最多人分享的时刻：如何“缓慢”致富——斯科特·加洛韦

我收到最多的邮件，是来自年轻人寻求建议，还有母亲们为儿子们寻求指导。

The email I get most is from young men looking for guidance and mothers looking for guidance for their for their sons.

第二多的邮件是这样的。

The second most frequent email is the following.

现在投资英伟达还来得及吗？

Is it too late to invest in NVIDIA?

说实话，我不知道。

And the honest answer is I don't know.

我能想象一种情况，它的股价会跌掉八成。

I can imagine a scenario where it gets cut by 80%.

我也能想象另一种情况，它的股价会涨到三倍。

I can imagine a scenario where it triples.

所以你应该这么做。

So this is what you do.

你该投资标普500指数基金，因为大约20%的资金会流向七巨头，它们占了标普500总市值的两成左右。

You invest in SPY because about 20% on the dollar will go into the magnificent seven because they're about 20% of the market cap of the S and P.

SPY其实是一篮子不同的股票。

SPY is, again, a basket of different stocks.

它是一个跟踪标普500指数的指数基金。

It's it's a index fund that mimics the S and P.

标普500里头一共有500家公司。

So there are 500 companies in the S and P.

英伟达大概占标普500总市值的3%到5%。

NVIDIA is probably three or 5% of the total value of the S and P.

所以你每投一美元，大概有五美分会进英伟达。

So $05 on your dollar goes into Nvidia.

对吧？

Right?

大约20%，是这个数吗？

About 20%, is that right?

科技股里头那七个巨头，加起来大概占24%到25%。

24%, 25% is the Magnificent Seven, the tech companies we talk about.

你每花一美元，就有两分五厘会投到它们身上。

Dollars $0.02 5 on your dollar will go to them.

假设这些公司股价翻倍。

So assume those companies double.

那当然很好。

Great.

你也能跟着受益。

You participate.

但如果另外四百九十三家公司终于迎来转机，而它们的股价跌了一半，你还是没事。

But assume the other four ninety three companies finally get their time in the sun and those companies go down a half, you're still fine.

你依然没问题。

You're still fine.

你根本没必要在一堆股票里找那根针，也不用再相信那种典型的美式想法——以为自己能猜中市场。

Again, you don't need to find the needle in the haystack and stop believing in a very American way that you can figure it out.

我认识金融界最聪明的人。

I know the brightest people in finance.

我最后的结论是，他们全都没个准主意。

And what the my net conclusion is that none of them have any fucking idea.

有些人可能稍微懂那么一点。

Some have a little bit more of an idea.

但如果你看看整个另类投资行业——对冲基金、私募股权基金、共同基金，还有CNBC上那些人，把他们所有人的收益加在一起，扣除费用后，还跑不赢标普500。

But if you look at the entire alternative investments industry, hedge funds, private equity funds, mutual funds, anyone on CNBC, if you took all of their returns in aggregate, they're less than the S and P by the amount of their fees.

现代经济里最大的骗局之一，就是相信那些看起来老气横秋、一脸不爽、穿着背带裤、哈佛毕业的人，比你更懂市场。

It's one of the greatest grifts in the modern economy is believing that some guy who looks old and unhappy and has suspenders and went to Harvard knows more about the markets than you.

你只需要懂分散投资，对吧？

All you need to know is diversification, right?

买SPY，趁早开始存钱。

SPY, start saving young.

再好的建议就是，如果可能的话，逼自己存钱。

And then the next best piece of advice is if you can, you can, force savings.

我们98%的人都会把到手的钱花得一干二净。

98% of us will spend everything we get our hands on.

很难做到把眼前的钱拿去投资，而不是花掉。

It is very hard to have the discipline to take money that is within your grasp and invest it.

强制储蓄计划。

Force savings plan.

问问公司有没有利润分享、个人退休账户或者罗斯账户，就是那种你存钱、政府也跟着出一部分的计划。

Find out at work if they have profit sharing or IRAs or Roths, whatever the the I forget what it's called here, where if you put some money aside, the government matches it.

