give you a discount based on how the sale is going. So if I really think I'm gonna lose your sale, all I do is slide the bar to the left, and it brings your your upfront payment down and your monthly payment down.
嗯。但如果我觉得这单生意很容易,我就可以把条向上移,提高我报给你的价格,并推销给你故障保险和其他所有这些附加服务。所以我觉得人们没有意识到他们所有的保险都是可以协商的,甚至是他们的手机保险和其他所有这些东西。有时候直到你说你要退保,他们才会突然给你一些很棒的优惠,比如给你打五折。是的。
Mhmm. But if I thought the sale was easy, I could bring the bar up in terms of the price I quote you and give you breakdown insurance and all these other upsells. And so I don't think people realize how negotiable all of their insurances are, even their their phone insurance and all these other things. And sometimes you don't figure out until you you say you're gonna quit, and then suddenly they give you some great offer where they're gonna give you 50% off. Yep.
是的。另一种处理方式是我从不真正为成本而销售,而是为收入而销售。好的。也就是说,也就是说,好吧。
Yeah. And the other way of approaching it is I never really sold for costs. I sold for income. Okay. And that is saying that is saying, okay.
你的生活方式,只要不过分荒唐,对吧,就像,我真的不想去餐厅或点Uber Eats外卖之类的吗?
Your lifestyle, as long as you're not being ridiculous, right, is like, do I really want to not go to a go to a restaurant or get that Uber Eats or whatever?
明白。
Understand.
是的。因为那是在惩罚自己。而且这并不总是件好事,对吧?这需要很大的自律,而自律是很难的。
Yeah. Because that's penalizing yourself. And that's not a nice thing to do always. Right? It takes a lot of discipline, and discipline is hard.
但如果你在解决收入问题上投入同等且相反的自律,你实际上会让你的生活方式更进一步。所以,我同时做三、四份工作。你做三、四份——我们现在都做很多不同的事情。你也是。我们都有不同的收入来源。
But if you've got an equal an opposite amount of discipline in solving for income, you actually move your lifestyle further ahead. So the rise of I I do three, four jobs. You do three, four we all do lots of different things now. You do as well. We've all got different income streams.
你几乎更应该把精力花在思考如何增加收入来源,而不是你的成本基础上。在某个点上,我们都同意,就像给史蒂文发消息的那位朋友,他迫切需要挽救他的成本基础。但总的来说,如果你在规划人生,通过解决收入问题,你会比解决成本问题更快达到你的‘海岸财务自由’(coast fire),或者不管它叫什么。
You're almost better off to spend your energy thinking about how do I increase my income stream than your cost basis. A certain point, we agree, like Steven's friend who sent him the message, he needs to desperately rescue his cost base. But generally, if you're looking at a life plan, you'll get to your coast fire, or whatever it's called, by solving for income than you will for cost.
我只是觉得更容易实现的是解决开支问题,就像每个人都能稍微削减一点,但并不是每个人都能说,我明天就要赚两倍的钱。那是个更难的问题。而且我觉得如果你想要 为什么
I just think lower hanging fruit is solving for expenses, which is like everyone can cut back a little bit, but everyone can't just like say, I'm gonna make two x more tomorrow. That's kind of a harder problem. And I think if you want Why
你不就是在用时间做交换吗?因为我的意思是,你可以。如果你从事的是收入较低的工作,嗯。你可以开优步赚外快,或者做点兼职
don't you just trade off your time? Because you I mean, you can. If you're in a lower earning job Mhmm. You can drive an Uber and earn extra money, or you can do a bargain
我明白你的意思
what you're saying.
是的。现在多重收入来源已经成为世界运转的方式,因为生活成本变得如此昂贵,嗯。每个人都不得不做多份工作。但借助科技,我们实际上可以更轻松地实现这一点
Yeah. It's like multiple revenue streams is now the way the world works, because the cost of living has become so expensive Mhmm. That everyone's having to do multiple jobs. But with technology, we can actually do it much easier.
不过我也同意汉弗莱的观点,今天你或许只需带份便当就能获得30%的加薪效果,当然。或者步行去某处等等。而要真正获得30%的加薪可能反而更难
I to Humphrey's point as well, though, you can get a 30% pay rise today just by maybe bringing a packed lunch or Sure. Walking somewhere or whatever else. And it's probably harder to get a 30% pay rise.
今天能不能实现可不好说
Not sure about today.
我认为这取决于你处于人生的哪个阶段。就拿带午餐这个例子来说,现在如果你坚持带午餐,打包午餐是需要花费时间的。根据你时间的价值,这一小时可能值20美元,也可能值2000美元——我认为这是关键区别。确实有些时候和地方必须节省开支,这方面我完全同意你的看法
I think it depends on which stage of life you're in. Because now if you just stick with a lunch if you're on the lunch example, packing lunch costs time. And depending on how much your time is worth, that one hour of time could be $20 It could be $2,000 And I think that's key difference. And I think there's definitely times and places you gotta cut. Fully agree with you on that.
我认为在某个阶段是这样的。我在很多方面仍然很节省,但涉及到时间时——我们办公室在底特律市中心,我通勤需要四十五分钟。但我不自己开车,我的做法是雇人开车送我去。这样做的原因是我可以坐在后座工作
I think at a certain stage look. I'm I have still cheap with my money in multiple places, but I have when it comes to time so our office is in Downtown Detroit, and my commute there is forty five minutes. And but I don't drive. What I do is I get driven there. And the reason why I do that is because I can sit in the back seat and work.
