丹尼尔·普里斯特利：水管工的收入将超过律师！我预测了2008年，现在警告2029年

在过去几年里，我每年为公司的ATS系统支付了数万美元。

And over the last couple of years, I've paid tens of thousands of every year for an ATS for my companies.

今年我想，你知道吗？

And this year, I thought, you know what?

实际上，我觉得我们自己可以在几周内开发出一个ATS系统，当然可以。

Actually, I reckon we could build an ATS in a couple of weeks ourselves Of course.

而且它可以完全符合我们的需求。

And it could be bespoke to us.

所以我们启动了这个项目。

So we started that project.

我昨天看到了它的第一个版本。

I saw the the first version of it yesterday.

我们一周前才开始的。

We started a week ago.

我看到的第一个版本，真的比我们之前用的要好得多，因为它是我们量身定制的。

And the first version the the version of it I saw was like, oh, this is significantly better than what we're using before because it's bespoke.

是的

Yeah.

这让我开始思考普遍开发软件的机会，那就是在一个软件变得越来越便宜、更容易、更快的世界里，我们都会使用更多的软件，但可能不会再为别人的软件付费，尤其是这类工具、生产力工具和系统。

And this made me think about the opportunity of creating software generally, which is that in a world where it becomes, as you say, cheaper, easier, faster, we're all going to be using more software, but we're probably not going to be paying other people for their software, especially when it's these kind of tools, productivity tools and systems.

如果它纯粹是一个工具，

If it's purely a tool,

复制起来非常容易。

it's very easy to replicate.

但如果一个工具附带了社区，附带了教育和培训，附带了智能代理——教育和培训？

But if it's a tool that comes with a community, if it comes with education and training, if it comes with agents Education and training?

是的。

Yeah.

比如，如果你要做一个ATS，即招聘追踪系统或招聘工具，并且你拥有DOAC系统和方法，我可以去参加培训，学习如何入职新人、如何建立企业文化、如何在DOAC开展各项事务。

So for example, if you were to do an ATS, an applicant tracking system, a hiring tool, and you had the DOAC system and method that I can go and attend the training as to how you onboard people, how you create culture, how you do things at DOAC.

我现在对这款软件感兴趣了，因为它附带了令人兴奋的培训内容。

I'm now interested in the software because it comes with that exciting training.

如果还有一个与该产品配套的训练营，或者一年一度的聚会或晚餐系列，甚至还有一些附带的资金机会的话。

If there was also a bootcamp that I could go to that was attached to that product, if there was also an annual retreat or a dinner series, if there was also some funding opportunities that came with that.

过去，你只需专注于开发一款软件工具，因为那非常耗费人力，而且它本身就有天然的护城河，你无需太多创意。

So once upon a time, you were just simply going to focus on creating a software tool because that was so labor intensive and also it had a natural moat or protection around it that you didn't have to get creative.

但如今，我们生活在一个AI能让你快速构建产品的世界里。

But now we live in a world where the AI lets you to build the product pretty quickly.

它能帮你完成我们之前讨论的这些其他事情。

It helps you to do all these other things that we talked about.

突然间，这变成了一款非常有趣、可以快速搭建的产品。

And suddenly it's actually quite a fun product that you can spin up.

你已经创建的东西，过去可能需要花50万美元、耗时六个月才能完成。

What you've already created would have probably cost $500,000 in six months.

天啊，六个月，我并不是说

Oh my God, six months, I Not

那么久以前了。

that long ago.

是的，这可能需要总共十八个月才能完成。

Yeah, it would probably cost It would have probably taken about eighteen months total end to end.

你却在一周内就做完了。

You've And done it in a week.

对。

Yeah.

所以其他人也能在一周内完成。

And so everyone else can do it in a week.

事实上，如果现在有人在做这个业务，每天都会冒出一千个新的ATS系统。

And in fact, if anyone if that's anyone's business right now, there's gonna be a thousand new ATS systems a day.

其中一个会在Twitter上走红。

One's gonna trend on Twitter.

人们会下载那个系统。

People are going to download that one.

然后他们就会跳槽，因为一个新的、更好的系统出现了。

Then they're to jump ship because a new one emerges and it's better.

这更像是生成式技术之类的。

It's more agen tech or whatever.

所以，我想问的是，我们是否正看到软件普遍商品化？

And so again, I think, are we seeing software generally become a commodity?

我们会看到所有商业机会都变得像YouTube内容一样。

What we're going to see is we're going to see all business opportunities be like YouTube content.

我的意思是，如果我回到二十五、三十年前，说会有十个人组成的、没有资金支持的小型电视工作室，每周制作内容，几乎不花什么钱，你会觉得这太疯狂了。

I mean, if I went back twenty five, thirty years ago and said there's going to be 10 person unfunded little TV studios that produce content every single week for almost no money, you'd think that's crazy.

我的意思是，《宋飞正传》每集曾经要花500万美元。

I mean, Seinfeld used to cost $5,000,000 an episode.

《辛普森一家》和《老友记》，这些节目每集都是数百万美元的成本。

The Simpsons and Friends, these were all multimillion dollars per episode.

而现在，我们已经实现了这种模式，一个小团队就能做到，比如

And we've now replicated that that can be done, like, by a tiny little team for

每周免费制作。

free every week.

这很有趣，因为一旦我们说答案是去做这些现在容易、免费且廉价的事情时，我们就几乎忽略了这样一个事实：如果每个人都在做，那这件事就不再具有价值了。

It's interesting because the minute we say that the answer is to do these things that are now easy and free and cheap to do, it's almost like we then don't acknowledge the fact that if everyone's doing it, it's no longer a valuable thing to do.

价值降低了。

It's less valuable.

是的。

Yeah.

随着它变得更容易，另一个维度就是价值的下降。

As it becomes easier, the other axis is the decline in the value.

所以我们对人们说：去当内容创作者吧。

So we're saying we're saying to people, go be a content creator.

但事实上，他们不需要CNN规模的庞大制作设备就能做到，这意味着每个人都能做，这就意味着，理论上它在变得容易的同时，价值也在同步下降。

But the very fact that they can without needing a CNN sized skyscraper production equipment also means everybody can, which means that that actually is losing value at the same rate that it's becoming easy theoretically.

因此，我不断从第一性原理思考：我能依赖什么？什么是不可替代的人类特质，只有我能做，而孟买的一个孩子却做不到？

And so what I continually think about from first principles is what is it that I can bet on that is irreplaceably human, which only I can do and a kid in Mumbai cannot do?

所以当我们谈到软件时，我想的就是孟买的孩子。

And so when we say software, I go kid in Mumbai.

说到内容，我就想到孟买的那个孩子。

And then we say content, I go kid in Mumbai.

嗯，是现实世界中的实体体验。

Well, physical experiences in the world real world.

我同意你的观点。

I agree with you.

站在舞台上讲述你的故事，这一点你已经看到，成千上万的人会赶来观看，参与其中，与一群分享相同体验的人同处一室。

Standing on a stage and telling your story is something I mean, you already see that thousands of people show up to see this and to be part of to be in a room with other people who are sharing an experience.

你看，AI版本的你做不到的是亲自出席活动。

See, the thing that the AI version of you can't do is turn up to an event.

我同意。

I agree.

所以我这么说，是因为我真心希望有人能挑战我。

So I I say what I say because I genuinely want to be challenged here.