养老金？

Pensions?

不只是养老金，还有别的类型。

Well, not only pensions, but there's something here.

我一时想不起名字了。

I forget what it's called.

如果你通过工作账户存五千英镑，政府大概会再给你加一千英镑。

If you save £5,000 through your work, the government, I think, will match it, put in a thousand pounds.

公司里其实有很多储蓄优惠方案。

There's all sorts of saving schemes at work.

像Acorns这样的应用，会把零头自动凑到最近的一美元，然后立刻投到SPY基金里。

Acorns, the apps that round up to the nearest dollar and then immediately shoot it into SPY.

尽量让自己处在一种不得不投资的状态，哪怕你本来根本不想投。

Try as hard as you can to put yourself in a position where you invest despite your best efforts not to.

因为大多数人拿到这笔钱，第一反应就是去买台大屏电视。

Because the majority of us will get that money and go buy a flat screen TV.

当你提到投资的时候，要考虑到，对离这个很远的人来说，听起来可能特别复杂。

And when you're saying investing, think because it can sometimes sound complicated from someone that's so far away from it.

现在手机上有很多应用，几分钟就能把你刚才说的那种投资做起来。

There's apps on our phones now where we can, in a couple of minutes, invest in the exact thing you've just said.

几分钟就能开个账户，可能还得提交护照、拍张护照照片。

From we can make an account in a couple of minutes and probably ask for our passport, take a photo of our passport.

现在有太多应用，都能让你直接投资标普500指数。

There's so many different apps where you can go in and invest in the S and P 500.

你不需要找人帮忙，也不用认识谁，那最低能投多少钱呢？

You don't need to call someone or know someone, and you can invest what's the minimum you can invest?

五十美元

$50

每天。

a day.

去 Public.com。

Public.

去 public.com。

Go to public.com.

你可以先从一个基础的、低成本的ETF或者指数基金开始。

You I mean, start with a basic a basic low cost ETF or index fund.

如果你想要承担一点风险，想投科技股，市场上有很多针对科技领域的ETF和指数基金，比如SPY。

S SPY, if you wanna get take a little bit more risk and you wanna be in tech, there's all sorts of ETFs and index funds around tech.

每个年轻人，尤其是年轻男性，都觉得自己比实际更聪明，觉得能打败市场。

You're gonna, every young person, especially young men, is under the impression they're smarter than they are and that they can beat the market.

所以，不妨拿出30%的资金，玩一玩，买点星巴克、英伟达、联合利华、诺和诺德，选你觉得自己懂的公司，亲身经历一次教训：长期来看，你根本不懂市场，还是老老实实投指数基金吧。

So okay, take 30% of your money, have some fun, buy Starbucks, Nvidia, Unilever, Novo Nordisk, whatever you think you have insight into so you can learn a life lesson that over the long term you don't know what you're doing and just put it in an index fund.

人类了不起的地方就在于，我们的生产效率一直在提升。

Because the marvelous thing about the human race is we become more productive.

总的来说，西方经济体在中长期都呈现稳步上升的趋势。

And the Western economies, generally speaking, over the medium and long term are up into the right.

再说一遍，我还是回到我的那个算法或者公式上。

And again, and I'll go back to my algorithm or equation.

专注。

Focus.

找一件你可能擅长、甚至能做得特别好的事，而且这份工作有90%以上的就业率。

Find something you could be good at, maybe great, that has a 90 plus percent employment rate.

斯多葛哲学，我们还没聊到这个。

Stoicism, we haven't talked about that.

要明白，有些事情是你无法掌控的。

Realize there's some things you can't control.

把精力放在你能控制的事情上。

Focus on the things you can control.

你能控制的一件事就是开销。

One thing that is within your control is spending.

试着找一个搭档。

Try and find a partner.

试着把花钱变成一场游戏。

Try and gamify spending.

我大三暑假到大四开学前那段时间，每周只花78美元，连房租都算在内，因为我得攒够3300美元回学校。

I spent $78 a week my summer between my junior and senior year, including rent, because I needed $3,300 to go back to school.

