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这可能是你做过最蠢的事了。
That is the stupidest thing you can ever do.
对于一个刚开始想让钱增值的人来说，最重要的是什么？
What what is the most important thing for someone who's just trying to grow their money?
我从我妈那儿学到了这一点，后来我还专门为此创办了一家公司。
So I learned this from my mother, and I actually built a whole company around it.
是的。
Yeah.
她在这儿呢。
There she is.
我好一阵子没看过这张照片了。
So I haven't seen that picture in a while.
天哪。
Damn.
我的意思是，她做的那件事，表现实在太出色了。
I mean, what she did, the performance was extraordinary.
太了不起了。
Extraordinary.
就靠着这份收入，她供我和我哥哥读完了大学。
And with that, she put my brother and I through college.
她一直照顾着全家，后来家里遇到了困难。
She took care of her family, and they fell on hard times.
看到结果的时候，我就下定决心了。
When I saw the results, I said, that's it.
我以后的投资方式，就要这样。
That's how I'm gonna invest for the rest of my life.
你给我详细讲讲这个吧。
So talk me through this.
越详细越好。
Go on as much detail as possible.
我们先从这一点说起。
Let's start with this.
凯文·奥利里，也就是‘神奇先生’，是一位白手起家的百万富翁和投资者，他创办并出售过多家价值数十亿美元的公司。
Kevin O'Leary, aka Mr Wonderful, is the self made millionaire and investor who's built and sold companies for billions.
很多人不喜欢我，因为我太直率了。
There's a lot of people don't like me for my bloodness.
我不在乎，因为总有些人缺乏远见，结果陷入债务，却还乱花钱，一顿午饭花28美元。
I don't care because there's people that don't think ahead and find themselves mired in debt, but then pissing away money, spending $28 for lunch.
这简直太蠢了。
I mean, that's just stupid.
那房子呢？
What about the house?
人们常犯的错误就是买了太贵的房子。
The mistake that people make is they buy too much house.
房贷和房屋维护费用绝不能超过你收入的三分之一。
Never let the mortgage and the cost of maintaining house be more than one third of your income.
那么，你爱上的人，对你的选择有多大影响？
Now how much does the person that you fall in love with have an impact?
你开玩笑吧？
Are you kidding?
这可是重中之重。
It's everything.
我做过一些研究，大多数婚姻其实能挺过出轨。
And I did some research, and most marriages can survive infidelity.
但挺不过财务压力。
They can't survive financial stress.
但如果在座的每个人只做这一件事，你们就能攒下一百五十多万美元。
But if everybody that's listening does this one thing, you will have over a million and a half dollars.
凯文，每个人都能当企业家吗？
Kevin, can anybody be an entrepreneur?
不能。
No.
只有三分之一的人能成为成功的企业家，因为要成功，你必须做到几件事。
Only a third of people can become successful entrepreneurs because there's a couple of things that you must achieve to be successful.
首先
First
在继续这期节目之前，有个小事想说一下。
Quick one before we get back to this episode.
耽误你三十秒时间。
Just give me thirty seconds of your time.
我想说两件事。
Two things I wanted to say.
第一，非常感谢你们每周都收听我们的节目。
The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week.
这对我们所有人来说意义重大，我们从未想过能走到今天这一步，简直像一场梦。
It means the world to all of us and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place.
但更重要的是，我们觉得这才刚刚开始。
But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started.
如果你喜欢我们做的内容，请加入那24%定期收听这个播客的听众，关注我们在这个应用上的更新。
And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app.
我向你保证一件事。
Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you.
我会尽我所能，把这档节目做得越来越好，无论现在还是未来。
I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future.
我们会邀请你希望我对话的嘉宾，也会继续做你热爱的那些内容。
We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show.
谢谢。
Thank you.
凯文，我想请你做一件事，这其实挺难的，因为如果有人让我这么做，我也会觉得不容易。
Kevin, I'm gonna ask you to do something which is quite difficult because I'd find it quite hard if someone asked me to do this.
但在深入细节之前，你能先给我一个宏观的视角，谈谈你的创业和投资生涯吗？
But before we get into the detail, can you give me a 30,000 foot view on your entrepreneurship and investing career?
就挑三个最关键的重点，简单说一下，我们之后再细聊。
Just the just the three bullet points that are most pertinent before we dig into those specifics.
我接触过的每一个创业者，只要走到今天这一步，都经历过一个决定性的时刻，正是那个时刻推着他们走上了这条路。
Every entrepreneur I've ever talked to that finds himself where I am today has a defining moment where they are pushed into this path.
每个人都会记得那一刻，而且一辈子都忘不掉。
It's something they can remember, and they remember it in perpetuity.
我也记得我的那个时刻。
And I'll remember my moment.
我在一家冰淇淋店被开除了。
Getting fired in an ice cream store.
就这么简单。
That simple.
第一天上班，让我负责给顾客舀冰淇淋。
First day on the job, asked to serve and scoop ice cream.
我一整天都在干这个。
And I did that all day.
但顾客试吃的时候，会把口香糖吐在地上。
But when people sample ice cream, they get a taster and they take their gum out and they throw it on the floor.
到了晚上，总得有人把地上的口香糖刮干净。
Somebody's gotta scrape their gum off the floor at the end of the day.
我之所以接那份工作，是因为对鞋店的一个女孩特别感兴趣，想着干完活还能顺便跟她多待会儿。
I only took that job because I was very interested in a girl who's working in the shoe store and I figured I could, you know, hang out with her afterwards.
结果我看见她在等我，店老板却对我说：‘你得去把地上的口香糖刮掉。’
And I saw her waiting for me and the woman who owned the store said, You've got a scrape to come off the floor.
我可不想让她看到我跪在地上刮地。
And I didn't want her to see me on my knees with a scraper.
那形象太差了，影响我的人设。
It was bad for my brand.
我当时还在上高中呢。
I was in high school.
她却说：‘不行，你必须得干。’
And she said, no, no, you have to do it.
我说：‘你雇我是来舀冰淇淋的，又不是来刮地的。’
I said, you hired me as a scooper, not a scraper.
她回我：‘那干脆把你开了吧。’
She said, how about you're fired?
我当时根本不懂那是什么意思。
And I didn't know what that meant.
那对我来说是个转折点，我突然明白这世上的人分两种。
And it was the defining moment for me because I realized there's two kinds of people in the world.
一种是开店的，一种是跪在地上刮地板污垢的。
There's people that own the store, and there's people that scrape the shit off the floor.
你得想清楚自己想成为哪一种。
And you have to decide who you are.
我不是说当员工不好。
And I'm not saying being an employee is a bad thing.
完全不是。
Not at all.
那一刻我突然醒悟了。
But for me, it hit me.
真的，一下子就想明白了。
It just hit me.
凯文，有个礼物是给你的。
Kevin, there's a present for you.
我们每位客人都会送一份礼物。真的吗？
We give a present to all of our guests Really?
就在那层黑色下面。
Underneath that black.
我可以打开吗？
Can I open it?
当然可以打开。
You can open it.
我只要把这个拿掉就行。
I just take this off.
哎呀，你看这个。
Oh, look at that.
你听过这个故事了。
You've heard the story.
就是长这样，只不过那是黑色的口香糖。
That is exactly how it looked, except it was black gum.
那块地砖也一模一样。
And that was exactly the tile.
就跟那种墨西哥风格的地砖一模一样。
It was just like that Mexican tile.
这真让我有点毛骨悚然。
That's really freaking me out.
所以你被要求去刮掉地上的口香糖，对吧？
So you were asked to scrape gum off a
对，就是那种。
Mexican Yes, just like that.
要刮的话，得跪在地上一点一点弄。
And in order to do that, you've got to get down on your knees and do it.
我实在干不了这个。
And I just couldn't do it.
然后，你就知道后面发生的事了。
And I and I and then you know the rest of the story.
我后来终于有钱把整个商场都推平了，我们回去找她，想谢谢她，要不是她把我从跑步机上推下去，我可能就不会走上这条路。
I eventually could afford to bulldoze the whole mall if I went to, and we went back to meet her and thank her for her pushing me off the treadmill into that direction.
可她已经不在了，那儿开了一家小杂货店。
And she was gone, and there was a bodega there instead.
你刚才提到，人生中其实有两种人。
You said there that you realize that there's kind of two people in life.
一种是开店的人，比如开冰淇淋店的老板；另一种是蹲在地上刮地板的人。
There's the entrepreneurs, the person that owns the ice cream parlor, there's the person that scrapes it off the floor.
这让我想到一个问题：你觉得每个人都有可能当老板吗？
That provoked a question to me, which is, do you think anybody can own the ice cream parlor?
我。
I.
你觉得每个人都能成为创业者吗？
Do you think anybody can be an entrepreneur?
不行。
No.
我试过教别人，也一直在我合作的那些首席执行官身上做指导。
I've tried to teach it, and I mentor it all the time to the CEOs that I work with.
有些人确实具备做这件事的特质。
There are some attributes of people that can do this.
