最重播时刻：核弹落下时会发生什么！这些国家将是安全的！

我最常思考的事情，尤其是在我外出时，包括现在坐在SEO工作室里，就是我们所使用的Wi-Fi和互联网。

The thing I think about most, especially when I'm on the go, also when I'm sat here in the Diary of SEO studio is the Wi Fi and Internet that we have to work with.

事实上，每当我离开工作室拍摄时，一到地方，我做的第一件事就是打开一个应用，进行网速测试，看看信号有多强。

In fact, anytime I'm filming away from the studio, one of the first things I do is when I arrive, I open up an app and do a speed test to see how strong the signal is.

我发给团队的关于不同地点Wi-Fi信号的截图数量，实际上多得惊人。

And the number of screenshots I've sent to my team about WiFi signals at different locations is actually pretty crazy.

这对我来说非常重要，因为拥有快速的Wi-Fi是一项巨大的竞争优势。

It matters that much to me because it's such a competitive advantage to have fast WiFi.

因为任何一天，如果我正在录制数小时的播客嘉宾内容，我通常需要让团队把文件发送给我们在伦敦的团队进行剪辑。

Because on any given day, if I'm recording, let's say hours and hours of footage with a podcast guest, I then often have to have my team send that across to our London team who then do the edit.

所以，快速的Wi-Fi互联网不是可有可无的。

So fast WiFi Internet is not a nice to have.

它绝对是业务运营的关键需求。

It is absolutely business mission critical.

因此，当我们寻找为我们的新洛杉矶工作室（我现在就坐在这里）提供互联网和Wi-Fi的最佳供应商时，我们考察了所有选项，其中提供最稳定连接且价格最低的是今天的赞助商Spectrum Business。

So when it came to finding the best provider who could supply Internet and WiFi to our new LA studio, which I'm sat in right now, We looked at every single option and of all the providers, the one that came back with the steadiest connection as well as being the cheapest was today's sponsor Spectrum Business.

Spectrum Business 为各种规模的企业提供快速、可靠的互联网、高级Wi-Fi、电话、电视和移动服务。

Spectrum Business keeps businesses of all sizes connected with fast, reliable internet, advanced wifi, phone, TV and mobile services.

数以百万计的企业主已经依赖Spectrum来保持其业务的连通性。

Millions of business owners already rely on Spectrum to keep their operations connected.

所以，如果你想加入他们，请前往 spectrum.com/business 了解更多信息。

So if you want to join them, head to spectrum.com/business to learn more.

网址是 spectrum.com/business。

That's spectrum.com/business.

适用限制条件。

Restrictions apply.

服务并非在所有地区都可用。

Service not available in all areas.

如果我是一只墙上的苍蝇——当然，那时候墙上也不会剩下什么了——当我看着美国或英国在遭到成千上万枚俄罗斯或朝鲜核武器打击之后会是什么样子，我会看到什么？

If I was a fly on the wall, not that there would be a wall left, what would I what would I and I was looking at America or The UK after it'd been strike struck by these nuclear bombs by thousands of, you know, Russian or North Korean nuclear weapons.

我会看到什么？

What would I see?

袭击发生后的几分钟里，景象会是什么样的？

What would the visuals be in those minutes after the strike?

我来描述一下场景中击中五角大楼的第一颗炸弹。

I describe the first bomb in the scenario that strikes the Pentagon.

这是一颗一百万吨级的热核炸弹，我将详细描述其恐怖的破坏过程，所有内容均源自美国国防部文件以及几十年来致力于精确描述事物和人类遭遇的国防科学家的研究。

It's a one megaton thermonuclear bomb in painstaking horrific detail, all sourced from Defense Department documents, defense scientists who have worked for decades to describe precisely what happens to things and to humans.

这令人极度恐惧。

And it's horrifying.

但除了那1.8亿摄氏度的热核闪光——它能在九英里半径范围内点燃一切——之外，还有狂风的摧毁效应、建筑物的倒塌、更多火灾的接连引爆，以及辐射在几分钟、几小时、几天乃至几周内毒杀幸存者的过程。

But on top of the initial flash of thermonuclear light, which is 180,000,000 degrees, which catches everything on fire in a nine mile diameter radius, On top of the bulldozing effect of the wind and all the buildings coming down and more fires igniting more fires, on top of the radiation poisoning people to death in minutes and hours and days and weeks if they happen to have survived.

在这一切之上，每一个火源都会形成一个面积达一百平方英里或更大的超级火灾。

On top of all of that, each one of these fires creates a mega fire that is a 100 or more square miles.

那么，本质上，你会看到什么？

And so essentially, in essence, what do you see?

在场景中，第72分钟时，一千枚俄罗斯核弹落在美国境内。

Well, in the scenario at minute 72, a thousand Russian nuclear weapons land on The United States.

