Interest rate rises are designed to hurt. But how much is too much?

ABC听播客、广播、新闻、音乐，还有更多内容。

ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more.

为什么人类总是舍不得丢东西？

Why do humans hold on to stuff?

那些我们从不使用，却又怎么也下不了手扔掉的小玩意儿。

Oddments we don't use and yet can't quite throw out.

这不只是你我这样。

It's not just you and me.

澳大利亚最古老的图书馆里，塞满了不是书的杂物。

Australia's oldest library is crammed with stuff that isn't books.

糟糕的画作、老旧的场馆、人的头发。

Terrible paintings, old venues, human hair.

这到底是历史收藏，还是囤积成癖？

Is this history or hoarding?

我是安贝勒·克拉布。

I'm Annabelle Crabbe.

来翻一翻这些物品背后关于我们自己的故事吧。

Come and have a rummage through the story of us told by our stuff.

在ABC Listen或者你常用的播客平台搜索《历史还是囤积》这个节目。

Search for the history or hoarding podcast on ABC Listen or wherever you get your podcasts.

本周，澳洲储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克第三次上调利率——也是燃油价格飙升以来的第二次，她表示，这一决定已经做出。

When Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock increased interest rates this week, for the third time this year and the second time since the explosion in fuel prices, she said she'd done it.

现在先停下来，看看接下来会发生什么。

To give ourselves space now to sit and see what happens.

她需要留出空间，观察通胀是否会失控、加速上升，从而决定是否继续加息；或者如果油价危机可能引发经济衰退，就考虑降息。

She needed space to stand back and assess whether to push up interest rates further if inflation begins to get a life of its own and really take off, or to cut rates if it looks as if the oil crisis will push us into a recession.

她的想法是：

Her thinking

先加息，然后留点余地。

Increase now, and then give yourself space.

她认为，我们能承受这次加息。

She reckons we can cope with this increase.

对我们有些人来说，这个月又要多花一百澳元，再加上二月和三月各自多出的一百，还有油价上涨带来的额外开销。

For some of us, it'll cost an extra $100 a month on top of the extra $100 a month in February, and the extra 100 in March, and the extra in fuel prices.

她这么想对吗？

Is she right?

为什么我们总觉得，接下来还得掏更多钱——要么是利率继续涨，要么是经济下滑得厉害，简直像要陷入衰退？

And why does it feel as if there's every chance we'll be asked to pay even more, either through even higher interest rates or an economic downturn so bad it'll feel like a recession?

米歇尔·布洛克行长心里到底在盘算什么？

What's going on inside governor Michele Bullock's head?

欢迎收听ABC国家广播电台的《经济真傻》，我是彼得·马丁，今天请来了两位央行观察专家——迈克尔·帕斯科和妮基·哈特利。迈克尔长期追踪澳洲各大主流媒体和九号电视网的央行动态，现在供职于Michael West Media；妮基曾任多家机构的高级经济学家和首席经济学家，如今在澳大利亚气候委员会工作。

Welcome to the Economy Stupid on ABC Radio National with me, Peter Martin, and Reserve Bank watchers and Reserve Bank psychologists, in this case, Michael Pascoe, who's kept track of the bank at most of Australia's leading newspapers and the Nine Network and now at Michael West Media, and Nikki Hutley, who's tracked the Reserve Bank as a senior economist and chief economist at all manner of institutions and is now with the Climate Council of Australia.

欢迎回来，迈克尔，妮基，也欢迎你们。

Welcome back, Michael, and welcome back, Nikki.

很高兴能来参加。

A pleasure to be here.

谢谢，彼得。

Thanks, Peter.

妮基，行长说得对吗？澳洲联储认为我们能扛得住，这说法对吗？

Nikki, is the governor right, is the Reserve Bank right that we can cope with this?

我这里说的‘我们能扛得住’，是指整体情况。

Now when I say we can cope with this, I mean in aggregate.

当然，有些人确实撑不住，但也有人受影响不大。

There are some people who won't be able to cope with it, others who will be little affected by it.

联储说，虽然我们在消费者信心调查里都觉得日子很难过。

The bank says that while we say in consumer confidence surveys, we're feeling really bad.

但实际开销还是跟以前差不多，从这些数据来看，似乎大家只是没那么放松了而已。

We're still spending much as we were before and reading between the lines, it seems to be fairly happy if we get a bit less relaxed about spending.

让大家稍微紧张一点，也未必是坏事。

It wouldn't hurt to make us more uneasy.

她说得对吗？

Is she right?

她明显是想让我们感到不安。

Well, she certainly seems to be wanting to make us uneasy.

你知道吗，当你问会不会没事，看看他们的预测，经济增长会放缓到略高于1%，在未来四个季度都维持在1.5%以下。

You know, when you say will it be alright, if you look at their forecasts, they've got growth slowing to just over 1% and staying there below one and a half percent for the next four quarters that they forecast out to.

也就是说，接下来两年，经济几乎没什么增长，她管这叫‘萎靡不振’。

So that's two years of, you know, negligible she called it anemic economic growth.

可这叫萎靡，是因为我们人口还在以1.5%的速度增长。

Well, is anemic because our population's growing 1.5%.

所以按人均收入算，我们其实是在缓慢倒退。

So we're we're in terms of income per person, we're slowly going backwards.

我觉得，这还是他们最乐观的预测了。

That's, I think, on their best case forecast.

没错。

Exactly.

这算是中性预期，或者说是最好的情况。

That's the central case or best case.

