Ray Dalio: I Predicted 2008, I Know What Comes Next

好，这些就是你们的选择。

Okay, so these are the choices.

它们各自会因为某些原因发生变化。

They each change for certain reasons.

我待会儿再详细展开讲讲。

I'll digress into that in a minute.

实际情况是这样的：当黄金上涨时，债券或者房产的价值往往会下跌，它们之间会呈现出某种特定的联动关系。

But what happens is they go like this When gold goes up, tends to be that the bonds will go down, in value or your house, and these change in a certain way.

所以最好的办法就是做一个多元化的投资组合。

And so the best thing to do is to have a diversified portfolio of that.

当你持有多种资产而不是单一资产时，虽然不会提高收益，但能降低风险。

When you have that rather than any one, you, won't reduce your return, but you will reduce your risk.

多元化意味着要适当配置一些黄金。

And diversified means having a little bit of Right.

配置一定比例。

A certain amount.

而且你得学会平衡它们，因为这些资产波动性很大。

And you have to know how to balance them because of their volatility.

股票这一类，波动性比那一类要大。

This one, stocks, is more, volatile than this one.

我自己的建议是，首先从你的实际需求出发。

And my own recommendations are you start first of all with what you need.

我是该买房呢，还是把钱拿来多去旅行之类的？

Should I buy a place or should I use that money and I could travel more and so on?

房子、公寓这些资产的一个优势在于，它们构成了你的生活环境。

One of the advantages of the house, the apartment, and whatever is it's your environment.

生活环境很重要。

Your environment is important.

它能促使你强制储蓄。

It produces forced savings.

有时候这种强制储蓄是好事。

Sometimes that forced savings is good.

它的税务待遇通常更好。

It typically is taxed better.

从长期来看，它是更优的税务工具。

It's a it's a better vehicle for tax over a period of time.

但我不是只推荐这一种，我是说，当我看这些选项时，我觉得黄金特别有意思，因为其他资产都不好的时候，它往往表现不错。

But I'm not arguing for this alone, but I'm saying when I'm looking at this, then I think this one, gold, is, very interesting because when all of these tend to do badly, this tends to do well.

没错，它是一种非常有效的分散投资工具，毕竟黄金作为货币的历史远早于1971年，至今仍是全球第二大储备货币。

Okay, so it's a very effective diversifying because this was money, not until 1971, and it's still the second largest reserve currency.

各国央行都持有储备货币。

Central banks hold reserve currencies.

所以它具备和这些资产不同的特性，而像这种资产，当货币因通胀而贬值时，它的价值反而会上升。

So it has qualities that are different from this, and this has qualities like when the value of money goes down because of inflation, this

债券。

Bonds.

债券本质上就是把钱借给政府。

And bonds are basically lending the government money.

没错。

That's right.

如果你以某个利率借出钱，但后来通胀和利率都上涨了，你就被锁定在那个利率上了。

If you lend the money at a certain interest rate and then inflation and interest rates rise, you're kind of locked into that interest rate.

所以它本身也存在问题。

And so it has its own problems.

我觉得更重要的是，你得攒钱，然后想清楚：如果收入断了，我的钱能撑几年？

The more important thing I would say is you save up and you say, how many years can I live if money doesn't come in?

明白吗？

Okay?

然后你再想想：怎样才能让自己安心？

And then you take that and you say, how could I be secure?

所以我不会把所有钱都押在一种可能暴跌70%的资产上。

So I don't wanna put it into one thing that can go down 70%.

那我该怎么分散风险呢？

So how do I diversify that?

这正是我最想强调的。

That's my main headline.

在上一期节目的评论里，很多人问，对于那些没什么钱、甚至没有任何资产的人来说，这些建议该怎么用呢？

A lot of people the comments of our last episode, they were asking this, like, how does this apply for someone who doesn't have much money, maybe doesn't have any assets?

比如说，他们才三十岁。

Say they're 30 years old.

每个月只有一百美元的可支配收入，正在思考怎么为未来做打算。

They have, I don't know, a $100 disposable income, and they're thinking about how to sort of secure their future.

对这样的人，你有什么建议？

What is the advice for someone in that situation?

你唯一拥有的资产，就是你自己。

Your only asset is yourself.

还有，你将来可能从政府那里拿到的那点保障。

And and I guess what you're gonna get from the government.

你该怎么提升自己，赚更多的钱？

How do you sell yourself at at getting a better income?

或者你从政府那里怎么拿到钱呢？

Or how much how are you getting money from the government?

对。

Mhmm.

最重要的还是你得推销自己。

You selling yourself is the main thing.

现在人工智能和其他机器取代各种工作岗位，这成了一个大问题，情况变得更难了。

This is one of the big problems now with artificial intelligence and other machines replacing people different types of jobs, it becomes more difficult.

生产效率提高了，但贫富差距却越来越大。

It produces that big wealth gap while you're having more productivity.

大家都想要更高的生产效率，因为这意味着能更高效地生产东西。

Everybody wants more productivity because it means how do you produce things more efficiently?

但这也拉大了收入差距，因为你的收入在很大程度上取决于你的生产力，再加上政治因素的影响。

But that contributes to the income gap because your productivity equals your income for a large extent, and then you have the political dynamic.

要摆脱你提到的这种处境，确实很难。

It's tough to get yourself out of this position that you mentioned.

我在想象那个人。

I'm imagining that person.

这不容易。

It's not easy.

存在着巨大的两极分化。

There is this giant polarity.

如果你是顶尖10%的人才，世界就是你的舞台。

If you're in the top 10% of talent, let's say, the world's your oyster.

但如今要想达到那个位置，其实很难。

But nowadays in order to be there, okay, that's difficult.

找一份能让你用时间换来好收入的工作。

Find something that, gives you the ability to sell your time for good money.

是开优步吗？

Is that gonna be that you're driving an Uber?

还是你有天赋，能理解人工智能，并把这种理解贡献给重视它的公司？

Is that gonna be that you have the talent and you're being gonna be able to understand AI and contribute that understanding to a company that values that?

或者你的技能是什么？

Or what is your skill?

你找到了这个，对吧？

You found this, okay?

你找到了方法，对吧？

And you found the way, okay?

但你需要钱，对吧？

But you need money, okay?

而且

And

关键

the

就是做你想做的事，做你现在在做的事，我很幸运能把自己的工作和热爱合二为一，但别忘了钱也很重要。

thing that you wanna do, what you're doing, and I'm lucky enough to do, is to make your work and your passion the same thing, and don't forget about the money part.

对

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

我后来才意识到，职业生涯早期没明白的一点是，不管你有什么技能，在不同环境或行业里价值都不一样。

I am I one of the things that I I think I didn't realize earlier in my career is that whatever skills you have will be valued differently in different contexts or industries, should I say.

比如说，我在这里的技能——我不是在自夸，但就拿我在这里的技能来说吧。

So for example, say that my skill here and I'm not trying to flatter myself, but say my skill here

是有效果的。

is It's working.