于是，这完全变成了一场大火的肆虐。

And so it just becomes a conflagration of fire.

就是火。

It's just fire.

火焰在燃烧。

Fires burning.

上百甚至两百平方英里的大火在燃烧。

Fires hundred, two hundred square mile fires burning.

然后我们进入核冬天。

And then we move into nuclear winter.

这就是书中结局的部分，我向你讲述核冬天，视角来自一位与卡尔·萨根在1983年共同撰写首篇核冬天论文的原始科学家。

And that's sort of the denouement of the book where I tell you about nuclear winter from the point of view of one of the original scientists who wrote that original nuclear winter paper with Carl Sagan back in 1983.

他的名字是布莱恩·图恩教授。

And his name is Professor Brian Toon.

自那以来，他数十年来一直利用最先进的气候模拟系统，这些系统如今能精确告诉我们核冬天将是什么样子。

And he's spent the decades since working with the state of the art climate modeling systems that can now precisely tell us what nuclear winter will look like.

因为我一直觉得，你知道吗？

Because I've always thought, you know what?

核战争也没那么糟糕。

Nuclear war wouldn't be that bad.

如果，你知道，俄罗斯向美国发射了一千枚核弹，而我现在就在纽约这里，我会瞬间死亡，所以根本不会意识到事情发生了。

If, you know, Russia launched a thousand of their nuclear bombs at The United States and I was here in New York where I am now, I would die instantly, so I wouldn't really know it happened.

这是真的吗？

Is that true?

我觉得你还是希望瞬间死去的好。

I think you would want to die instantly.

我的意思是，前苏联总理尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫说过一句话：核战争之后，幸存者会羡慕死者。

I mean, there's a quote from Nikita Khrushchev, the former premier of the Soviet Union, and he said, After nuclear war, the survivors would envy the dead.

因为对吧？

Because there is right?

如果你幸存下来，确实会有一种感觉：再也没有法律和秩序了。

There is this sense of if you survived I mean, there is no more law and order.

法律秩序不复存在。

There is no more rule of law.

没有政府了。

There is no government.

克雷格·富盖特明确指出了这一点。

Craig Fugate made that very clear.

军事指挥控制中心里的人所待的掩体——比如那些秘密掩体，不是我在书中提到的俄罗斯会摧毁的目标掩体，而是那些较小的掩体。

The bunkers that the people in the military command and control centers would be in, let's say the secret bunkers, not the ones that targets that Russia's going to take out that I write about in the book, but the smaller ones.

这些掩体只能在柴油发电机还有汽油运行时发挥作用。

Those are going to only function for as long as there's gasoline to run the diesel in, the diesel generators.

然后，那些人就得出来了。

And then those people are going to have to come out.

还有谁剩下？

And who's left?

当人们为剩余的微薄资源而争斗时，人类便回归到最原始、最暴力的状态。

It's man returning to the most primal, most violent state as people fight over the tiny resources that remain.

顺便说一下，他们全都营养不良。

And by the way, they're all malnourished.

每个人都生病了，大多数人已经失去了所有认识的人和一切。

Everybody's sick, and most people have lost everything and everyone they know.

那会是什么感觉？

How's that gonna feel?

那感觉就像你在第277页所描述的那样。

It's gonna feel as you describe here on page 277.

每个爆心上方，一千道强光将空气加热至一亿八千万华氏度，一千个直径超过一英里的火球，一千道陡峭的冲击波，一千堵压缩空气墙，一千座美国城市和城镇中，所有五、六或七英里半径内的工程结构都变形、坍塌并燃烧，一千座城市和城镇的沥青路面熔化，一千座城市和城镇的幸存者被飞溅的碎片刺穿致死，一千座城市和城镇里挤满了数千万具尸体，数千万不幸的幸存者遭受致命的三度烧伤，人们赤身裸体、衣衫褴褛、流血不止、窒息而亡，他们不再像人一样外表或行为。

There are a thousand flashes of light superheating the air in each ground zero to a 180,000,000 degrees Fahrenheit, a thousand fireballs each more than a mile in diameter, a thousand steeply fronted blast waves, a thousand walls of compressed air, a thousand American cities and towns where all where all engineered structures in five, six, or seven miles radius change physical shapes collapse and burn, a thousand cities and towns with molten asphalt streets, a thousand cities and towns with survivors impaled to death by flying debris, thousand cities and towns filled with tens of millions of dead people, with tens of millions of unfortunate survivors suffering fatal third degree burns, people naked, tattered, bleeding, and suffocating, people who don't look or act like people anymore.

在美国和欧洲，数亿人正在死亡或濒临死亡，而数百架军用飞机在空中盘旋，直到燃油耗尽。

Across America and Europe, hundreds of millions of people are dead and dying, while hundreds of military aircraft fly circles in the air until the until they run out of fuel.