我坐在这里，面对这些AI专家和首席执行官们，是因为我真心希望他们能说出什么，颠覆我现有的信念，让我恍然大悟：哦，这确实是个好观点。

I I'm I sit here with these AI experts and CEOs because I genuinely I hope that they say something that tilts the current belief that I have and, like, makes me go, oh, actually, know, that's good point.

我正在寻找关于这个主题的有价值的观点。

I'm in search of good points on the subject matter.

所以当我刚才说内容软件正变得越来越商品化时，正是因为这种商品化，我们诱使人们更多地去做它，却忽视了一个事实：人们越是大量参与，它就越不值钱，越像一种商品。

So when I said what I just said about content software becoming increasingly commoditized, and because it's becoming commoditized, we're, like, tempting people to go do more of it without acknowledging the fact that the very fact that people are doing more of it means it's less valuable, and it's more of a commodity.

但我想要说的是，这些事情必须结合起来。

What I'm saying, though, is that these things have to go together.

所以，任何从事现实世界体验的人，我认为未来会发生的是：你会去参加一个会议，而这个会议会附带一款定制软件，这款软件只存在两到三周，但非常有趣，并且与会议内容紧密相关。

So simply like anyone who's doing real world experiences, I think what's going to happen is you'll go to a conference, and that conference will come with custom software that lasts two or three weeks that is really, really interesting, and it relates to that conference.

这款软件是作为面向该会议与会者的SaaS产品创建的，它会短暂地出现，而过去这些是彼此分离的，现在它们全都聚集在一起了，对吧？

And that software was created as a SaaS product for the attendees of that conference, and it kind of pops into existence very briefly, these things used to be separate, and now they all cluster together, right?

所以这是一种你把所有东西组合在一起的自助餐式体验。

So it's a buffet of things that you all put together.

如果我们看看现在大多数成功的公司，它们都在做社交媒体。

If we take most successful businesses now, they do social media.

过去，社交媒体是一个独立的业务。

That used to be a standalone business.

很难想象一家美发沙龙还能同时是一家媒体公司。

It was crazy to think that a hair salon could also be a media business.

我接触过数以万计的创业者，但真正想做大事业的人寥寥无几。

I've met with tens of thousands of entrepreneurs, and the number of people who want to go big is tiny.

这仅仅是创业群体中的一小部分。

It's a fraction of the entrepreneurial community.

大多数人想要的是一份能带来绝佳生活方式的生意。

What most people want is a business that provides an amazing lifestyle.

他们希望能在任何地方生活和工作。

They want to live and work from anywhere.

他们希望可以自由旅行。

They want to be able to travel.

他们希望每周只工作三四天。

They want to do three or four days a week.

他们希望可以送孩子上学。

They want to drop their kids off at school.

他们希望从事不单调、有趣的工作，带点混乱、一点创意、一点乐趣，还有点挑战性。

They want to, do non monotonous, interesting work that is a little chaotic, a little creative, a little bit fun, a little bit challenging.

他们希望与一小群人共事，彼此了解、享受相处，并一起走过人生旅程。

They want to work with a small group of people that they get to know and enjoy and travel through life together.

而这些，才是大多数人真正想要的东西。

And those are the types of things that the majority of people actually want.

真正想要做大事业的人非常少。

Very few people actually want big.

所以我注意到的一点是，现在建立一个大企业可能比以往更难，但建立一个小型成功企业却比以往更容易。

So one thing that I'm noticing is that it's probably harder than ever to build a big business, but it's easier than ever to build a small, successful business.

如果我们说，一家年收入在一百万到五百万之间、团队有十个人的企业，完全是完全可能实现的。

So if we were to say that a business that does 1 to 5,000,000 of revenue with a team of 10 people, that is totally super possible.

但一旦你超越这个规模，就会变得越来越难，因为你更频繁地面临颠覆。

But once you go beyond that, it's becoming harder and harder because you get disrupted more frequently.

因此，你必须成为顶尖的创业者，才能应对持续不断的颠覆和变化。

So you have to be an elite athlete of entrepreneurs to withstand the constant disruption and the constant change that's coming.

所以，由于你的思维天性倾向于想得非常、非常大，你可能忽略了这一点：许多在令人厌烦的公司环境中工作的人，他们的工作单调乏味，感觉自己被束缚在办公桌前，或被束缚在一个根本不关心他们的团队里，这些人最终往往会进入一些永远不会变大的小企业，但这些企业却会很棒。

So because your natural mindset is to think really, really big, you're probably missing that for many people who are working in an annoying corporate environment and their job is monotonous and they feel tethered to a desk or they feel tethered to a team that doesn't really care about them, a lot of those people are going to actually end up in small, little businesses that will never be big, but they'll be great.

它们会很有趣。

They'll be fun.

人们会有更大的灵活性，也因此获得绝佳的机会。

And people have flexibility and they'll have great opportunities as a result.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're right.

我确实倾向于寻找大的机会。

I do have a bias towards trying to find big opportunities.

但实际上，我认为那个巨大的蓝海机会——对于不了解的人，我所说的红海来自《蓝海战略》这本书，指的是竞争极其激烈的市场。

But actually, I think the big blue ocean opportunity, which is, for anyone that doesn't know, I think of Red Oceans from the book called Blue Ocean Strategy, as very competitive Hypercompetitive.

那是些糟糕的市场，就像一场竞相压价的竞赛。

Horrible markets where it's like a race to the bottom.

大家都在做同样的事，毫无利润空间。

You're all doing the same No profit margin.

你们在做同样的事，说着同样的话。

You're saying the same thing, doing the same thing.

你们都以为自己的独特定位是独一无二的，但其实并不是。

And you all think that your unique positioning is unique, but it's actually not.

市场并不会对此给予不同的评价。

The market doesn't value it any differently.

就像一家葡萄酒公司声称他们的酒多陈酿了一年，或者在标签上用个更花哨的词，这都是红海，一场血战。

Like a wine company saying that their wine is a year older or using a fancier word on the label, it's a red ocean, a bloodbath.

蓝海是无竞争的水域，你有成长的空间，竞争也少得多。

A blue ocean is an uncontested waters where you have room to grow, much less competition.

你的主张、你的商业理念、你为世界提供的价值，确实有某种根本性的独特之处。

And there is actually something fundamental to your proposition, your business idea, the value you're giving to the world that is unique.

我在寻找蓝海。

I'm looking for blue oceans.

是的。

Mhmm.

是的，我会努力在蓝海中建造一艘大船，是的。

And yes, I will try and build a big boat in the blue ocean Yeah.

因为这就是我的天性。

Because that's my nature.

但同时，无论你是否想做一种生活方式型企业，在蓝海中航行对每个人来说都更容易。

But also, life is easier when you sail in blue oceans for everybody, even if you want a lifestyle business.

我认为目前一个很好的例子是，如果你创办一家营销公司，当我2014年创办时，尤其是社交媒体公司，那时你正处于蓝海。

I think one of the great examples at the moment is if you start a marketing agency, when I started one in 2014, especially a social media agency, you were in the blue ocean.

你确实短暂地处于蓝海吗？

You were, briefly?

短暂地。

Briefly.

他们说，蓝海通常能持续十年左右。

And they say, you know, blue oceans often last for ten years.

到了2024年，我最好的朋友们，我觉得有70%都在经营营销或品牌公司。

In 2024, my best friends, I'd say 70% of them run marketing or brand agencies.

目前我每个月都会和他们进行同样的心理咨询。

I'm having the same therapy session with them once a month at the moment.

