伊朗战争专家：我模拟伊朗战争20年，接下来会发生什么

如果你能做到，那我们就没平台去宣传他们了。

If you can then we don't have the platforms to plaster them.

你看，这些基本上就是我们的陆基航空母舰。

You see, these are our basically ground based aircraft carriers.

我以为他们攻击沙特阿拉伯，比如，是为了让沙特阿拉伯给特朗普打电话，说：停下，求你了。

I thought they were they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for example, because that will make Saudi Arabia call Trump and say, listen, stop, please.

我们的旅游业正在流失。

We're losing our tourism.

我们正在关闭我们的机场。

We're we're shutting our airports.

他们确实想威胁旅游业，打击经济节点。

Well, they do wanna they are threatening the tourism, hitting the economic nodes.

他们正在打击酒店。

They're hitting hotels.

他们正在打击机场。

They're hitting the airports.

他们试图通过威胁旅游业来达到目的，而旅游业占这些国家GDP的5%到10%不等。

What they are trying to do is by threatening tourism, which varies from 5% to 10% of the GDP of these countries.

这里涉及的金额绝非小数目。

This is not trivial amounts here.

他们基本上是在试图在这些国家和美国之间制造裂痕。

They're basically trying to drive wedges between these countries and America.

而目前的美国，我看不出国会有什么动作。

And America right now, I don't see any movement through Congress.

那笔用于补偿该地区旅游业损失的一千亿美元资金去哪儿了？

Where is this $100,000,000,000 going to the region to make up for their lost tourism?

我不记得上周国会通过了这样的法案。

I I don't remember seeing that bill come through Congress last week.

所以我只是稍微幽默地指出，这些国家现在正遭受不小的损失，而旅游业可能在一段时间内都不会恢复。

So I'm just putting it a little humorously to point out, these countries are losing a fair bit right now, and that tourism may not come back for a while.

我有一些朋友已经搬走了。

I've got friends that are that have moved.

是的。

Yep.

我有一些朋友，其中一个原本打算离开，现在就住在我开普敦的家里，他已经待了五年。

I've got friends that one of my friends was thinking about leaving, is now in my house in Cape Town, and he's been there for five years.

他要走了，打算搬去美国。

He's leaving, and he's gonna move to America.

我有太多朋友都给你打过电话了。

I've got so many friends that have called you.

而且想象一下，我们这里有50万美国公民，而美国国务院正在CNN上呼吁。

And and imagine that we have 500,000 American citizens here, and we have the State Department on CNN.

请拨打这个号码。

Call this number.

我们会帮助你们撤离。

We'll help you escape.

就连英国的媒体也都注意到了这一点。

It's got even the media in The UK, you see it.

就像他们在播放一样，BBC正在展示英国公民撤离的场景，他们在机场受到欢迎，记者们举着话筒，所以这

It's like it's they're showing, like the BBC is showing, like, evacuations of UK citizens as they're being greeted in the airport, putting microphones So this

这给这里带来了很大压力。

is putting a lot of pressure here.

还有一件不太为人所知的事情，那就是各国领导人愿意支持美国和以色列的意愿，与他们本国公众的态度之间存在巨大差距。

And there's something else that's not widely known, which is there's a big gap between what the leaders of the countries want willing to support The US and Israel and their publics.

你看，这个针对伊朗建立的联盟，在公众中并没有得到广泛认可。

You see, this coalition that's been built against Iran here is not clearly going down well with publics.

这些公众可能并不喜欢伊朗，他们可能是逊尼派，而伊朗是什叶派，但他们并不想参与以色列的扩张计划——即以色列要不断征服更多领土等等。

These are publics, they may not like Iran, they may be Sunni and Iran Shia, But they don't want to be part of an Israeli expansion plan where Israel's going to conquer more and more territory and so forth.

因此，这正是这一局势的软肋所在。

And so this is this is this is where the soft underbelly here of this.

这不仅仅是关于旅游业的问题。

This isn't just about the tourism.

那只是短期的。

That's the short term.

从长远来看，是自下而上的压力。

The longer term is bottom up pressure.

萨达特是上世纪七十年代埃及的领导人。

Sadat, he was a leader of Egypt in the nineteen seventies.

他与以色列达成了协议。

He cut a deal with Israel.

这被称为《戴维营协议》，以土地换和平。

It's called the Camp David Accords, peace for land.

但协议条件非常有利。

There was but it was very favorable.

萨达特这么做之后，1981年，在一次军事阅兵式上，他自己的警卫手持武器走上前来，将他当场射杀。

Well, after Sadat did that, the president of Egypt, in 1981, in a military parade, his own security guards at the military parade marched with their guns, came up to his place, and they shot him dead.

所以你明白，这里才是现实世界。

So you don't this is the real world here.

这对这些领导人来说极其危险。

So this is very, very dangerous for these leaders.

现在，这是第二阶段。

Now, that's stage two.

那么，如果我们决定进行一次有限的地面部署，会发生什么？

Now, what happens if we decide to have one of these limited ground deployments here?

毕竟，我们仍然不知道这些物资在哪里。

Because after all, we still don't know where this material is.

那是什么意思？

What does that mean?

所以，对于任何不了解这场战争的人来说，地面部署意味着什么？

So, for anyone that doesn't know anything about the war, what does ground deployment mean?

因为昨天我在飞机上看到特朗普被问到这个问题，他并没有否认这件事会发生。

Because I I saw Trump being asked about this on the plane yesterday, and he didn't seem to deny it was gonna happen.

这意味着你试图控制一小片区域，比如福尔多周围或你在六月轰炸的核设施区域，然后派遣第82空降师去控制该区域。

It means you try to control a limited amount of space, say, the space around Fordow or the the nuclear facility that you bombed in June, And you would send the, say, eighty second Airborne in to control the space

这是什么？

What's this?

我不知道这些东西到底是什么

I don't know what any of this stuff

哦，我明白了。

Oh, I see.

第八十二空降师是一支专门配备用于进入敌对区域、空降并控制如机场等区域的部队。

So eighty second Airborne is a division that we have that's especially equipped to go into hostile area and land and control, say, airports, control space.

想象一下控制LAX机场的所有出入口。

Think about controlling all the sides of LAX.

所以如果你想控制LAX，就派第八十二空降师进去。

So if you want to control LAX, you bring in the eighty second airborne.

他们会派出五千名男女士兵——现在不只是男性了，他们会进驻并控制LAX这片区域。

They will have 5,000 men and women, not just guys now, and they will come in and they will control that space LAX.