我的意思是，那画面真是够震撼的。

I mean, that is that is some visual.

你觉得那七十二分钟后，会有多少人死去或濒临死亡？

How many people would be dead or dying, do you think, after those seventy two minutes?

数亿人在火球中丧生。

Hundreds of millions of people die in the fireballs.

毫无疑问。

No question.

但我认为非常值得思考的一个数字来自图恩教授及其团队，他们最近在《自然》杂志上发表了一篇论文，2022年，基于粮食问题更新了核冬天理论。

But the number that I think is very interesting to think about comes from Professor Thune and his team who wrote a paper for Nature recently, 2022, and sort of updated nuclear winter idea based around food.

他们得出的数字是：五百亿人将死亡。

And the number that they have is 5,000,000,000 people would be dead.

目前地球人口大约是80亿人，对吧？

The population of the planet currently is, what, 8,000,000,000?

是的。

Yes.

那么仍将有30亿人幸存。

So there'd be 3,000,000,000 people still alive.

我该去哪里才能成为那30亿幸存者中的一员？

Where shall I go to be one of the 3,000,000,000?

我刚去过新西兰和澳大利亚。

I was I was just in New Zealand and Australia.

那正是你应该去的地方。

That's exactly where you'd go.

不过，根据图恩的说法，这些地方是唯一可能维持农业的地方。

Although, according to Toon, those are the only places that could actually sustain agriculture.

我两周前刚去过那里。

I was there two weeks ago.

还不是两周前。

Not even two weeks ago.

大概是十天前。

Was maybe ten days ago.

我刚去过新西兰和澳大利亚。

Was in New Zealand and Australia.

那时候，我觉得伊朗袭击了以色列。

And at that time, I think Iran attacked Israel.

是的。

Yes.

我有点开心。

I was kinda happy.

你正好在对的地方。

You were in the right place

对的时间。

at the right time.

是的。

Yes.

因为我所在的位置，我有点开心，你知道的，我当时在想，我记得跟朋友聊过，然后我打开了一张地图。

Kinda happy for where I was located, if I'm gonna you know, and I was thinking, I actually remember talking to my friends, and I pulled up a map.

我想看看自己离所有地方有多远。

I was trying to see how far away I was from everything.

我当时在想，因为第三次世界大战的苗头是在推特上出现的。

I was thinking if because World War three started training on Twitter.

我在想，如果现在真的爆发了，我觉得我所在的位置可能还挺合适的。

I was thinking if if it does break out now, I think I'm pretty probably pretty well placed.

那里是该去的地方吗？

Is that the place to be?

没错。

That is.

根据图恩教授的说法，确实是这样。

That is according to professor Thun.

他对我真是太慷慨了。

Mean, he was so generous with me.

他分享了大量他给学生用的幻灯片。

He shared a lot of his slideshows that he has for his students.

而这些基本上就是现在所剩的全部了。

And that is really pretty much what's left.

我的意思是，世界上大部分地区，尤其是中纬度地区，都会被这些冰盖和淡水体覆盖。

I mean, because most of the world is Certainly the Mid Latitudes would be covered in these sheets of ice, the freshwater bodies.

像爱荷华州和乌克兰这样的地方，未来十年都将被积雪覆盖。

Places like Iowa and Ukraine would be just snow for ten years.

因此，农业将崩溃。

And so agriculture would fail.

一旦农业崩溃，人们就会死亡。

And when agriculture fails, people just die.

此外，还有辐射中毒的问题，因为臭氧层将被严重破坏，导致人们无法在阳光下活动。

On top of that, you have the radiation poisoning because the ozone layer will be so damaged and destroyed that you can't be outside in the sunlight.

因此，人们将被迫生活在地下。

And so people will be forced to live underground.

你必须想象人们生活在地下，为食物而争斗，除了新西兰和澳大利亚之外的所有地方。

And so you have to imagine people living underground, fighting for food, everywhere except for in New Zealand and Australia.

他还跟我分享了另一个有趣的细节：六千六百万年前，一颗小行星撞击地球，灭绝了恐龙以及大约70%的已知物种。

There was also another interesting detail that he shared with me that, you know, sixty six million years ago, an asteroid hit Earth and wiped out the dinosaurs and something like 70% of the known species.

图恩教授将核战争与那种情况进行了比较。

And Professor Toon compared nuclear war to that situation.

所以当你真正深入思考时，这一点也得到了联邦紧急事务管理局局长克雷格·富盖特的认同。

And so when you really think about it, and again, this was also echoed by Craig Fugate, FEMA's director.

你想想，对于小行星，我们目前什么都做不了。

You think about it, there's nothing we can do about an asteroid, at least not right now.

