Moment 157: The Money Expert's Investment Strategy NO ONE Is Talking About: Morgan Housel

自信往往来自成功，但它确实会让人产生盲点。

Confidence, which comes from success often, really does create blind spots.

这一点我经常思考。

And that's something I think about so much.

我该如何在生活的各个方面保持对盲点的警觉，这些盲点无疑是由我取得的成功造成的？

How do I stay aware of those blind spots in my life that the success I've had in various areas has undeniably created?

说实话，很多时候我只是对自己说：“史蒂夫，多存点钱吧。”

And honestly, a lot of it, I just go, "Just save loads of money, Steve."

因为当你犯错的那一天，你不想破产。

Because the day you're wrong, you don't want to go broke.

我经常想到这一点。

I often think about that.

每当我的职业生涯落幕时，我想确保我能说：“嘿，谢谢你让我拥有这一切。

Whenever the curtain comes down on my career, I want to make sure that I can say, "Hey, thank you for letting me have this.

我非常感激，但我已经存够了钱，准备好把接力棒交给别人了。”

I'm so grateful for it, but I've saved enough that I'm ready to pass the baton to someone else."

这也是一种谦逊的表现。

And that's a form of humility, too.

丹泽尔·华盛顿在威尔·史密斯打了克里斯·洛克之后，对他说过一句话。

There's a quote from Denzel Washington where he's talking to Will Smith after Will Smith slapped Chris Rock.

你还记得那场闹剧吗？

Remember that whole debacle?

那场演出之后，丹泽尔·华盛顿走到威尔·史密斯面前说：“威尔，当你事业处于巅峰时，那就是魔鬼找上你的时候。”

After that show, Denzel Washington comes up to Will Smith and he says, "Will, when you're at your highest moment in your career, that's when the devil's going to get you."

就是说，当你事业如日中天，名气大得不得了，觉得自己无所不能的时候，那就是你惹上麻烦的时候。

And it's like, when your career is so high and you're so famous and you think so highly of yourself that you can do anything, that's when you're going to get yourself into trouble.

这句话真有力。

What a powerful quote.

我觉得只要留意这一点，那就是一种自然的谦逊。

And I think just paying attention to that, that's the natural humility that goes into it.

而且这不是装出来的谦逊。

And it's not false humility.

不是那种假谦虚，比如“这些都不是我做的”。

It's not like, false humility is like, "I didn't do any of this.

“我只是运气好。”

I just got lucky."

那全是假谦虚。

That's all false humility.

我觉得真正的谦虚是，“我是靠努力和正确的决定走到今天的，但我也就是个普通人。”

I think real humility is like, "I built this through hard work, and I made some good decisions, but I'm just a guy.

“我跟别人一样会犯错。”

I'm as fallible as anybody else."

我觉得这不仅重要，而且对任何可持续的成功来说都是关键。

I think that's not just important, I think that's critical to any amount of sustainable success.

你教过我，变得富有所要付出的代价，就是一路上必须承受的波动。

You taught me that the price you pay to be wealthy is the volatility you have to incur along the way.

我大概就是这么想的。

It's kind of how I think about it in my head.

这就是入场费。

That's the cost of admission.

成为什么？

To being what?

成为富人，还有……

To being wealthy and to-

任何程度的成功，都要忍受和承受未知、波动、起起落落，以及你在投资市场、职业生涯和人际关系中要面对的其他乱七八糟的事情。

To any level of success is putting up with and enduring unknowns and volatility and booms and busts, and the other bullshit that you put up with in the investing market and in your career and in your relationships.

总是有代价的。

There's always a cost.

生活中任何美好的东西，都需要付出代价。

For anything good in life, there's a cost that you have to pay.

当然。

Of course.

没有什么是免费的。

Nothing's free like that.

但你付出的多数代价，并不是那种能清清楚楚标出价钱的。

But most of the costs that you pay, they don't have a price tag that you can just measure very cleanly.

投资做得好，代价就是得忍受波动。

The cost of doing well in investing is putting up with volatility.

事业成功的代价，可能就是长时间加班，没法陪家人。

The cost of a successful career might be long hours where you are pulled away from your family.

一段关系的代价，就是总要为对方牺牲和妥协。

The cost of a relationship is always needing to sacrifice and compromise for the other person.

天下没有免费的午餐，而人生中很多成功，关键就在于认清代价是什么，并且愿意去付。

Nothing is ever free, and so much of the success in life is just identifying what the cost is and being willing to pay it.

因为我刚才说的那些——投资、事业、感情——入场费都是值得的。

Because for all of those things I just laid out, investing, career, relationships, the cost of admission is worth it.