比如一定的风险承受力，一定的专注力，还有最近我越来越相信的——因果报应。
A certain element of risk tolerance, a certain element of focus, and then the other element, which I've really started to believe in of late, is karma.
运气。
Luck.
你得有运气。
You need to be lucky.
拿破仑曾经被人问过：你最欣赏的将军是谁？
It's like Napoleon was once asked, who are your favorite generals?
他说：我最欣赏的将军，都是运气好的将军，我的幸运将军们。
And he said, my favorite generals are lucky generals, my lucky generals.
我现在越来越觉得，在人生中，尤其是创业这条路上，成功和失败之间的差别非常明显，而在这方面，我可能是接触得最多的人之一，毕竟几十年来我做了这么多投资。
And I'm starting to think that in life, particularly entrepreneurship, you look at the difference, the path of success and failure, and nobody's exposed to it more than I am in terms of how many investments I've made over the decades.
如果你想知道一个具体的比例，我经常在哈佛给学员们上课，
I think if you want a percentage, you know, I teach these cohorts at at Harvard.
我是那里的高级研究员，
I'm an executive fellow there.
我对这份工作感到非常自豪。
I'm very proud of that work.
每次上课，教室里都坐满一百二十个人，
You get a class of a 120 people in a room.
其中三分之二的人，目标就是当顾问，
Two thirds of them want to become consultants.
他们来这儿，就是为了这个目的，
That's why they're there.
然后过一种平平无奇的生活。
And lead a life of mediocrity.
一生中从不做任何重要的决定。
And never make a decision of consequence in their lives.
二十四个月后，这种心态就再也甩不掉了。
And after twenty four months, they are tainted with that disease forever.
他们永远会是优秀的顾问，但再也不会有任何真正的成就。
They'll always be good consultants, but they will never achieve greatness in any way.
在人生中，只有三分之一的人能成为成功的创业者。
In life, only a third of people can become successful entrepreneurs.
就这么简单。
That's it.
其余的人完全可以成为非常出色的员工，这完全没问题。
And the rest can be very successful employees, and there's nothing wrong with that.
你照样能过上精彩的生活。
You can have a fantastic life.
你不用被创业的起起落落、艰难挑战所束缚。
You won't be shackled to the ups and downs of entrepreneurship, the challenge of it, how hard it is.
但你永远得不到自由。
But you'll never be free.
这就是争议所在。
And that's the debate.
问题就在这儿。
That's it right there.
你想要真正的自由吗？
Do you want personal freedom?
这是唯一的出路。
It's the only path.
就是这样。
That's it.
这是唯一的出路。
It's the only path.
这才是唯一的出路。
It is the only path.
我的意思是，你不可能靠追逐金钱来成功，我一向都说，这根本不是关于钱的事。
I mean, you can't I I've always said it's not about the pursuit of money.
也不是关于贪婪。
It's not about the pursuit of greed.
如果你这么想，迟早会失败。
You will fail if you do that.
真正支撑你的，是对自由那种永不熄灭的热爱。
It's it's the undying love of freedom.
你提到的那三分之一的人，他们会追随自己的梦想，创业，不管做什么事。
So that one third of people that you say will be successful, they'll pursue their dreams, they'll build a business, whatever it might be.
没错。
Yeah.
你觉得我们在这段对话里，能不能提高他们成功的几率？
Do you think it's possible for us in this conversation to increase the probability of their success?
你说过，你认为没法让人成为企业家。
You said you don't think you can make someone an entrepreneur.
但有没有什么办法能提高他们成功的几率呢？
But is there things you can do to increase their probability of success?
有的。
Yes.
要想成功，有几件事是必须做到的。
There are a couple of things that you must achieve to be successful.
让我来告诉你具体是哪几件。
And let me explain what they would be.
这可不是什么学术研究。
And this is not some academic study.
这些都是我亲身接触、从真实企业家身上学到的经验，我以前曾和史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的人共事过。
This is real data from real situations of real CEOs I've worked with and learned from because I used to work for guys like Steve Jobs and others in my career.
我想先跟你分享其中最重要的一条。
Let me me give you one that I think is very important.
我们就从这条开始吧。
We'll start with this one.
九十年代初，我曾为史蒂夫·乔布斯做所有教育类软件。
I used to work for Steve Jobs in the early nineties making all of his educational software.
我的天，就是这些了。
I mean, was just oh, there they are.
真是令人惊叹。
My goodness.
你们的研究做得真到位。
You guys do good research.
我们当年就是给他做这类东西的。
Those are the kind of things that we did for him.
你懂的。
You know?
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
所有这些。
All of that.
现在很难找到了。
It's hard to find.
这些都是光盘。
Those are CD ROMs.
但在开发这些软件的时候，我们每季度都要去一次。
But, you know, in developing that software, we used to go quarterly.
海蒂·罗森就在现场。
Heidi Rosen was there in the room.
她现在还是很有名的风险投资人。
She's still a very famous venture capitalist.
我会跟史蒂夫说，咱们得对《奥勒冈小径》做点市场调研。
And I would say, Steve, you know, we've got to do some market research on Oregon Trail.
这可是个大热门产品。
I mean, it's a huge title.
它被用在十一万所学校的教学楼里。
It's in 110,000 school buildings.
我们得做个更新。
We've got to do an update.
这得花上十二亿一千五百万美元。
It's going to cost $1,215,000,000 bucks.
我们得弄清楚学生想要什么。
We want to find out what the students want.
我们得弄清楚老师想要什么。
We want to find out what the teachers want.
我们得弄清楚家长想要什么。
We want to find out what the parents want.
史蒂夫会说，顺便提一句，他可不是个好相处的人。
Steve would say and by the way, not a nice guy.
真不是个好相处的人。
Not a nice guy.
他会对满屋子的人说，凯文，学生想要什么、家长怎么想、别人怎么想，我全不在乎。
He would say to a room full of people, Kevin, I don't give a shit what the students want or the parents think or anybody thinks.
我想要什么才最重要。
It's what I want.
他们自己都不知道想要什么，得我来告诉他们。
They don't know what they want till I tell them what they want.
我就跟他说，史蒂夫，你这话听起来真够讨厌的。
And I said, Steve, you sound like such an asshole.
你根本不知道这话听上去有多刺耳。
You have no idea what that sounds like.
他说，不不不。
He says, no, no.
事情就是这么回事，凯文。
That's how it is, Kevin.
现在，你跟我干，赚钱了吗？
Now, are you making money with me?
我们是不是你增长最快的原始设备制造商？
Are we are you am I your fastest growing OEM?
我们难道没有取得巨大成功，而且还在持续成功吗？
Have we not been wildly successful and continue to be?
我说：是的，史蒂夫。
I said, Yes, Steve.
没错。
That's true.
他说：那你闭嘴，照我说的做。
He said, Then fucking shut up and do what I say.
他平时就是这么跟你说话的。
That's how he would talk to you.
百分之百。
100%.
我后来明白了这一点。
And here's what I learned.
看看他当时有多成功。
Look how wildly successful he was.
但原因在这儿。
But here's why.
他懂一个概念，当年九十年代初，几乎没人关注过信噪比。
There's a concept that he understood that very few people focused on back then in the early nineties of signal to noise ratio.
乔布斯最厉害的地方，我现在跟每个CEO都这么说，不管你管的是标普500企业，还是刚起步的小公司——他的‘信号’就是未来18个小时内你必须搞定的三到五件事。
What was so brilliant about Jobs that I tell every CEO now, and I don't care if you're an S and P 500 CEO or you're just starting a business, his vision of Signal was the top three to five things you have to get done in the next eighteen hours.
不是你下周、下个月或者明年对公司的愿景。
Not your vision for the business next week or next month or next year.
就是你醒着的接下来18个小时。
Just the next eighteen hours you're awake.
你得把那三件或五件对你使命至关重要的事做完。
You're going to get those three things or those five things done that you have deemed critical for your mission.
今天必须完成。
They must get done today.
任何妨碍你做这些事的，都是干扰。
Anything that stops you from doing that is the noise.
所以，对史蒂夫·乔布斯来说，成功的关键在于八二分的信噪比。
So, the signal to noise ratio to be successful for Steve Jobs was eightytwenty.
百分之八十是重点，百分之二十是干扰。
80 signal, 20 noise.
我知道他说得没错，因为他凌晨两点三十给我发邮件，还指望我立刻回复。
And I knew that to be true with him, because he would email me at 02:30 in the morning and expect me to get back to him.
那时候我们还没有短信。
Because back then we didn't have texts.
全靠邮件沟通。
It was all email.
他确实是对的。
He was right.
他确实是对的。
He was right.
我见过的其他人里，只有埃隆·马斯克的专注度比他还高。
And the only other person that I've seen that has a higher ratio than that is Elon Musk.
他根本没那些杂音。
He has no noise.
他完全不理会那些干扰。
He does not deal with noise.
他每时每刻都是百分之百的专注，全天候在线。
He is 100% signal twenty four seconds of, you know, every cycle.
我的意思是，他每分钟六十秒、每小时六十分钟，全在状态里。
I mean, the guy is just sixty seconds of every minute, sixty minutes of every hour.
