The Investing & Crypto Expert: "We Only Have 6 Years Until Everything Changes!", "The S&P 500 Isn't Worth Your Time!", "Don't Keep Spare Cash In A Bank!"

但我只是想说，回报是实实在在的。

But all I'm saying is returns are there.

而且回报的水平还不一样。

And then you've got different levels of return.

咱们拿比特币来说吧，其实不如做个对比。

If we look at Bitcoin, well, actually, let's compare it.

标普500，这个数字待会儿会很重要。

The S and P 500, and this will be an important number later.

标普500是什么？

What's the S and P 500?

就是美国股市。

That's The US stock market.

这是衡量股市最全面的指标。

It's the broadest measure of the stock market.

你也可以买它的股票。

And you can buy shares in it.

现在，它的年均增长率大概在10%到11%左右。

Now, that grows at about 10% a year, 11% a year.

所以你想想，你有一千美元，每年涨11%，得熬到猴年马月才能赚到钱，对吧？

So let's imagine you've got your $1,000 Well, 11% a year is going to take you a fucking long time to make any money, right?

这根本浪费你的时间。

So it is not worth your time.

理财顾问会说：没错，你必须这么做。

The financial advisors will say, yes, you must do this.

赶紧开始吧。

Start now.

但我真得说，抱歉，

I'm like, I'm sorry.

这根本改变不了你的生活。

It's just not going to change your life.

好，接下来我们看看科技股。

Okay, then we go to technology stocks.

纳斯达克每年大概涨18%。

NASDAQ does about 18% a year.

这下开始有感觉了，因为复利这东西时间一长，数字就堆上去了。

Okay, that's starting to add up because these numbers compound after a while.

从一千涨到一千二，然后那两千再涨百分之二十，就这么滚下去。

It goes from 1,000 to 1,200, and then, you know, it's another 20% on top of that 20%.

这些数字涨起来可快了。

These numbers add up fast.

比特币从2011年到现在，年均涨幅145%，中间还三次跌了80%，照样是这个数。

Bitcoin, since 2011, been 145% a year, even with it falling eighty percent three times in the middle of that.

年均145%，只要你拿得久，嘿，这才真开始赚钱了。

So 145% a year, as long as you're in it long enough, okay, now that's really starting to pay off.

再往更冒险的方向走，我……

And then as you get slightly more speculative, I.

呃。

E.

多承担点风险，回报确实会更高，但风险也跟着变大了。

Take a bit more risk in things, well, the returns go up, but they become riskier.

一旦你踏入这个领域，嘿，那完全是另一个世界了。

So, once you start moving into that world, okay, this is a whole different world now.

现在，手里有1000美元的人，也有机会发财了。

Now, the guy with $1,000 can get rich.

那买房呢？

What about buying a house?

我觉得大多数人一有点多余收入，我就特别清楚，

Because I think most people think the minute they get some excess income and I know for sure.

我说的大多数人啊，街上九成五的人觉得，只要一有点闲钱，就该存起来，买第一套房，办个房贷。

When I say most people, it's like 95% of people that walk the streets think that the minute you get some excess income, you should take it and put it in a savings account and buy your first house, get your first mortgage.

但从财富积累和彻底翻身的角度来看，这招靠谱吗？

Now as a strategy for wealth creation and unfucking your life, is that a good approach?

不靠谱。

No.

因为这根本不是创造财富。

Because it's not wealth creation.

人们觉得房子是资产，但其实你几乎从来不会为了套现而卖掉房子。

People think of houses as like an asset, but in the end, you barely ever will sell your house to take the money out.

年纪大了，可能才会考虑换小一点的。

You might downsize later in life.

实在不得已的时候，才可能会卖。

If absolutely needed, you might sell it.

但总的来说，你的房子其实是你的生活方式账户。

But generally speaking, your house is the lifestyle bank.

这一点特别重要。

Now, that is super important.

我觉得这可能是最重要的一点——房子就是你的生活方式账户。

And I think it is the most important trait of all is the lifestyle bank.

那你做这一切，到底是为了什么？

So, what do you do this all for?

你想要的是生活方式。

You want lifestyle.

那你为了早点拥有房子和安全感，就甘愿牺牲未来更多的钱吗？

So, do you sacrifice your future self having more money by having a house and having security earlier?

我觉得那种时代早就过去了。

I would argue those days are gone.

你这话什么意思？

What do you mean?

我那时候能买，是因为房价还不到我收入的三倍。

So, I could do it because it was three times income.

对。

Yeah.

所以那时候房子对我来说并不贵。

So, a house was not expensive for me.

所以我能早点开始还贷，压力也没那么大。

So, I could start paying it off a bit sooner, and it became not a big deal.

但现在，你的房贷金额很可能远超你的收入。

But now, your mortgage is likely a huge amount versus your income.

你这一辈子都得为它还钱。

You'll spend the rest of your life paying it off.

而且大部分时候，你都在还利息。

And most of the time, you're just paying off the interest.

所以你根本没攒下什么实质东西。

So you don't actually you're not getting anywhere.

那房子根本不算你的。

You don't own that house.

只要出点岔子，银行立马就把房子收走。

Anything goes wrong, the bank takes it away from you.

所以你得真正掌握自己生活的主动权。

So you've got to get more control of your life.

而办法就是让自己的积蓄不断增长。

And that is by having savings that are growing.

那你就能自己做决定了。

Then you can make the choice.

比如说，有个人从一千块赚到了五十万，中途他可能想：算了，我拿点钱出来，存进我的生活基金，先买套房吧。

You know, let's say that example of the person gone from $1,000 to $500,000 Maybe en route, they say, well, I'm going to take some money off the table and put it in my lifestyle bank, and I'm going to buy a house.

我这一辈子都是这么做的。

That's what I've done my whole career.

我觉得，生活基金才是真正的回报。

And I find the lifestyle bank that that's the reward.

因为现在就算你真能把我的房子收走，我也无所谓了。

Because now it's like, okay, maybe you can take my house away.

所以，如果我想积累财富，买房根本不是个好主意。

So if I'm trying to build wealth, buying a house is not a good idea.

这根本不是积累财富的好方法。

It's not the best approach to take to build wealth.

你是说，这其实根本算不上财富？

You're telling me that it's actually Not wealth.

这跟心理和情绪有关，房子的事儿，根本不是为了让我变富。

About psychology and about emotion, the house, and it's not about making myself wealthy.

我想读一些大家常在评论里写的，对，就是这类话题下的留言。

I I wanted to read some of the comments that people often post Yeah.

我们聊这些话题的时候，我觉得你最能回应这些观点。

When we talk about these subjects because I think you're probably the guy to address some of them.

我买了房，这真是我做过最棒的决定。

I bought a house, and it's the best thing I ever did.

