摩根·豪塞尔

今天就开始搜索评分最高的医生吧。

Then start your search for a top rated physician today.

许多医生在24小时内就能约到。

Many are available within twenty four hours.

那就是 zocdoc.com/drew，zocdoc.com/drew。

That is zocdoc.com/drew, zocdoc.com/drew.

嗯，我觉得，你知道的，对大多数人来说，与其说想开喷气式飞机，我更想要一栋大一点的房子。

Well, yeah, I think, you know, for for for for most people, like, aspiring, let's not say a jet, but I want a bigger house.

我想要一辆更好的车。

I want a nicer car.

只要这些目标在能力范围内，拥有社会性的追求是可以的。

As long as it's within reach, it's okay to have social aspirations.

我自己也有社会性的追求和消费方面的愿望。

I have social aspirations and spending aspirations myself.

对我来说，重要的衡量标准是，无论你赚多少钱，你的期望增长速度都应慢于你的收入增长。

To me, the important metric, and this is true no matter how much money you make is that your expectations grow slower than your income.

因为真正发生在20世纪50年代的情况——更准确地说是从70年代和80年代开始——是我们的收入在整个80年代、90年代以及2000年代持续增长，经通胀调整后的中位数收入确实上升了，但我们的期望增长得甚至更多。

Because what really happened in the 1950s, or I would say starting in the 1970s and 1980s, is that our incomes rose throughout the 1980s, the 1990s, throughout the 2000s, the median income adjusted for inflation did go up, but our expectations rose by even by by by even more.

所以，如果我们的收入翻了一倍，而期望却增长了三倍，我们就会觉得自己在落后。

So if our incomes doubled, but our expectations went up by three x, we feel like we're falling behind.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为在个人层面上也是如此。

And I think at the individual level, it's the same.

你可以渴望更好的房子。

You can aspire for the nicer house.

你可以向往私人飞机，只要这些期望低于你的收入增长水平。

You can aspire for the private jet as long as those expectations are below your level of income growth.

对。

Yeah.

如果达不到，那你只是活在幻想中，会不断让自己感到不快乐。

If they're not, then you're just living in a fantasy world, and you're you're gonna constantly make yourself unhappy.

是的。

Yeah.

而这正是我想强调的，那就是现在你将不断面临嫉妒。

And that's sort of what I was drilling into, which is that that, again, now you're gonna be subjected to envy all the time.

你说得对。

So you're right.

因为你会在社交媒体上看到那些不切实际的帖子，对普通人来说根本不可能。

You because you're gonna be looking at stuff on social media and seeing stupid posts that just are not realistic, you know, for the average person.

当我之前听到你这么说时，我正是这样想的。

It's just you can you can well, the so here's what I was thinking when you when I heard you say this before.

似乎不理解财富和富有之间的根本区别，就是对资本主义运作方式缺乏理解。

It seems like not understanding the distinction between wealth and rich fundamentally is a lack of understanding of how capitalism works.

对吧？

Right?

人们根本不明白资本可以为你工作。

Like, people don't understand that capital can work for you.

人们会说这样的话。

People say things like that.

哦，我想躺着赚钱，但他们根本不知道，你可以积累一定数量的资本，让它增值并产生收入，甚至可能支撑你的生活，从而获得独立和自由。

Oh, I wanna make money while I sleep, but they really don't know what they're talking about, that you can accumulate certain amount of capital that can grow and throw off income and maybe even support you, and so you can have that independence and freedom.

第一，大多数人真的不了解这是什么以及它是如何运作的吗？

A, is that true that most people don't understand what that is and how that works?

第二，这对大多数人来说是不是也不太现实，因为他们的收入太有限了？

And, b, isn't it somewhat unrealistic for most people too because it incomes are so limited?

这是两个问题。

Those are two questions.

嗯，我认为确实如此。

Well, I think there's yeah.

我认为第一点，我在书里写过一句让人讨厌的话：当大多数人说他们想成为百万富翁时，他们真正意思是我想花一百万美元。

I think so the first part, I I had this obnoxious quote in my book where I say, when most people say they wanna be a millionaire, what they actually mean is I wanna spend a million dollars.

当大多数人梦想成为百万富翁时，根本不是指‘我想在银行里有一百万美元’。

That's what when when most people dream about being a millionaire, it's not like, Oh, I want have a million dollars in the bank.

大多数人说，我想花一百万美元，而这恰恰与百万富翁相反。

Most people say, I want to spend a million dollars, and that's the opposite of a millionaire.

所以人们对真正想要的东西存在一种脱节。

So there's this disconnect between what people actually want.

考虑到中等收入，这现实吗？

Is it unrealistic given moderate incomes?

我认为这取决于具体情况。

I would say it's all in context.

我的意思是，如今美国家庭的中位数收入，也就是典型的平均家庭年收入约为65,000美元。

Mean, the median American household today, the typical average household earns about $65,000 per year.

这是平均水平。

That's the average.

如果考虑通货膨胀，回溯到上一代，也就是七十年代，65,000美元的购买力足以让你过上奢华生活。

If adjust that for inflation and go back one generation, go back to the seventies, adjust it for inflation, dollars 65,000 could have been like you're you're living the high life.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为，这里再次表明，如今我们的期望增长得远快于现实，因此显得受限。

So I think like here again, it seems limited today because our expectations have grown so much faster than that reality.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，这就是为什么我们在金融行业、财务顾问、电视和书籍中花费大量时间讨论：如何赚更多钱？

And so this is why we spend so much time in the financial industry, financial advisors and on TV and in books, talking about like, can you earn more money?

如何提高你的薪水？

How can you grow your salary?

如何增加你的净资产？

How can you grow your net worth?

这固然很好，但只是问题的一半。

Which is great, but it's only half the equation.

另一半是：如何控制你的期望，使其与这种增长保持同步？

The other half of the equation is how do you keep your expectations in check relative to that growth?

对。

Yes.

如果你没有这一部分，你就会一直陷在不幸的跑步机上，而大多数人正是如此，这也解释了为什么我们是人类历史上最富裕的社会，却并没有因此感到更幸福。

And if you don't have that part of the equation, you're constantly going to be on this treadmill of unhappiness, and most people are, which is why we are the richest society that's ever existed in the history of this universe, and we don't feel any better for it.

我从未见过任何证据表明，如今人们在经济上比一百年前更快乐。

There's no evidence that I have seen that people are happier economically today than they were a hundred years ago.

尽管生活质量有了惊人的提升，但我认为我们并没有更快乐，因为这一切不过是一场期望与比较的游戏。

Despite like ridiculous quality of life increases, I don't think we're any happier because it's all just an expectations and comparison game.

你提到了嫉妒这个词，我虽然没有这么说，但我认为这确实非常准确。

And you bring up the word envy, which I don't, but I think that's really true.

这正是问题的核心。

Like that's the core of it.

这里还有一个我需要指出的奇特现象：经济成长、创新和技术突破的很大一部分原因，是人们每天早上醒来都感到不足，觉得自己需要更多、需要更大的成功。

There's also this quirk here that I need to point out, which is that a big part of the reason that there is economic growth and that there is innovation and technology breakthroughs is because people wake up every morning feeling inadequate and feeling like they need more, they need more success.