他每天清醒的十八个小时，每一秒都用在正事上。
The eighteen hours he's awake, it's all signal.
你看看他取得了什么成就。
And look what he's achieved.
不过他社交上挺尴尬的，因为那些杂音有时候是陪家人，有时候是跟朋友打个招呼，或者刷刷社交媒体、看看负面新闻，甚至弹弹吉他——这些都会分散注意力。
Now it's very awkward for him socially because noise is dealing with your family sometimes or noise is saying hi to a friend or noise is listening to some doom scrolling on, you know, some social media app that just takes your mind or maybe playing your guitar.
但地球上几乎没人能做到这样，如果你回溯历史，就会发现那个时代的天才们几乎都是百分之百专注于正事。
But very few people on earth, and if you go back in history, you're gonna find out that the geniuses of their time were close to 100% signal.
所以我可以给我的听众做个总结：你现在最该专注的就是正事，而其他所有东西都是干扰。
And so I can really sort of summarize this for my audience, signal is the most urgent thing you should be focused on right now, and noise is basically everything
其余的一切。
else.
不是的。
No.
你清醒时的目标，决定了你如何安排自己的时间。
The goals you set for the the the way the that you were awake.
如果你每天清醒十八个小时，
If you're gonna be awake eighteen hours
对。
Yeah.
而且你已经明确有三件必须完成的事，那你一定会把它们做完。
And you've determined that there's three things you have to get done, you're gonna get those done.
不管付出什么代价，你都必须把这些事做完。
No matter what it takes, you're going to get those done.
你绝不会让任何事分散你对这三到五件事的注意力。
And you're not going to let anything distract you from the three to five things.
如果你是CEO，能做到这一点，用80%的时间专注在这几件事上，那你就是极其成功的。
If you're a CEO and you achieve that and you can get those done with 80% of your time based on that, you're extraordinarily successful.
你就是那种人，像乔布斯，或者马斯克，又或者贝佐斯——我虽然不认识他本人，但听很多访谈里都提到过。
You are absolutely and you're Steve Jobs, or you're an Elon Musk, or you're somebody If you even talk to Bezos I don't know him personally, but I've heard in many interviews like I knew.
我只见过马斯克几次。
You know, I've met Elon just a few times.
我和乔布斯相处过很长时间。
I spent a lot of time with Jobs.
但他们说的都是一样的。
But they say the same thing.
贝佐斯下午一点之后绝不做决定，因为他觉得那时候干扰太多了。
Bezos will not make a decision after 01:00 in the afternoon because he felt that the noise was too high.
对他来说，最佳工作时间是在早上。
The signal for him was in the morning hours.
这是我现在真正明白的成功关键——这正是企业家的定义。
This is a crucial aspect of success that I now understand to be the ability of it defines an entrepreneur.
懂得区分重要信号与干扰、并专注前者的人，一定会成功。
A man or woman that understands the signal noise ratio, that focuses on that, they'll be successful.
那些分不清信号与噪音、陷入五五开状态的人，最终都会失败。
The ones that can't, that get down to a fiftyfifty signal noise, they'll fail.
就这么简单。
It's that simple.
这个道理其实非常直白。
And it's a very simple concept.
你今天做的这件事，就是这次采访。
You you made one of your things today this interview.
你一定会把它完成。
You're gonna get it done.
你周围有这么多人和事，但你真正要完成的，就这三到五件事。
You're gonna all these people around and everything else, this is one of the three to five things you're gonna get done.
我今天有五件事要处理。
I have five things today.
我一定会把它们做完。
I'm gonna get them done.
明天和后天，我也会这么做。
I'll do the same thing tomorrow and the day after that.
你得想清楚，为了完成这三到五件事，你需要屏蔽多少干扰。
And you have to decide how much signal you need to get those three to five things done.
对乔布斯来说，这个比例是百分之八十。
And for Jobs, was 80 percent.
那相反的情况是什么？
What's the opposite of that?
有时候，看看反面，反而更容易理解一件事。
Sometimes looking at the opposite helps us to understand something.
所以，与拥有清晰目标相反的是，
So the opposite of having know,
我雇用的经理和CEO，都懂得在纪律和商业的二元性——赚钱或亏钱——与艺术或其他追求的混乱之间保持平衡。
what I hire managers and CEOs that have a balance in life between the discipline, the binary aspect of business, which is I make money, I lose money, and the chaos of the arts, or some other pursuit.
比如跳舞、绘画、摄影，或者收集水晶。
Dance, painting, photography, collecting crystals.
不管是什么，他们都能维持这种平衡。
Whatever it is that they have that balance.
你心里得有阴阳调和，才能做出正确的决定。
You need the yin and yang in your mind to make correct decisions.
这并不意味着你会偏离重点。
It doesn't mean it takes you off the signal.
重点是你得把事情做完。
The signal is you've to get stuff done.
但你该怎么过好这一生？
But how do you live your life?
所以我花了不少时间练吉他、摆弄摄影，或者摆弄我的手表。
And so I spend a fair amount of my time practicing my guitar or working with my photography or my watch.
今晚很晚的时候，我会去见一位顶级制表师，一起讨论为我定制一款独一无二的手表设计，我特别期待那一刻。
Tonight, very late tonight, I will meet a master watchmaker, and we will deal with the design of a new piece unique is gonna make for me, and I'm gonna love that moment.
这跟我一整天做的事儿完全不一样，接下来两年，我们会一起打造这款独一无二的作品。
That's gonna be something completely different to what I did all day long, and we'll start our journey together over the next two years to make this piece unique.
这能让我彻底从今天那些烦心事里抽身出来。
And that's something that just takes me away from all the shit I'm going be dealing with today.
我也会跟成功的创业者说，同一天里，你可能会接到一个电话——今天我就遇到了。
And I also tell successful entrepreneurs, in the same day, you will get a and this happened to me today.
这种事天天都有。
It happens every day.
你可能会接到一个电话，说你公司某个业务板块要破产了。
You're going to get a call from some aspect of your you do call it your empire or whatever you want, where your this company's going bankrupt.
就是突然要倒闭了。
It's just gonna go bankrupt.
这笔交易你可能会亏掉一千万美元。
And you're gonna lose, I don't know, $10,000,000 on that deal.
这种事就是你每天要面对的现实。
And that's a piece of information you're dealing with.
半小时后，今天真就发生在我身上了。
Half an hour later, this actually happened to me today.
我有一家公司要上市了。
One of my companies is going public.
对我来说，这值四亿五千万。
It's a four fifty x for me.
股票会在今年秋天解禁。
The stock will get unlocked sometime in the fall.
可你该怎么把这两种极端都消化掉？
But how do you fit that together?
前半小时还是彻底的灾难、损失、绝望，半小时后却瞬间变成狂喜。
Utter catastrophe, destruction, woe, loss, utter euphoria half an hour later.
我的生活就是这样。
That's what my life is like.
这就是创业，对大多数创始人来说只是规模不同而已。
That's entrepreneurship, obviously on a different scale for most founders.
但创始人也面临同样的情况。
Well, the founders deal with the same thing.
他们会接到糟糕的消息。
They get disastrous news.
如果做的是消费品或服务，可能会丢掉像好市多这样的大客户，但紧接着又会拿到别的单子。
They lose an account like a Costco or something if it's consumer goods or service, and they get something else.
这种起起落落，本质上就是管理预期。
The ebb and flow is the management of expectations.
你能否在情绪上应对这些起伏，本身就是创业的一部分。
And your ability emotionally to navigate those ups and downs is part of what entrepreneurship is.
但这又回到了信号的问题上。
But it goes back to the signal.
它不会让你偏离主线。
It can't take you off the signal.
这是史蒂夫教我的。
This is what Steve taught me.
是的，这是好消息。
Yes, it's great news.
是的，这是坏消息。
Yes, it's bad news.
但要盯住主线，奥利里。
But focus on the signal, O'Leary.
盯住主线。
Focus on the signal.
就这么简单。
That's it.
这个‘主线’和‘杂音’的比喻是从哪儿来的？
Where does this analogy come from of signal and noise?
他厉害就厉害在能把事情变得这么简单。
It was his genius of of of making it so simple.
今天你必须完成的三件事是什么？
What are the three things you gotta get done today?
是哪三件？
What are they?
是哪三件？
What are they?
你怎么知道那三件事是什么？
How do you know what they are?
它们自然会浮现出来。
They will make themselves apparent.
它们肯定会浮现出来。
They will definitely make themselves apparent.
它们会自己冒出来，到时候你就明白了，这事非得处理不可。
They will make themselves apparent, and you will realize, I have to deal with that.
你可能前一天就已经把它们安排好了。
You may have them set up from the day before.
我到现在还贴便利贴在镜子上。
I actually still use sticky notes on my mirror.
我得完成这三件事，或者五件，不管多少，但总会有别的事情冒出来。
I've got to get these three things done or five things, whatever it is, but then something else will hit.
真正的本事在于分辨：这到底是干扰，还是真正的信号？
That's the skill of understanding, is that noise hitting me or is that signal?
