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在我成长过程中,所有人都告诉我,要创造财富就得找份工作、赚钱,然后申请房贷。
When I grew up, everyone said to me that to generate wealth, get a job, get money, then get a mortgage.
这是你能给人最糟糕的建议之一。
That's one of the worst pieces of advice you can give somebody.
而你的未来会因此变得更贫穷。
And your future self is gonna be poorer because of it.
但这就是大家都在做的事。
But that's what everyone's doing.
因为我们没学过这些。
Because we're not taught this stuff.
那你认为普通人犯的最大财务错误是什么?
So what do think the biggest money mistake the average person makes is?
当个储蓄者。
Being saver.
所以你就把钱存在银行账户里?
So just having your money sat in a bank account?
是啊。这等于每天都在眼睁睁看着自己变穷。
Yeah. It's a guaranteed loss to becoming poor every single day.
但其实有很多方法可以提前退休并实现财务自由。
But there are plenty of ways to retire early and be financially independent.
其中还包括让人致富的隐秘诀窍。
And that's including secret hack that makes people fortune.
现在我们来聊聊如何赚更多钱。这是一堂终极赚钱大师课。
So let's talk about making more money. This is the ultimate money making masterclass.
今天我们请到了三位财务专家。
As we are joined by three financial gurus.
他们对于未来财富积累有着截然不同的观点和方法。我想探讨养老金、信用卡、租房、不良金钱习惯、债务、被动收入、花钱装富这些话题。但首先,富人知道哪些普通人不知道的事?富人
With very different opinions and methods to build future wealth. So I wanna talk about pensions, credit cards, renting, bad money habits, debt, passive income, spending money to look rich. But first, what is it that rich people know that the average person doesn't know? Rich people
他们更自律,正在做一些小事,这些小事会累积成巨大的成果,比如投资。
are more disciplined, and they're doing little things that compound into huge results like investing.
但是,举个例子,普通美国人在Netflix上的花费比他们的投资还要多。如果我每月投资一千美元,持续三十年,投资于像标准普尔500这样的项目,我将拥有大约190万美元。
But, for example, the average American spend more money on Netflix than they do their investments. And if I invest a thousand dollars a month for thirty years in something like the S and P 500, I will have about $1,900,000.
或者说,在人类历史上,没有任何资产能在如此短的时间内像比特币那样创造如此多的财富。
Or there's no asset in all human history that's ever generated as much wealth in short of period time than Bitcoin.
有一个问题。比特币风险很高。如果其中任何风险发生
There's one problem. Bitcoin is high risk. And if any of those risks happen
当我不
When I don't
让我说完。你是希望拥有比特币,还是更想要更多的安全保障?
Let me let me finish. Do you wanna have hope that you have the Bitcoin, or would you rather have more security?
你可以降低风险。我们的工作就是教育他们。
You can reduce risk. Allow our job to educate them.
那么如果有人只有一千美元,你会建议他们怎么做?
So if someone is a thousand dollars, what would you suggest they did?
关于如何赚更多钱,我有不同的看法。
I have a different take on this if you're trying to make more money.
我会...那不良的金钱习惯呢?因为数据显示,金钱是美国人的首要压力来源,超过了工作、家庭和健康。
I would And what about bad money habits? Because when you look at the stats, money is the number one source of stress for Americans topping work, family, and health.
其实有一个三步框架,我想详细说说。第一点
Well, there's a three step framework, so I wanna get into that. Number one
请给我三十秒时间。我有两件事想说。首先衷心感谢你们每周持续收听这个节目,这对我们所有人意义重大,能走到今天是我们从未敢想也不敢奢望的梦想。但其次,我们感觉这个梦想才刚刚开始。
Just give me thirty seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started.
如果喜欢我们的节目,请加入24%的固定听众群体,在这个应用上关注我们。我向你们承诺:我会竭尽所能让节目现在和未来都保持高质量。我们会邀请你们想见的嘉宾,继续呈现你们喜爱的所有内容。谢谢。
And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show. Thank you.
我认为首先要解决的是人们想知道如何赚更多钱。因为如果感觉没钱,储蓄投资这类事就显得毫无意义。当然我明白事实未必如此——其实小额资金也可以开始投资储蓄。但对于那些正在收听并疑惑'该怎么赚钱'的听众来说...
I think that the first place to start is people want to know how they can make more money. Because if you don't feel like you have money, saving and investing in these kinds of things appear to be pointless. I also understand that that's not necessarily true. I think you can you can start investing and saving with very small amounts of money. But for those people that are asking that question, if they're listening to this now and going, how does one make money?
比如说,你知道,我有了这份工作。朝九晚五上班,年薪3万英镑或4万美元左右,不管具体多少,关键问题应该是:我怎样才能赚更多钱?如果是这样,又该如何实现?
Like, you know, I've got this job. I'm working a nine to five. It's paying me £30,000 a year or $40,000 a year, whatever it might be, is the right question to be asking, how do I make more money? And if so, how do I do that?
我一直认为这是增加收入和节省开支的双重结合,不过我们先谈谈增收部分。我觉得每个人都有独特之处。对吧?你可能在某些爱好上投入了比我多得多的时间,比如你打板网球。
I always think it's it's a combination of making more money and also saving more money, but let's talk about the making more money piece. I think that everyone is unique in their own way. Right? You've probably spent more hours doing some sort of hobby that I have no idea about. You play paddle, for example.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我这辈子从没打过板网球。假设你从20岁起就是史蒂文,是个非常优秀的板网球选手。你就能将这种我完全不具备的技能变现——即使你并非职业选手,我可能仍愿意每小时支付20.25英镑跟你学球。
I've never played paddle in my life. So let's say you were Steve Steven from age 20 and you're a really good paddle player. You can start to monetize this type of skill, which you have that I don't, but perhaps you know more than me. I could take lessons from you. Even if you're not, let's say, the pro paddle player that you are, I might still be willing to pay you $20.25 pounds an hour for a lesson.
对吧?仅仅因为你天生比我打得好。所以我鼓励人们发挥自己的独特性,深耕他们长期投入的领域。我相信每个人都有与生俱来的天赋,关键要发掘内在技能并找到变现途径。
Right? Just because you're naturally better than I am. And so I I would encourage people to to kind of lean into what makes them unique and where where they've spent a lot of their time. I think everyone has something that they're good at inherently. Figuring out what skills you have internally and how you can kinda monetize those.
拉胡尔,你怎么看?
What what do you think, Rahul?
我认为一个隐藏要点是:你本质上是由所处的圈子塑造的。要投资你的人脉网络。这不是说冷血地功利社交,而是主动接触那些也在努力突破自我、提升收入和拓展机会的人。当周围都是安于现状的朋友时,独善其身的你会被视为异类。找到志同道合的伙伴,彼此扶持共同成长。
I think one of hidden things to do is you really are a function of who you're surrounded by. Invest in your network. And I don't mean that in a kind of cold hearted, you know, I wanna network with these people, but just surround yourself by people who are who are also trying to push themselves to push their income, push their opportunity set, and it makes it so much easier. If you're the only one doing it and you're around a group of friends, you're the odd one out, and you're castigated for it. Find other people who want to do the same thing, and you kinda help each other in that journey.
所以在早期阶段,关键之一就是找到那些与你志同道合的人。这确实大有裨益。其次,关键在于如何最大限度地发挥你的技能组合,并诚实地评估自己的技能。仅仅因为你是一名医生,并不意味着你必须从事医生职业,毕业证书并非唯一选择。你需要探索其他可能性。
So at an early stage, that's just one of the key things, is to find people who also want the same journey as you. That really helps. Then it's still about the best leverage of your skill set and being honest with what your skill set is. Just because you're a doctor doesn't mean you should be a doctor just because you've graduated because you can do other things. And it's figuring that out.
这并非易事,但通过不断尝试,你会逐渐明白。我们都从事过多种工作,清楚自己的短板和优势所在。你会更倾向于发挥自己的长处,这种做法行之有效。因此,如果你还处于早期阶段,现在是时候对自己下注了。嗯。
That's not an easy bit, but you figure it over time by trying stuff. We've all done multiple jobs. And we know what we're terrible at and what we've been good at. And you kind of over index on the things you're you're better at, and that works. So if you're if you're early, it's the time to make bets in yourself Mhmm.
还有你的人际网络。这些将为你奠定基础工具,从而获得更多收入,进而进行更多投资。
And your network. And that gives you the foundational tools to then earn more income and then invest more.
你是否做过看似毫无意义、但事后证明是赚钱最多的工作?以我为例,16岁到19岁期间从事的电话销售可能是我做过最重要的事。不仅因为我现在经常需要演讲,销售技能在融资、说服员工加入等方面都具有可迁移性。我认为没有什么比电话销售更重要的经历了。
Was there a pointless seemingly pointless job you did that ended up in hindsight making you the most money? And what I mean by that is I think about my experience doing telesales between the age of 16 and 19 as probably the most important thing I ever did. Like, not only do I spend a lot of time talking now, but sales is a transferable skill across raising investment, persuading employees to come and join you. And I think there's nothing I did that was more important than telesales.
人生中最值得掌握的技能就是学会销售。能够从容与人相处并有效传达信息,这是你所能拥有的最强大工具。无论是寻找人生伴侣还是其他任何事,本质上都是销售行为。
The single best skill you can acquire in life is is to learn how to sell. To be comfortable around people and to be able to get a message across is the single most powerful tool you can have in life. Everything you do, finding a partner in life, doing anything you do is basically sales.
全都与人有关?
And it's all people?
全都与人有关。
It's all people.
所以如果我是一个24、25岁的年轻人,心怀壮志,渴望成就一番大事业,你就必须找到更多的收入来源。你需要有更多的收入来实现它。如果我25岁,只想过得还行,不介意自己的工作,只想投资什么的,你就得找到合适的投资方式。你需要为你的钱建立一个系统,然后制定一个计划。每次拿到薪水时,你都清楚自己要存多少钱。
So if I'm this 24 year old 25 year old and I'm ambitious, I want something big, you've got to find more income. You've got to have more income to do it. If I'm a 25 year old and I just want to be okay, I don't mind my job, I just want to invest, whatever, you've got to find the right investments. You've got to have a system for your money, and then you gotta create a plan. Anytime you get paid, you know how much money you're going to save.
你知道自己要投资多少钱,然后花剩下的部分。因为富人与其他人的区别在于,富人先存钱和投资。而其他人,尤其是在美国,总是花光所有的钱。然后纳闷钱都去哪儿了。嗯哼。
You know how much money you're going to invest, and then you spend what's left. Because the difference between the person that becomes wealthy and everybody else is wealthy people save and invest their money first. Everybody else, especially in America, I spend all my money. I wonder where all my money went. Mhmm.
如果还有剩下的,我才会试着存一点,也许投资一点,希望这样能变得富有。
And then if there's anything left, I'll try to save and maybe invest, and hopefully, I'll get rich.
嗯哼。对我来说,一切都取决于你对未来自我的愿景。你知道,你希望自己过什么样的生活?因为这就是我们的行为方式。不快乐的根源之一就是,如果你现在的状态没有朝着你未来自我想要的方向发展,没有符合你对自己的想象。
Mhmm. For me, it's all around based around what is your vision of your future self. You know, how do you see yourself living? Because that is what we do. It's one of the sources of unhappiness is if your current state is not moving on the path of where your future self wants to be, how you imagine yourself.
那么从实际和战术的角度来看,他们是怎么做到的?他们如何创建这个财务愿景板?他们需要知道某些具体的数字吗?他们是否应该明确自己是想坐私人飞机还是廉价航空?哦,
So practically and tactically, how do they do that? How do they create this this financial vision board? Is there do they need to know certain numbers? Do they should they get clear on if they wanna be on a private jet or easy jet? Oh,
老兄。我觉得,如果你需要问自己,我是想坐廉价航空还是私人飞机?我想你心里已经有答案了。
man. I think I think you know. If if if you have to ask yourself, do I wanna fly on Spirit Airlines, do I wanna fly on a private jet? I think you already know that question.
但对自己明确这一点重要吗?因为实际上,回想我人生的大部分时间,我并不是完全清晰的。所以你最终要么追逐更多更多的东西,要么……
But is it important to be explicitly clear with yourself? Because, actually, if I think of most of my life, I I wasn't entirely clear, And so you either end up chasing Because just more and more
而非物质层面的结果。它通常是一种情感上的结果。是的。正因如此,很难确切指出它是什么。但你需要将自己置于那个未来的自我中,问问自己,那感觉如何?
and not a materialistic outcome. It's generally an emotional outcome. Yeah. And that's why it's hard to to pinpoint exactly what it is. But you need to position yourself in that future self and say, what does it feel like?
我感到安全吗?我感觉这样吗?我感觉那样吗?所以这是一种情感上的东西,而非物质上的。
Do I feel secure? Do I feel this? Do I feel that? So it's it's an emotional thing and not a material thing.
这是否是许多问题的核心?你谈到了情感因素,即是否在意他人对你的看法。
Is is that central to a lot of this? You talked about emotional elements, is being okay with what other people think of you.
是的。那是另一个问题。社会压力。对吧?你可能对自己有一个愿景,比如你想要一栋三居室的房子,带一小块草坪和烧烤架,这很好。
Yeah. That's the other thing. It's social pressure. Right? So you may have a vision of yourself, and you just say, I want the the three bed house, you know, with a little strip of lawn and the barbecue, and that's great.
但你周围的人会说,你应该更努力。是的。他们在质疑你自己的幸福感,而社会在大规模地这样做。甚至整个媒体都在渲染你有多不快乐、多悲惨,以及你应该如此。这让事情变得不容易。
And around you, people are like, you should try harder. Yeah. So they're questioning your own sense of happiness, and society does that at scale. And then even the whole media complex is about how unhappy and how miserable you are and should be. It doesn't make it an easy place.
我们在这里讨论的是情感和心理障碍。我们如何克服人们不仅害怕他人的看法,还有很多人害怕自己的钱?根据回避行为的统计数据,82%的美国人承认他们避免思考自己的财务状况,四分之一的美国人因为害怕账单和考虑费用而回避医疗护理。对于Z世代,67%的Z世代和58%的千禧一代表示他们因为压力太大而避免查看自己的银行账户,而婴儿潮一代只有30%。在心理健康方面,金钱是美国人的首要压力来源,超过了工作、家庭和健康。
We were talking about emotional and psychological barriers here. How do we get over people not just being scared of what other people think, but so many people are scared of their own money? When you look at the stats around avoidance, eighty two percent of Americans admit they avoid thinking about their own finances, And one in four Americans have avoided medical care because they're afraid of the the bill and thinking about how much it might cost. For Gen Zs, sixty seven percent of Gen Z and fifty eight percent of mill millennials say they avoid checking their own bank account because it's too stressful, which is compared to only thirty percent of boomers. And on in terms of mental health, money is the number one source of stress for Americans, topping work, family, and health.
36%的负债者经历过临床焦虑,23%的人经历过抑郁。所以人们回避自己的财务状况。
Thirty six percent of people with debt experience clinical anxiety, and twenty three percent depression. So people avoid their own money.
很多人避而远之,因为金融界充斥着行话。没错。你需要找专业人士咨询。人们都是这么想的。
A lot of people avoid it because the financial world's full of jargon. Yep. You need to go to a professional for advice. That's what people think.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这很吓人。嗯。你会觉得自己钱不够。你会让他们失望,让自己失望,让家人失望。所以围绕它有一整套这样的心理。
It's intimidating. Mhmm. You don't feel like you've got enough money. You're gonna let them down, yourself down, your family down. So there's this whole kind of thing around it.
关键在于相信自己能学会。嗯。因为很多人会说,不。不。除非你来自投行或是注册投资顾问之类的,否则你做不到。
It's the confidence that you can learn. Mhmm. Because a lot of people say, no. No. Unless you're from an investment bank or you're an RIA or something, you can't do this.
对。但只需要一点点信心说,是的,你能做到。
Right. But just a little bit of confidence to say, yeah, you can do this.
我认为人们可以做的简单建议就是弄清楚他们每月的开销。追踪你三十天、六十天或九十天的支出,你会对自己的消费习惯有更深的了解。因为有时我会忘记自己在DoorDash上点了30美元的外卖,或是忘了那笔15或20美元的优步费用,刷卡时就这么随手记下了。我并没有真正意识到。就像你去健身房却不清楚自己的体重,那你的起点在哪里呢?
A simple tip that I think people can do is just kind of figure out how much they spend on a monthly basis. Track your expenses for thirty days, sixty days, or ninety days, and you're going learn so much more about just your personal habits of what you do. Because sometimes I'll forget that I DoorDash something for $30 or I'll forget that $15 or $20 Uber charge, and I'll just kind of file it away because I'm swiping my credit card. I don't really I'm not aware of it. It's like if you're going to the gym and you're not aware of your weight, how are you gonna where's where's your starting point?
所以我喜欢给人们一个起点,这样他们就能迈出一小步,开始以这种方式管理财务。
So you I like to give people a starting point because then they can kind of have that small step to kind of start working towards their finances in that sort of way.
根据美国银行的调查,65%的美国人完全不清楚自己上个月的花销,60%的人严重低估了自己的月度支出。
65% of Americans have no idea what they spent in the last month, according to the US Bank, and 60% underestimate their monthly spending by a significant margin.
没错。这正是我的发现。2014年我记录了一个月的开支,原以为每月只花1500美元。结果呢?
Right. And that's exactly what I found. I tracked my expenses for a month in 2014. I thought I was spending $1,500 a month. Guess what?
实际开销高达2800美元,而我的收入根本支撑不起。我当时就想,怎么会偏差到这种程度——足足差了70%?后来我发现,就连我发起挑战的朋友们,大多数也坚持不到三个月。但我觉得只要对支出有个大致概念就有帮助,因为这意味着你能察觉收支差异,从而存下这笔钱。
I was spending $2,800 And I wasn't making that much. And I was like, how am I off by an order of magnitude of, I don't know, 70%? And I find that even, like, all my friends I issue this challenge to, most of them don't make it to the three months. But I think as long as you have an approximation of what you're spending, that can help. Because that that means then you're gonna have a little bit of a difference of what you make and what you spend, and then you can save that money.
我认为美国人的不良消费习惯之一就是不储蓄。对吧?所以
And I think that's one of the bad money habits of Americans is they don't save. Right? So
这个观点很实在,提升自我认知确实是个实用方法。因为你需要先清楚现状,才能明白该如何达到目标。所以
It's really good point, which is a a practical step to just heighten one's awareness Yeah. Because you need to have sort of informational awareness of where you're at to even understand what you need to do to to get to where you wanna go. So
是的。我认为要从心态开始改变。打好基础很重要:先还清信用卡债务,存点小钱。
Yeah. I think you need to start with the mindset. You have to build the basics. You gotta get rid of the credit card debt. You've got to save a little bit of money.
必须留出喘息空间,因为投资本质就是把闲钱投到能增值的地方。这里我要介绍一个三步框架——投资方式很多,最简单的就是全权委托理财顾问,把钱交给他们打理。
You've to have some breathing room because investing is all about taking the extra money that you have, throwing it somewhere to grow that money. And this is where there's a three step framework that I'll talk about because there's a lot of ways to invest. At the very simplest is I could be completely hands off. I can work with a financial adviser. I can give them my money, and they can do everything for me.
如果你没有很多钱,你就请不到很好的顾问,但财务顾问也有弊端和成本,那就是你必须支付的费用,因为他们会
If you don't have a lot of money, you're not gonna get a very good adviser, but there's a con and a cost to a financial advisor, which is the amount of money you have to pay because they're going to
收取一笔
charge a
费用。所以如果我每月投资一千美元聘请财务顾问,我就能请到一位能跑赢市场的好顾问。他们每年获得11%的收益,而我需要支付每年1.5%的费用。三十年后,在支付了60万美元给顾问后,我将拥有180万美元。第二阶段是成为完全被动的投资者。
fee. So if I invest my money, a thousand dollars a month with a financial advisor, I get a good financial advisor who beats the market. They get 11% a year, I have to pay one and a half percent a year. After thirty years, I'm gonna have 1,800,000 after paying $600,000 to my adviser. Stage number two is I can be a completely passive investor.
这比请顾问稍微多花些精力,但我可以直接把钱投入股市,比如标普500指数,这是由股市中500家最大公司组成的。这有点像把你的钱投资于美国经济。历史上它平均每年有10%的回报,这意味着如果我每月投资一千美元,持续三十年,我将拥有约190万美元。比完全放手多花一点功夫,但仍然相当被动。然后我们还有那些想更积极参与的人。
So a little bit more involved than an adviser, but I can just put my money into the stock market, something like the S and P five hundred, which is a group of the 500 largest companies in the stock market. It's kind of like investing your money into The United States economy. This has historically averaged 10% a year, which means if I invest a thousand dollars a month for thirty years, I will have about $1,900,000. A little bit more work than completely hands off, but still pretty passive. Then we have the people that want to be more involved.
我们称之为主动投资者。主动投资者是指那些现在想自己投资的人。我不是指交易,而是真正地投资他们的钱,现在我要做研究来决定我想拥有哪些投资。也许我想拥有房地产。
What we call is a active investor. And an active investor is somebody who now wants to invest their money themselves. And I don't mean trading. I mean actually investing their money, and now I'm going to be doing the research to find which investments I want to own. Maybe it's real estate that I want to own.
也许我想投资个别公司。所以这是为了更高的潜在回报而承担更多风险。一个小小的优势就能带来超额的回报。因为如果我现在不是获得10%的回报,而是13%,你知道,我们不是在谈论200%或50%的回报。13%的年回报意味着每月约1000美元的投资,三十年后将增长到350万美元。
Maybe I want to invest in individual companies. So it's more risk for more potential return. A small edge can give you outsized return. Because if now I don't get a 10% return, I can get a 13% return, which, you know, we're not talking about 200 or 50% returns. A 13% annual return means that about $1,000 a month over thirty years is now gonna grow to 3 and a half million dollars.
所以比之前多了约160万美元,仅仅因为一点小小的优势,而你需要想清楚你想参与多少。
So about $1,600,000 more than before just with a slight edge, and you gotta figure out how involved you wanna be.
关于主动投资自行选股与被动投资的对比,数据显示正如你所说,投资标普500的被动投资者长期表现优于大多数选股者。在二十年周期内,超过90%的主动管理型基金在扣除费用后跑输标普500。那么人们应该主动投资,还是该把钱投入标普500指数然后耐心等待?
On this point of in being an active investor and picking stocks yourself versus being a passive one, the data shows that passive investors who invest in the S and P five hundred, like you said, consistently outperform most stock pickers. Over a twenty year period, more than 90% of actively managed investors, so talking about funds there, underperformed the S and P 500 after fees. So should people be actively investing, or should they just put the money in an S and P 500 and be patient?
我认为绝大多数人不该做主动投资者。事实上,美国98%的人都不该主动投资。选择被动投资就好,因为如果你不愿投入精力,不肯花时间研究,你很可能会亏损——很多人确实如此。
I say most people should not be active investors. In fact, I say 98% of America should not be active investors. Just be a passive investor because if you don't want to put in the work, if you're not willing to put in the time and the effort to research, you're probably gonna lose, and many people do.
既然胜算渺茫,为什么人们还想做主动投资者?
So why do people wanna be active investors if the if the probability is stacked against them?
嗯,如果你愿意投入研究,确实可能获得更高回报。我们看到确实有人能持续做到这一点。
Well, if you get a little bit better returns, if you're willing to put in the work, you can get better returns, and it is possible. We do see people that are doing it consistently.
某种程度上是娱乐消遣?当然。就像人们喜欢体育博彩和——
An amount of fun in entertainment? Absolutely. People like sports betting and
问题就在这儿。真正的乐趣应该来自研究过程,而不是『明天就想看到资产增值』。如果我明早买了房子,下午会去Zillow查房价吗?晚上会再查吗?不会,因为你知道这是长期持有的资产。
That's the problem. Because the fun is I like researching versus, Oh, I want to see my money go up tomorrow. If I buy a house tomorrow morning, am I going to go into Zillow in the afternoon and check what is my house price? Am I checking in the evening what's my house price? No, because you know that this is something I want to own for the long term.
但在股市就不同——流动性太强了。早上买的股票,十五分钟后查看,午餐时查看,上厕所查看,晚上查看...涨跌都让我焦虑不已。这种情绪控制能力对投资者而言,与研究分析能力同等重要。
Well, when I go into the stock market, because it's so liquid, I buy a stock in the morning, I'm checking it fifteen minutes later, I'm checking it lunch, I'm checking it in the bathroom, checking it the evening, and I'm getting anxiety because if it's going up or down, I'm very emotional, and that emotional control as an investor, which is just as important as the research that you're putting in.
看吧,我与这一切有着本质的不同,人们的生活被彻底搞砸了。他们从大学毕业时背负着巨额债务。我们之前在镜头外讨论过这个数据:30岁拥有房贷且已婚的人群比例已从1950年的52%暴跌至12%。现在没人能负担得起任何东西。如果你观察美国千禧一代和Z世代的平均水平,他们如果有工作的话通常只有401k计划(退休账户),对吧?
See, I'm fundamentally different from all of this stuff, is people are so screwed. They are coming out of university with massive debts. We looked at the stat earlier off camera when we were talking about the fact that the percentage of 30 year olds who have a mortgage and are married has gone from fifty two percent in 1950 to twelve percent. Nobody can afford anything. So if you look at the average millennial in The US and a Gen Z, they generally have a four zero one if they've got a job, right?
他们或许有些积蓄,但正在承担巨大风险。我们很多人会觉得这种行为简直荒谬。
They have some sort of savings. But they're taking massive amounts of risk. A lot of us would look at them and say, this is ridiculous.
为什么他们要替任何人承担这种风险?
Why are they taking risk for anyone that
因为根本没办法缩小这个鸿沟——从攒首付到买房,实现他们对未来的设想(无论这个设想多么合理)。为什么?因为资产价格相对于他们停滞不前的收入涨得太离谱了。
is Because there is no way of closing the gap between buying, getting the deposit on the house, getting into a house, realizing that future vision of themselves, however reasonable that is. Why? It's so far away because the as the cost of assets has gone up so much versus their incomes would don't go up.
你是指比如买房这类消费的成本?
You mean the cost of buying, like, a house, for example?