如果你看看全球前四大或五大广告公司，比如WPP以及马丁·索雷尔的业务，它们都

And if you look at the big four, big five agencies in the world, the WPPs as well, Martin Sorrell's business, they're all

它们的竞争方式导致了利润率的下降。

They're all competed the way their margins are.

它们正在

They're They're

正在失去利润。

losing their profit.

正在失去市场份额。

They're losing their market share.

而且

And

人工智能和数字技术意味着这种颠覆周期现在以月计，而不是以年计了。

AI and digital technology means that this disruption cycle happens in months, not years anymore.

所以你说蓝海可以持续数年甚至数十年，但在人工智能的世界里并非如此。

So you said a blue ocean can last for years or decades, not in the world of AI.

在人工智能的世界里，一旦我们发现你拥有蓝海，就能迅速复制它，并带着大量竞争者迅速涌入你的蓝海。

In the world of AI, as soon as we've identified that you've got a blue ocean, we can replicate that real fast, and we can come and fly out to your blue ocean with lots of competition.

这里有一件有趣的事。

Here's something that's interesting.

纵观整个历史，每当一个社会出现低社会流动性与过度竞争时，就会有无数的节日。

Throughout all of history, whenever you find societies that have low social mobility and hyper competition, there's lots and lots of festivals.

所以回到中世纪，他们每个季节都有节日。

So you go into medieval times, they've got a festival for every season.

他们每个重要人生事件都有节日。

They've got a festival for every life event.

节日层出不穷。

There's just constant festivals.

你去非洲农村或印度农村，到处都是节日，节日，节日，对吧？

You go into rural Africa, rural India, and it's festivals, festivals, festivals, right?

婚礼、葬礼、季节性节日。

Weddings, funerals, seasonal festivals.

这是我们在大城市中已经失去的人类文化的重要组成部分。

It's a huge part of human culture that we have lost in big cities.

我们很少举办节日活动。

We don't do a lot of festivals.

我们很少举办这些真实的线下体验型节日活动。

It's rare that we do a lot of festivals, these real world experiences.

但我并不认为这是个蓝海，因为一旦人们意识到大家多么渴望参与节日和真实体验，许多公司也会迅速加入这一领域。

But I don't necessarily think it's a blue ocean because as soon as people realize how much people want to do festivals and want to do real world experiences, a lot of companies can also add this to the mix.

我认为真正具有防御性的，是社区、体验，以及拥抱持续的混乱变化，并不断创造出新事物。

I think what is defensible is community, experience, and embracing the constant chaotic change and coming up with new stuff all the time.

我正在押注的一件事，这与我一贯喜欢的从第一性原理出发进行推理有关。

One of the bets I'm making, and it goes back to what I like, again, reasoning up from first principles.

如果问题是，我能做些什么是AI代理或AI无法做到的？

If the question is, what can I do that an AI agent or AI could not do?

尤其是在人类将继续需要什么的背景下。

And especially in the context of what humans will continue to need.

当你出生时，丹，你天生就有一些需求。

When you were born, Dan, you were born with a bunch of needs.

这些需求，从根本上说，并没有改变。

And those needs, like, fundamentally haven't changed.

其中之一是联系。

One of them is, connection.

我认为你总能分辨出什么是真实的人际联系，什么是虚假的联系。

I think you'll always be able to discern what is real human connection from artificial connection.

我记得我16岁的时候，在心理学课上，老师讲到了恒河猴实验，说的是那只小猴子。

I remember being 16 years old in my psychology class at the back when they told me about the Rhesus Monkeys experiment, where they got a recess monkey, this little small little monkey.

他们假装那只猴子的母亲是金属丝网做的。

They pretended that its mother was a wire mesh.

于是他们做了一个金属丝网母亲。

So they made a wire mesh mother.

这只幼猴长大后成了心理变态，因为其最基本的人类连接需求未得到满足。

The recess monkey grows up to be a psychopath because it's fundamental human need of connection is not met.

后来他们用布料做了一个母亲，这只恒河猴长大后稍微稳定了一些。

They then did it with a cloth and the rhesus monkey grew up to be a bit more stable.

接着，很明显，他们展示了那些恒河猴拥有真实血肉母亲的案例，结果一切正常。

And then obviously, they showed the examples where the rhesus monkey actually had a physical flesh mother and it was it was fine.

所以我这么说，是为了说明我们有基本的需求，如果这些需求得不到满足，就会产生后果。

So I I say this to illuminate the fact that we have fundamental needs, that if not met, there will be consequences.

我们其中之一的需求就是连接。

One of ours is connection.

因此，作为一名内容创作者，我可以坐在这里告诉你今天发生了什么。

So as a content creator, I can sit here and I can tell you what happened today.

对吧？

Right?

我可以说，早上6点，有个人闯入了这家银行，然后离开了。

I can say, 06:00, this guy broke into this bank and then he left.

我认为这现在已经成为一种商品了。

I think that's a commodity now.

我认为，作为一名播客创作者、幕后的内容创作者、一名直播主，我能做的……嗯。

I think the thing that I can do as a podcaster, as a behind the scenes content creator, as a streamer Mhmm.

这就是我对直播主如此看好的原因，因为他们正在创造无可替代的人类内容。

This is why I'm so bullish on streamers, is they're making irreplaceably human content.

没有任何AI能告诉你更年期会发生什么。

There's no AI that can an AI can tell you what what happens in menopause.

AI无法告诉你它对更年期的亲身经历。

An AI can't tell you its experience of menopause.

是的。

Yes.

我们需要找到只有人类才能表达的东西。

We need to find something that only we can say as humans.

顺便说一句，每个人都有这样的独特之处。

And every single person has this, by the way.

但我们很多人都忽略了作为人类能够表达的内容。

But a lot of us overlook what we can say as a human.

我最近遇到了一位财务规划师，他的名字叫马特·皮彻。

I recently came across a financial planner, and his name is Matt Pitcher.

他做了一场TED演讲。

And he gave a TED Talk.

这场演讲讲述的是他与100位中了彩票的人见面的经历。

And the TED Talk is about what it was like for him to meet 100 people who'd won the lottery.

作为财务规划师，他与英国彩票机构有合作关系。

So he had a partnership as a financial planner with the British lottery.

每周都会有人中奖，之后他会去见他们，通常是在他们中奖一周后。

And every week, someone wins the lottery, and then he goes in and meets them a week later after they've discovered they've won the lottery.

哇。

Wow.

但他回溯了自己的经历，发现他过去做过很多不同的事情，于是他把这些点串联了起来。

But what he did is he looked back at his history, and he had lots of different things that he was doing, but he looked back at his history and he connected some dots.

他说：等等，有点不对劲。

And he said, hey, wait a second.

有些东西只有我能谈。

There's something that only I can talk about.

有些东西是我亲身经历、亲身体验过的——我坐在那些客厅里，直视着那些人的眼睛，只有我能讲述这些。

There's something that my thing that I've experienced, that I've lived through, that I've sat in those living rooms, I've sat eye to eye with those people, and only I can talk about that.

由于这场TED演讲，他在最初的几周内获得了五十万次观看，他的事业显然将迎来爆发，诸如此类，因为他找到了只有他才能说出的内容。

Because of that TED Talk, he's had half a million views in the first few weeks, and his business is obviously going to explode and all of those kinds of things because he found something that only he could say.

我相信，每个人都有自己独特的人性体验，是他人无法替代的，而且极具共鸣。

I believe that every person has something that's human that only they can say that's highly relatable.

我们第一次见面时，你跟我分享了一个有趣的哲学观点。

You shared with me an interesting philosophy, when we first met.