这就是优秀企业家、优秀管理者、优秀领导者的精髓。
There is the essence of the great entrepreneur, the great manager, the great leader.
这是信号，还是干扰？
Is that signal or is that noise?
它到底是什么？
What is it?
你找的就是这个。
That's what you're looking for.
你在雇用一个能真正分辨出重点和干扰的人。
You're hiring somebody that can actually distinguish signal and noise.
因为那可能只是干扰。
Because it could be noise.
也可能是无关紧要的事。
It could be irrelevant.
你得自己判断清楚。
You have to determine.
最终做决定的只有你自己。
Only you makes that decision.
关键就在这里。
That's the key right there.
我教创业者和工程师的，就是这一点，也是最重要的。
This is what I teach entrepreneurs and engineers, and this is the most important thing.
就是判断优先级的能力，再加上全力以赴去执行的劲头。
It's that judgment of prioritization, but then the sort of force of execution to get it done.
你能分辨出什么是关键信息，什么是干扰吗？
Can you interpret signal and noise?
你能把干扰排除在外，专心做该做的事吗？
And can you keep the noise away from the things you've got to get done?
这是第一点。
That's one.
另一点是我过去五年才领悟到的，你可能会觉得有意思——我接触的很多初创企业，跟你我所处的环境其实是一样的。
The other, which is something that I've learned over the last five years, And this you might find this interesting, but most of my particularly the nascent startups, and you're you're involved in the same format I am.
你在英国的《龙穴》里，
You're in Dragon's Den in England.
我在美国的《创智赢家》里，
I'm Shark Tank in The US.
你投个五十万、一百万进去，十个项目里有八个会失败，说不定六个就黄了。
I you know, you put up 500,000 or a million bucks into somebody's business, eight eight out of 10 is gonna fail, maybe six out of 10.
这要看情况。
Depends.
你就是没法预知。
You just don't know.
我特别讨厌别人跟我说：‘我知道我投的项目肯定能成。’
And I love it when people tell me, oh, I I know when I make an investment it's going to work.
他们简直胡说八道。
They are so full of shit.
我说的是初创公司。
I'm talking about startups.
他们根本不知道什么能成功。
They have no idea what's going to work.
你要过五到七年才能看出来，所以投资组合必须分散。
And you won't know for five to seven years, which is why you need diversification in the portfolio.
我现在甚至会说，每次见到那些风投公司和年轻分析师，他们觉得自己聪明得不得了，可从来没运营过任何企业，根本一无所知。
But I would go as far to say now, you know, when I meet venture capital firms and young analysts that work there, and they think they're so damn smart, they've never operated a business, they know nothing.
他们完全不懂自己在做什么。
They have no idea what they're doing.
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他们指望portfolio里有一两个项目七年后能成功，好弥补其他所有失误的损失。
They're gonna hope that one or two of their portfolio is gonna work out in seven years and pay for all the other mistakes.
但创业成功的偶然性真是残酷。
But the serendipitous nature of success in entrepreneurship is brutal.
确实如此。
It is.
那是不是说，投资其实很大程度上靠运气？
So does that mean though that it's I guess I was gonna say does that not mean that it's highly luck?
投资确实很靠运气。
Investing is highly luck.
创业也一定如此。
Entrepreneurship must be
我说过，这是因果报应。
Well, I said karma.
我管这叫因果报应，但你还是得有执行能力。
Know, I call it karma, but you need executional skills.
但我想再聊一个我们该讨论的技能。
But here's another skill that I think we should talk about.
回顾我几十年来做早期投资——A轮投资的经验，尤其是在经济的十一个不同领域都做过之后，我发现一个惊人的现象：五年到七年后取得成功的公司，大多数都是由女性在经营。
When you look at, at least my experience over decades of making these nascent, these early stage investments, these A round investments, remarkably, and I've done them in all 11 secondtors of the economy, the majority of the successes five to seven years later are companies run by women.
这是为什么呢？
Why is that?
这到底是为什么？
Why is that?
而且她们彼此并不认识。
And so they don't know each other.
她们分属不同的行业。
They're in different sectors.
她们根本没见过面。
They never meet each other.
这到底是为什么？
Why is that?
我得出两个结论。
And I have come to the conclusion, two things.
她们设定的目标都是能实现的，早期创业时，女性通常把增长目标定在15%、16%左右，而男性往往定在30%。
They set goals that they can achieve so that in the early stage of their businesses, they put growth rate targets like 15%, 16% versus men at 30% very often.
男性能达成目标的大概只有65%，至少在我的投资组合里是这样，而女性能达到90%以上。
Men hit their target 65% of the time, at least my portfolio, and women 90 plus percent of the time.
这样一来，团队就特别稳定。
And that keeps the team very sticky.
她们希望留下来，所以公司小的时候人员流失很少。
They want to be part of so they don't have a lot of attrition when they're small.
不会轻易失去财务总监或市场负责人。
They don't lose the head of finance and marketing.
这很管用。
That works.
但她们还有另一个特点。
But they have another attribute.
几年前，有一位女CEO向我指出了这一点。
And this was pointed out to me by one of my female CEOs a few years ago to me.
她说：‘凯文，你话太多了。’
She said, you know, Kevin, you talk too much.
你话太多了。
You talk too much.
你说得占三分之二。
You talk two thirds.
你听的只占三分之一。
You listen one third.
你为什么不试着把比例倒过来？
Why don't you try reversing the ratio?
她真的对你这么说？
She said that to you.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我其实特别感激，因为我真的试了。
I'm very thankful actually because I tried it.
她说得对。
And she's right.
如果你不说话，专心听，作为管理者或者像我这样的投资人，你会变得高效得多，因为你能听到那些光靠说话永远听不到的信息。
If you don't talk and you listen, you become far more effective as a manager or an investor in my case by getting information that you weren't going to get by talking.
所以，当你走进一个房间的时候，我刚才来这儿之前就刚这么做过。
And so if you go into a room, I just did this a few minutes ago before I came here.
我正在参与一场诉讼。
I'm involved in a litigation.
我们决定尝试和解谈判，所以我才晚了几分钟。
And we decided to attempt settlement talks, which is why I was a few minutes late.
我们知道，我们进去就是为了谈和解的。
And, you know, we knew we were going in there to settle.
而且这场官司拖了好久，你知道的，拖了非常非常久。
And it's long protruded, you know, it's a long, long, long litigation.
当我们围坐在桌边时，我想起了她。
And I remembered her as we sat at the table like this.
房间里还有别人，但那两个人是面对面坐着的。
There were other people in the room, but the two, you know, were across from each other.
我就一直盯着他们看。
I just looked at them.
我明白了。
I understand.
很久很久。
For a long time.
很长一段时间。
A long time.
气氛越来越尴尬，可谁都不说话。
And it gets uncomfortable and no one else is talking.
就是这么看着。
You know, just looking.
大概九十秒后，他脱口说出了不该说的话。
And maybe after ninety seconds, he blurted out something he shouldn't have said.
那一刻，我就知道赔偿金额是多少了。
And I knew exactly what the price was right there.
事情就到此为止了
That was the end
了。
of it.
做播客的都明白这个道理。
You learn that as a podcaster.
你得知道，沉默里其实藏着东西。
You learned that there's actually something going on in the silence.
沉默里确实有玄机，那就是他愿意和解的数字。
There is something going on in silence, and it's it's it's the number that he was going to settle at.
他露底了。
He showed his hand.
所以我们省下了两个小时，你知道的。
So we saved ourselves two hours, you know.
很多人做不到，因为他们受不了那种社交上的尴尬。
It's an attribute that many people can't do because they can't stand the social uncomfort of it.
我一点都不在意。
I have no problem with it.
我能坐在这儿盯着你看十分钟。
I could sit here and look at you for ten minutes.
对我来说根本无所谓。
It wouldn't matter to me.
我发现这其实是个非常有用的信息。
And I've actually found it to be a very useful piece of information.
这不只是在谈判时有用，听员工、投资人、融资方说话，听跟你不一样的想法，都能让你变得更强大。
It's not just in negotiating, but to listen to employees, listen to investors, listen to financiers, listen to alternative ideas to yours, and become more powerful from it.
你这行就是天天有人来找你推销、向你路演。
You're in the very business of people selling to you and pitching to you.
咱们都上过类似的节目，就是有人进来向我们做展示。
We both sit on a similar show and where people come in and pitch to us.
你一天有时候得看十到十二个路演。
You're seeing at times 10 to 12 pitches a day.
所以过去几十年里，你早就练出了这种直觉，几乎像蜘蛛侠的预警一样，能马上判断出哪个创业者能成，至少在拿到投资这件事上。
So you've developed this muscle over the last couple of decades now, almost this instinctive Spidey sense of when an entrepreneur will be successful, at least in the context of securing investment.
你发现那些成功的创业者都有什么共同特质吗？
What have you come to learn about the attributes of the ones that are successful?
这些经验里，有没有什么能借鉴的地方？
Is there anything one can take from that?