但战争是人为造成的威胁。

And yet there is something war is a man made threat.

因此，它必须有人为的解决方案。

And therefore, it has to be a man made solution.

解决方案是什么？

What is the solution?

我坚信，人能激励他人。

I really believe that people motivate other people.

这在最小的尺度上和最大的尺度上都是一个基本真理。

It's like a fundamental truth on the smallest scale and on the biggest scale.

因此，有一个人拥有巨大的力量，那就是美国总统。

And so there's one person who is incredibly powerful, and that is the president of The United States.

不管好坏，事实就是如此。

For better or for worse, it's just the way it is.

因此，就像总统拥有独自启动核战争的权力一样，总统也握有一支非常有力的笔，可以签署行政命令（EO）。

And so in the same way that the president has presidential sole authority to start a nuclear war, the president also has a very powerful pen with which he can write executive orders, an EO.

我所讲述的这个充满希望的故事是这样的。

And the story I tell on the hopeful note goes like this.

当我1983年上高中时，ABC电视台播过一部名为《第二天》的电视剧。

When I was in high school in 1983, there was an ABC TV movie called The Day After.

它描绘了美国与当时的苏联之间的一场虚构战争。

And it showed a fictional war between The United States and then Soviet Russia.

场面极其可怕和令人恐惧。

It was horrific and terrifying.

明白吗？

Okay?

一亿美国人观看了这部剧。

100,000,000 Americans watched it.

一亿美国人。

100,000,000 Americans.

这相当于三分之一的人口。

It was like the third of the population.

我觉得当时有一半的人口。

And I think it was half the population then.

里根总统就是这些美国人之一。

President Reagan was one of those Americans.

他在戴维营进行了私人放映。

He had a private screening at Camp David.

他的顾问告诉他不要看。

His advisers told him not to watch it.

但他还是看了。

He did watch it.

在那之前，里根总统是个鹰派。

Before that, President Reagan was a hawk.

他支持核武器。

He was pro nuclear weapons.

他的观点是核武器越多越好。

His position was the more nuclear weapons, the better.

他推动了星球大战计划（SDI）将核武器部署到太空。

He was the one putting nuclear weapons in space with the Star Wars program, the SDI program.

明白吗？

Okay?

他不可能更支持威慑优势了。

He couldn't have been more pro deterrence supremacy.

他看了之后，就改变了立场。

He saw the day after and he changed his position.

他在白宫日记中写道，自己变得非常沮丧。

He wrote in his White House journal that he became greatly depressed.

这是他自己的话。

His words.

他主动联系了戈尔巴乔夫。

And he reached out to Gorbachev.

然后他们举行了雷克雅未克峰会，在冰岛举行，里根和戈尔巴乔夫会面。

And then they had a Reykjavik summit, a summit in Iceland, Reagan and Gorbachev.

通过沟通，对吧？

And through communication, right?

通过他们双方意识到这是疯狂的，意识到可能发生的一切，看到事后的后果，明白天啊，这绝对不能发生。

Through both of them realizing this is madness, realizing what could happen, seeing the day after and realizing, my God, this cannot happen.

他们 famously 发表了一份联合声明，称核战争无法取胜，也绝不能打响。

And they famously issued a statement that said a nuke the joint statement between the two of them that said, a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.

雷克雅未克峰会的结果是，世界核弹头数量从七万枚开始减少。

And the result of the Reykjavik Summit was that the world has gone from 70,000 nuclear warheads.

那是历史最高点。

That was the all time high.

七万枚。

70,000.

为什么你需要七万个核弹头？

Why do you need 70,000 nuclear warheads?

这是1986年的数量。

That's what there were in 1986.

而现在，由于裁军和条约的推动，得益于这两位领导人，全球核弹头数量已降至大约一万两千五百枚。

And now here we are because of the reductions, because of the treaties, thanks to those two, twelve thousand five hundred approximately nuclear warheads.

这才是朝着正确方向的进展。

That is the movement in the right direction.

这一切源于一个震撼人心的故事，源于总统采取行动，因为人们再也无法容忍这种情况。

And it came from a dramatic story being told, and it came from the president taking action because people would not stand for this anymore.

当时爆发了大规模抗议活动。

There were massive protests.

你真的认为我们有朝一日能达到零核武器吗？

Do you believe we could ever get to zero, honestly?

这得由裁军专家来回答。

That is for the disarmament experts.

作为讲故事的人和调查记者，我喜欢坚守自己的领域。

I like to stay in my lane as a storyteller, as an investigative journalist.

我喜欢给你一个戏剧性强、节奏快的概述，然后把接力棒交给那些几十年来一直致力于这个问题的人，因为他们确实非常专业。

I like to give you the dramatic, fast read and then pass the baton to those who have been working on that issue for decades because, boy, are they qualified.