我为《CEO日记》做了第一期节目，获得了数百万次观看。

I did my first episode on Diary of a CEO, and it got millions of views.

我对你说：为什么我的节目会获得数百万次观看？

And I said to you, why is it that my episode got millions of views?

但几周前，有一位亿万富翁CEO的视频只有几十万次观看。

But a few weeks ago, there was a billionaire CEO who only got a few 100,000 views.

再往前几周，也有一位亿万富翁CEO的视频只有几十万次观看。

And a few weeks before that, there was a billionaire CEO who only got a few 100,000 views.

你对我说，丹尼尔，引起共鸣比令人印象深刻更重要。

And you said, Daniel, relatable beats impressive.

很多人认为他们必须治愈癌症、发射火箭去火星、赢得诺贝尔和平奖，或者让公司上市纳斯达克。

And a lot of people think that they have to cure cancer or launch a rocket to Mars or that they have to win a Nobel Peace Prize or float a company on the NASDAQ.

但实际上，每个人都要去发现我所说的个人知识产权或个人智力资本。

And actually, each individual person, we have to discover what I would call your personal intellectual property or your personal intellectual capital.

你的个人故事、你的个人方法论——你的成功与失败，你做过的一些对特定人群有趣的事情，这些是可以被量化、被描述、被还原出真实感受的经历，那就是你的个人方法论。

And your personal story, your personal playbooks, you know, your triumphs and your disasters, the things that you've done that are interesting to a certain group of people that you can quantify, that you can describe, that you can give me what it was like, those are your personal playbooks.

一旦你拥有了个人方法论，你就能通过人工智能将其转化为各种产品和服务。

Now, once you have personal playbooks, you have the ability to turn that into all sorts of products and services through AI.

但这一切都始于拥有个人方法论。

But it starts with having personal playbooks.

我认为这是很多内容创作者犯的关键错误：因为现在制作内容太容易了，所以很容易只是不停地生产内容。

I think this is the key mistake that a lot of content creators are making, which is because it's easy to make stuff now, it's tempting just to churn stuff out.

而在我所处的AI时代，我反而在减少内容产出。

Whereas I'm making less content now in a world of AI.

如果你看看我的领英账号，回溯三四年前，我那时只是在自己的‘推销式’帖子上不停地发东西。

If you look at my LinkedIn, I used to post If you go back like three or four years, I was just churning stuff out on my quote pitch.

全是空洞无物的内容。

Fluff, like, just fluff.

有点数据支撑。

Bit of data.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

现在我会想，既然每个人都能做到，那为什么我现在的领英帖子几乎每一条都是关于我个人经历的人性化故事呢？

Now I go, well, if everyone can do it, the reason why my LinkedIn, you'll see almost every post I post now is a human story about something I've gone through.

你会看到我的照片。

You'll see photos of me.

你会看到我家人的照片。

You'll see photos of my family.

你在说一些只有你才能说出的话。

You're saying stuff that only you can say

因为你亲身经历过。

because you live there.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们每个人都必须找到只有你才能说出的那个东西。

So we all have to find what is the thing that only you can say.

没有任何机器人或人工智能能说出这些话，因为它们没有经历过那样的生活。

And no robot, no AI can ever say that because it hasn't lived that experience.

是的。

Yeah.

它拥有所有的数据。

It's got all the data.

它拥有所有的知识，但没有亲身经历。

It's got all the knowledge, but it's got no lived experience.

而且从商业角度来看，AI永远无法站上舞台。

And also, from a business perspective, an AI can never stand on a stage.

AI永远无法主持一场晚宴。

An AI can never host a dinner party.

AI永远无法与人面对面，把手放在对方肩上说：嘿，我经历过你所经历的一切，你会好起来的。

An AI can never meet someone face to face and put their hand on their shoulder and say, Hey, I've been through what you've been through and you're going to be okay.

对吧？

Right?

所以所有这些事情AI都做不到。

So all of those things AI can't do.

因此，一旦你发现了只有你能说出的东西，它就变成了一种超能力。

So once you discover something that only you can say, it becomes a superpower.

我认为我今年表现最好的帖子，其实是向我的未婚妻求婚的那条。

I think my best performing post this year was actually me proposing to my fiancee.

当然了。

Course I was.

这正是一个无可替代的人类行为的绝佳例子，是的。

That's prime prime example of something that is irreplaceably human Yeah.

那就是单膝跪地，向另一个人类表达你对他们的爱。

Which is getting down on one one knee and telling another human being that you love them.

没有任何AI曾经做到过，我的意思是，你听好了。

There's no AI that has ever I mean, listen.

从未经历过。

Never experienced it.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，这件事本身就非常有人情味。

So and there's something so human about that.

这让人很有共鸣。

That's relatable.

这并不令人印象深刻。

It's not impressive.

这很有共鸣。

It's relatable.

从最基本的原则出发，我问自己：我所制作的内容，是否在与另一端的人建立最强烈的拟社会关系？

From first principles, I ask myself, type of content am I making is creating the strongest parasocial relationship with the person on the other end?

如果我在领英上发帖，说‘一切发生都有其原因’。

If I post on my LinkedIn, everything happens for a reason.

我在多大程度上推动了我们关系的发展？

How much have I moved the needle on our our relationship?

我和你的关系？

My relationship with you?

可能是零。

Probably zero.

如果我谈论一些更人性化的东西，一些我从人性角度所经历的挣扎。

If I talk about something more human, some struggles that I'm having from a human perspective.

如果我能更诚实、更真实、更开放，或者更坦诚地分享我正在经历的体验，就像那些直播主，他们一坐就是七个小时，我是不是上次说过，我问过一个直播主几个问题？

If I'm more honest, authentic, and open, or vulnerable about the experience I'm going through, like streamers who sit there for seven I'm I sat I think did I say this last time that I I asked a streamer a couple of questions?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我问那些直播主，比如，你有没有？

And I asked the streamers like, do do?

他却说，哦，没什么。

And he was like, oh, nothing.

我只是

I just

你坐在那里直播。

You sit there and stream.

连续七个小时，和观众一起看《朱迪法官》，顺便聊天。

For seven hours and watch Judge Judy with the audience and we chat.

我说，这正是拟社会关系的典型例子。

I say, and this is a prime example of parasocial.

他们真的会跟你说话。

They actually talk to you.

他们说：聊天。

They go, chat.

告诉我你是否认为x、y或z。

Let me know if you think x, y, or zed.

聊天。

Chat.

在聊天区留下w。

Drop w's in the chat.

那是朋友。

That's a friend.

这就是我对朋友的想法。

It's what I'm thing to a friend.

这是最强烈的拟社会关系。

It's the strongest parasocial relationship.

你提到的那场足球赛，观众最热烈的欢呼是给那些与观众建立联系的主播的。

What you said about the football game where the loudest cheers in the audience came for those streamers who were just connecting with people.

他们基本上与观众建立了友谊。

They've built friendships basically with their audience.

所以我认为，在人工智能时代，所有信息类内容——比如‘这件事发生了’或‘肠道微生物组是什么’——都将变得商品化。

So I think in a world of AI where just informational content, which is this thing happened or this is what the gut microbiome is, is going to become commoditized.

而不会被商品化的，是能够与观众建立关系的内容。

The thing that isn't commoditized is content that creates relationships with audiences.