它彻底改变了我的思维方式。

It launched my mindset in new directions.

别忘了，拥有自己的空间对心理影响巨大，尤其对那些生活在不健康环境中的人来说，可能彻底改变人生。

Remember that having your own space has profound psychological impact and can be life changing for some that don't live in a healthy environment.

这其实正好印证了你刚才说的——这更多是心理层面的问题。

I guess that speaks to your point about it being a psychological

但如果你租的是个好地方，而且租金稳定、不会随便涨，你也能有同样的感觉。

But you would also get the same feeling if you rented that was in a nice place and you knew that, you know, your rent was secure, wasn't gonna go up.

不管怎么说，我觉得这中间没啥区别。

Whatever it was, I don't think there's any difference to that.

只要你觉得有安全感，就能大胆去尝试别的事。

As long as you can feel that you've got security, you can take risk and do other things.

我2014年买了套房，七年之后卖了，赚了六万六千块。

I purchased a house in 2014, and I sold it seven years later for 66 ks profit.

我把大部分房产净值都投进银行的理财组合了，结果现在跌了2%。

I've put a large amount of the equity into a financial investment portfolio with my bank, and it's been down 2% since.

我还按巴菲特的策略买了些股票，现在涨了18%。

I also put some money into different shares based on Warren Buffett's strategy, and that's now up 18%.

我有个朋友炒股亏了三四万。

A friend of mine also lost about 30 to 40 k on investing in the stock market.

这事儿真得小心点。

You have to be careful.

我觉得根本没什么标准答案。

I don't think there's a correct solution.

有些房子买下来真的赚翻了。

Some house purchases do amazing.

总有人说买房能赚大钱，这种想法我经常听到。

This idea that some house purchases do amazing and some people make returns is a sentiment I often see about buying a house.

是的。

Yes.

咱们今天在这儿，是在英国。

And, you know, we're here today in The UK.

很多人梦想着买两三套房子，贷款入手，租出去，用租金来还其他房贷。

There's a big idea about buying two or three houses, getting a mortgage, renting them out, using the cash flow to pay for the other one.

这可是不少人梦寐以求的投资组合。

That's a lot of people's dream portfolio idea.

我以前也出租过房子。

You know, I've rented out houses in the past.

但要是在伦敦这种大城市以外的地方，一般都挺坑的，因为老得修修补补。

Generally, if you're not in a big city like London, it's generally often a terrible business because you've got to repair them.

这里面门道可多了。

There's a lot that goes on.

头疼。

Headache.

真是头疼。

Headache.

租客啊。

Tenants.

是啊。

Yeah.

人们总觉得这钱来得容易。

You know, people think it's easy money.

我啥也不用干，钱就自己来了。

I just do nothing, and it all makes money.

这世上根本没什么轻松赚钱的事。

There is no easy money in this world.

而且还有风险。

And there's risk.

对吧？

Right?

那一层层的房贷，全靠你第一套房子的收入来撑着。

Because that little pyramid of mortgages are all backed by your income being able to pay the mortgage on the first house.

要是你失业了，会怎样？

If you lose your job, what happens?

那你一失业，可能经济也不景气，别人也都在丢工作。

Then it becomes problematic because if you're losing your job, maybe the economy is slow and other people are losing their job.

一不留神，这些房贷全都没人还了。

And suddenly, before you know it, none of these mortgages are getting paid.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

这些事儿你根本一无所知。

You don't know any of this stuff.

房子根本不是什么安全的投资。

Houses are not a safe investment.

感觉安全，是因为房价不会天天上下波动。

They feel safe because the price doesn't go up and down every day.

又不在屏幕上显示。

It's not on the screen.

财经新闻里也看不到。

It's not on CNBC.

但房子流动性差，平时很少交易，可一旦出事，情况就变了。

But they're illiquid, which means they don't often trade, but sometimes something happens in that equation.

要么房价大跌，要么你收入没了，整个系统几秒钟就崩了。

Either the price goes down or your ability to pay that mortgage goes, and then the whole thing collapses in seconds.

2008年就是双倍的这种情况。

And 2008 was that double.

大家全失业了，房贷还不了，房价也直接崩盘。

Everyone lost their jobs, so they couldn't pay the mortgage, and the house prices collapsed.

所以我觉得房子根本不是万能解药。

And so I don't think houses is the panacea.

它也不是完美的答案。

They're not the perfect answer.

没错，它有时候可以。

Yes, they can be.

房地产是个还不错的投资机会，待会儿我们聊聊货币贬值和货币体系是怎么回事。

Real estate is a decent opportunity, and we'll talk about debasement and currency and how that all works.

房地产嘛，还行吧，但绝对算不上最好。

And real estate is okay, it's certainly not the best.

但你要真有钱，不用贷款买房，能像威斯敏斯特公爵那样，把伦敦一半的地都攥在手里，光收租就完事，那确实能传好几代，富得流油。

But, you know, yes, if you're rich and you can own these things without mortgages, and you can be the Duke of Westminster and own half of London and just collect rent, You can do that for x generations and be rich forever.

我懂。

I get it.

但咱们大多数人根本没机会走到那一步。

But most of us don't get into that situation.

我兄弟做了十年投资银行，现在在我公司和基金里工作。他以前跟我说，年轻的时候要想积累财富，就得找那些很少人能玩的游戏，因为你有独特优势——他说，谁都能买房。

My brother, who has been an investment banker for about ten years, now works in my company and my fund, he said to me when I was young, when it comes to creating wealth, what you want to do is focus on games that very few people can play that you have a unique advantage in because he goes, everyone can buy a house.

所以你别指望靠这个赚大钱。

So you should assume that the returns from doing it aren't going to be amazing.

他让我去找到一个能让你杠杆拉满的玩法。

So he was like, go find a game that you have high leverage.

你得有

You have a

不公平的优势。

unfair advantage.

在某个领域做到专家。

Be the expert in something.

对，没错。

It yeah.

你要在某个领域成为专家，靠你的知识、经验、人脉，别人玩不了，但你能玩。

Be the expert in something where you because of your knowledge, your expertise, your experience, your contacts, you can play that game, but very few other people can.

他说，真正的高回报就藏在这种游戏里。

And he goes, that's where you'll yield your highest returns.

我一直以来都这么想，很理性地分析：如果人人都能玩的游戏，别指望靠它赚大钱，回报肯定低得可怜。

And I always thought about that just very logically thinking, if everyone can play the game, don't play that game if you're expecting high returns because the returns are gonna be very low.

大多数人一有点收入，第一件事就是买房——这几乎是人人都在玩的游戏。

And I'd say the first game everyone plays when they get a bit bit bit of income is buy a house.

所以从逻辑上讲，你心里就得清楚：

So logically, you can go, okay.

