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我这一辈子一直以为,燃烧脂肪的方式就是跑步。
I've definitely grown up my whole life thinking that the way that you burn fat is by running.
我的意思是,大多数人都是这么想的。
I mean, this is what most people think.
对吧?
Right?
他们觉得,如果你想减掉这里的脂肪,比如腹部脂肪?
They think, you wanna burn fat around here, the belly fat?
最好的办法就是去跑步。
The best way to do is go for a run.
很多人试了之后效果甚微,反而对自己特别苛责。
And a lot of people have very little luck with that and end up beating themselves up.
所以,为了结束这个话题,我想听听你的看法。
So to close off on this conversation, I'd like to hear your take on that.
你需要以比大多数人更全面的视角来看待减脂。
You need to think about fat loss in a broader approach than most people give it to.
也就是说,当你提到减脂时,我们得具体一点。
Which is to say, when you say fat loss, let's get specific.
我们真正指的是减掉脂肪,同时最好能保持肌肉。
What we're meaning is we're losing fat, and ideally, we're preserving muscle.
这通常才是我们真正想要的。
That's what that's what we typically want.
明白吗?
Okay?
我们还希望减掉的脂肪能尽可能长时间地保持住。
We're also talking about losing fat so that it stays off as long as possible.
这些含义都隐含在‘减脂’这个词里,但常常被忽视。
Those are baked in to that phrase, but oftentimes forgotten.
因此,我给你的建议是基于这两个前提。
So the advice I'm gonna give you is with those two assumptions in mind.
你要尽量保持最多的瘦体重,并且让这段旅程取得成功,而不是一次又一次地重复。
You're trying to keep as much lean mass as you can, and you're trying to make this a successful journey and not something you have to repeat again time and Like
嘿,嘿。
yo yo.
完全正确。
Totally.
对吧?
Right?
溜溜球式节食。
Yo yo dieting.
事实上,我发表过的被引用最多的论文之一就是关于溜溜球式节食的。
In fact, one of the more probably the highest most cited paper I've ever published was on yo yo dieting.
就是一篇关于这个主题的综述文章。
Like, a review article on that.
所以你可以去读一读。
So you can you can go read that.
很多人都喜欢这篇论文。
People love that paper.
我只是个合著者。
I was just a co author.
那篇论文是杰克逊写的。
Jackson wrote that paper.
所以功劳应该归杰克逊。
So credit goes to Jackson for that.
但要确保你留意,比如说,记住那些参数。
But making sure you're paying attention to say, those parameters in mind.
我该如何减肥?
How do I lose weight?
你可以查阅各种荟萃分析和综述文章,你会发现长期成功减重(这里减重指的是减脂)的首要预测因素始终是依从性。
You can look across meta analyses and review articles, and you will see the number one predictor of long term successful weight loss, and by weight loss, mean fat loss, is always adherence.
这包括对你锻炼计划的坚持,以及对你营养计划的坚持。
It's adherence to your workout program and it's adherence to your nutrition program.
所以第一步,在我们担心任何饮食改变之前,在我们开始争论哪种锻炼方法最好之前,在我们真正深入到像基因检测这类事情之前——你其实是在这里浪费时间。
So step number one, before we worry about any change in diet, before we start arguing about which method of exercise is best, before we start really going way down the line to things like genetic testing, like you're really wasting your time here.
而很多这类事情,尤其是当你没有关注什么能让你长期坚持时。
And a lot of that stuff, especially if you're not paying attention to what's gonna make you adhere the longest amount of time.
事实上,如果你就停在这里,对大多数人来说就已经足够了。
In fact, if you just stop right there, that's enough for most people.
你能否让自己在营养方式上感到富足?
Can you put yourself in a position where you're able to feel abundant with your nutrition approach?
注意,我尽量不说‘节食’这个词。
And notice I'm I'm trying not to say diet here.
对吧?
Right?
应该说是营养方式。
Should be nutritional approach.
你需要在生活与灵活性之间取得平衡,同时也要弄清楚什么会触发你——也许你根本没有触发点,也许你可以更灵活,也许你需要更严格,所有这些因素都要考虑进去。
You have a balance between living life and flexibility, but then also figuring out what triggers you and maybe you don't have a trigger, maybe you can be more flexible, maybe you need more stringent, like all the things that go into it.
你得找到一个适合自己的系统。
You gotta figure out a system.