我们每天都会发布财经新闻。所以有时候我们的市场简报会出现一些重要情况。如果我正在开车,我不想边发短信边驾驶。因此,我会选择叫优步或其他服务,花45分钟去,45分钟回,每天都要从账户里支出一笔钱。但我换回了一个半小时的时间,这远比支付给司机的费用有价值得多。
And one of the things that we publish daily financial news. So sometimes something will be happening with our market briefs where, oh, is important. And if I'm driving, I don't wanna be texting and driving. So instead, I pay for an Uber or whatever, and I go that forty five minutes there, forty five minutes back, and it's money out of my account every single day. But I get back an hour and a half of my time, which is worth way more than whatever I'm paying in my driver fees.
所以我觉得这取决于你处于人生的哪个阶段,因为如果是在很早以前,我是不会这样做的。
So I I think it depends on where you are in this stage of life because I wouldn't do that if this was way before.
最大的问题是——这是个开放性问题,问大家:你认为普通人最常犯的金钱错误是什么?
What is the biggest for this is an open question to everybody. What do you think the biggest money mistake the average person makes is?
他们把所有的钱都花光了。就是那两个'S'。你花光了所有的钱,而如果你过了那个阶段,你又开始把所有
They spend all their money. The the two s's. You you're spending all of your money, and if you get past that, then you're saving all
的钱都存起来。
of your money.
两者都是错误吗?
Both of them are mistakes?
两者都是错误。
Both of them are mistakes.
所以就让你的钱闲置在银行账户里什么都不做。
So just having your money sat in a bank account doing nothing.
你每天都在变得更穷。
You're becoming poorer every single day.
我觉得大多数人都不知道这一点。我有个朋友,他的银行余额一直在稳步增长,我记得问他,你现在银行账户里有多少钱?他采取了一种非常缓慢的方式。他是一名自由职业者,经营着自己的生意。然后他说,我想大概有一百万美元吧。
I don't think most people know this. I've got a friend who's steadily compounded his his bank balance over time, and I remember asking him, so how much money do you now have in your bank account? He's taken a really slow approach over time. He runs a business as a freelance. And he goes, I think probably about a million dollars.
我当时就说,这些钱就只是放在你的银行账户里?他说,是的。因为他害怕。他就像,害怕不知道该怎么处理这些钱,所以觉得存在银行账户里是最安全的选择。
I was like, it's just sat in your bank account. He was like, yeah. And because he's scared. He's Like, scared he doesn't know what to do with it, so he thinks just putting it in the bank account is the safest possible thing to do.
嗯,这是一种必然的损失。如果你的银行账户——今天美国的普通银行账户,不是高收益账户,而是普通账户——利率只有0.1%、0.5%,不知道,反正超级低。如果我们假设通货膨胀率是3%,意味着你从银行账户取钱购买东西的成本每年上涨3%,这还是报告的数字,不是很多人感受到的实际通胀率。那么,这意味着净损失了2.5%。所以,如果我有一百万美元在那里,那就是损失了2.5万美元的购买力。
Well, it's a guaranteed loss. If your if your bank account the average bank account in The United States today, not the high yield accounts, but the average account is paying 0.1%, 0.5%, don't know, something super low. If we just say inflation is 3%, meaning the cost you have to spend out of the bank account to buy something is going up by 3%, and that's the reported numbers, not the real inflation that many people feel, well, that means there's a net loss of two and a half percent on that. So if I have a million dollars there, that's $25,000 of lost buying power.
Roel,你觉得公司——因为我的很多听众都是公司,无论是一个人公司还是大公司——你认为他们应该把闲置在账户里的钱投入比特币吗?
Roel, do you think companies because a lot of my audience are companies, whether they're, you know, one person companies or big companies. Do think they should be putting their money that they have sat in their account into Bitcoin?
本质上,如果你是微软,他们拥有巨额现金储备。微软用他们的现金买什么?实际上,他们会买一些投资产品,但通常是现金类的。然后他们可能会收购另一家公司,或者购买房地产数据中心,比如说,或者回购自己的股票。他们购买的这三样东西都受到货币贬值的驱动,而且每年都在变得更贵。
In essence, if you're Microsoft, they have huge cash piles. What does Microsoft buy with their cash? Really, they buy some investment stuff, but it's generally cash based. And then they may buy another company, or they may buy real estate data centers, let's say or they may buy their own shares back. All of those three things that they buy are driven by the debasement of currency, and they get more expensive every year.
而且他们持有的现金回报率只有3.5%。所以他们现在的做法很愚蠢,因为实际上,股东的所有现金并没有购买那些真正驱动公司价值的等价物。
And they're holding a cash return of three and a half percent. So it's stupid what they're doing because, actually, all your shareholder cash is not buying the equivalent of the actual things that drive the value of the company.
那么小公司呢?如果现在有听众的公司银行账户里有100万、200万资金,可能并不完全需要这些钱来维持现金流,该怎么办?
So what about small companies? What if there's people listening now that have companies where they've got 1,000,000, 2,000,000 in the bank, they probably don't need it all for cash flow reasons?
所以我认为投资与储蓄确实被误解了——回到你最初的问题。我认为投资重要得多。我年轻时曾犯过当储蓄者的错误,因为对风险的恐惧让我变得极度风险规避。虽然我是投资银行家,名义上在做投资,但实际上并没有真正投资。
And so I do think that investing versus saving is misunderstood, to go back to your original question. I think investing is much more important. I made the mistake of being a saver when I was young because the the fear that all of that stuff meant I was super risk averse. And I was an investment banker. I was investing, but I didn't.