我有幸受邀前往布鲁塞尔，参加了核能博览会。

I just had the great fortune of being invited to Brussels, where I was part of a nuclear expo.

当时欧洲议会议员也在观众席中。

And there were members of the European Parliament in the audience.

还有许多裁军领域的专家也在场。

And there were all these disarmament people there.

我从中学到了很多关于这些团体的知识。

And I learned a lot about all of these groups.

他们有答案，这个问题应该去问他们。

And they have the answer, and they are the ones that should be asked that question.

他们正在为实现这一目标做大量工作。

And they are doing a lot to get us there.

几个月前，我上了ChatGPT，问了它。

I went on ChatGPT a couple of months ago, and I asked her.

我说，你能模拟一个场景吗？假设世界因为一个人工智能从它诞生的计算机中泄露出来而终结。

I said, could you play out a scenario where the world ends because an artificial intelligence basically gets leaked out of its out of the computer that it was born out born on.

它模拟的场景涉及核战争，因为我觉得在第三或第四步时，它说这个AI基本上控制了核弹头，嗯。

And it the scenario that it played out involved nuclear war because halfway I think it was in step three or four, it says that the AI basically takes control of the nuclear warheads Mhmm.

或者至少是其中一部分，然后它向其他国家发射了这些核弹。

Or at least some of them, and then it kinda launches them at other countries.

听到ChatGPT说，在第三或第四步就用核武器来让世界灭绝，我觉得这很可信。

And hearing Chachi PT say that and and it and in step three or four, use nuclear weapons as a way to kind of make the world extinct, it it felt plausible.

好的。

Okay.

我要对这个观点提出反驳，这并不一定正确。

So I'm going to push back against that, which is by no means right.

我并不是对的。

I'm not right.

但我们只是在进行一种理论上的讨论。

But we're just having a, like, sort of theoretical conversation here.

ChatGPT正在收集它的信息。

ChatGPT is gathering its information.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，ChatGPT从《终结者》这部电影中获取了大量信息。

So I would argue that ChatGPT has got a lot of information from the Terminator movie.

明白吗？

Okay?

这种想法已经融入了时代的主流观念中。

There is that in the zeitgeist of what happens.

接下来，我想让你考虑一下核指挥、控制与通信系统——也就是核指挥、控制和通信系统——其与实际武器通信的能力被高度保密，我根本没有权限接触。

Then I want you to consider that the communication systems in nuclear command and control, which is actually nuclear command, control and communication, The ability for NC3 to communicate with the actual weapons is so profoundly classified that I don't have access to it.

但我还是想把这个想法分享给你。

But I'm going to give this to you as an idea.

我通过报道核战争情景所了解并学到的一个有趣细节，至少对我来说，是一个很好的类比：我们的弹道导弹系统有多么模拟化，这正是由于你所描述的、以及ChatGPT向你反馈的那种恐惧。

What I do know and learned reporting nuclear war scenario is a fascinating detail that stands as an analogy, at least for me, which is how analog our ballistic missile systems are because of the exact fear that you described and that ChatGPT described back at you.

它们会永远保持这样吗？

And will they stay that way forever?

大概不会。

Probably not.

但它们现在是这样的吗？

But are they that way right now?

据我所知，是的。

From what I understand, yes.

我们潜射弹道导弹的技术基础非常古老，我为读者详细说明了这一点：你能从水下发射导弹，这简直令人震惊。

Our submarine launched ballistic missiles that are just so The technology behind them, and I delineate it for the reader, it's astonishing that you can launch a missile from underwater.

它能冲出水面。

It can breach the surface.

它的后燃器点火，然后开始飞行轨迹——助推阶段、中段阶段、末段阶段，最终击中目标。

It's after burners take off and then it begins its trajectory, you know, boost phase, mid course phase, terminal phase hits the target.

这太不可思议了。

This is incredible.

那它是怎么到达那里的？

And how does it get there?

你可能会问。

You might ask.

我问了。

I asked.

它是通过星象定位到达的。

It gets there by star sighting.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

所以你知道，弹道导弹上有一个小面板会打开。

So you realize there's this little panel that opens up in the ballistic missile.

还有其他导航方式。

And there are other ways that it's navigating.

但主要的导航方式是星象定位。

But the primary mean of navigation is star sighting.

我的意思是，你真的得停下来想一想：首先，这其实是一个非常有趣的概念——最先进、可能终结文明的弹道导弹，竟然依靠一种古老的方式导航到目标，而这种方式正是我们狩猎采集的祖先所使用的：仰望星空。

I mean, you just have to really stop and go, oh, First of all, it's actually a really interesting concept, that the most advanced potentially civilization ending ballistic missile is guiding itself to its target by this ancient concept that our hunter gatherer ancestors used, which is looking at the stars.