所以人们普遍不会长期坚持节食。
So you're not people will not be on a diet very long collectively.
对吧?
Right?
平均来看,节食恰恰因为这些原因并不有效。
On average, diets don't work, quote, unquote, for those exact reasons.
对吧?
Right?
你总得想办法制造热量赤字。
You gotta get to a caloric deficit somehow.
但你必须以一种让你依然感到快乐的方式做到这一点,
But you gotta do that in a way where you still are happy and
可持续的。
Sustainable.
完全正确。
Totally.
对吧?
Right?
而且你仍然感到有精力。
And you still feel energy.
而且你就在那里,这对你有效。
And you're you're there and that it's working for you.
对吧?
Right?
这对每个人的生理状况都不同。
And that's different for every physiology.
好的。
Okay.
太好了。
Great.
然后还得配合锻炼体系,也是同样的道理。
And then gotta meet the exercise system, the same thing.
对吧?
Right?
如果你讨厌跑步,那你完全没必要跑一步也能减掉大量体重。
If you hate running, there's no reason you don't have to run a step to lose a ton of weight.
如果你喜欢跑步,那你就不应该跑步。
If you love running, you shouldn't run.
如果你讨厌举重,没问题。
If you hate lifting weight, fine.
只要我们关心的是长期保持瘦体重和减脂,我可以适应你提供的任何参数。
I can work with any parameter you give me if all we're concerned about is preserving lean muscle mass and losing fat over the long term.
这才是真正我们需要最重视的。
That's really what we have to to consider the most.
明白吗?
Okay?
那么在这一点上,这是否意味着所有的训练和营养计划都是一样的?
Now within that, does that mean every training and nutrition program is the same?
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
完全不是。
Not at all.
存在根本性的差异。
There are fundamental differences.
这里有你需要思考的问题。
Here's the problem to think about.
如果我说,嘿,你这辈子都要做同样的训练计划。
If I said, hey, you're gonna do the same training program the rest of your life.
你可能会说,哇。
You'd probably be like, woah.
但如果我告诉你,在营养方面,人们会说:‘当然了,没错。’
But if I told you that with nutrition, people are like, well, yeah, of course.
好像有什么神奇的饮食法似的,其实并不是。
Like there's magic diets that do like, no.
生酮饮食,不错。
Keto, great.
地中海饮食,不错。
Meditraining, great.
高碳水饮食,不错。
High carb, great.
不错。
Great.
不错。
Great.
你都可以尝试。
You can do them all.
它们对你来说都可能有效。
They can all work for you.
有些人摄入麸质会有帮助。
Some people taking on gluten helps.
有些人觉得很好。
Some people go, great.
很好。
Great.
很好。
Great.
当然。
Sure.
所有这些都可能实现。
All of it is possible.
对吧?
Right?
我们来自非常不同的背景。
We come from very different backgrounds.
如果你看一下任何研究,比如基因检测中一个非常有趣的点。
If you look at any of the research, for example, like a a really interesting point on genetic testing.
如果你在基因检测中不考虑遗传背景,那么像营养学、精准营养这类的基因检测就完全毫无价值。
If you're not taking account genetic background on that, genetic testing for things like nutrition, precision nutrition, is entirely worthless.
因为我们看到一些经典标志物,与碳水化合物利用效率、脂肪利用效率或体成分相关,这些标志物在欧洲白人中可能预测相当比例的变异,但如果你把这些完全相同的标志物应用到西非或东非人群身上,这些变异就会趋近于零。
Because we see classic markers that are associated with, say, more effective carbohydrate utilization, or fat utilization, or or body composition, and they might predict a decent percentage of variants in European Caucasians, you apply those exact same things to West African or East African, and those variants go to zero.
人们在谈论基因检测时,常常忘记这一点。
People forget that part when they start talking genetic testing.
这些检测并未在所有种族背景下得到验证。
They have not been validated across all ethnic backgrounds.
那些经过验证的检测显示,其预测效力范围从大约40%的变异到零不等。
The ones that have have shown they range from, like, 40% variants to zero.
所以,你真的远远领先于当前的潮流,关注那些根本无关紧要的东西。
So, like, really like, you're way, way, way ahead of the cart here, paying attention to things that just do not matter.
我们得让你用上一个有效的系统。
We got to get you on a system that works.
好的。
Okay.
太好了。
Great.
对一些人来说,那可能更偏向营养调整。
For some people, that might be more nutritionally based.