我通过那个行业赚了钱,于是就想着囤积现金。这样做反而让我损失更大。直到我们看到银行系统崩溃,我才醒悟不能再这样下去了。我要掌控自己的财务。企业也是同样的道理。
So I made money from being in that industry, so I'm like, I'm just gonna hoard cash. I did worse for doing that. And then once we saw the banking system fail, I'm like, I'm not doing this anymore. I'm gonna take control of my own finances. So the same is true of a business.
如果企业在产生现金,就不应该持有大量现金,但保持一些流动性投资会大有裨益。这样既能让你和股东的现金增值,又很重要的一点是:不要失去流动性。因为当你真正需要现金却没有时——特别是这些钱还是你辛苦攒下来的——那将是世界上最糟糕的事情。
If they're generating cash, they shouldn't be sitting on a massively large amount of cash, but some liquid investments, I think, massively help. Because you're going to make your cash grow for you and your shareholders. And that's important. But don't let go of your liquidity, because when you really need it and you don't have cash, that's the worst thing in the world, particularly when you've saved the money.
那么在Real Vision的企业银行账户里
So in your business bank account for Real Vision
是的。
Yeah.
你会把部分资金投入加密货币吗?
Do you put some of the the money into crypto?
这要看情况。很大一部分会重新投资用于公司内部增长。好的。所以你在做决策时考虑的是:你的资本将如何增长?是通过业务再投资来提升股价吗?
It depends. A lot of it gets reinvested for growth within the company. Okay. So you're making the decision as, how's your capital going to grow? Is it going to grow your share price via reinvesting in the business?
还是利用储蓄池购买其他投资以实现多元化更合适?这真的取决于你的业务及其在增长周期中的阶段。但如果你是一家现金流稳定、常规的非增长型企业,那么你会持续产生现金。可能已经提取了部分开发分红,买了房子,完成了所有那些事情。是的。
Or is it better to use the savings pool and buy other investments and diversify away? That really depends on your business, where it is in the growth cycle. But if you're like a cash generating, regular, non growth style business, then you're going to be generating cash. You might have taken some dev dividends out and book bought a house and done all that thing. Yeah.
没有理由不采取一些相对保守的投资策略。汉弗莱,
There's no reason not to do some relatively conservative investment strategy. Humphrey,
你曾与许多富人合作并为他们提供建议。在金钱方面,富人知道哪些普通人不知道的事情?因为当你窥见幕后时,会发现一些金钱游戏。他们在用钱做什么,是普通人没有意识到或无法做到的?
you worked with lots of rich people advising them. What is it that rich people know that the average person doesn't know as it relates to money? Because there are money games that you discover when you get to see behind the curtain. What is it that they're doing with their money that the average person isn't aware of or isn't able to do with their money?
富人通常更有纪律性。他们通常每天都会查看银行账户,对吧?他们做一些小事,这些小事在十年或二十年后会复合成巨大的成果,而且他们思考的是几十年,而不仅仅是这周要做什么,对吧?
Rich people are typically more disciplined. They're they're typically checking their bank account every day. Right? They're they're doing little things that compound into huge results at the end of ten or twenty years, and they're they're thinking in decades, not just what am I going to do this week? Right?
他们为自己选择的是十年、二十年后的投资选项,而不是选择当晚花1000英镑赌足球比赛。因为他们知道,今天为他们工作的1000英镑在十年或二十年后将价值1万或2万英镑。所以这更像是一种长期思维与短期思维的区别。
They're choosing investment choices for themselves in ten years, twenty years from now, instead of choosing sports betting on the football match for £1,000 that night. Because they know that their thousand pounds working for them today will be worth, you know, 10,000, 20,000 in ten or twenty years. So it's more just like a long term mindset versus a short term mindset.
就像延迟满足。延迟
Like delaying gratification. Delaying
满足。是的。
gratification. Yes.
你在下面写什么?
What were you writing down there?
我在写这个体系是如何偏向富人的。这非常不可思议,因为正如查理·芒格所说:给我看激励机制,我就能告诉你结果。一旦你拥有——不是10万美元,而是银行账户里有1000万美元的人——他们能获得所谓的无追索权贷款。这太不寻常了,因为和你的朋友不同,他们不必偿还。
I was writing down how the system is rigged in the favor of rich people. It's extraordinary because it's it's the Charlie Munger quote of show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome. What people get once you get it's not the 100,000, but it's like the people who've got $10,000,000 in their bank account. They get loans that are called nonrecourse loans. It's an extraordinary thing because unlike your friend, they don't have to pay it back.
所以无追索权贷款意味着你最终对贷款不承担法律责任。当然,会有一些操作条款。但为什么他们要这样做?为什么他们能获得这些优惠条件?为什么他们能在股票上市前获得私募配售?
So a non recourse loan means you're not legally liable for the loan in the end. Now, there'll be some provisions on how to do it. But why are they doing this? Why are they getting these favorable terms? Why are they getting the private placements in stocks before they go public?
为什么他们能获得所有最好的offer?因为他们支付费用。因为他们向投资银行支付费用,而投行极度需要这些人,因为他们有大量的金融活动,所以投行会激励他们。我们普通人根本接触不到这些。这和我一开始谈到的对冲基金行业的情况如出一辙。
Why are they getting all the best offers? Because they pay fees. Because they pay fees to the investment banks, and the investment banks desperately want these people because they have a lot of financial activity, and so they incentivize them. None of us get a look in at all of that. It's the same thing that I talked about with the hedge fund industry in the beginning.