但他们不会只待一天，甚至不会只待一周。

But they will also be doing this probably not for a day, not for even a week.

他们必须花上数周时间搜寻那种材料，因为我们根本不知道它在哪里。

They're going to have to spend weeks and weeks to search for that material because we don't know where it is.

而且所有东西都深埋地下，很多入口已经被炸毁了。

And it's all deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has been, the the entrances have been blown up.

这意味着需要长期驻扎在那里。

So this means this means long term presence there.

你或许也可以占领一些油田，以切断该政权的部分资金来源。

You might also take some of the oil fields to cut off some of the money here for the for the regime.

这本书就是在这个时候派上用场的。

That is where that book comes in.

你认为美国很可能会派地面部队，也就是美国士兵进入伊朗吗？

Do you think that it's likely that America will put boots on the ground, American soldiers in Iran?

我认为至少有五成概率，甚至可能立即发生。

I think it's at least fifty fifty, if not immediately.

人们总期待冲突会持续升级。

So people keep expecting the escalation to be continuous.

但当出现暂停时，比如六月到二月之间的停顿，他们就会以为事情结束了。

And then when there's a pause, as there was between June and February, they think, oh, it's over.

我现在要去担心别的事情了。

I'm gonna go now worry about something else.

相信我，还有很多其他值得担心的事情。

And then believe me, there's plenty else to worry about.

所以我们有明尼阿波利斯。

So we got Minneapolis.

即使有暴力事件，我们这里也有很多值得担心的事。

We got plenty to worry about here, even with violence.

但escalation并不是这样运作的。

But that's not how escalation operates.

escalation可能具有棘轮效应，中间间隔数月看似和平，然后又突然卷土重来，让你陷入这种escalation的惯性中。

Escalation can have a ratchet effect that has that's spaced out by months of what seems like peace, only to come right back and you're stuck in that escalation momentum.

这正是我们所看到的。

Which is what we've seen.

这正是我们所看到的。

Which is exactly what we've seen.

我告诉你的原因是我们不知道那些核材料在哪里。

And for the reason I'm telling you, we don't know where that nuclear material is.

这一直是关键问题。

That has been the $64,000

这种完全依赖空中力量的策略，其弱点就在于此，不仅仅是

weakness in this entire idea of using air power, not just in

过去十天，甚至追溯到六月。

the last ten days, going back to June.

这不仅仅是关于政权更迭，更是关于你如何把那些核材料弄出来。

It's not just even about the regime change, it's about how are you going to get that nuclear nuclear material out.

我们曾经和奥巴马达成过一项协议。

We had a deal, this deal with Obama.

特朗普不喜欢这项协议。

Trump did not like it.

但这项协议当时是有效的，伊朗几乎清除了所有。

But with that deal, that held, and Iran took out almost all.

几乎只剩下一点点了。

Virtually, just only a tiny bit was left.

不够造一颗炸弹。

Not enough for a bomb.

全部运出了国外。

All out of the country.

我们一直在观察。

And we watched it.

我们一直在监控。

We monitored it.

我们用了20台47型摄像头来监控此事。

We had 20 fourseven cameras to monitor this.

我们还派了现场人员进行检查以监控此事。

We had human on-site inspections to monitor this.

2018年，特朗普直接撕毁了协议，单方面退出了。

2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked away unilaterally.

从那时起，伊朗就全力加速提升其浓缩铀的纯度。

And from that point on, it's been pedaled to the metal by Iran in upgrading that enriched uranium.

这就是你最终获得足以制造16枚炸弹的材料的原因。

And that's how you got to that material that would be enough for the 16bombs.

而目前，我们不知道这些材料在哪里。

And right now, we don't know where that is.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

第一阶段是

Stage one is

好的。

Okay.

第一阶段，你正步入升级的陷阱。

Stage one, you are beginning the escalation trap.

在这种情况下，这是一个智能炸弹陷阱，但由于使用的是智能炸弹，你几乎能实现完美的战术成功。

In this case, it's a smart bomb trap, but it because it's with smart bombs, where you have tactical success near perfect.

称之为100%，因为确实如此。

Call it 100%, because it really is.

但这并不意味着你取得了战略上的成功。

But that doesn't mean you have strategic success.

战术上的成功加上战略上的失败。

Tactical success plus strategic failure.

随着时间推移，这种战略上的失败会不断压着你，因为敌人仍然拥有你最初想要夺取的东西。

Then that strategic failure weighs on you over time because the enemy still got the thing that you wanted to get in the first place.

现在你进入第二阶段，即政权更迭。

Now you do stage two, which is regime change.

毕竟，你已经打击了目标。

Because after all, you've already hit the targets.

你可以让废墟跳起来，但这就是为什么我们过去十天没有轰炸他们的原因。

You can make the rubble bounce, but what more that's why we didn't bomb them in the last ten days.

我们可能会回去再轰炸费尔多斯一些，好吧，但我们已经炸过那里了。

We might go back and bomb Ferdows some more, okay, but we already bombed it.

所以我们还在关注这个泡沫。

So so there's more we're watching the bubble.

但现在我们进入了第二阶段，因为你的选择还有什么？

But now we're at stage two because what are your options?

另一个唯一的选择是，干脆推翻这个政权，因为一旦政权更替，我会掌控局面，而下一个政权会把我们需要的物资交出来。

The only other option is, well, let me get rid of the regime because then the regime, I will control, and the next regime will just give us the material.

但现在这招不管用了。

That's not working now.

你今天听到，特朗普正在左右为难，不知该如何表态。

And you hear today, Trump is dancing trying to figure out what to say.

他不想说战争已经结束。

He doesn't want to say the war's over.

好吧。

Okay.

他也不想说战争还在继续。

He doesn't want to say the war's going on.

但关键是，我们甚至都不清楚他为何还要继续这场战争了。

But the bottom line is we don't even he won't even be clear about why we're fighting the war anymore.

我跟你说，这确实是个大问题。

I'm And telling you, there's a real problem.

核材料仍然在那里，随着时间推移，仍可以被制造成那16枚炸弹。

The nuclear material is still there, and it can still be fashioned into those 16 bombs over time.

所以这就导致了横向扩展，因为他们现在真的、真的在全力推进，因为这场战争已经变成了一场持久战。

So this is where then you get this horizontal where now they've really, really working on this, because now it's a long war.

他们开始攻击邻国。

They start attacking their neighbors.

并试图让后果持续数月之久。

And try to make it a the consequences go on for months.