他们去工作，努力逼迫自己尽最大努力。

They go to work and try to like try to push themselves as hard as they can.

如果每个人都知足了，这就是其中的讽刺之处。

If everyone was content like, so this is the irony.

我在经济上的目标就是对现状感到满足。

My goal economically is just be content with what I have.

就是觉得，我拥有的这些已经足够好了。

Just be like, what I got is like, I'm cool with what I have.

如果每个人都这样想，就不会有创新了。

If everybody did that, there'd be no innovation.

也不会有增长。

There'd be no growth.

那样的话，我们所有人都会逐渐倒退。

And then we'd all kind of slip backwards.

因此，人们每天醒来时带着这种焦虑感，正是推动我们前进的动力，我们应当对此心怀感激。

So the fact that people do wake up with this sense of anxiety is what pushes us all forward that we should be thankful for.

所以，从定义上来说，这不是每个人都能靠自己解决的问题。

So this is not a problem that everyone can solve for themselves by definition.

这正是其中奇怪的地方：我们需要一定程度的焦虑来推动自己前进。

Like that's the weird quirk of all all is that we want a level of anxiety to push us forward.

好的。

Okay.

行吧。

Alright.

所以这是一个理由，这也是个不错的观点：这些期望在某种意义上是进步，或者至少是在削弱进步。

So that that's a reason that's a good point is that that these expectations are progress in a weird way or at least defueling progress.

但让我们来看看这个账本：一方面，期望被抬高了；另一方面，我要直接指出一个事实——我们的个性中普遍存在一种自恋结构的流行病，而自恋的一大弊端就是嫉妒。

But but let's get to this ledger of, on one hand, expectations are inflated, and on the other, and this I'll just state this as a fact, we have a profound pandemic of narcissistic structure to our personalities, and one of the great liabilities of narcissism is envy.

而嫉妒不同于妒忌。

And envy is not jealousy.

对吧？

Right?

妒忌则与期望那一面有关。

Jealousy goes back to the expectation side.

妒忌是说：那个人拥有的，正是我拥有的那辆黄色兰博基尼。

Jealousy is that guy's got what I got, the yellow Lamborghini.

我要上大学，努力学习，争取得到它。

I'm gonna go to college and work hard and get that.

那不是嫉妒。

That's not envy.

嫉妒就是：去他的，那个家伙。

Envy would have been, fuck that guy.

我要把这辆兰博基尼开进湖里。

I'm gonna drive this Lamborghini into the lake.

那才是嫉妒。

That that's envy.

嫉妒就是因为你没有别人拥有的东西，就想把别人拉下来。

Envy is to tearing another guy down because you don't have what they have.

但因为我们有太多的自恋，嫉妒才四处蔓延。

But because we have so much narcissism, envy is on the loose.

如果你看看几乎所有的宗教，其中一条最严厉的戒律就是禁止嫉妒。

If you look at almost every religion, one of the most serious injunctions is against envy.

嫉妒是人类最具破坏性的情感之一。

Envy is one of the most destructive emotions that humans have.

因此，比较催生了嫉妒。

So we have the comparison creating envy.

另一方面，我们的期望却在不断膨胀。

We have the expectations inflating on the other side of the ledger.

我们该怎么办？

What do we do?

这里的答案是什么？

What what's the answer here?

你如何才能获得满足感？

How do you how do you get to contentment?

有没有办法？你有解决方案吗？

Is there is there do you have solutions?

请别把问题甩回给我，说那是医生该去解决的事。

I please don't turn it back on me and go, that's what the doctors are supposed to figure out.

你有没有想过这个问题？

Have you thought about this?

在行为经济学中，有没有什么方法能帮助我们感到满足，或者至少对我们正在做的事情感到兴奋？我们正在朝着某种成长和建设的方向前进，而不需要拥有那些东西。

And and is there is there something in the sort of behavioral economics that can help us sort of be be content or at least be excited about what we're doing, that we're we're moving towards something that we're growing and we're building, and we don't have to have that.

我只是把私人飞机当作一个最极端的例子。

I'm just using the jet as the most out there kind of idea.

你不需要拥有私人飞机。

You don't have to have the jet.

我们可以满足于所谓的成长与发展的过程，但我

We can be satisfied with the with the, as they say, with the, with the journey of growth and development, but I'll

让我告诉你。

let you know.

我觉得这里有几件事。

I think there's there's there's there's a couple of things here.

第一，你完全正确，这种感觉确实是嫉妒，因为它不是想让自己变得更好。

One, you're absolutely right that it is envy in the sense of it's not wanting to lift yourself up.

想要的是打压其他群体。

Wanting It's to tear the other group down.

是的。

Yeah.

我们在2011年占领华尔街运动中清晰地看到了这一点。

We saw this really starkly in 2011 with Occupy Wall Street when that was a thing.

占领华尔街运动并不是要提升穷人的地位，而是要打压富人。

The Occupy Wall Street movement was not lift up the poor people, it was tear down the rich people.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这里有一个非常明确的区别。

So that's that's that's a very clear distinction there.

我认为，如果我在跟别人讨论这一点时，要强调一点，那就是：如果你足够了解富人——我相信你确实了解不少——你会发现他们并不比其他人更快乐，至少不会比你预期的更快乐。

I think if there was, if there is any bit of this that I would, when I talk to people about like that point, it's if you get to know enough wealthy people, and I'm sure you do, they're not any happier than anyone else, or at least they're not happier than you would expect them to be.

我刚读完威尔·史密斯的传记，真的非常非常好。

I just read Will Smith's biography, which is really, really good.

这是一本非常好的书。

It's a super good book.

他提出了一个我觉得非常棒的观点，他说当他抑郁又穷困时，他会告诉自己，如果有了更多的钱，所有问题都会消失。

And he made this point that I thought was really good, which he said when he was depressed and broke, he could tell himself that if he had more money, all of his problems would go away.

这给了他一种希望，他会说，现在一切都糟透了，但有了更多的钱就会好起来。

It gave him a sense of hope that he would say, oh, like everything sucks right now, but more money will be great.

而当他变得富有却又抑郁时，他就不再有这种希望了。

And then when he was rich and depressed, he no longer had that hope.

于是他的抑郁越来越深，越来越深，越来越深。

And then his depression just fell deeper and deeper and deeper.

这就像山顶上的孤独感。

That's like the loneliness at the mountaintop of idea.

我觉得你经常能看到这种现象。

I think you see that a lot.

你一再看到同样的故事：当人们赚了很多钱，尤其是把钱花在物质商品上时，他们会说，一开始确实很棒，但不久后就失去了光彩，失去了魅力。

You see the same story over and over again when people make a lot of money, particularly when they use that money for material goods, they say, look, it was great for a little while, but then it lost its shine, lost its flare.

当我不再抱有更大的房子会让我快乐的希望时，我的抑郁感变得更深、更深、更深了。

And then when I no longer had the hope that the bigger house would make me happy, then my depression fell even lower and lower and lower.