当创业者走上台的那一刻，不管是《鲨鱼资本》还是《龙穴》这类节目，都需要一个产品和创业者同框的开场镜头，我们这边通常用稳定器或者摇臂来拍。
In the moment, when that entrepreneur comes out onto the carpet, in the context of Shark Tank or Dragon's Den even, they need the setup shot of the product with the entrepreneur and they have, in our case, a Steadicam or a jib that comes down and shoots it.
所以导演埃里克——我跟他合作好多年了——会对那些他从没见过的创业者说：不管是一群人、一家人，还是两个人，都先别动，等等。
So the stage director, Eric is his name, I've worked with him for years, says to the entrepreneurs I've never met, usually it's a team or it's a family or it's whatever, three or four, two people, whatever, hold, Hold.
别动。
Hold.
别说话。
Don't speak.
别动。
Hold.
别动。
Hold.
别在意镜头凑到你脸上。
Don't mind the camera coming into your face.
别动。
Hold.
别动。
Hold.
大概两分钟就行。
Maybe for two minutes.
我就站在他们正前方。
And I'm right there in front of them.
离他们十二英尺远，就那么盯着他们看。
I'm 12 feet from them, and I just look at them.
不笑，不眨眼，不皱眉，就只是盯着他们。
Not smiling, not blinking, not frowning, just looking at them.
在他们开口之前，我就知道他们是赢家还是输家。
And before they say a single word, I know if they're winners or losers.
就这么一眼的事。
Just like that.
这是为什么呢？
And why is that?
这到底是为什么？
Why is that?
我差不多每次都能猜对。
When and I'm right probably 99% of the time.
也许我会看错一次。
Maybe I get it wrong.
一百次里有一次吧。
One out of a 100.
但我真不觉得会这样。
I doubt it though.
你走进房间，就算练了无数遍，也知道这是在《鲨鱼坦克》的现场，二十多台摄像机，五把椅子上坐着上十亿美元的资本。
You walk in a room, even though you've practiced, know, you're in the context of of Shark Tank, 20 plus cameras, a billion plus dollars in in the five chairs there.
你几个月来反复演练的演讲，可到头来根本不是那么回事。
You've been practicing for months your pitch, but it wasn't the real deal.
你就在那儿了。
Here you are.
摄像机已经开了。
Cameras are rolling.
录像已经开始。
Tape is running.
你知道，你只有那么几分钟的时间。
You know you've only got so many minutes.
这可是你展现自己的时刻。
This is your moment.
你是在全国电视上亮相，还有上亿人会在重播时看到你。
And you're on national television, 100 plus million people will see you in syndication.
这一切都在你脑子里。
It's all in your mind.
这一切都在你脑子里。
It's all in your mind.
各种念头在你脑海里转个不停。
It's going through your head.
你能通过眼神和站姿展现出真实的自己吗？
Can you project who you are with your eyes and the way you're standing?
你能展现出你的自信吗？
Can you project your confidence?
你是在看地上吗？
Are you looking at the ground?
你是不是因为不敢直视我，所以才躲开我的目光，一句话也不说？
Are you looking away from me because you can't stand me looking at you directly without saying anything to you?
还是你会反击？
Or do you push back?
还是你会说，我要守住自己的气场？
Or do you say, I'm going to stake my aura.
我要在这里站稳脚跟。
I'm going to stake my ground here.
我要让你看到，我已经准备好了。
I'm going to show you I'm ready.
你明白我的意思吗？
See what I'm getting at?
我能感觉到。
And I can feel it.
我能看出来，他们已经准备好开战了。
I can see that they're ready to do battle.
他们已经准备好回应了。
They're ready to answer.
他们已经准备好展示了。
They're ready to present.
他们要么就是准备好了，准备好了，准备好了，准备好了，要么就没准备好。
They're ready, ready, ready, ready, or they're not.
我已经把这套东西从《鲨鱼坦克》里拿掉了。
And I've taken that out of the Shark Tank.
生活中，我每天都能看到这种情况。
I see that every day in life.
我看得清清楚楚。
I see it.
所以你得学会在同伴面前、在你想领导或教导的人面前，甚至当你是个将军或牧师时，如何展现自己。
So you have to learn how to project yourself in front of your peers or who's who you want to you want to lead or teach or if you're a general or a preacher.
这可能是与生俱来的天赋，也可能是后天学会的。
That is maybe an innate something you're born with, or maybe you can learn that.
我不确定。
I don't know.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
但如果你没有，就一定会失败。
But if you don't have it, you're going to fail.
在开口之前，就已经决定了。
And you're justthat's before a word is spoken.
在第一句话说出来之前。
Before the first word is spoken.
那接下来该怎么做呢？
And so, then what has to happen?
然后埃里克说：开始。
Then Eric says, Go.
该你了。
You're on.
所有人都坐在那儿盯着你。
And everybody's just sitting there looking at you.
你能在九十秒内说清楚你的想法吗？
Can you articulate your idea in ninety seconds or less?
不管你要用什么道具或说什么，我能马上明白你的核心想法吗？
Can you, whatever props you have or whatever you're gonna say, can I get the big idea right away?
那些有那种气场的人，通常都能成功。
The ones that had that aura generally get there.
三十秒后，我就明白了。
Thirty seconds later, I get it.
我知道他们来这儿的目的了。
I get what they're here for.
我懂他们的产品了。
I understand their product.
好，这样不错。
Okay, that's good.
但说实话，好点子多得是。
Unfortunately, great ideas are a dime a dozen.
我的意思是，成千上万都不止。
I mean, there's millions of them.
接下来才是真正的开始。
The next phase begins.
这事儿发生在九十秒之后。
This is after ninety seconds.
你能说清楚，为什么你是最适合把这个点子落地、做成生意的人吗？
Can you explain why you're the right person to execute on this idea and create a business from it?
因为你对这个领域很了解。
Because you know something about this space.
你以前在竞争对手那儿干过。
You worked for a competitor.
你之前已经试过三次，都失败了。
You've tried three times before and failed.
你终于明白自己错在哪里了。
You figured out what you did wrong.
到底是什么让你或你的团队能把这个想法变成现实？
What is it about you or your team that can take this idea and make it happen?
当你把这两点凑齐了，整个房间的气氛都不一样了。
Now, when you get those two things together, you can feel the aura of the room.
这个项目现在充满潜力，因为你已经大大降低了风险。
The isotope is sizzling because you've de risked a great idea.
你请来了一位实战高手。
You got an operator in.
第三点才是关键所在。
And they but then the third thing, this is the killer.
这才是真正的杀手锏。
This is the killer.
我见过太多次了。
I've seen it so many times.
现实中，还有《鲨鱼坦克》里的真实场景，就是这样。
In real life and you Shark Tank's real life, it is.
但你必须清楚自己的数字。
But you gotta know your numbers.
市场有多大？
How big is the market?
增长有多快？
How fast is growing?
毛利率是多少？
What's the gross margin?
我跟人说过无数次了。
I mean, I've said this a million times to people.
我每天都在教这些。
I teach this every day.
有多少竞争对手？
How many competitors are there?
你什么时候能盈亏平衡？
When are you gonna break even?
具体是哪个月？
What month?
如果你前两点答对了，却连自己的数字都搞不清楚，那你活该下地狱，我亲自送你去。
If you get the first two right and you don't know your numbers, you deserve to burn in hell, and I'll put you there myself.
你白白浪费了一个机会，那个创业者连自己的数据都不清楚，而那本来是我可以投资的项目。
I mean, you wasted an opportunity for an entrepreneur that didn't know their numbers that could have bitten that spot that I could have invested in.
你连自己的数字都不懂。
You don't know your numbers.
我真想把你拖到谷仓后面，一枪了结你。
I'd take you up behind the barn and shoot you.
你该带个懂商业语言的人来，因为这三点合起来，就是领导力的全部定义。
You should have brought somebody that understands the language of business because those three together are the definition of leadership right there.
我从来没听过有人这么讲创业者的气场。
I've never heard someone talk about aura in entrepreneurship quite like that.
我只是想让在听的朋友们明白，如果你在琢磨自己有没有气场，或者想培养它，那这东西到底是什么感觉、什么样子？
And I was I was just trying to for the people listening that are either trying to figure out if they have an aura or to grow that aura, What does it what does it look and feel like?
是身体上的表现吗？
Is it physically?
是挺胸抬头吗？
Is it shoulders back?
你说是眼神交流，还是根本说不清楚？
Is it you said it's eye contact or is it indescribable?
你觉得一个本来没这气场的人，能教会他吗？
And do you think you could take someone who doesn't have that aura in business and teach them it?
做生意本身就能让你拥有这种气场吗？
Does business give you that aura?
我觉得是可以教的。
I think you can teach it.
我确实会教我的孩子这些。
I certainly try and teach it to my children.
我也会教我的学生。
I try and teach it to my students.
最好的方法就是找个时间照照镜子，看看自己是什么样子。
And the best way to do it is to look at yourself in the mirror sometime.
你有没有想过，你自己在镜子里看起来是什么样？
You know, just what do you look like to yourself?