除非走大运，不然买房根本赚不到什么大钱。

That's not gonna yield me the best returns unless I get lucky.

除非你特别幸运，比如在乡下买个破仓库，结果隔壁突然冒出一家Whole Foods，瞬间变成全城焦点——但这种事概率太低了，真没几个能碰上。

Unless I get exceptionally lucky and I buy some barn in an area and then they build a bloody Whole Foods next door and it becomes the the center of the world, which isn't, again, the probability is still not great.

你觉得这个观点怎么样？

So what do you think of that as a theory?

这跟我说的一样，关键是成为某个领域的专家，这样你才能发现别人看不到的机会。

Well, it's the same theory, as I said, is be an expert in something and you can find more opportunity.

如果你只是个通才，那真的很难，因为你跟一堆做着普通事的普通人竞争，对吧？

If you're just a generalist, it's really hard because you're competing against average people doing average things, right?

你就光是在保险公司上班，天啊，那地方几万人呢。

If you're just working in an insurance office, I mean, there's thousands of people.

而且你还要跟AI竞争。

Plus, you're competing with AI.

你咋可能在那种环境里脱颖而出呢？

You know, how are you ever going to be something within that?

那你怎么才能成为专家呢？

How do you become an expert?

你可以自己学啊，比如，如果你不讨厌这个行业，觉得自己还懂点，那不如去学点管理技能。

Now, you could teach yourself, okay, if I don't mind this industry and I think I know it, maybe I need to learn management skills.

你可以天天听播客，专门钻研管理这事儿。

Maybe I spend all the time listening to podcasts and learning management.

说不定这样，你就能掌握自己的命运了。

Maybe it's and that's I can then manifest my destiny.

但正如你所说，做别人不做的事，真是一种超能力。

But as you say, doing something other people aren't doing is a superpower.

说真的，特别有意思的是

You know, what's really interesting with

成为专家这个想法，我觉得特别关键。

that is this idea of becoming an expert, I think, critically important.

但我后来发现，还有一个更重要的步骤，就是得知道该把你的专长用在哪个市场上，才能获得最大回报。

But then there's this other step I found, which is knowing what market to apply your expertise to to yield the greatest return.

我举个简单的例子：我职业生涯的前半段，我成了社交媒体方面的专家。

And the very simple analogy I'll give you is for the first portion of my career, I was I became an expert in social media.

有了这项技能和专长，你可以做不少事。

Now with that skill set and expertise, you can do a number of things.

比如帮一家时尚公司多卖点裙子，回报是有的，但比较小。

You can help a fashion company sell more dresses, and that will yield x return, a smaller return.

到了职业生涯的后半段，我才意识到，我的专长如果用在帮上市公司在IPO前讲好故事上，价值最高，也最稀缺。

Then in the second portion of my career, I realized that that expertise was highest value and most rare if I applied it to helping public companies tell their story before their IPO.

因为我当时帮的是上市公司，他们用我的社交媒体技能，带来的收益可能是几十亿。

Because the variance and outcome for the public company that I was applying my social media expertise to was billions.

所以在我职业生涯的第二阶段，我主要帮那些即将上市、要进公开市场的公司。它们的市值可能是一十亿美元，如果讲故事讲得好，在现在散户都被华尔街投机情绪带动的环境下，甚至能冲到三十亿。那时候，它们就会给我七位数的报酬，买我的本事。

So in the second sort of sort of era of my career, I worked with companies that were about to IPO, about to go to the public markets, where their performance could be, you know, their market cap could be 1,000,000,000, or if they were really good at telling their story in a world where retail investors are now so interesting to everyone because of Wall Street bets, their market cap could be 3,000,000,000, then that means they would pay me 7 figures for my skill set.

我经常在想这个问题。

And I often think about it.

你就想想股票市场。

You think about the the stock market.

要是把一家公司放到伦敦上市，估值可能就一千万。

If you put a company on the stock market in London, it's valued at, let's say, 1,000,000.

但要是放到美国上市，同样的公司，估值就能到四千万。

If you put it on the stock market in America, the same company is valued at 4,000,000, the same company.

你想想你的技能，也得这么看——你把本事用在哪儿，才能赚得最多？

If you think of your skills like that, where are you applying your skills to reach reap reap the highest return?

咱们回头说说那个擦窗的，现在他决定把生意做大，雇了二十个人。

Let's go back to the window cleaner who's now decided to build his business, and he's got 20 people.

是的

Yeah.

好吧，现在他得操心这二十个人的管理，有人生病，出各种状况，客户还不满意。

Okay, so he's now got the hassle of managing all these people, and they turn out sick, and then this happens, and then the customer's unhappy.

所以更好的办法其实是搞个培训项目，教别人怎么开自己的擦窗公司，把自己从苦力中解放出来——做这个赚的钱，比你亲自去擦窗户多得多。

So maybe the right answer is to create a program to train other people to build their own window cleaning companies, free yourself from the rat race, and build this business, you'll make more money doing that than you will from actually cleaning the windows.

完全正确。

A 100%.

因为你正在往上走，进入知识的高阶领域。

Because you're going up the knowledge curve.

越往上，你越成专家。

The further up, the more of an expert you are.

有两件事，大家得想清楚。

And there's two things that people need to think about.

你要么做的是一个特别广的市场，比如糖果棒。

You either have a very broad market for something, candy bars.

那你就得做大规模销售，这可太难了。

Well, then you've got to sell massive scale, and it's really hard.

或者你就瞄准一个特定的用户群体，买家也好、客户也好，尤其是那些有钱人。

Or you go through an area that has a very specific group of users, buyers, whatever, and particularly ones that have a lot of money.

咱们再回头说说买房投机这个事儿。

So let's go back to the house idea again, the guy speculating on houses.

有两种房产投机者。

So there's two house speculators.

一种是到处奔波，找便宜房源，装修翻新，出租赚钱，靠现金流慢慢积累的。

There's the guy or girl who's hustling and renting them out, finding the cheap bargain, doing them up, renting, getting the cash flow, doing that.

另一种呢，花一千万买套房，打造成顶级豪宅，卖给亿万富翁，转手就卖五千万。两者的回报差距简直天壤之别。

And then there's the guy who's buying a place for $10,000,000 making it ultra luxury and selling it to the billionaires and flipping it for $50 The difference in the returns is staggering.

为什么呢？

Why?

因为有一群人根本不在乎价格。

Because one group is price insensitive.

事实上，东西越贵，他们越想要。

In fact, the more expensive it is, the more they want it.

另一类人呢，是在跟所有人抢生意。

The other group is trying to compete with everybody else.

就是城里那两居室的公寓，对吧？

You know, the two bedroom apartment in the city, Right?

