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美国认为自己从斩首伊朗领导层中能获得什么好处？
What does The United States think it's going to gain from decapitating the Iranian leadership?
嗯，这根据总统的言论来看其实挺明显的。
Well, that that's kind of obvious based on what the president has said.
就是说
It's that
他根据总统的言论。
he On what the president has said.
我只是根据总统的说法来说。
I'm I'm just saying based on what the president says.
你现在听到的任何话都不能相信。
You can't trust anything that you're hearing right now.
你现在读到的任何内容都不能相信。
You can't trust anything that you're reading right
现在。
now.
由于多个但
Due to multiple But
那就是
that's the
你
do you
怎么才能信任某人呢？
come to trust somebody?
对吧？
Right?
这并不偏执。
It's not paranoid.
但这是健康的。
But it's healthy.
声称一切都是虚假信息才是绝对的偏执。
It is absolutely paranoid to suggest that everything is misinformation.
伊朗没有核武器，所以它不是核威胁。
Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, so it's not a nuclear threat.
你所说的核语言和我不一样。
You speak a different nuclear language than I do.
这个政权正处于其最低谷。
This regime is at its lowest, lowest point.
为什么现在不打击它呢？
Why not strike it now?
我的意思是，我可以给出很多你不该打击它的理由。
I mean, I can give lots of reasons why you wouldn't strike it.
它仍然是我也会说的，他们自己的
It's still what I would also say their own
对不起。
I'm sorry.
你担心什么？
What are you concerned about,
你预见到的非预期后果有哪些？
and what are the unintended consequences that you're foreseeing?
美国所做的每一个决定都会产生多米诺骨牌效应。
There is a domino effect that happens with every decision that United States makes.
所以
So
各位，在本集开始前，我想拜托大家一件事。
Guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins.
你们中经常听这个节目的听众有69%还没有点击关注按钮，而这个关注按钮非常有用，因为它能确保你不会错过最精彩的剧集。
69% of you that listen to the show frequently haven't yet hit the follow button, and that follow button is very smart because it means you won't miss the best episodes.
如果你关注了一个节目，算法会将该节目的最佳剧集显著地推送到你的信息流中。
The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show very prominently in your feed.
因此，当我们推出本节目最精彩、被分享最多、评分最高的剧集时，我希望你能第一时间知道。
So when we have our best episodes on this show, the most shared episodes, the most rated episodes, I would love you to know.
而你了解这些的最简单方式，就是点击那个关注按钮。
And the simple way for you to know that is to hit that follow button.
但同时，我认为有41%的常听用户选择了关注这个节目，这正是我们能够不断改进所有方面的关键原因。
But also, the fact that, I think, what, 41% of you have chosen to follow the show that listen to it regularly is the reason why we've been able to improve everything.
这是你们能为我们制作更好节目所做出的简单、轻松且免费的举动。
It's the simple, easy, free thing that you can do to help us make this show better.
如果你们能现在花一分钟，在你们正在收听的App里点一下关注按钮，我会非常感激。
I would be hugely grateful if you could take a minute on the app you're listening to this on right now and hit that follow button.
真的非常、非常、非常感谢你们。
Thank you so, so, so much.
本杰明、安妮、安德鲁。
Benjamin, Annie, Andrew.
首先，感谢你们今天来到这里。
First and foremost, thank you for being here today.
我必须先提出这个一直萦绕在我心头的问题——作为一个对地缘政治知之甚少的人，到底发生了什么？
I I have to start with the question that's been on my mind as somebody that doesn't know a huge amount about geopolitics, which is what the hell is going on?
我这么说，正是因为这正是我想表达的意思。
And I and I say that because that's exactly what I mean.
现在到底发生了什么？我要了解哪些历史背景，才能理解伊朗当前发生的这些行动？
What is going on and what context do I need to understand this sort of historical context of the actions we're seeing in Iran with this war right now?
本杰明，我知道你和伊朗有个人联系，因为你的家人逃离了伊朗，对吧？
Benjamin, I know you've got a a personal connection to Iran because your family fled Iran, I believe.
是的。
Yeah.
我们离开的时候我只有两岁，那是1979年3月，沙阿刚离开几个月，而霍梅尼刚上台。
I was, I was two years old when we left in March 1979, a few months after the shah had left and, just after Khamenei had arrived.
沙阿是谁？霍梅尼又是谁？
What is the shah, and what is Khamenei?
对。
Yeah.
抱歉。
Sorry.
沙阿是伊朗的前君主，属于巴列维王朝，该王朝于20世纪30年代上台，推翻了之前存在了几百年的王朝。
The shah, the former monarch of Iran, the Pahlavi dynasty, which came into power in the nineteen thirties, deposing a previous dynasty that had been around for a couple hundred years.
他的父亲建立了这个王朝，后来英国和美国认为他在二战期间与纳粹走得太近，担心纳粹对石油供应路线的控制，于是将他推翻。
And the his father brought in that dynasty, and then it was eventually he was deposed by the British and the Americans who felt he was getting too close to the Nazis during World War two, concerned about supply routes for the Nazis' oil.
他的儿子在非常年轻的时候就被扶上王位，我记得是18或19岁。
And his son was installed on the throne at a very young age, I believe, 18 or 19.
他从1941年、1942年左右开始统治伊朗，一直到1979年，期间逐渐成为美国的重要盟友，但最终被霍梅尼推翻。霍梅尼是一位资深教士，自六十年代起就是沙阿的眼中钉，最初被流放到土耳其，然后是伊拉克，最后流亡到法国，就在巴黎郊外。
And he ruled Iran from from that period, 1941, 1942 around that time, all the way through '79, a great ally of The United States over over time eventually, and, was depo was was, overthrown in a revolution and, by Khamenei, is a senior cleric who had been a thorn in the Shah's side since the sixties, was exiled first to Turkey, then Iraq, then ultimately to France, right outside Paris, actually.
从那里，他领导了推翻沙阿的革命，发生在1979年。
From there, he basically led the revolution that led to the Shah's, removal, after her in '79.
沙阿掌权时期和霍梅尼掌权时期，伊朗有什么不同？
And how was Iran different when the Shah was in power versus when Khamenei was in power?
这取决于你问谁。
That depends on who you ask.
那是一个君主立宪制国家。
It was a constitutional monarchy.
沙阿的权力超出了我们今天对君主立宪制（比如英国）的理解范围。
The Shah had powers that exceeded beyond what we think a constitutional monarchy has today, like in Great Britain.
他需要的时候会铁腕统治。
He was he ruled with an iron fist when he needed to.
他是个专制者，但同时也是一位迅速推动伊朗社会现代化的领导人，希望让伊朗更像西方国家，利用伊朗丰富的石油资源和财富加速发展，建设社会机构、医疗、扫盲和现代化等各项事业。
He was an authoritarian, but he also was one that was rapidly modernizing Iranian society, wanting to make it more like the West, using Iran's immense oil resources and wealth to really accelerate development, building of social institutions, health care, literacy, modernization, all of those things.
他的目标就是让伊朗更像西方。
That was his focus, make Iran more like the West.
从这个角度看，他是成功的，但代价往往是许多人的公民自由。
And, in that sense, he succeeded, but it came at the expense oftentimes of civil liberties for many people.
这牺牲了那些希望以自己方式实践宗教、什叶派伊斯兰教的人们的自由。
It came at the expense of freedom for those who wanted to essentially practice religion, Islam, Shia Islam in their own way.
沙阿并不敌视宗教，但他的政策与传统伊朗穆斯林的期望不一致，这在社会中制造了分裂。
The shah was not hostile to religion, but he he his policies were inconsistent with where the traditional religious Iranians wanted to go, and it sort of created a schism in society.
而且你还看到了贫富差距。
And you also had a wealth gap, an income disparity.
巨额财富涌入国家，但却没有向下渗透到村庄和农村的穷人手中。
Immense wealth poured into the country, but it didn't trickle its way downward into the sort of the village and rural poor.
因此，人们对他的政策感到非常不满和失望，这引发了一种民粹主义的反弹，人们渴望一种更民主、更负责任、更具西方色彩的体制，颇具讽刺意味。
And so there's a lot of frustration, a lot of disenchantment with his policies, and that led to sort of this populist backlash of wanting something that was more democratic, more accountable, more like the West, ironically.
而这正是这一循环走向的开端。
And, and that sort of was the beginning of of where that cycle led.
那么，哈梅内伊是如何掌权的呢？
And so how did Khamenei take power of Iran?
他领导了一场群众性的民粹运动，这不是一场宗教运动，而是跨越了多种社会经济和政治阶层，将反对派统一在推翻君主制、摆脱对西方依赖的口号之下。
He led a movement, a mass populist movement, not a religious one, but meant to, go across multiple socioeconomic and political divides and unified the opposition under this idea of removing the monarchy, removing dependence on the West.
他明确指出，美国在很大程度上应为伊朗当前的状况负责，人们无法获得生活所需、自由与权利。
He specifically said Iran The United States was to large part to blame for Iran being in the state that it was, for people not having the the the the things they needed to live, the freedoms, the liberties.
他将沙阿使用秘密警察和酷刑手段归咎于美国和以色列，声称正是这两国教会了秘密警察如何实施这些手段。
He blamed the shah's use of the secret police and torture methods on The United States and on Israel who he claimed, you know, taught the secret police how to do these things.
这其中有着复杂的历史背景。
There's a complicated sort of history to that.
他向人们承诺，将拯救他们脱离一个他描绘成美国傀儡的暴君。
And he basically promised them salvation from a what he did what he portrayed as a puppet tyrant of The United States.
民众对此深信不疑，无论是左派还是右派。
And the masses bought into this, but both the left and the right.
真正的右派主要是黑派，即伊斯兰主义者。
The really the right consisted of the the black, the Islamist.
所以你有红色派，也就是马克思主义社会主义者的支持者。
So you had the red, which were sort of the the Marxist socialist, followers.
你有黑色派，然后还有中间派，他们都凝聚在这一位极具魅力的宗教人物周围——他是一位极其简朴的人，自身生活毫无奢华，却始终如一地反对他所认为的暴政与专制。
You had the black, and then you had sort of that middle in in between, and they all coalesced around this one charismatic religious figure, very austere man, one who didn't really have a lot of luxuries himself, led a simple life, but was consistent with his opposition to what he saw, tyranny and despotism.
人们都相信了他。
And people bought into it.
美国人不喜欢这样吗？
And the Americans didn't like this?
美国人对此感到困惑，当时美国国务院和中情局在七十年代未能认清真正的威胁所在，这是个失误，我想安德鲁也可以谈谈这一点。
The Americans didn't know what to make of it, and there was a failure, and I think Andrew can talk about this as well, over a failure by the state department and the CIA in the seventies to see where the threat was.
他们认为威胁来自苏联。
They saw the threat coming from the Soviet Union.
他们仍然担心苏联在中东的渗透，尤其是通过伊朗。
They they were still afraid of Soviet encroachment in the Middle East, particularly through Iran.
他们的关注点在于马克思主义者和共产党。
Their concerns were with the Marxists, the communist parties.
他们没有仔细关注黑色势力。
They did not carefully look at the black.
他们没有关注伊斯兰主义者。
They didn't look at the Islamists.
直到为时已晚，他们才意识到这些人构成威胁。
They didn't see them as a threat until it was too late.
沙阿本人阻挠了美国中情局，或根本未给予其对伊朗的全面访问权限。
The Shah himself blocked or really didn't give the CIA full access to Iran.
流出的信息非常有限。
There was limited information that was coming out.
他依赖自己的情报渠道，而这些渠道只向他传递他想听的信息——即一切都很顺利。
He relied on his own, intelligence, which fed him information he wanted to hear, which is that everything is going great.
这个国家状况良好。
The country's doing well.
人民都很爱你。
The people love you.
他们都很快乐。
They're all happy.