没错。或者用平均工资能购买的股票市场份额来类比也行。现在钱越来越不值钱了,所以未来你注定会更穷——因为同样一笔钱能买的房子(或其他资产)变少了。
Yes. Or even however much percentage share of the stock market the average salary does. You know, stuff like that. You're you're getting less for your money. So your future self is automatically gonna be poorer because of it because you could buy less of a house, etcetera.
用傻瓜都能懂的方式解释给我听。假设我是个10岁小孩,就拿眼前这个马克杯举例——根据你的说法,为什么它现在贬值了?
Explain that to me like I'm an idiot. Like, I'm a like, I'm 10 years old. And maybe in the context of this mug here. In terms of the how why is that worth less now based on what you said?
解释的方式是,货币是交换媒介,是你用来购买物品的东西。如果我们都有很多钱,桌上堆满了现金,你想卖那个杯子,我们可以为它支付任何价格,因为我们有一堆现金。嗯。所以那个杯子的价值突然不再是它应有的10美元,而是我们突然愿意为它支付150美元。
The way of explaining it is money is the medium of exchange, the thing that you buy something with. If we all have a lot of money, we've all got a stack of cash on this table, and you wanna sell that mug, we can pay anything for that mug because we've got a stack of cash. Mhmm. So that mug suddenly is worth not the $10 it's supposed to be worth. It's suddenly we're paying $150 for the mug.
为什么?因为那些钱对我们来说没有价值,因为我们有过剩的钱。所以当你在系统中创造过剩的货币时,这就是货币贬值。这是一种资产价值实际上升的视觉错觉,其实并没有。
Why? Because that money has no value to us because we've got excess money. So when you create excess money in the system, it's this debasement of currency. It's an optical illusion that the value of assets are actually going up. They're not.
是你的钱在贬值。这就是痛点所在,因为你的收入通常只随经济增长而增长,加上你职业的进步或其他因素。但那些稀缺资产,从视觉上看,它们的上涨幅度实际上是在降低货币的价值。所以你会发现,薪水每年大约增长2%或3%,而标普500指数的成本每年上涨约12%、13%。
It's the value of your money's going down. And this is this pain point because your earnings only grow with economic growth generally, plus your progression of your career or whatever it may be. But those things, the scarce assets, are going up optically by the amounts they're lowering the thing. So what you find is salaries go up at about 2% or 3% a year. And the house of the cost of the S and P is about 12%, 13% up every year.
房价也差不多。黄金也是类似的情况。
And a house price is about the same. Gold is about the same.
那是因为他们在印越来越多的钱?正确。好的。这对我来说完全说得通。所以我猜你面前会有一大叠纸,用来做笔记。
And that's because they're printing more and more money? Correct. Okay. That makes perfect sense to me. So I'm imagining you will have a big stack of paper in front of you which you're using to take some notes on.
如果我说,我要用你们那里的一些纸来卖给你们这个杯子,但我的团队说你们可以拥有无限的纸。这个杯子就贬值了,因为你们都可以用无数张纸来换这个杯子。
And if if I was saying, I'm gonna sell you guys this mug for some of the paper you have there, But then my team said you guys can have unlimited paper. This mug loses value because you can all just offer a gazillion sheets of paper for this mug.
嗯,它并没有贬值。从视觉上看,你会愿意用无数张纸来换它,而不是,比如说,三张纸,因为我们有太多纸了。这无关紧要。
Well, it doesn't lose value. It optically will give you a gazillion for it as opposed to, you know, three sheet sheets of paper because we've got so much paper. It matters not.
所以我会想,哇。就像这个杯子,它值无数张纸,但实际上因为现在每张纸都一文不值。
So I'll be I'll be thinking, wow. Like, this mug, it's worth a gazillion sheets of paper, but actually the because each sheet of paper is now worth nothing.
没错。
Correct.
好的,明白了。
Okay. Got you.
这就是人们现在面临的问题,他们把资金投入401k账户,按10%复利增长。对我们这代人来说,世界就是这样运作的,而且效果很好。但现在行不通了。所以他们需要年增长50%、100%的资产,这很荒谬,但幸运的是,我们恰好拥有几种这样的资产。这确实帮了大忙。
And this is the problem that people are finding, is they put money in a four zero one ks, you compound it at 10%. For my generation, yeah, that was that was how the world worked, and it was great. And it worked, and now it doesn't work. So they need assets that go up 50% a year, 100% a year, which is ridiculous, But luckily, we've been gifted a few. And so that's helped.
继续说下去。
Go on say it.
好吧,就是加密货币。简单来说,它的表现远超其他所有资产,即便波动剧烈。比如比特币自2012年以来,年均回报率约145%,是股市的10倍。这还包括期间370%的暴跌。
Well, it's crypto. Simplistically, it just outperforms all other assets, even with the excess volatility. So Bitcoin, for example, produces about since 2012, it's produced about 145% a year returns. So that's 10x the stock market. And that's including 370% drawdowns in the middle of it.
所谓暴跌就是下跌的意思。
A drawdown being a drop.
是啊。但你会觉得自己像个白痴。你在亏钱。一切都会消失,你知道,你你你犯了人生中最大的错误,但它会复苏,继续前行,因为它是一个技术网络采用模型在发挥作用。所以它只是不断吸引更多人加入。
Yeah. But you feel like you're an idiot. You're losing money. It's all gonna go you know, you you you've made the biggest mistake in your life, and it recovers, and it keeps going because it's a it's a technological network adoption model that's happening. So it's just sucking in more and more people.
现在全球有6.5亿个加密货币经纪账户,比全球所有股票市场经纪账户加起来还多。我们在世界各地都看到这种现象,因为每个人都能购买某样东西的份额。所以不同于没人能买得起这里的第五大道公寓,每个人都能购买比特币的碎片化份额,理论上这是个10万美元的资产。但我们都可以投入10美元、5美元、一千块,甚至100亿美元。
So there's now six fifty million crypto brokerage accounts in the world, which is more than all the stock market brokerage accounts added together in the world. And we're seeing it all around the world because everybody can buy a share of something. So as opposed to being able to buy nobody can buy a Fifth Avenue apartment here, everybody can buy a fractionalized share of Bitcoin, which is, in theory, a $100,000 asset. But we can all put in $10, $5, a thousand bucks, $10,000,000,000.
那我就要质疑了。比特币没有任何基础支撑啊。好吧,我这是在唱衰,这是我的工作。
Let me challenge it then. So Bitcoin isn't based on anything, though. Okay. I'm being I'm being a fudder here. That's my job.
比特币没有任何基础。它是天空中的数据库,没有黄金背书,也不产生任何有价值的副产品。那我们凭什么对比特币有信心?本质上——在有人截取这段之前我先声明,我这是在扮演魔鬼代言人——很多人会说它本质上就是个庞氏骗局。嗯。
Bitcoin isn't based on anything. It is a database in the sky that isn't backed by gold, or it doesn't produce any sort of valuable asset as its byproduct. So why how can we have faith in Bitcoin? It's essentially, in its essence, before someone clips me, this is I'm playing devil's advocate because I know they're just gonna clip this part out. It is essentially, many would say, a Ponzi scheme Mhmm.
它只有更多人参与才会升值。如果所有人都认为它毫无价值,它就会归零。
Which is it only goes up if other people take part in it. And if everybody decides that it's not worth anything, then it's gonna go to zero.
所有货币都是社会共识。一切皆是。黄金也没有实际价值。
So all money is social consensus. Everything. Gold has no real value.
但我能用黄金造桌子啊。可以在上面放东西,而且它很好——不会生锈。
I can build a table with gold, though. I can rest some things on it, and it's a good it doesn't rust.
如果每个人都在打造黄金桌子,那么你打造的黄金桌子价值就会大幅降低。
If you're building a table of gold, then the value is gonna be much less if everybody's building gold tables.
特朗普有。
Trump has.
我们确实如此。这是事实。所以,归根结底这只是社会共识。我们人类赋予什么事物以价值?
We do. That's true. And so, really, it's just social consensus. What do we, as humans, ascribe value to?
但正如你提到的145%问题,比特币曾多次下跌超过70%。
But the problem with the 145%, like you mentioned, Bitcoin has fallen by 70 plus percent on multiple occasions.
嗯。
Mhmm.
让我们回到标普500指数。很多人投资SPY(标普500指数基金)仍然亏损。为什么?因为每当市场下行时,人们恐慌性抛售。比特币我记得是2009年诞生的,如果我没记错的话。
If we let's go back to the S and P 500. A lot of people invest in the SPY, the S and P 500, and still lose money. Why? Because when the we go through any downturn, people panic and they sell. And if we look at I Bitcoin's I think Bitcoin's 2009 when it started, if I'm I'm gonna say.
观察近年来的暴跌:2020年股票下跌30%,比特币跌50%;2022年标普指数跌约20%,比特币跌60%。在这些时期,投资标普的人也恐慌抛售。
If we look at the crashes from recent history, 2020 stocks fell by 30%. Bitcoin fell by 50%. 2022, stocks fell by 20 the S and P fell by about 20%. Bitcoin fell by 60%. So in those times, people who are in the S and P are freaking out, selling.
是的。但问题是,这是人们未能理解的风险回报比。假设你的投资期限是...比方说,标普500在熊市期间的平均回撤幅度是25%。
Yep. But here's the thing. This is the risk reward that people don't understand. If you've got a time horizon, let's say the average drawdown in the S and P during a a, yeah, a bear market is 25%.
回撤指的是下跌吗?
A drawdown being a drop?
幅度很大。对,就是下跌。价格下跌。而你最多只能获得每年15%的回报作为补偿。
A lot. Yeah. A drop. A drop in prices. You're getting compensated 15% a year returns for that at best.
比特币同期的平均回撤幅度约为70%。但你能获得150%的回报率。
In Bitcoin, the average drawdown over the same period will be about 70%. But you're getting a 150% return.
前提是你站在赢家这边。如果我买入后能以更高价卖出
If you're on the winning side, though. If I buy it and I can sell it
以更高的价格
for a higher price
持有。坚持持有就行。
hold it. Just hold it.
这就是关键所在。
That's the key.
所有这些都处于良好的趋势通道中。它们会上涨。所以任何人只要买入并持有足够长的时间,它就会上涨。
All of these are in a nice trend channel. They go up. So anybody can buy something and hold it long enough, it'll go up.
那么,让我们看看房地产市场。我们也可以对房地产说同样的话。2008年2月,房地产市场崩盘了。只要持有就好。但我负债太多了。
Well, what about well, let's look at housing. We could say the same thing about housing. 02/2008, housing crashed. Just hold it. I have too much debt.
我现在资不抵债。银行正在收回我的房子。人们正在用债务购买比特币。
I'm underwater. My bank's taking it from me. People are buying Bitcoin with debt.
我是说,那会
Mean, that would
2020年。我会
2020. I would
不建议那样做。但房地产不同,因为你可以无休止地建造更多房屋。而且我们在房地产方面存在一个人口结构问题,这使得情况更加复杂。人口结构问题是,a,现在每个人都在离开城市;b,代际差距。也许我们能负担得起婴儿潮一代的房子。
not recommend that. But housing's different because you can endlessly create more housing. And we have a demographic problem in housing that makes it more complicated. Demographic problem is, a, everyone's leaving the cities now b, the generational gap. Maybe we can afford the boomer houses.
我们缺乏面向年轻人的经济适用房。人们正在迁移、流动。因此,当前房地产市场出现了非常有趣的错配现象,使得情况比以往更加复杂。
We don't have enough cheap housing for young people. People are relocating, moving around. So we've got a very interesting mismatch in real estate now that makes it more complicated than it used to be.
完全同意。我确实想说,我们根本分歧不在于加密货币是否有价值。我持有加密货币。但你我的区别在于你全身心投入加密领域,而对我来说这只是投资组合中的投机部分。
Absolutely. And and and I do wanna say, I think the part that we fundamentally differ is not that there's value in crypto. I own crypto. But the difference between you and I is you are all in crypto. For me, it's a speculative piece of my portfolio.
所以我投资自己的企业。持有房地产、股票、投机性资产,还有少量黄金。
So I invest in my own business. I have real estate, stocks, my speculative assets, and then a little bit of gold.
想象一下,普通听众要复制你辉煌职业生涯的成就有多困难?相比之下,只需在Coinbase或Robinhood账户上买一样东西然后什么都不做。这完全没有成本。不像买房,不需要处理各种琐事,不涉及任何债务。
Imagine how difficult to replicate what you've achieved in your amazing career is for the average person listening to this versus buying one thing in your Coinbase account, your Robinhood account, and doing nothing. It's so there's no cost. It's not like buying a house. It's not like servicing all the stuff. There's no debt involved.
什么都不需要。
There's nothing.
理论上如此,但理论不等于现实。当市场下跌时有多少人最终亏损?特别是比特币投资者中有多少人会恐慌?如果我们观察比特币早期采用者,他们都是什么人?很多普通人只是想——我要发财。
In theory, but theory isn't reality. How many people end up losing money when things go down? How many people panic, especially with Bitcoin? Because if we look at especially the early adopters of Bitcoin, who are those people? These are the people that well, a lot a lot of the average person is, I wanna get rich.
我要快速致富。我想赚快钱。而投资标普500指数的普通人则是想长期投资积累财富。这是完全不同的心态。
I wanna get rich quick. It's I wanna make money fast versus the the average person who's buying the S and P 500, this is somebody who is, I want to invest and build wealth for the long term. It's a very different mindset.
这类投资者的平均年龄是32岁。我们曾说过,不,你需要进行长期投资。他们永远买不起房子,所以他们对未来自我的整个愿景被彻底摧毁了。
The average investor of this is 32 years old. We And said, no. You need to invest for the long run. They're never gonna have a house. So their their whole vision of their future selves is utterly destroyed.
但是你看,你说过
But look. You said
比特币从逻辑上讲确实需要承担更大风险。这对他们来说是合理的,因为他们已经没有什么可失去的了。
Bitcoin logical thing to actually take more risk. It's logical for them because they've nothing to lose.
所以你是说,比特币每年能有145%的收益。
So Bitcoin, you're saying, is a 145% a year.
是的。近年来随着采用率的增长趋势,这个数字可能已降至每年约100%。为了方便起见,我们就按这个算吧。
Yeah. And in recent years, as the trend rate of adoption grows, it's probably down to about a 100% a year. Let's call it that for easy
但现在让我们从长期实践的角度来思考。沃伦·巴菲特可以说是史上最伟大的投资者,几十年来他平均每年获得约19%的收益,这使他成为千亿级富豪。当我们把世界顶级投资者20%的回报率与'比特币每年能给你100%收益'相比较时...
But now let let's think about this just from a practical long term perspective. Warren Buffett is arguably the best investor in the history of time. He has averaged about 19% a year over the course of his decades, making him a multi, multi, multi billionaire. And so when we compare a 20% return from one of the top investors in the world versus, hey. Bitcoin is gonna give you a 100% a year.
这其中确实有些道理
There's there's some sense
通过我们什么都不做。所以即使我错了50%,你仍然能超越巴菲特。用
of By us doing nothing. So even if I'm wrong by 50%, you still outperform Buffett. To put
更直观的
it in
角度来看,比特币自2030年以来,我认为其回报率约为90000000%。在整个人类历史上,没有任何资产能在如此短的时间内创造如此巨大的财富。而且这不是随机现象,它实际上是一项技术,是一种网络技术模型。随着更多人使用这个网络——我们看到各国政府和资产管理公司都在购买比特币——这种网络采用模式就会形成。因此,它创造的图表与谷歌或亚马逊等公司类似,只是随着时间的推移沿着对数趋势上升,伴随着一些波动。
perspective, Bitcoin since 2030 has done, I think, it's about 90000000% returns. There's no asset in all human history that's ever generated as much wealth in the shortest period of time. And because it's not a random thing, it's actually a technology, and it's a network model of technology, as more people use the network and we see with Bitcoin, governments buying it and asset management firms buying it, everybody else, you have this network adoption model. And so what it creates is the same chart as Google or Amazon, all of these. It just goes up the log trend over time with some volatility.
所以你面对的是一个长期牛市,这意味着价格会因可衡量、可理解的原因随时间上涨。而它恰好是有史以来表现最佳的资产。
So you've got a secular bull market, which means that over time, prices go up for measurable, understandable reasons. And it happens to be the highest performing asset of all time.
但有一个问题。
There's one problem.
而且它波动剧烈。你完全说中了心理层面的问题——当它下跌70%时确实很难承受。我经历过三次这样的暴跌,非常煎熬。
And it's volatile. The psychological thing you're dead right about, it's very hard when it falls 70%. I've gone through three of those. They're hard.
问题在于,就像房地产一样,人们总说房地产只涨不跌。但你怎么通过房地产赚钱?你只有在卖出时才能赚钱,或者卖出时亏损。归根结底,比特币也是如此——你只有在卖出时才会盈利或亏损。
The problem is, just like with real estate, everyone has said real estate only goes up. Well, how do you make money on that real estate? You make money when you sell, or you lose money if you sell. Ultimately, this comes down to that. You make or lose money only if you sell.
那么,沿途的一切又该如何应对?如果我在那70%的暴跌中需要卖出怎么办?因为暴跌期间会发生什么?很多时候人们会失业,很多人会失去收入来源。
Well, what about everything along the way? And what if I need to sell during that 70% crash? Because what happens during those crashes? A lot of times people lose jobs. A lot of times people lose their income.
很多时候人们在那时需要那笔钱,所以我可能会变得绝望或恐慌。此时有两件事同时发生,也许末日来临,我进场后反而亏钱,原以为能大赚一笔。
A lot of times people need that money during that time, and so now I'm desperate or I'm panicking. There's there's two things happening, and now maybe it's the end, and I go in, and now I lose money, thinking that I'm going to make all this money.
我想我能理解你对加密货币的热爱和你100%投入加密货币的做法。我很喜欢说你是
I think I can appreciate your love for cryptocurrency and your 100% concentration in cryptocurrency. I love saying you're
深陷其中。
in it.
适合所有人,对吧?
Suitable for everybody. Right?
没错。
Right.
我已经满足了马斯洛需求层次理论的最底层需求。我有房子,没有债务。对我来说很容易,我有多个收入来源可以支撑。
I've got my the, you know, bottom of maslowed hierarchy of needs taken care of. I've got a house. I don't have debt. You know, it's easy for me. I've got multiple sources of income that I can take that back.
我不是说所有人都该这样,但我能理解为什么25岁的人也可能这么做,因为他们没什么可失去的。
I'm not saying that for everybody, but I can also understand why a 25 year old can do that too because they've got nothing to lose.
但你认为如果一个25岁的人把全部工资和积蓄投入比特币然后亏损了,假设他们经历了70%的暴跌,这是否也会让他们未来的处境更艰难?比如,也许之前还有一线希望他们能——
But do you think that if a 25 year old puts their entire salary and savings into Bitcoin and they lose it, let's say they run through a 70% drawdown, are they just putting themselves in a bigger hole for their future as well? Like, maybe before there was a glimmer of a chance that they could You know,
买套房子,但现在
they buy a house, but then now
他们做不到了。
they can't.
金融市场中最重要却最被误解的部分就是时间。
The most important part of financial markets that's the least understood is time.
是
It's
不只是价格,而是时间。所以如果你25岁就破产了,我们都经历过。我们都搞砸过,不得不搬回父母家或做其他妥协。我们都经历过。
not just price. It's time. So if you're 25 years old and you get wiped out, we've all done it. We've all kind of screwed up and had to move home to our parents or do whatever. We've all done it.
年轻时你可以这么做很多次,没关系。但到了50岁可千万别这样。真的,50岁时绝对不要。
You can do that several times when you're young, and it's okay. You just don't wanna do it At age 50. At age 50. Sure. You really, really don't.
一般来说,人会变得越来越规避风险。这取决于你所处的位置和承担风险的时间成本。但现在如果
You become more risk averse, generally speaking. Okay. It just depends where you are and how much time you've got to take that risk. But now if
我把钱投资比特币或其他任何标的时,其价值很大程度上是所谓的权益。比如我最初以3000美元买入比特币,那部分增值就是权益。这是看不见的钱,在我看来只是理论数字,并非银行账户里的真实资金。它只是待在那里,指望我卖出时能获利,而非现金流。
I'm investing my money in Bitcoin or really anything, a lot of the value is what some people refer to as equity. It's it's I bought it for like, started buying Bitcoin when it was $3,000 That other stuff is equity. It's invisible money, which, in my view, is theory. It's not actual money in my bank account. It's sitting there waiting for me hoping that when I go to sell, there's gonna be a profit versus cash flow.
嗯。
Mhmm.
如果我买分红股票
If I buy a dividend paying stock
什么是分红股票?
What's a dividend paying stock?
有些公司利润丰厚。比如麦当劳有数十亿美元利润,他们有三种处理方式:存钱应急、部分再投资开新店改进产品
Some companies have big profits. For example, McDonald's has billions of dollars of profits. There's are three things that they can do with that cash. They can save that money for an emergency. They can take some of that money and reinvest it and open more stores and create better burgers.
或者他们可以做的第三件事,有些公司会这么做,但不是全部,就是直接把钱分给投资者,也就是股东。这叫做股息。所以这是一种现金回报,仅仅因为持有这项投资就能获得。如果我买了某些东西,无论是ETF股票还是其他支付股息的投资,或者是一套每月或每年都能往我银行账户打钱的出租房产,这些钱我就可以用来购买食物、度假或做其他事情。因为让我告诉你——
Or the third thing that they can do, which some companies do, not all, is they can just give this money away to their investors, their shareholders. It's called a dividend. So it's a cash payment for doing nothing except owning that investment. So if I buy something, whether it's ETF stock or whatever that's paying a dividend or a rental property that's putting money in my bank account every single month or year, that's money I can use to buy food, go on a vacation, do something. Because here's what let me tell
你 你
you You're
能获得4%的收益。
getting paid 4%.
听着。谁在乎呢?我开始买比特币的时候,一枚才3000美元。当它涨到——我经历过多次暴跌。我记得比特币涨到2万美元时,大家欢呼‘天啊,我们成功了’。
Listen. I Who cares? I started buying Bitcoin at $3,000 a coin. When it was at I went through multiple crashes. I remember when $20,000 a Bitcoin was the, Oh my God, we did it.
当价格涨到大约7万美元时,我看着这一切说,哇,我有房地产、股票、投机性资产(包括加密货币和初创公司),还有2%的黄金——现在看起来黄金价格高得离谱。我需要降低这部分比例。这样我就能获得更多收入。所以我做了什么?我卖掉了一些比特币。
And once it hit around $70,000 I looked at this and I said, Wow, I have my real estate, my stocks, my speculative, which is crypto and startups, and then 2% gold, which is now looking extremely inflated. I need to lower this. That way I can have some more income. So what did I do? I sold some Bitcoin.
我买了出租房产。现在这套房产每月都会往我银行账户打钱。比特币在账面上是个大数字,但如果我不做些什么,它实际上毫无意义。
I bought rental properties. That now rental property is putting money in my bank account every single month. The Bitcoin, it's a big number on paper, but it doesn't actually mean anything unless I do something with it.
你本可以质押它,也就是质押加密货币从中获得月收益,你考虑过吗?
Could you have staked it, which means you can stake the cryptocurrency and make a monthly yield from it?
我用它来贷款。
I Get a loan against it.
这就在增加风险了。那么,如果我贷80%或70%的款会发生什么。让我们...对,就80%贷款吧。
Now that's adding risk. Well, what happened into if I take a 80% loan 70% loan. Let's let's yeah. 80% loan.
是的。这非常不稳定。
Yeah. It's it's very volatile.
你可以...那我们假设贷50%的款,而比特币跌了70%,这种情况确实发生过。那我就资不抵债了。接下来呢?银行就会上门催债,要求追加保证金,你被迫抛售,最后就是强制平仓。
You can So let's take let's take a 50% loan, and Bitcoin falls by 70%, which it has. Now I'm underwater. Now what? Now the bank comes knocking on the door, margin call, you're forced to sell, and it's a foreclosure
我的意思是
My point being
关于我的比特币。
on my Bitcoin.
我是说,我并不反对。实际上,人们应该有能力在出问题时拥有现金流或现金储备,对吧?这确实是非常重要的一点——要有长期视角,能坦然面对下跌,能投资初创企业,能投资加密货币或科技等等。这些都很合理。
I mean, I don't disagree. And really speaking, people should have the ability to have cash flow or cash for if things go wrong. Right? That's really a super important thing to be able to have a long term view, to be comfortable with drawdowns, to be able to invest in startups, to to invest in crypto or technology and all of this stuff. That makes sense.
但我认为4%的分红对任何人都无足轻重。
But I just don't think a dividend of 4% makes any difference to anybody.
如果持之以恒,月复一月,年复一年地执行,效果就不同了。
Well, it does if you do it consistently, month after month, year after year.
需要巨额初始资本才能值得投入。
Need huge capital to start with to be worthwhile.
不。如果你开始为股息收入投资,我称之为十年牺牲期,正因如此才格外艰难。
No. If if you if you start investing for dividend income I called it a decade of sacrifice, and this is why it's so hard.
是啊。但如果你现在33岁,就要牺牲到43岁。
Yeah. But if you're 33 years old now, you'll sacrifice until you're 43.
你总会迎来43岁。想象那时已有收入支付车贷房贷,无需忧虑。你是更愿意寄望于比特币,还是更想要稳定保障?重申我的观点:比特币高风险高回报,并非建议完全不买。
You're going to become 43 at some point. And imagine if you're 43 and now you have the income to pay for that car, to pay for the house, you don't have to worry about it. Well, do you want to have hope that you have the Bitcoin, or would you rather have more security? Again, Bitcoin, in my perspective, high risk, high potential return. And I'm not saying don't buy it.
确实。
No.
我的建议是,在你的投资组合中分配资产时,要明白你堪称是全球顶尖的加密货币专家之一。而我并非如此。我也不是股票专家,更不是房地产专家。对于我不懂的领域,我很可能会犯错。
I'm saying allocate it in your portfolio in a way where you understand you are arguably one of the top crypto experts in the world. I'm not. I also am not the stock expert in the world. I'm also not the real estate expert in the world. What I don't I'm probably gonna be wrong.
如果我的股票崩盘,我还有房地产。如果房地产崩盘,我还有股票。至于崩盘嘛,那只是我投机组合的一部分。我其实并不在意。如果所有资产都崩盘,我还有些黄金。
If my stocks crash, I have my real estate. If real estate crashes, I got my stocks. Crashes, well, that's part of my speculative portfolio. I really don't care. And if everything crashes, I got some gold.