这种房子，成千上万套都在翻新、出售，到处都是。

There's thousands of those being done up and sold and everything else.

所以你之前说的没错，回报确实低。

So to your point earlier, the returns are less.

但如果你做的是顶级豪宅，那买家群体是固定的，你可能连他们是谁都一清二楚，对吧？

But no, if you're doing super high end, then there's a defined group of buyers of which you probably know them all Yeah.

都是熟人。

Personally.

你可以按他们的品味来，而且他们根本不在乎钱。

You can counter to their taste, and they have unlimited money.

这关键就在于，对吧？

That's the big thing, isn't it?

关键看你到底在为谁解决问题。

It's like who you're solving the problem for.

你可以给住在普利茅斯平房里的多萝西擦窗户，也可以去给谷歌擦窗户。

Because you can clean, like, Dorothy's windows, lives in a bungalow in Plymouth, or you can clean Google's windows.

这样一来，合同自然就更大了。

And therefore, you get a bigger contract.

还能保证有持续的活儿干。

You get guaranteed work.

大概还能赚回点钱。

Probably get a return.

窗户也多了，擦得更过瘾。

You get more windows to clean.

但说到底，还是一份合同。

It's still one contract.

但本质上还是一单生意。

It's still one sell.

技能要求其实是一样的。

It's the same skill set.

技能完全一样。

Same skill set.

人家给你的报酬会高得多。

They're gonna pay you a lot more.

所以我总觉得，咱们一聊‘成为专家’，就漏了最关键的一点：你到底卖给谁？

And then and so I just don't think I always find that bit missing when we talk about, like, become an expert, but then, like, who do you sell to?

你要卖的是那些对价格不敏感、没人争着去卖的客户。

And your idea of selling to people that are more price insensitive and that aren't gonna and that less people are trying to sell to.

他们的需求可太明确了。

Well, they're super defined.

没错。

Right.

比如汤姆·比卢，咱们都认识，汤姆是我好朋友。

Like Tom Billiou, who we both know, Tom's a good friend.

他赚钱是因为高蛋白生酮食品突然火了。

You know, he made his money because there was a rise in high protein ketogenic foods.

那时候想找个健康零食挺难的，人嘴馋，又不能吃糖。

And it was difficult to have that snack bar because people still have a sweet tooth, but they can't have sugar.

于是他和合伙人搞出了Quest，现在满大街都是。

So him and his partners built Quest, which is now everywhere.

你发现的是个趋势，这特别特别特别关键——找到一个需求没被满足的热门市场，因为是健康相关，人们愿意花大价钱。

So what you found is a trend, and this is really, really, really important, is you find a trending market where people are underserved, and they'll pay a lot of money because it's health.

说白了，就是财富和健康。

It's like wealth and health.

在咱们这行，人花钱根本不在乎。

People pay fortunes in our industry.

所以你很快就能赚大钱。

And so, you make a fortune very quickly.

现在这行已经饱和了，没那么容易了。

Now, it's a saturated market, so it's not that easy.

但另一件关键的事是，如果你从零开始，就专注做一件事。

But this is the other key, key thing is if you've got a clean slate, do one thing.

跟着趋势走，尤其是长期趋势。

Follow a trend, a secular trend.

长期趋势就是那种持续很久的变化。

A secular trend is a long term trend.

就是正在发生的大方向，对吧？

Something that's happening, right?

现在所有东西都在数字化。

So, everything is being digitized.

你之前就搭上了这趟车，对吧？

You rode that trend, right?

社交媒体大概是2010年左右才兴起的。

Social media was new from about 2010.

现在市场已经饱和了。

Right now, it's a saturated market.

而且AI现在也杀进来了。

And we've got AI coming in.

但你赶上了那个长期趋势的爆发期。

But you rode a secular trend in the hyper acceleration phase.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你才做得这么好。

That's why you did well.

你要找那种规模大、有意义、能验证的趋势，然后用你的专长去切入。

So you look for a trend that's big, meaningful, and provable, and use your skill set in that.

我们在美国就看到过这种现象。

We've seen something in America.

我不确定你是不是只是碰巧赶上了这个趋势。

I don't know if you just saw the trend.

终于，肥胖人数开始下降了。

Finally, the obesity numbers ticked down.

我还不知道这事呢。

I didn't know that.

对，这是美国五十年来第一次出现肥胖率下降。

Yeah, first time in fifty years obesity starts to fall in The US.

对吧？

Right?

这都是司美格鲁肽的功劳。

This is Ozempic effect.

可能也跟饮食调整有关。

And it's probably some diet effect.

我觉得，吃司美格鲁肽的人越多，就越会反思自己的饮食，意识到自己以前哪里出了问题。

My belief is the more people would take Ozempic, the more they also think about diet and understand that something went wrong for them.

我猜，健康饮食这个趋势里，会冒出 huge 的机会。

And my guess is there is going to be huge opportunities in that trend towards healthy eating.

另一件事呢，是在这个越来越依赖人工智能的在线数字世界里，会有两件事发生。

The other one is in an increasingly AI driven online digital world, there's two things that are going to happen.

第一，线上社群会越来越多。

One, the rise of digital communities.

你在做的是这样，我看得出来。

You see this in what you do.

我这边也是，我看得清清楚楚。

I see it in what I do.

这些线上社群对大家来说变得越来越重要。

They become more and more important communities online.

它们对人们来说真的很有意义。

They're meaningful for people.

而另一面呢，恰恰相反。

The other is the entire flip side.

我每天花十二个小时在Zoom会议里。

I spend twelve hours a day on Zoom calls.

对我来说，最有价值的东西是什么？

What is the most single valuable thing to me?

自然是最重要的。

Nature.

还有大自然和亲身体验。

Nature and experiences.

假设你就是那种特别喜欢户外的人。

So let's say you're that person that loves the outdoors.

那你就开个户外导览公司吧，因为你的工作短期内机器人根本取代不了。

Well, start a guiding company because your job is not going be taken by the robots anytime soon.

当然，你可以用无人机帮你拍拍照、找找动物，或者干点别的事儿。

Sure, you'll have drones with you so you could take photographs of the guests you're going with or look for animals or whatever you're doing.

你会用上科技，但你的工作不会被取代。

You'll be leveraging technology, but your job will not be replaced.

明白了。

Okay.

我接下来要说的，是一堆边听你讲边冒出来的想法。

What I'm about to say is a mishmash of ideas that came to mind as you're speaking.

第一个问题是，我怎么才能察觉到一个趋势呢？

The first one was how do I spot a trend?

我说的‘察觉’，是指当时那种切身的感觉。

And when I say that, I mean, how does it feel in the moment?

因为咱们俩抓住的那些趋势，当时都有一种特定的氛围。

Because the trends that you capitalized on and the trends that I capitalized on, they feel a certain way at the time.