直到不满和抗议达到临界点，才为时已晚，无法采取任何措施。
Until the discontent and the the protest became they reached a threshold, and it was too late to do anything about it.
是的。
Yeah.
当时，美国正处于干涉他国政府的巅峰时期，以一种奇怪的方式，我们如今似乎又回到了原点——通过控制国家的领导人来掌控整个国家。
The United States was kind of at their peak period of meddling in foreign governments at the time, kind of in a strange way that we've come full circle, this idea of controlling an entire country by controlling the figurehead of the country.
在20世纪70年代末，冷战即将爆发之际，我们正是处于这样的境地，对吧？
That's where we were in the late '70s at the kind of brink of the Cold War, right?
没人知道柏林墙会倒塌。
Nobody knew that the Berlin Wall was going to fall.
我们当时都关注共产主义的扩张。
We were all concerned with the spread of communism.
没有人关注伊斯兰主义的威胁。
Nobody was paying attention to the Islamist threat.
没有人关注任何其他类型的威胁。
Nobody was paying attention to really any other kind of threat at all.
那时的中央情报局完全不受约束、缺乏监管，拥有巨额资金四处活动。
It was very much the unfettered, uncontrolled, unsupervised CIA running around with no oversight and with very deep pockets.
这种情况后来有改变吗？
And that changed at some point?
2001年，基地组织成功在纽约发动了9·11袭击，情况才发生改变。
That changed in 2001 when Al Qaeda successfully carried out the nineeleven attacks in New York.
一瞬间，我们一直忽视的威胁就出现在了家门口，并且已经变得极其富有、遍布全球，伊斯兰极端主义几乎一夜之间成了家喻户晓的术语。
And all of a sudden, the threat that we had all been ignoring was on our doorstep and had grown so wealthy and had spread so vast across the world that Islamic extremism became almost overnight a household term.
现在，基地组织的伊斯兰什叶派极端主义，与什叶派信仰本身以及什叶派激进分子为支持伊朗所追求的目标之间，仍然存在区别。
Now there's still a difference between Al Qaeda Islamic Shia extremism and what is practiced in the Shia faith and with the outcomes that the Shia militants are trying to pursue in support of Iran.
但在美国，我们很难区分逊尼派和什叶派，因为我们根本不了解这两者之间的区别。
But it's hard to differentiate that in The United States where we don't understand the difference between Sunni and Shia.
安妮，你认为这场战争真正是为了什么？
Annie, what do you think this war is really about?
你们两位说的都很有意思。
Very interesting what you both said.
我想补充一点，这一点与当下密切相关：自二战结束后成立以来，直到九一一事件发生前，中央情报局在几十年间经历了多次起伏。
And I think what I would add to that, which very much speaks to today, is that the CIA, in fact, had many ups and downs over the decades from its creation right after World War II until this moment in time and then on nine eleven.
因此，中央情报局的权力就像手风琴一样，时而被收回，时而又被重新夺回，因为历史上中央情报局一直是总统的隐秘之手。
And so it's been like an accordion experience of power being taken away from the CIA and then being grabbed back because the CIA has always historically been the president's hidden hand.
它一直是白宫绕开军队必须遵守的战争法规、行使行政权力的手段。
It has been the way in which the White House can execute executive power without having to follow the laws of war that the military does.
军队的行动依据是《标题十》。
So, military is a code called Title X.
中央情报局的行动依据是《标题十五》。
CIA is a code called Title XV.
虽然这听起来可能有点专业，但理解这一点很重要，因为正如安德鲁可以说明的那样，第XV条本质上赋予总统根据机密总统指令更改任何适合当前行动的规则的权力，这恰恰将我们带到了今天的境地。
And while that may sound a bit wonkish, it is important to understand because Title XV essentially, as Andrew can speak to, gives the president authority under classified presidential directive to change any rule he wants that suits him for an operation at hand, which gets us precisely to where we are today.
据我理解，曾经有一位君主领袖，即沙阿，掌握着权力。
So, as far as I understand, there was the Shah, the sort of royal leader who was in power.
他在二十世纪七十年代末被哈梅内伊推翻。
He was overthrown in the late nineteen seventies by Khamenei.
哈梅内伊动员人们相信他的理念，而他一直
Khamenei galvanized people to believe in his way, and he's been
掌权至今。
in power ever since.
情况变得复杂，因为原本领导革命的是姓哈梅内伊（带字母o）的人，后来被另一位姓哈梅内伊（带字母oh，发音为okay）的人取代。
It gets complicated because Khamenei, with an o, was the original leader of the revolution and was later replaced by Khamenei with Oh, an okay.
有两个人。
There's two.
那
That
那是第一百位领导人。
is that one one hundred leader.
这体现了自1979年以来伊朗所经历的革命性质。
And this speaks to the revolutionary nature of Iran, which has been taking place since 1979.
今天的新闻中，人们听到的是伊朗革命卫队。
In the news today, people hear the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
理解‘革命’这个词至关重要，而在这方面，你比我们任何人都更了解：伊朗，或者说这个政权，一直坚持着我们是反对美国的革命力量这一理念。
And it's so important to understand that word revolution because, and you can speak to this better than any of us, but Iran has been holding on to this idea that or rather, the regime has that we are the revolutionary force against America.
这就是为什么口号总是‘打倒美国’。
That is why the chant is always death to America.
1975年之前的创伤——美国干预并扶植沙阿作为其傀儡的创伤——两天前依然像1979年革命后第二天那样剧烈。
The wound of pre-nineteen seventy five, the wound of America meddling and having the Shah as its puppet is as inflamed or was as inflamed two days ago as it was the day after the revolution in nineteen seventy nine.
我认为我们忽略了重要的背景：美国曾介入沙阿对伊朗的统治。
I think that's probably important context we missed, which was The US got involved in the shah and how he governed Iran.
那是一个引人入胜的时期。
It's a fascinating period.
1951年，基本上，
In 1951 so, basically,
根据伊朗宪法，国王有权在议会同意的情况下任命总理。
under the Iranian constitution, the shah, the king, has the authority to select the prime minister with the consent of parliament.
所谓‘同意’实际上只是形式上的。
The consent part is really nominal.
摩萨台是议会的资深成员，也与之前的王室家族有远亲关系，这位年长的政治家，国王在接连任命了多位总理后，出于礼貌，说：好吧。
And so Mossadegh, who is a senior member of parliament and also a member of the previous royal dynasty, distantly related, this elderly statesman who shah, out of sort of courtesy after having gone through a successive list of prime ministers, says, okay.
我任命他为总理。
I'm gonna appoint him prime minister.
他并不是通过民主选举上任的。
So he wasn't democratically elected.
他是被选为议员的。
He was the he was elected to parliament.
但从那以后，国王选他担任总理。
But from there, the shah selected him to be prime minister.
摩萨台将石油公司——英美石油公司——国有化，该公司主要由英国拥有。
Mossadegh nationalized the oil company, the Anglo American oil company, which was owned primarily by the British.
这一举动激怒了英国人，他们随即封锁了伊朗的港口，基本瘫痪了伊朗的石油产业，引发了全国性危机。
This angered the British who in turn blockaded Iran's ports and basically shut down its oil industry and creating a national crisis.
摩萨台本人也在逐步为自己攫取更多权力，超越了其原本的职权范围。尽管他得到了相当一部分公众的支持，但随着局势明朗，这一做法显然是一步臭棋，尤其在伊朗的国际贸易伙伴眼中，导致伊朗被孤立，于是出现了反对他的声音，最终他被罢免。
And Mass Surveillance was sort of amassing additional powers within himself for himself, basically, overstepping the authority that he had, even though he had the support of a good deal of the public as it became obvious that this was a a bad move, especially in the eyes of Iran's international trading partners, and it was causing Iran to be isolated, there was pushback towards him, and then he was removed.
英国人一直希望MI6推翻他，将他赶下台，并试图拉拢美国共同行动。
The British had wanted MI six had wanted to overthrow him, basically get him removed, and they try to recruit The United States to help.
总统杜鲁门拒绝参与这一行动。
President Truman refused to, engage in this earlier.
艾森豪威尔上台后，在中央情报局局长艾伦·杜勒斯的影响下，更愿意介入此事，启动了代号为“阿贾克斯行动”的计划，由中情局特工克米特·罗斯福负责执行。
Eisenhower comes in, is more receptive under c I CIA director Alan Dulles to actually engage in this called operation TP Ajax led by Kermit Roosevelt, who is the CIA agent, officer tasked with this.
随后，美国和英国联手煽动了一支群众队伍，这支队伍成为推翻摩萨台运动的一部分。
And then the Americans and the British basically help foment a crowd that is a part of the movement that removes most of that deck.
现在，人们普遍误以为美国中情局是这一事件的幕后主使。
Now whether it's a common, I think, a misconception that the US CIA was behind it.
英国在这件事中扮演了更大的角色。
The British had a bigger role in in this.
美国人更多是次要伙伴，但他们成了这件事的公众面孔。
The Americans were more of the junior partner, but they became sort of the public face of it.
是的。
Mhmm.
但摩萨台也并非一个广受支持的民选领袖。
But Mossadegh was not this overwhelmingly popular democratically elected figure either.
这段历史要复杂得多。
The history is more complicated.
无论如何，他之后还有过许多位总理。
And regardless, there have been many prime ministers there were many prime ministers after him.
他被称为民族主义者，因为他认为伊朗的石油应该国有化，而不应受英国利益左右，这引发了大量怨恨和敌意。
And so he was known as a nationalist because he believed that Iran's oil should be nationalized and not really beholden to British interests, and that created a lot of, resentment and animosity.
但真正使美伊关系稳固起来，是在沙阿回归之后。
But that began The US Iranian relationship really solidified when the Shah returned.
他其实并没有离开。
He didn't leave, really.
他只是暂时离开了国家，但从未辞职。
He just sort of took himself out of the country for a bit, but he never stepped down.
在这一切解决的过程中，他又回来了，美伊关系一直持续到1979年。
And while this was all being resolved, then he comes back, and then the The US Iranian relationship continues all the way through '79.
所以英国和美国长期以来一直在干涉伊朗，某种程度上强加自己的意志。
So The UK and The US have been meddling in Iran for a long time and kind of, you know, exerting their will.
英国从十九世纪起就远超其他势力。
The UK since the nineteenth century, by far.
英国是现代伊朗历史上主导的殖民力量。
The UK has been the dominant colonial force in in modern Iranian history.
他们在二十世纪八十年代初失去这种权力，因为哈梅内伊上台了。
And they lose that power in the sort of nineteen eighties, early nineteen eighties because the Khamenei comes in.
英国是在二十世纪四十年代二战后，随着帝国的瓦解而失去这一权力的，而美国则是在1979年。
The British lose that power with the fall of pretty much the fall of the empire in the nineteen forties after World War two and then United States in '79.
没错。
Exactly.
从那以后，英国和美国就再也无法对伊朗施加控制或强加他们的意志了。
And then since then, The UK and The US haven't been able to sort of exert control in their will over Iran.
零。
Zero.
零。
Zero.
那里甚至没有大使馆，因为显然他们占领了我们的大使馆。
There's not even an embassy there because, of course, they took our embassy or they took over the embassy.
我的意思是，对于中情局的权力、任何美国势力，实际上任何西方势力来说，这里都成了彻底的空白地带。
I mean, it's been like ground zero of nothing for the CIA's power, for any American power, really, any Western power.
你称之为黑箱。
You call it a black box.
这是一个流氓国家。
It's a rogue nation.
这是一个信息黑箱。
It's a black box of information.
流氓国家是世界上为数不多的不遵守任何国际准则的国家之一。
A rogue nation is one of a handful of countries around the world that follow no international norms.
朝鲜是一个流氓国家。
North Korea is a rogue nation.
白俄罗斯是一个流氓国家。
Belarus is a rogue nation.
古巴是一个流氓国家。
Cuba is a rogue nation.