前提是，所有人都能顺利回家，海峡在几周内重新开放，接下来几个月一切都能恢复如常。

That's if, you know, everybody packs up, Straits of Home is open within the next few weeks, and everything goes back to hunky dory in the next couple of months.

考虑到我们现在看到的情况，这看起来不太可能。

That seems pretty unlikely given what we're seeing.

但她也提到，有些家庭日子会过得特别艰难。

But she also mentioned that, you know, some households will be doing this very tough.

她谈到了低收入家庭的情况。

She talked about low income households.

还得加上那些收入还在起步阶段、但背负着最大房贷的年轻家庭。

You've got to add to that story younger households who are on the lower part of their income trajectory, but who have the biggest mortgages.

他们的日子会特别难熬。

They're going to be doing it really hard.

任何对劳动力市场依赖度较低的人，都会面临压力，因为失业率的预测还在持续上升。说实话，他们预测的4.7%上限实在太乐观了。

Anyone who's got marginal attachment to the workforce because the forecast for unemployment keep nudging higher, and I think that sort of 4.7% ceiling they've got us getting to is very optimistic, quite honestly.

这形势相当严峻。

It's a pretty dire situation.

我们或许能撑过去，但接下来的几年，日子肯定会很难过。

We might be able to bear it, but boy, you know, it's gonna be a pretty grim couple of years ahead.

问题是，就像上世纪六十年代的民谣乐队说的，储备银行手里只有一把锤子？

Is the problem that, to quote the folk band of the nineteen sixties, the Reserve Bank has a hammer.

它只有一种工具。

It's got one instrument.

这不就是问题所在吗，迈克尔？它非得让一部分人吃点苦头，才能平均地让大家都吃点苦？

Is that the problem, Michael, that it has to clobber some people in order to, on average, clobber people just a bit?

它其实有一把半，或者一又四分之一种工具。

It has one and a half or maybe one and a quarter instruments.

它的工具不止一种。

It's got more than one.

没错。

Yeah.

除了锤子，他们还有根骨头当武器。

Aside from the hammer, they've got the jawbone.

要是能吓住消费者，让他们不敢花钱，那比直接用锤子砸他们还管用。

And if they can scare consumers into shutting their wallets and purses, that's better than actually hitting them with the hammer.

他们往往得两样都用。

They tend to have to do both.

但央行还特别关注通胀预期的稳定，这就意味着得靠吓唬——让我们相信，他们一定会不遗余力地让我们乖乖听话。

But the Reserve Bank also is focused on anchored inflationary expectations, and that does mean using the jawbone, convincing all of us that they will do whatever they have to do to make us behave.

但归根结底，不管是尖端还是钝端，最终还是得靠那把锤子。

But at the sharp end of it all or the blunt end of it all, it does become a matter of the hammer.

央行认为，除了特朗普的战争，我们之前就已经需求过热、供给不足了。

And the Reserve Bank's belief that aside from Trump's war, we already had a bit too much demand and not quite enough supply.

他们总是这么说。

As they always say.

你的意思是，我们那时候太急于花钱了？

You mean by that, that we were a bit too keen to spend.

这都是在战争爆发之前的事。

This is before the war started.

比起企业能提供的东西，我们花钱的劲头实在太大了。

A bit too keen to spend compared to the ability of businesses and whatever to supply things to us.

是的。

Yeah.

通胀确实高于目标，而且一直高于目标。

That inflation, look, it is above and it has been above their target.

它现在是在追赶，就像你开头说的，他们确实想留点余地，因为尽管做了预测，但他们完全不知道特朗普的战争会怎么发展。

It is playing a bit of catch up, and as you said at the start, they do wanna have a little bit of space because despite making forecasts, they know that they have got absolutely no idea what's gonna happen with Trump's war.

那个基础预测——相对乐观的那个——我也同意妮基的看法，其中一些部分确实太乐观了，这个预测完全基于布伦特原油期货交易员的定价，他们假设战争会很快平息，油价会回落。

And that base forecast, the relatively optimistic one, and I agree with Nikki, some parts of it are definitely optimistic, that base forecast is entirely based on Brent crude futures traders who have priced in the war reaching a degree of calm fairly quickly and oil prices coming down.

布伦特原油就是油，顺便说一下，我们这一带用的就是这种油。

Brent is oil, by the way, the kind of oil that we use in this part of the world.

对。

Yeah.

如果有人真觉得期货交易员能预知未来，那我这儿还有座海港大桥可以卖给你。

And if anyone thinks that futures traders really know what's gonna happen in the future, I do have a harbor bridge to sell you.

行长和央行还考虑了另外两种情景。

The governor and the bank did include two other scenarios.

那是更糟糕的情景。

They're worse scenarios.

油价没有回落到每桶100美元以下。

They're the oil price not falling back below 100 US dollars a barrel.

最糟的那种，迈克尔，我该怎么说呢？

The worst of them, Michael, how can I put this?

这已经不是疲软了。

It's worse than anemic.

情况糟透了。

It is so bad.

那绝对是史上最糟的。

It would easily be the worst.

事实上，我觉得他们主推的预测已经是迄今为止最悲观的了。

In fact, I think even their main forecast is the worst they've published so far.

它还假设经济会增长。

It has economic growth.

他们主要预测的经济增长率原本是1.3%到1.4%。

It was gonna be 1.3, 1.4% in their main forecast.

现在却比那个低了0.8%。

It has a 0.8% below that.