哦，所以它是通过观察星星并利用它们来导航的。

Oh, it's looking at the stars and then navigating using them.

而且

And

这是为了防范敌方控制你的核武器系统吗？

that's meant to be a defense against a system, an enemy taking control of your nuclear weapons?

我们面临的问题是，目前可能有九到十个不同的核国家，而它们并不都使用相同的系统。

The issue we have is that there's potentially nine or 10 different nuclear powers, and they don't all have the same system.

所以，如果我们达到通用人工智能的阶段，很多人几乎视其为奇点，几乎无法想象在那之后会发生什么——那时，我们身边将出现一种能够比人类更快、更广泛、更智能地思考的新存在，而我们做不到这些。我认为，它可能会把我们的系统看作儿戏。

So if we get to the point of AGI, which a lot of people almost see as the singularity, almost you can't see past that moment where there is a new being amongst us that is capable of thinking faster and more expansively and more intelligently than humans and those things we don't, I think it might look at our systems as child's play.

同样，也许它不会觉得我们的系统是儿戏，但可能会觉得朝鲜的系统是儿戏。

As well, maybe not our systems, but maybe it'll look at North Korea's systems as child's play.

它可能能够将那台录像机接入系统，播放出核模拟场景，欺骗那些人让他们相信自己正遭受攻击。

It might be able to put that VCR into the system and play out the nuclear simulation that tricks those people into believing they're being attacked.

所以，这或许正是回答你那个‘我们是否应该达到零核武’问题的时候了，对吧？

So Which is maybe time for the answer to your question of should we be at zero, right?

你所呈现的这一切，正是像我这样的人写一本书、让你这样的人——年轻一代——去阅读，并与他们的同事、思想领袖以及可能影响公共政策的人展开这些对话的初衷：这将是支持零核武器的强有力理由。

So what you have presented, which would be the whole point of somebody like me writing a book that somebody like you would read of a younger generation and begin having these conversations with their colleagues and their thought leaders and the people that could maybe influence public policy and saying, Well, that would be a very good reason to have zero nuclear weapons.

或者，你知道的，每个人都拥有10枚。

Or, you know, everybody gets 10.

我这只是随口一说。

I'm making that up.

但对吧？

But right?

因为如果你有12500枚核武器，虽然比70000枚要好，但对像你所说的那种人工智能触发场景来说，数量仍然太多了。

Because if you have 12,500 nuclear weapons, it's better than 70,000, but there's way too many for an artificially intelligent trigger scenario like you're talking about.

你乐观吗？

Are you optimistic?

对什么感到乐观？

Optimistic about?

我的天性就是乐观的人。

I mean, I am an optimistic person by nature.

所以，要

And so Do

你认为在人类历史上会发生核战争吗？

you think there will be a nuclear war in the course of humanity?

我写这本书时，是以一个乐观、充满希望的人的身份，希望你们读完后能明白：人为的问题，也有人为的解决方案。

I wrote this book as the optimistic, hopeful person that's saying, read this and realize that a man made problem has a man made solution.

之前，你提到过‘高后果、低概率’的情况。

Earlier, you talked about there being high consequence and low probability.

但随着时间推移，这种概率会自然上升，因为可能会出现这样一个疯狂的统治者，这就是我的看法。

But the more the years tick on, that probability increases by nature of there being this mad king that might So, at some you know and that's what I think.

所以我一直在问自己：如果我们把这一切推演下去，比如一千年以后，最有可能导致人类灭绝的原因是什么？

So I was asking myself, eventually, if we if we play this forward, don't know, a thousand years, what what is most likely to cause the end of humanity?

会不会是某个疯狂的国王，他并不希望——你知道，他意识到自己即将死亡，得了癌症，他明白自己快不行了，也不希望自己的儿子掌权。

Is it a mad king somewhere who doesn't want that you know, he realizes that he's gonna either die, he's got cancer, he realizes that, you know, he's got some sickness and he doesn't really want that his son to take power.

他开始变得有些焦躁。

He starts getting a bit agitated.

也许他患有某种精神疾病，比如精神分裂症，我不确定，但在临终前决定让几枚武器发射出去。

Maybe he has some kind of psychosis, schizophrenia, I don't know, decides to, in his dying days, to let a couple of these things fly.

这种情况最终会发生吗？

Is that eventually gonna happen?

概率法则和平均法则表明，我们存在的时间越长，拥有这些武器的时间越久，概率就越高。

The laws of probability, the laws of averages say that the longer we're here, the longer we have these weapons, the higher the probability.

我的意思是，这类问题还是交给你们这样的人去思考和讨论吧，因为我确实很感兴趣，我发现你们这一代人比我们这一代或更年长的人更常提出这样的问题。

I mean, I leave that to people like you to think about and talk about because I do and I am fascinated that I find that people of your generation ask that question a lot more than perhaps people of my generation and older.