正如你所说，这种关系还能转化为更深层次的体验，比如线下活动等等。我还有几个想法，还没完全向外界分享，但我只是在等合适的时机来公布这一切。

And then as you say, then converts that relationship into stronger experiences like IRL events and so on and I've so got a couple more ideas that I haven't fully shared with the world yet, but I'm just I'll wait for the right time about all of this stuff.

所以并不是单一的内容在增加价值。

So it's not one piece that is adding the value.

而是这些内容组成的生态系统。

It's the ecosystem of pieces.

所以是你能说出的、只有你才能表达的东西。

So it's having something to say that only you can say.

我们称之为你的个人方法论。

Let's call that your personal playbooks.

我们称之为你的个人知识产权。

Let's call that your personal intellectual property.

是那些与你同行的人，或者你的社群，对吧？

It's having the people or your community that you're going through life with, right?

我们称之为你的理想客户、你的理想用户画像，如果你想用市场营销的术语来更严谨地定义的话。

Let's call that your ideal customers, your ideal personas, if you want to make it a clinical definition in marketing speak.

这就形成了个人品牌。

That gives rise to a personal brand.

当这两者交汇时，你就拥有了个人品牌，对吧？

When those two things touch, you then end up with a personal brand, right?

仿佛凭空出现一样，你拥有了个人品牌，因为你拥有知识产权，并且有理想的客户与之产生共鸣。

As if by magic, you end up with a personal brand because you've got intellectual property and you've got an ideal customer who connects with that.

而你就是那个体现它的人。

And then you are the person who embodies it.

因此，你催生了它。

So you give rise to that.

那么问题来了，你如何从中赚钱？

And then the question is, well, how do you make money from that?

那就是将它产品化。

Well, you productize it.

你创建产品和服务。

You create products and services.

真正赚钱的是产品和服务的生态系统。

And it's the product and service ecosystem that makes money.

这不是一个产品或服务。

It's not one product or service.

过去，你只需要提供一个产品或服务就可以了。

It used to be that you could just have a product or service that you offer.

而现在，是产品和服务的生态系统。

And now it's the product and service ecosystem.

目前我看到赚最多钱的人，他们并不只做一件事。

The people that I see making the most money at the moment, they don't do one thing.

你不会只做一件事，对吧？

You don't do one thing, right?

如果我看看你的个人损益表，上个月很可能有27种不同的收入来源进入你的银行账户。

So if I look at your personal P and L, you've probably got 27 different ways that money came and hit your bank account last month.

包括演讲、播客、广告收入、赞助商、你持有的不同公司的股份等。

There's speaking, there's podcasting, there's AdSense revenue, there's sponsors, there's shareholdings in different companies that you've got.

可能还有一些你进行的一对一辅导。

There might be some one to one coaching that you might have done.

可能还有出场费。

There might be an appearance fee.

可能还有一些书籍版税。

There might be some book royalties.

有好几本书。

There's multiple books.

可能还有一些你推出的软件。

There might be some software that you've launched.

在人工智能时代之前，所有这些听起来都疯狂而混乱。

So there's all this stuff that sounds crazy and chaotic in a pre AI world.

但在人工智能时代之后，创建所有这些不同的产品和服务，不断推出新东西，与人们共同经历旅程，构建产品与服务生态系统，并不那么困难。

But in a post AI world, it's not that hard to create all these different products and services and to be launching different things and to be going on a journey with people and having a product and service ecosystem.

顺便说一下，我也是这样。

I'm the same, by the way.

我任何时候可能都参与着大约二十件不同的事情。

I've probably got 20 different things that I'm involved in at any given time.

我昨天在读一些文章，说实话，看了好几样东西。

I was reading yesterday that for the first time, I mean, was reading a few things.

我读到的一个有趣事情是，Spotify 表示，他们的顶尖开发者自去年十二月以来就没写过一行代码，这全靠 AI，而这又完全是另一个话题了。

One of the interesting things I read is that Spotify said their best developers haven't written a line of code since December, thanks to AI, which, again, is a whole another conversation.

也许我们该聊聊这个。

Maybe we should touch on that.

你真正认为哪些职业在五年后会不复存在？

What are the occupations that you genuinely believe won't exist five years from now as we know them?

人们说律师行业会被颠覆。

People say lawyers are going to be disrupted.

我最近遇到一个法律问题需要解决，一开始找律师事务所，估计要花五万英镑，也就是六万美元。

Well, I recently had a legal case that I had to resolve, and it was going to cost us £50,000, so $60,000, as I start the process with a law firm.

我们决定自己动手，用了 Claude，结果只花了每月二十美元，就解决了整个流程。

We took matters into our own hands, we used Claude, and we actually fixed the process and resolved the process by spending $20 month.

Claude 给了我们如何处理此事的指导，提供了多个决策树路径，列出了我们需要的文件，还给了一个 Excel 表格，告诉我们谈判时该说什么、不该说什么。

And Claude gave us a coaching session on how to handle it, gave us multiple decision tree pathways, gave us the documents that we would need, gave us an Excel spreadsheet of do say this, don't say this in the negotiation.

这让我意识到，天啊，律师们将来要做什么呢？

And it made me realize, my goodness, what are lawyers going to do?

因为如果他们只是靠计时收费来复述合同，我不再需要这种服务了。

Because if all they do is charge for time for money to regurgitate contracts, I don't need that anymore.

多项报告称，截至2026年，传统法律科技和数据公司已损失了约20%的价值。

Multiple reports say legacy legal tech and data firms have lost roughly 20% of their value so far in 2026.

在过去一周内，像这样的上市公司市值蒸发了2800亿美元。

$280,000,000,000 was wiped off the value of publicly traded companies like that in the last week.

这太疯狂了，因为我们根本不需要这些了。

Like, it's wild, because we're not going to need that.

我不认为我们还会需要当前这种商业模式。

I don't believe we're going to need these business models as they currently stand.

我认为它们必须改变和适应。

I think they're going to have to change and adapt.

我认为律师的角色需要彻底重塑。

I think a lawyer needs to take a completely different shape.

他们将是人工智能在场时的关键人物，兼具商业教练、律师和提示工程师的特质，律师的工作将转变为与你合作优化AI提示，帮助你达成解决方案。

Part business coach, part lawyer, part prompt engineer, they're going to be the key person of AI in the room who the lawyer's job will be to work with you on your AI prompting and help you get the resolution.

你可能需要的律师时间会少得多。

You're probably going to need a lot less of a lawyer's time.

蓝领工作已经贬值，我们已经看到那些动手干活、上门修缮房屋的人处于贬值的角色。

Blue collar work has been devalued, and we've seen people who work with their hands and people who, turn up to your house and fix your house in a devalued role.

在未来几年内，这些角色可能会得到最大程度的提升，水管工的收入常常超过律师，仅仅因为经济的本质已经发生了变化。

And it could be in the next couple of years, these are the roles that are elevated the most and that plumbers regularly earn more than lawyers, simply because the nature of the economy has changed.

在过去的二十五年里，我学到的一件事是，事物总在来回摆动。

One thing I've learned over the last twenty five years is the pendulum swings.

很少有事情能保持不变。

Very few things stay the same.

总有一个来回摆动的钟摆，而这个钟摆曾经是：哦，是的，屏幕背后的白领工作才是高价值的。

There is always this swinging pendulum, and the swinging pendulum is like, oh yeah, white collar work behind the screen is the high value thing.

哦，不，真正高价值的其实是动手的蓝领工作。

Oh, no, it's actually blue collar work with your hands.

你提到过供需关系。

You talked about supply and demand.