我和兄弟会的五个朋友组队，看谁花的钱最少。

I partnered with five other guys in my fraternity, and we gamified who could spend the least amount of money.

找一个在花钱和存钱上和你观念一致的搭档。

Find a partner who's aligned with you around spending and saving.

对吧？

Right?

别高估别人对你的事有多在意，其实没人像你自己那么关注。

Realize no one's as impressed or thinking about your shit as much as you are.

对吧？

Right?

试着从锻炼和人际关系中获得满足感，而不是靠那些无聊的炫富行为。

Try and find reward from exercise, from relationships, not from signaling wealth with kind of stupid shit.

对吧？

Right?

我把这叫作斯多葛主义。

I call that stoicism.

其实更像是一种自律。

It's really more about discipline.

培养储蓄的习惯。

Develop a savings muscle.

第一，要懂得珍惜时间，因为它过得特别快。

One, an appreciation for time and how fast it's gonna go.

我当时太傻了。

I was stupid.

我记得上大学时，最好的朋友李洛特斯开车接我去海边，他当时正拼命凑两千美元，存进一个叫罗斯IRA的账户。

I remember my best friend Lee Lotus picking me up to go to the beach when I was in college, and he was scrambling to find $2,000 to put it into something called an IRA Roth.

他刚毕业，在一家公司上班，那家银行正好有这个政策。

Whereas company, a bank he was working for, he was just out of college.

我以为只要他存两千，公司就会再配两千。

If he found $2,000 they would match it with another $2,000 I thought.

我当时跟他说：‘要是我老了还觉得两千美元算回事，你就开枪打死我吧。’

I said to him these exact words, if $2,000 means anything to me when I'm older, shoot me.

我赚的钱比李洛特斯多得多，可他现在已经是百万富翁了。

I have made so much more much more money than Lee Lotus, and he is a multimillionaire now.

我也是。

So am I.

但我承受了多得多的风险和更大的起落，因为他23岁的时候，还在为凑两千美元发愁。

But I've endured a lot more risk and a lot more ups and downs because he was that lame guy scraping together $2,000 when he was 23.

我拿到在摩根士丹利的第一笔奖金，立马拿去挥霍了。

I went out and spent my first bonus check at Morgan Stanley.

我刚毕业那年在摩根士丹利拿了两万八千美元。

I got $28,000 my first year out of college, Morgan Stanley.

一张两万八千美元的支票。

$28,000 check.

我出去买了辆三万五千美元的宝马。

I go out and I buy a $35,000 BMW.

后视镜上挂着游泳镜，还以为这样能显得很酷。

Hung swim goggles from the rearview mirror thinking that would impress people.

我真不知道自己当时在想什么。

I don't know what I was doing.

我后来想，要是当年拿九千美元买辆现代，把剩下的两万块全投进SPY基金，再也不管它，现在是不是早够买十一辆法拉利了？包括那款莫名其妙吸引我的电动法拉利——这本身就很荒谬，电动法拉利。

I figured out if I had bought a Hyundai for $9,000, which you could get in 1987 or whatever it is, and invested the other 20 in SPY, never looked at it again, would I have enough money now to buy 11 Ferraris, including that new electric Ferrari that for some reason appeals to me, which makes no sense, an electric Ferrari.

不过你肯定会觉得这事儿有意思。

Anyways You're gonna love this.

我跟手下的人说，我开法拉利上班，还跟他们讲：你们好好干，总有一天，我会拥有两辆法拉利。

I tell the people who work for me that I drive up in a Ferrari, and I say, you work really hard someday, someday, I'll have two Ferraris.

不过说真的，我根本没有法拉利。

Anyways, I don't have a Ferrari, by the way.

我另一个关于法拉利的玩笑是，法拉利就像一直保持着持久的兴奋状态。

I my other joke about a Ferrari is Ferrari is like having a long consistent erection.

我真的没有法拉利。

I don't have a Ferrari.

好了好了，咱们刚才说到哪儿了？

Anyways anyways, where were we going?