跟人聊天。

Having conversations.

对吧？

Right?

就当这是我的技能吧。

Let's say that's what it is.

是的。

Yeah.

我能去很多地方聊天，而这些地方对聊天能力的估值，每小时能差出天壤之别。

There's lots of places I could have conversations, and those places would value my ability to have conversations wildly differently per hour.

对吧？

Right?

我经常这么想，朋友跟我聊起他们的技能时，我就会说：咱们不妨看看，不同行业对你的现有技能会有多大的价值差异。

So I often think this and speak to my friends about this when they they tell me their skills, I say, let's look at the different industries and how they would value the skills you currently have differently.

举个好例子，你可以开网约车，也可以给雷·达里奥当专职司机。

A good example again, you know, you could be an Uber driver or you could chauffeur Ray Dalio.

我猜这两份工作收入差距肯定巨大，但本质上都是开车这项技能。

Now I imagine those two things pay wildly differently, but the same skill of driving a car, broadly speaking.

我完全同意。

I agree with all that.

所以我觉得，一种方式是，你可以换个思路，别光等着找老板要加薪。

And so I think that's one way to just you know, the other way is you go ask your current boss for a promotion.

但话说回来，老板评估你的时候，终究是拿你跟团队其他人、行业行情这些因素一起比的。

But, again, they're gonna value you in the context of their other employees, the market in that industry, etcetera.

所以你可能只能拿到10%的涨幅，但不一定会有那种质的飞跃。

So if you might get 10%, but you're not gonna see a step change necessarily.

所以我总是跟 people 这么说。

So that's something that I always say to people.

确实是这样。

Absolutely right.

还有另一个定律，我觉得这几乎适用于所有事情。只要你买东西，不管是什么，比如一幅画、一件家具、一件衣服，或者是某人的时间，顶端的选项价格往往都是平均水平的很多倍。

And another law of something, and I think it's almost a law of everything, it's a law if you buy almost anything, is those at the top, whatever the thing you're buying, if you're buying a painting, a piece of furniture, piece of clothing, person's time or whatever, command premiums that are many multiples of the average.

这就像如果你能多投入10%的时间、精力和技能去提升，你就能获得双倍的回报，大概就是这个意思，对吧？

It's almost like if you could invest 10% more of your time, your effort, your skill to go up, okay, you will get twice as much for 10% better, something like that, okay?

所以这是人生和职场中的一部分公式。

So that's part of the formula of life and a formula of employment.

所以我觉得，如果你能把刚才提到的和我现在说的结合起来考虑，就能帮你更好地定位自己，知道该怎么做。

And so I think if you keep what you brought up and what I'm bringing up in mind, that helps you position yourself and know what to do.

明白。

Mhmm.

下面应该有个按钮。

There should be a button just down below here.

如果显示已订阅，说明你已经订阅了。

And if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed.

如果显示订阅者，那就说明你还没订阅。

If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet.

如果你还没订阅，能不能麻烦你点一下那个按钮？

And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that button?

这对节目帮助很大，远超你的想象。

It helps the show more than you know.

根据算法显示，你是我们的观众，但还没点那个按钮。

And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

我们刚才其实没提到这一点。

We didn't mention this thing here actually.

所以我可能得聊聊这个了，因为现在很多人都在讨论比特币。

So I probably should talk about it because people are talking about it a lot right now, which is Bitcoin.

或者说是比特币。

Or Bitcoin.

你对比特币怎么看？

What's your perspective on Bitcoin?

我知道目前比特币市场不太景气。

I know the market in Bitcoin is down at the moment.

我的投资组合里有大约1%是比特币，因为货币有很多种。

I have about 1% of my portfolio in Bitcoin because there's different kinds of money.

有一种是印不出来的东西，那就是其中一种。

And the money that you can't print, that's one kind.

而比特币，是另一种印不出来的货币。

This is the other kind of money that you can't print.

黄金。

Gold.

对。

Yeah.

技术上是破解不了的。

You cannot crack it with technology.

你可以把它握在手里。

You can hold it.

它是真正属于你的。

You own it.

有句话这么说，它是唯一不依赖他人负债的金融资产。

There's a saying that it's the only financial asset that is not somebody else's liability.

你得有人愿意拿东西来换它。

Somebody has to give you something for it.

它具备这个特点。

It has that.

所以在我想要确保手头有硬通货的考量里，对大多数人来说，这部分资产占投资组合的5%到15%比较合适，我倾向于选择这个。

So in my category of wanting, let's say, make sure that I have some hard money, which for most people should be between 515% of their portfolio, I prefer that.

我指的是这里的金条，

I'm pointing to, the gold bars here,

而不是比特币。

rather than, the Bitcoin.

在你看来，它还算是一种黄金类资产吗？

Is it still, in your view, a gold light asset?

是的。

Yes.

它是一种无法被印出来的货币形式。

It's a type of money that can't be printed.

但确实有些技术可能对它构成威胁。

But there are technologies that can hurt it.

换句话说，如果量子计算发展起来，政府能监控它，就可能征税。

In other words, if there's quantum computing and it can be monitored by, governments and so on, it could be taxed.

而数字货币在某种程度上也类似。

And digital currencies are somewhat similar.

不过，出于隐私方面的考虑，你并不像喜欢黄金那样喜欢比特币。

But you don't like Bitcoin as much as gold because of privacy reasons as well.

当政府表示不想要它时，他们拥有权力，因此可以对它做任何他们想做的事。

And when the governments say I don't want it, they have the power, therefore, to do whatever they want with it.

中央银行不会持有大量比特币，原因就是我刚才说的那些。

And central banks will not own any significant amount of that because of the reason I said.

他们希望自己的交易保持私密，并且由自己掌控。

They they want their transactions to be private and in their control.

你想想看，对俄罗斯来说情况会有多大不同。

Think about how different it would be for Russia.

他们没收了其他这类资产。

They confiscated these kind of other assets.

但他们没动这些。

They didn't get these.

黄金。

Gold.

好的，黄金。

Okay, gold.

所以在当前这种冲突时期，你看到的情况是，只要我持有它，别人就拿不走。

And so what you're seeing even particularly in this time of conflict is that there's a sense that if I'm holding this, others won't get it.

你刚才提到人工智能对经济整体以及普通人生活的潜在影响。

You mentioned a second ago the impact you think AI is gonna have on the economy broadly, but also again to real people's lives.

这方面的争论很多。

There's lots of debate.

过去十年左右，人工智能领域一直存在这样的讨论。

I mean, there's been a debate over the last ten ten ten years or so within the world of AI.

最初，那些大型AI公司的首席执行官们说，人工智能会导致失业，最近甚至有些CEO表示，在超级智能时代，工作可能会变得可有可无。

You had the big AI CEOs originally saying that AI would cause job disruption and that, you know, you've even had some of the CEOs more recently saying, work will become optional in a world of superintelligence.