明白吗?
Alright?
通过摄入足够多的蛋白质并控制总热量,你可以很好地减脂并保持肌肉质量。
You can lose and preserve muscle mass really well by just going decently high on protein and then regulating your calories.
我之前给你的例子。
Example I gave you earlier.
你想要更多碳水、更少脂肪吗?
You want to go more carbs, less fat?
很好。
Great.
你想反其道而行之吗?
You want do the opposite?
比如,我们可以调整这些因素。
Like, we can play those levers.
没问题。
No problem.
好的。
Alright.
但你的问题是什么?
What's your problem, though?
哦,我老是想吃碳水化合物。
Oh, I struggle with car cravings.
好的。
Okay.
很好。
Great.
哦,我很难忍受饥饿感。
Oh, I struggle with hunger pangs.
好的。
Okay.
很好。
Great.
我很难接受‘还好’这种状态。
I struggle with okay.
那么,我们将根据更多这样的因素、更多那样的因素来做决定,比如你的痛点在哪里?
Well, then we're gonna make those decisions based on more of this, more of that based on, like, where is your pain point?
你的问题是什么?
What's your problem?
我很难接受‘还好’这个说法。
I struggle with the okay.
很好。
Great.
现在我们必须进行个性化了。
I have to now we're personalizing.
我们现在根据那些比之前提到的其他因素重要几个数量级的事情来进行个体化调整。
Now we're individualizing it based on things that are gonna matter, orders of magnitude more than other things that I've just talked about.
对吧?
Right?
那些东西会更重要。
That stuff will trump it.
锻炼也是同样的道理。
Exercise is the same thing.
也许你讨厌锻炼。
Maybe you you hate exercise.
好的。
Okay.
很好。
Great.
也许我们可以让你每天走几次,大部分的减脂通过饮食来实现。
Maybe we can get you to walk a few times a day, and we'll get most of our fat loss through our nutrition.
也可能正好相反。
Maybe the opposite.
你喜欢锻炼,但天啊,你就是难以控制饮食或避免吃某些东西。
You love training, but, poof, man, you just struggle to eat whatever or not eat something.
好的。
Alright.
很好。
Great.
也许我们会更多地依靠意志力来玩这个游戏。
Maybe we'll play the game more with, you know, willpower.
我们会加快锻炼的节奏。
We'll push the pace on exercise.
高强度,没问题。
High intensity, fine.
低强度,也没问题。
Low intensity, fine.
力量训练,很好。
Weights, great.
有氧运动,很好。
Cardios, great.
冲浪,很好。
Surfing, great.
呃,我不在乎什么心率区间六区之类的。
Like, I I don't zone six tone I don't care.
所有这些都可以做到。
All of it can be done.
行吧?
K?
对于大多数人来说,这两件事的一些基础性原则通常是保持一致的:你需要确保蛋白质摄入充足,因为蛋白质不足很难维持肌肉质量,尤其是在热量摄入不足的情况下。
Some of the foundational things that tend to be consistent for those two things on most people is you need to make sure protein is adequate, hard to maintain muscle mass with lower protein, especially if we're going hypocaloric.
所以要保持高蛋白摄入。
So keep protein high.
你需要进行一些力量训练,每周至少一次,原因完全相同;同时也要做些能消耗大量热量的运动,无论是长时间、高强度的有氧运动,总之,你只需要做到这些就够了。
You want to do something revolving strength training, at least once a week, for the same exact reasons, something that makes you burn a lot of calories, long duration, high intensity either way, that's all you really have to do.
如果你能持续坚持这些做法,时间久了,你一定会达到目标。
If you can do that stuff consistently, over time, you're gonna get there.
你会过得很好。
You're gonna be just fine.
我们看到的问题通常出现在那些让自己陷入匮乏状态的人身上。
Where we see problems are people that put themselves in a position of scarcity.
对于不了解这个词的人,你所说的匮乏是指什么?
What do you mean by scarcity for anyone that doesn't know that?
就是让自己缺乏某些东西。
Depriving themselves of something.
你觉得自己永远无法做想做的事。
You feel like you're never get to do the thing you wanna do.
这是心理问题。
Psycho and this is a psychological thing.
对吧?
Right?
完全对。
Totally.
这会导致反弹效应。
Which causes the yo yo effect.
这会导致长期坚持和一致性的问题。
Which causes the the problem of consistency and adherence over time.
对吧?