政府通过推出大学贷款，干扰了孩子们自然寻找世界机会的方式。

The government disrupted the natural way children go out and find opportunities in the world by making university loans come along.

他们说，每个人都可以申请大学贷款去上大学。

And they said, Oh, everyone can just take out a university loan and go to university.

事实上，你必须、也应该去上大学，背负债务，否则如果你没有大学学位，就永远找不到工作。

In fact, you must and you should go to university, get yourself in debt, or else you'll never get a job anywhere if you don't do a university degree.

许多本该成为水管工、电工、混凝土工或砖瓦工的年轻人，却跑去攻读蝴蝶交配习性的硕士学位，或者一些毫无就业前景的随机专业，最终背上了六万到八万美元的债务，只为获得一个根本没人需要的学位。

And lots of young people who should have been plumbers, electricians, and concreters, and bricklayers went off and got a master's degree in the mating habits of butterflies and you know, some random degree that doesn't have a job attached, and they ended up in $60.70, $80,000 worth of debt to get this degree that no one was asking for.

这种市场扭曲导致我们现在缺乏足够的水管工和电工，而成为技工如今正是蓝海机会。

That market distortion means that we now don't have many plumbers and electricians, and the Blue Ocean is now being a tradesperson.

很多公司都会经历一个阶段，不再专注于最重要的事情——销售，而是被行政事务拖垮。

There's a phase a lot of companies hit where they're no longer doing the most important thing, which is selling, and they get really bogged down with admin.

这种变化往往悄然发生，直到已经发生时你才注意到。

And it's often something that creeps up slowly and you don't really notice until it's happened.

慢慢地，动力开始流失。

Slowly, momentum starts to leak out.

我们曾经也遇到过这种情况，而我们的赞助商Pipedrive是我十年前发现的一个解决方案。

This happened to us and our sponsor Pipedrive was a fix I came across ten years ago.

从那以后，我在不同公司里的团队一直都在使用它。

And ever since, my teams across my different companies have continued to use it.

Pipedrive是一个简单但功能强大的销售客户关系管理系统，能让你清晰掌握销售漏斗中的所有交易进展。

Pipedrive is a simple but powerful sales CRM that gives you the visibility on any deals in your pipeline.

它还能自动化许多繁琐、重复且耗时的销售环节，从而每月为你节省大量时间，让你能重新专注于销售工作。

It also automates a lot of the tedious, repetitive, and time consuming parts of the sales process, which in turn saves you so many hours every single month, which means you can get back to selling.

早早决定切换到Pipedrive是一个真正的转折点，它帮助我们始终聚焦于正确的事情。

Making that early decision to switch to Pipedrive was a real game changer, and it's kept the right things front of mind.

我最喜爱的功能是Pipedrive能够将客户关系管理系统与多个邮箱账户同步，让整个团队都能在一个平台上协同工作。

My favorite feature is Pipedrive's ability to sync your CRM with multiple email inboxes so your entire team can work together from one platform.

而且，受益的不只是我们。

And we aren't the only ones benefiting.

超过十万家公司使用Pipedrive来发展业务。

Over a 100,000 companies use Pipedrive to grow their business.

所以，如果你觉得我所说的有共鸣，请访问pipedrive.com/ceo，你可以获得三十天的免费试用。

So if something I've said resonates, head over to pipedrive.com/ceo, where you can get a thirty day free trial.

无需信用卡或任何付款。

No credit card or payment required.

史蒂夫，是哪一天？

Steve, what day?

我正在给自己泡一杯美味的咖啡。

Just making myself a delicious coffee.

从冰箱里拿的？

From the freezer?

从冰箱里。

From the freezer.

你还没听说过Cometeer吗？

Have you not heard about Cometeer?

没有。

No.

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

这将会改变你的生活。

This is gonna change your life.

几个月前，这家公司的创始人马特寄了一大批这种咖啡到我们在伦敦的办公室。

A couple of months ago, the founder of this business called Matt sent a big shipment of this coffee to our office in London.

大多数人不知道的是，咖啡的加工过程会流失大量风味。

What most people don't know is that the processing of coffee takes out a lot of the taste.

所以他们的做法是在风味最浓郁的瞬间进行速冻，然后通过邮寄将咖啡以这种小冰块的形式寄给你。

So what they do is they flash freeze it at the optimal moment when it's most tasty, and they send you in the post the coffee in these little frozen ice cubes.

现在，马特寄了一大批到我的办公室。

Now Matt sent a big shipment to my office.

我把它们移到了厨房。

I moved it to the kitchen.

我对团队说，你们随意享用。

I said to the team, knock yourselves out.

然后我在我们的Slack频道里看到很多人发消息说，天啊。

And then I saw so many messages in our Slack channel of people going, oh my god.

那是什么鬼东西？

What the hell is that?

太好喝了。

It's so delicious.

我每天早上只要按一下这东西背面的小按钮，把它取出来就行了。

All I have to do is pop it out in the morning using the little button on the back of this thing.

我倒入热水，然后搅拌一下。

I pour my hot water in, and I mix it.

就这样完成了。

And that is done.

如果你访问 cometeer.com/steven，首次购买Cometeer咖啡可享受30美元优惠。

You can get $30 off your first order of Cometeer coffee if you go to cometeer.com/steven.

试试看吧，然后请通过Instagram私信我、LinkedIn联系我，告诉我你是否和我一样喜欢它。

Try it, and please, Instagram DM me, LinkedIn me, and let me know if you love it as much as I do.

我查看了根据AI预测最可能被颠覆的十大职业。

I was looking at the top 10 jobs according to AI that are most likely to be disrupted.

里面提到了司机，麦肯锡估计到2030年会有30%的司机被自动化取代，还有客服代表和呼叫中心人员，我以前就做过这个工作。

And it said things like drivers, with McKinsey estimating 30% of them will be automated by 2030, customer service representative and call center reps, which I used to be.

我也是。

Same.

根据一些预测，部署AI后，人员编制将减少50%。

50% headcount reductions after AI rollout, according to some estimates.

有些甚至高达80%。

Some go up to about 80%.

我昨天在我的信息流上看到一个工具，它能发出真实的人类声音，完全无法与真人区分，刚刚上线就引起了巨大轰动。

I actually saw a tool on my timeline yesterday that is real human voice, indistinguishable from humans, that's just launched and is causing a huge stir.

所以人们认为这将取代更多客服岗位。

So that they're thinking that will replace even more of the customer service roles.

我确实和Klarna的CEO聊过，简而言之，他说我们目前有7000名员工。

I I did speak to the CEO of Klarna, TLDR, as he said, we currently have 7,000 employees.

他说，到了夏天，由于人工智能的应用，我们可以将员工人数缩减到3000人。

We're going be able to get down to 3,000, he said, after summer because of AI.

我们会让现有的客户服务团队成员去做更多定制化的高端VIP服务吗？

And we'll be using our existing team members that are in customer service roles to do more sort of bespoke white glove VIP stuff?

高端服务的需求会上升。

VIP stuff will go up.

事实上，杰瓦隆悖论表明，许多去人性化、重复性的工作将会消失。

In fact, Jevalon's paradox would suggest that a lot of the dehumanizing repetitive work will go away.

但如果AI机器人能非常高效地为VIP人士安排会面，那么这类工作量反而会激增。

But actually, if there are AI bots that are really good at setting appointments for a VIP human person to have a conversation, then that work will go through the roof.

因为目前大多数公司都希望开展更多VIP对话，但问题在于，低级别的预约安排工作根本没人做。

Because one of the reasons that people, like right now, most companies wish they could have more VIP conversations, but the appointment setting, they don't have a lot of the low level appointment setting stuff happening.