如果你要去争取一笔上百万美元的贷款，当然得穿得像那么回事。
You know, if you're going to go make a presentation to take down a million dollar line of credit or something, You wanna dress the part, obviously.
但当你走进房间，面对贷款专员，可能还有个助理，或者再加一个人——具体看交易规模。
But you're gonna walk in a room with, you know, a loan officer and maybe an assistant, maybe one other, depending on the size of the deal.
他们之前都没见过你，而你刚走进去、走向他们握手的那几秒钟，就得把整个人的气场带出来。
They all have never met you probably, and you're gonna have to project yourself in those seconds as you're walking up to shake their hands.
这需要什么？
What does that take?
这需要一种自信的气场。
It takes an aura of confidence.
关键在眼神里。
And it's in the eyes.
在你站姿的细节中。
It's in the way you're standing.
在你穿着的方式上。
It's in how the way you're dressed.
穿得得体去追求成功，可不是开玩笑的事。
It's not a joke to be dressed for success.
你明白吧？
You know?
你要展现出自己的态度，专注地看着和你说话的人，让他们感受到你在认真听，尊重他们说的话，愿意和他们建立一种相互尊重的对话，哪怕之后会有分歧。
It's something about presenting yourself and keeping your eyes focused on who's talking to you so that they know that you're absorbing the information, that you respect the information, that you're about to get into a narrative with them of respect, even though there may be disagreements.
所有这些，都在前六十秒内完成了。
All of this is happening in the first 60.
这会影响你和这个人之后的整个人生。
And it's setting up for the rest of your life with that person.
可能是你将来要娶的人。
It could be who you're gonna marry.
可能是你将来要共事的人。
It could be who you're gonna work with.
可能是你生意上的搭档。
It could be your partner in business.
可能是你的银行经理。
It could be your banker.
也可能是任何人。
It could be anybody.
也可能是那个愿意为你献出生命的人。
It could be a soldier that's gonna give up their life for you.
说到底，你究竟是个什么样的人？
It's sort of, who are you?
就是这样。
That's it.
你刚才提到女性是你最成功的投资对象，给你带来最高回报的公司往往由女性领导，我想就此做个总结。
Just closing off on the point you made about women being your most successful investments, and the companies that have given you the greatest returns tend to be led by women.
这是否意味着你特别注重在高管岗位上聘用女性？
Does that mean that you focus on hiring women into executive roles?
是的。
Yeah.
而且基本上全是女性，尤其是亚裔女性。
And practically all women, particularly Asian women.
我知道现在大家都在谈多元化、公平与包容这些事。
I am a you know, this whole thing about DEI and all this stuff.
我一直以来都坚持多元化，因为我只看能力 hiring。
I've always had diversity because I only hire on merit.
我不在乎你是男是女，你怎么自称，你来自哪里，皮肤是什么颜色，甚至你出生在哪个星球。
I don't care if what sex you are or what you call yourself or what where you came from or the color of your skin or what planet you were born on.
我根本不在乎。
I couldn't give a shit.
你能把事情办成吗？
Can you execute?
我招人的标准就是这样，所以我的运营公司员工才这么多元——我不是在招你这个人。
And the way I hire people, and that's why I have such a diverse staff in my operating company, I don't hire you.
你简历写得挺好，面试也说得过去，但要是没法融入团队，这些都没用。
I say, look, you sound good and you look great on paper, but that doesn't mean anything if you can't work within the team.
我知道你想要份工作，想要福利，诸如此类的东西。
So I know you want a job and you want benefits and all that stuff.
但我不会给你这些。
But I'm not going do that.
如果你想加入我的团队，先以合同工身份干四到六个月，薪水会高不少。
If you want to be part of my universe, you're going to work for four to six months as a contractor at a much higher salary.
因为你根本拿不到任何股票期权。
Because you're not going to get any stock options.
你别指望有任何福利。
You're not going to get any benefits.
我只是想看看你和我们每天打交道的那些人合作起来是什么样子。
But I just want to see what it's like for you to work with all of the people that we deal with every day.
包括所有的律师、银行家、我们投资的那些首席执行官，还有你的同事。
All the lawyers, all the bankers, all of the CEOs that we have investments in, and your coworkers.
我现在已经不干朝九晚五的工作了。
Because I don't do nine to five anymore.
我只做项目制的工作。
I do project based work.
你住哪儿我都无所谓。
I don't care where you live.
我们的人分布在迪拜、阿布扎比、英国各地。
We have people working in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, England.
我的意思是，哪儿都有。
I mean, everywhere.
到处都有。
Everywhere.
而且我们会见面。
And we meet.
我们每周都会尽量挤出一个小时碰面，但平时主要靠现代工具随时保持联系。
We try and find an hour every week where we can see each other, but we're just constantly communicating using modern day tools today.
但你能被赋予明确的任务并把它执行到位吗？
But can you actually be given a mandate and execute on it?
就这么简单。
That's it.
你什么时候做我都无所谓。
I don't care when you do it.
如果你在财务部门，比如要报税，那必须在15号之前把报表交上去。
If you have to get the financials outlet's say you're running in financeyou've got to get them out the fifteenth for taxes.
你什么时候做我都无所谓。
I don't care when you do it.
但如果你错过了十五号，我就在乎了。
But if you miss the fifteenth, I care.
所以我得弄清楚，这些人能不能适应这样的工作环境。
So, I need to find out if those people can fit into that kind of an environment.
有些人能行，有些人就不行。
Some of them make it, some of them don't.
有时候，九十天后我们就能马上看出来。
Sometimes we know right away after ninety days.
我们会说，赶紧录用他们。
We're going, let's hire them.
把他们纳入团队。
Bring them in the team.
把全套资源都给他们。
Let's give them the whole package.
但有时候一个月后，我们就觉得，不行，这活儿他们干不了。
And sometimes after a month, we say, no, it's not out of work.
就是这么回事，你知道的。
Here's like, you know, that's it.
其实我觉得更多公司都应该这么做。
I think more companies should do that, actually.
有点像瑞士的学徒制度。
It's more like the Swiss apprentice system.
他们会让你全面参与进来。
They bring you into a lot.
我继父是瑞士人。
My stepfather is Swiss.
我五十多年来一直去瑞士。
I've been going to Switzerland for fifty years.
所以像辉瑞或者雀巢这样的大公司，会在学生14岁上高中时就把他们招进来。
So if you're a giant company like a Pfizer or a Nestle, you pull them out of high school at 14.
下午就让他们开始上班。
You give them a job in the afternoon.
他们就成了学徒。
They become an apprentice.
他们想学习。
They want to learn.
他们想干活。
They want to work.
他们想了解这到底是怎么回事。
They want to understand what it's like.
你能在他们还在上高中的时候就发现那些优秀的人。
And then you find the winners while they're still in high school.
然后给他们安排暑期工作。
Then you give them summer jobs.
再把他们正式引进公司。
And then you bring them into the company.
我的这个想法就是从这儿来的。
That's where I got the idea from.
瑞士人在这方面真是天才。
The Swiss are genius that way.
因为你其实是在降低风险，我想。
Because you're sort of mitigating the risk, I guess.
你在这上面承担的风险更小。
You're taking less of a risk on this.
不是的。
No.
但你也在观察他们的基因是不是和你的团队合得来，我的目标是让团队赚大钱。
But you're also finding out if their their DNA is going to fit with your I mean, I want my team to make a ton of money.
我只是希望他们能成功。
I just I want them to be successful.
我希望每个人都能为和同伴共事感到自豪，我们几乎所向披靡。
I want every person to be proud to work with the other and just we're almost invincible.
我们做事情真的太厉害了。
We're so damn good at what we do.
这里也是同样的情况。
You have the same thing here.
你不会留下那些跟你合不来的人。
You don't have people that don't work for you well.
你直接让他们走人。
You get rid of them.
你把他们清理掉。
You whack them.
我比较讲究方式方法。
I'm more just formal about it.
拜拜了您内。
Boom.
你被开除了。
You're gone.
你做的这些投资里，到底投过多少个项目，上过多少次《鲨鱼资本》？
With with the investments that you've made, how many investments how many offers have you done on Shark Tank now?
大概是吧，
Probably, like,
八次？哦，我们现在根本不再计数了。
eight Oh, just know we don't even count it anymore.
我们看的是五年到七年内投资组合的整体表现。
We look at the portfolio rolling over a five to seven year period.
很多。
A lot.
我喜欢多一点。
I like a lot.
关键是，我学到的是，像五年前的Base Paws这样的退出案例。
And the thing is, what I've learned is you get an exit like Base Paws from five years ago or something.
Anna Skya，一位了不起的女性。
Anna Skya, a remarkable woman.
就是那个猫的DNA检测项目。
That was the cat DNA thing.
就是那个猫基因检测的项目。
The cat DNA thing.
我的意思是，谁都没料到会这样。
I mean, nobody saw that coming.
我还以为这事儿是个笑话呢。
I thought the thing was a joke.
我真是大错特错了。
I was so wrong.
这恰恰正是关键所在。
I mean, that's the whole point.