委内瑞拉曾经是一个流氓国家。
Venezuela was a rogue nation.
这些国家完全脱离了国际社会的规范。
These countries that completely stand separate from the norms of an international society.
而在伊朗的情况下，它还变成了一个黑箱，不允许外国人进入，尤其是西方人。
And in Iran's case, it also became this black box where it did not allow foreigners in, especially not Westerners.
它关闭了其大使馆。
It closed down its embassy.
传统的情报收集方法非常困难。
The traditional methods for collecting intelligence were very difficult.
而且从地理上看，它离美国如此遥远，完全处于美国影响力范围之外，因此在情报和军事优先级上，它直接排到了列表末尾。
And geographically, it's so far away and so far outside of the sphere of influence for The United States that in terms of intelligence and military prioritization, it just fell to the bottom of the list.
但你看它确切的位置在哪里。
And yet, look exactly where it is.
它正好位于中东的中心。
It's right in the middle of the East.
正如本杰明所说，石油，石油，石油。
And to Benjamin's point, oil, oil, oil.
归根结底总是石油。
It's always about oil.
石油始终是一个重要因素。
There's always a component of oil.
该地区除了伊朗之外，还有许多其他石油选择。
And there are so many other oil options in that region besides Iran.
沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、巴林、卡塔尔。
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar.
美国可以与其他阿拉伯国家合作，以获得他们想要的东西，而无需与伊朗打交道。
The United States could partner with other Arab countries to get what they wanted without having to deal with Iran.
所以请用简单的话解释一下，为什么特朗普现在认为这是攻击伊朗的最佳时机。
So explain to me in simple terms why Trump right now has decided that this is the best time to attack Iran.
我想先听听你的意见，安德鲁。
I wanna start with you, Andrew.
你对这个问题怎么看？
What's your point of view on that?
他动机的完整图景。
The full picture of what his motivations.
我认为你刚才提出的问题，是我们今天将要讨论的最有远见的问题。
I think the question that you just asked is the most prescient question that we will talk about today.
为什么？
Why?
为什么是现在？
Why now?
为什么是以这种方式传达的？
Why is it being communicated the way it's being communicated?
为什么是以这种方式执行的？
Why was it executed the way it was executed?
那么，为什么现在是最好的时机？
So why is now the best of all times?
坦白说，我不这么认为。
I frankly don't think it is.
我认为这只是被传达给世界和公众的叙事。
I think that's the narrative that's being communicated to the world and to the public.
唐纳德·特朗普攻击伊朗的行动，与国家情报总监办公室2005年威胁评估中对美国最可能威胁的判断相悖。
What Donald Trump did in attacking Iran goes against what the ODNI report assessed for the most likely threats against The United States in the ODNI's 2005 threat assessment.
这违背了国防部2026年国防战略，也违背了白宫的国家安全战略。
It goes against the Department of War's 2026 national defense strategy, and it goes against the White House's national security strategy.
这些大规模的、纲领性的、年度评估文件明确了美国如何保护国家安全，而对伊朗的攻击在优先级和行动上与这三份战略完全相悖。
These massive, doctrinal, annual assessments for how The United States will will protect national security, the attack against Iran goes contrary to all three of those in terms of priority and action.
那为什么是现在？
So why now?
为什么我们要以这种方式来做？
Why the way that we've done it?
我无法用任何合乎逻辑的方式回答这个问题。
I can't answer it in any kind of logical way.
非逻辑的答案是什么？
What's the non logical answer?
这是一种转移注意力的手段。
It's a distraction.
这是对以色列施加的国际压力。
It's international pressure with Israel.
这是一连串失败之后的一次低成本胜利。
It's a cheap win after a series of losses.
这是在他意识到唐纳德·特朗普及其政党将在今年中期选举中失去众议院控制权之前的一次孤注一掷吗？
It's a last ditch effort before he understands that Donald Trump and his party will lose control of the House in the midterms this year?
我有一点不同的看法，可以讲讲吗？
I have a little bit of a different take, shall I?
我认为当前的政府是完全自上而下运作的。
I believe the current administration is led as a completely top down situation.
换句话说，就是总统独断专行。
In other words, like sole presidential authority.
这位现任总统非常沉迷于权力、能力与效率。
This current president is very enraptured with power and with prowess, with effectiveness.
在马杜罗之后，甚至可能在墨西哥的贩毒集团头目之后，我认为这位现任总统看到了一个无疑已经酝酿已久的脆弱时刻。
And on the heels of Maduro and maybe even the cartel leader in Mexico, I believe that the current president saw a moment of of intense weakness that had been building, no doubt.
总的来说，从像我这样的人的理论视角来看，斩首打击是最彻底的打击。
And in warring in general, when when looking at it theoretically like someone like myself, the decapitation strike is the ultimate strike.
这简直就像字面上说的那样，当你砍掉蛇头的时候。
It's literally like it sounds when you can it comes from cut off the head of the snake.
而这正是刚刚发生的事情。
And that is exactly what just happened.
为什么？
Why?
可是，为什么呢？
Why, though?
他为什么这么做？
Why did he do that?
好吧，我不能告诉你为什么，但我可以告诉你我们都知道这件事发生了。
Well, I cannot tell you why, but I can tell you what we all know that this happened.
所以，如果你逆向推演这件事的发生，我认为只有一个结论，那就是我认为现任总统想要这么做，并且一直在等待时机——而其中最了不起的部分是情报的获取。
So, if you reverse engineer what happened, I think it become there's only one conclusion, which is that I would think the current president wanted to do this and was waiting till he had the intelligent the good and the intelligence part of it is beyond remarkable.
想想看，中情局、国家安全局，还有可能包括国防情报局和国家地理空间情报局，这些众多的情报机构是如何在那个精确的时刻，将情报传递给总统，完成这次打击，一举斩断自1979年以来掌权的领导层的。
Like, how the CIA and NSA and, you know, probably DIA and NGA, all of these intelligence agencies, of which there are many, not just the CIA, were able to get that information to the president in that exact moment and make that strike and decapitate the leadership that has been in power since 1979.
当人们讨论这里的动机时，特朗普经常以核武器为由，称他不希望伊朗获得核武器。
When they talk about the motives here, Trump will often cite nuclear weapons as the motive, saying he didn't want, Iran to get nuclear weapons.
在你看来，这真的是这里发生的情况吗？
Is is that what's going on here in your point of
观点？
view?
美国国家情报总监办公室（ODNI）于今年三月发布的2025年国家威胁评估报告（不到一年前）明确指出，伊朗不太可能致力于核浓缩或核武器的研发。
The twenty twenty five National Threat Assessment that was produced by the ODNI in March, so less than a year old, specifically says that Iran was unlikely to pursue the development of nuclear enrichment or nuclear weapons.
这是ODNI的评估结果。
That was the assessment of the ODNI.
相反，他们主要担忧的是伊朗会将资源集中于生物和化学武器的研究。
And that instead, their primary concern was that Iran was going to focus resources into the research of biological and chemical weapons.
因此，在2025年3月，ODNI——所有情报机构的评估——指出伊朗并未在研发核武器。
So the fact that in March 2025, the ODNI, the assessment of all intelligence agencies, said Iran is not working on a nuclear weapon.
而在同年六月，我们使用钻地炸弹袭击了福尔多，进一步摧毁了伊朗的核浓缩能力及其整个项目之后，我们却有两份文件表明他们并未在研发核武器。
And then after the strike in June of the same year where we dropped Bunker Busters and Fordo, further obliterating their nuclear enrichment capability and obliterating their program, we have two documents that say they're not developing it.
我们还有另一系列的袭击，表明它已经被彻底摧毁了。
We have another series of attacks that says it's obliterated.
然而我们仍然说，我们需要因为大规模杀伤性武器而攻击伊朗。
And yet we're still saying that we need to attack Iran because of WMD.
我们以前听过这个说法。
We've heard that story before.
我们听过这种说法，即大规模杀伤性武器是正当理由，对大规模杀伤性武器的担忧是发动战争的正当理由，这正是我们在1992年入侵伊拉克时的情况。
We've heard that WMD is a justice that the concern of WMD is a just cause for war, and that was when we invaded Iraq in 1992.
那么，你认为真正的动机是什么？
So what do you think the real motivation there is, therefore, is?
这与安妮所说的非常相似，即我们目前的政府正处于总统下台的状态。
It's very similar to what Annie is saying, that that we have a current administration that is president down.
如果你阅读官方文件，你会发现，当你读到国防部的《国家安全战略》时，出现频率最高的词就是唐纳德·特朗普。
It's fascinating if you read the official documentation because when you read the Department of War's National Security Strategy, what you hear more than any other word is Donald Trump.
我们的总统唐纳德·特朗普正带领美国前进，我们的总统唐纳德·特朗普，伟大的唐纳德·特朗普。
Our President Donald Trump is leading America through our president Donald Trump, the great Donald Trump.
这简直太不可思议了。
Like, it's incredible.
当你听到马可·卢比奥或皮特·海格塞斯的演讲时，你听到最多的词是什么？
When you hear the speeches that come out of Marco Rubio's mouth or Pete Hegseth's mouth, what do you hear more than any other term?
你听到的都是总统的名字。
You hear the name of the president.
通常，你会听到‘我们’、‘政府’或‘这一届政府’这样的词。
Usually, you hear we or the government or this administration.
这并不是围绕着某个人。
It's not around a personality.
所以这是一个非常有趣的情况，因为这里牵涉到太多个人因素，围绕总统职位的每个人都在那里，仅仅是因为他们尊重、迎合中心人物的个人魅力。
So it's a very interesting situation because there's so much of a person at stake here, and everybody surrounding the office of the president is only there because they are respecting, kissing the ring, of the personality in the center.
我想再补充一点，如果可以的话。
And I'm going to add to that further just for a moment, if I may.
因为关于这一点，关键在于，如果我观看现任总统的演讲，试图从中发现一些东西。
Because on that point, the button on that is that if I watch the current president's speeches to sort of you know, discern things.
你常常能在那里直接找到答案。
And you can often see, get your answer right there.
在其中一场演讲中，无论是今天早上还是昨天，他提到阿亚图拉曾试图暗杀他。
And in one of the speeches, either this morning or yesterday, he mentioned that the Ayatollah tried to kill him.
对我来说，这就像以牙还牙。
And it's, to me, it's like, oh, that's the tit for tat.
你知道，这要么是自上而下的，或者说像是小学生在沙坑里的行为。
You know, again, top down, or you could say schoolboy sandbox.
我说这话是因为我有两个儿子。
I say that as the mother of two boys.
你知道，这种人类行为完全偏离了常态，比如情报报告和评估，以及那些可能有效也可能无效的长篇论文。
You know, this human behavior that is way outside the norm of, you know, intelligence reports and assessments and these long monographs that may or may not actually be effective.
我的意思是，过去四十年里最大的意外——柏林墙倒塌和9·11事件——都没有被任何情报报告预见。
I mean, you know, the biggest surprises of the past forty years, the Berlin Wall falling and nineeleven, were completely unseen by any intelligence report.
因此，有人认为这些情报报告和抛硬币猜结果差不多。
So, there is an argument that those intelligence reports are as good as a coin toss.
所以我们想谈谈这一点，因为伊斯兰共和国的存在，正是美国情报机构未能在1976年、1977年及时察觉这一威胁，未能告知当时的卡特总统采取必要措施支持沙阿并消除这一威胁的直接结果。
So, want to come to that point because the very fact that we have an Islamic Republic is a direct result of the failure of American intelligence to see that threat as early as 1976, 'seventy seven, a failure to inform then President Carter to take the necessary steps to support the shah and to neutralize that threat.
因此，过去四十年到五十年间，美国在伊朗的情报工作和外交策略表现可谓惨不忍睹。
So United States track record in Iran for the last forty or fifty years is abysmal when it comes to intelligence, and when it comes to statecraft.
首先，有这样一段历史遗产。
And so there's that legacy, number one.