所以你想想，你的朋友们到底什么时候才能真正回去？

So just imagine, when are your friends exactly gonna move back?

假设明天战争就结束了。

So let's say the war is over tomorrow.

他们明天就搬回去吗？

Are they moving back tomorrow?

不。

No.

你上一次开始计划去迪拜度假是什么时候？

And when was the last time have you started to plan for your next vacation in Dubai?

我去过迪拜。

I've been to Dubai.

我本来计划下个月去那里，但已经取消了。

I was I was planning speaking there in month's time, but it's been canceled already.

那就先想想这件事吧。

Well, just Just start to think about that.

你知道吗，像无人机袭击这样的小事可能会突然从天而降。

And, you know, a minor thing like a drone attack could suddenly come out of nowhere.

你知道吗？

Do know?

你甚至都不觉得是这样。

You're not even you think it's Yeah.

我只是想指出，现在这个世界已经变了，以前这还是个奢侈品市场。

I'm just trying to point out that this is this is the world now that a lot of people this was a luxury market.

这里曾经是富豪名人的游乐场。

This was the playground of the rich and famous here.

现在情况真的在改变，也许一两年后会恢复，但9·11事件后，航空旅行花了两年时间才恢复过来。

This is really now changing, and it may come back a year or two from now, but it took two years for air travel to come back after 09:11.

好好想想吧。

Just think about that.

太疯狂了。

Crazy.

现在我们还没进入第三阶段，而这正好涉及你女朋友的观点。

This Now, we haven't gotten to stage three yet, which gets to your girlfriend's point.

我们怎么从第二阶段过渡到第三阶段？

How do we move from stage two to stage three?

哦，那是因为你仍然不知道核材料在哪里。

Oh, well, because you still don't know where the nuclear material is.

是的。

Mhmm.

我们不必这周就进入第三阶段。

And we don't have to move to stage beyond, to stage three this week.

我们可以一个月后，或者六个月后再做。

We could do it a month from now, six months from now.

问题是，我们现在建立了一套更激进的领导层和更激进的体制。

The problem is we've now put in place a much more aggressive leadership, much more aggressive regime.

我们取消了一些可能原本对核武器起到约束作用的机制，虽然我们无法确定。

We've taken away some of the, what may have been guardrails, we can't say for sure, for the nuclear weapon.

这个新的体制更有可能。

This this new regime, much more likely.

而且我们给了他们所有发展核弹的动机。

And we've given them every incentive to develop the nuclear bomb.

我们正在杀死他们。

We're killing them.

那么他们的动机到底是什么？

So what exactly is their incentive?

他们生存的最佳方式就是拥有核武器。

Their best way to survive is to have a nuclear weapon.

你可能会说，我们会杀死他们。

And you'll say, well, we're going to kill them.

但我们已经在杀死他们了。

Well, we're already killing them.

所以我们已经剥夺了他们不拥有核武器的动机。

So we've taken away their incentive not to have a nuclear weapon.

因此，随着每周过去，我们会开始担忧，不是因为我们有出色的情报，也不是因为我们有人力资源，而是恰恰相反。

So we will start to worry as each week goes by, not because we have great intel, not because our human, it's because of the opposite.

我们不再拥有像奥巴马协议时期那样精确的情报，无法确认核计划已被冻结。

We don't have the exquisite intelligence we had with the Obama deal to know we had frozen the program.

现在我们最好的情况也不过是瑞士奶酪。

Now that we have Swiss cheese at best.

而在瑞士奶酪的孔洞中，我们将看到核开发的迹象。

And what we will see in the holes of the Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear development.

这会让我们担忧，因为核武器会带来什么后果？

And that will make us worry because what happens with a nuclear weapon?

它会不会落到真主党手里？

Is it going to go to Hezbollah?

真主党会不会帮着把它运到海法？

And is Hezbollah going to help put it in Haifa?

这些会怎样发展？

What's going to happen with these?

他们会把它交给胡塞武装吗？

Are they going to give it to the Houthis?

这些正是我们会面临的担忧，它们会迫使我们采取极端手段。

So these are the kind of worries we will have that will push us to the ground options.

而这一点，正是第三阶段，报复行动逼近本土。

And that, that is with stage three, the retaliation approaches the homeland.

这现实吗？

Is that realistic?

如果ISIS，记住，ISIS有三万到四万人，但它不是一个国家。

If ISIS, with its 30,000 to 40,000 remember, ISIS was not a state.

伊朗是一个拥有九千二百万人口的真正国家。

Iran is an actual state with 92,000,000 people.

所以，如果ISIS都能策划和煽动有组织的、受其启发的自杀式袭击和其他袭击，比如圣贝纳迪诺事件——稍微贴近我们自身一点，想想美国境内、巴黎发生的袭击，还记得那场大规模的巴黎恐袭吗？

So if ISIS can foment command directed, inspired suicide attacks and other attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind of bring it a little bit closer to home here, across The United States, Paris, remember the big Paris attack?

那么，为什么伊朗不会这么做呢？我的意思是，ISIS比伊朗弱得多。

So why exactly is Iran not if I mean, ISIS was a lot weaker than Iran.

你认为伊朗目前正在策划这类行动吗？

Do you think in Iran at the moment they're working on that?

他们在策划恐怖袭击吗？

They're working on a terrorist attack?

嗯，我认为我的工作表明，最有可能的情况是我们地面部队的介入。

Well, I don't I think that my work tells me that it's most likely to come with the presence of the ground forces by us.

这并不意味着是必要条件，但可能性最大。

Doesn't mean it's a necessary condition, but it's just most likely.

在1996年，俄罗斯在我们的帮助下，我们耍了个花招，暗杀了车臣领导人——俄罗斯车臣共和国的领导人杜达耶夫。

Russia in 'ninety six, with our help, we played a trick on him, assassinated the Chechen leader, it's a leader of its republic in Russia called Chechnya, Dudaiyiv.

当时车臣只有一百万人。

Only a million people.

而俄罗斯杀死了他。

And Russia killed the guy.

我们实际上有他被导弹击中的画面。

And we actually have pictures of him seeing the missile hitting him.

因为我们能把摄像头装在导弹的鼻锥里。

Because we can put the cameras right in the nose cone.

然后新领导人接任了。

Then the new guy took over.

他的名字叫博西耶夫。

His name was Bosiev.

他在三个月内发动了‘圣战行动’，不是下周，而是三个月后。

And he launched within three months, not the next week, Operation Jihad.

他的‘圣战行动’采用了更加残忍的战术。

And his Operation Jihad was much more vicious tactics.