就像他们被激励去获取比其他人更优质的信息。我认为部分原因在于,我们想告诉人们的是:你不必玩同样的游戏。你不必向任何人支付费用。你买一个比特币,存在Coinbase或任何地方,运行成本为零,而且你的表现会超过风险投资家。还有像买入指数基金这样简单的方式。
It's like they were incentivized by a phase to get information that was better than everybody else. And I think part of that is the ability that all we're trying to say to people is you don't have to play the same game. You don't have to pay anybody's fees. You buy a Bitcoin, stick it in your Coinbase thing or wherever, It costs you nothing to run, and you're outperforming a venture capital investor. There's simple things like buying an index fund.
你不需要为主动管理向华尔街机构支付数千美元。有办法破解这个系统,而且成本并不高。
You're not paying the Wall Street complex thousands of dollars for active management. There's ways of hacking this, and it's not that expensive to do.
在我们转向Jaspreet之前,我想你们两位都略有提及且你早先说到的一点是关于关系如何创造财富。因为当我与那位亿万富翁坐在公寓里时,我观察到的是——他的朋友和过去与他做过生意的联系人获得了分配,即在这家公司上市前进行投资的优先分配权,这意味着第二天他们的投资就会翻倍。但这些都是关系带来的。所以,如果存在积累财富的策略,它又回到了Ralph开始时说的,与人交往并拥有良好关系实际上是非常被低估的一点。我有个朋友,我可以说出他的名字,叫Harry Stubbings。
Just before we move to Jaspreet, one of the things that I think you kind of both alluded to a little bit and you said earlier on was about how relationships make money. And because what I was watching when I sat in that apartment with this billionaire is his friends and his contacts who had done business with him in the past were getting the allocation, the prime allocation of being able to invest just before this company went public, which means that the next day it would multiply. But those were relationships. So if if there is a strategy to to build wealth, it goes back to what Ralph said at the start, being around people and having good relationships is actually, I think, really, really unappreciated. I've got a friend, I can name my friend, called Harry Stubbings.
他运营一个名为20 VC的播客。在那个播客上,他与极其富有的人对话。Harry的播客没有Joe Rogan的那么大。但由于Harry与地球上最富有的人进行了两小时的对话并持续这样做,他建立了欧洲最大的投资基金之一,尤其是作为一个二十多岁的年轻人。我想,如果我没记错的话,他仅凭关系就筹集了7.5亿美元。
He runs a podcast called 20 VC. And on that podcast, he sits with extremely rich people. The podcast Harry's podcast isn't as big as Joe Rogan's. But because Harry has had two hour conversations with the richest people on planet Earth and continues to do so, He's built one of the biggest investment funds in Europe, especially as like a guy in his twenties. I mean, I think he's raised, if I'm not mistaken, 750,000,000 just from the relationships.
他对我说,你知道,我过去五到十年建立的最大价值杠杆不是浏览量。有人比他浏览量更高。而是他认识所有有钱人。我认为我们在思考财富创造时低估了这一点,因为如果你能像Rael说的那样,接近富人,以某种方式帮助他们,建立那些关系,它会带来回报,而且是永远的回报,对吧?
And he said to me, he said, you know, the biggest value leverage I've built in the last five, ten years isn't like the views. People have more views than him. It's he he knows everyone rich. And and I think we underestimate that when we think about wealth creation because if you can do what Rael said and get around rich people Yeah. Help them in some way, build those relationships, it pays dividends, what, forever?
有一位很棒的人叫Divesh Makan,他在旧金山经营一家名为Iconic的投资公司。他和我差不多同时进入高盛,是一名年轻的投资银行家。但他二月份被聘入了互联网银行团队。他到了办公室,但一个月后,整个团队都没了。所有人都被解雇了。
There's a there's a great guy called Divesh Makan who runs a firm, an investment firm in in San Francisco called Iconic. He was a young investment banker at Goldman around the same time when I started there as well. But he was was hired into the Internet banking team at in February. He turned up the office, but a month later, the entire thing was gone. Everybody was fired.
而他太年轻了,资历太浅,以至于公司都懒得解雇他。他们解雇了所有资深银行家。他在想,我该怎么办?我觉得他当时没有上司了。
And he was too young. He was kind of too junior to bother to fire. They fired all the senior bankers. And he thought, well, what do I do? I think he had no bosses left.
所以他基本上就是去了硅谷,在咖啡店里闲逛,交朋友。他碰巧交到的朋友包括Mark Zuckerberg、Reed Hastings、Reed Hoffman等所有人。但后来他成了他们在高盛的财富顾问,把所有业务都转到了摩根士丹利,然后创建了自己的公司Iconic。Iconic规模巨大,为这些硅谷人士管理所有财富,这一切都源于他在别人不愿与这些随机创业的家伙交谈时(因为经历了大萧条)建立的网络,他整个人生都靠那个网络成就了。
So he just basically went to Silicon Valley and hung out in coffee shops and made friends. The people he happened to make friends with, with Mark Zuckerberg, Reed Hastings, Reed Hoffman, all these people. But he then became their wealth adviser at Goldman, moved it all to Morgan Stanley, and then built his own firm Iconic. And Iconic is massive. Runs all the wealth for these Silicon Valley people from this network of meeting these random dudes building businesses when nobody else wanted to speak to them because they'd gone through the big bust, and he made his entire life on that network.
天才。
Genius.
可能就在那家我花光了所有比特币的咖啡馆。
Probably at that cafe where I spent all my Bitcoin.