对于普通人来说，看到这种情况时，难免会有一点幸灾乐祸的感觉，心想：看吧，这也没那么好，我反而更棒。

There's a little bit of like Schadenfreude in that for ordinary people to look at that and say, see, it's not that great and I'm I'm better.

但当你反复听到这样的故事，我认为它应该深深烙印在你心里。

But when you hear that story enough, I think it it should get really ingrained in you.

我书里提到的另一个观点是：我当泊车员时有过一个观察，当有人开一辆法拉利或宾利之类豪车进来时，我从不会看着司机想：哇，这人真酷。

The other point that I make, I make this point in the book, which is that I I this is like an observation that I had when I was a valet, which was when when somebody would drive in in a Ferrari or a Bentley or something like that, I would never look at the driver and say, woah, that guy is cool.

我反而会想象自己就是那个司机。

What I would do is I would imagine myself as the driver.

然后我会想：哇，如果是我，别人一定会觉得我好酷。

And then I would say, woah, if that was me, people would think I'm cool.

这种讽刺和脱节在于，没人关心真正的司机，他们只是在想象自己是那个司机。

And that irony, that disconnect that nobody cared about the driver, they just imagined themselves as the driver.

这种讽刺对我而言意义深远：没人像你那样时刻关注着你。

And the irony of that, I think was really profound on me that no one thinks about you as much as you do.

每个人在看你物质物品的时候，只是在想象自己拥有它们。

Everyone, whenever they are looking at your material goods, they're just imagining themselves having them.

他们根本不会想到你。

They're not thinking about you.

他们不会想摩根很酷，德鲁很酷。

They're not thinking that Morgan's cool, Drew is cool.

那不是他们在想的事。

That's not what they're thinking.

他们在想，如果自己是你，就会很酷。

They're thinking they would be cool if they were you.

当你真正把这一点放在心上时，我认为当你意识到你从物质物品中获得的社会认可远比你想象的少时，你对它们的追求就会稍微降低。

And then, so when you really take that to heart, I think when you realize that you get way less social, like way less credit for your material goods than you think you do, social credit, then I think your aspiration for them declines a little bit.

这对我来说效果最好。

And that's what has worked the best for me.

这就是为什么我和我妻子的储蓄率这么高。

That's why my wife and I have a really high savings rate.

金钱能带给你的最好东西就是满足感。

It's like the best that you can get out of money is contentment.

你从独立中获得满足感。

You get contentment from independence.

所以我要把大部分钱存起来，就让它躺在银行里，给我带来独立、自由和自主权，这就是我们能做到的最好程度了。

So let me save most of my money, just have it sitting around in the bank to give me independence and freedom and autonomy, and that's the best that we can do.

我有几点评论。

A couple comments.

我在思考该怎么说这件事。

I'm trying how to go at this.

富人并不那么快乐。

The the rich people being less happy.

你知道吗，我在一家精神病院工作了三十五年，刚去的时候我立刻就意识到：天啊。

You know, I worked in a psychiatric hospital for thirty five years, and the one thing that jumped out of me immediately when I got there was, oh my god.

非常富有和非常贫穷的人，彼此之间的共同点，远多于我们其他人。

The very rich and the very poor have much more in common with each other than the rest of us.

他们当时状态很好。

They were they were with it.

精神病院里的人，要么非常富有，要么非常贫穷，而且他们都有很多心理问题。

That's who was in the psych hospital, very wealthy and very poor, and they were lot of psychopathology.

所以，关于富人不太快乐这一点，是的，如果你不知道让人快乐的是人际关系和家庭。

So as far as being not so happy when they're rich, yes, if you do not what makes people happy is relationships and family.

这才是让人快乐的根源。

That's what makes people happy.

我们对此非常确定。

We know that for sure.

好的。

Okay.

就是这样。

That's just it.

如果你不关注这一点，如果没有健康的人际关系和相应的专注，你就会不快乐。

And if you don't attend to that and if you if you don't have some health there and some some some focus there, you're gonna be unhappy.

如果你不治疗心理病理问题，你就不会快乐。

And if you don't get treatment for psychopathology, you're not gonna be happy.

但我要说，那些把人际关系放在首位的人，会投入时间、资源去治疗出现的任何心理病理问题。

But I will say those people that do have the priority in their relationships will spend and invest and and time and and resources into treating whatever psychopathic stuff psychopathological stuff shows up.

当他们有很多钱时，他们会更快乐。

When they have a lot of money, they are a lot happier.

他们是的。

They are.

我接触过很多这样的人。

I've been around a lot of them.

他们真的很喜欢拥有这些，也能谈论自己过去不那么快乐的日子，而现在更快乐了。

They are really they really like having and they can talk about what they were like earlier, not as happy, and they are happier now.

说这种做法无效，这并不符合我的经验。

It it's so to say that that doesn't work is sort of it's not been my experience.

有很多人过得很悲惨。

There are tons miserable.

有大量富有的、不幸福的人。

There are tons of miserable rich people.

非常多。

Tons.

不幸福的富人和穷人一样多，但这源于关于人类的一些根本事实。

And there are as many miserable rich people as poor people, but that's because of these fundamental facts about human beings.

另一点是，当你拥有财富时，人们似乎不在乎你，但当他们想打压你时，他们却非常在意你。

And the other thing is you as you pertain to the you know, having stuff and people not caring about you, they do care about you when they wanna tear you down.

这又回到那句：去他的。

That's back to fuck that guy.

我要开他的车进去。

I'm gonna drive his car in there.

那时他们确实会在意你。

They they do care about you then.

所以这就是

So that is

那就是他们在盯着你的时候。

That's when they're looking at you.

没错。

That's right.

关于这些基本真理，我想有一个点特别好。

One point here about about those those fundamental truths that I think is really good.

有一位名叫卡尔·皮利默的老年病学家，大约十年前写了一本书叫《生活的100堂课》，他采访了1000位90多岁或刚过百岁的美国人，只问他们一个问题：我该如何过好这一生？

There's a gerontologist named Carl Pillimer who about a decade ago wrote a book called 100 Lessons for Living, and he interviewed 1,000 Americans who are in their 90s or early 100s, and he just asked them, How can I live a good life?

在你漫长的一生中，你学到了什么可以教给我的东西？

What have you learned in your long life that I can learn from?

他专门有一章讲金钱。

And he has a section on money.

他说，在他采访的这1000个人中，没有一个人回顾人生时说：‘我真希望当初赚更多钱。’

And he says, of the thousand people that he interviewed, not a single one of them looking back at their life said, I wish I earned more money.

也没有一个人说：‘我真希望当初买更奢华的东西。’

And not a single one of them said, I wish I had bought fancier stuff.

但几乎所有人都说，我真希望能多花点时间陪家人。

But virtually all of them, every single person said, I wish I spent more time with my family.

是的。

Yeah.

我真希望对朋友和邻居更好一点。

I wish I was nicer to my friends and my neighbors.

是的。

Yeah.

我真希望多主动帮助邻居一些。

I wish I had gone out of my way to help my neighbors more than did.

他们每个人都这么说，却没有一个人说，我真希望赚更多钱。

Every single one of them said that, and not a single person said, I wish I had more money.