你要明白，别人根本没你想象中那么在意你的那些东西。

Realize people aren't as impressed with your shit as you are.

要意识到时间的力量。

Recognize the power of time.

还有我犯的最大错误，史蒂文，就是分散投资。

And then the thing where I really screwed up, Steven, diversification.

该拿点钱出来落袋为安了。

Take some money off the table.

我听说英伟达的员工都在建议投资。

Invest in I'm hearing from employees at NVIDIA.

我们之前聊过这个。

We talked about this.

分散投资。

Diversify.

这简直是给你心理健康的防弹衣。

It's such a bulletproof Kevlar for your mental health.

你能获得无风险的回报。

You get risk free return.

没人说得准。

Nobody knows.

什么事都可能发生。

Anything can happen.

亚马逊在1999年，又跌掉了90%的市值。

Amazon 1999, again, lost 90% of its value.

你有没有体会过，把钱投进亚马逊这样的股票，眼睁睁看着资产跌掉九成的那种心理煎熬？

Do you know the kind of mental anguish when you go into a stock like Amazon and you lose 90% of your investments?

如果你想尝试点刺激的，那就把这部分资金控制在储蓄的30%以内，挑几只股票玩玩，这本身就是一堂很好的人生课。

So if you want to have some fun, ring fence it to 30% of your savings, pick some stuff, and it'll be a good life lesson for you.

如果你运气好赚到了，那再好不过。

You may get lucky, more power to you.

时间一长，你会明白，长期来看，没有什么能比得上这个。

Over time, you're going to realize nothing beats over the long term.

沃伦·巴菲特，不是世界第三富有的人吗？

Warren Buffett, what, the third wealthiest man in world?

我给你的答案，和他的一模一样。

I'm giving you the same answer he gives.

如果一个人有1万美元，该怎么投资？

If someone has $10,000, how do they invest?

他就会说，买低成本的指数基金。

And he's like, low cost index funds.

这是一段

It's a

两个半小时的对话。

two and a half hour conversation.

把它投进标

Put it in the S

普500指数基金里。

and P 500.

低成本指数基金。

Low cost index fund.

我知道。

I know.

就是这些无聊的东西让你变富的。

It's it's the boring shit that makes you rich.

对。

Yeah.

我也经常给很多首席执行官提建议。

It's also I I advise a lot of CEOs.

真正能提升股东价值的，都是那些枯燥但稳步积累的小事。

It's the boring incremental stuff to move shareholder value.

对。

Mhmm.

不对。

No.

这话太对了。

It's so true.

我年轻的时候，有一件事让我没按你说的去做，那就是我觉得自己那五百美元或者五百英镑根本不够起步。

So one of the things that stopped me when I was young from doing exactly what you just said is I didn't think that the $500 I had or the £500 that I had was enough to get started.

所以我心里对自己说，等我攒到一百万的时候，再当投资者。

So I said to myself in my head, I thought, okay, when I get a million, I'll become an investor.

我觉得很多人听这种对话时，也会想：等我每个月有五千英镑可支配收入了，再照斯科特说的去做。

And I think a lot of people actually listen to these kind of conversations and go, okay, once I've once I've got £5,000 disposable income a month, then I'll do what Scott said.

但用一小笔钱去做这件事根本没意义。

But there's no point in doing it with a small amount of money.

我想用这桶沙子来打个比方，因为我的团队带了这桶沙子，想展示当你投资标普500公司时，复利的惊人力量。

I wanted to use this little bucket of sand here as an analogy for this because my team brought a bucket of sand to illuminate the power of compounding interest when you invest in these S and P 500 companies.

这个玻璃杯代表的是，从25岁开始，每个月投资1000美元，持续12个月。

And this glass represents investing 1,000 a month in the S and P 500 over the course of twelve months starting at the age of 25.

对。

Right.

但如果你持续以这个速度投资，到65岁的时候，积累的金额就会变成这样。

But if you left it and kept investing at that rate, by the age of 65, it would look like this.

你这都快赶上祖玛海滩了。

You have Zuma Beach.

天哪。

Oh my god.

还好是你，不是我。

Thank god that's you.