因此对我来说,我必须通过多元化投资来对冲风险,因为我知道股票会崩盘,加密货币会崩盘,房地产也会崩盘。
So for me, I have to diversify against myself because I know stocks crash. I know crypto crashes. I know real estate crashes.
但如果你起步资金不多,你的策略就是富人的策略。什么我有房产、有股息、有黄金、还有各种投资。那是大银行的策略。
But if you're not starting with a lot of money, your your strategy is the strategy of a rich person. Oh, I've got houses, and I've got dividends, and I've got some gold, and I've got a bit of this. That's the strategy of big banks.
从单一资产开始积累。我最初根本没有这些,起步时只有一种资产。
Start with all those. I didn't start with all those at all. I started with one.
那你大部分财富是怎么积累的?通过创业。你在做什么?承担巨大风险。
And where did you make most of your money? Being an entrepreneur. What were you doing? Taking obscene risk.
确实如此。那就是我。本应如此
I did. That was me. Meant to
说实话,这是在冒极大的风险。
be honest. Taking obscene risk.
但如果我年收入5万美元,假设现在第一步我每年存下5000到7000美元。我可以选择高风险高回报,或保守策略,或两者兼顾。并非所有人都该承担全部风险,因为比特币本身有风险。尽管我持有比特币,但政府可能突然出台政策改变比特币的规则。
But if I'm making $50,000 a year, the first step let's assume now I'm putting $5,000 aside, $7,000 aside a year. I can take high risk, high potential return, or I can be conservative or a hybrid. And not everybody should be taking all the risk because there's Bitcoin has risks. And, again, I'm telling you to somebody who owns it. The government could come in and change policies on Bitcoin.
量子计算可能颠覆比特币,人们也可能对比特币失去兴趣。如果这些情况发生,而我的全部资金都押在这个高度投机性资产上,承担所有风险的将是我自己。
Quantum could change Bitcoin. People could stop caring about Bitcoin. And if any of those things happen and all my money is in this very speculative asset, I'm the one that's carrying all the risk.
那么如果有人有1000美元可支配收入用于投资,汉弗莱,你会建议他们怎么做?
So if you if someone has $1,000 in disposable income to invest, what would what would you suggest they did, Humphrey?
我对1000美元投资的看法这些年有所改变。以前我会说可以投资,但正如劳尔可能提到的,1000美元的10%收益并不多。比如你投资标普500获得10%收益,第二年变成1100美元——这100美元不会彻底改变你的生活。
My take on $1,000 has has changed over the years. I used to say you could invest $1,000 but as as Raoul probably mentioned, 10% on $1,000 is not that much. Right? So if you invest $1,000 in the S and P five hundred, you get 10%. Next year, you'll have $1,100 That $100 is not going to change your life dramatically.
所以如果我有1000美元,我会投资于自我提升,通过增强技能来争取未来赚更多钱。
So if I had a thousand dollars, I'm investing in myself, so trying to improve my skills to make more money at some point.
具体你会怎么做呢?
How exactly would you do that?
在我起步阶段时,我尝试在网上学习许多课程。我努力掌握各种能在市场上运用的技能。比如早年我花150美元参加了谷歌AdWords课程,学会了如何操作谷歌广告,之后便尝试为企业提供咨询服务,以此赚取额外的小时收入。
When I was still coming up, I was trying to take a lot of courses online. So I tried to figure out different types of skills that I could that I could use in the marketplace. So I took a AdWords course back in the day for, like, a $150 that taught me how to do Google AdWords, and I would try to consult for for businesses out there to try to make more of an hourly income on the side.
对于不了解的人说明一下,谷歌AdWords就是谷歌的广告投放平台。没错。
And Google AdWords, for anyone that doesn't know, is Google's advertising platform. Yeah.
是的。现在还有TikTok广告和Facebook广告。但只要能给其他企业创造更多价值,我就明白从经济学角度而言,自己在市场上能获得更高回报。类似这样的技能就非常理想。
Yeah. And now there's TikTok ads and Facebook ads. But, you know, anywhere where I could be more value to another business, I knew that, economically speaking, that I could command more in the marketplace. Something with that like that would be great.
但显然现在这个领域就是AI。因为你刚才描述的情况就像利用新技术进行知识套利——当年大多数人不懂AdWords时,你可以作为年轻人填补认知鸿沟。如今如果企业能掌握AI基础,运营效率将大幅提升。没错,年轻人完全可以选修AI课程。
But So right now, clearly, that is AI. Because what what you saw there is like a knowledge arbitrage with a new technology where most people didn't didn't understand AdWords, and you could be the young guy bridging the gap for people's ignorance. So most businesses now would be dramatically more efficient and effective if they understood even the basics of AI. Yeah. So a a kid could take a a course in AI.
知道最疯狂的是什么吗?只要读完AI领域的十大经典著作,你的知识储备就能超过全球99%的人。
And do you know what's crazy? If you read the top 10 books on AI, you'd be in the top 1% in the world in terms of knowledge.
确实。光是研读ChatGPT或Quad的操作手册,你很可能就能跻身顶尖1%的提示词工程师行列。这种能力对企业或服务来说就是价值所在,对吧?
Yeah. I mean, if you just read the instruction manual of how ChatGPT or, you know, Quad works, you you could probably be in the top, you know, 1% of prompt engineers. Right? And that could be a that could be a value to a business or service. Right?
所以
So
我的职业生涯大概就是这么开始的,我们这群18、19、20岁的年轻人懂社交媒体。嗯。因为我们一直在捣鼓这些东西。所以我们就把它卖给公司。
That's probably where my career came from, was we were the kids, 18, 19, 20 years old that knew social media Mhmm. Because we'd messed around with it. So we sold it to companies.
没错。
Right.
就这样我创立了第一家公司,后来很快就有...是的,发展到几百人的规模。
And that started my first business, and then there was Yeah. Soon hundreds of us.
现在有很多这类应用都是18、19、20岁的年轻人开发的。你看到那个开发CalAI的家伙的报道了吗?CalAI是个这样的应用:你拍张食物照片,然后传给AI,它就能告诉你里面有多少卡路里。这家伙年收入5000万美元左右。
And there's there's a lot of these apps right now coming out from 18, 19, 20 year olds. Have you seen that one profile of that guy who created CalAI? CalAI is this this app where you take a photo of your food, and then, you know, it sends it to to AI, and it tells you how many calories are in it. Well, the guy's making $50,000,000 a year or whatever it is.
对,说来也巧,今早刚看到。他每月能赚400万美元,就靠一个...
Yeah. I saw that this morning, funnily enough. $4,000,000 a month he's making from a
就像Chad那样,本质上是个AI说唱歌手,显然的。我觉得他可能有些...你知道的,独门秘方。但现在很多年轻人都在尝试用AI作为杠杆来创业。不过我想说,按照Jaspreet说的1000美元理论,只要能有稳定收入,通过慢慢储蓄投资,还是能实现某种程度的退休保障。你完全可以在不把所有积蓄押注加密货币的情况下,实现财务自由退休。
Like Chad basically, it's an AI rapper, obviously. I think he has some, you know, secret sauce that he puts into it. But a lot of a lot of kids these days are using AI to try to leverage that and and try to turn turn them into businesses. I do want to say, though, I think with 1,000 and with what Jaspreet said, I think you can still make a decent if you can make a decent income, you can start to slowly save and invest your way to some sort of semblance of retirement. I think you can still be able to retire and be financially independent without having to, let's say, bet your life savings on on crypto.
我本人100美元时就买过比特币,但买卖过很多次...你知道,当涨了10倍时就会想:'要是一开始就告诉我能有10倍收益,我肯定当场套现'。对吧?嗯。所以这才是最难的地方。
I know that I personally bought Bitcoin at a $100, but I've sold it many you know, I bought and resold it so many times because, you know, when it's up 10 x, you're like, oh, like, know, if if you were giving me a 10 x return when I first bought it, I was like, yeah. I'm taking that any day of the week. Right? Mhmm. And so I think that's why it's so hard.
就像,比特币自2012年以来确实带来了145倍的回报,但在2012年,没人知道怎么买。我是在某个可疑的网站上买的。我拿到了这个,你知道的,这个钱包里的一串字符,然后我试图在帕洛阿尔托的一家咖啡馆买杯咖啡。我不知道比特币交易需要30分钟才能完成,所以我为一杯5美元的咖啡发送了两次比特币。要知道,这可是0.1个比特币。对吧?
It's like, Bitcoin does produce 145 return since 2012, but in 2012, no one knew how to buy I bought it on some random sketchy website. I got this, like, you know, this this string of characters from my wallet, and I I try to buy, you know, I try to buy a coffee at a cafe in Palo Alto. And I didn't know that Bitcoin transactions took thirty minutes to go through, So I sent Bitcoin twice for a $5 coffee. Now keep in mind, this is point one Bitcoins. Right?
这相当于价值1万美元的比特币。
This is 10 k worth of coins. Bitcoin.
是啊,这杯咖啡可真贵。
Yeah. It's an expensive coffee.
我发送了两次,然后
I sent it twice, and
他们没收到。
they didn't get it.
你猜怎么着?我还是得用借记卡付那杯咖啡的钱。所以我的钱到底
And guess what? I still had to pay for the coffee with my debit card. So where do I have
去哪儿了?花了大概2万美元在
a money go? Spent, what, 20 k on
我花了2万
I spent 20 k
在咖啡上。是的。
on coffee. Yeah.
这可以成为这个视频的标题。
That could be the title of this video.
这就是这个视频的内容。
This is what this video.
花了2万在咖啡上。是的。我真的...我把它送到了帕洛阿尔托的Coupa Cafe,如果有人想去那里的话。我认为从心理学角度来说,普通人
Spent 20 k on coffee. Yeah. I literally was I I sent it to Coupa Cafe in Palo Alto, if anyone wants to go there. I think the average person, psychologically speaking
它稳住了。
It's held.
当它下跌80%时,心理上真的很难承受。如果Jaspreet说你需要钱,那一刻你肯定会卖掉它。
It's really hard when it goes down 80%. And if Jaspreet says you need money, like, at that moment, you're gonna sell it.
但你的观点,我指的是,首要重要的是收入。是的。我是说,我们上次在播客里也讨论过这个问题。就像,如何用同样的技能以不同方式赚更多钱?比如,我大学毕业时听到的故事是和我父亲的一个朋友聊天。
But your your point about I mean, the primarily important thing is income. Yes. I mean and that and we talked about it last time I was on the podcast. It's like, how do you just leverage the same skills in different ways that you can earn more money from it? Like, the story I was told when I left university was speaking to a friend of my dad's.
他当时问,你打算做什么?我父亲从事市场营销,我也喜欢这行。那是八十年代末,华尔街风头正劲。我说,我在考虑要么去像玛氏这样的公司做市场营销,你知道的,很棒的公司,要么去伦敦金融城工作。那人看着我说,很简单,拉胡尔。
He was like, well, what are you gonna do? And my father was in marketing, and I liked marketing. And but it was like late eighties Wall Street thing was going on. And I'm like, well, I'm thinking about either going to work for somebody like Mars, do marketing, you know, great company, or go and work in the city in London. And the guy looked at me and said, it's really simple, Rahul.
这两份工作本质相同。你都是在做销售。区别在于,一份工作你能免费吃到玛氏巧克力棒,另一份能免费拿到钱。然后你就明白,哦,原来同样的技能组合存在套利空间。
It's the same job. You're a salesman in both. One, you get free Mars bars. And the other, you get free money. And you realize, oh, there's actually arbitrage in what you can do with the same skill set.
嗯。我觉得有道理。我同意。如果是我有1000美元,我会拿去投资自己增加收入,读些书,做该做的事,开始创业,因为这笔钱足够了。但若从时间维度看,1000美元的复利收益也相当可观。
Mhmm. Well, I would say there is a point. So I agree. If it was me with $1,000 I'm gonna go out and invest in my income, read some books, get whatever I gotta do, go start something because that's enough. But if we look at time, a thousand dollars compounded is decent.
如果追溯到1971年
If I if you go back 1971
但我的助学贷款、房子首付怎么办?我还想结婚生子。你是说要我再等二十年才能实现这些吗?
But how do I pay for my college loan and my house deposit, and I wanna get married and have kids? You're telling me I can't do that for another twenty years.
如果1971年投入1000美元到标普500指数,之后不再追加投资。我继续工作,除了最初那1000美元再没投过一分钱。算上股息再投资,现在这笔钱大约值33万美元。为什么?因为从1971年至今,标普500年均增长率略超10%。
If I took a thousand dollars in 1971, I invested that into the S and P five hundred, and I did nothing else. I keep doing whatever I'm doing, my job, and I only invest $1,000 and I never invested another penny again. Today, that would be worth, if I reinvested my dividends, about $330,000 And I never invested another penny after the first $1,000 investment. Why? Because the S and P five hundred has grown by a little bit over 10% a year from 1971 to now.
这确实是个问题。现在想象一下,如果我每年投资1000美元。每月一千美元。但我不能这样谈论比特币,因为五十年前比特币还不存在。二十五年前也没有比特币。
It's something. Now imagine if I invested $1,000 a year. A thousand dollars a month. Now I can't say that about Bitcoin because Bitcoin didn't exist fifty years ago. I can't say that about Bitcoin because Bitcoin didn't exist twenty five years ago.
那么亚马逊呢?亚马逊的情况如何?
And so How about Amazon? What about Amazon?
亚马逊是在2000年开始交易的,更不用说Facebook了,它2012年2月才上市。
That's that started trading in 2000 or even better, Facebook, 02/2012.
我怎么知道?
How do I know?
因为它存在时间不够长就不投资吗?它没有黄金存在的时间长?我是说,Facebook存在的时间比比特币还短,亚马逊的时间更短。
Invest in it because it wasn't around? It hasn't been around as long as gold? I mean, it's been Facebook has been around less than Bitcoin has Amazon shorter time.
它能创造利润。它有你能看到和感受到的实际价值,因为我可以上亚马逊订购一套全新的鳄梨酱制作工具,两小时内就能送到。
Creates a profit. It has a tangible value that you can see and feel because I can go on to Amazon and order myself Amazon brand new guacamole set. They'll be there in two hours.
直到2018年才实现首次盈利,对吧?
Make a single profit until, what, 2018?
嗯,但那并不是因为他们没有创造价值,而是因为他们增长得过于激进。
Well, but that wasn't that wasn't because they weren't producing a value. It's because they were growing so aggressively.
所以你认为如果你有一千美元,你应该投资标普500指数吗?
So you think if you had a thousand dollars, you should you should invest it in the S and P 500?
我并不是说你必须这么做。我认为个人理财是个性化的。如果是我,如果我额外有一千美元并且正在摸索阶段,我会去买些书,报个课程,做些能提升收入的事情——回到你刚才说的。但如果我只想做好本职工作,不想额外折腾,我会把一半投入标普500,另一半投资个股。这样风险高于标普500,但低于比特币。我这样选择是因为这符合我的兴趣。
Well, I'm not saying you should. I think personal finance is personal. I think if it was me, if I have a thousand dollars extra and I'm just trying to figure things out, I'm gonna go buy some books, I'm gonna buy a class, I'm gonna do something about how do I increase my income, going back to what you But if I'm saying I just wanna work my job, I don't wanna go out and do all that, I would do half into the S and P 500, and I would go half into individual companies. So more risk than the S and P 500, not as much risk as the Bitcoin. And the reason why I would do this is because this is something I enjoy.
我喜欢研究的过程,而且我明白这可能带来回报,就像你提到的亚马逊、微软等案例那样,存在潜力。
I like that research side of things, and I understand this is something that I could see returns with like you talked about Amazon, like you talked about Microsoft and whoever. There's potential.
汉弗莱,你呢?如果有1万美元,你的策略会改变吗?
And what about you, Humphrey? $10,000, does your strategy change?
我的策略可能更保守或传统些:90%投入跟踪标普500的指数基金,10%用于投机。我对那个25岁年轻人的建议是尽快积累到10万美元,因为那时他们会有更多选择和灵活性,也能利用这笔资本承担更高风险。
My strategy is a little probably more conservative or traditional. It's probably 90% index funds. So tracking the S and P 500 and then 10% speculative. And my whole goal for that 25 year old would probably be to get to a $100,000 as quickly as possible because at that point, I think they have more options, flexibility, and they're able to kind of use that capital to maybe take more risk after,
假设标普500的收益率还是10%...好吧,标普500的八年期收益率是8%
let's say That's still 10 with the S and P well, eight years of the S
标普500指数七年八四个月。是的。但这假设他们每年只存101万美元。也许他们能节省并投资更多一些。
and P. Seven point eight four years. Yeah. But that also assumes that they're only doing the $1,010,000 bucks a year. Maybe they they can save and invest a little bit more.
那会很不错。但我认为对许多美国人来说,如果能在七年八四个月内确保获得10万美元,我想很多人可能会选择这个方案。
That'd be nice. But I think for a lot of people in America, if they can get a guaranteed $100,000 in seven point eight four years, I I think a lot of people might opt for that.
所以我同意,但我会去掉标普500。你只做加密货币吗?不,我只做纳斯达克。
So I agree, but I'd remove the S and P. You do all crypto? No. I just do Nasdaq.
哦,对。你做纳斯达克。
Oh, yeah. You do Nasdaq.
纳斯达克复合增长率18%。纳斯达克是什么?纳斯达克100指数是美国顶尖科技股的集合。对吧?我们生活的世界明天注定比今天更数字化。因此这些股票往往表现最佳。
So Nasdaq compounds at 18% What a is Nasdaq? The Nasdaq is the Nasdaq 100, which is the top technology stocks in The United States. Right? We live in a world that tomorrow will be more digital than today, guaranteed. And so therefore, these stocks tend to generate the most performance.
我们讨论过其中许多公司。它们全在纳斯达克。所以有个小套利策略:如果你想将七年八个月缩短到五年半或六年,就买纳斯达克100ETF。零成本。
And we've talked about many of these names. That is all in the NASDAQ. So a little arbitrage is, if you want to shorten your seven point eight years to five and a half years, six years, buy the NASDAQ 100. It's an ETF. Zero cost.
很简单。然后我会建议70%配置这个,30%配置加密货币,这样你就不用操心其他事了。如果你风险承受能力不同,可以调整比例。若更厌恶风险,就增加现金比例或其他更稳定的资产,比如黄金。
Easy. And then I would say and then do 70% of that, 30% crypto, and you don't have to care about anything. You're fine. Now, if you have a different risk tolerance, you can tweak those dials. Or if you are more risk averse, then you up your cash dial or some other more stable flow, whether it's gold.
尽管黄金仍受货币贬值驱动,但它们本质相同。都由相同的宏观因素驱动。所以,是的,类似的概念。
Although gold is still driven by debasement of currency, they're all the same thing. They're all driven by the same macro factors. But so, yeah, similar kind of idea.
纳斯达克表现很棒,凯文。我只想说一点。就像比特币一样,18%涨幅的难点在于你必须愿意承受下跌。我想确保这一点讲清楚,因为我是说,那次大暴跌,2000年。纳斯达克从峰值下跌了78%。
And the Nasdaq is great, Kevin. I'd just say one thing. But just like with Bitcoin, the difficult part with the 18% is you gotta be willing to go through the downturns. And I wanna make sure that that's clear because, I mean, the big drop, 2,000. The Nasdaq fell by 78% from its peak.
在此期间,标普五百指数下跌了40%。所以跌幅更大。更不用说,纳斯达克直到2015年才恢复原有水平,整整十五年颗粒无收。
During that time, the S and P five hundred fell by 40%. So it's a bigger drop. Not to mention, the Nasdaq didn't get to its level until twenty fifteen, fifteen years later of no money.
但它的累计回报仍然超过标普指数。
It has still compounded more returns than the S and P.
完全正确。如果你坚持持有
Absolutely. If you held on You
你无法在
can't live
连年亏损中度过人生。
your life in years of loss.
下跌。
The drop.
百分之百。
100%.
关键在于风险调整后的回报与收益之间的对比。
It's got to be in the risk adjusted returns versus the gains.
但有多少人能坚持十五年,第一年说没事,第二年还行,第三年、第五年,总会涨的。第十年,肯定会涨。而且第十年又遇到一次崩盘,因为
But how many people can hold on for fifteen years and say, year one, no big deal. Year two, okay. Year three, year five, it's gonna go up. Year 10, it's gonna go up. And by the way, year 10 was also another crash because
你只需要定期定额投资就行。
All you have to do is dollar cost average.
那是什么?
What's that?
定期定额投资就是,如果你年轻,现在手头有点闲钱,比如收入略有结余,与其一次性全投进去,或者你确实投入了一大笔,比如攒下的1万美元。但现在你每月可能有500美元的自由资金想存入储蓄。这样在市场下跌时你持续买入,长期来看会摊薄平均成本,你的投资组合会比市场更早创出新高。比如在2022年加密货币下行周期里,我做的就是尽可能多买入加密货币。
So dollar cost averaging is if you're young and you're you've got a bit of excess cash now, you know, you've sold your income a little bit, as opposed to just chucking everything in, or you do, you put your large sum in, you've saved up your $10. But now, you've got maybe $500 a month of free capital that you want to put into your savings. So when you have these drawdowns, you actually keep buying. And what happens is it lowers your average cost over time, and you get to new all time highs in your portfolio much before the market does. So for example, in the last crypto down cycle in 'twenty two, in 'twenty two, all I did was add as much as I could to my crypto.
所以我的投资组合在市场整体达到新高之前就已经创下历史新高,因为我降低了平均入场成本。这种做法会随着时间的推移让利润以惊人的速度复利增长。
So I was at new all time highs in my portfolio well before the market was because I'd lowered my average entry. That compounds your profits over time incredibly.
这是否存在某种心理机制——当你养成无论发生什么都坚持每月投入500美元的习惯时
And is there something psychological there where if you commit to the habit of just putting $500 in regardless of what happens
你消除了情绪干扰。
You remove emotion.
你从中剥离了一部分情绪因素。
You remove a bit of emotion from it.
而情绪正是人们最难克服的。如果你投资波动性更大的标的,首先要明白市场下跌时你会遭遇更大幅度的回撤。通常这些标的都是高度联动的——同涨同跌。但如果你告诉自己'这反而是我的优势,因为可以逢低加仓',这个认知差异就是造就财富的秘密法则,复利的魔力。
And the emotion is the thing that people struggle with. If you're investing in things that are more volatile, you firstly understand that you will see larger drawdowns when markets go down. Usually, they're all correlated. They all go down at the same time, all up at the same So you're going to do that. But if you tell yourself, that's an advantage for me because I can buy more, That's a secret hack that makes people fortunes, compounding.
这就是巴菲特的核心理念。我完全赞同。熊市诞生的伟大企业比牛市更多,因为...
This is Warren Buffett's thing. 100% agree with that. More companies in a bear market than in a bull market because
我同意。
I agree.
确实如此。我完全同意那部分观点。我称之为恐慌性抛售。恐慌导致过度卖出,进而带来机会,最终转化为利润。所以我赞同这一点,但这需要特定水平的财务素养。
It it yeah. I well, I will 100% agree with that part. I call it poop. Panic leads to overselling, leads to opportunity, leads to profit. So I am on board with that, but that requires a specific level of financial sophistication.
不。即便是你的Coinbase应用也...
No. Even your Coinbase app can just can
看,还有定期定额投资法。是的。但有多少人能忍受资产缩水70%的情况下坚持定投十五年等待反弹?
see And dollar cost average. Yeah. But how many people can dollar cost average down 70% for fifteen years waiting to see that
不是十五年跌70%,而是一年内暴跌70%之后便连年上涨。之后每一年都持续攀升。
It wasn't 70% in fifteen years. It was it was 70% in one year and then rallied ever since. Every single year after year after year, it went up.
所以你认为只有一年?不。2008年股灾后,纳斯达克指数跌幅实际上超过了标普500。
And so you had one year? No. After the 2008 crash, the Nasdaq also again crashed more than the S and P five hundred.
然后退一步看纳斯达克的长期回报率。
And then step back and look at the returns of the Nasdaq first.
我同意。长期来看这是很棒的投资,但波动性对普通人来说很难承受——他们既缺乏情绪管理能力,也不具备理解百分比跌幅所需的财务知识。
I agree. Over the long term, it's a great investment, but volatility is hard for the average person who doesn't have the emotional IQ and the financial sophistication to understand the dollar percentage.
教育他们。是的。我们的职责是在这段旅程中帮助人们,而不是让他们做出损害未来的决定。我们必须帮助他们。
To educate them. Yes. Our job is to help people in this journey and not get them to make decisions that compromise their future. We have to help them.
我同意。
I agree.
而风险调整后的回报和时间跨度是最重要的两件事。
And risk adjusted returns and time horizon are two of the single most important thing.
所以,我听到的是,纵观历史,逆向投资者赚得最多。而且,我认为从你们刚才所说的中,我还提炼出一点:你需要建立一个消除情绪、避免决策的系统。因为正是在做决策时,你大脑的情绪中枢——杏仁核——会做出糟糕的决定。我认为这种自我意识正是从你们的话中显现出来的,即:好吧,我的大脑会恐慌。
And so what I hear I mean, through history, contrarians have made the most money. And, also, I think one the other thing that I've really pulled out from what you both were just saying there is you need to set up a system that removes emotion and requires you to not make decisions. Because it's in making decisions that your amygdala, the emotional center of your brain, is gonna do make a bad one. And it's that I think that that self awareness emerges from what you're both saying, which is, okay. My brain is going to panic.
它会崩溃或像你刚才说的那样,而我需要
It's gonna poop or whatever you were talking about there, and I need
一个能抵御恐慌的系统。你知道美国表现最好的经纪账户是那些已故人士的吗?这是真的。这是一个公认的事实,因为他们什么都不做。这些账户未被关闭,处于非活跃状态。
a system which is panic proof. So you know that the best performing brokerage accounts in The United States are dead people. That's true. It's a known fact because they don't do anything. So they have these accounts that haven't been closed, and they're inactive.
它们的表现超过了所有活跃的投资者。
They outperform all the active people.
你的投资组合100%都是加密货币。没错。所以你坐在这里一定在想,当我提出那个关于1万美元的问题时——如果有人有1万美元应该怎么做?你肯定认为正确答案是投入加密货币。
You are a 100% in crypto in terms of your investment portfolio. Yeah. So you must be sat here thinking that, actually, when I asked that $10,000 question, what what what would should someone do with $10,000? You must be thinking that the right answer is to put it into crypto.