像这样的想法，过去的人们并不一定经常谈论。

Like, that was not a mindset that people necessarily hadn't talked about.

我认为这与你所提到的事件交汇有关。

And I think that has to do with the confluence of events that you talk about.

首先，人们现在获取信息的方式与三四十年前大不相同，那时候需要付出更多努力。

First of all, people have access to information in a manner they didn't, you know, thirty, forty years ago, or it took a lot more effort.

而且，还有你提到的这些不容忽视的全新威胁。

And also that there are these incredible new threats that you're talking about that you cannot overlook.

因此，你会觉得现在是时候了——虽然我不是一个盲目乐观的人，但你必须摆脱把所有人和事都视为敌人的思维，转而接受拥有对手是正常的。

And so you would think that it's time to kind of and I'm not a Pollyanna but you have to move away from seeing everyone and everything as an enemy and moving toward it's fine to have adversaries.

有对手，这很正常，对吧？运动员就有对手。

Having opponents is, you know, sportsmen have opponents, right?

但把每个人都当成敌人，让世界各地的战争不断升级，你所说的似乎意味着，人们对什么是重要的认知必须发生根本性的转变。

But everyone being an enemy and having wars escalating around the world, it seems as if what you are saying is there has to be a fundamental shift in what people are considering important.

但战争一直存在，自从人类出现以来就一直存在。

But war has always existed, and it's existed as long as humans have.

这让我觉得，战争只是人类试图共存的一种方式。

So it makes me think that war is just part of humans trying to coexist.

我们所有根深蒂固的本能——对地位、自我、繁衍、资源和生存的追求——都会导致战争，就像它们也会导致经济衰退一样。

And all of the things that are hardwired into us, our search for status and ego and reproduction and resources and survival result in war, like they result in recessions.

所以我读了很多关于战争起源的资料。

So I read a lot about the origin of war.

这其实是一个有争议的话题。

Like, it's a debate.

没有人能确定，但这个问题确实被广泛讨论。

No one you know, but it is discussed.

我认为，人类学家对这个问题提出了最有趣、最深入的观点，我想和你分享一下：

And the anthropologists, I think, have the most interesting sort of thoughtful concepts around it, which I'll share with you, which is this.

因为，没错，从技术上讲，战争一直存在。

Because, yes, technically there has always been war.

其中一个争论是：战争是随着文明的出现而开始的，还是狩猎采集者就已经在打仗了？

And one of the debates is, you know, did war begin with civilization or were hunter gatherers warring?

但我觉得更有趣的是，上世纪60年代，人类学家研究了像亚马逊地区那些仍可接触的狩猎采集部落。

But more interesting to that, I think, is about the anthropologists who studied in the 60s the hunter gatherer tribes like in the Amazon when there were still access to them.

他们完全未受文明影响。

And they were unaffected by civilization at all.

他们可以观察这些部落如何看待敌人。

And they could look at how they perceived enemies.

从中产生了一个有趣的观点，让我想到乐观者与悲观者的区别，对吧？

And an interesting idea came out of that, which makes me think about optimists versus pessimists, right?

或者说，信任他人的人与多疑的人。

Or rather, those who trust versus those who are suspicious.

无论一个猎人在狩猎时处于狩猎采集部落的环境中，当他遇到另一个人时，显然这个人要么构成威胁，要么是能与之结盟对抗更大威胁的伙伴。

That no matter if a hunter is out hunting that's part of a hunter gatherer tribal environment, and he comes across another person, obviously that person is either threatening or that person is someone to team up with against the greater threat.

人类学家并不知道，为什么有些人会对这个人产生怀疑并可能杀死他，而另一些人则会把他视为盟友。

And the anthropologists do not know why it is that some people interpret this person with suspicion and then might kill him and others would interpret that person as a teammate.

所以，如果我们不知道人类的这种倾向是如何形成的，是遗传吗？

So if we don't know how human Is it genetics?

人们究竟是如何倾向于这两种立场之一的？

Like how do people either fall on one of those two sides?

但我们知道的是，人们可以学会用不同的方式思考。

But what we do know is that people can learn to think differently.

你在播客中跟一半的嘉宾讨论过这个话题。

You talk with half your guests on the podcast about this.

人们可以被训练，不是被洗脑，而是学会用不同的方式思考。

People can be trained, not propagandized, but people can learn to think differently.

所以，如果你像我一样是个充满希望的人，想要在即使是最黑暗的报道中看到积极的一面，因为这对我和我的家人来说是更好的选择，我会训练自己去寻找，可以说，那一线希望。

So if you're me who is a hopeful person and wants to see the positive side of even my dark reporting, because that's a better choice for me and for my family, I train myself to find, if you will, the silver lining.