你说得对。

You're right.

我漏掉了一点，那就是服务。

I I left a thing out, which is service.

没错。

That's right.

一直在产生影响，做出有意义的贡献。

Been making a difference, contributing meaningfully.

亚当·斯密说过什么来着？

What is it Adam Smith said?

他们不仅希望被爱，还希望在他人眼中是可爱的。

They would not only wanna be loved, but be lovely in the eyes of others.

我觉得那是他的原话，大概是这样。

I think that was his quote, something like that.

我想我刚才忘了自己在听你说什么，但我听到你的话时，仿佛听到了亚当·斯密的思想回响。

And I I I think I I forget what I was hearing you talk about, but I thought I heard echoes of Adam Smith and some of the things you were saying.

是不是他的某些道德哲学，还有

Is is that some of his moral philosophy and and

我读过亚当·斯密的书，因为它们是用古英语写的。

I've I've I've read Adam Smith's books because they're written in old English.

这是你能想象到的最晦涩难懂的阅读材料，但我认为有几条重要的启示。

It's the it's the densest reading you can possibly imagine, but I think there there there there are couple takeaways.

他是第一个理解自由市场力量的人，懂得自由市场是什么，什么是‘看不见的手’，但我从未深入研究过他的著作。

I mean, was the first person to understand the power of the free market, understand what the free market was, the invisible hand, but I've never dug deep into his stuff.

有一位现代作家兼经济学家叫拉塞尔·罗伯茨，他试图将亚当·斯密的思想现代化，用现代英语清晰地解释他的观点，而不是用古英语。

There's a modern author economist named Russ Roberts who has tried to really modernize Adam Smith's work and in a way of, like, here's his points, and let me explain it to you in modern English rather than old English.

是的。

Yeah.

但我从未真正通读过《国富论》。

But I've I've I've I've never dug through the wealth of nations.

我试过。

I've tried.

那简直太痛苦了。

It's miserable.

所以拉塞尔·罗伯茨有一个名为《经济谈话》的播客。

So Russ Roberts has a podcast, called Econ Talk.

在他早期的播客中，不是最近的，比如三年前，他采访了很多研究亚当·斯密的学者，非常多。

And in his earlier pods, not more recent ones, like, maybe, like, from three years ago, he did a he talked to a lot of scholar Adam Smith type scholars, a lot.

正是这些节目让我爱上了《Econ Talk》。

And and that's how I got hooked on Econ Talk.

最近一段时间，我觉得它有点偏离主题了，但如果你想了解亚当·斯密，那里依然是个绝佳的选择。

I'm lately, it's gone sideways a bit for me, but but if you wanna learn about Adam Smith, that's a great place to go.

我完全同意你的看法。

I totally agree with you.

你听过他的播客吗？

Have you heard his podcast?

你听过《EconTalk》吗？

You heard EconTalk?

他太棒了。

He's wonderful.

是的。

Yeah.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

他真的很棒。

He's he's he's great.

他是第一个让我听到有人说，大多数人想要的不仅仅是爱，而是被人喜爱。

He was the first person who I said or who I who I heard say, most people wanna be not just love, but lovely.

这是亚当·斯密的一个很棒的名言。

It's a great Adam Smith quote.

就是他，我第一次听到这句话就是从他那里来的。

He was who he was that was was where I first came across that.

这太棒了。

It's wonderful.

有趣的是，人们常常批评亚当·斯密，而拉uss指出的一个观点是，亚当·斯密并不认为自己是历史或哲学的政治或经济诠释者。

And and it's interesting that, you know, people condemn Adam Smith, and this one one of the points that that, Russ points out, which is Adam Smith thought of himself not as a as a political or economic interpreter of history or philosophy.

他把自己看作一位道德哲学家。

He saw himself as a moral philosopher.

他写过一本关于道德的书，那才是他的代表作，从他的角度来看。

His his he he wrote a book on morality, and that was his opus, you know, his great opus from his standpoint.

但他会慢慢剖析，你知道，事情究竟是怎样的。

But he he talks about he sorta teases apart, you know, how it is.

他写了一篇非常精彩的论文，收录在《国富论》里，讲的是一个水手怎么买得起一件海员外套，以及这件外套的来源，他一路追溯到牧羊人、赶羊、剪羊毛、织布，解释整个体系是如何运作的。

He is a great I I don't get too deep into it, he's got a great essay in in the Wealth of Nations about how a sailor wearing a peacoat is able to afford that peacoat and where it comes from, and he goes all the way down down to the shepherds, you know, moving the sheep around and shearing the sheep and doing the looms and how this system works.

当你真正退后一步审视经济时，这简直令人叹为观止。

And when you when you really stand back and look at economies, it is breathtaking.

人类能够做到这些、创造出这些让我们生活更美好的东西，这真是太不可思议了，我们甚至负担得起它们。

It is it is phenomenal that what we're able to do as human beings and and create these things that we can, you know, make our lives better and we can afford.

而试图去控制它、攻击它，这总是让我感到困惑。

And attacking it always mystifies me, you know, trying to control it and attack it.

也许我可以问你一个更宏观的问题。

And and, you know, where maybe I'll ask you sort of a global question.

我们已经大致讨论了这些基础内容，我想我已经从嫉妒和期望中得到了我想了解的东西。

We we've sort of we've sort of been through the basics here, and we've I I think I've got what I wanted out of envy and and expectation.

答案是，每个人都需要努力提升自己。

The answer is there is you know, work on yourself, everybody.

这就是答案。

That's the answer.

真的，要调整你的期望。

Really, moderate your expectations.

了解资本主义是如何运作的。

Learn how capitalism works.

你要明白，嫉妒这种情绪，最受伤害的永远是你自己。

You know, realize envy is a no one gets more destroyed by envy than you.

这是一种有毒的、糟糕的情绪。

It's a it's a toxic, awful emotion.

没有人因为嫉妒而变得更快乐。

No one's happier because they're envious.

幸福来自于服务他人。

Service is where happiness comes in.

家庭才是幸福的来源。

Family is where where happiness comes in.

但今天我们的情况如何呢？

But but where are we today?

你对这一点有什么想法吗？关于社交媒体的疯狂，以及那些自以为无所不知的人？

Do you do you have any thoughts about that and, you know, in terms of the craziness in social media and all the everyone that thinks they know everything?

在我看来，谦逊在各个地方都缺失了。

It's just to me, humility is lacking everywhere.

你对我们未来的走向有什么看法？

Any thoughts about where we're headed?

我认为确实如此，人类至今仍不清楚社交媒体对经济、社会学以及未来走向造成了什么影响。

I think it's it's definitely true that, human, you know, we, we, we still have no idea what social media has done to the economy and to sociology and to where it's going to go.

我的意思是，这并不算太久。

I mean, it was not that long.

我们说的是十年前甚至更短的时间前，社交媒体还只是人们在试验的一个新兴小事物。

We're talking ten years ago or less than that, that social media was just like a budding little thing that people were experimenting.

所以我们真的不知道它将走向何方，以及它对某些经济周期等的影响。

So we really don't know where that's going to go and its ability to influence certain economic cycles and whatnot.