与此同时，机器人技术也在迅速发展。

At the same time, we have robotics coming over the horizon.

所以，智能和机器人这两股力量正在交汇，至于会怎样，我也说不准。

So you've got this sort of convergence of intelligence and then I don't know.

你可以把它想象成肌肉，就像身体的力量一样，没错。

You could think of it like muscles, like physical Yep.

肌肉或者能力。

Muscles or ability.

与此同时，我们看到人工智能的能力正在快速提升。

At the same time, we're seeing AI accelerate in its capabilities.

这对普通人及其工作意味着什么？在你看来，谁会从这场人工智能革命中受益？

What does this mean for the average person and their job, and who's gonna benefit from this AI revolution in your point of view?

这意味着，你要么站在前沿，具备能力，成为那最顶尖的百分之一甚至百分之十，能够运用并推动技术发展；要么，如果你从事的是脑力工作，就面临被取代的风险。

It means that you will either be cutting edge and capable and among that top fraction of a percent down to 10% of the population who is cutting edge and using it and accelerating, or you will, if you're in a thinking job, be at risk of being replaced.

我们正进入一个可以自动化一切的时代。

We're coming into a world where we can automate everything.

人类的进化经历了农业时代，那时几乎没有创新。

The evolution of man was we had the agricultural era and there was no real inventiveness.

后来，人类发明了机器。

And then man invented the machine.

机器的作用是取代了人类在体力上的需求。

And what the machine did is it replaced man's physical necessity.

过去人们在农田里像牛一样劳作，后来都被拖拉机取代了。

So men used to be like oxen in the agricultural field and so on, and they were replaced by tractors.

接着，我们进入了工业时代。

And then there was, we entered the industrial age.

先是印刷术让人们能够接受教育，随后出现了各种发明，也就是第一次工业革命。

First you had the printing press that allowed people to learn, And then you had these inventions, the industrial revolution, the first industrial revolution.

那时候，工厂里原本由人完成的体力劳动，也被机器取代了。

And what you had is the replacing the physical that that man would do in factories then and so on.

在我看来，就像人体被替代一样，整个过程就是这样推进的。

And so the way I look at it is I look at the human body, and I see, like, it's replacing the body and so on.

这种替代不断向上延伸，开始取代一些可以被计算机化的思维功能。

And it's coming up higher and higher, and then it replaces some aspects of the mind that you can computerize.

它持续升级，逐步取代越来越高级的思考与推理能力。

And it's coming up and up, and it's replacing higher and higher levels of thinking and reasoning.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这条路径正是正在发生的进化过程的一部分。

So that path is part of the evolutionary path that is happening.

于是你开始想，我还能提供什么价值？

So then you start to say, what do I have to offer?

因此，从受益者来看，真正获益的是那些拥有替代工人之理念的资本家。

And so in answer to who benefits from it, those who benefit from it are those who are the capitalists with the ideas that replace the workers.

如果你看看企业的收入，就会发现确实有收入来源。

And so if you look at, there's revenue for businesses.

你在商店买东西的时候，商家就有收入。

When you buy something in a store, there's revenue.

好的。

Okay.

而如果你看看工人所分得的份额，就会发现这个份额正在不断下降。

And if you look at the share that is going to workers, you see that share going down.

而如果你看看那些拥有企业的人分到的份额，这个比例正在上升。

And if you look at the share that's going to those who own that business, that share is going up.

你知道吗，他们是怎么把收入分配到成本里的？

That's you know, how do they share that revenue in terms of the cost?

你会发现这个比例在持续增长。

And you see that that's rising.

所以这是一个演进的过程，确实，人们会拥有更多空闲时间。

And so, this is an evolutionary process, and it's true that what happens is you get more, free time.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在社会得思考了：该怎么应对这种情况？

So now the society has to think, how do I deal with this?

比如，以前一周工作六七十个小时，现在却降到四十小时以下，空闲时间反而多了。

So for example, the work week, which used to be, you know, a sixty or seventy hour work week, goes down to less than a forty hour work week, and there's more time.

但问题来了：该怎么为这种变化设定一个底线？

But there needs to be, you know, how do you create a bottom?

所以我们现在正经历这样一个阶段：顶层的人赚取了惊人的财富，而底层的人却面临越来越多的困难。

And so we're going through this phase in which there is this upper end that is making incredible amounts of wealth as we described, and then this lower end that is, then having these challenges.

虽然经济整体还算不错，但大学毕业生找工作却越来越难了。

We've had a relatively good economy, and the, difficulty of college graduates to, get employment has increased significantly.

我跟你说，在很多公司里，雇个大学毕业生反而成了麻烦事。

And I can tell you that in in many businesses, it becomes more of a pain in the neck to have a college graduate, let's say, do it.

你还得花时间培训他们。

They have to train them.

而且很多工作现在用AI和自动化就能很快搞定，根本不需要人。

You have to and and many of those tasks, many of that thing can be done, very quickly with the AI and with computerization.

等机器人技术再发展起来，这种情况会更普遍。

And as you get into robotics, you're gonna have that happen.

对吧？

Right?

我们眼下看到的这种颠覆速度，跟历史上工业革命完全不一样——那时候造台拖拉机都得花很长时间，可现在，大量资本涌入像Anthropic、OpenAI这样的AI前沿公司，变化快得惊人。

The speed of the disruption that we're seeing because of the amount of capital that's flowing into these AI frontier models like the Anthropics and OpenAI, etcetera, etcetera, is is quite different from anything else, sort of the historical precedences we've seen through the industrial revolution where it took time to build the tractors.

速度也是一个因素。

There's an element of speed.

通常的情况是泡沫破裂。

What happens usually is the bubble bursts.

对。

Mhmm.

然后就会出现这种周期性的动态，也就是技术在不断演进的过程中，市场随之波动。

And now you have the cyclical dynamic of that while the technology, you know, evolves.

但供需失衡和我们刚才提到的债务问题就随之出现了。

But the the supply demand and the debt problem that we just talked about then come in.

所以失业通常是由金融危机引起的，就像我们之前聊到的，债务和股市下跌，人们没有抵押品，因此不再购买资产，这种连锁反应导致了失业。

And so unemployment is due to typically, some sort of a combination of a financial crisis crisis that like we talked about the debt and stocks going down and people not having collateral and then therefore not buying, assets and that dynamic.

这些因素推高了失业率。

That causes the unemployment rate, that factor.

这就是经济层面的原因。

That's the sort of economic reasons.

不过说到AI代理和机器人取代人类，我曾和Uber的达拉聊过。达拉表示，他设想未来全球900万负责配送的骑手将被自动驾驶汽车和机器人取代。

But in terms of the AI agents, robotics being able to replace you, I've sat with Dara from Uber, and Dara said that he imagines in the future, the 9,000,000 riders that they have around the world doing deliveries will be replaced by autonomous vehicles, autonomous robots.