我算一下，这到底是多少？

Now, on my maths, what's that?

大概就是0.6%或者0.5%。

That's about 0.6 or 0.5%.

这几乎等于零增长了，这么低的水平，明显就是在说经济衰退了。

That is about no economic growth and you would have to say that when you get that low, you are seriously talking about a recession.

用锤子敲东西的时候，可没法精细调整。

Don't when you're using a hammer, you don't have fine tuning.

按这些数字，再加上他们提到的其他几种情景，失业率会超过5%。

And with those numbers and on those other couple of scenarios they threw in, you've got unemployment above 5%.

央行一直说，失业率4.3%已经连续一年稳定了，从历史角度看算是很低了。

And the Reserve Bank always uses the line, and it did on Tuesday in the statement on monetary policy, that unemployment at 4.3 had been basically steady for a year and is low in historical terms.

我想问的是，他们说的是现代的情况，还是很久以前的事了？

And my question is, well, are they talking modern history or ancient history?

因为失业率现在都维持在4%左右，快五年了。

Because unemployment has been around 4% now for four and a half going on five years.

他们什么时候才能承认，4%左右的失业率现在已经成了新常态？

When are they going to accept that unemployment of about 4% is now our normal standard.

妮基，央行有个平衡任务，叫双重目标。

Nikki, the bank has a balancing act called the dual mandate.

它必须同时关注通胀和失业率，不能让任何一个失控。

It's required to consider both inflation and unemployment, not to let either get too much out of hand.

虽然预测两者都会上升，但行长明确说，目前她最优先处理的是通胀。

It's forecasting increases in both, yet the governor said that right now, one of them, inflation, is her top priority.

这并不是说两者要同等对待。

It is not a question of treating each as equally important.

我们也不希望失业率或就业增长再进一步下滑，除非别无选择。

We would rather not have unemployment or employment slow any more than it has to.

这确实是其中一部分，但我们得根据风险所在及时调整策略。

That's still part of it, but we do have to pivot depending on where we think the risks are lying.

她的意思是，目前她最担心的是通胀，至于失业率上升，她没那么在意，是这样吗？

Is she saying there in that pivot that right at the moment, inflation is the thing she's worried about most, and she doesn't mind that much if unemployment climbs.

这说法有点牵强了。

It's a bit of a long bow.

她在记者会上其实明确说过，她也担心失业问题，这很正常，但眼下通胀比失业更关键。

She did actually say at the press conference that, she was worried about unemployment, and she would be naturally, but inflation's a bit more important than unemployment at the moment.

不管怎么选，央行都会挨骂。

Look, the Reserve Bank is going to lose out whatever it does.

我们都知道，货币政策就像一把大锤，不够精细。

We all know monetary policy is a blunt instrument.

这话我们已经说过一百遍了。

We've said it a 100 times.

它就是一把锤子。

It's the hammer.

他们除了嘴上说说，也没别的招了，迈克尔说得对，就是靠言语施压。

It is all that they have apart from, you know, Michael's right, the jawboning.

他们能让我们感到恐慌，说实话，那场记者会真给我一种震撼感。

They can make us feel scared, and certainly, I felt that press conference really was a bit of shock and awe.

让我觉得不安的是，他们对经济前景的措辞竟如此悲观。

It was it was alarming to me the degree to which the language was so pessimistic about the outlook.

说到就业，那份附在决议后面的75页声明，看起来像是在说我们就业过度了。

Well, on employment, the the statement, the 75 page statement that came with the decision seemed to suggest that we have too much employment.

它提到——我原话引用——联储使用的多个经济模型都表明，当前劳动力市场比充分就业还要紧张。

It said, and I quote, that all of its models, the Reserve Bank uses a number of economic models, suggest that conditions are tighter than full employment.

这在我听来，意思是我们就业人数太多，长期来看不可持续，所以失业率得往上走。

That seems to read to me as if we've got too much employment, too many people are in jobs for it to be sustainable long term or for our view of it being sustainable long term, and unemployment needs to climb.

迈克尔，你是这么理解的吗？

Is that how you read it, Michael?

彼得，联储这么用‘充分就业’这个词，简直是在胡扯。

Peter, this is the Mickey Mouse use of that term full employment by the Reserve Bank.

这跟一般人理解的意思根本不一样。

It doesn't mean what someone would think it means.

有人可能会觉得，充分就业就是每个想找工作的人都能找到工作。

Someone might think full employment meant everyone who wants a job having a job.

对澳洲央行来说，他们怎么都能赢，因为他们定义的充分就业，就是通胀处于理想水平时的失业率。

Well, for the Reserve Bank, they always win on this because their idea of full employment is whatever the unemployment rate is when inflation is where it should be.

所以尽管他们说更侧重于使命的某一方面。

So while they say they focus a bit more on one side of the mandate than the other

目前就是这样。

At the moment.

但他们还是坚持说，只要通胀达到他们想要的水平，那时候的失业率就是充分就业。

They are still saying that, you know, they still will be claiming full employment is what it is when we've got inflation where we want it to be.

这事跟我们有关系吗，妮基？

Are we responsible for this, Nikki?

我这么说是因为，就在央行发布声明的时候，数据显示，即使经历了油价冲击，我们的支出依然保持得不错。

I say that because figures came out as the Reserve Bank released a statement showing that our spending has held up pretty well even after the oil shock.

失业率确实还维持在百分之四出头。

And certainly, unemployment remains, you know, in the low fours.