对我来说,正确答案正如他所言。
The right answer for me is that to his point.
但你看,我是说...
But you've I mean, look,
实际上我想说,要知道,观众容易产生误解。是的,答案是我们被赐予了有史以来表现最卓越的资产礼物。这不只是比特币,而是整个加密生态体系。
I I actually would say but, you know, this is it's an audience of people and people misinterpret things. Yes. The answer is we've been given the gift of the greatest performing asset the world has ever been given. That's not just Bitcoin. It's the the crypto complex.
如果谨慎投资顶级项目,你甚至可以构建更分散的投资组合。以太坊、Solana、SUI这些优质项目,它们必定会在特定周期内跑赢大盘。这基于我们讨论过的宏观经济因素——货币贬值,所有加密资产都会相应上涨,其中部分表现尤为突出。
If you're very careful in investing in, like, top projects, you can even have a broader diversified portfolio of that. You've had Ethereum, Solana, SUI, all of these things, great. They will definitely outperform for a period of time. And that's based on macroeconomic factors, which is the debasement of currency, which we've talked about. That means all of these assets go up by a certain amount, and some outperform it.
能持续跑赢货币贬值的只有两种资产:纳斯达克指数和加密货币。这是可观测、可量化的长期趋势。因此这不是投机资产,而是遵循梅特卡夫定律的 adoption 模型。比特币是货币/抵押层的革新(我们称之为数字黄金),而其他加密资产则是互联网的新基建。
The only two assets that outperform the debasement of currency is the NASDAQ and crypto. This has been a persistent trend that is observable and measurable. So this is not a speculative asset. What it is is a Metcalfe Law adoption model. Bitcoin is the adoption of, let's say, a money or collateral layer, like gold, digital gold, we'll call it, while the rest of crypto is the new rails for the Internet.
这是科技领域的投资。其 adoption 速度是互联网同期的两倍——自互联网前500万IP地址和加密钱包前500万用户时期就是如此。这种 adoption 速度使其成为人类史上最快的技术普及案例,直到现在才被AI超越。
So it's a tech technological investment. It is growing at twice the speed of the Internet in terms of adoption and has been since the first 5,000,000 IP addresses for the Internet and the first 5,000,000 wallets. Twice the speed of the Internet makes it the fastest adoption of any technology the world has ever seen, aside from AI now, which is now outpacing it.
如果二十年后我们还坐在这里
If if we sit here in twenty years' time
是啊。
Yeah.
而你是错的。是啊。你觉得发生了什么?
And you were wrong Yeah. What happened, do you think?
首先,在投资方面,一旦你有了高度确信的赌注,你的全部工作就是质疑自己,而不是不断肯定自己。当然,你通过质疑最终确认,然后你就明白了。如果这不是真的,会发生什么?人工智能会创造出一套新的货币体系。
Well, firstly, in terms of investments, you have to always once you have a high conviction bet, your entire job is to question yourself, not to keep reaffirming yourself. Sure. You end up reaffirming by questioning, and then you you figure it out. For it not to have been true, what would have happened? The AI would have had a new system of money that it created.
必须有一个竞争者出现,因为我们现在处于国家博弈中。中东国家、亚洲国家、美国都在争取掌握这项技术,还有南美国家。所以现在是国家间的博弈,地缘政治。这是现实。
This there has to be a competitor to this because we're now in the game of nation. Nations are acquiring this, the Middle East nations, nations in Asia, The US wants to acquire it. And we've got South American nations. So it's now the game of nations, geopolitics. This is a real thing.
但二十年后会有什么变化?二十年后,我们将处于一个截然不同的世界。经济引擎由机器人和无限智能驱动。我们不知道经济机器如何运作,甚至不知道在那个世界里货币的价值是什么。
But what changes in twenty years' time? Well, in twenty years' time, we're in a very different world. The economic engine is driven by robots and infinite intelligence. We don't know how the economic machine works. We don't even know what the value of money is when we go into that world.
我之前提到过这个,经济奇点超越2030年2月。经济模型崩溃了。通常经济增长取决于人口增长——有多少人参与经济或即将加入经济、出生率、他们创造的产出,以及债务增长是另一个杠杆。现在整个西方世界加上日本和中国的人口都在老龄化。所以人口增长率的变化正在缩小。
So I've talked about this before, the economic singularity past 02/1930. The economic model breaks down. So the economy generally grows by a measure of population growth, how many people are in the economy or coming into the economy or being born productivity, how much output they create and then debt growth is the other lever. What's happened here is the population of the entire Western world plus Japan plus China has been aging. So the rate of change of population growth is shrinking.
他们尝试过移民政策,但后来在政治上变得不可接受,所以停止了。于是经济增速放缓,GDP增长逐渐下降,生产力也是如此,老年人生产的东西更少了。
They tried immigration, but that became politically unacceptable. So that stopped. So you've got this slowing economy. GDP growth has been slowing over time. Productivity, old people make less things.
因此经济产出减少。我们陷入这种困境,同时背负着债务。我们在2008年2月彻底停摆了整个经济引擎,现在需要偿还这些债务。这就是我们所在的系统现状。所以我们通过印钞来偿还债务,因为经济体无法产生足够的产出。
So it makes less economic output. So we've got this mess, then we've got this debt. And we've stopped that whole engine in 02/2008, and we need to service this debt. So Okay, so that's the system we're in. And this is why we're printing money to service this debt, because we're not generating enough output in the economy.
但1930年2月之后,人口结构发生变化。我们拥有了无限的人工智能人口。
But after 02/1930, this population part changes. We've got infinite artificial humans.
你是指AI智能体和机器人技术吗?
You're talking about AI agents and robotics?
没错,无限量供应。这会如何影响那个公式的乘数——人口增长加生产力增长加债务增长?这个公式会被打破,因为当大量AI智能体通过机器人创造经济活动时,GDP可能实现20%的增长。
Yeah. Infinite. So what does that do for that that the multiplier of that formula, population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth? It breaks because you can have 20% GDP growth because you've had a huge rise in the number of AI agents creating economic activity in robots.
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那对于像我这样的普通人意味着什么?
And so what does that mean for for me as a average person?
在我看来,经济体系将开始变革。我们将进入丰饶世界,但不知道什么才有价值。作为人类,我们需要转型重塑,变得更像'人',因为AI和机器人无法成为人类。我们必须解决所有这些问题。
For me, it's like the economic system starts changing. We get to this world of abundance. We don't know what has value. What we as humans do, we we we change and retool to become more humans because AI and robots can't be humans. So we have to figure all of this stuff out.
投资。我们之前讨论过这个。问题是,AGI(人工通用智能)是否会比我们任何一个人都更擅长投资?
Investing. We were talking about this earlier. It's like, well, does the AGI, is that gonna be a better investor than any of us?
是的。人工通用智能,
Yes. Artificial general intelligence of,
比如,更聪明
like, smart
所以那是下一个阶段,它比历史上任何人类都更聪明,而我们离那一步已经非常接近了。那么在这种情况下,市场如何运作?当企业是向其他代理销售商品的代理时,我们的角色在哪里?我毕生的工作就是展望未来十年,试图概率性地理解各种路径。但到了2030年,眼前就像拉上了一道黑幕。
So that's the next stage where it's smarter than any human that's ever existed, and we're very close to that. So in which case, well, how do markets work? And when businesses are agents selling stuff to other agents, where do we play a role? So all I'm saying is my job, my whole life is to be to look into the future ten years out and try and probabilistically understand paths. Here, I get to, like, 2030, and it's like a dark curtain.
换个角度想一下,AI实际上如何能对你的假设产生积极影响?
Just to flip that for a second, how could AI actually positively influence your hypothesis?
我对AI持非常乐观的态度。我认为人类会安然度过这个阶段。我认为经济会爆发式增长,我们可以找到方法让它惠及人类或社会,或者我们想实现的任何目标。我并非末日论者。
I'm very positive about AI. I think humanity will come out of this just fine. I think economic growth that explodes is we can work a way of accretion it to to humans or society or whatever we wanna do with this. I'm not an am I doomer.
具体到比特币的价值和价格,AI如何能让它在未来变得更加重要?
Specifically on Bitcoin's value and price, how could AI make it even more important in in Well,
归根结底,人工智能需要两项基本输入。它需要的是——用马斯洛需求层次理论来说——计算能力和能源,并且需要获得报酬。你不可能让数十亿个这样的智能体四处执行任务却不支付费用。而且智能体会使用其他智能体,比如一个智能体会雇佣另外十个来完成所有任务。
in the end, an AI is a it requires two inputs. It requires it's it's Maslov's hierarchy of needs is basically two things, compute and energy, and it needs to be paid. These agents can't you can't build all these agents of billions of agents running around doing things without paying for them. And agents will use agents. So they will one agent will get another 10 agents to do all this task.
它们都必须获得报酬,而实现这一点的途径就是使用加密货币。
They're all gonna have to be paid. And the way of doing that is using crypto
支付通道。稳定币。
rails. Stablecoins.
无论是稳定币还是其他形式,整个加密货币支付体系——这些为互联网构建的新基础设施、区块链——才是解决方案所在。
Whether it's stablecoins, whatever it is, but that whole crypto rail, know, all of this new infrastructure for the Internet, the the blockchain, that's where it works.
通常,一家公司成败的关键不在于产品或战略,而在于内部人员。毕竟,公司的定义就是'一群人',世界上一些最优秀的企业主要由A级人才构建。让我告诉你个秘密:当你雇佣一个A级人才,他们会继续招募更多A级人才,形成良性循环。真正的挑战在于找到最初那几个A级人才。
Often, the difference between a company succeeding or failing isn't down to its product or strategy. It's down to the people on the inside. After all, the definition of the word company is group of people, and some of the best companies in the world have been largely built by a players because I'll let you in on a little secret. When you hire an a player, they go on to hire more a players, and it perpetuates. The challenge is finding those first few a players.
我大部分核心团队来自本节目赞助商领英。领英提供我在别处找不到的人才——既具备所需技能,又符合企业文化。每次在领英付费推广职位,我都能更快且更优质地完成招聘。数据也证明:相比免费发布,付费职位能带来三倍符合条件的申请者。
I found the majority of mine on LinkedIn who are a sponsor of this show. LinkedIn provides talent I could not find anywhere else, talent with the necessary skills and culture fit that I'm looking for. Whenever I've paid to promote a role on LinkedIn, I've been able to hire faster and, of course, better. The data supports this too. You'll actually get three times more qualified applicants than if you posted the same role for free.
如果你想打造非凡事业,现在就可以免费发布职位,访问linkedin.com/doac(即linkedin.com/d0ac)。当然需遵守相关条款。还记得我在播客中与人类学家丹尼尔·利伯曼的对话吗?那是我们播放量最高的对谈之一,而回放最多的片段正是我谈论这款产品的时刻。
So if you're trying to build something truly great, you can get started by posting a job for free by visiting linkedin.com/doac. That's linkedin.com/d0ac, and you can post your role for free there. Terms and conditions, of course, apply. Do any of you remember a conversation I had on this podcast with anthropologist Daniel Lieberman? It was one of our most viewed conversations of all time, and the most replayed moment in that conversation was when I talked about this product.
这些是我称之为Vivo Barefoot的赤足鞋,它们极大地减少了支撑,让我的双脚得到了它们迫切需要的强化机会。如果你从这个播客中学到了什么,那可能是我们正生活在一个舒适危机中,在我们生命的每一刻,我们都在做这样的权衡:是现在更舒适但未来更不适,还是现在稍不舒适但未来更强健。对我来说,选择穿赤足鞋就是后者。如果你想开始强化你的脚和身体,请访问vivobarefoot.com/steven,结账时使用代码steven b 20可享8折优惠,还附带一百天退款保证。
These are what I call Barefoot Shoes by Vivo Barefoot, which have significantly reduced support, which gives my feet the opportunity that they desperately want to need to strengthen. If you've learned anything from this podcast, it might be that we're living in a comfort crisis and that at all times in our lives, we're making this trade of whether to have more comfort now and therefore more discomfort in the future or a little bit less comfort now, but to be stronger and healthier in the future. And for me, that is the choice to wear barefoot shoes. So if you wanna start strengthening your feet and your body, visit vivobarefoot.com/steven and you'll get 20% off when you use code steven b 20 at checkout. That also comes with a one hundred day money back guarantee.
你有什么可失去的呢?我想问你一个问题。是的。我之所以去拿手机是因为有人联系了我,是我童年认识的人。
What have you got to lose? I wanted to ask you a question. Yeah. The reason I went and got my phone is because Yes. I had someone contact me that I knew from my childhood.
曾经是我最好的朋友之一。嗯。坦白说,十年没联系了,突然给我发短信。短信内容是:我想听听你的意见,因为我最后对他说,听着,我不是该问这个问题的人,我觉得你误解了我是谁。
Used to be one of my best friends. Mhmm. Frankly, not spoke to them in ten years, sent me a text message. And the text message they sent me is I wanted to get your opinion on this because I I said I ended up saying to him, listen, I'm not the guy to ask about this. I think you've misunderstood who I am.
嗨,梅。希望你一切安好。我遇到了一些债务麻烦,大约4万英镑。所以不止是‘一点’麻烦。我想寻求一些建议和方向,可能是关于被动收入或某种途径来逐步解决它。
Hi, May. I hope you're well. I got myself in a bit of trouble with some debt, about £40,000. So more than a bit of trouble. After I'm after some advice and direction in terms of maybe passive income slash an avenue to try and work my way out of it.
有什么我应该阅读或观看的资料吗?我问他,这是什么类型的债务?他说,个人贷款和信用卡,老兄。我说,我需要弄清楚这些债务有多紧急,是否造成了任何即时问题。他说,嗯,它们不是特别紧急。
Is there some material I should be reading, watching that you might know of? And I asked him, I said, what kind of debt is it? And he said, personal loans and credit cards, mate. And I said, like, how I need to ascertain how urgent those debts are and if it's causing any any immediate issues. And he said, well, they're not super urgent.
但由于高额的月度支出,这个月我房贷晚还了一个月。所以,情况有点紧急,但我不想继续这样下去。目前每月还款大约1000美元或800英镑,我无法获得合并贷款。这简直是完美风暴的开始,因为我刚换新工作,伴侣在休产假,还有这座债务大山。它开始影响我的家庭了。
But as a result of the high monthly outgoings, I'm a month behind my mortgage payment this month. So it, like, is, but it's not because I don't want to keep being in that position moving forward. It's costing me circa $1,000 or £800 a month in repayments at the moment, and I can't get a consolidation loan. It's a perfect storm starting because I've just started a new job, and my partner is on maternity leave, and I have this debt mountain. It's starting to affect my family
嗯。
Mhmm.
如果我付不起房贷,你懂吗?所以我必须改变未来的方向,想办法解决这个问题,而你是寻求建议的最佳人选。
If I can't pay the mortgage. You know? So I've gotta change moving forward and figure out what to do, and you're the man to ask for advice.
我当时就想,真是见鬼了。我不是我的
I was like, fuck me. I'm not my
然后他在一小时内又给我发消息说,嘿,抱歉兄弟。如果你忙的话,只是想提醒一下这件事。一小时后他又发消息,因为我在飞机上,他说,嘿,我真的需要一些方向上的帮助,兄弟。
and then he messaged me again within an hour and said, hey. Sorry, man. If you're busy, just wanted to nudge this. Then messaged again an hour later because I was on a flight and said, hey. I really need some help in direction, man.
我很快就无处可求了。
I'm quickly running out of places to turn.
他现在处境很艰难,因为欠了4万英镑的债务,假设利率是15%到20%,利息支付很快就会失控
He's kind of in a hard spot because £40,000 in debt with the interest payments of let's say your interest rate is 15 to 20%, that starts to spiral out of control a
一点点。
little bit.
如果他的债务低于1万英镑,情况会稍微可控一些。但4万英镑的话,利息会迅速累积。你说他有房贷,他甚至可能要考虑搬家、卖掉房子,至少控制住利息支付,或者减少债务总额。这种情况下,你需要尽可能削减每一项开支,然后把所有钱都投入到利率最高的债务上。
Like if he was under £10,000 in debt, it's a little bit more manageable. But at 40,000, the interest starts to compound quite quickly. So you said he had a mortgage. He might even have to consider moving, selling, selling the home to at least get the interest payments under control or, like, reduce that amount of debt. It's kind of the one of those situations where you just need to reduce every single expense possible and start really pouring all your money into the highest interest rate debt that he owns.
所以,你可以把所有的债务按利率从高到低排序,然后从最高的开始处理,对吧?如果某个债务利率高达22%,你肯定想先摆脱它,因为那才是真正拖垮你的。在那个债务水平下,情况确实很艰难,我觉得很多人会考虑申请破产,只是为了清除那部分债务,具体取决于他的收入。我认识一个服务员,她有5万美元的信用卡债务,却因为利息支出几乎等于她的工资而无法摆脱。
So, like, you know, you can rank your interest rates of all your debts from highest to lowest and start start at the very top. Right? If it has 22% interest rate, you want to get rid of that first because that's what's killing them. At those levels of debt, it's really tough because I think a lot of people consider bankruptcy at that point, just to kind of clear that amount of debt, depending on what his income is. I know I've known, let's say, a waitress or server that had $50,000 in credit card debt and unable to get over it because the interest payments were as much as their salary.
所以在这种情况下,除非你能从家人那里获得个人贷款来清偿债务,否则处境会非常艰难。尽可能减少开支,把所有的闲钱都用来偿还利率最高的债务,然后考虑变卖一些资产——如果他还有资产的话。破产。破产。
So in those cases, unless you can get a personal loan from, let's say, a family member and, you know, kind of clear that debt, you're in a really tough spot. Reduce your expenses as much as possible. Put any extra money you have towards that debt at the highest interest rate possible, the first the highest interest rate thing, and then consider selling some assets if he has assets. Bankruptcy. Bankruptcy.
什么时候应该考虑破产,代价是什么?
When should someone consider bankruptcy, and what's the trade off?
代价是七年。在美国,你的信用会彻底毁掉。不过前几天有人发推给我看了一张图表,显示美国谷歌上破产律师搜索量的趋势,结果一直在上升,这不是个好现象。破产嘛,有不同的类型可以申请,但我知道它通常能清除部分甚至全部债务,而你基本上得从头再来。但代价是你会失去很多特权,比如信用评分。
The trade off is seven years. I believe your credit is shot in America. So but I I believe that actually, I think if you pull up a chart someone sent me a tweet the other day of, like, bankruptcy lawyer searches in America on Google, and it's, like, been kind of like going up into the right, which is not a great thing. Bankruptcy just, you know, there's different types of bankrupt bankruptcy that you can file for, but I do know that it usually clears some, if not all, your debt, and you basically have to start over. But as a result, you lose a lot of your privileges, like, for example, no credit score.
我读过某个统计数据——不知道你确认过没有——大意是说人们因为破产的污名而避免申请。但观察那些申请破产的人十年后的财务状况,他们通常比那些试图避免破产的人过得更好。
I've read some stat. I'm not you might know if this is true, but I read a stat that it said something to the effect that people avoid going into bankruptcy because of the stigma associated with it. When they looked at the financial performance over ten years of people that did go into bankruptcy, those that did typically were better off than those that tried to avoid it for the next So ten
嗯,我不确定。这可能是传闻。很难说,如果你有五万美元债务却只赚五万美元年薪,那确实……
yeah. I don't know. That could be anecdotal. I don't know. That's tough because if you have $50,000 in debt and you make $50,000 a year, it's yeah.
情况不同。某种程度上破产是好事,因为它迫使你进行危机管控。就像你一开始提到的,人们应该审视自己的开支……对,支出。
It's different. Bankruptcy in some ways is a good thing because it forces you to do crisis control. It's like your expenditure, what you're doing, what everything becomes hyper focused. Like, you you led in the beginning with about, you know, how people should look at their expense Yeah. Expenditure.
对吧?确实。当你负债4万美元时,你显然没有做到这一点。没错。而破产实际上迫使你在相当长的一段时间内养成这种纪律性,最终形成习惯。
Right? Yeah. When you're $40,000 in debt, you've not been doing that. Correct. And bankruptcy actually forces you to to actually discipline that for a extended period of time where it becomes a habit.
所以斯蒂芬,这就是为什么他们最终表现更优——因为你在这个讨论一开始就提到的习惯已经建立起来了。
So, Stephen, that's why they outperform in the end because you've created the habit that you talked about right in the beginning of this discussion.
是的。我刚查到这个数据:这是金融领域令人不安的真相之一,答案往往是肯定的。那些申请破产的人长期状况反而比那些长期试图逃避破产的人要好。研究表明,申请破产者通常能彻底清除债务,摆脱无力偿还的负债。
Yeah. So I I just found the stat here. It said, yeah, this is one of the uncomfortable truths in finance, and the answer is often yes. Those who file for bankruptcy end up in a better place long term than those who try for prolonged periods of time to avoid it. And the research shows, that people who file for bankruptcy typically get their debt wiped out and cleaned, and they, removing unpayable debt.
破产能带来立竿见影的心理解脱,消除无力偿债的沉重压力。逃避者往往长期处于财务压力中,这种压力会蔓延到健康、人际关系和工作。简而言之,直面破产者通常恢复更快,长期处境反而比那些跛行挣扎的逃避者更稳固。
It's bankruptcy can bring immediate mental relief, removing the crushing stress of unpayable debts. People who avoid it often live in chronic financial stress, which spills into their health relationships and work. So in short, those who face bankruptcy head on often recover faster and end up in a long a stronger position than those who keep limping along trying to avoid it.
我想正在收听、可能处于类似困境的人最想知道的是:如何解脱?破产是一种选择,但归根结底必须做出改变——而这个改变是艰难的。这正是很多人难以启齿或理解的部分。解脱确实存在,但需要付出剧烈、极端且快速的牺牲。什么意思呢?
And I think somebody who's listening who may be in a similar or the same situation ultimately wants to know how do I get relief. Bankruptcy is one option, but at the end of the day, there has to be change, and that change is difficult. That's And the part that I think a lot of people have a hard time talking about or comprehending. There is relief, but it comes with severe, extreme, and quick sacrifice. What do I mean?
第一,你必须尽可能快地削减开支。必须变卖尽可能多的资产。破产当然有效,但你会失去房子,还会连带失去其他东西,这会造成巨大的情感代价。
Number one, you've got to cut back your expenses as fast as possible in that situation. You have to sell as much stuff as possible. I mean, bankruptcy obviously works, but you also lose your house. You also lose other things along with it. There's a lot of emotional toll with it.
如果你有家庭和孩子——这往往也是导致离婚的重要原因,所以它还会从多方面影响你的生活。你必须做出极端牺牲:比如取消奈飞订阅,不仅是因为每月15美元的开销,更因为美国人平均每天花两小时看奈飞。如果你身处这种困境却每天花两小时看奈飞,你晚上怎么睡得着?你本不该每晚睡足八小时。
You have a family, have a kid. Mean, it's also a big reason people end up getting a divorce, so it can also impact your life in many different ways. So you have to make extreme sacrifices, and I mean, get rid of the Netflix subscription, not because it's just costing you $15 a month, but because the average American is spending more than two hours a day watching Netflix. And if you're in that type of situation and you're spending two hours sitting there watching whatever the heck is on Netflix, how do you sleep at night? You shouldn't be sleeping eight hours a night.
你最好赶紧起床,想办法多赚点钱。我不在乎是开Uber还是去麦当劳打工。去找些额外收入,学习如何赚更多钱。虽然听起来残酷,但现实是,如果你想要巨大的改变,没有极端的行动是不可能实现的。
You better be getting up, go and try to get some more money. I don't care if it's Uber. I don't care if you're working McDonald's. Find some extra money and learn how you can earn some more money. And, I mean, it sounds harsh, but the reality is if you want extreme change, it's not gonna happen without extreme change.
那么你觉得他能卖掉房子吗?假设他年收入5万——根据对他工作和居住地的大致了解,这个数字应该是准确的。卖掉房子然后租公寓住?这样能释放资金吗?
So could he sell his house, do you think, that assuming he's making the 50 k, which I I think is probably accurate, having a vague understanding of his job and where he lives, etcetera? Sell his house and then move in rent an apartment? Would that free up capital?
我是说,这确实能立刻缓解他当前的困境。当然可以。
I mean, that would alleviate his current problem immediately. Sure.
他在这里提到,在寻求建议方向时可能涉及被动收入——这个'被动收入'的词汇我倒是知道。
He says here, after some advice direction in terms of maybe passive income this word passive income I know.
我 它是
I It's
让人抓狂。为什么这个词会让你抓狂?
stressing nuts. Why does it drive you nuts?
这是个...就像有个被动收入产业化复合体。我是说,这简直是每个千禧一代的梦想——'我要获得被动收入'。嗯哼。但这根本不存在。我们讨论过房产。房产是你所能想象的最不'被动'的收入。
It is a there's like a passive income industrialization complex that is I mean, it is literally every millennial's dream is, I'm gonna get passive income. Mhmm. And it doesn't exist. We talked about property. Property is the least passive income you can imagine.
太糟糕了。每次我试图出租房产,都有那么多开销。所有事情都会出问题,简直没完没了。你一直在支付各种费用。
It is awful. Every time I've tried to rent out property, there are so many costs. Everything goes wrong. It's just endless. You're paying fees.
人们以为存在某种神奇的被动收入。但任何收获都需要付出努力。世上根本没有不劳而获的事情——就连抢劫也得费劲呢,明白吗?
And people think there's there's there's a magic passive income. Everything comes with effort. There is no such thing as returns without effort. That's but even robbery comes with effort. You know?
不付出努力或不承担风险就想赚钱是不可能的。当你负债4万美元时,怎么会觉得被动收入能拯救你?他只是在TikTok和Instagram上看到那些——'我们是三十多岁的千禧一代,现在住在里斯本,靠房子的被动收入生活',全是胡扯。
There's there's no way of making money without effort or risking something. And so when you're $40 in debt, how on earth do you think passive income is going to rescue you? But he's seen that on TikTok and, on Instagram. Oh, we're we're millennials in our in our thirties, and we're now living in in the in in Lisbon, and we've got passive income from our house. It's like it's bullshit.