其次，2023年10月7日，哈马斯对以色列的袭击彻底改变了局势。
Number two, 10/07/2023, the Hamas attack against Israel changed the dynamic entirely.
这次袭击让以色列情报机构措手不及。
That attack surprised Israeli intelligence.
也让美国人感到震惊。
It surprised Americans.
几乎所有关注此事的人都没想到。
It surprised almost anybody watching.
没人料到哈马斯会在那时、以这种方式发动袭击。
Nobody thought Hamas was going to do that when they did it and the means in which they did it.
因此，这一切突然迫使我们重新评估当前的利害关系和可能发生的后果。
So all of a sudden, that forced a recalibration, a recalculation of what's at stake, what could happen.
如果我们等到威胁迫在眉睫、看到门口的明确信号时才行动，那就太晚了。
If we wait for an imminent threat till we see actually the sign outside the door, it's too late.
所以，从总统的角度来看，回答你最初的问题：为什么现在？
So from the president's perspective, to answer your original question, why now?
为什么要这么做？
Why do this?
我认为十月的行动并非完全出于以色列的请求。
I believe the October and it's not at the behest of Israel necessarily.
核心理念是：我们知道，伊朗资助哈马斯、补贴哈马斯、训练哈马斯、装备哈马斯，并在多个层面提供后勤支持，使哈马斯能够维持其原有状态， Hezbollah也是如此。
It's the idea that Iran, we know, finances Hamas, subsidizes Hamas, trains Hamas, equips Hamas, provides logistical support of on on many levels so that Hamas can be what it was, and Hezbollah also.
因此，你有这些在中东制造混乱、破坏稳定的非国家行为体，引发动荡与无序。
So you have these destabilizing nonstate groups in The Middle East wreaking havoc, destabilizing, causing causing chaos.
你是美国。
You're The United States.
你还要应对一个处于核门槛的国家。
You're also dealing with a nuclear threshold state.
因此，伊朗可能拥有也可能没有核武器计划，但它们已经超过了《不扩散核武器条约》允许的20%浓缩度。
So Iran may or may not have a nuclear weapons program, but they exceeded the 20% enrichment that they were allowed to do under the non nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
它们违反了国际原子能机构的保障措施。
They they violated IAEA safeguards.
它们撒了谎。
They they lied.
所以把这些因素综合起来看。
So you take all of this together.
这是一个不可信赖的政权，它高呼‘打倒美国’，这比萨达姆·侯赛因说过的话还要极端，并且它资助的组织曾造成比世界上任何其他国家或非国家行为体都更多的恐怖袭击，夺走了更多美国人的生命，直到9·11之前都是如此。
This is a regime that can't be trusted that chants death to America, which is more than Saddam Hussein ever did, and is funding groups that had a risk that up until 09/11, Iran was behind more acts of terror that cost American lives than any other state or nonstate group in the world.
9·11事件改变了这一局面，但在那之前，海军陆战队军营爆炸案、二十世纪八十年代在欧洲的恐怖袭击、美国驻南美大使馆遇袭事件等等。
Nine eleven changed that, but up until that, the marine barracks bombing, in in the nineteen eighties, terrorist attacks throughout Europe, South US US embassy.
确实如此。
Absolutely.
科尔号驱逐舰。
The USS Cole.
对吧？
Right?
因此，从总统的角度来看，自伊朗扣押我们的人质以来，我们就一直处于与伊朗的战争状态，而他们从未为此付出代价。
So this is we've we've been at war from the president's perspective with Iran since they took our hostages for which they've never atoned for.
他们从未被追究责任。
They've never been held to account for.
所以，如果你将这一计算与后10月7日的世界、一个核门槛国家结合起来，去年六月那场持续六到十二天的战争所改变的是，它创造了一个机会。
So if you take that calculus and then now we're in a post October 7 world with a nuclear threshold state, what happened that changed was last year's six day a twelve day war in June created an opportunity.
它削弱了伊朗及其代理人真主党和哈马斯。
It weakened Iran enough and its proxies, Hezbollah Hamas, weakened.
如果有机会最终解决这个四十七年的冲突，这就是时机。
If there's an opportunity to finally address this forty seven year old conflict, this was the window to do it.
这就是为什么我相信，无论对错，总统在那时采取了行动。
That is why I believe, rightly or wrongly, the president took the action when he did.
这并不意味着它是最好的时机，而我们被告知的是，这是最后的最佳时机。
That doesn't make it the best window, And that's what we're being told is that it was the last best window.
我不认为这是最后的最佳时机，但它确实是一个时机，至少我同意这一点。
I don't think it was the last best window, but it was a window or at least I agree.
从他们的角度来看，这确实是一个时机。
From their perspective, it was it was a window.
所有人都被削弱了。
You've got everyone weakened.
这个政权的受欢迎程度比以往任何时候都更低。
You've got the the regime less popular than it's ever been.
我的意思是，我们看到了一月份的抗议活动，导致了你知道的那场大屠杀，据称有一万多人在一月份丧生。
I mean, we saw the protests in January that led to the the, you know, the the bloodbath that, you know, upwards of 30,000 people killed on January.
这个政权正处于其最低谷，无论是在国内公信力、软实力，还是利用代理人实现其意志的能力方面。
This was you know, this this regime is at its lowest lowest point both in terms of domestic credibility and soft power and ability to to use proxies to carry out its will.
为什么不现在就打击它呢？这就是他们的逻辑。
Why not strike it now would be the logic.
我的意思是，我可以列出很多你不该动手的理由。
I mean, I can give lots of reasons why you wouldn't strike it.
这违反了国际法。
It's it's it's violating international law.
这树立了一个危险的先例。
It sets a dangerous precedent.
它会造成不稳定。
It creates instability.
有美国人、阿联酋人、沙特人丧生。
There are Americans dead, Emiratis dead, Saudis dead.
为了什么？
For what?
为了一个本身就已经濒临死亡的东西。
For for for something that was already on the precipice of dying itself.
它已经衰败了四十年，所以
It's been dying for forty years So
为什么不让它顺其自然呢？
why not let it run its course?
因为这还会造成什么更大的伤害呢？
Because because what more damage is it going to do?
我们还能看到多少个10月7日？
What more October 7 can we see?
arguably 比已经发生过的任何事都要少。
Arguably less than anything that's already been done.
所以采取行动就像是在狗造成所有伤害之后，把它处决掉。
So it's like taking action on it's like putting down the dead dog after it's done all of its damage.
嗯，你不能对那些在今年1月刚刚被政权杀害的三万多人的家属说，这是一条死狗，我认为他们会不同意。
Well, I don't think that you could say to the families of the 30,000 some people who were murdered by the regime just earlier, you know, in January I that it's a dead don't I think they would disagree.
这是他们的国家。
It's their country.
这是他们的人民。
It's their people.
这是他们的决定。
It's their decision.
这是他们的
It's their
我并不认为自己在说所发生的事是正确的，但我认同那些事实。
I'm right to not self saying it's correct, what was done.
我只是简单地陈述那些事实，我完全同意：这一虚弱的状况被该政府视为发动攻击的时机。
I'm just simply saying the facts of that, which I agree with unilaterally, that the weakened situation was perceived by this administration as the moment to strike.
同意。
Agreed.
事情已经发生了。
And what is done is done.
同意。
Agreed.
所以，对我来说更有趣的是，观察美国是如何应对这一情况的。
And so, I think what's more interesting to me is, you know, observing how America is dealing with this.
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我的意思是，我们美国正面临自己的危机，一场严重的危机。
I mean, we are in our own crisis, America, our own serious crisis.
世界上还有其他危机，尤其是这个地区。
And there are crises around the world, particularly in this area.
如果没有水晶球，我们谁也无法预知未来。
And without having a crystal ball, none of us know.
我认为未来两周内将发生的事情将具有深远的意义。
And I think that what will happen in the next two weeks will be profoundly telling.
有趣的是，人们会说，这是个正确的决定，或者这是个错误的决定，而这种说法本身就很荒谬，因为你的观点是正确的。
Interestingly, people will say, This was a good move, or This was a bad move, which in and of itself is a bizarre theater because your point is correct.
你知道，美国正在一个并非……的地方采取行动。
You've got, you know, America taking action in a place that's not
那是一个主权国家。
That's a sovereign country.
是的。
Yes.
说到你的观点，你所指的是，几十年来的威胁如今已经不复存在。
And to your point, you've got, you know, decades of a menace that is now off the table.
我不同意这个说法。
Would disagree with that.
没错。
Exactly.
我们或许不会。
We don't Maybe.
是的。
Yes.
最糟糕的是，在此之前，伊朗与俄罗斯、中国以及其他成功抗衡美国全球影响力国家的关系，比以往任何时候都更加紧密。
And the worst part is that in the lead up to this, Iran's relationship with Russia and China and other countries that are successfully countering American influence worldwide had grown closer than ever before.
我认为他们只是见风使舵的朋友，随时可能背弃他们。
I think they're fair weather friends that just turn on them in a second.
你担心的是什么
What are you concerned about,
所以这里有好几件事。
So there's a number of things here.
首先，委内瑞拉的马杜罗在不到六十天前被推翻，而现在又发生了领导人被暗杀的事件。
So first of all, with the removal of Maduro in Venezuela, which happened less than sixty days ago, and now the killing, the assassination of a leader.
这是对政权的斩首行动。
The decapitation of the regime.
这不就是你们当初对付马杜罗时做的同样的事吗？
Which was the same thing you did here when you rendered Maduro, right?
这是一次斩首行动。
It's a decapitation
这不一样。
That's of the different.
我认为，如果你只是把人带走，那并没有杀掉他们。
I would say if you're going to extract someone, you haven't killed them.
所以这不算斩首。
So that's not decapitation.
这基本上就是换掉首席执行官。
That's basically swapping out the CEO.
这是在彻底重组公司。
This is completely reforming the company.
我同意这一点。
I agree with that.
因为它们是不同的国家，运作方式也不同。
Because they were different countries, they operated in different ways.
但当你攻击领导层、攻击国家元首时，这受到国际法的保护。
But when you attack the leadership, when you attack the head of state, that is protected under international law.
因为当你这么做时，你就打开了大门，让
Because because when you do that, you open the gates for
每个人。
everyone.
当然。
Of course.
那么，你担忧的核心到底是什么？
So what is it what is at the heart of your concern?
因为听起来你是在说，现在采取这个行动时机并不合适。
Because it sounds like you're saying that this wasn't the right time to do this.
那么，你预见到的非预期后果有哪些？
And and so what are the unintended consequences that you're foreseeing?
美国所做的每一个决定都会产生多米诺效应。
So there is a domino effect that happens with every decision that The United States makes.
而如今，我们已经对一个主权国家采取了军事行动，这就为其他国家单方面决定何时对另一个主权国家采取行动打开了大门。
And now that we have essentially taken this military action against a sovereign country, it opens the door for all sorts of other countries to just unilaterally choose when they're going to take action against another sovereign.
我们为更多流氓国家创造了更多机会，这相当于对国际社会的更大背弃，破坏了我们的全球贸易、经济和人身安全意识。
We have created more opportunity for more rogue nations, which is a greater abandonment of an international community, which destabilizes our global trade, our economics, our sense of personal security.
如今，美国人的安全状况比四天前更差了。
The Americans are less secure now than they were four days ago.
他们现在比四天前更易成为目标。
They are targeted now more than they were four days ago.
如果我们得出结论，必须先让情况变得更糟才能好转，那或许我们可以就此展开讨论和辩论。
And if we are coming to the conclusion that we need to make things worse before we can make things better, that's a conversation I guess we can have, debate we can have.
但面对我们国内的危机、存在的种种担忧以及所宣称的优先事项，
But with the crisis that we have here at home, with the concerns that exist, with the stated priorities
国内有什么危机？
What crisis here at home?
我们国内正面临经济危机、移民危机。
We have an economic crisis here at home, an immigration crisis here at home.