如果我们要诚实地面对现实，这900万司机的职业生涯可能会就此终结。

Those 9,000,000 drivers careers that you have will be out of work conceivably in the you know, talking about being honest about the situation.

确实如此。

Yeah.

我认为，这同样适用于实体AI领域。

I think, again, it goes to physical AI as well.

对吧？

Right?

所以我觉得，二十年以后，你可以想象，那九百万辆可能会变成两千万辆自动驾驶汽车。

So I think twenty years from now, you can imagine that those 9,000,000 will be 20,000,000, AVs maybe.

不过从现在到那时候之间还有段时间，部分原因是我们不在虚拟世界里活动，对吧？

But we have time between now and then partially because we don't operate in the virtual world, right?

我们是在现实世界里活动。

We operate in the physical world.

得先把法规跟上。

You have to get the regulations up.

得把车造出来。

You have to build the cars.

得把传感器系统建起来。

You have to build the sensor stacks.

模型也得跟上。

The models have to get there.

现在到那时候还有时间，但你可以想象，将来我们大部分出行都会由某种机器人来完成。

So there is time between now and then, but you can imagine the majority of our trips being fulfilled by robots of some kind.

失业率会受到经济泡沫破裂和经济下滑的严重影响。

The unemployment rate gets very influenced by the bubble bursting and the economy going down.

你能看到那个明显的上升。

You see that spike.

你提到的这种结构性变化确实存在。

You certainly have the evolutionary change that you're referring to.

好的。

Okay.

所以是出现峰值。

So it's spikes.

换句话说，就像他说的，随着技术更替，拖拉机取代了劳动者或流水线工人，这是一种进化过程。

In other words, there's this evolutionary thing in which they, like he says, the tractor replaces the laborer or the assembly line worker as technology is replaced.

正如你描述的那样，这种进化过程是持续多年的。

And that is an evolutionary thing that goes continuously for, you know, many years in the way that you're describing.

既然你提到了失业率，我想特别强调一下，失业率受泡沫破裂的影响非常大。

Because you asked about the unemployment rate, I just wanted to emphasize that the unemployment rate is very heavily affected by that bubble bursting.

所以，也就是说，这时候有两股力量同时在起作用。

So, okay, you've got two forces at once then.

正如我们之前说的，泡沫破裂时，大家都需要现金，所以开始削减开支。

You've got, when the bubble bursts, everybody, as we said, needs cash, so they start cutting their costs.

因此，裁员也就从这个时候开始了。

So that's when they start laying people off.

是的。

Yeah.

他们开始环顾公司内部，心想：别谈增长了。

And they start looking around their company and go, forget growth.

我们只求活下去。

We just need to survive.

所以得把这组人、那组人、还有那组人都裁掉。

So we're gonna lay off that team and that team and that team.

然后你就看到失业率上升了。

And then you see unemployment going up.

与此同时，还有一种深层的变化在发生：员工正用AI代理或机器人取代同事。

And then you've got this sort of underlying shift happening at the same time, which is workers are replacing their team members with AI agents or robotics.

我们在工厂里就能看到。

We're in the factories.

现在工厂里都用机器人干活了，等等。

They're now using robots to do factory work, etcetera.

这就是当前缓慢推进的现状。

And that's the sort of current slow march forward.

没错。

Right.

我这儿有个图表。

So I have this chart.

明白吗？

Okay?

这条线代表的是技术的演进过程。

What this represents, this line, is the evolution of technologies.

换句话说，我们不断学到更多、做得更好，而正是这种演进，让机器在这一过程中逐步取代了人类的工作。

In other words, we have greater and greater learning and doing things better, and that's the evolution that we're talking about that also machines replace people or replace their tags over that period of time.

然后还有一个大周期，平均下来大约持续一生，也就是八十年左右。

Then you have this big cycle, which is typically lasts for about a lifetime on average, about eighty years.

上一次我们经历这种周期，是在1945年。

We went through that the last time, 1945.

当时是有秩序的。

There were orders.

指的是货币方面的秩序。

There's a monetary order.

还有国内政治层面的秩序。

There's a domestic political order.

以及地缘政治方面的秩序。

There's a geopolitical order.

明白吗？

Okay?

泡沫破裂了。

You have the bubble bursting.

对吧？

Okay?

情况就是这样。

You have this.

我们说的就是这个下滑过程。

This is what we're talking about, that dive.

等你经历这个阶段，就会看到这些体系开始瓦解。

And then when you go through that, you break down these orders.

一旦它们崩塌，债务负担也就随之消失了。

And when they break down, then, you would get rid of the debt burden.

你熟悉的货币体系也就不再存在了。

So you get rid of the monetary system as you're used to it.

你可能也会失去国内的秩序。

You, may get rid of the domestic order.

很多国家的体系，最终都会终结。

Many countries' orders, their systems end.

我的意思是，所有体系迟早都会垮，尤其在内部冲突剧烈的时候，更容易崩溃。

I mean, they all end at some point, and so they can break down quite often in a time of great internal conflict.

这个体系能撑得住吗？

Does the system last?

而这种情况就发生在那个时候。

And that happens at that time.

所以这就是那个巨大的崩溃。

And so that's that big breakdown.

不过，你刚才说的这些，我完全同意。

But still, what you're talking about is and and I and I agree with you.

这一直在不断上升。

This keeps going up.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为学习这件事，你学过的东西是不会忘的。

Because learning, you don't unlearn what you've learned.

所以随着这个不断上升，你依然会让它持续走高。

So as this goes up and and you're you you still keep this thing going up.

懂了吗？

Okay?

但你得看到那个大的周期，债务和冲突驱动的这种变动。

But you have the big cycle, the debt, the conflict type of movement.

而这些小周期，我们通常看到的，平均下来大约是八十年一个周期。

And these little cycles are the cycles that we see in this roughly on average, let's call it an eighty year period.

你会看到经济衰退，失业率上升，诸如此类的情况。

But, you see the recession and recession has higher unemployment and so on.

然后政府会放松货币政策，增加货币供应，经济随之回升，进入繁荣期，接着就形成泡沫——因为你把产能都用光了，通胀上升，于是他们又收紧政策，最终迎来下一轮衰退。

Then they stimulate monetary policy, they make money looser, then the economy goes up and you have prosperity, then you go into a bubble, okay, that and you run lower on capacity because you're using up the capacity, inflation rises, they tighten monetary policy, and then you have the the recession that follows.

所以从一次衰退到下一次衰退，我刚说的这个完整循环，平均下来大约是六年左右，上下浮动三年都有可能。

So these movements from one recession to the next recession, that cycle that I've just described, on average has lasted about six years, give or take about three.

这就是它的大致走势。

So that's the way it looks.

我再给你回放一遍。

So I'll play this back to you

让我确认一下我有没有理解对。

to make sure I understand it.