我想，她的内部收益率是整个项目历史上最高的。
And she had the highest IRR, I think, the whole format's history.
没人能做到这种程度。
Nobody's made.
她参与了三十六个月，最后以巨额现金退出，连索尼和那家制药公司都签了保密协议。
She was around for thirty six months and taken out at such an extreme number in all cash that there was an NDA signed between Sony and the pharmaceutical company.
我真说不上来具体是多少。
I can't even tell you what it was.
这数字太惊人了。
It was extraordinary.
这数字太惊人了。
It was extraordinary.
是九位数吗？
Was it 9 figures?
相信我，这份保密协议非常严格。
Believe me, it's a tough NDA.
我能理解他们为什么这么做。
Because and I understand why they did it.
他们买下它不是为了猫的DNA检测。
They didn't buy it for the cat DNA testing.
他们是冲着那些数据来的。
They bought it for the data.
那时候AI其实还没兴起。
AI didn't really wasn't emerging then.
它虽然存在，但还没形成气候。
It existed, but it wasn't.
凭借现在的数据，他们能开发出在饲料和药物方面都极其出色的宠物产品。
With the data they have now, they can develop products for animals that are extraordinary in terms of feeds and medicines.
当时没人拥有美国那1.1亿只猫的数据，因为她是在疫情期间把数据都收集齐的。
And nobody had that much data on the 110,000,000 cats in America because she got it all during the pandemic.
成千上万的数据，你知道的，重点从来不是别的，而是一家数据公司。
Thousands and thousands and thousands of of, you know it was it was never about it was it was a data company.
这就好像我儿子告诉我他在特斯拉实习时的情景。
It's like my son telling me when he got his internship at Tesla.
嘿，老爸。
Hey, dad.
特斯拉可不是什么汽车公司。
It's not a car company.
这是一家数据公司。
It's a data company.
买它的股票吧。
Buy the stock.
他说，我绝对不会买这只股票。
Said, I'm never buying the stock.
这简直是个笑话。
It's a joke.
价格太贵了。
It's so expensive.
他说，你真是个傻瓜。
He said, you're an idiot.
它根本不是一家汽车公司。
It's not a car company.
所以我买了股票，结果他没错。
So I bought the stock, and he was right.
这成了我最成功的一笔投资。
It became my most successful investment.
我不得不一路减仓，降到百分之五。
I I had to keep selling it down to 5%.
现在我对特斯拉的成本已经归零了。
My cost base is zero on Tesla now.
真他妈的。
Fucking.
是的。
Yeah.
但在股票拆分之前，他已经在那儿工作了五年。
But before it split, and he worked there for five years.
我经常看这个节目的一群观众，是那些坐在沙发上、想着创业的年轻人，也不一定真年轻。
One of the personas that I have that watches this show a lot are young people, not always young, but that are on the sofa thinking about being an entrepreneur.
他们经常聊这个话题。
And they talk about it a lot.
你知道吗，他们在街上会主动找我搭话
You know, they they come up to me in the street
三分之二的人根本不会行动
Two thirds will never do it.
三分之二的人根本不会行动
Two thirds will never do it.
与其等到背负更多责任，比如房贷和家庭，不如趁年轻就试试
You you might as well do it when you have less burdensome risk like a mortgage and a family.
趁着二十多岁的时候就去做吧
You might as well do it in your 20s.
第一次可能失败，第二次、第三次也说不定会失败
You're going to fail the first time, maybe the second, maybe the third.
只要有一次成功就够了
You only need one success.
我经历过无数次失败
I had plenty of failures.
我到现在还是会有失败。
And I still have failures.
我的意思是，就是，我今天早上还提到过一个。
I mean, it's just, you know, one I talked about this morning.
我当时坐在车里，对最大的股东们说，你的助理正看着我，坐在豪华轿车里。
When I You know, I said to the largest shareholders, I was sitting in the car and your assistant was looking at me in the limo.
我跟另外两位股东说，听好了，各位。
I was telling the other two shareholders, Listen, guys.
这其实是个二选一的决定。
It's a binary decision.
我一结束这个采访，我们就做决定。
As soon as I get out of this interview, we're going make a decision.
这家公司就要破产了。
This company's going bankrupt.
哦，就是这家快破产的公司？
Oh, on this bankrupt company?
是的，没错。
Yeah, yeah.
所以如果我们想救它，每个人都要拿出几百万来。
And so if we wanna save it, everybody's gonna have to pony up x million.
到时候我们就全资拥有这家公司了。
And we're gonna own the whole thing.
我们就会完全拥有它。
We're just gonna own it all.
我们直接搞个债转股，用不到一美分的价格把全部股权拿下来。
We're gonna just going do a cram down round at a fraction of a cent and own the whole thing.
你们是想这么做，还是任由它破产？
You want to do that or you want to let it go bankrupt?
你们自己选吧。
You guys choose.
我占三分之一，所以得是两个人对一个人。
I'm one third of it, so it's going to have to be, you know, two against one.
我会按他们的意思去做，我这个人就是这样。
And I'll do whatever they want because that's how I am.
但你得让自己处在一种位置上，我觉得大多数CEO都明白，总会遇到不好的结果。
But it's, you know, you want to get yourself in a position in life, and I think most CEOs understand this, you are going to have bad outcomes.
坏结果是难免的。
There are going to be bad outcomes.
但千万别让一次失败就定义了你的全部。
But never put yourself in a situation where one bad outcome defines who you are.
那些股东当然会不高兴。
I mean, for those shareholders, they're going to be unhappy.
但后来我接到了关于IPO的电话。
But then I got the call on the IPO.
那些股东就会非常高兴了。
Those shareholders are going be very happy.
他们能赚四倍。
They're to make four X.
那是我经手的一个项目。
So that was one of my deals.
所以你要学会接受这样一个事实：你总会失败。
And so it's sort of like learn to live with the idea that you're going to fail.
冒险就有可能亏钱。
You're going to lose money by taking risk.
这会永久改变人际关系吗？
Will it change relationships permanently?
也许吧。
Maybe.
但如果你受人尊敬、诚实又坦诚，大概就不会。
But if you're respected and you're honest and you're transparent, probably not.
我觉得很多人因为我的直率而不喜欢我。
I think there's a lot of people don't like me for my bluntness.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我觉得很多人其实欣赏我直来直去的性格。
I think a lot of people respect me for my bluntness.
他们可能不喜欢我。
They may not like me.
但说实话，这并不重要，因为我真正在乎的，也就那么二十来个家人和密友。
And, you know, it's sort of it doesn't matter because the only people that really matter to me are probably my twentieth, closest friends in my family.
你觉得，要是没跟史蒂夫·乔布斯合作过，你会是完全不同的人吗？
Do you think if you hadn't worked with unknown Steve Jobs, you would be a different person?
绝对会。
A 100%.
史蒂夫彻底改变了我的人生。
Steve changed my life.
这一点毫无疑问。
There's no question.
我当初并不喜欢他，但他以那样的方式离开，我至今都感到很难过。
I didn't like him, but I feel so bad that he he didn't have to die that way.
他就是不肯接受当时主流的医学方案。
He just wouldn't go with the modern medicine at the time.
这是我的看法。
It's my view.
这家伙简直是天才。
Guy was a freaking genius.
他特别擅长专注做事，看看他取得了多大的成就。
He was so smart in terms of keeping on track to get getting stuff done and look what he achieved.
但他很难相处。
But he was difficult.
难相处是因为他并不总是对的。
Difficult because he wasn't always right.
但他对得太多了，错的那些根本不算什么。
But he was right so much that the mistakes just didn't matter.
我觉得，那些和他相处久了的人，都懂我说的意思。
And I thought, you know, the people that spend enough time with him know what I'm talking about.
你知道吗，我想到了一件事，因为我对沃兹尼亚克也挺了解的，虽然没像对乔布斯那么熟，但他们俩真是缺一不可。
You know, it occurred to me, because I know Wozniak too, not as well as Jobs, but they really needed each other.
他们俩真的互相离不开。
They really needed each other.
因为奥斯瓦尔德明白，让我打个比方给你听。
Because Oswald understood, he was he understood what the let me draw an analogy here for you.
我觉得这个比喻挺贴切的。
I think it's a good one.
你看现在 NVIDIA、AMD，还有某种程度上的英特尔，可能还有博通，华盛顿的政策制定者决定不能把这些芯片卖给中国、俄罗斯，或者名单上的其他对手国家。
Take the situation going on right now with NVIDIA, AMD, to a certain extent Intel, maybe Broadcom, where policymakers in Washington have decided that we can't sell those chips to countries like China or Russia or whatever the list is of adversaries.
这政策太糟糕了。
That's bad policy.
原因在这儿：
And here's why.
我从乔布斯身上学到的是，电脑、芯片，才是核心。
What I learned from Jobs was the computer, the chip, is the queen bee.
它才是核心。
It's the queen bee.
但如果没有周围的程序员群体——那些像工蜂一样围绕着它、倾注全部精力开发兼容代码的人——这核心就毫无价值。
But it has no value without the honeybees, which are the programmers around it that form a community that spend all of their energy writing code that works with the queen bee, which is the chip, that pushes out its influence.