Right?
所以要确保做到这一点。
So making sure you do that.
我个人有一些自己常做的标准练习。
I personally have some go to standards I like to do.
我很乐意分享,我通常会保持无氧力量训练、高强度心率训练和更稳定、长时间的有氧训练之间的良好平衡。
I'll happily share that with I tend to like to have a decent balance between kind of our anaerobic strength training, high heart rate stuff, and our, more steady state longer duration stuff.
所以如果一个人每周能锻炼三次,我可能会安排一次长时间的运动。
So if someone's gonna be able to work out three times per week, I'm probably doing one thing where we're going long duration.
称之为徒步吧。
Call it a hike.
称之为游泳吧。
Call it a swim.
称之为跑步吧。
Call it a run.
不管做什么都可以。
Whatever we can do.
另外两天,我可能会结合力量训练,然后以一些高强度心率运动收尾。
And then the other two days, I'm probably doing a combination of lifting and then probably finishing with some high heart rate thing.
对吧?
Right?
所以我们先做一些力量和肌肉肥大训练,然后进行循环训练、有氧单车或者冲刺训练,或者找一些特别特别累的运动让你参与进来。
So we'll do like a little bit of strength and hypertrophy muscle growth work, and then we'll do a circuit or an aerosol bike or some sprints or like what what can we get you into that's like really really hard.
如果我能让你在一个和其他人一起锻炼的环境中运动,我特别喜欢这样。
If I can get you in an environment where you're working out with some other human, I love that.
你为什么先做力量训练,然后再做?
Is there any reason why you do the strength first and then
当然。
Absolutely.
这是个很好的问题。
That's a great question.
如果你在耐力训练之前做力量训练,力量训练不会影响你的耐力。
If you do strength training before endurance work, your strength training will not compromise your endurance.
事实上,有时还会增强耐力。
In fact, sometimes it exacerbates it.
如果你先做耐力训练,你会更疲劳,力量也会下降,从而导致力量训练的表现变差。
If you do your endurance first, you're gonna be more fatigued, and you're gonna lose strength, and so you'll have worse performance in your strength training.
我们还没谈到的最重要的事情是什么?
What's the most important thing we haven't spoken about?
你知道吗,如果从你所知道的所有内容中再加一项,能让34岁的单身母亲珍妮弗,或者伦敦的黑色出租车司机戴夫——这些普通人——受益的话,那会是什么?
You know, if there was one more thing you could add of all the things you know that would allow Jennifer, who's a 34 year old single mother, or Dave, who's a black cab driver in London, the average person.
我认为人类健康领域即将出现的变化令人兴奋。
I think it is exciting what's coming in the world of human health.
我认为让人们了解这些信息很有帮助,因为我们面临的许多挑战只会变得更严重。
And I think it's helpful for people to know that stuff because a lot of the challenges we're facing are gonna get worse.
我们很快就能实现一些事情。
We have things that are going to be possible pretty soon.
我所说的这种精准运动、精准营养的理念。
Kind of the stuff I'm talking about, this idea of precision exercise, precision nutrition.
但目前这些内容对大多数人来说还无法获得,因为太昂贵了,等等。
It's not really available to many people, too expensive, etcetera.
我们很快就会突破这些障碍。
We're gonna cross those barriers pretty soon.
我们目前正在做一个名为‘人体数字孪生’的项目。
We are working on a project right now called the human digital twin.
这结合了我几家公司的技术。
So this is a combination of, you know, a couple of my companies.
包括睡眠公司Absolute Rest、血液检测公司Vitality Blueprint、Springbok,还有另一家公司Axiophores,他们在你的鞋子里装了四个传感器,可以监测步态的早期变化——也就是你走路的方式,这可能(尚需研究)成为帕金森病或神经系统疾病的早期征兆。
So the sleep company, Absolute Rest, our blood work company, Vitality Blueprint, Springbok, there's another company called Axiophores that actually has four sensors in your shoe, and we can see early changes potentially in gait, So how you're walking, which could potentially and research is needed here, but potentially be early signs of Parkinson's development, neurological disorders.
我们会在症状出现之前,就从步态中发现这些迹象。
So we'll see this in gait before we'll see this in symptoms.
参与这一整套系统的公司,我们可以把这些数据全部收集起来,现在正在实际操作,整合成所谓的数字孪生体。
Companies that are involved in this entire thing, we can take all those data, we're actually doing this right now, put them together and make what's called the digital twin.