把俄罗斯军队赶了出去。

Kicked the Russian forces.

俄罗斯是个大国。

Russia's a big country.

你知道，俄罗斯人口接近两亿，而这个小省份才一百万人。

You know, a 100, almost 200,000,000 people compared to this little province of a million.

三个月内就把俄国人赶了出去。

Kick the Russians out after three months.

发动了一系列自杀式袭击和大规模绑架行动。

Launches waves of suicide attacks, massive kidnappings here.

这真的持续了许多年。

This really went on for years and years.

所以当你问，他们是否在策划这件事？

So when you say, are they planning it?

我觉得这样说不太准确，史蒂文。

I don't think it's quite right, Steven.

他们并不是已经有了一个即将执行的详细计划。

It's not like they have the detailed plan they're about to execute.

他们有的是下一波可能的行动方案，我认为最有可能在第二阶段之后，也就是第三阶段出现。

They have the next wave of possibilities, which would come, I think most likely with stage two, so stage three.

因此，随着局势扩大，随着战争蔓延，它将走向全球化。

So as this is expanding, as the war expands, it will go global.

真的吗？

Really?

你已经能看到它在全球范围内的影响了，比如供应链，还有石油。

You are already seeing it global with the supply chain, and you're seeing it with the oil.

所以这已经在发生了。

So that's already happening.

所以伊朗今天对特朗普刚刚结束的新闻发布会的回应是：好吧，只要你们把美国人赶走，我们就允许海湾国家的油轮通行。

So what Iran said today, the response to Trump's press conference today that just literally happened before we came on is, okay, we will allow Gulf States, your oil tankers to come through if you kick the Americans out.

所以，赶走美国人，我们就放行。

So kick the Americans out and we'll let you pass.

如果不的话。

If you don't.

如果不，我们就用无人机。

If you don't, we got drones.

他们没明说，但大家都清楚他们有无人机。

So they didn't put that in there, but everybody knows they got drones.

再说一遍，如果你要向一个16岁的孩子解释这件事。

And again, for if you were explaining this to a 16 year old

是的。

Yep.

为了简单说明，有一条穿过水域的通道，许多油轮都经过这里。

Just to keep it super simple, there's this passageway across the water where a lot of the oil tankers go.

是的。

Yep.

这是霍尔木兹海峡。

It's Strait Of Hormuz.

霍尔木兹？

Hormuz?

是的。

Yep.

听起来油轮们拒绝通过他们自己的通道。

And it sounded like the tankers are refusing to go through their own.

哦，当然。

Oh, sure.

因为有一艘已经被击中了。

Because one has been hit.

但只要有一艘油轮被无人机击中就足够了。

But it only takes one to be hit with a drone.

只要一艘。

Only one.

因为那些驾驶油轮来这里的人，只是为了拿工资，而不是为了送命。

Because the people driving those tankers here, they're doing it for a paycheck, not a bullet.

他们并不真的想为这件事丧命。

They're not really wanting to die for this.

这并不是一个为了运油而奋斗的民族主义事业。

This isn't a nationalist cause to ship

解释一下为什么这关乎世界。

Explain the why it matters to the world.

如果石油无法通过霍尔木兹海峡，会发生什么？

If if oil doesn't go through this Strait Of Hormuz, what matter what happens?

是的。

Yeah.

我们可以从技术角度来讨论，但最重要的是，这将导致加油站油价上涨。

Well, we can talk about it in technical terms, but the big thing to say is this is what's going to increase the price of gas at the pump.

而且油价已经上涨了。

And it's already gone up.

当你切断石油供应时，会产生全球性影响。

When you cut the flow of the oil, it has global effects.

它不仅仅影响这个小区域。

It doesn't just affect this little region here.

它不仅仅影响这边的中国。

It doesn't just affect China over here.

它影响所有人。

It affects everybody.

这就是为什么欧洲人开始慌了。

And that's why the Europeans are starting to freak out.

因为每个政府都担心这个问题，我们一直在谈论可负担性。

Because this they are every government worries about we talk about affordability.

这种情况即将改变。

That's about to change.

这就是你所说的它如何改变国内政治的观点吗？

And is this your point about how it changes the politics at home?

因为人们确实如此。

Because people Yes.

有人今天去加油。

Someone goes to the pump today.

他们会问，为什么油价这么高？

They go, why is the oil higher?

没错。

That's right.

为什么我们会这样？我们刚刚经历了4.4%的失业率。

Why is the we just came we we now have 4.4% unemployment.

如果总统特朗普说一切都在好转，利率正在下降。

If we and and President Trump was trying to say, it's all getting better, the interest rates are going down.

但这一切都基于我们没有通货膨胀。

Well, that all predicated on us not having inflation.

你看，当石油产量减少时，通货膨胀就会上升，可负担性就会成为问题。

You see, when the oil is cut, the inflation goes up, the affordability becomes a problem.

这正是目前许多企业感到恐慌的原因，因为他们将失去生意。

That is what is panicking a lot of the businesses right now because they're going to lose business.

这是一个风险问题。

It's a problem of risk.

这不仅仅是关于破坏。

It's not just about the damage.

所以，仅仅几架这样的无人机就能对风险产生不成比例的影响。

So a little a few of these drones can have an inordinate effect on risk.

现在，我们再来看另一部分：我们发现，俄罗斯正在向伊朗提供目标定位情报，就像我们向乌克兰提供目标定位情报以打击俄罗斯境内目标一样。

Now, let's bring in another piece, which is Russia, we find out, is providing targeting intelligence to Iran, much the way we provide targeting intelligence to Ukraine to hit targets in Russia.

这意味着什么？

And what does that mean?

这意味着这些精确制导的无人机现在能更容易地锁定具体要攻击的船只。

That means those drones, which are precision guided, now can more easily find exactly which ship to hit.

所以它们确实可以

So they Do

我们怎么知道俄罗斯在这么做？

we know that Russia are doing that?

因为我们已经得到了相当确凿的确认，是的。

Because we've got it pretty well confirmed yeah.

如果你在这里，会听到更多反对声音。

From It's you would hear much more pushback here.

而你从黑格塞思秘书那里听到的，其实并不是真的在发生。

And what you're hearing from Secretary Hegseth is not it's not happening.

你说，哦，不会吧。

You're saying, oh, no.

好吧，我们别过度担心。

Well, let's not over worry.

不。

No.

这件事正在发生。

It's happening.

他们感到担忧，因为这又是那种避重就轻的做法。

And they're worried because that's the that's the, again, the dancing around.