天哪。

Jesus Christ.

就会变成这样。

It would look like that.

所以你讲ETF的时候，指的就是这个意思？

And this is really what you're saying when you're talking about ETFs?

你刚才问的那个年轻人，说要等攒够五百英镑再开始投资，对吧？

Well, you asked that question about the young man who says, I'm gonna wait till I get I have five hundred pounds.

要等攒到一百万才动手投资。

I'm gonna wait till I have a million before I start investing.

你得先投那五百，才能攒到一百万。

The way you get a million pounds is by investing that 500.

我们总觉得自个儿不会老。

We don't believe we're gonna get old.

我们根本没意识到时间过得这么快。

We don't recognize how fast time is gonna go.

我们根本不理解复利的威力。

We don't appreciate the power of compound interest.

别老盯着你的投资看。

Don't focus on your investments.

选低成本、低维护的指数基金就行。

Put it in low cost, low energy ETFs.

越早开始越好。

Start early.

你年轻时最大的优势就是时间，那堆沙子迟早会落完。

You have time your advantage when you're young is time, and you're gonna get that bucket of sand.

顺便说一句，这根本不是什么投资课。

By the way, this right here isn't a lesson in investing.

这其实是一堂关于讲故事的课。

This is a lesson in storytelling.

一桶沙子？

A bucket of sand?

我是说，谁会想到这个呢？

I mean, who thinks of this?

把它放在一边别管它。

Leave it out of the way.

不是的。

No.

但事实就是如此。

But it is.

确实是这样。

It is.

我啊，发现复利这种艺术和科学，在我的人生里已经太晚了。

I've I, I discovered the art and the science of compounding interest too late in my life.

我真希望有人在我18岁的时候，就狠狠地把这个道理扇到我脸上。

And I just wish someone had slapped me in the face with it at 18.

是啊。

Yeah.

这太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

说实话，我大概28岁才开始。

Honestly, I probably started at 28.

虽然比大多数人早，但也说明了一个道理：给年轻人的建议。

That's still earlier than most people, but it goes to the notion of back to the advice for a young person.

大多数年轻人根本管不住自己拿到的钱，没法坚持投资。

Most young people don't have the discipline to invest any money they get their hands on.

在资本主义经济里，世界上最聪明的人加上最先进的技术，天天给你推送各种诱人的消费诱惑——一分钟内就能升级你的生活，从经济型升级到舒适型，甚至加一份无面粉巧克力蛋糕，来自巴尔塔萨·贝林吉里的订单。

Because a capitalist economy isn't the the smartest people in the world with the most godlike technology are presenting you with amazing irresistible offers to upgrade from economy to economy comfort to add to add flourless chocolate cake to your order from Baltasar Belingerie in one minute or less.

我心想，天哪。

I'm like, oh my god.

但等等。

But wait.

这时候还有三个人正盯着这个酒店房间，发现它正在打折。

There's three other people looking at this room, this hotel room, and it's going on sale.

我最好赶紧买，因为真的很难留住任何钱。

I better buy it's so difficult to hold on to any money.

你得想办法强制储蓄。

You wanna find ways of forced savings.

买房在某种程度上就是强制储蓄，毕竟没人想被赶出家门。

A house is forced savings to a certain extent because people don't wanna be evicted from their house.

去公司上班，拿到股票期权，享受税前递延，这也算一种强制储蓄。

Going to work for a company and getting options and getting equity, the gross tax deferred, that's sort of forced savings.

作为年轻人，你得尽量多找些强制储蓄的方式，比如有个App能自动把零头 roundup 到最近的整美元并投资，不管怎样都存下来，这就是强制储蓄。

But you wanna, as a young person, try and find as many ways as possible to have forced savings, an app that that rounds up to the nearest dollar and then invests no matter what, that is forced savings.

想把到手的钱拿去投资，真的特别难。

It is very difficult to take money that is in ever comes through your hands and invest it.

所以，找四个能直接从工资里扣款的储蓄方式。

So find four savings mechanisms that are taken out of your check.