这使我们能够构建你的生理模型。
This allows us to make your physiology.
因此,从活力的角度来看,我们掌握了你的全部血液检测数据和分子生物标志物。
And so from our perspective of vitality, we've got all your blood work and molecular biomarkers.
Absolute Rest,我们掌握了你的睡眠数据。
Absolute rest, we've your sleep.
我们掌握了你的运动模式。
We've got your movement patterns.
我们还可以与另一家公司合作,观察你的身体动作和相关行为。
We can actually work with another company to watch you physically move and do that stuff.
我们可以将你的生理数据上传。
We can take your physiology and upload it.
然后,我们可以对营养、训练、补充剂、药物、运动、日间模式、阳光、水分等所有因素进行无限组合的模拟,快速找出针对你想要达成的任何目标,你最理想的应对方式。
Then from there, we can run endless simulations of combinations of nutrition and training and supplementation, medicine, movement, daytime patterns, sunlight, water, all those things, and figure out really quickly how you're going to respond the best for whatever outcome we want.
目前这还完全不成熟。
It's not ready at all right now.
但我们现在实际上正在运行它。
But we're actually, again, running it right now.
我们大概在下周就能完成第一批受试者的数据。
We'll have our first cohort done probably in the next week or so.
是的
Yeah.
真的,真的很快了。
Really, really soon.
我不知道这个模型第一次运行时表现会怎么样。
I don't know how well the model's gonna be the first time through it.
我不知道我们的团队会不会是最擅长这个的。
I don't know if our group's going be the best at it.
这并不重要。
It doesn't matter.
但很明显,这个世界有能力实现这一点。
But this is clearly going to be something the world is capable of.
随着我们越来越擅长成为人体传感器,并能将这些数据整合进来,我们将能够部署类似的东西,并说:嘿,这个最有可能适合你。
As we get better at being human sensors and we can bring those data in, we're going to be able to deploy things like this and say, hey, yo, This is most likely to work for you.
数字孪生技术已经被用于心脏等领域。
The digital twin is already being used for, like, the heart.
它已经就位了。
It's in place.
我们也有肾脏的数字孪生。
We have the digital twin of the the kidneys is is as well.
肺部的数字孪生很快就会推出。
The lungs are coming soon.
心脏的数字孪生也很快就会推出。
The heart is coming pretty soon.
有很多团队在做这件事。
There's lots of groups.
我没有参与这些项目中的任何一个,但它们正在陆续上线。
I'm I'm not involved in any of those projects, but that's it's coming onboard.
所以,我们不再需要猜测,最重要的是,可以去尝试。
So the ability to not have to guess anymore, and most importantly, try.
我试了六个星期。
I tried this for six weeks.
没成功。
It didn't work.
我试过这个,但那会很快消失的。
I tried this for that's gonna go away really fast.
太好了。
Great.
你仍然得去做所有的工作。
You still have to go do all the work.
这项技术不会为你奏效。
The technology won't work out for you.
嗯,我们也有一些能实现这个功能的东西。
Well, we we have some stuff that'll do that too.
不过,成本是多少呢?
What's the cost, though?
就像你刚才说的那些,你知道我的意思吗?
Like, when you were saying all of that, I go do know what I mean?
在整个人类历史中,我们始终追求一个,或许可以说是两个核心目标。
We spent the entire length of human history with one, maybe arguably two singular goals.
其中一个核心目标是减轻压力。
One of them at the core was stress reduction.
这正是我们所追求的。
That was what we're after.
对吧?
Right?
你建立社群,为了更安全。
You create communities, so you're safer.
你建造家园,为了更好的环境;你发展农业,为了食物。
You create homes so you're environmental, you create agriculture so our food.
我们都希望减轻压力这件事。
And we all wanted to reduce the stress thing.
对吧?
Right?
我们当时没有这么称呼它,但那正是它的本质。
We didn't call that, but that's what it was.
然后到了2000年左右,我们意识到:天哪,糟了。
And then we got to the year 2000 or so, and we realized, oh, fuck.
也许我们追求的目标错了。
Maybe that was the wrong target.
我在你家的书架上看到一本叫《舒适危机》的书。
I saw in your bookshelf at home, there's a book called The Comfort Crisis.
是的。
Oh, yeah.
你刚才说那番话的时候,我脑子里突然闪过了这本书。
And that just flashed in front of me as you were saying that.