还有一种更大的宏观泡沫，持续八十多年，那就是世界秩序的更替。

There is a sort of bigger macro bubble, which is over eighty years, which is the changing of the world order.

没错。

Yep.

人这一辈子，债务会越来越深。

You get deeper and deeper and deeper in debt over a lifetime.

比如说你的借贷能力，是有个上限的。

So so let's say your debt capacity, you have a certain amount.

政府的借贷能力也是这样，借到一定程度，债务被清空后，又能重新积累，一直涨到开始吃紧为止。

So the government's debt capacity, for example, it can borrow when you wipe it out here, then you can build it up and build it up until it starts to squeeze.

债务偿付压力开始显现。

Debt service starts to squeeze out.

而这正是世界秩序更替的表现。

And that's a changing of the world order.

这只是一个因素之一。

That is one of the ingredients.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们现在债务太多了。

So, okay, we have too much debt.

同时，你积累起来的，是巨大的贫富差距——资本主义确实不错，我也支持资本主义，但现实就是如此。

At the same time, what you're building up is you're building up great wealth gaps because capitalism and I love capitalism, but it's here's the reality.

它会制造出巨大的收入和财富差异。

It creates big differences in income and wealth.

而一旦出现这种差异，人们的机遇也会随之分化，因为富人能给子女提供优质的教育，还能给他们所有优势。

And when it does that, that also creates differences in people's opportunities because the rich people can educate their children well, and they can give them all the benefits.

教育本身就是一大优势，所以才需要普及优质教育。

I mean, education is a big benefit, and that's why there should be broad based excellent education.

但这些情况都在发生，于是贫富差距就越拉越大。

But all of that happens, and so you see wealth gaps build up.

就像工业革命之后，就进入了镀金时代。

So, like, the industrial revolution leads into the gilded age.

明白吧？

Okay?

镀金时代和现在很像，人们买昂贵的东西，过得光鲜亮丽，然后就出现了强盗大亨。

The gilded age looks a lot like now, you know, people buying expensive things and looking very gilded, and then it leads to the robber barons.

这些强盗大亨就是那些被看作利用体系牟利的人，也就是亿万富翁阶层，整个循环就这样形成。

And the robber barons are people who are considered, you know, the that they're, taking advantage, the billionaire class, and it becomes that cycle.

所以这就是它的运作方式。

So that's the way

就是这样运作的。

it works.

你看到的是大约八十年一个周期，先是繁荣，然后是崩溃，最终引发冲突和世界秩序的更迭。

So you've got this eighty year sort of, you know, boom, and then there's a collapse, which sort of ends in conflict and the changing of the new world order.

而在其中，还夹杂着各种经济泡沫，起起落落，时而衰退。

And then within there, you have these little bubbles, which really economic bubbles that go up and down recession.

人们总是特别兴奋。

People get very excited.

它们会收缩。

They they they contract.

它们会高涨。

They get excited.

它们又会收缩。

They contract.

而这里这条直线代表的是技术进步，贯穿了各种理念、技术和方方面面。

And then you have the the straight line here, which is the sort of techno technological improvement across the spectrum of ideas and technologies and all these things.

它一直在持续。

It keeps going.

无论经济如何繁荣与衰退，它都会持续下去，因为正如你所说，人们永远不会忘记。

And it keeps going regardless of this boom and bust because, as you say, people never forget.

我这里有几个问题想问问。

I so a couple of questions on this then.

我都不知道该从哪个开始，不过先说说最后一点吧：有人认为，人工智能和机器人会创造新的工作，所有人都会没事。

I don't even know which one to dive into first, but let's go for I guess, just closing off on the last point that I was I was getting at is there's this narrative that there'll be new jobs created because of AI and robotics, and everyone will be fine.

这种说法很大程度上来自硅谷。

A lot of this narrative comes from Silicon Valley.

那些在开发技术的人，当然不希望被批评，因为他们

Who is producing the technology that doesn't wanna be attacked because they're

赚得盆满钵满。

Making a lot of money.

他们可能有意塑造某种形象。

They may have an act

而且他们现在处境很好。

And they're in a good place.

希望维持一种特定的视角。

Desire to have a certain perspective.

我认为硅谷里也有不少客观的人，他们都会说，这会对就业造成巨大影响。

I think objective people in Silicon Valley, and there are a number of them, would say it's going to have a big employment.

但你从财富分配上就能看出来，谁持有股票，谁没有。

But you can see it in the wealth, who owns stocks and who doesn't own stocks.

好，现在如果你持有股票，那你肯定特别高兴。

Okay, now if you own stocks, you're very happy now.

如果你没持有股票，那就享受不到持股带来的好处了。

If you don't own stocks, you're not getting that benefit of owning stocks.

所以光这一点，除了就业之外，就已经加剧了财富差距。

So that in and of itself creates a greater wealth even aside from employment.

明白了。

Okay.

所以这些因素都在不断拉大贫富差距。

So there are these forces to create the greater, wealth gaps.

对不对？

Right?

美国大约有61%的成年人以某种形式持有股票，而且绝大多数人都是通过退休账户间接持有的。

Roughly 61% of US adults own stock in some form, and most of them hold it indirectly through their retirement plan.

只有20%的美国人通过证券账户直接持有个股，而总人口里超过一半都有持股。

Only 20 of Americans directly own individual stocks or shares through a brokerage account, while over half of Americans own stocks.

股票所有权高度集中。

Ownership is heavily concentrated.

前10%的家庭持有近90%的股票。

The top 10% of households hold almost 90% of the stock.

你怎么看这种来自硅谷的说法——说未来会出现我们目前无法预测的新工作，所有人都会没事？

How do you feel about this narrative coming from predominantly Silicon Valley that there'll be new jobs created that we can't yet forecast and everyone will be fine?

他们总是拿工业革命来举例。

They point to the industrial revolution.

他们说，你看。

They say, look.

拖拉机刚出现的时候，大家都觉得完了。

When the tractors came, we thought everyone was finished.

工厂兴起的时候，也觉得完了，可后来我们还是找到了别的出路。

When factories came, we thought everyone was finished, but look, we figured some other stuff out.

因为如果你仔细想想，当你的身体越来越被大脑取代，你就能做到这一点。

Because if you look at that, this is this thing I'm saying that as your body is more and more replaced with your mind, then you can do that.

但如果连你的思维和身体都被替代了，你还能拿什么去卖呢？

But when your mind is replaced and your body is replaced, what is it that you have to sell?

一旦我们的身体和思维都被替代了，作为人类，我们还能靠什么去交换价值呢？

What is it that we have to sell as humans once our body and our minds are replaced?

人类拥有的是情感和直觉。

What man has is emotions and has intuitions.

人工智能确实有一些它不具备的特质。

There are certain things that artificial intelligence doesn't have.

所以，如果非要具体到这些方面，机器人能给出不错的按摩体验吗？

And so if you have to get down to what those things are, does the robot give a good massage?