或者，如果说这太过乐观了，那就去思考：我该如何看待向我走来的人，把他看作可能与我合作的人，甚至是一个对手，但不是必须除掉的敌人。

Or rather, if that's too Pollyanna ish, to find the way in which how do I look at the person coming at me as someone who could be on my team or even an opponent, but not an enemy that I would have to kill.

你刚才听到的是之前一集中最常被回放的片段。

What you just listened to was a most replayed moment from a previous episode.

如果你想收听完整的那一集，我已在下方提供了链接。

If you want to listen to that full episode, I've linked it down below.

请查看描述。

Check the description.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我最常思考的事情，尤其是在外出时，但即使坐在这里的《CEO日记》演播室里，也是我们所依赖的Wi-Fi和网络。

The thing I think about most, especially when I'm on the go, but also when I'm sat here in the Diary of a CEO studio is the Wi Fi and Internet that we have to work with.

事实上，每当我离开演播室拍摄时，一到地方，我做的第一件事就是打开一个应用，测试网速，看看信号有多强。

In fact, anytime I'm filming away from the studio, one of the first things I do is when I arrive, I open up an app and do a speed test to see how strong the signal is.

我发给团队关于不同地点Wi-Fi信号的截图数量，简直多得离谱。

And the number of screenshots I've sent to my team about WiFi signals at different locations is actually pretty crazy.

这对我来说非常重要，因为快速的Wi-Fi是一项巨大的竞争优势。

It matters that much me because it's such a competitive advantage to have fast Wi Fi.

因为任何一天，如果我正在和播客嘉宾录制数小时的素材，我通常需要让团队把文件传给我们在伦敦的剪辑团队进行后期制作。

Because on any given day, if I'm recording, let's say hours and hours of footage with a podcast guest, I then often have to have my team send that across to our London team who then do the edit.

所以，快速的Wi-Fi和网络不是锦上添花，而是必需品。

So fast WiFi and internet is not a nice to have.

这绝对是关乎业务成败的关键。

It is absolutely business mission critical.

因此，当我们为现在我所在的这个新洛杉矶演播室寻找最佳的网络服务提供商时，我们考察了所有选项，最终发现，提供最稳定连接且价格最低的是今天的赞助商Spectrum Business。

So when it came to finding the best provider who could supply internet and WiFi to our new LA studio, which I'm sat in right now, we looked at every single option and of all the providers, the one that came back with the steadiest connection as well as being the cheapest was today's sponsor Spectrum Business.

Spectrum Business 为各种规模的企业提供快速互联网、高级Wi-Fi、电话、电视和移动服务，确保持续连接。

Spectrum Business keeps businesses of all sizes connected with fast, internet, advanced Wi Fi, phone, TV and mobile services.

数百万企业主已经依赖Spectrum来维持其业务的连通性。

Millions of business owners already rely on Spectrum to keep their operations connected.

如果你想加入他们，请前往 spectrum.com/business 了解更多信息。

So if you want to join them head to spectrum.com/business to learn more.

网址是 spectrum.com/business。

That's spectrum.com/business.

适用限制条件，服务并非在所有地区均可提供。

Restrictions apply, service not available in all areas.

我每天都尽量服用我的补充剂，每天都吃维生素，但老实说，这并不是世界上最愉快的过程，这时候我们的赞助商Grooms就派上用场了。

I try and take my supplements every single day, try and take my vitamins every single day, but I have to be honest it's not the most pleasant process in the world and this is where our sponsor Grooms comes in.

它们是这些味道极佳、易于服用的维生素，含有多达多种成分。

They are these incredibly tasty, easy to consume vitamins that contain up to ingredients.

这些每日零食袋里装满了软糖，里面包含你的维生素、矿物质、适应原、抗氧化剂、超级蘑菇、肠道健康成分和益生元，方便你随身携带。

You've got your vitamins, your minerals, your adaptogens, antioxidants, super mushrooms, your gut health, prebiotics as well in these daily snack bags full of these gummies that are packed conveniently for you to take on the go.

一包就能同时改善你的肠道健康、能量、免疫力、恢复力、认知能力和皮肤美丽。

So one packet of these tackles your gut health, your energy immunity, your recovery, your cognition and beauty all in one go.

而且我必须说，它们营养丰富，含有全食物成分，味道非常好，这对于每天都要服用的人来说再好不过了。

They're also, I have to say, nutrient dense and contain whole foods and they taste like they taste so good, which is great if you have to take them every single day.

所以不妨亲自试试，使用代码 diary@groons.co 可享受最高52%的折扣。

So give them a try yourself and you can get up to 52% off with code diary@groons.co.

网址是 gruns.co。

That's gruns.co.