每当有人说到今天的经济看起来如此疯狂时，我总是想指出，经济一直都很疯狂。

I would say that whenever someone says the economy seems so crazy today, I always want to point out that it's always been crazy.

它一直都很疯狂。

It's always been insane.

它一直都是繁荣与萧条交替。

It's always been boom to bust.

约翰·斯图尔特有一句很棒的话，他说：你童年时世界看起来更好的唯一原因，是因为你当时是个孩子。

There's this great John Stewart quote where he says, the only reason the world seemed better during your childhood is because you were a child.

事情一直都很荒唐。

Things have always been nuts.

事情一直都很疯狂。

Things have always been crazy.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你将今天的情况与上世纪七十年代、三十年代或1920年代相比，无论你选哪个十年，如今的情况实际上已经相当平静了。

And if you compare what's going on today with what happened in the seventies, which would happen in the thirties and the 1920s, pick your decade, things are actually pretty calm today.

这并不是说情况真的平静。

It's not to say they're calm.

而是说，相对于历史上一贯的疯狂状态，如今已经算平静了。

It's that they're calm relatively to the insanity of what it's always been.

你知道，如果我们回溯到更早的时期，比如十九世纪末、内战之后的那段时期，在美国，经济衰退每18个月就会准时发生一次，像钟表一样精准。

And, you know, we have, it used to be, if you go back to that, had mentioned the late eighteen hundreds, that period after the civil war, it was during that period in The United States, there was a recession every 18 months, like clockwork.

没错。

That's right.

像钟表一样精准。

Like clockwork.

那是一次严重的衰退。

It's a bad one.

有些衰退非常严重。

Some Some severe severe ones.

一些非常糟糕的，真的很糟糕的。

Some really, some really bad ones.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为人们之所以对当今经济状况感到震惊，部分原因是经济衰退对他们来说是陌生的概念。

And I think part of the reason that people are so shocked at the state of today's economy is because the idea of an economic downturn is foreign to them.

是的。

Yeah.

感觉好像出了什么问题。

It feels like something is wrong.

而那时候，这就像四季更替一样自然。

Whereas back then it was just like the passing of the seasons.

对。

Right.

因此，我认为今天全球经济中的许多焦虑都源于我们过得太好了。

And so I think a lot of our anxiety across the global economy today comes from how good we have it.

但这并不是要淡化人们的苦难。

Now, that's not to diminish the hardship of people.

今天很多人处境真的很糟糕。

People are in some really shitty positions today.

只是想指出，这种情况一直存在。

Just point out that that's always been the case.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，当人们谈论所谓今天的经济混乱时，这是我最想强调的区别。

So that's the biggest distinction that I ever make when people talk about the quote, unquote, crazy economy today.

不。

No.

我得告诉你，听你这么说让我感到安心。

I have to tell you, just hearing you say that is reassuring.

我希望其他人也能感到安心，因为这确实是事实。

I hope other people feel reassured as well because that is absolutely the truth.

我们只是不习惯这样。

We're just not used to it.

我们本该习惯的，我注意到埃隆·马斯克最近发了很多推文，说这种状况其实很正常。

We should be used to it, and I've noticed Elon Musk has been tweeting a lot about how healthy it is.

我们需要这种调整。

We need this.

我们需要这些经济下行期，而几乎所有人都在说，我们曾经面临过非常糟糕的经济状况，比如2008年的危机和新冠疫情。

We need these downturns, And that's pretty much what everyone is saying that, you know, we've been faced with some really awful situations economically with the two thousand eight crisis and then COVID.

而唯一的方式就是，作为最后贷款人的机构介入了，大家基本都认同他们不得不这么做，而现在我们得为此付出代价。

And the the the only path, you know, of where the the lender of last resort has stepped in, everyone kind of agrees they kinda had to, and now now we pay the price.

现在我们必须面对它。

Now we gotta deal with it.

现在我们必须做出调整。

Now we have to adjust.

你以前听过我提起过，乔丹·哈宾格的播客节目，它被列为2018年最佳播客之一，你该听听。

You've heard me talk about it before, the Jordan Harbinger Show podcast you should be listening to, named one of the best of 2018.

它的目标是让你变得更明智，成为一个更有批判性思维的人。

It's aimed at making you better informed, more critical thinker.

当然，乔丹本人是一位出色的访谈对象，拥有丰富的人生经历，会说多种语言，走遍世界各地，经历过各种疯狂的事，甚至曾被劫持为人质。

And, of course, Jordan himself is a great interview with interesting life experience, speak multiple languages, has been everywhere, and lived everywhere, and had crazy experiences where he himself has been held hostage.

他采访了像FBI谈判专家这样的人，他们分享如何让人喜欢你、信任你的技巧。

He talks to people like an FBI negotiator who offers techniques on how to get people to like and trust you.

非常实用。

Very useful.

乔丹总是专注于从嘉宾身上提炼出实用的洞见，而不是肤浅的内容。

Jordan is always focused on pulling useful practical insights out of his guest, not just, superficial stuff.

是的。

Yep.

它充满了智慧，能真正改变你的想法，以积极的方式改善你的生活。

So it's a loaded with wisdom you can use to legitimately change your mind, improve your life in good ways.

值得一看。

It's worth checking it out.

亚当很喜欢。

Adam enjoys it.

我也很喜欢。

I enjoyed it.

你会喜欢的。

You'll enjoy it.

这是乔丹·哈宾格秀。

It's the Jordan Harbinger Show.

搜索乔丹·哈宾格秀。

Search for the Jordan Harbinger Show.

拼写是 h-a-r，b 代表 boy，i-n 代表 Nancy，g-e-r。

That that's h a r, b as in boy, I, n as in Nancy, g e r.

你可以在苹果播客、Spotify 或你收听播客的任何平台找到它。

You can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

本播客由 BetterHelp 赞助。

This podcast is sponsored by BetterHelp.

现在我们回到赞助商BetterHelp的内容。

Now we're from our sponsor BetterHelp.

当然，BetterHelp是我一直谈论的一个机构。

And of course, BetterHelp is a group that I have been talking about for quite some time.

既然我们已经明白，你可以通过电子媒介获得情感问题和心理健康问题的帮助。

Now that we have an understanding that you can get help for emotional issues, for mental health issues through electronic media.

我的意思是，为什么不呢？

I mean, why not?

你为什么要让偏见阻碍你获得这种帮助呢？

And why would you allow stigma to stand in the way of that?

我知道有些人担心等候室之类的事情，但现在不一样了，有了BetterHelp就不必担心了。

I know that sometimes people are worried about waiting rooms and things like that, but not anymore, not with BetterHelp.

我推荐过病人，也推荐过家人和朋友，我对他们提供的专业服务非常满意。

And I referred patients, I've referred family, friends, and I've been very pleased with the professional services provided.

BetterHelp提供在线心理治疗，支持视频、电话，甚至仅限文字聊天的治疗会话。

BetterHelp is online therapy that offers video, phone, even live chat only therapy sessions.

所以，如果你不想，就不必在镜头前露面。

So you don't have to see anyone on camera if you don't want to.