就是那扇金色门的店。你当时也在那里,发送比特币时旁边有个流浪汉吗?有意思的是,当我们谈论金钱系统和所有这些事物时,从来没人讨论过管理人际关系的系统。而我们大多数人管理人际关系的方式就是拿到某人的号码
The one with the gold door. You were there at the same time sending was there a bum on Bitcoin? Interesting because when we talk about systems and all these things for money, nobody ever talks about a system for managing your relationships. And the way that most of us manage our relationships is we get someone's number
嗯。
Mhmm.
然后希望我们会再次相遇。但我觉得,我甚至在想这个问题。你显然做了这个播客,让我遇到这么多优秀的人。我应该有个更好的系统来理解这些关系,我如何能为这些人提供服务,了解他们的生日等等各种事情。这不仅对我的心理健康有好处,能交到更多朋友,减少各种社会心理层面的问题,而且从商业角度来说,未来总会有机会——无论是六年后我需要你的建议时。
And we hope that we'll cross paths again. But I think I even think I'm thinking about it. You obviously do this podcast where I meet so many great people. I should have a much better system for understanding those relationships, how I can be of service to those people, understanding their birthdays, and all these other kinds of things. And not only would that be good for my mental health and more friends, less like all these kinds of sort of social psychological things, but in business terms, there's gonna be opportunities whether it's six years from now where I need your advice.
太棒了。
That's great.
人脉网络的关键在于你投入什么,而不是索取什么。是的。所以我见过最优秀的人脉网络拥有者,总是那些会问'我能怎么帮你?'的人。没错。嘿。
The the key to networks is it's what you put into the network, not what you take out. Yeah. So the people who have the best networks I've ever seen are always the people who say, how can I help you? Yeah. Hey.
我有个人要介绍给你。你应该见见某某人。
I've got something for you. You should meet so and so.
哦,对。对。对。人脉连接者。
Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Connectors.
从来不是'嘿,听着,你能为我做什么?'这种态度。是的,付出总会回报。
It's never, hey. Listen. What can you do for me? Yeah. That comes back.
因果总是循环的。尽可能多地为网络付出,网络就会回报你。
Karma flows back always. Give as much into the network as possible, and the network gives back.
我觉得哈里就是这样做的。因为有趣的是,大约一个月前,我说我有个做某事的想法。哈里三十秒内就在WhatsApp上回复我说:'我认识某某人(欧洲投资界顶尖人物),我把你拉进和他的WhatsApp群组'。把我拉进群后,他发了条语音说:'史蒂夫是最棒的'。
I think that's what, in the case of Harry, he's also done. Because funnily enough, about a month ago, I said, oh, I've got this idea to do this thing. And Harry turned around to me thirty seconds within WhatsApp and said, oh, I know, insert name of this person who's the very top in investing in Europe. I'll put you in a WhatsApp group with him. Put me in a WhatsApp group with this guy, sent a voice note, said Steve's the best ever.
然后他说:'史蒂夫在所有方面都比我强得多',这真是他的原话。接着他评价那个他介绍给我的人:'这家伙也是他领域里最顶尖的。把你们俩凑在一起,祝你好运'。我当场就想:'我靠,哈里这家伙'。
Then he said he said, Steve's way better than I am at everything. This is literally what he said. And then he said about the guy he put me in the WhatsApp group, he goes, and this guy is also the best at what he does ever. Putting you two together, good luck. And immediately, thought, fucking hell, Harry.
多么厉害的人啊。然后他介绍给我的那个人也说:'哈里是不是特别棒?'于是我给哈里发消息说:'听着,如果有什么需要我帮忙的'
What a great guy. And then the guy he'd introduced me to goes, isn't Harry such a great guy? And so I messaged Harry. I'm like, listen. If there's anything
我能为你做些什么
I can do for you
但那就是那个冷静的人
but that's the calm man.
但说实话,你知道,我真的相信人脉网络。我认为这是最重要的。你的社群、你的人脉就是一切。绝对的答案是,你必须持续为人脉网络付出。因为如果你试图从中索取,它就会崩溃
But that that honestly, I you know, I really believe in networks. I think it's the most important thing. Your community, your network is everything. And the absolute answer is you have to keep putting into the network. Because if you try and extract from the network, it collapses.
是啊。因为那样你就成了那种十年后才打电话的人,说:嘿,斯蒂芬,能借我点钱吗?我现金用完了
Yeah. Because then you're just that guy who's making the phone call after ten years saying, hey, Stephen, can I get some money from you because I've run out of cash?
我最后想谈的是英国和美国,以及地理位置总体上扮演的角色有多大。因为现在有很多关于英国的政治和社会讨论。人们对英国有些悲观。有些人对美国乐观,有些则不。在考虑财富创造和财务策略时,你会多考虑地理位置因素吗
The last thing I wanted to talk about is The UK and The US and geographies generally and how much that plays a role. Because right now, there's lots of political, social conversations about The UK. People are a little bit doomer about The UK. Some people are optimistic about The US, some aren't. How much do you think about geographies when you're thinking about your wealth creation, your finance strategy?
这有影响吗
Does it play a role?
我很幸运曾在伦敦住了一个多月。我在那里做了几个播客。我想我可以问问你。这些播客有趣的一点是,当我与他们交谈时,他们告诉我,他们的大部分听众基础在美国,大部分收入也来自美国
So I was fortunate enough to live in London for a little bit over a month or so. And I did a number of podcasts out there. And I guess I could just ask you. The interesting thing about these podcasts is when I was talking to them, what they told me is that the majority of their listener base is in The United States. The majority of their money comes from The United States.