目前离百分之五还远着呢，不过央行可能觉得咱们消费得太嗨了。

It's certainly nowhere near five at the moment that we've been partying a bit too much for the Reserve Bank.

是的。

Yeah.

不过我不太愿意用‘狂欢’这个词。

Well, I don't know if I'd call it partying.

实际上，三月份家庭支出比去年同期高出百分之二点八，这个增长幅度算是相当稳健了。

I mean, in real terms, household spending in the March was 2.8% higher than a year earlier, and that's a reasonable level of growth.

当然不是失控的那种，但这是截至三月的三个月数据。

It's not certainly not runaway, but that's over the three months to the March.

这算是战争的开端了。

So that's the start of the war.

我觉得这场战争拖得越久，油价持续高位的时间就越长，每个月多花一百美元，对不少人来说可不是小数目。

I think the longer it goes on, the longer we have these elevated petrol prices, A $100 a month is a lot for some people.

对很多人来说，这是一笔不小的开销。

A lot for many people.

再乘以三，你想想看。

And you multiply that times three.

我们怎么可能还没感受到压力呢？

How could we not already be feeling the pain?

不过，这些影响需要时间才能慢慢体现出来。

These things take time to feed through though.

我们不会一夜之间就做出反应。

We don't react overnight.

我们会坐下来，仔细算算家里的账，想想该怎么应对。

We sit and we ponder and we plot our family budgets and we work out, well, how am I going to manage this?

哪些地方可以调整？

What can I change?

霍尔木兹海峡的危机拖得越久，家庭面临的抉择就越艰难。

And the longer the crisis in the Strait Of Hormuz goes on, the tougher the decisions facing households.

迈克尔，说到抑制通胀以及由此带来的阵痛，我觉得这位行长的态度有些矛盾。

Michael, when it comes to restraining inflation, to the pain of doing that, the governor seemed to me to be two headed.

一方面，她说企业应该把成本上涨转嫁给消费者。

On one hand, she said businesses should pass on their increased costs.

我想说得清楚一点。

I wanna be absolutely clear.

我并不是说企业不该转嫁成本。

I'm not saying that businesses shouldn't pass on costs.

我认为他们这么做是合理的。

I think it's reasonable that they should be doing so.

我们真正担心的是，一旦新价格水平确立了，人们就会觉得，哦，物价每年涨个四到五百分比很正常。

What we're trying to guard against is that once those new price levels are achieved, that people don't think, oh, well, it's normal for things to go up by four or 5%.

以后就一直这么涨下去了。

We'll just continue to do that.

但当谈到工人通过加薪来转嫁成本时，她就显得不那么宽容了。

But when it came to workers passing on increased costs through wage increases, she seemed less accommodating.

是的。

Yes.

我完全预料到人们会试图提高实际工资。

I fully expect that people will try to make up their wages, real wages.

不过我要强调的是，这场冲突带来的冲击让我们变得更穷了。

The only point I would make though is that this shock from the conflict makes us poorer.

我完全预料到这种情况会发生，但我并不希望这种心态在未来几年里成为根深蒂固的预期。

I fully expect that that's what will happen, but what I don't want is for it to become ingrained in expectations going forward years.

迈克尔，我是不是察觉到你在用词上有些不同？

Am I right to detect a difference in language there, Michael?

企业可以把成本上涨转嫁出去。

Businesses pass on your cost increases.

这个我们明白。

We understand that.

对于工人来说，最好别要求太多。

Workers, it'd be best if you didn't ask for too much.

彼得，我觉得你说得对。

Peter, I think you're right.

确实有一种观念，认为企业优先，从宏观经济角度看也能理解，但我觉得企业也理应分担一部分负担。

I think there is, an attitude that, business comes first, and you can understand that from a macroeconomic point of view, but I think it's also totally reasonable to expect businesses to share the burden.

澳洲联储预测工资价格指数将维持在3.2%。

The RBA is forecasting the wage price index to be stuck on 3.2%.

你给我看看工资增长有任何抬头的迹象吗？

Show me any sign of an outbreak in wages growth.

根本没发生。

It hasn't happened.

虽然工人可能在要求加薪，但我觉得他们并没有多少议价能力。

And while workers might be asking for more money, I don't think they've got much bargaining power.

我看到有报纸报道，工会组织——澳洲工会理事会——提出了5%的加薪要求。

I saw one of the newspapers reported that the trade union movement, the ACTU, has asked for an increase of 5%.

他们总是要得比能拿到的多。

They always ask for more than they'll get.

雇主也总是开价比最终实际给的要低。

Same as employers always offer less than they'll get in wage cases.

我没从那里面看出太多东西。

I didn't take a lot from that.

如果真是5%，那大概也就刚跟通胀持平吧。

And of course, if it was 5%, I guess it would only be about inflation.

这是个问题吗，妮基？

Is it, Nikki, a question?

行长说会有人受苦，他说得对吗？

Is the governor right here that there will be pain?

确实有痛苦。

There is pain.

早就已经出现痛苦了。

There has been pain.

关键在于痛苦落在了谁身上。现在我们看到的，是资本与劳动之间的博弈，是代际之间的冲突——你们这一代和你们孩子那一代。

It's a question of where it spread and what we're looking now is a battle between capital and labor, between generations, your generation and your children's generation.

这本质上是个谈判问题。

It's really a question of bargaining.

总得有人承担我们分摊成本的后果。

Someone has to suffer the extent to which we spread it round.