这是社交媒体编织的虚幻美梦,根本不存在,也永远无法把他从4万英镑的债务中拯救出来。
It's social social media dream that doesn't really exist, and that's never gonna save him from £40,000 debt.
被动收入确实存在,问题在于人们对它的认知。我现在经济拮据,身无分文,还有账单要付。
Passive income can exist. The perception of what it is is the problem. I am struggling with money. I have no money. I got bills to pay.
我需要被动收入。但事情不是那样运作的。
I need passive income. And that's not how it works.
事情根本不是那样运作的。
That's not how it works.
运作方式是你把多余的钱拿出来。我去工作,存钱并投资一些钱。我把想投入两项投资的额外资金,可以投入一项资产、一项投资,它能让我无需实际工作、无需上班就能获得收益。现在让我问问你的房地产情况,因为我得一直请教你,老兄。你是自己管理房产,还是
The way it works is you take extra money. I'm going to work and I'm saving and investing some money. I take the extra money that I want to put my two investments, and I can put it into an asset, an investment, that can pay me for owning it without actually working, without going to work to own it. Now let me ask you about your real estate, because I gotta keep coming back to you, man. Did manage your real estate yourself, or did you
有经理人?两种方式我都试过。我既委托过管理代理,也自己管理过。
have manager? I've done both. I've had management agent and a management myself.
自己管理很可能是个彻头彻尾的噩梦。
Managing yourself is probably a a absolute nightmare.
那太可怕了。
That's horrific.
而通过经理人管理同样可能是个噩梦,只是场景不同罢了。
And managing it with a manager was also probably a nightmare just in a different scene.
是啊。而且因为你的收益率也会大幅下降。
Yeah. And because your yield is massively reduced as well.
确实下降了。
It is reduced.
然后你需要在短期租赁和长期租赁之间权衡取舍。短期租赁存在收益不稳定的风险,而长期租赁又是另一回事。你还得面对租客问题,他们可能很糟糕,造成的破坏也令人头疼。确实如此。
And then you take the trade off between whether you're gonna do short term lets or longer term rentals. And there's the volatility in the short term lets that you don't know what your yield's gonna be. Long term, different as well. Then you've got the tenants and how bad the tenants have been and the damage that they've done. Yep.
到最后,你会放弃并想,哦,真的吗?这根本不值得费这个劲。
By the end of it, you walk away and think, oh, really? It just wasn't worth the effort.
嗯,我我不同意
Well, I I would disagree with
是的。我是说,显然有些人确实能从房地产中赚大钱。
Yeah. The other I mean, obviously, people can do really well out of property.
房地产投资的工作在于学习这个过程。当我刚开始投资房地产时,完全是一场噩梦,一点也不被动,远非被动投资,简直就是噩梦。起初你不知道的是,有好物业经理,也有差物业经理。如何找到好的物业经理?就是通过经历许多糟糕的物业经理并学习这个过程。
The work in real estate investment is learning the process. When I first started investing in real estate, it was a complete nightmare, and it was not passive, anything close to passive, it was a nightmare. What you don't know when you start is that there's a good property manager, there's also a bad property manager. How do I find good property managers? By going through a lot of bad property managers and learning that process.
这是个痛苦的过程,非常耗时。但当你有了合适的团队,它可以变得极其被动。所以我我投资房地产。
And that is a painful process, a very time consuming process. But when you do have the right team, it can be extremely passive. So I I invest in real estate.
我们说的是哪种类型的房产?
What kind of properties are we talking about?
独栋住宅和多户公寓。
Single family houses and multifamily apartments.
你有很多这样的房产吗?
And do you have lots of them?
不算很多,但数量还算可观。
Not lots, but I have a decent amount.
那你投资组合中有多少比例是购买房产后出租给家庭的?
And how much of your portfolio is in buying properties and then renting them out to families?
50%。
50%.
过去十年里,你的年化回报率大概是多少?
And what are your returns been like over year over year for the last decade?
我看待回报的方式是这样的:当我收购一处房产时,我希望投入的资金能获得7%的现金回报率。所以说到回报,我并不关心资产增值。我们之前讨论过很多次,比如我花10万美元买下一栋房子,后来涨到20万美元——这不在我考虑范围内。我收购房地产的目标不是转手倒卖获利,而是持续扩大每月产生的现金流。
So the way I look at returns, when I look to acquire a property, is I want 7% cash on cash on the money that I put in. So when I look at return, I don't care about equity. We talked about this kind of a lot, that if I buy a house for, let's just call it $100,000 and it goes up to $200,000 I don't care. My goal when I acquire real estate is not to sell it and flip it for a profit. My goal is to grow the cash flow that I'm generating month after month after
月租金支付。
month rental payments.
来自租金收入。
From rental payments.
但这真的很困难,因为像我这样没怎么做过房产租赁之类事情的人,搞砸的几率绝对很高。
It's really difficult, though, because if I as someone that hasn't done a lot of property rentals and stuff like that, the chance that I'm gonna fuck up Absolutely. So high.
我就是那种可能搞砸次数多到数不清的人。这让我失眠过很多次,压力巨大。
And I'm one of those people that probably screwed up more than more than I can count. It does cost me a lot of sleep, cost me a lot of stress.
所以你必须得算是个专家才行。
So you have to kind of be an expert.
不必成为专家,但你得
You don't have to be an expert, but you gotta be
非常消极。在
really negative. In
最初的那几年,确实非常痛苦。但如今,当我购置房产时,我会像研究股票或其他投资一样深入研究房产。我会做足功课去调研一处房产。在当今经济环境下,要找到那样的回报率困难得多,但并非不可能。买下房产后,将钥匙交给物业经理,明确目标,现在我只需监督经理,因为我已经有了一个团队来
the beginning, right, for the first number of years, it was extremely painful. But today, when I go and I acquire a property, I will look for the property just like I do research on a stock or whatever I want to do. I do the work to research a property. In today's economy, it's much harder, not impossible, to find those returns. Acquire the property, hand over the keys to the property manager, give them the goals, and now I oversee the manager because I have a team now that is
这是一门生意。就像创办一家初创企业。
It's a business. It's a business. It's like starting a startup.
但这和创办初创企业不同。为什么?因为当我经营自己的公司时,我是在公司里工作,投入大量时间。我要与员工会面,主持会议。
But it's not like starting a startup. Why? Because starting a startup when I work at my company, I am working at my company, and I work a lot of hours. So I'm meeting with my employees. I'm leading the meetings.
我要构思创意,引领愿景。而购置房产后,我只需移交钥匙,设定好框架,剩下的执行就交给你们了。
I'm coming up with ideas. I'm leading the vision. With this, I acquire, I hand over the keys, I've already set the framework, and now you are doing the execution.
那是成熟企业的做法。我的公司在英国有数百名员工
That's a mature business. With my company, there's hundreds of people in The UK right
那个正在创办初创企业的人。
the one that's starting that startup.
我是创始人。
I was the founder.
那你现在做了什么?你招了更多员工来实现目标。
And now what have you done? You've acquired more employees to get there.
这正是你和你物业经理采取的策略。
Which is what you did with your property manager.
但初创公司要棘手得多。一家初创公司需要发展到多大规模,才能有财力支付员工薪资、创造收益,进而聘请新CEO来取代你,并引领公司
Much harder to deal with a startup, though. How big does a startup have to be in order to be able to displace you as a CEO to pay for the staff, to make the money, and then to hire a new CEO and to lead it the
这要看情况。我朋友阿什上周还在洛杉矶和我在一起,他的初创团队只有四人。他现在就在洛杉矶我的房子里,和我女友以及另一位仍在那里的挚友在一起。我看着他此刻正在泡热水浴缸——我知道是因为他每天固定时间都会泡澡,然后去爬山,我女友会发照片给我。他组建了这个四人团队,
way Depends. My friend's my friend, Ash, who was just with me last week in LA, has four people in his start up. He's out in LA right now in my house in LA with my girlfriend and my other best friend who's still there, And I watched he's in the hot tub right now. I know that because every day at the same time he goes in the hot tub, and then they go for this hike, and my girlfriend sends me photos. What he's done is he set up his team of four people.
专门帮人在领英打造个人品牌,团队在英国为他远程运营业务。而他现在正和我女友在该死的山上逍遥。
They do personal branding on LinkedIn for people, and they're running it back for him in The UK. He's up in bloody the mountain with my girlfriend right now.
这很美好。但有多少初创企业达不到这种状态?人们想创业
That's beautiful. But how many startups don't get there? People wanna start a business
却未能成功。对我来说...我当时觉得,哦,那不过就是门生意。所以
that don't get there. It to me. I was like, oh, that's just a it's just a business. So there's
这是一门生意。
is a business.
需要经历陡峭的学习曲线来培养专业知识,然后建立系统使其可持续运作。
A steep learning curve to develop expertise, and then you put systems in place to make it sustainable.
但系统某种程度上是预设好的——你需要出租房产,需要一位优秀的经理找到好租客,他们得按时支付账单。这不像创业需要我去创新和构思点子,也不必亲自去绘制蓝图。
But the systems are kind of preestablished where you need to rent it out. You need a good manager who's gonna find a good tenant. They gotta pay the bills. And it's it's not like a startup where I have to innovate and create an idea. I don't have to go out and build the blueprint.
我要做的是获取人们已有需求的现存资产,然后通过让人居住或使用来发挥其效用,再由团队负责维护。
I am going out, I'm acquiring an asset that people already need that's already existing, and then I'm going to put use to it by having somebody live there or use it, and then there's a team just maintaining it.
那么你对被动收入的看法如何?它真实可行吗?具体到住房问题——你会建议人们购买出租房产并通过收取租金作为收入来源吗?
So what do you think then in terms of passive income? And is it real? But specifically, let's do this point of housing. Do you advise people to buy rental properties and then generate rental fees from them as a source of income?
刚才贾斯珀已经说明了这需要多少工作量。因此我通常不建议人们涉足这个行业,不仅因为学习曲线陡峭,而且并非所有人都适合或具备足够资本。如果想入门并实际赚钱,我认为股市是最具流动性且最容易入门的领域。我个人租房,并计划继续租房,同时将可能用于房贷的差额资金投入股市。
Well, you just heard Jasper read of how much work it would take. So I I generally don't advise people to to get into that business just because of the steep learning curve, and not everyone is built for that. Not everyone has capital for that. So if you were just trying to get started and actually make some money, I just think the stock market is the most liquid and easiest place to get started. I personally rent, and I plan on renting and just instead investing the difference of what my mortgage payment might be in my my rent.
我认为在沿海地区,如旧金山、纽约、迈阿密,这种做法可能更合理。
I think in on the coasts, like San Francisco, New York, I think Miami, that might actually be the more reasonable thing to do.
我昨天刚读到《纽约时报》的一篇文章,说美国百万富翁租房人数创历史新高,从2019年2月到2023年2月间增长了三倍。短短几年间,百万富翁选择租房的比例前所未有地增加。这是怎么回事?
I was reading a New York Times article that just came out yesterday, and it said more millionaires than ever are renting in The United States, and that it's tripled between February '19 and 02/2023. So in just a couple of years, millionaires are choosing to rent more than ever before. What's going on?
我猜很多百万富翁可能住在沿海地区,因为他们投资较多或从事高薪工作,在旧金山、西雅图、纽约、洛杉矶这些地方买房对他们来说可能有点负担不起。
My guess would be a lot of the millionaires are probably living on the coast because they invest a lot or they have higher paying jobs, and maybe it's slightly unaffordable for them to buy a house in, say, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Los Angeles.
《纽约时报》文章中提到,他们选择灵活性和流动性而非所有权,不想被房产税、保险等房屋所有权带来的麻烦所困扰,尤其是在佛罗里达和加州这些自然灾害频发的市场?
In the New York Times article, it says they're choosing flexibility and liquidity over ownership, and they don't want to be bothered with the inconveniences of homeownership, which includes paying a real estate tax and insurance, especially in markets like Florida and California, where we're seeing a lot of natural catastrophes?
没错。美国市场很特殊,因为持有房产要缴纳高额房地产税。你的收益始终被这部分支出削减,不管是1.5%还是2%,总归有这笔开销。此外还有其他叠加的房地产税。
Yeah. So The US is a peculiar market because there's this high real estate tax in owning real estate. So all the time, your returns are being reduced by that you pay. So whether it's like 1.5% or 2%, whatever the number is, there's that. And then there's the other real estate taxes that come on top of it.
利率一直居高不下,这种情况持续很久了。很多人光是利息支出就被市场拒之门外。但现在由于房贷月供的存在,与租房的关键区别在于——很多房东不需要覆盖房贷成本(因为他们已全款购房),所以租金更便宜。这本质上是价格问题。
Interest rates have been high. They've been high for a while now. So a lot of people have just been priced out of the market just in interest payments. But now, because of mortgage payments are here, the difference is actually with the rental is a lot of rental people aren't trying to cover mortgage costs because they own the property outright, so you get cheaper rates. So it's to do with price.
美国经济在普通民众层面尚未真正强劲。华尔街风光了好一阵子,但实体经济没有。人们还没有多余的收入。我认为这是原因之一,但可能也是更大趋势的体现。
The US economy has not been super strong yet at Main Street level. Wall Street's had a great period of time, but Main Street hasn't. So people don't have excess earnings yet. So I think it's a function of that, but it's probably a larger trend as well.
我觉得还涉及到对机会的把握。租房确实有很多灵活性。比如我自己直到2025年才买房,之前一直租房住。
I think also it's understanding what the opportunities are. Mean, there's a lot of flexibility with renting. I mean, I finally bought a house in 2025. I've been renting before this.
所以你今年买了第一套房产和家人一起住?
So you bought your first property to live in with your family this year?
对,是的。我原本计划是2025年才搬进去住的。
To from yes. Me to live in was 2025.
为什么你不早点这么做呢?
Why didn't you do it sooner?
嗯,因为租房时我可以动用资金购买其他出租房产或投资。所以对我来说,把钱用在其他地方更合理。
Well, because when I was renting, I could take the capital and buy other rental properties, buy other investments. So it was it made more sense for me to put that money to work somewhere else.
那么把买房作为积累财富的手段是个糟糕的主意吗?
So is buying a property as a means to generate wealth a terrible idea?
作为积累财富的手段,是买来自住还是...
As a means to generate to buy for yourself to live in or to
但是,你知道,我成长过程中大家都告诉我:先赚钱,找个工作,然后申请房贷。好像这就是该做的事。
Well, but, you know, when you when I grew up, everyone said to me that you get money, get a job, then you get a mortgage. And so, like, that's what you did.
这是你能给别人最糟糕的建议之一
That's one of the worst pieces of advice you can give somebody
但这就是大家都在做的事。绝大多数人至今仍在这么做。我之所以知道,是因为我观察那些没有像我这样获得财务建议的朋友们——比如我哥哥、我的财务顾问和会计师。他们手头一有点钱,第一件事就是去申请房贷。因为他们的父母这样做,所有人历来都这样做。
But that's what everyone's doing. That's still what the vast majority of people are doing. And I know that because I look at I look at my friends that don't have the same financial advice that I have from, like, my brother and my financial advisers, my accountants. And the first thing they do when they get a bit of money is they go and get a mortgage. And that's because that's what their parents did, that's what everyone's always done.
拉胡尔,你觉得这是个好主意吗?
Is that a good idea, Rahul?
既是也不是。不,我认为在当今经济环境下——别忘了,我24、25岁时在投行工作,当时收入并非最高,毕竟只是个25岁的年轻人。
Yes and no. No. I think these days, with how the economy is being set up, don't forget, when I was 24, 25, I was working in an investment bank. I wasn't the highest paid guy there. I was a 25 year old.
在伦敦买第一套公寓时,房价是我收入的3.5倍。如今同等公寓与收入的比值已达12倍。所以租房显然更合理,你不如去投资。购买所有你认为能带来回报的东西。但住宅、自住房从来不是也不该被视为投资。
And to buy my first flat in London was three and a half times my income. That equivalent flat and the equivalent income is 12 times. So rent makes much more sense now, and you might as well invest. Buy all the stuff that you think will drive returns. But a house, a primary house, is not an investment, never will be.
因为一旦购入你就不会出售,无法变现这笔资产。或许你的子女可以继承——如果你有孩子的话。所以它不是投资,但可以算是对未来的投资。
Because once you buy it, you don't sell it. You don't realize that equity. Maybe your kids do if you've got kids. So it's not an investment, but it can be an investment in your future.
但这里似乎存在某种视觉错觉。想到租房时我会觉得:这笔钱花出去就消失了。而买房时,我是在往存钱罐里存钱。所以逻辑上租房当然是浪费,钱给了别人就再也看不见了。
But there's, like, some optical illusion going on here because when I think about renting, I go, well, that money, I never see it again. I know. But with buying a house, I'm paying into it, so it's like me depositing the money in a piggy bank. So logically, of course, renting is wasting money. It goes to someone else and never see it again.
但这并不完全正确。如果你今天出去买一套50万美元的房子,我首付20%,也就是付10万美元首付,贷款40万美元,利率是6.5%。
But that's not exactly true. If you go out today, I buy a half a million dollar house. I put 20% down. So I put $100,000 down. I finance $400,000 I get a six and a half percent mortgage.
三十年按揭,我每月还款2500美元。现在我在做什么?我不是在租房,不是在给房东钱,而是在积累房产净值。
Thirty years, my mortgage payment is $2,500 a month. Now what am I doing? I'm not renting. I'm not giving money to my landlord. I'm building equity in my property.
但银行也深谙此道。他们会将你的按揭贷款前期利息占比调高。这是什么意思?当我支付2500美元时,不是12.5美元用于偿还本金积累房产净值,12.5美元支付利息。本金部分实际上...
But banks also understand the same game. They front load your mortgage. What does that mean? When I pay $2,500 it's not $12.50 dollars going to principal to build equity in my house and $12.50 dollars for interest. Principal It's being?
是在为自己赎回房子。这不是五五开,几乎全是利息。事实上,如果你今天以6.5%的利率贷款购买50万美元的房子,首付20%,在按揭的前20年里,超过一半的还款会直接以利息形式流入银行口袋。直到第21年,你2500美元的月供才有一半能真正积累为房产净值。
Buying your house back for yourself. It's not half and half. It's almost all interest. In fact, if you go on and buy the half a million dollar house today at a six and a half percent mortgage, 20% down, for the first twenty years of that mortgage, more than half of that payment is going to go directly to your banker's pocket with interest. It's not until you're 21 that half of your $2,500 payment is going to go towards equity in your house.
所以前期全是利息,零净值积累,然后缓慢变化。需要二十年才能达到平衡点。而很多人(并非所有人)在这个过程中会遇到利率下降,或者需要额外资金,于是选择重新贷款。一旦重新贷款,整个分期还款周期又从头开始,我又要支付大量利息,实际积累的净值依然寥寥无几。
So it's all interest, zero equity, and then slowly moves like this. It takes twenty years to get there. And then what happens along the way for a lot of people, not everybody, for a lot of people, is along the way, interest rates go down, I need some extra money, so what do I do? I refinance. As soon as I refinance, that amortization starts all over again, and so now I'm paying all this interest again, and my real equity that I'm building is not there.
这就是为什么我说买房并非坏事。我认为买房很好,但不要像你说的那样看待房子。别把房子当成投资,要视为消费支出。买房是因为你能负担得起,因为你想要,因为你准备好了,而不是为了积累财富。
This is why I say it's not bad to buy a house. I think it's great if you buy a house, but don't treat your house like like you said. Don't treat your house like an investment. Treat it like an expense. Buy buy it because you can afford it, because you want it, because you're ready, but not because you're going to build wealth.
你怎么看?
What do you think?
我同意他们俩的观点。我认为,房子是一种不容易快速变现的资产,这反而是件好事。比如,如果你有10万美元可以投入股市或用作首付,而你又是个情绪化的人,股市跌2%就会抛售,那买房可能是更好的选择。对吧?毕竟你不能像划两下手机就把房子卖掉。
I agree with both their takes. I think that, you know, a home is an asset that you can't sell very easily, so that's also a good thing. Like, if you have $100,000 to put into stocks or $100,000 to put on a down payment, and you know you were just such an emotional person that the moment that the stock market goes down 2% you're selling, probably better to buy a house. Right? You can't really sell your house in the tap of two swipes.
但作为投资而言,对大多数人来说买房远不止是投资。他们购房是出于心理需求、情感因素或安全感。所以我想说,如果你有购房意愿且负担得起,那就很棒。
But in terms of an investment, it's like usually, it's much more than investment to people. They they buy them for psychological reason or emotional reasons or the sense of security. So I would just say, like, if you're interested in buying a house and you you can afford it, then that that's great. Yeah.
我们来看看最理想的情况。你刚才提到这个例子:我花50万美元买了套房,升值到100万美元。天啊——
And let's actually go with the best case scenario. So I think you were mentioning this. I buy a house for, let's call it half a million dollars. It goes up in value to a million dollars. Oh my god.
我发财了是吧?虽然只是账面财富,但可以通过再融资套现。可问题在于:你现在拥有的是百万豪宅。
I'm rich. Right? Well, it's invisible, but yeah, I could take the cash out refinance, but now I had to pay all that. Here's the problem. You now own a million dollar house.
这意味着什么?你得按百万房产缴纳地产税,金额会高很多;还要支付百万豪宅的保险费。如果你把房子传给子女,他们确实继承了百万资产——
What does that mean? You have to pay property taxes on a million dollar house, so you've got to pay a lot more property taxes. You have to pay insurance on a million dollar house. So now if you pass this house down to your kids, great. They got a million dollar house.
但如果他们负担不起百万豪宅的税费和保险,最终只能变卖。
But if they can't afford the property taxes or the insurance on a million dollar house, now they have to sell
保险是容易被忽视的隐性成本,特别是在得克萨斯、俄克拉荷马这类飓风多发区。突然你会发现,除了税款之外,房屋保险费也高得令人望而却步。人们往往意识不到这点。
insurance is one of these really hidden costs that you don't realize, particularly if, like, if you're in a hurricane area like Texas or Oklahoma or something, suddenly your house insurance costs are prohibitive on top of the taxes you pay. People don't think about that.
那么,贾斯珀,你是说买比特币对吧?
So, Jasper, you're saying by Bitcoin. Right?
全押进去。你离拥有一切就差一枚币了。
Go all in. You're 1 coin away from everything.
零成本。他们刚刚点击了那个。截取了那个。对。已经病毒式传播了。
Zero cost. They've just clicked that. Clipped that. Yeah. It's gone viral.
但在座没人会把买房当作财富创造策略。不会。你们在此之前会做很多其他事。
But none no one at this table would adopt buying a house as a wealth creation strategy. No. You would all do many things before then.
是的。没错。
Yeah. Correct.
这几乎会排在待办事项列表的最末尾吧?
Would that be almost at the bottom of the list of things?
这取决于我们讨论的年龄段群体。如果你大概,嗯,38岁左右,嗯,有个孩子,基本还清了学生贷款,过得还行。这种安全感固然好,但它不是投资。
It's part of it's age cohort, who we're talking about. If you're kind of, like Mhmm. 38 years old Mhmm. You've got a kid, you kinda cleared up some of your student debt payments, you're okay. That security thing is fine, but it's not an investment.
年纪更小的,绝对不行。
Anybody younger, just no.
如果单纯从美元投资回报率来看,我可能会把它排在清单靠后的位置
Is there If you're just talking pure dollar investment returns, I probably would rank it lower on the list
确实如此。
for sure.
嗯。是否存在所谓的良性债务?因为我记得一开始你说要清理债务。那么是否存在良性债务呢?
Yeah. Is there any such thing as good debt? Because I remember at the start, you said clear up your debt. Is there is there a good debt?
有人通过债务赚大钱,但也有人因此亏得血本无归。
People make a lot of money on debt, but people lose a lot of money on debt.
我个人尽量完全避开债务。是的,我认为如果债务能为你所用,能通过杠杆让钱生钱,那确实存在良性债务。但要知道,杠杆伴随着巨大风险,很多人因此栽跟头。
I just try to stay away from debt altogether. Yeah. I mean, I think that yeah. There is such a thing as, like, good debt if it's working for you and you're able to to leverage that money to make more money. But a lot of people you know, with leverage gets comes a lot of risk.
我认识不少人就是因为背负所谓的良性债务而倾家荡产,对吧?
And I know a lot of people got wiped out because they took on quote unquote good debt. Right?
什么是杠杆?
What's leverage?
杠杆作用是这样的,比如在贾斯普雷特的例子中,你支付房屋价格的20%作为首付,剩下的80%通过抵押贷款获得。从技术上讲,这就是在利用杠杆,因为你用自己拥有的10万美元,现在却能负担价值50万美元的资产。如果你的房子从50万美元升值到100万美元,你就获得了50万美元的收益,而你实际只投入了10万美元。所以从技术上讲,你的利润或回报率要高得多。这种收益是通过你所承担的债务实现的杠杆效应。
Leverage is so for example, in Jaspreet's example, you put 20% down on a house, and you take an 80%, the rest of it, as a mortgage. That's technically leveraging your money because you're taking the 100 ks that you have, and now you're affording an asset that's worth $500,000 If your home goes from $500,000 to $1,000,000 you have a $500,000 gain, but you only put in a $100,000. So technically, your profit or your return percentage is much higher. It was leveraged by that debt that you carried.
嗯,我觉得大多数人并不知道他们可以对自己的加密货币使用杠杆。
Well, I don't think most people know that they can leverage their crypto.
没错。你可以用它作为抵押来借款。
That's right. You can borrow against it.
所以任何人都可以。你不需要去银行。
So anyone can. You don't need to go to a bank.
是的。你可以即时在所谓的去中心化金融中完成。或者有很多公司提供这类服务,允许你以资产为抵押借款。你甚至可以用数字艺术品作为抵押。我是个狂热的数字艺术品收藏家。
No. You could do it instantaneously in what's known as decentralized finance. Or there's there's a whole bunch of companies that do this, where you can borrow against your assets. You can even do it against digital art. I'm a huge digital art collector.
就像艺术品市场一样,你实际上可以根据艺术品的价值借款,可能能借到其价值的50%。
Much like the art market, you can actually go and borrow against the value of the art, maybe 50% against the value.
让我用超级简单的方式解释一下。假设我是一个从未买过比特币,但正考虑买一个,同时还想留点现金的人。
Let me explain this to me super simply. If I as if for someone that's, like, never even bought Bitcoin before and is thinking about potentially buying one, but they would also like some way to have a little bit of cash.