他们的大多数赞助人来自美国,而不是英国。我觉得这非常有趣,因为英国本身是一个巨大的市场。但据我所闻,许多真正想在英国发展的人,至少其中不少人,更倾向于从美国赚钱,因为美元金额要高得多。虽然我在全球其他地区经验不多,但我确实认为美国对于追求财富增长和积累的人来说更为友好。
The majority of their sponsors come from The United States. It's not from The UK. And I thought that was very interesting because it's a it's a huge market. But what they were saying is people who are really looking to grow in The United Kingdom, a lot of them at least, just from what I heard, would prefer to earn from The United States because the dollar figures are much higher. Now, don't have a lot of global experience outside of that, but I do think that The United States is more friendly for people that are interested in wealth growth, wealth accumulation.
也许美国不是最好的——世界上还有免税国家,但对于那些更具创业精神的人来说,我认为这里有很多其他地方没有的机会。
Maybe not the best there's tax free countries out there, but in terms of for somebody who is more entrepreneurial in that sense, I think you have a lot of opportunities here that you don't have other places.
你怎么看,Ram?
Do you think, Ram?
我非常相信地理位置的重要性,原因有很多。我在英国、印度、西班牙和开曼群岛都生活过。我的大部分职业生涯是在美国这边度过的。西班牙是生活方式套利的选择——生活成本可能只有英国的一半,开曼群岛的三分之一。
I'm a huge believer in geographic location for a number of different reasons. So I've lived in The UK, India, Spain, and The Cayman Islands. I spent most of my working career on this side of the pond in The US. Spain is lifestyle arbitrage. The cost of living is even probably half out of The UK and a third of that what it is in The US for the Cayman Islands.
一年有300天的阳光,了不起的人群、文化、气候,成本非常低廉,租金便宜,买房也便宜,一切都很完美。是理想的生活方式套利。问题是人脉网络——你周围没有那些雄心勃勃、从事不同事业的人。但在如今这个全球化的世界,我们可以在线工作,这实际上是可行的。
Three hundred days of sunshine, incredible people, culture, climate, cost is very cheap, rent is cheap, to buy is cheap, everything. Perfect lifestyle arbitrage. Problem is network. You're not surrounded by people who are ambitious doing different stuff. In a globalized world now where we can work online, it's actually doable.
所以我们看到很多美国人搬到拉丁美洲,这就是套利的机会,哥伦比亚也是。南美洲、拉丁美洲生活成本低,生活质量高,相对安全。如果你从事的行业可以在线工作,那么通过这种方式,你可以非常快地实现你的最终目标,即‘ coast fire’(经济自由)。如你所说,如果你想要智力资本,世界上只有一个地方像美国这样高度集中地拥有资本和智力资本。
So we're seeing a lot of Americans moving down to Latin America. That's the arbitrage here, or Colombia as well. So into South America, Latin America, it's cheap, high quality of life, relatively safe. And if you're in a business where you can work online, okay, you you can get to your end goal, your coast fire thing super fast by doing that. If you want to your point, if you want intellectual capital, there is only one place in the world that has it in such high densities as The US, capital and intellectual capital.
亚洲有,印度也有,遍布各地,但它们都缺少某些不同形式的资本。所以关键是根据你的最终目标来利用这些资源。
Asia has it. India has it. You know, it's all around, but they're all missing different forms of it. So it's using that for your end goals.
英国的情况怎么样?
What about The UK?
做不到,因为英国现在的态度已经变成了,我们就是不能拥有美好的事物。他们不愿意。如果我跟我朋友聊,他们都不愿意投资。他们只想要更大的房子和下一辆租赁的汽车。现在英国人在制度上就是不快乐的,这种情况已经持续一段时间了。
Can't do it because The UK's attitude now has become, we just can't have nice things. They don't want to. If I speak to my friends, they don't want to invest. They just want to have the bigger house and the next car on lease. People are institutionally unhappy in The UK right now, and that has been for a while.
所以我们不再有创业文化了。它已经被扼杀了。欧洲也是。所以不只是英国。整个欧洲,同样的事情都发生了。
And so we don't have a culture of entrepreneurialism left. It's been stamped out. Europe too. So it's not just The UK. Everywhere in Europe, same thing has happened.
人们就是不再相信自己还能拥有美好的事物了。
People just don't believe they can have nice things anymore.
当你思考你所理解的关于英国的叙事时,比如,核心信息是什么?所以如果它像一个营销口号,英国,你是一个投资者,你是一个企业家,当你想到英国时,你脑子里浮现的是什么?会得出什么结论?
When you think about the narrative that you understand of The UK, like, what is the the message? So if it was like a marketing slogan, The UK, you're an investor, you're an entrepreneur, what what's in your head when you think of The UK? What comes out?
是现实中的情况是什么,还是你会如何向别人推销英国?
What is it in reality, or what would be how would you sell The UK to others?
不。我是说,你认为,作为一个投资者和企业家,你认为英国目前的叙事是什么?
No. I'm saying, like, what do you think what do you think the narrative of The UK is right now as an investor and entrepreneur?
我觉得它就像一个死水区。死水区?
I think it just feels like a backwater. Backwater?
是的。什么是
Yeah. What's an
经济死水区?别忘了,在90年代末和2000年代,它曾是整个世界金融业的中心。也是世界广告业的中心,还有所有创意产业。这些都集中在伦敦。
economic backwater? So don't forget, in the late '90s and 2000s, it was this entire center of the world's financial industry. It was the center of the world's advertising industry. It was some of the all the creative industries. It was all based in London.