问问公司有没有提供投资或储蓄计划，有没有匹配缴款，或者政府有没有补贴。

Find out if your company offers any sort of investment or saving schemes that they match or that the government matches.

大多数公司都会提供一些方案。

And most corporations offer something.

房地产。

Real estate.

我接待过很多访客，比如摩根·豪塞尔这些人，他们对房地产是否值得投资看法不一。

I had a lot of guests talk to me like Morgan Housel and others that have a sort of mixed view on whether real estate is a good investment.

你对这个怎么看？

What's your thoughts on it?

我该不该投资房地产？

Should I be investing in real estate?

不过，我25岁的时候，我哥哥跟我说过一句话。

But you know, my brother said something to me when I was 25.

他说，史蒂夫，如果人人都在玩这个游戏，那回报大概也不会太高。

He said, Steve, if everybody is playing the game, the returns probably aren't great from it.

这又回到了

Goes back to

吸引力太强了。

sex appeal.

资金涌入太多了。

Too much capital going in.

你瞧。

Look.

凯斯-席勒这样的房地产顶尖专家会说，如果把维修和保养成本都算上，房地产的回报其实并没超过其他资产类别。

Case Shiller, the brightest people in real estate will say if you really account for maintenance and upkeep, that real estate has not outperformed other asset classes.

我喜欢房地产的原因之一是，在美国，它的税务优势非常明显。

The reason I like real estate is that one, in The United States, it's very tax advantaged.

很少有资产类别能让你杠杆做到四比一。

There are very few asset classes you can lever up four to one.

只需两成首付。

20% down payment.

我没法去买苹果公司的股票。

I can't buy Apple.

我没法用20美元买价值100美元的苹果股票。

I can't buy a $100 worth of Apple stock for $20.

所以这杠杆作用非常大。

So it's it's a huge leverage.

这笔利息还能抵税。

The interest on that is tax deductible.

另外，如果你卖房子——这点在美国成立，但在其他国家不一定。

In addition, if you sell a home, and this is true in The US, not in The US.

我不清楚英国的情况，但如果你在美购房并持有至少两年再出售，单身可以免25万美元资本利得税，已婚夫妇最高能免50万。

I don't know in The UK if you buy a home and sell it after hold on to it for at two years, you get a two hundred and fifty thousand dollars tax deduction, dollars 500,000 for married.

所以，如果你有能力了解周边房价，找一套不错的房子或可出租的单元，自己动手装修升级，隔几年就换一次，利用免税政策，再把资金滚到更大的房产上。

So if you have, for example, any ability, get to know the homes in your area, find a nice home or a rental unit that you can maybe rent out or upgrade, maybe you're handy, to do that every few years and take advantage of the tax deduction and then roll into something bigger.

这其实是一种储蓄方式。

And that is for savings.

你知道每个月房贷都得按时还。

You know that mortgage payment is coming every month.

实际上，现在婴儿潮一代的大部分储蓄都体现在他们的房产里。

Actually, majority of savings for baby boomers right now is in their homes.

就是他们房子的净值。

It's the equity in their homes.

但不幸的是，也有些问题。

Unfortunately, there's some bad things.

我们没有及时增加住房建设许可，导致购房门槛越来越高。

We haven't improved housing permits as quickly as we should, which has made it more expensive for entrance.

年轻人根本买不起房子。

Young people can't afford homes.

疫情期间，美国的平均房价从29万美元涨到了42万美元。

The average home's gone from $2.90 to $4.20 through the pandemic in The US.

再看看利率，月供也从1100美元涨到了2300美元。以前三分之二的美国人还能买得起房，

And if you look at interest rates, it means the average mortgage payments gone from 1,100 to $2,300 So it used to be two thirds of America could afford a home.

现在只剩下三分之一了。

Now it's one third.

我本来打算做一档别的脱口秀，但最近刚做了一个关于经济上对年轻人打压的TED演讲。

I a whole other talk show, but I just did a TED talk on the war on the young economically.

房地产其实是个税收优惠很大的行业。

But real estate is a very tax advantaged industry.