显然，低收入家庭最吃力，尤其是那些房贷压力大、收入又低的人。

Obviously, low income households are the ones that are going to be tough, those with the biggest mortgages and, you know, smaller incomes to pay for it.

所以，这笔负担根本不可能平均分摊。

So we're not going to bear this equally at all.

我觉得，昨天州长是预期第一年工资涨幅可能会稍高一点，作为对冲击的回应。

I do think that the governor yesterday was expecting that wage increases might be a little bit higher in the first year of, you know, responding to the shock.

但她也提到了疫情后的情况，那时候企业谈判协议的涨幅大概就是3%、4%这样，持续了三年。

But she also pointed to post COVID when we had three year enterprise bargaining agreements that might have been, you know, 4%, 3%, 3%.

她说，一年内工资稍高一点，或者企业成本略微上升，她都能接受。

And she was saying she could live with one year of slightly higher wages or business increasing costs.

她在记者会上强调的一个关键点是：我们不能助长更高的通胀预期，不管是企业转嫁成本，还是个人要求加薪。

What she is trying to get across one of the important points that she made at the press conference was that we can't build higher inflationary expectations, whether that's businesses passing on those costs or whether it's individuals asking for more wages.

已经有迹象表明，一些公司不得不给员工增加交通补贴，因为工作必须开车。

There is already evidence that some companies are having to give their employees a bit of a lift in their their budgets because they have to drive a car for their work.

但这可不是什么狂欢派对。

But we're not it's not like there's a party anywhere.

对很多人来说，日子确实很难熬。

It is tough for people.

说只要没陷入衰退就不算难，这完全抓不住重点。

And to suggest that just because we're not in a recession, it's not tough is missing the point.

我很喜欢‘氛围感’这个说法。

I love the expression, the vibe session.

这算不上真正的衰退，但感觉上就跟衰退一模一样，不管澳大利亚统计局怎么说家庭支出或失业率。

It's not an actual recession, but it's got the vibe of one, irrespective of what, you know, the Australian Bureau statistics is telling us about household spending or unemployment rates.

我们正在探讨澳洲联储的心理，以及我们自己在国家广播电台《经济傻瓜》节目里的心理，我是彼得·马丁。

We're trying to examine the psychology of the Reserve Bank and the psychology of us on The Economy Stupid on Radio National with me, Peter Martin.

本周我们邀请了澳洲联储观察员迈克尔·帕斯科和妮基·哈特利一起讨论。

This week joined by Reserve Bank watchers, Michael Pascoe and Nikki Hutley.

尼基，银行在五月第一个星期二做出决定后，联邦预算将在五月第二个星期二公布。

Nikki, following the bank's decision on the first Tuesday in May comes the Commonwealth budget on the second Tuesday in May.

顺便说一句，祝你周末母亲节快乐。

Happy Mother's Day for the weekend by the way.

关于预算，我们最近听到一个新说法，就是可能用某种新措施来替代那项临时的燃油消费税减免。

And one of the things that we're hearing about the budget, one of the new things we're hearing is talk of what might be a replacement for that temporary cut in the the petrol and diesel excise.

这是一项为期一年的临时收入抵免，通过税制每两周发放一笔现金补贴。

It's a temporary one year earned income offset, a cash handout through the tax system every fortnight.

我们还不知道政府会不会采取这项措施。

We don't know if the government will do it.

但如果真的实施，比起直接降低燃油税来减轻油价压力，这种方式会不会更有效地帮助那些受高油价困扰的人呢？

But if it does, would that be a better way of supporting people hurt by high fuel prices than cutting the fuel excise, cutting those high fuel prices?

彼得，我先以气候委员会成员的身份说几句。

Well, I'm gonna put my climate council hat on here for a second, Peter.

希望你和听众们能体谅我一下，总的来说，降低燃油税并没有多大帮助。

I hope you and your listeners will forgive me, and say that a cut in the fuel excise is not that helpful, broadly speaking.

当然，谁都喜欢油价低一点。

Obviously, everybody appreciates lower petrol prices.

但我们得想想更大的目标，因为澳大利亚有减排目标，我们真正需要的是让人少开车、多开电动车。

But if we think about the broader objective because Australia has targets that we have to meet for emissions reduction, we wanna do things that are actually going to get people driving their cars less and driving electric vehicles more.

现在政府已经在做一些相关的事了。

Now they're doing some things there.

地方政府也在增加基础设施建设，来支持这个转变。

Also, governments putting in local governments putting in more infrastructure to help with that.

电动车现在卖得特别火。

EVs are flying off the shelf.

我们可不希望打断这个趋势。

We don't actually want to be stopping that.

所以如果政府真这么干，就是直接给钱，让人自己安排使用。

So the idea would be, if the government did this, give people money and they can use it.

这笔钱随时可用，哪怕你已经不再用汽油车了——这其实现在正是件好事。

It's available, even if they move away from petrol, which by the way, would be a helpful thing at the moment.

这会是非常有帮助的。

It would be an incredibly helpful thing.

我们希望每个人都能这么做。

We we want everybody to do that.

我们要确保人们做出明智的选择。

We want to be making sure that people make sensible decisions.

我在考虑给家庭提供多少补贴时会非常谨慎，因为你不想抵消澳洲储备银行的努力。

I'd be being very careful about balancing how much we give to households because you don't wanna undo the work of the RBA.

但同时，你也得承认，眼下民众确实过得不容易，这是政治上的现实。

But you also do want to take account of the fact that the political imperative that people are doing it tough.