每一个熟悉那款固件、为沃兹的电脑平台写代码的开发者，都是这些工蜂之一。
Because every coder that becomes familiar with that firmware, that Wozniak computer, writes to that platform is part of the honeybees.
乔布斯明白这个道理。
Jobs understood that.
他说，我必须让所有开发者都为麦金塔、为苹果的操作系统写代码。
He said, I've got to get every honeybee writing for the Mac, for the OS of Apple.
NVIDIA的芯片也是一样。
It's the same with the NVIDIA chip.
我们得把芯片卖给所有人。
We need to sell it to everybody.
包括那些对手。
Even adversaries.
因为在俄罗斯或者中国，可能有个你根本不知道的天才孩子，将来会基于这个核心芯片开发出下一代固件或推动人工智能的突破。
Because within that country of Russia or China is some genius kid you don't know who he is or she is that's going to write the next piece of firmware or advance AI from the queen bee.
就是这个芯片。
The chip.
美国的这个核心芯片。
The American queen bee.
一旦你封锁某个市场，你的对手就会把他们的核心芯片——比如华为——送进来，我们绝不能让这种事发生，因为我觉得立法者还没明白乔布斯当年看透的道理。
The minute you shut down a market and you don't your adversary sends their queen bee in, which is Huawei, We can't let that happen because I don't think the lawmakers understand what Jobs understood.
你要把蜂巢建起来，让核心芯片居中。
You create the hive with the queen in the middle.
这个核心就是芯片。
That's the chip.
你要让周围的每一个开发者都愿意为它写代码，也就是开发软件和人工智能。
You convince every bee around to make the honey, which is the software and is the AI in this case.
所有这些都要围绕这个芯片展开。
You make it off that chip.
当你再次升级芯片时，所有人都知道该怎么用这套系统，始终围绕着你正在发展的美国芯片，或许你只需保持一代的领先。
And when you advance the chip again, everybody knows how to take that set and stay within the American chip that you're advancing, maybe you keep the one generation behind.
也许吧。
Maybe.
也许这正是该采取的策略。
Maybe that's the policy.
但你绝不能让对手把他们的蜂后放进蜂巢中央。
But you don't ever let an adversary put their queen bee in the middle of the hive.
你明白我的意思吧？
You see what I'm saying?
当然。
Of course.
我的意思是
I mean
这正是乔布斯所做的。
And that is what Jobs did.
那是盖茨和乔布斯在操作系统上的较量。
That was the war between Gates and Jobs on the OS, on the operating system.
是的。
Yeah.
我在想那个应用商店的事。
Was thinking about the App Store
其实是一回事。
It's the same thing.
完完全全是一回事。
It's exactly the same thing.
所以现在看到这个政策，我简直要炸了。
And so when I see this policy now, I go out of my mind.
我的第一反应就是立刻飞去华盛顿，因为人工智能对我所有的投资都太重要了。
I mean, the first thing I do is get on plane and go to Washington, because AI is so important for all the investments I've made.
我绝对不想让中国的产品渗透进我的公司。
I do not want to be putting Chinese honey into my companies at all.
就这么简单。
It's that simple.
所以对于那些正为自己的点子纠结的人，如果他们能有几分钟时间跟你聊聊，问你一句：凯文，我打算创业了……
So for that person that's stewing over their ideas now, if they had just a couple of minutes with you and they and they asked you the question, Kevin, I'm about to start this business.
我打算从零开始，彻底改变自己的人生。
I'm about to go on this journey of trying to go from zero to something in my life.
在开启未来十年人生旅程之前，还有什么是我必须知道的吗？
Is there anything else that I need to know as I set up on this sort of next ten years of my life?
我才21岁。
I'm 21 years old.
因为我觉得每个创业者都有自己的一套原则。
Are because I think every entrepreneur has like their principles.
你提到过一个，就是区分信号和噪音。
You talked about one, which is the signal versus noise thing.
还有没有其他一些根本性的原则，你觉得对成功特别关键？
Are there any other foundational principles that you think are conducive with success?
你可能已经学到的？
That you might have learned?
是的。
Yeah.
我现在跟21岁的人说，你先去一个你真正热爱的行业干上两年，哪怕不给你工资也去。
I mean, I'm telling 21 year olds now is, look, go work for twenty four months in a sector you love, that you're passionate about, even if they don't pay you.
去那里当学徒。
Go in there and be an apprentice.
只要你足够热情，就能说服某个主管让你免费干活。
If you're that passionate, you're gonna be able to convince some manager to go work for free in there.
他们会看到你的热情，自然会把你收下。
You're just they're gonna recognize your passion, and they're gonna bring you in.
先这么做。
Do that first.
大多数年轻创业者都说，不，我可不想给任何人打工。
Most young entrepreneurs say, nah, nah, I don't want work for anybody.
我说了，你其实真的想。
Said, yeah, you do actually.
你就是想先为别人工作。
You do want to work for somebody.
你想搞清楚整个系统是怎么运转的。
You want to just understand how all the cogs move.
就二十四个月。
Just 24.
之后再自己创业。
And after that, launch.
第一次大概率会失败。
The first one will probably fail.
你一开始可能会靠父母给的十万块，或者朋友家人凑的钱。
You're going to start with your parents giving you $10,000 or whatever it is, friends and family.
但那时候你已经掌握了行业的基本运作方式。
But you will have the baseline knowledge of your industry.
你会清楚都是哪些人参与其中。
You will know who the participants are.
你会明白整个机制是怎么运作的。
You will understand how it works.
你成功的几率也会大得多。
And you'll have a much higher probability of success.
但关键是得在二十多岁中期甚至早期就启动，因为你得花几年时间去试错。
But the key is to launch sort of in your mid to early twenties because you need to burn a few years failing.
这一点很重要。
And that matters.
说到如何领导团队，人们一听乔布斯的做法，有时就会以为你也得是个难相处的人。
On the point of how to lead people, when people hear about Jobs' approach, they sometimes assume that you also have to be an asshole.
这其实是个矛盾的地方，因为自从乔布斯那个年代以来，世界已经变了。
And this is the this is the conflicting thing because the world has changed since Jobs was in a leadership position.
现在的情况稍微温和了一些，这么说吧。
Things have gone a little bit more soft, shall one say.
在这一点上，你见过各种领导风格都取得成功吗？
Have you seen all types of leadership win out in that regard?
一种直接、专注目标、有点粗暴的方式，还有那种温和的方式？
The direct, you know, signal focused kind of brash approach, but also the kind approach?
我觉得温和没用。
I don't think kind works.
我觉得尊重才有效。
I think respect works.
现在和九十年代一样，到处都是那些成功的混蛋。
The same number of assholes are out there being successful now as they were back in the '90s.
你是不是混蛋，别人喜不喜欢你，其实都不重要。
It doesn't matter whether you're an asshole or whether people like you or not.
人们太纠结于这些事了。
I mean, people get so stuck on this stuff.
你组建的团队不是你的朋友。
It's the team you're building are not your friends.
他们是为你执行任务而组建的团队。
They are the team you're building to execute on a mandate.
客户永远排在第一位。
Your customers come first.
他们更重要。
They're more important.
然后才是员工，他们是否得到应有的尊重。
And then, of course, the employees and how are they respected or not.
我手下有些人，我并不喜欢。
There are people that work for me I don't like.
这没关系。
It doesn't matter.
但我尊重他们。
I respect them.
我尊重他们完成工作的能力。
I respect their ability to execute.
而最重要的是这一点。
And that above all is the most important thing.
如果你开始掺杂个人感情，迟早会失败，因为你总有一天可能得解雇那个人。
If you start getting into interpersonal relationships, you will fail because you may have to fire that person one day.
雇用亲戚的人，风险实在太大了。
People that hire family take huge risk.
任人唯亲是一种严重的弊病。
Nepotism is a horrible disease.
世界上一些最成功的企业，从不让子女来掌管公司。
It's it's some of the greatest private companies on earth never let the kids run them.
他们只让子女进入董事会，然后聘请专业管理团队。
They just put them on the board and they hire professional management.
这才是财富代代相传的秘诀。
That's how they keep wealth multigenerational.
比如特瑞普纸业，你想想看。
Think about Tetra Pak, for example.
也许很多人没听过这个名字，但这家公司非常成功。
People may not know that name, but it's a massive successful company.
宜家。
IKEA.
我的意思是，这些教训你确实得学会。
I mean, you know, it's sort of you have to learn those lessons.
关键是相互之间的尊重。
It's it's it's about respect in both directions.
跟是否讨人喜欢、够不够温柔，或者别的社交标准没关系。
It's not about likability or softness or some social metric.
真的没关系。
It it really isn't.
要是只因为现在流行就重新定义领导力，那是行不通的。
And trying to redefine leadership that way because it's on trend, it's not gonna work.
我12岁就创办了第一家公司，之后在14岁、15岁、16岁、17岁和18岁又陆续开了更多公司。
I started my first business at 12 years old, and I started more businesses at 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18.
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