剩下的到底是什么呢？

What is it that is left?

所以，我们会继续探讨剩下的部分究竟是什么，好吗？

And so we will wrestle with what it is that is left, okay?

不过我认为，在可预见的未来，那些能够充分发挥人类独特智慧，并与人工智能良好协作的人，将会处于这一切的前沿。

But I think that for the foreseeable future, those who can work very well where they have an exceptional human intelligence and work in partnership with the artificial intelligence, that they are going to be at the cutting edge of all of this.

我还有六十秒，给大家展示一下多亏了我们的赞助商 Wispr Flow，我能完成多少工作。

I've got sixty seconds, and I'm gonna show you how much I can get done because of our sponsor called Wispr Flow.

可能有些朋友还不知道它是什么，这是我投资的一家企业，能把你的语音在任何应用或设备上直接转成文字。

And for those of you that don't know what it is, it's a business I invested in that turns your speech into text in any app or device.

我要往我们的 Slack 频道里发条消息，奖励这周做实验最多的那位团队成员。

I'm gonna post into our Slack channel, which rewards whichever team member conducted the most experiments this week.

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

这周的实验员是……

Here is this week's experimenter of the week.

恭喜CEO日记预告片团队，成员是Ant、Liv、Dom和Cam。

Congratulations to the Diar of a CEO trailer team, which is Ant, Liv, Dom, and Cam.

你们真厉害。

You guys have one.

好的。

Okay.

现在我打开Gmail。

Now I'm gonna open Gmail.

这是我们的创始人之一发的一封邮件，我想让我团队的人都加入这个对话。

So here is one of our founders on an email chain that I wanna connect my team with.

我只要说一句，把团队的邮箱加进来，Wispr就会自动搞定。

All I have to say is add my team's emails, and Wispr will do exactly that.

接下来，给每周帮我安排日程的胡安发个简短消息。

Now a quick message to Juan, who does my schedule every single week.

嘿，胡安。

Hey, Juan.

周三下午两点能录吗？等等，还是算了。

Can I record on Wednesday at two p actually, no?

你知道吗？

Do you know what?

那我们就定在周三下午三点录吧。

Let's record at 3PM on Wednesday.

Wispr Flow 的速度是打字的四倍，而且用起来特别简单。

Wispr Flow is four times faster than typing, and it is incredibly easy to use.

如果你感兴趣，现在就去 whisprflow.ai/steven 下载试试吧。

So if you wanna give it a go, all you have to do is head to whisprflow.ai/steven to download it today.

就像乔恩·琼斯那样，认知表现上哪怕一点点提升，都能带来巨大的改变。

Just like Jon Jones, where marginal improvements in your cognitive performance can have a massive impact.

有时候我一天能录上十个小时的播客。

Sometimes I podcast for ten hours a day.

过去几周我一直在拍电视节目，每周只剩一两天空闲时间处理所有工作，脑力消耗特别大。

Over the last couple of weeks, I've been in filming for a TV show, and I have, like, one or two days off to get all of my work done, which means there's lots of cognitive load.

所以我开始用酮体补充剂，因为吃了之后我表达更流畅、思维更清晰，工作效率也更高。

And so I turned to ketones because I find myself more articulate, able to think more clearly, able to work out better when I'm fueled by ketones.

我成为这家公司的联合创始人，也是它现在成为本播客赞助商的原因，是因为我记得有个叫克里斯蒂娜的团队成员。

And so the reason I became a co owner of this company and the reason why they now are a sponsor of this podcast is because I remember one of my team members called Christiana.

她试了一次之后，直接跑到我桌前说：这是她用过最棒的产品。

She tried it once and came up to my desk, and she goes, this is the best product ever made.

我觉得部分原因是因为她和我一样，甚至像约翰·琼斯那样，非常看重这些认知方面的益处，我想我的大多数听众应该也是这么想的。

And I think in part that's because she really cares about those cognitive benefits as I do, as John Jones does, and as I think most of my listeners probably will.

所以如果你还没试过，只需要访问 ketone.com/steven，你还能在第一笔订阅订单上享受八折优惠。

So if you haven't tried these yet, all you have to do is go to ketone.com/steven, you'll also get 30% off your first subscription order.

你还能拿到限量的 Ketone IQ 周边产品，当然，还有那些可能改变你生活的认知提升效果。

You'll get exclusive Ketone IQ merch and, of course, cognitive benefits that might just change your life.

假设你现在有个十六岁的孩子，雷，孩子问你：爸，你怎么看？

So if you had kids that were 16 years old now, Ray, and they said, dad, what what do you think?

根据你对未来的了解，你觉得我应该做些什么？

Based on everything you know about the future, what should I be doing?

首先，得看你生活中什么对你来说最重要。

First of all, there's the question of what what matters most in your lifestyle?

所以我要稍微探讨一下哲学层面的问题，不能默认收入最高就是最好的。

So I'm gonna get philosophical, not, assuming that the highest income is the best.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为人活着嘛，终究是要追求幸福和健康的。

Because happiness, you want happiness and health.

所以回答你这个问题的话，除了满足基本生活需求之外，你拥有的财富多少和幸福程度其实几乎没什么关联。

And so in answering your question, there's very little correlation between the amount of money you have and the level of happiness that you have past the basic level.

那我先回答你的问题好了，最常规的回答可能会说要去赚尽可能多的钱。

And so I could answer your question first, which the obvious way is to say to earn the most amount of money.

不过我先把话说在前面，结合我自己的经历等等来说，我很喜欢待在大自然里，而这件事几乎花不了我什么钱。

And I wanna start off in saying that, you know, my experiences and so on is, like, I love being in nature, and it doesn't cost me hardly anything.

我的意思是，这取决于你的核心优势在哪里。

I mean, it depends where your pull is.

所以别忽略了你的核心优势以及它究竟意味着什么。

And so don't lose sight of your pull and what it's about.

你要做的是让自己达到一个不必惊慌的水平。

What you want to do is you want to get above the level that you, don't have to panic.

我们刚才还讨论过，我能维持生活几个月，以及如何确保这一点，并让自己对想要的生活充满激情和期待？

We just earlier discussed how many months can I live and to be able to secure that and to be excited and have that passion or whatever it is, the life that I want to have?

所以我想强调一下，别忘了这一点。

So I just want to emphasize, keep in mind of that.

但同时，我的原则是让工作和热情合二为一，可别把赚钱这事儿给忘了，对吧？

But then also, you know, my principle is make your work and your passion the same thing, and don't forget about the money part, right?

所以你要了解自己的本性。

So know your nature.

我平时就跟我的孙子孙女这么说。

This is what I tell my grandkids, okay?

你有感觉，也有自己的天性。

You have a feel and you also have a nature.

这不只是喜好的问题。

It's not just your preferences.

每个人的想法都不一样。

People think differently.

有些人更爱冒险。

Some are more adventurous.