长期来看，忍受波动是值得的。

Putting up with the volatility is worth it over time.

因为如果你能扛住股市跌30%，能对自己说‘哎呀，没什么大不了的，我就拿着不动’，那么十年后回头看，这点代价完全值得。

Because if you can put up with the stock market falling 30%, if you can just say, "Ah, it's not that big a deal, I'm just going to hold tight," 10 years from now, the cost is well worth doing that.

你会变得很有钱。

You'll be rich.

如果你能忍受维持一段成功感情所需要的妥协，那总的来说，这笔代价是值得付出的。

If you can put up with the compromise that it takes to have a successful relationship, by and large, that's going to be a cost that's worth paying.

因为你知道，生活中真正重要的很多东西，其实就是你拥有的那些关系。

Because you know so much of what matters in life is just the relationships that you have.

一旦你明确了这段感情的代价，你就会觉得：'哦，这种代价我随时都愿意付。'

And once you identify the cost of that relationship, you're like, "Oh, I'll pay that cost all day long.

太值得了。

It's so worth it."

但这需要你清楚自己的时间跨度，这也是你在《金钱心理学》第16章里经常谈到的。

But this requires you to be cognizant of time horizons and your own time horizons, which is something you talk a lot about in chapter 16 of "The Psychology of Money."

为什么了解自己的时间跨度很重要？你说的'时间跨度'又是什么意思？

Why is it important for us to know our time horizons, and what do you mean by time horizon?

时间跨度就是从现在到你达成目标之间的这段时间，每个人的情况都不一样。

It's the amount of time between now and whatever your goal is, which is very different for everybody.

不只是看年龄，比如你想早点退休或者别的什么。

Not just by your age, but if you want to retire early or whatever it be.

每个人的时间跨度都会有点不一样。

Everyone's going to have a slightly different time horizon.

你的呢？

What's yours?

你可以把它分成几个不同的阶段。

You would break it up into different chunks.

我想达到一个状态，或者可能我正在接近职业生涯中的一个点，就是做事情纯粹是因为喜欢。

I want to get to a point, or maybe I'm nearing a point in my career where I'm just doing things because I enjoy them.

我做这些事真的没有什么经济上的动力。

There's really no financial incentive to what I'm doing.

这是一个时间跨度。

That's one time horizon.

另一个是，等我的孩子慢慢长大，我想确保他们需要我的时候我总是在他们身边。

Another is, okay, once my kids start getting older, I want to make sure that I'm always there for them when they need me.

青少年时期对人们来说真的很难。

Teenage years are so difficult for people.

全天候我都会在你身边，这意味着我得适当退后一步。

24/7, I'll be there for you, which means I'm going to have to pull back.

总有一天我会说：'看，我在写作上已经实现了我想做的事，我想转向其他事情。'

There's going to be a point where I just say, "Look, I've accomplished what I want to with writing, and I want to be able to move on to something else."

而且总有一天我会说：'我真的不想再工作那么多了。

And there's going to be a point where I say, "I really don't want to work that much anymore.

我只想继续前进。

I just want to move on.

也许我需要照顾我的父母。'

Maybe I need to take care of my parents."

所以在你人生的不同阶段，会有不同的时间跨度和目标。

So there's multiple different time horizons at different goals of your life.

买房是好的还是坏的财务决策？

Is buying a house a good or bad financial decision?

我跟你说说我自己的经历吧，我二十多岁到三十出头那会儿，我和我老婆住过七个不同的城市，对我们来说没有比这更好的了。

I'll tell you my own experience, which was in my 20s and early 30s, my wife and I lived in seven different cities, and there was nothing better for us.

有些城市就是觉得好玩，想去试试。

Some of those were just like, let's try this new city for fun.

有些是因为工作搬的。

Some of it was moving for work.

我们还为了她上学搬过。

We moved for her school.

那种想走就走，把钥匙还给房东的能力，对我们来说是最宝贵的。

And our ability to just get up and go, hand the keys back to the landlord, nothing was more valuable than that.

但自从我们有了儿子，第一个孩子之后，对我来说，最宝贵的就是有一个稳定的、安全的家，谁也夺不走。

Once we had our son, our first kid, then very quickly, nothing became more valuable to me than having an established, secure home base that nobody could take away from me.

那就是解药。

That was the cure.

而且，小孩子又吵又闹，我可不想住在公寓楼里，还得想办法让孩子别吵到邻居。

And also, kids are loud and they scream, and I didn't want neighbors in an apartment building that I was going to have to try to keep my kid quiet from.