我们失去了所有
We lost all of
这些。为什么?
it. Why?
监管。所以你认为这是
Regulation. So you think it's
政府失策了?
the government's government have misstepped?
是的。政府失策了,美国重新掌控了银行体系,因为他们在英国和欧洲对待资本要求的方式与美国不同。他们成功让华尔街回归华尔街。一切都转移了。我当时在高盛工作。
Yeah. The government misstepped, and The US took the banking system back because how they treated capital requirements in The UK and Europe was different than The US. They managed to get Wall Street back to Wall Street. It all moved. I was working for Goldman Sachs.
伦敦曾是他们最大的办公室。摩根大通、摩根士丹利等所有公司都是如此。而我们却阻止了它。现在我们又看到了这种情况。我们有新兴产业正在崛起。
London was their biggest office. Same for JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, everybody. And we just stopped it. And now we're seeing it again. We've got newer industries rising.
我们有人工智能、加密货币。人工智能起源于剑桥。我认为大部分是谷歌DeepMind的成果,应该主要是剑桥大学的研究。但我们搞砸了。
We've got AI, crypto. AI came out of Cambridge. I think it was the Google Deep Mind. I think it was Cambridge University for most of that stuff. And we dropped the ball.
我们在金融行业搞砸了,在人工智能领域也搞砸了。我们有牛津、剑桥、帝国理工等高校培养出的大量顶尖人才,却没有好好利用。他们都去了美国。
We dropped the ball in the finance industry. We dropped the ball in AI. We get this massive talent density coming out of Oxford and Cambridge, Imperial College, all these others. And we don't use it. They all move to The US.
我们曾经拥有加密货币行业,我们也参与其中。但那个机会我们也搞砸了。我们在所有事情上都搞砸了。而欧洲正在通过表态'我们不想做这个'来主动关闭每一个机会之门。别忘了,现在欧洲大部分国家都是老龄化国家。
We had the crypto industry of which we were part of that. We dropped that ball too. We dropped the whole ball on everything. And Europe is actively shutting the door on every opportunity by saying, we don't want to do this. Don't forget, they're a nation of old people now, most of Europe.
所以他们宁愿不要任何改变。但如果我们回到那个经济增长的公式,人口增长是关键驱动力。你需要一个长期增长的人口,但需要以正确的方式实现。所以他们归咎于此,但整个经济机器的问题在于没有人生孩子。这才是问题所在。
So they'd rather just not have any change. But if we go back to that economic formula for GDP growth, population growth is the key driver. You need a growing population over time, but it just needs to be done in the right way. So they're blaming that, but the whole economic machine is because nobody's had kids. That's the problem.
人口结构问题是所有问题的根源。问题在于没有人生孩子,所以就没有经济增长。于是你试图引入新的劳动力来创造增长。你又不想要这样,所以他们就被赶出去。与此同时,经济却在放缓。
The demographic problem is the structure of everything. And the problem is nobody's had kids, so you don't have economic growth. So then you try and bring in new workers to create growth. You don't want that, so they get thrown out. Meanwhile, the economy slows down.
人们变得保守退缩,不再愿意承担风险。整个体系现在不得不为国民医疗服务体系买单来供养这些老年人。没有足够的年轻人来支撑这一切。政府的债务越来越重。
People get pulled back. They don't want to take risk anymore. The whole system is now having to pay for the National Health Service to pay for these old people. There's not enough kids to support all of that. The government's getting more in debt.
债券收益率正在上升。所有人都在问,到底发生了什么?其实从第一天起,这一切都是人口结构变化的结果。
Bond yields are going up. Everyone's like, what's going on? It's all been a function of demographics from day one.
总结陈词时间,汉弗莱。最终立场。人们最应该思考的重要问题是什么?你会如何收尾?有没有什么我本该问却没有问你的问题?
Closing arguments, Humphrey. Closing position. What's the most important thing people should be thinking about? How would you round off? Is there anything that I didn't ask you that I should have asked you?
是的。我认为我的个人哲学很简单:个人财务归根结底就是收入减去支出。所以要深入了解这两项。懂得如何推动这两方面。然后真正留意你把钱花在什么地方。
Yeah. I think that my my personal philosophy is just that personal finances comes down to your income minus your expenses. So know those two intimately. Know how to drive both of those two. And then just really watch what you spend your money on.
对吧?比如汽车,美国平均每月的车贷是745美元。如果可以的话,尽量避开这种支出。努力保持理性。一切都在于保持一贯和合理,我认为这些小小的决定会累积成一个更加光明的未来。
Right? Like the car the average car payment in America is $7.45 a month. Stay away from that if you can. Try to be reasonable. Everything is about being consistent and reasonable, and I think those small decisions compound to a much brighter future.
对我来说,首要的是自我教育。我们刚才讨论了你的财务状况如何?你的银行账户情况怎样?你想要实现什么目标?所以你要先自我教育。
Well, for me, first thing is educate yourself. You don't know we talked about what do your finances look like? What's your bank account look like? What are you trying to achieve? So you educate yourself.
学习投资知识。最重要的是进行投资。投资优先于储蓄,这是你实现目标的唯一途径。因为如果不这样做,你的钱就会贬值。然后就是付诸行动。
Learn about investing. Invest above all things. Investing above saving is the only way you're going to get there. Because if not, your money goes down. And then just do it.