如果预约安排的成本降为零，那么VIP级别服务的可负担性就会大大提高。

And if the appointment setting stuff, if the cost of that goes to zero, then the affordability of the VIP level treatment becomes much more feasible.

零售收银员、行政助理、簿记员和工资 clerk、销售开发代表、仓库工人，亚马逊等公司报告称，机器人现已在约40%的履约任务中协助或取代人工。

Retail cashiers, admin assistants, bookkeepers and payroll clerk, sales development reps, warehouse workers, with Amazon and others reporting that robots now assist or replace labor in roughly 40% of fulfillment tasks.

还有波士顿动力公司的那段视频，我会放到屏幕上，展示了一个类人机器人在工厂里工作。

And that Boston Dynamics video, which I'll put up on the screen, shows a humanoid robot working in a factory.

这些变化中不错的一点是，很多这类工作其实是很多人并不喜欢做的。

What's nice about some of this is that many of the jobs here are jobs that a lot of people don't actually like doing.

它们重复、缺乏人性。

They are repetitive and dehumanizing.

它们常常在深夜。

They're late night.

它们需要早起。

They're early mornings.

所以，如果真的存在杰文斯悖论——即出现了一些更有趣、更人性化、更吸引人、更高端、更混乱的工作，那么这可能是一件非常积极的事。

So potentially, provided there is a Jevlin's paradox that something happens that's more fun, more humanizing, more interesting, more VIP, more chaotic, all of that sort of stuff, it could be a very positive thing.

快餐店员工。

Fast food workers.

我以前做过快餐

I used to be a fast

服务员。

food worker.

我也是，在麦当劳。

So did I, in McDonald's.

我觉得就干了两天。

I think it was two days.

我在麦当劳干了两年。

I did two years at McDonald's.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

因为这种颠覆正在以史无前例的速度发生，这些人都去哪儿了？

Because this disruption is happening at record speeds, where do all these people go?

因为你知道，即使在某些例子中，哦，他们可以做AI标注。

Because, you know, even in examples, oh, they could do AI labeling.

他们需要接受再培训和技能提升。

They need to be upskilled and trained.

我担心的是，破坏的速度赶不上新机会的创造速度。

And I worry that the rate of disruption isn't gonna meet the rate of creation of new opportunities.

我真的非常担心这个问题。

And I really do worry about this.

比如，我觉得人们会好奇，为什么我在这个播客里反复谈论这些话题。

Like, I think people wonder why I have these conversations on this podcast over and over again.

我做这个播客访谈的哲学是，我会对我的团队说，史蒂夫，我们要不要聊一聊这个话题——肠道微生物组？

My philosophy to having conversations on this podcast is basically, I'll say to my team, I'll say, Steve, do want have a conversation about this particular subject, the gut microbiome?

然后我会说，我们已经聊过了。

And I'll say, we've covered it.

这实际上意味着我对这个话题不再好奇了。

Which basically means I'm no longer curious.

是的。

Yep.

我有答案。

I have the answers.

我知道关于数万亿的肠道微生物以及肠道与大脑的连接。

I know about the trillions of gut micro and I know how the gut brain access.

我们继续吧。

Let's move on.

好的。

Yep.

我不断谈论人工智能，是因为我觉得我得不到好的答案。

I keep having these conversations about AI because I feel like I'm getting no good answers.

好的。

Okay.

有趣的是。

So here's what's interesting.

你拥有某种精英思维，那就是：我该如何组织社会，让每个人都有工作、都有事做，对吧？

There is something which you have, which is this elite mindset, which is how do I organize society so that everyone gets a job and everyone does stuff, right?

这就是许多人陷入的陷阱。

And this is the trap that many people have fallen into.

而这实际上是社会主义的根源。

And it's actually at the root cause of socialism.

因此，社会主义的根源在于，我认为自己比所有人都更懂，我会设计一种管理社会的方式，让每个人都得到照顾。

So the root of socialism is that I know better than everybody else, and I will come up with a way of running society so everyone gets looked after.

这是一种自上而下的思维模式。

That's the top down mindset.

真正有效的疯狂思维是：如果我们给予人们教育和培训，让机会透明化，真正让民众了解市场实际情况，并提供价格信号数据，他们就会自我组织和重新调整，引发一场自下而上的变革，并找到令人惊叹的有趣事情去做。

The crazy mindset that actually works is if we give people education and training and we make opportunity transparent and we actually let people know what's actually happening in the market and we give them price signal data, they will self organize and reorganize, and they will have a bottom up revolution, and they'll find amazing, interesting things to do.

钱就在经济之中。

The money is in the economy.

你觉得这是真的吗？

You think that's true?

这叫做资本主义。

That's called capitalism.

我知道，

I know,

但资本主义是有效的。

but Capitalism works.

在

In The

以英国为例吧，因为我们都在对肤色问题大吵大闹。

UK let's take The UK as an example because we're all just screaming at each other about brown people.

我们根本没有谈论真正的威胁，那就是人工智能带来的根本性经济冲击。

We're not talking about the the real alien, which is, like, the fundamental economic disruption of AI.

是的。

Yeah.

昨天发布了一份报告，显示英国的失业率已达到

There's a report that came out yesterday showing that unemployment in The UK has hit

上升了25%。

It's 25 up.

青年失业率增长了超过25%。

And youth unemployment has grown by more than 25%.

现在，16到24岁的人群中，有16.1%处于失业状态。

It's like 16.1% of people that are between 16 and 24 are unemployed now.

但我们依然没有在讨论经济问题。

And we're still not talking about the economy.

我们只在谈论棕色人种。

We're talking about brown people.

当人们感到无法进步时，就会寻找替罪羊。

When people feel that they can't get ahead, they look for somebody to blame.

这在历史上是一贯如此的。

And this is historically consistent.

真正发生的是，政府在经济中的规模变得太大了。

What is really happening is that the government has become so big in the economy.

英国政府如今占英国经济总支出的45%到50%。

The UK government is now 45% to 50% of all spending in The UK economy.

这本质上是社会主义，或者正在走向社会主义。

That's essentially a socialist or it's getting socialist.

政府的每一笔支出都会造成市场扭曲，无论其用途是什么。

Every amount of government spend is a market distortion, regardless of what it's for.

我说过，政府确实应该在很多方面花钱，但所有政府支出都会造成市场扭曲。

And I'm saying there are plenty of things governments should be spending money on, but all government spending is a market distortion.

这不是由市场驱动的，而且支出存在垄断，因此它是一种市场扭曲。

It's not market driven and there is a monopoly on spend, so therefore it is a market distortion.

政府支出越多，市场扭曲就越多。

The more government spending you have, the more market distortions you have.

你所说的市场扭曲是什么意思？

What do you mean by market distortions?

所以一个

So a

市场扭曲是指市场无法正常运作，因为像政府这样的大型机构在花钱，削弱了价格信号，掩盖了市场的现实。

market distortion is where the markets are not really able to function because there is some big organization like the government spending money and taking away price signals and taking away the realities of the market.

一个很好的例子就是学生贷款发生的情况。

So a great example is what happened with student loans.

在资本主义社会中，年轻人本会听说：天哪，泥瓦匠紧缺。

So rather than well, in a capitalist society, what would have happened is that young people would have heard, oh my goodness, there's a shortage of bricklayers.

你听说泥瓦匠一天能赚300英镑吗？

Have you heard that bricklayers are making £300 a day?