所以我就想，"我想要一栋属于自己的房子，就是那种独立的房子。"

So I was like, "I want my own house that's mine, and it's just a standalone house.

"我的孩子想怎么喊就怎么喊，不会打扰到别人。"

My kid can scream as loud as he wants, not bothering anybody else."

那一刻，这对我来说就变得特别重要。

That became important to me instantly.

所以我觉得人们容易陷入一种误区，比如他们会说，"房产市场每年回报率有4.5%。"

So I think people get caught up when they're like, "Well, the housing market returns 4.5% per year."

我就想说，别再看那些数据了。

It's like, stop with the spreadsheets.

做适合自己的选择就好。

Just do what's going to work for you.

我知道拉米特·塞西对租房和买房有很多看法。

I know Ramit Sethi has a lot of thoughts about this on renting versus buying.

我觉得我和拉米特的一个不同点是，我有两个年幼的孩子。

And I think one of the differences between Ramit and myself is I have two young kids.

所以如果我没有孩子，我想我会一直租房。

And so if I didn't have kids, I think I would be rent forever.

真的吗？

Really?

然后尝试不同的城市。

And try different cities.

到处搬家。

Move all around.

还有比这更好的吗？

What can be better than that?

但有了孩子之后，对我来说更重要的是稳定。

But when you have kids, what's more important to me is stability.

我希望我的孩子能上一所稳定的学校，认识邻居，交到能保持多年友谊的朋友。

I want my kids to go to a stable school, know their neighbors, have friends that they can be friends with for years.

这很重要。

That's important.

那如果我们只从投资的角度来看，买房是不是一个好的财务投资？

If we just think about investing then, in terms of is buying a house a good financial investment?

我弟弟，他在我们公司工作，也是多年前介绍我读你书的那个人，他跟我说过类似这样的话：“史蒂夫，别为了赚钱而买房，因为你有能力玩一些很少有人能玩的游戏。”

My brother, who works in my company, and he's the one that introduced me to your book many years ago, said to me something along the lines of, "Steve, don't buy houses to make money because you have the ability to play a different set of games that very few people can play."

他跟我解释了一下，我才明白他的意思。

And what I mean by that is he kind of explained it to me.

他说：“听着，每个人都能买房，所以那里的回报不会很大。”

He goes, "Listen, everyone can buy a house, so the returns there aren't going to be huge."

“去找一个只有你能玩的游戏——”

"Go find a game that only you can play-"

对

Yes

“——这样你就能获得更大的回报。”

"... and you'll get bigger returns."

如果你买房是因为觉得它是一个好的财务投资，那就别买了。

If you're buying a house because you think it's going to be a good financial investment, stop.

即使事后看来确实是笔好投资，那也不重要。

Even if it turns out in hindsight that it was, it doesn't matter.

我觉得这些纯粹是生活方式的选择。

I think these are just purely lifestyle decisions.

而且我觉得很多人之所以陷入困境，是因为他们处于人生中应该租房、需要灵活变动的阶段。

And I think so many people get screwed up when they're in a spot in their life where they should be renting because they need to be mobile.

他们需要为了新工作、新职业、新学校或其他什么而搬家。

They need to move around to a new job, new career, new school, whatever it is.

但他们最终却买了房子，因为他们觉得这样能赚钱。

But they end up buying because they think they're going to make money doing it.

这就是大问题所在。

That's the big problem.

对，这就是问题所在。

And that's the problem.

所以我拥有一栋房子，如果最后亏了钱，我也不会太在意。

So I own a house, and if I ended up losing money on it, I don't think I'd care.

我买房不是为了这个。

That's not why I'm owning it.

我买房只是为了给家人一个稳定的环境。

I'm owning it just because I want the stability for my family.

我刚刚对我人生中的第一套房子出了价，因为过去十年我一直在玩其他的金钱游戏。

I've just made an offer on my first ever house because I played other money games for the last decade of my life.

现在我有伴侣了，我们在一起很多年了，我们都31岁了，现在到了这个阶段。

And now I have a partner, and we've been together many years, and we're both 31 years old, and we're getting into that position now.

我哥哥跟我解释说，他说：“听着，这在财务上不是个好决定，但在情感和社交生活上是个好决定，你需要知道如何把这两者分开。”

And my brother explained to me, he goes, "Listen, this is a bad financial decision, but it's a good emotional, social life decision, and you need to know how to separate the two.

别把这当成你赚钱的方式。

Don't mark this down as a way that you're trying to make money.

你可能会赚钱——

You might make money in-"

——如果你20年后还住在那里的话。

"... 20 years' time if you're still living there.