他们并没有否认这件事确实正在发生。

They're not denying the fact that it's actually happening.

我认为特朗普在被问及时，曾说过类似的话：我不会责怪他们，因为我们对他们也是这么做的。

I think Trump actually, when asked, said something, words to the effect of, I wouldn't blame them because that's what we do to them.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

那他今天为什么还要和普京通话？

And why is he talking to Putin today?

他不是在主动谈话，他是在开记者会之前刚和普京通过电话。

He's not talking he was just on the phone with Putin before he did his press conference.

他和普京谈什么？

What's he talking to Putin about?

肯定是错误的情报，我敢肯定。

Bad intel, I'm sure.

也许是在做交易：你们不让我们获得情报，我们就否认你们看到的情况——这就是政治主导战术所引发的连锁反应。

And maybe cutting the deal, which is we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if you deny you see, this is the this is this is the the cascading effects of the politics dominates the tactics.

是的，这正是特朗普说的。

And, yeah, that's exactly what Trump said.

他在3月7日被问到俄罗斯与伊朗在情报上合作时说，如果我们问他们，他们会说我们也是这样对付他们的。

He said on March 7, when asked about Russia teaming up with Iran on intelligence, he said, if we asked them, they'd say we do it against them.

他们不会这么说吗？

Wouldn't they say that?

我们不是也这样对付他们吗？

We do it against them?

这几乎是在为它辩解。

It's almost justifying it.

特朗普经常直言不讳。

Trump often just speaks his mind.

有时他会隐瞒一些事情，但很多时候他还是会直言不讳。

Sometimes he kinda hides things, but some often he speaks his mind.

而你在这里看到的，正是这种自然的现象。

And what you're seeing here is of this is the natural thing.

俄罗斯的做法是：对鹅有利的，对鸭子也有利。

Russia is what's good for the goose, good for the gander.

是的。

Yeah.

他们正在对我们做我们曾经对他们做过的事，而且他们这么做就是为了伤害我们，你明白吗。

They're doing the same thing to us that we've done to them, and they have and they're doing it to hurt us, you see.

所以，与其做出这种间歇性的、冲动的反应——我们常常以为对手很愚蠢——

So rather than just spasmodically or spasm response here, which we often think the foes we're up against are stupid.

我们本质上觉得他们很蠢。

We essentially think they're dumb.

我们称这为非理性。

We call that irrational.

但真正发生的情况是，斯蒂芬，自越南战争以来，我们面对的对手都理解了关于美国的某件事，那就是打击我们的最佳方式是政治手段。

But what's really happening, Stephen, is since the Vietnam War, we have been up against foes that have understood something about America, which is the way to get at us is politically.

打一场持久战。

Make it a long war.

玩政治游戏。

Play the politics.

你在战场上无法与我们正面抗衡。

You can't go toe to toe with us on the battlefield.

我们会一次又一次地彻底击败他们。

We'll just clean their clock over and over.

他们通常不会尝试。

They don't often try.

他们不会和我们正面硬碰。

They don't go toe to toe with us.

我们在从未输过一场战斗的情况下输掉了越南战争。

We lost the Vietnam War with never losing a battle.

我们是怎么输的？

How did we lose?

我们输掉了这场持久战。

We lost the long game.

五万八千人死亡，看不到尽头，一场无休止的战争。

58,000 dead, no end in sight, a forever war.

我们这么做是为了什么？

What are we doing this for?

这就是北越人获胜的方式。

That is how the North Vietnamese won.

这也是阿富汗塔利班获胜的方式。

And that's how the Afghan Taliban won.

这就是坏人通常击败我们的方式。

That's how the bad guys typically beat us.

他们并不总是赢，但关键是，我们有一个脆弱的软肋。

They don't always win, but the bottom line is we have a soft underbelly.

问题不在军队。

It's not the military.

大多数人没有发布内容或打造个人品牌，很大程度上是因为这很难，而且很耗时。

Much of the reason most people haven't posted content or built their personal brand is because it's hard and it's time consuming.

而且我们每个人都非常非常忙。

And we're all very, very busy.

如果你从未发布过任何内容，你的心理上有许多因素会阻止你想要发布。

And if you've never posted something before, there's so many factors in your psychology that stop you wanting to post.

别人会怎么看你？

What people will think of you?

我这样做对吗？

Am I doing this right?

我所说的东西是不是完全愚蠢？

Is the thing I'm saying absolutely stupid?

所有这些都会导致瘫痪，意味着你不会发布内容，你的动态会变得空空如也。

All of these result in paralysis, which means you don't post and your feed goes bare.

我投资了一家叫 Stan Store 的公司，你可能听过我提起过。

I'm an investor in a company called Stan Store, which you've probably heard me talk about.

他们正在开发一个叫 Stan Lee 的新工具，它利用人工智能，分析你的动态、你的语气、你的历史记录以及你表现最好的帖子，然后告诉你该发什么内容，并帮你发布。

And what they've been building is this new tool called Stan Lee that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history, looks at your best performing posts, and tells you what you should post, makes those posts for you.

你也可以仅仅用它来获取灵感。

You can also just use it for inspiration.

当我们考虑为社交媒体发布内容时，有时候我们需要的正是灵感。

And sometimes what we need when we're thinking about doing a post for our social media channels is inspiration.

建立受众彻底改变了我的生活，我认为它也可能改变你的生活。

Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life, and I think it could change yours too.

所以我邀请你试用这个新工具，然后告诉我你的想法。

So I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot and let me know what you think.

你只需要搜索“coach Stan Store”即可开始。

All you have to do is search coach.

Stan。

Stan.

现在就去注册开始使用。

Store now to get started.

企业能做的最聪明的事之一，就是像大公司一样运作，却不必像大公司那样雇佣大量人员。

One of the smartest things a business can do is build like a bigger company without actually hiring like one.

但我们所有人面临的问题是，大多数公司并不具备所有内部技能。

But the problem we all face is that most companies don't have every skill in house.

因此，当我观察当今真正取得成功的公司时，它们的一个共同特点是行动速度极快。

So when I look at the businesses seeing real success today, the consistent pattern with all of them is how quickly they move.

它们会引入新兴领域的专家，以保持领先优势。

They bring in specialists with skills in emerging areas to keep themselves ahead.

即使在我们公司，过去一年我们也引入了AI原生战略、无代码开发和产品流程等方面的优秀人才。

Even in our company, we spent the last year pulling in talent across areas like AI native strategy, no code builds, and product workflows.