听着,我不喜欢这样。好吧,我理解原因,但问题是你持有的资产会这样——它波动性很大。
Look. I don't like it. Okay. I understand why, but the issue is you've got an asset that does this. It's volatile.
波动性非常大。而你用它抵押借款,却不知道它是否会跌破那个价值导致被清算,那样你就失去了所有比特币。关键在于,如果你处于长期牛市,千万别失去对代币的控制权。全程持有你的比特币,否则你可能会为了额外5%或10%的收益而搞砸这一切。
It's very volatile, And you're borrowing a certain amount against it. And you don't know whether it falls below that value and you get liquidated, then you've lost all of your Bitcoin. The whole game is if you're in a secular bull market, just don't lose control of your tokens. Own own your Bitcoin all the way through, and you have a risk of screwing that up for the extra 5% income or 10% income.
在
At
什么?在以太坊就完全不同了,因为你在质押。所以你会自然获得网络奖励。
what? In in Ethereum, very different world because you're staking. So you're getting naturally rewarded in the network.
质押是什么意思?
What does that mean, staking?
意思是,在比特币中,矿工通过解决算法计算获得奖励。而在以太坊、Solana、Sui等大型区块链中,你通过保护网络安全获得奖励。质押代币来保障网络安全,因为越多人参与网络连接,你就能获得报酬。目前以太坊的收益率大概是4%。
What it means is in in Bitcoin, you actually get miners basically get rewarded for solving the the algorithm, the computation. In Ethereum and Solana and Sui and the other big blockchains, you basically get rewarded for securing the network. So you stake your tokens to secure the network because the more people then have this network connectivity between them, and you get paid for that. So in Ethereum right now, it's probably 4% yield.
好的。我试着用十岁小孩能理解的方式来总结一下。
Okay. So just to I'll try and summarize this like a ten year old.
但这没有风险。你并没有在其中获得杠杆效应。
But there's no risk in that. You're not getting leverage in that.
所以如果我选择购买以太坊——这是一种加密货币,我可以把我价值10万美元的以太坊,在手机上点几下就能转移。我可以按一个按钮把它质押起来。质押后,我实际上是在用我的以太坊来保障网络安全,让整个系统更安全地运行。作为回报,他们每月会支付给我相当于4%的收益。
I so if I choose to buy Ethereum, which is a form of cryptocurrency, I can take my $100,000 of of Ethereum, and on my phone, in a couple of clicks, I can move it. I can press a button and move it so that it is staked. And when when it's staked, I am basically using my Ethereum to secure the network to make the whole thing more secure so it can run properly. And in return, they'll give me 4% of it as a payment every month.
不是每月4%,而是按月支付。按月支付。
Well, not 4% a month, but Monthly payments. Monthly payments.
年化4%的收益。对。所以你可以获得加密货币的利息。
Of 4% annualized. Yeah. So you can you can get interest on your crypto.
没错。本质上就是这样。如果你更老练些,想追求更高收益,还有收益率增强方案。就像我们讨论过高收益银行账户,加密货币领域也有高收益版本,最高能获得30%的收益。
Yes. Essentially. Then if you're a little more sophisticated, a little bit racier, there are then yield enhancements. So we talked about high yield bank accounts. There's high yield versions in crypto, and you can get up to 30%.
但这时候你就在承担风险了。
But now you're taking risks.
我还可以用我的以太坊进行抵押贷款。实际上我曾经这么做过,现在已经不这么做了。但我当时持有一千个以太坊,我把它——
And I can also loan against my Ethereum. So I actually did this at one point. I don't do it anymore. But I I had a thousand Ethereum, and I and I put it I
换成美元或者
took a dollars or a
一千个以太坊。是啊,天哪。对,我懂。
thousand Ethereum. Yeah. Fucking gosh. Yeah. I know.
其实我前段时间转投了比特币,大概几个月前吧,可能时机不对。这就是为什么梅兰妮当时那么忙。你该打电话问我的,我知道。妈的。但你也知道,人们总是情绪化的。
I actually I switched into Bitcoin a little while ago, so a couple of months back, but probably bad timing. This is why Melanie was busy. You should have called me I know. Fuck. But, you know, this people are emotional.
我当时用它做了抵押贷款,借了几百万美元去买其他加密货币资产。最让我惊讶的是,整个过程不需要打电话给任何人,不用联系银行,只需在手机上点几下按钮。我那一千个以太坊,立刻就换来了几百万美元现金直接到账。但我最终没这么做,因为市场波动太大了。
I had a loan against it, so I borrowed a couple of million dollars at at one point to buy some more other crypto assets against my Ethereum, and it was surprising to me that I didn't have to call anybody. I didn't have to ring a bank. I could just click a couple of simple buttons on my phone. And this a thousand Ethereum I had, I managed to get a couple of million dollars paid straight away in cash straight to me. But I chose not to do that because the markets are super volatile.
但这确实是极其高效的方式。比如说你持有价值10万美元的比特币——也就是一个比特币,你可以用它抵押借出2万美元
But but it is incredibly efficient, effective way of people if you were to let's say you had a $100,000 of Bitcoin, one Bitcoin, to borrow $20,000 against it
没错。
Yeah.
这风险并不大。
That's not very risky.
或者用5000美元对冲5000美元。
Or $5,000 against Or 5,000.
无论如何,这风险都很小。或者如果你持有其他可质押的货币,风险极低,几乎可以忽略不计。就像借钱给美国政府,或者说借钱给以太坊网络——以太坊的政府。这是相当不错的增值方式
Whatever it is, it's not very risky. Or if you're in a different currency where you can stake it, very little risk, very, very little risk. It's like lending to the US government, I. Lending to the to the government of Ethereum, the Ethereum network. That's a pretty decent way of of enhancing
股票很难做到这点。如果你持有5000美元股票,想用它们贷款很困难,对吧?确实。我年轻时好不容易攒了1万美元买了脸书股票,当时根本找不到简单的途径用这些股票贷款。直到后来我在欧洲有了私人投资银行,他们才问我要不要用蓝筹股抵押贷50%的额度。
It's hard to do that with stocks. It's hard to get a loan against your stocks if you have $5,000 of stocks, isn't it? Yeah. It's typical I mean, when I was when I was younger and I had I bought $10,000 of Facebook stock when I finally got some money, I couldn't think I couldn't see a simple way of taking a loan against my Facebook stock. It wasn't until later when I had a private investment bank in Europe that my private investment bank were like, do you want 50% of your blue chip stocks as a loan?
是的。这种服务通常只面向高净值客户。不过我想稍微质疑下质押收益——虽然4%近乎无风险,但以太坊价格波动本身始终存在风险,对吧?
Yeah. It's probably usually reserved for people with more assets. But I do wanna push back a little bit on the staking yield. I do understand it's 4% virtually risk free, but there are is are always gonna be risks with, you know, the price of Ethereum. Right?
因为你的收益是以太坊币支付的。所以这实际上是
So, like, you're getting paid In Ethereum. Ethereum. And so this is a
关键所在。明白吗?你的风险取决于你质押的币种
key thing. Right? Is your your risk is the is the currency you are staking
如果以太坊价格下跌50%,那么你质押的以太坊对应的法币价值——抱歉——可能会缩水。相比之下,如果你选择年化4%的高收益储蓄账户,它有联邦存款保险公司担保,几乎是...
in. So if Ethereum goes down 50%, then your fiat value of Ethereum, sorry, of your stake could go down versus, you know, if you're getting a 4% high yield savings account, it's backed by the FDIC. It's virtually this
零风险的。
free.
此外还存在另一个风险,以太坊实际上采用的是年度质押机制。哦,我明白了。大部分质押业务都集中在像Leidah这样的少数机构手中,它们正在转向短期质押。因此存在期限错配问题,这蕴含了一定风险。
And there is another risk as well as Ethereum is actually annual staking. Oh, I see. And most of it is being done via a few businesses like Leidah, which are turning into short term staking. And so there's a duration mismatch that has some elements of risk in.
你想
What do
要什么?
you want?
抱歉,您先说,
Sorry. Go ahead,
先生。好的。好的。
sir. Okay. Okay.
我正想问,你什么时候能拿到收益?以太坊质押是每月支付一次,还是按年结算?
I was gonna say, when do you get paid? The with the Ethereum stake, you get paid every month, or do you get paid on the year?
我是按月领取收益的。每月一次。好的。那养老金呢?退休金方面。
I was getting paid monthly. Monthly. Okay. What about pensions? Retirement.
退休金。在英国我们称之为养老金,我想你们那边叫401k。但在全球范围内,尤其在西方世界,这基本上是相同的概念。
Retirement. So in The UK, we call it a pension. I think you guys call it a four zero one k. But over across the world, it's pretty much the same. Across the Western world, anyway.
如果我25岁或30岁,是否应该开始缴纳养老金作为未来致富的途径?这是个明智的选择吗?
If I'm 25 or 30 or whatever, should I should I be paying into my pension as a way to generate to make myself wealthy someday? Is that a smart idea?
我没有401k账户,也没有个人退休账户。但人们青睐这类账户的原因是它们属于延税账户——无论我现在或将来缴税,投入的资金都能在那里增值,直到提取时才需纳税。不过存在几个问题。
I don't have a four zero one k. I don't have an IRA. But the reason why people like these accounts and why they can work for some people is because they are tax deferred accounts, meaning I can put my money in, whether I pay taxes now or later. The money will then sit there, grow, and I don't pay taxes until I pull my money out. But there's a couple problems.
首要问题是我对资金投向的控制权极小。虽然特朗普政府已签署关于401k投资范围的新行政令,但尚未落实。目前投资选项非常有限,主要是共同基金,且多数要收取管理费。
Problem number one is I have very little control over where my money can be invested. Maybe this will change. The Trump administration has passed a new executive order on four zero one k's to change which you could potentially invest in four zero one k's, but that hasn't happened yet. You have very limited options. They're primarily just mutual funds, and many of them have a fee.
据NerdWallet统计,92%的美国人不知道401k的费用明细。如果你不清楚自己的401k费率,现在就该去查清支出比率。投资选择本就有限,你还得永久支付费用——这意味着华尔街有人会持续收费直到你退休。其次,这笔钱在59岁前根本无法动用。
I think NerdWallet said 92% of Americans don't know what the four zero one ks fees are. So if you don't know what your four zero one ks fee is, this is your notice to go check what the expense ratio is, and you should know that. So you have very limited options. You're going to have to pay a fee, which means somebody on Wall Street is going to be paid forever until you retire. Number two, I can't touch this money until I'm 60 years old, 59.
如果这样做,我必须支付10%的罚金。第三点,整个讨论的核心是你们为了税收优惠才这么做。但就像我们之前谈到的,其实有很多税收优惠是401(k)计划之外的,这就是为什么我个人不喜欢它。不过这只是我的观点,对某些人来说它可能很棒,因为雇主可能会说‘我们会给你3%的匹配金’。
If I do, I have to pay a 10% penalty. And number three, the whole discussion is you're doing this for tax benefits. But kind of like we talked about earlier, there's a lot of tax benefits that you can get outside of a four zero one ks, which is why for me, I don't like it. But I'm not everybody. For some people, it can be a great place because your employer might say, We're going to give you a 3% match.
假设你向401(k)账户投入3000美元,公司100%匹配的话,他们可能也会往你的401(k)账户里额外存入3000美元。但与此同时,你也要承担相同的风险和顾虑。
So if you invest, let's just say, $3,000 into your four zero one and they match it 100%, they might also just throw $3,000 into your four zero one k, but you have the same risks and concerns along the way.
说实话,我觉得大多数人甚至不知道养老金是什么。我们虽然缴费,但根本不了解其运作机制。前几天在X平台上看到一场很有意思的辩论,有位英国人说‘我一辈子都在缴纳养老金,所以我理应享有它,等我需要时它肯定还在’。结果评论区所有人都在告诉他:这可不是随时能砸开的存钱罐。
I don't think most people even know what a pension is, to be honest. I think we pay into it, but we don't really know what's working. And I saw this really interesting debate take place on X the other day where someone was a guy was saying in The UK, I've paid into my pension my whole life Oh. So I deserve it, and it'll be there when I'm ready. And then everyone underneath it was telling him that, by the way, it's not like some piggy bank that you get to break open.
你工作时缴纳的养老金,其实是被用来支付当时需要领取养老金的人。
The money you paid into a pension was used to pay for the people that needed a pension when you were working.
你指的是美国的社保体系吧?在美国,雇员必须缴纳社保,也就是收入的6.2%。所以税负很重——既要缴纳所得税,还要交社保税。
So you're talking about Social Security in The United States. Because as an employee in The United States, you have to pay into Social Security. So 6.2% of your income. So you have a lot of taxes. You're going to have to pay income taxes on what you make, and then you have Social Security tax.
你的收入中有6.2%会单独划入社保基金(与所得税分开),同时雇主也要缴纳6.2%。理论上这笔钱会不断增值复利,等你退休后就能每年从这笔退休基金里领钱。
So on your income, you're going to pay 6.2% of that separately from your income tax, but 6.2% into this Social Security fund. And then your employer is also going to pay 6.2 into this fund. Yeah. This money, in theory, is supposed to grow and compound. That way, when you retire, you have this retirement fund that's going to pay you every single year.
你根本没有选择权。当然可以决定何时提取,但除此之外什么都做不了,完全由政府掌控。没错,这就是如今美国面临资金枯竭的社保体系。
You don't get to choose. I mean, you can choose when you pull it out, but you don't get to do anything with it. The government's going be in charge. Yeah. This is what is running out of money in The United States today.
为什么?因为如今二三十岁乃至四十多岁正在缴纳社保的人,他们支付的款项并非用于自己的退休金,而是用于支付当前退休人员的社保福利。
Why? Because people that are in their twenties, thirties, and forties that are paying into it today, it's not paying for their retirement. It's paying for the people who are retiring today to pay for their Social Security benefits.
这正是人们不理解的地方。他们以为自己是在往存钱罐里投钱,退休后就能打开罐子,靠这些钱度过余生。我研究过关于养老金的最大误解,首要误区就是人们认为退休后终身都能获得有保障的养老金。
And that's what people don't understand. They think they're paying into a piggy bank that they get to crack open, and that will pay for them as long as they live for the rest of their life. I was looking at the biggest misconceptions around pensions, and the first one was that my pension is guaranteed money for the entirety of my life once I retire.
某种程度上这没错。至少在美国,政府确实保证你会终身领取社保直至去世。但他们从不告诉你——也没有任何星号标注——的是支票的实际购买力。现实情况是:人们缴纳社保时以为这笔钱能支撑自己的退休生活。
Well, there there is some truth to that. The part in in The United States, at least, that you are guaranteed what what the what the wording is that you're gonna get the Social Security until you pass away. But the part that they never tell you, and there's no asterisk about this either, is how much the value of the check will be. So here's what's going on. People are paying into the Social Security Fund thinking that they're going to be able to fund their retirement.
历史上所有理财顾问都说退休保障如同三脚凳:401k计划是第一条腿,个人退休储蓄是第二条,社保是第三条。社保是强制缴纳的,除非你是投资者才能豁免——投资收入无需缴纳社保税。你要一直缴费到退休年龄才能开始领取。
Every financial advisor historically has said that retirement is a three legged stool. You have your four zero one ks, your personal retirement. You have your own personal savings, and then you have Social Security. Well, you pay into Social Security by force because you don't get to opt out of it unless you are an investor. You don't have to pay your Social Security income or Social Security taxes on your investment income, but you pay into this until you hit retirement age, and then you get to pull this money out.
现在政府的社保基金即将耗尽,但人们误解为政府将停止发放社保。其实他们会继续支付,只是通过印钞来兑现——就像你刚才说的。表面上看支票金额变大了...
Well, the government is running out of Social Security money, but people misconstrue that because they say, Oh, that means the government's no longer going to pay Social Security. That's not true. They'll still pay it, but they'll just print their way to pay it, which is what you've been talking about. So great. They're giving you a bigger check.
问题在于这张更大的支票买不到原来那么多东西。只要美国政府不违约,你确实能收到社保支票,只是它的实际购买力会远低于你的预期。
The problem with that bigger check is that bigger check can't buy you as much stuff. So yeah, based off what The United States Government says, assuming that they don't default, you're going to get the Social Security check. It's just not gonna be able to buy you as much as you thought before.
其他重大误解包括:认为雇主缴纳的金额足以支撑完整退休生活;把养老金等同于储蓄账户;以为随时可以支取;相信政府会在资金枯竭时兜底;觉得年轻时无需考虑养老问题;以及误认为养老金账户完全免税。
The other big misconceptions are that people think their employer is putting enough in to cover their full retirement. They think it's the same as a savings account. They think they can access it whenever they like. The government will cover them when it runs out, and I don't need to think about it until I'm older. And lastly, my pension pot is tax free.
大约二十年前发生的一个重大转变是从所谓的固定收益制转向了固定缴费制。以前在福特或美国航空公司等企业工作的人,退休后可以永久领取最后一年工资的60%。但由于人们寿命延长等因素,这些养老金计划纷纷面临破产。
So the big shift that happened around twenty years ago was a shift from what's known as defined benefit to divine contribution. So defined benefit used to work for Ford or American Airlines or whatever company. You retired. You got 60% of your final year's salary forever. That was bankrupting all of these pension plans because people were living longer, all the other stuff.
于是他们改革为固定缴费制。本质上就是你投入多少就能获得多少加上投资收益。但其中存在管理费,可能你选错了基金经理,或者当被问及'要投资债券还是股票'时——
And so they kind of changed it to define contribution. Basically, you get out what you put in plus the investment returns. But there's fees. Maybe you didn't give it to a good manager. Maybe you didn't know when they said, well, do you want to put it in bonds or equities?
如果你选了债券,增值幅度可能不理想。最终美国婴儿潮一代的平均退休储蓄,我记得大概是10万美元左右。
You're like, bonds, and it didn't grow as much, or whatever it was. And in the end, you're just not sure that you're the average $4.00 1 ks in The United States for a baby boomer, I believe, is about $100,000
具体年龄?婴儿潮一代现在65岁左右?目前应该是20万美元上下。
What age? A baby boomer, like 65? Yeah. I think it's right now around $200,000
哦,20万啊。但这...
Oh, 200 Okay. But it's
根本不够退休生活。
not enough to retire.
20万确实不够养老。这仅相当于每年2万用十年。美国养老金体系资金如此匮乏,这些人根本看不到希望。我们之前做的《退休危机》视频就详细解释过这个问题,当时引起了巨大反响。对于养老金领取者、婴儿潮一代乃至千禧世代而言,这个困局无解,所有人都必须做出改变来应对。
200,000 not enough to retire. That's ten years of $20 a year. So there's so little money in The US pension system particularly that there is no hope for these people. And this whole video on this called the retirement crisis became a huge viral success years ago, just to explain it. There is no way out of this for the pensioners, the boomers, all the millennials, and everyone's gonna have to change within this to to figure this stuff out.
我想你今天早些时候说过。你当时在谈论庞氏骗局。这里就有一个。但没人愿意承认,可大家都在不断投入资金维持这个体系运转,它之所以还能运行全靠人们持续注资。问题是流入的资金已经不够了。
I think you said it earlier today. You were talking about a Ponzi scheme. Here, you have one. But nobody wants to say that, but everyone is paying in to keep funding this thing, but the only way it's running is because people are paying it in. The problem is there's not enough money coming in.
因为因为记得吗记得吗我们最开始讨论过人口结构?年轻人越来越少了。
Because Because the remember the remember we talked at the beginning, the demographics? There's less and less young people.
年轻人越来越少是因为我们生育的孩子变少了。
There's less and less young people because we're having less babies.
但退休人口却极其庞大。这个循环会永远持续下去——因为我们还在生育,现在的婴儿就是二十年后的劳动力。我们可以据此推算未来,这个链条不会中断。
But there's tons of these retired people. So and this keeps going in perpetuity because we're having babies, so that's workers in twenty years' time. The babies now are workers in twenty years' time. We can forward project this. It doesn't stop.
那我们到底要怎么养活这么庞大的婴儿潮一代?仅美国就有7800万,是历史上同期规模最大的群体。我们根本负担不起。
So how the hell are we going to pay for this massive amount of baby boomers, which is in The United States, 78,000,000 of them, largest cohort in history at the time? We can't pay for them.
所以现在有人提议对比特币市值征税,或对资产价值征税,再或对投资收入征税。
And this is where the proposals are to tax your Bitcoin, the value of your Bitcoin, or tax the value of your assets, or tax your investment income.
但英国也面临同样困境。全球各国都面临相同的难题。所有人。
But The UK has got the same. This whole wealth everybody's got the same problem. Everybody.
汉弗莱,关于退休危机,你有什么看法?
What do think, Humphrey, in terms of retirement crisis?
我认为我对此有不同的见解。首先,我想杰斯佩里、廷罗,你们刚才在讨论社会保障对吧?是的。但我觉得我对退休问题整体上有不同的观点。
I think that so I have a different take on well, think, first of all, I think Jesperi, Tinro, you guys were talking and you were talking about Social Security, right? Yeah. But I have a different take on retirement altogether, I think.
嗯。
Yeah.
我认为401k计划对普通人来说是有益的,因为它是一种强制储蓄机制。很多人除非雇主提供,否则不会主动向退休账户存钱,对吧?所以整体匹配机制在行为金融学上是很好的设计。就像说,如果我这样做,就能从雇主那里得到些额外资金,至少我存了些钱而不是分文不剩。
I think 401s are good for the average person because it's a forced savings mechanism. A lot of people wouldn't contribute to a retirement account unless the employer offered it, right? And so whole match thing is a great thing for behavioral finance. It's like, Okay, if I do this, I get some free money for my employer, and at least I'm saving some money instead of nothing.
所以为那笔钱工作完全是免费的。
And so working for that money is absolutely free.
为不了解的人解释一下,401k是指你同意与雇主共同投资一个资金池。
A four zero one k for anyone that doesn't understand is you agreed to invest in a investment pot alongside your employer.
它更像是因受雇于企业而获得的个人退休账户。是的。你可以选择在401k账户内进行投资,这类账户通常享受税收递延,意味着你在晚年才需要为此缴税。
It is more like an individual retirement account that is awarded to you because you work for an employer. Yeah. You have the option to invest within a four zero one k, and that four zero one k is typically tax deferred, which means that you pay taxes on it later in life.
那这和社保有什么区别?
And what's the difference between that and a Social Security?
社保是一项政府项目,要求你从每笔薪水中缴纳一定比例进入这个大池子。当你退休后,政府会每月给你寄送社保支票。
A Social Security is a government program where you are required to pay into it every paycheck that goes into this big pot. And then when you do retire, the government will send you a Social Security check every month.
好的。
Okay.
但我仍然认为有很多方式可以实现退休,并且带着某种自由提前退休。你听说过Coastfire吗?
But I I still think that there are plenty of ways to retire and retire with some sort of freedom, retire early. Have you heard of Coastfire before?
没有。
No.
Coastfire是Reddit上流行的一种新概念,属于财务独立提前退休(FIRE)的变体。其核心是让你的储备金达到某个临界点后,之后无需再投入一分钱。假设达到某个合理数额后,只要投资标普500指数,其回报就足以让你在65岁正常退休时实现完全退休。这并非完全意义上的提前退休,而是达到所谓'海岸线数字'后,你在职业选择上会有更大自由度。比如不必再为厌恶的雇主工作,可以选择更符合生活方式的工作。
Coastfire is another newer thing that's, that's kind of on Reddit, but it's a variation of Financial Independence Retire Early. And it's essentially you get your nest egg to a point where you don't have to invest any dollar into it after that, but because you get it to, let's say, a certain number, and that number is usually pretty reasonable, the investment returns if you're invested in the S and P 500 will get you to a full retirement by the time you are able to retire at 65. So it doesn't mean you retire early completely, but it means that if you get to your coast fire number, which is what it's called, maybe you have more freedom of choice in what you're working on. So, like, maybe you don't have to work for the employer that you absolutely hate. You can maybe go do something that's a little bit more suited to your lifestyle.
你仍在工作,但不再是为退休储蓄而工作,因为你已达成海岸线数字。举例来说,35岁时这个数字大约是15万美元。如果在35岁前存够15万,以8%年化收益计算,30年后退休时将拥有150万美元。这对那些纠结'我到底能不能退休'的人来说更容易接受。虽然不是完全退休——不会在阿鲁巴沙滩上翘脚度假——但你仍会从事某些工作。我个人认为,如果完全退休无所事事,我可能会无聊到发疯,对吧?
You're still working, but you're not working to save for retirement anymore because you hit that coast fire number. So for example, at the age of 35, I think the coast fire number is like $150,000 If you can hit 150 ks by '35, if you have thirty years of investment returns at 8%, you'll have $1,500,000 by the time you retire, which is a little bit more palatable for people that are having a hard time wrapping their heads around, am I ever going to retire? They're not going to retire in that they're not going to be kicking up their feet on the sand beaches of Aruba, but you're still gonna be doing something. And I I personally think if I was retired, I'd be so bored out of my mind doing nothing. Right?
所以我想着手做点事情。这个想法就是,你不必非得做自己讨厌的工作或类似的事情。
So I'd like to work on something. The idea is you just don't have to work for maybe the job you hate or something like that.
那么如果我攒够15万美元存款的话,嗯。
So if I hit the $150,000 in savings Mhmm.
而我
And I
把它投入标普500指数,就能获得
put it into the S and P 500 and get the
8%的回报率。
8% return.
8%的回报率。到65岁时,我将拥有100多万。
8% return. By the age of 65, I'll have 1 point something million.
150.9万。没错。
1.509. Yeah.
但那又有什么价值呢?
But what's that worth then?
确实如此。就是这样。通货膨胀是等式的另一部分,它会如何影响实际价值?
That's true. There that's it. That is another part of the equation is with inflation, what is it gonna be worth?
这就是你正在尝试做的事吗?因为我记得一小时前你说过,你只是想提前退休之类的话。
And is this what you're trying to do? Because I remember an hour ago, you said, I'm just trying to retire earlier words to that effect.