我们国内还存在政治危机，比如美国
We have a crisis of politics here at home, like The United
美国只是会说，国内正陷入部落式的战争。
I States is would just say it's tribal warfare here at home.
我的意思是，我一直在看，情况非常、非常糟糕。
Mean, I watch it, it's just very, Keep very, very going.
不，不，不。
No, no, no.
现在我们更是加剧了这种情况。
Now we have just exacerbated that even more.
我们还通过一个中东盟友进一步加剧了这一情况，该盟友刚刚对加沙实施了历史上最具破坏性的袭击之一。
And we've exacerbated that more with an ally in the Middle East that just got done carrying out one of the most destructive attacks in history against Gaza.
你提到了一件事。
You you brought up something.
你谈到主权问题，特别是关于1月8日针对抗议者的暴力行为。
You talk about sovereignty, with regards to the January 8, the violence committed against the protesters.
你说这基本上是他们人民的自决权。
You said that that basically it's their own people's self determination.
国际社会该如何应对国家对其本国人民的暴力行为？
How how does the international community deal with acts of state violence against its own people?
我们有一个词来形容这种情况，叫做内部冲突。
That's so we have a a word for that, and it's called intrastate conflicts.
好吧。
Okay.
国家内部的冲突，也就是内战。
Conflict inside of a state, a civil war.
对。
Right.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
国际社会没有责任介入内战。
The international community has no responsibility for stepping into a civil war.
这是一个非常好的观点。
So that was this is a great point.
这正是二战结束时四大盟国在筹备纽伦堡审判时所面临的争论。
This is the debate that the that the four allied powers had at the end of World War two when they were convening the Nuremberg trials.
当时有一种观点认为，我们没有法律来规范一个国家或政权如何对待其主权范围内的民众。
You had this idea that we don't have laws to account for how a country or state treats people within its own sovereign borders.
意思是，德国可以在德国本土做它想做的事。
The idea is that Germany could do what Germany did within Germany proper.
别管被占领的德国了。
Forget about occupied Germany.
在自己的国境之内，它可以随意虐待任何人，因为那是德国的法律。
Within its own borders, it could mistreat anybody because that was German law.
推动这一观点的是，我们不想再生活在一个这样的世界里。
And the push was that that's not the world we wanna live in anymore.
我们想要生活在一个国家不能再这样对待人民的世界中。
We wanna live in a world where, basically, nations cannot do that to people.
正是在这种背景下，纽伦堡审判的依据诞生了，我们也由此确立了战争罪、侵略罪、种族灭绝罪等国际法。
And that's where the basis of the Nuremberg tribunals came, and that's where we got international law of war crimes, crimes of aggression, genocide, so on and so forth.
所以，意思是仅仅因为伊朗是主权国家，我们就袖手旁观，任由他们这样做。
So the idea is that just because Iran is sovereign, we we sit back and allow them to do that.
这并不是内战，因为一方拿着刀、砍刀、突击步枪作战。
It's it wasn't a civil war because one side was fighting with with with knives, machetes, assault rifles.
另一方却只有勺子、木棍之类的玩意儿。
The other side had spoons, wooden you know, I mean, that kind of thing.
对吧？
Right?
这太不平衡了。
It was so lopsided.
这是一场严重的虐待和不对称的战斗。
It was such an abuse and asymmetric battle.
在克林顿政府时期，我们选择不加入国际刑事法院。
Under the Clinton administration, we chose to not be part of the International Criminal Court.
我们退出了你所谈论的同一项结论。
We pulled ourselves out of the very same conclusion that you're talking about.
是的。
Yeah.
但纽伦堡审判之外，还有国际法院。
But Nuremberg was not but there's also the ICJ.
有一个独立于国际刑事法院和《罗马规约》的联合国框架。
There's a UN framework that's independent from the ICC and the Rome Treaty.
所以我要说的是，我们确实有国际法来规范国家对其本国人民的行为。
So all I'm saying is we do have international law that addresses what nations can do to their own people.
我们攻击一国元首，违反了国际法。
And we violated international law by attacking a head of state.
这没有任何连续性。
There's no continuity.
这没有任何一致性。
There's no consistency.
我们选择做我们想做的事。
We choose to do what we choose to do.
我们选择支持我们想支持的东西。
We choose to support what we choose to support.
我们选择抛弃我们想抛弃的东西。
And we choose to abandon what we choose to abandon.
在这样一个世界里，你如何理解这一切？
And how do you make sense in a world like that?
你怎么预测未来？
How do you predict the future?
你怎么可能养育一个家庭？
How do you manage even raising a family?
你怎么知道哪里可以去旅行？
How do you know where you can travel?
你怎么决定投资？
How do you decide on investments?
你做不到
You can't
这是个很好的观点。
That is a great point.
我认为这里需要指出的是，国际法缺乏执行力，这完全是胜者正义，主导力量基本上随心所欲地行事。
And I think that's a, you know, that's a point to be made here is that there's an absence of the enforcement of law internationally, and it's victor's justice, and the dominant will essentially exercise whatever will they want.
法律算什么。
The law be damned.
你觉得
Do you think
这是否与特朗普的动机有关，特别是与他的个人遗产相关？
this is part of Trump's what his motivations are linked to his personal legacy?
我经常这么说，因为我认为有时你必须追踪激励结构，尤其是对于一位无法连任、却多次提及希望获得诺贝尔和平奖的总统——尽管他可能从未直接说过这一点。
And I say this a lot because I think sometimes you gotta kinda follow the incentive structure, especially if a president that can't be reelected, who has talked a lot about wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, although he's probably never said it directly.
而且你几乎可以看出，特朗普正在提前考虑自己的遗产，而一个人的遗产将由你发动的战争、你清除的人、委内瑞拉局势决定，经济对他来说似乎也极其重要。
And you it almost looks like a Trump that's thinking about his legacy ahead of time, and one's legacy is gonna be determined by, like, the wars you you start, the people you take out, the Venezuela situation, the economies seems to be really important to him.
你觉得他的动机更多是出于个人遗产，而不是像其他人那样？
Do you think this is he he's motivated more so by his legacy than, say, someone else?
我相信我们正处在一个前所未有的局面，我真希望我是错的。
I do believe that we are in a position where this is the first president we've ever had, and I would love to be wrong.
请反驳我的观点。
Please disagree with me on this.
但我认为，这是第一位更关注个人遗产而非职业或政治遗产的总统。
But I think this is the first president we've ever had that's more focused on personal legacy than professional or political legacy.
我认为他更在意的是唐纳德·特朗普这个名字、特朗普的财富以及特朗普的未来，而不是他作为美国总统在今后美国存在的整个历史中被印在儿童书签上的形象。
I think he's thinking about Donald Trump and the name Trump and the Trump fortune and the Trump future more than he's thinking about the image of him on children's bookmarks as a president of The United States for the rest of the existence of The United States.
我希望我是错的，但我感觉他并不是被国家或服务精神所驱动的。
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't feel like he's motivated by country, by service.
他本应是
He is supposed to be
这不是国家至上、政党次之、国家最后，而是品牌至上。
It's a public not country over party over country.
这是特朗普品牌高于国家利益。
It's brand over country, the Trump brand.
我同意这一点。
I would agree with that.
是的。
Yeah.
我从未见过哪位总统会说，哦，我可能会拿下格陵兰，可能会去委内瑞拉。
I've never had a president talking about, oh, I might take Greenland, might might go to Venezuela.
他自认为是个谈判高手。
He he fancies himself a dealmaker.
他想要一枚诺贝尔和平奖。
He wants a Nobel Peace Prize.
他为自己结束的战争和解决的冲突数量而自豪。
He he prides himself on the number of wars that he's he's he's he's, ended, conflicts that he solved.
我认为，理想情况下，他希望伊朗能达成外交解决方案。
I think, ideally, he would have wanted Iran to end up with a diplomatic solution.
他带去了条件。
He came with terms.
我不认为战争是他首选的选项。
I don't think war was a preferred option.
我认为，如果能达成一项协议，让一切大致维持现状，他会更开心。
I think he would be much happier if there was an agreement that, you know, allowed everything to kinda stay in place.
伊朗遵守核限制、导弹限制和代理限制，然后在德黑兰建一座特朗普赌场。
Iran would abide by nuclear restrictions, missile restrictions, proxy restrictions, and then a Trump casino gets built in, you know, Tehran.
那会让他感到开心。
That would have made him happy.
因为，是的，这关乎个人利益。
Because, yeah, that is about the personal.
这关乎品牌形象。
That is about the brand.
他还认为这有利于美国，有利于美国在该地区的全球伙伴。
That it's also he sees that as benefiting The United States, benefiting, The US' global partners in the region.
但我觉得，很多这些举措都是出于个人动机。
So but but I think a lot of this is personally driven.
我同意。
I I I would agree.
我也觉得非常有趣，我们的英国首相基尔斯塔玛事先并没有被问及这些事情。
I also find it quite fascinating that our prime minister in The UK, Kirstjarma, is not being asked about any of this stuff ahead of time.
我认为，如果我们回溯几十年，英国和美国曾是盟友。
I think if we we go back a couple of decades, The UK and The US were allies.
现在看起来，美国似乎在世界上独自行动。
Now it seems like The US is kind of acting as a lone force in the world.
这很有趣，因为你知道，我在袭击发生后看了基尔斯玛的发言，他显然完全不知道会发生什么。
And it's funny because, you know, I watched Kierst Arma come out after the attacks have happened, and he clearly had no idea what was gonna happen.
委内瑞拉也是如此。
Same in Venezuela.
在过去，你们会提前向我们通报情况。
Once upon a time, you would have briefed us.
总统曾就使用迭戈加西亚和其他基地一事去找过首相，如果我没记错的话，被拒绝了。
The president did go to the prime minister about, I think, using Diego Garcia in other bases, and was turned down, if I'm not mistaken.
对吧？
Right?
所以当时显然有人意识到有什么计划正在酝酿，而首相表示英国政府不会参与任何此类行动。
That that so there was some awareness that something was being planned, and and the prime minister said that the that the UK government would have no part in any of that.
这里到底发生了什么？
What's going on here?
从宏观角度看，我们曾经熟知的这个世界秩序正在衰落，那时并不仅仅是美国为所欲为，其他国家还会被通报或征求意见？
What's the the macro picture of in terms of the declining world order that we once knew, where we had it wasn't just United States running around doing whatever they liked and other people might be briefed or asked?
我的意思是，我更关注结果，然后回溯我们是如何走到这一步的。
I mean, I'm interested in looking at outcome, you know, and then kind of looking backwards at how we got there.
我也非常关注美国的分裂状况，因为我确实认为这是最大的弱点。
And I'm also very interested in how divided America is because I really do see it as the greatest weakness.
所以，你可以说说刚才发生的事展现了实力，但如果你在国内极度脆弱，那么——我并不是说真会发生真主党恐怖分子被激活的情况，那可能发生，也可能不会。
So, you can show strength in what just happened, but if you are extremely vulnerable at home, then and I'm not talking necessarily about Hezbollah terrorist cells being activated, which may or may not happen.
我只是在说美国两党之间的政治对抗。
I'm just talking about the clash of political parties in The United States.
为此，我常常回顾过去。
And to that end, I often look at the past.
你提到友好关系和我们的盟友，我忍不住要看反对党对当前这一行动的反应，不管好坏，他们都在提及伊拉克战争，以及我们是如何拉拢盟友的。
We're talking about you mentioned being friendly and having our allies, I can't help but look at the reaction of the opposing party right now at this action, for better or for worse, but bringing up the Iraq War and talking about how we got our allies involved.
我们曾去国会寻求支持。
We went to Congress.
作为一名历史学家，我忍不住想，等等，伊拉克战争是建立在错误的情报之上的。
And I, as a historian, can't help but think, but wait a minute, the Iraq War was built on faulty intelligence.