有些人没那么爱冒险，有些人更偏向概念化或艺术型，喜欢靠想象力思考，而且乐在其中。

Some are less adventurous, some are more conceptual or artistic and can think with imagination, and they love doing that.

但也有人不喜欢这样。

Some people don't like that.

有些人觉得生活应该更具体、更确定，等等。

Some people want to make life should be more concrete and more certain and so on.

这就是你的天性。

That's your nature.

这种天性一部分是天生的，另一部分是在早年生活中逐渐形成的。

You're partially, you're a lot born with that nature and you also learn it in your earlier years.

我们对神经可塑性等机制已经很了解了。

We know this of how neuroplasticity works and so on.

所以，我们都在寻找天性与发展路径之间的契合点。

So we are all on a journey to find the match between our nature and our path.

当你找到那条路时，别忘了钱的问题。

And you find that path, but you can't forget about this money part

在追求这个目标的时候，别忘了钱的事。

Don't while you're pursuing that forget about the money.

比如，你的孙辈来找你，说他们想当律师。

So if your you know, grandkids came to you and they said, I wanna become a lawyer.

你会说，听我说。

Would you say, listen.

这样就是忽略了钱的问题，因为我觉得AI可能会取代这个职业，还是你会说好的？

That's forgetting about the money because I think AI might take that job, or would you say yes?

如果他们跟我说，我想做一份需要动脑筋的工作，你会怎么想？

Would you if they said I wanna be I think you I wanna do a thinking job.

我想说的是，历史已经证明，最成功的往往不是最聪明的人，也不是最聪明的物种。

Let me say that history has shown that it's not the most intelligent people or the most intelligent species that are the most successful.

也不一定是那些最努力的人，尽管努力确实非常重要。

And it's not necessarily those that work the hardest, although these things are very important.

真正成功的，是那些适应能力最强的人。

It is those species people who are also most adaptable.

所以在你的一生中，将会发生巨大的变化。

And so there's going to be great change in your lifetime.

没错，现在就是人工智能。

So yes, today it's artificial intelligence.

但要是回到不久以前，我们甚至都不知道人工智能会像今天这样存在，而未来也会是这样。

But if you went back not long ago, we didn't even know artificial intelligence would exist the way artificial intelligence today exists, and the future will be like that.

所以当你确定方向的时候，以前是确保你会写代码。

So when you're nailing it down you know, it used to be make sure that, you know how to, code.

然后 Claude Code 出现了，所有做编程的人都在担心自己的工作。

And then Claude Code comes along, and all of those who are coding, worry about their jobs.

对吧？

Okay?

那么，到底什么才是最重要的呢？

So what is it that matters?

对吧？

Okay?

从某种意义上说，是一种生活态度，它带来了普遍的理解力，也带来了适应能力。

It is the approach to life in a sense that produces the general understanding and also the adaptability.

我觉得这跟了解自己有很大关系。

I think a lot has to do with knowing yourself.

所以我在《原则》里提到，人的性格特质对于适合什么工作非常重要。

That's why in Building Bridgewater, the personalities of the person were very important in what suited their jobs.

后来我设计了一套性格测试，还把它做成了在线版本，任何人都可以去测一下。

And then I, built this, a personality profile test, and then I made it online for anybody to go take.

大概三十分钟。

It's about thirty minutes.

网上免费就能看。

It's free online.

名字叫《原则你》。

It's called Principles You.

它能帮你深入了解自己的本性。

That'll tell you a lot about your nature.

明白吗？

Okay?

但你的目标是找到自己的本性，以及适合的路径。

But your goal is to find that nature and what are the paths.

有好几条路可走，而且这些路会不断变化，帮你发现自己的本性。

And there are several paths, and they're constantly changing to find that nature.

明白吗？

Okay?

你要去尝试。

You'd experiment.

你会慢慢了解自己。

You learn.

明白吗？

Okay?

但你很可能是因为自己的本性，才被吸引到这份工作的。

But, you you know, you probably, were pulled into this job by your nature.

对吧？

Right?

所以，你把它做成了，现在它就摆在这儿。

And so and and you made it work, and here it is.

它在各个维度上都行得通，对每个人来说都是这样。

It works in all of those dimensions, and it's like that for everybody.

是的。

Yeah.

这挺有意思的，因为你们总是展望未来。我觉得如果我在这个年纪，正打算规划职业方向，那我现在肯定比以前更迷茫，尤其是还要面对应届生就业难的问题，但

It's it's it's interesting because you look forward to the future, and I I think if I was a young person at this stage and I was trying to set out where to aim my career, I would be more confused now than ever before, especially because they're also contending with this unemployability crisis amongst entry But

如果你说你会迷茫，是因为没法预知未来，没错。

if you're talking about you'd be confused because you can't anticipate the future, that's right.

事实就是这样，对吧？

That's just the way it is, right?

接着你会想，面对这种现实，我到底需要什么呢？

And if you say, what is it that I need given that reality?

好的，得去学习。

Okay, need to learn.

我得知道怎么充分利用像AI这样的工具，来扩展自己的知识，并且尽可能发挥自己的能力，去做那些能让自己感到充实和有成就感的事情。

I need to know how to maximize the use of tools like AI to be able to increase what I know and how do I use that to the best of my ability to be as useful as possible doing things that fulfill me.

明白。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Okay?

所以这就是你需要做的。

So that's what you need to do.

你问自己该做什么。

You're asking what you need to do.

你得接受一个事实，就是未来到底什么样，谁也说不准。

Just get over the fact that you don't know what the future's gonna be like.

所以如果你非要找个确切的答案，比如以后是当程序员，还是做别的什么？

So if you're looking for an answer, is it gonna be a computer programmer, is it gonna be this or that?

不是，关键是提升你的认知能力，现在做起来太容易了，对吧？

No, just maximize your ability to know, which is so easy to do nowadays, right?

所以先把认知能力最大化，再用它来提升你的价值，找到让你开心的工作。

So maximize that and then use that to maximize your usefulness and jobs that make you happy.

这才是我能给你的最好建议，就我这个16岁孩子而言。

And that's the thing, that's the best I can give you in terms of more my 16 year old.

这是我能给他们的最好建议，因为我真不想误导他们，让他们以为非得选某个特定方向不可。

That's the best I can give them, because I I don't wanna mislead them that it's the thing,

就是那个具体的工作。

that it's the particular job.

明白吗？

Okay?

那样会误导他们的。

That'll mislead them.

你提到过八十年一个周期，最终会形成新的世界秩序，听起来你是说，在周期快结束时，会出现财富差距扩大、镀金时代——有些人拥有很多奢侈品，另一些人却挣扎求生，这其实是资本主义的产物。

You talked about this eighty year cycle, which results in this new world order, It sounded like you were saying that near the end of the cycle, you see wealth inequality, and you see the Gilded Age where some people have lots of nice things and other people at the other end are struggling, and this is a function of capitalism.