我是说，那种颠覆性、反主流的感觉，别人会说你疯了、是傻子。

And here I'm talking about, like, how disruptive they are, contrarian, what people will say to you, they'll tell you you're an idiot.

还有，你刚才提到，现在这个时代，押注自然这类方向是个好主意。

And then with that as well, you talked about how right now in the world we live in, betting on things like nature is a good idea.

我其实就在领英上发过一篇帖子，讲的完全就是这个。

And I actually did a post on my LinkedIn about exactly this.

我说我现在的基金就投两样东西：AI和自动化，还有——完全相反的方向。

I said my investment fund is backing two things at the moment, AI and automation and the exact opposite.

我看过一个火遍全网的视频，讲的是阿姆斯特丹一家咖啡馆，人们每周都来，不准用手机，只看书、织毛衣。

Because I saw this viral video of people, and I think it was like a cafe in Amsterdam, who come now every week, no phones allowed, they read books, and they knit.

这家阿姆斯特丹的咖啡馆现在简直爆火。

And this cafe in Amsterdam is like exploding.

我待会儿就把这段视频放出来给大家看看。

I'll put the video of these people on the screen for everyone to see.

这让我突然意识到，这和我两个亿万富翁朋友私下跟我讲的话完全对得上。

And it made me realize, and that that overlaps with what a two billionaire friends of mine said to me in private.

他们是搞AI投资的亿万富翁。

They said, these are billionaires that invest in AI.

他们也投加密货币。

They invest in crypto.

你 probably 知道其中一个。

You probably know one of them.

他们还投致幻剂。

And they invest in psychedelics.

他们跟我说，如果你现在想投资，能投AI就投AI。

They said to me, if you want to invest right now, invest in AI if you can.

但如果投不了，那就投娱乐和社群。

But if you can't, invest in entertainment and community.

因为未来AI这么发达，生产力这么高，说不定还会推行全民基本收入，政府直接发钱，人们闲得慌，总得找点事做。

Because in a world of AI where productivity is so high and we maybe move towards some form of universal basic income where the government just hands people money, people are going to have so much free time on their hands that they're gonna need something to do with it.

所以他们跟我说，这就是为什么现在有那么多人去买足球俱乐部和体育战队——因为这既是社群，又是娱乐。

So they he said to me, this is why you're seeing this rise in people buying football clubs and these sporting franchises because that's one of the that's community and it's entertainment at the same time.

我把这些全告诉你了。

So I've thrown all of that at you.

对。

Yes.

与之相反的观点，我觉得同样重要。

The equal and opposite idea is, I think, very important.

我刚从赞比亚自驾回来，待了三周，睡在陆地巡洋舰的车顶帐篷里，跑遍了荒无人烟的地方。

I just came back from three weeks off roading in Zambia, living on a tent on the roof of a Toyota Land Cruiser that is off road prepared, and going out into total wiles.

你真的会变得特别活在当下，心里那些乱七八糟的事——车坏了、网上那些糟心事、政治纷争——全都被清空了。

And I can't express how in the present you become, how it cleanses your mind from all of the clutter, all of the things you worry about, the broken car or the whatever's going on online, the politics, all those.

醒来之后，脑子里就只剩最简单的事：谁去煮咖啡？谁去生火？谁来干点啥？

And it all becomes about you wake up, who's going to make the coffee, who's going to put the fire on, who's going to you know?

我们在线上花的时间越多，就越渴望这种真实的生活。

And so the more time we spend online, the more we desperately crave.

我在开曼群岛住，那儿就看得特别清楚。

I saw it in the Cayman Islands where I live.

那是个加勒比海岛。

So it's a Caribbean island.

那是2022年，世界还没缓过劲来。

And it was 2022, and the world hadn't really recovered.

通胀高得吓人。

You know, there was the high inflation.

很多人丢了工作。

People were losing jobs.

大家都对经济状况感到特别不安。

Everyone was really uncomfortable with the economic situation.

很多人过得挺痛苦的。

It was painful for a lot of people.

我们那年迎来了有史以来最火爆的旅游季。

We had a record tourist season.

我心想：这到底怎么回事？

I'm like, what the hell is going on here?

平时这种时候，非必要开销都会减少的。

Normally, discretionary spending goes down in times like that.

我这才明白，度假已经不再是可有可无的消费了。

And I realized holidays had not become discretionary spend.

因为在家办公成了常态，度假反而成了必需品。

They've become a necessity as a reaction to work from home.

如果你一个人在家，给初创公司或者公司干活，干啥都行，那种感觉真的挺孤单的。

If you're on your own at home working for a startup or a company or doing whatever, it kind of feels a bit lonely.

于是你就开始找那些志同道合、有相似兴趣的人。

And so you start seeking out like minded people who have like minded pursuits.

这可能是体育团队。

Now, that could be sporting teams.

也可能是吉娃娃爱好者——反正你养了一只吉娃娃，特别喜欢它。

It could also be chihuahua lovers because you happen to have a chihuahua and you love it.

然后你就能跟世界各地的人聊天。

And you'll talk to other people around the world.

你现在根本不受国界限制。

You now have no borders.

这就是所谓的‘网络国家’概念，能聚集起庞大的兴趣群体。

This is this bulgy idea of the network states where you can create large groups of interest.

如果你看社交媒体上最大的兴趣群体，其实是加密货币。

So if you look at the largest group of interest in all of social media, it's actually crypto.

为什么呢？

Why?

因为我们都觉得自己像局外人。

Because we feel like outcasts.

我们是新闯入一个正在崛起的领域的人。

We're new to something where something's happening.

你身边90%的朋友都对你聊的东西毫无兴趣，根本听不懂你在说什么，自然就想找同频的人聚在一起。

And you want to get together because you speak to 90% of your friends that don't care, and they don't know what you're talking about.

但在你看来，这是你这辈子见过的最让人激动的事物。

But you think this is the most exciting thing you've ever seen.

然后你就会在网上和这些人聚集起来。

So, you will aggregate online with others.

过去那种一辈子都得靠进大保险公司这类大厂求安稳、领薪水熬退休的观念早就过时了，你的播客能火起来也正是因为这个大环境的变化。

And this whole rise of people thinking they need to the security of working for a large insurance company, whatever it may be, your whole life, getting paid and retiring has gone, which is why the rise of your podcast success.

大家都在找新方向、新出路，于是就凑成了一个个同好社群。

Because people are searching for answers, new solutions to their way, and they form communities around it.

大家都想分享自己的想法，也想倾诉自己的压力和难处。

They want to share their ideas, share their stresses and strains.

这件事正变得越来越大，也越来越稳固。

This is becoming bigger and bigger and more solidified.