伊拉克战争让我们陷入了长达二十年的绝对苦难，该地区许多人丧生，更多问题随之蔓延。
The Iraq War led us into a twenty year absolute misery with so many people in this area killed and so many more problems metastasizing as a result.
因此，选择性地判断哪些有效、哪些无效，在我看来，和我们当前所处的局势一样危险。
And so, to be selective about what works and what doesn't work is, to me, as dangerous as a situation as we are in now.
我知道这稍微偏离了直接回答你关于为什么这么做、以及这究竟是好是坏的问题。
And I know that's a little bit skirting away from giving you an answer as to why what was done was done or whether it's a good idea or a bad idea.
但这对我来说非常有趣，因为我作为中央情报局历史方面的专家，看到这些行动自二战结束以来都是由总统权力主导的。
It just simply is very interesting to me because I can't help but see, you know, being a subject matter expert on the history of the CIA in particular, I see these actions where it is presidential authority driven since the end of World War II.
在我看来，这次行动正是如此。
And to me, that's what this action looks like.
所以我们正处在一个新时代，这让我感到有趣——美国总统可以实质上采取本应属于历史上秘密行动的操作。
So, we're in the new era where we are in, which I find interesting, is where the President of The United States can essentially take what would historically be a covert action operation.
你甚至根本不会知道它的存在。
You wouldn't even know about it.
这正是这个想法。
That would be the idea.
相反，他将其宣布为军事项目，从而合并了《第十篇》和《第十五篇》的法律授权。
Instead, announcing it as a military program, so he's merging the legal authorities of Title X and Title XV.
那是什么？
What's that?
当然，美国普通民众并不会想：等等，不对劲。
And, of course, the average person in The United States isn't like, oh, wait a minute.
他合并这些授权是因为
He's merging those authorities because
《第十篇》和《第十五篇》具体是指什么？
What is the what are the Title X and Title XV?
《第十篇》规定军队必须遵守某些战争法规则
Well, Title X is the military must follow certain laws of
战争。
war.
好的。
Okay.
好的？
Okay?
而第十五章规定，如果总统认定这是国家安全威胁，他可以动用中央情报局的准军事力量——也就是从军队中挑选顶尖特种部队人员，摘掉他们的军衔标识，换上非军事服装，派他们去执行军事性质的任务。
And Title XV says if the president decides it is a national security threat, he can use the CIA's paramilitary, that is an actual military force they sheep dip tier one operators over from the military and take the patches off their shoulders, put them in nonmilitary clothing, and send them out to do military type work.
所以他想怎么用军队就怎么用？
So he's using the military how he wants to use them?
是的。
Yes.
他确实拥有这项权力。
He that's has that right.
作为三军统帅和美国的最高行政长官，国防部，或者现在叫DOW，以及中央情报局，都隶属于行政分支。
As the commander in chief, as the chief executive of The United States, the DOD, or now the DOW, and CIA fall under the executive branch.
它们不属于立法分支。
They don't fall under the legislative branch.
它们也不属于司法分支。
They don't fall under the judicial branch.
因此，总统一直拥有采取此类行动和发布行政命令的权力。
So the president has, and always has, had the ability to take these types of actions and write executive orders.
这里真正不同的是，当我们谈论总统如何运用权力使用中情局时，我们所有人都忽略了、遗漏了一个关键点：中情局已经被严重削弱。
What's so different here is that while we're talking about CIA and CIA being used by the president in his exercise of authority, what we're all not talking about, what we're missing, is that CIA has been gutted.
这位总统在第一个任期内就曾与中情局开战。
This is the same president that went to war with CIA in his first term.
自那以后，中情局经历了大规模的人力缩减。
CIA has gone through massive attrition since then.
在他就任第一届总统期间，中情局的资金就被削减了。
They were defunded under his first presidency.
因此，拉特克利夫局长是使用最少、提及最少的局长。
So Director Ratcliffe is the least used director, the least referenced director.
你根本听不到关于他的任何消息。
You never hear about him.
他是中央情报局局长吗？
Is he the head of the CIA?
他是
He's the
中央情报局局长。
head of the CIA.
我担心的是，我2014年离开时，中央情报局就已经缺乏关于委内瑞拉和伊朗的情报了。
And what I am concerned about is that the CIA I left in 2014 was already missing intelligence on Venezuela and Iran.
从那以后，它变得更小了。
Since then, it's gotten smaller.
它被边缘化得更严重了。
It's gotten marginalized more.
它一直受到美国总统的敌视。
It's been treated hostilely by the US president.
而在2020年代初，我就开始听说，中央情报局所生产的情报中有65%来自外国盟友。
And the CIA that I had started hearing rumors about in the early 2020s, 65% of the intelligence that they were producing was coming from foreign allies.
他们确实具备了自行创建自己的能力
They did What have the ability to create their own
我还要说，遗憾的是，每一代中情局人员都对过去的中情局怀有怀旧之情，如果你回顾历史，就会发现他们都认为自己时代的中情局比现在的更好。
I would also say is that every CIA, sadly, has nostalgia for the former CIA, if you look at history, and believes that their CIA was better than the current CIA.
这正是人性使然
That's just the nature
我并不是在说它更好或更差。
of I'm not saying it was better or worse.
我只是想说，如今中情局所使用的情报，我认为我们总在谈论中情局，媒体也频频出现中情局的报道，但实际上它已经不再是
I'm just saying the intelligence that the CIA is using now, I would argue that we keep talking about CIA and you keep seeing CIA in the headlines, and it's actually not
中情局了。
the CIA.
等等。
But hang on.
等等。
But hang on.
据称，国家情报总监办公室——或者说，根据《纽约时报》的说法（这显然源自白宫）——是中情局提供了情报来撤销投降协议。
The ODNI didn't or at least according to, shall we say, The New York Times, which must have come from the White House, CIA provided the intelligence to take the capitulation away.
所以，是的，这是假的。
So there Yes, you it's fake.
我不认为这是真的。
I don't think that's real.
你不觉得那是一种掩护吗？
You don't think that is a shield.
关键是这样。
Here's the thing.
好吧。
All right.
中情局是，你怎么想，为什么基于
CIA is And how do you think why do based
中情局是中央情报局，这是其设计的本意。
on CIA is the central intelligence agency, which is by design.
这意味着，来自国防部内部及其他国家安全体系内其他机构的所有其他情报，都必须经过中央情报局。
It means that every other intelligence that comes from every other agency inside the DOD, inside the national security infrastructure, has to come through CIA.
只有中央情报局为总统制作最终的情报产品。
Only CIA produces the final product for the president.
因此，所有事情都归中央情报局负责。
So therefore, everything is CIA.
而中央情报局还负责维护与外国情报机构的对外关系。
Is And the one that's in charge of maintaining foreign relationships with foreign intelligence services.
所以当以色列有一份情报报告要与美国总统分享时，它必须经过中央情报局。
So when Israel has an intelligence report that they share with The US president, it goes through the CIA.
因此，所有的功劳和责任总是归于中央情报局。
So all credit and all blame always goes to CIA.
但这并不意味着中央情报局自己掌握了这些情报。
That doesn't mean CIA actually had the intelligence themselves.
那么你认为是谁掌握了这些情报？
So who do you think had the intelligence?
这为什么重要？
And why does this matter?
世界上对伊朗动态最了解的国家是以色列。
The number one most informed country in the world on the goings on in Iran is Israel.
你说我错了吗？
Tell me if I'm wrong.
没错。
No.
我同意
I would agree with
这一点。
that.
如果没有以色列的密切协调和极其重要的情报支持，美国根本不可能对伊朗发动攻击。
There's no way The United States would have been able to launch against Iran without close coordination and incredible intelligence support from Israel.
我不同意所有这些说法。
I'm And gonna disagree with all of that.
这有什么关系？
Why does it matter?
因为这意味着以色列可以通过选择提供给总统的情报来指导美国军队的行动。
Because it means that Israel could be directing the activities of the US military by the intelligence they select to give to the president.
所以我不会走这一步。
So I wouldn't take that step.
我不认为以色列垄断了所提供的情报。
I don't think Israel has a monopoly on intelligence provided.
我们知道，英国军情六处历史上也一直非常活跃且能力出众，可能比中情局还要强，很大程度上是因为英国政府在伊朗设有大使馆，拥有外交、贸易和经济联系。
We know that, MI six has also historically been very active and very capable, probably more so than CIA has been, and in large part because the British government has a embassy, has diplomatic ties, has trade and economic ties with Iran.
而且伊斯兰政权一直将英国视为通往美国的有效渠道或纽带，并有时利用这一点，比以往更有效地发挥作用。
And it's and the Islamic regime has seen The UK as a effective sort of pipeline or conduit to The United States and has used that in the sometimes, you know, to to better effect than before.
但我认为美国获取情报的来源还有很多。
But I I think that there's a I think there's sources of intelligence that The United States gets.
以色列确实有影响力，但我并不认为它是唯一的决定性因素，也不是那个起关键作用的唯一力量。
And Israel is influential, but I don't think it is the sole influencer or the one that pushes it over the edge one
要么
way or
另一种方式。
the other.
我不是说他们是唯一的，但说到伊朗，我认为我们在说同一件事，他们没有垄断，但他们是最主要的玩家。
I wasn't saying that they're the sole, but but when it came to Iran, and I think we're saying the same thing, they are they don't have the monopoly, but they have the They're the biggest game in town.
没错。
Exactly.
当涉及到了解伊朗发生的事情时。
When it comes to understanding what's happening in Iran.
我的意思是，我不同意，因为我认为，看看过去美国试图实施斩首行动并推动政权更迭的情况。
I mean, I'm going to disagree because I think that, okay, look at past situations where The United States attempted to do a decapitation strike and then have a regime change.
你可以看看伊拉克。
You can look at Iraq.
我们曾试图杀死萨达姆·侯赛因，失败了，然后爆发了一场灾难。
We tried to kill Saddam Hussein, failed, and then a disaster blows up.
利比亚试图刺杀卡扎菲，失败了，结果引发了一场灾难。
Libya tried to kill Qaddafi, fails, a disaster blows up.
伊朗试图刺杀或斩首政权，并且成功了。
Iran tries to kill the regime or decapitate the regime and succeeds.
所以，你是想说，你认为在其他情况下，情报来自中央情报局，而他们的情报并不出色。
So, are you saying that you believe that's because in the other situations, the intelligence was coming from the CIA who didn't have such great intelligence.
而在这次情况下，情报来自以色列，他们的情报确实出色？
And in this situation, the intelligence was coming from Israel, who did?
不。
No.
我说的是，伊朗的机会很大程度上与我们地区盟友提供的机会密切相关。
I'm saying that a big piece of the opportunity of Iran is tied to the opportunity that was presented to us by our allies in the region.
我不认为这仅仅是以色列的功劳。
I don't think it's just Israel.
沙特阿拉伯希望看到伊朗的终结。
Saudi Arabia wants to see the end of Iran.
阿联酋希望看到伊朗的终结。
UAE wants to see the end of Iran.
约旦希望看到伊朗的终结。
Jordan wants to see the end of Iran.
该地区有多个盟友都希望看到伊朗的终结。
There's multiple allies in the region that want to see the end of Iran.
但当谈到谁在伊朗境内拥有最持久、最可靠的人力情报网络时，我认为没有人能与之相提并论。
But when it came to who had the longest, most reliable human intelligence source network inside Iran, I don't think anybody came even close to comparing
以色列。
with Israel.
你说这是有选择性地使用，什么意思？
And you're saying that was used selectively, meaning?
因为所有与盟友共享的情报都是有选择性的。
Because all intelligence that's shared with an ally is selective.
的
Of
当然。
course.
我有十份。
I have 10 pieces.
我是把全部十份都给我的盟友，还是只给那三份我认为能让他们脱离X的？
Do I give all 10 pieces to my ally, or do I give just the three pieces that I think will move them off the X?