首先，

First of all,

这不仅仅是财富差距的问题，这是一个现实情况。

it's a reality that it's not only just a wealth gap difference.

如果大多数人的制度不能很好地服务于大多数人，那就会出问题。

And if the majority system is not working for the majority well, you're gonna have a problem.

没错，这也促使人们去通过教育和其他基础手段创造更多机会，设定一个底线，确保没有人会低于这个水平，因为这对个人和社会都不好。

And yes, contributed to these things where one wants to create more opportunity through education and through other basics, that there's a certain level at a floor that nobody should go underneath because it's bad for them and it's bad for the society.

顺便补充一下这一点，我和我妻子住在康涅狄格州。

And just to embellish on that point, my wife and I live in Connecticut.

按人均收入算，我觉得它是全美第二富裕的州，但22%的高中生要么辍学，要么成绩不及格，缺勤率超过25%。

The, on a per capita income basis, I think it's the second richest state, but twenty two percent of the high school students have either dropped out of high school or are failing with absentee rates of greater than 25%.

结果就是，帮派、枪击、毒品等问题频发，导致大量人员入狱。

And as a result, a lot of it is gangs, shootings, drugs, and so on that leads to a lot of incarcerations.

而且，监狱开支现在已经超过了教育预算。

And the bill for incarcerations has become larger than the education budget.

当这种循环持续下去的时候，系统必须为大多数人服务，这才是关键所在。

When you have that kind of cycle and so on, the system has to work for most of the people and so on, so you have that dynamic.

但归根结底，还是得看生产力。

But it all comes down to productivity.

在我看来，不管谁来执政，政府都很难把事情管好。

And so the way I look at it is the government run by almost anybody can't make these things run well.

政府本来就不擅长把事情运转得高效。

I mean, governments do not make things run well.

那既然这样，凭什么还给政府拨钱，指望它能把事情做好？

So what is it like to give them the money and expect that they're gonna make things work well?

面对这种情况，你真能指望它能运转得好吗？

And so you look at this set of circumstances, and you say, is gonna make it work well?

说实话，我不知道答案。

And I don't know the answer.

这些都是预算上的难题，方方面面都得考虑。

And these are budget considerations and so on.

你得优先做那些能让系统运转良好的事情。

You have to prioritize the things that make it work well.

你知道那是什么吗？

And and you know what that is?

就是教育人们变得高效且有教养。

That is educating people to be productive and civil.

我们太少谈论礼貌了，比如怎样合作才能取得有成效的结果。

We don't talk enough about civility, you know, how we work together to be able to achieve a productive result.

按现在的趋势，更可能发生的是激烈争执，然后出现债务问题这类情况，而不是大家齐心协力，想办法营造一个能保障优质教育、提升人们生产力、让社会为大多数人更好运转的环境。

And the way these cycles go, it's more likely that they're gonna have a big fight, and we're gonna have, you know, a debt problem and those kinds of things than how we're going to come together and work out how to achieve this environment, which takes care of wonderful education and productivity of people and all of that to make the society work better, for most people.

情况就是这样，也确实发生了。

And that's the way it looks, and that's what's happened.

资本主义似乎导致了不平等。

Capitalism leads to inequality, it seems.

是的。

Yeah.

不一定非得这样。

That doesn't have to.

有些社会，比如新加坡，还有一些北欧国家，它们都设定了一个底线，确保每个人都能接受良好的教育，拥有合适的住房和基本的医疗保障，这些是基础，对吧？

There were some societies, like in Singapore, some of the Scandinavian countries, some societies, there is a floor that everybody can have good education, adequate housing, and adequate healthcare, the foundations, okay?

因为一旦低于这个水平，社会就要付出惨痛的代价，这些人会从社会的资产变成负担。

Because if you go below those levels, the society will pay terribly for it because those people will become liabilities, not assets of the society.

他们还会带来不稳定因素。

They'll be disruptive.

那财富税呢？

So what about wealth taxes?

毕竟现在这个话题争议特别大。

Because this is the big debate now.

现在英国最激烈的争论就是要向富人征税。

The and the big debate in The UK at the moment is tax the rich.

这几周咱们国内的新闻全在说这件事。

It's been all over our news over the last couple of weeks.

纽约和洛杉矶现在热议的话题是财富税和对富人征税。

The big debate in New York and LA is wealth taxes and tax the rich.

这主意到底好不好呢？

Good idea, bad idea?

这个想法在以下几个方面实施起来非常困难。

It's a very difficult idea in the following ways.

我主要是在讨论具体的操作机制。

I'm just talking about the mechanics.

他们得把资产变现，这样才有钱交税，这也是我们刚才提到的可能引发泡沫破裂的因素之一。

They have to sell the wealth, and that contributes to get the money to pay the taxes, that's one of those things that can cause the bubble to burst as we're talking about.

从实际操作层面来说，这非常困难，不像采用阶梯式计税基础那样方便。

And then operationally, it's very difficult, unlike if they did it as stepped up tax basis.

换句话说，现在你去世时，资本利得会被搁置，你不需要缴纳资本利得税，而是缴纳遗产税。

In other words, right now, when you die, your capital gains gets put aside and you don't have to pay capital gains taxes, you pay inheritance taxes.

其实有很多方法可以在不损害经济的前提下增加税收。

And there are ways that you can raise taxes and not hurt the economy.

但我们必须意识到，这会减少投资，因为财富主要都是用来投入生产的。

But we do have to realize that it will lessen investment because what wealth is mostly used for is to put it into investment.

所以你必须同时推动那些能提升生产率的措施，比如教育之类的。

So you have to do this with a, at the same time, the improvements in those that are going to improve productivity, like education and so on.

如果你只是做财富转移支付，却因此削弱了社会的生产效率，那问题就大了。

If you're just making transfer payments, wealth payments, and you undermine the productivity of the society by doing that.

换句话说，你把原本用于资本支出和能提升社会生产力的投资，转成了纯粹的消费，这根本创造不了生产力，迟早会出问题。

In other words, you're just giving it for consumption and so on, and the money's going from what was capital expenditures and those kinds of investments that make better, more productive society to go to, in a sense, consumption and so on that doesn't produce that productivity, that's gonna be a problem.

所以你得想清楚，怎么让人更有生产力，怎么让整个社会的大多数人变得更有生产力？

So you have to think how do you make people productive and how do you make your society productive for most people?

否则，你就得想办法让那些不那么有生产力的人群也能受益，虽然整体社会的生产率提高了，但你还是要守住底线——教育的底线、生活条件的底线。

Or you're going to have to find a way where you say that other group of people who is not productive, the overall society could have a higher level of productivity, but we're going to still establish this bottom that I'm talking about, the bottom in education, the bottom in conditions.

然后你得问，谁有这个能力来实现这一切？

And then you have to say, who is capable of doing it?

建立一个真正有生产力的社会。

Building a society that will be productive.