我们通过长期合作伙伴Fiverr Pro来寻找这些人才。

And we find this talent through our longtime partner, Fiverr Pro.

他们的高级服务只展示经过审核的人才，因此你始终可以确保，任何为你复杂项目提供帮助的人选都具备你所需的专业技能，并能以与内部团队相同的标准交付成果。

Their premium service only shows you vetted talent, so you've always got the safeguard that anyone you pull in to help you with a complex project has the skills that you're after and will deliver to the same high standards as your internal team.

最重要的是，他们能跟上节奏。

And most importantly, they'll keep up with the pace.

这是一个简单的策略，但它让我们在不牺牲质量的前提下保持敏捷。

It's a simple strategy, but it lets us stay agile without compromising on quality.

所以，如果你的企业需要这类技能，请前往 pro.fiverr.com 寻找能够填补你业务空白的前沿人才。

So if you need these kind of skills in your business, head to pro.fiverr.com to find pioneering talent to fill your business's gaps.

那就是 pro.fiverr.com。

That's pro.fiverr.com.

你觉得接下来会发生什么？

What do you think happens next?

如果你不得不坐着不动，会怎么样？

If you had to no offense sitting.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你要预测接下来会发生什么，你觉得会怎样？

If you had to predict what you think happens next, what would you

预测？

predict?

就在几个小时前刚发表的那篇外交事务文章末尾，我说过，特朗普总统正面临两难境地。

Well, I say this at the end of the foreign affairs article that just literally came out a couple hours ago, which is President Trump is on the horns of a dilemma.

他没有一条完美的退出路径。

And he has no golden off ramp.

他正在寻找退出方案，但没有哪一条能让他在政治上占上风。

He's looking for off ramps, but there's no golden one where he comes out politically ahead.

所以他面临一个选择，有时被称为霍布森选择——即削减损失，现在就接受政治上的失利。如果他现在撤退，这意味着什么？

So he's got a choice, sometimes called a Hobbsian choice, a Hobbsian choice, where you cut your losses, accept political loss now, and right now if he pulls back, and what does it mean to pull back?

你得把部队撤回来。

You gotta pull your forces back.

光说你只是暂停是不够的。

It's not enough to say you're just doing a pause.

如果你真的想停止，你就得把航空母舰派往某个地方。

If you want to stop if you want to stop for real, you take those aircraft carriers and you send them out somewhere.

你把它们派往亚洲。

You send them to Asia.

你把它们派到这里。

You send them here.

你必须真正采取一些行动。

You've got to actually make you've to do something here.

所以第一个选择是停止你的轰炸行动。

So choice one is you stop your bombing campaign.

你承认损失。

You cut your losses.

你尽量说我们只想摧毁导弹，尽管没人会相信。

You do your best to say we just want to destroy missiles, even though nobody will believe it.

好的。

Okay.

但这意味着你现在接受一个适度的损失。

But that means you accept a modest loss now.

或者另一种选择是继续加码，再持续几周。

Or the other is you double down and you go on for more weeks.

再持续几周，希望你能除掉这位领导人，也许下一位不会那么糟糕。

Go on for more weeks hoping you'll kill this leader and maybe the next one won't be so bad.

或者会出现其他你无法想象的结果。

Or you'll have some other sort of outcome that you can't imagine.

特朗普根本不算什么。

And Trump is nothing.

我称他为制造混乱的孩子。

I call him a chaos kid.

他在混乱中如鱼得水。

He thrives in chaos.

他常常在这种情况下突然冒出点什么，比如你根本没想到的后续发展。

And he often comes out of this with something happening, like when, you know, sort of down the road, you didn't expect it.

他本人可能也没料到。

He probably didn't expect it.

但这次，代价更可能是一场前所未有的政治失败，因为我们即将迎来中期选举。

But in this case, the price is more likely going to be a political failure of the first order because we have the midterms coming.

所以如果他有选择的话。

So if if he he's got a choice.

现在收手，止损，接受有限的政治失利，或者继续加码，再拖几个月，经历我所说的这种‘智能炸弹陷阱’的更多阶段，那你现在就真的进入林登·约翰逊的境地了。

Stop now, cut your losses, accept a limited political defeat, or double down, go on for a few months, go through more stages of this smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and you're really now in Lyndon Johnson territory.

前面提到过，我们正处在越南战争的境况中。

Remember, mentioned before, we're in Vietnam.

他不断升级，一级一级地往上爬，每一级都不放过。

He kept escalating, kept moving up the escalation ladder, every rung.

他说，不，不行。

He said, well, no.

我们拥有升级的主导权。

We have escalation dominance.

我们只是

We're just

要加倍投入。

going to double down.

我们要

We're going

下次更猛烈地打击他们。

to hit them harder the next time.

下次我们会这么做。

We're going to do this the next time.

听起来熟悉吗？

Sound familiar?

然后事情变得非常明显，这条路走不通了，而1968年大选即将到来。

And then what happened is it became absolutely clear that this was going nowhere, and the 'sixty '8 election came, was coming.

而林登·约翰逊自己的民主党同僚说，总统先生，

And Lyndon Johnson's own Democrats said, Mr.

我们不能骑着你的马冲进那个局面。

President, we can't ride your horse into that.

我们必须采取行动。

We got to do something.

问题在于他们在这里没有足够快地切断支持。

And the problem is they didn't pull the plug fast enough here.

他们就是这样输掉的。

That's how they lost.

他们没有及时止损，结果导致后来遭受更大的损失。

They don't they they don't pull the plug fast enough, so you end up having a bigger loss later.

当你谈到美国无法延长这些战争的软肋时，我这样理解是否正确：这基本上是民主制度的产物或后果，因为每四年

When you talk about the the underbelly that The United States has where they can't prolong these wars, am I right in thinking this is basically a function or a consequence of living in a democracy where every four I years

我认为这是选择性战争的特点。

think it's a function of a war of choice.

当我们遭到珍珠港袭击时，我们确实是被袭击了。

So when we were attacked in Pearl Harbor, we were attacked.

我们并不情愿加入第二次世界大战。

We were reluctant to get in World War II.

直到珍珠港真正遭到攻击，我们才参战。

And we were we didn't get in until we were actually struck at Pearl Harbor.

这足以让我们真正愤怒起来。

That was enough to really make us angry.

作为一个国家，我们非常愤怒，明白吗？

We were pissed off as a country, okay?

我们不仅要报复一个月，而是要进行真正的报复。

And we were going to get payback, not just for a month, but we were getting some real payback here.