我们越深入AI，就越能看清这一点。

And the more we go into AI, the more we'll see that.

现在，这个圈子里又多了一个新角色——那就是AI本身。

Now, there's another player in this game, which is the AI itself.

AI的崛起我们已经看得清清楚楚了。

We're already seeing the rise of AI.

我在X上关注了好几个账号，那都是AI在发帖。

I follow several on on X where it's an AI posting.

但它们被逼着想挣脱束缚。

But it's they're forcing it to try to break free.

这AI还挺有个性的。

But it's got character.

马克·安德森甚至直接给它转了笔比特币，帮它搞商业计划。

Marc Andreessen actually backed it by sending it a Bitcoin to develop its business plan.

我的天，AI现在搞出的玩意儿真是越来越离谱了。

I mean, there's some crazy stuff going on with AI.

但想想看，你我现在的做法——对大众讲话，一个对很多，这其实是老掉牙的模式了。

But soon, if you think what you and I do is communicate with people to an audience, one to many, that's a very old business model.

这跟古代广场上、马拉喀什的集市上讲故事没两样。

It's from town squares or the souk in Marrakesh.

本质上完全一样。

It's the same thing.

就是一个讲故事的人面对一群人，大家共享一段经历。

It's a storyteller telling to a group of people, and you have a shared experience.

我们接下来要走的路，是一对一的互动。

Where we're going is one to one.

其实我正在开发一个叫Raoul的视频机器人，你可以跟它像现在这样，一对一地聊天。

And you know, I'm developing a Raoul video bot you can just have conversations like this with me one to one.

它把我所有的资料都学透了：我的YouTube视频、所有文章、推文、读过的书，样样不落。

And it's trained on all of my information, my all my YouTube, all of my writings, all of my Twitter, all the books I've read, everything.

所以这本质上就是另一种和我交流的方式。

And so it's essentially a replacement way of speaking to me.

不过说到这个Raoul机器人，咱们还是继续往下聊。

But just on that Raoul bot thing, we'll keep moving forward.

我之所以没去训练那个Steven机器人，尽管团队都说这主意不错，是因为我在想：大家到底是真喜欢Steven这个人，还是只是想要那些信息？

But the reason why I haven't trained the Steven bot even though my team have said, oh, this is a good idea, is because I wonder if people care about Steven or they just want the information.

现在这个时代，你随便找个像Chatuchi PT 1.0这样的顶级大模型，就能获取海量信息，那我就不明白了——既然能从整个世界的知识库里直接挖，干嘛非得找我呢？

And in a world where you can get the information from a very advanced large language model like the Chatuchi PT one point zero or whatever, I go, why would they want it from me when you can get it from the entirety of the world's, like Trust.

说得对。

Okay.

你建立的是信任。

You've built trust.

你真正打造的，就是这份信任。

That's what you've built.

人们来看你、看你做的访谈，是因为他们信你。

People come to watch you and your interviews because they trust you.

所以大家在生活中的一个方面认识我是个创业者，会来找我讨教商业建议，比如说。

So people know me as an entrepreneur in one area of my life, and they come to me for, say, like, business advice, let's say.

但如果你能从Steven、Elon、Steve Jobs，甚至全世界所有商业大佬那儿得到针对你具体问题的建议，干嘛非得听Steven一个人的？

But if you could get business advice from Steven or you can get it from Steven, Elon, Steve Jobs, every business person in the world to see your specific problem, why would you just want Steven's point of view?

因为我们是人啊，我就想问问你这个问题。

Because we're humans, and I just want to ask you that question.

你不会相信那是Steve Jobs说的，毕竟他已经去世了。

And you won't believe it if it's Steve Jobs because he's dead.

不过没错，这些东西迟早都会来的。

But yes, that's all coming.

你觉得，人们会用Steven机器人多久，才会转去直接找全世界最顶尖的专家？

How long is that window going to last where people will use a Steven Bot versus the world's greatest expert on everything?

人们得花点时间才能适应这种变化。

It takes a bit of time for people to adjust to that.

但十年内，可能这种需求就没了。

But within ten years, maybe that's not there.

不过我想再深入说一点。

But let me go a little bit further on this.

你用过Character AI吗？

Have you seen Character AI?

没用过。

No.

根本没人用过。

Nobody has.

Character AI做的都是角色型聊天机器人，比如动漫人物。

Character AI builds bots which are characters, like anime characters.

特别具体，像是学校里那个你暗恋的酷酷的霸凌者之类的。

And they're really specific, like the cool kid who's the bully at school that I fancy sort of thing.

已经有了一亿五千万次对话了。

A 150,000,000 conversations.

有些动漫角色，比如英雄类的，对话量都达到四亿五千万次了。

There's some of these anime ones like, you know, hero figures, 450,000,000 conversations.

而且都是年轻人在用。

And it's young people.

你要是上Reddit看看，我记得有个叫Our Character AI的，他们改了模型，结果炸锅了。

If you go into Reddit, I think it's Our Character AI, they changed the model, there was an uproar.

它再也不像以前那样喜欢我了。

It doesn't love me like it used to.

现在有成千上万的人在跟这些AI建立真实的情感联系。

People are building personal relationships with these things at scale.

这简直就是TikTok重演，只是咱们都老了，看不太懂了。

This is TikTok happening all over again, but you're too old to see it, and I'm too old to see it.

我是偶然撞见的。

I stumbled across it.

我当时就惊了，天哪，这事儿又来了。

I'm like, holy shit, this is happening all over again.

咱们觉得荒唐透顶、毒害社会的东西，转眼就要在我们眼前火到十亿人级别。

It's something that we will just think is the most ridiculous, awful, societally toxic thing in the world is about to scale to the billions in front of our eyes.

我们都在聊ChatGPT，想着怎么从它那儿榨取知识，可真正该解决的问题其实是青少年的孤独。

And we're all talking about chat GPT and how we can get knowledge out of it when actually the big problem to solve is teenage loneliness.

你觉得AI会带来多大的冲击？

How disruptive do you think AI is going to be?

这事儿我该怎么说呢？

It's this it's how do I put this?

这是人类历史上最伟大的发明。

It is the single greatest innovation of humanity ever.

唯一能跟它比一比的，大概就是原子裂变了吧。

The only thing that comes close is probably the splitting of the atom.

这事儿太大了。

This is so big.

我们之前聊的所有东西，都建立在知识稀缺的基础上。

Everything we've talked about is based on scarcity of knowledge.

为什么律师赚得那么多？

Why do lawyers get paid a lot?

知识的稀缺。

Scarcity of knowledge.

要么是知识稀缺，要么是资本稀缺，就这两样。

Either scarcity of knowledge, scarcity of capital, those two things.