对。
Right.
他们确实指派了那20个人负责发现、定位和打击。
Well, they have had those 20 individuals tagged to do their find, fix, and finishing.
就这样。
Period.
完了。
End of story.
没有它，这事根本不可能发生。
It couldn't have happened without it.
我认为美国中央情报局会汇总所有这些情报，包括信号情报，也就是所有的情报来源，来掌握这些信息。
And I believe that The United States, the CIA, aggregates all that intelligence, SIGIGI, I mean, all the ints to know that.
我无法想象以色列怎么会比美国知道得更多。
I can't imagine how Israel knew that more than The United States.
我只是觉得，我就停在这里。
I just I that's where I
所以让我给你举个非常简单的例子，好吗？
was So let's just at my to give you a very quick example, right?
你完全正确，人们确实需要被标记。
You're 100% right that people have to be tagged.
当你标记一部手机时，我们就以手机为例吧。
When you tag a cell phone let's just say we're talking about cell phones.
手机会提供地理位置信息。
Cell phones give you a geolocation.
每个手机信号都会发送一个地理标签，但仅限于控制该手机的服务网络。
Every cell phone signal sends a geotag, but only on the service network that controls that phone.
美国无法接触到中东大多数服务提供商。
The United States doesn't have access to most of the service providers in The Middle East.
所以你必须先有人能与中东的服务提供商进行沟通，连接西方。
So you already have to have someone to interlocute the Middle Eastern service provider with the West.
而且除此之外，你还必须能够确认那个标识符，即那部手机，属于那个人。
And then on top of that, you then have to be able to identify that that selector, that cell phone, belongs to that person.
再说一遍，如果你认为美国如此强大，以至于掌握了全球每个国家每个人的手机，那现在是这样吗？
Again, if you think that The United States is so powerful it has every cell phone of every person around the country, around the world, they're now
我认为存在一种非电子形式的生物识别标记。
I think there's biometric tagging that is not necessarily electronic based.
所以你说的，我理解你的观点。
So you're saying that I appreciate your point of view.
关键是，根据我们所有的优先级列表，伊朗排在最末尾。
The point is that Iran, according to every prioritized list that we have, is on the low end of our priorities.
俄罗斯的优先级高于他们。
Russia's above them.
中国在他们之上。
China's above them.
墨西哥各地的贩毒集团也在他们之上。
The cartels across Mexico are above them.
所以，我们 somehow 对……拥有如此精准的情报
So somehow, we had such refined intelligence on
你的结论是什么，安德鲁？
What's your conclusion here, Andrew?
因为我觉得你的话还有后半部分没说完，像是你正指向某个结论，但……
Because I feel like there's a second half of your point that's missing, like a conclusion that you're pointing towards but
不就是你提到的所有目标中最容易得手的吗？
not saying Isn't it just the lowest of the hanging fruits of all the ones you mentioned also?
对。
Correct.
所以我的意思是，除非我们纯粹是受盟友驱使，为了某种其他利益——比如特朗普品牌自身的利益，或者美国正拼命抓住的某种霸权——否则我们采取这种行动毫无道理，因为我们意识到自己已经不再拥有那样的实力和影响力。
So what I'm saying is it doesn't make sense that we would take this action unless we are really just acting on the behest of our allies for some other kind of gain, a personal gain for the Trump brand, if you will, some sort of hegemony that The United States is desperately grasping for because we realize that we don't have that power and influence anymore.
由于这些行动以及我们在委内瑞拉采取的类似行动，我们现在反而增强了那些我们一直谴责其采取同样行为的世界上最恶劣政权的势力和正当性。
And as a result of these actions and actions like what we took in Venezuela, we have now empowered and validated some of the worst regimes in the world that we've always held accountable for taking the same kind of actions that we take.
那么，关于其他政权，你担心的是哪些？
And who are you concerned about as it relates to other regimes?
中国和俄罗斯。
China, Russia.
我认为，泽连斯基之所以没有被俄罗斯暗杀，很大一部分原因是因为那样做会跨越一条红线。
This Russia I believe that a big part of the reason that that Zelenskyy hasn't been assassinated by Russia is because that would be crossing a red line.
那样做会激怒欧洲和美国，因为你不能攻击国家领导人。
That would that would infuriate Europe and The United States because you don't attack world leaders.
而我们刚刚给了他们这样做的许可。
We just gave them permission to do so.
在台湾也是如此。
The same thing in Taiwan.
现在中国可以自由地在台湾暗杀一个人了。
We can now China has free rein to just assassinate one person in Taiwan.
然后这只是他们的情况。
And then that's just them.
我们甚至还没谈到巴基斯坦和印度。
We're not even talking about Pakistan and India.
我们不是在谈论亚洲其他任何地方正在发生的边界争端或非洲的军阀问题。
We're not talking about any of the border disputes that are happening anywhere else across Asia or warlords in Africa.
我们刚刚在全球范围内认可了这些非法、不人道、法外处理的程序。
We just validated these illegal, inhumane, extrajudicial processes all over the world.
所以与其他世界领导人不同，哈梅内伊的哲学、他的整个意识形态是建立在‘美国去死’以及其他一些敌对口号之上的。
So unlike these other world leaders, Khamenei was his his his philosophy, his entire ideology was was is built on death to America among death to other things.
你并没有其他世界领导人。
You don't have other world leaders.
台湾地区领导人并没有在喊‘中国去死’。
You don't have the president of Taiwan saying death to China.
泽连斯基甚至都没有说过‘俄罗斯去死’这样的话。
You don't have Zelensky even saying death to Russia.
他可能希望普京死掉，但他并不希望整个俄罗斯联邦灭亡。
He might want Putin dead, but he's not sort of he doesn't want the demise of the entire Russian Republic.
所以我认为，正是在这里，哈梅内伊与众不同，他的整个意识形态体系正是建立在对美国的颠覆与毁灭之上。
So I think this is where Khamenei stands apart, where it is it is a a a movement which became a system of government predicated on the demise and the destruction of of The United States.
有趣的是，如何
What's interesting How do
你如何反驳这一点？
you counter that?
是的。
Yeah.
关于‘与众不同’这个说法，我觉得可以想象成一个连续谱。
What interesting with the term stands apart is I was imagining therefore a spectrum.
一旦变成一个连续谱，它就变得有些主观了。
And the minute it becomes a spectrum, it becomes somewhat subjective.
所以，你知道，有人可能会说，我们认为他们想伤害我们。
So, you know, one might say, well, we think they wanted to hurt us.
以前在我小时候，每次看到这些战争，我都会想：他们为什么不去直接找那个人呢？他知道那个人住在哪里。
Whereas before in my head, when when I grew up, I always used to see these wars and go, why don't they just they know where the guy lives.
听起来可能像简化版的书本情节，但他们明明知道他在哪儿。
Like, I know that sounds like a simplified book, but they know where he is.
为什么他们不直接除掉他呢？
Why don't they just take him out?
但在我印象中，战争中这从来都是不可触碰的禁区。
And and it was always it always felt to me that that was off the table in War.
你不能仅仅因为不喜欢某个领导人，或者存在地缘政治分歧，就去暗杀他。
You can't just assassinate a leader because you don't like them or you're having a sort of geopolitical disagreement.
但就在过去一两年，我才开始想：也许现在真的可以自由行动，直接飞进去，趁他和妻子在床上时把他抓走——就像委内瑞拉发生的事那样。
And it's actually only in the last sort of year or two that I thought, okay, maybe it is free rein to just fly in and snatch someone out of bed with their wife, is what happened in Venezuela.
嗯。
Mhmm.
然后看到这种事，你可以直接在任何地方对他们投下炸弹，这确实让人不禁怀疑：也许现在这已经不再是禁忌了。
And then seeing this, that you can just drop a bomb on them wherever they are, it does kind of make you, you know, wonder, maybe this is now on the table.
我这一生中从未真正见过这样的事。
I've never really seen that in my lifetime.
我的意思是，我知道利比亚和伊拉克等地发生过一些事，但像这样把一位总理从床上连同妻子一起抓走，还拍下照片，天啊。
I mean, I know there were some things that went on Libya and and Iraq and so on, but to snatch a prime minister out of bed with his wife and fly him over and with photos of, I wow.
这是一种全新的地缘政治行动。
This is this is a new type of, geopolitical action.
这就是我们的国务卿所称的美国的黄金时代。
It's what the it's what our secretary of state is calling the golden era of The United States.
旧世界已经消失了。
The old world is gone.
这是自由世界代表所宣扬并传播的叙事。
This is the narrative coming out and being spread by the representation of the free world.
法国的马克龙今天早上刚表示，要想自由，就必须让人畏惧。
France, their Macron just this morning stated that to be free, you must be feared.
这就是我们正在创造的世界吗？
This is the world that we're creating?
美国去死？
Death to America?
猜猜我有多在乎这个？
Guess how much I care about that?
猜猜我有多在乎一个贫穷、破产、遥远、该死的不起眼小国说美国去死？
Guess how much I care that a poor, broke ass, far away, fucking, piddly dank country says death to America?
猜猜我有多害怕这个？
Guess how afraid I am of that?
零。
Zero.
猜猜曾经领导过美国的那些人有多害怕这个？
And guess how afraid multiple people who have led The United States have been afraid of that?
他们一点都不怕。
They're not.
你想怎么说都行。
You can say it all you want.
这无关紧要。
It doesn't matter.
当你对科尔号驱逐舰发动袭击时，每一次成功的攻击，就有二十五次被挫败。
And when you do carry out an attack against the USS Cole, for every one attack that's successful, 25 of them are thwarted.
这就是身为世界上最强军事力量的好处。
That's the benefit of being the most powerful military in the world.
你不必担心那些在街头高喊口号的人。
You don't have to worry about everybody who chants in the streets.
有多少父母因为青少年孩子说‘我恨你’就和他们断绝关系？
How many people disown their kids because they say, I hate you, when they're teenagers?
你会说，给点时间吧。
You're like, give it time.
他们会成长的。
They'll grow up.
他们会好好的。
They'll be fine.
他们必须经历自己的那些烂事，才能明白当成年人是什么感觉。
They've got to go through their shit before they realize what it's like to be grown ups.
这就是我们对我们的
That's what we say about our
孩子说的话。
children.
另一个
The other
我提出的观点是
I argument saying
你可以
you can
对一个1979年才崛起的国家说同样的话。
say the same thing about a country that just came to power in 1979.
它们还不到一百年的历史。
They're less than 100 years old.
他们对如何真正成为一个国家了解多少？
What do they know about how to actually be a country?
我们又了解多少？
What do we know?
我们才只有二百五十年的历史。
We're only two fifty years old.
我的意思是，很难接受这样的说法：如果你有一个可怕的、残忍的、暴虐的政权，强迫女性戴头巾，摧毁长达数千年的波斯文明，这也没关系。
I mean, it's hard to swallow that like, you know, it's Okay if you have like a horrible, you know, murderous, brutal regime making women run around in hijabs and ruining entire thousands of years old Persian civilization.
你去过这个地区吗？
You been to this part of the world?
我还没去过。
I have not been
那里就是这样的日常生活。
That's normal life there.
你觉得朝鲜这个封闭的国家正在发生什么？
What do you think is happening in the in the hermit kingdom in North Korea?
我的意思是，天哪。
I mean, shoot.
你看。
Look.
阿富汗。
Afghanistan.
我们撤离了阿富汗，早就知道塔利班会 exactly 做出这样的事。
We left Afghanistan and knew that that's what exactly what the Taliban was gonna do.
没错。
Right.
但我们还是得正视这个问题。
But but so we're still let's have an issue.
自1979年以来，这并不正常。
Is not since '79 is not normal.
但让我们先退一步，你知道是谁发射了导弹，杀死了最高领导人和其他所有高层吗？
But but just to go back to one step for a second, who do we know launched the missiles that killed the supreme leader and all the other, in the, hierarchy?