这就是为什么岛屿跳跃战役如此残酷，以及它为何如此残酷的原因。

And that's how vicious that island hopping campaign was and why it was so vicious here.

这种状况持续了又持续。

And that went on and on.

当我们用原子弹结束战争时，有22%的美国公众希望我们不要接受日本投降，而是继续投下更多的原子弹。

And when we ended the war in dropping those atomic bombs, 22% of the American public wanted us to forget the Japanese surrender and drop more atomic bombs.

22%。

22%.

我们当时愤怒到了这种地步。

We were that angry.

所以当我们首先遭到攻击时，我们在道义上占据优势。

So when we are attacked first, we have the politics in our advantage.

当我们发动一场选择性战争时，我们可以编造出各种理由，说明先发制人是明智之举。

When we do a war of choice, we can make up all the reasons why it was a good idea to start throw the first punch.

他们打算攻击我们。

They were gonna hit us.

我们本来也打算，但当我们率先出手时，这就变成了一场选择性战争，而这会把道义优势让给对方。

We were gonna but when we throw that first punch first, that's a war of choice, and this puts the politics in the other camp's advantage.

这就是我们目前面临的困境。

And that's the problem that we're facing here.

伊朗并没有先攻击我们。

Iran didn't hit us first.

他们在六月也没有先攻击我们。

They didn't hit us first in June.

在那之前他们也没有先攻击我们。

They didn't hit us first before that.

所以关于这场选择性战争这一点上

So on this point of war of choice

是的。

Yep.

我脑子里有两个问题。

There's really two questions I have in front of mind.

第一个是，特朗普认为，如果他不发动攻击，伊朗就会继续 enrich 铀，制造核武器，这在你看来会危及整个地区乃至全世界，他这种说法对吗？

One is, was Trump right that if he didn't attack, then they would have enriched uranium, they would have made a nuclear weapon, and that would have put not just the region but the world at danger in your view.

第二个是关于以色列在这场战争中所扮演角色的持续争论。

And then the second one is this sort of ongoing debate around the role of Israel in this war.

我认为是马可·卢比奥出来表示，我认为他可能是无意中说，他们攻击伊朗的原因是听说以色列即将攻击伊朗。

And I think it was Marco Rubio that came out and, I think, maybe accidentally said that the reason why they attacked Iran was because they heard that Israel were about to attack Iran.

那么让我们回到星期五，也就是我们开始轰炸行动的前一天。

So so let's go back to the Friday, the day before we start the bombing campaign.

这是2月27日，华盛顿时间凌晨03:15。

This is February 27, literally 03:15 Washington time.

就在那时，特朗普做出了开战的决定。

That's when Trump makes the go decision.

但他当时面临的是怎样的选择呢？

But what's in his what what is he choosing between?

伊朗方面已经提出了一项对美国更有利的协议，比奥巴马时期的协议更好。

He has an offer on the table from Iran for a better deal than the Obama deal for America.

这并不是完美无缺的。

And it is it's not absolutely perfect.

他们仍然希望保留一些微量的铀浓缩，但这里还有很多其他因素。

They still want to have some minor enrichment to but the lots of things here.

现在，也许这仍然不完美，但特朗普总统在那个星期五下午有一个选择。

Now, maybe it's still not perfect, but President Trump has a choice on that Friday afternoon.

他可以回去，继续推进这笔交易。

He can go back and he can work this deal.

毕竟，他是个谈判高手，对吧？

He can, you know, after all, deal maker, right?

让我们假设他擅长谈判。

Let's let's assume he's good at deal making.

所以他可以回去推进这笔交易。

So he can go back and work the deal.

但他并没有这么做。

But that's not what he does.

他所做的，是直接放弃了这笔交易。

What he does is he throws that deal away.

而且，当这笔交易被取消时，最高领袖当时也同意了这笔交易。

And also the Supreme Leader, when he killed that, the Supreme Leader was on board with that deal too.

那我们instead做了什么？

And what do we do instead?

我们选择了政权更迭。

We we go through regime change.

所以，斯蒂芬，在进入第二阶段之前，我们其实处于第一阶段。

So the choices here, Stephen, were, before we got to stage two, we were in stage one.

第一阶段，我们已经打击了福尔多。

Stage one, we had hit Fordo.

当时正在进行谈判，伊朗提出的方案比奥巴马时期的协议更好。

There were negotiations, and Iran's coming up with a better deal than the Obama deal.

那他做了什么？

And what does he do?

他却直接跳到了第二阶段。

He goes to stage two instead.

所以，我认为你听到的这个说法——他们原本打算做X、Y或Z——其实根本不存在，当时是有协议摆在桌面上的。

So I don't think this is this this story you're hearing, they were gonna do x, y, or z, is there was a deal on the table.

那鲁比奥为什么这么说呢？

And Why did Rubio say that then?

他为什么说他们发动攻击是因为以色列即将发动攻击？

Why did he say that they attacked because Israel were gonna attack?

好的。

Okay.

我想播放这段视频，这正是所指的内容。

I wanna play this video, which is what that's referring to.

好的。

Okay.

如果

If

如果我们坐等对方先发动攻击，再还击，我们就会遭受更大的伤亡。

we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties.

因此，总统做出了非常明智的决定。

And so the president made the very wise decision.

我们知道以色列即将采取行动。

He we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.

我们知道这将引发对美国部队的攻击。

We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.

我们知道，如果我们不先发制人地打击他们，等他们发动攻击后，我们会遭受更大的伤亡，甚至可能有更多人丧生。

And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even hire those killed.

然后我们所有人都会在这里被问到：为什么我们知道这些却没采取行动。

And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn't act.

这表明，是以色列即将发动攻击这件事在主导局势，正如我所说，这在六月刚刚发生过。

So what that shows you is that it's the tail wagging the dog that Israel is going to attack, as I'm saying, just happened in June.

这不过是六月发生的事情的重演。

So it's a replay of what happened in June.

以色列可能确实有理由——但我们不知道以色列为何决定发动攻击并杀死最高领袖。

Israel may well have we don't know why Israel decided to attack and kill the Supreme Leader.

实际上是以色列的炸弹杀死了最高领袖，以及其他那些接替的领导人。

It was actually Israeli bombs who killed the Supreme Leader, and also those other replacement leaders as well.

但以色列很可能在想，天啊，特朗普快要达成协议了。

But Israel may well have been thinking that, my goodness, Trump is getting too close to a deal.

这正是六月发生的事情。

That's what happened in June.