对。
Yeah.
致敬一下。
Shout out.
迈克尔,这是一本很棒的书。
Michael, it's it's a great book.
当宇航员从国际空间站返回,或者我们要让人登陆火星时,这不仅是火箭技术的问题,更是一个更大的生理学问题。
When we have astronauts come back from the International Space Station, getting people to live on Mars, it's a bit of a rocket problem, but it's a bigger physiology problem.
这个HTT项目中,马万是我们合作的人之一,还有科迪·伯克哈特,他是NASA人体工学部门的负责人。
And the this HTT project, Marwan is part of the people we're working with is Cody Burkhardt, runs human works at NASA.
我们需要弄清楚这一点:嘿。
Figuring out that line of going, hey.
你并不想释放压力。
You don't want to release stress.
如果你这么做了,比如当我们把人送入太空时,因为没有重力,你的生理机能会迅速衰退。
If you do, like what happens when we send people up to space because there's no gravity, your physiology tanks really quickly.
对吧?
Right?
他们返回地球后,宇航员常常好几天都无法正常行走。
They come back oftentimes, astronauts come back and they're like, they can't physically walk for a few days.
对吧?
Right?
因为在那种情况下,压力的其他方面现在也大幅上升了。
Because in that case, that aspect now other aspects of stress are way up.
我们已经失去了一些作为人类的核心准则,而我们还没有为这做好准备。
We've lost some of the core tenants that it means to be human, and we are not ready for that.
我们完全没准备好听到这样的话:哦,是的。
We are not ready at all to be able to be told, oh, yeah.
去做这个扫描,然后这里就是你一生中必须经历的完整结果。
Run this scan, and here's the exact culmination of life you need to run.
这还不包括其中涉及的伦理问题。
Not even counting the ethics behind on that.
仅基因检测本身的伦理问题就非常有趣,至少可以说如此。
Like, the ethics of genetic testing alone are really, really interesting to say the least.
对于做这样的事情,我们还没有认真思考过这些伦理问题。
The ethics of doing something like that, we have not thought through this stuff.
对吧?
Right?
而且 collectively,我们。
And collectively, we.
我们的世界中,有比单纯直接答案更多的东西。
There is more in our world than our human experience than just straight answers.
对吧?
Right?
这正是我们这段旅程的美妙之处之一。
This is one of the beauties of this ride we get to take.
我不知道我们是否有好的答案。
I don't know if we have good answers.
我认为我们显然已经表明,以前我们并不擅长提出这些问题。
I think we've clearly shown we're not very good at asking those questions before.
从未。
Never.
因为短期的激励实在太诱人了。
Because the incentives in the short term is so tempting.
我们现在正看到人工智能领域出现这种情况。
We're seeing this with AI at the moment.
这真的太诱人了。
It's just so tempting.
是的。
Yeah.
然后我们等到二十年后才看到结果,但那时已经太晚了。
And then we figure we get the results back in twenty years, and by then it's just too late.
我的意思是,看看我们当前的健康状况。
I mean, look at the current health position that we're in.
对吧?
Right?
我们一直试图尽可能减少各种压力源,结果——嘿,这招还真管用。
We went after that entire idea of minimizing as many stressors as we possibly could, and, uh-oh, we it worked.
是的。
Yeah.
哎呀。
Oops.
现在我们不得不回头,做一件很奇怪的事:重新把压力引入我们的生活。
Now we have to go back and do this weird thing where we re engineer stress back into our lives.
当你从自然状态中移除某些东西时,必须非常谨慎和审慎。
You have to be very careful and judicious when you pull things out of a natural state.
我在这里用词是非常讲究的。
I'm being very choosy with my words there.
如果你不主动引导压力,就会让别的东西来主导它。
If you're not directing stress, you're letting something else direct that.
压力总会以某种方式出现,这意味着适应也会随之而来。
That stress is still coming one way or the other, which means adaptation is coming.
所以,你可以有意识地将这艘船指向某个方向,也可以蒙上眼睛,假装它根本不存在,最终却发现船已经被带到了别的地方。
So you can be intentional and point that ship in one direction, or you can cover your eyes and think it's not happening at all and realize you're getting pointed somewhere else.
至少要有这种认知更好。
It's better to at least have the acknowledgment.
这就是为什么‘意识’这个词出现在我这本书的标题中。
This is why the word consciousness is in the title of of my book.