它比面对面的治疗更便宜，而且你可以在48小时内匹配到一位治疗师。

It's more affordable than in person therapy, and you can be matched with a therapist in under forty eight hours.

我们的听众在 betterhelp.com/drew 可享受首月10%的折扣。

Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com/drew.

就是 better, better, betterhelp, help, betterhelp.com/drew。

That is better, better, betterhelp, help, betterhelp.com/drew.

我的意思是，我我我我，但毫无疑问的是，我认为现代美国历史上最重要的时期是大萧条，每个人都应该回头去看看20世纪30年代人们的生活是什么样子——不仅失去了工作，还发现整个积蓄因没有联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）保险而在银行瞬间化为乌有，这对人们造成了怎样的影响。

I mean, I I I I what what's definitely true is I think the most important period in modern US history was the great depression and everyone should go back and read what it was like to live in the 1930s, what it was like to not only lose your job, but then realize that your entire life savings was wiped out at the bank because there was no FDIC insurance and what that did to people.

我的意思是，那几乎与南北战争对美国的凝聚力造成的冲击不相上下。

I mean, it was, that was probably almost on par with the civil war of holding The United States together.

是的。

Yeah.

因为在20世纪30年代初，1931年、1932年，许多聪明而理性的美国人开始呼吁：这个体系已经不再有效了。

Because in the 1930s, in the early 1930s, 1931, 'thirty two, the push among smart, reasonable Americans to say, this system doesn't work anymore.

也许我们应该试试欧洲正在尝试的法西斯主义。

Maybe we should try fascism like they're trying in Europe.

这种呼声如此强烈且具有吸引力，因为数百万美国人刚刚失去了一切。

That push was so strong and so appealing because so many millions of Americans had just lost everything.

这并不想离题太多，但确实有一些非常有趣的研究，采访了德国人，询问他们在20年代和30年代如何看待希特勒是如何掌权的。

And that's, there's this really not, not to go out on too much of a tangent here, there's some really interesting work interviewing people in Germany and asking them in the 1920s and 1930s and asking them, how did Hitler come to power?

一个文明的国家，充满聪明、受过教育的人，怎么会接受阿道夫·希特勒？

How did a civilized nation full of smart, educated people embrace Adolf Hitler?

原因有很多，但我觉得最有趣的一种说法是，那些德国人说：你得理解，在20年代，我们失去了一切。

And there's a lot of reasons for that, but the the narrative that I think is most interesting are people who's or the Germans who say, you have to understand, in the nineteen twenties, we lost everything.

是的。

Yeah.

20年代的经济被彻底摧毁了。

The economy was completely destroyed in the nineteen 1920s.

是的。

Yeah.

阿道夫·希特勒出现了，他说：我会给你们更好的出路。

And Adolf Hitler came along and said, I will give you a better way.

在这个世界里，当你一无所有、饥肠辘辘、失去工作、失去家园时。

And in that world, when you've lost everything, when you're starving, when you've lost your job, you've lost your house.

如果有人出现并声称他们有更好的办法，你一定会拥抱他们。

If someone comes along and says they have a better way, you are going to embrace them.

我认为，正是因为这套体系对人们不再有效，美国才如此接近那种境地。

And I think we we came so close to that in America just because the system wasn't working for people.

我认为，我们如今的许多体系——比如联邦存款保险公司、美联储印钞、刺激计划、巨额赤字——都很容易被批评。

And I think a lot of the systems that we have right now, FDIC insurance, the fed printing money, the stimulus packages, the big deficits are so easy to criticize.

但我们之所以这么做，是为了避免经济衰退引发社会衰退或社会崩溃的那些深层危机。

But the reason that we do them is to avoid some of those deep areas when when economic decline leads to social decline or social collapse.

你对德国人和希特勒的分析太对了。

You were so right about the Germans and and Hitler.

我父母有个朋友，早已去世，但他在三十年代时还是个青少年。

I I had a my parents had a friend long long since passed away, but was, you know, an adolescent during the thirties.

我问了她这些问题。

And I asked her those questions.

因为她毫不掩饰地支持希特勒，尽管她离开了德国。

And because she was unapologetic about having I think she supported Hitler even though she left Germany.

她说：你看。

And she said, look.

我们一无所有，而他来了，建起了足球场。

We had nothing, and he came and he built soccer fields.

他建起了足球场。

He built soccer fields.

我们当时还是孩子。

We were kids.

他建起了足球场，还有一些用于娱乐的基础设施，人们开始重新振作起来。

He built soccer fields and sort of some some sort of infrastructure for recreation, and people started to thrive again.

那是我们唯一的希望。

And it was our only it was our only hope kinda thing.

他说他会做，然后他就做了。

And and he said he would do it, then he did it.

所以那就是全部了。

And so that's that was it.

对。

Right.

你是那个提到大萧条时期日记的人吗？

The are you the one that referenced the diary from the depressions?

你读过它。

You read it.

那是你吗？我听到你提到过那个？

Was that you I heard talking about that?

因为我立刻买了那本书。

Because I I immediately bought that book.

它今天刚到。

I it just arrived today.

我立刻买了它，因为我心想，哦，这才是理解的方式。

I immediately bought it because I thought, oh, that is the way to to understand.

聊聊这个吧。

Talk talk about that.

是的。

Yes.

在20世纪30年代，俄亥俄州扬斯敦有一位名叫本杰明·罗斯的律师。

So there was in the nineteen thirties, there was a lawyer in Youngstown, Ohio named Benjamin Roth.

他只是一个小镇律师，但在大萧条期间，他保持了非常详细的日记，他的儿子在2010年出版了这本日记。

He was just a small town lawyer, but he kept a very detailed diary during the Great Depression, and his son published it in 2010.

这本书名为《大萧条：日记》。

The book is called the great depression, a diary.

我认为，这可能是有史以来最出色的经济学著作，尽管作者并非有意为之——因为本杰明·罗斯在20世纪30年代写下这些条目时，并没有任何后见之明。

And I think it's I think it is unintentionally the best economics book ever written because when Benjamin Roth was writing these entries in nineteen thirties, there's no hindsight bias.

他并不知道接下来会发生什么。

He did not know what was gonna happen next.

我们今天写的每一本关于大萧条的书，都知道故事的结局，这会影响我们对当时发生事情的看法。

Every, every book that we write today about the great depression, we know how the story ends and it colors our view of what happened at the time.

是的。

Yep.

本杰明·罗斯在1932年写下这些日记条目。

Benjamin Roth was writing these diary entries in 1932.

他完全不知道接下来会发生什么。

He has no clue what's gonna happen next.

因此，他非常敏锐地理解了当时的社会状况。

And so, and he was very astute at just understanding the sociology of what was going on.

他仔细观察了邻居们正在经历的一切。

He was very observant about what his neighbor going through.

由于他是律师，他帮助许多本地企业应对破产程序等各种问题。

Since he was a lawyer, he was helping a lot of local businesses navigate the bankruptcy process and whatnot.

我觉得这非常有趣。

And I think it's just fascinating.