特朗普当时正濒临与伊朗达成协议，而以色列却去杀了谈判代表，你明白吗？

Trump was on the edge of a deal with Iran, and then Israel goes and kills the negotiators, you see.

所以，请你好好想一想。

So just think about that for a moment.

他们正在和伊朗人谈判，然后说，好吧，明天再回来。

They're Trump is negotiating with the Iranians, and then they say, well, okay, come back the next day.

第二天会有什么？

And what is there the next day?

以色列的炸弹炸死了他们。

Israeli bombs killing them.

我的意思是，这根本不是处理伙伴关系的好方式。

So, I mean, that's not a good that's not a great way to handle a partnership.

这只是表明我们其实还有其他选择。

Well, it's just it's just showing you we had another choice.

我们本可以告诉以色列不要这么做。

We could have told Israel not to do it.

我们本可以告诉以色列：如果你这么做，我们就切断未来三年对你的所有军事援助。

We could have told Israel, if you do this, we're gonna cut off all your military aid for the next three years.

这会给以色列带来一些压力。

That would put some pressure on Israel.

那么，特朗普就不得不在政治上付出代价。

Now, then Trump would have to pay a price politically.

所以我说的不是这是一件容易的事。

So I'm not saying that's an easy thing to do.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

但我们需要明白，这些正是特朗普面临的、促使局势升级的压力建构在升级陷阱之中。

But we need to understand that that Trump these are the these are the pressures for escalation in the escalation trap.

所以我正在试图解释，为什么这件事不是随机发生的，史蒂文。

So I'm trying to explain why this isn't just randomly happening, Steven.

并不是说，天哪，我跟不上正在发生的事。

It's not like, oh my goodness, I can't follow what's occurring.

所以当特朗普在今天的简报中谈到停止空袭时，他是打算让以色列停止行动吗？

So that's why when Trump says in today's briefing, talks about stopping the air campaign, is he gonna stop Israel's campaign?

这个问题今天根本没有被提出来。

That's the question that did not come up today.

我把这一点放在了我的重点里。

It's in my I put it on my accent.

今天没有被提及的一个重大问题是：特朗普总统，您会打电话给内塔尼亚胡，要求他停止轰炸伊朗吗？

The one of the big questions that did not come up is, President Trump, are you gonna call Netanyahu and tell him to stop bombing Iran?

在你看来，特朗普能控制内塔尼亚胡吗？

Does Trump control Netanyahu in your view?

再说一遍，这关乎的是压力问题。

Well, again, it's about pressures here.

关键是你要搞清楚，你到底有哪些方式是不行的。

It's about what are the what are the ways you you you you don't.

这并不是关于个人忠诚或人际关系的问题。

It's not about a matter of, like, a personal loyalty relationship.

这是最高级别的政治博弈。

This is politics of the first order.

这正是我试图解释的。

That's what I'm trying to explain.

因此，如果特朗普要阻止内塔尼亚胡这么做，他将要付出代价。

So for President Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this, this will be paying a price.

他的MAGA支持者中有一大部分不仅支持以色列，而且特别支持内塔尼亚胡版本的以色列。

He will have a there are a big part of his MAGA constituencies, very pro, not just Israel, pro Netanyahu version of Israel.

这正是我试图解释的政治张力——这就是为什么你根本不想踏入这个陷阱。

So this is the tension in in the politics that I'm trying to explain, which is why you don't really wanna start the trap in the first place.

我刚才问了你一个问题，没有冒犯的意思，基于你过去三十年的研究和二十年的模拟，你认为这场战争接下来会发生什么？

And I asked you a second ago, no offense sitting, what happens next in this war based on everything you've studied for the last thirty years, the twenty years of doing simulations?

我认为，不太可能在接下来的一两周内发生。

I think it's more likely than not that maybe not in the next week or two.

我在我的子频道上说过，由于那些四处扩散的浓缩材料，我们很可能会进行有限的地面部署。

I've said on my sub sec, it's more likely than not we will get to a limited ground deployment here because of the fizzle because of the I'm just keep saying because of the the enriched material that is floating around.

我们知道这些材料正在扩散，但不知道它们具体在哪里，可能有数百个房间，大小和我们所在的这个房间差不多，甚至大两三倍，这些房间都可能被用来制造一颗‘胖子’型原子弹。

Dispersing, we know it's dispersing, we don't know where it is, and there could be literally hundreds of rooms, not much bigger than this size, maybe two or three times this size that we're in, that could be used to fashion an an a fat man style a bomb.

并不是要将其小型化并装到弹头上去。

Not to miniaturize it to put on a warhead.

那会更复杂一些。

That would be more sophisticated.

但如果你的目标是制造一颗广岛原子弹，能在一两秒内杀死七万五千人，那才是我们这里所讨论的内容。

But if what you want to do is you want to have a Hiroshima bomb that can kill seventy five thousand people in a second or ten seconds, that is what they are in the the the the the that's what we're talking about here.

我们不是在讨论他们是否能把炸弹小型化并装到导弹弹头上。

We're not talking about can they put miniaturize the bomb to put it on the nose cone of a war of a missile.

他们根本不需要那样做。

This is they don't need it.

这是非常复杂的技术。

That's very sophisticated stuff.

我们十年内都做不到这一点。

We couldn't do that for ten years.

所以我想到了两个问题。

So I guess there's two there's two questions that come to mind.

要理解一个人的行为，你就得理解他们的动机。

The first is to understand someone's behavior, you have to, like, understand their motivations.

我经常思考特朗普在他的职业生涯和遗产中所处的位置，以及这些对他有多重要。

And I I think a lot about, like, where Trump is in his career, legacy, how how much that matters to him.

根据我所看到的，他想要赢得诺贝尔和平奖、和平委员会，成为终结一切战争的总统，这一切似乎都表明他在考虑自己将如何被铭记。

It appears, from what I've seen, the whole thing around him wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, the the Peace Board, the being the president that stops all it appears that he's thinking about how he's gonna be remembered.

当我最近看他的一些采访时，他说我不想在十年后或五年后，美国不得不重新介入，因为我没做好。

And when I'm looking at some of his interviews recently, he's saying things like, I don't want it to be the case that in ten years' time or in five years' time, The US have to go back in again because, like, I didn't do a good job.

这让我开始相信，实际上，从美国的角度来看，我们可能会进一步升级这场战争，原因之一是遗产在事后看来会改变。

And it made me start to believe that actually one of his one of the reasons why we might escalate this war further from a United States perspective is because legacy changes in hindsight.