这是这个过程的一部分。
It's this is part of the process.
对吧?
Right?
你可以意识到它,也可以不意识到。
You can be aware of it or you cannot.
从那里开始,你可以选择任何你想做的。
From there, you can choose whatever you want.
这完全由你决定,就是这样。
That's entirely up to you and all that.
我只是希望人们意识到,你总是在以某种方式做出选择。
I just want people to realize you're making a choice one way or the other.
所以当你把技术引入这个情境时,人工智能在很多方面都是一个极其具有挑战性的问题。
So when you involve technology into the picture, AI is is another really, really challenging thing in a lot of ways.
我再重申一遍,我们已经看到这种情况发生过,我们知道答案是:情况会变得更糟,因为我们不会立刻做出很好的选择。
And I'll reiterate, we've seen this already play out, and we know the answer is this gets worse in terms of we're not gonna make very good choices right away.
这最终会如何体现出来呢?
How does that manifest itself in the end?
我不知道。
I don't know.
没人知道。
Nobody knows.
但到目前为止,我们在做这个决定上并不擅长。
But to date, we're not particularly good at making that decision.
因此,这里会有很多后果。
So there's lots of consequences there.
我认为我们在这里最后要说的一点是,如果你仔细分析一下的话。
I think that we have there the la one last thing I'll say on this is if if you break down okay.
我们将其结构化为四个部分。
Way that we structure it is there's four pieces.
明白吗?
Okay?
为了在表现和健康方面取得更好的成果,你首先需要进行评估。
In order for you to have more success at your performance and health, you, number one, have to have assessment.
在获得所有这些数据后,进入第二步,即你需要进行量化。
Once you have all this data, have go to step number two, which is then you have to qualify.
好、坏、极佳、史上最差、史上最佳。
Good, bad, great, worst ever, best in world history.
明白吗?
Okay?
我们在这一点上遇到困难。
We're struggling on that.
我们不知道健康的状态是什么样子。
We don't know what healthy looks like.
我知道临床缺乏维生素D导致的佝偻病是什么样子。
I know what clinically deficient rickets looks like.
我知道肥胖和二型糖尿病是什么样子,我们了解疾病。
I know what obesity and type two diabetes, and we know disease.
我们不知道什么是‘好’和‘更好’的区别。
We don't know what good versus great means.
我没有可以调用的数据库。
There are no databases I can pull from.
没有任何指标让我能说,一个出色的垂直跳跃成绩应该是多少?
There is no metric I can look at and say, what what is a great comp what's a great vertical jump number?
一个人到了四十多岁,需要跳多高才算健康?
What does somebody need to be able to jump in their forties to be healthy?
我们根本不知道这些数据,而且我也不知道不同族群之间的差异。
Like, we don't know these things, and I don't know it by ethnicity.
我之前已经提到过这一点。
And I and I mentioned that before.
这是一个关键因素,因为这显然不同。
That's a critical component because this is clearly different.
对吧?
Right?
在基础血液化学指标中,东南亚人与北欧人之间有些指标没有差异,有些则存在差异。
There are some markers in basic blood chemistry that are not different in Southeast Asians or that are different in Southeast Asians versus Northern Europeans.
比如,这些内容我们还没有完全弄清楚。
Like, we don't have that fully fleshed out.
如果我们有的话,那也只是针对疾病指标。
And we if we do, it's for disease markers.
我们并没有这些数据。
We don't have that.
所以我都不知道自己在评判什么。
So I don't even know what I'm judging.
好的。
Okay.
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现在进行评估。
Now assessment.
很好。
Great.
随着世界整体越来越不健康,我们从哪里获取这些超级健康人群的数据库呢?
Where are we gonna get these databases as super healthy people as the world continues to get less healthy?
我正在迅速失去可抽取的人群。
I'm losing my population to pull from really, really quickly.
明白吗?
Okay?
接下来的一部分是,好吧。
Then the next piece is, okay.
很好。
Great.
你告诉我这个指标应该在这里。
You've told me that this marker should be here.
选择你的指标,随便你选哪个。
Pick your marker, whatever you want.
我该怎么把它放到那里?
How do I get it there?
这正是我们所面临的困境。
And that's really where we're struggling.
所以第二个问题是我说的‘北极星’,我们根本没有方向。
So the second problem is what I call Polaris, like we have no north star.
我们不知道这件事该往哪里走。
We don't know where this thing should go.