现在这个时期真的非常艰难，我不会轻视这个问题——坐在这里批评别人当然容易，但我清楚，要在这中间找到平衡真的很难。

So this is a really, really difficult time, and I don't wanna make light of the fact it's easy to sit here and be an armchair critic of what's being done, but I do acknowledge that it is very tricky to get this balance right.

家庭当然希望得到更多支持，但我们必须留意帮助的力度，别因为出手太重，反而逼得储备银行更快更猛地上调利率。

Households obviously want more, but we need to be mindful about how far we go in helping households because you don't want to undo what the Reserve Bank is trying to do and make them go even harder and faster on rates as a result.

迈克尔，就在两周前，复活节前夕，政府按要求低调发布了经济包容咨询委员会的预算前报告。

Michael, a fortnight ago, on the eve of ANZAC Day as it happened, the government quietly released, as it's required to, the pre budget report of the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee.

这份报告建议为最需要帮助的人提供补偿。

This advises on compensation for people who need it the most.

它再次紧急建议大幅提高求职者津贴和青年津贴，让它们重新接近曾经的养老金水平。

It recommended again, as a matter of urgency, a big increase in job seeker, youth allowance, and so on to move them closer to the age pension where they once were.

这些调整会分几年逐步实施。

It'd be staged over a few years.

它还建议进一步提高租房补贴，因为目前的金额远低于实际租金水平。

It recommended a further increase in common north rent assistance, which remains well below what's needed to take account of most actual rents.

我不确定政府是不是故意选在澳新军团日前夕低调发布这份报告。

I don't know whether the government intended to bury this on the eve of Anzac Day.

但我清楚，按规定他们必须在预算案前两周公布它。

I do know it was required to release it a fortnight before the budget.

如果现在都不是帮助受苦人群的好时机，那什么时候才是？

If now isn't a good time to help people who are hurting, when is?

彼得，你一向温和，觉得这份报告未必是被刻意压着没发布。

Peter, you're a gentle soul, suggesting that it wasn't necessarily buried.

这明显是被压下去了。

Of course it was buried.

因为整个政治讨论和主流媒体的基调都是政府得省钱。

Because the whole tone of the political debate and mainstream media is government's gotta spend less.

我们还看到央行也多少接受了这种想法，希望政府少干预，以缓解通胀压力。

And we saw the Reserve Bank buying into that a bit, you know, wanting the government to do less to ease inflationary pressure.

所以这时候冒出一份报告，主张大笔支出——

So to have this report wanting big spending right now

给那些眼下最需要帮助的人。

To people who need it right now.

给那些眼下最需要帮助的人。

To people who need it right now.

其实我倒觉得应该换个说法。

See, I'd I would almost turn it around the other way.

与其说现在是出手相助的好时机，不如说，当初政府没这么被动的时候，才是更好的出手时机。

Rather than saying people who need it right now, this is a good time to do it, would have been a better time to do it when the government wasn't in as much of a bind as it is now.

是的。

Yeah.

但真正奇怪的是，疫情刚爆发、情况最糟糕的时候，政府反而把求职者补贴翻了一倍。

But what's really strange about that is that when things were really bad, atrociously bad, at the outset of COVID, the government doubled JobSeeker.

所以我们现在遇到这种状况：经济好的时候才是加薪的最佳时机。

So we got this sort of situation where the best time to increase JobSeeker is when things are going well.

情况越糟，反而不该动，可要是糟到极点，又得赶紧动手。

It's not good to do it when things are looking bad, but if things look really bad, do it.

这不荒唐吗？

Is this strange or what?

当时那种情况太灾难了，他们以为马上就要坠入地狱，所以货币政策、财政政策全乱了套。

Well, that was a catastrophic situation when they they were looking into a pit that they assumed was going to be hell, and therefore, it was throwing everything out of monetary policy, fiscal policy.

所有的理性都抛到脑后了。

All reasoning went out of the window.

有些举措确实不错，比如暂时把求职者补贴翻倍，但当时也做了不少蠢事。

Some good stuff was done, doubling JobSeeker, obviously, for a while was good, but there was also a lot of dumb stuff done.

你知道吗，给建筑商的补贴简直是荒唐的政策。

You know, homebuilder was an appalling policy.

给那些根本没亏钱的公司无条件发补贴，这做法太离谱了。

Having no clawback on gifts to companies that weren't losing any money, was appalling.

但那时候他们真觉得天要塌了，灾难就要来了。

But at the time, they thought all hell really was about to break loose.

所以我觉得这情况不能跟现在相提并论。

So I think you can't compare that with this.

那我倒是想问，妮基，是不是非得等情况彻底崩盘，才会认真提高求职津贴？毕竟委员会也说，现在的金额根本不够人活下去。

Well, I guess I'm asking, will all hell have to break loose, Nikki, in order to seriously increase JobSeeker, which is the level according to the committee that people really can't live on.

是的。

Yeah.

我以前在德勤经济咨询部工作的时候，无论是疫情前还是刚爆发时，都专门研究过提高求职津贴的问题。虽然我们没像这份报告建议的那么激进，但至少想把它提升到贫困线水平。

So so work I did with Deloitte Access Economics back when I was there, both just pre COVID and at the start of COVID, looked exactly at the issue of what raising JobSeeker and we weren't looking to the extent that this report is recommending, but at least trying to get it back up to where the poverty line is.