把它看作是你需要有个地方住。

Look at it as you need somewhere to live."

他肯定是从你那里学来的。

And he must have got that from you.

我们买上一栋房子的时候，那是在我写完这本书之后，所以这是不同的经历，我当时觉得，现在也还是觉得，我可能付得有点多。

When we bought our last house, which was after I wrote this book, so this is a different experience, I thought at the time and still think today, I probably paid a little bit too much.

我付的是市场价，但如果你问我：“嘿，你买到好价钱了吗？”

I paid the market rate, but if you said, "Oh, did you get a good deal?"

我会说：“完全没有。”

I'd say, "No, not at all."

我一点都不在乎。

Didn't bother me in the slightest.

那不是我买房子的目的。

That's not what I was doing it for.

这就像如果有人问，当你在考虑要不要孩子的时候，想到养孩子的费用，那就算了吧。

It would be like if you ask, if someone is deciding whether or not to have kids and they think about the cost of kids, forget about it.

当然，你会在孩子身上投入几十万甚至上百万美元。

Of course, you're going to dump hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars into your kids.

如果钱成了考虑因素，那就到此为止吧。

If money is coming into the equation, stop right there.

不应该因为钱而做这件事。

It should not do it.

你做这件事是出于完全不同的原因。

You're doing it for very different reasons.

这不是投资。

This is not an investment.

人们买房是因为他们觉得能从中赚很多钱。

People buy houses because they think that they're making loads of money from doing it.

因为确实有过一段时期，人们从中赚了很多钱。

Because there have been periods of time in which people have made loads of money.

从历史上看，那才是反常现象。

Historically, that's the anomaly.

从历史上看，在美国和英国，扣除通货膨胀后的房价其实没怎么涨。

Historically, in the US and the UK, housing prices adjusted for inflation go nowhere.

只是最近二三十年，才有这么一小段时间，买房成了很好的投资。

It's just been the last 20 or 30 years that there's this very brief window of time that owning a house was a great investment.

罗伯特·席勒大约十年前获得了诺贝尔奖，他的研究显示，过去150年里，美国大多数房价在扣除通货膨胀后基本持平。

Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize about a decade ago for his work in showing that over the last 150 years in the United States, adjusted for inflation, most home prices have been flat as a pancake.

只是最近20年，人们才对房子的增值能力有了过高的期待。

It's just the last 20 years that have inflated people's expectations of what a house can do.

从统计上看，现在听我们节目的听众里，至少有一个人正在出价买房，而且觉得这能帮他们积累财富。

Statistically, there's going to be at least one person listening to this that has made an offer as we speak for a house under the assumption that it's going to help them stack wealth.

如果他们纯粹是为了这个目的，你会建议他们怎么做？

If they were purely doing it for those reasons, what would you tell them to do instead?

如果纯粹是为了这个，那就赶紧跑吧。

If that's purely the reason, run for your life.

别买。

Don't do it.

特别是，以前的情况是，而且可能现在在美国和英国的很多城市还是这样，但以前租房几乎无一例外都是破房子。

Particularly, it used to be, and maybe it still is like this in many cities in America and the UK, but it used to be that rentals were almost without exception, shitty houses.

根本没有什么好房子可以租。

There were no good rentals.

至少在美国，过去20年一个很大的变化是，大多数大城市都有大量豪华公寓可以住，而且这些地方非常适合居住。

A big change, at least in America in the last 20 years, is that most big cities have tons and tons of luxury apartments to live in, and that are great places to live.

它们位于市中心，有漂亮的花岗岩台面，是非常好的居住环境。

And they're in the city centers, and they got beautiful granite countertops, and they're great places to live.

不要被那种想法迷惑，觉得租房就不能过上好生活。

Don't fall for the idea that you can't live well if you're renting.

我觉得问题就在这儿。

I think that's the problem.

还要意识到，如果你是为了财务原因买房，那你可能正要借一大笔钱去投资一个历史上一直表现很差的投资品。

And realize that if you're doing it for financial reasons, you're probably about to borrow a shitload of money for an investment that historically has been a very bad investment.

如果这么说的话，我们到底在干什么呢？

If you put it in those terms, what are we doing here, man?

你要借几十万美元去投资一个历史上一直在亏钱的项目。

You're going to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars for an investment that historically has been a loss.

这就是你现在在做的事吗？

That's what you're doing here?

你对此感觉好吗？

Do you feel good about that?

这就是我会对那个人说的话。

That's what I'd say to that person.

祝你好运。

Godspeed.