做一笔交易。做一次投资。失败。学习。一遍又一遍地重复这个过程。
Make a trade. Make an investment. Fail. Learn. Do it again and do it again.
并且不断学习、自我教育。然后让自己置身于一个良好的社交网络中。无论是在推特上,还是在社交媒体上,找到一个你可以学习的群体,拓展你的人脉网络。做到这些,你就会进步。你不会失败的。
And keep learning, educating. And then surround yourself by a good network. Just be whether it's even on Twitter, on social media, find a network of people that you can learn from, add to the network. And those things, you'll you'll get ahead. You can't fail.
如果你能自我教育,就立刻开始,然后学习,持续去做,并且建立一个强大的人脉网络。
If you educate yourself, just get started, and then learn, keep doing it then, and just grow a great network.
那要买比特币吗?显然要买。你在加密货币里持有什么币?
And buy Bitcoin? Obviously. What what what coins do you own in crypto?
所以,这接下来可能会更有争议了。实际上,我为了留作纪念只持有一个比特币。妈的。好吧。所以我
So I so this is gonna get more contentious now. So I actually don't I own just one Bitcoin for posterity's sake. Fuck. Okay. So I
持有…那我干脆删掉这期节目好了。我的
own I'll delete the episode then. My
我主要持有SUI,也就是SUI代币。它是源自Facebook的加密网络,不过我也是其基金会成员。但我实际上把我大部分的流动资产净值都投进去了。然后我在以太坊上拥有很多数字艺术品,因为那对我来说是长期的价值储存。NFTs?
I own mainly SUI, which is the which is the SUI. The crypto network that came out of Facebook, but I'm also on the foundation as well. But I actually put most of my liquid net worth into that. And then I own a lot of digital art on Ethereum because that's a long term store of value for me. NFTs?
是的,NFT。所以我经常在比特币、以太坊、Solana和SUI之间转换。我不做交易,这些都是长期持有。我可能每两年调整一次我的资产配置。
Yeah, NFTs. And so I've moved around a lot between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and SUI. I don't trade. So these are long term holds. I might change once every two years, change my allocation.
但总的来说,都是那些主流的大币种。
So but it's all generally all the big big tokens.
Jaspreet,请做总结发言。
And Jaspreet, closing statements.
首先,感谢Rahul Humphrey和Steve组织这次活动。我想补充的是,互联网上有很多人——恕我直言——在美化被动收入或巨额财富的获取有多么容易,这有时让人难以看清实际该如何实现。我想说的是,没有什么事情是容易的,但无论你身处何地、背景如何、来自哪里,改变总是可能的,但这需要付出努力。我认为帮助你达成目标的最佳方式就是努力工作、做出牺牲,我称之为‘十年牺牲期’。这样你才能拥有大多数人梦寐以求的东西。
Well, first off, thank you, Rahul Humphrey, and Steve for putting this together. This is a and to add on to everything that you guys said, for me, I think there's a lot of, for lack of a better word, crap on the Internet of people romanticizing and fantasizing how easy it is for passive income or for insane levels of wealth, where it becomes sometimes hard to see how you could actually do that. And what I'd like to say is, look, nothing comes easy, but change can always be made regardless of where you are, what your background is, where you come from, but it's going to take work. And I think the best thing to help your outcome to get to where you want to go is hard work, sacrifice, put in what I call a decade of sacrifice. That way you can have what most people dream of.
而你能达到目标的唯一原因,是因为你愿意做大多数人不愿意做的事。
And the only reason why you're able to get there is because you're willing to do what the majority of people are not willing to do.
用一句话总结,你对AI是乐观还是悲观?乐观。
And in a word, AI positive about it or pessimistic? Positive.
这是我们拥有过的最棒的工具
Best tool we've ever been
已知。乐观。
given. Optimistic.
是的。好的。很好。令人耳目一新。听到这些非常令人振奋。
Yeah. Okay. Good. Refreshing. Very refreshing to hear.
非常感谢大家今天抽出时间。我会在下方链接你们告诉我的应该引导观众关注的三个最重要的事项。所以在这段对话结束后,我会请你们提供三个可以找到你们的途径。第一个将是你们的频道,也就是你们的YouTube频道。你们都是非常大型的YouTuber,拥有惊人的频道,这些频道我已经关注了很多很多年。
Thank you all so much for giving me your time today. I'm I'm gonna link the top three things that you tell me we should direct the audience to below. So I'll ask you after this conversation to give me three things where people can find you. The first is gonna be your channels, so your channels on YouTube. You're all very large YouTubers and have incredible channels, channels that I followed for many, many years.
你们还有什么其他认为对观众相关的内容希望我链接的吗?
Is there anything else that you guys would like me to link that you think is gonna be pertinent to the audience?
嗯,我们有一个为投资者提供的免费通讯,我们每天都会发布
Well, we have a free newsletter for investors that we publish every single day
是的。
Yeah.
叫做《市场简报》。我认为这会是一个很好的选择。
Called Market Briefs. I think that would be a great one.
我也会把那个链接加上。还有其他事吗?
I'll link that one as well. Anything else?
Real Vision 是一个简单的地方。它是每个人都能找到所需之处的简单家园。所以
Real Vision is a simple place. It's a simple home for everybody to find what they need. So
网站是 realvision.com 吗?还是
The website, realvision.com? Or
realvision.com。
realvision.com.
好的。那么,Humphrey 呢?
Okay. And, Humphrey?
我现在正在建一个网站,基本上是我的指南,但它是关于
And I'm building a website right now that's basically my my guide, but it's my guide on
不同
different
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