是的。我的意思是,我希望达到'海岸财务自由'状态。这个概念可以根据个人定义,但我认为自己已经接近甚至达到了——能够从事热爱的工作,同时退休储备金会逐步增长,到60、65岁时就能轻松退休了。所以
Yeah. I mean, I'd like to be coastfire. And coastfire is, you know, however you would like to define it. But, you know, I already think I'm close, or if not, I've already reached it, which is like I get to work on the things that I love, and I I think that my retirement nest egg will eventually grow to a point where by the time I hit 60, 65, I'll be able to coast. So did
你具体计算过需要达到的数字目标吗?
did you create a number, do the math on what you'd need to get to?
当然。你可以预估未来年度开支,然后逆向推算出需要积累的金额。
Yes. Okay. Yeah. So you can project out your expenses of what you think your expenses are going to be on an annual basis, and then kind of work backwards to that number.
明白了。
Okay.
是啊,很多
Yeah. A lot
数学计算,但你差不多必须这么做。
of math involved, but you kinda have to do it.
想聊聊你的困境还是什么?行啊,说吧。退休危机,这确实令人担忧。
Do want to chat your pity or something? Yeah. Do it. Retirement crisis. That's concerning.
这确实令人担忧。所以你的策略是采用'海岸财务自由'方案?
That's concerning. So your approach is to do the coast fire thing?
我的策略是保持自律,坚持储蓄和投资,真正实现可能退休的目标。
My approach is let's stay disciplined, consistent with our savings and investing, and actually get to a place where retirement might be possible.
我觉得这个想法很棒。就像我开始实践'显化命运'时一样。当然,你会说,我需要这个目标,该怎么实现?
I mean, I I love that idea. And that's the same as when I started with the manifesting your your destiny. Sure. You say, well, I need this goal. How do I do it?
我们这样做,让投资增值。对吧?这做法很聪明。然后你就能承担更大风险了。没错。
We do this and grow up our investments. Right? It's it's brilliant to do that. And then you can take more risk. Sure.
如果你将其孤立来看,那么现在建造的任何胶囊舱,我都可以随心所欲。这与我对家的理念如出一辙。确切地说,就像我已经为生活去除了风险。现在我可以承担风险,这确实是件很棒的事。我欣赏你表达的方式——未来的我想要这样。
If you isolate that and say, well, any capsule I build now, I can do whatever I want. That was the same idea that I had with the home. It's exact it's like, I've derisked my life. Now I can take risk, and that's a really nice thing to do. And I love the way that you do it by saying, well, my future self wants this.
嗯。为了实现这一点,我现在需要这样做。嗯。然后它应该能解决那个问题。当然,你的设想中总存在风险,但
Mhmm. For me to do that, I need to do this now. Mhmm. And then it should take care of that. Now there's always risk in your imagine, but
然后你就有额外的钱可以做任何想做的事。对吧?不过
And then you have extra dollars to do whatever you want with. Right? So But
我也很欣赏你一直自律地坚持自己的喜好和认知。是的。对此我很感激。谢谢。因为你提到90%资金都投入了指基和ETF。
I also love that you've been disciplined on, like, what you like and what you know. Yeah. I appreciate that. Thank you. Because you said I think 90% are in index funds and ETFs.
这正是我会推荐给别人的配置。哦抱歉。好吧。就我个人而言,我大约60%是指数基金。
That's what I would recommend for people. Oh, sorry. Okay. For me personally, I'm like 60% index funds.
即便如此,这个比例已经相当高了,而且没有那种——你知道的——追逐新奇事物的综合征或随便你怎么称呼它。我是说,那种
But still, that's that's pretty high and and not having that, you know, shiny object syndrome or whatever you wanna call it. I mean, that that
这简直是在指控我有喜新厌旧的毛病。我
that's I'm accusing me of having shiny objects. I was
只是想让大家都能参与进来。是的,是的。但无论是什么,保持自律都很重要。我认为这是一种非常宝贵的品质。
just trying to engage everybody here. Yeah. Yeah. But but whatever it might be to to to be disciplined. I I think that's such a valuable trait.
而且,你提到了稀缺心态。我认为这也是一种自律的心态。所以我会重新表述这一点。我觉得你做得非常出色。
And, you know, you talked about the scarcity mindset. I think that's also a disciplined mindset that you have that So I I would I would reframe that. I think you've done an excellent job.
我认为个人理财是个人的事。
Think personal finance is personal.
好了,各位。我想我找到史蒂夫了。嘉宾已经到了。准备好了吗?
Alright, guys. I think I got Steve. The guest is here. Ready?
进来吧。
Come in.
天啊,史蒂夫。你在干什么?
Oh my god, Steve. What are you doing?
这是Boncharge面膜。对瑕疵、皱纹有好处,还能清洁皮肤。它是红光面膜。你以前没用过吗?没有。
This is the Boncharge face mask. It's good for blemishes, wrinkles, clears up the skin. It's red light. Have you not used it before? No.
从未尝试过这个。它真的非常非常好。它会在你脸上照射红光,有助于增加和促进胶原蛋白的生成。其实是因为我太太才发现的。看到她戴着它,连续几个晚上都把我吓坏了。
Never tried this before. It's it's really, really good. It shines red light on your face, which helps increase and boost collagen production. Actually found it out because of the missus. Seeing her wearing it, she terrified me a couple of nights in a row.
我原以为它是用来吓人的,但实际上,它对皮肤真的非常非常好。所以他们是这个播客的赞助商,我已经每天使用它大约一年半了。
I thought it was to scare people with, but actually, it's really, really good for your skin. So they are a sponsor of the podcast, and I've been using it every day for about a year and a half now.
哇。你要去。哇,史蒂夫。
Wow. You're going. Wow, Steve.
我过得很好。
I'm going great.
是的。而且,Boncharge全球发货,退货方便,所有产品享有一年保修。所以访问boncharge.com/diary,全场商品可享25%折扣。但你必须通过那个链接下单。就是boncharge.com/diary,使用代码diary。
Yes. And, Boncharge ships worldwide with easy returns and a year long warranty on all of their products. So visit boncharge.com/diary for 25% off on any product site wide. But you have to order through that link. That's boncharge.com/diary with code diary.
确保你把我接下来要说的话保密。我邀请你们中的1万人更深入地进入CEO日记。欢迎来到我的核心圈子。这是我向世界推出的一个全新的私人社区。我们有很多令人难以置信的事情发生,但你们从未看到过。
Make sure you keep what I'm about to say to yourself. I'm inviting 10,000 of you to come even deeper into the diary of a CEO. Welcome to my inner circle. This is a brand new private community that I'm launching to the world. We have so many incredible things that happen that you are never shown.
我们有录制对话时我iPad上的简报。我们有从未发布的片段。我们有与嘉宾的幕后对话,还有我们从未发布过的剧集,以及更多内容。在这个圈子里,你将直接与我接触。你可以告诉我们你希望这个节目是什么样子,希望我们采访谁,以及你希望我们进行什么样的对话。
We have the briefs that are on my iPad when I'm recording the conversation. We have clips we've never released. We have behind the scenes conversations with the guests and also the episodes that we've never ever released and so much more. In this circle, you'll have direct access to me. You can tell us what you want this show to be, who you want us to interview, and the types of conversations you would love us to have.
但请记住,目前我们仅限前10,000名在关闭前加入的成员。所以如果你想加入我们的私人封闭社区,请点击下方描述中的链接或访问d0accircle.com。我会在那里与你交流。关于纪律这一点,汉弗莱,我看过你的几个视频,你谈到了你停止花钱的事项。有种说法是,为了致富、储蓄或实现财务目标,你不该喝星巴克咖啡。
But remember, for now, we're only inviting the first 10,000 people that join before it closes. So if you wanna join our private close community, head to the link in the description below or go to d0accircle.com. I will speak to you there. On that point of discipline, Humphrey, I have seen a couple of videos from you where you talk about the things that you stopped spending money on. And there is a narrative that says, you know, in order to get rich or to save or to get to where you wanna go with your financial goals, you should not have the Starbucks coffee.
确实。你不该做这些事。你停止在哪些方面消费?你的判断框架是什么?
Sure. You should not do these things. What what did you stop spending money on, and what's your framework there?
我回顾了2014年以来的开支,观察消费习惯的变化。首先停掉的是爱彼迎住宿。过去它性价比高且体验独特,但如今都已商业化。加上清洁费等附加费用,最终花费更多却不如酒店便利。
So I looked at I took a look into my expenses from 2014 and onward and just kinda, like, saw the differences in how my spending habits have changed. The first thing I stopped spending money on are Airbnbs. So Airbnbs used to be a great value. They used to be a unique experience, but these days, they're all kind of commercialized. And I feel like with the cleaning fees and all these fees, you end up paying more for less convenience as a hotel.
这是第一项。第二是停止批量购买食品。虽然听起来随意,但我是单身汉。有时买两加仑牛奶根本喝不完,对吧?
So that's number one. I stopped buying food in bulk. I know that sounds kind of random, but I'm a single guy. Sometimes I I get two gallons of milk, I can't finish it. Right?
结果只能倒掉牛奶。或者从好市多一次买48个鸡蛋——老天,我虽然健身但也无法两周内吃完这么多。明白吗?这是另一项改变。还有...
So I'm pouring milk down the drain. Or I'm buying 48 eggs at a time from Costco, and I'm just like, dude, like, I I I mean, I like the gym, but I can't eat 48 eggs in, two weeks or whatever that that time is. Right? So that's that's another. And then another
我做的另一件事是
thing I did was
我开始更换车险,因为搬到了旧金山市内。现在年驾驶里程从15,000英里降到3,000英里。仅通过致电车险公司,每月就省下约40美元,只因驾驶需求大幅减少。
I started to switch my car insurance because I moved into San Francisco, the city. I'm driving less. So I used to drive 15,000 miles a year. I drive 3,000 miles a year now. And just by calling my car insurance, I was able to save, like, $40 a month just because my driving requirements are much lower.
所以那些就像是解释一下。对。你知道,汽车保险费率取决于你开车的多少。如果你开车少了,搬到了城市里,那么你的费率应该会下降。但我认为有些人对他们的保险公司有点过于忠诚了。
So those are like Explain that. Yeah. So, you know, a car insurance rates are dependent on how much you drive. And if you drive less and you move to a city, then your rates should come down. But I think some people are a little bit too loyal to their providers.
他们不愿意比较费率,因为这很麻烦。你并不真的想做这件事。它需要时间。但我认为这样做,花一个小时给你的保险公司打电话,看看不同的保险公司,不仅仅是汽车保险,还有房屋保险,你可以省下很多钱。因为保险某种程度上是商品化的。
They're not willing to compare rates because it's painful. You don't really want to do it. It takes time. But I think doing that, spending an hour calling your insurance provider, looking at different insurance providers, not just for cars, but for homes, too, you can save a lot of money. Because insurance is kind of commoditized.
所以就像是,你可以从很多不同的保险公司那里获得保障。你不妨让他们为你的业务展开一场竞价战。
So it's like, you're gonna get coverage from many different providers. You might as well put them kind of in a bidding war for your business.
我曾经卖过汽车保险。所以,你知道,我曾经
I used to work selling car insurance. So, you know, I used
那是我
to it was one
的电话销售工作之一。
of my telesales jobs.
我也做过那个。
I've done that as well.
是的。那件事当时很有趣。我觉得人们不知道这个。但当我坐在汽车保险呼叫中心时,屏幕上有一个可以左右滑动的条,我能根据销售情况给你折扣。如果我觉得要失去你这单生意,只需把条向左滑,就能降低你的首付和月付。
Yeah. And that that was interesting there. I don't think people know this. But as I sat there in the the car insurance call center, there's this bar on the screen that I can move in either direction to basically give you a discount based on how the sale is going. So if I really think I'm gonna lose your sale, all I do is slide the bar to the left, and it brings your your upfront payment down and your monthly payment down.
嗯。但如果我觉得这单很容易成交,我就能把报价条往上推,给你提供更详细的保险和其他附加服务。我觉得人们没意识到所有保险都是可以协商的,甚至包括手机保险这些。有时候直到你说要退订,他们才会突然给你五折优惠。
Mhmm. But if I thought the sale was easy, I could bring the bar up in terms of the price I quote you and give you breakdown insurance and all these other upsells. And so I don't think people realize how negotiable all of their insurances are, even their their phone insurance and all these other things. And sometimes you don't figure out until you you take you say you're gonna quit, and then suddenly they give you some great offer where they're gonna give you 50% off.
对。我从来不按成本销售,而是按收入销售。明白吧。
Yep. Yeah. And the other way of approaching it is I never really sold for costs. I sold for income. Okay.
这意思是说,只要你不做得太过分,你的生活方式...对吧?比如我真要放弃去餐厅或点外卖吗?
And that is saying that is saying, okay. Your lifestyle as long as you're not being ridiculous. Right? It's like, do I really want to not go to a go to a restaurant or get that Uber Eats or whatever?
明白。
Understand.
是啊。因为那是在惩罚自己。总这样做并不好。需要很强的自律性,而自律很难。
Yeah. Because that's penalizing yourself. And that's not a nice thing to do always. Right? It takes a lot of discipline, and discipline is hard.
但如果你在增加收入方面付出同等自律,实际上能让生活更好。现在我们都身兼数职——我做三四份工作,你也是。我们都有不同的收入来源。
But if you've got an equal an opposite amount of discipline in solving for income, you actually move your lifestyle further ahead. The rise of I I do three, four jobs. You do three, four We all do lots of different things now. You do as well. We've all got different income streams.
与其纠结成本基础,不如把精力花在思考如何增加收入来源上。某种程度上确实如此。我们同意,就像史蒂文的朋友给他发信息说的那样,他急需挽救成本基础。但总的来说,如果你在制定人生规划,通过解决收入问题会比削减成本更快实现所谓的‘海岸财务自由’(或任何类似的称呼)。
You're almost better off to spend your energy thinking about how do I increase my income stream than your cost basis. At a certain Yeah. We agree, like Steven's friend who sent him the message, he needs to desperately rescue his cost base. But generally, if you're looking at a life plan, you'll get to your coast fire or whatever it's called quicker by solving for income than you will for cost.
我只是认为削减开支是更容易实现的目标,毕竟每个人都能稍微缩减开支,但不可能人人都说‘我明天收入就能翻倍’。那是个更棘手的问题。而且我觉得如果你想...
I just think lower hanging fruit is solving for expenses, which is like everyone can cut back a little bit, but everyone can't just like say, I'm gonna make two x more tomorrow. That's kind of a harder problem. And I think if you want
其实你只需要权衡时间成本。我是说,如果你从事低收入工作,确实可以开优步赚外快,或者批量接单...
Well, you just trade off your time. Because you I mean, you can. If you're in a lower earning job Mhmm. You can drive an Uber and earn extra money, or you can do a bulk
明白你的意思了。
what you're saying.
没错。如今世界运转的方式就是多元化收入流,因为生活成本已经变得如此高昂...
Yeah. It's like multiple revenue streams is now the way the world works because the cost of living has become so expensive
嗯。
Mhmm.
以至于每个人都不得不打多份工。但借助科技手段,我们实际上能更轻松地实现这一点。
That everyone's having to do multiple jobs. But with technology, we can actually do it much easier.
我也赞同Tumphrey的观点,不过,今天你只需带份便当或许就能获得30%的加薪,或者
I Tumphrey's point as well, though, you can get a 30% pay rise today just by maybe bringing a packed lunch or
当然。
Sure.
步行去某处或做其他类似的事,而要争取30%的加薪可能更难。
Walking somewhere or whatever else, and it's probably harder to get a 30% pay rise.
我确信关于
I'm sure about the
天。我认为这取决于你处于人生的哪个阶段。就拿午餐的例子来说,现在如果你坚持带午餐,打包午餐需要时间。根据你时间的价值,那一小时可能值20美元,也可能是2000美元。
day. Think it depends on which stage of life you're in. Because now if you just stick with the lunch if you're on the lunch example, packing lunch costs time. And depending on how much your time is worth, that one hour of time could be $20. It could be $2,000.
我认为这是关键的区别。而且我完全同意在某些时候和地方必须削减开支。但在某个阶段,你看,我在很多方面仍然很节俭,但在时间上,我们的办公室位于底特律市中心,我通勤需要45分钟,但我并不自己开车。
And I think that's the the key difference. And and I think there's definitely times and places you gotta cut. I fully agree with you on that. But I think at a certain stage look. I'm I am still cheap with my money in multiple places, but I have when it comes to time so our office is in Downtown Detroit, and my commute there is forty five minutes, but I don't drive.
我的做法是让别人开车送我。这样做的原因是我可以坐在后座工作。我们每天发布财经新闻,有时市场简报中会有重要的事情发生。如果我自己开车,我不想一边开车一边发短信。
What I do is I get driven there. And the reason why I do that is because I can sit in the back seat and work. And one of the things that we publish daily financial news. So sometimes something really happening in the with our market briefs where, oh, is important. And if I'm driving, I don't wanna be texting and driving.
所以,我选择支付优步或其他服务的费用,每天花四十五分钟去,四十五分钟回,钱从账户里不断流出。但我换回了一个半小时的时间,这远比支付给司机的费用更有价值。我认为这取决于你的人生阶段——如果是在更早之前,我绝不会这么做。
So instead, I pay for an Uber or whatever, and I go that forty five minutes there, forty five minutes back, and it's money out of my account every single day. But I get back an hour and a half of my time, which is worth way more than whatever I'm paying in my driver fees. So I I think it depends on where you are in this stage of life because I wouldn't do that if this was way before.
最大的问题——这是个开放性问题。你们认为普通人最常犯的金钱错误是什么?
What is the biggest this is an open question to everybody. What do you think the biggest money mistake the average person makes is?
他们花光了所有的钱。两个'S'陷阱:要么挥霍一空,如果跨过这个阶段,又会把全部积蓄死存起来。
They spend all their money. The the two s's. You you're spending all of your money, and if you get past that, then you're saving all of your money.
这两种都是错误?
Both of them are mistakes?
这两种都是错误。
Both of them are mistakes.
也就是说,让钱闲置在银行账户里毫无作为。
So just having your money sat in a bank account doing nothing.
你的财富每天都在缩水。
You're becoming poorer every single day.
我认为大多数人并不了解这一点。我有个朋友,他的银行存款多年来一直在稳步增长。我记得问他,你现在银行账户里有多少钱?他采取了一种非常缓慢的积累方式。他是一名自由职业者,经营着自己的生意。
I don't think most people know this. I've got a friend who's steadily compounded his his bank balance over time. And I remember asking him, so how much money do you now have in your bank account? He's taken a really slow approach over time. He runs a business as a freelancer.
他说,大概有一百万美元吧。我当时很惊讶,这些钱就只是放在你的银行账户里?他回答说是的。因为他害怕,不知道该怎么处理这笔钱,所以觉得存在银行是最安全的选择。
And he goes, I think probably about a million dollars. I was like, it's just sat in your bank account. And he was like, yeah. And because he's scared. Like, he's scared he doesn't know what to do with it, so he thinks just putting it in the bank account is the safest possible thing to do.
但这实际上是一种必然的损失。如今美国普通银行账户的平均利率(不是高收益账户)只有0.1%到0.5%,低得可怜。假设通胀率是3%(这还是官方数据,不是人们实际感受到的通胀),意味着你的购买力每年净损失约2.5%。如果账户里有一百万美元,相当于每年损失2.5万美元的购买力。
Well, it's a guaranteed loss. If your bank account the average bank account in The United States today, not the high yield accounts, but the average account is paying 0.1%, 0.5%, don't know, something super low. If we just say inflation is 3%, meaning the cost you have to spend out of the bank account to buy something is going up by 3%, and that's the reported numbers, not the real inflation that many people feel, well, that means there's a net loss of two and a half percent on that. So if I have a million dollars there, that's $25,000 of lost buying power.
Ro,考虑到我的听众很多是企业主——无论是个人工作室还是大公司——你认为他们是否应该把闲置资金投入比特币?
Ro, do you think companies because a lot of my audience are companies, whether they're, you know, one person companies or big companies. Do think they should be putting their money that they have sat in their account into Bitcoin?
本质上说,以微软为例,他们持有巨额现金。微软用现金做什么?主要是现金类投资,偶尔收购其他公司、建设数据中心等不动产,或者回购自家股票。这三种行为都源于货币贬值,而且这些资产每年都在变得更贵。
In essence, if you're Microsoft, they have huge cash piles. What does Microsoft buy with their cash? Really, they buy some investment stuff, but it's generally cash based. And then they may buy another company, or they may buy real estate data centers, let's say or they may buy their own shares back. All of those three things that they buy are driven by the debasement of currency, and they get more expensive every year.
而他们持有的现金回报率只有3.5%,这种做法其实很愚蠢。因为股东的资金并没有用于购买能真正提升公司价值的等价资产。
And they're holding a cash return of 3.5%. So it's stupid what they're doing. Because actually, all your shareholder cash is not buying the equivalent of the actual things that drive the value of the company.
那小型企业呢?如果现在有听众的公司账户里存着一两百万美元,而且并非全部需要用于现金流周转,这种情况该怎么处理?
So about small companies? What if there's people listening now that have companies where they've got a million, 2,000,000 in the in the bank? They probably don't need it all for cash flow reasons.
因此我认为,回到你最初的问题,投资与储蓄的关系常被误解。我认为投资更为重要。年轻时我曾犯过错误,因为恐惧心理让我极度规避风险,成为了一个储蓄者。虽然我从事投行工作,但实际上并未真正投资——我只是通过行业收入积累现金。
And so I do think that investing versus saving is misunderstood, to go back to your original question. I think investing is much more important. I made the mistake of being a saver when I was young because the the fear that you know, all of that stuff meant I was super risk averse. And I was an investment banker. I was investing, but I didn't so I made money from being in that industry, so I'm just going to hoard cash.
这种做法反而让我损失更大。直到目睹银行体系崩溃后,我决定不再这样——我要掌控自己的财务。企业经营也是同理:若产生现金流,就不该囤积大量现金,保持适度流动性投资才更有利。
I did worse for doing that. And then once we saw the banking system fail, I'm like, I'm not doing this anymore. I'm going to take control of my own finances. So the same is true of a business. If they're generating cash, they shouldn't be sitting on a massively large amount of cash, but some liquid investments, I think, massively help.
因为这能让现金为你和股东增值,这很重要。但绝不能放弃流动性——当你急需资金却无现金可用时,特别是对已积累的财富而言,那将是世上最糟糕的情况。
Because you're going to make your cash grow for you and your shareholders. And that's important. But but don't let go of your liquidity because when you really need it and you don't have cash, that's the worst thing in the world, particularly when you've saved the money.
那么你们RealVision的企业账户里...
So in your business bank account for Real Vision
是的。
Yeah.
你们会把部分资金配置加密货币吗?这取决于很多...
Do you put some of the the money into crypto? It depends. A lot of
资金主要用于公司增长性再投资。关键决策在于:资本如何增值?是通过业务再投资提升股价?还是利用储蓄池进行多元化投资?
it gets reinvested for growth within the company. Okay. So you're making the decision as does how's your capital gonna grow? Is it gonna grow grow your share price via reinvesting in the business? Or is it better to use the savings pool and buy other investments and diversify away?
这实际上取决于你的业务类型及其在增长周期中所处的阶段。但如果你是一家现金流稳定、常规的非增长型企业,那么你将持续产生现金。你可能已经提取了部分开发分红,在账面上购置了房产,完成了所有那些操作。确实,没有理由不采取一些相对保守的投资策略。
That really depends on your business, where it is in the growth cycle. But if you're like a cash generating, regular, non growth style business, then you're gonna be generating cash. You might have taken some dev dividends out and book bought a house and done all that thing. Yeah. There's no reason not to do some relatively conservative investment strategy.
汉弗莱,你曾为许多富人提供咨询建议。在金钱方面,富人们掌握哪些普通人所不了解的奥秘?因为当你窥见幕后真相时,会发现金钱游戏的潜规则。他们在资金运作上有哪些普通人既不知晓也无法复制的操作?
Humphrey, you worked with lots of rich people advising them. What is it that rich people know that the average person doesn't know as it relates to money? Because there are money games that you discover when you get to see behind the curtain. What is it that they're doing with their money that the average person isn't aware of or isn't able to do with their money?
富人通常更具纪律性。他们往往每天都会查看银行账户,明白吗?他们坚持做着那些经过十年二十年积累会产生巨大效果的小事。而且他们的思考维度是数十年计,而非仅仅关注本周要做什么。
Rich people are typically more disciplined. They're they're typically checking their bank account every day. Right? They're they're doing little things that compound into huge results at the end of ten or twenty years. And they're they're thinking in decades, not just what am I going to do this week.
对吧?他们现在就在为十年二十年后的自己做投资选择,而不是选择在当晚的足球比赛上押注一千英镑。因为他们深知今天运作的一千英镑,在十年二十年后将增值至一万甚至两万英镑。这本质上是一种长期思维与短期思维的差异。
Right? They're they're choosing investment choices for themselves in ten years, twenty years from now, instead of choosing sports betting on on the football match for a thousand pounds, you know, that night. Because they know that their thousand pounds working for them today will be worth, you know, 10,000, 20,000 in ten or twenty years. So it's more just like a long term mindset versus a short term mindset.
就像延迟满足。
Like delaying gratification.
延迟满足。正是如此。
Delaying gratification. Yes.
你刚才在记录什么?
What were you writing down there?
我当时正在记录这个系统是如何偏袒富人的,这非常不可思议,因为正如查理·芒格所说,给我看看激励机制,我就能告诉你结果。人们获得的不是10万美元,而是那些银行账户里有1000万的人。他们能获得所谓的无追索权贷款,这太神奇了,因为与你的朋友不同,他们不必偿还。所以无追索权贷款意味着你最终对这笔贷款不承担法律责任。
I was writing down how the system is rigged in the favor of rich people is it's extraordinary because it's the it's the Charlie Munger quote of show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome. What people get once you get it's not the 100,000, but it's like the people who've got 10,000,000 in their bank account. They get loans that are called nonrecourse loans. It's an extraordinary thing because unlike your friend, they don't have to pay it back. So a non recourse loan means you're not legally liable for the loan in the end.
当然,会有一些关于如何操作的条款。但他们为什么要这么做?为什么他们能得到这些优惠条件?为什么他们能在股票上市前获得私募配售?为什么他们总能得到最好的机会?
Now, there'll be some provisions on how to do it. But why are they doing this? Why are they getting these favorable terms? Why are they getting the private placements in stocks before they go public? Why are they getting all the best offers?