哇哦。

Wow.

我也想一天赚300英镑。

I would love to make £300 a day.

我要去当泥瓦匠。

I'm gonna go be a bricklayer.

猜怎么着？

Guess what?

那就是泥瓦匠学徒。

It's a bricklayer's apprentice.

我要去当学徒。

I'm gonna go and be an apprentice.

我要边学手艺边拿工资。

I'm gonna get paid to learn this trade.

这样一来，市场就会自然推动人们去当泥瓦匠。

And there would be a market driven pull towards being a bricklayer.

年轻人会去银行工作，而银行会说：‘我们能不能为你支付金融学位的学费？因为我们急需更多有金融学位的人，而且我们会实际为你支付这些费用。’

A young person would get a job at a bank and the bank would say, Hey, can we please pay for you to do a finance degree because we need more people who've got a finance degree and we will actually pay for you to go through that.

这才是一个正常的市场。

So that's a functioning market.

这本质上是基于经济中所需的需求、愿望和事物。

It's basically based on, needs and wants and things that are needed within the economy.

政府所做的，是制造了一种所谓的市场扭曲。

What the government did is they created what's called a market distortion.

他们对所有年轻人说：‘我们会无限制地向你们提供贷款，让你们去修任何你们想上的大学课程。’

They said to all young people, We are going to give you as much lending as you like to go out and take whatever university courses you want.

没有价格数据。

There's no price data.

没有信号数据。

There's no signaling data.

只要你想要借5万英镑，就可以去上任何课程。

It's just if you want to borrow £50,000, you can go to any course.

如果你真的对蝴蝶的繁殖习性感兴趣，那就去读一个相关的硕士学位吧。

If you're really interested in the breeding habits of butterflies, go and do a master's degree in that.

开心的日子，对吧？

Happy days, right?

有没有与之相关的工作并不重要。

It doesn't matter whether there are jobs associated with it.

你必须去读大学学位。

You must go and get a university degree.

于是他们建立了一整套体系，推动年轻人背负5万英镑的债务，去攻读一个根本没人需要的学位。

So they set up an entire system that pushed young people to go get £50,000 worth of debt and do a degree that no one was asking for.

这是一种市场扭曲。

That's a market distortion.

我们现在面临着超过2800亿英镑的债务泡沫，这些债务很可能永远无法偿还。

We now have a bubble of over £280,000,000,000 worth of debt that will probably never be repaid.

我们这一代年轻人背负着这种债务，它剥夺了他们所有的动力。

We have an entire generation of young people who are saddled with this debt that takes away all motivation.

努力工作没有意义，因为他们要缴纳高额税收。

There's no point in working because they pay such high taxes.

每次他们还款偿还学生贷款时，支付600美元，但债务却增加了650美元，这简直荒谬至极。

Every single time they make a payment to pay off their student loan, they pay $600 but the debt goes up by $650 It's absolutely insane.

这正是政府干预市场、制造市场扭曲的典型例子，如今我们有数千亿美元的债务让无数人感到愤怒和沮丧，因为他们被困在几十年都无法摆脱的学生债务中。

And that's a classic example of governments meddling with the markets, creating a market distortion, and now we have hundreds of billions of dollars worth of people who are very angry, very upset, because they are trapped in a student debt that will not go away for decades.

英国前首相里希·苏纳克上周发表了一篇文章，你可能看过，他在文中表示，如果英国不能解决生产率问题并抓住机遇，国家就有沦为旅游主题公园的风险。

Rishi Sunak, the former prime minister of The UK, wrote an article last week, which you might have seen, where he said that if The UK fails to fix its productivity problems and seize the area opportunity, the country risks becoming a tourist theme park.

是的，连个像样的旅游主题公园都算不上。

Yeah, not even a good tourist theme park.

英国没什么自然资源，至少其他许多国家都有海滩、山脉和滑雪场，而英国却没有多少这类资源。

There's not a lot, At least a lot of other countries have beaches and mountain ranges and ski resorts, and The UK doesn't have a lot of that.

我们必须让市场正常运作。

We have to let markets function.

我们面临的问题——这实际上是你陷入的陷阱——是试图自上而下地规划社会，这就是社会主义。

The issue that we have, and this is actually a trap that you're falling into, is trying to figure out top down how do we organize society, which is socialism.

对吧？

Right?

试图自上而下地为所有人解决这个问题，这种思维是社会主义的，但它行不通。

The top down approach of trying to fix this problem for everybody is the socialist mindset, and it it doesn't work.

如果你是首相

If you were the prime minister

是的。

Yeah.

如果你能看到即将到来的未来，你会怎么做？

And you can see the future that's coming, what would you do?

所以英国最需要做的第一件事是减少政府干预。

So the number one thing The UK needs to do is reduce government involvement.

我们需要将政府支出削减到低于35%。

We need to get the government spending down less than 35%.

你从哪里削减？

Where'd you cut?

关键是你需要明白，其实有很多地方可以削减。

So the key thing that you need is that you need Well, there's loads of places to cut.

对吧？

Right?

比如插手建设风力发电场、太阳能发电场，花上400亿美元做这些事，还阻止企业开采我们脚下就有的天然气，这简直是疯了。

Like getting involved in trying to do wind farms and solar farms and all of this $40,000,000,000 and all this sort of stuff, preventing companies from accessing natural gas that is just sitting under our feet is a crazy thing to do.

花200亿美元试图把我们的一个岛屿送人，这简直是疯了。

Spending $20,000,000,000 trying to give away one of our islands to someone is a crazy thing to do.

政府现在在各种荒唐的事情上花钱。

There's all sorts of crazy things that the government is spending money on.

官僚主义是一种疯狂的开支。

Bureaucracy is a crazy spend.

你知道伯明翰市议会吗？

Do you know the Birmingham City Council?

他们想从SAP迁移到Oracle。

They wanted to migrate from SAP to Oracle.

那是什么？

What's that?

从SAP的客户关系管理系统迁移到Oracle的客户关系管理系统，这是一种软件系统。

From a CRM system with SAP to a CRM system with Oracle, a software system.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们想从一个软件系统迁移到另一个软件系统。

So they wanted to migrate from one software system to another software system.

他们认为这将花费1900万英镑，单是这笔迁移费用就已经非常高了。

They thought that it would cost £19,000,000, which in itself is a very high amount to migrate from one software to another software.

这花费了2.2亿英镑。

It costs £220,000,000

所以你的意思是，你认为政府应该少管一些事？

So you're saying that you think the government should just do less stuff?

他们应该少参与一些事务。

They should be involved in less stuff.

因为现在的情况是，政府支出太多，导致成功带来的收益被税收侵蚀，人们纷纷离开。

Because what's happening right now is that there is so much government spending that the benefits for succeeding are being eroded by taxation and people are just leaving.

听好了，关键是这样。

See, here's the thing.

在资本主义制度下，资本主义唯一的益处就是创造性的企业家精神，对吧？

With capitalism, the only benefit of capitalism is the creative entrepreneurial process, Right?

这种创造性的企业家精神催生了卓越的企业和惊人的创新，为每个人的生活带来了更好、更快、更便宜的产品，这都源于资本主义。

That creative entrepreneurial process that produces amazing companies and amazing innovations, and it creates stuff that is better, faster, and cheaper for everybody's lives, that comes from capitalism.

但如果你剥夺了人们从事这些活动的激励，那么你的国家就根本不会发生这些事情。

But if you take away the incentives for doing that, you essentially don't have that happen within your country.