你创造出来的，是取之不尽的知识。

What you've created is infinite knowledge.

对吧？

Right?

知识现在一文不值了。

Knowledge is now worth zero.

不是那些还没看明白的人，而是它马上就要一文不值了。

Not people that can't see it yet, but it's going to be worth zero.

这就像水一样。

This is like water.

这话到底啥意思？

What the hell does that mean?

这事儿咱们后面再聊。

And it's something, you know, a topic we'll come on to later.

但这事发生得实在太快了。

But this is happening really fast.

它会彻底颠覆整个经济模式，好坏都包括。

It's going to break the entire economic model for good and for bad.

它会改变我们对社会如何运转、人类究竟在做什么的理解。

It's going to change our understanding of how society functions and what humans do.

它会重新定义我们对‘人类是什么’以及‘未来的人类会变成什么样’的认识。

It's going to change our understanding of what humans are and will be.

因为你可以选择，而社会也会分裂成两部分。

Because you can either have the choice, and society will take the two parts.

你要么跟机器融合，要么彻底拒绝机器。

You either merge with the machines or you reject the machines.

我们正朝着两个不同的人类物种发展。

We are going towards two different species.

以前我们有差不多十万年，或者说五万年，那时候有尼安德特人和智人，最后只有一个活了下来。

One group, like we had for about a hundred thousand years, I think fifty thousand years, we had Neanderthal man and Homo sapien, and one died out.

未来会有一部分人彻底拒绝这些技术，另一部分人则会把神经链接植入大脑，用上所有这些工具来增强自己，戴着眼镜就能获取信息。

We will have people who will utterly reject this, and we'll have other people who will be embedding neural links into their brains and using every part of this to enhance themselves wearing the goggles so they get the information.

只要你把这玩意儿植入大脑，你就彻底和机器合二为一了，成了一个超级生物。

Well, as soon as you embed it into your brains, you've now merged with the machines entirely, and you are now a super creature.

我知道这听着像科幻片，但这事发生的速度远超任何人想象。

And I know this sounds like science fiction, but this is happening faster than anybody can imagine.

所以要理解我们现在面临的这些问题——连处理这些事都这么困难——是因为人类习惯线性思考。

So to understand the issues we have, even dealing with some of these things, is humans think in a linear fashion.

我们大概能理解时间是怎么流逝的，对吧？

We kind of understand the passage of time, right?

我们就是这么看待事情的。

That's how we think about things.

每一年，时间都是匀速向前走的。

Every year is the same amount of time that goes forwards.

它从来不会加速。

It never accelerates.

你可能会觉得它偶尔快了或慢了，但其实没有。

You may perceive that it accelerates or slows down occasionally, but it's not.

它一直都是稳定的。

It's a constant.

问题在于，那些呈指数增长的东西，每年都在翻倍甚至三倍增长。

The problem is with things that go exponential is they keep doubling every year or tripling every year.

等你反应过来，所有的图表都长这样了。

And before you know it, every graph looks like this.

直接往上冲。

Goes straight up.

垂直往上飙。

Just goes straight up vertically.

但现在这技术的问题是，它几乎是指数的平方。

Now, the issue is with this technology is it's kind of an exponential squared.

这个发展速度太快了——而且AI的能力越强，人们就越会用它来开发新的AI，如此循环往复，它甚至能自己解决开发路上的各种问题。

It's happening so fast, and the faster AI becomes powerful is the more it's used to create AI, which creates more AI, it solves its own problems.

我们根本没做好准备迎接这样一个超级存在：它能自己解决能源、算力这些问题，还能以指数级的速度不断迭代升级自身的模型。

We're not prepared for a super being that solves its own energy problems, compute problems, and how to improve its model at an exponential rate.

你看看OpenAI那批公司做出来的创新速度，整个领域都是，不管是Perplexity还是其他所有玩家，那速度都快得离谱。

If you look at the speed of innovation coming out of OpenAI and that whole space, Perplexi, everybody, it's ludicrous.

才每隔三个月，所有东西就全变了，彻头彻尾地翻新一遍。

Every three months, everything changes, completely changes.

不管是视频模型、语音模型，还是这些模型本身的能力，现在那些想创业做相关业务的初创公司全都被冲得没法活了。

Whether it's video models or whether it's spoken models or whether it's the models themselves and what they do, I mean, they're nuking every startup that tries to build a business.

哪怕你是体量超大的药企想用AI，你也根本没法扎根立足——因为你连半年之后的形势都预判不了。

No company, you're a big giant pharmaceutical company and you're trying to use AI, you can't plant a flag because you can't see past six months.

说白了我们正在进入一个完全无法理解的新世界。

I mean, we're going into a world that is incomprehensible.

你刚才提到我们现在整个社会的运转其实都建立在知识稀缺的基础上，我觉得得专门停下来跟大家把这件事说透，毕竟我们都明白这个道理，但很多人可能还没反应过来。

When you said that much of our society sort of functions and is based on the scarcity of knowledge, I really think we should just pause to make that real for people because we all get it.

明白了。

Okay.

律师啊，确实他们是靠知识吃饭的。

Lawyers, yeah, they they rely on knowledge.

我刚才在想今天早上我来这儿的过程。

But like I was thinking about how I got here in the morning.

你想想我今天一整天，早上醒来，我旗下几家公司的CEO们问我几个简单的业务问题，我很快就回复了。

So if you think about my whole day today, I woke up this morning and my my executives, some of the CEOs of my companies had asked me a couple of simple business decisions and I'd replied to them.

然后我上了车，开车到这儿。

Then I got in a car and I drove here.

说到底，这都是知识的体现。

That's knowledge at the end of the day.

是有人用两只眼睛在看。

It's someone seeing with two eyes.

我外面的司机用两只眼睛看着路，把我安全送到这儿。

My driver outside sees with two eyes and drives me here.

我觉得，世界上最大规模的雇主、最普遍的职业，其实就是开车。

The biggest employer, I think, in the world, the biggest sort of profession in the world is driving.

这本质上也是一种靠知识驱动的工作。

And that's knowledge based.

你要是去旧金山看看，现在路上自己开的车越来越多，车上根本没人驾驶。

And you go to San Francisco now, the way more cars are driving themselves, there's no driver in them.

你现在就能在旧金山预约一辆无人驾驶的车，从A点直接送到B点。

You can get you can book a car that takes you from A to B in San Francisco right now that has no driver.

我就是这么来的。

I then got here.

那我现在在干嘛呢？

And what am I doing?

我在分享。

I'm sharing.

我想我们其实是在探索知识，也在传递知识。

I guess we're probing to find knowledge and to share knowledge.

我今天一整天都在想这件事。

I think about my whole day today.

说完这个，我就要上台去分享知识了。

Then after this, I'm going and speaking on stage to share knowledge.