我认为功劳应该归于美国。
The I think the credit is going to The United States.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
功劳应该归于以色列。
The credit is going to Israel.
所以是以色列实际上按下了按钮、扣动了扳机，等等。
So so so Israel is the one that essentially pushed the button, pulled the trigger, what have you.
美国提供的是确切的支援。
US is providing the Exactly.
那么在这种情况下，以色列是否有权除掉一位国家元首，而这位元首，我想提醒你，是唯一一个公开支持十月七日袭击的国家领导人。
In which case then, does Israel have the prerogative to take out a head of state that was, you know, essentially the only nation state, might I remind you, that came out in support of the October seven attacks.
只有伊朗。
It was only Iran.
甚至连朝鲜都没有发表任何声明。
Not even North Korea came out and said anything.
没有其他人这么做。
No one else did.
哈梅内伊明确表示这是。
Khamenei absolutely said this was,
就在10月8日，他命令真主党参战。
you just on an October 8, he directed Hezbollah to join the war.
因此，他是否是一个公正的目标呢？
So therefore You know, a very fair is he a fair target
对以色列来说？
for Israel?
这是个很好的问题。
That's a great question.
他是战斗人员吗？
Is he a combatant?
是的。
Yeah.
如果一个国家授权资金、激励、支持并实际上推动你的攻击者采取行动，那你是否有权针对他们？
A if a interstate authorizes funds, motivates, endorses, and basically encourages and shoves out the door your attacker, do you then have a right to go after them?
我认为这可能是这里的关键问题。
I think that's maybe that's the $10,000 question here.
好吧。
Okay.
因为如果你愿意把每个国家的领导人视为战斗人员，他们确实是军队的领导人。
Because if you're willing to see the leader of every country as a combatant, they are the heads of the military.
总统是军队的最高统帅。
The president is the commander in chief of the military.
如果他们是战斗人员，他们就是合法的打击目标。
If they are a combatant, they are a legal target.
那么，如果他们是合法目标，为什么攻击国家元首违反国际法呢？
So if they're a legal target, why is it against international law to attack head of state?
更进一步，什么是可接受的附带损害？
And even more, what's the acceptable collateral damage?
因为以色列以在全球各地实施暗杀而臭名昭著
Because Israel is notorious for assassinations around
全世界。
the world.
这使得其他国家难以与他们结盟，因为我们不支持暗杀。
It's what makes them so difficult for other people to ally with because we don't support assassinations.
而且大多数暗杀目标并非合法战斗人员。
And most assassinations are not legal combatants.
他们是科学家。
They're scientists.
那是个平民。
That's a civilian.
他们是专家。
They're experts.
那是个平民。
That's a civilian.
他们是工业巨头。
They're heads of industry.
那是个平民。
That's a civilian.
他们是将军，但并不处于使他们成为非战斗人员的热战中。
They're generals, but not in a hot conflict that makes them a noncombatant.
你所谈论的那些领域，平民与为政府工作、或参与政府资助的武器计划之类的人之间的界限。
The spaces you're talking about, the line between civilian and someone who works for the government or is on a government funded weapons program or something of that nature.
在中东，这些界限是模糊的。
Those lines are blurred in The Middle East.
我们知道。
We know that.
这些界限在任何地方都是模糊的。
Those lines are blurred everywhere.
为一家受美国军方雇佣的公司工作的平民，这个人算是战斗人员吗？
A civilian who works for a company that's hired by the US military, is that person a combatant?
好的。
Okay.
但这些区别在中东要微妙得多，尤其是当你是一名从事国家核计划的科学家时。
But it but those distinctions are are are far more subtle in The Middle East, and especially when you're a scientist working for a state nuclear program.
你是因为你是少数能胜任这项工作的人之一，才被迫为他们工作的。
That you're being forced to work for because you're one of the few scientists that can do it.
我不知道。
I don't know.
他们是被迫为他们工作的吗？
Are they forced to work for?
绝对不是。
Absolutely not.
有叛逃者。
There are defectors.
有些人选择离开。
There are those who opt.
还有些人则更加坚定，成为宗教鼓吹者，支持政府的所作所为。
And then there are those who double down and become religious cheerleaders supporting what the government's doing.
我的意思是，你这么说并不能依据国际法赋予你铲除一国元首的权利。
I mean, the point I'm making is that you saying it doesn't give you the international under international law the right to take out a head of state.
如果是自卫呢？
What if it was self defense?
那根本不是那样。
That's not what it was.
我有一个不同的说法，提出来一下，换个角度讨论。
I have a counter narrative here, just to throw it out and kind of switch up the discussion here.
你知道，这个政府对社交媒体非常感兴趣。
You know, this administration is very interested in social media.
因此，我也一样。
And for that reason, I am too.
我看到一个梗，在这次斩首事件发生后迅速流传开来，快得让我怀疑，是谁这么快就把这个推出来的？
And I look at I saw a meme that was going around immediately after this decapitation event so quickly, in fact, it made me wonder, like, who pushed that out that quickly?
那是一张白纸，上面列出了2026年全年的月份。
And it's a white sheet of paper with all the months of the year of 2026.
一月，有一张马杜罗的照片。
And January, there's a picture of Maduro.
二月，有一张墨西哥贩毒集团头目的照片。
February, there's a picture of the Mexican cartel leader.
三月，隔了一天，有一张伊朗最高领袖的照片。
March, one day off, there's a picture of the Supreme Leader of Iran.
其他月份则都是问号。
And then there's a question mark in the other months.
这让我思考并产生疑问，这是否是在向普京传递信息，暗示他最好尽快开始与特朗普谈判？
And it made me think and sort of wonder, speculate, is this messaging to Putin that he better start negotiating with Trump?
不是。
No.
普京是完全不同的另一种角色。
Putin's a whole different beast.
这其实是向古巴领导人传递的信息。
What that's a message to is the leader of Cuba.
是的。
Yeah.
古巴，我本来想说，接下来就是它了。
Cuba, I was going say, is next.
如果你关注美国认定的四大支持恐怖主义的国家，那么在古巴之后，只剩下朝鲜了。
And if you follow what The United States considers to be the four state sponsors of terrorism, The only one that remains after Cuba is North Korea.
你知道吗，偶尔你会遇到一种产品，它对你的生活产生了巨大影响，你可能会称之为改变游戏规则的东西。
You know, every once in a while you come across a product that has such a huge impact on your life that you'd probably describe as a game changer.
我认为，我团队中大约有35%到40%的人会把我现在面前的这款产品——Ketone IQ（你可以在ketone.com购买）称为改变游戏规则的产品。
And I would say for about 35 to 40% of my team, they would currently describe this product that I have in front of me called Ketone IQ, which you can get at ketone.com as a game changer.
但我成为这家公司的联合所有者，以及为什么他们现在成为这个播客的赞助商，是因为有一天我来上班时，发现桌上放着一箱这种产品。
But the reason I became a co owner of this company and the reason why they they now are a sponsor of this podcast is because one day when I came to work, there was a box of this stuff sat on my desk.
我当时根本不知道这是什么。
I had no idea what it was.
莉莉和我的团队说，这家公司之前联系过我们。
Lily and my team says that this company have been in touch.
于是我上楼试了一下，老实说，之后的一切就顺理成章了。
So I went upstairs, tried it, and quite frankly, the rest is history.
就我的专注力、精力水平、感受、工作状态和效率而言，这真是改变游戏规则的产品。
In terms of my focus, my energy levels, how I feel, how I work, how productive I am, game changer.
如果你想要试试，可以访问ketone.com/steven，享受30%的折扣。
So if you want to give it a try, visit ketone.com/steven for 30% off.
你第二次下单时还会获得一份免费赠品，现在Ketone IQ已经在美国各地的Target商店上架，首次购买完全免费。
You'll also get a free gift with your second shipment, and now you can find Ketone IQ at Target stores across The United States, where your first shot is completely free of charge.
我刚刚投资的这家公司正在疯狂增长。
This company that I've just invested in is growing like crazy.
我想亲自向你们介绍它，因为我相信它能为你带来巨大的生产力提升。
I wanna be the one to tell you about it because I think it's gonna create such a huge productivity advantage for you.
Wispr Flow 是一款可以在你的电脑和手机等所有设备上使用的应用，它让你能够通过语音与科技互动。
Wispr Flow is an app that you can get on your computer and on your phone on all your devices, and it allows you to speak to your technology.
所以我不用写邮件，只需在手机上点一个按钮，就能直接口述生成邮件。
So instead of me writing out an email, I click one button on my phone and I can just speak the email into existence.
它会使用人工智能来整理我所说的内容。
And it uses AI to clean up what I was saying.
当我完成时，只需点击这里的这个按钮，整封邮件就自动生成了。
And then when I'm done, I just hit this one button here and the whole email is written for me.
它每天为我节省了大量时间，因为 Wispr 会学习我的写作风格。
And it's saving me so much time in a day because Wispr learns how I write.
所以在 WhatsApp 上，它知道我语气比较随意，而在邮件中则更显专业。
So on WhatsApp, it knows how I am a little bit more casual, on email a little bit more professional.
而且，他们最近还做了一件非常有趣的事情。
And also, there's this really interesting thing they've just done.
我可以创建一些小短语，让系统自动为我完成工作。
I can create little phrases to automatically do the work for me.
我只要说‘杰克的领英’，它就会自动复制杰克的领英个人资料，因为它知道杰克在我生活中的身份。
I can just say Jack's LinkedIn, and it copies Jack's LinkedIn profile for me because it knows who Jack is in my life.
这为我节省了大量时间。
This is saving me a huge amount of time.
这家公司正在以惊人的速度增长。
This company is growing like absolute crazy.
这就是我投资这家公司的原因，也是他们现在成为本节目赞助商的原因。
And this is why I invested in the business and why they're now a sponsor of this show.
坦率地说，Wispr Flow 正在成为商业生产力和创业领域最不成秘密的秘密。
And Wispr Flow is frankly becoming the worst kept secret in business productivity and entrepreneurship.
现在就前往 Wispr Flow，网址是 wisprflow.ai/steven。
Check it out now at Wispr Flow spelled wisprflow.ai/steven.
这将为你带来革命性的改变。
It will be a game changer for you.
为什么美国关心古巴？
Why does The US care about Cuba?
那里的背景是什么？
What's the context there?
美国到底想从古巴得到什么？
What what does The US want with Cuba?
首先，古巴离佛罗里达海岸只有90英里。
Well, Cuba's 90 miles off the coast of Florida, for starters.
所以，从地理上讲，这非常危险。
So, geographically, it's very dangerous.
古巴曾是苏联部署核导弹的地方。
Cuba was where the Soviet Union put nuclear missiles.
在肯尼迪政府时期，他们几乎把美国推到了核战争的边缘。
They're, you know, almost bringing The United States to the brink of nuclear war during the Kennedy administration.
它是西半球少数几个不受美国势力范围影响的国家之一。
It's one of the only countries in the Western Hemisphere that does not fall under The United States' sphere of influence.
我昨天 actually 看到了这一点。
I actually saw this yesterday.
古巴政府正在与我们谈判，正如你所知，他们正陷入巨大困境。
The Cuban government is talking with us, and they're in a big deal of trouble, as you know.
他们现在没钱。
They have no money.
他们现在什么都没有，但他们正在与我们谈判。
They have no anything right now, but they're talking with us.
也许我们会和平接管古巴。
And maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.
没错。
Exactly.
所以特朗普正是这么说的。
So Trump says that Precisely.
也许我们会和平接管古巴。
Maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.
他两天前就这么说了。
And he said that two days ago.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
所以古巴是下一个，然后嗯哼。
So Cuba's next and then Mhmm.
朝鲜？
North Korea?
他们不是有核武器吗，安妮？朝鲜不是有核武器吗？
Do you they wouldn't North Korea have nuclear weapons, though, don't they, Annie?
所以
So
是的。
Yes.
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