这本书令人着迷的一点是，我记得我第一次读它时，大概是在2011年或2012年刚出版的时候，当时人们在1932年的想法和言论，与2008年和2009年经济衰退期间人们的言论惊人地相似。

One of the fascinating parts about the book is that, you know, I first read it when probably when it came out in 2011 or 2012 and the parallels between what people were thinking and saying in 1932, we're so close to what people were saying in 2008 and 2009 during that downturn.

也与2020年新冠疫情引发的经济崩溃期间人们的言论极为接近。

And so close to what people were saying in 2020 during the COVID collapse of twenty twenty.

所有这些大规模的行为模式都在不断重复。

It's like all of these big behaviors repeat themselves.

它们随着时间的推移并没有改变。

They don't change over time.

经济状况在变，经济结构在变，但人们所表现出的贪婪、恐惧，以及对未来的过度推演，这些都是人类思维中根深蒂固的部分。

The economic situation changes, the makeup of the economy changes, but the behaviors that people go through of greed and fear and extrapolating what's going on in the future, that's just an innate part of how humans think.

我认为，一百年后这依然会是真实的。

And I think it'll be true a hundred years from now as well.

所以读这本书时，你会不禁感叹：哦，原来九十年前我们经历的就是这些。

So it's fascinating to read it and just say like, oh yeah, that's what we dealt with ninety years later.

你们当年经历的，和我们现在所面对的，完全一模一样。

What you dealt with back then is exactly what we're dealing with today.

但我认为这是一本非常出色的经济学著作。

But I think it's just a it's a wonderful economic book.

是的。

Yeah.

我记得你说过你读过这本书不止两三遍。

I think you said you've read it more than a couple of times.

我明天要出差。

I'm I'm traveling tomorrow.

我立刻把它放进了我的包里。

I immediately put it in my sack.

我明天就开始读。

I'm starting it tomorrow.

我一听到你说起这本书就立刻买了，因为这真的很有道理。

I I bought it immediately when I heard you say that because that makes so much sense.

了解人类行为的方式，就是在它发生的过程中去学习。

That's how you learn about human behavior is as it's as it's happening.

我只是想让你回答个问题。

Just I'm gonna put you on the spot.

除了你刚才提到的日记内容，还有没有什么其他特别让你印象深刻的地方或学到的教训？

Did anything about anything still stand out to you, a lesson learned from other than what you just mentioned from his diary?

比如，我读的时候可以留意些什么。

Like, it's something I can look for as I'm reading it.

确实，有两件事我觉得特别有趣。

There's, yeah, there there's two things that I found really interesting.

一是，在20世纪30年代初，他几乎每篇日记都写：我非常担心恶性通货膨胀。

One is that during the early nineteen thirties, virtually every one of his posts says, I'm so worried about hyperinflation.

我的所有邻居，人人都知道恶性通货膨胀马上就要来了。

All of my neighbors, everyone knows hyperinflation is right around the corner.

我们对此无能为力。

There's nothing we can do about it.

政府印了这么多钱，恶性通货膨胀就要来了。

The government's putting so much money, hyperinflation, here we come.

令人着迷的是，事后看来，我们知道大萧条的真正原因是通缩。

That's what's fascinating is that in hindsight, we knew what actually caused great depression was deflation.

恰恰相反。

It was the exact opposite.

2008年的情况也是如此。

Now that was the exact same in 2008.

2008年，电视上许多聪明人说通货膨胀即将来临，这种说法随处可见。

In 2008, the number of people, smart people on TV who said hyperinflation right around the corner, it's coming was everywhere.

两次都害怕了错误的东西，这一点非常有趣。

Two parallels of fearing the wrong thing, thought was really interesting.

他在1932年还说过一句话：每个人都觉得股票价格是这辈子最划算的买入机会。

The other thing he makes this quote in 1932, where he says, everyone knows that stock prices are the bargain of a lifetime.

每个人都觉得现在的房地产机会好得不得了，但没人有现金去抓住这些机会。

Everyone knows that real estate opportunities are just incredibly good right now, but nobody has any cash to take advantage of it.

哦。

Oh.

我也觉得这个观察非常有趣，因为它恰恰说明了：把现金存在支票账户里到底有什么价值？

I thought that was a really interesting observation too, because it just goes to show like, what is the value of holding cash in your checking account?

并不是为了获得良好的回报。

It's not to earn a good return.

也不是为了那百分之零点五的利息。

It's not to, you know, earn the half a percent interest rate.

现金真正带给你的，是在世界崩盘时的主动权。

What cash gives you is options when the world goes to shit.

这就是它的作用。

That's what it does.

他的例子最为鲜明，但读到这些内容也让我受益匪浅。

And his was the starkest example, but reading that was really informative too.

2008年发生了一件事，我永远都不会忘记，但人们似乎很少谈论它，这件事和现金有关：在2008年之前，人们把现金存在货币市场基金里，结果那些该死的货币市场突然冻结了。

There's something that happened in 2008 that for me, I'll never forget that, really, I don't think people talk that much about it is that it pertains to cash, which is that the way people held cash prior to 2008 was in the money market, and the freaking money markets froze.

它们真的冻结了。

They froze.

没人想过这种情况会发生。

No one ever imagined that could happen.

对我来说，这太令人震惊了。

And to me, that was so stunning.

我很惊讶直到今天人们还很少谈论这件事。

I'm surprised people don't talk more about that to this day.

是的。

Yeah.

自2008年以来，确实有一些监管变化让情况稍有改善，而美联储在2008年也尽其所能来解冻市场，而且很快就解冻了。

There there there have been some regulatory changes since 2008 that should make it a little bit better, and the fed to its credit in 2008 did everything it could to unfreeze it, and they unfroze fairly quickly.

但同样的事情如今正发生在许多加密货币交易所身上，它们在过去几周被关闭或冻结了。

But that same thing is going on today with a lot of crypto exchanges that have been shut down frozen in the last couple of weeks.

人们今天正在重新学习这些教训。

People are relearning those lessons today.

你以为是流动的那些东西，我想他们是在大萧条时期的银行危机中学会了银行那部分吗？

Things things things you think are liquid can I guess they learned the the bank piece of it in the during the bank crisis in the in the thirties?

但货币市场冻结了。

But the the the money market's freezing.

他说，那可是现金。

And he was like, that that was cash.

那本来应该是现金。

That was supposed to be cash.

他们假装那是现金。

They pretended that was cash.

其实不是。

It wasn't.

那只是一个货币市场基金。

It was a money market.

你知道，我们使用的这些系统里藏着很多东西，再次说明了我们害怕错了东西，没看到真正向我们袭来的负债。

You've you've you you know, there there's stuff hidden in these systems we use that that's the again, fearing the wrong stuff, not seeing the the real liabilities that are coming our way.

听好了。

Listen.

我有这么多

I have so

还有另一句引言。

There's one other quote.

有一句

There's one

其他引言

other quote

我想

that I

必须分享，我觉得太棒了。

gotta share that think is so.

请说。

Please.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

还有另一件事。

One other thing.

他有一个记录，我想是在1940年代末，他说：看，大萧条太可怕了。

He he has this, entry, and I think, like, late nineteen forty where he says, look, the great depression was so terrible.