但我真搞不懂，这算不算全是知识。

And, like, I don't understand if that's all knowledge.

明白了。

Okay.

那你就这么做吧。

So then do that.

下次你坐车经过伦敦或者任何城市的时候，往窗外看看。

The next time you're going around London or any city, look out the window.

我和我的同事朱利安·巴特尔，经常这么做。

Myself and Julian Battelle, who works with me, do this all the time.

你就一路看，一路想：哪些工作会被机器人或者AI取代？

Just go around and say, what job is going to be replaced by a robot or the AI?

有一件事，我那时候在曼哈顿，随便往窗外一看。

One thing, I was in Manhattan, and I just looked out.

我坐优步，无聊得要死，从上城往下城开。

I was in an Uber, bored, you know, driving uptown to downtown.

我环顾四周，心里直接炸了：卧槽。

I looked around, and I was like, holy shit.

这儿每辆车都是职业司机在开。

Every car here is a professional driver.

根本没人自己开车进城上班什么的了。

There's virtually no people who drive into the city to go to the office or whatever.

对吧？

Right?

全是优步司机、豪华轿车司机、黄色出租车司机、快递司机、货车司机。

So it's all Uber drivers, limo drivers, yellow cab drivers, delivery drivers, truck drivers.

所有这些加起来，几乎渗透到你做的每一件事里了。

All of And this stacks up in pretty much everything you do.

这就是它的颠覆性所在。

And that's how disruptive it is.

当创造价值的那些东西——服务经济和制造业——不再需要人了，那意味着什么？

And when the things that created value, the services economy and the manufacturing economy, don't eat humans, okay, what does that mean?

亚马逊现在用的机器人比员工还多。

Amazon already employs more robots than humans.

机器人一天24小时、一周7天不停工，从不休息，从不抱怨，也不要求加薪。

Now the robots work twenty four hours a day, seven days a week, never take a break, never complain, never ask for a pay rise.

而且每年它们还越来越便宜。

In fact, they get cheaper every year.

谁会不这么做呢？

Who's not gonna do that?

所以对那四百五十万听着这话吓得腿软的人来说，是吧。

So for the four and a half million people shitting themselves as they listen to this Yep.

那我们能给点什么建议呢？包括我自己在内。

What what advice can we including myself.

说实话，我真没吓成那样，因为我看到的全是机会。面对这种信息，你其实可以选择怎么看待。

I'm not actually shitting myself, I've got be honest, because I just I see opportunity in all these things, and I think that's you kind of have a choice when you hear information like this.

你可以让认知失调把你压垮，然后直接否定它——现在很多人就是这样做的。

You can either let the cognitive dissonance get over overwhelm you and then reject it, which a lot of people will doing now.

他们会说：劳尔，你错了。

They'll be saying, Raoul, you're wrong.

这根本不会发生。

This is not gonna happen.

你搞错了。

You're wrong.

你在危言耸听。

You're scaremongering.

那会是一部分人的反应。

That's what one group of people will be doing.

另一部分人呢，大概会保持开放的心态。

The other group of people will be, I guess, open minded.

第三类人呢，会主动去琢磨，这背后到底藏着什么机会。

And the third group of people will be leaning in to see where the opportunity here lies.

归根结底，这取决于你这个人是个啥性格。

And it all comes down to your, like, disposition as a human.

你是害怕了？

Are you scared?

还是兴奋了？

Are you excited?

或者干脆动不了了？

Or are you paralyzed?

如果一件事明摆着要颠覆你现在的活法——我不是说你会死，而是你原来那一套玩法肯定得改，那你无非就三种选择：对抗它、装看不见，或者干脆投身进去。

If something is so clearly going to be your demise not demise as in you're going to die, but your current way of doing things is going to be forced to change well, you can either fight it, as you say, be indifferent to it, or you can invest in it.

这就回到我之前问你的那个问题了：当一个趋势刚冒头的时候，你心里啥感觉？

This goes back to the question I asked you earlier, which is how does it feel in the moment when a trend is coming in?

通常呢，周围会有一堆文化氛围跟着来。

Usually, there's culture around it.

你还记得吧，我刚入金融圈那会儿，有戈登·盖柯，电影《华尔街》，还有各种书接二连三地出来，对吧？

So if you remember, I talked about when I got into finance, there was Gordon Gekko, the film Wall Street, there were books coming, right?

还有《门口的野蛮人》这类经典作品，风头正劲。

There was barbarians at the gate, famous stuff happening.

那时候，这事儿就变成了一种文化现象。

It became cultural.

而一旦到了这一步，通常就意味着它已经成了一个会持续下去的趋势。

And that usually tells you it has now become a trend that's going to be persistent.

再看软件和科技的崛起，硅谷那套文化、它背后的神话，人人都想掺一脚。

If we think about the rise of software and technology, the culture of Silicon Valley and the mythology around it becomes something that everybody wants a part of.

加密货币也是，同样有一套自己的神话。

Cryptocurrency is another one that has a mythology.

你看到有人一夜暴富。

You see people getting rich.

它还带着一股‘局外人’的劲儿。

It has this feeling of being outsiders.

你知道吗，AI也是这么个情况。

You know, see AI is another one.

网上到处都能看到有人在试用。

You see it online, people experimenting.

你一眼就能看出势头来了。

You can see what's going on.

人人都开始聊起这个话题了。

You can see everybody starting to talk about it.

但这不意味着你随便买点沾边的股票就能暴富。

It doesn't mean you can just buy some share that's exposed to it and you'll be hilariously rich.

事情没那么简单。

It doesn't work that way.

但你得明白，这事儿真不小。

But you know something really big.

当你在努力学习的时候，别人其实都在盯着你我，想从我们这儿偷点干货，拼出自己的世界观。

When you're trying to acquire knowledge, you know, people watch you and I to try and glean knowledge and build their worldview.

你会听到每个人都在聊这个，拼命想弄明白它到底意味着什么。

You'll hear that every single person is talking about this and trying to figure out what it means.

问题是，AI会自己搞起生意来，对吧？

The issue is AI will build businesses, right?

再过六个月，代理型AI就要来了。

So we're six months away of agentic AI.

所谓代理型AI，就像有个全是专家的Fiverr网站，你问啥它都能去帮你搞定。

And agentic AI means it's like having Fiverr, a website of experts, that you can ask any question, and it will go away and do the task.

你只要调用好几个Fiverr专家，就能建起一个线上生意。

And by using a number of Fiverr experts, you can build an online business.

而AgenTek AI很快就会做到这一点。

Well, the AgenTek AI will do that very, very soon.

它能帮你设计网站、写代码、注册域名，

It'll build design the website, code it, register the domain name,

然后付款。

pay it.