它特别适合用来储蓄。

It is for savings.

而且我觉得，房子还有一种心理上的价值，这点很重要。

Also, there is some, I think, psychic value, which I think is important to to a home.

你开始投资它、装修它的时候，

You start investing in it, fixing it up.

就会觉得特别有成就感，说不上来为什么，但就是不一样。

It feels like, I don't know, there's something rewarding about it.

不过你哥哥说得对，当所有人都在抢购某个区域的房子时，通常就意味着价格可能被高估了。

But to what your brother said, when everyone's trying to buy homes in an area, that usually means it's probably getting overvalued.

和任何其他资产一样，房地产也会亏钱。

And like any other asset class, it can lose money.

但我喜欢它的原因，是因为它是一种强制储蓄的方式。

But the reason I like it is because it is a form of forced savings.

一般来说，人们都会按时还房贷，或者想办法凑出这笔钱。

People, generally speaking, will make that mortgage payment or try and figure out a way.

不过你要确保住房支出不要超过你收入的百分之四十。

Now you wanna make sure that not more than 40% of your income goes into a house.

否则，它就会变成你的负担。

Otherwise, it's just gonna be your anchor.

只会给你带来持续的压力。

It's just gonna be a source of stress for you.

很多人从小就被灌输一种观念：我必须拥有自己的房子。

And I think a lot of people grow up thinking I have to have a home.

于是他们把太多资金压在房产上，结果成了‘房奴’。

And so they just become over levered in their home, and they become kind of house poor.

他们确实有套房子，但别的就什么都没有了。

They own a house, and that's it.

他们就没钱做别的事了。

And they can't afford to do anything else.

那样的话，他们可能就动不了了。

And they might not be able to able to move then.

你刚才提到，年轻的时候要抓住地域上的机会。

And you talked about geographical opportunity when you're young.

没错。

That's right.

你会被绑住的。

You get tied.

尤其是当房价下跌的时候，你更难脱身。

You get tied down, especially if your home goes down in value.

但我还是觉得，在美国，房地产的税务优势是最明显的。

But I still think it's, in The US at least, real estate's the most tax advantage.

如果你在美国拥有商业地产，每年可以折旧百分之二到三。

And if you own commercial real estate in The US, you can depreciate it two or 3% a year.

股票可没法每年折旧百分之二到三。

You can't depreciate a stock two or 3% a year.

在你看来，有没有哪些人适合买房，哪些人不适合呢？

Is there someone that should and shouldn't buy a home then in your view?

有没有特定的人群、年龄层，或者具备某种特质的人，根本不该买房？

Is there a certain demographic or age or person with a certain talent that shouldn't shouldn't buy a home?

一般来说，如果你觉得自己至少撑不了七年，那就别买房子了。

I would say in general, if it's a home, if you think that you're not gonna be able to hold on to it for at least seven years.

只要你能持有七年，大多数经济周期或者经济下行期你都能挺过去。

If you hold onto a home for seven years, you should be able to ride out most economic cycles or a economic down cycle.

租房其实也有很多好处。

I think there's some wonderful things about renting.

如果你打算搬家，把钥匙一撂就能走人。

You can slam your keys down and leave if you're planning to move.

如果你的收入不够稳定，还房贷可能会很吃力。

If you don't have somewhat reliable sources of income, a mortgage is probably a tough thing.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得，说到房产，我其实是在讲自己的经历，因为我在房地产上赚了不少钱。

I think I think homeownership I'm talking to my own book a little bit here because I've made good money in real estate.

我真的很享受这个过程。

I've really enjoyed it.

但我认为这要看具体情况，关键还是要有一群能给你房产投资建议的人。

But I think it's situational, and it goes back to that notion of having a kitchen cabinet of people who can advise you on on on that asset class.

可惜的是，现在房价太高了，对很多年轻人来说，拥有住房的所谓美国梦，简直就像一场幻觉或者空想。

Unfortunately, that asset class has become so expensive that the quote unquote American dream of owning a home has become somewhat of a hallucination, if you will, or a fantasy for a lot of young people.