美国人无法想象再发生如此悲惨或如此创伤的事件。

Americans cannot fathom anything that tragic or that traumatic happening again.

我记得读到这段话时，想到那是在珍珠港事件前十二个月。

I remember reading that and thinking that was twelve months before Pearl Harbor.

哦。

Oh.

这充分说明了那一代人所受的创伤和打击有多深。

And just goes to show how scarred and battered that generation was.

不过，我可以想象，有人在2019年12月谈论大衰退时说这样的话，然后突然间，新冠疫情来了。

However, I can imagine somebody saying that in December, you know, 2019 about the great recession and then boom, COVID.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

你知道，是谁，而且again，你要提醒自己，在2019年12月，人们还在那儿预测2020年的经济走向。

It's it's the you know, who and and, again, you get to remind yourself that in in December 2019, people were standing around making economic predictions about 2020.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

这说明了你必须始终为黑天鹅事件留出空间。

That shows you how much how you know, you you you gotta always leave room for the black swan.

黑天鹅事件，是的。

The the black swan Yeah.

它可能随时出现。

Could show up at any time.

你不必为此做计划，但当黑天鹅出现时，也不该感到震惊，因为它们每隔一段时间就不可避免地会发生。

Not that you should plan on a black swan, but you should not be shocked if a black swan emerges because they're inevitable every so often.

听好了。

Listen.

你没有让我们失望，摩根。

You did not disappoint, Morgan.

非常感谢你抽出时间，这么快就来了。

Thank you so much for coming in and coming in so quickly.

我希望我们为你的书做了公正的呈现。

I I hope we did your book justice.

每个人都应该马上去买这本书，《金钱心理学》。

You everyone needs go out and get it right now, the psychology of money.

别只去买那本抑郁日记。

Don't just go out get that depression diary.

去买《金钱心理学》吧。

Go get the psychology of money.

关于财富、贪婪与幸福的永恒教训。

Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, happiness.

给我两分钟，或者一分钟，讲讲人们能从这本书里得到什么。

Give me a a two minute one minute pitch on what people are gonna get out of the book.

我认为你能从这本书中学到的是19个短篇故事。

I think what you'll get out of the book is 19 short stories.

这些章节都很短，因为我不会浪费你的时间；它们通常讲的不是钱或投资，而是展示人们如何思考风险、贪婪和恐惧。

They're short chapters because I don't want to waste your time that tell a story usually has nothing to do with money or investing, but shows how people think about risk and greed and fear.

你将能够 hopefully 理解自己的缺点和不足，以及如何克服它们。

And you'll be able to hopefully understand your own flaws, your own shortcomings, and how to overcome them.

这本书并不是关于你该如何处理你的钱。

Not the the book is not about what to do with your money.

它也不是关于股市下一步会怎么走。

It's not about where the stock market's gonna go next.

它只是教你如何更好地思考贪婪、恐惧和幸福。

It's just about how you can think about greed and fear and happiness in a better way.

希望你能更快乐、更满足于你现有的财富。

The hopefully you can become more happy or more content with the money that you have.

说这本书能帮助我们调整与金钱的关系，并学会让资本主义为你服务，这样准确吗？

Would it be accurate to say modify our relationship with money and learn how to make capitalism work for you?

那怎么样？

How about that?

我喜欢这个说法。

I like that.

我认为如果非要总结一个收获，我希望你能更深入地反思自己与金钱的关系。

I think if there's a if there's a takeaway, I hope you become more introspective about your money

是的。

Yeah.

学会更重视独立，而不是物质财富。

And learn to to value independence over material possessions a little bit greater.

摩根·豪塞尔，morganhousel.com，在Twitter上关注@MorganHousel。

Morgan Housel, Morgan Housel dot com, huusel,@MorganHousel on Twitter.

感谢您莅临。

Thank you, sir, for being here.

谢谢，德鲁。

Thanks, Drew.

我们下次再见。

And we will see you all next time.

如需了解通话时间和主题，请在 Twitter 上关注节目账号：doctor Drew podcast。

For calling times and topics, follow the show on Twitter at doctor Drew podcast.

账号是 d r d r e w podcast。

That's d r d r e w podcast.

本期节目的音乐可在 iTunes 上的《Doctor Drew 播客摇摆之声》中找到。

The music from today's episode can be found on the swinging sounds of the doctor Drew podcast now available on iTunes.

同时，在那里别忘了给节目打分。

And while you're there, don't forget to rate the show.

《Doctor Drew 播客》由 Corolla Digital 制作，由 Chris Laxamana 和 Gary Smith 制作。

The doctor Drew podcast is a Corolla digital production and is produced by Chris Laxamana and Gary Smith.

如需更多信息，请访问 doctordrew.com。

For more information, go to doctordrew.com.

在参与《Doctor Drew 播客》期间所交流的所有对话和信息，仅用于教育和娱乐目的。

All conversation and information exchanged during the participation in the doctor Drew podcast is intended for educational and entertainment purposes only.

请勿将此内容与治疗、医疗建议或指导混淆。

Do not confuse this with treatment or medical advice or direction.

这些播客中的任何内容都不能替代或超越您医疗护理人员的关系与指导。

Nothing on these podcasts supplement or supersede the relationship and direction of your medical caretakers.

尽管Dr. Drew是经美国内科委员会和美国成瘾医学委员会认证的持证医生，但在此环境中他并非以医生身份行事。

Although doctor Drew is a licensed physician with specialty board certifications by the American Board of Internal Medicine and the American Board of Addiction He is not functioning as a physician in this environment.

同样适用于可能出现在播客或doctordrew.com上的任何专业人士。

The same applies to any professionals who may appear on the podcast or doctordrew.com.

在《乔丹·哈宾格秀》中，您将听到那些亲历者讲述的精彩故事，包括滑板传奇人物托尼·霍克如何几乎定义了整个滑板运动。

On the Jordan Harbinger show, you'll hear amazing stories from people that have lived them, including how skating legend Tony Hawk virtually defined the entire sport.

快来收听《乔丹·哈宾格秀》的这段预览。

Check out this preview of the Jordan Harbinger show.

我是在七十年代滑板第一次热潮末期开始接触滑板的。

I picked up skating at the tail end of its first boom in the seventies.

那正是当时的潮流。

That was the trend.

当我发现滑板的无限可能，亲眼看到人们从空游泳池中飞腾而起时，那一刻让我惊叹不已。

And then when I discovered the possibilities and I literally saw people flying out of empty swimming pools, that was my wow moment.

这其中有一种危险的因素。

There was like a danger factor.

还有一种酷炫的气质，我于是全身心投入其中。

There was this edgy factor, and I just devoted myself to it.

我想学会如何飞翔。

I wanna learn how to fly.

我刚开始时最严重的伤之一是脑震荡。

One of my worst injuries in the beginning was I got a concussion.

我把牙齿都撞掉了。

I knocked my teeth out.

当我在滑板公园的商店里醒来时，我就知道我一定要重新回到那里继续滑。

I knew when I woke up in the pro shop of the skate park that I wanted to get back out there and do it.

我真不敢相信还有人认得我。

I can't believe people still recognize me.