研究显示，低收入家庭的消费倾向非常高，他们手头的钱根本不够维持基本生活。

It does show that because low income households have a very high propensity to spend, they don't have enough to get by.

如果你给低收入家庭多一点钱，他们就会多买点水果放在桌上。

So if you give low income households a little bit more, they're gonna buy a bit of extra fruit on the table.

他们会把钱花出去的。

They're gonna spend it.

所以，具体能拉动多少经济，要看给多少，但确实能刺激经济，这也是为什么疫情期间这么做是明智的。

And so it does have depending on how much you give people, it does lift the economy and which is why it was a good idea during COVID.

当然，如果你担心通胀，想控制支出，那确实得考虑时机。

Obviously, if you're trying to restrain spending because you're concerned about inflation, you do worry about the timing.

但你跟一个生活在贫困线以下的家庭说：‘不好意思，现在不能加钱。’

But you tell a household who's living below the poverty line, oh, sorry.

‘因为我们有点担心那边的情况。’

You can't just have this at the moment because, hey, we're a bit worried about this over here.

我的意思是，拜托，我这话都说到这份上了。

I mean, for goodness sake, you know, let's I'm gonna go there.

我都把海豚保护的预算砍了，你懂吧？

I just cut the orcas budget, you know?

其实，我们完全可以在其他地方找到这笔钱。

I mean, there are areas where we could find this money.

嘿，我有个大胆的想法。

Hey, how about a this is a radical idea.

对石油收入征收百分之二十五的税。

A 25% gas revenue tax.

如果我们愿意动脑筋，办法总归是有的，该做的事总能办到。

Anyway, if we wanna be creative, we can find the means to do what is necessary.

让我难以接受的是，澳大利亚明明是全球最富裕的国家之一，我们这么多人过着体面的生活，却眼睁睁看着那么多同胞生活在贫困线以下，尤其是单收入家庭、老年家庭，而老年女性更是 homelessness 增长最快的人群。

It is appalling to me that Australia, one of the wealthiest countries in the world, where so many of us are privileged to enjoy a decent living standard, sit by and watch so many of our citizens live below the poverty line, particularly single income households, older households, older women are the fastest growing cohort of homeless.

这简直不可容忍。

It's unconscionable.

对不起，我有点激动了。

I'm sorry.

看得出来，我对这事真的特别在意。

You can tell I'm getting quite worked up about this.

但人们就是坐在那儿说，哎，这事跟我没关系，我不操心。

But how can we, you know, people sit there and go, well, I'm not gonna worry about that.

政府也说，这事儿跟选举没关系。

And the government says, well, it's not an election issue.

可事实上，这明明就该是头等大事。

Unfortunately, damn well should be.

我们都该有点良知才对。

We should all have a better conscience.

这话我完全同意。

Amen to that.

这不只是那些大动作，比如第四年把求职者津贴提到养老金的90%这种 headline 事。

And it's not just the big ticket item, you know, the headline of lifting JobSeeker to 90% of the age pension in year four.

那份报告里还有其他内容，也让我气得不行。

There are other aspects of that report that begin to get my blood boiling as well.

有人想改革残障津贴，让找到工作的人还能保留一部分补贴。

There is a want to reform the Disability Support Pension to let people who find work keep some.

澳大利亚一个广为流传的谎言是，那些月收入只有几百澳元的人面临着极高的边际税率。

One of the great lies told in Australia is that people earning a couple $100 have got this terribly high marginal tax rate.

这完全是胡说八道。

It's nonsense.

实际上只是42%的税率，再加上医疗保险附加费。

It's only 42% plus the Medicare levy.

而那些靠政府救济、偶尔打零工赚点最低工资的人，他们的实际边际税率却高达90%甚至更高。

Someone who is on government support, pulling a day or two on the minimum wage, they had an effective marginal tax rate of 90% and more.

有些措施其实非常合理、合情合理，也有人情味，能真正改善那些拼命挣扎求生的人的处境。

There are things that can be done that are just rational and reasonable and humane that would actually improve the outlook for people who are working very hard to try to stay alive.

还有另一件事，彼得，我又得说回老话题了——报告建议进一步提高联邦租房补贴，也就是进一步补贴私人房东。

The other one, Peter, and I'll be back on a hobby horse, there was a recommendation to further increase the Commonwealth rent assistance, meaning further increase the subsidization of private landlords.

目前有140万户家庭在领取租房补贴。

1,400,000 households are getting CRA.

我们现在每年花60亿澳元，明年还会花更多，去补贴那些本不该挤进私人租房市场的房东。因为无论是联邦还是各州政府，都放弃了公共住房建设，把人逼进了这个彻底崩溃的市场，而我们今天正在为这一切付出社会和经济上的代价。

We're blowing $6,000,000,000 at the moment, and we will be blowing more in the new financial year to subsidize private landlords, people who should not be in the private rental market because governments of both color and at state and federal level have walked away from public housing, have forced people into a market that is absolutely broken, and we are paying for it now, socially and otherwise.

周三的《悉尼晨锋报》报道了一则新闻：一名37岁的孕妇住在瓦加瓦加郊外河岸边的帐篷里，临产时生下一对双胞胎，其中一个女孩夭折了。

The Sydney Morning Herald on Wednesday had a headline story about a 37 year old woman living in a tent by a riverbank outside Wagga, pregnant with twins, went into labor, one of the girls died.

目前有700人排着队，等着在瓦加瓦加获得住房。

There are 700 people on a housing waiting list to try to live in Wagga.