第三个问题是,好吧,我该怎么到达那里?
The third one is, okay, how do I get there?
干预措施是什么?
What is the intervention?
具体该做什么?
What is the thing?
我认为,在我的领域里,像私人教练、物理治疗师、运动训练师、护士这样的人,不仅会保持价值,还会进一步提升自己的价值。
That's where I actually think people in my field are going to not only maintain, but increase their value, such as like personal coaches, physical therapists, athletic trainers, people that are gonna nurses.
因为即使有AI可以介入并运行某些程序,说:很好。
Because you might have an AI that can come in and and run something and say, great.
你的数据在这里,我们的指标显示你应该达到这个水平,然后你应该去做X。
Your numbers are here, and our metrics say you should be here, and then you should go do x.
我希望有人能陪在我身边。
I want somebody there with me.
我希望有一个真人来引导我完成X。
I want a human taking me through x.
这样会让人感觉更好,因为我们并不确定。
That's gonna feel better because we don't know.
关于这一点,几乎没有任何数据。
There's almost no data on, okay.
很好。
Great.
那么,针对这个指标,最佳的训练方式是什么?
Well, what is the optimal training for that marker?
最佳的营养方案是什么?
What is the optimal nutrition?
或者这实际上是非常有限的。
Or that is really, really limited.
所以我们必须依赖专家。
So we have to rely on expert.
我们必须依赖那些既了解证据基础、又拥有实践经验的人。
We have to rely on people that go, I know the evidence base, but then also my experience.
我是这样考虑这个问题的。
I'm thinking about this this way.
如果你是一名NFL四分卫,前交叉韧带撕裂了,我们对你做了所有这些检测,你还是会回来说,哦,太好了。
If you were an NFL quarterback and you tore your ACL, and we ran all that stuff on you, you would still come back and go, oh, great.
那边有一位教练,亲自指导过15名受伤的NFL首发四分卫完成前交叉韧带康复。
There's a coach over there who's actually run people through ACL recoveries on 15 starting NFL quarterbacks.
那这得花多少钱?
Like, what's it gonna cost?
你是在雇用那个人。
You're hiring that person.
对吧?
Right?
因为你以前做过。
Because, like, you've done it before.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
到了那个阶段,预算根本不是问题,因为那个人确实做过,而且他会亲自在场。
It like, the budget doesn't matter at that point because the person's actually done it, and they will be there.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
我真的觉得,由于这一点,我们的领域价值将会提升。
I really feel like our field is gonna increase in the value because of that.
他们可能会说,好吧。
They're gonna wanna say, okay.
太棒了。
Awesome.
这些数据已经出来了。
The numbers came out on this.
今年AI告诉了我这个。
The AI told me this this year.
你以前做过。
You've done it before.
是吗?
Yeah?
做过很多次吗?
Done a lot?
很好。
Great.
我最信任你。
I trust you the most.
我希望你在我身边。
I want you by my side.
我想要这种陪伴。
I want that companionship.
随着我们与他人之间的联系越来越少,根据我所在领域的主观看法,这是一个人们渴望有人陪伴的好地方。
As we lose more and more connection to other people, this is my biased opinion in my field that, like, this is a great place where people want someone there.
在线教练很棒。
Online coaching is great.
那也没问题。
That's fine and all that.
但你已经看到一种高端趋势出现了,比如,我想聘请一位面对面的教练。
But you're seeing actually already a premium coming on like, you know, I want to hire an in person trainer.
你能给我找这样一个人吗?
Can you give me that person?
之前一度相反的热潮,现在已经开始逆转,人们更愿意为了各种原因亲自找人陪伴。
Where like the boom was the opposite for a while, and now it's already swinging back where people would rather have somebody there in person for all those reasons.
所以,我认为这是一个非常有趣的挑战,但这就是你应该思考的方式。
So that is, I think, an incredibly interesting challenge, but that's that's the way to think about it.
最上面的那个会变得更好,但还有很多问题。
That top one's gonna get better, lots of problems.
但我们是在和什么做比较?然后我们该怎么做?
But what are we comparing against, and then what do we do about it?
这才是真正的难点。
That's gonna be the real trick.
你刚才听到的是之前一集中最常被回放的片段。
What you just listened to was a most replayed moment from a previous episode.
如果你想收听完整的一集,我在下方提供了链接。
If you wanna listen to that full episode, I've linked it down below.
请查看描述。
Check the description.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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