因为他们支付费用。因为他们向投资银行支付费用,而投资银行极度渴望这些人,因为他们有大量的金融活动。所以他们激励这些人。我们普通人根本接触不到这些。这和我一开始提到的对冲基金行业的情况如出一辙。
Because they pay fees. Because they pay fees to the investment banks, and the investment banks desperately want these people because they have a lot of financial activity. And so they incentivize them. None of us get a look in at all of that. It's the same thing that I talked about with the hedge fund industry in the beginning.
就像他们被某个阶段激励,获取比其他人更好的信息。我认为其中一部分原因在于,我们试图告诉人们的是:你不必玩同样的游戏。你不必支付任何人的费用。你买一个比特币,放在你的Coinbase账户里或其他地方。运行它不需要任何成本,而你的表现却能超过风险资本投资者。
It's like they were incentivized by a phase to get information that was better than everybody else. And I think part of that is the ability that all we're trying to say to people is you don't have to play the same game. You don't have to pay anybody's fees. You buy a Bitcoin, stick it in your Coinbase thing or whatever. It costs you nothing to run, and you're outperforming a venture capital investor.
还有一些简单的方法,比如购买指数基金。你不必为主动管理向华尔街支付数千美元。有办法破解这个系统,而且成本并不高。
There's simple things like buying an index fund. You're not paying the Wall Street complex thousands of dollars for active management. There's ways of hacking this, and it's not that expensive to do.
在我们转向Jaspreet之前,我认为你们俩都稍微提到了一点,你之前也说过,关系如何创造财富。因为我当时在那个公寓里观察这位亿万富翁时,看到的是他的朋友和过去与他有业务往来的联系人,他们获得了在这家公司上市前投资的优先分配权,这意味着第二天这些投资就会翻倍。但这些都是基于关系。所以,如果说有一种积累财富的策略,就像拉尔夫一开始说的,与人交往并建立良好的关系,我认为这一点真的非常、非常被低估了。我有个朋友,可以提他的名字,叫Harry Stubbings。
Just before we move to Jaspreet, one of the things that I think you kind of both alluded to a little bit and you said earlier on was about how relationships make money. And because what I was watching when I sat in that apartment with this billionaire is his friends and his contacts who had done business with him in the past were getting the allocation, the prime allocation of being able to invest just before this company went public, which means that the next day it would multiply. But those were relationships. So if if there is a strategy to to build wealth, it goes back to what Ralph said at the start, being around people and having good relationships is actually, I think, really, really unappreciated. I've got a friend, I can name my friend, called Harry Stubbings.
他运营一个名为20 VC的播客。在那个播客上,他与极其富有的人对话。Harry的播客没有乔·罗根的那么大。但因为Harry与地球上最富有的人进行了两小时的对话,并且持续这样做,他在欧洲建立了最大的投资基金之一,尤其是作为一个二十多岁的年轻人。我想,如果我没记错的话,他已经从这些关系中筹集了7.5亿美元。
He runs a podcast called 20 VC. And on that podcast, he sits with extremely rich people. The podcast Harry's podcast isn't as big as Joe Rogan's. But because Harry has had two hour conversations with the richest people on planet Earth and continues to do so, He's built one of the biggest investment funds in Europe, especially as, like, a guy in his twenties. I mean, I think he's raised, if I'm not mistaken, 750,000,000 just from the relationships.
他对我说,你知道吗,过去五到十年里我创造的最大价值杠杆并不是浏览量。有人比他拥有更多浏览量。关键在于他认识所有有钱人。我觉得我们在思考财富创造时低估了这一点,因为如果你能做到雷尔所说的那样,接近富人,以某种方式帮助他们,建立这些关系,它会持续带来回报,永远如此,不是吗?
And he said to me, he said, you know, the biggest value leverage I've built in the last five, ten years isn't like the views. People have more views than him. It's he he knows everyone rich. And and I think we underestimate that when we think about wealth creation because if you can do what Rael said and get around rich people Yeah. Help them in some way, build those relationships, it pays dividends, what, forever?
有个叫迪维什·马坎的厉害人物,他在旧金山经营一家名为Iconic的投资公司。他和我差不多同期进入高盛当年轻投行家,但他二月份被招进了互联网银行团队。结果他刚入职一个月,整个部门就解散了,所有人都被解雇了。
There's a there's a great guy called Divesh Makan who runs a firm, an investment firm in in San Francisco called Iconic. He was a young investment banker at Goldman around the same time when I started there as well. But he was he was hired into the Internet banking team at in February. He turned up the office, but a month later, the entire thing was gone. Everybody was fired.
而他太年轻了,资历浅到公司懒得解雇他——他们把资深银行家全裁了。他当时想:我该怎么办?我记得他连直属上司都没剩下。
And he was too young. He was kind of too junior to bother to fire. They fired all the senior bankers. And he thought, well, what do I do? I think he had no bosses left.
于是他干脆跑去硅谷,整天泡在咖啡馆里交朋友。他恰好结交的那些人包括马克·扎克伯格、里德·黑斯廷斯、里德·霍夫曼等等。后来他成为这些人在高盛的财富顾问,又把业务全转到摩根士丹利,最终创立了自己的Iconic公司。如今Iconic规模庞大,管理着这些硅谷大佬的全部财富——这一切都源于当年在无人问津时(因为互联网泡沫破灭)结识了这群创业的毛头小子,他整个人生就靠这个社交网络崛起的。
So he just basically went to Silicon Valley and hung out in coffee shops and made friends. The people he happened to make friends with were Mark Zuckerberg, Reed Hastings, Reed Hoffman, all these people. But he then became their wealth adviser at Goldman, moved it all to Morgan Stanley, then built his own firm Iconic. And Iconic is massive. It runs all the wealth for these Silicon Valley people from this network of meeting these random dudes building businesses when nobody else wanted to speak to them because, you know, they'd gone through the big bust, and he made his entire life on that network.
天才啊。很可能就是在那家咖啡馆——
Genius. Probably at that cafe where
我把比特币全赔光了。
I spent all my Bitcoin.
这个 这个
The the
那扇金色门的。
one with the gold door.
你当时也在场。你在比特币上栽了跟头。有趣的是,当我们谈论金钱系统和所有这些时,却没人提及管理人际关系的系统。大多数人维系关系的方式就是留个电话号码,嗯哼,然后期待再次相遇。
You were there at the same time. Sending was your bum on Bitcoin. It's interesting because when we talk about systems and all these things for money, nobody ever talks about a system for managing your relationships. And the way that most of us manage our relationships is we get someone's number Mhmm. And we hope that will cross paths again.
但我在思考这个问题——显然你做这档播客让我结识了很多优秀的人。我本该有套更完善的体系来梳理这些关系:如何为这些人提供帮助,记住他们的生日等细节。这不仅有益于我的心理健康(更多朋友意味着更低概率的孤独等问题),从商业角度看,未来六年里当我需要你的建议时,这些关系就会成为机会。
But I think I even think I'm thinking about it. You obviously do this podcast where I meet so many great people. I should have a much better system for understanding those relationships, how I can be of service to those people, understanding their birthdays, and all these other kinds of things. And not only would that be good for my mental health and more friends, less likely, all these kinds of sort of social psychological things, but in business terms, there's gonna be opportunities whether it's six years from now where I need your advice.
太棒了。
That's great.
人际网络的关键在于你投入什么,而非索取什么。
The the key to networks is it's what you put into the network, not what you take out.
没错。所以那些拥有
Yeah. So the people who have the
我见过最优质人脉的人,总会主动问'我能帮你什么?',比如'嘿,我有东西给你'或'你该认识某某'。
best networks I've ever seen are always the people who say, how can I help you? Yeah. Hey. I've got something for you. You should meet so and so.
哦,对。对。连接器。
Oh, yeah. Yeah. Connectors.
从来不会是,嘿,听着。你能为我做什么?是的。这总会回报的。
It's never, hey. Listen. What can you do for me? Yeah. That comes back.
因果总是循环的。尽可能多地为网络付出,网络也会回馈给你。
Karma flows back always. Give as much into the network as possible, and the network gives back.
我想这就是哈里所做的。有趣的是,大约一个月前,我说,哦,我有这个想法要做这件事。然后哈里在WhatsApp上三十秒内回复我说,哦,我知道,插入这位欧洲投资界顶尖人士的名字。我会把你和他拉进一个WhatsApp群组。把我拉进和这家伙的群组,发了个语音说史蒂夫是最棒的。
I think that's what, in the case of Harry, he's also done. Because funnily enough, about a month ago, I said, oh, I've got this idea to do this thing. And Harry turned around to me thirty seconds within WhatsApp and said, oh, I know, insert name of this person who's the very top in investing in Europe. I'll put you in a WhatsApp group with him. Put me in a WhatsApp group with this guy, set a voice note, said Steve's the best ever.
然后他说,史蒂夫比我强多了,各方面都是。这真的是他的原话。然后他提到他把我拉进群的那个人,他说,这家伙也是他领域里最顶尖的。把你们俩凑一块儿,祝好运。我立刻想,天啊,哈里。
Then he said he said, Steve's way better than I am, everything. This is literally what he said. Then And he said about the guy he put me in WhatsApp group, he goes, and this guy's also the best at what he does ever. Putting you two together, good luck. And immediately, thought, fucking hell, Harry.
多棒的人啊。然后他介绍给我的那个人也说,哈里是不是很棒?所以我给哈里发消息说,听着,如果有任何事
What a great guy. And then the guy he'd introduced me to goes, isn't Harry such a great guy? And so I messaged Harry. I'm like, listen. If there's anything
我能为你效劳
I can do for you
但那只是表面的平静。
but that's the calm mouth.
但说实话,我真的相信人脉网络的力量。我认为这是最重要的。你的社区、你的人脉就是一切。绝对的答案是,你必须不断向这个网络投入。因为如果你试图从中索取,它就会崩溃。
But that that honestly, I you know, I really believe in networks. I think it's the most important thing. Your community, your network is everything. And the absolute answer is you have to keep putting into the network. Because if you try and extract from the network, it collapses.
是的。因为那样你就会变成那个十年后才打电话的人,说,嘿,史蒂文。能借我点钱吗?因为我现金用完了。
Yeah. Because then you're just that guy who's making the phone call after ten years saying, hey, Steven. Can I get some money from you because I've run out of cash? The
最后我想谈的是英国和美国,以及地理位置在其中的作用。因为现在有很多关于英国的政治和社会讨论。人们对英国有些悲观。有些人对美国持乐观态度,有些人则不然。你在考虑财富创造和财务策略时,会如何考虑地理位置的因素?
last thing I wanted to talk about is The UK and The US and geographies generally and how much that plays a role. Because right now, there's lots of political, social conversations about The UK. People are a little bit doomer about The UK. Some people are optimistic about The US, some aren't. How much do you think about geographies when you're thinking about your wealth creation, your finance strategy?
这有影响吗?
Does it play a role?
我很幸运在伦敦住了一个多月。我在那里做了几期播客。我想我可以直接问你。这些播客有趣的是,当我与他们交谈时,他们告诉我,他们的大部分听众来自美国。他们的大部分收入也来自美国。
So I was fortunate enough to live in London for a little bit over a month or so. And I did a number of podcasts out there. And I guess I could just ask you. The interesting thing about these podcasts is when I was talking to them, what they told me is that the majority of their listener base is in The United States. The majority of their money comes from The United States.
他们的大部分赞助也来自美国,而不是英国。我觉得这非常有趣,因为这是一个巨大的市场。但他们说的是,许多真正想在英国发展的人,至少根据我所听到的,更愿意从美国赚钱,因为美元的金额要高得多。虽然我在那之外的全球经验不多,但我确实认为美国对那些对财富增长和积累感兴趣的人更友好。
The majority of their sponsors come from The United States. It's not from The UK. And I thought that was very interesting because it's a it's a huge market. But what they were saying is people who are really looking to grow in The United Kingdom, a lot of them at least, just from what I heard, would prefer to earn from The United States because the dollar figures are much higher. Now, don't have a lot of global experience outside of that, but I do think that The United States is more friendly for people that are interested in wealth growth, wealth accumulation.
也许不是最好的,毕竟世界上还有免税国家,但对于更具创业精神的人来说,这里有很多其他地方没有的机会。
Maybe not the best there's tax free countries out there, but in terms of for somebody who is more entrepreneurial in that sense, think you have a lot of opportunities here that you don't have other places.
拉姆,你怎么看?
What do think, Ram?
我坚信地理位置的重要性,原因有很多。我曾在英国、印度、西班牙和开曼群岛生活过,职业生涯大部分时间是在美国这边度过的。西班牙是生活方式的套利——生活成本可能只有英国的一半,美国的1/3。
I'm a huge believer in geographic location for a number of different reasons. So I've lived in The UK, India, Spain, The Cayman Islands. I spent most of my working career on this side of the pond in The US. Spain is lifestyle arbitrage. The cost of living is even probably half out of The UK and a third of that what it is in The US for the Cayman Islands.
一年300天阳光普照,人文、文化、气候都极佳,物价低廉,租房买房都便宜,堪称完美的生活套利。问题是人脉网络——你周围缺乏志同道合的进取者。但在如今这个可以线上办公的全球化时代,这完全可行。
Three hundred days of sunshine, incredible people, culture, climate, cost is very cheap, rent is cheap, to buy is cheap, everything. Perfect lifestyle arbitrage. Problem is network. You're not surrounded by people who are ambitious doing different stuff. In a globalized world now where we can work online, it's actually doable.
所以我们看到很多美国人迁往拉丁美洲,这就是套利机会,哥伦比亚也是。南美和拉美生活成本低,生活质量高,相对安全。如果你从事线上工作,就能快速实现财务自由目标。若说到智力资本,美国仍是全球浓度最高的地方,既有资金又有智力资本。
So we're seeing a lot of Americans moving down to Latin America. That's the arbitrage here, or Colombia as well. So into South America, Latin America, it's cheap, high quality of life, relatively safe. And if you're in a business where you can work online, okay, you you can get to your end goal, your coast fire thing super fast by doing that. If you want to your point, if you want intellectual capital, there is only one place in the world that has it in such high densities as The US, capital and intellectual capital.
亚洲有,印度也有,但各地都欠缺某些形式。关键是根据终极目标善用这些资源。
Asia has it. India has it. You know, it's all around, but they're all missing different forms of it. So it's using that for your end goals.
那英国呢?
What about The UK?
做不到是因为英国现在的态度已经变成我们就是不能拥有美好的事物。他们不愿意。如果我与朋友们交谈,他们不想投资。他们只想要更大的房子和下一辆租赁的汽车。目前英国人在制度上感到不快乐,这种情况已经持续一段时间了。
Can't do it because The UK's attitude now has become we just can't have nice things. They don't want to. If I speak to my friends, they don't want to invest. They just want to have the bigger house and the next car on lease. People are institutionally unhappy in The UK right now, and that has been for a while.
因此我们不再有创业文化。它已被扼杀。欧洲也是如此。所以不只是英国。整个欧洲都发生了同样的事情。
And so we don't have a culture of entrepreneurialism left. It's been stamped out. Europe too. So it's not just The UK. Everywhere in Europe, the same thing has happened.
人们不再相信自己还能拥有美好的事物了。
People just don't believe they can have nice things anymore.
当你思考你所理解的英国叙事时,比如,核心信息是什么?如果把它当作一个营销口号,英国,你是一名投资者,一名企业家,当你想到英国时,脑海中浮现的是什么?会有什么想法?
When you think about the narrative that you understand of The UK, like, what is the the message? So if it was like a marketing slogan, The UK, you're an investor, you're an entrepreneur, what what's in your head when you think of The UK? What comes out?
现实中的英国是什么样子,或者你会如何向他人推销英国?
What is it in reality, or what would be how would you sell The UK to others?
不。我是说,作为一名投资者和企业家,你认为当前英国的叙事是什么?
No. I'm saying, like, what do you think what do you think the narrative of The UK is right now as an investor and entrepreneur?
我觉得它就像一个死水。死水?
I think it just feels like a backwater. Backwater?
是啊。什么是
Yeah. What's an
经济死水?别忘了,在90年代末和2000年代,这里曾是全球金融业的中心。它是世界广告业的中心,也是所有创意产业的聚集地。这一切都基于伦敦。
economic backwater? So don't forget, in the late '90s and 2000s, it was this entire center of the world's financial industry. It was the center of the world's advertising industry. It was some of the all the creative industries. It was all based in London.
我们失去了所有这一切。为什么?因为监管。
We lost all of it. Why? Regulation.
所以你认为政府失策了?
So you think it's the government's government have misstepped?
没错。政府失策了,而美国夺回了银行体系,因为英美欧对资本要求的处理方式不同。他们成功让华尔街回归华尔街。一切都转移了。我当时在高盛工作。
Yeah. The government misstepped, and The US took the banking system back because how they treated capital requirements in The UK and Europe was different than The US. They And managed to get Wall Street back to Wall Street. It all moved. I was working for Goldman Sachs.
伦敦曾是他们的最大办事处。摩根大通、摩根士丹利等所有公司都是如此。而我们却亲手终结了这一切。如今历史正在重演,我们看到新兴产业正在崛起。
London was their biggest office. Same for JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, everybody. And we just stopped it. And now we're seeing it again. We've got newer industries rising.
我们有人工智能、加密货币。AI起源于剑桥,我想大部分技术来自谷歌DeepMind和剑桥大学。而我们却错失了良机。
We've got AI, crypto. AI came out of Cambridge. I think it was the Google Deep Mind. I think it was Cambridge University for most of that stuff. And we dropped the ball.
我们在金融行业失手了。我们在人工智能领域也失手了。牛津、剑桥、帝国理工等顶尖学府培养出大量人才,我们却未能善用。他们都去了美国。我们曾拥有加密货币行业,也曾参与其中。
We dropped the ball in the finance industry. We dropped the ball in AI. We get this massive talent density coming out of Oxford and Cambridge, Imperial College, all these others, we don't use it. They all move to The US. We had the crypto industry of which we were part of that.
这个机遇我们也错过了。我们在所有事情上都彻底失策。欧洲正通过表态'我们不想这么做',主动关闭每扇机会之门。别忘了,如今大多数欧洲国家已是老龄化社会,他们宁愿维持现状拒绝任何变革。
We dropped that ball too. We dropped the whole ball on everything. And Europe is actively shutting the door on every opportunity by saying, we don't want to do this. Don't forget, they're a nation of old people now, most of Europe. So they'd rather just not have any change.
但若回归GDP增长的经济公式,人口增长才是关键驱动力。长期来看需要人口增长,但必须以正确方式实现。他们归咎于此,实则整个经济机器停摆是因为生育率暴跌——人口结构问题是一切困境的根源。无人养育子女,经济增长自然停滞。
But if we go back to that economic formula for GDP growth, population growth is the key driver. You need a growing population over time, but it just needs to be done in the right way. So they're blaming that, but the whole economic machine is because nobody's had kids. That's the prob the demographic problem is the structure of everything. And the problem is nobody's had kids, so you don't have economic growth.
于是试图引入外来劳动力刺激增长,却又遭排斥驱逐。与此同时经济放缓,人们趋于保守,不再愿意承担风险。
So then you try and bring in new workers to create growth. You don't want that, so they get thrown out. Meanwhile, the economy slows down. People get pulled back. They don't want to take risk anymore.
整个体系现在不得不耗费国民医疗服务来赡养老年人。没有足够新生代支撑这套系统,政府债台高筑,债券收益率飙升,所有人都困惑不已:到底发生了什么?
The whole system is now having to pay for the National Health Service to pay for these old people. There's not enough kids to support all of that. The government's getting more in debt. Bond yields are going up. Everyone's like, what's going on?
这一切从始至终都是人口结构变化的必然结果。
It's all been a function of demographics from day one.
总结陈词时间,汉弗莱。最终立场是什么?人们最该关注什么?你会如何收尾?有没有什么我该问却没问的问题?
Closing arguments, Humphrey. Closing position. What's the most important thing people should be thinking about? How would you round off? Is there anything that I didn't ask you that I should have asked you?
是的。我认为我的个人理财哲学很简单,就是收入减去支出。所以要深入了解这两项,掌握如何提升它们,然后真正留意你的钱花在了哪里。
Yeah. I think that my my personal philosophy is just that personal finances comes down to your income minus your expenses. So know those two intimately. Know how to drive both of those two. And then just really watch what you spend your money on.
对吧?比如,美国平均每月的汽车贷款是745美元。如果可能,尽量避免这类支出。保持理性。一切关键在于持续性和合理性,我相信这些微小决策会累积成更光明的未来。
Right? Like, the car the average car payment in America is $7.45 a month. Stay away from that if you can. Try be reasonable. Everything is about being consistent and reasonable, and I think those small decisions compound to a much brighter future.
对我来说,首先是自我教育。我们讨论过你的财务状况吗?你的银行账户状况如何?你的目标是什么?所以要先充实自己。
Well, for me, first thing is educate yourself. You don't know we talked about what do your finances look like? What's your bank account look like? What are you trying to achieve? So you educate yourself.
学习投资知识。投资高于一切。投资比储蓄更重要,这是实现目标的唯一途径。否则,你的财富会缩水。然后就是付诸行动。
Learn about investing. Invest above all things. Investing above saving is the only way you're going to get there. Because if not, your money goes down. And then just do it.
进行交易。做投资。失败。学习。然后一遍又一遍地重复这个过程。
Make a trade. Make an investment. Fail. Learn. Do it again and do it again.
持续学习,不断充实自己。同时建立优质人脉网络。无论是在推特还是其他社交媒体,找到能向你传授经验的人群,融入这个网络。这样你就能进步,不可能失败。
And keep learning, educating. And then surround yourself by a good network. Just be whether it's even on Twitter, on social media, find a network of people that you can learn from, add to the network. And those things, you'll you'll get ahead. You can't fail.
只要充实自我,立即行动,持续学习实践,并构建强大的人脉网络。
If you educate yourself, just get started, and then learn, keep doing it then, and just grow a great network.
那买比特币呢?显然。你持有什么币种?
And buy Bitcoin? Obviously. What what what coins do you own
在加密货币领域?好吧,这个话题现在要变得更有争议性了。实际上我只持有一个比特币,纯粹是为了留作纪念。
in crypto? So I so this is gonna get more contentious now. So I actually don't I own just one Bitcoin for posterity's sake.
哦,靠。好吧。那我得把这期节目删掉了。我的
Oh, fuck. Okay. So I own I'll delete the episode then. My
我主要持有SUI,就是那个从Facebook分拆出来的SUI加密网络。不过我也是基金会成员。实际上我把大部分流动资产都投进去了。此外我在以太坊上持有大量数字艺术品,因为对我来说这是长期保值手段。
I am own mainly SUI, which is the which is the SUI. The crypto network that came out of Facebook. But I'm also on the foundation as well. But I actually put most of my liquid net worth into that. And then I own a lot of digital art on Ethereum because that's a long term store of value for me.
NFT?对,就是NFT。我在比特币、以太坊、Solana和SUI之间进行过多次调仓。但我不做短线交易,这些都是长期持有。
NFTs? Yeah, NFTs. And so I've moved around a lot between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and SUI. I don't trade. So these are long term holds.
我可能每两年调整一次资产配置。不过基本上都是主流大币种。
I might change once every two years, change my allocation. So but it's all generally all the big big tokens.
贾斯普里特,请做总结陈词。
And Jaspreet, closing statements.
首先,感谢Raul Humphrey和Steve组织这次活动。我想补充的是,网络上充斥着大量——恕我直言——美化被动收入或巨额财富如何轻易获取的垃圾信息,这常让人看不清实际可行的路径。我想说的是,没有什么是容易的,但无论你身处何地、背景如何,改变总是可能的,只是需要付出努力。我认为,帮助实现目标的最佳途径就是勤奋工作、做出牺牲,投入我所谓的‘十年牺牲期’。这样你才能拥有大多数人梦寐以求的生活。
Well, first off, thank you, Raul Humphrey, and Steve for putting this together. This is a and to add on to everything that you guys said, for me, I think there's a lot of, for lack of a better word, crap on the Internet of people romanticizing and fantasizing how easy it is for passive income or for insane levels of wealth, where it becomes sometimes hard to see how you could actually do that. And what I'd like to say is, look, nothing comes easy, but change can always be made regardless of where you are, what your background is, where you come from, but it's going to take work. And I think the best thing to help your outcome to get to where you want to go is hard work, sacrifice, put in what I call a decade of sacrifice. That way you can have what most people dream of.
而你能达成目标的唯一原因,就是你愿意做大多数人不愿意做的事。
And the only reason why you're able to get there is because you're willing to do what the majority of people are not willing to do.
用一句话概括,你对AI持乐观还是悲观态度?
And in a word, AI positive about it or pessimistic?
乐观。
Positive.
这是我们被赐予的最佳工具。
Best tool we've ever been given.
乐观的。没错。
Optimistic. Yeah.
好的。真令人振奋。非常感谢各位今天抽出时间。
Okay. Good. Refreshing. Very refreshing to you. Thank you all so much for giving me your time today.
我会在下方链接你告诉我的三个观众应该关注的重点内容。所以等这次对话结束后,我会请你提供三个可以找到你的渠道。首先是你们的频道,也就是YouTube上的频道。你们都是非常知名的大YouTuber,拥有令人惊叹的频道,这些频道我关注了很多很多年。你们还有什么其他觉得对观众相关的内容需要我链接的吗?
I'm I'm gonna link the top three things that you tell me we should direct the audience to below. So I'll ask you after this conversation to give me three things where people can find you. The first is gonna be your channels, so your channels on YouTube. You're all very large YouTubers and have incredible channels, channels that I followed for many, many years. Is there anything else that you guys would like me to link that you think is gonna be pertinent to the audience?
嗯,我们有一个为投资者提供的免费每日通讯,叫《市场简报》。我觉得这个会很不错。
Well, we have a free newsletter for investors that we publish every single day Yeah. Called Market Briefs. I think that would be a great one.
我也会链接这个。还有其他吗?
I'll link that one as well. Anything else?
Real Vision是个简单的地方。它是每个人都能找到所需内容的简易家园。
Real Vision is a simple place. It's a simple home for everybody to find what they need.
那么是网站吗?Realvision.com?Realvision.com。好的。那么,汉弗莱?
So The website? Realvision.com? Realvision.com. Okay. And, Humphrey?
我正在建一个网站,基本上是我的指南,但它是关于
And I'm building a website right now that's basically my my guide, but it's my guide on
不同的
different
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