这个排队名单已经拖了好几年。

The waiting list is years long.

这只是其中一个地区小城的情况。

That's one regional town.

我们正面临一场持续被忽视的住房危机，政府却总在宣布一些敷衍了事的半吊子措施，自吹自擂说在行动，可实际上，除非政府真正重新投入公共住房建设，否则根本没在解决问题。

We have a housing crisis that continues to be swept under the carpet with nonsense half measures announced, and governments beat themselves in the chest and claim they're doing something, when the reality is they're not doing anything unless they get back seriously into providing public housing directly.

而眼下，储备银行的预测正给我们敲响警钟。

And there's an opportunity here knocking on the door in the Reserve Bank's forecast.

在货币政策声明中，有一项令人担忧的预测被忽略了：未来一年住宅投资将放缓，再下一年更将下滑1.1%。

One of the worrying things that was skipped over in the statement of monetary policy is the forecast that dwelling investment is going to slow from this year to next year, and to be negative 1.1% in the financial year after next.

我们正身处住房危机之中。

So here we are with the housing crisis.

储备银行自己都说，住房投资反而要缩水，可我们明明缺房，还有人住在河边的帐篷里受苦。

Here's the Reserve Bank saying we're actually gonna have a shrinkage of our housing investment when we are short of housing, when there are people in dire straits in tents.

迈克尔，你的意思是政府该提供这些保障。

Michael, you're suggesting that government provides things.

是的。

Yes.

我知道。

I know.

这想法可真够激进的。

Radical idea.

我知道。

I know.

行吧，等革命来了再说吧。

Look, come the revolution.

在你们各位离开之前，照例说两句。

Before before each of you go, as is traditional.

接下来几天几周里，有什么值得关注的吗？

Anything to look out for in the days and weeks ahead.

我觉得我们都知道关键点在哪里了，妮基。

I think we know the main thing, Nikki.

很明显，最重要的就是，这个南瓜人接下来又要对我们做什么？

Well, obviously, the main thing, you know, what is Pumpkin Man going to do to us next?

但从经济学家的角度来看，我们所有人都在等，心里只有一个词：不确定，不确定，还是不确定。

But obviously, from an economist point of view, we're all sitting here going uncertain, uncertain, uncertain, and just having to sit and wait.

但在一片悲观之中，我想以一点希望来收尾。

But amidst the gloom and doom, I would like to finish on a note of hope.

这个周五是大卫·阿滕伯勒爵士的百岁生日。

This Friday is sir David Attenborough's hundredth birthday.

他是我绝对的偶像，我想祝他生日快乐，幸福满满。

He is my absolute hero, and I would like to wish him the happiest of birthdays.

也提醒所有听众，别忘了你身边自然世界的美丽。

And to all listeners, remember how beautiful the natural world around you is.

迈克尔，有什么需要留意的吗？

Michael, anything to look out for?

当然了，关键在周二的预算案。

It is, of course, at the budget on Tuesday.

吉姆·查默斯真会迎难而上吗？

Will Jim Chalmers actually seize the nettle?

胆小的托尼·阿尔巴尼斯会退缩吗？

Will timid Tony Albanese step back?

你根本不用当个老资格的怀疑论者，就能看出这阵子到处都是话术、泄密、暗示和点头，把本来没多少内容的资本利得税和负扣减政策吹得天花乱坠。

Because you don't have to be an old professional skeptic to think that there's been a lot of spinning, a lot of leaking, winking, and nodding to try to make a lot out of not all that much on capital gains tax and negative gearing.

所以我得去堪培拉，看看具体到底写了什么。

So I am off to Canberra to see what's in the detail.

《芬恩评论》上菲爾·柯里写了一篇精彩的文章，说这个政府是靠潜移默化来改变的。

There was a fine piece by Phil Currie in the Finn Review that this is a government that does change by osmosis.

让别人先推政策，等公众真想要了，它才跟着行动。

Lets other people sell a policy, and when the public wants it, it then delivers it.

别给我压力。

Pressure me.

多来游说我吧。

Lobby me.

而不是由政府领导直接说：这就是国家需要的。

As opposed to government by leadership saying this is what the country needs.

这是一项政策。

Here's a policy.

我要去推广它。

I'm gonna sell it.

感谢迈克尔·帕斯科，感谢你作为财经编辑、商业记者，多年来对储备银行的深入观察。

Thank you, Michael Pascoe, finance editor, business journalist, and reserve bank watcher for some years now.

还有妮基·哈特利，独立咨询经济学家，正如我们刚才听到的，她现在也加入了气候委员会。

And Nikki Huttley, independent consulting economist, also now as we heard with the climate council.

非常感谢你们两位。

Thank you both so much.

不客气。

Pleasure.

谢谢，彼得。

Thanks, Peter.

感谢您的收听。

And thank you for listening.

我们的节目可以在ABC Listen应用或ABC国家广播电台每周四收听。

You can find our episodes on the ABC Listen app or on ABC Radio National Thursdays.

如果您有任何想法、问题或评论，任何经济问题都不算愚蠢，欢迎给我们发邮件。

If you've any thoughts or questions or comments, no economic question is stupid, email us.

您已经可以发送到 theeconomy.stupid@abc.net.au。

You've been doing that at theeconomy.stupid@abc.net.au.

距离预算公布还有五天。

Five sleeps until budget nine.

感谢制作人萨姆·卡莫迪。

Thanks to producer Sam Carmody.